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2006 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Ventspils

62 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ditton Daugavpils

8.65 points above expected

38 points · 29.35 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dizvanagi Rezekne

11.39 points below expected

2 points · 13.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ventspils 28 19 5 4 62 48 23 +25 55.65 +6.35
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 28 18 6 4 60 66 20 +46 64.13 -4.13
3 Skonto 28 16 6 6 54 55 21 +34 56.90 -2.90
4 Dinaburg 28 12 5 11 41 33 38 -5 34.77 +6.23
5 Ditton Daugavpils 28 10 8 10 38 33 31 +2 29.35 +8.65
6 FK Jurmala 28 11 4 13 37 36 36 0 38.60 -1.60
7 FK Riga 28 6 4 18 22 21 57 -36 23.64 -1.64
8 Dizvanagi Rezekne 28 0 2 26 2 11 77 -66 13.39 -11.39

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ditton Daugavpils 38 29.35 +8.65
2 Ventspils 62 55.65 +6.35
3 Dinaburg 41 34.77 +6.23
4 FK Jurmala 37 38.60 -1.60
5 FK Riga 22 23.64 -1.64

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 13.39 -11.39
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 60 64.13 -4.13
3 Skonto 54 56.90 -2.90
4 FK Riga 22 23.64 -1.64
5 FK Jurmala 37 38.60 -1.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinaburg 4 Sep 16 – Sep 28 1 in 171
2 FK Riga 2 Oct 21 – Oct 29 1 in 38
3 Ventspils 6 Jun 4 – Jul 22 1 in 34
4 Ditton Daugavpils 2 Apr 8 – Apr 15 1 in 13
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 Aug 20 – Sep 20 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Jurmala 3 Oct 15 – Oct 29 1 in 62
2 Skonto 3 Sep 16 – Sep 28 1 in 52
3 Dizvanagi Rezekne 11 Jun 13 – Sep 16 1 in 24
4 FK Riga 5 Aug 1 – Sep 16 1 in 5
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 Jun 13 – Jun 13 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ventspils 16 Apr 8 – Aug 1 1 in 103
2 FK Riga 4 Oct 1 – Oct 29 1 in 58
3 Ditton Daugavpils 5 Apr 30 – May 21 1 in 32
4 Dinaburg 4 Sep 16 – Sep 28 1 in 16
5 FK Jurmala 3 Apr 22 – Apr 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 May 21 – Jun 13 1 in 53
2 Dizvanagi Rezekne 28 Apr 8 – Nov 5 1 in 27
3 Skonto 3 May 13 – May 23 1 in 10
4 Ventspils 2 Aug 1 – Aug 20 1 in 6
5 FK Jurmala 4 Apr 8 – Apr 26 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ventspils 1566 62 -88 7 10.0 -3.0
Liepajas Metalurgs 1710 60 -2 10 11.6 -1.6
Skonto 1631 54 +54 11 11.6 -0.6
Dinaburg 1404 41 +36 8 4.4 +3.6
Ditton Daugavpils 1345 38 +22 4 4.3 -0.3
FK Jurmala 1419 37 -31 6 8.2 -2.2
FK Riga 1246 22 +97 10 3.9 +6.1
Dizvanagi Rezekne 980 2 -31 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DIN DD DR FJ FR LM SKO VEN
Dinaburg —
2-1-1
6.24
4-0-0
8.71
1-1-2
4.58
3-1-0
7.57
0-1-3
1.84
1-0-3
2.50
1-1-2
2.47
Ditton Daugavpils
1-1-2
5.00
 —
4-0-0
8.32
2-1-1
4.29
2-1-1
7.00
1-1-2
1.37
0-3-1
1.92
0-1-3
2.06
Dizvanagi Rezekne
0-0-4
2.57
0-0-4
2.96
 —
0-0-4
1.74
0-1-3
3.51
0-1-3
0.77
0-0-4
0.90
0-0-4
0.96
FK Jurmala
2-1-1
6.67
1-1-2
6.97
4-0-0
9.59
 —
2-0-2
8.25
1-1-2
1.84
0-0-4
2.58
1-1-2
2.64
FK Riga
0-1-3
3.69
1-1-2
4.25
3-1-0
7.75
2-0-2
3.02
 —
0-0-4
1.17
0-1-3
1.50
0-0-4
1.72
Liepajas Metalurgs
3-1-0
9.48
2-1-1
9.99
3-1-0
10.71
2-1-1
9.47
4-0-0
10.21
 —
2-1-1
6.66
2-1-1
6.97
Skonto
3-0-1
8.79
1-3-0
9.39
4-0-0
10.54
4-0-0
8.70
3-1-0
9.85
1-1-2
4.58
 —
0-1-3
5.87
Ventspils
2-1-1
8.82
3-1-0
9.25
4-0-0
10.46
2-1-1
8.63
4-0-0
9.62
1-1-2
4.28
3-1-0
5.37
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +10.5
Allowed 0.94 -9.9
Differential 0.95 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%11.16%7.14%2.23%1.79%2.68%32.14%
111.16%8.93%7.59%4.02%0.45%2.23%34.38%
27.14%7.59%0.89%0.89%0.45%0.45%17.41%
32.23%4.02%0.89%0.89%——8.04%
41.79%0.45%0.45%———2.68%
5+2.68%2.23%0.45%———5.36%
Total32.14%34.38%17.41%8.04%2.68%5.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.35 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.33
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%14.29%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
114.29%10.71%3.57%3.57%——32.14%
214.29%7.14%—3.57%——25.00%
3—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total32.14%28.57%21.43%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.36 -0.18
SD 1.09 1.39 1.91
CV 0.93 1.03 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%3.57%———32.14%
110.71%10.71%10.71%——3.57%35.71%
23.57%7.14%3.57%—3.57%—17.86%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%39.29%17.86%—3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.11 +0.07
SD 1.12 1.34 1.74
CV 0.95 1.21 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%14.29%10.71%—10.71%64.29%
1——10.71%14.29%—7.14%32.14%
2—————3.57%3.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%25.00%25.00%—21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 2.75 -2.36
SD 0.57 1.96 1.83
CV 1.44 0.71 —
Max 2 7 +0
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%7.14%———25.00%
114.29%10.71%14.29%3.57%—3.57%46.43%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total28.57%39.29%21.43%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.44 2.05
CV 1.01 1.12 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%7.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%53.57%
17.14%3.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%32.14%
23.57%3.57%————7.14%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total21.43%25.00%17.86%10.71%14.29%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 2.04 -1.29
SD 1.14 1.69 2.17
CV 1.52 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
1—10.71%3.57%———14.29%
210.71%17.86%————28.57%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+10.71%7.14%————17.86%
Total39.29%50.00%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 0.71 +1.64
SD 2.02 0.66 2.25
CV 0.86 0.92 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
17.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
217.86%10.71%3.57%———32.14%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+10.71%3.57%————14.29%
Total42.86%42.86%10.71%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.75 +1.21
SD 1.86 0.80 2.22
CV 0.94 1.07 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.57%—3.57%—7.14%
135.71%14.29%7.14%———57.14%
23.57%7.14%————10.71%
37.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total50.00%28.57%14.29%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.82 +0.89
SD 1.44 1.06 1.83
CV 0.84 1.29 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Liepajas Metalurgs 1710 60 64.13 -4.13 26.0% 52 54 60 64 68 74 79
Skonto 1631 54 56.90 -2.90 33.0% 39 44 53 57 61 67 70
Ventspils 1566 62 55.65 +6.35 87.0% 37 46 52 57 60 65 69
FK Jurmala 1419 37 38.60 -1.60 41.0% 27 30 34 39 42 48 56
Dinaburg 1404 41 34.77 +6.23 85.0% 22 25 30 34 39 46 56
Ditton Daugavpils 1345 38 29.35 +8.65 95.0% 16 20 26 29 33 37 41
FK Riga 1246 22 23.64 -1.64 43.0% 11 14 20 24 27 32 46
Dizvanagi Rezekne 980 2 13.39 -11.39 1.0% 2 6 10 13 17 22 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.36%
Slight Edge
43.75%17.86%38.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.63 Elo pts.
210 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
9%
Ventspils, 3rd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.72 * Some Luck: 4.72 to 7.08 * Lucky: 7.08 to 9.44 * Wild Swing: 9.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.39 * Close: 0.39 to 0.59 * Off: 0.59 to 0.79 * Way Off: 0.79 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.27 points
Some Luck
05.9015
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Way Off
00.491.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Ditton Daugavpils
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 232.74
2.78
Moderate Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
82%
Even
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Frequent
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Rare
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.31
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.63
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Ventspils9.00%36.00%51.00%3.00%1.00%———
Liepajas Metalurgs74.00%17.00%9.00%—————
Skonto17.00%45.00%35.00%3.00%————
Dinaburg—1.00%1.00%28.00%42.00%24.00%4.00%—
Ditton Daugavpils———5.00%31.00%41.00%21.00%2.00%
FK Jurmala—1.00%3.00%61.00%21.00%12.00%2.00%—
FK Riga——1.00%—4.00%22.00%66.00%7.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne————1.00%1.00%7.00%91.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dinaburg 96.00% 4.00% —
FK Jurmala 98.00% 2.00% —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Ventspils 100% — —
Ditton Daugavpils 77.00% 21.00% 2.00%
FK Riga 27.00% 66.00% 7.00%
Dizvanagi Rezekne 2.00% 7.00% 91.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2006-04-08 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-141.2 1348 1193 61.92% 18.39% 19.69%+0.82 +8.8 3
2006-04-08 @ Dinaburg L 1-241.2 1193 1348 19.69% 18.39% 61.92%-0.82 -8.8 0
2006-04-08 Ditton Daugavpils L 0-150.0 1393 1205 64.94% 18.17% 16.89%+0.98 -26.6 0
2006-04-08 @ FK Jurmala W 1-050.0 1205 1393 16.89% 18.17% 64.94%-0.98 +26.6 3
2006-04-08 Ventspils L 0-140.1 1324 1544 17.23% 18.20% 64.57%-0.96 -8.3 0
2006-04-08 @ FK Riga W 1-040.1 1544 1324 64.57% 18.20% 17.23%+0.96 +8.3 3
2006-04-09 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-068.6 1609 1685 32.54% 18.88% 48.58%-0.28 +1.7 1
2006-04-09 @ Skonto D 0-068.6 1685 1609 48.58% 18.88% 32.54%+0.28 -1.7 1
2006-04-15 Ditton Daugavpils L 0-336.9 1185 1232 36.46% 18.93% 44.61%-0.14 -43.5 0
2006-04-15 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-036.9 1232 1185 44.61% 18.93% 36.46%+0.14 +43.5 6
2006-04-15 FK Jurmala W 3-253.5 1684 1366 74.13% 16.99% 8.88%+1.60 +3.9 4
2006-04-15 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-353.5 1366 1684 8.88% 16.99% 74.13%-1.60 -3.9 0
2006-04-15 FK Riga W 1-041.0 1357 1316 48.85% 18.88% 32.28%+0.29 +14.4 6
2006-04-15 @ Dinaburg L 0-141.0 1316 1357 32.28% 18.88% 48.85%-0.29 -14.4 0
2006-04-15 Skonto W 1-059.0 1552 1610 35.06% 18.91% 46.03%-0.19 +19.3 6
2006-04-15 @ Ventspils L 0-159.0 1610 1552 46.03% 18.91% 35.06%+0.19 -19.3 1
2006-04-22 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-035.7 1301 1141 62.44% 18.36% 19.20%+0.85 +9.1 3
2006-04-22 @ FK Riga L 0-135.7 1141 1301 19.20% 18.36% 62.44%-0.85 -9.1 0
2006-04-22 Ditton Daugavpils D 0-060.1 1688 1276 78.66% 15.87% 5.47%+2.05 -8.5 5
2006-04-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-060.1 1276 1688 5.47% 15.87% 78.66%-2.05 +8.5 7
2006-04-22 Skonto L 0-241.0 1371 1591 17.30% 18.21% 64.49%-0.96 -15.6 6
2006-04-22 @ Dinaburg W 2-041.0 1591 1371 64.49% 18.21% 17.30%+0.96 +15.6 4
2006-04-22 Ventspils D 1-162.7 1362 1572 18.15% 18.28% 63.57%-0.91 +4.5 1
2006-04-22 @ FK Jurmala D 1-162.7 1572 1362 63.57% 18.28% 18.15%+0.91 -4.5 7
2006-04-26 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-130.4 1679 1132 83.25% 14.04% 2.71%+2.69 +4.7 8
2006-04-26 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-630.4 1132 1679 2.71% 14.04% 83.25%-2.69 -4.7 0
2006-04-26 Ditton Daugavpils W 2-142.5 1567 1284 72.11% 17.34% 10.55%+1.44 +4.9 10
2006-04-26 @ Ventspils L 1-242.5 1284 1567 10.55% 17.34% 72.11%-1.44 -4.9 7
2006-04-26 FK Jurmala D 1-157.2 1356 1367 41.60% 18.94% 39.45%+0.04 -0.2 7
2006-04-26 @ Dinaburg D 1-157.2 1367 1356 39.45% 18.94% 41.60%-0.04 +0.2 2
2006-04-26 Skonto L 1-440.5 1310 1607 11.90% 17.58% 70.52%-1.32 -13.5 3
2006-04-26 @ FK Riga W 4-140.5 1607 1310 70.52% 17.58% 11.90%+1.32 +13.5 7
2006-04-30 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-027.1 1620 1127 81.61% 14.80% 3.59%+2.43 +9.1 10
2006-04-30 @ Skonto L 0-627.1 1127 1620 3.59% 14.80% 81.61%-2.43 -9.1 0
2006-04-30 Dinaburg D 1-156.2 1279 1356 32.58% 18.88% 48.54%-0.27 +1.5 8
2006-04-30 @ Ditton Daugavpils D 1-156.2 1356 1279 48.54% 18.88% 32.58%+0.27 -1.5 8
2006-04-30 FK Riga W 3-035.7 1367 1297 52.53% 18.80% 28.68%+0.42 +35.6 5
2006-04-30 @ FK Jurmala L 0-335.7 1297 1367 28.68% 18.80% 52.53%-0.42 -35.6 3
2006-04-30 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-172.4 1572 1684 28.18% 18.78% 53.03%-0.44 +2.3 11
2006-04-30 @ Ventspils D 1-172.4 1684 1572 53.03% 18.78% 28.18%+0.44 -2.3 9
2006-05-06 Ditton Daugavpils D 0-051.2 1261 1281 40.42% 18.94% 40.64%+0.00 +0.0 4
2006-05-06 @ FK Riga D 0-051.2 1281 1261 40.64% 18.94% 40.42%+0.00 -0.0 9
2006-05-06 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-241.4 1354 1681 10.19% 17.27% 72.54%-1.47 -9.5 8
2006-05-06 @ Dinaburg W 2-041.4 1681 1354 72.54% 17.27% 10.19%+1.47 +9.5 12
2006-05-06 Skonto L 0-145.8 1403 1629 16.74% 18.16% 65.10%-0.99 -8.1 5
2006-05-06 @ FK Jurmala W 1-045.8 1629 1403 65.10% 18.16% 16.74%+0.99 +8.1 13
2006-05-07 Ventspils L 0-328.1 1118 1575 5.27% 15.78% 78.95%-2.08 -7.1 0
2006-05-07 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-028.1 1575 1118 78.95% 15.78% 5.27%+2.08 +7.1 14
2006-05-13 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-138.0 1395 1111 72.13% 17.34% 10.53%+1.44 +4.9 8
2006-05-13 @ FK Jurmala L 1-238.0 1111 1395 10.53% 17.34% 72.13%-1.44 -4.9 0
2006-05-13 Dinaburg W 3-250.5 1582 1345 68.95% 17.78% 13.27%+1.22 +5.8 17
2006-05-13 @ Ventspils L 2-350.5 1345 1582 13.27% 17.78% 68.95%-1.22 -5.8 8
2006-05-13 FK Riga W 5-033.2 1691 1261 79.36% 15.64% 4.99%+2.13 +10.8 15
2006-05-13 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-533.2 1261 1691 4.99% 15.64% 79.36%-2.13 -10.8 4
2006-05-13 Skonto D 1-162.5 1281 1637 8.79% 16.97% 74.24%-1.61 +6.7 10
2006-05-13 @ Ditton Daugavpils D 1-162.5 1637 1281 74.24% 16.97% 8.79%+1.61 -6.7 14
2006-05-17 FK Jurmala W 2-152.5 1287 1399 28.12% 18.78% 53.10%-0.44 +20.6 13
2006-05-17 @ Ditton Daugavpils L 1-252.5 1399 1287 53.10% 18.78% 28.12%+0.44 -20.6 8
2006-05-17 Dinaburg L 1-337.7 1106 1339 16.25% 18.12% 65.63%-1.02 -12.8 0
2006-05-17 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-137.7 1339 1106 65.63% 18.12% 16.25%+1.02 +12.8 11
2006-05-17 FK Riga W 1-036.1 1587 1250 75.19% 16.77% 8.04%+1.69 +4.0 20
2006-05-17 @ Ventspils L 0-136.1 1250 1587 8.04% 16.77% 75.19%-1.69 -4.0 4
2006-05-17 Skonto W 2-161.9 1702 1630 52.65% 18.79% 28.56%+0.43 +12.2 18
2006-05-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-261.9 1630 1702 28.56% 18.79% 52.65%-0.43 -12.2 14
2006-05-21 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-034.2 1308 1093 67.22% 17.97% 14.81%+1.11 +7.2 16
2006-05-21 @ Ditton Daugavpils L 0-134.2 1093 1308 14.81% 17.97% 67.22%-1.11 -7.2 0
2006-05-21 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-168.8 1379 1714 9.81% 17.19% 73.00%-1.50 +6.5 9
2006-05-21 @ FK Jurmala D 1-168.8 1714 1379 73.00% 17.19% 9.81%+1.50 -6.5 19
2006-05-22 Dinaburg D 0-051.6 1247 1352 28.97% 18.80% 52.23%-0.41 +2.4 5
2006-05-22 @ FK Riga D 0-051.6 1352 1247 52.23% 18.80% 28.97%+0.41 -2.4 12
2006-05-23 Ventspils D 1-171.5 1618 1591 46.90% 18.90% 34.19%+0.22 -1.2 15
2006-05-23 @ Skonto D 1-171.5 1591 1618 34.19% 18.90% 46.90%-0.22 +1.2 21
2006-06-04 Dinaburg W 1-042.1 1385 1349 48.14% 18.89% 32.97%+0.26 +14.6 12
2006-06-04 @ FK Jurmala L 0-142.1 1349 1385 32.97% 18.89% 48.14%-0.26 -14.6 12
2006-06-04 FK Riga W 5-135.1 1617 1249 76.73% 16.41% 6.86%+1.84 +10.1 18
2006-06-04 @ Skonto L 1-535.1 1249 1617 6.86% 16.41% 76.73%-1.84 -10.1 5
2006-06-04 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-055.7 1086 1707 2.23% 13.52% 84.25%-2.87 +9.4 1
2006-06-04 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-055.7 1707 1086 84.25% 13.52% 2.23%+2.87 -9.4 20
2006-06-04 Ventspils L 0-140.0 1315 1593 13.07% 17.75% 69.18%-1.23 -6.4 16
2006-06-04 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 1-040.0 1593 1315 69.18% 17.75% 13.07%+1.23 +6.4 24
2006-06-12 Ditton Daugavpils L 1-348.0 1335 1309 46.75% 18.91% 34.35%+0.21 -31.9 12
2006-06-12 @ Dinaburg W 3-148.0 1309 1335 34.35% 18.91% 46.75%-0.21 +31.9 19
2006-06-13 FK Jurmala W 2-153.6 1239 1400 22.70% 18.57% 58.73%-0.68 +22.7 8
2006-06-13 @ FK Riga L 1-253.6 1400 1239 58.73% 18.57% 22.70%+0.68 -22.7 12
2006-06-13 Skonto L 0-229.5 1096 1627 3.57% 14.78% 81.65%-2.44 -3.2 1
2006-06-13 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-029.5 1627 1096 81.65% 14.78% 3.57%+2.44 +3.2 21
2006-06-13 Ventspils L 0-164.5 1698 1599 55.98% 18.69% 25.33%+0.56 -23.0 20
2006-06-13 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-064.5 1599 1698 25.33% 18.69% 55.98%-0.56 +23.0 27
2006-06-18 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 7-128.0 1622 1092 82.74% 14.29% 2.97%+2.61 +6.1 30
2006-06-18 @ Ventspils L 1-728.0 1092 1622 2.97% 14.29% 82.74%-2.61 -6.1 1
2006-06-18 Ditton Daugavpils L 0-435.3 1262 1341 32.23% 18.88% 48.90%-0.29 -51.3 8
2006-06-18 @ FK Riga W 4-035.3 1341 1262 48.90% 18.88% 32.23%+0.29 +51.3 22
2006-06-18 FK Jurmala W 2-041.0 1630 1377 70.11% 17.63% 12.25%+1.29 +11.3 24
2006-06-18 @ Skonto L 0-241.0 1377 1630 12.25% 17.63% 70.11%-1.29 -11.3 12
2006-06-22 Ditton Daugavpils D 0-062.2 1642 1392 69.87% 17.66% 12.47%+1.28 -6.5 25
2006-06-22 @ Skonto D 0-062.2 1392 1642 12.47% 17.66% 69.87%-1.28 +6.5 23
2006-06-22 FK Jurmala L 0-133.6 1086 1366 12.92% 17.73% 69.35%-1.24 -6.3 1
2006-06-22 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-033.6 1366 1086 69.35% 17.73% 12.92%+1.24 +6.3 15
2006-06-22 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-431.2 1210 1675 5.05% 15.67% 79.28%-2.12 -8.8 8
2006-06-22 @ FK Riga W 4-031.2 1675 1210 79.28% 15.67% 5.05%+2.12 +8.8 23
2006-07-02 FK Jurmala W 7-140.7 1684 1372 73.81% 17.05% 9.14%+1.57 +19.5 26
2006-07-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-740.7 1372 1684 9.14% 17.05% 73.81%-1.57 -19.5 15
2006-07-05 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-031.6 1303 1080 67.86% 17.90% 14.24%+1.15 +13.1 15
2006-07-05 @ Dinaburg L 0-231.6 1080 1303 14.24% 17.90% 67.86%-1.15 -13.0 1
2006-07-06 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-167.6 1635 1703 33.67% 18.90% 47.43%-0.24 +18.6 28
2006-07-06 @ Skonto L 1-267.6 1703 1635 47.43% 18.90% 33.67%+0.24 -18.7 26
2006-07-06 Ventspils L 0-232.8 1201 1628 6.15% 16.15% 77.70%-1.94 -5.7 8
2006-07-06 @ FK Riga W 2-032.8 1628 1201 77.70% 16.15% 6.15%+1.94 +5.7 33
2006-07-08 Ditton Daugavpils W 6-143.2 1353 1398 36.70% 18.93% 44.37%-0.13 +68.2 18
2006-07-08 @ FK Jurmala L 1-643.2 1398 1353 44.37% 18.93% 36.70%+0.13 -68.2 23
2006-07-15 Ditton Daugavpils L 0-133.9 1067 1330 14.00% 17.87% 68.13%-1.16 -6.8 1
2006-07-15 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-033.9 1330 1067 68.13% 17.87% 14.00%+1.16 +6.8 26
2006-07-15 FK Riga W 2-034.8 1316 1196 58.32% 18.59% 23.09%+0.66 +20.3 18
2006-07-15 @ Dinaburg L 0-234.8 1196 1316 23.09% 18.59% 58.32%-0.66 -20.3 8
2006-07-18 Skonto W 1-059.9 1634 1654 40.31% 18.94% 40.75%-0.01 +17.4 36
2006-07-18 @ Ventspils L 0-159.9 1654 1634 40.75% 18.94% 40.31%+0.01 -17.4 28
2006-07-22 Dinaburg W 2-038.8 1636 1336 73.16% 17.17% 9.67%+1.52 +9.0 31
2006-07-22 @ Skonto L 0-238.8 1336 1636 9.67% 17.17% 73.16%-1.52 -9.0 18
2006-07-22 Ventspils L 1-252.2 1421 1651 16.45% 18.13% 65.42%-1.01 -7.5 18
2006-07-22 @ FK Jurmala W 2-152.2 1651 1421 65.42% 18.13% 16.45%+1.01 +7.5 39
2006-07-23 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-139.8 1175 1060 57.81% 18.61% 23.57%+0.64 +17.9 11
2006-07-23 @ FK Riga L 1-339.8 1060 1175 23.57% 18.61% 57.81%-0.64 -17.9 1
2006-07-30 FK Jurmala L 0-141.6 1327 1414 31.27% 18.86% 49.87%-0.32 -14.0 18
2006-07-30 @ Dinaburg W 1-041.6 1414 1327 49.87% 18.86% 31.27%+0.32 +14.0 21
2006-08-01 Ditton Daugavpils D 1-165.4 1659 1337 74.36% 16.94% 8.70%+1.62 -6.7 40
2006-08-01 @ Ventspils D 1-165.4 1337 1659 8.70% 16.94% 74.36%-1.62 +6.7 27
2006-08-01 Skonto L 1-240.2 1193 1645 5.39% 15.83% 78.78%-2.06 -2.5 11
2006-08-01 @ FK Riga W 2-140.2 1645 1193 78.78% 15.83% 5.39%+2.06 +2.5 34
2006-08-19 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-025.3 1648 1042 84.81% 13.20% 1.99%+2.97 +4.9 37
2006-08-19 @ Skonto L 0-625.3 1042 1648 1.99% 13.20% 84.81%-2.97 -4.9 1
2006-08-19 Dinaburg L 2-452.1 1344 1313 47.43% 18.90% 33.67%+0.24 -28.9 27
2006-08-19 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 4-252.1 1313 1344 33.67% 18.90% 47.43%-0.24 +28.9 21
2006-08-20 FK Riga W 2-139.6 1428 1191 68.93% 17.78% 13.29%+1.21 +6.1 24
2006-08-20 @ FK Jurmala L 1-239.6 1191 1428 13.29% 17.78% 68.93%-1.21 -6.1 11
2006-08-20 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-265.0 1652 1685 38.51% 18.94% 42.55%-0.07 -15.7 40
2006-08-20 @ Ventspils W 2-165.0 1685 1652 42.55% 18.94% 38.51%+0.07 +15.7 29
2006-08-23 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-625.8 1037 1700 1.79% 12.91% 85.30%-3.06 -4.3 1
2006-08-23 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 6-025.8 1700 1037 85.30% 12.91% 1.79%+3.06 +4.3 32
2006-08-26 FK Riga W 3-139.7 1315 1185 59.42% 18.54% 22.05%+0.71 +16.9 30
2006-08-26 @ Ditton Daugavpils L 1-339.7 1185 1315 22.05% 18.54% 59.42%-0.71 -16.9 11
2006-08-27 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-248.6 1342 1705 8.52% 16.90% 74.58%-1.64 -4.0 21
2006-08-27 @ Dinaburg W 2-148.6 1705 1342 74.58% 16.90% 8.52%+1.64 +4.0 35
2006-08-28 FK Jurmala W 3-149.9 1653 1434 67.59% 17.93% 14.48%+1.13 +11.5 40
2006-08-28 @ Skonto L 1-349.9 1434 1653 14.48% 17.93% 67.59%-1.13 -11.5 24
2006-08-28 Ventspils L 1-333.4 1033 1636 2.45% 13.77% 83.78%-2.78 -1.9 1
2006-08-28 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-133.4 1636 1033 83.78% 13.77% 2.45%+2.78 +1.9 43
2006-09-10 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-027.0 1422 1031 77.78% 16.13% 6.09%+1.95 +8.2 27
2006-09-10 @ FK Jurmala L 0-327.0 1031 1422 6.09% 16.13% 77.78%-1.95 -8.2 1
2006-09-10 Dinaburg W 3-037.2 1638 1338 73.14% 17.17% 9.69%+1.52 +13.1 46
2006-09-10 @ Ventspils L 0-337.2 1338 1638 9.69% 17.17% 73.14%-1.52 -13.1 21
2006-09-10 FK Riga W 3-137.8 1709 1168 83.07% 14.13% 2.80%+2.66 +2.2 38
2006-09-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-337.8 1168 1709 2.80% 14.13% 83.07%-2.66 -2.2 11
2006-09-10 Skonto L 0-239.8 1332 1664 9.93% 17.22% 72.85%-1.49 -9.2 30
2006-09-10 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 2-039.8 1664 1332 72.85% 17.22% 9.93%+1.49 +9.2 43
2006-09-16 FK Jurmala D 0-053.3 1323 1430 28.64% 18.80% 52.56%-0.42 +2.5 31
2006-09-16 @ Ditton Daugavpils D 0-053.3 1430 1323 52.56% 18.80% 28.64%+0.42 -2.5 28
2006-09-16 Dinaburg L 0-230.7 1023 1325 11.57% 17.52% 70.91%-1.35 -10.7 1
2006-09-16 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-030.7 1325 1023 70.91% 17.52% 11.57%+1.35 +10.7 24
2006-09-16 FK Riga W 4-028.7 1651 1166 81.36% 14.90% 3.74%+2.40 +6.5 49
2006-09-16 @ Ventspils L 0-428.7 1166 1651 3.74% 14.90% 81.36%-2.40 -6.5 11
2006-09-16 Skonto W 3-161.5 1711 1673 48.30% 18.88% 32.82%+0.27 +23.8 41
2006-09-16 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-361.5 1673 1711 32.82% 18.88% 48.30%-0.27 -23.8 43
2006-09-20 FK Jurmala W 1-046.7 1658 1428 68.41% 17.84% 13.75%+1.18 +6.7 52
2006-09-20 @ Ventspils L 0-146.7 1428 1658 13.75% 17.84% 68.41%-1.18 -6.7 28
2006-09-20 Dinaburg L 0-258.5 1650 1336 73.95% 17.02% 9.03%+1.58 -57.0 43
2006-09-20 @ Skonto W 2-058.5 1336 1650 9.03% 17.02% 73.95%-1.58 +57.0 27
2006-09-20 FK Riga D 0-050.7 1012 1159 24.16% 18.64% 57.20%-0.61 +3.5 2
2006-09-20 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne D 0-050.7 1159 1012 57.20% 18.64% 24.16%+0.61 -3.5 12
2006-09-20 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-248.3 1325 1735 6.71% 16.36% 76.93%-1.86 -3.1 31
2006-09-20 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 2-148.3 1735 1325 76.93% 16.36% 6.71%+1.86 +3.1 44
2006-09-24 Ventspils W 2-167.3 1393 1664 13.44% 17.80% 68.76%-1.20 +26.5 30
2006-09-24 @ Dinaburg L 1-267.3 1664 1393 68.76% 17.80% 13.44%+1.20 -26.5 52
2006-09-28 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-137.3 1322 1016 73.50% 17.11% 9.39%+1.54 +4.4 34
2006-09-28 @ Ditton Daugavpils L 1-237.3 1016 1322 9.39% 17.11% 73.50%-1.54 -4.4 2
2006-09-28 Dinaburg L 0-134.4 1156 1419 14.00% 17.87% 68.13%-1.16 -6.8 12
2006-09-28 @ FK Riga W 1-034.4 1419 1156 68.13% 17.87% 14.00%+1.16 +6.8 33
2006-09-28 Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-066.2 1421 1738 10.76% 17.38% 71.86%-1.42 +29.4 31
2006-09-28 @ FK Jurmala L 0-166.2 1738 1421 71.86% 17.38% 10.76%+1.42 -29.4 44
2006-09-28 Ventspils L 0-157.8 1593 1638 36.79% 18.93% 44.28%-0.13 -16.0 43
2006-09-28 @ Skonto W 1-057.8 1638 1593 44.28% 18.93% 36.79%+0.13 +16.0 55
2006-10-01 FK Jurmala L 0-260.8 1654 1451 66.30% 18.05% 15.64%+1.06 -51.1 55
2006-10-01 @ Ventspils W 2-060.8 1451 1654 15.64% 18.05% 66.30%-1.06 +51.1 34
2006-10-01 FK Riga L 2-540.6 1011 1149 25.20% 18.68% 56.12%-0.57 -23.2 2
2006-10-01 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 5-240.6 1149 1011 56.12% 18.68% 25.20%+0.57 +23.2 15
2006-10-02 Ditton Daugavpils W 2-147.3 1708 1326 77.37% 16.24% 6.38%+1.91 +3.0 47
2006-10-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-247.3 1326 1708 6.38% 16.24% 77.37%-1.91 -3.0 34
2006-10-02 Skonto L 0-641.8 1426 1577 23.76% 18.62% 57.62%-0.63 -57.8 33
2006-10-02 @ Dinaburg W 6-041.8 1577 1426 57.62% 18.62% 23.76%+0.63 +57.8 46
2006-10-14 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-227.7 988 1711 1.30% 12.04% 86.66%-3.35 -1.1 2
2006-10-14 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 2-027.7 1711 988 86.66% 12.04% 1.30%+3.35 +1.1 50
2006-10-15 Dinaburg L 0-153.1 1502 1368 59.77% 18.52% 21.71%+0.72 -24.5 34
2006-10-15 @ FK Jurmala W 1-053.1 1368 1502 21.71% 18.52% 59.77%-0.72 +24.5 36
2006-10-15 FK Riga D 1-159.9 1635 1172 80.58% 15.21% 4.21%+2.29 -7.9 47
2006-10-15 @ Skonto D 1-159.9 1172 1635 4.21% 15.21% 80.58%-2.29 +7.9 16
2006-10-15 Ventspils L 0-140.6 1323 1603 12.95% 17.73% 69.32%-1.24 -6.3 34
2006-10-15 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 1-040.6 1603 1323 69.32% 17.73% 12.95%+1.24 +6.3 58
2006-10-18 Dinaburg D 1-169.3 1712 1393 74.27% 16.96% 8.77%+1.61 -6.7 51
2006-10-18 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-169.3 1393 1712 8.77% 16.96% 74.27%-1.61 +6.7 37
2006-10-21 Ditton Daugavpils W 1-040.0 1399 1317 53.99% 18.76% 27.25%+0.48 +12.4 40
2006-10-21 @ Dinaburg L 0-140.0 1317 1399 27.25% 18.76% 53.99%-0.48 -12.5 34
2006-10-21 FK Jurmala W 2-049.7 1180 1477 11.85% 17.57% 70.58%-1.32 +54.4 19
2006-10-21 @ FK Riga L 0-249.7 1477 1180 70.58% 17.57% 11.85%+1.32 -54.4 34
2006-10-21 Skonto L 0-129.7 987 1627 2.02% 13.25% 84.73%-2.95 -1.0 2
2006-10-21 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-029.7 1627 987 84.73% 13.25% 2.02%+2.95 +1.0 50
2006-10-21 Ventspils W 4-050.6 1706 1609 55.71% 18.70% 25.60%+0.55 +42.2 54
2006-10-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-450.6 1609 1706 25.60% 18.70% 55.71%-0.55 -42.2 58
2006-10-25 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-062.0 1305 1748 5.64% 15.95% 78.41%-2.02 +60.2 37
2006-10-25 @ Ditton Daugavpils L 0-262.0 1748 1305 78.41% 15.95% 5.64%+2.02 -60.2 54
2006-10-29 Dizvanagi Rezekne W 1-029.5 1567 986 84.17% 13.56% 2.27%+2.85 +1.1 61
2006-10-29 @ Ventspils L 0-129.5 986 1567 2.27% 13.56% 84.17%-2.85 -1.1 2
2006-10-29 Dinaburg W 2-043.9 1688 1412 71.65% 17.41% 10.94%+1.40 +10.1 57
2006-10-29 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-243.9 1412 1688 10.94% 17.41% 71.65%-1.40 -10.1 40
2006-10-29 FK Riga L 0-148.4 1365 1234 59.43% 18.54% 22.03%+0.71 -24.3 37
2006-10-29 @ Ditton Daugavpils W 1-048.4 1234 1365 22.03% 18.54% 59.43%-0.71 +24.3 22
2006-10-29 Skonto L 1-252.1 1423 1628 18.55% 18.31% 63.14%-0.89 -8.3 34
2006-10-29 @ FK Jurmala W 2-152.1 1628 1423 63.14% 18.31% 18.55%+0.89 +8.3 53
2006-11-05 Ditton Daugavpils D 2-269.8 1636 1340 72.86% 17.22% 9.92%+1.49 -4.8 54
2006-11-05 @ Skonto D 2-269.8 1340 1636 9.92% 17.22% 72.86%-1.49 +4.8 38
2006-11-05 FK Jurmala L 1-333.9 985 1414 6.06% 16.12% 77.82%-1.95 -4.9 2
2006-11-05 @ Dizvanagi Rezekne W 3-133.9 1414 985 77.82% 16.12% 6.06%+1.95 +4.9 37
2006-11-05 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-533.7 1259 1698 5.77% 16.00% 78.24%-2.00 -12.5 22
2006-11-05 @ FK Riga W 5-033.7 1698 1259 78.24% 16.00% 5.77%+2.00 +12.5 60
2006-11-05 Ventspils D 3-372.9 1402 1568 22.16% 18.54% 59.30%-0.70 +2.2 41
2006-11-05 @ Dinaburg D 3-372.9 1568 1402 59.30% 18.54% 22.16%+0.70 -2.2 62

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-10-25 5.64% @ Ditton Daugavpils 1305 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1748 0
2 2006-09-20 9.03% Dinaburg 1336 2 @ Skonto 1650 0
3 2006-09-28 10.76% @ FK Jurmala 1421 1 Liepajas Metalurgs 1738 0
4 2006-10-21 11.85% @ FK Riga 1180 2 FK Jurmala 1477 0
5 2006-09-24 13.44% @ Dinaburg 1393 2 Ventspils 1664 1
6 2006-10-01 15.64% FK Jurmala 1451 2 @ Ventspils 1654 0
7 2006-04-08 16.89% Ditton Daugavpils 1205 1 @ FK Jurmala 1393 0
8 2006-10-15 21.71% Dinaburg 1368 1 @ FK Jurmala 1502 0
9 2006-10-29 22.03% FK Riga 1234 1 @ Ditton Daugavpils 1365 0
10 2006-06-13 22.70% @ FK Riga 1239 2 FK Jurmala 1400 1
11 2006-06-13 25.33% Ventspils 1599 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1698 0
12 2006-05-17 28.12% @ Ditton Daugavpils 1287 2 FK Jurmala 1399 1
13 2006-07-06 33.67% @ Skonto 1635 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1703 1
14 2006-08-19 33.67% Dinaburg 1313 4 @ Ditton Daugavpils 1344 2
15 2006-06-12 34.35% Ditton Daugavpils 1309 3 @ Dinaburg 1335 1
16 2006-04-15 35.06% @ Ventspils 1552 1 Skonto 1610 0
17 2006-07-08 36.70% @ FK Jurmala 1353 6 Ditton Daugavpils 1398 1
18 2006-07-18 40.31% @ Ventspils 1634 1 Skonto 1654 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-07-08 68.24 @ FK Jurmala 6 1353 36.70% Ditton Daugavpils 1 1398 44.37% 18.93%
2 2006-10-25 60.16 @ Ditton Daugavpils 2 1305 5.64% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1748 78.41% 15.95%
3 2006-10-02 57.82 Skonto 6 1577 57.62% @ Dinaburg 0 1426 23.76% 18.62%
4 2006-09-20 56.99 Dinaburg 2 1336 9.03% @ Skonto 0 1650 73.95% 17.02%
5 2006-10-21 54.43 @ FK Riga 2 1180 11.85% FK Jurmala 0 1477 70.58% 17.57%
6 2006-06-18 51.34 Ditton Daugavpils 4 1341 48.90% @ FK Riga 0 1262 32.23% 18.88%
7 2006-10-01 51.13 FK Jurmala 2 1451 15.64% @ Ventspils 0 1654 66.30% 18.05%
8 2006-04-15 43.55 Ditton Daugavpils 3 1232 44.61% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1185 36.46% 18.93%
9 2006-10-21 42.16 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1706 55.71% Ventspils 0 1609 25.60% 18.70%
10 2006-04-30 35.60 @ FK Jurmala 3 1367 52.53% FK Riga 0 1297 28.68% 18.80%
11 2006-06-12 31.91 Ditton Daugavpils 3 1309 34.35% @ Dinaburg 1 1335 46.75% 18.91%
12 2006-09-28 29.39 @ FK Jurmala 1 1421 10.76% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1738 71.86% 17.38%
13 2006-08-19 28.90 Dinaburg 4 1313 33.67% @ Ditton Daugavpils 2 1344 47.43% 18.90%
14 2006-04-08 26.56 Ditton Daugavpils 1 1205 16.89% @ FK Jurmala 0 1393 64.94% 18.17%
15 2006-09-24 26.51 @ Dinaburg 2 1393 13.44% Ventspils 1 1664 68.76% 17.80%
16 2006-10-15 24.48 Dinaburg 1 1368 21.71% @ FK Jurmala 0 1502 59.77% 18.52%
17 2006-10-29 24.35 FK Riga 1 1234 22.03% @ Ditton Daugavpils 0 1365 59.43% 18.54%
18 2006-09-16 23.79 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1711 48.30% Skonto 1 1673 32.82% 18.88%
19 2006-10-01 23.25 FK Riga 5 1149 56.12% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 2 1011 25.20% 18.68%
20 2006-06-13 23.00 Ventspils 1 1599 25.33% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1698 55.98% 18.69%
21 2006-06-13 22.69 @ FK Riga 2 1239 22.70% FK Jurmala 1 1400 58.73% 18.57%
22 2006-05-17 20.64 @ Ditton Daugavpils 2 1287 28.12% FK Jurmala 1 1399 53.10% 18.78%
23 2006-07-15 20.30 @ Dinaburg 2 1316 58.32% FK Riga 0 1196 23.09% 18.59%
24 2006-07-02 19.48 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 7 1684 73.81% FK Jurmala 1 1372 9.14% 17.05%
25 2006-04-15 19.28 @ Ventspils 1 1552 35.06% Skonto 0 1610 46.03% 18.91%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-11-05 72.9 @ Dinaburg 3 1402 22.16% Ventspils 3 1568 59.30% 18.54%
2 2006-04-30 72.4 @ Ventspils 1 1572 28.18% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1684 53.03% 18.78%
3 2006-05-23 71.5 @ Skonto 1 1618 46.90% Ventspils 1 1591 34.19% 18.90%
4 2006-11-05 69.8 @ Skonto 2 1636 72.86% Ditton Daugavpils 2 1340 9.92% 17.22%
5 2006-10-18 69.3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1712 74.27% Dinaburg 1 1393 8.77% 16.96%
6 2006-05-21 68.8 @ FK Jurmala 1 1379 9.81% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1714 73.00% 17.19%
7 2006-04-09 68.6 @ Skonto 0 1609 32.54% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1685 48.58% 18.88%
8 2006-07-06 67.6 @ Skonto 2 1635 33.67% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1703 47.43% 18.90%
9 2006-09-24 67.3 @ Dinaburg 2 1393 13.44% Ventspils 1 1664 68.76% 17.80%
10 2006-09-28 66.2 @ FK Jurmala 1 1421 10.76% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1738 71.86% 17.38%
11 2006-08-01 65.4 @ Ventspils 1 1659 74.36% Ditton Daugavpils 1 1337 8.70% 16.94%
12 2006-08-20 65.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1685 42.55% @ Ventspils 1 1652 38.51% 18.94%
13 2006-06-13 64.5 Ventspils 1 1599 25.33% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1698 55.98% 18.69%
14 2006-04-22 62.7 @ FK Jurmala 1 1362 18.15% Ventspils 1 1572 63.57% 18.28%
15 2006-05-13 62.5 @ Ditton Daugavpils 1 1281 8.79% Skonto 1 1637 74.24% 16.97%
16 2006-06-22 62.2 @ Skonto 0 1642 69.87% Ditton Daugavpils 0 1392 12.47% 17.66%
17 2006-10-25 62.0 @ Ditton Daugavpils 2 1305 5.64% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1748 78.41% 15.95%
18 2006-05-17 61.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1702 52.65% Skonto 1 1630 28.56% 18.79%
19 2006-09-16 61.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1711 48.30% Skonto 1 1673 32.82% 18.88%
20 2006-10-01 60.8 FK Jurmala 2 1451 15.64% @ Ventspils 0 1654 66.30% 18.05%
21 2006-04-22 60.1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1688 78.66% Ditton Daugavpils 0 1276 5.47% 15.87%
22 2006-07-18 59.9 @ Ventspils 1 1634 40.31% Skonto 0 1654 40.75% 18.94%
23 2006-10-15 59.9 @ Skonto 1 1635 80.58% FK Riga 1 1172 4.21% 15.21%
24 2006-04-15 59.0 @ Ventspils 1 1552 35.06% Skonto 0 1610 46.03% 18.91%
25 2006-09-20 58.5 Dinaburg 2 1336 9.03% @ Skonto 0 1650 73.95% 17.02%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-08-19 25.3 @ Skonto 6 1648 84.81% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1042 1.99% 13.20%
2 2006-08-23 25.8 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1700 85.30% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1037 1.79% 12.91%
3 2006-09-10 27.0 @ FK Jurmala 3 1422 77.78% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1031 6.09% 16.13%
4 2006-04-30 27.1 @ Skonto 6 1620 81.61% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1127 3.59% 14.80%
5 2006-10-14 27.7 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1711 86.66% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 988 1.30% 12.04%
6 2006-06-18 28.0 @ Ventspils 7 1622 82.74% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1092 2.97% 14.29%
7 2006-05-07 28.1 Ventspils 3 1575 78.95% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1118 5.27% 15.78%
8 2006-09-16 28.7 @ Ventspils 4 1651 81.36% FK Riga 0 1166 3.74% 14.90%
9 2006-06-13 29.5 Skonto 2 1627 81.65% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1096 3.57% 14.78%
10 2006-10-29 29.5 @ Ventspils 1 1567 84.17% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 986 2.27% 13.56%
11 2006-10-21 29.7 Skonto 1 1627 84.73% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 987 2.02% 13.25%
12 2006-04-26 30.4 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1679 83.25% Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1132 2.71% 14.04%
13 2006-09-16 30.7 Dinaburg 2 1325 70.91% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1023 11.57% 17.52%
14 2006-06-22 31.2 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1675 79.28% @ FK Riga 0 1210 5.05% 15.67%
15 2006-07-05 31.6 @ Dinaburg 2 1303 67.86% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1080 14.24% 17.90%
16 2006-07-06 32.8 Ventspils 2 1628 77.70% @ FK Riga 0 1201 6.15% 16.15%
17 2006-05-13 33.2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1691 79.36% FK Riga 0 1261 4.99% 15.64%
18 2006-08-28 33.4 Ventspils 3 1636 83.78% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 1033 2.45% 13.77%
19 2006-06-22 33.6 FK Jurmala 1 1366 69.35% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1086 12.92% 17.73%
20 2006-11-05 33.7 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1698 78.24% @ FK Riga 0 1259 5.77% 16.00%
21 2006-07-15 33.9 Ditton Daugavpils 1 1330 68.13% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1067 14.00% 17.87%
22 2006-11-05 33.9 FK Jurmala 3 1414 77.82% @ Dizvanagi Rezekne 1 985 6.06% 16.12%
23 2006-05-21 34.2 @ Ditton Daugavpils 1 1308 67.22% Dizvanagi Rezekne 0 1093 14.81% 17.97%
24 2006-09-28 34.4 Dinaburg 1 1419 68.13% @ FK Riga 0 1156 14.00% 17.87%
25 2006-07-15 34.8 @ Dinaburg 2 1316 58.32% FK Riga 0 1196 23.09% 18.59%