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1996 Virsliga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

47 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Daugava Riga

9.71 points above expected

43 points · 33.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Jurnieks Riga

8.49 points below expected

9 points · 17.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 18 15 2 1 47 74 9 +65 44.75 +2.25
2 Daugava Riga 18 13 4 1 43 41 11 +30 33.29 +9.71
3 Dinaburg 18 9 5 4 32 30 19 +11 34.62 -2.62
4 Baltika Liepja 18 8 4 6 28 23 21 +2 20.56 +7.44
5 Universitate Riga 18 7 5 6 26 24 29 -5 27.01 -1.01
6 Starts Brocni 18 5 5 8 20 20 35 -15 20.98 -0.98
7 Vairogs Rezekne 18 5 3 10 18 19 32 -13 21.37 -3.37
8 Lokomotve Daugavpils 18 4 5 9 17 18 31 -13 19.65 -2.65
9 Jurnieks Riga 18 1 6 11 9 11 44 -33 17.49 -8.49
10 Skonto Metals Rinar 18 2 3 13 9 9 38 -29 11.20 -2.20
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 10 8 2 0 26 24 3 +21 71.48 -45.48
2 Lokomotve Daugavpils 12 6 4 2 22 20 14 +6 28.57 -6.57
3 Daugava Riga 10 5 3 2 18 20 7 +13 60.27 -42.27
4 Skonto Metals Rinar 12 5 3 4 18 16 15 +1 14.34 +3.66
5 Dinaburg 10 4 3 3 15 23 12 +11 47.16 -32.16
6 Vairogs Rezekne 12 4 3 5 15 18 22 -4 28.16 -13.16
7 Universitate Riga 10 4 1 5 13 13 16 -3 36.55 -23.55
8 Jurnieks Riga 12 3 2 7 11 14 17 -3 15.36 -4.36
9 Baltika Liepja 10 3 1 6 10 9 23 -14 37.27 -27.27
10 Starts Brocni 10 1 0 9 3 6 34 -28 27.09 -24.09

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Daugava Riga 43 33.29 +9.71
2 Baltika Liepja 28 20.56 +7.44
3 Skonto 47 44.75 +2.25
4 Starts Brocni 20 20.98 -0.98
5 Universitate Riga 26 27.01 -1.01

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jurnieks Riga 9 17.49 -8.49
2 Vairogs Rezekne 18 21.37 -3.37
3 Lokomotve Daugavpils 17 19.65 -2.65
4 Dinaburg 32 34.62 -2.62
5 Skonto Metals Rinar 9 11.20 -2.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Baltika Liepja 2 Jul 22 – Jul 27 1 in 120
2 Starts Brocni 2 May 25 – Jun 1 1 in 49
3 Vairogs Rezekne 3 Apr 20 – May 4 1 in 21
4 Universitate Riga 4 May 11 – Jun 1 1 in 13
5 Lokomotve Daugavpils 2 Jul 27 – Aug 4 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotve Daugavpils 7 May 25 – Jun 29 1 in 130
2 Universitate Riga 4 Jul 13 – Aug 4 1 in 50
3 Skonto 1 May 25 – May 25 1 in 29
4 Vairogs Rezekne 4 May 18 – Jun 5 1 in 11
5 Skonto Metals Rinar 5 Apr 20 – May 18 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Universitate Riga 11 May 4 – Jul 6 1 in 144
2 Baltika Liepja 6 Jun 5 – Jul 6 1 in 43
3 Daugava Riga 14 May 18 – Aug 10 1 in 26
4 Lokomotve Daugavpils 6 Jul 6 – Aug 10 1 in 22
5 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jurnieks Riga 16 May 4 – Aug 10 1 in 69
2 Vairogs Rezekne 7 Jun 25 – Aug 10 1 in 25
3 Universitate Riga 5 Jul 13 – Aug 10 1 in 13
4 Starts Brocni 6 Jun 5 – Jul 6 1 in 12
5 Lokomotve Daugavpils 7 May 25 – Jun 29 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1965 73 +15 13 12.3 +0.7
Daugava Riga 1729 61 -3 7 9.4 -2.4
Dinaburg 1630 47 +2 8 7.9 +0.1
Lokomotve Daugavpils 1397 39 -27 8 9.5 -1.5
Universitate Riga 1540 39 +29 7 5.2 +1.8
Baltika Liepja 1430 38 -23 4 4.4 -0.4
Vairogs Rezekne 1290 33 -98 1 7.6 -6.6
Skonto Metals Rinar 1300 27 +71 11 5.4 +5.6
Starts Brocni 1309 23 -21 3 2.9 +0.1
Jurnieks Riga 1264 20 +54 7 5.3 +1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BL DR DIN JR LD SKO SMR SB UR VR
Baltika Liepja —
0-1-1
1.25
0-1-1
1.31
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
0.57
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.53
Daugava Riga
1-1-0
4.32
 —
1-1-0
2.56
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.29
0-1-1
1.13
2-0-0
5.00
1-1-0
4.27
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
4.14
Dinaburg
1-1-0
4.26
0-1-1
2.97
 —
1-1-0
4.59
2-0-0
4.26
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
4.97
2-0-0
4.39
0-2-0
3.77
2-0-0
4.22
Jurnieks Riga
0-1-1
2.61
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
1.01
 —
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
0.38
1-1-0
3.57
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
1.54
0-0-2
2.59
Lokomotve Daugavpils
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.28
0-0-2
1.31
1-1-0
3.13
 —
0-0-2
0.58
1-0-1
4.01
0-2-0
2.88
0-1-1
1.90
1-1-0
2.37
Skonto
2-0-0
5.12
1-1-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.34
2-0-0
5.37
2-0-0
5.11
 —
2-0-0
5.36
1-0-1
5.26
1-1-0
4.93
2-0-0
5.04
Skonto Metals Rinar
0-0-2
1.44
0-0-2
0.66
1-0-1
0.69
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
1.55
0-0-2
0.39
 —
0-1-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.20
0-1-1
1.48
Starts Brocni
0-0-2
3.00
0-1-1
1.31
0-0-2
1.20
1-1-0
3.30
0-2-0
2.65
1-0-1
0.46
1-1-0
3.83
 —
1-0-1
1.79
1-0-1
2.66
Universitate Riga
1-0-1
3.25
0-0-2
1.89
0-2-0
1.78
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
3.64
0-1-1
0.72
2-0-0
4.38
1-0-1
3.76
 —
1-0-1
3.40
Vairogs Rezekne
0-1-1
3.00
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
1.35
2-0-0
2.94
0-1-1
3.16
0-0-2
0.63
1-1-0
4.08
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +6.2
Allowed 0.95 -10.9
Differential 0.93 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%8.33%5.90%2.78%3.47%4.17%30.90%
18.33%10.42%7.64%1.74%1.39%1.04%30.56%
25.90%7.64%4.17%1.74%—0.35%19.79%
32.78%1.74%1.74%0.69%—0.35%7.29%
43.47%1.39%——0.69%—5.56%
5+4.17%1.04%0.35%0.35%——5.90%
Total30.90%30.56%19.79%7.29%5.56%5.90%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.61
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 11 11 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%35.71%
114.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
210.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
3—7.14%————7.14%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total32.14%25.00%14.29%17.86%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.57 -0.43
SD 1.11 1.55 2.28
CV 0.97 0.99 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%————17.86%
110.71%10.71%————21.43%
27.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
310.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total46.43%46.43%3.57%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 0.64 +1.54
SD 1.74 0.73 1.93
CV 0.80 1.14 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%—7.14%—3.57%3.57%25.00%
17.14%14.29%7.14%3.57%——32.14%
210.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
37.14%—————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%—3.57%———10.71%
Total50.00%17.86%21.43%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.11 +0.79
SD 2.08 1.59 2.96
CV 1.10 1.44 —
Max 8 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%16.67%3.33%6.67%6.67%50.00%
16.67%10.00%13.33%—3.33%—33.33%
2—3.33%3.33%3.33%——10.00%
3———————
4————3.33%—3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total16.67%23.33%33.33%6.67%13.33%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.03 -1.20
SD 1.21 1.65 2.09
CV 1.45 0.81 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%6.67%——3.33%20.00%
110.00%23.33%10.00%——3.33%46.67%
23.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
3——6.67%———6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total13.33%46.67%30.00%3.33%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.50 -0.23
SD 0.98 1.20 1.61
CV 0.77 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—————3.57%
114.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
27.14%—————7.14%
33.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
414.29%3.57%————17.86%
5+28.57%3.57%————32.14%
Total71.43%17.86%7.14%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 0.43 +3.07
SD 2.40 0.79 2.60
CV 0.68 1.84 —
Max 11 3 +10
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%6.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%43.33%
16.67%6.67%13.33%—6.67%—33.33%
26.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%26.67%30.00%6.67%13.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.77 -0.93
SD 0.87 1.41 1.82
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%10.71%7.14%46.43%
17.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%—25.00%
2—10.71%7.14%——3.57%21.43%
3—————3.57%3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%25.00%25.00%7.14%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 2.46 -1.54
SD 1.09 2.12 2.38
CV 1.17 0.86 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%—3.57%—3.57%32.14%
13.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%25.00%
210.71%17.86%3.57%———32.14%
3———————
47.14%———3.57%—10.71%
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%10.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.61 -0.29
SD 1.25 2.30 2.75
CV 0.95 1.43 —
Max 4 11 +4
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%6.67%—3.33%6.67%33.33%
13.33%13.33%10.00%3.33%—3.33%33.33%
23.33%10.00%—6.67%——20.00%
36.67%—3.33%———10.00%
4———————
5+———3.33%——3.33%
Total20.00%33.33%20.00%13.33%3.33%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.80 -0.57
SD 1.33 1.61 2.19
CV 1.08 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1965 47 44.75 +2.25 69.0% 32 35 42 45 48 50 52
Daugava Riga 1729 43 33.29 +9.71 98.0% 22 26 30 33 36 40 50
Dinaburg 1630 32 34.62 -2.62 34.0% 20 26 31 34 38 41 46
Universitate Riga 1540 26 27.01 -1.01 46.0% 12 18 25 27 30 34 40
Baltika Liepja 1430 28 20.56 +7.44 94.0% 9 11 17 20 24 29 31
Lokomotve Daugavpils 1397 17 19.65 -2.65 34.0% 7 12 16 20 23 29 34
Starts Brocni 1309 20 20.98 -0.98 43.0% 10 14 17 21 24 28 35
Skonto Metals Rinar 1300 9 11.20 -2.20 37.0% 1 5 8 11 14 19 22
Vairogs Rezekne 1290 18 21.37 -3.37 25.0% 8 13 18 21 25 29 40
Jurnieks Riga 1264 9 17.49 -8.49 5.0% 7 9 13 17 21 26 29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.78%
Slight Edge
40.28%22.22%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.65 Elo pts.
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
89%
Skonto, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.460.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.93 * Some Luck: 3.93 to 5.89 * Lucky: 5.89 to 7.86 * Wild Swing: 7.86 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.88 * Close: 0.88 to 1.32 * Off: 1.32 to 1.77 * Way Off: 1.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.08 points
Some Luck
04.9112
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.102.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Daugava Riga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Jurnieks Riga
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 217.88
2.29
Coin-Flip Parity
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
78%
Even
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Occasional
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Some Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.68
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1290.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Skonto89.00%9.00%2.00%———————
Daugava Riga5.00%30.00%43.00%16.00%4.00%2.00%————
Dinaburg6.00%52.00%26.00%13.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%———
Baltika Liepja——3.00%11.00%17.00%21.00%17.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%
Universitate Riga—7.00%17.00%33.00%21.00%8.00%6.00%3.00%5.00%—
Starts Brocni—1.00%5.00%10.00%13.00%17.00%15.00%23.00%13.00%3.00%
Vairogs Rezekne—1.00%2.00%10.00%20.00%23.00%18.00%15.00%9.00%2.00%
Lokomotve Daugavpils——2.00%4.00%14.00%16.00%22.00%19.00%17.00%6.00%
Jurnieks Riga———3.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%22.00%20.00%
Skonto Metals Rinar—————2.00%6.00%5.00%24.00%63.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Daugava Riga 100% — —
Dinaburg 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Universitate Riga 98.00% 2.00% —
Baltika Liepja 90.00% 8.00% 2.00%
Vairogs Rezekne 91.00% 7.00% 2.00%
Lokomotve Daugavpils 81.00% 15.00% 4.00%
Starts Brocni 88.00% 8.00% 4.00%
Jurnieks Riga 47.00% 30.00% 23.00%
Skonto Metals Rinar 5.00% 30.00% 65.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Baltika Liepja 100% — —
Daugava Riga 100% — —
Dinaburg 100% — —
Lokomotve Daugavpils 99.00% 1.00% —
Skonto 100% — —
Starts Brocni 100% — —
Universitate Riga 100% — —
Vairogs Rezekne 96.00% 4.00% —
Jurnieks Riga 3.00% 51.00% 46.00%
Skonto Metals Rinar 2.00% 44.00% 54.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1996-04-20 Jurnieks Riga W 1-048.8 1384 1441 31.82% 23.47% 44.72%-0.31 +15.3 3
1996-04-20 @ Vairogs Rezekne L 0-148.8 1441 1384 44.72% 23.47% 31.82%+0.31 -15.3 0
1996-04-20 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-046.3 1623 1441 61.34% 21.96% 16.70%+1.26 +12.7 3
1996-04-20 @ Dinaburg L 0-246.3 1441 1623 16.70% 21.96% 61.34%-1.26 -12.7 0
1996-04-20 Starts Brocni W 1-049.1 1338 1434 26.96% 23.23% 49.82%-0.56 +16.8 3
1996-04-20 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-149.1 1434 1338 49.82% 23.23% 26.96%+0.56 -16.8 0
1996-04-20 Skonto L 0-539.0 1282 1844 2.94% 13.67% 83.39%-3.63 -4.8 0
1996-04-20 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 5-039.0 1844 1282 83.39% 13.67% 2.94%+3.63 +4.8 3
1996-04-20 Universitate Riga W 2-156.1 1571 1497 49.60% 23.24% 27.16%+0.55 +9.7 3
1996-04-20 @ Daugava Riga L 1-256.1 1497 1571 27.16% 23.24% 49.60%-0.55 -9.7 0
1996-04-27 Vairogs Rezekne L 0-349.3 1487 1400 51.16% 23.14% 25.70%+0.63 -47.1 0
1996-04-27 @ Universitate Riga W 3-049.3 1400 1487 25.70% 23.14% 51.16%-0.63 +47.1 6
1996-04-27 Skonto Metals Rinar W 1-038.6 1425 1277 58.02% 22.46% 19.53%+1.04 +7.8 3
1996-04-27 @ Jurnieks Riga L 0-138.6 1277 1425 19.53% 22.46% 58.02%-1.04 -7.8 0
1996-04-27 Skonto L 0-146.4 1355 1849 4.12% 15.39% 80.50%-3.18 -1.6 3
1996-04-27 @ Baltika Liepja W 1-046.4 1849 1355 80.50% 15.39% 4.12%+3.18 +1.6 6
1996-04-27 Starts Brocni D 2-261.9 1428 1417 41.14% 23.54% 35.32%+0.13 -0.3 1
1996-04-27 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils D 2-261.9 1417 1428 35.32% 23.54% 41.14%-0.13 +0.3 1
1996-04-27 Dinaburg D 2-273.9 1581 1635 32.04% 23.47% 44.48%-0.29 +0.7 4
1996-04-27 @ Daugava Riga D 2-273.9 1635 1581 44.48% 23.47% 32.04%+0.29 -0.7 4
1996-05-04 Universitate Riga D 0-061.9 1635 1440 62.53% 21.74% 15.73%+1.34 -4.1 5
1996-05-04 @ Dinaburg D 0-061.9 1440 1635 15.73% 21.74% 62.53%-1.34 +4.1 1
1996-05-04 Jurnieks Riga W 4-044.7 1353 1433 28.87% 23.34% 47.79%-0.46 +58.0 6
1996-05-04 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-444.7 1433 1353 47.79% 23.34% 28.87%+0.46 -58.0 3
1996-05-04 Skonto L 0-544.3 1428 1851 5.81% 17.18% 77.02%-2.71 -10.1 1
1996-05-04 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 5-044.3 1851 1428 77.02% 17.18% 5.81%+2.71 +10.1 9
1996-05-04 Vairogs Rezekne L 0-335.4 1269 1447 18.64% 22.31% 59.04%-1.10 -20.4 0
1996-05-04 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 3-035.4 1447 1269 59.04% 22.31% 18.64%+1.10 +20.4 9
1996-05-04 Daugava Riga D 0-058.9 1417 1581 19.83% 22.50% 57.67%-1.01 +3.3 2
1996-05-04 @ Starts Brocni D 0-058.9 1581 1417 57.67% 22.50% 19.83%+1.01 -3.3 5
1996-05-11 Baltika Liepja D 0-054.5 1467 1412 47.21% 23.37% 29.42%+0.43 -1.5 10
1996-05-11 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 0-054.5 1412 1467 29.42% 23.37% 47.21%-0.43 +1.5 7
1996-05-11 Starts Brocni W 5-042.3 1630 1421 63.87% 21.48% 14.65%+1.44 +26.3 8
1996-05-11 @ Dinaburg L 0-542.3 1421 1630 14.65% 21.48% 63.87%-1.44 -26.3 2
1996-05-11 Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-033.1 1444 1249 62.55% 21.74% 15.71%+1.34 +22.8 4
1996-05-11 @ Universitate Riga L 0-433.1 1249 1444 15.71% 21.74% 62.55%-1.34 -22.8 0
1996-05-11 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-156.0 1375 1417 33.64% 23.51% 42.84%-0.22 +0.7 4
1996-05-11 @ Jurnieks Riga D 1-156.0 1417 1375 42.84% 23.51% 33.64%+0.22 -0.7 2
1996-05-11 Skonto L 0-152.9 1578 1861 11.38% 20.45% 68.17%-1.79 -4.7 5
1996-05-11 @ Daugava Riga W 1-052.9 1861 1578 68.17% 20.45% 11.38%+1.79 +4.7 12
1996-05-18 Daugava Riga L 0-340.8 1376 1574 16.97% 22.01% 61.03%-1.23 -18.7 4
1996-05-18 @ Jurnieks Riga W 3-040.8 1574 1376 61.03% 22.01% 16.97%+1.23 +18.7 8
1996-05-18 Skonto Metals Rinar W 1-036.8 1413 1226 61.81% 21.87% 16.32%+1.29 +6.6 10
1996-05-18 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-136.8 1226 1413 16.32% 21.87% 61.81%-1.29 -6.6 0
1996-05-18 Vairogs Rezekne W 1-050.1 1417 1466 32.76% 23.49% 43.75%-0.26 +15.1 5
1996-05-18 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-150.1 1466 1417 43.75% 23.49% 32.76%+0.26 -15.1 10
1996-05-18 Dinaburg W 7-050.0 1865 1657 63.76% 21.50% 14.74%+1.43 +36.3 15
1996-05-18 @ Skonto L 0-750.0 1657 1865 14.74% 21.50% 63.76%-1.43 -36.3 8
1996-05-18 Universitate Riga L 0-243.5 1394 1467 29.74% 23.38% 46.87%-0.41 -21.0 2
1996-05-18 @ Starts Brocni W 2-043.5 1467 1394 46.87% 23.38% 29.74%+0.41 +21.0 7
1996-05-25 Daugava Riga L 0-247.4 1451 1592 21.99% 22.78% 55.23%-0.86 -16.3 10
1996-05-25 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 2-047.4 1592 1451 55.23% 22.78% 21.99%+0.86 +16.3 11
1996-05-25 Jurnieks Riga W 2-041.1 1620 1357 68.19% 20.44% 11.37%+1.79 +8.8 11
1996-05-25 @ Dinaburg L 0-241.1 1357 1620 11.37% 20.44% 68.19%-1.79 -8.8 4
1996-05-25 Universitate Riga L 1-251.3 1420 1488 30.29% 23.41% 46.30%-0.38 -10.6 10
1996-05-25 @ Baltika Liepja W 2-151.3 1488 1420 46.30% 23.41% 30.29%+0.38 +10.6 10
1996-05-25 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-050.7 1219 1432 15.85% 21.77% 62.37%-1.33 +20.6 3
1996-05-25 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-150.7 1432 1219 62.37% 21.77% 15.85%+1.33 -20.6 5
1996-05-25 Skonto W 2-175.2 1373 1902 3.48% 14.52% 82.01%-3.40 +24.3 5
1996-05-25 @ Starts Brocni L 1-275.2 1902 1373 82.01% 14.52% 3.48%+3.40 -24.3 15
1996-06-01 Jurnieks Riga W 2-039.7 1498 1348 58.21% 22.43% 19.36%+1.05 +14.5 13
1996-06-01 @ Universitate Riga L 0-239.7 1348 1498 19.36% 22.43% 58.21%-1.05 -14.5 4
1996-06-01 Dinaburg L 0-343.5 1409 1629 15.28% 21.64% 63.08%-1.38 -17.0 10
1996-06-01 @ Baltika Liepja W 3-043.5 1629 1409 63.08% 21.64% 15.28%+1.38 +17.0 14
1996-06-01 Daugava Riga L 1-546.3 1411 1609 17.01% 22.02% 60.97%-1.23 -20.5 5
1996-06-01 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 5-146.3 1609 1411 60.97% 22.02% 17.01%+1.23 +20.5 14
1996-06-01 Vairogs Rezekne W 6-044.0 1877 1434 79.00% 16.19% 4.80%+2.97 +9.8 18
1996-06-01 @ Skonto L 0-644.0 1434 1877 4.80% 16.19% 79.00%-2.97 -9.8 10
1996-06-01 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-142.1 1398 1240 58.96% 22.33% 18.71%+1.10 +7.1 8
1996-06-01 @ Starts Brocni L 1-242.1 1240 1398 18.71% 22.33% 58.96%-1.10 -7.0 3
1996-06-05 Dinaburg L 0-147.7 1425 1646 15.20% 21.62% 63.19%-1.39 -6.2 10
1996-06-05 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 1-047.7 1646 1425 63.19% 21.62% 15.20%+1.39 +6.2 17
1996-06-05 Skonto D 0-069.3 1513 1887 7.34% 18.37% 74.29%-2.39 +6.1 14
1996-06-05 @ Universitate Riga D 0-069.3 1887 1513 74.29% 18.37% 7.34%+2.39 -6.1 19
1996-06-05 Starts Brocni D 0-051.2 1334 1405 29.92% 23.39% 46.69%-0.40 +1.4 5
1996-06-05 @ Jurnieks Riga D 0-051.2 1405 1334 46.69% 23.39% 29.92%+0.40 -1.4 9
1996-06-05 Baltika Liepja L 1-250.7 1391 1392 39.43% 23.56% 37.01%+0.06 -13.1 5
1996-06-05 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-150.7 1392 1391 37.01% 23.56% 39.43%-0.06 +13.1 13
1996-06-05 Skonto Metals Rinar W 3-033.2 1629 1233 76.60% 17.37% 6.03%+2.66 +6.5 17
1996-06-05 @ Daugava Riga L 0-333.2 1233 1629 6.03% 17.37% 76.60%-2.66 -6.5 3
1996-06-08 Skonto Metals Rinar L 1-262.7 1652 1226 78.16% 16.62% 5.22%+2.86 -23.6 17
1996-06-08 @ Dinaburg W 2-162.7 1226 1652 5.22% 16.62% 78.16%-2.86 +23.6 6
1996-06-08 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-147.6 1519 1378 57.29% 22.55% 20.17%+0.99 +7.5 17
1996-06-08 @ Universitate Riga L 1-247.6 1378 1519 20.17% 22.55% 57.29%-0.99 -7.5 5
1996-06-08 Jurnieks Riga W 5-041.2 1881 1335 83.51% 13.60% 2.89%+3.64 +4.7 22
1996-06-08 @ Skonto L 0-541.2 1335 1881 2.89% 13.60% 83.51%-3.64 -4.7 5
1996-06-08 Vairogs Rezekne L 3-652.3 1403 1419 37.41% 23.56% 39.03%-0.04 -24.7 9
1996-06-08 @ Starts Brocni W 6-352.3 1419 1403 39.03% 23.56% 37.41%+0.04 +24.7 13
1996-06-08 Baltika Liepja D 1-164.7 1636 1405 65.61% 21.10% 13.29%+1.58 -4.2 18
1996-06-08 @ Daugava Riga D 1-164.7 1405 1636 13.29% 21.10% 65.61%-1.58 +4.2 14
1996-06-15 Skonto L 0-544.6 1443 1886 5.29% 16.69% 78.03%-2.84 -9.1 13
1996-06-15 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 5-044.6 1886 1443 78.03% 16.69% 5.29%+2.84 +9.1 25
1996-06-15 Baltika Liepja D 1-164.6 1629 1409 64.69% 21.31% 14.00%+1.50 -4.0 18
1996-06-15 @ Dinaburg D 1-164.6 1409 1629 14.00% 21.31% 64.69%-1.50 +4.0 15
1996-06-15 Universitate Riga D 4-468.6 1330 1526 17.10% 22.04% 60.86%-1.22 +1.9 6
1996-06-15 @ Jurnieks Riga D 4-468.6 1526 1330 60.86% 22.04% 17.10%+1.22 -1.9 18
1996-06-15 Starts Brocni D 2-258.5 1250 1379 23.31% 22.93% 53.77%-0.78 +1.7 7
1996-06-15 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 2-258.5 1379 1250 53.77% 22.93% 23.31%+0.78 -1.7 10
1996-06-15 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-043.7 1631 1370 68.02% 20.49% 11.49%+1.78 +4.7 21
1996-06-15 @ Daugava Riga L 0-143.7 1370 1631 11.49% 20.49% 68.02%-1.78 -4.7 5
1996-06-23 Vairogs Rezekne L 0-240.2 1332 1434 26.21% 23.18% 50.61%-0.61 -18.9 6
1996-06-23 @ Jurnieks Riga W 2-040.2 1434 1332 50.61% 23.18% 26.21%+0.61 +18.9 16
1996-06-23 Dinaburg L 0-143.8 1365 1625 12.71% 20.92% 66.37%-1.64 -5.2 5
1996-06-23 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 1-043.8 1625 1365 66.37% 20.92% 12.71%+1.64 +5.2 21
1996-06-23 Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-144.3 1895 1252 86.93% 11.29% 1.78%+4.28 +1.4 28
1996-06-23 @ Skonto L 1-444.3 1252 1895 1.78% 11.29% 86.93%-4.28 -1.4 7
1996-06-23 Baltika Liepja L 0-243.2 1377 1413 34.47% 23.53% 42.00%-0.18 -23.6 10
1996-06-23 @ Starts Brocni W 2-043.2 1413 1377 42.00% 23.53% 34.47%+0.18 +23.6 18
1996-06-25 Universitate Riga L 1-253.6 1453 1525 29.84% 23.39% 46.77%-0.41 -10.5 16
1996-06-25 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 2-153.6 1525 1453 46.77% 23.39% 29.84%+0.41 +10.5 21
1996-06-25 Daugava Riga L 1-264.8 1630 1636 38.72% 23.56% 37.72%+0.02 -12.9 21
1996-06-25 @ Dinaburg W 2-164.8 1636 1630 37.72% 23.56% 38.72%-0.02 +12.9 24
1996-06-25 Jurnieks Riga D 1-153.2 1250 1313 30.95% 23.43% 45.61%-0.35 +1.1 8
1996-06-25 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 1-153.2 1313 1250 45.61% 23.43% 30.95%+0.35 -1.1 7
1996-06-29 Skonto Metals Rinar D 0-051.0 1442 1251 62.19% 21.81% 16.01%+1.32 -4.1 17
1996-06-29 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 0-051.0 1251 1442 16.01% 21.81% 62.19%-1.32 +4.1 9
1996-06-29 Dinaburg D 1-167.7 1535 1617 28.58% 23.33% 48.10%-0.47 +1.4 22
1996-06-29 @ Universitate Riga D 1-167.7 1617 1535 48.10% 23.33% 28.58%+0.47 -1.4 22
1996-06-29 Baltika Liepja D 2-260.0 1312 1437 23.72% 22.97% 53.31%-0.75 +1.7 8
1996-06-29 @ Jurnieks Riga D 2-260.0 1437 1312 53.31% 22.97% 23.72%+0.75 -1.7 19
1996-06-29 Lokomotve Daugavpils W 3-255.4 1896 1360 83.11% 13.85% 3.04%+3.58 +1.0 31
1996-06-29 @ Skonto L 2-355.4 1360 1896 3.04% 13.85% 83.11%-3.58 -1.0 5
1996-06-29 Starts Brocni W 2-147.4 1649 1353 70.49% 19.75% 9.76%+2.00 +3.8 27
1996-06-29 @ Daugava Riga L 1-247.4 1353 1649 9.76% 19.75% 70.49%-2.00 -3.8 10
1996-07-06 Starts Brocni W 4-038.2 1616 1350 68.37% 20.39% 11.23%+1.81 +16.4 25
1996-07-06 @ Dinaburg L 0-438.2 1350 1616 11.23% 20.39% 68.37%-1.81 -16.4 10
1996-07-06 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-141.1 1537 1255 69.47% 20.07% 10.46%+1.91 +4.0 25
1996-07-06 @ Universitate Riga L 1-241.1 1255 1537 10.46% 20.07% 69.47%-1.91 -4.0 9
1996-07-06 Vairogs Rezekne W 3-150.9 1435 1438 39.13% 23.56% 37.30%+0.04 +21.7 22
1996-07-06 @ Baltika Liepja L 1-350.9 1438 1435 37.30% 23.56% 39.13%-0.04 -21.7 17
1996-07-06 Jurnieks Riga W 2-146.3 1359 1314 45.85% 23.43% 30.72%+0.36 +10.8 8
1996-07-06 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 1-246.3 1314 1359 30.72% 23.43% 45.85%-0.36 -10.8 8
1996-07-06 Daugava Riga D 3-381.4 1897 1653 66.74% 20.83% 12.43%+1.67 -2.7 32
1996-07-06 @ Skonto D 3-381.4 1653 1897 12.43% 20.83% 66.74%-1.67 +2.7 28
1996-07-13 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-155.9 1417 1370 46.03% 23.42% 30.55%+0.37 -1.1 18
1996-07-13 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 1-155.9 1370 1417 30.55% 23.42% 46.03%-0.37 +1.1 9
1996-07-13 Skonto L 0-449.7 1632 1895 12.51% 20.85% 66.63%-1.66 -18.3 25
1996-07-13 @ Dinaburg W 4-049.7 1895 1632 66.63% 20.85% 12.51%+1.66 +18.3 35
1996-07-13 Starts Brocni L 0-155.2 1541 1333 63.65% 21.53% 14.82%+1.42 -21.0 25
1996-07-13 @ Universitate Riga W 1-055.2 1333 1541 14.82% 21.53% 63.65%-1.42 +21.0 13
1996-07-22 Universitate Riga W 1-052.8 1655 1520 56.72% 22.62% 20.67%+0.95 +8.2 31
1996-07-22 @ Daugava Riga L 0-152.8 1520 1655 20.67% 22.62% 56.72%-0.95 -8.2 25
1996-07-22 Baltika Liepja W 5-044.5 1913 1457 79.63% 15.86% 4.51%+3.05 +7.6 38
1996-07-22 @ Skonto L 0-544.5 1457 1913 4.51% 15.86% 79.63%-3.05 -7.6 22
1996-07-22 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-154.7 1354 1371 37.18% 23.56% 39.26%-0.05 +0.1 14
1996-07-22 @ Starts Brocni D 1-154.7 1371 1354 39.26% 23.56% 37.18%+0.05 -0.1 10
1996-07-22 Baltika Liepja L 0-236.0 1251 1449 16.98% 22.01% 61.01%-1.23 -12.9 9
1996-07-22 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-036.0 1449 1251 61.01% 22.01% 16.98%+1.23 +12.9 25
1996-07-22 Jurnieks Riga W 7-035.9 1664 1303 74.60% 18.24% 7.15%+2.43 +17.4 34
1996-07-22 @ Daugava Riga L 0-735.9 1303 1664 7.15% 18.24% 74.60%-2.43 -17.4 8
1996-07-27 Baltika Liepja L 0-154.0 1511 1462 46.37% 23.41% 30.23%+0.39 -15.8 25
1996-07-27 @ Universitate Riga W 1-054.0 1462 1511 30.23% 23.41% 46.37%-0.39 +15.8 28
1996-07-27 Dinaburg D 0-056.3 1286 1614 9.16% 19.46% 71.38%-2.09 +5.7 9
1996-07-27 @ Jurnieks Riga D 0-056.3 1614 1286 71.38% 19.46% 9.16%+2.09 -5.7 26
1996-07-27 Skonto Metals Rinar W 1-038.2 1371 1239 56.35% 22.66% 20.99%+0.93 +8.3 13
1996-07-27 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-138.2 1239 1371 20.99% 22.66% 56.35%-0.93 -8.3 9
1996-07-27 Starts Brocni W 4-042.5 1921 1354 84.28% 13.10% 2.62%+3.78 +3.4 41
1996-07-27 @ Skonto L 0-442.5 1354 1921 2.62% 13.10% 84.28%-3.78 -3.4 14
1996-07-27 Vairogs Rezekne W 2-045.4 1681 1416 68.33% 20.40% 11.26%+1.80 +8.7 37
1996-07-27 @ Daugava Riga L 0-245.4 1416 1681 11.26% 20.40% 68.33%-1.80 -8.7 18
1996-08-04 Vairogs Rezekne W 4-041.7 1608 1407 63.10% 21.64% 15.27%+1.38 +22.2 29
1996-08-04 @ Dinaburg L 0-441.7 1407 1608 15.27% 21.64% 63.10%-1.38 -22.2 18
1996-08-04 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 2-360.7 1478 1379 52.53% 23.03% 24.43%+0.71 -15.8 28
1996-08-04 @ Baltika Liepja W 3-260.7 1379 1478 24.43% 23.03% 52.53%-0.71 +15.8 16
1996-08-04 Universitate Riga W 11-145.9 1924 1496 78.29% 16.56% 5.16%+2.87 +14.1 44
1996-08-04 @ Skonto L 1-1145.9 1496 1924 5.16% 16.56% 78.29%-2.87 -14.1 25
1996-08-04 Daugava Riga L 0-433.5 1230 1690 4.87% 16.26% 78.87%-2.95 -6.8 9
1996-08-04 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-033.5 1690 1230 78.87% 16.26% 4.87%+2.95 +6.8 40
1996-08-04 Jurnieks Riga W 4-142.4 1351 1291 47.71% 23.35% 28.94%+0.45 +25.1 17
1996-08-04 @ Starts Brocni L 1-442.4 1291 1351 28.94% 23.35% 47.71%-0.45 -25.1 9
1996-08-10 Starts Brocni L 1-250.7 1385 1376 40.83% 23.55% 35.62%+0.12 -13.4 18
1996-08-10 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 2-150.7 1376 1385 35.62% 23.55% 40.83%-0.12 +13.4 20
1996-08-10 Skonto L 0-440.3 1266 1938 1.69% 11.08% 87.23%-4.34 -2.1 9
1996-08-10 @ Jurnieks Riga W 4-040.3 1938 1266 87.23% 11.08% 1.69%+4.34 +2.1 47
1996-08-10 Daugava Riga L 0-150.1 1462 1696 14.30% 21.39% 64.31%-1.47 -5.8 28
1996-08-10 @ Baltika Liepja W 1-050.1 1696 1462 64.31% 21.39% 14.30%+1.47 +5.8 43
1996-08-10 Universitate Riga D 1-158.2 1395 1481 28.02% 23.30% 48.68%-0.50 +1.5 17
1996-08-10 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-158.2 1481 1395 48.68% 23.30% 28.02%+0.50 -1.5 26
1996-08-10 Dinaburg L 0-234.6 1223 1630 6.28% 17.58% 76.13%-2.60 -4.7 9
1996-08-10 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-034.6 1630 1223 76.13% 17.58% 6.28%+2.60 +4.7 32

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1996-08-25 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-155.5 1371 1397 36.00% 23.55% 40.44%-0.10 +0.3 1
1996-08-25 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 1-155.5 1397 1371 40.44% 23.55% 36.00%+0.10 -0.3 1
1996-08-25 Starts Brocni W 2-148.5 1480 1389 51.56% 23.11% 25.33%+0.66 +9.2 3
1996-08-25 @ Universitate Riga L 1-248.5 1389 1480 25.33% 23.11% 51.56%-0.66 -9.2 0
1996-08-25 Skonto L 0-247.4 1456 1940 4.33% 15.65% 80.03%-3.11 -3.1 0
1996-08-25 @ Baltika Liepja W 2-047.4 1940 1456 80.03% 15.65% 4.33%+3.11 +3.1 3
1996-08-25 Jurnieks Riga L 0-141.5 1219 1264 33.25% 23.51% 43.24%-0.23 -12.2 0
1996-08-25 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 1-041.5 1264 1219 43.24% 23.51% 33.25%+0.23 +12.2 3
1996-08-25 Dinaburg D 0-067.3 1702 1635 48.70% 23.29% 28.01%+0.50 -1.7 1
1996-08-25 @ Daugava Riga D 0-067.3 1635 1702 28.01% 23.29% 48.70%-0.50 +1.7 1
1996-09-01 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-141.4 1372 1207 59.70% 22.22% 18.08%+1.15 +6.8 4
1996-09-01 @ Vairogs Rezekne L 1-241.4 1207 1372 18.08% 22.22% 59.70%-1.15 -6.8 0
1996-09-01 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 1-244.3 1276 1396 24.22% 23.01% 52.77%-0.72 -8.8 3
1996-09-01 @ Jurnieks Riga W 2-144.3 1396 1276 52.77% 23.01% 24.22%+0.72 +8.8 4
1996-09-08 Universitate Riga L 0-445.3 1453 1489 34.52% 23.53% 41.94%-0.17 -44.8 0
1996-09-08 @ Baltika Liepja W 4-045.3 1489 1453 41.94% 23.53% 34.52%+0.17 +44.8 6
1996-09-08 Dinaburg W 3-155.4 1943 1637 71.24% 19.51% 9.26%+2.07 +6.2 6
1996-09-08 @ Skonto L 1-355.4 1637 1943 9.26% 19.51% 71.24%-2.07 -6.2 1
1996-09-08 Daugava Riga L 1-447.1 1380 1701 9.51% 19.63% 70.86%-2.04 -9.0 0
1996-09-08 @ Starts Brocni W 4-147.1 1701 1380 70.86% 19.63% 9.51%+2.04 +9.0 4
1996-09-08 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-237.5 1267 1405 22.38% 22.83% 54.79%-0.84 -16.5 3
1996-09-08 @ Jurnieks Riga W 2-037.5 1405 1267 54.79% 22.83% 22.38%+0.84 +16.5 7
1996-09-08 Vairogs Rezekne L 1-241.6 1200 1378 18.55% 22.30% 59.15%-1.11 -7.0 0
1996-09-08 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-141.6 1378 1200 59.15% 22.30% 18.55%+1.11 +7.0 7
1996-09-13 Starts Brocni W 7-039.2 1630 1371 67.86% 20.53% 11.60%+1.76 +28.8 4
1996-09-13 @ Dinaburg L 0-739.2 1371 1630 11.60% 20.53% 67.86%-1.76 -28.8 0
1996-09-13 Skonto L 0-150.6 1534 1949 6.02% 17.37% 76.61%-2.66 -2.4 6
1996-09-13 @ Universitate Riga W 1-050.6 1949 1534 76.61% 17.37% 6.02%+2.66 +2.4 9
1996-09-13 Baltika Liepja W 3-150.0 1710 1408 70.87% 19.63% 9.50%+2.04 +6.3 7
1996-09-13 @ Daugava Riga L 1-350.0 1408 1710 9.50% 19.63% 70.87%-2.04 -6.3 0
1996-09-13 Vairogs Rezekne L 2-347.8 1251 1385 22.69% 22.86% 54.44%-0.82 -7.9 3
1996-09-13 @ Jurnieks Riga W 3-247.8 1385 1251 54.44% 22.86% 22.69%+0.82 +7.9 10
1996-09-13 Skonto Metals Rinar D 1-154.3 1422 1193 65.46% 21.13% 13.40%+1.56 -4.2 8
1996-09-13 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-154.3 1193 1422 13.40% 21.13% 65.46%-1.56 +4.2 1
1996-09-15 Daugava Riga L 1-356.4 1532 1716 18.07% 22.22% 59.71%-1.15 -11.8 6
1996-09-15 @ Universitate Riga W 3-156.4 1716 1532 59.71% 22.22% 18.07%+1.15 +11.8 10
1996-09-15 Dinaburg W 2-060.8 1402 1659 12.84% 20.96% 66.20%-1.62 +41.1 3
1996-09-15 @ Baltika Liepja L 0-260.8 1659 1402 66.20% 20.96% 12.84%+1.62 -41.1 4
1996-09-15 Starts Brocni W 4-042.3 1952 1343 85.82% 12.07% 2.11%+4.06 +2.7 12
1996-09-15 @ Skonto L 0-442.3 1343 1952 2.11% 12.07% 85.82%-4.06 -2.7 0
1996-09-15 Jurnieks Riga W 2-141.8 1417 1243 60.63% 22.07% 17.30%+1.21 +6.6 11
1996-09-15 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 1-241.8 1243 1417 17.30% 22.07% 60.63%-1.21 -6.6 3
1996-09-15 Vairogs Rezekne W 3-258.7 1197 1393 17.09% 22.03% 60.88%-1.22 +18.0 4
1996-09-15 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 2-358.7 1393 1197 60.88% 22.03% 17.09%+1.22 -18.0 10
1996-09-21 Universitate Riga W 2-157.5 1618 1520 52.51% 23.04% 24.45%+0.71 +8.9 7
1996-09-21 @ Dinaburg L 1-257.5 1520 1618 24.45% 23.04% 52.51%-0.71 -8.9 6
1996-09-21 Baltika Liepja L 0-142.1 1340 1443 26.05% 23.17% 50.78%-0.61 -10.0 0
1996-09-21 @ Starts Brocni W 1-042.1 1443 1340 50.78% 23.17% 26.05%+0.61 +10.0 6
1996-09-21 Skonto D 1-173.0 1728 1954 14.82% 21.53% 63.66%-1.42 +3.9 11
1996-09-21 @ Daugava Riga D 1-173.0 1954 1728 63.66% 21.53% 14.82%+1.42 -3.9 13
1996-09-21 Jurnieks Riga D 1-153.8 1375 1236 57.04% 22.58% 20.38%+0.97 -2.8 11
1996-09-21 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 1-153.8 1236 1375 20.38% 22.58% 57.04%-0.97 +2.8 4
1996-09-21 Lokomotve Daugavpils L 1-438.0 1215 1424 16.11% 21.83% 62.06%-1.31 -15.1 4
1996-09-21 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-138.0 1424 1215 62.06% 21.83% 16.11%+1.31 +15.1 14
1996-09-25 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-243.2 1239 1200 45.04% 23.45% 31.51%+0.32 -29.1 4
1996-09-25 @ Jurnieks Riga W 2-043.2 1200 1239 31.51% 23.45% 45.04%-0.32 +29.1 7
1996-09-25 Vairogs Rezekne L 1-254.0 1439 1372 48.60% 23.30% 28.10%+0.50 -15.5 14
1996-09-25 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-154.0 1372 1439 28.10% 23.30% 48.60%-0.50 +15.5 14
1996-09-28 Daugava Riga D 1-171.3 1627 1732 25.92% 23.16% 50.92%-0.62 +1.9 8
1996-09-28 @ Dinaburg D 1-171.3 1732 1627 50.92% 23.16% 25.92%+0.62 -1.9 12
1996-09-28 Baltika Liepja W 3-045.6 1951 1453 81.50% 14.81% 3.68%+3.33 +3.8 16
1996-09-28 @ Skonto L 0-345.6 1453 1951 3.68% 14.81% 81.50%-3.33 -3.8 6
1996-09-28 Universitate Riga W 1-053.2 1330 1511 18.36% 22.27% 59.37%-1.12 +19.7 3
1996-09-28 @ Starts Brocni L 0-153.2 1511 1330 59.37% 22.27% 18.36%+1.12 -19.7 6
1996-09-28 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-149.6 1388 1229 59.11% 22.31% 18.59%+1.11 -19.6 14
1996-09-28 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 1-049.6 1229 1388 18.59% 22.31% 59.11%-1.11 +19.6 10
1996-09-28 Jurnieks Riga W 1-036.0 1424 1210 64.17% 21.42% 14.41%+1.46 +5.9 17
1996-09-28 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 0-136.0 1210 1424 14.41% 21.42% 64.17%-1.46 -5.9 4
1996-10-05 Vairogs Rezekne W 5-148.7 1204 1368 19.84% 22.50% 57.66%-1.01 +57.2 7
1996-10-05 @ Jurnieks Riga L 1-548.7 1368 1204 57.66% 22.50% 19.84%+1.01 -57.2 14
1996-10-05 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-249.0 1429 1249 61.23% 21.97% 16.80%+1.25 -38.2 17
1996-10-05 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils W 2-049.0 1249 1429 16.80% 21.97% 61.23%-1.25 +38.2 13
1996-10-12 Vairogs Rezekne W 3-249.8 1391 1311 50.28% 23.20% 26.52%+0.59 +9.0 20
1996-10-12 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils L 2-349.8 1311 1391 26.52% 23.20% 50.28%-0.59 -9.1 14
1996-10-12 Jurnieks Riga D 0-049.3 1287 1261 43.16% 23.51% 33.33%+0.23 -0.8 14
1996-10-12 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 0-049.3 1261 1287 33.33% 23.51% 43.16%-0.23 +0.8 8
1996-10-14 Skonto D 1-173.4 1629 1954 9.28% 19.52% 71.21%-2.07 +5.0 9
1996-10-14 @ Dinaburg D 1-173.4 1954 1629 71.21% 19.52% 9.28%+2.07 -5.0 17
1996-10-14 Baltika Liepja D 2-265.0 1491 1449 45.35% 23.44% 31.20%+0.34 -0.8 7
1996-10-14 @ Universitate Riga D 2-265.0 1449 1491 31.20% 23.44% 45.35%-0.34 +0.8 7
1996-10-14 Starts Brocni W 3-041.2 1730 1350 75.73% 17.76% 6.51%+2.56 +7.1 15
1996-10-14 @ Daugava Riga L 0-341.2 1350 1730 6.51% 17.76% 75.73%-2.56 -7.1 3
1996-10-14 Jurnieks Riga L 1-249.8 1302 1262 45.12% 23.45% 31.43%+0.32 -14.6 14
1996-10-14 @ Vairogs Rezekne W 2-149.8 1262 1302 31.43% 23.45% 45.12%-0.32 +14.6 11
1996-10-14 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 2-259.0 1286 1400 24.86% 23.07% 52.07%-0.68 +1.5 15
1996-10-14 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 2-259.0 1400 1286 52.07% 23.07% 24.86%+0.68 -1.5 21
1996-10-21 Daugava Riga L 0-545.1 1450 1737 11.16% 20.36% 68.47%-1.82 -20.1 7
1996-10-21 @ Baltika Liepja W 5-045.1 1737 1450 68.47% 20.36% 11.16%+1.82 +20.1 18
1996-10-21 Universitate Riga W 6-044.8 1949 1490 79.77% 15.78% 4.44%+3.07 +8.9 20
1996-10-21 @ Skonto L 0-644.8 1490 1949 4.44% 15.78% 79.77%-3.07 -8.9 7
1996-10-21 Dinaburg L 2-841.1 1342 1634 10.91% 20.26% 68.83%-1.85 -16.0 3
1996-10-21 @ Starts Brocni W 8-241.1 1634 1342 68.83% 20.26% 10.91%+1.85 +16.0 12
1996-10-21 Lokomotve Daugavpils D 1-154.3 1288 1399 25.18% 23.10% 51.72%-0.67 +2.0 15
1996-10-21 @ Vairogs Rezekne D 1-154.3 1399 1288 51.72% 23.10% 25.18%+0.67 -2.0 22
1996-10-21 Skonto Metals Rinar L 1-247.7 1277 1288 38.05% 23.56% 38.39%-0.01 -12.7 11
1996-10-21 @ Jurnieks Riga W 2-147.7 1288 1277 38.39% 23.56% 38.05%+0.01 +12.7 18
1996-10-28 Baltika Liepja W 3-044.5 1650 1430 64.72% 21.30% 13.98%+1.51 +15.6 15
1996-10-28 @ Dinaburg L 0-344.5 1430 1650 13.98% 21.30% 64.72%-1.51 -15.6 7
1996-10-28 Skonto L 0-244.5 1327 1958 2.08% 12.00% 85.93%-4.08 -1.4 3
1996-10-28 @ Starts Brocni W 2-044.5 1958 1327 85.93% 12.00% 2.08%+4.08 +1.4 23
1996-10-28 Universitate Riga L 0-168.0 1757 1481 69.08% 20.19% 10.73%+1.87 -22.7 18
1996-10-28 @ Daugava Riga W 1-068.0 1481 1757 10.73% 20.19% 69.08%-1.87 +22.7 10
1996-11-02 Dinaburg W 2-062.0 1504 1666 20.08% 22.54% 57.39%-1.00 +36.0 13
1996-11-02 @ Universitate Riga L 0-262.0 1666 1504 57.39% 22.54% 20.08%+1.00 -36.0 15
1996-11-02 Starts Brocni W 3-144.1 1414 1325 51.42% 23.12% 25.46%+0.65 +16.0 10
1996-11-02 @ Baltika Liepja L 1-344.1 1325 1414 25.46% 23.12% 51.42%-0.65 -16.0 3
1996-11-02 Daugava Riga W 1-054.4 1960 1734 65.18% 21.20% 13.62%+1.54 +5.6 26
1996-11-02 @ Skonto L 0-154.4 1734 1960 13.62% 21.20% 65.18%-1.54 -5.6 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-05-25 3.48% @ Starts Brocni 1373 2 Skonto 1902 1
2 1996-06-08 5.22% Skonto Metals Rinar 1226 2 @ Dinaburg 1652 1
3 1996-10-28 10.73% Universitate Riga 1481 1 @ Daugava Riga 1757 0
4 1996-09-15 12.84% @ Baltika Liepja 1402 2 Dinaburg 1659 0
5 1996-07-13 14.82% Starts Brocni 1333 1 @ Universitate Riga 1541 0
6 1996-05-25 15.85% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1219 1 Lokomotve Daugavpils 1432 0
7 1996-10-05 16.80% Skonto Metals Rinar 1249 2 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1429 0
8 1996-09-15 17.09% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1197 3 Vairogs Rezekne 1393 2
9 1996-09-28 18.36% @ Starts Brocni 1330 1 Universitate Riga 1511 0
10 1996-09-28 18.59% Skonto Metals Rinar 1229 1 @ Vairogs Rezekne 1388 0
11 1996-10-05 19.84% @ Jurnieks Riga 1204 5 Vairogs Rezekne 1368 1
12 1996-11-02 20.08% @ Universitate Riga 1504 2 Dinaburg 1666 0
13 1996-08-04 24.43% Lokomotve Daugavpils 1379 3 @ Baltika Liepja 1478 2
14 1996-04-27 25.70% Vairogs Rezekne 1400 3 @ Universitate Riga 1487 0
15 1996-04-20 26.96% @ Baltika Liepja 1338 1 Starts Brocni 1434 0
16 1996-09-25 28.10% Vairogs Rezekne 1372 2 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1439 1
17 1996-05-04 28.87% @ Baltika Liepja 1353 4 Jurnieks Riga 1433 0
18 1996-07-27 30.23% Baltika Liepja 1462 1 @ Universitate Riga 1511 0
19 1996-10-14 31.43% Jurnieks Riga 1262 2 @ Vairogs Rezekne 1302 1
20 1996-09-25 31.51% Skonto Metals Rinar 1200 2 @ Jurnieks Riga 1239 0
21 1996-04-20 31.82% @ Vairogs Rezekne 1384 1 Jurnieks Riga 1441 0
22 1996-05-18 32.76% @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1417 1 Vairogs Rezekne 1466 0
23 1996-08-10 35.62% Starts Brocni 1376 2 @ Vairogs Rezekne 1385 1
24 1996-06-05 37.01% Baltika Liepja 1392 2 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1391 1
25 1996-06-25 37.72% Daugava Riga 1636 2 @ Dinaburg 1630 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-05-04 58.02 @ Baltika Liepja 4 1353 28.87% Jurnieks Riga 0 1433 47.79% 23.34%
2 1996-10-05 57.19 @ Jurnieks Riga 5 1204 19.84% Vairogs Rezekne 1 1368 57.66% 22.50%
3 1996-04-27 47.13 Vairogs Rezekne 3 1400 25.70% @ Universitate Riga 0 1487 51.16% 23.14%
4 1996-09-08 44.76 Universitate Riga 4 1489 41.94% @ Baltika Liepja 0 1453 34.52% 23.53%
5 1996-09-15 41.14 @ Baltika Liepja 2 1402 12.84% Dinaburg 0 1659 66.20% 20.96%
6 1996-10-05 38.25 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1249 16.80% @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 0 1429 61.23% 21.97%
7 1996-05-18 36.35 @ Skonto 7 1865 63.76% Dinaburg 0 1657 14.74% 21.50%
8 1996-11-02 36.02 @ Universitate Riga 2 1504 20.08% Dinaburg 0 1666 57.39% 22.54%
9 1996-09-25 29.09 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1200 31.51% @ Jurnieks Riga 0 1239 45.04% 23.45%
10 1996-09-13 28.79 @ Dinaburg 7 1630 67.86% Starts Brocni 0 1371 11.60% 20.53%
11 1996-05-11 26.30 @ Dinaburg 5 1630 63.87% Starts Brocni 0 1421 14.65% 21.48%
12 1996-08-04 25.10 @ Starts Brocni 4 1351 47.71% Jurnieks Riga 1 1291 28.94% 23.35%
13 1996-06-08 24.65 Vairogs Rezekne 6 1419 39.03% @ Starts Brocni 3 1403 37.41% 23.56%
14 1996-05-25 24.29 @ Starts Brocni 2 1373 3.48% Skonto 1 1902 82.01% 14.52%
15 1996-06-08 23.60 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1226 5.22% @ Dinaburg 1 1652 78.16% 16.62%
16 1996-06-23 23.56 Baltika Liepja 2 1413 42.00% @ Starts Brocni 0 1377 34.47% 23.53%
17 1996-05-11 22.79 @ Universitate Riga 4 1444 62.55% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1249 15.71% 21.74%
18 1996-10-28 22.68 Universitate Riga 1 1481 10.73% @ Daugava Riga 0 1757 69.08% 20.19%
19 1996-08-04 22.18 @ Dinaburg 4 1608 63.10% Vairogs Rezekne 0 1407 15.27% 21.64%
20 1996-07-06 21.69 @ Baltika Liepja 3 1435 39.13% Vairogs Rezekne 1 1438 37.30% 23.56%
21 1996-07-13 21.04 Starts Brocni 1 1333 14.82% @ Universitate Riga 0 1541 63.65% 21.53%
22 1996-05-18 20.96 Universitate Riga 2 1467 46.87% @ Starts Brocni 0 1394 29.74% 23.38%
23 1996-05-25 20.64 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1219 15.85% Lokomotve Daugavpils 0 1432 62.37% 21.77%
24 1996-06-01 20.45 Daugava Riga 5 1609 60.97% @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1411 17.01% 22.02%
25 1996-05-04 20.42 Vairogs Rezekne 3 1447 59.04% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1269 18.64% 22.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-07-06 81.4 @ Skonto 3 1897 66.74% Daugava Riga 3 1653 12.43% 20.83%
2 1996-05-25 75.2 @ Starts Brocni 2 1373 3.48% Skonto 1 1902 82.01% 14.52%
3 1996-04-27 73.9 @ Daugava Riga 2 1581 32.04% Dinaburg 2 1635 44.48% 23.47%
4 1996-10-14 73.4 @ Dinaburg 1 1629 9.28% Skonto 1 1954 71.21% 19.52%
5 1996-09-21 73.0 @ Daugava Riga 1 1728 14.82% Skonto 1 1954 63.66% 21.53%
6 1996-09-28 71.3 @ Dinaburg 1 1627 25.92% Daugava Riga 1 1732 50.92% 23.16%
7 1996-06-05 69.3 @ Universitate Riga 0 1513 7.34% Skonto 0 1887 74.29% 18.37%
8 1996-06-15 68.6 @ Jurnieks Riga 4 1330 17.10% Universitate Riga 4 1526 60.86% 22.04%
9 1996-10-28 68.0 Universitate Riga 1 1481 10.73% @ Daugava Riga 0 1757 69.08% 20.19%
10 1996-06-29 67.7 @ Universitate Riga 1 1535 28.58% Dinaburg 1 1617 48.10% 23.33%
11 1996-08-25 67.3 @ Daugava Riga 0 1702 48.70% Dinaburg 0 1635 28.01% 23.29%
12 1996-10-14 65.0 @ Universitate Riga 2 1491 45.35% Baltika Liepja 2 1449 31.20% 23.44%
13 1996-06-25 64.8 Daugava Riga 2 1636 37.72% @ Dinaburg 1 1630 38.72% 23.56%
14 1996-06-08 64.7 @ Daugava Riga 1 1636 65.61% Baltika Liepja 1 1405 13.29% 21.10%
15 1996-06-15 64.6 @ Dinaburg 1 1629 64.69% Baltika Liepja 1 1409 14.00% 21.31%
16 1996-06-08 62.7 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1226 5.22% @ Dinaburg 1 1652 78.16% 16.62%
17 1996-11-02 62.0 @ Universitate Riga 2 1504 20.08% Dinaburg 0 1666 57.39% 22.54%
18 1996-04-27 61.9 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 2 1428 41.14% Starts Brocni 2 1417 35.32% 23.54%
19 1996-05-04 61.9 @ Dinaburg 0 1635 62.53% Universitate Riga 0 1440 15.73% 21.74%
20 1996-09-15 60.8 @ Baltika Liepja 2 1402 12.84% Dinaburg 0 1659 66.20% 20.96%
21 1996-08-04 60.7 Lokomotve Daugavpils 3 1379 24.43% @ Baltika Liepja 2 1478 52.53% 23.03%
22 1996-06-29 60.0 @ Jurnieks Riga 2 1312 23.72% Baltika Liepja 2 1437 53.31% 22.97%
23 1996-10-14 59.0 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1286 24.86% Lokomotve Daugavpils 2 1400 52.07% 23.07%
24 1996-05-04 58.9 @ Starts Brocni 0 1417 19.83% Daugava Riga 0 1581 57.67% 22.50%
25 1996-09-15 58.7 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 3 1197 17.09% Vairogs Rezekne 2 1393 60.88% 22.03%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-05-11 33.1 @ Universitate Riga 4 1444 62.55% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1249 15.71% 21.74%
2 1996-06-05 33.2 @ Daugava Riga 3 1629 76.60% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1233 6.03% 17.37%
3 1996-08-04 33.5 Daugava Riga 4 1690 78.87% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1230 4.87% 16.26%
4 1996-08-10 34.6 Dinaburg 2 1630 76.13% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1223 6.28% 17.58%
5 1996-05-04 35.4 Vairogs Rezekne 3 1447 59.04% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1269 18.64% 22.31%
6 1996-07-22 35.9 @ Daugava Riga 7 1664 74.60% Jurnieks Riga 0 1303 7.15% 18.24%
7 1996-07-22 36.0 Baltika Liepja 2 1449 61.01% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1251 16.98% 22.01%
8 1996-09-28 36.0 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1424 64.17% Jurnieks Riga 0 1210 14.41% 21.42%
9 1996-05-18 36.8 @ Baltika Liepja 1 1413 61.81% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1226 16.32% 21.87%
10 1996-09-08 37.5 Lokomotve Daugavpils 2 1405 54.79% @ Jurnieks Riga 0 1267 22.38% 22.83%
11 1996-09-21 38.0 Lokomotve Daugavpils 4 1424 62.06% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1215 16.11% 21.83%
12 1996-07-06 38.2 @ Dinaburg 4 1616 68.37% Starts Brocni 0 1350 11.23% 20.39%
13 1996-07-27 38.2 @ Lokomotve Daugavpils 1 1371 56.35% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1239 20.99% 22.66%
14 1996-04-27 38.6 @ Jurnieks Riga 1 1425 58.02% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1277 19.53% 22.46%
15 1996-04-20 39.0 Skonto 5 1844 83.39% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1282 2.94% 13.67%
16 1996-09-13 39.2 @ Dinaburg 7 1630 67.86% Starts Brocni 0 1371 11.60% 20.53%
17 1996-06-01 39.7 @ Universitate Riga 2 1498 58.21% Jurnieks Riga 0 1348 19.36% 22.43%
18 1996-06-23 40.2 Vairogs Rezekne 2 1434 50.61% @ Jurnieks Riga 0 1332 26.21% 23.18%
19 1996-08-10 40.3 Skonto 4 1938 87.23% @ Jurnieks Riga 0 1266 1.69% 11.08%
20 1996-05-18 40.8 Daugava Riga 3 1574 61.03% @ Jurnieks Riga 0 1376 16.97% 22.01%
21 1996-05-25 41.1 @ Dinaburg 2 1620 68.19% Jurnieks Riga 0 1357 11.37% 20.44%
22 1996-07-06 41.1 @ Universitate Riga 2 1537 69.47% Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1255 10.46% 20.07%
23 1996-10-21 41.1 Dinaburg 8 1634 68.83% @ Starts Brocni 2 1342 10.91% 20.26%
24 1996-06-08 41.2 @ Skonto 5 1881 83.51% Jurnieks Riga 0 1335 2.89% 13.60%
25 1996-10-14 41.2 @ Daugava Riga 3 1730 75.73% Starts Brocni 0 1350 6.51% 17.76%