Home / Leagues / Latvia / Virsliga / 1993
‹ ›

1993 Virsliga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Skonto

4.42 points above expected

34 points · 29.58 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valmiera

5.85 points below expected

1 points · 6.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 18 17 0 1 34 63 7 +56 29.58 +4.42
2 Olimpija Riga 18 12 2 4 26 31 17 +14 22.93 +3.07
3 Jelgava 18 12 2 4 26 34 11 +23 24.69 +1.31
4 Pardaugava Riga 18 10 4 4 24 29 13 +16 23.28 +0.72
5 Torpedo Riga 18 6 7 5 19 19 13 +6 16.99 +2.01
6 Dinaburg 18 7 5 6 19 22 17 +5 15.64 +3.36
7 Olimpija Liepaja 18 3 6 9 12 24 46 -22 13.17 -1.17
8 DAG Riga 18 3 4 11 10 15 29 -14 15.81 -5.81
9 Blazma 18 3 3 12 9 12 36 -24 11.06 -2.06
10 Valmiera 18 0 1 17 1 14 74 -60 6.85 -5.85

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Skonto 34 29.58 +4.42
2 Dinaburg 19 15.64 +3.36
3 Olimpija Riga 26 22.93 +3.07
4 Torpedo Riga 19 16.99 +2.01
5 Jelgava 26 24.69 +1.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valmiera 1 6.85 -5.85
2 DAG Riga 10 15.81 -5.81
3 Blazma 9 11.06 -2.06
4 Olimpija Liepaja 12 13.17 -1.17
5 Pardaugava Riga 24 23.28 +0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skonto 15 Apr 24 – Oct 9 1 in 193
2 Olimpija Riga 4 Aug 14 – Sep 12 1 in 13
3 Blazma 2 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 13
4 Jelgava 6 Sep 22 – Oct 17 1 in 7
5 Torpedo Riga 3 Aug 22 – Sep 19 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valmiera 16 May 8 – Oct 23 1 in 172
2 Skonto 1 Oct 13 – Oct 13 1 in 45
3 DAG Riga 2 Apr 24 – May 8 1 in 15
4 Olimpija Liepaja 5 Aug 23 – Sep 26 1 in 10
5 Blazma 4 Jun 28 – Aug 22 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Torpedo Riga 8 Apr 24 – Jul 25 1 in 241
2 Olimpija Liepaja 5 Jul 17 – Aug 13 1 in 35
3 Dinaburg 4 May 8 – Jun 25 1 in 8
4 Skonto 15 Apr 24 – Oct 9 1 in 5
5 Olimpija Riga 4 Aug 14 – Sep 12 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 DAG Riga 6 Apr 24 – Jun 25 1 in 39
2 Blazma 9 May 1 – Aug 22 1 in 15
3 Torpedo Riga 6 Jun 25 – Aug 14 1 in 10
4 Olimpija Liepaja 9 Aug 7 – Oct 10 1 in 6
5 Valmiera 18 Apr 24 – Oct 23 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1989 34 -34 8 8.6 -0.6
Jelgava 1786 26 +71 10 8.2 +1.8
Olimpija Riga 1704 26 +22 8 7.4 +0.6
Pardaugava Riga 1738 24 +79 7 6.2 +0.8
Dinaburg 1531 19 +86 5 3.0 +2.0
Torpedo Riga 1512 19 -69 3 4.6 -1.6
Olimpija Liepaja 1225 12 -57 3 3.8 -0.8
DAG Riga 1289 10 -115 3 5.1 -2.1
Blazma 1309 9 -4 2 2.5 -0.5
Valmiera 932 1 -68 0 1.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BLA DR DIN JEL OL OR PR SKO TR VAL
Blazma —
1-1-0
1.51
0-1-1
1.77
0-0-2
0.84
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
0.77
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
0.49
0-0-2
1.91
1-1-0
3.84
DAG Riga
0-1-1
4.09
 —
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-2
1.10
0-2-0
3.66
0-0-2
1.23
0-1-1
1.25
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
3.04
2-0-0
4.52
Dinaburg
1-1-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.62
 —
0-0-2
1.54
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
1.79
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
0.57
0-2-0
2.23
2-0-0
4.47
Jelgava
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
4.06
 —
1-1-0
4.73
0-0-2
3.16
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-2
1.98
1-1-0
4.06
2-0-0
5.04
Olimpija Liepaja
1-0-1
2.83
0-2-0
1.94
0-1-1
2.95
0-1-1
0.88
 —
0-0-2
0.80
0-1-1
0.93
0-0-2
0.59
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
4.47
Olimpija Riga
2-0-0
4.84
2-0-0
4.38
1-1-0
3.81
2-0-0
2.44
2-0-0
4.82
 —
0-0-2
2.83
0-0-2
1.22
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.87
Pardaugava Riga
2-0-0
4.77
1-1-0
4.35
2-0-0
3.71
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
2.77
 —
0-0-2
1.19
0-2-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.82
Skonto
2-0-0
5.14
2-0-0
4.63
1-0-1
5.05
2-0-0
3.62
2-0-0
5.03
2-0-0
4.38
2-0-0
4.42
 —
2-0-0
4.91
2-0-0
5.31
Torpedo Riga
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
2.56
0-2-0
3.37
0-1-1
1.55
1-1-0
3.36
0-1-1
1.93
0-2-0
1.25
0-0-2
0.70
 —
2-0-0
4.86
Valmiera
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
1.14
0-0-2
0.58
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
0.80
0-0-2
0.36
0-0-2
0.75
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +5.7
Allowed 0.78 -4.2
Differential 0.96 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%3.89%6.11%3.33%1.11%36.67%
111.11%4.44%3.33%3.89%2.78%3.89%29.44%
23.89%3.33%2.22%———9.44%
36.11%3.89%—1.11%0.56%0.56%12.22%
43.33%2.78%—0.56%——6.67%
5+1.11%3.89%—0.56%——5.56%
Total36.67%29.44%9.44%12.22%6.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.74 1.74 2.66
CV 1.19 1.19 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%11.11%—11.11%—55.56%
1—5.56%—11.11%—11.11%27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.00 -1.33
SD 0.91 1.78 2.03
CV 1.36 0.89 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%27.78%11.11%11.11%——61.11%
15.56%5.56%——11.11%—22.22%
2———————
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%11.11%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.61 -0.78
SD 1.38 1.29 1.83
CV 1.66 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
2——5.56%———5.56%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.94 +0.28
SD 1.56 1.06 2.05
CV 1.27 1.12 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
127.78%5.56%—5.56%——38.89%
2—5.56%————5.56%
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total50.00%44.44%—5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.61 +1.28
SD 1.84 0.78 1.99
CV 0.98 1.27 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%16.67%—5.56%38.89%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%—11.11%33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%16.67%11.11%33.33%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.56 -1.22
SD 1.78 1.89 2.51
CV 1.34 0.74 —
Max 7 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
127.78%5.56%11.11%———44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total50.00%22.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.94 +0.78
SD 1.49 1.21 1.96
CV 0.86 1.28 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
111.11%—5.56%———16.67%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.72 +0.89
SD 1.65 0.89 2.00
CV 1.02 1.24 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%—————11.11%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
316.67%11.11%————27.78%
416.67%—————16.67%
5+5.56%16.67%————22.22%
Total61.11%38.89%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 0.39 +3.11
SD 2.48 0.50 2.52
CV 0.71 1.29 —
Max 11 1 +11
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
033.33%16.67%——5.56%—55.56%
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total61.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.72 +0.33
SD 1.39 1.18 1.94
CV 1.32 1.63 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———16.67%11.11%5.56%33.33%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%16.67%16.67%61.11%
2———————
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—5.56%11.11%27.78%27.78%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 4.11 -3.33
SD 0.73 2.25 2.30
CV 0.94 0.55 —
Max 3 11 +0
Min 0 1 -11

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1989 34 29.58 +4.42 99.0% 23 25 28 30 31 33 35
Jelgava 1786 26 24.69 +1.31 75.0% 18 20 23 25 26 30 32
Pardaugava Riga 1738 24 23.28 +0.72 63.0% 13 18 21 23 25 29 31
Olimpija Riga 1704 26 22.93 +3.07 85.0% 14 17 20 23 25 28 31
Dinaburg 1531 19 15.64 +3.36 88.0% 8 10 13 16 18 20 23
Torpedo Riga 1512 19 16.99 +2.01 74.0% 9 12 15 17 20 22 24
Blazma 1309 9 11.06 -2.06 31.0% 4 5 9 11 14 16 20
DAG Riga 1289 10 15.81 -5.81 8.0% 9 10 13 16 18 21 23
Olimpija Liepaja 1225 12 13.17 -1.17 45.0% 6 7 11 13 15 19 21
Valmiera 932 1 6.85 -5.85 0.0% 2 3 5 7 8 12 14

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.33%
Slight Edge
42.22%18.89%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 11.59 Elo pts.
160 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
79%
Skonto, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Runaway
00.210.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.5 * Some Luck: 2.5 to 3.74 * Lucky: 3.74 to 4.99 * Wild Swing: 4.99 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.72 * Close: 0.72 to 1.08 * Off: 1.08 to 1.44 * Way Off: 1.44 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.47 points
Some Luck
03.128
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.902
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Skonto
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Valmiera
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 316.28
2.61
Moderate Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
92%
Wide Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.43
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Some Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.17
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.27
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Skonto79.00%18.00%3.00%———————
Olimpija Riga4.00%19.00%35.00%26.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%——
Jelgava11.00%38.00%34.00%13.00%4.00%—————
Pardaugava Riga6.00%25.00%21.00%32.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
Torpedo Riga——6.00%10.00%28.00%26.00%20.00%7.00%3.00%—
Dinaburg———8.00%22.00%29.00%14.00%22.00%4.00%1.00%
Olimpija Liepaja——1.00%2.00%5.00%12.00%20.00%31.00%24.00%5.00%
DAG Riga———9.00%21.00%20.00%25.00%14.00%9.00%2.00%
Blazma————1.00%4.00%19.00%18.00%45.00%13.00%
Valmiera———————6.00%15.00%79.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Jelgava 100% —
Olimpija Riga 100% —
Pardaugava Riga 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Torpedo Riga 100% —
Dinaburg 99.00% 1.00%
DAG Riga 98.00% 2.00%
Olimpija Liepaja 95.00% 5.00%
Blazma 87.00% 13.00%
Valmiera 21.00% 79.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1993-04-24 Olimpija Liepaja W 3-047.6 1384 1482 29.08% 20.01% 50.92%-0.54 +134.6 2
1993-04-24 @ Dinaburg L 0-347.6 1482 1384 50.92% 20.01% 29.08%+0.54 -134.6 0
1993-04-24 Skonto L 1-364.1 1667 1683 40.22% 20.04% 39.74%-0.03 -65.6 0
1993-04-24 @ Jelgava W 3-164.1 1683 1667 39.74% 20.04% 40.22%+0.03 +65.6 2
1993-04-24 Pardaugava Riga L 1-440.4 1297 1581 11.92% 19.72% 68.36%-1.71 -32.6 0
1993-04-24 @ Valmiera W 4-140.4 1581 1297 68.36% 19.72% 11.92%+1.71 +32.6 2
1993-04-24 Torpedo Riga L 0-159.7 1608 1332 69.91% 19.69% 10.40%+1.80 -67.5 0
1993-04-24 @ DAG Riga W 1-059.7 1332 1608 10.40% 19.69% 69.91%-1.80 +67.5 2
1993-05-01 Valmiera D 1-156.0 1383 1264 57.31% 19.96% 22.72%+0.82 -7.7 1
1993-05-01 @ Blazma D 1-156.0 1264 1383 22.72% 19.96% 57.31%-0.82 +7.7 1
1993-05-01 Torpedo Riga D 0-053.5 1348 1400 35.09% 20.03% 44.88%-0.25 +2.3 1
1993-05-01 @ Olimpija Liepaja D 0-053.5 1400 1348 44.88% 20.03% 35.09%+0.25 -2.3 3
1993-05-01 Dinaburg W 3-049.2 1614 1518 54.73% 19.99% 25.28%+0.67 +75.1 4
1993-05-01 @ Pardaugava Riga L 0-349.2 1518 1614 25.28% 19.99% 54.73%-0.67 -75.1 2
1993-05-08 Blazma D 0-055.0 1443 1375 51.46% 20.01% 28.53%+0.50 -5.6 3
1993-05-08 @ Dinaburg D 0-055.0 1375 1443 28.53% 20.01% 51.46%-0.50 +5.6 2
1993-05-08 Olimpija Riga L 1-243.5 1272 1600 9.52% 19.62% 70.86%-1.98 -10.8 1
1993-05-08 @ Valmiera W 2-143.5 1600 1272 70.86% 19.62% 9.52%+1.98 +10.8 2
1993-05-08 Skonto L 0-350.2 1541 1748 17.61% 19.88% 62.52%-1.23 -54.9 0
1993-05-08 @ DAG Riga W 3-050.2 1748 1541 62.52% 19.88% 17.61%+1.23 +54.9 4
1993-05-09 Pardaugava Riga D 2-272.3 1397 1689 11.51% 19.71% 68.79%-1.75 +10.1 4
1993-05-09 @ Torpedo Riga D 2-272.3 1689 1397 68.79% 19.71% 11.51%+1.75 -10.1 5
1993-05-18 Torpedo Riga L 0-243.9 1381 1408 38.64% 20.04% 41.32%-0.09 -73.4 2
1993-05-18 @ Blazma W 2-043.9 1408 1381 41.32% 20.04% 38.64%+0.09 +73.4 6
1993-05-18 Dinaburg D 1-166.5 1610 1438 62.50% 19.89% 17.61%+1.15 -10.3 3
1993-05-18 @ Olimpija Riga D 1-166.5 1438 1610 17.61% 19.89% 62.50%-1.15 +10.3 4
1993-05-19 Skonto L 0-245.3 1350 1803 4.84% 19.23% 75.93%-2.77 -11.3 1
1993-05-19 @ Olimpija Liepaja W 2-045.3 1803 1350 75.93% 19.23% 4.84%+2.77 +11.3 6
1993-05-27 Olimpija Liepaja D 3-366.9 1486 1339 60.17% 19.93% 19.90%+0.99 -5.7 1
1993-05-27 @ DAG Riga D 3-366.9 1339 1486 19.90% 19.93% 60.17%-0.99 +5.7 2
1993-06-12 DAG Riga W 2-048.9 1679 1480 64.68% 19.85% 15.47%+1.32 +33.8 7
1993-06-12 @ Pardaugava Riga L 0-248.9 1480 1679 15.47% 19.85% 64.68%-1.32 -33.7 1
1993-06-12 Dinaburg L 1-537.1 1261 1448 19.43% 19.91% 60.67%-1.10 -65.2 1
1993-06-12 @ Valmiera W 5-137.1 1448 1261 60.67% 19.91% 19.43%+1.10 +65.2 6
1993-06-13 Skonto L 1-642.9 1307 1815 3.61% 19.03% 77.36%-3.10 -16.4 2
1993-06-13 @ Blazma W 6-142.9 1815 1307 77.36% 19.03% 3.61%+3.10 +16.4 8
1993-06-13 Jelgava W 1-058.7 1600 1601 42.27% 20.04% 37.69%+0.06 +38.2 5
1993-06-13 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-158.7 1601 1600 37.69% 20.04% 42.27%-0.06 -38.2 0
1993-06-16 Olimpija Riga W 4-049.8 1831 1638 64.20% 19.86% 15.94%+1.28 +65.7 10
1993-06-16 @ Skonto L 0-449.8 1638 1831 15.94% 19.86% 64.20%-1.28 -65.7 5
1993-06-16 Valmiera W 4-030.1 1481 1196 70.42% 19.67% 9.91%+1.86 +42.6 8
1993-06-16 @ Torpedo Riga L 0-430.1 1196 1481 9.91% 19.67% 70.42%-1.86 -42.6 1
1993-06-16 Blazma D 0-053.4 1447 1291 60.94% 19.92% 19.14%+1.05 -10.6 2
1993-06-16 @ DAG Riga D 0-053.4 1291 1447 19.14% 19.92% 60.94%-1.05 +10.6 3
1993-06-25 Torpedo Riga D 0-062.3 1513 1524 40.98% 20.04% 38.98%+0.01 -0.5 7
1993-06-25 @ Dinaburg D 0-062.3 1524 1513 38.98% 20.04% 40.98%-0.01 +0.5 9
1993-06-25 DAG Riga W 4-147.7 1573 1436 59.12% 19.94% 20.94%+0.93 +53.9 7
1993-06-25 @ Olimpija Riga L 1-447.7 1436 1573 20.94% 19.94% 59.12%-0.93 -53.9 2
1993-06-25 Pardaugava Riga W 3-051.7 1897 1713 63.47% 19.88% 16.65%+1.22 +52.3 12
1993-06-25 @ Skonto L 0-351.7 1713 1897 16.65% 19.88% 63.47%-1.22 -52.3 7
1993-06-25 Jelgava L 1-631.6 1153 1563 6.12% 19.38% 74.50%-2.49 -27.6 1
1993-06-25 @ Valmiera W 6-131.6 1563 1153 74.50% 19.38% 6.12%+2.49 +27.6 2
1993-06-28 Dinaburg W 3-048.9 1591 1513 52.68% 20.00% 27.32%+0.56 +80.2 4
1993-06-28 @ Jelgava L 0-348.9 1513 1591 27.32% 20.00% 52.68%-0.56 -80.2 7
1993-06-28 Olimpija Liepaja W 4-354.2 1626 1344 70.25% 19.68% 10.07%+1.84 +10.6 9
1993-06-28 @ Olimpija Riga L 3-454.2 1344 1626 10.07% 19.68% 70.25%-1.84 -10.6 2
1993-06-28 Blazma W 1-041.5 1660 1302 73.84% 19.47% 6.69%+2.32 +8.2 9
1993-06-28 @ Pardaugava Riga L 0-141.5 1302 1660 6.69% 19.47% 73.84%-2.32 -8.2 3
1993-06-28 Skonto L 1-541.4 1125 1949 0.62% 17.48% 81.90%-5.08 -2.3 1
1993-06-28 @ Valmiera W 5-141.4 1949 1125 81.90% 17.48% 0.62%+5.08 +2.3 14
1993-07-17 Pardaugava Riga D 0-061.1 1334 1669 9.16% 19.60% 71.24%-2.02 +16.7 3
1993-07-17 @ Olimpija Liepaja D 0-061.1 1669 1334 71.24% 19.60% 9.16%+2.02 -16.7 10
1993-07-20 Olimpija Riga D 0-066.3 1524 1637 27.31% 19.99% 52.69%-0.63 +6.2 10
1993-07-20 @ Torpedo Riga D 0-066.3 1637 1524 52.69% 19.99% 27.31%+0.63 -6.2 10
1993-07-24 Olimpija Liepaja L 0-142.7 1293 1350 34.45% 20.03% 45.52%-0.28 -35.5 3
1993-07-24 @ Blazma W 1-042.7 1350 1293 45.52% 20.03% 34.45%+0.28 +35.5 5
1993-07-24 Pardaugava Riga L 1-265.0 1631 1652 39.43% 20.04% 40.53%-0.06 -37.3 10
1993-07-24 @ Olimpija Riga W 2-165.0 1652 1631 40.53% 20.04% 39.43%+0.06 +37.3 12
1993-07-24 DAG Riga L 1-435.7 1123 1382 13.63% 19.78% 66.59%-1.55 -36.8 1
1993-07-24 @ Valmiera W 4-135.7 1382 1123 66.59% 19.78% 13.63%+1.55 +36.8 4
1993-07-25 Jelgava D 0-067.3 1530 1671 24.14% 19.97% 55.90%-0.81 +7.9 11
1993-07-25 @ Torpedo Riga D 0-067.3 1671 1530 55.90% 19.97% 24.14%+0.81 -7.9 5
1993-07-29 Jelgava L 0-148.4 1419 1663 14.67% 19.81% 65.52%-1.46 -17.0 4
1993-07-29 @ DAG Riga W 1-048.4 1663 1419 65.52% 19.81% 14.67%+1.46 +17.0 7
1993-07-31 Valmiera W 7-335.5 1386 1086 71.17% 19.63% 9.20%+1.95 +25.7 7
1993-07-31 @ Olimpija Liepaja L 3-735.5 1086 1386 9.20% 19.63% 71.17%-1.95 -25.7 1
1993-07-31 Torpedo Riga W 3-154.1 1951 1538 75.73% 19.29% 4.98%+2.66 +10.1 16
1993-07-31 @ Skonto L 1-354.1 1538 1951 4.98% 19.29% 75.73%-2.66 -10.1 11
1993-08-01 Dinaburg L 0-147.0 1402 1433 38.07% 20.04% 41.90%-0.12 -38.5 4
1993-08-01 @ DAG Riga W 1-047.0 1433 1402 41.90% 20.04% 38.07%+0.12 +38.5 9
1993-08-02 Jelgava L 0-163.0 1689 1680 43.73% 20.04% 36.23%+0.13 -43.0 12
1993-08-02 @ Pardaugava Riga W 1-063.0 1680 1689 36.23% 20.04% 43.73%-0.13 +43.0 9
1993-08-07 Dinaburg D 2-264.9 1411 1471 34.09% 20.03% 45.88%-0.30 +1.9 8
1993-08-07 @ Olimpija Liepaja D 2-264.9 1471 1411 45.88% 20.03% 34.09%+0.30 -1.9 10
1993-08-07 Valmiera W 3-135.5 1646 1061 79.48% 18.60% 1.93%+3.74 +3.9 14
1993-08-07 @ Pardaugava Riga L 1-335.5 1061 1646 1.93% 18.60% 79.48%-3.74 -3.9 1
1993-08-07 DAG Riga L 0-155.7 1528 1363 61.79% 19.91% 18.30%+1.10 -59.2 11
1993-08-07 @ Torpedo Riga W 1-055.7 1363 1528 18.30% 19.91% 61.79%-1.10 +59.2 6
1993-08-08 Jelgava W 1-054.7 1962 1723 67.56% 19.77% 12.66%+1.56 +14.9 18
1993-08-08 @ Skonto L 0-154.7 1723 1962 12.66% 19.77% 67.56%-1.56 -14.9 9
1993-08-13 Jelgava D 1-169.0 1413 1708 11.31% 19.70% 68.99%-1.77 +13.7 9
1993-08-13 @ Olimpija Liepaja D 1-169.0 1708 1413 68.99% 19.70% 11.31%+1.77 -13.7 10
1993-08-13 DAG Riga W 3-046.3 1976 1423 78.96% 18.74% 2.30%+3.54 +7.9 20
1993-08-13 @ Skonto L 0-346.3 1423 1976 2.30% 18.74% 78.96%-3.54 -7.9 6
1993-08-14 Dinaburg L 1-340.8 1258 1469 17.29% 19.87% 62.84%-1.25 -32.2 3
1993-08-14 @ Blazma W 3-140.8 1469 1258 62.84% 19.87% 17.29%+1.25 +32.2 12
1993-08-14 Valmiera W 3-028.7 1594 1057 78.66% 18.81% 2.52%+3.43 +8.7 12
1993-08-14 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-328.7 1057 1594 2.52% 18.81% 78.66%-3.43 -8.7 1
1993-08-14 Torpedo Riga D 0-065.1 1650 1469 63.25% 19.88% 16.87%+1.21 -11.9 15
1993-08-14 @ Pardaugava Riga D 0-065.1 1469 1650 16.87% 19.88% 63.25%-1.21 +11.9 12
1993-08-21 Olimpija Riga L 0-153.4 1501 1602 28.78% 20.00% 51.22%-0.56 -30.6 12
1993-08-21 @ Dinaburg W 1-053.4 1602 1501 51.22% 20.00% 28.78%+0.56 +30.6 14
1993-08-22 Blazma W 3-138.7 1481 1226 68.65% 19.74% 11.61%+1.67 +22.5 14
1993-08-22 @ Torpedo Riga L 1-338.7 1226 1481 11.61% 19.74% 68.65%-1.67 -22.5 3
1993-08-23 Pardaugava Riga W 2-162.8 1695 1638 50.01% 20.02% 29.98%+0.43 +29.8 12
1993-08-23 @ Jelgava L 1-262.8 1638 1695 29.98% 20.02% 50.01%-0.43 -29.8 15
1993-08-23 Olimpija Liepaja W 6-147.3 1984 1427 79.02% 18.72% 2.25%+3.56 +10.3 22
1993-08-23 @ Skonto L 1-647.3 1427 1984 2.25% 18.72% 79.02%-3.56 -10.3 9
1993-08-28 Pardaugava Riga L 0-249.1 1471 1608 24.48% 19.97% 55.55%-0.79 -50.3 12
1993-08-28 @ Dinaburg W 2-049.1 1608 1471 55.55% 19.97% 24.48%+0.79 +50.3 17
1993-08-28 DAG Riga W 4-148.4 1724 1415 71.69% 19.61% 8.71%+2.01 +24.4 14
1993-08-28 @ Jelgava L 1-448.4 1415 1724 8.71% 19.61% 71.69%-2.01 -24.4 6
1993-08-28 Olimpija Liepaja W 3-042.0 1503 1417 53.69% 20.00% 26.32%+0.61 +77.7 16
1993-08-28 @ Torpedo Riga L 0-342.0 1417 1503 26.32% 20.00% 53.69%-0.61 -77.7 9
1993-08-28 Blazma L 1-242.1 1048 1203 22.59% 19.95% 57.46%-0.90 -23.5 1
1993-08-28 @ Valmiera W 2-142.1 1203 1048 57.46% 19.95% 22.59%+0.90 +23.5 5
1993-09-04 Olimpija Riga L 1-536.1 1227 1633 6.26% 19.39% 74.34%-2.47 -23.0 5
1993-09-04 @ Blazma W 5-136.1 1633 1227 74.34% 19.39% 6.26%+2.47 +23.0 16
1993-09-11 Blazma W 4-041.4 1995 1204 81.85% 17.53% 0.62%+5.02 +2.7 24
1993-09-11 @ Skonto L 0-441.4 1204 1995 0.62% 17.53% 81.85%-5.02 -2.7 5
1993-09-12 Valmiera W 4-027.4 1421 1025 75.18% 19.35% 5.47%+2.55 +24.2 14
1993-09-12 @ Dinaburg L 0-427.4 1025 1421 5.47% 19.35% 75.18%-2.55 -24.3 1
1993-09-12 Olimpija Riga L 0-166.5 1749 1656 54.44% 19.99% 25.57%+0.65 -52.3 14
1993-09-12 @ Jelgava W 1-066.5 1656 1749 25.57% 19.99% 54.44%-0.65 +52.3 18
1993-09-12 Pardaugava Riga D 0-062.8 1390 1659 12.97% 19.76% 67.27%-1.61 +14.3 7
1993-09-12 @ DAG Riga D 0-062.8 1659 1390 67.27% 19.76% 12.97%+1.61 -14.3 18
1993-09-18 Olimpija Liepaja W 6-036.7 1644 1339 71.47% 19.62% 8.91%+1.98 +56.5 20
1993-09-18 @ Pardaugava Riga L 0-636.7 1339 1644 8.91% 19.62% 71.47%-1.98 -56.5 9
1993-09-19 DAG Riga W 2-048.5 1201 1405 17.95% 19.88% 62.17%-1.20 +112.4 7
1993-09-19 @ Blazma L 0-248.5 1405 1201 62.17% 19.88% 17.95%+1.20 -112.4 7
1993-09-19 Torpedo Riga L 0-328.2 1000 1581 2.40% 18.72% 78.87%-3.56 -8.2 1
1993-09-19 @ Valmiera W 3-028.2 1581 1000 78.87% 18.72% 2.40%+3.56 +8.2 18
1993-09-20 Skonto L 0-252.2 1708 1997 11.65% 19.71% 68.64%-1.74 -26.1 18
1993-09-20 @ Olimpija Riga W 2-052.2 1997 1708 68.64% 19.71% 11.65%+1.74 +26.1 26
1993-09-22 Olimpija Liepaja W 5-139.7 1697 1282 75.75% 19.29% 4.96%+2.66 +18.4 16
1993-09-22 @ Jelgava L 1-539.7 1282 1697 4.96% 19.29% 75.75%-2.66 -18.4 9
1993-09-25 Dinaburg D 0-062.2 1589 1445 59.89% 19.93% 20.18%+0.98 -10.0 19
1993-09-25 @ Torpedo Riga D 0-062.2 1445 1589 20.18% 19.93% 59.89%-0.98 +10.0 15
1993-09-25 Olimpija Riga L 0-142.0 1292 1682 6.84% 19.44% 73.72%-2.37 -8.4 7
1993-09-25 @ DAG Riga W 1-042.0 1682 1292 73.72% 19.44% 6.84%+2.37 +8.4 20
1993-09-26 Valmiera W 3-028.6 1715 992 81.19% 17.91% 0.90%+4.60 +3.0 18
1993-09-26 @ Jelgava L 0-328.6 992 1715 0.90% 17.91% 81.19%-4.60 -3.0 1
1993-09-26 Blazma L 1-344.8 1264 1313 35.50% 20.03% 44.47%-0.24 -59.3 9
1993-09-26 @ Olimpija Liepaja W 3-144.8 1313 1264 44.47% 20.03% 35.50%+0.24 +59.4 9
1993-10-01 DAG Riga D 1-155.0 1205 1284 31.52% 20.02% 48.46%-0.42 +3.6 10
1993-10-01 @ Olimpija Liepaja D 1-155.0 1284 1205 48.46% 20.02% 31.52%+0.42 -3.6 8
1993-10-02 Jelgava L 0-146.8 1373 1718 8.68% 19.57% 71.74%-2.09 -10.5 9
1993-10-02 @ Blazma W 1-046.8 1718 1373 71.74% 19.57% 8.68%+2.09 +10.5 20
1993-10-02 Torpedo Riga W 1-055.8 1690 1579 56.46% 19.97% 23.56%+0.77 +25.8 22
1993-10-02 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-155.8 1579 1690 23.56% 19.97% 56.46%-0.77 -25.8 19
1993-10-03 Skonto L 0-153.8 1701 2023 9.80% 19.63% 70.57%-1.95 -11.8 20
1993-10-03 @ Pardaugava Riga W 1-053.8 2023 1701 70.57% 19.63% 9.80%+1.95 +11.8 28
1993-10-05 Blazma W 4-040.7 1728 1362 74.13% 19.44% 6.43%+2.36 +28.3 22
1993-10-05 @ Jelgava L 0-440.7 1362 1728 6.43% 19.44% 74.13%-2.36 -28.3 9
1993-10-09 Pardaugava Riga L 0-144.2 1334 1689 8.23% 19.54% 72.23%-2.15 -10.0 9
1993-10-09 @ Blazma W 1-044.2 1689 1334 72.23% 19.54% 8.23%+2.15 +10.0 22
1993-10-09 Jelgava L 0-150.8 1455 1757 10.91% 19.68% 69.41%-1.82 -13.0 15
1993-10-09 @ Dinaburg W 1-050.8 1757 1455 69.41% 19.68% 10.91%+1.82 +13.0 24
1993-10-09 Valmiera W 11-035.4 2035 989 83.90% 15.95% 0.15%+6.62 +1.6 30
1993-10-09 @ Skonto L 0-1135.4 989 2035 0.15% 15.95% 83.90%-6.62 -1.6 1
1993-10-10 Olimpija Riga L 0-335.0 1208 1716 3.59% 19.03% 77.38%-3.11 -12.3 10
1993-10-10 @ Olimpija Liepaja W 3-035.0 1716 1208 77.38% 19.03% 3.59%+3.11 +12.3 24
1993-10-13 Skonto W 1-073.8 1442 2037 2.22% 18.66% 79.12%-3.65 +77.2 17
1993-10-13 @ Dinaburg L 0-173.8 2037 1442 79.12% 18.66% 2.22%+3.65 -77.2 30
1993-10-16 Olimpija Riga W 2-167.0 1699 1728 38.28% 20.04% 41.68%-0.11 +39.0 24
1993-10-16 @ Pardaugava Riga L 1-267.0 1728 1699 41.68% 20.04% 38.28%+0.11 -39.0 24
1993-10-16 Valmiera W 4-134.0 1280 987 70.82% 19.65% 9.53%+1.90 +26.5 10
1993-10-16 @ DAG Riga L 1-434.0 987 1280 9.53% 19.65% 70.82%-1.90 -26.5 1
1993-10-17 Torpedo Riga W 1-053.6 1770 1553 66.03% 19.82% 14.16%+1.43 +16.5 26
1993-10-17 @ Jelgava L 0-153.6 1553 1770 14.16% 19.82% 66.03%-1.43 -16.5 19
1993-10-17 Dinaburg W 2-155.8 1960 1519 76.52% 19.19% 4.29%+2.83 +5.0 32
1993-10-17 @ Skonto L 1-255.8 1519 1960 4.29% 19.19% 76.52%-2.83 -5.0 17
1993-10-23 DAG Riga W 1-039.6 1514 1307 65.34% 19.84% 14.83%+1.37 +17.2 19
1993-10-23 @ Dinaburg L 0-139.6 1307 1514 14.83% 19.84% 65.34%-1.37 -17.2 10
1993-10-23 Blazma W 2-041.2 1689 1324 74.10% 19.44% 6.45%+2.36 +15.0 26
1993-10-23 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-241.2 1324 1689 6.45% 19.44% 74.10%-2.36 -15.0 9
1993-10-23 Skonto L 0-446.6 1537 1965 5.57% 19.32% 75.11%-2.60 -24.6 19
1993-10-23 @ Torpedo Riga W 4-046.6 1965 1537 75.11% 19.32% 5.57%+2.60 +24.6 34
1993-10-23 Olimpija Liepaja L 1-337.9 961 1196 15.35% 19.83% 64.83%-1.40 -29.0 1
1993-10-23 @ Valmiera W 3-137.9 1196 961 64.83% 19.83% 15.35%+1.40 +29.0 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1993-10-13 2.22% @ Dinaburg 1442 1 Skonto 2037 0
2 1993-04-24 10.40% Torpedo Riga 1332 1 @ DAG Riga 1608 0
3 1993-09-19 17.95% @ Blazma 1201 2 DAG Riga 1405 0
4 1993-08-07 18.30% DAG Riga 1363 1 @ Torpedo Riga 1528 0
5 1993-09-12 25.57% Olimpija Riga 1656 1 @ Jelgava 1749 0
6 1993-04-24 29.08% @ Dinaburg 1384 3 Olimpija Liepaja 1482 0
7 1993-08-02 36.23% Jelgava 1680 1 @ Pardaugava Riga 1689 0
8 1993-10-16 38.28% @ Pardaugava Riga 1699 2 Olimpija Riga 1728 1
9 1993-04-24 39.74% Skonto 1683 3 @ Jelgava 1667 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-04-24 134.62 @ Dinaburg 3 1384 29.08% Olimpija Liepaja 0 1482 50.92% 20.01%
2 1993-09-19 112.38 @ Blazma 2 1201 17.95% DAG Riga 0 1405 62.17% 19.88%
3 1993-06-28 80.19 @ Jelgava 3 1591 52.68% Dinaburg 0 1513 27.32% 20.00%
4 1993-08-28 77.71 @ Torpedo Riga 3 1503 53.69% Olimpija Liepaja 0 1417 26.32% 20.00%
5 1993-10-13 77.22 @ Dinaburg 1 1442 2.22% Skonto 0 2037 79.12% 18.66%
6 1993-05-01 75.12 @ Pardaugava Riga 3 1614 54.73% Dinaburg 0 1518 25.28% 19.99%
7 1993-05-18 73.40 Torpedo Riga 2 1408 41.32% @ Blazma 0 1381 38.64% 20.04%
8 1993-04-24 67.54 Torpedo Riga 1 1332 10.40% @ DAG Riga 0 1608 69.91% 19.69%
9 1993-06-16 65.74 @ Skonto 4 1831 64.20% Olimpija Riga 0 1638 15.94% 19.86%
10 1993-04-24 65.64 Skonto 3 1683 39.74% @ Jelgava 1 1667 40.22% 20.04%
11 1993-06-12 65.20 Dinaburg 5 1448 60.67% @ Valmiera 1 1261 19.43% 19.91%
12 1993-09-26 59.35 Blazma 3 1313 44.47% @ Olimpija Liepaja 1 1264 35.50% 20.03%
13 1993-08-07 59.24 DAG Riga 1 1363 18.30% @ Torpedo Riga 0 1528 61.79% 19.91%
14 1993-09-18 56.52 @ Pardaugava Riga 6 1644 71.47% Olimpija Liepaja 0 1339 8.91% 19.62%
15 1993-05-08 54.95 Skonto 3 1748 62.52% @ DAG Riga 0 1541 17.61% 19.88%
16 1993-06-25 53.91 @ Olimpija Riga 4 1573 59.12% DAG Riga 1 1436 20.94% 19.94%
17 1993-06-25 52.31 @ Skonto 3 1897 63.47% Pardaugava Riga 0 1713 16.65% 19.88%
18 1993-09-12 52.31 Olimpija Riga 1 1656 25.57% @ Jelgava 0 1749 54.44% 19.99%
19 1993-08-28 50.32 Pardaugava Riga 2 1608 55.55% @ Dinaburg 0 1471 24.48% 19.97%
20 1993-08-02 43.05 Jelgava 1 1680 36.23% @ Pardaugava Riga 0 1689 43.73% 20.04%
21 1993-06-16 42.64 @ Torpedo Riga 4 1481 70.42% Valmiera 0 1196 9.91% 19.67%
22 1993-10-16 39.01 @ Pardaugava Riga 2 1699 38.28% Olimpija Riga 1 1728 41.68% 20.04%
23 1993-08-01 38.46 Dinaburg 1 1433 41.90% @ DAG Riga 0 1402 38.07% 20.04%
24 1993-06-13 38.16 @ Olimpija Riga 1 1600 42.27% Jelgava 0 1601 37.69% 20.04%
25 1993-07-24 37.30 Pardaugava Riga 2 1652 40.53% @ Olimpija Riga 1 1631 39.43% 20.04%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-10-13 73.8 @ Dinaburg 1 1442 2.22% Skonto 0 2037 79.12% 18.66%
2 1993-05-09 72.3 @ Torpedo Riga 2 1397 11.51% Pardaugava Riga 2 1689 68.79% 19.71%
3 1993-08-13 69.0 @ Olimpija Liepaja 1 1413 11.31% Jelgava 1 1708 68.99% 19.70%
4 1993-07-25 67.3 @ Torpedo Riga 0 1530 24.14% Jelgava 0 1671 55.90% 19.97%
5 1993-10-16 67.0 @ Pardaugava Riga 2 1699 38.28% Olimpija Riga 1 1728 41.68% 20.04%
6 1993-05-27 66.9 @ DAG Riga 3 1486 60.17% Olimpija Liepaja 3 1339 19.90% 19.93%
7 1993-05-18 66.5 @ Olimpija Riga 1 1610 62.50% Dinaburg 1 1438 17.61% 19.89%
8 1993-09-12 66.5 Olimpija Riga 1 1656 25.57% @ Jelgava 0 1749 54.44% 19.99%
9 1993-07-20 66.3 @ Torpedo Riga 0 1524 27.31% Olimpija Riga 0 1637 52.69% 19.99%
10 1993-08-14 65.1 @ Pardaugava Riga 0 1650 63.25% Torpedo Riga 0 1469 16.87% 19.88%
11 1993-07-24 65.0 Pardaugava Riga 2 1652 40.53% @ Olimpija Riga 1 1631 39.43% 20.04%
12 1993-08-07 64.9 @ Olimpija Liepaja 2 1411 34.09% Dinaburg 2 1471 45.88% 20.03%
13 1993-04-24 64.1 Skonto 3 1683 39.74% @ Jelgava 1 1667 40.22% 20.04%
14 1993-08-02 63.0 Jelgava 1 1680 36.23% @ Pardaugava Riga 0 1689 43.73% 20.04%
15 1993-08-23 62.8 @ Jelgava 2 1695 50.01% Pardaugava Riga 1 1638 29.98% 20.02%
16 1993-09-12 62.8 @ DAG Riga 0 1390 12.97% Pardaugava Riga 0 1659 67.27% 19.76%
17 1993-06-25 62.3 @ Dinaburg 0 1513 40.98% Torpedo Riga 0 1524 38.98% 20.04%
18 1993-09-25 62.2 @ Torpedo Riga 0 1589 59.89% Dinaburg 0 1445 20.18% 19.93%
19 1993-07-17 61.1 @ Olimpija Liepaja 0 1334 9.16% Pardaugava Riga 0 1669 71.24% 19.60%
20 1993-04-24 59.7 Torpedo Riga 1 1332 10.40% @ DAG Riga 0 1608 69.91% 19.69%
21 1993-06-13 58.7 @ Olimpija Riga 1 1600 42.27% Jelgava 0 1601 37.69% 20.04%
22 1993-05-01 56.0 @ Blazma 1 1383 57.31% Valmiera 1 1264 22.72% 19.96%
23 1993-10-02 55.8 @ Olimpija Riga 1 1690 56.46% Torpedo Riga 0 1579 23.56% 19.97%
24 1993-10-17 55.8 @ Skonto 2 1960 76.52% Dinaburg 1 1519 4.29% 19.19%
25 1993-08-07 55.7 DAG Riga 1 1363 18.30% @ Torpedo Riga 0 1528 61.79% 19.91%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-09-12 27.4 @ Dinaburg 4 1421 75.18% Valmiera 0 1025 5.47% 19.35%
2 1993-09-19 28.2 Torpedo Riga 3 1581 78.87% @ Valmiera 0 1000 2.40% 18.72%
3 1993-09-26 28.6 @ Jelgava 3 1715 81.19% Valmiera 0 992 0.90% 17.91%
4 1993-08-14 28.7 @ Olimpija Riga 3 1594 78.66% Valmiera 0 1057 2.52% 18.81%
5 1993-06-16 30.1 @ Torpedo Riga 4 1481 70.42% Valmiera 0 1196 9.91% 19.67%
6 1993-06-25 31.6 Jelgava 6 1563 74.50% @ Valmiera 1 1153 6.12% 19.38%
7 1993-10-16 34.0 @ DAG Riga 4 1280 70.82% Valmiera 1 987 9.53% 19.65%
8 1993-10-10 35.0 Olimpija Riga 3 1716 77.38% @ Olimpija Liepaja 0 1208 3.59% 19.03%
9 1993-10-09 35.4 @ Skonto 11 2035 83.90% Valmiera 0 989 0.15% 15.95%
10 1993-07-31 35.5 @ Olimpija Liepaja 7 1386 71.17% Valmiera 3 1086 9.20% 19.63%
11 1993-08-07 35.5 @ Pardaugava Riga 3 1646 79.48% Valmiera 1 1061 1.93% 18.60%
12 1993-07-24 35.7 DAG Riga 4 1382 66.59% @ Valmiera 1 1123 13.63% 19.78%
13 1993-09-04 36.1 Olimpija Riga 5 1633 74.34% @ Blazma 1 1227 6.26% 19.39%
14 1993-09-18 36.7 @ Pardaugava Riga 6 1644 71.47% Olimpija Liepaja 0 1339 8.91% 19.62%
15 1993-06-12 37.1 Dinaburg 5 1448 60.67% @ Valmiera 1 1261 19.43% 19.91%
16 1993-10-23 37.9 Olimpija Liepaja 3 1196 64.83% @ Valmiera 1 961 15.35% 19.83%
17 1993-08-22 38.7 @ Torpedo Riga 3 1481 68.65% Blazma 1 1226 11.61% 19.74%
18 1993-10-23 39.6 @ Dinaburg 1 1514 65.34% DAG Riga 0 1307 14.83% 19.84%
19 1993-09-22 39.7 @ Jelgava 5 1697 75.75% Olimpija Liepaja 1 1282 4.96% 19.29%
20 1993-04-24 40.4 Pardaugava Riga 4 1581 68.36% @ Valmiera 1 1297 11.92% 19.72%
21 1993-10-05 40.7 @ Jelgava 4 1728 74.13% Blazma 0 1362 6.43% 19.44%
22 1993-08-14 40.8 Dinaburg 3 1469 62.84% @ Blazma 1 1258 17.29% 19.87%
23 1993-10-23 41.2 @ Olimpija Riga 2 1689 74.10% Blazma 0 1324 6.45% 19.44%
24 1993-06-28 41.4 Skonto 5 1949 81.90% @ Valmiera 1 1125 0.62% 17.48%
25 1993-09-11 41.4 @ Skonto 4 1995 81.85% Blazma 0 1204 0.62% 17.53%