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2025 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Kairat

59 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Yelimay

9.48 points above expected

48 points · 38.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Turan

8.86 points below expected

16 points · 24.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kairat 26 18 5 3 59 53 19 +34 49.90 +9.10
2 Astana 26 17 6 3 57 66 30 +36 50.09 +6.91
3 Tobol 26 16 6 4 54 45 25 +20 47.56 +6.44
4 Yelimay 26 14 6 6 48 47 31 +16 38.52 +9.48
5 Aktobe 26 13 4 9 43 39 29 +10 44.85 -1.85
6 Zhenis 26 8 12 6 36 37 30 +7 33.55 +2.45
7 Ordabasy 26 9 8 9 35 37 28 +9 40.43 -5.43
8 Okzhetpes 26 10 5 11 35 34 43 -9 35.73 -0.73
9 Kyzylzhar 26 6 9 11 27 25 32 -7 31.51 -4.51
10 Ulytau 26 5 8 13 23 20 41 -21 18.92 +4.08
11 Kaisar 26 3 13 10 22 24 42 -18 29.69 -7.69
12 Zhetysu 26 4 9 13 21 19 40 -21 25.67 -4.67
13 Atyrau 26 4 7 15 19 22 45 -23 25.52 -6.52
14 Turan 26 4 4 18 16 25 58 -33 24.86 -8.86

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Yelimay 48 38.52 +9.48
2 Kairat 59 49.90 +9.10
3 Astana 57 50.09 +6.91
4 Tobol 54 47.56 +6.44
5 Ulytau 23 18.92 +4.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Turan 16 24.86 -8.86
2 Kaisar 22 29.69 -7.69
3 Atyrau 19 25.52 -6.52
4 Ordabasy 35 40.43 -5.43
5 Zhetysu 21 25.67 -4.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ulytau 3 May 24 – Jun 14 1 in 306
2 Atyrau 2 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 34
3 Astana 5 May 18 – Jun 22 1 in 24
4 Tobol 4 May 4 – May 30 1 in 23
5 Aktobe 5 Apr 26 – May 17 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Turan 11 May 18 – Aug 3 1 in 3,144
2 Atyrau 9 Mar 8 – May 10 1 in 1,001
3 Kyzylzhar 3 Jul 20 – Aug 2 1 in 45
4 Okzhetpes 5 Aug 17 – Oct 19 1 in 41
5 Kairat 2 May 18 – May 24 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atyrau 8 Jul 20 – Oct 18 1 in 398
2 Zhenis 11 May 30 – Aug 23 1 in 199
3 Yelimay 9 Jul 26 – Oct 26 1 in 33
4 Ulytau 4 May 24 – Jun 22 1 in 31
5 Zhetysu 4 May 17 – Jun 14 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atyrau 16 Mar 8 – Jul 5 1 in 107
2 Zhenis 11 Mar 2 – May 30 1 in 37
3 Turan 12 May 18 – Aug 9 1 in 25
4 Zhetysu 9 Mar 2 – May 17 1 in 20
5 Kaisar 9 Mar 2 – May 14 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Kairat 1591 59 +38 13 10.2 +2.8
Astana 1579 57 +30 11 8.5 +2.5
Tobol 1498 54 +2 10 9.9 +0.1
Yelimay 1461 48 +43 13 8.9 +4.1
Aktobe 1400 43 -34 4 7.0 -3.0
Zhenis 1396 36 -24 5 8.2 -3.2
Ordabasy 1419 35 +40 7 6.3 +0.7
Okzhetpes 1261 32 -83 3 5.9 -2.9
Kyzylzhar 1286 27 +13 6 4.8 +1.2
Ulytau 1128 23 -18 6 4.8 +1.2
Kaisar 1231 22 -14 3 4.5 -1.5
Zhetysu 1182 21 -38 1 4.2 -3.2
Atyrau 1246 19 +75 8 4.2 +3.8
Turan 1107 16 -31 1 3.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AST ATY KAI KAI KYZ OKZ ORD TOB TUR ULY YEL ZHE ZHE
Aktobe —
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-2
2.23
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
3.43
0-2-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
4.53
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
3.74
1-0-1
4.33
Astana
2-0-0
3.50
—
2-0-0
4.26
0-2-0
2.72
1-1-0
4.30
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
3.76
1-0-1
3.15
1-1-0
4.35
2-0-0
4.84
1-1-0
3.50
1-0-1
3.93
2-0-0
4.29
Atyrau
0-0-2
1.77
0-0-2
1.23
—
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
1.51
1-0-1
0.96
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
1.68
0-2-0
2.55
Kairat
2-0-0
3.19
0-2-0
2.69
2-0-0
4.00
—
0-2-0
4.33
2-0-0
4.31
1-0-1
4.02
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.07
2-0-0
4.27
2-0-0
4.93
0-0-2
3.91
2-0-0
4.11
1-1-0
4.58
Kaisar
0-0-2
1.43
0-1-1
1.20
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
1.17
—
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
1.23
1-0-1
3.06
0-2-0
3.55
0-0-2
2.28
0-2-0
2.35
0-2-0
2.95
Kyzylzhar
0-1-1
1.76
0-1-1
1.70
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
3.03
—
1-0-1
2.26
0-2-0
2.26
0-0-2
1.65
1-0-1
3.44
1-1-0
3.95
0-1-1
1.99
0-2-0
2.42
1-1-0
3.29
Okzhetpes
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
1.44
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.16
—
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
3.37
2-0-0
4.00
1-1-0
2.20
0-2-0
2.72
2-0-0
3.64
Ordabasy
0-2-0
2.78
1-0-1
1.68
1-1-0
3.96
0-0-2
2.17
1-1-0
3.60
0-2-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.10
—
0-0-2
2.02
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
4.52
0-1-1
2.62
1-1-0
3.06
1-0-1
3.77
Tobol
1-1-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
4.58
0-0-2
2.35
1-1-0
4.27
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.40
—
2-0-0
4.36
1-1-0
4.57
1-1-0
3.27
0-2-0
3.68
2-0-0
4.43
Turan
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
1.18
1-1-0
2.74
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
2.36
1-0-1
1.98
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
1.17
—
0-1-1
3.27
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
1.98
0-1-1
2.67
Ulytau
1-0-1
1.01
0-0-2
0.76
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
0.69
0-2-0
1.88
0-1-1
1.52
0-0-2
1.47
2-0-0
1.02
0-1-1
0.97
1-1-0
2.15
—
0-1-1
1.24
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
1.95
Yelimay
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
3.23
2-0-0
1.54
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.44
0-1-1
3.23
1-1-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.14
2-0-0
4.23
1-1-0
4.25
—
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.69
Zhenis
1-0-1
1.69
1-0-1
1.52
1-1-0
3.76
0-0-2
1.36
0-2-0
3.09
0-2-0
2.99
0-2-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.35
0-2-0
1.77
2-0-0
3.49
1-1-0
3.91
1-0-1
2.27
—
1-1-0
3.23
Zhetysu
1-0-1
1.17
0-0-2
1.20
0-2-0
2.86
0-1-1
0.97
0-2-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.80
1-0-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.08
1-1-0
2.76
1-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
2.19
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +10.0
Allowed 0.68 -12.1
Differential 0.95 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.24%9.07%4.95%1.37%1.65%1.10%26.37%
19.07%13.74%9.62%1.92%0.82%0.82%35.99%
24.95%9.62%4.95%2.47%0.55%0.27%22.80%
31.37%1.92%2.47%1.10%0.27%0.82%7.97%
41.65%0.82%0.55%0.27%——3.30%
5+1.10%0.82%0.27%0.82%—0.55%3.57%
Total26.37%35.99%22.80%7.97%3.30%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.35 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.78
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%———23.08%
115.38%3.85%15.38%———34.62%
23.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
33.85%3.85%3.85%——3.85%15.38%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total34.62%30.77%30.77%——3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.12 +0.38
SD 1.24 1.14 1.60
CV 0.83 1.02 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%————3.85%
13.85%15.38%—3.85%——23.08%
219.23%11.54%—3.85%——34.62%
33.85%—3.85%7.69%——15.38%
43.85%—3.85%———7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%——15.38%
Total34.62%34.62%11.54%19.23%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.54 1.15 +1.38
SD 1.63 1.12 1.88
CV 0.64 0.97 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%11.54%—7.69%3.85%42.31%
17.69%11.54%19.23%—3.85%—42.31%
2—3.85%3.85%3.85%——11.54%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total19.23%26.92%34.62%3.85%11.54%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 1.73 -0.88
SD 1.08 1.37 1.84
CV 1.28 0.79 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%————7.69%
123.08%11.54%3.85%———38.46%
2—15.38%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
3—7.69%————7.69%
411.54%7.69%————19.23%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total42.31%46.15%7.69%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 0.73 +1.31
SD 1.40 0.78 1.64
CV 0.69 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%3.85%——3.85%26.92%
17.69%26.92%11.54%—3.85%3.85%53.85%
2—3.85%11.54%—3.85%—19.23%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total19.23%38.46%26.92%—7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.62 -0.69
SD 0.69 1.44 1.46
CV 0.75 0.89 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%19.23%11.54%———42.31%
13.85%19.23%3.85%———26.92%
2—15.38%—7.69%——23.08%
3—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.38%57.69%15.38%11.54%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.23 -0.27
SD 1.00 0.86 1.04
CV 1.04 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%11.54%3.85%———23.08%
17.69%7.69%11.54%7.69%—3.85%38.46%
23.85%7.69%3.85%——3.85%19.23%
3—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
4——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
5+—————3.85%3.85%
Total19.23%30.77%26.92%11.54%—11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.62 -0.35
SD 1.25 1.68 1.77
CV 0.99 1.04 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%15.38%——3.85%—30.77%
115.38%7.69%11.54%———34.62%
2—7.69%11.54%3.85%——23.08%
3———————
43.85%—————3.85%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total34.62%34.62%23.08%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.08 +0.35
SD 1.68 1.06 2.04
CV 1.18 0.98 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%————11.54%
111.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
215.38%19.23%7.69%3.85%——46.15%
3—3.85%7.69%———11.54%
4———————
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total38.46%34.62%19.23%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.96 +0.77
SD 1.08 0.96 1.37
CV 0.62 1.00 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%7.69%3.85%7.69%3.85%38.46%
17.69%11.54%23.08%———42.31%
23.85%—————3.85%
3——3.85%—3.85%7.69%15.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.38%23.08%34.62%3.85%11.54%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 2.23 -1.27
SD 1.04 1.90 1.91
CV 1.08 0.85 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%11.54%3.85%3.85%—38.46%
17.69%23.08%7.69%—3.85%3.85%46.15%
2—11.54%3.85%———15.38%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%50.00%23.08%3.85%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.58 -0.81
SD 0.71 1.24 1.50
CV 0.92 0.79 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%7.69%———11.54%
17.69%19.23%7.69%———34.62%
27.69%15.38%—3.85%——26.92%
311.54%—7.69%3.85%——23.08%
4———————
5+———3.85%——3.85%
Total26.92%38.46%23.08%11.54%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.19 +0.62
SD 1.30 0.98 1.47
CV 0.72 0.82 —
Max 6 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.23%7.69%————26.92%
1—15.38%7.69%3.85%——26.92%
215.38%3.85%11.54%—3.85%—34.62%
3—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
4———————
5+———3.85%——3.85%
Total34.62%30.77%23.08%7.69%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.15 +0.27
SD 1.33 1.12 1.28
CV 0.94 0.97 —
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%3.85%11.54%—3.85%42.31%
17.69%11.54%7.69%7.69%——34.62%
2—7.69%7.69%3.85%——19.23%
3———————
4———————
5+—————3.85%3.85%
Total23.08%26.92%19.23%23.08%—7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 1.50 -0.81
SD 0.84 1.39 1.50
CV 1.21 0.93 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kairat 1591 59 49.90 +9.10 95.0% 33 41 45 50 54 59 65
Astana 1579 57 50.09 +6.91 86.0% 36 39 46 49 54 61 65
Tobol 1498 54 47.56 +6.44 85.0% 34 37 43 48 52 57 63
Yelimay 1461 48 38.52 +9.48 93.0% 19 27 34 38 43 50 54
Ordabasy 1419 35 40.43 -5.43 16.0% 22 28 37 40 43 51 55
Aktobe 1400 43 44.85 -1.85 39.0% 30 35 40 46 50 53 60
Zhenis 1396 36 33.55 +2.45 73.0% 18 24 30 33 37 44 47
Kyzylzhar 1286 27 31.51 -4.51 30.0% 18 21 26 32 36 42 47
Okzhetpes 1261 35 35.73 -0.73 48.0% 22 24 32 36 39 45 55
Atyrau 1246 19 25.52 -6.52 16.0% 13 16 21 26 30 35 40
Kaisar 1231 22 29.69 -7.69 12.0% 13 19 26 30 35 39 47
Zhetysu 1182 21 25.67 -4.67 22.0% 15 16 22 26 29 35 36
Ulytau 1128 23 18.92 +4.08 77.0% 7 8 15 19 23 27 32
Turan 1107 16 24.86 -8.86 6.0% 11 16 21 24 29 34 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.64%
No Edge
42.31%28.02%29.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 42.20 Elo pts.
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.30 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
Kairat, 2nd of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.08/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.87 * Some Luck: 4.87 to 7.31 * Lucky: 7.31 to 9.75 * Wild Swing: 9.75 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.31 * Close: 1.31 to 1.96 * Off: 1.96 to 2.62 * Way Off: 2.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.21 points
Some Luck
06.0915
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.29
Pinpoint
01.644
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
95.00%
Kairat
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
6.00%
Turan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 158.54
2.24
Strong Separation
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
78%
Clear Edge
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.10
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Kairat29.00%25.00%23.00%8.00%11.00%3.00%—1.00%——————
Astana34.00%29.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%———————
Tobol21.00%15.00%19.00%20.00%13.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%——————
Yelimay—9.00%9.00%12.00%10.00%18.00%16.00%5.00%13.00%1.00%5.00%1.00%—1.00%
Aktobe13.00%13.00%18.00%19.00%13.00%12.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%————
Zhenis——3.00%3.00%4.00%9.00%20.00%23.00%11.00%12.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%
Ordabasy2.00%6.00%9.00%16.00%25.00%19.00%8.00%7.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%—
Okzhetpes1.00%2.00%2.00%7.00%11.00%12.00%15.00%20.00%13.00%10.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%—
Kyzylzhar——3.00%3.00%2.00%10.00%11.00%14.00%15.00%9.00%13.00%13.00%6.00%1.00%
Ulytau————————1.00%7.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%53.00%
Kaisar—1.00%——3.00%5.00%10.00%11.00%15.00%16.00%16.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%
Zhetysu——————5.00%3.00%9.00%17.00%18.00%17.00%19.00%12.00%
Atyrau————1.00%1.00%3.00%6.00%12.00%14.00%11.00%20.00%17.00%15.00%
Turan—————1.00%1.00%6.00%7.00%11.00%17.00%19.00%26.00%12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Aktobe 100% —
Astana 100% —
Kairat 100% —
Okzhetpes 100% —
Ordabasy 100% —
Tobol 100% —
Kyzylzhar 99.00% 1.00%
Yelimay 99.00% 1.00%
Zhenis 99.00% 1.00%
Kaisar 95.00% 5.00%
Turan 88.00% 12.00%
Zhetysu 88.00% 12.00%
Atyrau 85.00% 15.00%
Ulytau 47.00% 53.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-03-01 Aktobe D 0-050.4 1403 1402 41.27% 29.57% 29.16%+0.24 -1.1 1
2025-03-01 @ Ordabasy D 0-050.4 1402 1403 29.16% 29.57% 41.27%-0.24 +1.1 1
2025-03-01 Ulytau W 2-029.2 1389 1137 66.97% 23.76% 9.27%+1.60 +9.2 3
2025-03-01 @ Tobol L 0-229.2 1137 1389 9.27% 23.76% 66.97%-1.60 -9.2 0
2025-03-01 Yelimay W 2-146.2 1374 1350 44.20% 29.38% 26.42%+0.36 +12.0 3
2025-03-01 @ Atyrau L 1-246.2 1350 1374 26.42% 29.38% 44.20%-0.36 -12.0 0
2025-03-02 Kairat D 1-156.5 1444 1425 43.61% 29.43% 26.96%+0.33 -1.4 1
2025-03-02 @ Astana D 1-156.5 1425 1444 26.96% 29.43% 43.61%-0.33 +1.4 1
2025-03-02 Okzhetpes W 2-039.3 1267 1316 34.27% 29.72% 36.01%-0.03 +30.1 3
2025-03-02 @ Turan L 0-239.3 1316 1267 36.01% 29.72% 34.27%+0.03 -30.1 0
2025-03-02 Zhenis D 0-048.1 1344 1301 46.59% 29.16% 24.25%+0.46 -2.2 1
2025-03-02 @ Kaisar D 0-048.1 1301 1344 24.25% 29.16% 46.59%-0.46 +2.2 1
2025-03-02 Zhetysu D 1-152.5 1352 1278 50.33% 28.67% 20.99%+0.63 -2.6 1
2025-03-02 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-152.5 1278 1352 20.99% 28.67% 50.33%-0.63 +2.6 1
2025-03-08 Atyrau W 2-150.6 1286 1386 27.41% 29.46% 43.13%-0.32 +17.2 3
2025-03-08 @ Okzhetpes L 1-250.6 1386 1286 43.13% 29.46% 27.41%+0.32 -17.2 3
2025-03-08 Ordabasy W 4-037.5 1427 1402 44.27% 29.38% 26.35%+0.36 +45.5 4
2025-03-08 @ Kairat L 0-437.5 1402 1427 26.35% 29.38% 44.27%-0.36 -45.4 1
2025-03-08 Tobol D 0-048.6 1303 1399 28.02% 29.51% 42.47%-0.29 +1.4 2
2025-03-08 @ Zhenis D 0-048.6 1399 1303 42.47% 29.51% 28.02%+0.29 -1.4 4
2025-03-08 Ulytau D 0-047.7 1281 1128 58.52% 26.89% 14.58%+1.06 -4.6 2
2025-03-08 @ Zhetysu D 0-047.7 1128 1281 14.58% 26.89% 58.52%-1.06 +4.6 1
2025-03-09 Astana L 0-239.6 1350 1443 28.28% 29.52% 42.20%-0.28 -25.3 1
2025-03-09 @ Kyzylzhar W 2-039.6 1443 1350 42.20% 29.52% 28.28%+0.28 +25.3 4
2025-03-09 Kaisar W 2-038.2 1338 1342 40.65% 29.60% 29.74%+0.21 +26.2 3
2025-03-09 @ Yelimay L 0-238.2 1342 1338 29.74% 29.60% 40.65%-0.21 -26.2 1
2025-03-09 Turan W 2-143.0 1403 1297 53.81% 28.05% 18.14%+0.80 +8.8 4
2025-03-09 @ Aktobe L 1-243.0 1297 1403 18.14% 28.05% 53.81%-0.80 -8.8 3
2025-03-29 Kairat L 1-244.2 1289 1472 18.75% 28.20% 53.05%-0.77 -9.1 3
2025-03-29 @ Turan W 2-144.2 1472 1289 53.05% 28.20% 18.75%+0.77 +9.1 7
2025-03-29 Okzhetpes D 2-257.5 1315 1303 42.71% 29.49% 27.80%+0.30 -0.9 2
2025-03-29 @ Kaisar D 2-257.5 1303 1315 27.80% 29.49% 42.71%-0.30 +0.9 4
2025-03-30 Aktobe L 0-439.1 1369 1412 35.07% 29.73% 35.20%+0.00 -56.0 3
2025-03-30 @ Atyrau W 4-039.1 1412 1369 35.20% 29.73% 35.07%+0.00 +56.0 7
2025-03-30 Kyzylzhar D 0-048.4 1357 1324 45.32% 29.28% 25.40%+0.41 -1.9 2
2025-03-30 @ Ordabasy D 0-048.4 1324 1357 25.40% 29.28% 45.32%-0.41 +1.9 2
2025-03-30 Yelimay D 1-154.0 1397 1365 45.32% 29.28% 25.39%+0.41 -1.7 5
2025-03-30 @ Tobol D 1-154.0 1365 1397 25.39% 29.28% 45.32%-0.41 +1.7 4
2025-03-30 Zhenis D 1-151.7 1133 1305 19.77% 28.43% 51.80%-0.70 +2.9 2
2025-03-30 @ Ulytau D 1-151.7 1305 1133 51.80% 28.43% 19.77%+0.70 -2.9 3
2025-03-30 Zhetysu W 3-030.8 1468 1276 62.08% 25.75% 12.17%+1.27 +17.7 7
2025-03-30 @ Astana L 0-330.8 1276 1468 12.17% 25.75% 62.08%-1.27 -17.7 2
2025-04-05 Ordabasy W 2-145.0 1486 1355 56.42% 27.46% 16.13%+0.94 +8.0 10
2025-04-05 @ Astana L 1-245.0 1355 1486 16.13% 27.46% 56.42%-0.94 -8.0 2
2025-04-05 Tobol L 0-141.4 1304 1396 28.50% 29.54% 41.96%-0.27 -13.5 4
2025-04-05 @ Okzhetpes W 1-041.4 1396 1304 41.96% 29.54% 28.50%+0.27 +13.5 8
2025-04-05 Turan L 2-355.9 1326 1280 47.08% 29.10% 23.81%+0.48 -17.5 2
2025-04-05 @ Kyzylzhar W 3-255.9 1280 1326 23.81% 29.10% 47.08%-0.48 +17.5 6
2025-04-05 Zhenis D 0-047.3 1258 1302 35.01% 29.73% 35.26%-0.01 +0.0 3
2025-04-05 @ Zhetysu D 0-047.3 1302 1258 35.26% 29.73% 35.01%+0.01 -0.0 4
2025-04-06 Kairat L 1-439.7 1313 1481 20.13% 28.50% 51.37%-0.68 -23.7 3
2025-04-06 @ Atyrau W 4-139.7 1481 1313 51.37% 28.50% 20.13%+0.68 +23.7 10
2025-04-06 Kaisar W 4-137.3 1468 1314 58.60% 26.87% 14.53%+1.06 +17.7 10
2025-04-06 @ Aktobe L 1-437.3 1314 1468 14.53% 26.87% 58.60%-1.06 -17.7 2
2025-04-06 Ulytau W 3-027.7 1366 1136 65.30% 24.49% 10.20%+1.48 +14.7 7
2025-04-06 @ Yelimay L 0-327.7 1136 1366 10.20% 24.49% 65.30%-1.48 -14.8 2
2025-04-16 Atyrau W 4-030.8 1505 1289 64.05% 25.01% 10.94%+1.40 +20.7 13
2025-04-16 @ Kairat L 0-430.8 1289 1505 10.94% 25.01% 64.05%-1.40 -20.7 3
2025-04-19 Aktobe W 2-045.9 1409 1486 30.43% 29.63% 39.94%-0.19 +32.5 11
2025-04-19 @ Tobol L 0-245.9 1486 1409 39.94% 29.63% 30.43%+0.19 -32.5 10
2025-04-19 Kyzylzhar L 1-247.6 1269 1309 35.48% 29.73% 34.80%+0.01 -14.9 3
2025-04-19 @ Atyrau W 2-147.6 1309 1269 34.80% 29.73% 35.48%-0.01 +14.9 5
2025-04-19 Okzhetpes L 0-136.9 1121 1290 19.97% 28.47% 51.55%-0.69 -10.2 2
2025-04-19 @ Ulytau W 1-036.9 1290 1121 51.55% 28.47% 19.97%+0.69 +10.2 7
2025-04-19 Zhetysu W 1-037.5 1347 1258 51.96% 28.40% 19.64%+0.71 +10.0 5
2025-04-19 @ Ordabasy L 0-137.5 1258 1347 19.64% 28.40% 51.96%-0.71 -10.0 3
2025-04-20 Astana D 1-155.0 1297 1494 17.62% 27.91% 54.47%-0.84 +3.4 7
2025-04-20 @ Turan D 1-155.0 1494 1297 54.47% 27.91% 17.62%+0.84 -3.4 11
2025-04-20 Kairat D 0-051.6 1297 1525 15.19% 27.13% 57.69%-1.01 +4.4 3
2025-04-20 @ Kaisar D 0-051.6 1525 1297 57.69% 27.13% 15.19%+1.01 -4.4 14
2025-04-20 Yelimay L 0-141.7 1302 1381 30.05% 29.62% 40.34%-0.20 -14.0 4
2025-04-20 @ Zhenis W 1-041.7 1381 1302 40.34% 29.62% 30.05%+0.20 +14.0 10
2025-04-26 Atyrau W 2-140.1 1490 1254 65.76% 24.30% 9.94%+1.51 +4.9 14
2025-04-26 @ Astana L 1-240.1 1254 1490 9.94% 24.30% 65.76%-1.51 -4.9 3
2025-04-26 Ulytau W 1-030.8 1453 1111 73.33% 20.47% 6.20%+2.09 +3.1 13
2025-04-26 @ Aktobe L 0-130.8 1111 1453 6.20% 20.47% 73.33%-2.09 -3.1 2
2025-04-26 Yelimay L 0-333.4 1248 1395 22.21% 28.88% 48.92%-0.57 -30.4 3
2025-04-26 @ Zhetysu W 3-033.4 1395 1248 48.92% 28.88% 22.21%+0.57 +30.4 13
2025-04-26 Zhenis D 1-151.9 1301 1288 42.80% 29.48% 27.72%+0.30 -1.3 8
2025-04-26 @ Okzhetpes D 1-151.9 1288 1301 27.72% 29.48% 42.80%-0.30 +1.3 5
2025-04-27 Kaisar W 2-145.2 1324 1301 44.03% 29.39% 26.57%+0.35 +12.1 8
2025-04-27 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-245.2 1301 1324 26.57% 29.39% 44.03%-0.35 -12.1 3
2025-04-27 Tobol W 2-150.6 1521 1441 50.96% 28.57% 20.47%+0.66 +9.8 17
2025-04-27 @ Kairat L 1-250.6 1441 1521 20.47% 28.57% 50.96%-0.66 -9.8 11
2025-04-27 Turan W 1-039.0 1357 1300 48.27% 28.96% 22.77%+0.54 +11.3 8
2025-04-27 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.0 1300 1357 22.77% 28.96% 48.27%-0.54 -11.3 7
2025-04-30 Astana L 0-233.5 1249 1495 13.99% 26.64% 59.37%-1.11 -14.0 3
2025-04-30 @ Atyrau W 2-033.5 1495 1249 59.37% 26.64% 13.99%+1.11 +14.0 17
2025-05-03 Aktobe L 0-139.3 1289 1456 20.20% 28.52% 51.27%-0.68 -10.3 5
2025-05-03 @ Zhenis W 1-039.3 1456 1289 51.27% 28.52% 20.20%+0.68 +10.3 16
2025-05-03 Kairat L 1-430.9 1108 1531 6.32% 20.62% 73.06%-2.07 -7.3 2
2025-05-03 @ Ulytau W 4-130.9 1531 1108 73.06% 20.62% 6.32%+2.07 +7.3 20
2025-05-03 Ordabasy L 1-244.0 1235 1368 23.61% 29.08% 47.31%-0.49 -11.0 3
2025-05-03 @ Atyrau W 2-144.0 1368 1235 47.31% 29.08% 23.61%+0.49 +11.0 11
2025-05-03 Zhetysu D 0-047.4 1289 1218 49.99% 28.72% 21.28%+0.61 -2.9 8
2025-05-03 @ Turan D 0-047.4 1218 1289 21.28% 28.72% 49.99%-0.61 +2.9 4
2025-05-04 Astana D 1-155.3 1289 1509 15.80% 27.35% 56.85%-0.96 +3.8 4
2025-05-04 @ Kaisar D 1-155.3 1509 1289 56.85% 27.35% 15.80%+0.96 -3.8 18
2025-05-04 Kyzylzhar W 2-144.4 1432 1336 52.79% 28.25% 18.96%+0.75 +9.2 14
2025-05-04 @ Tobol L 1-244.4 1336 1432 18.96% 28.25% 52.79%-0.75 -9.2 8
2025-05-04 Okzhetpes L 0-246.1 1426 1299 55.94% 27.57% 16.48%+0.91 -42.9 13
2025-05-04 @ Yelimay W 2-046.1 1299 1426 16.48% 27.57% 55.94%-0.91 +42.9 11
2025-05-09 Kairat L 1-243.1 1279 1538 13.19% 26.27% 60.54%-1.18 -6.6 5
2025-05-09 @ Zhenis W 2-143.1 1538 1279 60.54% 26.27% 13.19%+1.18 +6.6 23
2025-05-10 Atyrau W 1-037.9 1286 1224 48.98% 28.87% 22.16%+0.57 +11.1 11
2025-05-10 @ Turan L 0-137.9 1224 1286 22.16% 28.87% 48.98%-0.57 -11.1 3
2025-05-10 Tobol L 1-355.5 1505 1441 49.24% 28.83% 21.93%+0.58 -33.2 18
2025-05-10 @ Astana W 3-155.5 1441 1505 21.93% 28.83% 49.24%-0.58 +33.2 17
2025-05-10 Ulytau W 2-138.0 1326 1100 64.93% 24.65% 10.42%+1.45 +5.2 11
2025-05-10 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-238.0 1100 1326 10.42% 24.65% 64.93%-1.45 -5.2 2
2025-05-11 Kaisar W 5-033.1 1379 1293 51.72% 28.44% 19.83%+0.70 +44.6 14
2025-05-11 @ Ordabasy L 0-533.1 1293 1379 19.83% 28.44% 51.72%-0.70 -44.6 4
2025-05-11 Okzhetpes L 1-341.1 1221 1342 24.93% 29.24% 45.83%-0.43 -19.9 4
2025-05-11 @ Zhetysu W 3-141.1 1342 1221 45.83% 29.24% 24.93%+0.43 +19.9 14
2025-05-11 Yelimay W 1-041.5 1466 1383 51.43% 28.49% 20.08%+0.68 +10.2 19
2025-05-11 @ Aktobe L 0-141.5 1383 1466 20.08% 28.49% 51.43%-0.68 -10.2 13
2025-05-14 Aktobe L 1-242.2 1248 1477 15.21% 27.14% 57.65%-1.01 -7.5 4
2025-05-14 @ Kaisar W 2-142.2 1477 1248 57.65% 27.14% 15.21%+1.01 +7.5 22
2025-05-17 Aktobe L 1-345.1 1362 1484 24.86% 29.23% 45.91%-0.43 -19.8 14
2025-05-17 @ Okzhetpes W 3-145.1 1484 1362 45.91% 29.23% 24.86%+0.43 +19.8 25
2025-05-17 Zhetysu D 1-151.3 1213 1201 42.64% 29.49% 27.86%+0.29 -1.2 4
2025-05-17 @ Atyrau D 1-151.3 1201 1213 27.86% 29.49% 42.64%-0.29 +1.2 5
2025-05-18 Astana L 0-228.5 1095 1472 7.75% 22.33% 69.92%-1.82 -7.5 2
2025-05-18 @ Ulytau W 2-028.5 1472 1095 69.92% 22.33% 7.75%+1.82 +7.5 21
2025-05-18 Kairat W 1-053.2 1372 1545 19.75% 28.43% 51.82%-0.70 +21.3 16
2025-05-18 @ Yelimay L 0-153.2 1545 1372 51.82% 28.43% 19.75%+0.70 -21.3 23
2025-05-18 Kyzylzhar D 0-047.6 1272 1332 32.73% 29.70% 37.57%-0.09 +0.4 6
2025-05-18 @ Zhenis D 0-047.6 1332 1272 37.57% 29.70% 32.73%+0.09 -0.4 12
2025-05-18 Turan W 1-042.8 1241 1297 33.13% 29.71% 37.16%-0.08 +16.3 7
2025-05-18 @ Kaisar L 0-142.8 1297 1241 37.16% 29.71% 33.13%+0.08 -16.3 11
2025-05-24 Okzhetpes L 1-258.8 1523 1342 61.12% 26.08% 12.80%+1.21 -23.2 23
2025-05-24 @ Kairat W 2-158.8 1342 1523 12.80% 26.08% 61.12%-1.21 +23.2 17
2025-05-24 Ulytau L 0-150.7 1424 1088 72.92% 20.70% 6.38%+2.05 -28.2 14
2025-05-24 @ Ordabasy W 1-050.7 1088 1424 6.38% 20.70% 72.92%-2.05 +28.2 5
2025-05-24 Zhenis W 4-241.6 1480 1273 63.37% 25.27% 11.36%+1.35 +8.8 24
2025-05-24 @ Astana L 2-441.6 1273 1480 11.36% 25.27% 63.37%-1.35 -8.8 6
2025-05-25 Aktobe W 2-156.0 1202 1504 10.87% 24.95% 64.18%-1.41 +24.1 8
2025-05-25 @ Zhetysu L 1-256.0 1504 1202 64.18% 24.95% 10.87%+1.41 -24.1 25
2025-05-25 Kaisar L 1-246.9 1211 1257 34.69% 29.73% 35.58%-0.02 -14.7 4
2025-05-25 @ Atyrau W 2-146.9 1257 1211 35.58% 29.73% 34.69%+0.02 +14.7 10
2025-05-25 Tobol L 1-243.8 1281 1474 17.92% 27.99% 54.08%-0.82 -8.8 11
2025-05-25 @ Turan W 2-143.8 1474 1281 54.08% 27.99% 17.92%+0.82 +8.8 20
2025-05-25 Yelimay D 1-153.2 1331 1394 32.30% 29.70% 38.00%-0.11 +0.5 13
2025-05-25 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-153.2 1394 1331 38.00% 29.70% 32.30%+0.11 -0.5 17
2025-05-30 Astana L 0-241.9 1393 1489 28.04% 29.51% 42.45%-0.29 -25.1 17
2025-05-30 @ Yelimay W 2-041.9 1489 1393 42.45% 29.51% 28.04%+0.29 +25.1 27
2025-05-30 Atyrau W 5-027.9 1483 1197 69.47% 22.56% 7.98%+1.78 +18.1 23
2025-05-30 @ Tobol L 0-527.9 1197 1483 7.98% 22.56% 69.47%-1.78 -18.1 4
2025-05-30 Kairat L 1-256.9 1480 1500 38.28% 29.69% 32.03%+0.12 -15.7 25
2025-05-30 @ Aktobe W 2-156.9 1500 1480 32.03% 29.69% 38.28%-0.12 +15.7 26
2025-05-30 Ordabasy D 2-257.9 1264 1396 23.77% 29.10% 47.13%-0.49 +1.5 7
2025-05-30 @ Zhenis D 2-257.9 1396 1264 47.13% 29.10% 23.77%+0.49 -1.5 15
2025-05-31 Kyzylzhar W 3-250.3 1365 1332 45.49% 29.27% 25.24%+0.41 +11.0 20
2025-05-31 @ Okzhetpes L 2-350.3 1332 1365 25.24% 29.27% 45.49%-0.41 -11.0 13
2025-05-31 Turan W 2-151.1 1116 1272 21.23% 28.71% 50.06%-0.62 +19.5 8
2025-05-31 @ Ulytau L 1-251.1 1272 1116 50.06% 28.71% 21.23%+0.62 -19.5 11
2025-05-31 Zhetysu D 2-256.9 1272 1226 46.92% 29.12% 23.96%+0.47 -1.5 11
2025-05-31 @ Kaisar D 2-256.9 1226 1272 23.96% 29.12% 46.92%-0.47 +1.5 9
2025-06-14 Aktobe D 1-154.5 1321 1464 22.54% 28.93% 48.53%-0.55 +2.3 14
2025-06-14 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-154.5 1464 1321 48.53% 28.93% 22.54%+0.55 -2.3 26
2025-06-14 Kairat D 2-260.1 1228 1516 11.57% 25.40% 63.04%-1.33 +3.7 10
2025-06-14 @ Zhetysu D 2-260.1 1516 1228 63.04% 25.40% 11.57%+1.33 -3.7 27
2025-06-14 Ulytau L 0-145.0 1179 1135 46.70% 29.15% 24.16%+0.46 -19.5 4
2025-06-14 @ Atyrau W 1-045.0 1135 1179 24.16% 29.15% 46.70%-0.46 +19.5 11
2025-06-14 Zhenis L 0-240.0 1253 1265 39.37% 29.66% 30.98%+0.16 -32.1 11
2025-06-14 @ Turan W 2-040.0 1265 1253 30.98% 29.66% 39.37%-0.16 +32.1 10
2025-06-15 Okzhetpes W 5-243.3 1514 1376 57.03% 27.30% 15.67%+0.97 +16.5 30
2025-06-15 @ Astana L 2-543.3 1376 1514 15.67% 27.30% 57.03%-0.97 -16.5 20
2025-06-15 Tobol D 1-154.8 1270 1501 15.05% 27.07% 57.88%-1.02 +4.0 12
2025-06-15 @ Kaisar D 1-154.8 1501 1270 57.88% 27.07% 15.05%+1.02 -4.0 24
2025-06-15 Yelimay D 1-154.0 1394 1368 44.49% 29.36% 26.15%+0.37 -1.6 16
2025-06-15 @ Ordabasy D 1-154.0 1368 1394 26.15% 29.36% 44.49%-0.37 +1.6 18
2025-06-21 Atyrau W 2-032.0 1297 1159 57.13% 27.28% 15.60%+0.98 +15.5 13
2025-06-21 @ Zhenis L 0-232.0 1159 1297 15.60% 27.28% 57.13%-0.98 -15.5 4
2025-06-21 Kyzylzhar W 1-038.0 1512 1323 61.85% 25.83% 12.32%+1.26 +6.5 30
2025-06-21 @ Kairat L 0-138.0 1323 1512 12.32% 25.83% 61.85%-1.26 -6.5 14
2025-06-21 Ordabasy L 0-144.7 1360 1393 36.55% 29.72% 33.73%+0.05 -16.1 20
2025-06-21 @ Okzhetpes W 1-044.7 1393 1360 33.73% 29.72% 36.55%-0.05 +16.1 19
2025-06-21 Turan W 2-140.7 1370 1221 58.18% 26.99% 14.83%+1.04 +7.4 21
2025-06-21 @ Yelimay L 1-240.7 1221 1370 14.83% 26.99% 58.18%-1.04 -7.4 11
2025-06-21 Zhetysu W 2-139.2 1497 1232 67.96% 23.30% 8.74%+1.67 +4.3 27
2025-06-21 @ Tobol L 1-239.2 1232 1497 8.74% 23.30% 67.96%-1.67 -4.3 10
2025-06-22 Astana L 0-150.2 1462 1530 31.55% 29.67% 38.78%-0.14 -14.5 26
2025-06-22 @ Aktobe W 1-050.2 1530 1462 38.78% 29.67% 31.55%+0.14 +14.5 33
2025-06-22 Ulytau D 1-151.8 1274 1155 55.27% 27.73% 17.00%+0.88 -3.5 13
2025-06-22 @ Kaisar D 1-151.8 1155 1274 17.00% 27.73% 55.27%-0.88 +3.5 12
2025-06-28 Okzhetpes D 0-047.6 1144 1344 17.35% 27.83% 54.82%-0.86 +3.8 5
2025-06-28 @ Atyrau D 0-047.6 1344 1144 54.82% 27.83% 17.35%+0.86 -3.9 21
2025-06-28 Zhetysu L 1-245.8 1158 1227 31.43% 29.67% 38.90%-0.15 -13.7 12
2025-06-28 @ Ulytau W 2-145.8 1227 1158 38.90% 29.67% 31.43%+0.15 +13.6 13
2025-06-29 Aktobe L 0-330.8 1213 1447 14.82% 26.99% 58.20%-1.04 -21.4 11
2025-06-29 @ Turan W 3-030.8 1447 1213 58.20% 26.99% 14.82%+1.04 +21.4 29
2025-06-29 Kairat L 0-146.1 1409 1519 26.25% 29.37% 44.39%-0.37 -12.7 19
2025-06-29 @ Ordabasy W 1-046.1 1519 1409 44.39% 29.37% 26.25%+0.37 +12.7 33
2025-06-29 Kyzylzhar D 3-366.8 1545 1316 65.09% 24.58% 10.33%+1.47 -3.3 34
2025-06-29 @ Astana D 3-366.8 1316 1545 10.33% 24.58% 65.09%-1.47 +3.3 15
2025-06-29 Yelimay L 1-245.4 1271 1377 26.67% 29.40% 43.92%-0.35 -12.1 13
2025-06-29 @ Kaisar W 2-145.4 1377 1271 43.92% 29.40% 26.67%+0.35 +12.1 24
2025-06-29 Zhenis D 2-261.4 1501 1313 61.77% 25.86% 12.37%+1.25 -3.5 28
2025-06-29 @ Tobol D 2-261.4 1313 1501 12.37% 25.86% 61.77%-1.25 +3.5 14
2025-07-04 Turan W 4-026.8 1531 1192 73.13% 20.58% 6.29%+2.07 +11.2 36
2025-07-04 @ Kairat L 0-426.8 1192 1531 6.29% 20.58% 73.13%-2.07 -11.2 11
2025-07-05 Atyrau W 2-028.3 1469 1148 71.91% 21.27% 6.82%+1.97 +6.5 32
2025-07-05 @ Aktobe L 0-228.3 1148 1469 6.82% 21.27% 71.91%-1.97 -6.5 5
2025-07-05 Ordabasy D 0-048.8 1320 1396 30.45% 29.64% 39.91%-0.19 +0.9 16
2025-07-05 @ Kyzylzhar D 0-048.8 1396 1320 39.91% 29.64% 30.45%+0.19 -0.9 20
2025-07-05 Tobol L 2-354.8 1389 1498 26.43% 29.38% 44.19%-0.36 -11.4 24
2025-07-05 @ Yelimay W 3-254.8 1498 1389 44.19% 29.38% 26.43%+0.36 +11.4 31
2025-07-05 Ulytau W 2-031.0 1316 1145 60.29% 26.35% 13.35%+1.16 +13.3 17
2025-07-05 @ Zhenis L 0-231.0 1145 1316 13.35% 26.35% 60.29%-1.16 -13.3 12
2025-07-06 Astana L 0-232.8 1241 1541 10.94% 25.00% 64.06%-1.40 -10.9 13
2025-07-06 @ Zhetysu W 2-032.8 1541 1241 64.06% 25.00% 10.94%+1.40 +10.9 37
2025-07-06 Kaisar W 4-243.5 1340 1259 51.17% 28.54% 20.29%+0.67 +15.1 24
2025-07-06 @ Okzhetpes L 2-443.5 1259 1340 20.29% 28.54% 51.17%-0.67 -15.1 13
2025-07-12 Kyzylzhar L 1-243.3 1181 1321 22.93% 28.99% 48.08%-0.53 -10.8 11
2025-07-12 @ Turan W 2-143.3 1321 1181 48.08% 28.99% 22.93%+0.53 +10.7 19
2025-07-12 Yelimay D 1-152.4 1131 1378 13.98% 26.64% 59.38%-1.11 +4.3 13
2025-07-12 @ Ulytau D 1-152.4 1378 1131 59.38% 26.64% 13.98%+1.11 -4.3 25
2025-07-13 Astana W 1-053.8 1395 1552 21.18% 28.71% 50.11%-0.62 +20.7 23
2025-07-13 @ Ordabasy L 0-153.8 1552 1395 50.11% 28.71% 21.18%+0.62 -20.7 37
2025-07-13 Okzhetpes W 2-145.0 1509 1355 58.65% 26.85% 14.49%+1.06 +7.2 34
2025-07-13 @ Tobol L 1-245.0 1355 1509 14.49% 26.85% 58.65%-1.06 -7.2 24
2025-07-13 Zhetysu W 3-138.8 1330 1230 53.18% 28.18% 18.64%+0.77 +15.7 20
2025-07-13 @ Zhenis L 1-338.8 1230 1330 18.64% 28.18% 53.18%-0.77 -15.7 13
2025-07-18 Turan W 7-028.1 1532 1170 74.55% 19.76% 5.70%+2.19 +16.9 40
2025-07-18 @ Astana L 0-728.1 1170 1532 5.70% 19.76% 74.55%-2.19 -16.9 11
2025-07-19 Kaisar D 1-156.6 1543 1244 70.40% 22.08% 7.52%+1.85 -6.1 37
2025-07-19 @ Kairat D 1-156.6 1244 1543 7.52% 22.08% 70.40%-1.85 +6.1 14
2025-07-19 Ulytau W 1-033.4 1348 1135 63.81% 25.10% 11.09%+1.38 +5.9 27
2025-07-19 @ Okzhetpes L 0-133.4 1135 1348 11.09% 25.10% 63.81%-1.38 -5.9 13
2025-07-19 Zhenis L 1-251.6 1374 1345 44.78% 29.33% 25.89%+0.38 -17.7 25
2025-07-19 @ Yelimay W 2-151.6 1345 1374 25.89% 29.33% 44.78%-0.38 +17.8 23
2025-07-20 Atyrau L 0-148.8 1331 1141 61.92% 25.81% 12.28%+1.26 -24.8 19
2025-07-20 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-048.8 1141 1331 12.28% 25.81% 61.92%-1.26 +24.8 8
2025-07-20 Ordabasy W 1-048.1 1214 1416 17.23% 27.80% 54.97%-0.86 +22.4 16
2025-07-20 @ Zhetysu L 0-148.1 1416 1214 54.97% 27.80% 17.23%+0.86 -22.4 23
2025-07-20 Tobol D 0-056.3 1475 1516 35.34% 29.73% 34.94%+0.01 -0.0 33
2025-07-20 @ Aktobe D 0-056.3 1516 1475 34.94% 29.73% 35.34%-0.01 +0.0 35
2025-07-25 Okzhetpes D 0-048.8 1363 1354 42.31% 29.52% 28.17%+0.28 -1.3 24
2025-07-25 @ Zhenis D 0-048.8 1354 1363 28.17% 29.52% 42.31%-0.28 +1.3 28
2025-07-26 Kairat L 1-356.4 1516 1537 38.29% 29.69% 32.02%+0.12 -27.2 35
2025-07-26 @ Tobol W 3-156.4 1537 1516 32.02% 29.69% 38.29%-0.12 +27.2 40
2025-07-26 Kyzylzhar W 1-042.9 1250 1306 33.10% 29.71% 37.19%-0.08 +16.3 17
2025-07-26 @ Kaisar L 0-142.9 1306 1250 37.19% 29.71% 33.10%+0.08 -16.3 19
2025-07-26 Zhetysu W 3-031.1 1356 1237 55.22% 27.74% 17.03%+0.87 +24.3 28
2025-07-26 @ Yelimay L 0-331.1 1237 1356 17.03% 27.74% 55.22%-0.87 -24.3 16
2025-07-27 Ordabasy L 0-429.5 1153 1393 14.39% 26.81% 58.79%-1.07 -27.2 11
2025-07-27 @ Turan W 4-029.5 1393 1153 58.79% 26.81% 14.39%+1.07 +27.2 26
2025-08-02 Tobol L 0-235.6 1290 1489 17.43% 27.86% 54.71%-0.85 -17.1 19
2025-08-02 @ Kyzylzhar W 2-035.6 1489 1290 54.71% 27.86% 17.43%+0.85 +17.1 38
2025-08-02 Ulytau W 1-030.3 1564 1130 78.83% 17.06% 4.11%+2.58 +1.9 43
2025-08-02 @ Kairat L 0-130.3 1130 1564 4.11% 17.06% 78.83%-2.58 -1.9 13
2025-08-02 Yelimay D 1-153.4 1355 1380 37.62% 29.70% 32.68%+0.09 -0.4 29
2025-08-02 @ Okzhetpes D 1-153.4 1380 1355 32.68% 29.70% 37.62%-0.09 +0.4 29
2025-08-03 Atyrau D 2-259.0 1421 1166 67.15% 23.68% 9.17%+1.61 -4.2 27
2025-08-03 @ Ordabasy D 2-259.0 1166 1421 9.17% 23.68% 67.15%-1.61 +4.2 9
2025-08-03 Turan W 1-036.7 1212 1126 51.74% 28.44% 19.82%+0.70 +10.1 19
2025-08-03 @ Zhetysu L 0-136.7 1126 1212 19.82% 28.44% 51.74%-0.70 -10.1 11
2025-08-03 Zhenis L 0-248.1 1475 1362 54.64% 27.87% 17.48%+0.84 -42.0 33
2025-08-03 @ Aktobe W 2-048.1 1362 1475 17.48% 27.87% 54.64%-0.84 +42.0 27
2025-08-09 Zhetysu FW45.8 1355 1222 56.54% 27.43% 16.03%+0.95 +0.0 32
2025-08-09 @ Okzhetpes FL45.8 1222 1355 16.03% 27.43% 56.54%-0.95 +0.0 19
2025-08-09 Kyzylzhar D 1-151.4 1128 1273 22.35% 28.90% 48.75%-0.56 +2.3 14
2025-08-09 @ Ulytau D 1-151.4 1273 1128 48.75% 28.90% 22.35%+0.56 -2.3 20
2025-08-09 Turan D 1-151.3 1170 1116 48.02% 28.99% 22.99%+0.52 -2.2 10
2025-08-09 @ Atyrau D 1-151.3 1116 1170 22.99% 28.99% 48.02%-0.52 +2.2 12
2025-08-10 Aktobe W 2-151.1 1380 1433 33.67% 29.72% 36.61%-0.06 +15.2 32
2025-08-10 @ Yelimay L 1-251.1 1433 1380 36.61% 29.72% 33.67%+0.06 -15.2 33
2025-08-10 Ordabasy D 1-152.9 1266 1416 21.83% 28.82% 49.35%-0.59 +2.4 18
2025-08-10 @ Kaisar D 1-152.9 1416 1266 49.35% 28.82% 21.83%+0.59 -2.4 28
2025-08-16 Kaisar W 1-045.7 1118 1268 21.84% 28.82% 49.34%-0.59 +20.4 15
2025-08-16 @ Turan L 0-145.7 1268 1118 49.34% 28.82% 21.84%+0.59 -20.4 18
2025-08-16 Yelimay L 2-366.6 1566 1396 60.13% 26.41% 13.47%+1.15 -21.7 43
2025-08-16 @ Kairat W 3-266.6 1396 1566 13.47% 26.41% 60.13%-1.15 +21.7 35
2025-08-16 Zhenis D 1-152.8 1271 1404 23.66% 29.08% 47.26%-0.49 +2.1 21
2025-08-16 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-152.8 1404 1271 47.26% 29.08% 23.66%+0.49 -2.1 28
2025-08-17 Atyrau D 0-047.0 1222 1168 48.03% 28.99% 22.97%+0.52 -2.5 20
2025-08-17 @ Zhetysu D 0-047.0 1168 1222 22.97% 28.99% 48.03%-0.52 +2.5 11
2025-08-17 Okzhetpes W 2-145.6 1418 1355 49.08% 28.85% 22.06%+0.57 +10.4 36
2025-08-17 @ Aktobe L 1-245.6 1355 1418 22.06% 28.85% 49.08%-0.57 -10.4 32
2025-08-17 Tobol L 2-356.5 1414 1506 28.42% 29.53% 42.05%-0.27 -12.0 28
2025-08-17 @ Ordabasy W 3-256.5 1506 1414 42.05% 29.53% 28.42%+0.27 +12.0 41
2025-08-17 Ulytau W 4-024.7 1548 1130 77.95% 17.64% 4.41%+2.50 +7.4 43
2025-08-17 @ Astana L 0-424.7 1130 1548 4.41% 17.64% 77.95%-2.50 -7.4 14
2025-08-23 Astana W 3-264.0 1402 1556 21.46% 28.76% 49.78%-0.61 +18.4 31
2025-08-23 @ Zhenis L 2-364.0 1556 1402 49.78% 28.76% 21.46%+0.61 -18.4 43
2025-08-23 Atyrau D 0-047.2 1248 1170 50.73% 28.61% 20.66%+0.65 -3.0 19
2025-08-23 @ Kaisar D 0-047.2 1170 1248 20.66% 28.61% 50.73%-0.65 +3.0 12
2025-08-23 Kyzylzhar W 2-033.2 1417 1273 57.76% 27.11% 15.14%+1.01 +15.0 38
2025-08-23 @ Yelimay L 0-233.2 1273 1417 15.14% 27.11% 57.76%-1.01 -15.0 21
2025-08-23 Turan W 2-027.5 1518 1138 75.68% 19.07% 5.25%+2.29 +4.8 44
2025-08-23 @ Tobol L 0-227.5 1138 1518 5.25% 19.07% 75.68%-2.29 -4.8 15
2025-08-24 Ordabasy W 2-154.2 1123 1402 12.04% 25.67% 62.29%-1.29 +23.5 17
2025-08-24 @ Ulytau L 1-254.2 1402 1123 62.29% 25.67% 12.04%+1.29 -23.5 28
2025-08-24 Zhetysu W 3-244.3 1428 1220 63.47% 25.23% 11.30%+1.36 +5.3 39
2025-08-24 @ Aktobe L 2-344.3 1220 1428 11.30% 25.23% 63.47%-1.36 -5.4 20
2025-08-28 Kaisar W 5-132.5 1537 1245 69.93% 22.32% 7.75%+1.81 +11.9 46
2025-08-28 @ Astana L 1-532.5 1245 1537 7.75% 22.32% 69.93%-1.81 -11.9 19
2025-08-31 Kairat L 0-141.7 1344 1544 17.38% 27.84% 54.78%-0.85 -9.0 32
2025-08-31 @ Okzhetpes W 1-041.7 1544 1344 54.78% 27.84% 17.38%+0.85 +9.0 46
2025-09-13 Okzhetpes W 3-145.9 1258 1335 30.31% 29.63% 40.06%-0.19 +28.2 24
2025-09-13 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-345.9 1335 1258 40.06% 29.63% 30.31%+0.19 -28.2 32
2025-09-13 Tobol W 1-051.3 1173 1523 8.77% 23.32% 67.91%-1.67 +26.8 15
2025-09-13 @ Atyrau L 0-151.3 1523 1173 67.91% 23.32% 8.77%+1.67 -26.8 44
2025-09-13 Ulytau D 1-151.1 1134 1146 39.35% 29.66% 31.00%+0.16 -0.7 16
2025-09-13 @ Turan D 1-151.1 1146 1134 31.00% 29.66% 39.35%-0.16 +0.7 18
2025-09-13 Zhenis W 2-150.3 1378 1420 35.26% 29.73% 35.02%+0.00 +14.7 31
2025-09-13 @ Ordabasy L 1-250.3 1420 1378 35.02% 29.73% 35.26%+0.00 -14.7 31
2025-09-14 Aktobe W 1-045.0 1553 1434 55.24% 27.74% 17.02%+0.88 +8.9 49
2025-09-14 @ Kairat L 0-145.0 1434 1553 17.02% 27.74% 55.24%-0.88 -8.9 39
2025-09-14 Yelimay D 3-370.0 1549 1432 55.00% 27.79% 17.21%+0.86 -2.1 47
2025-09-14 @ Astana D 3-370.0 1432 1549 17.21% 27.79% 55.00%-0.86 +2.1 39
2025-09-16 Kaisar D 1-151.3 1215 1233 38.54% 29.68% 31.78%+0.13 -0.6 21
2025-09-16 @ Zhetysu D 1-151.3 1233 1215 31.78% 29.68% 38.54%-0.13 +0.6 20
2025-09-19 Astana L 2-362.7 1496 1547 33.92% 29.72% 36.36%-0.05 -13.7 44
2025-09-19 @ Tobol W 3-262.7 1547 1496 36.36% 29.72% 33.92%+0.05 +13.7 50
2025-09-20 Aktobe W 2-154.4 1147 1425 12.11% 25.71% 62.18%-1.28 +23.5 21
2025-09-20 @ Ulytau L 1-254.4 1425 1147 62.18% 25.71% 12.11%+1.28 -23.5 39
2025-09-22 Zhenis W 3-145.2 1562 1405 58.90% 26.78% 14.32%+1.08 +12.3 52
2025-09-22 @ Kairat L 1-345.2 1405 1562 14.32% 26.78% 58.90%-1.08 -12.4 31
2025-09-24 Ordabasy W 1-042.1 1483 1393 52.05% 28.39% 19.56%+0.71 +10.0 47
2025-09-24 @ Tobol L 0-142.1 1393 1483 19.56% 28.39% 52.05%-0.71 -10.0 31
2025-09-27 Atyrau L 1-540.4 1170 1200 36.94% 29.71% 33.35%+0.07 -48.4 21
2025-09-27 @ Ulytau W 5-140.4 1200 1170 33.35% 29.71% 36.94%-0.07 +48.4 18
2025-09-27 Kyzylzhar W 1-037.4 1401 1286 54.85% 27.83% 17.33%+0.85 +9.0 42
2025-09-27 @ Aktobe L 0-137.4 1286 1401 17.33% 27.83% 54.85%-0.85 -9.0 24
2025-09-27 Turan W 6-335.7 1393 1133 67.56% 23.49% 8.95%+1.64 +8.7 34
2025-09-27 @ Zhenis L 3-635.7 1133 1393 8.95% 23.49% 67.56%-1.64 -8.7 16
2025-09-28 Astana L 1-244.7 1307 1561 13.53% 26.44% 60.03%-1.15 -6.8 32
2025-09-28 @ Okzhetpes W 2-144.7 1561 1307 60.03% 26.44% 13.53%+1.15 +6.8 53
2025-09-28 Kaisar W 1-034.1 1493 1234 67.47% 23.53% 9.00%+1.63 +4.7 50
2025-09-28 @ Tobol L 0-134.1 1234 1493 9.00% 23.53% 67.47%-1.63 -4.7 20
2025-09-28 Ordabasy W 2-147.0 1435 1383 47.65% 29.04% 23.31%+0.51 +10.9 42
2025-09-28 @ Yelimay L 1-247.0 1383 1435 23.31% 29.04% 47.65%-0.51 -10.9 31
2025-10-05 Zhetysu W 5-028.1 1574 1214 74.46% 19.81% 5.73%+2.18 +12.4 55
2025-10-05 @ Kairat L 0-528.1 1214 1574 5.73% 19.81% 74.46%-2.18 -12.4 21
2025-10-17 Kairat L 0-137.9 1277 1587 10.49% 24.69% 64.82%-1.45 -5.5 24
2025-10-17 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-037.9 1587 1277 64.82% 24.69% 10.49%+1.45 +5.5 58
2025-10-18 Kaisar D 1-151.2 1122 1229 26.61% 29.40% 43.99%-0.35 +1.5 22
2025-10-18 @ Ulytau D 1-151.2 1229 1122 43.99% 29.40% 26.61%+0.35 -1.5 21
2025-10-18 Yelimay L 3-636.5 1124 1445 9.96% 24.31% 65.73%-1.51 -9.7 16
2025-10-18 @ Turan W 6-336.5 1445 1124 65.73% 24.31% 9.96%+1.51 +9.7 45
2025-10-18 Zhenis D 1-152.6 1249 1402 21.58% 28.78% 49.64%-0.60 +2.5 19
2025-10-18 @ Atyrau D 1-152.6 1402 1249 49.64% 28.78% 21.58%+0.60 -2.5 35
2025-10-19 Aktobe W 5-351.2 1568 1410 58.95% 26.77% 14.28%+1.08 +10.4 56
2025-10-19 @ Astana L 3-551.2 1410 1568 14.28% 26.77% 58.95%-1.08 -10.4 42
2025-10-19 Okzhetpes W 7-136.2 1372 1300 50.09% 28.71% 21.20%+0.62 +46.2 34
2025-10-19 @ Ordabasy L 1-736.2 1300 1372 21.20% 28.71% 50.09%-0.62 -46.2 32
2025-10-19 Tobol L 1-240.0 1202 1497 11.18% 25.16% 63.66%-1.37 -5.6 21
2025-10-19 @ Zhetysu W 2-140.0 1497 1202 63.66% 25.16% 11.18%+1.37 +5.6 53
2025-10-26 Astana D 1-166.7 1592 1578 42.95% 29.47% 27.57%+0.31 -1.3 59
2025-10-26 @ Kairat D 1-166.7 1578 1592 27.57% 29.47% 42.95%-0.31 +1.3 57
2025-10-26 Atyrau W 3-245.1 1455 1251 63.10% 25.37% 11.52%+1.33 +5.5 48
2025-10-26 @ Yelimay L 2-345.1 1251 1455 11.52% 25.37% 63.10%-1.33 -5.5 19
2025-10-26 Kaisar D 2-258.5 1399 1227 60.28% 26.36% 13.36%+1.16 -3.3 36
2025-10-26 @ Zhenis D 2-258.5 1227 1399 13.36% 26.36% 60.28%-1.16 +3.3 22
2025-10-26 Kyzylzhar L 0-140.5 1196 1271 30.60% 29.64% 39.76%-0.18 -14.2 21
2025-10-26 @ Zhetysu W 1-040.5 1271 1196 39.76% 29.64% 30.60%+0.18 +14.2 27
2025-10-26 Ordabasy D 2-260.4 1400 1419 38.53% 29.68% 31.79%+0.13 -0.4 43
2025-10-26 @ Aktobe D 2-260.4 1419 1400 31.79% 29.68% 38.53%-0.13 +0.4 35
2025-10-26 Tobol D 2-259.7 1123 1503 7.68% 22.25% 70.07%-1.83 +4.5 23
2025-10-26 @ Ulytau D 2-259.7 1503 1123 70.07% 22.25% 7.68%+1.83 -4.5 54
2025-10-26 Turan W 4-347.7 1254 1115 57.27% 27.24% 15.49%+0.99 +7.1 35
2025-10-26 @ Okzhetpes L 3-447.7 1115 1254 15.49% 27.24% 57.27%-0.99 -7.1 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-05-24 6.38% Ulytau 1088 1 @ Ordabasy 1424 0
2 2025-09-13 8.77% @ Atyrau 1173 1 Tobol 1523 0
3 2025-05-25 10.87% @ Zhetysu 1202 2 Aktobe 1504 1
4 2025-08-24 12.04% @ Ulytau 1123 2 Ordabasy 1402 1
5 2025-09-20 12.11% @ Ulytau 1147 2 Aktobe 1425 1
6 2025-07-20 12.28% Atyrau 1141 1 @ Kyzylzhar 1331 0
7 2025-05-24 12.80% Okzhetpes 1342 2 @ Kairat 1523 1
8 2025-08-16 13.47% Yelimay 1396 3 @ Kairat 1566 2
9 2025-05-04 16.48% Okzhetpes 1299 2 @ Yelimay 1426 0
10 2025-07-20 17.23% @ Zhetysu 1214 1 Ordabasy 1416 0
11 2025-08-03 17.48% Zhenis 1362 2 @ Aktobe 1475 0
12 2025-05-18 19.75% @ Yelimay 1372 1 Kairat 1545 0
13 2025-07-13 21.18% @ Ordabasy 1395 1 Astana 1552 0
14 2025-05-31 21.23% @ Ulytau 1116 2 Turan 1272 1
15 2025-08-23 21.46% @ Zhenis 1402 3 Astana 1556 2
16 2025-08-16 21.84% @ Turan 1118 1 Kaisar 1268 0
17 2025-05-10 21.93% Tobol 1441 3 @ Astana 1505 1
18 2025-04-05 23.81% Turan 1280 3 @ Kyzylzhar 1326 2
19 2025-06-14 24.16% Ulytau 1135 1 @ Atyrau 1179 0
20 2025-07-19 25.89% Zhenis 1345 2 @ Yelimay 1374 1
21 2025-03-08 27.41% @ Okzhetpes 1286 2 Atyrau 1386 1
22 2025-09-13 30.31% @ Kyzylzhar 1258 3 Okzhetpes 1335 1
23 2025-04-19 30.43% @ Tobol 1409 2 Aktobe 1486 0
24 2025-06-14 30.98% Zhenis 1265 2 @ Turan 1253 0
25 2025-07-26 32.02% Kairat 1537 3 @ Tobol 1516 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-03-30 56.02 Aktobe 4 1412 35.20% @ Atyrau 0 1369 35.07% 29.73%
2 2025-09-27 48.43 Atyrau 5 1200 33.35% @ Ulytau 1 1170 36.94% 29.71%
3 2025-10-19 46.20 @ Ordabasy 7 1372 50.09% Okzhetpes 1 1300 21.20% 28.71%
4 2025-03-08 45.45 @ Kairat 4 1427 44.27% Ordabasy 0 1402 26.35% 29.38%
5 2025-05-11 44.61 @ Ordabasy 5 1379 51.72% Kaisar 0 1293 19.83% 28.44%
6 2025-05-04 42.88 Okzhetpes 2 1299 16.48% @ Yelimay 0 1426 55.94% 27.57%
7 2025-08-03 42.00 Zhenis 2 1362 17.48% @ Aktobe 0 1475 54.64% 27.87%
8 2025-05-10 33.25 Tobol 3 1441 21.93% @ Astana 1 1505 49.24% 28.83%
9 2025-04-19 32.46 @ Tobol 2 1409 30.43% Aktobe 0 1486 39.94% 29.63%
10 2025-06-14 32.11 Zhenis 2 1265 30.98% @ Turan 0 1253 39.37% 29.66%
11 2025-04-26 30.41 Yelimay 3 1395 48.92% @ Zhetysu 0 1248 22.21% 28.88%
12 2025-03-02 30.08 @ Turan 2 1267 34.27% Okzhetpes 0 1316 36.01% 29.72%
13 2025-09-13 28.18 @ Kyzylzhar 3 1258 30.31% Okzhetpes 1 1335 40.06% 29.63%
14 2025-05-24 28.17 Ulytau 1 1088 6.38% @ Ordabasy 0 1424 72.92% 20.70%
15 2025-07-26 27.24 Kairat 3 1537 32.02% @ Tobol 1 1516 38.29% 29.69%
16 2025-07-27 27.20 Ordabasy 4 1393 58.79% @ Turan 0 1153 14.39% 26.81%
17 2025-09-13 26.79 @ Atyrau 1 1173 8.77% Tobol 0 1523 67.91% 23.32%
18 2025-03-09 26.23 @ Yelimay 2 1338 40.65% Kaisar 0 1342 29.74% 29.60%
19 2025-03-09 25.26 Astana 2 1443 42.20% @ Kyzylzhar 0 1350 28.28% 29.52%
20 2025-05-30 25.10 Astana 2 1489 42.45% @ Yelimay 0 1393 28.04% 29.51%
21 2025-07-20 24.84 Atyrau 1 1141 12.28% @ Kyzylzhar 0 1331 61.92% 25.81%
22 2025-07-26 24.29 @ Yelimay 3 1356 55.22% Zhetysu 0 1237 17.03% 27.74%
23 2025-05-25 24.14 @ Zhetysu 2 1202 10.87% Aktobe 1 1504 64.18% 24.95%
24 2025-04-06 23.65 Kairat 4 1481 51.37% @ Atyrau 1 1313 20.13% 28.50%
25 2025-08-24 23.54 @ Ulytau 2 1123 12.04% Ordabasy 1 1402 62.29% 25.67%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-09-14 70.0 @ Astana 3 1549 55.00% Yelimay 3 1432 17.21% 27.79%
2 2025-06-29 66.8 @ Astana 3 1545 65.09% Kyzylzhar 3 1316 10.33% 24.58%
3 2025-10-26 66.7 @ Kairat 1 1592 42.95% Astana 1 1578 27.57% 29.47%
4 2025-08-16 66.6 Yelimay 3 1396 13.47% @ Kairat 2 1566 60.13% 26.41%
5 2025-08-23 64.0 @ Zhenis 3 1402 21.46% Astana 2 1556 49.78% 28.76%
6 2025-09-19 62.7 Astana 3 1547 36.36% @ Tobol 2 1496 33.92% 29.72%
7 2025-06-29 61.4 @ Tobol 2 1501 61.77% Zhenis 2 1313 12.37% 25.86%
8 2025-10-26 60.4 @ Aktobe 2 1400 38.53% Ordabasy 2 1419 31.79% 29.68%
9 2025-06-14 60.1 @ Zhetysu 2 1228 11.57% Kairat 2 1516 63.04% 25.40%
10 2025-10-26 59.7 @ Ulytau 2 1123 7.68% Tobol 2 1503 70.07% 22.25%
11 2025-08-03 59.0 @ Ordabasy 2 1421 67.15% Atyrau 2 1166 9.17% 23.68%
12 2025-05-24 58.8 Okzhetpes 2 1342 12.80% @ Kairat 1 1523 61.12% 26.08%
13 2025-10-26 58.5 @ Zhenis 2 1399 60.28% Kaisar 2 1227 13.36% 26.36%
14 2025-05-30 57.9 @ Zhenis 2 1264 23.77% Ordabasy 2 1396 47.13% 29.10%
15 2025-03-29 57.5 @ Kaisar 2 1315 42.71% Okzhetpes 2 1303 27.80% 29.49%
16 2025-05-30 56.9 Kairat 2 1500 32.03% @ Aktobe 1 1480 38.28% 29.69%
17 2025-05-31 56.9 @ Kaisar 2 1272 46.92% Zhetysu 2 1226 23.96% 29.12%
18 2025-07-19 56.6 @ Kairat 1 1543 70.40% Kaisar 1 1244 7.52% 22.08%
19 2025-03-02 56.5 @ Astana 1 1444 43.61% Kairat 1 1425 26.96% 29.43%
20 2025-08-17 56.5 Tobol 3 1506 42.05% @ Ordabasy 2 1414 28.42% 29.53%
21 2025-07-26 56.4 Kairat 3 1537 32.02% @ Tobol 1 1516 38.29% 29.69%
22 2025-07-20 56.3 @ Aktobe 0 1475 35.34% Tobol 0 1516 34.94% 29.73%
23 2025-05-25 56.0 @ Zhetysu 2 1202 10.87% Aktobe 1 1504 64.18% 24.95%
24 2025-04-05 55.9 Turan 3 1280 23.81% @ Kyzylzhar 2 1326 47.08% 29.10%
25 2025-05-10 55.5 Tobol 3 1441 21.93% @ Astana 1 1505 49.24% 28.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-08-17 24.7 @ Astana 4 1548 77.95% Ulytau 0 1130 4.41% 17.64%
2 2025-07-04 26.8 @ Kairat 4 1531 73.13% Turan 0 1192 6.29% 20.58%
3 2025-08-23 27.5 @ Tobol 2 1518 75.68% Turan 0 1138 5.25% 19.07%
4 2025-04-06 27.7 @ Yelimay 3 1366 65.30% Ulytau 0 1136 10.20% 24.49%
5 2025-05-30 27.9 @ Tobol 5 1483 69.47% Atyrau 0 1197 7.98% 22.56%
6 2025-07-18 28.1 @ Astana 7 1532 74.55% Turan 0 1170 5.70% 19.76%
7 2025-10-05 28.1 @ Kairat 5 1574 74.46% Zhetysu 0 1214 5.73% 19.81%
8 2025-07-05 28.3 @ Aktobe 2 1469 71.91% Atyrau 0 1148 6.82% 21.27%
9 2025-05-18 28.5 Astana 2 1472 69.92% @ Ulytau 0 1095 7.75% 22.33%
10 2025-03-01 29.2 @ Tobol 2 1389 66.97% Ulytau 0 1137 9.27% 23.76%
11 2025-07-27 29.5 Ordabasy 4 1393 58.79% @ Turan 0 1153 14.39% 26.81%
12 2025-08-02 30.3 @ Kairat 1 1564 78.83% Ulytau 0 1130 4.11% 17.06%
13 2025-03-30 30.8 @ Astana 3 1468 62.08% Zhetysu 0 1276 12.17% 25.75%
14 2025-04-16 30.8 @ Kairat 4 1505 64.05% Atyrau 0 1289 10.94% 25.01%
15 2025-04-26 30.8 @ Aktobe 1 1453 73.33% Ulytau 0 1111 6.20% 20.47%
16 2025-06-29 30.8 Aktobe 3 1447 58.20% @ Turan 0 1213 14.82% 26.99%
17 2025-05-03 30.9 Kairat 4 1531 73.06% @ Ulytau 1 1108 6.32% 20.62%
18 2025-07-05 31.0 @ Zhenis 2 1316 60.29% Ulytau 0 1145 13.35% 26.35%
19 2025-07-26 31.1 @ Yelimay 3 1356 55.22% Zhetysu 0 1237 17.03% 27.74%
20 2025-06-21 32.0 @ Zhenis 2 1297 57.13% Atyrau 0 1159 15.60% 27.28%
21 2025-08-28 32.5 @ Astana 5 1537 69.93% Kaisar 1 1245 7.75% 22.32%
22 2025-07-06 32.8 Astana 2 1541 64.06% @ Zhetysu 0 1241 10.94% 25.00%
23 2025-05-11 33.1 @ Ordabasy 5 1379 51.72% Kaisar 0 1293 19.83% 28.44%
24 2025-08-23 33.2 @ Yelimay 2 1417 57.76% Kyzylzhar 0 1273 15.14% 27.11%
25 2025-04-26 33.4 Yelimay 3 1395 48.92% @ Zhetysu 0 1248 22.21% 28.88%