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2001 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Skonto

68 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ventspils

6.91 points above expected

67 points · 60.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zibens Zemessardze

9.93 points below expected

4 points · 13.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skonto 28 22 2 4 68 94 26 +68 63.40 +4.60
2 Ventspils 28 22 1 5 67 69 21 +48 60.09 +6.91
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 28 20 4 4 64 60 24 +36 58.48 +5.52
4 Dinaburg 28 15 5 8 50 60 29 +31 47.18 +2.82
5 PFK Daugava 28 12 2 14 38 37 38 -1 37.08 +0.92
6 Valmiera 28 5 4 19 19 28 56 -28 25.81 -6.81
7 FK Riga 28 3 5 20 14 25 72 -47 17.70 -3.70
8 Zibens Zemessardze 28 1 1 26 4 11 118 -107 13.93 -9.93

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ventspils 67 60.09 +6.91
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 64 58.48 +5.52
3 Skonto 68 63.40 +4.60
4 Dinaburg 50 47.18 +2.82
5 PFK Daugava 38 37.08 +0.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zibens Zemessardze 4 13.93 -9.93
2 Valmiera 19 25.81 -6.81
3 FK Riga 14 17.70 -3.70
4 PFK Daugava 38 37.08 +0.92
5 Dinaburg 50 47.18 +2.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ventspils 10 Jun 10 – Sep 8 1 in 270
2 PFK Daugava 4 May 6 – May 27 1 in 65
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 Apr 7 – May 14 1 in 9
4 Skonto 6 Apr 7 – May 14 1 in 4
5 Zibens Zemessardze 1 Aug 1 – Aug 1 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zibens Zemessardze 13 Apr 19 – Jul 27 1 in 90
2 Skonto 2 Jun 10 – Jun 15 1 in 44
3 Valmiera 6 Jul 27 – Sep 15 1 in 18
4 FK Riga 6 Apr 28 – May 27 1 in 9
5 PFK Daugava 5 Jul 24 – Aug 25 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ventspils 10 Jun 10 – Sep 8 1 in 35
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 13 Apr 7 – Jul 27 1 in 24
3 PFK Daugava 4 May 6 – May 27 1 in 20
4 FK Riga 3 Oct 9 – Oct 20 1 in 17
5 Dinaburg 6 May 19 – Jul 13 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 PFK Daugava 7 Jul 13 – Aug 25 1 in 103
2 Zibens Zemessardze 15 Apr 7 – Jul 27 1 in 25
3 Skonto 2 Jun 10 – Jun 15 1 in 14
4 FK Riga 8 Apr 7 – May 27 1 in 9
5 Dinaburg 4 May 6 – May 27 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Skonto 1875 68 +83 15 12.3 +2.7
Ventspils 1814 67 -13 12 12.7 -0.7
Liepajas Metalurgs 1694 64 -54 9 9.4 -0.4
Dinaburg 1598 50 +12 7 7.1 -0.1
PFK Daugava 1418 38 +76 9 7.9 +1.1
Valmiera 1097 19 -23 4 4.6 -0.6
FK Riga 1087 14 -31 2 2.8 -0.8
Zibens Zemessardze 749 4 -50 0 1.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DIN FR LM PD SKO VAL VEN ZZ
Dinaburg —
3-1-0
10.28
0-2-2
4.16
4-0-0
7.87
0-0-4
2.76
3-1-0
8.86
1-1-2
3.73
4-0-0
10.28
FK Riga
0-1-3
1.28
—
0-0-4
1.43
0-1-3
1.92
0-0-4
1.01
1-2-1
4.65
0-0-4
0.81
2-1-1
6.59
Liepajas Metalurgs
2-2-0
7.39
4-0-0
10.14
—
4-0-0
9.64
1-2-1
5.11
4-0-0
10.45
1-0-3
5.58
4-0-0
10.98
PFK Daugava
0-0-4
3.68
3-1-0
9.63
0-0-4
1.91
—
1-0-3
2.03
3-1-0
7.93
1-0-3
2.06
4-0-0
8.89
Skonto
4-0-0
8.79
4-0-0
10.55
1-2-1
6.43
3-0-1
9.52
—
4-0-0
10.36
2-0-2
6.75
4-0-0
10.70
Valmiera
0-1-3
2.69
1-2-1
6.90
0-0-4
1.11
0-1-3
3.62
0-0-4
1.20
—
0-0-4
1.12
4-0-0
8.88
Ventspils
2-1-1
7.81
4-0-0
10.76
3-0-1
5.96
3-0-1
9.49
2-0-2
4.80
4-0-0
10.45
—
4-0-0
10.61
Zibens Zemessardze
0-0-4
1.28
1-1-2
4.96
0-0-4
0.60
0-0-4
2.67
0-0-4
0.87
0-0-4
2.67
0-0-4
0.97
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +8.8
Allowed 0.81 -6.9
Differential 0.93 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.79%6.25%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%29.46%
16.25%6.25%5.36%3.12%2.68%2.68%26.34%
210.71%5.36%1.79%2.23%0.45%0.45%20.98%
33.57%3.12%2.23%0.89%——9.82%
43.57%2.68%0.45%———6.70%
5+3.57%2.68%0.45%———6.70%
Total29.46%26.34%20.98%9.82%6.70%6.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.93 1.93 3.16
CV 1.13 1.13 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
110.71%7.14%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
27.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
37.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+3.57%7.14%————10.71%
Total35.71%35.71%21.43%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.04 +1.11
SD 2.38 1.04 2.73
CV 1.11 1.00 —
Max 11 4 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%39.29%
1—14.29%7.14%10.71%3.57%10.71%46.43%
23.57%——3.57%——7.14%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total7.14%28.57%21.43%21.43%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.57 -1.68
SD 1.10 2.03 2.39
CV 1.23 0.79 —
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—3.57%———7.14%
110.71%3.57%10.71%———25.00%
214.29%17.86%3.57%———35.71%
33.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
410.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
5+———————
Total42.86%32.14%21.43%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 0.86 +1.29
SD 1.24 0.89 1.58
CV 0.58 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%21.43%7.14%—3.57%39.29%
17.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%—25.00%
214.29%3.57%————17.86%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total35.71%21.43%25.00%10.71%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.36 -0.04
SD 1.54 1.37 2.60
CV 1.17 1.01 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
110.71%3.57%————14.29%
214.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
33.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
4———————
5+17.86%7.14%3.57%———28.57%
Total46.43%25.00%21.43%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.36 0.93 +2.43
SD 2.80 1.09 3.21
CV 0.84 1.17 —
Max 11 4 +11
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%10.71%7.14%—35.71%
13.57%14.29%14.29%7.14%—3.57%42.86%
23.57%——7.14%——10.71%
37.14%—————7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%25.00%25.00%25.00%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.00 -1.00
SD 1.05 1.41 2.07
CV 1.05 0.71 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
17.14%—3.57%———10.71%
228.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%——46.43%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total50.00%28.57%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.46 0.75 +1.71
SD 1.86 0.89 2.24
CV 0.75 1.18 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%14.29%3.57%17.86%21.43%71.43%
1———3.57%10.71%7.14%21.43%
2—————3.57%3.57%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.57%14.29%14.29%7.14%28.57%32.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 4.21 -3.82
SD 0.74 2.94 3.01
CV 1.88 0.70 —
Max 3 11 +2
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skonto 1875 68 63.40 +4.60 83.0% 48 53 59 64 67 72 81
Ventspils 1814 67 60.09 +6.91 84.0% 43 49 55 60 65 69 74
Liepajas Metalurgs 1694 64 58.48 +5.52 81.0% 42 49 55 58 62 68 75
Dinaburg 1598 50 47.18 +2.82 72.0% 34 37 44 47 51 56 61
PFK Daugava 1418 38 37.08 +0.92 55.0% 22 25 33 37 41 47 51
Valmiera 1097 19 25.81 -6.81 13.0% 12 18 22 26 30 33 35
FK Riga 1087 14 17.70 -3.70 28.0% 9 11 14 17 21 26 29
Zibens Zemessardze 749 4 13.93 -9.93 2.0% 1 7 11 13 16 23 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.71%
Clear Edge
50.00%10.71%39.29%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 37.37 Elo pts.
178 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Skonto, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.52 * Some Luck: 4.52 to 6.78 * Lucky: 6.78 to 9.03 * Wild Swing: 9.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.36 * Close: 0.36 to 0.54 * Off: 0.54 to 0.72 * Way Off: 0.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.78 points
Some Luck
05.6514
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.451
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
84.00%
Ventspils
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
2.00%
Zibens Zemessardze
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.33
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 402.56
3.40
Wide Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
97%
Wide Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
38%
Few
0%36%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%44%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.33
Highly Predictable
00.392
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Strong Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
9%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.55
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skonto50.00%29.00%20.00%1.00%————
Ventspils28.00%37.00%29.00%6.00%————
Liepajas Metalurgs22.00%29.00%40.00%9.00%————
Dinaburg—5.00%11.00%70.00%14.00%———
PFK Daugava———14.00%79.00%7.00%——
Valmiera————7.00%76.00%16.00%1.00%
FK Riga—————10.00%61.00%29.00%
Zibens Zemessardze—————7.00%23.00%70.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinaburg 100% —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% —
PFK Daugava 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Ventspils 100% —
Valmiera 99.00% 1.00%
FK Riga 71.00% 29.00%
Zibens Zemessardze 30.00% 70.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2001-04-07 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-443.2 1351 1505 28.70% 11.34% 59.96%-0.66 -69.4 0
2001-04-07 @ FK Riga W 4-143.2 1505 1351 59.96% 11.34% 28.70%+0.66 +69.4 3
2001-04-07 PFK Daugava W 1-033.0 1569 1191 82.20% 11.10% 6.71%+2.33 +7.5 3
2001-04-07 @ Ventspils L 0-133.0 1191 1569 6.71% 11.10% 82.20%-2.33 -7.5 0
2001-04-07 Valmiera W 4-032.6 1415 1277 66.39% 11.31% 22.30%+0.99 +85.1 3
2001-04-07 @ Dinaburg L 0-432.6 1277 1415 22.30% 11.31% 66.39%-0.99 -85.1 0
2001-04-07 Zibens Zemessardze W 5-037.5 1658 1368 78.17% 11.20% 10.63%+1.84 +51.8 3
2001-04-07 @ Skonto L 0-537.5 1368 1658 10.63% 11.20% 78.17%-1.84 -51.8 0
2001-04-13 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-134.0 1192 1574 9.69% 11.18% 79.13%-1.94 -10.7 0
2001-04-13 @ Valmiera W 1-034.0 1574 1192 79.13% 11.18% 9.69%+1.94 +10.7 6
2001-04-13 PFK Daugava W 3-029.6 1500 1184 79.56% 11.17% 9.27%+1.99 +28.2 6
2001-04-13 @ Dinaburg L 0-329.6 1184 1500 9.27% 11.17% 79.56%-1.99 -28.2 0
2001-04-13 Ventspils W 3-261.3 1710 1576 65.96% 11.32% 22.72%+0.96 +21.7 6
2001-04-13 @ Skonto L 2-361.3 1576 1710 22.72% 11.32% 65.96%-0.96 -21.7 3
2001-04-13 Zibens Zemessardze D 0-053.8 1281 1316 44.66% 11.36% 43.98%+0.01 -0.2 1
2001-04-13 @ FK Riga D 0-053.8 1316 1281 43.98% 11.36% 44.66%-0.01 +0.2 1
2001-04-19 Dinaburg L 0-139.7 1316 1528 22.37% 11.32% 66.31%-0.98 -23.9 1
2001-04-19 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 1-039.7 1528 1316 66.31% 11.32% 22.37%+0.98 +23.9 9
2001-04-19 Skonto L 0-530.3 1156 1731 3.41% 10.92% 85.67%-3.03 -16.9 0
2001-04-19 @ PFK Daugava W 5-030.3 1731 1156 85.67% 10.92% 3.41%+3.03 +16.9 9
2001-04-19 Ventspils W 2-157.5 1585 1554 53.80% 11.36% 34.85%+0.38 +33.8 9
2001-04-19 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-257.5 1554 1585 34.85% 11.36% 53.80%-0.38 -33.8 3
2001-04-28 Dinaburg L 2-346.1 1281 1552 16.97% 11.28% 71.75%-1.31 -16.5 1
2001-04-28 @ FK Riga W 3-246.1 1552 1281 71.75% 11.28% 16.97%+1.31 +16.5 12
2001-04-28 PFK Daugava W 2-030.5 1619 1139 85.22% 10.95% 3.83%+2.91 +8.1 12
2001-04-28 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-230.5 1139 1619 3.83% 10.95% 85.22%-2.91 -8.1 0
2001-04-28 Skonto L 1-240.6 1181 1748 3.58% 10.93% 85.48%-2.98 -3.8 0
2001-04-28 @ Valmiera W 2-140.6 1748 1181 85.48% 10.93% 3.58%+2.98 +3.8 12
2001-04-28 Zibens Zemessardze W 3-139.3 1521 1293 74.21% 11.25% 14.54%+1.49 +25.9 6
2001-04-28 @ Ventspils L 1-339.3 1293 1521 14.54% 11.25% 74.21%-1.49 -25.9 1
2001-05-06 Dinaburg W 1-053.8 1627 1568 57.38% 11.35% 31.27%+0.54 +32.5 15
2001-05-06 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-153.8 1568 1627 31.27% 11.35% 57.38%-0.54 -32.5 12
2001-05-06 FK Riga W 1-039.8 1752 1265 85.38% 10.94% 3.68%+2.95 +4.1 15
2001-05-06 @ Skonto L 0-139.8 1265 1752 3.68% 10.94% 85.38%-2.95 -4.1 1
2001-05-06 Valmiera W 2-030.9 1546 1177 81.88% 11.11% 7.01%+2.29 +14.8 9
2001-05-06 @ Ventspils L 0-230.9 1177 1546 7.01% 11.11% 81.88%-2.29 -14.8 0
2001-05-06 Zibens Zemessardze W 2-044.2 1131 1267 30.93% 11.35% 57.72%-0.55 +107.1 3
2001-05-06 @ PFK Daugava L 0-244.2 1267 1131 57.72% 11.35% 30.93%+0.55 -107.1 1
2001-05-10 FK Riga W 3-041.3 1163 1260 35.88% 11.36% 52.76%-0.34 +142.9 3
2001-05-10 @ Valmiera L 0-341.3 1260 1163 52.76% 11.36% 35.88%+0.34 -142.9 1
2001-05-14 Dinaburg W 1-050.7 1756 1536 73.63% 11.26% 15.11%+1.45 +16.5 18
2001-05-14 @ Skonto L 0-150.7 1536 1756 15.11% 11.26% 73.63%-1.45 -16.5 12
2001-05-14 PFK Daugava L 1-250.4 1306 1238 58.53% 11.35% 30.12%+0.59 -54.3 3
2001-05-14 @ Valmiera W 2-150.4 1238 1306 30.12% 11.35% 58.53%-0.59 +54.3 6
2001-05-14 Ventspils L 0-131.9 1118 1561 7.02% 11.11% 81.88%-2.28 -7.8 1
2001-05-14 @ FK Riga W 1-031.9 1561 1118 81.88% 11.11% 7.02%+2.28 +7.8 12
2001-05-14 Zibens Zemessardze W 4-029.1 1660 1159 85.65% 10.92% 3.43%+3.02 +13.8 18
2001-05-14 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-429.1 1159 1660 3.43% 10.92% 85.65%-3.02 -13.8 1
2001-05-19 Dinaburg D 2-273.9 1569 1520 56.23% 11.35% 32.42%+0.49 -4.2 13
2001-05-19 @ Ventspils D 2-273.9 1520 1569 32.42% 11.35% 56.23%-0.49 +4.2 13
2001-05-19 FK Riga W 4-029.7 1292 1110 70.56% 11.29% 18.15%+1.23 +70.1 9
2001-05-19 @ PFK Daugava L 0-429.7 1110 1292 18.15% 11.29% 70.56%-1.23 -70.2 1
2001-05-19 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-175.6 1773 1673 62.24% 11.33% 26.42%+0.77 -8.6 19
2001-05-19 @ Skonto D 1-175.6 1673 1773 26.42% 11.33% 62.24%-0.77 +8.6 19
2001-05-19 Zibens Zemessardze W 2-034.6 1251 1146 62.96% 11.33% 25.71%+0.80 +51.2 6
2001-05-19 @ Valmiera L 0-234.6 1146 1251 25.71% 11.33% 62.96%-0.80 -51.2 1
2001-05-27 Dinaburg D 1-160.5 1302 1524 21.43% 11.31% 67.26%-1.03 +11.1 7
2001-05-27 @ Valmiera D 1-160.5 1524 1302 67.26% 11.31% 21.43%+1.03 -11.1 14
2001-05-27 FK Riga W 2-134.7 1682 1040 87.78% 10.67% 1.55%+3.82 +1.7 22
2001-05-27 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-234.7 1040 1682 1.55% 10.67% 87.78%-3.82 -1.6 1
2001-05-27 Ventspils W 2-053.6 1362 1565 23.30% 11.32% 65.38%-0.93 +121.1 12
2001-05-27 @ PFK Daugava L 0-253.6 1565 1362 65.38% 11.32% 23.30%+0.93 -121.1 13
2001-05-27 Zibens Zemessardze W 7-233.8 1764 1094 88.06% 10.61% 1.33%+3.98 +4.6 22
2001-05-27 @ Skonto L 2-733.8 1094 1764 1.33% 10.61% 88.06%-3.98 -4.6 1
2001-06-10 Dinaburg L 0-151.7 1483 1513 45.47% 11.36% 43.17%+0.05 -45.5 12
2001-06-10 @ PFK Daugava W 1-051.7 1513 1483 43.17% 11.36% 45.47%-0.05 +45.5 17
2001-06-10 Skonto W 2-065.9 1444 1769 13.02% 11.23% 75.75%-1.62 +140.9 16
2001-06-10 @ Ventspils L 0-265.9 1769 1444 75.75% 11.23% 13.02%+1.62 -140.9 22
2001-06-10 Valmiera W 2-144.2 1684 1314 81.92% 11.11% 6.97%+2.29 +7.3 25
2001-06-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-244.2 1314 1684 6.97% 11.11% 81.92%-2.29 -7.3 7
2001-06-10 Zibens Zemessardze W 2-040.6 1038 1090 42.24% 11.36% 46.40%-0.08 +87.4 4
2001-06-10 @ FK Riga L 0-240.6 1090 1038 46.40% 11.36% 42.24%+0.08 -87.4 1
2001-06-15 FK Riga D 1-156.5 1306 1125 70.45% 11.29% 18.27%+1.23 -12.8 8
2001-06-15 @ Valmiera D 1-156.5 1125 1306 18.27% 11.29% 70.45%-1.23 +12.8 5
2001-06-15 PFK Daugava L 0-260.4 1628 1438 71.23% 11.28% 17.49%+1.28 -132.2 22
2001-06-15 @ Skonto W 2-060.4 1438 1628 17.49% 11.28% 71.23%-1.28 +132.2 15
2001-06-15 Zibens Zemessardze W 11-125.0 1558 1002 86.65% 10.83% 2.52%+3.33 +19.8 20
2001-06-15 @ Dinaburg L 1-1125.0 1002 1558 2.52% 10.83% 86.65%-3.33 -19.8 1
2001-06-20 Skonto L 1-631.1 1138 1496 11.04% 11.20% 77.76%-1.80 -44.5 5
2001-06-20 @ FK Riga W 6-131.1 1496 1138 77.76% 11.20% 11.04%+1.80 +44.5 25
2001-06-25 PFK Daugava L 0-129.7 983 1570 3.20% 10.90% 85.90%-3.09 -3.6 1
2001-06-25 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 1-029.7 1570 983 85.90% 10.90% 3.20%+3.09 +3.6 18
2001-06-29 FK Riga W 2-029.2 1578 1094 85.31% 10.95% 3.74%+2.93 +8.0 23
2001-06-29 @ Dinaburg L 0-229.2 1094 1578 3.74% 10.95% 85.31%-2.93 -7.9 5
2001-06-29 Valmiera W 3-139.4 1540 1293 75.51% 11.24% 13.25%+1.60 +23.7 28
2001-06-29 @ Skonto L 1-339.4 1293 1540 13.25% 11.24% 75.51%-1.60 -23.7 8
2001-06-29 Ventspils L 1-431.0 979 1585 2.89% 10.87% 86.24%-3.20 -7.5 1
2001-06-29 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 4-131.0 1585 979 86.24% 10.87% 2.89%+3.20 +7.5 19
2001-07-08 Ventspils L 1-241.4 1270 1592 13.18% 11.24% 75.59%-1.60 -13.6 8
2001-07-08 @ Valmiera W 2-141.4 1592 1270 75.59% 11.24% 13.18%+1.60 +13.6 22
2001-07-13 FK Riga W 6-129.3 1606 1086 86.04% 10.89% 3.07%+3.13 +12.6 25
2001-07-13 @ Ventspils L 1-629.3 1086 1606 3.07% 10.89% 86.04%-3.13 -12.6 5
2001-07-13 Liepajas Metalurgs D 3-382.4 1586 1691 34.90% 11.36% 53.74%-0.38 +2.7 24
2001-07-13 @ Dinaburg D 3-382.4 1691 1586 53.74% 11.36% 34.90%+0.38 -2.8 26
2001-07-13 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-425.8 971 1688 1.55% 10.67% 87.78%-3.82 -6.2 1
2001-07-13 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 4-025.8 1688 971 87.78% 10.67% 1.55%+3.82 +6.2 29
2001-07-13 Valmiera D 1-160.7 1573 1256 79.61% 11.17% 9.22%+1.99 -17.7 19
2001-07-13 @ PFK Daugava D 1-160.7 1256 1573 9.22% 11.17% 79.61%-1.99 +17.7 9
2001-07-20 PFK Daugava D 1-157.5 1073 1556 5.69% 11.06% 83.26%-2.50 +19.7 6
2001-07-20 @ FK Riga D 1-157.5 1556 1073 83.26% 11.06% 5.69%+2.50 -19.7 20
2001-07-20 Valmiera L 0-329.5 965 1274 14.12% 11.25% 74.63%-1.53 -42.3 1
2001-07-20 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 3-029.5 1274 965 74.63% 11.25% 14.12%+1.53 +42.3 12
2001-07-20 Ventspils L 1-459.7 1589 1618 45.41% 11.36% 43.23%+0.04 -105.0 24
2001-07-20 @ Dinaburg W 4-159.7 1618 1589 43.23% 11.36% 45.41%-0.04 +105.0 28
2001-07-24 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-455.0 1536 1694 28.21% 11.34% 60.45%-0.68 -68.3 20
2001-07-24 @ PFK Daugava W 4-155.0 1694 1536 60.45% 11.34% 28.21%+0.68 +68.3 32
2001-07-27 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-336.5 1093 1763 2.02% 10.76% 87.22%-3.56 -3.7 6
2001-07-27 @ FK Riga W 3-136.5 1763 1093 87.22% 10.76% 2.02%+3.56 +3.7 35
2001-07-27 PFK Daugava W 2-046.5 1723 1468 76.12% 11.23% 12.65%+1.65 +26.2 31
2001-07-27 @ Ventspils L 0-246.5 1468 1723 12.65% 11.23% 76.12%-1.65 -26.2 20
2001-07-27 Skonto L 0-924.1 923 1564 2.38% 10.81% 86.81%-3.39 -20.6 1
2001-07-27 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 9-024.1 1564 923 86.81% 10.81% 2.38%+3.39 +20.6 31
2001-07-27 Valmiera W 6-136.1 1484 1316 69.25% 11.30% 19.45%+1.15 +76.4 27
2001-07-27 @ Dinaburg L 1-636.1 1316 1484 19.45% 11.30% 69.25%-1.15 -76.4 12
2001-08-01 Dinaburg L 1-351.0 1441 1560 33.15% 11.35% 55.50%-0.46 -56.0 20
2001-08-01 @ PFK Daugava W 3-151.0 1560 1441 55.50% 11.35% 33.15%+0.46 +56.0 30
2001-08-01 FK Riga W 3-150.2 902 1089 24.99% 11.33% 63.68%-0.84 +102.1 4
2001-08-01 @ Zibens Zemessardze L 1-350.2 1089 902 63.68% 11.33% 24.99%+0.84 -102.2 6
2001-08-02 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-164.3 1750 1767 47.24% 11.36% 41.40%+0.12 +39.5 34
2001-08-02 @ Ventspils L 1-264.3 1767 1750 41.40% 11.36% 47.24%-0.12 -39.5 35
2001-08-07 Skonto W 4-259.8 1727 1584 66.88% 11.31% 21.81%+1.01 +34.0 38
2001-08-07 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-459.8 1584 1727 21.81% 11.31% 66.88%-1.01 -34.0 31
2001-08-12 Valmiera W 3-036.0 1761 1240 86.07% 10.89% 3.05%+3.14 +9.4 41
2001-08-12 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-336.0 1240 1761 3.05% 10.89% 86.07%-3.14 -9.4 12
2001-08-16 Dinaburg L 0-525.2 1004 1616 2.80% 10.86% 86.34%-3.23 -13.9 4
2001-08-16 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 5-025.2 1616 1004 86.34% 10.86% 2.80%+3.23 +13.9 33
2001-08-16 Skonto L 0-242.5 1385 1550 27.47% 11.34% 61.20%-0.72 -54.4 20
2001-08-16 @ PFK Daugava W 2-042.5 1550 1385 61.20% 11.34% 27.47%+0.72 +54.4 34
2001-08-16 Valmiera W 3-257.5 987 1230 19.36% 11.30% 69.35%-1.16 +61.0 9
2001-08-16 @ FK Riga L 2-357.5 1230 987 69.35% 11.30% 19.36%+1.16 -61.0 12
2001-08-16 Ventspils L 1-266.1 1770 1789 46.99% 11.36% 41.64%+0.11 -44.2 41
2001-08-16 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-166.1 1789 1770 41.64% 11.36% 46.99%-0.11 +44.2 37
2001-08-25 Dinaburg L 1-234.7 1048 1630 3.30% 10.91% 85.79%-3.06 -3.5 9
2001-08-25 @ FK Riga W 2-134.7 1630 1048 85.79% 10.91% 3.30%+3.06 +3.5 36
2001-08-25 PFK Daugava W 2-040.5 1726 1331 82.84% 11.07% 6.09%+2.43 +12.9 44
2001-08-25 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-240.5 1331 1726 6.09% 11.07% 82.84%-2.43 -12.8 20
2001-08-25 Skonto L 2-341.9 1169 1605 7.33% 11.12% 81.56%-2.24 -7.3 12
2001-08-25 @ Valmiera W 3-241.9 1605 1169 81.56% 11.12% 7.33%+2.24 +7.3 37
2001-08-25 Ventspils L 0-428.2 991 1833 0.76% 10.40% 88.83%-4.53 -3.0 4
2001-08-25 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 4-028.2 1833 991 88.83% 10.40% 0.76%+4.53 +3.1 40
2001-09-08 FK Riga W 9-126.2 1612 1044 86.84% 10.81% 2.36%+3.40 +15.0 40
2001-09-08 @ Skonto L 1-926.2 1044 1612 2.36% 10.81% 86.84%-3.40 -15.0 9
2001-09-08 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-071.7 1633 1739 34.83% 11.36% 53.82%-0.38 +5.0 37
2001-09-08 @ Dinaburg D 0-071.7 1739 1633 53.82% 11.36% 34.83%+0.38 -5.0 45
2001-09-08 Valmiera W 2-036.7 1836 1162 88.10% 10.60% 1.29%+4.00 +2.7 43
2001-09-08 @ Ventspils L 0-236.7 1162 1836 1.29% 10.60% 88.10%-4.00 -2.8 12
2001-09-08 Zibens Zemessardze W 6-025.7 1318 988 80.25% 11.15% 8.59%+2.07 +50.0 23
2001-09-08 @ PFK Daugava L 0-625.7 988 1318 8.59% 11.15% 80.25%-2.07 -50.0 4
2001-09-12 Ventspils W 2-065.9 1627 1839 22.35% 11.31% 66.34%-0.98 +122.9 43
2001-09-12 @ Skonto L 0-265.9 1839 1627 66.34% 11.31% 22.35%+0.98 -122.9 43
2001-09-15 PFK Daugava L 0-135.6 1159 1368 22.66% 11.32% 66.03%-0.97 -24.2 12
2001-09-15 @ Valmiera W 1-035.6 1368 1159 66.03% 11.32% 22.66%+0.97 +24.1 26
2001-09-15 Skonto L 0-255.8 1638 1750 34.06% 11.35% 54.59%-0.42 -66.3 37
2001-09-15 @ Dinaburg W 2-055.8 1750 1638 54.59% 11.35% 34.06%+0.42 +66.3 46
2001-09-15 Ventspils L 0-229.6 1029 1716 1.84% 10.73% 87.44%-3.65 -3.9 9
2001-09-15 @ FK Riga W 2-029.6 1716 1029 87.44% 10.73% 1.84%+3.65 +3.9 46
2001-09-15 Zibens Zemessardze W 2-028.1 1734 937 89.01% 10.34% 0.65%+4.69 +1.4 48
2001-09-15 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-228.1 937 1734 0.65% 10.34% 89.01%-4.69 -1.4 4
2001-09-22 Dinaburg W 2-051.0 1720 1572 67.40% 11.31% 21.29%+1.04 +43.0 49
2001-09-22 @ Ventspils L 0-251.0 1572 1720 21.29% 11.31% 67.40%-1.04 -43.0 37
2001-09-22 FK Riga W 3-133.4 1392 1026 81.80% 11.11% 7.09%+2.27 +12.9 29
2001-09-22 @ PFK Daugava L 1-333.4 1026 1392 7.09% 11.11% 81.80%-2.27 -12.9 9
2001-09-22 Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-280.3 1816 1736 60.09% 11.34% 28.56%+0.66 -5.6 47
2001-09-22 @ Skonto D 2-280.3 1736 1816 28.56% 11.34% 60.09%-0.66 +5.6 49
2001-09-22 Valmiera L 0-135.3 936 1135 23.70% 11.32% 64.98%-0.91 -25.2 4
2001-09-22 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 1-035.3 1135 936 64.98% 11.32% 23.70%+0.91 +25.2 15
2001-09-27 Skonto L 0-151.6 1529 1811 16.14% 11.27% 72.59%-1.37 -17.5 37
2001-09-27 @ Dinaburg W 1-051.6 1811 1529 72.59% 11.27% 16.14%+1.37 +17.5 50
2001-09-29 Dinaburg L 0-330.1 1160 1512 11.38% 11.21% 77.41%-1.77 -34.3 15
2001-09-29 @ Valmiera W 3-030.1 1512 1160 77.41% 11.21% 11.38%+1.77 +34.4 40
2001-09-30 FK Riga W 1-031.0 1741 1013 88.56% 10.49% 0.95%+4.31 +1.1 52
2001-09-30 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-131.0 1013 1741 0.95% 10.49% 88.56%-4.31 -1.1 9
2001-09-30 Skonto L 0-1125.5 911 1828 0.50% 10.23% 89.27%-4.95 -5.2 4
2001-09-30 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 11-025.5 1828 911 89.27% 10.23% 0.50%+4.95 +5.2 53
2001-09-30 Ventspils L 0-245.5 1405 1763 11.01% 11.20% 77.79%-1.80 -22.9 29
2001-09-30 @ PFK Daugava W 2-045.5 1763 1405 77.79% 11.20% 11.01%+1.80 +22.9 52
2001-10-09 FK Riga L 1-538.5 906 1012 34.81% 11.36% 53.83%-0.38 -106.9 4
2001-10-09 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 5-138.5 1012 906 53.83% 11.36% 34.81%+0.38 +106.9 12
2001-10-10 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-232.7 1126 1742 2.72% 10.85% 86.42%-3.26 -5.8 15
2001-10-10 @ Valmiera W 2-032.7 1742 1126 86.42% 10.85% 2.72%+3.26 +5.8 55
2001-10-10 PFK Daugava W 2-039.9 1546 1382 68.89% 11.30% 19.81%+1.13 +40.2 43
2001-10-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-239.9 1382 1546 19.81% 11.30% 68.89%-1.13 -40.2 29
2001-10-10 Skonto W 3-270.2 1786 1833 42.89% 11.36% 45.75%-0.06 +41.0 55
2001-10-10 @ Ventspils L 2-370.2 1833 1786 45.75% 11.36% 42.89%+0.06 -41.0 53
2001-10-14 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-055.0 1827 1748 59.89% 11.34% 28.77%+0.65 +56.8 58
2001-10-14 @ Ventspils L 0-255.0 1748 1827 28.77% 11.34% 59.89%-0.65 -56.8 55
2001-10-14 Valmiera D 1-156.3 1118 1120 49.38% 11.36% 39.26%+0.20 -2.4 13
2001-10-14 @ FK Riga D 1-156.3 1120 1118 39.26% 11.36% 49.38%-0.20 +2.4 16
2001-10-14 Zibens Zemessardze W 4-129.7 1586 799 88.96% 10.36% 0.68%+4.64 +1.8 46
2001-10-14 @ Dinaburg L 1-429.7 799 1586 0.68% 10.36% 88.96%-4.64 -1.8 4
2001-10-16 PFK Daugava W 3-041.1 1792 1342 84.49% 11.00% 4.51%+2.74 +13.9 56
2001-10-16 @ Skonto L 0-341.1 1342 1792 4.51% 11.00% 84.49%-2.74 -13.9 29
2001-10-20 FK Riga D 1-158.3 1588 1116 85.03% 10.97% 4.01%+2.86 -20.7 47
2001-10-20 @ Dinaburg D 1-158.3 1116 1588 4.01% 10.97% 85.03%-2.86 +20.7 14
2001-10-20 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-246.1 1328 1691 10.73% 11.20% 78.07%-1.83 -11.2 29
2001-10-20 @ PFK Daugava W 2-146.1 1691 1328 78.07% 11.20% 10.73%+1.83 +11.2 58
2001-10-20 Valmiera W 3-138.6 1806 1122 88.19% 10.59% 1.23%+4.06 +2.2 59
2001-10-20 @ Skonto L 1-338.6 1122 1806 1.23% 10.59% 88.19%-4.06 -2.2 16
2001-10-20 Zibens Zemessardze W 9-024.3 1884 797 90.28% 9.59% 0.12%+6.32 +1.1 61
2001-10-20 @ Ventspils L 0-924.3 797 1884 0.12% 9.59% 90.28%-6.32 -1.1 4
2001-10-27 Dinaburg W 2-156.7 1702 1567 66.11% 11.32% 22.58%+0.97 +22.7 61
2001-10-27 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-256.7 1567 1702 22.58% 11.32% 66.11%-0.97 -22.7 47
2001-10-27 PFK Daugava L 0-425.4 796 1317 4.61% 11.00% 84.39%-2.72 -18.5 4
2001-10-27 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 4-025.4 1317 796 84.39% 11.00% 4.61%+2.72 +18.5 32
2001-10-27 Skonto L 0-531.8 1137 1809 2.00% 10.75% 87.25%-3.57 -9.9 14
2001-10-27 @ FK Riga W 5-031.8 1809 1137 87.25% 10.75% 2.00%+3.57 +9.9 62
2001-10-27 Ventspils L 0-434.4 1120 1885 1.19% 10.57% 88.24%-4.09 -4.8 16
2001-10-27 @ Valmiera W 4-034.4 1885 1120 88.24% 10.57% 1.19%+4.09 +4.8 64
2001-11-03 Dinaburg W 2-048.8 1819 1545 77.25% 11.21% 11.54%+1.75 +24.0 65
2001-11-03 @ Skonto L 0-248.8 1545 1819 11.54% 11.21% 77.25%-1.75 -24.0 47
2001-11-03 FK Riga W 3-035.8 1890 1127 88.80% 10.42% 0.79%+4.50 +2.4 67
2001-11-03 @ Ventspils L 0-335.8 1127 1890 0.79% 10.42% 88.80%-4.50 -2.4 14
2001-11-03 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-424.3 777 1725 0.42% 10.16% 89.42%-5.12 -1.7 4
2001-11-03 @ Zibens Zemessardze W 4-024.3 1725 777 89.42% 10.16% 0.42%+5.12 +1.7 64
2001-11-03 Valmiera W 3-030.0 1336 1115 73.64% 11.26% 15.10%+1.45 +45.1 35
2001-11-03 @ PFK Daugava L 0-330.0 1115 1336 15.10% 11.26% 73.64%-1.45 -45.1 16
2001-11-10 PFK Daugava L 0-232.6 1124 1381 18.20% 11.29% 70.51%-1.23 -37.1 14
2001-11-10 @ FK Riga W 2-032.6 1381 1124 70.51% 11.29% 18.20%+1.23 +37.1 38
2001-11-10 Skonto L 1-262.0 1727 1842 33.51% 11.35% 55.14%-0.44 -32.7 64
2001-11-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-162.0 1842 1727 55.14% 11.35% 33.51%+0.44 +32.7 68
2001-11-10 Ventspils W 1-070.9 1521 1892 10.26% 11.19% 78.55%-1.88 +77.7 50
2001-11-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-170.9 1892 1521 78.55% 11.19% 10.26%+1.88 -77.7 67
2001-11-10 Zibens Zemessardze W 4-132.6 1070 776 78.43% 11.19% 10.38%+1.87 +26.5 19
2001-11-10 @ Valmiera L 1-432.6 776 1070 10.38% 11.19% 78.43%-1.87 -26.5 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2001-11-10 10.26% @ Dinaburg 1521 1 Ventspils 1892 0
2 2001-06-10 13.02% @ Ventspils 1444 2 Skonto 1769 0
3 2001-06-15 17.49% PFK Daugava 1438 2 @ Skonto 1628 0
4 2001-08-16 19.36% @ FK Riga 987 3 Valmiera 1230 2
5 2001-09-12 22.35% @ Skonto 1627 2 Ventspils 1839 0
6 2001-05-27 23.30% @ PFK Daugava 1362 2 Ventspils 1565 0
7 2001-08-01 24.99% @ Zibens Zemessardze 902 3 FK Riga 1089 1
8 2001-05-14 30.12% PFK Daugava 1238 2 @ Valmiera 1306 1
9 2001-05-06 30.93% @ PFK Daugava 1131 2 Zibens Zemessardze 1267 0
10 2001-05-10 35.88% @ Valmiera 1163 3 FK Riga 1260 0
11 2001-08-16 41.64% Ventspils 1789 2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1770 1
12 2001-06-10 42.24% @ FK Riga 1038 2 Zibens Zemessardze 1090 0
13 2001-10-10 42.89% @ Ventspils 1786 3 Skonto 1833 2
14 2001-06-10 43.17% Dinaburg 1513 1 @ PFK Daugava 1483 0
15 2001-07-20 43.23% Ventspils 1618 4 @ Dinaburg 1589 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-05-10 142.87 @ Valmiera 3 1163 35.88% FK Riga 0 1260 52.76% 11.36%
2 2001-06-10 140.92 @ Ventspils 2 1444 13.02% Skonto 0 1769 75.75% 11.23%
3 2001-06-15 132.16 PFK Daugava 2 1438 17.49% @ Skonto 0 1628 71.23% 11.28%
4 2001-09-12 122.90 @ Skonto 2 1627 22.35% Ventspils 0 1839 66.34% 11.31%
5 2001-05-27 121.10 @ PFK Daugava 2 1362 23.30% Ventspils 0 1565 65.38% 11.32%
6 2001-05-06 107.14 @ PFK Daugava 2 1131 30.93% Zibens Zemessardze 0 1267 57.72% 11.35%
7 2001-10-09 106.88 FK Riga 5 1012 53.83% @ Zibens Zemessardze 1 906 34.81% 11.36%
8 2001-07-20 105.02 Ventspils 4 1618 43.23% @ Dinaburg 1 1589 45.41% 11.36%
9 2001-08-01 102.15 @ Zibens Zemessardze 3 902 24.99% FK Riga 1 1089 63.68% 11.33%
10 2001-06-10 87.43 @ FK Riga 2 1038 42.24% Zibens Zemessardze 0 1090 46.40% 11.36%
11 2001-04-07 85.13 @ Dinaburg 4 1415 66.39% Valmiera 0 1277 22.30% 11.31%
12 2001-11-10 77.67 @ Dinaburg 1 1521 10.26% Ventspils 0 1892 78.55% 11.19%
13 2001-07-27 76.44 @ Dinaburg 6 1484 69.25% Valmiera 1 1316 19.45% 11.30%
14 2001-05-19 70.15 @ PFK Daugava 4 1292 70.56% FK Riga 0 1110 18.15% 11.29%
15 2001-04-07 69.43 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1505 59.96% @ FK Riga 1 1351 28.70% 11.34%
16 2001-07-24 68.35 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1694 60.45% @ PFK Daugava 1 1536 28.21% 11.34%
17 2001-09-15 66.27 Skonto 2 1750 54.59% @ Dinaburg 0 1638 34.06% 11.35%
18 2001-08-16 60.98 @ FK Riga 3 987 19.36% Valmiera 2 1230 69.35% 11.30%
19 2001-10-14 56.82 @ Ventspils 2 1827 59.89% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1748 28.77% 11.34%
20 2001-08-01 56.00 Dinaburg 3 1560 55.50% @ PFK Daugava 1 1441 33.15% 11.35%
21 2001-08-16 54.44 Skonto 2 1550 61.20% @ PFK Daugava 0 1385 27.47% 11.34%
22 2001-05-14 54.30 PFK Daugava 2 1238 30.12% @ Valmiera 1 1306 58.53% 11.35%
23 2001-04-07 51.81 @ Skonto 5 1658 78.17% Zibens Zemessardze 0 1368 10.63% 11.20%
24 2001-05-19 51.22 @ Valmiera 2 1251 62.96% Zibens Zemessardze 0 1146 25.71% 11.33%
25 2001-09-08 50.02 @ PFK Daugava 6 1318 80.25% Zibens Zemessardze 0 988 8.59% 11.15%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-07-13 82.4 @ Dinaburg 3 1586 34.90% Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1691 53.74% 11.36%
2 2001-09-22 80.3 @ Skonto 2 1816 60.09% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1736 28.56% 11.34%
3 2001-05-19 75.6 @ Skonto 1 1773 62.24% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1673 26.42% 11.33%
4 2001-05-19 73.9 @ Ventspils 2 1569 56.23% Dinaburg 2 1520 32.42% 11.35%
5 2001-09-08 71.7 @ Dinaburg 0 1633 34.83% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1739 53.82% 11.36%
6 2001-11-10 70.9 @ Dinaburg 1 1521 10.26% Ventspils 0 1892 78.55% 11.19%
7 2001-10-10 70.2 @ Ventspils 3 1786 42.89% Skonto 2 1833 45.75% 11.36%
8 2001-08-16 66.1 Ventspils 2 1789 41.64% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1770 46.99% 11.36%
9 2001-06-10 65.9 @ Ventspils 2 1444 13.02% Skonto 0 1769 75.75% 11.23%
10 2001-09-12 65.9 @ Skonto 2 1627 22.35% Ventspils 0 1839 66.34% 11.31%
11 2001-08-02 64.3 @ Ventspils 2 1750 47.24% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1767 41.40% 11.36%
12 2001-11-10 62.0 Skonto 2 1842 55.14% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1727 33.51% 11.35%
13 2001-04-13 61.3 @ Skonto 3 1710 65.96% Ventspils 2 1576 22.72% 11.32%
14 2001-07-13 60.7 @ PFK Daugava 1 1573 79.61% Valmiera 1 1256 9.22% 11.17%
15 2001-05-27 60.5 @ Valmiera 1 1302 21.43% Dinaburg 1 1524 67.26% 11.31%
16 2001-06-15 60.4 PFK Daugava 2 1438 17.49% @ Skonto 0 1628 71.23% 11.28%
17 2001-08-07 59.8 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1727 66.88% Skonto 2 1584 21.81% 11.31%
18 2001-07-20 59.7 Ventspils 4 1618 43.23% @ Dinaburg 1 1589 45.41% 11.36%
19 2001-10-20 58.3 @ Dinaburg 1 1588 85.03% FK Riga 1 1116 4.01% 10.97%
20 2001-04-19 57.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1585 53.80% Ventspils 1 1554 34.85% 11.36%
21 2001-07-20 57.5 @ FK Riga 1 1073 5.69% PFK Daugava 1 1556 83.26% 11.06%
22 2001-08-16 57.5 @ FK Riga 3 987 19.36% Valmiera 2 1230 69.35% 11.30%
23 2001-10-27 56.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1702 66.11% Dinaburg 1 1567 22.58% 11.32%
24 2001-06-15 56.5 @ Valmiera 1 1306 70.45% FK Riga 1 1125 18.27% 11.29%
25 2001-10-14 56.3 @ FK Riga 1 1118 49.38% Valmiera 1 1120 39.26% 11.36%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-07-27 24.1 Skonto 9 1564 86.81% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 923 2.38% 10.81%
2 2001-10-20 24.3 @ Ventspils 9 1884 90.28% Zibens Zemessardze 0 797 0.12% 9.59%
3 2001-11-03 24.3 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1725 89.42% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 777 0.42% 10.16%
4 2001-06-15 25.0 @ Dinaburg 11 1558 86.65% Zibens Zemessardze 1 1002 2.52% 10.83%
5 2001-08-16 25.2 Dinaburg 5 1616 86.34% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 1004 2.80% 10.86%
6 2001-10-27 25.4 PFK Daugava 4 1317 84.39% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 796 4.61% 11.00%
7 2001-09-30 25.5 Skonto 11 1828 89.27% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 911 0.50% 10.23%
8 2001-09-08 25.7 @ PFK Daugava 6 1318 80.25% Zibens Zemessardze 0 988 8.59% 11.15%
9 2001-07-13 25.8 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1688 87.78% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 971 1.55% 10.67%
10 2001-09-08 26.2 @ Skonto 9 1612 86.84% FK Riga 1 1044 2.36% 10.81%
11 2001-09-15 28.1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1734 89.01% Zibens Zemessardze 0 937 0.65% 10.34%
12 2001-08-25 28.2 Ventspils 4 1833 88.83% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 991 0.76% 10.40%
13 2001-05-14 29.1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1660 85.65% Zibens Zemessardze 0 1159 3.43% 10.92%
14 2001-06-29 29.2 @ Dinaburg 2 1578 85.31% FK Riga 0 1094 3.74% 10.95%
15 2001-07-13 29.3 @ Ventspils 6 1606 86.04% FK Riga 1 1086 3.07% 10.89%
16 2001-07-20 29.5 Valmiera 3 1274 74.63% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 965 14.12% 11.25%
17 2001-04-13 29.6 @ Dinaburg 3 1500 79.56% PFK Daugava 0 1184 9.27% 11.17%
18 2001-09-15 29.6 Ventspils 2 1716 87.44% @ FK Riga 0 1029 1.84% 10.73%
19 2001-05-19 29.7 @ PFK Daugava 4 1292 70.56% FK Riga 0 1110 18.15% 11.29%
20 2001-06-25 29.7 PFK Daugava 1 1570 85.90% @ Zibens Zemessardze 0 983 3.20% 10.90%
21 2001-10-14 29.7 @ Dinaburg 4 1586 88.96% Zibens Zemessardze 1 799 0.68% 10.36%
22 2001-11-03 30.0 @ PFK Daugava 3 1336 73.64% Valmiera 0 1115 15.10% 11.26%
23 2001-09-29 30.1 Dinaburg 3 1512 77.41% @ Valmiera 0 1160 11.38% 11.21%
24 2001-04-19 30.3 Skonto 5 1731 85.67% @ PFK Daugava 0 1156 3.41% 10.92%
25 2001-04-28 30.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1619 85.22% PFK Daugava 0 1139 3.83% 10.95%