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1998 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

67 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Liepajas Metalurgs

10.32 points above expected

57 points · 46.68 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

LU Daugava Rga

11.70 points below expected

30 points · 41.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 28 21 4 3 67 98 27 +71 62.71 +4.29
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 28 17 6 5 57 62 25 +37 46.68 +10.32
3 Ventspils 28 16 6 6 54 56 23 +33 45.25 +8.75
4 Dinaburg 28 11 10 7 43 49 31 +18 48.63 -5.63
5 Valmiera 28 10 7 11 37 39 59 -20 31.35 +5.65
6 LU Daugava Rga 28 7 9 12 30 42 42 0 41.70 -11.70
7 Dizvanagi Rezekne 28 2 5 21 11 22 80 -58 14.40 -3.40
8 Ranto-Miks 28 2 5 21 11 25 106 -81 20.33 -9.33

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 57 46.68 +10.32
2 Ventspils 54 45.25 +8.75
3 Valmiera 37 31.35 +5.65
4 Skonto 67 62.71 +4.29
5 Dizvanagi Rezekne 11 14.40 -3.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 LU Daugava Rga 30 41.70 -11.70
2 Ranto-Miks 11 20.33 -9.33
3 Dinaburg 43 48.63 -5.63
4 Dizvanagi Rezekne 11 14.40 -3.40
5 Skonto 67 62.71 +4.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 8 Jul 20 – Sep 21 1 in 134
2 Skonto 12 Jun 28 – Oct 4 1 in 75
3 Dinaburg 5 May 20 – Jun 11 1 in 35
4 Ventspils 6 Sep 19 – Oct 31 1 in 24
5 Ranto-Miks 1 Jun 28 – Jun 28 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 LU Daugava Rga 4 Jun 7 – Jun 28 1 in 273
2 Ranto-Miks 8 May 12 – Jun 21 1 in 223
3 Skonto 2 May 24 – May 29 1 in 45
4 Dizvanagi Rezekne 7 Jun 21 – Aug 6 1 in 22
5 Dinaburg 3 Aug 16 – Aug 30 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 LU Daugava Rga 7 Apr 18 – May 29 1 in 17
2 Dinaburg 10 Apr 18 – Jun 16 1 in 14
3 Skonto 21 Jun 7 – Nov 7 1 in 13
4 Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 Apr 25 – May 3 1 in 9
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 8 Jul 20 – Sep 21 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 LU Daugava Rga 9 Aug 30 – Nov 7 1 in 397
2 Ranto-Miks 11 Apr 18 – Jun 21 1 in 55
3 Dinaburg 5 Aug 6 – Aug 30 1 in 19
4 Skonto 2 Apr 18 – Apr 25 1 in 10
5 Dizvanagi Rezekne 17 Jun 21 – Oct 31 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1880 67 +55 11 11.1 -0.1
Liepajas Metalurgs 1597 57 -24 6 8.1 -2.1
Ventspils 1654 54 +14 12 10.3 +1.7
Dinaburg 1444 43 -39 5 5.9 -0.9
Valmiera 1409 37 +24 7 4.9 +2.1
LU Daugava Rga 1353 30 -60 3 8.2 -5.2
Dizvanagi Rezekne 1067 11 -1 4 2.7 +1.3
Ranto-Miks 1039 11 -6 2 2.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DIN DR LDR LM RAN SKO VAL VEN
Dinaburg —
3-1-0
9.89
0-3-1
7.14
1-1-2
5.51
4-0-0
9.64
1-0-3
2.85
2-2-0
8.07
0-3-1
6.20
Dizvanagi Rezekne
0-1-3
1.34
 —
1-1-2
1.70
0-0-4
1.76
1-2-1
4.64
0-0-4
0.83
0-1-3
2.57
0-0-4
1.51
LU Daugava Rga
1-3-0
3.90
2-1-1
9.46
 —
0-1-3
4.64
2-1-1
9.08
1-0-3
2.38
1-2-1
6.71
0-1-3
5.27
Liepajas Metalurgs
2-1-1
5.52
4-0-0
9.43
3-1-0
6.40
 —
4-0-0
9.11
0-3-1
2.66
2-0-2
7.69
2-1-1
5.55
Ranto-Miks
0-0-4
1.55
1-2-1
6.39
1-1-2
2.05
0-0-4
2.10
 —
0-1-3
1.31
0-1-3
3.69
0-0-4
2.16
Skonto
3-0-1
8.23
4-0-0
10.55
3-0-1
8.72
1-3-0
8.41
3-1-0
9.97
 —
4-0-0
9.37
3-0-1
8.01
Valmiera
0-2-2
2.99
3-1-0
8.51
1-2-1
4.31
2-0-2
3.37
3-1-0
7.39
0-0-4
1.78
 —
1-1-2
3.12
Ventspils
1-3-0
4.84
4-0-0
9.72
3-1-0
5.75
1-1-2
5.47
4-0-0
9.03
1-0-3
3.04
2-1-1
7.94
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +7.9
Allowed 0.80 -6.1
Differential 0.94 +3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.61%5.36%2.68%5.36%2.23%3.12%30.36%
15.36%8.04%7.59%0.45%2.23%3.57%27.23%
22.68%7.59%2.68%2.23%0.89%1.79%17.86%
35.36%0.45%2.23%0.89%0.45%0.45%9.82%
42.23%2.23%0.89%0.45%——5.80%
5+3.12%3.57%1.79%0.45%——8.93%
Total30.36%27.23%17.86%9.82%5.80%8.93%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 2.05 2.05 3.11
CV 1.17 1.17 —
Max 15 15 +13
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%7.14%3.57%7.14%——35.71%
13.57%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
27.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
3———————
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+3.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
Total32.14%39.29%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.11 +0.64
SD 2.07 1.07 2.34
CV 1.18 0.96 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%46.43%
1—3.57%17.86%—7.14%3.57%32.14%
2—3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%17.86%25.00%14.29%14.29%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 2.86 -2.07
SD 0.88 2.17 2.32
CV 1.11 0.76 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
1—10.71%21.43%———32.14%
27.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
33.57%—3.57%——3.57%10.71%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total25.00%21.43%39.29%10.71%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.69 1.20 1.83
CV 1.13 0.80 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
114.29%10.71%10.71%———35.71%
2—10.71%————10.71%
33.57%—7.14%———10.71%
43.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total39.29%35.71%21.43%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.89 +1.32
SD 2.10 0.88 2.29
CV 0.95 0.98 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%7.14%7.14%14.29%46.43%
1—3.57%—3.57%—17.86%25.00%
2—7.14%3.57%3.57%—7.14%21.43%
3———3.57%3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%17.86%7.14%17.86%10.71%39.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 3.79 -2.89
SD 0.99 2.53 2.78
CV 1.11 0.67 —
Max 3 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—3.57%———7.14%
114.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
33.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
410.71%7.14%————17.86%
5+7.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
Total42.86%28.57%17.86%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 0.96 +2.54
SD 3.20 1.04 3.23
CV 0.92 1.07 —
Max 15 3 +13
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%—3.57%7.14%3.57%—32.14%
13.57%3.57%3.57%—7.14%7.14%25.00%
2—14.29%3.57%—3.57%3.57%25.00%
310.71%—————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total39.29%17.86%10.71%7.14%14.29%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.11 -0.71
SD 1.34 3.11 3.49
CV 0.96 1.47 —
Max 5 15 +5
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%10.71%—3.57%3.57%—28.57%
17.14%10.71%————17.86%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
321.43%—3.57%———25.00%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total46.43%39.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.82 +1.18
SD 2.02 1.06 2.50
CV 1.01 1.29 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1880 67 62.71 +4.29 83.0% 49 54 60 62 66 70 75
Ventspils 1654 54 45.25 +8.75 95.0% 31 34 41 46 49 54 58
Liepajas Metalurgs 1597 57 46.68 +10.32 95.0% 35 38 42 46 51 57 63
Dinaburg 1444 43 48.63 -5.63 20.0% 36 40 44 48 52 59 61
Valmiera 1409 37 31.35 +5.65 84.0% 16 22 27 31 36 42 49
LU Daugava Rga 1353 30 41.70 -11.70 6.0% 26 30 37 43 46 52 56
Dizvanagi Rezekne 1067 11 14.40 -3.40 27.0% 3 7 11 15 17 21 27
Ranto-Miks 1039 11 20.33 -9.33 4.0% 10 12 16 21 24 27 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.36%
Slight Edge
41.07%23.21%35.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.63 Elo pts.
150 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.2
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
92%
Skonto, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.380.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.54 * Some Luck: 4.54 to 6.8 * Lucky: 6.8 to 9.07 * Wild Swing: 9.07 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.48 * Close: 0.48 to 0.71 * Off: 0.71 to 0.95 * Way Off: 0.95 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.91 points
Lucky
05.6714
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Way Off
00.601.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Liepajas Metalurgs
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
Ranto-Miks
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 285.77
2.94
Strong Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
87%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Frequent
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.60
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.87
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.51
Weak Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Shaky Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.32
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.095
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skonto92.00%8.00%——————
Liepajas Metalurgs3.00%26.00%26.00%26.00%17.00%2.00%——
Ventspils—16.00%34.00%30.00%15.00%5.00%——
Dinaburg5.00%36.00%25.00%24.00%8.00%2.00%——
Valmiera—2.00%—5.00%18.00%63.00%11.00%1.00%
LU Daugava Rga—12.00%15.00%15.00%42.00%16.00%——
Dizvanagi Rezekne—————2.00%25.00%73.00%
Ranto-Miks—————10.00%64.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinaburg 100% —
LU Daugava Rga 100% —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Ventspils 100% —
Valmiera 99.00% 1.00%
Ranto-Miks 74.00% 26.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne 27.00% 73.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1998-04-18 Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-344.6 1191 1382 17.61% 23.75% 58.64%-1.15 -11.5 0
1998-04-18 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-244.6 1382 1191 58.64% 23.75% 17.61%+1.15 +11.5 3
1998-04-18 Skonto D 3-373.4 1392 1720 8.98% 21.98% 69.04%-2.06 +5.4 1
1998-04-18 @ Ranto-Miks D 3-373.4 1720 1392 69.04% 21.98% 8.98%+2.06 -5.4 1
1998-04-18 Ventspils D 1-158.9 1471 1459 42.01% 24.60% 33.39%+0.20 -1.1 1
1998-04-18 @ LU Daugava Rga D 1-158.9 1459 1471 33.39% 24.60% 42.01%-0.20 +1.1 1
1998-04-18 Dinaburg L 0-239.9 1327 1501 19.17% 23.92% 56.91%-1.03 -26.1 0
1998-04-18 @ Valmiera W 2-039.9 1501 1327 56.91% 23.92% 19.17%+1.03 +26.1 3
1998-04-25 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-051.5 1527 1179 72.21% 21.02% 6.77%+2.44 -10.8 4
1998-04-25 @ Dinaburg D 0-051.5 1179 1527 6.77% 21.02% 72.21%-2.44 +10.8 1
1998-04-25 Ventspils D 0-053.5 1394 1460 31.13% 24.56% 44.31%-0.32 +1.9 4
1998-04-25 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-053.5 1460 1394 44.31% 24.56% 31.13%+0.32 -1.9 2
1998-04-25 Valmiera D 0-050.5 1398 1301 52.67% 24.23% 23.10%+0.77 -4.4 2
1998-04-25 @ Ranto-Miks D 0-050.5 1301 1398 23.10% 24.23% 52.67%-0.77 +4.4 1
1998-04-25 LU Daugava Rga L 2-374.0 1715 1470 66.04% 22.67% 11.30%+1.76 -34.9 1
1998-04-25 @ Skonto W 3-274.0 1470 1715 11.30% 22.67% 66.04%-1.76 +34.9 4
1998-05-03 Ranto-Miks D 2-256.3 1190 1393 16.66% 23.64% 59.71%-1.23 +4.5 2
1998-05-03 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne D 2-256.3 1393 1190 59.71% 23.64% 16.66%+1.23 -4.5 3
1998-05-03 Ventspils D 1-160.6 1516 1458 48.03% 24.45% 27.52%+0.51 -2.7 5
1998-05-03 @ Dinaburg D 1-160.6 1458 1516 27.52% 24.45% 48.03%-0.51 +2.7 3
1998-05-03 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-055.0 1505 1396 54.05% 24.14% 21.81%+0.85 -4.9 5
1998-05-03 @ LU Daugava Rga D 0-055.0 1396 1505 21.81% 24.14% 54.05%-0.85 +4.8 5
1998-05-03 Skonto L 1-442.8 1305 1680 7.11% 21.20% 71.69%-2.37 -12.5 1
1998-05-03 @ Valmiera W 4-142.8 1680 1305 71.69% 21.20% 7.11%+2.37 +12.5 4
1998-05-12 LU Daugava Rga D 0-059.0 1513 1500 42.18% 24.60% 33.22%+0.21 -1.3 6
1998-05-12 @ Dinaburg D 0-059.0 1500 1513 33.22% 24.60% 42.18%-0.21 +1.3 6
1998-05-12 Ventspils L 0-145.7 1389 1461 30.36% 24.54% 45.10%-0.36 -20.2 3
1998-05-12 @ Ranto-Miks W 1-045.7 1461 1389 45.10% 24.54% 30.36%+0.36 +20.2 6
1998-05-12 Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-046.9 1693 1401 69.11% 21.96% 8.93%+2.07 +6.8 7
1998-05-12 @ Skonto L 0-146.9 1401 1693 8.93% 21.96% 69.11%-2.07 -6.8 5
1998-05-12 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-035.8 1293 1194 52.83% 24.22% 22.95%+0.78 +44.1 4
1998-05-12 @ Valmiera L 0-335.8 1194 1293 22.95% 24.22% 52.83%-0.78 -44.1 2
1998-05-20 Dinaburg L 1-249.1 1394 1512 24.80% 24.33% 50.87%-0.66 -16.2 5
1998-05-20 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-149.1 1512 1394 50.87% 24.33% 24.80%+0.66 +16.2 9
1998-05-20 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 7-029.6 1699 1150 80.48% 17.06% 2.46%+3.78 +10.6 10
1998-05-20 @ Skonto L 0-729.6 1150 1699 2.46% 17.06% 80.48%-3.78 -10.6 2
1998-05-20 Ranto-Miks W 3-039.7 1501 1369 56.52% 23.95% 19.52%+1.01 +38.5 9
1998-05-20 @ LU Daugava Rga L 0-339.7 1369 1501 19.52% 23.95% 56.52%-1.01 -38.5 3
1998-05-20 Valmiera L 0-349.7 1481 1337 57.67% 23.85% 18.48%+1.09 -93.7 6
1998-05-20 @ Ventspils W 3-049.7 1337 1481 18.48% 23.85% 57.67%-1.09 +93.7 7
1998-05-24 Ventspils L 1-436.4 1140 1387 13.41% 23.13% 63.47%-1.53 -23.2 2
1998-05-24 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-136.4 1387 1140 63.47% 23.13% 13.41%+1.53 +23.2 9
1998-05-24 Liepajas Metalurgs L 3-453.9 1330 1378 33.64% 24.60% 41.75%-0.19 -19.1 3
1998-05-24 @ Ranto-Miks W 4-353.9 1378 1330 41.75% 24.60% 33.64%+0.19 +19.1 8
1998-05-24 Dinaburg L 0-265.2 1710 1528 61.10% 23.47% 15.43%+1.33 -68.2 10
1998-05-24 @ Skonto W 2-065.2 1528 1710 15.43% 23.47% 61.10%-1.33 +68.2 12
1998-05-24 LU Daugava Rga D 2-264.1 1430 1540 25.83% 24.38% 49.79%-0.60 +2.3 8
1998-05-24 @ Valmiera D 2-264.1 1540 1430 49.79% 24.38% 25.83%+0.60 -2.3 10
1998-05-29 Ranto-Miks W 6-138.4 1597 1311 68.71% 22.06% 9.23%+2.03 +25.7 15
1998-05-29 @ Dinaburg L 1-638.4 1311 1597 9.23% 22.06% 68.71%-2.03 -25.7 3
1998-05-29 Valmiera W 4-148.7 1397 1433 35.20% 24.62% 40.18%-0.12 +57.8 11
1998-05-29 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-448.7 1433 1397 40.18% 24.62% 35.20%+0.12 -57.8 8
1998-05-29 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 8-231.7 1537 1116 75.65% 19.66% 4.69%+2.93 +12.6 13
1998-05-29 @ LU Daugava Rga L 2-831.7 1116 1537 4.69% 19.66% 75.65%-2.93 -12.6 2
1998-05-29 Skonto W 2-165.3 1411 1642 14.54% 23.33% 62.14%-1.42 +34.7 12
1998-05-29 @ Ventspils L 1-265.3 1642 1411 62.14% 23.33% 14.54%+1.42 -34.7 10
1998-06-07 Valmiera W 6-142.4 1622 1375 66.20% 22.63% 11.17%+1.77 +30.9 18
1998-06-07 @ Dinaburg L 1-642.4 1375 1622 11.17% 22.63% 66.20%-1.77 -30.9 8
1998-06-07 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-029.0 1454 1104 72.35% 20.98% 6.67%+2.46 +18.2 14
1998-06-07 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-429.0 1104 1454 6.67% 20.98% 72.35%-2.46 -18.2 2
1998-06-07 Ranto-Miks W 9-034.0 1607 1285 70.83% 21.47% 7.70%+2.27 +45.3 13
1998-06-07 @ Skonto L 0-934.0 1285 1607 7.70% 21.47% 70.83%-2.27 -45.3 3
1998-06-07 LU Daugava Rga W 1-056.2 1445 1550 26.37% 24.41% 49.23%-0.57 +29.6 15
1998-06-07 @ Ventspils L 0-156.2 1550 1445 49.23% 24.41% 26.37%+0.57 -29.6 13
1998-06-11 Dinaburg L 0-132.8 1086 1653 2.71% 17.45% 79.84%-3.65 -1.9 2
1998-06-11 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-032.8 1653 1086 79.84% 17.45% 2.71%+3.65 +1.9 21
1998-06-11 Skonto L 3-562.3 1520 1652 23.32% 24.25% 52.43%-0.75 -22.5 13
1998-06-11 @ LU Daugava Rga W 5-362.3 1652 1520 52.43% 24.25% 23.32%+0.75 +22.5 16
1998-06-11 Ranto-Miks W 4-034.9 1344 1240 53.48% 24.18% 22.34%+0.82 +56.3 11
1998-06-11 @ Valmiera L 0-434.9 1240 1344 22.34% 24.18% 53.48%-0.82 -56.3 3
1998-06-11 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-151.9 1475 1473 40.66% 24.61% 34.73%+0.14 -25.2 15
1998-06-11 @ Ventspils W 1-051.9 1473 1475 34.73% 24.61% 40.66%-0.14 +25.2 17
1998-06-16 LU Daugava Rga W 3-259.2 1498 1498 40.31% 24.62% 35.07%+0.12 +20.2 20
1998-06-16 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-359.2 1498 1498 35.07% 24.62% 40.31%-0.12 -20.2 13
1998-06-16 Dizvanagi Rezekne L 1-349.6 1184 1084 53.01% 24.21% 22.78%+0.79 -51.7 3
1998-06-16 @ Ranto-Miks W 3-149.6 1084 1184 22.78% 24.21% 53.01%-0.79 +51.7 5
1998-06-16 Skonto L 1-546.6 1400 1675 11.74% 22.77% 65.49%-1.70 -26.5 11
1998-06-16 @ Valmiera W 5-146.6 1675 1400 65.49% 22.77% 11.74%+1.70 +26.5 19
1998-06-16 Dinaburg D 0-062.5 1450 1655 16.47% 23.61% 59.91%-1.24 +6.8 16
1998-06-16 @ Ventspils D 0-062.5 1655 1450 59.91% 23.61% 16.47%+1.24 -6.8 22
1998-06-21 Valmiera L 1-239.4 1135 1374 14.03% 23.24% 62.73%-1.46 -9.9 5
1998-06-21 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-139.4 1374 1135 62.73% 23.24% 14.03%+1.46 +9.9 14
1998-06-21 Skonto D 0-065.5 1518 1701 18.32% 23.83% 57.84%-1.10 +6.1 21
1998-06-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-065.5 1701 1518 57.84% 23.83% 18.32%+1.10 -6.1 20
1998-06-21 Ranto-Miks W 9-028.7 1456 1132 70.97% 21.43% 7.60%+2.28 +44.8 19
1998-06-21 @ Ventspils L 0-928.7 1132 1456 7.60% 21.43% 70.97%-2.28 -44.8 3
1998-06-28 Skonto L 0-232.9 1126 1695 2.68% 17.41% 79.92%-3.67 -3.6 5
1998-06-28 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-032.9 1695 1126 79.92% 17.41% 2.68%+3.67 +3.6 23
1998-06-28 LU Daugava Rga W 2-156.5 1087 1478 6.58% 20.93% 72.49%-2.48 +40.2 6
1998-06-28 @ Ranto-Miks L 1-256.5 1478 1087 72.49% 20.93% 6.58%+2.48 -40.2 13
1998-06-28 Ventspils D 0-054.5 1384 1501 24.93% 24.34% 50.74%-0.66 +3.8 15
1998-06-28 @ Valmiera D 0-054.5 1501 1384 50.74% 24.34% 24.93%+0.66 -3.8 20
1998-07-01 Skonto L 0-160.3 1648 1699 33.23% 24.60% 42.18%-0.21 -21.6 22
1998-07-01 @ Dinaburg W 1-060.3 1699 1648 42.18% 24.60% 33.23%+0.21 +21.6 26
1998-07-01 Ranto-Miks W 7-027.9 1524 1127 74.57% 20.13% 5.30%+2.76 +24.2 24
1998-07-01 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-727.9 1127 1524 5.30% 20.13% 74.57%-2.76 -24.2 6
1998-07-01 Valmiera W 4-249.9 1438 1388 47.05% 24.49% 28.47%+0.46 +28.0 16
1998-07-01 @ LU Daugava Rga L 2-449.9 1388 1438 28.47% 24.49% 47.05%-0.46 -28.0 15
1998-07-01 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-133.9 1497 1122 73.58% 20.52% 5.89%+2.62 +10.3 23
1998-07-01 @ Ventspils L 1-433.9 1122 1497 5.89% 20.52% 73.58%-2.62 -10.3 5
1998-07-10 LU Daugava Rga W 3-046.4 1508 1466 46.02% 24.52% 29.47%+0.40 +53.9 26
1998-07-10 @ Ventspils L 0-346.4 1466 1508 29.47% 24.52% 46.02%-0.40 -53.9 16
1998-07-15 LU Daugava Rga L 1-238.1 1112 1412 10.34% 22.41% 67.25%-1.87 -7.4 5
1998-07-15 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-138.1 1412 1112 67.25% 22.41% 10.34%+1.87 +7.4 19
1998-07-15 Dinaburg L 0-627.8 1103 1627 3.38% 18.36% 78.26%-3.36 -12.9 6
1998-07-15 @ Ranto-Miks W 6-027.8 1627 1103 78.26% 18.36% 3.38%+3.36 +12.9 25
1998-07-15 Ventspils W 1-054.4 1721 1562 59.06% 23.71% 17.23%+1.18 +12.6 29
1998-07-15 @ Skonto L 0-154.4 1562 1721 17.23% 23.71% 59.06%-1.18 -12.6 26
1998-07-15 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-159.1 1360 1548 17.87% 23.78% 58.35%-1.13 +32.6 18
1998-07-15 @ Valmiera L 1-259.1 1548 1360 58.35% 23.78% 17.87%+1.13 -32.6 24
1998-07-20 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-163.4 1640 1516 55.62% 24.03% 20.35%+0.95 -33.1 25
1998-07-20 @ Dinaburg W 1-063.4 1516 1640 20.35% 24.03% 55.62%-0.95 +33.1 27
1998-07-23 Dinaburg D 1-161.8 1392 1607 15.78% 23.52% 60.70%-1.30 +6.3 19
1998-07-23 @ Valmiera D 1-161.8 1607 1392 60.70% 23.52% 15.78%+1.30 -6.3 26
1998-07-25 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-236.6 1104 1549 5.02% 19.93% 75.05%-2.84 -3.6 5
1998-07-25 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-136.6 1549 1104 75.05% 19.93% 5.02%+2.84 +3.6 30
1998-07-25 Skonto L 2-733.8 1090 1733 1.85% 15.88% 82.27%-4.16 -3.9 6
1998-07-25 @ Ranto-Miks W 7-233.8 1733 1090 82.27% 15.88% 1.85%+4.16 +3.9 32
1998-08-01 Valmiera L 0-331.2 1086 1398 9.74% 22.23% 68.03%-1.95 -20.3 6
1998-08-01 @ Ranto-Miks W 3-031.2 1398 1086 68.03% 22.23% 9.74%+1.95 +20.3 22
1998-08-02 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-136.0 1600 1101 78.76% 18.08% 3.16%+3.45 +2.2 29
1998-08-02 @ Dinaburg L 1-236.0 1101 1600 3.16% 18.08% 78.76%-3.45 -2.2 5
1998-08-02 Ventspils W 1-055.7 1552 1549 40.79% 24.61% 34.59%+0.15 +22.3 33
1998-08-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-155.7 1549 1552 34.59% 24.61% 40.79%-0.15 -22.3 26
1998-08-02 LU Daugava Rga W 3-045.3 1737 1419 70.61% 21.54% 7.85%+2.24 +16.4 35
1998-08-02 @ Skonto L 0-345.3 1419 1737 7.85% 21.54% 70.61%-2.24 -16.4 19
1998-08-06 Ranto-Miks L 1-248.6 1098 1066 44.76% 24.55% 30.69%+0.34 -25.7 5
1998-08-06 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-148.6 1066 1098 30.69% 24.55% 44.76%-0.34 +25.7 9
1998-08-06 Valmiera W 4-044.3 1753 1419 71.53% 21.25% 7.22%+2.35 +19.7 38
1998-08-06 @ Skonto L 0-444.3 1419 1753 7.22% 21.25% 71.53%-2.35 -19.7 22
1998-08-06 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-146.4 1403 1575 19.36% 23.94% 56.70%-1.02 -13.9 19
1998-08-06 @ LU Daugava Rga W 1-046.4 1575 1403 56.70% 23.94% 19.36%+1.02 +13.9 36
1998-08-06 Dinaburg D 1-166.0 1527 1602 29.90% 24.53% 45.57%-0.38 +2.0 27
1998-08-06 @ Ventspils D 1-166.0 1602 1527 45.57% 24.53% 29.90%+0.38 -2.0 30
1998-08-11 Dinaburg D 2-265.1 1389 1600 15.98% 23.55% 60.47%-1.29 +4.6 20
1998-08-11 @ LU Daugava Rga D 2-265.1 1600 1389 60.47% 23.55% 15.98%+1.29 -4.6 31
1998-08-16 LU Daugava Rga L 0-258.1 1596 1393 62.84% 23.22% 13.94%+1.47 -70.1 31
1998-08-16 @ Dinaburg W 2-058.1 1393 1596 13.94% 23.22% 62.84%-1.47 +70.2 23
1998-08-16 Ventspils L 1-532.2 1092 1529 5.22% 20.07% 74.71%-2.79 -11.7 9
1998-08-16 @ Ranto-Miks W 5-132.2 1529 1092 74.71% 20.07% 5.22%+2.79 +11.7 30
1998-08-16 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-049.8 1399 1073 71.08% 21.40% 7.53%+2.30 -10.4 23
1998-08-16 @ Valmiera D 0-049.8 1073 1399 7.53% 21.40% 71.08%-2.30 +10.4 6
1998-08-22 Dinaburg W 3-050.7 1588 1526 48.64% 24.43% 26.93%+0.54 +50.2 39
1998-08-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-350.7 1526 1588 26.93% 24.43% 48.64%-0.54 -50.2 31
1998-08-22 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-034.0 1773 1083 84.65% 14.15% 1.20%+4.72 +0.8 41
1998-08-22 @ Skonto L 0-134.0 1083 1773 1.20% 14.15% 84.65%-4.72 -0.8 6
1998-08-22 Valmiera W 3-041.1 1540 1389 58.38% 23.78% 17.84%+1.13 +35.6 33
1998-08-22 @ Ventspils L 0-341.1 1389 1540 17.84% 23.78% 58.38%-1.13 -35.6 23
1998-08-24 Ranto-Miks W 2-031.1 1463 1080 73.97% 20.37% 5.66%+2.68 +8.1 26
1998-08-24 @ LU Daugava Rga L 0-231.1 1080 1463 5.66% 20.37% 73.97%-2.68 -8.1 9
1998-08-30 Ventspils L 0-329.5 1082 1576 3.93% 18.96% 77.11%-3.16 -8.0 6
1998-08-30 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-029.5 1576 1082 77.11% 18.96% 3.93%+3.16 +8.0 36
1998-08-30 Dinaburg W 2-154.2 1774 1476 69.49% 21.86% 8.65%+2.11 +6.2 44
1998-08-30 @ Skonto L 1-254.2 1476 1774 8.65% 21.86% 69.49%-2.11 -6.2 31
1998-08-30 LU Daugava Rga W 2-154.5 1353 1472 24.80% 24.33% 50.87%-0.66 +28.7 26
1998-08-30 @ Valmiera L 1-254.5 1472 1353 50.87% 24.33% 24.80%+0.66 -28.7 26
1998-08-31 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-630.4 1072 1639 2.72% 17.47% 79.81%-3.65 -7.1 9
1998-08-31 @ Ranto-Miks W 6-130.4 1639 1072 79.81% 17.47% 2.72%+3.65 +7.1 42
1998-09-11 Skonto L 2-362.5 1584 1780 17.23% 23.71% 59.07%-1.18 -11.3 36
1998-09-11 @ Ventspils W 3-262.5 1780 1584 59.07% 23.71% 17.23%+1.18 +11.3 47
1998-09-12 Ranto-Miks W 5-131.6 1469 1065 74.93% 19.98% 5.09%+2.82 +11.4 34
1998-09-12 @ Dinaburg L 1-531.6 1065 1469 5.09% 19.98% 74.93%-2.82 -11.4 9
1998-09-12 Valmiera W 2-148.6 1646 1382 67.33% 22.39% 10.28%+1.88 +7.4 45
1998-09-12 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-248.6 1382 1646 10.28% 22.39% 67.33%-1.88 -7.4 26
1998-09-12 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 1-153.2 1443 1074 73.25% 20.65% 6.10%+2.58 -9.9 27
1998-09-12 @ LU Daugava Rga D 1-153.2 1074 1443 6.10% 20.65% 73.25%-2.58 +9.9 7
1998-09-19 Ventspils L 1-252.0 1433 1573 22.51% 24.19% 53.30%-0.81 -14.9 27
1998-09-19 @ LU Daugava Rga W 2-152.0 1573 1433 53.30% 24.19% 22.51%+0.81 +14.9 39
1998-09-20 Valmiera D 0-053.6 1481 1374 53.72% 24.17% 22.11%+0.83 -4.7 35
1998-09-20 @ Dinaburg D 0-053.6 1374 1481 22.11% 24.17% 53.72%-0.83 +4.7 27
1998-09-20 Ranto-Miks W 4-029.0 1791 1053 85.88% 13.18% 0.94%+5.04 +2.2 50
1998-09-20 @ Skonto L 0-429.0 1053 1791 0.94% 13.18% 85.88%-5.04 -2.2 9
1998-09-21 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 7-027.0 1653 1084 81.12% 16.65% 2.23%+3.91 +9.5 48
1998-09-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-727.0 1084 1653 2.23% 16.65% 81.12%-3.91 -9.5 7
1998-09-25 Skonto L 1-252.8 1418 1794 7.09% 21.19% 71.72%-2.38 -5.1 27
1998-09-25 @ LU Daugava Rga W 2-152.8 1794 1418 71.72% 21.19% 7.09%+2.38 +5.1 53
1998-09-25 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-061.0 1588 1663 30.00% 24.53% 45.47%-0.38 +52.1 42
1998-09-25 @ Ventspils L 0-261.0 1663 1588 45.47% 24.53% 30.00%+0.38 -52.1 48
1998-09-26 Dinaburg L 2-438.6 1075 1476 6.24% 20.73% 73.02%-2.55 -6.9 7
1998-09-26 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-238.6 1476 1075 73.02% 20.73% 6.24%+2.55 +6.9 38
1998-09-26 Ranto-Miks W 1-033.2 1379 1051 71.16% 21.37% 7.47%+2.31 +5.7 30
1998-09-26 @ Valmiera L 0-133.2 1051 1379 7.47% 21.37% 71.16%-2.31 -5.7 9
1998-10-03 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-048.5 1046 1068 37.15% 24.63% 38.22%-0.02 +0.1 10
1998-10-03 @ Ranto-Miks D 0-048.5 1068 1046 38.22% 24.63% 37.15%+0.02 -0.1 8
1998-10-04 Ventspils L 0-349.0 1483 1640 20.79% 24.07% 55.15%-0.92 -40.6 38
1998-10-04 @ Dinaburg W 3-049.0 1640 1483 55.15% 24.07% 20.79%+0.92 +40.6 45
1998-10-04 Valmiera W 15-243.5 1799 1385 75.34% 19.80% 4.86%+2.88 +26.3 56
1998-10-04 @ Skonto L 2-1543.5 1385 1799 4.86% 19.80% 75.34%-2.88 -26.3 30
1998-10-05 LU Daugava Rga W 2-149.9 1611 1413 62.44% 23.28% 14.28%+1.44 +10.0 51
1998-10-05 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-249.9 1413 1611 14.28% 23.28% 62.44%-1.44 -10.0 27
1998-10-18 Valmiera L 0-529.6 1068 1359 10.83% 22.54% 66.63%-1.81 -36.3 8
1998-10-18 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 5-029.6 1359 1068 66.63% 22.54% 10.83%+1.81 +36.3 33
1998-10-18 Skonto D 1-171.1 1621 1825 16.56% 23.63% 59.81%-1.24 +6.0 52
1998-10-18 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-171.1 1825 1621 59.81% 23.63% 16.56%+1.24 -6.0 57
1998-10-18 Dinaburg D 0-053.2 1403 1442 34.74% 24.61% 40.64%-0.14 +0.8 28
1998-10-18 @ LU Daugava Rga D 0-053.2 1442 1403 40.64% 24.61% 34.74%+0.14 -0.8 39
1998-10-18 Ranto-Miks W 3-238.7 1680 1046 83.12% 15.28% 1.60%+4.35 +1.0 48
1998-10-18 @ Ventspils L 2-338.7 1046 1680 1.60% 15.28% 83.12%-4.35 -1.0 10
1998-10-24 LU Daugava Rga D 1-152.7 1045 1404 7.71% 21.47% 70.82%-2.27 +9.2 11
1998-10-24 @ Ranto-Miks D 1-152.7 1404 1045 70.82% 21.47% 7.71%+2.27 -9.3 29
1998-10-25 Skonto L 1-631.4 1032 1819 0.88% 12.94% 86.18%-5.12 -2.1 8
1998-10-25 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-131.4 1819 1032 86.18% 12.94% 0.88%+5.12 +2.1 60
1998-10-25 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-164.2 1442 1627 18.18% 23.82% 58.00%-1.11 +5.5 40
1998-10-25 @ Dinaburg D 1-164.2 1627 1442 58.00% 23.82% 18.18%+1.11 -5.5 53
1998-10-25 Ventspils L 0-344.1 1395 1681 11.07% 22.61% 66.33%-1.78 -23.0 33
1998-10-25 @ Valmiera W 3-044.1 1681 1395 66.33% 22.61% 11.07%+1.78 +23.0 51
1998-10-28 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-171.2 1821 1621 62.63% 23.26% 14.11%+1.46 -6.9 61
1998-10-28 @ Skonto D 1-171.2 1621 1821 14.11% 23.26% 62.63%-1.46 +6.9 54
1998-10-31 Skonto L 1-451.0 1447 1814 7.39% 21.33% 71.27%-2.32 -13.0 40
1998-10-31 @ Dinaburg W 4-151.0 1814 1447 71.27% 21.33% 7.39%+2.32 +13.0 64
1998-10-31 Ranto-Miks W 5-130.8 1628 1054 81.28% 16.54% 2.17%+3.95 +4.5 57
1998-10-31 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-530.8 1054 1628 2.17% 16.54% 81.28%-3.95 -4.5 11
1998-10-31 Valmiera D 0-051.4 1394 1372 43.45% 24.58% 31.98%+0.27 -1.6 30
1998-10-31 @ LU Daugava Rga D 0-051.4 1372 1394 31.98% 24.58% 43.45%-0.27 +1.6 34
1998-10-31 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-028.3 1704 1029 84.25% 14.46% 1.30%+4.62 +2.4 54
1998-10-31 @ Ventspils L 0-328.3 1029 1704 1.30% 14.46% 84.25%-4.62 -2.4 8
1998-11-07 LU Daugava Rga W 2-155.8 1027 1393 7.45% 21.36% 71.19%-2.31 +39.5 11
1998-11-07 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne L 1-255.8 1393 1027 71.19% 21.36% 7.45%+2.31 -39.5 30
1998-11-07 Dinaburg L 2-536.7 1049 1434 6.78% 21.03% 72.19%-2.44 -10.3 11
1998-11-07 @ Ranto-Miks W 5-236.7 1434 1049 72.19% 21.03% 6.78%+2.44 +10.3 43
1998-11-07 Ventspils W 4-053.1 1827 1707 55.26% 24.06% 20.68%+0.93 +52.8 67
1998-11-07 @ Skonto L 0-453.1 1707 1827 20.68% 24.06% 55.26%-0.93 -52.8 54
1998-11-07 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-164.2 1373 1632 12.67% 22.98% 64.34%-1.60 +35.9 37
1998-11-07 @ Valmiera L 1-264.2 1632 1373 64.34% 22.98% 12.67%+1.60 -35.9 57

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1998-06-28 6.58% @ Ranto-Miks 1087 2 LU Daugava Rga 1478 1
2 1998-11-07 7.45% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1027 2 LU Daugava Rga 1393 1
3 1998-04-25 11.30% LU Daugava Rga 1470 3 @ Skonto 1715 2
4 1998-11-07 12.67% @ Valmiera 1373 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1632 1
5 1998-08-16 13.94% LU Daugava Rga 1393 2 @ Dinaburg 1596 0
6 1998-05-29 14.54% @ Ventspils 1411 2 Skonto 1642 1
7 1998-05-24 15.43% Dinaburg 1528 2 @ Skonto 1710 0
8 1998-07-15 17.87% @ Valmiera 1360 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1548 1
9 1998-05-20 18.48% Valmiera 1337 3 @ Ventspils 1481 0
10 1998-07-20 20.35% Liepajas Metalurgs 1516 1 @ Dinaburg 1640 0
11 1998-06-16 22.78% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1084 3 @ Ranto-Miks 1184 1
12 1998-08-30 24.80% @ Valmiera 1353 2 LU Daugava Rga 1472 1
13 1998-06-07 26.37% @ Ventspils 1445 1 LU Daugava Rga 1550 0
14 1998-09-25 30.00% @ Ventspils 1588 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1663 0
15 1998-08-06 30.69% Ranto-Miks 1066 2 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1098 1
16 1998-06-11 34.73% Liepajas Metalurgs 1473 1 @ Ventspils 1475 0
17 1998-05-29 35.20% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1397 4 Valmiera 1433 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-05-20 93.74 Valmiera 3 1337 18.48% @ Ventspils 0 1481 57.67% 23.85%
2 1998-08-16 70.15 LU Daugava Rga 2 1393 13.94% @ Dinaburg 0 1596 62.84% 23.22%
3 1998-05-24 68.25 Dinaburg 2 1528 15.43% @ Skonto 0 1710 61.10% 23.47%
4 1998-05-29 57.76 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1397 35.20% Valmiera 1 1433 40.18% 24.62%
5 1998-06-11 56.29 @ Valmiera 4 1344 53.48% Ranto-Miks 0 1240 22.34% 24.18%
6 1998-07-10 53.94 @ Ventspils 3 1508 46.02% LU Daugava Rga 0 1466 29.47% 24.52%
7 1998-11-07 52.76 @ Skonto 4 1827 55.26% Ventspils 0 1707 20.68% 24.06%
8 1998-09-25 52.13 @ Ventspils 2 1588 30.00% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1663 45.47% 24.53%
9 1998-06-16 51.65 Dizvanagi Rezekne 3 1084 22.78% @ Ranto-Miks 1 1184 53.01% 24.21%
10 1998-08-22 50.20 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1588 48.64% Dinaburg 0 1526 26.93% 24.43%
11 1998-06-07 45.33 @ Skonto 9 1607 70.83% Ranto-Miks 0 1285 7.70% 21.47%
12 1998-06-21 44.75 @ Ventspils 9 1456 70.97% Ranto-Miks 0 1132 7.60% 21.43%
13 1998-05-12 44.06 @ Valmiera 3 1293 52.83% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1194 22.95% 24.22%
14 1998-10-04 40.56 Ventspils 3 1640 55.15% @ Dinaburg 0 1483 20.79% 24.07%
15 1998-06-28 40.17 @ Ranto-Miks 2 1087 6.58% LU Daugava Rga 1 1478 72.49% 20.93%
16 1998-11-07 39.54 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 1027 7.45% LU Daugava Rga 1 1393 71.19% 21.36%
17 1998-05-20 38.45 @ LU Daugava Rga 3 1501 56.52% Ranto-Miks 0 1369 19.52% 23.95%
18 1998-10-18 36.26 Valmiera 5 1359 66.63% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1068 10.83% 22.54%
19 1998-11-07 35.90 @ Valmiera 2 1373 12.67% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1632 64.34% 22.98%
20 1998-08-22 35.57 @ Ventspils 3 1540 58.38% Valmiera 0 1389 17.84% 23.78%
21 1998-04-25 34.94 LU Daugava Rga 3 1470 11.30% @ Skonto 2 1715 66.04% 22.67%
22 1998-05-29 34.69 @ Ventspils 2 1411 14.54% Skonto 1 1642 62.14% 23.33%
23 1998-07-20 33.07 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1516 20.35% @ Dinaburg 0 1640 55.62% 24.03%
24 1998-07-15 32.63 @ Valmiera 2 1360 17.87% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1548 58.35% 23.78%
25 1998-06-07 30.93 @ Dinaburg 6 1622 66.20% Valmiera 1 1375 11.17% 22.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-04-25 74.0 LU Daugava Rga 3 1470 11.30% @ Skonto 2 1715 66.04% 22.67%
2 1998-04-18 73.4 @ Ranto-Miks 3 1392 8.98% Skonto 3 1720 69.04% 21.98%
3 1998-10-28 71.2 @ Skonto 1 1821 62.63% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1621 14.11% 23.26%
4 1998-10-18 71.1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1621 16.56% Skonto 1 1825 59.81% 23.63%
5 1998-08-06 66.0 @ Ventspils 1 1527 29.90% Dinaburg 1 1602 45.57% 24.53%
6 1998-06-21 65.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1518 18.32% Skonto 0 1701 57.84% 23.83%
7 1998-05-29 65.3 @ Ventspils 2 1411 14.54% Skonto 1 1642 62.14% 23.33%
8 1998-05-24 65.2 Dinaburg 2 1528 15.43% @ Skonto 0 1710 61.10% 23.47%
9 1998-08-11 65.1 @ LU Daugava Rga 2 1389 15.98% Dinaburg 2 1600 60.47% 23.55%
10 1998-10-25 64.2 @ Dinaburg 1 1442 18.18% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1627 58.00% 23.82%
11 1998-11-07 64.2 @ Valmiera 2 1373 12.67% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1632 64.34% 22.98%
12 1998-05-24 64.1 @ Valmiera 2 1430 25.83% LU Daugava Rga 2 1540 49.79% 24.38%
13 1998-07-20 63.4 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1516 20.35% @ Dinaburg 0 1640 55.62% 24.03%
14 1998-06-16 62.5 @ Ventspils 0 1450 16.47% Dinaburg 0 1655 59.91% 23.61%
15 1998-09-11 62.5 Skonto 3 1780 59.07% @ Ventspils 2 1584 17.23% 23.71%
16 1998-06-11 62.3 Skonto 5 1652 52.43% @ LU Daugava Rga 3 1520 23.32% 24.25%
17 1998-07-23 61.8 @ Valmiera 1 1392 15.78% Dinaburg 1 1607 60.70% 23.52%
18 1998-09-25 61.0 @ Ventspils 2 1588 30.00% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1663 45.47% 24.53%
19 1998-05-03 60.6 @ Dinaburg 1 1516 48.03% Ventspils 1 1458 27.52% 24.45%
20 1998-07-01 60.3 Skonto 1 1699 42.18% @ Dinaburg 0 1648 33.23% 24.60%
21 1998-06-16 59.2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1498 40.31% LU Daugava Rga 2 1498 35.07% 24.62%
22 1998-07-15 59.1 @ Valmiera 2 1360 17.87% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1548 58.35% 23.78%
23 1998-05-12 59.0 @ Dinaburg 0 1513 42.18% LU Daugava Rga 0 1500 33.22% 24.60%
24 1998-04-18 58.9 @ LU Daugava Rga 1 1471 42.01% Ventspils 1 1459 33.39% 24.60%
25 1998-08-16 58.1 LU Daugava Rga 2 1393 13.94% @ Dinaburg 0 1596 62.84% 23.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-09-21 27.0 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 7 1653 81.12% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1084 2.23% 16.65%
2 1998-07-15 27.8 Dinaburg 6 1627 78.26% @ Ranto-Miks 0 1103 3.38% 18.36%
3 1998-07-01 27.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 7 1524 74.57% Ranto-Miks 0 1127 5.30% 20.13%
4 1998-10-31 28.3 @ Ventspils 3 1704 84.25% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1029 1.30% 14.46%
5 1998-06-21 28.7 @ Ventspils 9 1456 70.97% Ranto-Miks 0 1132 7.60% 21.43%
6 1998-06-07 29.0 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1454 72.35% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1104 6.67% 20.98%
7 1998-09-20 29.0 @ Skonto 4 1791 85.88% Ranto-Miks 0 1053 0.94% 13.18%
8 1998-08-30 29.5 Ventspils 3 1576 77.11% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1082 3.93% 18.96%
9 1998-05-20 29.6 @ Skonto 7 1699 80.48% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1150 2.46% 17.06%
10 1998-10-18 29.6 Valmiera 5 1359 66.63% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1068 10.83% 22.54%
11 1998-08-31 30.4 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1639 79.81% @ Ranto-Miks 1 1072 2.72% 17.47%
12 1998-10-31 30.8 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1628 81.28% Ranto-Miks 1 1054 2.17% 16.54%
13 1998-08-24 31.1 @ LU Daugava Rga 2 1463 73.97% Ranto-Miks 0 1080 5.66% 20.37%
14 1998-08-01 31.2 Valmiera 3 1398 68.03% @ Ranto-Miks 0 1086 9.74% 22.23%
15 1998-10-25 31.4 Skonto 6 1819 86.18% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1032 0.88% 12.94%
16 1998-09-12 31.6 @ Dinaburg 5 1469 74.93% Ranto-Miks 1 1065 5.09% 19.98%
17 1998-05-29 31.7 @ LU Daugava Rga 8 1537 75.65% Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 1116 4.69% 19.66%
18 1998-08-16 32.2 Ventspils 5 1529 74.71% @ Ranto-Miks 1 1092 5.22% 20.07%
19 1998-06-11 32.8 Dinaburg 1 1653 79.84% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1086 2.71% 17.45%
20 1998-06-28 32.9 Skonto 2 1695 79.92% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1126 2.68% 17.41%
21 1998-09-26 33.2 @ Valmiera 1 1379 71.16% Ranto-Miks 0 1051 7.47% 21.37%
22 1998-07-25 33.8 Skonto 7 1733 82.27% @ Ranto-Miks 2 1090 1.85% 15.88%
23 1998-07-01 33.9 @ Ventspils 4 1497 73.58% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1122 5.89% 20.52%
24 1998-06-07 34.0 @ Skonto 9 1607 70.83% Ranto-Miks 0 1285 7.70% 21.47%
25 1998-08-22 34.0 @ Skonto 1 1773 84.65% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1083 1.20% 14.15%