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2000 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

75 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ventspils

8.47 points above expected

65 points · 56.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

LU Daugava Rga

9.67 points below expected

12 points · 21.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 28 24 3 1 75 86 10 +76 66.71 +8.29
2 Ventspils 28 19 8 1 65 55 20 +35 56.53 +8.47
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 28 16 7 5 55 51 25 +26 54.33 +0.67
4 Dinaburg 28 10 5 13 35 32 32 0 35.00 +0.00
5 FK Riga 28 9 4 15 31 35 47 -12 34.16 -3.16
6 Valmiera 28 5 9 14 24 25 48 -23 29.74 -5.74
7 Policijas FK 28 4 4 20 16 13 62 -49 16.18 -0.18
8 LU Daugava Rga 28 2 6 20 12 21 74 -53 21.67 -9.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ventspils 65 56.53 +8.47
2 Skonto 75 66.71 +8.29
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 55 54.33 +0.67
4 Dinaburg 35 35.00 +0.00
5 Policijas FK 16 16.18 -0.18

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 LU Daugava Rga 12 21.67 -9.67
2 Valmiera 24 29.74 -5.74
3 FK Riga 31 34.16 -3.16
4 Policijas FK 16 16.18 -0.18
5 Dinaburg 35 35.00 +0.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Policijas FK 2 Sep 23 – Sep 30 1 in 105
2 Dinaburg 3 May 21 – Jun 7 1 in 52
3 Ventspils 6 Sep 17 – Oct 21 1 in 22
4 Skonto 7 Apr 8 – May 22 1 in 16
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 Jul 4 – Aug 19 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinaburg 6 Apr 8 – May 14 1 in 73
2 Policijas FK 6 Apr 22 – May 30 1 in 13
3 FK Riga 4 May 22 – Jun 11 1 in 13
4 LU Daugava Rga 6 Sep 30 – Nov 4 1 in 12
5 Skonto 1 Sep 23 – Sep 23 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ventspils 27 Apr 15 – Nov 4 1 in 614
2 Dinaburg 6 Aug 27 – Oct 10 1 in 27
3 Skonto 21 Apr 8 – Sep 18 1 in 10
4 Policijas FK 2 Sep 23 – Sep 30 1 in 10
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 9 Jun 11 – Aug 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 Aug 27 – Oct 1 1 in 113
2 LU Daugava Rga 15 Apr 30 – Aug 19 1 in 32
3 Valmiera 9 Sep 8 – Nov 4 1 in 16
4 Dinaburg 6 Apr 8 – May 14 1 in 8
5 Policijas FK 11 Apr 8 – Jun 14 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1875 75 +34 15 12.4 +2.6
Ventspils 1746 65 +17 13 11.8 +1.2
Liepajas Metalurgs 1635 55 +2 10 8.7 +1.3
Dinaburg 1492 35 +33 9 7.5 +1.5
FK Riga 1394 31 +14 7 6.7 +0.3
Valmiera 1273 24 -34 2 4.5 -2.5
Policijas FK 1150 16 -38 1 2.6 -1.6
LU Daugava Rga 1157 12 -27 0 1.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DIN FR LDR LM PF SKO VAL VEN
Dinaburg —
2-1-1
5.49
2-1-1
7.75
1-1-2
2.67
3-1-0
8.45
0-0-4
1.53
2-0-2
6.54
0-1-3
2.16
FK Riga
1-1-2
5.64
 —
3-0-1
7.61
0-0-4
2.57
4-0-0
8.36
0-0-4
1.47
1-3-0
6.09
0-0-4
2.59
LU Daugava Rga
1-1-2
3.41
1-0-3
3.55
 —
0-0-4
1.63
0-2-2
6.57
0-0-4
0.93
0-3-1
4.22
0-0-4
1.33
Liepajas Metalurgs
2-1-1
8.50
4-0-0
8.61
4-0-0
9.64
 —
3-0-1
9.91
0-1-3
3.37
3-1-0
9.24
0-4-0
5.05
Policijas FK
0-1-3
2.73
0-0-4
2.81
2-2-0
4.56
1-0-3
1.38
 —
0-0-4
0.94
1-1-2
3.70
0-0-4
1.28
Skonto
4-0-0
9.73
4-0-0
9.80
4-0-0
10.46
3-1-0
7.79
4-0-0
10.45
 —
4-0-0
9.84
1-2-1
7.81
Valmiera
2-0-2
4.59
0-3-1
5.04
1-3-0
6.92
0-1-3
1.98
2-1-1
7.45
0-0-4
1.44
 —
0-1-3
2.10
Ventspils
3-1-0
9.04
4-0-0
8.59
4-0-0
9.98
0-4-0
6.09
4-0-0
10.03
1-2-1
3.34
3-1-0
9.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +9.5
Allowed 0.92 -10.2
Differential 0.97 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%7.14%7.14%5.36%2.68%2.23%33.48%
17.14%7.14%7.59%3.57%0.89%0.89%27.23%
27.14%7.59%3.57%0.45%0.45%0.89%20.09%
35.36%3.57%0.45%0.89%—0.45%10.71%
42.68%0.89%0.45%———4.02%
5+2.23%0.89%0.89%0.45%——4.46%
Total33.48%27.23%20.09%10.71%4.02%4.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.52 1.52 2.42
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%——32.14%
17.14%10.71%17.86%3.57%——39.29%
210.71%3.57%————14.29%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total32.14%28.57%32.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 1.11 0.97 1.66
CV 0.97 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%—39.29%
1——14.29%10.71%——25.00%
27.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
33.57%—————3.57%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total21.43%25.00%28.57%14.29%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.68 -0.43
SD 1.40 1.28 2.23
CV 1.12 0.76 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%10.71%7.14%7.14%46.43%
1—10.71%14.29%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
2—7.14%3.57%—3.57%7.14%21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%25.00%25.00%14.29%10.71%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 2.64 -1.89
SD 0.80 1.97 2.13
CV 1.07 0.74 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%————17.86%
17.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
27.14%14.29%3.57%———25.00%
310.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
Total35.71%46.43%10.71%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.89 +0.93
SD 1.42 0.88 1.65
CV 0.78 0.98 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%17.86%17.86%10.71%—10.71%67.86%
110.71%3.57%——7.14%—21.43%
2—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
3—————3.57%3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%25.00%17.86%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 2.21 -1.75
SD 0.79 2.11 2.20
CV 1.71 0.95 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%—3.57%———10.71%
217.86%10.71%3.57%———32.14%
37.14%10.71%————17.86%
414.29%—————14.29%
5+17.86%—————17.86%
Total71.43%21.43%7.14%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.07 0.36 +2.71
SD 2.18 0.62 2.42
CV 0.71 1.74 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%3.57%10.71%14.29%3.57%—46.43%
110.71%7.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%35.71%
2——7.14%———7.14%
33.57%——3.57%——7.14%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total28.57%10.71%32.14%21.43%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.71 -0.82
SD 1.20 1.38 1.83
CV 1.34 0.81 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%————10.71%
114.29%10.71%————25.00%
214.29%10.71%7.14%———32.14%
310.71%10.71%—3.57%——25.00%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———3.57%——3.57%
Total50.00%35.71%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.71 +1.25
SD 1.20 0.90 1.21
CV 0.61 1.26 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1875 75 66.71 +8.29 97.0% 50 57 63 67 71 75 79
Ventspils 1746 65 56.53 +8.47 94.0% 44 47 53 56 60 66 70
Liepajas Metalurgs 1635 55 54.33 +0.67 57.0% 39 42 50 55 58 63 67
Dinaburg 1492 35 35.00 +0.00 51.0% 23 25 31 35 39 44 52
FK Riga 1394 31 34.16 -3.16 35.0% 21 26 30 33 38 43 49
Valmiera 1273 24 29.74 -5.74 22.0% 16 19 25 30 34 40 46
LU Daugava Rga 1157 12 21.67 -9.67 6.0% 8 12 18 21 25 31 35
Policijas FK 1150 16 16.18 -0.18 58.0% 3 8 13 16 19 25 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-8.04%
No Edge
35.71%20.54%43.75%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -27.98 Elo pts.
170 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.20 goals
Neutral
-2-0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
83%
Skonto, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.320.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.57 * Some Luck: 4.57 to 6.86 * Lucky: 6.86 to 9.15 * Wild Swing: 9.15 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.42 * Close: 0.42 to 0.63 * Off: 0.63 to 0.83 * Way Off: 0.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.89 points
Some Luck
05.7214
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.521.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Skonto
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
LU Daugava Rga
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.31
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 270.79
3.25
Wide Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
92%
Wide Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Some Drama
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Occasional
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.95
Near-Lock
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
7%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
<0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skonto83.00%13.00%4.00%—————
Ventspils10.00%51.00%39.00%—————
Liepajas Metalurgs7.00%36.00%52.00%5.00%————
Dinaburg——4.00%45.00%31.00%16.00%4.00%—
FK Riga———33.00%39.00%25.00%3.00%—
Valmiera——1.00%16.00%22.00%45.00%13.00%3.00%
Policijas FK————1.00%3.00%25.00%71.00%
LU Daugava Rga———1.00%7.00%11.00%55.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinaburg 100% —
FK Riga 100% —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Ventspils 100% —
Valmiera 97.00% 3.00%
LU Daugava Rga 74.00% 26.00%
Policijas FK 29.00% 71.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2000-04-08 FK Riga L 1-253.6 1441 1402 44.62% 21.74% 33.64%+0.07 -21.2 0
2000-04-08 @ Dinaburg W 2-153.6 1402 1441 33.64% 21.74% 44.62%-0.07 +21.2 3
2000-04-08 Policijas FK W 1-037.9 1570 1277 69.74% 19.83% 10.43%+1.55 +6.3 3
2000-04-08 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-137.9 1277 1570 10.43% 19.83% 69.74%-1.55 -6.3 0
2000-04-08 Valmiera D 2-262.4 1387 1399 37.49% 21.77% 40.74%-0.23 +0.3 1
2000-04-08 @ LU Daugava Rga D 2-262.4 1399 1387 40.74% 21.77% 37.49%+0.23 -0.2 1
2000-04-08 Skonto L 0-154.5 1559 1686 23.09% 21.39% 55.53%-0.91 -13.1 0
2000-04-08 @ Ventspils W 1-054.5 1686 1559 55.53% 21.39% 23.09%+0.91 +13.1 3
2000-04-15 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-349.3 1420 1576 20.20% 21.20% 58.60%-1.08 -19.1 0
2000-04-15 @ Dinaburg W 3-149.3 1576 1420 58.60% 21.20% 20.20%+1.08 +19.1 6
2000-04-15 LU Daugava Rga D 0-051.0 1271 1388 24.22% 21.45% 54.33%-0.85 +3.8 1
2000-04-15 @ Policijas FK D 0-051.0 1388 1271 54.33% 21.45% 24.22%+0.85 -3.8 2
2000-04-15 Skonto L 0-342.5 1399 1699 10.01% 19.73% 70.26%-1.93 -16.7 1
2000-04-15 @ Valmiera W 3-042.5 1699 1399 70.26% 19.73% 10.01%+1.93 +16.7 6
2000-04-15 FK Riga W 2-151.3 1546 1423 55.01% 21.42% 23.58%+0.55 +12.6 3
2000-04-15 @ Ventspils L 1-251.3 1423 1546 23.58% 21.42% 55.01%-0.55 -12.6 3
2000-04-22 FK Riga W 2-043.6 1595 1410 61.37% 20.97% 17.66%+0.92 +19.6 9
2000-04-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-243.6 1410 1595 17.66% 20.97% 61.37%-0.92 -19.6 3
2000-04-22 Skonto L 0-535.3 1275 1716 4.92% 17.67% 77.41%-2.75 -13.1 1
2000-04-22 @ Policijas FK W 5-035.3 1716 1275 77.41% 17.67% 4.92%+2.75 +13.1 9
2000-04-22 Dinaburg W 2-151.3 1384 1401 36.73% 21.77% 41.50%-0.26 +20.0 5
2000-04-22 @ LU Daugava Rga L 1-251.3 1401 1384 41.50% 21.77% 36.73%+0.26 -20.0 0
2000-04-22 Valmiera W 3-039.7 1558 1382 60.58% 21.04% 18.38%+0.87 +29.5 6
2000-04-22 @ Ventspils L 0-339.7 1382 1558 18.38% 21.04% 60.58%-0.87 -29.5 1
2000-04-30 Skonto L 1-251.0 1381 1729 7.88% 19.08% 73.04%-2.21 -4.5 0
2000-04-30 @ Dinaburg W 2-151.0 1729 1381 73.04% 19.08% 7.88%+2.21 +4.5 12
2000-04-30 LU Daugava Rga W 5-249.3 1615 1404 63.68% 20.73% 15.58%+1.07 +18.5 12
2000-04-30 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-549.3 1404 1615 15.58% 20.73% 63.68%-1.07 -18.5 5
2000-04-30 Ventspils L 0-137.3 1262 1588 8.82% 19.39% 71.79%-2.08 -5.4 1
2000-04-30 @ Policijas FK W 1-037.3 1588 1262 71.79% 19.39% 8.82%+2.08 +5.4 9
2000-04-30 FK Riga D 0-052.1 1352 1391 33.76% 21.74% 44.50%-0.39 +1.3 2
2000-04-30 @ Valmiera D 0-052.1 1391 1352 44.50% 21.74% 33.76%+0.39 -1.3 4
2000-05-06 Skonto L 1-360.1 1633 1733 26.06% 21.54% 52.41%-0.75 -23.8 12
2000-05-06 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 3-160.1 1733 1633 52.41% 21.54% 26.06%+0.75 +23.8 15
2000-05-06 FK Riga L 0-341.3 1385 1390 38.52% 21.78% 39.70%-0.19 -54.8 5
2000-05-06 @ LU Daugava Rga W 3-041.3 1390 1385 39.70% 21.78% 38.52%+0.19 +54.8 7
2000-05-06 Policijas FK W 1-039.4 1354 1256 52.06% 21.55% 26.39%+0.41 +14.7 5
2000-05-06 @ Valmiera L 0-139.4 1256 1354 26.39% 21.55% 52.06%-0.41 -14.7 1
2000-05-06 Dinaburg W 2-041.4 1593 1376 64.19% 20.67% 15.13%+1.11 +17.0 12
2000-05-06 @ Ventspils L 0-241.4 1376 1593 15.13% 20.67% 64.19%-1.11 -17.0 0
2000-05-14 Valmiera L 0-144.1 1359 1368 37.79% 21.77% 40.43%-0.22 -19.7 0
2000-05-14 @ Dinaburg W 1-044.1 1368 1359 40.43% 21.77% 37.79%+0.22 +19.7 8
2000-05-14 Policijas FK W 2-034.6 1444 1242 62.97% 20.81% 16.22%+1.02 +18.1 10
2000-05-14 @ FK Riga L 0-234.6 1242 1444 16.22% 20.81% 62.97%-1.02 -18.1 1
2000-05-14 Ventspils D 1-170.5 1610 1610 39.03% 21.78% 39.19%-0.17 +0.0 13
2000-05-14 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-170.5 1610 1610 39.19% 21.78% 39.03%+0.17 -0.0 13
2000-05-14 Skonto L 0-939.8 1331 1757 5.30% 17.90% 76.80%-2.67 -24.7 5
2000-05-14 @ LU Daugava Rga W 9-039.8 1757 1331 76.80% 17.90% 5.30%+2.67 +24.7 18
2000-05-21 Dinaburg L 0-236.2 1224 1339 24.30% 21.45% 54.25%-0.84 -25.9 1
2000-05-21 @ Policijas FK W 2-036.2 1339 1224 54.25% 21.45% 24.30%+0.84 +25.9 3
2000-05-22 Skonto L 1-352.9 1462 1782 9.11% 19.48% 71.41%-2.04 -9.1 10
2000-05-22 @ FK Riga W 3-152.9 1782 1462 71.41% 19.48% 9.11%+2.04 +9.1 21
2000-05-22 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-340.6 1388 1610 14.80% 20.63% 64.57%-1.46 -24.2 8
2000-05-22 @ Valmiera W 3-040.6 1610 1388 64.57% 20.63% 14.80%+1.46 +24.2 16
2000-05-22 LU Daugava Rga W 4-035.0 1610 1306 70.48% 19.68% 9.84%+1.62 +21.4 16
2000-05-22 @ Ventspils L 0-435.0 1306 1610 9.84% 19.68% 70.48%-1.62 -21.4 5
2000-05-30 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-233.0 1198 1634 5.05% 17.75% 77.20%-2.72 -5.7 1
2000-05-30 @ Policijas FK W 2-033.0 1634 1198 77.20% 17.75% 5.05%+2.72 +5.7 19
2000-05-30 Ventspils D 2-278.4 1791 1632 58.92% 21.17% 19.91%+0.77 -3.4 22
2000-05-30 @ Skonto D 2-278.4 1632 1791 19.91% 21.17% 58.92%-0.77 +3.3 17
2000-05-30 LU Daugava Rga W 5-244.1 1364 1285 49.87% 21.62% 28.51%+0.30 +31.4 11
2000-05-30 @ Valmiera L 2-544.1 1285 1364 28.51% 21.62% 49.87%-0.30 -31.4 5
2000-05-31 Dinaburg L 1-254.8 1453 1365 50.94% 21.59% 27.47%+0.35 -23.8 10
2000-05-31 @ FK Riga W 2-154.8 1365 1453 27.47% 21.59% 50.94%-0.35 +23.8 6
2000-06-05 Ventspils L 1-350.5 1430 1635 16.00% 20.79% 63.21%-1.37 -15.5 10
2000-06-05 @ FK Riga W 3-150.5 1635 1430 63.21% 20.79% 16.00%+1.37 +15.5 20
2000-06-06 Policijas FK D 1-154.1 1253 1192 47.54% 21.69% 30.77%+0.19 -1.8 6
2000-06-06 @ LU Daugava Rga D 1-154.1 1192 1253 30.77% 21.69% 47.54%-0.19 +1.8 2
2000-06-07 Dinaburg L 0-161.2 1640 1389 66.83% 20.33% 12.85%+1.30 -32.7 19
2000-06-07 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-061.2 1389 1640 12.85% 20.33% 66.83%-1.30 +32.7 9
2000-06-07 Skonto L 1-252.4 1395 1788 6.30% 18.43% 75.26%-2.47 -3.6 11
2000-06-07 @ Valmiera W 2-152.4 1788 1395 75.26% 18.43% 6.30%+2.47 +3.6 25
2000-06-10 LU Daugava Rga D 1-155.5 1422 1251 60.02% 21.09% 18.89%+0.84 -4.8 10
2000-06-10 @ Dinaburg D 1-155.5 1251 1422 18.89% 21.09% 60.02%-0.84 +4.8 7
2000-06-10 Policijas FK W 2-036.4 1791 1194 82.80% 14.99% 2.21%+3.34 +2.4 28
2000-06-10 @ Skonto L 0-236.4 1194 1791 2.21% 14.99% 82.80%-3.34 -2.4 2
2000-06-10 Ventspils L 0-243.1 1392 1650 12.33% 20.23% 67.44%-1.68 -14.0 11
2000-06-10 @ Valmiera W 2-043.1 1650 1392 67.44% 20.23% 12.33%+1.68 +14.0 23
2000-06-11 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-441.3 1414 1607 17.00% 20.90% 62.10%-1.29 -35.9 10
2000-06-11 @ FK Riga W 4-041.3 1607 1414 62.10% 20.90% 17.00%+1.29 +35.9 22
2000-06-13 Dinaburg W 3-044.3 1794 1417 74.49% 18.67% 6.83%+2.04 +11.4 31
2000-06-13 @ Skonto L 0-344.3 1417 1794 6.83% 18.67% 74.49%-2.04 -11.4 10
2000-06-14 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-334.0 1256 1643 6.49% 18.52% 74.99%-2.43 -10.8 7
2000-06-14 @ LU Daugava Rga W 3-034.0 1643 1256 74.99% 18.52% 6.49%+2.43 +10.8 25
2000-06-14 Policijas FK W 5-344.3 1664 1191 78.68% 17.14% 4.18%+2.61 +3.5 26
2000-06-14 @ Ventspils L 3-544.3 1191 1664 4.18% 17.14% 78.68%-2.61 -3.4 2
2000-06-16 Valmiera D 0-052.3 1378 1378 39.18% 21.78% 39.04%-0.16 -0.0 11
2000-06-16 @ FK Riga D 0-052.3 1378 1378 39.04% 21.78% 39.18%+0.16 +0.0 12
2000-06-21 Valmiera W 1-049.5 1188 1378 17.25% 20.93% 61.82%-1.28 +30.3 5
2000-06-21 @ Policijas FK L 0-149.5 1378 1188 61.82% 20.93% 17.25%+1.28 -30.3 12
2000-06-21 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-069.0 1805 1654 58.11% 21.23% 20.66%+0.72 -4.8 32
2000-06-21 @ Skonto D 0-069.0 1654 1805 20.66% 21.23% 58.11%-0.72 +4.8 26
2000-06-22 FK Riga L 1-243.3 1245 1378 22.51% 21.35% 56.14%-0.94 -12.1 7
2000-06-22 @ LU Daugava Rga W 2-143.3 1378 1245 56.14% 21.35% 22.51%+0.94 +12.1 14
2000-06-28 LU Daugava Rga W 4-035.8 1800 1233 81.89% 15.53% 2.58%+3.16 +5.3 35
2000-06-28 @ Skonto L 0-435.8 1233 1800 2.58% 15.53% 81.89%-3.16 -5.3 7
2000-06-28 Dinaburg W 1-047.3 1347 1406 31.13% 21.69% 47.18%-0.51 +23.6 15
2000-06-28 @ Valmiera L 0-147.3 1406 1347 47.18% 21.69% 31.13%+0.51 -23.6 10
2000-06-28 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-067.9 1668 1658 40.48% 21.77% 37.74%-0.11 -0.3 27
2000-06-28 @ Ventspils D 0-067.9 1658 1668 37.74% 21.77% 40.48%+0.11 +0.3 27
2000-06-29 FK Riga L 1-437.9 1218 1390 18.77% 21.08% 60.16%-1.17 -25.3 5
2000-06-29 @ Policijas FK W 4-137.9 1390 1218 60.16% 21.08% 18.77%+1.17 +25.3 17
2000-07-04 Valmiera W 2-149.3 1659 1371 69.44% 19.89% 10.68%+1.52 +6.1 30
2000-07-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-249.3 1371 1659 10.68% 19.89% 69.44%-1.52 -6.1 15
2000-07-04 FK Riga W 4-043.4 1806 1416 75.15% 18.47% 6.38%+2.12 +13.9 38
2000-07-04 @ Skonto L 0-443.4 1416 1806 6.38% 18.47% 75.15%-2.12 -13.9 17
2000-07-04 Ventspils L 0-333.1 1228 1668 4.95% 17.69% 77.36%-2.74 -8.2 7
2000-07-04 @ LU Daugava Rga W 3-033.1 1668 1228 77.36% 17.69% 4.95%+2.74 +8.2 30
2000-07-08 Ventspils D 0-069.2 1819 1676 57.30% 21.28% 21.42%+0.68 -4.6 39
2000-07-08 @ Skonto D 0-069.2 1676 1819 21.42% 21.28% 57.30%-0.68 +4.6 31
2000-07-08 Valmiera D 1-154.7 1220 1365 21.27% 21.27% 57.46%-1.02 +4.1 8
2000-07-08 @ LU Daugava Rga D 1-154.7 1365 1220 57.46% 21.27% 21.27%+1.02 -4.1 16
2000-07-09 Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-345.3 1193 1665 4.21% 17.16% 78.63%-2.93 -2.2 5
2000-07-09 @ Policijas FK W 3-245.3 1665 1193 78.63% 17.16% 4.21%+2.93 +2.2 33
2000-07-15 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-250.0 1382 1667 10.83% 19.92% 69.25%-1.83 -6.2 10
2000-07-15 @ Dinaburg W 2-150.0 1667 1382 69.25% 19.92% 10.83%+1.83 +6.2 36
2000-07-15 Ventspils L 0-244.1 1402 1680 11.17% 20.00% 68.83%-1.80 -12.8 17
2000-07-15 @ FK Riga W 2-044.1 1680 1402 68.83% 20.00% 11.17%+1.80 +12.8 34
2000-07-15 Valmiera W 4-041.6 1815 1361 77.94% 17.45% 4.60%+2.50 +9.9 42
2000-07-15 @ Skonto L 0-441.6 1361 1815 4.60% 17.45% 77.94%-2.50 -9.9 16
2000-07-16 LU Daugava Rga W 1-043.9 1191 1224 34.48% 21.75% 43.77%-0.36 +22.2 8
2000-07-16 @ Policijas FK L 0-143.9 1224 1191 43.77% 21.75% 34.48%+0.36 -22.2 8
2000-07-22 Dinaburg L 2-443.6 1202 1376 18.56% 21.06% 60.38%-1.19 -15.9 8
2000-07-22 @ LU Daugava Rga W 4-243.6 1376 1202 60.38% 21.06% 18.56%+1.19 +15.9 13
2000-07-25 Ventspils L 0-145.9 1392 1693 9.98% 19.72% 70.31%-1.93 -6.1 13
2000-07-25 @ Dinaburg W 1-045.9 1693 1392 70.31% 19.72% 9.98%+1.93 +6.1 37
2000-07-30 FK Riga D 0-052.6 1386 1389 38.66% 21.78% 39.57%-0.18 +0.1 14
2000-07-30 @ Dinaburg D 0-052.6 1389 1386 39.57% 21.78% 38.66%+0.18 -0.1 18
2000-07-30 Valmiera D 3-375.6 1699 1351 73.04% 19.08% 7.88%+1.88 -4.9 38
2000-07-30 @ Ventspils D 3-375.6 1351 1699 7.88% 19.08% 73.04%-1.88 +4.9 17
2000-08-04 FK Riga W 3-041.6 1673 1389 69.22% 19.93% 10.85%+1.50 +18.1 39
2000-08-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-341.6 1389 1673 10.85% 19.93% 69.22%-1.50 -18.1 18
2000-08-05 Skonto L 0-835.9 1213 1825 2.05% 14.74% 83.22%-3.75 -8.0 8
2000-08-05 @ Policijas FK W 8-035.9 1825 1213 83.22% 14.74% 2.05%+3.75 +8.0 45
2000-08-11 Policijas FK D 0-050.6 1386 1205 61.01% 21.00% 17.98%+0.90 -5.6 15
2000-08-11 @ Dinaburg D 0-050.6 1205 1386 17.98% 21.00% 61.01%-0.90 +5.6 9
2000-08-18 Ventspils L 0-136.8 1210 1694 3.96% 16.96% 79.08%-3.00 -2.4 9
2000-08-18 @ Policijas FK W 1-036.8 1694 1210 79.08% 16.96% 3.96%+3.00 +2.3 41
2000-08-19 LU Daugava Rga W 5-134.8 1691 1186 79.87% 16.59% 3.54%+2.80 +6.2 42
2000-08-19 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-534.8 1186 1691 3.54% 16.59% 79.87%-2.80 -6.2 8
2000-08-19 FK Riga L 1-543.0 1356 1371 36.98% 21.77% 41.25%-0.25 -57.7 17
2000-08-19 @ Valmiera W 5-143.0 1371 1356 41.25% 21.77% 36.98%+0.25 +57.7 21
2000-08-20 Skonto L 0-245.1 1380 1833 4.64% 17.48% 77.87%-2.82 -5.3 15
2000-08-20 @ Dinaburg W 2-045.1 1833 1380 77.87% 17.48% 4.64%+2.82 +5.3 48
2000-08-26 Policijas FK W 3-035.2 1298 1208 51.18% 21.58% 27.24%+0.36 +41.4 20
2000-08-26 @ Valmiera L 0-335.2 1208 1298 27.24% 21.58% 51.18%-0.36 -41.4 9
2000-08-27 LU Daugava Rga L 1-256.1 1428 1180 66.72% 20.34% 12.94%+1.30 -30.8 21
2000-08-27 @ FK Riga W 2-156.1 1180 1428 12.94% 20.34% 66.72%-1.30 +30.8 11
2000-08-27 Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-056.5 1838 1697 56.96% 21.30% 21.73%+0.66 +12.5 51
2000-08-27 @ Skonto L 0-156.5 1697 1838 21.73% 21.30% 56.96%-0.66 -12.5 42
2000-08-27 Dinaburg D 1-167.0 1697 1375 71.54% 19.45% 9.01%+1.72 -7.6 42
2000-08-27 @ Ventspils D 1-167.0 1375 1697 9.01% 19.45% 71.54%-1.72 +7.6 16
2000-09-07 Skonto L 0-536.0 1210 1850 1.77% 14.24% 83.99%-3.92 -4.4 11
2000-09-07 @ LU Daugava Rga W 5-036.0 1850 1210 83.99% 14.24% 1.77%+3.92 +4.4 54
2000-09-08 Valmiera W 2-040.5 1383 1339 45.15% 21.73% 33.12%+0.09 +33.4 19
2000-09-08 @ Dinaburg L 0-240.5 1339 1383 33.12% 21.73% 45.15%-0.09 -33.4 20
2000-09-08 Policijas FK W 4-136.0 1398 1167 65.34% 20.53% 14.13%+1.19 +19.6 24
2000-09-08 @ FK Riga L 1-436.0 1167 1398 14.13% 20.53% 65.34%-1.19 -19.6 9
2000-09-08 Ventspils D 1-172.6 1685 1689 38.55% 21.78% 39.68%-0.19 +0.1 43
2000-09-08 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-172.6 1689 1685 39.68% 21.78% 38.55%+0.19 -0.1 43
2000-09-17 Dinaburg L 0-330.4 1147 1416 11.72% 20.11% 68.17%-1.74 -19.5 9
2000-09-17 @ Policijas FK W 3-030.4 1416 1147 68.17% 20.11% 11.72%+1.74 +19.4 22
2000-09-17 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-164.3 1306 1685 6.74% 18.63% 74.63%-2.39 +8.3 21
2000-09-17 @ Valmiera D 1-164.3 1685 1306 74.63% 18.63% 6.74%+2.39 -8.3 44
2000-09-17 LU Daugava Rga W 2-034.3 1689 1206 79.05% 16.98% 3.98%+2.67 +4.5 46
2000-09-17 @ Ventspils L 0-234.3 1206 1689 3.98% 16.98% 79.05%-2.67 -4.5 11
2000-09-18 Skonto L 0-443.7 1417 1855 5.01% 17.72% 77.27%-2.73 -10.8 24
2000-09-18 @ FK Riga W 4-043.7 1855 1417 77.27% 17.72% 5.01%+2.73 +10.8 57
2000-09-23 Dinaburg L 0-145.7 1406 1436 35.03% 21.76% 43.22%-0.33 -18.5 24
2000-09-23 @ FK Riga W 1-045.7 1436 1406 43.22% 21.76% 35.03%+0.33 +18.5 25
2000-09-23 Policijas FK L 0-156.9 1677 1128 81.33% 15.84% 2.83%+3.06 -38.8 44
2000-09-23 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-056.9 1128 1677 2.83% 15.84% 81.33%-3.06 +38.8 12
2000-09-23 LU Daugava Rga D 0-050.1 1314 1202 53.89% 21.47% 24.64%+0.50 -3.7 22
2000-09-23 @ Valmiera D 0-050.1 1202 1314 24.64% 21.47% 53.89%-0.50 +3.7 12
2000-09-23 Skonto W 2-173.1 1693 1866 18.74% 21.07% 60.19%-1.17 +27.8 49
2000-09-23 @ Ventspils L 1-273.1 1866 1693 60.19% 21.07% 18.74%+1.17 -27.8 57
2000-09-30 Valmiera W 2-042.7 1838 1311 80.61% 16.22% 3.17%+2.93 +3.5 60
2000-09-30 @ Skonto L 0-242.7 1311 1838 3.17% 16.22% 80.61%-2.93 -3.5 22
2000-09-30 Policijas FK L 1-249.0 1205 1167 44.53% 21.74% 33.73%+0.06 -21.2 12
2000-09-30 @ LU Daugava Rga W 2-149.0 1167 1205 33.73% 21.74% 44.53%-0.06 +21.2 15
2000-10-01 Dinaburg D 1-167.3 1638 1454 61.29% 20.98% 17.73%+0.91 -5.1 45
2000-10-01 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-167.3 1454 1638 17.73% 20.98% 61.29%-0.91 +5.1 26
2000-10-01 FK Riga W 3-149.3 1721 1388 72.21% 19.29% 8.50%+1.79 +8.5 52
2000-10-01 @ Ventspils L 1-349.3 1388 1721 8.50% 19.29% 72.21%-1.79 -8.5 24
2000-10-10 LU Daugava Rga W 2-032.5 1459 1184 68.60% 20.04% 11.36%+1.45 +13.0 29
2000-10-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-232.5 1184 1459 11.36% 20.04% 68.60%-1.45 -13.0 12
2000-10-10 Policijas FK W 7-035.0 1841 1188 84.35% 14.00% 1.65%+3.67 +5.6 63
2000-10-10 @ Skonto L 0-735.0 1188 1841 1.65% 14.00% 84.35%-3.67 -5.6 15
2000-10-11 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-249.3 1379 1633 12.65% 20.29% 67.06%-1.65 -7.2 24
2000-10-11 @ FK Riga W 2-149.3 1633 1379 67.06% 20.29% 12.65%+1.65 +7.2 48
2000-10-11 Ventspils L 0-338.5 1307 1730 5.41% 17.97% 76.62%-2.64 -9.0 22
2000-10-11 @ Valmiera W 3-038.5 1730 1307 76.62% 17.97% 5.41%+2.64 +9.0 55
2000-10-14 Dinaburg W 2-047.8 1847 1472 74.41% 18.70% 6.89%+2.03 +7.9 66
2000-10-14 @ Skonto L 0-247.8 1472 1847 6.89% 18.70% 74.41%-2.03 -7.9 29
2000-10-15 Valmiera D 2-260.6 1372 1298 49.20% 21.64% 29.16%+0.27 -1.6 25
2000-10-15 @ FK Riga D 2-260.6 1298 1372 29.16% 21.64% 49.20%-0.27 +1.6 23
2000-10-15 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-134.3 1171 1640 4.27% 17.21% 78.53%-2.92 -2.5 12
2000-10-15 @ LU Daugava Rga W 1-034.3 1640 1171 78.53% 17.21% 4.27%+2.92 +2.6 51
2000-10-15 Policijas FK W 1-036.6 1739 1182 81.56% 15.71% 2.73%+3.10 +1.6 58
2000-10-15 @ Ventspils L 0-136.6 1182 1739 2.73% 15.71% 81.56%-3.10 -1.6 15
2000-10-21 Ventspils L 1-254.8 1464 1740 11.32% 20.03% 68.65%-1.78 -6.5 29
2000-10-21 @ Dinaburg W 2-154.8 1740 1464 68.65% 20.03% 11.32%+1.78 +6.5 61
2000-10-21 LU Daugava Rga W 2-140.7 1371 1168 62.93% 20.82% 16.25%+1.02 +9.1 28
2000-10-21 @ FK Riga L 1-240.7 1168 1371 16.25% 20.82% 62.93%-1.02 -9.1 12
2000-10-22 Skonto L 1-357.4 1643 1855 15.49% 20.72% 63.79%-1.41 -15.1 51
2000-10-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 3-157.4 1855 1643 63.79% 20.72% 15.49%+1.41 +15.0 69
2000-10-22 Valmiera D 0-050.0 1181 1300 23.94% 21.44% 54.63%-0.86 +3.9 16
2000-10-22 @ Policijas FK D 0-050.0 1300 1181 54.63% 21.44% 23.94%+0.86 -3.9 24
2000-10-28 FK Riga L 0-233.8 1184 1380 16.80% 20.88% 62.32%-1.31 -18.7 16
2000-10-28 @ Policijas FK W 2-033.8 1380 1184 62.32% 20.88% 16.80%+1.31 +18.7 31
2000-10-28 Dinaburg L 1-342.0 1296 1458 19.69% 21.15% 59.16%-1.11 -18.7 24
2000-10-28 @ Valmiera W 3-142.0 1458 1296 59.16% 21.15% 19.69%+1.11 +18.7 32
2000-10-28 Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-278.0 1747 1628 54.60% 21.44% 23.96%+0.53 -2.6 62
2000-10-28 @ Ventspils D 2-278.0 1628 1747 23.96% 21.44% 54.60%-0.53 +2.6 52
2000-10-29 LU Daugava Rga W 2-144.3 1870 1159 85.77% 13.00% 1.23%+4.00 +0.6 72
2000-10-29 @ Skonto L 1-244.3 1159 1870 1.23% 13.00% 85.77%-4.00 -0.6 12
2000-11-04 Policijas FK W 3-030.1 1476 1166 70.89% 19.59% 9.52%+1.66 +15.9 35
2000-11-04 @ Dinaburg L 0-330.1 1166 1476 9.52% 19.59% 70.89%-1.66 -15.9 16
2000-11-04 Valmiera W 2-143.7 1630 1277 73.29% 19.02% 7.70%+1.91 +4.4 55
2000-11-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-243.7 1277 1630 7.70% 19.02% 73.29%-1.91 -4.4 24
2000-11-04 FK Riga W 2-045.8 1870 1398 78.64% 17.16% 4.20%+2.60 +4.7 75
2000-11-04 @ Skonto L 0-245.8 1398 1870 4.20% 17.16% 78.64%-2.60 -4.7 31
2000-11-04 Ventspils L 1-338.8 1159 1744 2.35% 15.20% 82.45%-3.60 -2.2 12
2000-11-04 @ LU Daugava Rga W 3-138.8 1744 1159 82.45% 15.20% 2.35%+3.60 +2.2 65

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-09-23 2.83% Policijas FK 1128 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1677 0
2 2000-06-07 12.85% Dinaburg 1389 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1640 0
3 2000-08-27 12.94% LU Daugava Rga 1180 2 @ FK Riga 1428 1
4 2000-06-21 17.25% @ Policijas FK 1188 1 Valmiera 1378 0
5 2000-09-23 18.74% @ Ventspils 1693 2 Skonto 1866 1
6 2000-05-31 27.47% Dinaburg 1365 2 @ FK Riga 1453 1
7 2000-06-28 31.13% @ Valmiera 1347 1 Dinaburg 1406 0
8 2000-04-08 33.64% FK Riga 1402 2 @ Dinaburg 1441 1
9 2000-09-30 33.73% Policijas FK 1167 2 @ LU Daugava Rga 1205 1
10 2000-07-16 34.48% @ Policijas FK 1191 1 LU Daugava Rga 1224 0
11 2000-04-22 36.73% @ LU Daugava Rga 1384 2 Dinaburg 1401 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-08-19 57.74 FK Riga 5 1371 41.25% @ Valmiera 1 1356 36.98% 21.77%
2 2000-05-06 54.77 FK Riga 3 1390 39.70% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1385 38.52% 21.78%
3 2000-08-26 41.40 @ Valmiera 3 1298 51.18% Policijas FK 0 1208 27.24% 21.58%
4 2000-09-23 38.83 Policijas FK 1 1128 2.83% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1677 81.33% 15.84%
5 2000-06-11 35.91 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1607 62.10% @ FK Riga 0 1414 17.00% 20.90%
6 2000-09-08 33.44 @ Dinaburg 2 1383 45.15% Valmiera 0 1339 33.12% 21.73%
7 2000-06-07 32.74 Dinaburg 1 1389 12.85% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1640 66.83% 20.33%
8 2000-05-30 31.39 @ Valmiera 5 1364 49.87% LU Daugava Rga 2 1285 28.51% 21.62%
9 2000-08-27 30.82 LU Daugava Rga 2 1180 12.94% @ FK Riga 1 1428 66.72% 20.34%
10 2000-06-21 30.31 @ Policijas FK 1 1188 17.25% Valmiera 0 1378 61.82% 20.93%
11 2000-04-22 29.49 @ Ventspils 3 1558 60.58% Valmiera 0 1382 18.38% 21.04%
12 2000-09-23 27.84 @ Ventspils 2 1693 18.74% Skonto 1 1866 60.19% 21.07%
13 2000-05-21 25.89 Dinaburg 2 1339 54.25% @ Policijas FK 0 1224 24.30% 21.45%
14 2000-06-29 25.33 FK Riga 4 1390 60.16% @ Policijas FK 1 1218 18.77% 21.08%
15 2000-05-14 24.66 Skonto 9 1757 76.80% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1331 5.30% 17.90%
16 2000-05-22 24.21 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1610 64.57% @ Valmiera 0 1388 14.80% 20.63%
17 2000-05-31 23.81 Dinaburg 2 1365 27.47% @ FK Riga 1 1453 50.94% 21.59%
18 2000-05-06 23.78 Skonto 3 1733 52.41% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1633 26.06% 21.54%
19 2000-06-28 23.61 @ Valmiera 1 1347 31.13% Dinaburg 0 1406 47.18% 21.69%
20 2000-07-16 22.16 @ Policijas FK 1 1191 34.48% LU Daugava Rga 0 1224 43.77% 21.75%
21 2000-05-22 21.43 @ Ventspils 4 1610 70.48% LU Daugava Rga 0 1306 9.84% 19.68%
22 2000-04-08 21.23 FK Riga 2 1402 33.64% @ Dinaburg 1 1441 44.62% 21.74%
23 2000-09-30 21.20 Policijas FK 2 1167 33.73% @ LU Daugava Rga 1 1205 44.53% 21.74%
24 2000-04-22 20.00 @ LU Daugava Rga 2 1384 36.73% Dinaburg 1 1401 41.50% 21.77%
25 2000-05-14 19.70 Valmiera 1 1368 40.43% @ Dinaburg 0 1359 37.79% 21.77%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-05-30 78.4 @ Skonto 2 1791 58.92% Ventspils 2 1632 19.91% 21.17%
2 2000-10-28 78.0 @ Ventspils 2 1747 54.60% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1628 23.96% 21.44%
3 2000-07-30 75.6 @ Ventspils 3 1699 73.04% Valmiera 3 1351 7.88% 19.08%
4 2000-09-23 73.1 @ Ventspils 2 1693 18.74% Skonto 1 1866 60.19% 21.07%
5 2000-09-08 72.6 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1685 38.55% Ventspils 1 1689 39.68% 21.78%
6 2000-05-14 70.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1610 39.03% Ventspils 1 1610 39.19% 21.78%
7 2000-07-08 69.2 @ Skonto 0 1819 57.30% Ventspils 0 1676 21.42% 21.28%
8 2000-06-21 69.0 @ Skonto 0 1805 58.11% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1654 20.66% 21.23%
9 2000-06-28 67.9 @ Ventspils 0 1668 40.48% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1658 37.74% 21.77%
10 2000-10-01 67.3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1638 61.29% Dinaburg 1 1454 17.73% 20.98%
11 2000-08-27 67.0 @ Ventspils 1 1697 71.54% Dinaburg 1 1375 9.01% 19.45%
12 2000-09-17 64.3 @ Valmiera 1 1306 6.74% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1685 74.63% 18.63%
13 2000-04-08 62.4 @ LU Daugava Rga 2 1387 37.49% Valmiera 2 1399 40.74% 21.77%
14 2000-06-07 61.2 Dinaburg 1 1389 12.85% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1640 66.83% 20.33%
15 2000-10-15 60.6 @ FK Riga 2 1372 49.20% Valmiera 2 1298 29.16% 21.64%
16 2000-05-06 60.1 Skonto 3 1733 52.41% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1633 26.06% 21.54%
17 2000-10-22 57.4 Skonto 3 1855 63.79% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1643 15.49% 20.72%
18 2000-09-23 56.9 Policijas FK 1 1128 2.83% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1677 81.33% 15.84%
19 2000-08-27 56.5 @ Skonto 1 1838 56.96% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1697 21.73% 21.30%
20 2000-08-27 56.1 LU Daugava Rga 2 1180 12.94% @ FK Riga 1 1428 66.72% 20.34%
21 2000-06-10 55.5 @ Dinaburg 1 1422 60.02% LU Daugava Rga 1 1251 18.89% 21.09%
22 2000-05-31 54.8 Dinaburg 2 1365 27.47% @ FK Riga 1 1453 50.94% 21.59%
23 2000-10-21 54.8 Ventspils 2 1740 68.65% @ Dinaburg 1 1464 11.32% 20.03%
24 2000-07-08 54.7 @ LU Daugava Rga 1 1220 21.27% Valmiera 1 1365 57.46% 21.27%
25 2000-04-08 54.5 Skonto 1 1686 55.53% @ Ventspils 0 1559 23.09% 21.39%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-11-04 30.1 @ Dinaburg 3 1476 70.89% Policijas FK 0 1166 9.52% 19.59%
2 2000-09-17 30.4 Dinaburg 3 1416 68.17% @ Policijas FK 0 1147 11.72% 20.11%
3 2000-10-10 32.5 @ Dinaburg 2 1459 68.60% LU Daugava Rga 0 1184 11.36% 20.04%
4 2000-05-30 33.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1634 77.20% @ Policijas FK 0 1198 5.05% 17.75%
5 2000-07-04 33.1 Ventspils 3 1668 77.36% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1228 4.95% 17.69%
6 2000-10-28 33.8 FK Riga 2 1380 62.32% @ Policijas FK 0 1184 16.80% 20.88%
7 2000-06-14 34.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1643 74.99% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1256 6.49% 18.52%
8 2000-09-17 34.3 @ Ventspils 2 1689 79.05% LU Daugava Rga 0 1206 3.98% 16.98%
9 2000-10-15 34.3 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1640 78.53% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1171 4.27% 17.21%
10 2000-05-14 34.6 @ FK Riga 2 1444 62.97% Policijas FK 0 1242 16.22% 20.81%
11 2000-08-19 34.8 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1691 79.87% LU Daugava Rga 1 1186 3.54% 16.59%
12 2000-05-22 35.0 @ Ventspils 4 1610 70.48% LU Daugava Rga 0 1306 9.84% 19.68%
13 2000-10-10 35.0 @ Skonto 7 1841 84.35% Policijas FK 0 1188 1.65% 14.00%
14 2000-08-26 35.2 @ Valmiera 3 1298 51.18% Policijas FK 0 1208 27.24% 21.58%
15 2000-04-22 35.3 Skonto 5 1716 77.41% @ Policijas FK 0 1275 4.92% 17.67%
16 2000-06-28 35.8 @ Skonto 4 1800 81.89% LU Daugava Rga 0 1233 2.58% 15.53%
17 2000-08-05 35.9 Skonto 8 1825 83.22% @ Policijas FK 0 1213 2.05% 14.74%
18 2000-09-07 36.0 Skonto 5 1850 83.99% @ LU Daugava Rga 0 1210 1.77% 14.24%
19 2000-09-08 36.0 @ FK Riga 4 1398 65.34% Policijas FK 1 1167 14.13% 20.53%
20 2000-05-21 36.2 Dinaburg 2 1339 54.25% @ Policijas FK 0 1224 24.30% 21.45%
21 2000-06-10 36.4 @ Skonto 2 1791 82.80% Policijas FK 0 1194 2.21% 14.99%
22 2000-10-15 36.6 @ Ventspils 1 1739 81.56% Policijas FK 0 1182 2.73% 15.71%
23 2000-08-18 36.8 Ventspils 1 1694 79.08% @ Policijas FK 0 1210 3.96% 16.96%
24 2000-04-30 37.3 Ventspils 1 1588 71.79% @ Policijas FK 0 1262 8.82% 19.39%
25 2000-04-08 37.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1570 69.74% Policijas FK 0 1277 10.43% 19.83%