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1997 Virsliga Season

108 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

64 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valmiera

9.91 points above expected

28 points · 18.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lokomotve Daugavpils

9.87 points below expected

17 points · 26.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 24 20 4 0 64 89 8 +81 59.86 +4.14
2 Daugava Riga 24 13 4 7 43 35 27 +8 45.31 -2.31
3 Dinaburg 24 12 6 6 42 37 19 +18 43.32 -1.32
4 Ventspils 24 12 6 6 42 32 21 +11 34.59 +7.41
5 Baltika Liepja 24 9 4 11 31 27 32 -5 33.29 -2.29
6 Universitate Riga 24 8 5 11 29 25 42 -17 30.60 -1.60
7 Valmiera 24 8 4 12 28 29 43 -14 18.09 +9.91
8 Lokomotve Daugavpils 24 5 2 17 17 29 52 -23 26.87 -9.87
9 Dizvanagi Rezekne 24 1 5 18 8 10 69 -59 13.32 -5.32

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valmiera 28 18.09 +9.91
2 Ventspils 42 34.59 +7.41
3 Skonto 64 59.86 +4.14
4 Dinaburg 42 43.32 -1.32
5 Universitate Riga 29 30.60 -1.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lokomotve Daugavpils 17 26.87 -9.87
2 Dizvanagi Rezekne 8 13.32 -5.32
3 Daugava Riga 43 45.31 -2.31
4 Baltika Liepja 31 33.29 -2.29
5 Universitate Riga 29 30.60 -1.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Universitate Riga 4 Jul 26 – Aug 21 1 in 49
2 Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 Oct 4 – Oct 4 1 in 20
3 Dinaburg 5 Jun 21 – Jul 26 1 in 13
4 Valmiera 2 Aug 3 – Aug 8 1 in 12
5 Ventspils 2 Apr 18 – Apr 23 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dizvanagi Rezekne 11 Jun 14 – Sep 12 1 in 48
2 Baltika Liepja 3 Jun 14 – Jun 26 1 in 26
3 Lokomotve Daugavpils 6 Jun 26 – Aug 21 1 in 20
4 Universitate Riga 5 Apr 23 – Jun 1 1 in 18
5 Daugava Riga 2 May 11 – May 21 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valmiera 5 Aug 3 – Sep 15 1 in 40
2 Universitate Riga 5 Jul 26 – Sep 2 1 in 25
3 Dinaburg 9 Jun 21 – Sep 2 1 in 18
4 Ventspils 5 May 25 – Jul 16 1 in 13
5 Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 Apr 23 – May 3 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dizvanagi Rezekne 20 Apr 12 – Sep 27 1 in 32
2 Dinaburg 4 Oct 4 – Oct 25 1 in 16
3 Daugava Riga 3 May 3 – May 21 1 in 15
4 Baltika Liepja 3 Jun 14 – Jun 26 1 in 6
5 Lokomotve Daugavpils 7 Jun 26 – Aug 30 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1909 64 +19 13 12.6 +0.4
Daugava Riga 1550 43 -41 5 8.2 -3.2
Ventspils 1528 42 +38 11 7.5 +3.5
Dinaburg 1583 42 +31 7 7.2 -0.2
Baltika Liepja 1415 31 -21 4 5.9 -1.9
Universitate Riga 1372 29 -53 5 6.8 -1.8
Valmiera 1331 28 +26 6 4.4 +1.6
Lokomotve Daugavpils 1296 17 -14 3 4.8 -1.8
Dizvanagi Rezekne 1126 8 +28 4 1.8 +2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BL DR DIN DR LD SKO UR VAL VEN
Baltika Liepja —
0-1-2
2.86
1-1-1
2.60
2-1-0
6.51
3-0-0
5.24
0-0-3
1.02
1-0-2
4.63
1-1-1
6.34
1-0-2
3.78
Daugava Riga
2-1-0
5.56
 —
1-1-1
4.98
1-2-0
7.60
2-0-1
6.53
0-0-3
1.95
2-0-1
6.18
3-0-0
7.06
2-0-1
5.55
Dinaburg
1-1-1
5.83
1-1-1
3.43
 —
2-0-1
7.56
3-0-0
6.68
0-2-1
1.48
1-1-1
5.96
3-0-0
7.18
1-1-1
5.53
Dizvanagi Rezekne
0-1-2
1.94
0-2-1
0.93
1-0-2
0.96
 —
0-0-3
2.94
0-0-3
0.45
0-1-2
1.78
0-0-3
3.44
0-1-2
1.54
Lokomotve Daugavpils
0-0-3
3.18
1-0-2
1.92
0-0-3
1.77
3-0-0
5.49
 —
0-0-3
0.94
1-0-2
3.92
0-2-1
4.99
0-0-3
3.71
Skonto
3-0-0
7.50
3-0-0
6.50
1-2-0
6.99
3-0-0
8.20
3-0-0
7.61
 —
3-0-0
7.46
3-0-0
7.94
1-2-0
7.25
Universitate Riga
2-0-1
3.79
1-0-2
2.26
1-1-1
2.47
2-1-0
6.68
2-0-1
4.49
0-0-3
1.05
 —
0-1-2
6.28
0-2-1
3.46
Valmiera
1-1-1
2.10
0-0-3
1.42
0-0-3
1.30
3-0-0
4.98
1-2-0
3.43
0-0-3
0.65
2-1-0
2.16
 —
1-0-2
1.99
Ventspils
2-0-1
4.63
1-0-2
2.88
1-1-1
2.89
2-1-0
6.93
3-0-0
4.71
0-2-1
1.24
1-2-0
4.96
2-0-1
6.45
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +6.5
Allowed 0.93 -8.4
Differential 0.94 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%10.19%4.63%6.48%2.31%2.78%34.72%
110.19%8.33%5.09%2.78%0.93%2.78%30.09%
24.63%5.09%1.85%0.93%1.39%0.46%14.35%
36.48%2.78%0.93%———10.19%
42.31%0.93%1.39%———4.63%
5+2.78%2.78%0.46%———6.02%
Total34.72%30.09%14.35%10.19%4.63%6.02%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.72 1.72 2.74
CV 1.19 1.19 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%4.17%——4.17%33.33%
112.50%8.33%12.50%8.33%——41.67%
24.17%4.17%————8.33%
34.17%8.33%————12.50%
4——4.17%———4.17%
5+———————
Total29.17%37.50%20.83%8.33%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.33 -0.21
SD 1.15 1.52 2.04
CV 1.03 1.14 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%8.33%12.50%4.17%—4.17%33.33%
116.67%8.33%————25.00%
24.17%12.50%4.17%———20.83%
38.33%—————8.33%
44.17%—4.17%———8.33%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total37.50%33.33%20.83%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.12 +0.33
SD 1.47 1.36 2.30
CV 1.01 1.21 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%————25.00%
116.67%8.33%4.17%4.17%——33.33%
212.50%—4.17%—4.17%—20.83%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
4———————
5+—8.33%————8.33%
Total50.00%33.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.79 +0.75
SD 1.44 1.06 1.73
CV 0.94 1.34 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%—20.83%8.33%8.33%70.83%
1—4.17%8.33%——8.33%20.83%
2————4.17%—4.17%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%25.00%8.33%20.83%12.50%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.42 2.88 -2.46
SD 0.78 2.91 3.04
CV 1.86 1.01 —
Max 3 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%—8.33%—33.33%
14.17%8.33%4.17%8.33%8.33%8.33%41.67%
24.17%——8.33%——12.50%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total16.67%25.00%16.67%16.67%16.67%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 2.17 -0.96
SD 1.44 1.61 2.48
CV 1.20 0.74 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—————12.50%
18.33%4.17%————12.50%
28.33%—————8.33%
316.67%—————16.67%
44.17%8.33%4.17%———16.67%
5+25.00%4.17%4.17%———33.33%
Total75.00%16.67%8.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.71 0.33 +3.38
SD 2.88 0.64 2.92
CV 0.78 1.91 —
Max 12 2 +12
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%4.17%16.67%—4.17%41.67%
1—8.33%4.17%4.17%—4.17%20.83%
24.17%20.83%4.17%———29.17%
34.17%—4.17%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%37.50%16.67%20.83%—8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.75 -0.71
SD 1.04 1.42 2.03
CV 1.00 0.81 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%16.67%4.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%41.67%
14.17%12.50%———4.17%20.83%
2—4.17%——4.17%4.17%12.50%
312.50%8.33%4.17%———25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%41.67%8.33%8.33%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.79 -0.58
SD 1.25 1.69 2.34
CV 1.03 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—4.17%8.33%——20.83%
129.17%12.50%12.50%———54.17%
24.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
3———————
48.33%—————8.33%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total50.00%20.83%20.83%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.88 +0.46
SD 1.31 1.03 1.86
CV 0.98 1.18 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1909 64 59.86 +4.14 84.0% 46 52 57 60 63 67 70
Dinaburg 1583 42 43.32 -1.32 39.0% 31 34 40 44 47 52 55
Daugava Riga 1550 43 45.31 -2.31 36.0% 32 35 41 45 49 56 59
Ventspils 1528 42 34.59 +7.41 91.0% 25 26 31 34 38 45 47
Baltika Liepja 1415 31 33.29 -2.29 37.0% 21 21 29 33 37 43 47
Universitate Riga 1372 29 30.60 -1.60 42.0% 18 22 26 30 35 40 44
Valmiera 1331 28 18.09 +9.91 97.0% 6 8 15 18 22 27 32
Lokomotve Daugavpils 1296 17 26.87 -9.87 6.0% 14 17 23 26 31 36 38
Dizvanagi Rezekne 1126 8 13.32 -5.32 14.0% 2 6 9 13 16 22 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.96%
Strong Edge
47.22%18.52%34.26%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 45.29 Elo pts.
161 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.55 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.1
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
96%
Skonto, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.88/gm
Runaway
00.511.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.4 * Some Luck: 4.4 to 6.6 * Lucky: 6.6 to 8.8 * Wild Swing: 8.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.54 * Close: 0.54 to 0.81 * Off: 0.81 to 1.09 * Way Off: 1.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.88 points
Some Luck
05.5014
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.22
Pinpoint
00.681.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
97.00%
Valmiera
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Lokomotve Daugavpils
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 221.97
2.44
Coin-Flip Parity
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
78%
Even
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Some Drama
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.15
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Shaky Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.150
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1470.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Skonto96.00%3.00%1.00%——————
Daugava Riga2.00%51.00%32.00%13.00%2.00%————
Dinaburg1.00%40.00%41.00%12.00%3.00%3.00%———
Ventspils—4.00%13.00%25.00%28.00%22.00%8.00%——
Baltika Liepja1.00%1.00%8.00%28.00%26.00%23.00%10.00%3.00%—
Universitate Riga—1.00%4.00%15.00%20.00%27.00%26.00%7.00%—
Valmiera————3.00%2.00%15.00%56.00%24.00%
Lokomotve Daugavpils——1.00%7.00%18.00%20.00%37.00%15.00%2.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne—————3.00%4.00%19.00%74.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Baltika Liepja 100% —
Daugava Riga 100% —
Dinaburg 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Universitate Riga 100% —
Ventspils 100% —
Lokomotve Daugavpils 98.00% 2.00%
Valmiera 76.00% 24.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne 26.00% 74.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1997-04-12 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 1-641.8 1326 1393 37.15% 19.63% 43.21%-0.13 -55.0 0
1997-04-12 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-141.8 1393 1326 43.21% 19.63% 37.15%+0.13 +55.0 3
1997-04-12 Baltika Liepja D 0-059.1 1549 1413 62.25% 18.93% 18.82%+1.12 -4.4 1
1997-04-12 @ Dinaburg D 0-059.1 1413 1549 18.82% 18.93% 62.25%-1.12 +4.4 1
1997-04-12 Universitate Riga W 3-049.2 1143 1484 10.74% 17.80% 71.47%-1.84 +74.3 3
1997-04-12 @ Valmiera L 0-349.2 1484 1143 71.47% 17.80% 10.74%+1.84 -74.3 0
1997-04-12 Skonto L 0-346.0 1425 1764 10.89% 17.83% 71.29%-1.82 -13.7 0
1997-04-12 @ Ventspils W 3-046.0 1764 1425 71.29% 17.83% 10.89%+1.82 +13.7 3
1997-04-18 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-034.2 1410 1271 62.59% 18.90% 18.51%+1.14 +22.6 3
1997-04-18 @ Universitate Riga L 0-334.2 1271 1410 18.51% 18.90% 62.59%-1.14 -22.6 0
1997-04-18 Valmiera W 1-035.3 1418 1217 67.91% 18.34% 13.75%+1.52 +6.3 4
1997-04-18 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-135.3 1217 1418 13.75% 18.34% 67.91%-1.52 -6.3 3
1997-04-18 Ventspils L 0-150.9 1448 1412 51.22% 19.50% 29.29%+0.50 -19.7 3
1997-04-18 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-050.9 1412 1448 29.29% 19.50% 51.22%-0.50 +19.7 3
1997-04-18 Dinaburg W 1-053.2 1612 1544 55.14% 19.36% 25.50%+0.70 +11.0 3
1997-04-18 @ Daugava Riga L 0-153.2 1544 1612 25.50% 19.36% 55.14%-0.70 -11.0 1
1997-04-23 Baltika Liepja D 0-051.9 1248 1424 23.69% 19.27% 57.05%-0.81 +3.3 1
1997-04-23 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-051.9 1424 1248 57.05% 19.27% 23.69%+0.81 -3.3 5
1997-04-23 Skonto L 0-445.1 1428 1778 10.30% 17.70% 72.01%-1.89 -16.9 3
1997-04-23 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 4-045.1 1778 1428 72.01% 17.70% 10.30%+1.89 +16.9 6
1997-04-23 Daugava Riga L 0-333.1 1211 1623 7.51% 16.90% 75.59%-2.28 -9.4 3
1997-04-23 @ Valmiera W 3-033.1 1623 1211 75.59% 16.90% 7.51%+2.28 +9.4 6
1997-04-23 Universitate Riga W 2-044.2 1431 1433 46.37% 19.60% 34.03%+0.27 +26.4 6
1997-04-23 @ Ventspils L 0-244.2 1433 1431 34.03% 19.60% 46.37%-0.27 -26.4 3
1997-05-03 Skonto L 0-345.4 1406 1795 8.48% 17.21% 74.30%-2.13 -10.7 3
1997-05-03 @ Universitate Riga W 3-045.4 1795 1406 74.30% 17.21% 8.48%+2.13 +10.7 9
1997-05-03 Ventspils W 3-044.6 1421 1458 41.35% 19.64% 39.01%+0.05 +42.9 8
1997-05-03 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-344.6 1458 1421 39.01% 19.64% 41.35%-0.05 -42.9 6
1997-05-03 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-057.3 1633 1252 78.36% 16.07% 5.57%+2.64 -7.8 7
1997-05-03 @ Daugava Riga D 0-057.3 1252 1633 5.57% 16.07% 78.36%-2.64 +7.8 2
1997-05-11 Universitate Riga W 1-043.7 1411 1395 48.60% 19.56% 31.84%+0.38 +13.3 6
1997-05-11 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-143.7 1395 1411 31.84% 19.56% 48.60%-0.38 -13.2 3
1997-05-11 Baltika Liepja W 2-047.5 1806 1464 76.58% 16.63% 6.80%+2.40 +5.9 12
1997-05-11 @ Skonto L 0-247.5 1464 1806 6.80% 16.63% 76.58%-2.40 -5.9 8
1997-05-11 Daugava Riga W 1-059.9 1415 1625 20.25% 19.05% 60.71%-1.02 +23.1 9
1997-05-11 @ Ventspils L 0-159.9 1625 1415 60.71% 19.05% 20.25%+1.02 -23.1 7
1997-05-15 Valmiera W 2-032.3 1533 1201 76.09% 16.76% 7.15%+2.34 +6.2 4
1997-05-15 @ Dinaburg L 0-232.3 1201 1533 7.15% 16.76% 76.09%-2.34 -6.2 3
1997-05-21 Ventspils W 2-044.3 1539 1438 58.82% 19.17% 22.01%+0.91 +18.2 7
1997-05-21 @ Dinaburg L 0-244.3 1438 1539 22.01% 19.17% 58.82%-0.91 -18.2 9
1997-05-21 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-043.3 1458 1424 50.91% 19.50% 29.59%+0.49 +23.5 11
1997-05-21 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-243.3 1424 1458 29.59% 19.50% 50.91%-0.49 -23.5 6
1997-05-21 Skonto L 0-253.7 1602 1811 20.30% 19.05% 60.65%-1.02 -16.9 7
1997-05-21 @ Daugava Riga W 2-053.7 1811 1602 60.65% 19.05% 20.30%+1.02 +16.9 15
1997-05-21 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-040.4 1195 1260 37.44% 19.63% 42.93%-0.12 +46.4 6
1997-05-21 @ Valmiera L 0-340.4 1260 1195 42.93% 19.63% 37.44%+0.12 -46.4 2
1997-05-25 Baltika Liepja L 0-145.5 1382 1481 32.76% 19.58% 47.66%-0.33 -13.6 3
1997-05-25 @ Universitate Riga W 1-045.5 1481 1382 47.66% 19.58% 32.76%+0.33 +13.6 14
1997-05-25 Daugava Riga L 0-244.8 1401 1585 22.78% 19.22% 58.00%-0.86 -18.8 6
1997-05-25 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-044.8 1585 1401 58.00% 19.22% 22.78%+0.86 +18.8 10
1997-05-25 Dinaburg D 0-069.8 1828 1558 72.71% 17.56% 9.73%+1.96 -6.7 16
1997-05-25 @ Skonto D 0-069.8 1558 1828 9.73% 17.56% 72.71%-1.96 +6.7 8
1997-05-25 Valmiera W 4-031.9 1420 1241 66.12% 18.56% 15.32%+1.39 +24.8 12
1997-05-25 @ Ventspils L 0-431.9 1241 1420 15.32% 18.56% 66.12%-1.39 -24.8 6
1997-06-01 Ventspils D 0-051.9 1213 1445 18.33% 18.88% 62.79%-1.15 +4.5 3
1997-06-01 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-051.9 1445 1213 62.79% 18.88% 18.33%+1.15 -4.5 13
1997-06-01 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-040.9 1564 1382 66.42% 18.52% 15.05%+1.41 +12.8 11
1997-06-01 @ Dinaburg L 0-240.9 1382 1564 15.05% 18.52% 66.42%-1.41 -12.9 6
1997-06-01 Universitate Riga W 2-146.9 1604 1369 70.40% 17.98% 11.62%+1.74 +5.0 13
1997-06-01 @ Daugava Riga L 1-246.9 1369 1604 11.62% 17.98% 70.40%-1.74 -5.0 3
1997-06-01 Skonto L 0-536.2 1217 1822 2.80% 14.00% 83.20%-3.47 -5.4 6
1997-06-01 @ Valmiera W 5-036.2 1822 1217 83.20% 14.00% 2.80%+3.47 +5.4 19
1997-06-14 Dinaburg W 2-160.8 1364 1577 19.93% 19.02% 61.05%-1.04 +21.9 6
1997-06-14 @ Universitate Riga L 1-260.8 1577 1364 61.05% 19.02% 19.93%+1.04 -21.9 11
1997-06-14 Daugava Riga L 0-153.3 1495 1609 30.84% 19.54% 49.62%-0.43 -12.9 14
1997-06-14 @ Baltika Liepja W 1-053.3 1609 1495 49.62% 19.54% 30.84%+0.43 +12.9 16
1997-06-14 Valmiera D 1-155.2 1369 1211 64.35% 18.74% 16.90%+1.26 -4.4 7
1997-06-14 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-155.2 1211 1369 16.90% 18.74% 64.35%-1.26 +4.4 7
1997-06-14 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 9-035.6 1827 1218 85.82% 12.47% 1.71%+4.05 +5.6 22
1997-06-14 @ Skonto L 0-935.6 1218 1827 1.71% 12.47% 85.82%-4.05 -5.6 3
1997-06-21 Dinaburg L 1-355.6 1482 1555 36.23% 19.63% 44.15%-0.17 -24.1 14
1997-06-21 @ Baltika Liepja W 3-155.6 1555 1482 44.15% 19.63% 36.23%+0.17 +24.1 14
1997-06-21 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-031.9 1365 1212 63.87% 18.79% 17.34%+1.23 +27.8 10
1997-06-21 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-431.9 1212 1365 17.34% 18.79% 63.87%-1.23 -27.8 3
1997-06-21 Ventspils D 1-173.0 1833 1440 78.85% 15.90% 5.25%+2.71 -7.0 23
1997-06-21 @ Skonto D 1-173.0 1440 1833 5.25% 15.90% 78.85%-2.71 +7.0 14
1997-06-26 Daugava Riga W 1-058.7 1579 1622 40.59% 19.64% 39.77%+0.02 +15.9 17
1997-06-26 @ Dinaburg L 0-158.7 1622 1579 39.77% 19.64% 40.59%-0.02 -15.9 16
1997-06-26 Baltika Liepja W 3-153.8 1215 1458 17.42% 18.80% 63.79%-1.22 +39.6 10
1997-06-26 @ Valmiera L 1-353.8 1458 1215 63.79% 18.80% 17.42%+1.22 -39.6 14
1997-06-26 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 4-038.8 1447 1393 53.52% 19.42% 27.06%+0.62 +41.3 17
1997-06-26 @ Ventspils L 0-438.8 1393 1447 27.06% 19.42% 53.52%-0.62 -41.3 10
1997-07-05 Dinaburg L 0-331.8 1184 1595 7.59% 16.92% 75.49%-2.26 -9.5 3
1997-07-05 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-031.8 1595 1184 75.49% 16.92% 7.59%+2.26 +9.5 20
1997-07-13 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-240.8 1418 1175 70.96% 17.88% 11.16%+1.79 +7.5 17
1997-07-13 @ Baltika Liepja L 2-440.8 1175 1418 11.16% 17.88% 70.96%-1.79 -7.5 3
1997-07-13 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 4-146.9 1826 1351 81.91% 14.64% 3.45%+3.22 +3.5 26
1997-07-13 @ Skonto L 1-446.9 1351 1826 3.45% 14.64% 81.91%-3.22 -3.5 10
1997-07-13 Valmiera W 1-036.6 1606 1255 76.99% 16.50% 6.50%+2.45 +3.0 19
1997-07-13 @ Daugava Riga L 0-136.6 1255 1606 6.50% 16.50% 76.99%-2.45 -3.0 10
1997-07-16 Daugava Riga L 0-430.3 1167 1609 6.50% 16.50% 77.00%-2.45 -10.6 3
1997-07-16 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 4-030.3 1609 1167 77.00% 16.50% 6.50%+2.45 +10.6 22
1997-07-16 Universitate Riga W 5-042.1 1829 1385 80.84% 15.12% 4.04%+3.03 +8.0 29
1997-07-16 @ Skonto L 0-542.1 1385 1829 4.04% 15.12% 80.84%-3.03 -8.0 6
1997-07-16 Dinaburg L 0-334.7 1252 1605 10.17% 17.67% 72.16%-1.90 -12.8 10
1997-07-16 @ Valmiera W 3-034.7 1605 1252 72.16% 17.67% 10.17%+1.90 +12.8 23
1997-07-16 Baltika Liepja W 1-045.0 1489 1426 54.51% 19.38% 26.11%+0.67 +11.2 20
1997-07-16 @ Ventspils L 0-145.0 1426 1489 26.11% 19.38% 54.51%-0.67 -11.2 17
1997-07-26 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-033.2 1618 1157 81.45% 14.85% 3.70%+3.13 +1.7 26
1997-07-26 @ Dinaburg L 0-133.2 1157 1618 3.70% 14.85% 81.45%-3.13 -1.7 3
1997-07-26 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 3-250.5 1377 1348 50.43% 19.52% 30.05%+0.46 +11.3 9
1997-07-26 @ Universitate Riga L 2-350.5 1348 1377 30.05% 19.52% 50.43%-0.46 -11.3 10
1997-07-26 Skonto L 0-149.0 1414 1837 7.14% 16.76% 76.09%-2.34 -3.3 17
1997-07-26 @ Baltika Liepja W 1-049.0 1837 1414 76.09% 16.76% 7.14%+2.34 +3.3 32
1997-07-26 Ventspils W 2-155.0 1619 1500 60.72% 19.04% 20.23%+1.02 +8.4 25
1997-07-26 @ Daugava Riga L 1-255.0 1500 1619 20.23% 19.04% 60.72%-1.02 -8.4 20
1997-08-03 Valmiera L 0-141.0 1155 1239 34.73% 19.61% 45.66%-0.24 -14.2 3
1997-08-03 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-041.0 1239 1155 45.66% 19.61% 34.73%+0.24 +14.2 13
1997-08-03 Baltika Liepja L 1-346.8 1336 1411 36.03% 19.62% 44.34%-0.18 -24.0 10
1997-08-03 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 3-146.8 1411 1336 44.34% 19.62% 36.03%+0.18 +24.0 20
1997-08-03 Daugava Riga W 6-048.3 1840 1628 68.79% 18.22% 12.98%+1.60 +31.0 35
1997-08-03 @ Skonto L 0-648.3 1628 1840 12.98% 18.22% 68.79%-1.60 -31.0 25
1997-08-03 Dinaburg D 1-168.1 1491 1619 29.12% 19.49% 51.39%-0.51 +1.9 21
1997-08-03 @ Ventspils D 1-168.1 1619 1491 51.39% 19.49% 29.12%+0.51 -1.9 27
1997-08-08 Skonto D 0-070.0 1617 1872 16.45% 18.69% 64.85%-1.29 +5.0 28
1997-08-08 @ Dinaburg D 0-070.0 1872 1617 64.85% 18.69% 16.45%+1.29 -5.0 36
1997-08-08 Universitate Riga L 1-254.8 1435 1389 52.52% 19.46% 28.03%+0.57 -19.0 20
1997-08-08 @ Baltika Liepja W 2-154.8 1389 1435 28.03% 19.46% 52.52%-0.57 +19.0 12
1997-08-08 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 5-138.7 1597 1312 73.51% 17.39% 9.09%+2.04 +12.5 28
1997-08-08 @ Daugava Riga L 1-538.7 1312 1597 9.09% 17.39% 73.51%-2.04 -12.5 10
1997-08-08 Ventspils W 2-156.3 1254 1493 17.64% 18.82% 63.54%-1.20 +22.8 16
1997-08-08 @ Valmiera L 1-256.3 1493 1254 63.54% 18.82% 17.64%+1.20 -22.8 21
1997-08-16 Universitate Riga L 1-239.9 1141 1408 15.48% 18.58% 65.94%-1.37 -6.6 3
1997-08-16 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-139.9 1408 1141 65.94% 18.58% 15.48%+1.37 +6.6 15
1997-08-21 Daugava Riga W 2-057.1 1414 1609 21.71% 19.15% 59.14%-0.93 +42.5 18
1997-08-21 @ Universitate Riga L 0-257.1 1609 1414 59.14% 19.15% 21.71%+0.93 -42.5 28
1997-08-21 Dinaburg L 0-140.6 1300 1622 11.82% 18.02% 70.16%-1.71 -5.4 10
1997-08-21 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-040.6 1622 1300 70.16% 18.02% 11.82%+1.71 +5.4 31
1997-08-21 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 5-132.1 1470 1134 76.29% 16.71% 7.00%+2.36 +9.6 24
1997-08-21 @ Ventspils L 1-532.1 1134 1470 7.00% 16.71% 76.29%-2.36 -9.6 3
1997-08-30 Skonto L 0-138.1 1125 1867 1.37% 11.80% 86.83%-4.31 -0.6 3
1997-08-30 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-038.1 1867 1125 86.83% 11.80% 1.37%+4.31 +0.6 39
1997-08-30 Baltika Liepja W 1-044.8 1567 1416 63.69% 18.81% 17.51%+1.21 +7.8 31
1997-08-30 @ Daugava Riga L 0-144.8 1416 1567 17.51% 18.81% 63.69%-1.21 -7.9 20
1997-08-30 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-154.9 1276 1295 44.02% 19.63% 36.36%+0.17 -0.7 17
1997-08-30 @ Valmiera D 1-154.9 1295 1276 36.36% 19.63% 44.02%-0.17 +0.6 11
1997-09-02 Universitate Riga D 1-167.5 1628 1457 65.46% 18.63% 15.91%+1.34 -4.6 32
1997-09-02 @ Dinaburg D 1-167.5 1457 1628 15.91% 18.63% 65.46%-1.34 +4.6 19
1997-09-12 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-334.6 1124 1295 24.15% 19.29% 56.56%-0.78 -28.7 3
1997-09-12 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-034.6 1295 1124 56.56% 19.29% 24.15%+0.78 +28.7 14
1997-09-12 Baltika Liepja L 0-161.8 1623 1408 68.95% 18.20% 12.85%+1.61 -26.2 32
1997-09-12 @ Dinaburg W 1-061.8 1408 1623 12.85% 18.20% 68.95%-1.61 +26.2 23
1997-09-12 Universitate Riga W 3-153.1 1276 1461 22.63% 19.21% 58.16%-0.87 +36.2 20
1997-09-12 @ Valmiera L 1-353.1 1461 1276 58.16% 19.21% 22.63%+0.87 -36.2 19
1997-09-15 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-051.6 1425 1095 75.98% 16.79% 7.23%+2.32 -7.3 20
1997-09-15 @ Universitate Riga D 0-051.6 1095 1425 7.23% 16.79% 75.98%-2.32 +7.3 4
1997-09-15 Valmiera D 1-156.9 1434 1312 61.01% 19.02% 19.97%+1.04 -3.7 24
1997-09-15 @ Baltika Liepja D 1-156.9 1312 1434 19.97% 19.02% 61.01%-1.04 +3.7 21
1997-09-15 Ventspils L 0-141.8 1324 1480 25.81% 19.37% 54.82%-0.69 -11.1 14
1997-09-15 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-041.8 1480 1324 54.82% 19.37% 25.81%+0.69 +11.1 27
1997-09-20 Baltika Liepja L 1-238.4 1103 1431 11.49% 17.95% 70.56%-1.75 -5.0 4
1997-09-20 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-138.4 1431 1103 70.56% 17.95% 11.49%+1.75 +5.0 27
1997-09-20 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 4-146.3 1867 1313 84.36% 13.36% 2.28%+3.71 +2.3 42
1997-09-20 @ Skonto L 1-446.3 1313 1867 2.28% 13.36% 84.36%-3.71 -2.3 14
1997-09-20 Daugava Riga L 2-447.7 1316 1575 16.09% 18.65% 65.26%-1.32 -10.6 21
1997-09-20 @ Valmiera W 4-247.7 1575 1316 65.26% 18.65% 16.09%+1.32 +10.6 34
1997-09-20 Universitate Riga D 2-265.7 1491 1418 55.71% 19.33% 24.96%+0.73 -2.0 28
1997-09-20 @ Ventspils D 2-265.7 1418 1491 24.96% 19.33% 55.71%-0.73 +2.0 21
1997-09-25 Skonto L 0-346.0 1420 1869 6.24% 16.39% 77.37%-2.50 -7.8 21
1997-09-25 @ Universitate Riga W 3-046.0 1869 1420 77.37% 16.39% 6.24%+2.50 +7.8 45
1997-09-27 Valmiera W 1-038.8 1597 1305 73.94% 17.30% 8.76%+2.09 +4.0 35
1997-09-27 @ Dinaburg L 0-138.8 1305 1597 8.76% 17.30% 73.94%-2.09 -4.0 21
1997-09-27 Ventspils L 1-253.9 1436 1489 39.03% 19.64% 41.33%-0.05 -14.8 27
1997-09-27 @ Baltika Liepja W 2-153.9 1489 1436 41.33% 19.64% 39.03%+0.05 +14.8 31
1997-09-27 Dizvanagi Rezekne D 1-157.4 1585 1098 82.34% 14.43% 3.22%+3.30 -7.5 35
1997-09-27 @ Daugava Riga D 1-157.4 1098 1585 3.22% 14.43% 82.34%-3.30 +7.5 5
1997-10-04 Dinaburg W 3-158.0 1105 1601 4.93% 15.71% 79.36%-2.79 +48.7 8
1997-10-04 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne L 1-358.0 1601 1105 79.36% 15.71% 4.93%+2.79 -48.7 35
1997-10-04 Universitate Riga L 1-246.8 1311 1412 32.44% 19.57% 47.99%-0.35 -12.7 14
1997-10-04 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-146.8 1412 1311 47.99% 19.57% 32.44%+0.35 +12.7 24
1997-10-04 Baltika Liepja W 7-043.2 1877 1421 81.29% 14.93% 3.79%+3.11 +10.3 48
1997-10-04 @ Skonto L 0-743.2 1421 1877 3.79% 14.93% 81.29%-3.11 -10.3 27
1997-10-04 Daugava Riga L 1-258.7 1504 1578 36.15% 19.62% 44.22%-0.18 -13.9 31
1997-10-04 @ Ventspils W 2-158.7 1578 1504 44.22% 19.62% 36.15%+0.18 +13.9 38
1997-10-07 Valmiera D 0-052.7 1425 1301 61.13% 19.01% 19.86%+1.05 -4.2 25
1997-10-07 @ Universitate Riga D 0-052.7 1301 1425 19.86% 19.01% 61.13%-1.05 +4.2 22
1997-10-12 Ventspils D 1-160.9 1421 1490 36.78% 19.63% 43.59%-0.15 +0.6 26
1997-10-12 @ Universitate Riga D 1-160.9 1490 1421 43.59% 19.63% 36.78%+0.15 -0.6 32
1997-10-14 Valmiera W 5-144.6 1887 1305 85.12% 12.91% 1.97%+3.89 +2.5 51
1997-10-14 @ Skonto L 1-544.6 1305 1887 1.97% 12.91% 85.12%-3.89 -2.5 22
1997-10-14 Dinaburg D 2-273.8 1592 1552 51.66% 19.48% 28.86%+0.52 -1.5 39
1997-10-14 @ Daugava Riga D 2-273.8 1552 1592 28.86% 19.48% 51.66%-0.52 +1.5 36
1997-10-18 Ventspils L 0-158.3 1554 1489 54.67% 19.38% 25.95%+0.68 -20.9 36
1997-10-18 @ Dinaburg W 1-058.3 1489 1554 25.95% 19.38% 54.67%-0.68 +20.9 35
1997-10-18 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 3-141.5 1411 1298 60.03% 19.09% 20.88%+0.98 +15.0 30
1997-10-18 @ Baltika Liepja L 1-341.5 1298 1411 20.88% 19.09% 60.03%-0.98 -15.0 14
1997-10-18 Skonto L 0-350.2 1590 1890 13.20% 18.26% 68.55%-1.58 -16.5 39
1997-10-18 @ Daugava Riga W 3-050.2 1890 1590 68.55% 18.26% 13.20%+1.58 +16.5 54
1997-10-18 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-032.6 1303 1154 63.51% 18.82% 17.67%+1.20 +21.7 25
1997-10-18 @ Valmiera L 0-332.6 1154 1303 17.67% 18.82% 63.51%-1.20 -21.7 8
1997-10-25 Baltika Liepja W 2-150.1 1421 1426 45.90% 19.61% 34.49%+0.25 +13.3 29
1997-10-25 @ Universitate Riga L 1-250.1 1426 1421 34.49% 19.61% 45.90%-0.25 -13.3 30
1997-10-25 Daugava Riga W 2-053.7 1283 1574 13.80% 18.35% 67.85%-1.52 +48.6 17
1997-10-25 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-253.7 1574 1283 67.85% 18.35% 13.80%+1.52 -48.6 39
1997-10-25 Dinaburg W 4-257.1 1906 1533 78.04% 16.17% 5.78%+2.60 +3.8 57
1997-10-25 @ Skonto L 2-457.1 1533 1906 5.78% 16.17% 78.04%-2.60 -3.9 36
1997-10-25 Valmiera W 1-039.0 1510 1324 66.72% 18.49% 14.79%+1.43 +6.7 38
1997-10-25 @ Ventspils L 0-139.0 1324 1510 14.79% 18.49% 66.72%-1.43 -6.7 25
1997-10-29 Skonto D 0-070.2 1517 1910 8.29% 17.16% 74.55%-2.15 +7.1 39
1997-10-29 @ Ventspils D 0-070.2 1910 1517 74.55% 17.16% 8.29%+2.15 -7.1 58
1997-11-01 Ventspils L 0-133.6 1132 1524 8.36% 17.18% 74.46%-2.15 -3.8 8
1997-11-01 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-033.6 1524 1132 74.46% 17.18% 8.36%+2.15 +3.8 42
1997-11-01 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 5-138.9 1529 1331 67.63% 18.38% 13.99%+1.50 +19.0 39
1997-11-01 @ Dinaburg L 1-538.9 1331 1529 13.99% 18.38% 67.63%-1.50 -19.0 17
1997-11-01 Universitate Riga W 3-042.5 1525 1435 57.64% 19.24% 23.12%+0.84 +27.6 42
1997-11-01 @ Daugava Riga L 0-342.5 1435 1525 23.12% 19.24% 57.64%-0.84 -27.6 29
1997-11-01 Skonto L 2-550.6 1318 1903 3.10% 14.31% 82.59%-3.35 -2.7 25
1997-11-01 @ Valmiera W 5-250.6 1903 1318 82.59% 14.31% 3.10%+3.35 +2.7 61
1997-11-08 Dinaburg L 1-546.4 1407 1548 27.57% 19.44% 52.99%-0.59 -35.0 29
1997-11-08 @ Universitate Riga W 5-146.4 1548 1407 52.99% 19.44% 27.57%+0.59 +35.0 42
1997-11-08 Daugava Riga D 1-162.9 1412 1553 27.64% 19.44% 52.91%-0.59 +2.2 31
1997-11-08 @ Baltika Liepja D 1-162.9 1553 1412 52.91% 19.44% 27.64%+0.59 -2.2 43
1997-11-08 Valmiera L 2-354.3 1312 1315 46.19% 19.60% 34.21%+0.27 -16.1 17
1997-11-08 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 3-254.3 1315 1312 34.21% 19.60% 46.19%-0.27 +16.1 28
1997-11-08 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 12-034.4 1906 1129 89.45% 9.85% 0.70%+5.09 +2.8 64
1997-11-08 @ Skonto L 0-1234.4 1129 1906 0.70% 9.85% 89.45%-5.09 -2.8 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1997-10-04 4.93% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1105 3 Dinaburg 1601 1
2 1997-04-12 10.74% @ Valmiera 1143 3 Universitate Riga 1484 0
3 1997-09-12 12.85% Baltika Liepja 1408 1 @ Dinaburg 1623 0
4 1997-10-25 13.80% @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1283 2 Daugava Riga 1574 0
5 1997-06-26 17.42% @ Valmiera 1215 3 Baltika Liepja 1458 1
6 1997-08-08 17.64% @ Valmiera 1254 2 Ventspils 1493 1
7 1997-06-14 19.93% @ Universitate Riga 1364 2 Dinaburg 1577 1
8 1997-05-11 20.25% @ Ventspils 1415 1 Daugava Riga 1625 0
9 1997-08-21 21.71% @ Universitate Riga 1414 2 Daugava Riga 1609 0
10 1997-09-12 22.63% @ Valmiera 1276 3 Universitate Riga 1461 1
11 1997-10-18 25.95% Ventspils 1489 1 @ Dinaburg 1554 0
12 1997-08-08 28.03% Universitate Riga 1389 2 @ Baltika Liepja 1435 1
13 1997-04-18 29.29% Ventspils 1412 1 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1448 0
14 1997-11-08 34.21% Valmiera 1315 3 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1312 2
15 1997-05-21 37.44% @ Valmiera 1195 3 Dizvanagi Rezekne 1260 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-04-12 74.35 @ Valmiera 3 1143 10.74% Universitate Riga 0 1484 71.47% 17.80%
2 1997-04-12 54.97 Lokomotve Daugavpils 6 1393 43.21% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1326 37.15% 19.63%
3 1997-10-04 48.73 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 3 1105 4.93% Dinaburg 1 1601 79.36% 15.71%
4 1997-10-25 48.64 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 2 1283 13.80% Daugava Riga 0 1574 67.85% 18.35%
5 1997-05-21 46.36 @ Valmiera 3 1195 37.44% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1260 42.93% 19.63%
6 1997-05-03 42.90 @ Baltika Liepja 3 1421 41.35% Ventspils 0 1458 39.01% 19.64%
7 1997-08-21 42.52 @ Universitate Riga 2 1414 21.71% Daugava Riga 0 1609 59.14% 19.15%
8 1997-06-26 41.32 @ Ventspils 4 1447 53.52% Lokomotve Daugavpils 0 1393 27.06% 19.42%
9 1997-06-26 39.63 @ Valmiera 3 1215 17.42% Baltika Liepja 1 1458 63.79% 18.80%
10 1997-09-12 36.24 @ Valmiera 3 1276 22.63% Universitate Riga 1 1461 58.16% 19.21%
11 1997-11-08 34.99 Dinaburg 5 1548 52.99% @ Universitate Riga 1 1407 27.57% 19.44%
12 1997-08-03 31.03 @ Skonto 6 1840 68.79% Daugava Riga 0 1628 12.98% 18.22%
13 1997-09-12 28.67 Lokomotve Daugavpils 3 1295 56.56% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1124 24.15% 19.29%
14 1997-06-21 27.83 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 4 1365 63.87% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1212 17.34% 18.79%
15 1997-11-01 27.59 @ Daugava Riga 3 1525 57.64% Universitate Riga 0 1435 23.12% 19.24%
16 1997-04-23 26.42 @ Ventspils 2 1431 46.37% Universitate Riga 0 1433 34.03% 19.60%
17 1997-09-12 26.21 Baltika Liepja 1 1408 12.85% @ Dinaburg 0 1623 68.95% 18.20%
18 1997-05-25 24.80 @ Ventspils 4 1420 66.12% Valmiera 0 1241 15.32% 18.56%
19 1997-06-21 24.09 Dinaburg 3 1555 44.15% @ Baltika Liepja 1 1482 36.23% 19.63%
20 1997-08-03 23.98 Baltika Liepja 3 1411 44.34% @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1336 36.03% 19.62%
21 1997-05-21 23.50 @ Baltika Liepja 2 1458 50.91% Lokomotve Daugavpils 0 1424 29.59% 19.50%
22 1997-05-11 23.12 @ Ventspils 1 1415 20.25% Daugava Riga 0 1625 60.71% 19.05%
23 1997-08-08 22.80 @ Valmiera 2 1254 17.64% Ventspils 1 1493 63.54% 18.82%
24 1997-04-18 22.61 @ Universitate Riga 3 1410 62.59% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1271 18.51% 18.90%
25 1997-06-14 21.92 @ Universitate Riga 2 1364 19.93% Dinaburg 1 1577 61.05% 19.02%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-10-14 73.8 @ Daugava Riga 2 1592 51.66% Dinaburg 2 1552 28.86% 19.48%
2 1997-06-21 73.0 @ Skonto 1 1833 78.85% Ventspils 1 1440 5.25% 15.90%
3 1997-10-29 70.2 @ Ventspils 0 1517 8.29% Skonto 0 1910 74.55% 17.16%
4 1997-08-08 70.0 @ Dinaburg 0 1617 16.45% Skonto 0 1872 64.85% 18.69%
5 1997-05-25 69.8 @ Skonto 0 1828 72.71% Dinaburg 0 1558 9.73% 17.56%
6 1997-08-03 68.1 @ Ventspils 1 1491 29.12% Dinaburg 1 1619 51.39% 19.49%
7 1997-09-02 67.5 @ Dinaburg 1 1628 65.46% Universitate Riga 1 1457 15.91% 18.63%
8 1997-09-20 65.7 @ Ventspils 2 1491 55.71% Universitate Riga 2 1418 24.96% 19.33%
9 1997-11-08 62.9 @ Baltika Liepja 1 1412 27.64% Daugava Riga 1 1553 52.91% 19.44%
10 1997-09-12 61.8 Baltika Liepja 1 1408 12.85% @ Dinaburg 0 1623 68.95% 18.20%
11 1997-10-12 60.9 @ Universitate Riga 1 1421 36.78% Ventspils 1 1490 43.59% 19.63%
12 1997-06-14 60.8 @ Universitate Riga 2 1364 19.93% Dinaburg 1 1577 61.05% 19.02%
13 1997-05-11 59.9 @ Ventspils 1 1415 20.25% Daugava Riga 0 1625 60.71% 19.05%
14 1997-04-12 59.1 @ Dinaburg 0 1549 62.25% Baltika Liepja 0 1413 18.82% 18.93%
15 1997-06-26 58.7 @ Dinaburg 1 1579 40.59% Daugava Riga 0 1622 39.77% 19.64%
16 1997-10-04 58.7 Daugava Riga 2 1578 44.22% @ Ventspils 1 1504 36.15% 19.62%
17 1997-10-18 58.3 Ventspils 1 1489 25.95% @ Dinaburg 0 1554 54.67% 19.38%
18 1997-10-04 58.0 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 3 1105 4.93% Dinaburg 1 1601 79.36% 15.71%
19 1997-09-27 57.4 @ Daugava Riga 1 1585 82.34% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1098 3.22% 14.43%
20 1997-05-03 57.3 @ Daugava Riga 0 1633 78.36% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1252 5.57% 16.07%
21 1997-08-21 57.1 @ Universitate Riga 2 1414 21.71% Daugava Riga 0 1609 59.14% 19.15%
22 1997-10-25 57.1 @ Skonto 4 1906 78.04% Dinaburg 2 1533 5.78% 16.17%
23 1997-09-15 56.9 @ Baltika Liepja 1 1434 61.01% Valmiera 1 1312 19.97% 19.02%
24 1997-08-08 56.3 @ Valmiera 2 1254 17.64% Ventspils 1 1493 63.54% 18.82%
25 1997-06-21 55.6 Dinaburg 3 1555 44.15% @ Baltika Liepja 1 1482 36.23% 19.63%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-07-16 30.3 Daugava Riga 4 1609 77.00% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1167 6.50% 16.50%
2 1997-07-05 31.8 Dinaburg 3 1595 75.49% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1184 7.59% 16.92%
3 1997-05-25 31.9 @ Ventspils 4 1420 66.12% Valmiera 0 1241 15.32% 18.56%
4 1997-06-21 31.9 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 4 1365 63.87% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1212 17.34% 18.79%
5 1997-08-21 32.1 @ Ventspils 5 1470 76.29% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1134 7.00% 16.71%
6 1997-05-15 32.3 @ Dinaburg 2 1533 76.09% Valmiera 0 1201 7.15% 16.76%
7 1997-10-18 32.6 @ Valmiera 3 1303 63.51% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1154 17.67% 18.82%
8 1997-04-23 33.1 Daugava Riga 3 1623 75.59% @ Valmiera 0 1211 7.51% 16.90%
9 1997-07-26 33.2 @ Dinaburg 1 1618 81.45% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1157 3.70% 14.85%
10 1997-11-01 33.6 Ventspils 1 1524 74.46% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1132 8.36% 17.18%
11 1997-04-18 34.2 @ Universitate Riga 3 1410 62.59% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1271 18.51% 18.90%
12 1997-11-08 34.4 @ Skonto 12 1906 89.45% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1129 0.70% 9.85%
13 1997-09-12 34.6 Lokomotve Daugavpils 3 1295 56.56% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1124 24.15% 19.29%
14 1997-07-16 34.7 Dinaburg 3 1605 72.16% @ Valmiera 0 1252 10.17% 17.67%
15 1997-04-18 35.3 @ Baltika Liepja 1 1418 67.91% Valmiera 0 1217 13.75% 18.34%
16 1997-06-14 35.6 @ Skonto 9 1827 85.82% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1218 1.71% 12.47%
17 1997-06-01 36.2 Skonto 5 1822 83.20% @ Valmiera 0 1217 2.80% 14.00%
18 1997-07-13 36.6 @ Daugava Riga 1 1606 76.99% Valmiera 0 1255 6.50% 16.50%
19 1997-08-30 38.1 Skonto 1 1867 86.83% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1125 1.37% 11.80%
20 1997-09-20 38.4 Baltika Liepja 2 1431 70.56% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1103 11.49% 17.95%
21 1997-08-08 38.7 @ Daugava Riga 5 1597 73.51% Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1312 9.09% 17.39%
22 1997-06-26 38.8 @ Ventspils 4 1447 53.52% Lokomotve Daugavpils 0 1393 27.06% 19.42%
23 1997-09-27 38.8 @ Dinaburg 1 1597 73.94% Valmiera 0 1305 8.76% 17.30%
24 1997-11-01 38.9 @ Dinaburg 5 1529 67.63% Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1331 13.99% 18.38%
25 1997-10-25 39.0 @ Ventspils 1 1510 66.72% Valmiera 0 1324 14.79% 18.49%