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1995 Virsliga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

50 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Starts Brocni

13.32 points above expected

31 points · 17.68 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kvadrats Riga

10.07 points below expected

4 points · 14.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 18 16 2 0 50 59 8 +51 43.53 +6.47
2 Jelgava 18 12 3 3 39 33 13 +20 38.87 +0.13
3 Starts Brocni 18 9 4 5 31 21 18 +3 17.68 +13.32
4 Dinaburg 18 9 2 7 29 31 22 +9 31.01 -2.01
5 Blazma 18 6 6 6 24 28 21 +7 26.22 -2.22
6 Torpedo Riga 18 5 5 8 20 26 25 +1 20.68 -0.68
7 Skonto Metals Rinar 18 5 4 9 19 25 42 -17 19.08 -0.08
8 Liepaja (Old) 18 4 6 8 18 19 28 -9 16.78 +1.22
9 Olimpija Riga 18 5 3 10 18 23 40 -17 24.55 -6.55
10 Kvadrats Riga 18 1 1 16 4 10 58 -48 14.07 -10.07
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 10 9 1 0 28 40 7 +33 74.92 -46.92
2 Dinaburg 10 7 1 2 22 14 8 +6 40.86 -18.86
3 Torpedo Riga 10 4 3 3 15 21 13 +8 30.07 -15.07
4 Kvadrats Riga 6 4 1 1 13 12 5 +7 7.17 +5.83
5 Liepaja (Old) 6 3 1 2 10 7 6 +1 29.39 -19.39
6 Skonto Metals Rinar 6 3 0 3 9 12 9 +3 27.68 -18.68
7 Jelgava 10 2 3 5 9 7 15 -8 55.47 -46.47
8 Starts Brocni 10 2 1 7 7 10 25 -15 41.29 -34.29
9 Blazma 10 1 1 8 4 7 31 -24 34.50 -30.50
10 Olimpija Riga 6 0 2 4 2 6 17 -11 28.59 -26.59

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Starts Brocni 31 17.68 +13.32
2 Skonto 50 43.53 +6.47
3 Liepaja (Old) 18 16.78 +1.22
4 Jelgava 39 38.87 +0.13
5 Skonto Metals Rinar 19 19.08 -0.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kvadrats Riga 4 14.07 -10.07
2 Olimpija Riga 18 24.55 -6.55
3 Blazma 24 26.22 -2.22
4 Dinaburg 29 31.01 -2.01
5 Torpedo Riga 20 20.68 -0.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Starts Brocni 2 Apr 16 – Apr 19 1 in 114
2 Liepaja (Old) 3 Jul 8 – Jul 19 1 in 38
3 Skonto 11 May 10 – Jul 26 1 in 24
4 Torpedo Riga 1 May 14 – May 14 1 in 8
5 Blazma 3 Apr 19 – May 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Olimpija Riga 4 Apr 16 – May 14 1 in 132
2 Kvadrats Riga 13 May 28 – Sep 2 1 in 112
3 Torpedo Riga 2 Apr 16 – Apr 19 1 in 25
4 Liepaja (Old) 4 May 3 – May 28 1 in 7
5 Skonto Metals Rinar 3 Apr 20 – May 3 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Starts Brocni 6 May 14 – Jul 12 1 in 32
2 Liepaja (Old) 4 Jul 1 – Jul 19 1 in 18
3 Torpedo Riga 3 Apr 29 – May 14 1 in 11
4 Skonto 18 Apr 16 – Aug 30 1 in 4
5 Olimpija Riga 4 May 28 – Jun 27 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Blazma 7 May 10 – Jul 12 1 in 71
2 Olimpija Riga 6 Apr 16 – Jun 9 1 in 57
3 Dinaburg 4 Jul 26 – Aug 30 1 in 19
4 Jelgava 2 Jul 28 – Aug 2 1 in 15
5 Torpedo Riga 4 Apr 16 – May 10 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 2076 78 +29 13 12.8 +0.2
Dinaburg 1736 51 +57 10 8.3 +1.7
Jelgava 1551 48 -12 5 5.8 -0.8
Starts Brocni 1461 38 -71 3 5.3 -2.3
Torpedo Riga 1645 35 +43 8 6.8 +1.2
Liepaja (Old) 1315 28 -76 7 9.4 -2.4
Skonto Metals Rinar 1233 28 -31 6 8.1 -2.1
Blazma 1383 28 -46 3 3.3 -0.3
Olimpija Riga 1096 20 -158 2 5.7 -3.7
Kvadrats Riga 1285 17 +265 13 4.8 +8.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BLA DIN JEL KR L( OR SKO SMR SB TR
Blazma —
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-1
1.10
2-0-0
4.30
0-1-1
4.18
0-1-1
3.39
0-0-2
0.81
1-1-0
3.65
0-2-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.67
Dinaburg
0-1-1
3.77
 —
0-0-2
1.67
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.51
1-0-1
3.86
0-0-2
0.98
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
4.34
0-1-1
4.47
Jelgava
1-0-1
4.52
2-0-0
3.94
 —
2-0-0
5.16
1-1-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.00
0-0-2
1.66
1-1-0
4.76
2-0-0
4.90
1-1-0
4.84
Kvadrats Riga
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
0.52
 —
1-0-1
1.79
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
0.37
0-0-2
2.44
0-0-2
2.77
0-1-1
2.09
Liepaja (Old)
1-1-0
1.43
0-0-2
1.11
0-1-1
0.67
1-0-1
3.82
 —
1-1-0
1.92
0-1-1
0.44
0-0-2
3.03
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
2.67
Olimpija Riga
1-1-0
2.21
1-0-1
1.76
0-0-2
1.61
2-0-0
3.94
0-1-1
3.68
 —
0-0-2
1.04
0-1-1
3.62
0-0-2
3.89
1-0-1
3.12
Skonto
2-0-0
4.83
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
5.35
1-1-0
5.25
2-0-0
4.59
 —
2-0-0
5.05
1-1-0
5.18
2-0-0
5.17
Skonto Metals Rinar
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
0.87
2-0-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.58
1-1-0
1.98
0-0-2
0.61
 —
0-0-2
2.92
0-1-1
2.29
Starts Brocni
0-2-0
2.06
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
0.74
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.84
2-0-0
1.72
0-1-1
0.49
2-0-0
2.68
 —
2-0-0
1.74
Torpedo Riga
1-0-1
1.93
1-1-0
1.15
0-1-1
0.80
1-1-0
3.51
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
0.50
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-2
3.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +8.9
Allowed 0.81 -7.6
Differential 0.93 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%8.71%7.20%5.68%1.89%2.65%29.17%
18.71%10.61%4.55%2.65%1.14%3.41%31.06%
27.20%4.55%4.55%1.89%—0.38%18.56%
35.68%2.65%1.89%0.76%0.38%—11.36%
41.89%1.14%—0.38%——3.41%
5+2.65%3.41%0.38%———6.44%
Total29.17%31.06%18.56%11.36%3.41%6.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.66 1.66 2.68
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%—3.57%32.14%
110.71%17.86%7.14%10.71%——46.43%
23.57%3.57%———3.57%10.71%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4———————
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total21.43%32.14%14.29%25.00%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.86 -0.61
SD 1.71 1.84 2.78
CV 1.37 0.99 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%—25.00%
110.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—21.43%
217.86%7.14%3.57%3.57%——32.14%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.07 +0.54
SD 1.31 1.25 2.12
CV 0.82 1.16 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%—3.57%—3.57%28.57%
17.14%14.29%3.57%——3.57%28.57%
214.29%10.71%————25.00%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total42.86%39.29%7.14%3.57%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.00 +0.43
SD 1.32 1.36 2.20
CV 0.92 1.36 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%16.67%12.50%—12.50%50.00%
14.17%4.17%4.17%—4.17%8.33%25.00%
24.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%——16.67%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———————
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total8.33%25.00%25.00%16.67%4.17%20.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 2.62 -1.71
SD 1.25 1.95 2.66
CV 1.36 0.74 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%12.50%—4.17%—33.33%
18.33%16.67%4.17%8.33%——37.50%
24.17%4.17%8.33%———16.67%
3—8.33%4.17%———12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%41.67%29.17%8.33%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.42 -0.33
SD 1.02 1.02 1.52
CV 0.94 0.72 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%20.83%——4.17%33.33%
18.33%8.33%4.17%8.33%—8.33%37.50%
2——8.33%———8.33%
34.17%—4.17%4.17%4.17%—16.67%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total12.50%20.83%37.50%12.50%4.17%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 2.38 -1.17
SD 1.22 2.04 2.48
CV 1.01 0.86 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—————3.57%
110.71%—————10.71%
23.57%10.71%7.14%———21.43%
317.86%—3.57%———21.43%
410.71%7.14%————17.86%
5+10.71%14.29%————25.00%
Total57.14%32.14%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.54 0.54 +3.00
SD 2.13 0.69 2.23
CV 0.60 1.29 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.17%8.33%4.17%8.33%4.17%29.17%
18.33%12.50%8.33%——8.33%37.50%
28.33%—4.17%4.17%——16.67%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———4.17%——4.17%
5+4.17%4.17%————8.33%
Total20.83%25.00%20.83%12.50%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 2.12 -0.58
SD 1.84 1.98 3.15
CV 1.19 0.93 —
Max 7 8 +6
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%—14.29%3.57%—39.29%
110.71%10.71%——3.57%7.14%32.14%
27.14%—————7.14%
314.29%3.57%3.57%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total39.29%28.57%3.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.54 -0.43
SD 1.17 1.95 2.56
CV 1.05 1.27 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%7.14%——21.43%
17.14%17.86%10.71%———35.71%
27.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%——28.57%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+3.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
Total21.43%35.71%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.36 +0.32
SD 1.74 0.99 2.18
CV 1.04 0.73 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 2076 50 43.53 +6.47 96.0% 33 36 40 43 46 50 52
Dinaburg 1736 29 31.01 -2.01 37.0% 19 23 27 31 34 39 43
Torpedo Riga 1645 20 20.68 -0.68 52.0% 10 14 18 20 23 28 32
Jelgava 1551 39 38.87 +0.13 53.0% 25 29 35 39 43 47 50
Starts Brocni 1461 31 17.68 +13.32 100.0% 6 8 15 17 21 25 29
Blazma 1383 24 26.22 -2.22 39.0% 14 18 22 26 29 35 39
Liepaja (Old) 1315 18 16.78 +1.22 69.0% 6 10 14 17 19 25 28
Kvadrats Riga 1285 4 14.07 -10.07 1.0% 4 7 10 14 18 22 24
Skonto Metals Rinar 1233 19 19.08 -0.08 53.0% 8 12 15 19 23 27 29
Olimpija Riga 1096 18 24.55 -6.55 10.0% 13 16 21 25 28 33 37

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.76%
No Edge
40.91%18.94%40.15%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 2.63 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.01+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
76%
Skonto, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.61/gm
Runaway
00.350.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.88 * Some Luck: 3.88 to 5.82 * Lucky: 5.82 to 7.76 * Wild Swing: 7.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.85 * Close: 0.85 to 1.28 * Off: 1.28 to 1.71 * Way Off: 1.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.12 points
Lucky
04.8512
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.072.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Starts Brocni
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Kvadrats Riga
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 267.81
2.21
Coin-Flip Parity
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
81%
Even
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Some Drama
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.70
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.31
Weak Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.098
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Skonto76.00%20.00%4.00%———————
Jelgava23.00%58.00%14.00%4.00%1.00%—————
Starts Brocni—1.00%—4.00%9.00%10.00%21.00%24.00%16.00%15.00%
Dinaburg1.00%14.00%49.00%19.00%12.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%——
Blazma—5.00%21.00%26.00%21.00%14.00%5.00%5.00%3.00%—
Torpedo Riga—1.00%2.00%16.00%9.00%26.00%17.00%16.00%9.00%4.00%
Skonto Metals Rinar———4.00%18.00%14.00%15.00%18.00%21.00%10.00%
Liepaja (Old)———2.00%7.00%8.00%14.00%25.00%28.00%16.00%
Olimpija Riga—1.00%10.00%25.00%21.00%19.00%13.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%
Kvadrats Riga————2.00%8.00%12.00%7.00%17.00%54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Blazma 99.00% 1.00% —
Dinaburg 99.00% 1.00% —
Jelgava 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Olimpija Riga 89.00% 10.00% 1.00%
Torpedo Riga 93.00% 6.00% 1.00%
Starts Brocni 76.00% 18.00% 6.00%
Skonto Metals Rinar 69.00% 21.00% 10.00%
Liepaja (Old) 59.00% 30.00% 11.00%
Kvadrats Riga 16.00% 13.00% 71.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Blazma 100% — —
Dinaburg 100% — —
Jelgava 100% — —
Liepaja (Old) 74.00% 26.00% —
Olimpija Riga 62.00% 38.00% —
Skonto 100% — —
Skonto Metals Rinar 64.00% 36.00% —
Starts Brocni 100% — —
Torpedo Riga 100% — —
Kvadrats Riga — — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-04-16 Liepaja (Old) D 1-157.9 1484 1333 59.41% 19.74% 20.86%+0.73 -5.7 1
1995-04-16 @ Blazma D 1-157.9 1333 1484 20.86% 19.74% 59.41%-0.73 +5.7 1
1995-04-16 Skonto L 0-154.3 1617 1813 17.67% 19.56% 62.77%-0.93 -13.1 0
1995-04-16 @ Olimpija Riga W 1-054.3 1813 1617 62.77% 19.56% 17.67%+0.93 +13.1 3
1995-04-16 Kvadrats Riga W 2-047.6 1450 1469 38.05% 20.09% 41.86%-0.08 +51.3 3
1995-04-16 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-247.6 1469 1450 41.86% 20.09% 38.05%+0.08 -51.3 0
1995-04-16 Torpedo Riga W 3-048.9 1046 1438 6.56% 18.04% 75.41%-1.87 +129.5 3
1995-04-16 @ Starts Brocni L 0-348.9 1438 1046 75.41% 18.04% 6.56%+1.87 -129.5 0
1995-04-19 Starts Brocni L 0-347.4 1418 1175 67.43% 19.21% 13.36%+1.18 -115.7 0
1995-04-19 @ Kvadrats Riga W 3-047.4 1175 1418 13.36% 19.21% 67.43%-1.18 +115.6 6
1995-04-19 Blazma L 0-139.1 1308 1478 20.05% 19.70% 60.26%-0.80 -14.7 0
1995-04-19 @ Torpedo Riga W 1-039.1 1478 1308 60.26% 19.70% 20.05%+0.80 +14.7 4
1995-04-20 Olimpija Riga W 2-054.8 1668 1604 49.48% 20.02% 30.50%+0.32 +39.6 3
1995-04-20 @ Jelgava L 0-254.8 1604 1668 30.50% 20.02% 49.48%-0.32 -39.6 0
1995-04-20 Dinaburg L 1-552.3 1501 1464 45.88% 20.06% 34.06%+0.19 -87.5 3
1995-04-20 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 5-152.3 1464 1501 34.06% 20.06% 45.88%-0.19 +87.5 3
1995-04-29 Kvadrats Riga W 2-036.5 1493 1302 63.23% 19.53% 17.24%+0.93 +24.2 7
1995-04-29 @ Blazma L 0-236.5 1302 1493 17.24% 19.53% 63.23%-0.93 -24.1 0
1995-04-29 Torpedo Riga D 1-154.9 1339 1294 46.97% 20.05% 32.98%+0.23 -1.9 2
1995-04-29 @ Liepaja (Old) D 1-154.9 1294 1339 32.98% 20.05% 46.97%-0.23 +2.0 1
1995-04-29 Dinaburg L 0-138.2 1291 1552 12.83% 19.15% 68.02%-1.24 -9.8 6
1995-04-29 @ Starts Brocni W 1-038.2 1552 1291 68.02% 19.15% 12.83%+1.24 +9.8 6
1995-04-30 Skonto L 0-443.9 1414 1826 5.92% 17.84% 76.24%-1.96 -16.4 3
1995-04-30 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-043.9 1826 1414 76.24% 17.84% 5.92%+1.96 +16.4 6
1995-05-03 Blazma L 1-261.7 1562 1517 46.96% 20.05% 32.99%+0.23 -28.2 6
1995-05-03 @ Dinaburg W 2-161.7 1517 1562 32.99% 20.05% 46.96%-0.23 +28.2 10
1995-05-03 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-044.2 1708 1397 71.81% 18.69% 9.50%+1.50 +13.8 6
1995-05-03 @ Jelgava L 0-244.2 1397 1708 9.50% 18.69% 71.81%-1.50 -13.8 3
1995-05-03 Liepaja (Old) W 3-148.6 1278 1337 32.52% 20.05% 47.43%-0.27 +49.3 3
1995-05-03 @ Kvadrats Riga L 1-348.6 1337 1278 47.43% 20.05% 32.52%+0.27 -49.3 2
1995-05-03 Starts Brocni D 0-065.2 1842 1281 81.43% 16.02% 2.55%+2.71 -14.0 7
1995-05-03 @ Skonto D 0-065.2 1281 1842 2.55% 16.02% 81.43%-2.71 +14.0 7
1995-05-10 Skonto L 0-348.5 1545 1828 11.48% 18.99% 69.53%-1.35 -24.1 10
1995-05-10 @ Blazma W 3-048.5 1828 1545 69.53% 18.99% 11.48%+1.35 +24.1 10
1995-05-10 Dinaburg L 0-236.1 1288 1533 13.85% 19.26% 66.89%-1.17 -19.8 2
1995-05-10 @ Liepaja (Old) W 2-036.1 1533 1288 66.89% 19.26% 13.85%+1.17 +19.8 9
1995-05-10 Olimpija Riga W 4-369.1 1384 1564 19.04% 19.64% 61.31%-0.85 +33.5 6
1995-05-10 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 3-469.1 1564 1384 61.31% 19.64% 19.04%+0.85 -33.5 0
1995-05-10 Jelgava L 0-437.2 1295 1721 5.49% 17.69% 76.82%-2.03 -15.2 7
1995-05-10 @ Starts Brocni W 4-037.2 1721 1295 76.82% 17.69% 5.49%+2.03 +15.2 9
1995-05-10 Kvadrats Riga D 1-154.8 1296 1327 36.27% 20.08% 43.65%-0.14 +1.0 2
1995-05-10 @ Torpedo Riga D 1-154.8 1327 1296 43.65% 20.08% 36.27%+0.14 -1.0 4
1995-05-14 Torpedo Riga L 0-155.0 1553 1297 68.43% 19.11% 12.46%+1.24 -42.9 9
1995-05-14 @ Dinaburg W 1-055.0 1297 1553 12.46% 19.11% 68.43%-1.24 +42.9 5
1995-05-14 Blazma W 2-049.8 1737 1521 65.36% 19.39% 15.26%+1.05 +21.6 12
1995-05-14 @ Jelgava L 0-249.8 1521 1737 15.26% 19.39% 65.36%-1.05 -21.6 10
1995-05-14 Starts Brocni L 0-252.0 1531 1280 68.03% 19.15% 12.82%+1.22 -80.4 0
1995-05-14 @ Olimpija Riga W 2-052.0 1280 1531 12.82% 19.15% 68.03%-1.22 +80.4 10
1995-05-14 Liepaja (Old) W 4-039.3 1852 1268 82.02% 15.73% 2.26%+2.82 +6.1 13
1995-05-14 @ Skonto L 0-439.3 1268 1852 2.26% 15.73% 82.02%-2.82 -6.1 2
1995-05-28 Olimpija Riga D 3-371.2 1499 1450 47.50% 20.04% 32.46%+0.25 -1.3 11
1995-05-28 @ Blazma D 3-371.2 1450 1499 32.46% 20.04% 47.50%-0.25 +1.3 1
1995-05-28 Dinaburg L 0-238.0 1326 1510 18.69% 19.62% 61.69%-0.87 -26.0 4
1995-05-28 @ Kvadrats Riga W 2-038.0 1510 1326 61.69% 19.62% 18.69%+0.87 +26.0 12
1995-05-28 Jelgava L 1-245.7 1262 1758 3.80% 16.92% 79.28%-2.37 -2.8 2
1995-05-28 @ Liepaja (Old) W 2-145.7 1758 1262 79.28% 16.92% 3.80%+2.37 +2.8 15
1995-05-28 Skonto L 0-342.8 1340 1858 3.38% 16.66% 79.96%-2.48 -7.1 5
1995-05-28 @ Torpedo Riga W 3-042.8 1858 1340 79.96% 16.66% 3.38%+2.48 +7.1 16
1995-06-09 Torpedo Riga D 1-167.8 1761 1332 77.30% 17.56% 5.14%+2.07 -11.5 16
1995-06-09 @ Jelgava D 1-167.8 1332 1761 5.14% 17.56% 77.30%-2.07 +11.5 6
1995-06-09 Liepaja (Old) D 2-261.2 1451 1259 63.39% 19.52% 17.08%+0.94 -5.2 2
1995-06-09 @ Olimpija Riga D 2-261.2 1259 1451 17.08% 19.52% 63.39%-0.94 +5.2 3
1995-06-09 Kvadrats Riga W 6-143.5 1866 1300 81.54% 15.97% 2.50%+2.73 +6.9 19
1995-06-09 @ Skonto L 1-643.5 1300 1866 2.50% 15.97% 81.54%-2.73 -6.9 4
1995-06-09 Starts Brocni L 2-357.5 1417 1360 48.56% 20.03% 31.41%+0.29 -27.6 6
1995-06-09 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 3-257.5 1360 1417 31.41% 20.03% 48.56%-0.29 +27.6 13
1995-06-18 Skonto Metals Rinar D 1-159.8 1498 1390 54.86% 19.90% 25.24%+0.53 -4.3 12
1995-06-18 @ Blazma D 1-159.8 1390 1498 25.24% 19.90% 54.86%-0.53 +4.3 7
1995-06-18 Skonto L 1-452.8 1536 1872 8.77% 18.56% 72.67%-1.60 -15.7 12
1995-06-18 @ Dinaburg W 4-152.8 1872 1536 72.67% 18.56% 8.77%+1.60 +15.7 22
1995-06-18 Jelgava L 0-338.7 1293 1749 4.70% 17.37% 77.93%-2.18 -10.0 4
1995-06-18 @ Kvadrats Riga W 3-038.7 1749 1293 77.93% 17.37% 4.70%+2.18 +10.0 19
1995-06-18 Olimpija Riga L 2-351.3 1344 1446 27.15% 19.95% 52.90%-0.48 -17.0 6
1995-06-18 @ Torpedo Riga W 3-251.3 1446 1344 52.90% 19.95% 27.15%+0.48 +17.0 5
1995-06-27 Kvadrats Riga W 3-034.4 1463 1283 62.28% 19.59% 18.13%+0.88 +36.7 8
1995-06-27 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-334.4 1283 1463 18.13% 19.59% 62.28%-0.88 -36.7 4
1995-06-27 Blazma D 0-055.6 1388 1494 26.71% 19.94% 53.35%-0.50 +4.3 14
1995-06-27 @ Starts Brocni D 0-055.6 1494 1388 53.35% 19.94% 26.71%+0.50 -4.3 13
1995-06-28 Dinaburg W 3-261.4 1759 1521 67.15% 19.24% 13.62%+1.16 +9.2 22
1995-06-28 @ Jelgava L 2-361.4 1521 1759 13.62% 19.24% 67.15%-1.16 -9.2 12
1995-06-28 Liepaja (Old) W 3-141.5 1394 1264 57.23% 19.82% 22.95%+0.63 +26.9 10
1995-06-28 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 1-341.5 1264 1394 22.95% 19.82% 57.23%-0.63 -26.9 3
1995-07-01 Starts Brocni D 1-155.0 1237 1392 21.48% 19.76% 58.75%-0.73 +5.5 4
1995-07-01 @ Liepaja (Old) D 1-155.0 1392 1237 58.75% 19.76% 21.48%+0.73 -5.5 15
1995-07-01 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-046.2 1327 1421 28.16% 19.97% 51.86%-0.44 +61.7 9
1995-07-01 @ Torpedo Riga L 0-246.2 1421 1327 51.86% 19.97% 28.16%+0.44 -61.7 10
1995-07-02 Olimpija Riga W 3-155.0 1511 1500 42.34% 20.08% 37.58%+0.07 +40.7 15
1995-07-02 @ Dinaburg L 1-355.0 1500 1511 37.58% 20.08% 42.34%-0.07 -40.7 8
1995-07-02 Skonto L 0-157.3 1769 1888 25.19% 19.90% 54.91%-0.56 -17.9 22
1995-07-02 @ Jelgava W 1-057.3 1888 1769 54.91% 19.90% 25.19%+0.56 +17.9 25
1995-07-08 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-634.1 1247 1359 25.97% 19.92% 54.11%-0.53 -96.1 4
1995-07-08 @ Kvadrats Riga W 6-034.1 1359 1247 54.11% 19.92% 25.97%+0.53 +96.1 13
1995-07-08 Blazma W 3-155.5 1243 1489 13.80% 19.25% 66.95%-1.17 +68.5 7
1995-07-08 @ Liepaja (Old) L 1-355.5 1489 1243 66.95% 19.25% 13.80%+1.17 -68.5 13
1995-07-08 Olimpija Riga W 7-146.8 1906 1459 77.97% 17.36% 4.67%+2.16 +15.6 28
1995-07-08 @ Skonto L 1-746.8 1459 1906 4.67% 17.36% 77.97%-2.16 -15.6 8
1995-07-08 Starts Brocni L 0-145.3 1389 1386 41.04% 20.09% 38.88%+0.02 -26.8 9
1995-07-08 @ Torpedo Riga W 1-045.3 1386 1389 38.88% 20.09% 41.04%-0.02 +26.8 18
1995-07-12 Torpedo Riga L 1-252.7 1421 1362 48.81% 20.03% 31.16%+0.30 -29.2 13
1995-07-12 @ Blazma W 2-152.7 1362 1421 31.16% 20.03% 48.81%-0.30 +29.2 12
1995-07-12 Skonto Metals Rinar W 4-043.8 1552 1455 53.53% 19.93% 26.54%+0.48 +66.9 18
1995-07-12 @ Dinaburg L 0-443.8 1455 1552 26.54% 19.93% 53.53%-0.48 -66.9 13
1995-07-12 Jelgava L 0-148.8 1444 1751 10.18% 18.81% 71.01%-1.46 -7.8 8
1995-07-12 @ Olimpija Riga W 1-048.8 1751 1444 71.01% 18.81% 10.18%+1.46 +7.8 25
1995-07-12 Kvadrats Riga W 1-034.0 1413 1150 68.85% 19.07% 12.08%+1.27 +9.2 21
1995-07-12 @ Starts Brocni L 0-134.0 1150 1413 12.08% 19.07% 68.85%-1.27 -9.2 4
1995-07-15 Starts Brocni W 3-042.9 1619 1422 63.76% 19.50% 16.74%+0.96 +34.2 21
1995-07-15 @ Dinaburg L 0-342.9 1422 1619 16.74% 19.50% 63.76%-0.96 -34.2 21
1995-07-15 Blazma L 1-534.2 1141 1392 13.54% 19.23% 67.23%-1.19 -30.6 4
1995-07-15 @ Kvadrats Riga W 5-134.2 1392 1141 67.23% 19.23% 13.54%+1.19 +30.6 16
1995-07-15 Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-152.8 1922 1388 80.68% 16.36% 2.96%+2.57 +2.1 31
1995-07-15 @ Skonto L 1-252.8 1388 1922 2.96% 16.36% 80.68%-2.57 -2.1 13
1995-07-16 Liepaja (Old) L 0-147.2 1391 1311 51.45% 19.98% 28.56%+0.40 -32.5 12
1995-07-16 @ Torpedo Riga W 1-047.2 1311 1391 28.56% 19.98% 51.45%-0.40 +32.5 10
1995-07-19 Dinaburg D 1-166.7 1422 1653 14.92% 19.36% 65.72%-1.10 +7.7 17
1995-07-19 @ Blazma D 1-166.7 1653 1422 65.72% 19.36% 14.92%+1.10 -7.7 22
1995-07-19 Kvadrats Riga W 3-244.0 1344 1111 66.72% 19.28% 14.01%+1.13 +9.5 13
1995-07-19 @ Liepaja (Old) L 2-344.0 1111 1344 14.01% 19.28% 66.72%-1.13 -9.5 4
1995-07-19 Jelgava D 1-169.2 1386 1759 7.27% 18.23% 74.50%-1.78 +10.6 14
1995-07-19 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 1-169.2 1759 1386 74.50% 18.23% 7.27%+1.78 -10.6 26
1995-07-19 Skonto L 0-344.6 1388 1924 3.09% 16.46% 80.45%-2.56 -6.5 21
1995-07-19 @ Starts Brocni W 3-044.6 1924 1388 80.45% 16.46% 3.09%+2.56 +6.5 34
1995-07-22 Liepaja (Old) W 2-040.7 1645 1353 70.76% 18.84% 10.40%+1.42 +15.1 25
1995-07-22 @ Dinaburg L 0-240.7 1353 1645 10.40% 18.84% 70.76%-1.42 -15.1 13
1995-07-22 Torpedo Riga L 0-232.0 1101 1359 13.08% 19.18% 67.74%-1.22 -18.7 4
1995-07-22 @ Kvadrats Riga W 2-032.0 1359 1101 67.74% 19.18% 13.08%+1.22 +18.7 15
1995-07-22 Blazma W 1-048.7 1930 1430 79.72% 16.75% 3.52%+2.41 +2.7 37
1995-07-22 @ Skonto L 0-148.7 1430 1930 3.52% 16.75% 79.72%-2.41 -2.7 17
1995-07-23 Starts Brocni W 3-042.6 1748 1382 74.71% 18.19% 7.11%+1.77 +15.1 29
1995-07-23 @ Jelgava L 0-342.6 1382 1748 7.11% 18.19% 74.71%-1.77 -15.1 21
1995-07-23 Skonto Metals Rinar D 1-158.2 1436 1397 46.16% 20.06% 33.78%+0.20 -1.7 9
1995-07-23 @ Olimpija Riga D 1-158.2 1397 1436 33.78% 20.06% 46.16%-0.20 +1.7 15
1995-07-26 Dinaburg W 3-049.4 1933 1661 69.50% 19.00% 11.50%+1.32 +24.1 40
1995-07-26 @ Skonto L 0-349.4 1661 1933 11.50% 19.00% 69.50%-1.32 -24.1 25
1995-07-28 Jelgava W 1-067.4 1427 1763 8.79% 18.56% 72.65%-1.60 +45.6 20
1995-07-28 @ Blazma L 0-167.4 1763 1427 72.65% 18.56% 8.79%+1.60 -45.6 29
1995-07-28 Olimpija Riga W 2-046.2 1367 1434 31.44% 20.03% 48.53%-0.31 +58.1 24
1995-07-28 @ Starts Brocni L 0-246.2 1434 1367 48.53% 20.03% 31.44%+0.31 -58.1 9
1995-07-29 Skonto D 2-278.4 1338 1957 1.99% 15.43% 82.58%-2.96 +9.5 14
1995-07-29 @ Liepaja (Old) D 2-278.4 1957 1338 82.58% 15.43% 1.99%+2.96 -9.5 41
1995-07-29 Dinaburg D 2-269.8 1377 1636 12.97% 19.17% 67.86%-1.23 +6.3 16
1995-07-29 @ Torpedo Riga D 2-269.8 1636 1377 67.86% 19.17% 12.97%+1.23 -6.3 26
1995-08-02 Liepaja (Old) D 0-062.7 1718 1348 74.88% 18.15% 6.97%+1.79 -12.0 30
1995-08-02 @ Jelgava D 0-062.7 1348 1718 6.97% 18.15% 74.88%-1.79 +12.0 15
1995-08-02 Blazma W 1-050.4 1376 1473 27.80% 19.96% 52.24%-0.45 +32.9 12
1995-08-02 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-150.4 1473 1376 52.24% 19.96% 27.80%+0.45 -32.9 20
1995-08-02 Torpedo Riga W 3-257.7 1948 1384 81.50% 15.99% 2.52%+2.72 +1.7 44
1995-08-02 @ Skonto L 2-357.7 1384 1948 2.52% 15.99% 81.50%-2.72 -1.7 16
1995-08-05 Skonto L 0-734.5 1082 1949 0.53% 12.18% 87.29%-4.15 -2.2 4
1995-08-05 @ Kvadrats Riga W 7-034.5 1949 1082 87.29% 12.18% 0.53%+4.15 +2.2 47
1995-08-05 Skonto Metals Rinar W 3-041.4 1425 1398 44.41% 20.07% 35.52%+0.14 +65.2 27
1995-08-05 @ Starts Brocni L 0-341.4 1398 1425 35.52% 20.07% 44.41%-0.14 -65.2 15
1995-08-06 Olimpija Riga W 2-044.8 1360 1409 33.81% 20.06% 46.13%-0.22 +55.6 18
1995-08-06 @ Liepaja (Old) L 0-244.8 1409 1360 46.13% 20.06% 33.81%+0.22 -55.6 12
1995-08-06 Jelgava L 1-250.3 1382 1706 9.35% 18.67% 71.98%-1.54 -6.8 16
1995-08-06 @ Torpedo Riga W 2-150.3 1706 1382 71.98% 18.67% 9.35%+1.54 +6.8 33
1995-08-19 Kvadrats Riga W 5-027.9 1712 1080 83.12% 15.12% 1.75%+3.05 +5.7 36
1995-08-19 @ Jelgava L 0-527.9 1080 1712 1.75% 15.12% 83.12%-3.05 -5.7 4
1995-08-19 Torpedo Riga L 0-739.1 1353 1375 37.62% 20.08% 42.30%-0.09 -151.2 12
1995-08-19 @ Olimpija Riga W 7-039.1 1375 1353 42.30% 20.08% 37.62%+0.09 +151.2 19
1995-08-20 Blazma L 0-836.7 1333 1440 26.64% 19.94% 53.42%-0.50 -129.1 15
1995-08-20 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 8-036.7 1440 1333 53.42% 19.94% 26.64%+0.50 +129.1 23
1995-08-26 Jelgava L 0-255.3 1630 1718 28.87% 19.99% 51.14%-0.41 -37.8 26
1995-08-26 @ Dinaburg W 2-055.3 1718 1630 51.14% 19.99% 28.87%+0.41 +37.8 39
1995-08-26 Olimpija Riga L 1-438.8 1074 1202 24.28% 19.87% 55.85%-0.60 -40.0 4
1995-08-26 @ Kvadrats Riga W 4-138.8 1202 1074 55.85% 19.87% 24.28%+0.60 +40.0 15
1995-08-27 Starts Brocni D 1-165.9 1569 1490 51.36% 19.98% 28.66%+0.39 -3.2 24
1995-08-27 @ Blazma D 1-165.9 1490 1569 28.66% 19.98% 51.36%-0.39 +3.2 28
1995-08-27 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-150.3 1415 1204 64.97% 19.42% 15.62%+1.03 -40.7 18
1995-08-27 @ Liepaja (Old) W 1-050.3 1204 1415 15.62% 19.42% 64.97%-1.03 +40.7 18
1995-08-30 Dinaburg W 1-055.9 1242 1592 8.16% 18.44% 73.40%-1.67 +46.0 18
1995-08-30 @ Olimpija Riga L 0-155.9 1592 1242 73.40% 18.44% 8.16%+1.67 -46.0 26
1995-08-30 Jelgava W 5-050.1 1951 1756 63.66% 19.51% 16.84%+0.95 +55.3 50
1995-08-30 @ Skonto L 0-550.1 1756 1951 16.84% 19.51% 63.66%-0.95 -55.3 39
1995-08-30 Torpedo Riga D 2-262.4 1245 1526 11.59% 19.01% 69.40%-1.34 +6.7 19
1995-08-30 @ Skonto Metals Rinar D 2-262.4 1526 1245 69.40% 19.01% 11.59%+1.34 -6.7 20
1995-08-30 Liepaja (Old) W 1-042.5 1493 1374 56.03% 19.86% 24.11%+0.58 +17.2 31
1995-08-30 @ Starts Brocni L 0-142.5 1374 1493 24.11% 19.86% 56.03%-0.58 -17.2 18
1995-09-02 Kvadrats Riga W 2-135.6 1546 1034 80.07% 16.62% 3.32%+2.47 +2.4 29
1995-09-02 @ Dinaburg L 1-235.6 1034 1546 3.32% 16.62% 80.07%-2.47 -2.4 4

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-09-07 Jelgava D 1-170.6 1520 1701 18.99% 19.64% 61.37%-0.86 +6.3 1
1995-09-07 @ Torpedo Riga D 1-170.6 1701 1520 61.37% 19.64% 18.99%+0.86 -6.3 1
1995-09-09 Olimpija Riga W 3-143.5 1357 1288 50.10% 20.01% 29.90%+0.34 +33.7 3
1995-09-09 @ Liepaja (Old) L 1-343.5 1288 1357 29.90% 20.01% 50.10%-0.34 -33.7 0
1995-09-09 Blazma D 1-166.5 1510 1566 33.01% 20.05% 46.94%-0.25 +1.9 1
1995-09-09 @ Starts Brocni D 1-166.5 1566 1510 46.94% 20.05% 33.01%+0.25 -1.9 1
1995-09-10 Skonto L 0-248.3 1549 2007 4.65% 17.35% 78.00%-2.19 -6.8 0
1995-09-10 @ Dinaburg W 2-048.3 2007 1549 78.00% 17.35% 4.65%+2.19 +6.8 3
1995-09-10 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-134.5 1032 1251 15.78% 19.43% 64.79%-1.04 -11.8 0
1995-09-10 @ Kvadrats Riga W 1-034.5 1251 1032 64.79% 19.43% 15.78%+1.04 +11.8 3
1995-09-16 Jelgava L 1-259.4 1564 1694 23.99% 19.86% 56.15%-0.61 -16.2 1
1995-09-16 @ Blazma W 2-159.4 1694 1564 56.15% 19.86% 23.99%+0.61 +16.2 4
1995-09-16 Olimpija Riga W 7-139.4 1263 1254 41.98% 20.08% 37.94%+0.06 +108.5 6
1995-09-16 @ Skonto Metals Rinar L 1-739.4 1254 1263 37.94% 20.08% 41.98%-0.06 -108.5 0
1995-09-16 Dinaburg L 0-152.9 1512 1542 36.53% 20.08% 43.39%-0.13 -24.4 1
1995-09-16 @ Starts Brocni W 1-052.9 1542 1512 43.39% 20.08% 36.53%+0.13 +24.4 3
1995-09-17 Liepaja (Old) W 1-051.9 1020 1391 7.34% 18.24% 74.42%-1.77 +46.7 3
1995-09-17 @ Kvadrats Riga L 0-151.9 1391 1020 74.42% 18.24% 7.34%+1.77 -46.7 3
1995-09-17 Torpedo Riga W 2-154.6 2014 1526 79.33% 16.90% 3.77%+2.35 +2.7 6
1995-09-17 @ Skonto L 1-254.6 1526 2014 3.77% 16.90% 79.33%-2.35 -2.7 1
1995-09-20 Blazma W 2-053.0 1566 1548 43.33% 20.08% 36.59%+0.10 +46.0 6
1995-09-20 @ Dinaburg L 0-253.0 1548 1566 36.59% 20.08% 43.33%-0.10 -46.0 1
1995-09-20 Skonto L 1-257.4 1711 2016 10.25% 18.82% 70.93%-1.45 -7.4 4
1995-09-20 @ Jelgava W 2-157.4 2016 1711 70.93% 18.82% 10.25%+1.45 +7.4 9
1995-09-20 Starts Brocni W 5-150.5 1523 1488 45.64% 20.06% 34.29%+0.18 +69.0 4
1995-09-20 @ Torpedo Riga L 1-550.5 1488 1523 34.29% 20.06% 45.64%-0.18 -69.0 1
1995-09-23 Skonto Metals Rinar W 1-045.0 1344 1372 36.81% 20.08% 43.11%-0.12 +27.9 6
1995-09-23 @ Liepaja (Old) L 0-145.0 1372 1344 43.11% 20.08% 36.81%+0.12 -27.9 6
1995-09-23 Jelgava W 3-061.3 1419 1703 11.44% 18.99% 69.57%-1.35 +119.4 4
1995-09-23 @ Starts Brocni L 0-361.3 1703 1419 69.57% 18.99% 11.44%+1.35 -119.4 4
1995-09-24 Torpedo Riga W 2-055.4 1612 1592 43.54% 20.08% 36.38%+0.11 +45.8 9
1995-09-24 @ Dinaburg L 0-255.4 1592 1612 36.38% 20.08% 43.54%-0.11 -45.8 4
1995-09-24 Kvadrats Riga D 2-259.1 1146 1067 51.34% 19.98% 28.67%+0.39 -2.4 1
1995-09-24 @ Olimpija Riga D 2-259.1 1067 1146 28.67% 19.98% 51.34%-0.39 +2.4 4
1995-09-24 Blazma W 8-045.2 2024 1502 80.36% 16.50% 3.14%+2.52 +16.5 12
1995-09-24 @ Skonto L 0-845.2 1502 2024 3.14% 16.50% 80.36%-2.52 -16.5 1
1995-09-30 Torpedo Riga L 2-652.7 1485 1546 32.26% 20.04% 47.70%-0.28 -55.7 1
1995-09-30 @ Blazma W 6-252.7 1546 1485 47.70% 20.04% 32.26%+0.28 +55.7 7
1995-09-30 Dinaburg L 0-156.2 1584 1658 30.57% 20.02% 49.41%-0.34 -21.1 4
1995-09-30 @ Jelgava W 1-056.2 1658 1584 49.41% 20.02% 30.57%+0.34 +21.0 12
1995-09-30 Kvadrats Riga L 1-550.6 1344 1069 69.65% 18.98% 11.37%+1.33 -130.2 6
1995-09-30 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 5-150.6 1069 1344 11.37% 18.98% 69.65%-1.33 +130.2 7
1995-09-30 Skonto L 1-451.4 1538 2040 3.70% 16.86% 79.45%-2.40 -6.6 4
1995-09-30 @ Starts Brocni W 4-151.4 2040 1538 79.45% 16.86% 3.70%+2.40 +6.6 15
1995-10-01 Liepaja (Old) D 1-154.4 1144 1372 15.08% 19.37% 65.55%-1.08 +7.7 2
1995-10-01 @ Olimpija Riga D 1-154.4 1372 1144 65.55% 19.37% 15.08%+1.08 -7.7 7
1995-10-04 Starts Brocni L 1-350.0 1430 1532 27.16% 19.95% 52.89%-0.48 -31.1 1
1995-10-04 @ Blazma W 3-150.0 1532 1430 52.89% 19.95% 27.16%+0.48 +31.1 7
1995-10-04 Torpedo Riga D 1-169.2 1563 1602 35.16% 20.07% 44.77%-0.18 +1.3 5
1995-10-04 @ Jelgava D 1-169.2 1602 1563 44.77% 20.07% 35.16%+0.18 -1.3 8
1995-10-04 Dinaburg W 4-047.1 2047 1679 74.77% 18.17% 7.05%+1.78 +19.6 18
1995-10-04 @ Skonto L 0-447.1 1679 2047 7.05% 18.17% 74.77%-1.78 -19.6 12
1995-10-14 Starts Brocni W 3-051.3 1659 1563 53.47% 19.94% 26.60%+0.48 +51.3 15
1995-10-14 @ Dinaburg L 0-351.3 1563 1659 26.60% 19.94% 53.47%-0.48 -51.3 7
1995-10-14 Blazma L 0-156.6 1564 1398 60.90% 19.66% 19.43%+0.81 -38.1 5
1995-10-14 @ Jelgava W 1-056.6 1398 1564 19.43% 19.66% 60.90%-0.81 +38.1 4
1995-10-14 Kvadrats Riga L 0-246.9 1365 1199 60.86% 19.67% 19.47%+0.80 -71.8 7
1995-10-14 @ Liepaja (Old) W 2-046.9 1199 1365 19.47% 19.67% 60.86%-0.80 +71.8 10
1995-10-14 Skonto Metals Rinar L 0-237.8 1151 1214 32.07% 20.04% 47.89%-0.29 -41.3 2
1995-10-14 @ Olimpija Riga W 2-037.8 1214 1151 47.89% 20.04% 32.07%+0.29 +41.3 9
1995-10-15 Skonto D 2-279.7 1601 2066 4.47% 17.27% 78.26%-2.22 +8.8 9
1995-10-15 @ Torpedo Riga D 2-279.7 2066 1601 78.26% 17.27% 4.47%+2.22 -8.8 19
1995-10-21 Dinaburg L 1-351.6 1437 1711 12.02% 19.06% 68.91%-1.30 -15.0 4
1995-10-21 @ Blazma W 3-151.6 1711 1437 68.91% 19.06% 12.02%+1.30 +15.0 18
1995-10-21 Olimpija Riga W 2-140.8 1271 1110 60.50% 19.68% 19.81%+0.79 +13.7 13
1995-10-21 @ Kvadrats Riga L 1-240.8 1110 1271 19.81% 19.68% 60.50%-0.79 -13.7 2
1995-10-21 Jelgava W 5-149.3 2058 1526 80.64% 16.38% 2.98%+2.57 +6.8 22
1995-10-21 @ Skonto L 1-549.3 1526 2058 2.98% 16.38% 80.64%-2.57 -6.8 5
1995-10-22 Liepaja (Old) L 1-246.1 1255 1293 35.42% 20.07% 44.51%-0.17 -22.4 9
1995-10-22 @ Skonto Metals Rinar W 2-146.1 1293 1255 44.51% 20.07% 35.42%+0.17 +22.4 10
1995-10-22 Torpedo Riga L 0-152.4 1512 1610 27.68% 19.96% 52.36%-0.46 -19.4 7
1995-10-22 @ Starts Brocni W 1-052.4 1610 1512 52.36% 19.96% 27.68%+0.46 +19.4 12
1995-10-25 Skonto L 0-345.0 1422 2064 1.75% 15.12% 83.13%-3.07 -3.6 4
1995-10-25 @ Blazma W 3-045.0 2064 1422 83.13% 15.12% 1.75%+3.07 +3.6 25
1995-10-25 Starts Brocni W 1-051.0 1519 1492 44.48% 20.07% 35.45%+0.14 +23.8 8
1995-10-25 @ Jelgava L 0-151.0 1492 1519 35.45% 20.07% 44.48%-0.14 -23.8 7
1995-10-25 Dinaburg L 1-261.8 1629 1726 27.80% 19.97% 52.23%-0.45 -18.3 12
1995-10-25 @ Torpedo Riga W 2-161.8 1726 1629 52.23% 19.97% 27.80%+0.45 +18.3 21
1995-10-29 Jelgava D 0-067.8 1744 1543 64.15% 19.47% 16.37%+0.98 -8.1 22
1995-10-29 @ Dinaburg D 0-067.8 1543 1744 16.37% 19.47% 64.15%-0.98 +8.1 9
1995-10-29 Starts Brocni W 8-145.8 2068 1469 82.37% 15.54% 2.08%+2.89 +7.8 28
1995-10-29 @ Skonto L 1-845.8 1469 2068 2.08% 15.54% 82.37%-2.89 -7.8 7
1995-10-29 Blazma W 3-042.5 1611 1418 63.40% 19.52% 17.08%+0.94 +34.8 15
1995-10-29 @ Torpedo Riga L 0-342.5 1418 1611 17.08% 19.52% 63.40%-0.94 -34.8 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-04-16 6.56% @ Starts Brocni 1046 3 Torpedo Riga 1438 0
2 1995-09-17 7.34% @ Kvadrats Riga 1020 1 Liepaja (Old) 1391 0
3 1995-08-30 8.16% @ Olimpija Riga 1242 1 Dinaburg 1592 0
4 1995-07-28 8.79% @ Blazma 1427 1 Jelgava 1763 0
5 1995-09-30 11.37% Kvadrats Riga 1069 5 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1344 1
6 1995-09-23 11.44% @ Starts Brocni 1419 3 Jelgava 1703 0
7 1995-05-14 12.46% Torpedo Riga 1297 1 @ Dinaburg 1553 0
8 1995-05-14 12.82% Starts Brocni 1280 2 @ Olimpija Riga 1531 0
9 1995-04-19 13.36% Starts Brocni 1175 3 @ Kvadrats Riga 1418 0
10 1995-07-08 13.80% @ Liepaja (Old) 1243 3 Blazma 1489 1
11 1995-08-27 15.62% Skonto Metals Rinar 1204 1 @ Liepaja (Old) 1415 0
12 1995-05-10 19.04% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1384 4 Olimpija Riga 1564 3
13 1995-10-14 19.43% Blazma 1398 1 @ Jelgava 1564 0
14 1995-10-14 19.47% Kvadrats Riga 1199 2 @ Liepaja (Old) 1365 0
15 1995-08-02 27.80% @ Olimpija Riga 1376 1 Blazma 1473 0
16 1995-07-01 28.16% @ Torpedo Riga 1327 2 Skonto Metals Rinar 1421 0
17 1995-07-16 28.56% Liepaja (Old) 1311 1 @ Torpedo Riga 1391 0
18 1995-07-12 31.16% Torpedo Riga 1362 2 @ Blazma 1421 1
19 1995-06-09 31.41% Starts Brocni 1360 3 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1417 2
20 1995-07-28 31.44% @ Starts Brocni 1367 2 Olimpija Riga 1434 0
21 1995-05-03 32.52% @ Kvadrats Riga 1278 3 Liepaja (Old) 1337 1
22 1995-05-03 32.99% Blazma 1517 2 @ Dinaburg 1562 1
23 1995-08-06 33.81% @ Liepaja (Old) 1360 2 Olimpija Riga 1409 0
24 1995-04-20 34.06% Dinaburg 1464 5 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1501 1
25 1995-09-23 36.81% @ Liepaja (Old) 1344 1 Skonto Metals Rinar 1372 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-08-19 151.23 Torpedo Riga 7 1375 42.30% @ Olimpija Riga 0 1353 37.62% 20.08%
2 1995-09-30 130.16 Kvadrats Riga 5 1069 11.37% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1344 69.65% 18.98%
3 1995-04-16 129.47 @ Starts Brocni 3 1046 6.56% Torpedo Riga 0 1438 75.41% 18.04%
4 1995-08-20 129.12 Blazma 8 1440 53.42% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1333 26.64% 19.94%
5 1995-09-23 119.43 @ Starts Brocni 3 1419 11.44% Jelgava 0 1703 69.57% 18.99%
6 1995-04-19 115.65 Starts Brocni 3 1175 13.36% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1418 67.43% 19.21%
7 1995-09-16 108.52 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 7 1263 41.98% Olimpija Riga 1 1254 37.94% 20.08%
8 1995-07-08 96.11 Skonto Metals Rinar 6 1359 54.11% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1247 25.97% 19.92%
9 1995-04-20 87.52 Dinaburg 5 1464 34.06% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1501 45.88% 20.06%
10 1995-05-14 80.36 Starts Brocni 2 1280 12.82% @ Olimpija Riga 0 1531 68.03% 19.15%
11 1995-10-14 71.82 Kvadrats Riga 2 1199 19.47% @ Liepaja (Old) 0 1365 60.86% 19.67%
12 1995-09-20 68.99 @ Torpedo Riga 5 1523 45.64% Starts Brocni 1 1488 34.29% 20.06%
13 1995-07-08 68.47 @ Liepaja (Old) 3 1243 13.80% Blazma 1 1489 66.95% 19.25%
14 1995-07-12 66.88 @ Dinaburg 4 1552 53.53% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1455 26.54% 19.93%
15 1995-08-05 65.22 @ Starts Brocni 3 1425 44.41% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1398 35.52% 20.07%
16 1995-07-01 61.70 @ Torpedo Riga 2 1327 28.16% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1421 51.86% 19.97%
17 1995-07-28 58.13 @ Starts Brocni 2 1367 31.44% Olimpija Riga 0 1434 48.53% 20.03%
18 1995-09-30 55.67 Torpedo Riga 6 1546 47.70% @ Blazma 2 1485 32.26% 20.04%
19 1995-08-06 55.62 @ Liepaja (Old) 2 1360 33.81% Olimpija Riga 0 1409 46.13% 20.06%
20 1995-08-30 55.28 @ Skonto 5 1951 63.66% Jelgava 0 1756 16.84% 19.51%
21 1995-10-14 51.28 @ Dinaburg 3 1659 53.47% Starts Brocni 0 1563 26.60% 19.94%
22 1995-04-16 51.27 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1450 38.05% Kvadrats Riga 0 1469 41.86% 20.09%
23 1995-05-03 49.34 @ Kvadrats Riga 3 1278 32.52% Liepaja (Old) 1 1337 47.43% 20.05%
24 1995-09-17 46.68 @ Kvadrats Riga 1 1020 7.34% Liepaja (Old) 0 1391 74.42% 18.24%
25 1995-08-30 46.04 @ Olimpija Riga 1 1242 8.16% Dinaburg 0 1592 73.40% 18.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-10-15 79.7 @ Torpedo Riga 2 1601 4.47% Skonto 2 2066 78.26% 17.27%
2 1995-07-29 78.4 @ Liepaja (Old) 2 1338 1.99% Skonto 2 1957 82.58% 15.43%
3 1995-05-28 71.2 @ Blazma 3 1499 47.50% Olimpija Riga 3 1450 32.46% 20.04%
4 1995-09-07 70.6 @ Torpedo Riga 1 1520 18.99% Jelgava 1 1701 61.37% 19.64%
5 1995-07-29 69.8 @ Torpedo Riga 2 1377 12.97% Dinaburg 2 1636 67.86% 19.17%
6 1995-07-19 69.2 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1386 7.27% Jelgava 1 1759 74.50% 18.23%
7 1995-10-04 69.2 @ Jelgava 1 1563 35.16% Torpedo Riga 1 1602 44.77% 20.07%
8 1995-05-10 69.1 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 4 1384 19.04% Olimpija Riga 3 1564 61.31% 19.64%
9 1995-06-09 67.8 @ Jelgava 1 1761 77.30% Torpedo Riga 1 1332 5.14% 17.56%
10 1995-10-29 67.8 @ Dinaburg 0 1744 64.15% Jelgava 0 1543 16.37% 19.47%
11 1995-07-28 67.4 @ Blazma 1 1427 8.79% Jelgava 0 1763 72.65% 18.56%
12 1995-07-19 66.7 @ Blazma 1 1422 14.92% Dinaburg 1 1653 65.72% 19.36%
13 1995-09-09 66.5 @ Starts Brocni 1 1510 33.01% Blazma 1 1566 46.94% 20.05%
14 1995-08-27 65.9 @ Blazma 1 1569 51.36% Starts Brocni 1 1490 28.66% 19.98%
15 1995-05-03 65.2 @ Skonto 0 1842 81.43% Starts Brocni 0 1281 2.55% 16.02%
16 1995-08-02 62.7 @ Jelgava 0 1718 74.88% Liepaja (Old) 0 1348 6.97% 18.15%
17 1995-08-30 62.4 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1245 11.59% Torpedo Riga 2 1526 69.40% 19.01%
18 1995-10-25 61.8 Dinaburg 2 1726 52.23% @ Torpedo Riga 1 1629 27.80% 19.97%
19 1995-05-03 61.7 Blazma 2 1517 32.99% @ Dinaburg 1 1562 46.96% 20.05%
20 1995-06-28 61.4 @ Jelgava 3 1759 67.15% Dinaburg 2 1521 13.62% 19.24%
21 1995-09-23 61.3 @ Starts Brocni 3 1419 11.44% Jelgava 0 1703 69.57% 18.99%
22 1995-06-09 61.2 @ Olimpija Riga 2 1451 63.39% Liepaja (Old) 2 1259 17.08% 19.52%
23 1995-06-18 59.8 @ Blazma 1 1498 54.86% Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1390 25.24% 19.90%
24 1995-09-16 59.4 Jelgava 2 1694 56.15% @ Blazma 1 1564 23.99% 19.86%
25 1995-09-24 59.1 @ Olimpija Riga 2 1146 51.34% Kvadrats Riga 2 1067 28.67% 19.98%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-08-19 27.9 @ Jelgava 5 1712 83.12% Kvadrats Riga 0 1080 1.75% 15.12%
2 1995-07-22 32.0 Torpedo Riga 2 1359 67.74% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1101 13.08% 19.18%
3 1995-07-12 34.0 @ Starts Brocni 1 1413 68.85% Kvadrats Riga 0 1150 12.08% 19.07%
4 1995-07-08 34.1 Skonto Metals Rinar 6 1359 54.11% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1247 25.97% 19.92%
5 1995-07-15 34.2 Blazma 5 1392 67.23% @ Kvadrats Riga 1 1141 13.54% 19.23%
6 1995-06-27 34.4 @ Olimpija Riga 3 1463 62.28% Kvadrats Riga 0 1283 18.13% 19.59%
7 1995-08-05 34.5 Skonto 7 1949 87.29% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1082 0.53% 12.18%
8 1995-09-10 34.5 Skonto Metals Rinar 1 1251 64.79% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1032 15.78% 19.43%
9 1995-09-02 35.6 @ Dinaburg 2 1546 80.07% Kvadrats Riga 1 1034 3.32% 16.62%
10 1995-05-10 36.1 Dinaburg 2 1533 66.89% @ Liepaja (Old) 0 1288 13.85% 19.26%
11 1995-04-29 36.5 @ Blazma 2 1493 63.23% Kvadrats Riga 0 1302 17.24% 19.53%
12 1995-08-20 36.7 Blazma 8 1440 53.42% @ Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1333 26.64% 19.94%
13 1995-05-10 37.2 Jelgava 4 1721 76.82% @ Starts Brocni 0 1295 5.49% 17.69%
14 1995-10-14 37.8 Skonto Metals Rinar 2 1214 47.89% @ Olimpija Riga 0 1151 32.07% 20.04%
15 1995-05-28 38.0 Dinaburg 2 1510 61.69% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1326 18.69% 19.62%
16 1995-04-29 38.2 Dinaburg 1 1552 68.02% @ Starts Brocni 0 1291 12.83% 19.15%
17 1995-06-18 38.7 Jelgava 3 1749 77.93% @ Kvadrats Riga 0 1293 4.70% 17.37%
18 1995-08-26 38.8 Olimpija Riga 4 1202 55.85% @ Kvadrats Riga 1 1074 24.28% 19.87%
19 1995-04-19 39.1 Blazma 1 1478 60.26% @ Torpedo Riga 0 1308 20.05% 19.70%
20 1995-08-19 39.1 Torpedo Riga 7 1375 42.30% @ Olimpija Riga 0 1353 37.62% 20.08%
21 1995-05-14 39.3 @ Skonto 4 1852 82.02% Liepaja (Old) 0 1268 2.26% 15.73%
22 1995-09-16 39.4 @ Skonto Metals Rinar 7 1263 41.98% Olimpija Riga 1 1254 37.94% 20.08%
23 1995-07-22 40.7 @ Dinaburg 2 1645 70.76% Liepaja (Old) 0 1353 10.40% 18.84%
24 1995-10-21 40.8 @ Kvadrats Riga 2 1271 60.50% Olimpija Riga 1 1110 19.81% 19.68%
25 1995-08-05 41.4 @ Starts Brocni 3 1425 44.41% Skonto Metals Rinar 0 1398 35.52% 20.07%