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2005 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Liepajas Metalurgs

71 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Liepajas Metalurgs

8.66 points above expected

71 points · 62.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Venta

15.48 points below expected

9 points · 24.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 28 22 5 1 71 85 19 +66 62.34 +8.66
2 Skonto 28 17 7 4 58 59 25 +34 56.87 +1.13
3 Ventspils 28 16 7 5 55 56 30 +26 52.86 +2.14
4 FK Riga 28 9 7 12 34 32 46 -14 29.39 +4.61
5 Dinaburg 28 8 9 11 33 36 43 -7 31.78 +1.22
6 FK Jurmala 28 9 6 13 33 37 37 0 33.47 -0.47
7 Olimps Riga 28 5 4 19 19 24 68 -44 21.19 -2.19
8 Venta 28 2 3 23 9 18 79 -61 24.48 -15.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 71 62.34 +8.66
2 FK Riga 34 29.39 +4.61
3 Ventspils 55 52.86 +2.14
4 Dinaburg 33 31.78 +1.22
5 Skonto 58 56.87 +1.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Venta 9 24.48 -15.48
2 Olimps Riga 19 21.19 -2.19
3 FK Jurmala 33 33.47 -0.47
4 Skonto 58 56.87 +1.13
5 Dinaburg 33 31.78 +1.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Riga 3 Apr 30 – May 8 1 in 184
2 Olimps Riga 2 May 26 – May 29 1 in 123
3 Ventspils 4 Apr 24 – May 8 1 in 12
4 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 Jul 3 – Aug 6 1 in 10
5 Skonto 5 Jul 7 – Aug 11 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Venta 19 May 26 – Nov 5 1 in 12,539
2 Olimps Riga 7 Apr 20 – May 17 1 in 74
3 Skonto 2 Apr 30 – May 4 1 in 67
4 FK Jurmala 3 May 4 – May 12 1 in 9
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 May 25 – May 25 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skonto 17 Jun 15 – Nov 5 1 in 85
2 FK Jurmala 5 May 17 – Jun 25 1 in 61
3 FK Riga 4 Apr 30 – May 12 1 in 28
4 Dinaburg 5 Jun 13 – Jul 24 1 in 18
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 18 May 29 – Nov 5 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Venta 24 Apr 30 – Nov 5 1 in 487
2 Ventspils 3 May 29 – Jun 19 1 in 18
3 Skonto 2 Apr 30 – May 4 1 in 7
4 Olimps Riga 7 Apr 20 – May 17 1 in 7
5 Dinaburg 5 May 26 – Jul 17 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Liepajas Metalurgs 1814 71 +52 11 11.2 -0.2
Skonto 1702 58 +55 11 10.2 +0.8
Ventspils 1618 55 -18 12 10.2 +1.8
FK Riga 1316 34 -12 5 7.3 -2.3
Dinaburg 1347 33 +25 7 5.0 +2.0
FK Jurmala 1411 33 -50 4 5.8 -1.8
Olimps Riga 1173 19 +40 5 3.9 +1.1
Venta 948 9 -92 0 2.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DIN FJ FR LM OR SKO VEN VEN
Dinaburg —
2-1-1
4.80
1-2-1
6.26
0-1-3
1.73
1-2-1
7.19
0-1-3
2.03
4-0-0
7.02
0-2-2
2.50
FK Jurmala
1-1-2
6.29
 —
2-1-1
6.58
0-0-4
2.07
3-1-0
7.14
1-0-3
2.45
2-2-0
6.54
0-1-3
2.98
FK Riga
1-2-1
4.84
1-1-2
4.52
 —
0-0-4
1.69
3-1-0
7.09
1-1-2
2.42
3-0-1
6.66
0-2-2
2.46
Liepajas Metalurgs
3-1-0
9.46
4-0-0
9.10
4-0-0
9.50
 —
4-0-0
9.52
1-3-0
6.64
3-1-0
9.58
3-0-1
7.48
Olimps Riga
1-2-1
3.92
0-1-3
3.97
0-1-3
4.02
0-0-4
1.71
 —
1-0-3
1.47
3-0-1
5.19
0-0-4
1.77
Skonto
3-1-0
9.13
3-0-1
8.70
2-1-1
8.76
0-3-1
4.45
3-0-1
9.75
 —
4-0-0
8.90
2-2-0
6.59
Venta
0-0-4
4.11
0-2-2
4.59
1-0-3
4.46
0-1-3
1.70
1-0-3
5.91
0-0-4
2.28
 —
0-0-4
2.19
Ventspils
2-2-0
8.65
3-1-0
8.14
2-2-0
8.68
1-0-3
3.63
4-0-0
9.42
0-2-2
4.51
4-0-0
9.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.95 +9.2
Allowed 0.90 -9.5
Differential 0.98 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%8.48%3.57%8.04%2.23%2.68%29.46%
18.48%11.61%4.02%3.57%—2.68%30.36%
23.57%4.02%4.46%1.34%1.79%0.45%15.62%
38.04%3.57%1.34%0.89%0.45%—14.29%
42.23%—1.79%0.45%——4.46%
5+2.68%2.68%0.45%———5.80%
Total29.46%30.36%15.62%14.29%4.46%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.56 1.56 2.52
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%—3.57%25.00%
17.14%14.29%10.71%7.14%——39.29%
2—7.14%7.14%—3.57%—17.86%
310.71%3.57%—3.57%——17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%32.14%17.86%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.54 -0.25
SD 1.05 1.35 1.86
CV 0.82 0.88 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%—3.57%——32.14%
110.71%7.14%10.71%7.14%——35.71%
2——7.14%3.57%——10.71%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%25.00%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.09 1.61
CV 1.01 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%39.29%
17.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
27.14%—3.57%———10.71%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+———————
Total32.14%21.43%21.43%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.64 -0.50
SD 1.27 1.66 2.43
CV 1.11 1.01 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%——3.57%——7.14%
114.29%10.71%————25.00%
23.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
43.57%—7.14%———10.71%
5+17.86%10.71%————28.57%
Total50.00%35.71%10.71%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.04 0.68 +2.36
SD 2.17 0.82 2.47
CV 0.71 1.21 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%3.57%25.00%3.57%7.14%53.57%
1—14.29%———7.14%21.43%
27.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
3————3.57%—3.57%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total7.14%35.71%7.14%28.57%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.43 -1.57
SD 1.21 1.71 2.28
CV 1.41 0.70 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
110.71%21.43%————32.14%
2—7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%—17.86%
321.43%10.71%————32.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total39.29%42.86%10.71%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.89 +1.21
SD 1.26 0.99 1.83
CV 0.60 1.11 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%17.86%7.14%7.14%60.71%
1——3.57%7.14%—7.14%17.86%
23.57%—3.57%—7.14%3.57%17.86%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%14.29%25.00%14.29%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.82 -2.18
SD 0.91 2.07 2.31
CV 1.42 0.73 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
117.86%10.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
27.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
37.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
4———————
5+3.57%7.14%————10.71%
Total39.29%32.14%17.86%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.07 +0.93
SD 1.61 1.21 2.11
CV 0.81 1.13 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Liepajas Metalurgs 1814 71 62.34 +8.66 99.0% 50 54 59 63 67 70 72
Skonto 1702 58 56.87 +1.13 55.0% 41 47 53 57 61 67 70
Ventspils 1618 55 52.86 +2.14 69.0% 39 42 49 53 57 63 65
FK Jurmala 1411 33 33.47 -0.47 46.0% 21 24 30 34 36 41 51
Dinaburg 1347 33 31.78 +1.22 62.0% 10 24 28 32 36 41 51
FK Riga 1316 34 29.39 +4.61 87.0% 18 20 26 29 32 38 54
Olimps Riga 1173 19 21.19 -2.19 41.0% 10 13 18 21 24 31 34
Venta 948 9 24.48 -15.48 0.0% 11 16 21 25 27 33 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.14%
Clear Edge
42.86%21.43%35.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 24.86 Elo pts.
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Liepajas Metalurgs, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.46/gm
Runaway
00.230.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.45 * Some Luck: 4.45 to 6.68 * Lucky: 6.68 to 8.91 * Wild Swing: 8.91 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.55 * Close: 0.55 to 0.82 * Off: 0.82 to 1.09 * Way Off: 1.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.60 points
Some Luck
05.5714
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.681.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
Liepajas Metalurgs
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Venta
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 286.33
2.93
Strong Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
89%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Some Drama
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.58
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.53
Weak Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
9%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
6%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.25
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.162
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Liepajas Metalurgs66.00%26.00%8.00%—————
Skonto26.00%46.00%28.00%—————
Ventspils8.00%28.00%61.00%2.00%—1.00%——
FK Riga———15.00%24.00%37.00%18.00%6.00%
Dinaburg——2.00%26.00%40.00%18.00%10.00%4.00%
FK Jurmala——1.00%52.00%24.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%
Olimps Riga———2.00%5.00%12.00%25.00%56.00%
Venta———3.00%7.00%16.00%41.00%33.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Ventspils 100% — —
FK Jurmala 93.00% 6.00% 1.00%
Dinaburg 86.00% 10.00% 4.00%
FK Riga 76.00% 18.00% 6.00%
Venta 26.00% 41.00% 33.00%
Olimps Riga 19.00% 25.00% 56.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-04-10 FK Jurmala W 1-042.8 1327 1333 41.33% 22.72% 35.95%+0.12 +25.6 3
2005-04-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-142.8 1333 1327 35.95% 22.72% 41.33%-0.12 -25.6 0
2005-04-10 Olimps Riga W 3-041.0 1541 1415 57.43% 22.27% 20.30%+0.93 +43.9 3
2005-04-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-341.0 1415 1541 20.30% 22.27% 57.43%-0.93 -43.9 0
2005-04-10 Skonto L 0-342.8 1415 1579 21.35% 22.33% 56.31%-0.86 -45.9 0
2005-04-10 @ Venta W 3-042.8 1579 1415 56.31% 22.33% 21.35%+0.86 +45.9 3
2005-04-10 Ventspils L 0-235.0 1245 1475 15.66% 21.89% 62.45%-1.26 -24.1 0
2005-04-10 @ FK Riga W 2-035.0 1475 1245 62.45% 21.89% 15.66%+1.26 +24.1 3
2005-04-16 Dinaburg W 2-147.5 1371 1352 44.66% 22.69% 32.65%+0.26 +22.4 3
2005-04-16 @ Olimps Riga L 1-247.5 1352 1371 32.65% 22.69% 44.66%-0.26 -22.4 3
2005-04-16 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-136.1 1221 1584 8.00% 20.53% 71.47%-2.08 -6.8 0
2005-04-16 @ FK Riga W 1-036.1 1584 1221 71.47% 20.53% 8.00%+2.08 +6.8 6
2005-04-16 Skonto L 1-355.6 1499 1625 25.44% 22.52% 52.04%-0.62 -31.7 3
2005-04-16 @ Ventspils W 3-155.6 1625 1499 52.04% 22.52% 25.44%+0.62 +31.7 6
2005-04-16 Venta D 0-050.6 1307 1369 33.50% 22.70% 43.80%-0.23 +1.7 1
2005-04-16 @ FK Jurmala D 0-050.6 1369 1307 43.80% 22.70% 33.50%+0.23 -1.6 1
2005-04-20 FK Jurmala W 3-143.6 1657 1309 73.22% 20.09% 6.69%+2.29 +9.3 9
2005-04-20 @ Skonto L 1-343.6 1309 1657 6.69% 20.09% 73.22%-2.29 -9.3 1
2005-04-20 FK Riga D 0-049.8 1330 1215 56.37% 22.33% 21.30%+0.86 -6.0 4
2005-04-20 @ Dinaburg D 0-049.8 1215 1330 21.30% 22.33% 56.37%-0.86 +6.0 1
2005-04-20 Olimps Riga W 3-041.2 1367 1393 38.47% 22.73% 38.80%-0.01 +74.5 4
2005-04-20 @ Venta L 0-341.2 1393 1367 38.80% 22.73% 38.47%+0.01 -74.5 3
2005-04-20 Ventspils W 2-046.6 1591 1467 57.24% 22.28% 20.48%+0.91 +30.5 9
2005-04-20 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-246.6 1467 1591 20.48% 22.28% 57.24%-0.91 -30.5 3
2005-04-24 FK Jurmala W 1-038.6 1437 1300 58.57% 22.20% 19.23%+1.00 +15.3 6
2005-04-24 @ Ventspils L 0-138.6 1300 1437 19.23% 22.20% 58.57%-1.00 -15.3 1
2005-04-24 Dinaburg W 4-247.9 1622 1324 70.61% 20.72% 8.67%+1.98 +10.7 12
2005-04-24 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-447.9 1324 1622 8.67% 20.72% 70.61%-1.98 -10.7 4
2005-04-24 Skonto L 1-541.4 1319 1666 8.66% 20.72% 70.62%-1.98 -21.8 3
2005-04-24 @ Olimps Riga W 5-141.4 1666 1319 70.62% 20.72% 8.66%+1.98 +21.8 12
2005-04-24 Venta L 0-234.5 1221 1442 16.32% 21.96% 61.73%-1.20 -25.0 1
2005-04-24 @ FK Riga W 2-034.5 1442 1221 61.73% 21.96% 16.32%+1.20 +25.0 7
2005-04-30 FK Riga L 0-256.5 1688 1196 78.81% 18.00% 3.18%+3.18 -97.3 12
2005-04-30 @ Skonto W 2-056.5 1196 1688 3.18% 18.00% 78.81%-3.18 +97.3 4
2005-04-30 Olimps Riga W 1-042.5 1284 1297 40.38% 22.73% 36.89%+0.08 +26.2 4
2005-04-30 @ FK Jurmala L 0-142.5 1297 1284 36.89% 22.73% 40.38%-0.08 -26.2 3
2005-04-30 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-062.7 1467 1632 21.25% 22.33% 56.42%-0.87 +6.0 8
2005-04-30 @ Venta D 0-062.7 1632 1467 56.42% 22.33% 21.25%+0.87 -6.0 13
2005-04-30 Ventspils L 0-140.6 1313 1452 24.07% 22.47% 53.46%-0.70 -18.5 4
2005-04-30 @ Dinaburg W 1-040.6 1452 1313 53.46% 22.47% 24.07%+0.70 +18.5 9
2005-05-04 FK Jurmala W 3-252.7 1293 1310 39.69% 22.73% 37.58%+0.05 +23.7 7
2005-05-04 @ FK Riga L 2-352.7 1310 1293 37.58% 22.73% 39.69%-0.05 -23.7 4
2005-05-04 Olimps Riga W 3-246.9 1471 1271 64.10% 21.72% 14.18%+1.38 +10.4 12
2005-05-04 @ Ventspils L 2-346.9 1271 1471 14.18% 21.72% 64.10%-1.38 -10.4 3
2005-05-04 Skonto W 4-263.7 1626 1591 46.95% 22.66% 30.40%+0.37 +32.8 16
2005-05-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-463.7 1591 1626 30.40% 22.66% 46.95%-0.37 -32.8 12
2005-05-04 Venta W 1-050.7 1295 1473 20.09% 22.26% 57.65%-0.94 +38.3 7
2005-05-04 @ Dinaburg L 0-150.7 1473 1295 57.65% 22.26% 20.09%+0.94 -38.3 8
2005-05-08 Dinaburg W 3-036.2 1558 1333 65.98% 21.50% 12.53%+1.53 +28.5 15
2005-05-08 @ Skonto L 0-336.2 1333 1558 12.53% 21.50% 65.98%-1.53 -28.5 7
2005-05-08 FK Riga L 0-239.5 1260 1317 34.22% 22.71% 43.07%-0.19 -46.5 3
2005-05-08 @ Olimps Riga W 2-039.5 1317 1260 43.07% 22.71% 34.22%+0.19 +46.5 10
2005-05-08 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-140.2 1287 1659 7.62% 20.42% 71.96%-2.13 -6.5 4
2005-05-08 @ FK Jurmala W 1-040.2 1659 1287 71.96% 20.42% 7.62%+2.13 +6.5 19
2005-05-08 Ventspils L 0-148.2 1434 1481 35.54% 22.72% 41.74%-0.13 -25.4 8
2005-05-08 @ Venta W 1-048.2 1481 1434 41.74% 22.72% 35.54%+0.13 +25.4 15
2005-05-12 Dinaburg L 1-247.9 1280 1305 38.69% 22.73% 38.58%+0.00 -25.6 4
2005-05-12 @ FK Jurmala W 2-147.9 1305 1280 38.58% 22.73% 38.69%+0.00 +25.6 10
2005-05-12 FK Riga D 0-054.6 1506 1363 59.16% 22.16% 18.68%+1.03 -7.0 16
2005-05-12 @ Ventspils D 0-054.6 1363 1506 18.68% 22.16% 59.16%-1.03 +7.0 11
2005-05-12 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-632.0 1214 1666 5.07% 19.36% 75.57%-2.62 -22.4 3
2005-05-12 @ Olimps Riga W 6-032.0 1666 1214 75.57% 19.36% 5.07%+2.62 +22.4 22
2005-05-12 Venta W 3-041.0 1587 1409 62.26% 21.91% 15.83%+1.24 +35.3 18
2005-05-12 @ Skonto L 0-341.0 1409 1587 15.83% 21.91% 62.26%-1.24 -35.3 8
2005-05-17 FK Jurmala D 2-259.6 1374 1255 56.73% 22.31% 20.96%+0.88 -4.1 9
2005-05-17 @ Venta D 2-259.6 1255 1374 20.96% 22.31% 56.73%-0.88 +4.1 5
2005-05-17 FK Riga W 5-143.8 1688 1370 71.71% 20.48% 7.82%+2.10 +19.7 25
2005-05-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-543.8 1370 1688 7.82% 20.48% 71.71%-2.10 -19.7 11
2005-05-17 Olimps Riga W 3-032.8 1330 1191 58.73% 22.19% 19.08%+1.01 +41.6 13
2005-05-17 @ Dinaburg L 0-332.8 1191 1330 19.08% 22.19% 58.73%-1.01 -41.6 3
2005-05-17 Ventspils W 1-050.9 1622 1499 57.08% 22.29% 20.63%+0.90 +16.3 21
2005-05-17 @ Skonto L 0-150.9 1499 1622 20.63% 22.29% 57.08%-0.90 -16.3 16
2005-05-25 Liepajas Metalurgs W 3-061.2 1483 1708 16.04% 21.93% 62.03%-1.23 +112.8 19
2005-05-25 @ Ventspils L 0-361.2 1708 1483 62.03% 21.93% 16.04%+1.23 -112.8 25
2005-05-26 Dinaburg W 3-040.4 1350 1372 39.12% 22.73% 38.15%+0.02 +73.5 14
2005-05-26 @ FK Riga L 0-340.4 1372 1350 38.15% 22.73% 39.12%-0.02 -73.5 13
2005-05-26 Skonto W 3-267.7 1259 1638 7.36% 20.33% 72.31%-2.18 +42.9 8
2005-05-26 @ FK Jurmala L 2-367.7 1638 1259 72.31% 20.33% 7.36%+2.18 -42.9 21
2005-05-26 Venta W 2-154.2 1150 1370 16.42% 21.97% 61.61%-1.20 +38.6 6
2005-05-26 @ Olimps Riga L 1-254.2 1370 1150 61.61% 21.97% 16.42%+1.20 -38.6 9
2005-05-29 Olimps Riga L 0-253.4 1595 1188 75.76% 19.29% 4.95%+2.65 -94.4 21
2005-05-29 @ Skonto W 2-053.4 1188 1595 4.95% 19.29% 75.76%-2.65 +94.4 9
2005-05-29 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-244.6 1298 1595 11.21% 21.28% 67.51%-1.67 -8.8 13
2005-05-29 @ Dinaburg W 2-144.6 1595 1298 67.51% 21.28% 11.21%+1.67 +8.8 28
2005-05-29 Ventspils D 2-265.0 1302 1596 11.34% 21.30% 67.36%-1.65 +6.8 9
2005-05-29 @ FK Jurmala D 2-265.0 1596 1302 67.36% 21.30% 11.34%+1.65 -6.8 20
2005-05-30 FK Riga L 0-142.1 1331 1424 29.43% 22.64% 47.93%-0.42 -21.9 9
2005-05-30 @ Venta W 1-042.1 1424 1331 47.93% 22.64% 29.43%+0.42 +21.9 17
2005-06-13 Dinaburg D 1-159.3 1589 1290 70.72% 20.70% 8.58%+1.99 -10.2 21
2005-06-13 @ Ventspils D 1-159.3 1290 1589 8.58% 20.70% 70.72%-1.99 +10.3 14
2005-06-15 Skonto L 0-444.1 1446 1501 34.40% 22.71% 42.88%-0.19 -88.6 17
2005-06-15 @ FK Riga W 4-044.1 1501 1446 42.88% 22.71% 34.40%+0.19 +88.6 24
2005-06-19 FK Jurmala L 0-339.1 1283 1308 38.51% 22.73% 38.76%-0.01 -74.1 9
2005-06-19 @ Olimps Riga W 3-039.1 1308 1283 38.76% 22.73% 38.51%+0.01 +74.1 12
2005-06-19 Skonto D 2-273.9 1579 1589 40.68% 22.73% 36.59%+0.09 -0.4 22
2005-06-19 @ Ventspils D 2-273.9 1589 1579 36.59% 22.73% 40.68%-0.09 +0.4 25
2005-06-19 Venta W 5-138.8 1604 1309 70.45% 20.75% 8.80%+1.96 +22.2 31
2005-06-19 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-538.8 1309 1604 8.80% 20.75% 70.45%-1.96 -22.2 9
2005-06-25 FK Riga W 3-038.7 1382 1357 45.59% 22.68% 31.73%+0.31 +63.6 15
2005-06-25 @ FK Jurmala L 0-338.7 1357 1382 31.73% 22.68% 45.59%-0.31 -63.6 17
2005-06-25 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-169.7 1590 1626 37.02% 22.73% 40.25%-0.07 +0.5 26
2005-06-25 @ Skonto D 1-169.7 1626 1590 40.25% 22.73% 37.02%+0.07 -0.5 32
2005-06-25 Ventspils L 0-331.7 1209 1578 7.73% 20.45% 71.82%-2.12 -17.9 9
2005-06-25 @ Olimps Riga W 3-031.7 1578 1209 71.82% 20.45% 7.73%+2.12 +17.9 25
2005-07-03 FK Jurmala W 3-150.8 1626 1446 62.42% 21.89% 15.69%+1.25 +20.9 35
2005-07-03 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-350.8 1446 1626 15.69% 21.89% 62.42%-1.25 -20.9 15
2005-07-03 Olimps Riga W 1-037.7 1294 1191 55.01% 22.40% 22.59%+0.78 +17.6 20
2005-07-03 @ FK Riga L 0-137.7 1191 1294 22.59% 22.40% 55.01%-0.78 -17.6 9
2005-07-03 Venta W 5-137.6 1596 1287 71.26% 20.58% 8.16%+2.05 +20.6 28
2005-07-03 @ Ventspils L 1-537.6 1287 1596 8.16% 20.58% 71.26%-2.05 -20.6 9
2005-07-07 Skonto L 0-138.1 1266 1590 9.77% 20.99% 69.25%-1.84 -8.2 9
2005-07-07 @ Venta W 1-038.1 1590 1266 69.25% 20.99% 9.77%+1.84 +8.2 29
2005-07-08 Olimps Riga W 5-029.4 1646 1173 78.18% 18.30% 3.52%+3.06 +12.9 38
2005-07-08 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-529.4 1173 1646 3.52% 18.30% 78.18%-3.06 -12.9 9
2005-07-08 Ventspils L 1-343.8 1311 1617 10.70% 21.18% 68.11%-1.72 -14.7 20
2005-07-08 @ FK Riga W 3-143.8 1617 1311 68.11% 21.18% 10.70%+1.72 +14.7 31
2005-07-13 FK Jurmala D 0-051.3 1300 1425 25.55% 22.52% 51.92%-0.62 +4.4 15
2005-07-13 @ Dinaburg D 0-051.3 1425 1300 51.92% 22.52% 25.55%+0.62 -4.4 16
2005-07-17 Dinaburg D 1-153.4 1160 1304 23.51% 22.44% 54.05%-0.73 +4.6 10
2005-07-17 @ Olimps Riga D 1-153.4 1304 1160 54.05% 22.44% 23.51%+0.73 -4.6 16
2005-07-17 Venta W 4-032.3 1421 1258 60.95% 22.02% 17.02%+1.15 +49.2 19
2005-07-17 @ FK Jurmala L 0-432.3 1258 1421 17.02% 22.02% 60.95%-1.15 -49.2 9
2005-07-19 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-336.8 1296 1659 8.01% 20.53% 71.45%-2.07 -18.6 20
2005-07-19 @ FK Riga W 3-036.8 1659 1296 71.45% 20.53% 8.01%+2.07 +18.6 41
2005-07-20 Dinaburg L 1-343.1 1209 1300 29.72% 22.64% 47.64%-0.40 -36.0 9
2005-07-20 @ Venta W 3-143.1 1300 1209 47.64% 22.64% 29.72%+0.40 +36.0 19
2005-07-23 Ventspils W 2-162.3 1678 1632 48.31% 22.63% 29.06%+0.44 +20.4 44
2005-07-23 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-262.3 1632 1678 29.06% 22.63% 48.31%-0.44 -20.4 31
2005-07-24 FK Riga D 2-259.4 1336 1278 49.74% 22.59% 27.66%+0.51 -2.4 20
2005-07-24 @ Dinaburg D 2-259.4 1278 1336 27.66% 22.59% 49.74%-0.51 +2.4 21
2005-07-24 Olimps Riga L 0-241.5 1173 1165 43.27% 22.71% 34.02%+0.20 -56.0 9
2005-07-24 @ Venta W 2-041.5 1165 1173 34.02% 22.71% 43.27%-0.20 +56.0 13
2005-07-26 FK Jurmala W 2-153.8 1598 1470 57.70% 22.25% 20.05%+0.94 +15.0 32
2005-07-26 @ Skonto L 1-253.8 1470 1598 20.05% 22.25% 57.70%-0.94 -15.0 19
2005-07-31 Skonto L 0-136.3 1221 1613 6.88% 20.16% 72.96%-2.26 -5.8 13
2005-07-31 @ Olimps Riga W 1-036.3 1613 1221 72.96% 20.16% 6.88%+2.26 +5.8 35
2005-07-31 Venta W 4-243.0 1280 1117 61.02% 22.02% 16.97%+1.16 +20.0 24
2005-07-31 @ FK Riga L 2-443.0 1117 1280 16.97% 22.02% 61.02%-1.16 -20.0 9
2005-08-02 FK Jurmala W 2-153.0 1611 1455 60.37% 22.07% 17.56%+1.11 +13.3 34
2005-08-02 @ Ventspils L 1-253.0 1455 1611 17.56% 22.07% 60.37%-1.11 -13.3 19
2005-08-02 Dinaburg W 5-037.7 1698 1333 73.99% 19.87% 6.14%+2.39 +22.9 47
2005-08-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-537.7 1333 1698 6.14% 19.87% 73.99%-2.39 -22.9 20
2005-08-06 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-336.6 1097 1721 2.08% 16.69% 81.23%-3.68 -2.7 9
2005-08-06 @ Venta W 3-136.6 1721 1097 81.23% 16.69% 2.08%+3.68 +2.7 50
2005-08-06 Ventspils D 3-370.5 1310 1625 10.25% 21.09% 68.66%-1.78 +5.9 21
2005-08-06 @ Dinaburg D 3-370.5 1625 1310 68.66% 21.09% 10.25%+1.78 -5.9 35
2005-08-07 FK Riga W 4-034.5 1619 1300 71.76% 20.46% 7.78%+2.11 +23.6 38
2005-08-07 @ Skonto L 0-434.5 1300 1619 7.78% 20.46% 71.76%-2.11 -23.6 24
2005-08-07 Olimps Riga W 4-348.3 1442 1215 66.11% 21.48% 12.41%+1.54 +9.0 22
2005-08-07 @ FK Jurmala L 3-448.3 1215 1442 12.41% 21.48% 66.11%-1.54 -9.0 13
2005-08-11 Skonto L 1-246.3 1316 1643 9.63% 20.96% 69.41%-1.85 -7.7 21
2005-08-11 @ Dinaburg W 2-146.3 1643 1316 69.41% 20.96% 9.63%+1.85 +7.7 41
2005-08-20 Olimps Riga W 6-133.3 1619 1206 75.99% 19.21% 4.81%+2.69 +14.8 38
2005-08-20 @ Ventspils L 1-633.3 1206 1619 4.81% 19.21% 75.99%-2.69 -14.8 13
2005-08-21 FK Jurmala D 1-155.4 1277 1451 20.46% 22.28% 57.26%-0.91 +5.7 25
2005-08-21 @ FK Riga D 1-155.4 1451 1277 57.26% 22.28% 20.46%+0.91 -5.7 23
2005-08-21 Skonto D 1-171.9 1724 1650 51.65% 22.53% 25.82%+0.60 -3.9 51
2005-08-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-171.9 1650 1724 25.82% 22.53% 51.65%-0.60 +3.8 42
2005-08-21 Venta W 3-030.5 1308 1094 65.20% 21.59% 13.21%+1.47 +29.9 24
2005-08-21 @ Dinaburg L 0-330.5 1094 1308 13.21% 21.59% 65.20%-1.47 -29.9 9
2005-08-28 Dinaburg D 1-163.4 1654 1338 71.60% 20.50% 7.90%+2.09 -10.5 43
2005-08-28 @ Skonto D 1-163.4 1338 1654 7.90% 20.50% 71.60%-2.09 +10.5 25
2005-08-28 FK Riga L 0-335.9 1191 1282 29.64% 22.64% 47.71%-0.41 -60.2 13
2005-08-28 @ Olimps Riga W 3-035.9 1282 1191 47.71% 22.64% 29.64%+0.41 +60.2 28
2005-08-28 Ventspils L 0-626.9 1064 1633 2.77% 17.58% 79.65%-3.34 -11.9 9
2005-08-28 @ Venta W 6-026.9 1633 1064 79.65% 17.58% 2.77%+3.34 +11.9 41
2005-08-29 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-149.4 1445 1720 12.50% 21.49% 66.01%-1.54 -10.4 23
2005-08-29 @ FK Jurmala W 1-049.4 1720 1445 66.01% 21.49% 12.50%+1.54 +10.4 54
2005-09-17 Dinaburg W 1-041.1 1435 1349 53.09% 22.48% 24.43%+0.68 +18.8 26
2005-09-17 @ FK Jurmala L 0-141.1 1349 1435 24.43% 22.48% 53.09%-0.68 -18.8 25
2005-09-17 FK Riga D 1-163.1 1645 1343 70.88% 20.66% 8.45%+2.01 -10.3 42
2005-09-17 @ Ventspils D 1-163.1 1343 1645 8.45% 20.66% 70.88%-2.01 +10.3 29
2005-09-17 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-430.0 1131 1730 2.37% 17.09% 80.54%-3.53 -6.8 13
2005-09-17 @ Olimps Riga W 4-030.0 1730 1131 80.54% 17.09% 2.37%+3.53 +6.8 57
2005-09-17 Venta W 3-027.2 1644 1052 81.68% 16.41% 1.91%+3.78 +4.2 46
2005-09-17 @ Skonto L 0-327.2 1052 1644 1.91% 16.41% 81.68%-3.78 -4.2 9
2005-09-21 FK Jurmala L 2-439.4 1048 1453 6.45% 20.00% 73.55%-2.33 -8.0 9
2005-09-21 @ Venta W 4-239.4 1453 1048 73.55% 20.00% 6.45%+2.33 +8.0 29
2005-09-21 FK Riga W 6-039.7 1737 1353 74.83% 19.61% 5.56%+2.51 +24.6 60
2005-09-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-639.7 1353 1737 5.56% 19.61% 74.83%-2.51 -24.6 29
2005-09-21 Olimps Riga D 1-153.6 1330 1124 64.57% 21.67% 13.76%+1.42 -8.1 26
2005-09-21 @ Dinaburg D 1-153.6 1124 1330 13.76% 21.67% 64.57%-1.42 +8.1 14
2005-09-21 Ventspils D 1-170.8 1648 1635 43.94% 22.70% 33.36%+0.23 -1.5 47
2005-09-21 @ Skonto D 1-170.8 1635 1648 33.36% 22.70% 43.94%-0.23 +1.5 43
2005-10-01 Dinaburg L 1-249.7 1328 1322 43.03% 22.71% 34.26%+0.19 -27.9 29
2005-10-01 @ FK Riga W 2-149.7 1322 1328 34.26% 22.71% 43.03%-0.19 +27.8 29
2005-10-01 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-556.6 1636 1762 25.55% 22.53% 51.92%-0.62 -58.1 43
2005-10-01 @ Ventspils W 5-156.6 1762 1636 51.92% 22.53% 25.55%+0.62 +58.1 63
2005-10-01 Skonto L 0-346.2 1461 1646 19.41% 22.21% 58.38%-0.98 -42.2 29
2005-10-01 @ FK Jurmala W 3-046.2 1646 1461 58.38% 22.21% 19.41%+0.98 +42.2 50
2005-10-01 Venta W 5-241.9 1132 1040 53.80% 22.45% 23.74%+0.72 +36.7 17
2005-10-01 @ Olimps Riga L 2-541.9 1040 1132 23.74% 22.45% 53.80%-0.72 -36.6 9
2005-10-16 FK Riga L 0-428.8 1004 1301 11.20% 21.27% 67.53%-1.67 -33.5 9
2005-10-16 @ Venta W 4-028.8 1301 1004 67.53% 21.27% 11.20%+1.67 +33.5 32
2005-10-16 Olimps Riga W 3-031.1 1689 1169 79.66% 17.57% 2.76%+3.34 +6.2 53
2005-10-16 @ Skonto L 0-331.1 1169 1689 2.76% 17.57% 79.66%-3.34 -6.2 17
2005-10-16 Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-275.0 1350 1820 4.62% 19.10% 76.28%-2.73 +8.9 30
2005-10-16 @ Dinaburg D 2-275.0 1820 1350 76.28% 19.10% 4.62%+2.73 -8.9 64
2005-10-16 Ventspils L 0-146.9 1419 1578 21.91% 22.36% 55.73%-0.83 -17.1 29
2005-10-16 @ FK Jurmala W 1-046.9 1578 1419 55.73% 22.36% 21.91%+0.83 +17.1 46
2005-10-23 FK Jurmala D 1-154.0 1163 1402 14.93% 21.81% 63.26%-1.32 +7.7 18
2005-10-23 @ Olimps Riga D 1-154.0 1402 1163 63.26% 21.81% 14.93%+1.32 -7.7 30
2005-10-23 Dinaburg W 3-145.1 1596 1359 66.81% 21.38% 11.81%+1.61 +16.1 49
2005-10-23 @ Ventspils L 1-345.1 1359 1596 11.81% 21.38% 66.81%-1.61 -16.1 30
2005-10-23 Skonto D 1-164.7 1334 1695 8.09% 20.56% 71.35%-2.06 +10.5 33
2005-10-23 @ FK Riga D 1-164.7 1695 1334 71.35% 20.56% 8.09%+2.06 -10.5 54
2005-10-23 Venta W 9-026.7 1811 970 87.18% 12.31% 0.51%+5.31 +2.8 67
2005-10-23 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-926.7 970 1811 0.51% 12.31% 87.18%-5.31 -2.9 9
2005-10-30 Dinaburg L 0-328.4 967 1343 7.51% 20.38% 72.11%-2.15 -17.4 9
2005-10-30 @ Venta W 3-028.4 1343 967 72.11% 20.38% 7.51%+2.15 +17.4 33
2005-10-30 FK Riga W 1-041.6 1394 1345 48.77% 22.62% 28.62%+0.46 +21.4 33
2005-10-30 @ FK Jurmala L 0-141.6 1345 1394 28.62% 22.62% 48.77%-0.46 -21.4 33
2005-10-30 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-172.6 1684 1814 25.10% 22.51% 52.39%-0.64 +4.1 55
2005-10-30 @ Skonto D 1-172.6 1814 1684 52.39% 22.51% 25.10%+0.64 -4.1 68
2005-10-30 Ventspils L 0-134.5 1170 1612 5.36% 19.51% 75.13%-2.56 -4.5 18
2005-10-30 @ Olimps Riga W 1-034.5 1612 1170 75.13% 19.51% 5.36%+2.56 +4.5 52
2005-11-05 FK Jurmala W 1-048.1 1810 1416 75.24% 19.47% 5.29%+2.57 +4.5 71
2005-11-05 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-148.1 1416 1810 5.29% 19.47% 75.24%-2.57 -4.5 33
2005-11-05 Olimps Riga D 1-153.6 1323 1166 60.46% 22.06% 17.47%+1.12 -6.7 34
2005-11-05 @ FK Riga D 1-153.6 1166 1323 17.47% 22.06% 60.46%-1.12 +6.7 19
2005-11-05 Skonto L 1-347.8 1360 1688 9.55% 20.94% 69.51%-1.86 -13.1 33
2005-11-05 @ Dinaburg W 3-147.8 1688 1360 69.51% 20.94% 9.55%+1.86 +13.2 58
2005-11-05 Venta W 2-027.3 1616 950 83.54% 15.17% 1.29%+4.24 +1.9 55
2005-11-05 @ Ventspils L 0-227.3 950 1616 1.29% 15.17% 83.54%-4.24 -1.9 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-04-30 3.18% FK Riga 1196 2 @ Skonto 1688 0
2 2005-05-29 4.95% Olimps Riga 1188 2 @ Skonto 1595 0
3 2005-05-26 7.36% @ FK Jurmala 1259 3 Skonto 1638 2
4 2005-05-25 16.04% @ Ventspils 1483 3 Liepajas Metalurgs 1708 0
5 2005-05-26 16.42% @ Olimps Riga 1150 2 Venta 1370 1
6 2005-05-04 20.09% @ Dinaburg 1295 1 Venta 1473 0
7 2005-07-24 34.02% Olimps Riga 1165 2 @ Venta 1173 0
8 2005-10-01 34.26% Dinaburg 1322 2 @ FK Riga 1328 1
9 2005-04-20 38.47% @ Venta 1367 3 Olimps Riga 1393 0
10 2005-05-12 38.58% Dinaburg 1305 2 @ FK Jurmala 1280 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-05-25 112.77 @ Ventspils 3 1483 16.04% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1708 62.03% 21.93%
2 2005-04-30 97.29 FK Riga 2 1196 3.18% @ Skonto 0 1688 78.81% 18.00%
3 2005-05-29 94.38 Olimps Riga 2 1188 4.95% @ Skonto 0 1595 75.76% 19.29%
4 2005-06-15 88.60 Skonto 4 1501 42.88% @ FK Riga 0 1446 34.40% 22.71%
5 2005-04-20 74.49 @ Venta 3 1367 38.47% Olimps Riga 0 1393 38.80% 22.73%
6 2005-06-19 74.06 FK Jurmala 3 1308 38.76% @ Olimps Riga 0 1283 38.51% 22.73%
7 2005-05-26 73.52 @ FK Riga 3 1350 39.12% Dinaburg 0 1372 38.15% 22.73%
8 2005-06-25 63.61 @ FK Jurmala 3 1382 45.59% FK Riga 0 1357 31.73% 22.68%
9 2005-08-28 60.23 FK Riga 3 1282 47.71% @ Olimps Riga 0 1191 29.64% 22.64%
10 2005-10-01 58.07 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1762 51.92% @ Ventspils 1 1636 25.55% 22.53%
11 2005-07-24 55.95 Olimps Riga 2 1165 34.02% @ Venta 0 1173 43.27% 22.71%
12 2005-07-17 49.19 @ FK Jurmala 4 1421 60.95% Venta 0 1258 17.02% 22.02%
13 2005-05-08 46.50 FK Riga 2 1317 43.07% @ Olimps Riga 0 1260 34.22% 22.71%
14 2005-04-10 45.86 Skonto 3 1579 56.31% @ Venta 0 1415 21.35% 22.33%
15 2005-04-10 43.92 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1541 57.43% Olimps Riga 0 1415 20.30% 22.27%
16 2005-05-26 42.92 @ FK Jurmala 3 1259 7.36% Skonto 2 1638 72.31% 20.33%
17 2005-10-01 42.25 Skonto 3 1646 58.38% @ FK Jurmala 0 1461 19.41% 22.21%
18 2005-05-17 41.63 @ Dinaburg 3 1330 58.73% Olimps Riga 0 1191 19.08% 22.19%
19 2005-05-26 38.56 @ Olimps Riga 2 1150 16.42% Venta 1 1370 61.61% 21.97%
20 2005-05-04 38.33 @ Dinaburg 1 1295 20.09% Venta 0 1473 57.65% 22.26%
21 2005-10-01 36.65 @ Olimps Riga 5 1132 53.80% Venta 2 1040 23.74% 22.45%
22 2005-07-20 35.99 Dinaburg 3 1300 47.64% @ Venta 1 1209 29.72% 22.64%
23 2005-05-12 35.29 @ Skonto 3 1587 62.26% Venta 0 1409 15.83% 21.91%
24 2005-10-16 33.52 FK Riga 4 1301 67.53% @ Venta 0 1004 11.20% 21.27%
25 2005-05-04 32.78 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1626 46.95% Skonto 2 1591 30.40% 22.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-10-16 75.0 @ Dinaburg 2 1350 4.62% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1820 76.28% 19.10%
2 2005-06-19 73.9 @ Ventspils 2 1579 40.68% Skonto 2 1589 36.59% 22.73%
3 2005-10-30 72.6 @ Skonto 1 1684 25.10% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1814 52.39% 22.51%
4 2005-08-21 71.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1724 51.65% Skonto 1 1650 25.82% 22.53%
5 2005-09-21 70.8 @ Skonto 1 1648 43.94% Ventspils 1 1635 33.36% 22.70%
6 2005-08-06 70.5 @ Dinaburg 3 1310 10.25% Ventspils 3 1625 68.66% 21.09%
7 2005-06-25 69.7 @ Skonto 1 1590 37.02% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1626 40.25% 22.73%
8 2005-05-26 67.7 @ FK Jurmala 3 1259 7.36% Skonto 2 1638 72.31% 20.33%
9 2005-05-29 65.0 @ FK Jurmala 2 1302 11.34% Ventspils 2 1596 67.36% 21.30%
10 2005-10-23 64.7 @ FK Riga 1 1334 8.09% Skonto 1 1695 71.35% 20.56%
11 2005-05-04 63.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1626 46.95% Skonto 2 1591 30.40% 22.66%
12 2005-08-28 63.4 @ Skonto 1 1654 71.60% Dinaburg 1 1338 7.90% 20.50%
13 2005-09-17 63.1 @ Ventspils 1 1645 70.88% FK Riga 1 1343 8.45% 20.66%
14 2005-04-30 62.7 @ Venta 0 1467 21.25% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1632 56.42% 22.33%
15 2005-07-23 62.3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1678 48.31% Ventspils 1 1632 29.06% 22.63%
16 2005-05-25 61.2 @ Ventspils 3 1483 16.04% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1708 62.03% 21.93%
17 2005-05-17 59.6 @ Venta 2 1374 56.73% FK Jurmala 2 1255 20.96% 22.31%
18 2005-07-24 59.4 @ Dinaburg 2 1336 49.74% FK Riga 2 1278 27.66% 22.59%
19 2005-06-13 59.3 @ Ventspils 1 1589 70.72% Dinaburg 1 1290 8.58% 20.70%
20 2005-10-01 56.6 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1762 51.92% @ Ventspils 1 1636 25.55% 22.53%
21 2005-04-30 56.5 FK Riga 2 1196 3.18% @ Skonto 0 1688 78.81% 18.00%
22 2005-04-16 55.6 Skonto 3 1625 52.04% @ Ventspils 1 1499 25.44% 22.52%
23 2005-08-21 55.4 @ FK Riga 1 1277 20.46% FK Jurmala 1 1451 57.26% 22.28%
24 2005-05-12 54.6 @ Ventspils 0 1506 59.16% FK Riga 0 1363 18.68% 22.16%
25 2005-05-26 54.2 @ Olimps Riga 2 1150 16.42% Venta 1 1370 61.61% 21.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-10-23 26.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 9 1811 87.18% Venta 0 970 0.51% 12.31%
2 2005-08-28 26.9 Ventspils 6 1633 79.65% @ Venta 0 1064 2.77% 17.58%
3 2005-09-17 27.2 @ Skonto 3 1644 81.68% Venta 0 1052 1.91% 16.41%
4 2005-11-05 27.3 @ Ventspils 2 1616 83.54% Venta 0 950 1.29% 15.17%
5 2005-10-30 28.4 Dinaburg 3 1343 72.11% @ Venta 0 967 7.51% 20.38%
6 2005-10-16 28.8 FK Riga 4 1301 67.53% @ Venta 0 1004 11.20% 21.27%
7 2005-07-08 29.4 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1646 78.18% Olimps Riga 0 1173 3.52% 18.30%
8 2005-09-17 30.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1730 80.54% @ Olimps Riga 0 1131 2.37% 17.09%
9 2005-08-21 30.5 @ Dinaburg 3 1308 65.20% Venta 0 1094 13.21% 21.59%
10 2005-10-16 31.1 @ Skonto 3 1689 79.66% Olimps Riga 0 1169 2.76% 17.57%
11 2005-06-25 31.7 Ventspils 3 1578 71.82% @ Olimps Riga 0 1209 7.73% 20.45%
12 2005-05-12 32.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1666 75.57% @ Olimps Riga 0 1214 5.07% 19.36%
13 2005-07-17 32.3 @ FK Jurmala 4 1421 60.95% Venta 0 1258 17.02% 22.02%
14 2005-05-17 32.8 @ Dinaburg 3 1330 58.73% Olimps Riga 0 1191 19.08% 22.19%
15 2005-08-20 33.3 @ Ventspils 6 1619 75.99% Olimps Riga 1 1206 4.81% 19.21%
16 2005-04-24 34.5 Venta 2 1442 61.73% @ FK Riga 0 1221 16.32% 21.96%
17 2005-08-07 34.5 @ Skonto 4 1619 71.76% FK Riga 0 1300 7.78% 20.46%
18 2005-10-30 34.5 Ventspils 1 1612 75.13% @ Olimps Riga 0 1170 5.36% 19.51%
19 2005-04-10 35.0 Ventspils 2 1475 62.45% @ FK Riga 0 1245 15.66% 21.89%
20 2005-08-28 35.9 FK Riga 3 1282 47.71% @ Olimps Riga 0 1191 29.64% 22.64%
21 2005-04-16 36.1 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1584 71.47% @ FK Riga 0 1221 8.00% 20.53%
22 2005-05-08 36.2 @ Skonto 3 1558 65.98% Dinaburg 0 1333 12.53% 21.50%
23 2005-07-31 36.3 Skonto 1 1613 72.96% @ Olimps Riga 0 1221 6.88% 20.16%
24 2005-08-06 36.6 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1721 81.23% @ Venta 1 1097 2.08% 16.69%
25 2005-07-19 36.8 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1659 71.45% @ FK Riga 0 1296 8.01% 20.53%