Home / Leagues / Latvia / Virsliga / 2008
‹ ›

2008 Virsliga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Ventspils

40 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinaburg

9.30 points above expected

32 points · 22.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vindava Ventspils

5.30 points below expected

17 points · 22.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ventspils 18 12 4 2 40 33 6 +27 40.03 -0.03
2 Skonto 18 11 3 4 36 28 19 +9 34.07 +1.93
3 Dinaburg 18 9 5 4 32 22 13 +9 22.70 +9.30
4 Liepajas Metalurgs 18 7 9 2 30 27 17 +10 30.55 -0.55
5 FK Riga 18 9 3 6 30 28 27 +1 30.32 -0.32
6 Daugava Daugavpils 18 6 6 6 24 27 22 +5 28.71 -4.71
7 Vindava Ventspils 18 4 5 9 17 14 27 -13 22.30 -5.30
8 FK Jurmala 18 3 7 8 16 15 27 -12 15.47 +0.53
9 Blazma 18 2 4 12 10 8 26 -18 10.61 -0.61
10 JFK Olimps 18 1 6 11 9 12 30 -18 13.01 -4.01
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FK Jurmala 12 7 3 2 24 20 7 +13 24.27 -0.27
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 10 7 2 1 23 21 8 +13 43.84 -20.84
3 Ventspils 10 7 2 1 23 20 8 +12 60.46 -37.46
4 Vindava Ventspils 12 5 4 3 19 13 14 -1 28.39 -9.39
5 Skonto 10 4 4 2 16 15 12 +3 50.10 -34.10
6 Daugava Daugavpils 10 4 1 5 13 13 13 0 35.70 -22.70
7 Blazma 12 3 4 5 13 12 17 -5 15.75 -2.75
8 JFK Olimps 12 1 5 6 8 10 17 -7 16.38 -8.38
9 Dinaburg 10 1 3 6 6 10 18 -8 43.79 -37.79
10 FK Riga 10 1 0 9 3 8 28 -20 40.10 -37.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinaburg 32 22.70 +9.30
2 Skonto 36 34.07 +1.93
3 FK Jurmala 16 15.47 +0.53
4 Ventspils 40 40.03 -0.03
5 FK Riga 30 30.32 -0.32

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vindava Ventspils 17 22.30 -5.30
2 Daugava Daugavpils 24 28.71 -4.71
3 JFK Olimps 9 13.01 -4.01
4 Blazma 10 10.61 -0.61
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 30 30.55 -0.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Riga 4 Apr 26 – May 14 1 in 206
2 Dinaburg 5 Jun 25 – Aug 5 1 in 143
3 Skonto 5 May 25 – Jun 28 1 in 39
4 Vindava Ventspils 2 Jul 27 – Aug 5 1 in 12
5 Blazma 1 Apr 20 – Apr 20 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vindava Ventspils 5 May 25 – Jun 30 1 in 97
2 FK Riga 2 Apr 16 – Apr 20 1 in 12
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 Apr 26 – May 3 1 in 9
4 Ventspils 1 Apr 26 – Apr 26 1 in 7
5 Blazma 5 May 25 – Jun 25 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 13 May 11 – Aug 10 1 in 57
2 FK Riga 10 Apr 26 – Aug 1 1 in 54
3 Dinaburg 8 Jun 14 – Aug 10 1 in 37
4 FK Jurmala 3 Jun 14 – Jun 30 1 in 6
5 Skonto 7 May 25 – Jul 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Daugava Daugavpils 7 Jun 20 – Aug 10 1 in 65
2 Vindava Ventspils 8 May 11 – Jul 6 1 in 25
3 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 Apr 20 – May 25 1 in 23
4 JFK Olimps 15 Apr 26 – Aug 10 1 in 17
5 Skonto 3 Jul 6 – Jul 27 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ventspils 1735 63 -18 10 10.7 -0.7
Liepajas Metalurgs 1668 53 +58 11 8.2 +2.8
Skonto 1585 52 +9 8 7.1 +0.9
FK Jurmala 1355 40 +38 10 8.4 +1.6
Dinaburg 1436 38 -43 1 5.1 -4.1
Daugava Daugavpils 1528 37 +27 9 6.1 +2.9
Vindava Ventspils 1276 36 -63 5 8.3 -3.3
FK Riga 1352 33 -34 3 3.9 -0.9
Blazma 1156 23 +18 8 5.2 +2.8
JFK Olimps 1171 17 +7 4 5.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BLA DD DIN FJ FR JO LM SKO VEN VV
Blazma —
0-1-1
0.96
0-0-2
1.43
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
0.99
0-2-0
2.45
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
0.79
0-0-2
0.52
0-1-1
1.40
Daugava Daugavpils
1-1-0
4.61
 —
1-0-1
2.95
0-2-0
4.16
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
4.46
1-0-1
2.31
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
1.51
1-1-0
3.39
Dinaburg
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-1
2.47
 —
0-2-0
3.41
1-1-0
1.61
2-0-0
3.70
0-1-1
2.05
2-0-0
1.45
0-0-2
0.99
1-1-0
2.60
FK Jurmala
1-0-1
3.40
0-2-0
1.34
0-2-0
2.03
 —
0-0-2
1.24
0-1-1
3.13
0-1-1
1.18
0-1-1
0.92
0-0-2
0.71
2-0-0
1.63
FK Riga
1-0-1
4.57
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
3.85
2-0-0
4.27
 —
2-0-0
4.28
0-2-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
1.23
1-0-1
3.62
JFK Olimps
0-2-0
2.97
0-1-1
1.08
0-0-2
1.75
1-1-0
2.30
0-0-2
1.23
 —
0-1-1
1.05
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
0.58
0-0-2
1.67
Liepajas Metalurgs
2-0-0
4.72
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
4.35
0-2-0
2.87
1-1-0
4.50
 —
0-1-1
2.23
0-2-0
1.61
1-1-0
3.70
Skonto
2-0-0
4.82
2-0-0
3.36
0-0-2
4.04
1-1-0
4.66
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.65
1-1-0
3.20
 —
1-0-1
1.90
1-1-0
3.99
Ventspils
2-0-0
5.20
1-1-0
3.95
2-0-0
4.57
2-0-0
4.93
1-0-1
4.28
1-1-0
5.10
0-2-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.53
 —
2-0-0
4.54
Vindava Ventspils
1-1-0
4.08
0-1-1
2.06
0-1-1
2.81
0-0-2
3.82
1-0-1
1.83
2-0-0
3.79
0-1-1
1.76
0-1-1
1.48
0-0-2
1.01
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +11.9
Allowed 0.67 -11.7
Differential 0.91 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.72%9.03%7.99%3.82%—0.35%30.90%
19.03%11.11%6.60%5.21%1.04%1.04%34.03%
27.99%6.60%6.25%0.69%—0.35%21.88%
33.82%5.21%0.69%0.69%——10.42%
4—1.04%————1.04%
5+0.35%1.04%0.35%———1.74%
Total30.90%34.03%21.88%10.42%1.04%1.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.24 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.78
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%16.67%20.00%6.67%——46.67%
110.00%16.67%10.00%3.33%——40.00%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%40.00%36.67%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.43 -0.77
SD 0.71 0.86 1.19
CV 1.07 0.60 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%7.14%———32.14%
1—7.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%—25.00%
214.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
33.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total28.57%39.29%14.29%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.25 +0.18
SD 1.45 1.14 1.91
CV 1.02 0.91 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%3.57%10.71%——39.29%
17.14%10.71%—3.57%——21.43%
214.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
37.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total39.29%32.14%7.14%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.11 +0.04
SD 1.11 1.17 1.73
CV 0.97 1.05 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%3.33%———26.67%
16.67%13.33%13.33%6.67%——40.00%
210.00%6.67%3.33%——3.33%23.33%
36.67%3.33%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%20.00%6.67%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.13 +0.03
SD 0.95 1.46 1.67
CV 0.81 1.28 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%17.86%3.57%——25.00%
17.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%39.29%
2—10.71%7.14%———17.86%
3—14.29%3.57%———17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%32.14%39.29%10.71%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.96 -0.68
SD 1.05 1.35 1.93
CV 0.82 0.69 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%16.67%16.67%3.33%——46.67%
1—23.33%—20.00%——43.33%
2—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total10.00%46.67%20.00%23.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.57 -0.83
SD 1.01 0.97 1.37
CV 1.38 0.62 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—————21.43%
110.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—28.57%
210.71%3.57%10.71%———25.00%
33.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total46.43%25.00%25.00%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.89 +0.82
SD 1.54 1.03 1.54
CV 0.90 1.15 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%—7.14%——14.29%
117.86%10.71%7.14%———35.71%
23.57%14.29%10.71%3.57%——32.14%
33.57%14.29%————17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%17.86%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.11 +0.43
SD 0.96 0.96 1.43
CV 0.63 0.86 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
121.43%—————21.43%
214.29%3.57%10.71%———28.57%
314.29%3.57%————17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total64.29%21.43%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.50 +1.39
SD 1.64 0.75 1.81
CV 0.87 1.49 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%6.67%6.67%—3.33%33.33%
110.00%16.67%13.33%——3.33%43.33%
213.33%6.67%3.33%———23.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%30.00%23.33%6.67%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 1.37 -0.47
SD 0.76 1.59 1.96
CV 0.84 1.16 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ventspils 1735 40 40.03 -0.03 51.0% 25 31 37 40 43 47 50
Liepajas Metalurgs 1668 30 30.55 -0.55 45.0% 20 22 28 31 34 36 37
Skonto 1585 36 34.07 +1.93 73.0% 20 26 31 34 37 42 45
Daugava Daugavpils 1528 24 28.71 -4.71 14.0% 12 22 26 28 32 35 38
Dinaburg 1436 32 22.70 +9.30 98.0% 11 15 19 22 26 30 36
FK Jurmala 1355 16 15.47 +0.53 59.0% 4 8 12 15 19 23 27
FK Riga 1352 30 30.32 -0.32 50.0% 16 21 27 30 34 40 42
Vindava Ventspils 1276 17 22.30 -5.30 15.0% 10 13 19 22 26 30 33
JFK Olimps 1171 9 13.01 -4.01 24.0% 3 6 10 13 16 21 25
Blazma 1156 10 10.61 -0.61 46.0% 4 5 8 11 13 16 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Strong Edge
42.36%27.78%29.86%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 43.66 Elo pts.
229 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Ventspils, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.300.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.74 * Some Luck: 3.74 to 5.61 * Lucky: 5.61 to 7.49 * Wild Swing: 7.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.16 * Off: 1.16 to 1.54 * Way Off: 1.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.95 points
Some Luck
04.6812
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.962
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Dinaburg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.00%
Daugava Daugavpils
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 180.86
1.98
Coin-Flip Parity
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
83%
Slight Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.71
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.96
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.082
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ventspils78.00%14.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%—————
Skonto14.00%44.00%21.00%8.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%———
Dinaburg—3.00%1.00%7.00%15.00%31.00%30.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%
Liepajas Metalurgs1.00%19.00%31.00%23.00%18.00%6.00%2.00%———
FK Riga6.00%10.00%19.00%35.00%15.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%——
Daugava Daugavpils1.00%10.00%22.00%15.00%33.00%13.00%2.00%4.00%——
Vindava Ventspils——3.00%8.00%8.00%26.00%36.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%
FK Jurmala————1.00%9.00%15.00%32.00%28.00%15.00%
Blazma——————5.00%10.00%36.00%49.00%
JFK Olimps————1.00%2.00%4.00%30.00%29.00%34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Daugava Daugavpils 100% — —
Dinaburg 99.00% 1.00% —
FK Riga 100% — —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Ventspils 100% — —
Vindava Ventspils 97.00% 3.00% —
FK Jurmala 54.00% 26.00% 20.00%
JFK Olimps 36.00% 38.00% 26.00%
Blazma 14.00% 32.00% 54.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Daugava Daugavpils 100% — —
Dinaburg 100% — —
FK Riga 100% — —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% — —
Skonto 100% — —
Ventspils 100% — —
Vindava Ventspils 98.00% 2.00% —
FK Jurmala 86.00% 11.00% 3.00%
JFK Olimps 6.00% 46.00% 48.00%
Blazma 10.00% 41.00% 49.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-04-05 Daugava Daugavpils D 1-155.3 1184 1487 11.31% 24.09% 64.60%-1.13 +4.2 1
2008-04-05 @ Blazma D 1-155.3 1487 1184 64.60% 24.09% 11.31%+1.13 -4.2 1
2008-04-05 FK Riga W 2-048.1 1323 1500 19.90% 27.93% 52.16%-0.58 +33.3 3
2008-04-05 @ Dinaburg L 0-248.1 1500 1323 52.16% 27.93% 19.90%+0.58 -33.3 0
2008-04-05 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-340.3 1256 1546 12.00% 24.57% 63.43%-1.07 -8.4 0
2008-04-05 @ JFK Olimps W 3-140.3 1546 1256 63.43% 24.57% 12.00%+1.07 +8.4 3
2008-04-05 Skonto W 1-055.7 1670 1607 49.77% 28.37% 21.86%+0.47 +9.0 3
2008-04-05 @ Ventspils L 0-155.7 1607 1670 21.86% 28.37% 49.77%-0.47 -9.0 0
2008-04-05 Vindava Ventspils W 2-154.5 1257 1432 20.00% 27.96% 52.04%-0.58 +16.6 3
2008-04-05 @ FK Jurmala L 1-254.5 1432 1257 52.04% 27.96% 20.00%+0.58 -16.6 0
2008-04-12 Dinaburg D 0-048.3 1273 1356 30.23% 29.34% 40.43%-0.17 +0.8 4
2008-04-12 @ FK Jurmala D 0-048.3 1356 1273 40.43% 29.34% 30.23%+0.17 -0.8 4
2008-04-12 JFK Olimps W 3-138.1 1467 1248 65.34% 23.77% 10.89%+1.14 +7.6 3
2008-04-12 @ FK Riga L 1-338.1 1248 1467 10.89% 23.77% 65.34%-1.14 -7.6 0
2008-04-12 Ventspils L 1-452.0 1483 1679 18.19% 27.46% 54.35%-0.67 -17.8 1
2008-04-12 @ Daugava Daugavpils W 4-152.0 1679 1483 54.35% 27.46% 18.19%+0.67 +17.8 6
2008-04-13 Blazma W 1-032.5 1554 1188 76.35% 17.93% 5.72%+1.79 +2.2 6
2008-04-13 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-132.5 1188 1554 5.72% 17.93% 76.35%-1.79 -2.2 1
2008-04-13 Skonto D 1-163.2 1416 1598 19.43% 27.81% 52.76%-0.60 +2.5 1
2008-04-13 @ Vindava Ventspils D 1-163.2 1598 1416 52.76% 27.81% 19.43%+0.60 -2.5 1
2008-04-16 FK Riga W 2-045.8 1697 1474 65.70% 23.61% 10.69%+1.16 +8.6 9
2008-04-16 @ Ventspils L 0-245.8 1474 1697 10.69% 23.61% 65.70%-1.16 -8.6 3
2008-04-19 Daugava Daugavpils W 3-150.7 1595 1465 57.17% 26.72% 16.11%+0.76 +11.3 4
2008-04-19 @ Skonto L 1-350.7 1465 1595 16.11% 26.72% 57.17%-0.76 -11.3 1
2008-04-20 FK Jurmala W 2-148.1 1240 1274 37.09% 29.45% 33.46%+0.04 +11.8 3
2008-04-20 @ JFK Olimps L 1-248.1 1274 1240 33.46% 29.45% 37.09%-0.04 -11.8 4
2008-04-20 FK Riga W 1-050.4 1186 1466 12.53% 24.92% 62.55%-1.03 +20.6 4
2008-04-20 @ Blazma L 0-150.4 1466 1186 62.55% 24.92% 12.53%+1.03 -20.6 3
2008-04-20 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-065.6 1706 1556 59.02% 26.16% 14.82%+0.84 -3.8 10
2008-04-20 @ Ventspils D 0-065.6 1556 1706 14.82% 26.16% 59.02%-0.84 +3.8 7
2008-04-20 Vindava Ventspils D 1-155.3 1356 1418 32.99% 29.44% 37.57%-0.08 +0.3 5
2008-04-20 @ Dinaburg D 1-155.3 1418 1356 37.57% 29.44% 32.99%+0.08 -0.3 2
2008-04-26 Blazma W 1-038.5 1262 1207 48.87% 28.51% 22.62%+0.43 +9.3 7
2008-04-26 @ FK Jurmala L 0-138.5 1207 1262 22.62% 28.51% 48.87%-0.43 -9.3 4
2008-04-26 Daugava Daugavpils L 1-254.1 1418 1454 36.83% 29.45% 33.72%+0.04 -12.7 2
2008-04-26 @ Vindava Ventspils W 2-154.1 1454 1418 33.72% 29.45% 36.83%-0.04 +12.7 4
2008-04-26 JFK Olimps W 1-037.5 1356 1252 54.36% 27.45% 18.19%+0.64 +7.7 8
2008-04-26 @ Dinaburg L 0-137.5 1252 1356 18.19% 27.45% 54.36%-0.64 -7.7 3
2008-04-26 Skonto L 1-263.7 1560 1607 35.28% 29.46% 35.25%-0.01 -12.3 7
2008-04-26 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-163.7 1607 1560 35.25% 29.46% 35.28%+0.01 +12.3 7
2008-04-26 Ventspils W 1-063.7 1445 1702 13.87% 25.69% 60.44%-0.93 +20.0 6
2008-04-26 @ FK Riga L 0-163.7 1702 1445 60.44% 25.69% 13.87%+0.93 -20.0 10
2008-05-03 FK Jurmala W 2-034.4 1682 1272 79.10% 16.20% 4.70%+1.98 +3.3 13
2008-05-03 @ Ventspils L 0-234.4 1272 1682 4.70% 16.20% 79.10%-1.98 -3.3 7
2008-05-03 Dinaburg L 0-235.3 1197 1364 20.86% 28.16% 50.98%-0.54 -16.4 4
2008-05-03 @ Blazma W 2-035.3 1364 1197 50.98% 28.16% 20.86%+0.54 +16.4 11
2008-05-03 FK Riga L 1-267.4 1619 1465 59.48% 26.01% 14.50%+0.86 -18.7 7
2008-05-03 @ Skonto W 2-167.4 1465 1619 14.50% 26.01% 59.48%-0.86 +18.7 9
2008-05-03 Liepajas Metalurgs W 4-154.3 1466 1548 30.40% 29.35% 40.26%-0.17 +33.1 7
2008-05-03 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 1-454.3 1548 1466 40.26% 29.35% 30.40%+0.17 -33.1 7
2008-05-03 Vindava Ventspils L 0-139.1 1245 1405 21.41% 28.28% 50.32%-0.51 -8.9 3
2008-05-03 @ JFK Olimps W 1-039.1 1405 1245 50.32% 28.28% 21.41%+0.51 +8.9 5
2008-05-10 Daugava Daugavpils W 1-050.3 1484 1499 39.62% 29.38% 31.00%+0.12 +11.9 12
2008-05-10 @ FK Riga L 0-150.3 1499 1484 31.00% 29.38% 39.62%-0.12 -11.9 7
2008-05-10 Ventspils L 0-145.8 1380 1685 11.21% 24.01% 64.78%-1.14 -4.8 11
2008-05-10 @ Dinaburg W 1-045.8 1685 1380 64.78% 24.01% 11.21%+1.14 +4.8 16
2008-05-11 Blazma D 1-152.7 1236 1181 48.76% 28.53% 22.72%+0.43 -1.9 4
2008-05-11 @ JFK Olimps D 1-152.7 1181 1236 22.72% 28.53% 48.76%-0.43 +1.9 5
2008-05-11 FK Jurmala W 2-142.0 1600 1268 74.05% 19.30% 6.65%+1.64 +2.5 10
2008-05-11 @ Skonto L 1-242.0 1268 1600 6.65% 19.30% 74.05%-1.64 -2.5 7
2008-05-11 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-054.6 1414 1515 28.00% 29.19% 42.80%-0.25 +1.2 6
2008-05-11 @ Vindava Ventspils D 0-054.6 1515 1414 42.80% 29.19% 28.00%+0.25 -1.2 8
2008-05-14 Dinaburg W 3-038.7 1690 1375 72.82% 20.00% 7.17%+1.56 +7.9 19
2008-05-14 @ Ventspils L 0-338.7 1375 1690 7.17% 20.00% 72.82%-1.56 -7.9 11
2008-05-14 FK Riga L 1-339.7 1234 1496 13.56% 25.53% 60.91%-0.95 -9.5 4
2008-05-14 @ JFK Olimps W 3-139.7 1496 1234 60.91% 25.53% 13.56%+0.95 +9.5 15
2008-05-17 FK Jurmala D 0-051.5 1487 1266 65.60% 23.66% 10.75%+1.16 -4.9 8
2008-05-17 @ Daugava Daugavpils D 0-051.5 1266 1487 10.75% 23.66% 65.60%-1.16 +4.9 8
2008-05-17 Dinaburg L 0-354.0 1603 1367 66.75% 23.14% 10.12%+1.22 -59.5 10
2008-05-17 @ Skonto W 3-054.0 1367 1603 10.12% 23.14% 66.75%-1.22 +59.5 14
2008-05-17 FK Riga D 2-268.7 1514 1505 42.92% 29.18% 27.90%+0.23 -0.8 9
2008-05-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-268.7 1505 1514 27.90% 29.18% 42.92%-0.23 +0.8 16
2008-05-17 JFK Olimps D 0-058.9 1698 1224 82.66% 13.83% 3.52%+2.25 -6.8 20
2008-05-17 @ Ventspils D 0-058.9 1224 1698 3.52% 13.83% 82.66%-2.25 +6.8 5
2008-05-17 Vindava Ventspils D 1-154.0 1183 1415 15.46% 26.45% 58.08%-0.82 +3.3 6
2008-05-17 @ Blazma D 1-154.0 1415 1183 58.08% 26.45% 15.46%+0.82 -3.3 7
2008-05-25 Daugava Daugavpils L 0-343.9 1427 1483 33.96% 29.46% 36.58%-0.05 -34.7 14
2008-05-25 @ Dinaburg W 3-043.9 1483 1427 36.58% 29.46% 33.96%+0.05 +34.7 11
2008-05-25 FK Riga L 1-253.2 1412 1506 28.87% 29.26% 41.88%-0.22 -10.6 7
2008-05-25 @ Vindava Ventspils W 2-153.2 1506 1412 41.88% 29.26% 28.87%+0.22 +10.6 19
2008-05-25 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-156.5 1271 1513 14.80% 26.15% 59.05%-0.87 +3.4 9
2008-05-25 @ FK Jurmala D 1-156.5 1513 1271 59.05% 26.15% 14.80%+0.87 -3.4 10
2008-05-25 Skonto L 0-136.3 1231 1543 10.85% 23.74% 65.40%-1.17 -4.6 5
2008-05-25 @ JFK Olimps W 1-036.3 1543 1231 65.40% 23.74% 10.85%+1.17 +4.6 13
2008-05-25 Ventspils L 0-330.1 1186 1691 4.66% 16.12% 79.21%-2.01 -4.8 6
2008-05-25 @ Blazma W 3-030.1 1691 1186 79.21% 16.12% 4.66%+2.01 +4.8 23
2008-06-07 Blazma W 1-032.2 1548 1181 76.38% 17.91% 5.71%+1.79 +2.2 16
2008-06-07 @ Skonto L 0-132.2 1181 1548 5.71% 17.91% 76.38%-1.79 -2.2 6
2008-06-07 JFK Olimps W 3-136.8 1517 1226 71.09% 20.96% 7.95%+1.46 +5.3 14
2008-06-07 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 1-336.8 1226 1517 7.95% 20.96% 71.09%-1.46 -5.3 5
2008-06-07 Vindava Ventspils W 1-044.9 1696 1401 71.35% 20.82% 7.83%+1.47 +3.2 26
2008-06-07 @ Ventspils L 0-144.9 1401 1696 7.83% 20.82% 71.35%-1.47 -3.2 7
2008-06-08 FK Jurmala W 3-138.9 1516 1274 67.32% 22.87% 9.81%+1.25 +6.8 22
2008-06-08 @ FK Riga L 1-338.9 1274 1516 9.81% 22.87% 67.32%-1.25 -6.8 9
2008-06-08 Dinaburg W 1-042.6 1510 1392 55.80% 27.10% 17.10%+0.70 +7.3 13
2008-06-08 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-142.6 1392 1510 17.10% 27.10% 55.80%-0.70 -7.3 14
2008-06-11 Blazma W 2-029.3 1523 1179 74.84% 18.84% 6.32%+1.69 +4.7 17
2008-06-11 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 0-229.3 1179 1523 6.32% 18.84% 74.84%-1.69 -4.7 6
2008-06-11 Ventspils W 1-063.4 1550 1699 22.59% 28.51% 48.90%-0.46 +16.7 19
2008-06-11 @ Skonto L 0-163.4 1699 1550 48.90% 28.51% 22.59%+0.46 -16.7 26
2008-06-14 FK Jurmala L 0-149.5 1398 1267 57.20% 26.71% 16.08%+0.76 -19.1 7
2008-06-14 @ Vindava Ventspils W 1-049.5 1267 1398 16.08% 26.71% 57.20%-0.76 +19.1 12
2008-06-14 Dinaburg D 1-159.7 1523 1385 57.95% 26.49% 15.55%+0.79 -3.3 23
2008-06-14 @ FK Riga D 1-159.7 1385 1523 15.55% 26.49% 57.95%-0.79 +3.3 15
2008-06-14 JFK Olimps D 1-157.2 1517 1221 71.46% 20.76% 7.78%+1.48 -5.1 14
2008-06-14 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-157.2 1221 1517 7.78% 20.76% 71.46%-1.48 +5.1 6
2008-06-20 Daugava Daugavpils D 2-275.5 1682 1527 59.58% 25.98% 14.44%+0.87 -2.6 27
2008-06-20 @ Ventspils D 2-275.5 1527 1682 14.44% 25.98% 59.58%-0.87 +2.6 18
2008-06-20 FK Jurmala D 2-260.1 1388 1286 54.14% 27.51% 18.36%+0.63 -2.0 16
2008-06-20 @ Dinaburg D 2-260.1 1286 1388 18.36% 27.51% 54.14%-0.63 +2.0 13
2008-06-20 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-134.3 1174 1512 9.73% 22.79% 67.49%-1.28 -4.1 6
2008-06-20 @ Blazma W 1-034.3 1512 1174 67.49% 22.79% 9.73%+1.28 +4.1 17
2008-06-20 Vindava Ventspils W 3-037.3 1567 1379 62.64% 24.88% 12.48%+1.01 +14.7 22
2008-06-20 @ Skonto L 0-337.3 1379 1567 12.48% 24.88% 62.64%-1.01 -14.7 7
2008-06-25 Blazma W 3-027.7 1680 1170 84.45% 12.58% 2.97%+2.41 +2.8 30
2008-06-25 @ Ventspils L 0-327.7 1170 1680 2.97% 12.58% 84.45%-2.41 -2.8 6
2008-06-25 Dinaburg L 0-235.8 1226 1386 21.48% 28.29% 50.23%-0.51 -16.8 6
2008-06-25 @ JFK Olimps W 2-035.8 1386 1226 50.23% 28.29% 21.48%+0.51 +16.8 19
2008-06-28 Skonto L 1-358.8 1530 1582 34.53% 29.46% 36.01%-0.03 -20.9 18
2008-06-28 @ Daugava Daugavpils W 3-158.8 1582 1530 36.01% 29.46% 34.53%+0.03 +20.9 25
2008-06-28 Ventspils D 0-063.8 1516 1682 20.86% 28.16% 50.98%-0.54 +2.5 18
2008-06-28 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-063.8 1682 1516 50.98% 28.16% 20.86%+0.54 -2.5 31
2008-06-30 Dinaburg L 0-242.6 1364 1403 36.40% 29.46% 34.14%+0.02 -25.1 7
2008-06-30 @ Vindava Ventspils W 2-042.6 1403 1364 34.14% 29.46% 36.40%-0.02 +25.1 22
2008-06-30 JFK Olimps D 1-153.0 1288 1209 51.62% 28.04% 20.34%+0.54 -2.3 14
2008-06-30 @ FK Jurmala D 1-153.0 1209 1288 20.34% 28.04% 51.62%-0.54 +2.3 7
2008-07-05 FK Jurmala W 1-045.4 1168 1286 25.88% 28.98% 45.14%-0.33 +15.7 9
2008-07-05 @ Blazma L 0-145.4 1286 1168 45.14% 28.98% 25.88%+0.33 -15.7 14
2008-07-06 Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-272.6 1602 1518 52.18% 27.93% 19.89%+0.56 -1.8 26
2008-07-06 @ Skonto D 2-272.6 1518 1602 19.89% 27.93% 52.18%-0.56 +1.8 19
2008-07-06 Ventspils L 1-338.7 1212 1680 5.49% 17.56% 76.95%-1.85 -3.4 7
2008-07-06 @ JFK Olimps W 3-138.7 1680 1212 76.95% 17.56% 5.49%+1.85 +3.5 34
2008-07-06 Vindava Ventspils D 1-158.2 1509 1339 60.98% 25.50% 13.52%+0.93 -3.7 19
2008-07-06 @ Daugava Daugavpils D 1-158.2 1339 1509 13.52% 25.50% 60.98%-0.93 +3.7 8
2008-07-10 Ventspils L 0-139.2 1270 1683 7.00% 19.79% 73.21%-1.61 -2.8 14
2008-07-10 @ FK Jurmala W 1-039.2 1683 1270 73.21% 19.79% 7.00%+1.61 +2.8 37
2008-07-11 Daugava Daugavpils W 2-047.7 1520 1505 43.74% 29.12% 27.15%+0.26 +20.2 22
2008-07-11 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-247.7 1505 1520 27.15% 29.12% 43.74%-0.26 -20.2 19
2008-07-11 JFK Olimps W 2-033.2 1343 1208 57.60% 26.60% 15.80%+0.78 +12.8 11
2008-07-11 @ Vindava Ventspils L 0-233.2 1208 1343 15.80% 26.60% 57.60%-0.78 -12.8 7
2008-07-12 Blazma W 2-139.5 1428 1183 67.52% 22.77% 9.71%+1.26 +3.9 25
2008-07-12 @ Dinaburg L 1-239.5 1183 1428 9.71% 22.77% 67.52%-1.26 -3.9 9
2008-07-21 Skonto D 1-159.5 1268 1601 9.91% 22.96% 67.13%-1.26 +4.6 15
2008-07-21 @ FK Jurmala D 1-159.5 1601 1268 67.13% 22.96% 9.91%+1.26 -4.6 27
2008-07-21 Vindava Ventspils W 2-037.4 1540 1356 62.36% 24.99% 12.65%+0.99 +10.3 25
2008-07-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-237.4 1356 1540 12.65% 24.99% 62.36%-0.99 -10.3 11
2008-07-22 JFK Olimps D 1-152.4 1179 1195 39.56% 29.38% 31.07%+0.12 -0.6 10
2008-07-22 @ Blazma D 1-152.4 1195 1179 31.07% 29.38% 39.56%-0.12 +0.6 8
2008-07-24 Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-270.5 1520 1551 37.51% 29.44% 33.05%+0.06 -0.2 24
2008-07-24 @ FK Riga D 2-270.5 1551 1520 33.05% 29.44% 37.51%-0.06 +0.2 26
2008-07-27 Blazma W 2-032.2 1346 1179 60.71% 25.60% 13.69%+0.92 +11.1 14
2008-07-27 @ Vindava Ventspils L 0-232.2 1179 1346 13.69% 25.60% 60.71%-0.92 -11.1 10
2008-07-27 Daugava Daugavpils D 0-050.6 1272 1485 16.90% 27.02% 56.07%-0.74 +3.3 16
2008-07-27 @ FK Jurmala D 0-050.6 1485 1272 56.07% 27.02% 16.90%+0.74 -3.3 20
2008-07-27 Skonto W 3-052.8 1432 1596 21.08% 28.21% 50.72%-0.53 +47.3 28
2008-07-27 @ Dinaburg L 0-352.8 1596 1432 50.72% 28.21% 21.08%+0.53 -47.3 27
2008-08-01 Blazma W 2-137.9 1520 1168 75.43% 18.49% 6.08%+1.72 +2.2 27
2008-08-01 @ FK Riga L 1-237.9 1168 1520 6.08% 18.49% 75.43%-1.72 -2.2 10
2008-08-05 FK Jurmala W 7-234.5 1551 1276 69.92% 21.58% 8.50%+1.39 +10.8 29
2008-08-05 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-734.5 1276 1551 8.50% 21.58% 69.92%-1.39 -10.8 16
2008-08-05 Dinaburg L 0-152.8 1482 1479 42.08% 29.24% 28.67%+0.20 -14.8 20
2008-08-05 @ Daugava Daugavpils W 1-052.8 1479 1482 28.67% 29.24% 42.08%-0.20 +14.8 31
2008-08-05 JFK Olimps W 3-135.6 1549 1196 75.47% 18.46% 6.07%+1.73 +3.9 30
2008-08-05 @ Skonto L 1-335.6 1196 1549 6.07% 18.46% 75.47%-1.73 -3.9 8
2008-08-05 Vindava Ventspils L 1-260.3 1522 1357 60.58% 25.64% 13.78%+0.91 -18.9 27
2008-08-05 @ FK Riga W 2-160.3 1357 1522 13.78% 25.64% 60.58%-0.91 +18.9 17
2008-08-10 Daugava Daugavpils D 0-049.8 1192 1467 12.81% 25.09% 62.10%-1.01 +4.3 9
2008-08-10 @ JFK Olimps D 0-049.8 1467 1192 62.10% 25.09% 12.81%+1.01 -4.3 21
2008-08-10 FK Riga L 1-341.0 1265 1503 15.07% 26.28% 58.65%-0.85 -10.6 16
2008-08-10 @ FK Jurmala W 3-141.0 1503 1265 58.65% 26.28% 15.07%+0.85 +10.6 30
2008-08-10 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-059.1 1494 1562 32.29% 29.42% 38.28%-0.10 +0.5 32
2008-08-10 @ Dinaburg D 0-059.1 1562 1494 38.28% 29.42% 32.29%+0.10 -0.5 30
2008-08-10 Skonto L 0-230.6 1165 1553 7.83% 20.81% 71.36%-1.50 -6.1 10
2008-08-10 @ Blazma W 2-030.6 1553 1165 71.36% 20.81% 7.83%+1.50 +6.0 33
2008-08-10 Ventspils L 0-741.9 1376 1686 10.93% 23.80% 65.26%-1.16 -28.3 17
2008-08-10 @ Vindava Ventspils W 7-041.9 1686 1376 65.26% 23.80% 10.93%+1.16 +28.3 40
2008-08-14 Skonto L 1-260.9 1514 1559 35.46% 29.46% 35.08%-0.01 -12.3 30
2008-08-14 @ FK Riga W 2-160.9 1559 1514 35.08% 29.46% 35.46%+0.01 +12.3 36
2008-08-17 FK Riga W 6-148.2 1462 1501 36.36% 29.46% 34.18%+0.02 +46.5 24
2008-08-17 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 1-648.2 1501 1462 34.18% 29.46% 36.36%-0.02 -46.5 30

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-08-17 Blazma W 2-034.1 1254 1159 53.39% 27.68% 18.94%+0.60 +15.1 3
2008-08-17 @ FK Jurmala L 0-234.1 1159 1254 18.94% 27.68% 53.39%-0.60 -15.1 0
2008-08-17 JFK Olimps W 1-035.7 1347 1196 59.19% 26.11% 14.70%+0.85 +6.3 3
2008-08-17 @ Vindava Ventspils L 0-135.7 1196 1347 14.70% 26.11% 59.19%-0.85 -6.3 0
2008-08-23 Blazma D 0-047.4 1190 1144 47.67% 28.68% 23.64%+0.39 -2.0 1
2008-08-23 @ JFK Olimps D 0-047.4 1144 1190 23.64% 28.68% 47.67%-0.39 +2.0 1
2008-08-23 FK Jurmala D 0-048.7 1354 1269 52.21% 27.92% 19.86%+0.56 -2.7 4
2008-08-23 @ Vindava Ventspils D 0-048.7 1269 1354 19.86% 27.92% 52.21%-0.56 +2.7 4
2008-08-24 Daugava Daugavpils W 1-050.4 1714 1509 64.21% 24.25% 11.53%+1.09 +4.9 3
2008-08-24 @ Ventspils L 0-150.4 1509 1714 11.53% 24.25% 64.21%-1.09 -5.0 0
2008-08-24 FK Riga W 3-149.7 1494 1455 46.90% 28.78% 24.32%+0.36 +16.1 3
2008-08-24 @ Dinaburg L 1-349.7 1455 1494 24.32% 28.78% 46.90%-0.36 -16.1 0
2008-08-24 Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-369.8 1571 1561 43.07% 29.17% 27.76%+0.23 -13.5 0
2008-08-24 @ Skonto W 3-269.8 1561 1571 27.76% 29.17% 43.07%-0.23 +13.5 3
2008-08-30 Vindava Ventspils L 0-136.7 1146 1351 17.53% 27.24% 55.22%-0.70 -7.5 1
2008-08-30 @ Blazma W 1-036.7 1351 1146 55.22% 27.24% 17.53%+0.70 +7.5 7
2008-08-31 FK Riga W 2-042.7 1504 1439 50.01% 28.33% 21.66%+0.47 +16.9 3
2008-08-31 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 0-242.7 1439 1504 21.66% 28.33% 50.01%-0.47 -16.9 0
2008-08-31 JFK Olimps W 2-034.5 1272 1188 52.15% 27.94% 19.92%+0.56 +15.8 7
2008-08-31 @ FK Jurmala L 0-234.5 1188 1272 19.92% 27.94% 52.15%-0.56 -15.8 1
2008-08-31 Skonto D 2-276.8 1719 1558 60.24% 25.76% 14.00%+0.90 -2.7 4
2008-08-31 @ Ventspils D 2-276.8 1558 1719 14.00% 25.76% 60.24%-0.90 +2.7 1
2008-09-01 Dinaburg W 3-153.8 1575 1511 49.88% 28.35% 21.77%+0.47 +14.7 6
2008-09-01 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-353.8 1511 1575 21.77% 28.35% 49.88%-0.47 -14.7 3
2008-09-13 Vindava Ventspils L 0-234.5 1172 1358 19.09% 27.72% 53.19%-0.62 -15.2 1
2008-09-13 @ JFK Olimps W 2-034.5 1358 1172 53.19% 27.72% 19.09%+0.62 +15.2 10
2008-09-14 Daugava Daugavpils W 1-051.7 1560 1521 46.86% 28.79% 24.35%+0.36 +9.9 4
2008-09-14 @ Skonto L 0-151.7 1521 1560 24.35% 28.79% 46.86%-0.36 -9.9 3
2008-09-14 FK Jurmala W 2-152.2 1139 1288 22.58% 28.50% 48.92%-0.46 +15.8 4
2008-09-14 @ Blazma L 1-252.2 1288 1139 48.92% 28.50% 22.58%+0.46 -15.8 7
2008-09-14 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-448.0 1422 1589 20.75% 28.13% 51.11%-0.54 -20.0 0
2008-09-14 @ FK Riga W 4-148.0 1589 1422 51.11% 28.13% 20.75%+0.54 +20.0 9
2008-09-14 Ventspils L 0-347.7 1496 1717 16.30% 26.80% 56.90%-0.77 -19.1 3
2008-09-14 @ Dinaburg W 3-047.7 1717 1496 56.90% 26.80% 16.30%+0.77 +19.1 7
2008-09-17 JFK Olimps D 1-152.3 1155 1157 41.39% 29.29% 29.33%+0.18 -0.8 5
2008-09-17 @ Blazma D 1-152.3 1157 1155 29.33% 29.29% 41.39%-0.18 +0.8 2
2008-09-17 Vindava Ventspils W 3-041.1 1272 1374 27.90% 29.18% 42.92%-0.25 +41.2 10
2008-09-17 @ FK Jurmala L 0-341.1 1374 1272 42.92% 29.18% 27.90%+0.25 -41.2 10
2008-09-20 Dinaburg D 1-164.4 1570 1477 53.22% 27.71% 19.07%+0.60 -2.6 5
2008-09-20 @ Skonto D 1-164.4 1477 1570 19.07% 27.71% 53.22%-0.60 +2.6 4
2008-09-20 FK Riga W 5-143.7 1736 1402 74.19% 19.22% 6.59%+1.65 +7.8 10
2008-09-20 @ Ventspils L 1-543.7 1402 1736 6.59% 19.22% 74.19%-1.65 -7.8 0
2008-09-21 Blazma W 2-031.7 1332 1154 61.81% 25.20% 12.99%+0.97 +10.5 13
2008-09-21 @ Vindava Ventspils L 0-231.7 1154 1332 12.99% 25.20% 61.81%-0.97 -10.5 5
2008-09-21 FK Jurmala D 1-152.9 1158 1313 21.96% 28.39% 49.65%-0.49 +2.0 3
2008-09-21 @ JFK Olimps D 1-152.9 1313 1158 49.65% 28.39% 21.96%+0.49 -2.0 11
2008-09-21 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-260.2 1511 1609 28.30% 29.21% 42.49%-0.24 -10.5 3
2008-09-21 @ Daugava Daugavpils W 2-160.2 1609 1511 42.49% 29.21% 28.30%+0.24 +10.4 12
2008-09-27 JFK Olimps D 1-154.0 1343 1160 62.19% 25.06% 12.75%+0.99 -3.9 14
2008-09-27 @ Vindava Ventspils D 1-154.0 1160 1343 12.75% 25.06% 62.19%-0.99 +3.9 4
2008-09-28 Blazma W 2-140.8 1311 1143 60.83% 25.56% 13.62%+0.92 +5.5 14
2008-09-28 @ FK Jurmala L 1-240.8 1143 1311 13.62% 25.56% 60.83%-0.92 -5.5 5
2008-09-28 Daugava Daugavpils D 3-370.6 1479 1501 38.83% 29.41% 31.76%+0.10 -0.3 5
2008-09-28 @ Dinaburg D 3-370.6 1501 1479 31.76% 29.41% 38.83%-0.10 +0.3 4
2008-09-28 Skonto L 1-251.8 1394 1568 20.20% 28.01% 51.79%-0.57 -8.0 0
2008-09-28 @ FK Riga W 2-151.8 1568 1394 51.79% 28.01% 20.20%+0.57 +8.0 8
2008-09-28 Ventspils L 1-263.8 1620 1744 25.29% 28.91% 45.80%-0.35 -9.6 12
2008-09-28 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-163.8 1744 1620 45.80% 28.91% 25.29%+0.35 +9.6 13
2008-10-04 Dinaburg W 3-260.2 1386 1479 28.98% 29.26% 41.76%-0.21 +13.2 3
2008-10-04 @ FK Riga L 2-360.2 1479 1386 41.76% 29.26% 28.98%+0.21 -13.2 5
2008-10-04 Skonto D 0-063.3 1610 1576 46.29% 28.86% 24.85%+0.34 -1.7 13
2008-10-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-063.3 1576 1610 24.85% 28.86% 46.29%-0.34 +1.7 9
2008-10-04 Ventspils L 0-249.3 1501 1753 14.15% 25.84% 60.01%-0.91 -11.5 4
2008-10-04 @ Daugava Daugavpils W 2-049.3 1753 1501 60.01% 25.84% 14.15%+0.91 +11.5 16
2008-10-05 FK Jurmala W 2-146.7 1339 1317 44.70% 29.03% 26.28%+0.29 +9.9 17
2008-10-05 @ Vindava Ventspils L 1-246.7 1317 1339 26.28% 29.03% 44.70%-0.29 -9.9 14
2008-10-18 Blazma L 1-255.8 1349 1138 64.71% 24.04% 11.25%+1.11 -20.0 17
2008-10-18 @ Vindava Ventspils W 2-155.8 1138 1349 11.25% 24.04% 64.71%-1.11 +20.0 8
2008-10-19 Daugava Daugavpils L 0-243.5 1399 1489 29.33% 29.29% 41.39%-0.20 -21.5 3
2008-10-19 @ FK Riga W 2-043.5 1489 1399 41.39% 29.29% 29.33%+0.20 +21.5 7
2008-10-19 JFK Olimps W 3-031.0 1307 1164 58.40% 26.36% 15.25%+0.81 +18.0 17
2008-10-19 @ FK Jurmala L 0-331.0 1164 1307 15.25% 26.36% 58.40%-0.81 -17.9 4
2008-10-19 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-060.1 1466 1609 23.22% 28.61% 48.16%-0.43 +2.0 6
2008-10-19 @ Dinaburg D 0-060.1 1609 1466 48.16% 28.61% 23.22%+0.43 -2.0 14
2008-10-19 Ventspils D 2-277.0 1577 1765 18.96% 27.68% 53.35%-0.63 +1.9 10
2008-10-19 @ Skonto D 2-277.0 1765 1577 53.35% 27.68% 18.96%+0.63 -1.9 17
2008-10-22 JFK Olimps W 1-040.0 1158 1146 43.29% 29.15% 27.55%+0.24 +10.9 11
2008-10-22 @ Blazma L 0-140.0 1146 1158 27.55% 29.15% 43.29%-0.24 -10.9 4
2008-10-25 FK Jurmala L 1-341.1 1168 1325 21.85% 28.37% 49.79%-0.49 -14.8 11
2008-10-25 @ Blazma W 3-141.1 1325 1168 49.79% 28.37% 21.85%+0.49 +14.7 20
2008-10-25 Vindava Ventspils W 5-146.1 1135 1329 18.44% 27.53% 54.03%-0.65 +54.3 7
2008-10-25 @ JFK Olimps L 1-546.1 1329 1135 54.03% 27.53% 18.44%+0.65 -54.3 17
2008-10-26 Dinaburg W 1-048.4 1763 1468 71.40% 20.79% 7.81%+1.48 +3.2 20
2008-10-26 @ Ventspils L 0-148.4 1468 1763 7.81% 20.79% 71.40%-1.48 -3.2 6
2008-10-29 FK Riga W 3-037.7 1607 1378 66.20% 23.39% 10.42%+1.19 +12.1 17
2008-10-29 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-337.7 1378 1607 10.42% 23.39% 66.20%-1.19 -12.1 3
2008-10-29 Skonto W 2-162.3 1511 1579 32.21% 29.42% 38.37%-0.11 +13.0 10
2008-10-29 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 1-262.3 1579 1511 38.37% 29.42% 32.21%+0.11 -13.0 10
2008-11-01 Blazma D 2-258.3 1190 1154 46.42% 28.84% 24.74%+0.35 -1.2 8
2008-11-01 @ JFK Olimps D 2-258.3 1154 1190 24.74% 28.84% 46.42%-0.35 +1.2 12
2008-11-02 Daugava Daugavpils W 3-154.5 1619 1524 53.37% 27.68% 18.95%+0.60 +13.1 20
2008-11-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-354.5 1524 1619 18.95% 27.68% 53.37%-0.60 -13.1 10
2008-11-02 Skonto L 0-151.1 1465 1566 27.92% 29.18% 42.90%-0.25 -11.0 6
2008-11-02 @ Dinaburg W 1-051.1 1566 1465 42.90% 29.18% 27.92%+0.25 +11.0 13
2008-11-02 Ventspils L 0-242.7 1366 1766 7.40% 20.29% 72.31%-1.55 -5.7 3
2008-11-02 @ FK Riga W 2-042.7 1766 1366 72.31% 20.29% 7.40%+1.55 +5.7 23
2008-11-02 Vindava Ventspils D 0-048.5 1340 1275 49.98% 28.33% 21.69%+0.47 -2.3 21
2008-11-02 @ FK Jurmala D 0-048.5 1275 1340 21.69% 28.33% 49.98%-0.47 +2.3 18
2008-11-08 FK Jurmala L 0-235.7 1188 1337 22.60% 28.51% 48.90%-0.46 -17.5 8
2008-11-08 @ JFK Olimps W 2-035.7 1337 1188 48.90% 28.51% 22.60%+0.46 +17.5 24
2008-11-08 Vindava Ventspils D 2-258.4 1155 1277 25.49% 28.94% 45.57%-0.34 +1.1 13
2008-11-08 @ Blazma D 2-258.4 1277 1155 45.57% 28.94% 25.49%+0.34 -1.1 19
2008-11-09 Dinaburg W 2-043.8 1511 1454 49.05% 28.48% 22.47%+0.44 +17.4 13
2008-11-09 @ Daugava Daugavpils L 0-243.8 1454 1511 22.47% 28.48% 49.05%-0.44 -17.4 6
2008-11-09 FK Riga W 3-143.7 1577 1360 65.22% 23.82% 10.96%+1.14 +7.7 16
2008-11-09 @ Skonto L 1-343.7 1360 1577 10.96% 23.82% 65.22%-1.14 -7.6 3
2008-11-09 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-264.3 1772 1632 58.11% 26.45% 15.44%+0.80 -36.6 23
2008-11-09 @ Ventspils W 2-064.3 1632 1772 15.44% 26.45% 58.11%-0.80 +36.6 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2008-05-17 10.12% Dinaburg 1367 3 @ Skonto 1603 0
2 2008-10-18 11.25% Blazma 1138 2 @ Vindava Ventspils 1349 1
3 2008-04-20 12.53% @ Blazma 1186 1 FK Riga 1466 0
4 2008-08-05 13.78% Vindava Ventspils 1357 2 @ FK Riga 1522 1
5 2008-04-26 13.87% @ FK Riga 1445 1 Ventspils 1702 0
6 2008-05-03 14.50% FK Riga 1465 2 @ Skonto 1619 1
7 2008-11-09 15.44% Liepajas Metalurgs 1632 2 @ Ventspils 1772 0
8 2008-06-14 16.08% FK Jurmala 1267 1 @ Vindava Ventspils 1398 0
9 2008-10-25 18.44% @ JFK Olimps 1135 5 Vindava Ventspils 1329 1
10 2008-04-05 19.90% @ Dinaburg 1323 2 FK Riga 1500 0
11 2008-04-05 20.00% @ FK Jurmala 1257 2 Vindava Ventspils 1432 1
12 2008-07-27 21.08% @ Dinaburg 1432 3 Skonto 1596 0
13 2008-09-14 22.58% @ Blazma 1139 2 FK Jurmala 1288 1
14 2008-06-11 22.59% @ Skonto 1550 1 Ventspils 1699 0
15 2008-07-05 25.88% @ Blazma 1168 1 FK Jurmala 1286 0
16 2008-08-24 27.76% Liepajas Metalurgs 1561 3 @ Skonto 1571 2
17 2008-09-17 27.90% @ FK Jurmala 1272 3 Vindava Ventspils 1374 0
18 2008-08-05 28.67% Dinaburg 1479 1 @ Daugava Daugavpils 1482 0
19 2008-10-04 28.98% @ FK Riga 1386 3 Dinaburg 1479 2
20 2008-05-03 30.40% @ Daugava Daugavpils 1466 4 Liepajas Metalurgs 1548 1
21 2008-10-29 32.21% @ Daugava Daugavpils 1511 2 Skonto 1579 1
22 2008-04-26 33.72% Daugava Daugavpils 1454 2 @ Vindava Ventspils 1418 1
23 2008-06-30 34.14% Dinaburg 1403 2 @ Vindava Ventspils 1364 0
24 2008-08-14 35.08% Skonto 1559 2 @ FK Riga 1514 1
25 2008-04-26 35.25% Skonto 1607 2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1560 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-05-17 59.53 Dinaburg 3 1367 10.12% @ Skonto 0 1603 66.75% 23.14%
2 2008-10-25 54.32 @ JFK Olimps 5 1135 18.44% Vindava Ventspils 1 1329 54.03% 27.53%
3 2008-07-27 47.27 @ Dinaburg 3 1432 21.08% Skonto 0 1596 50.72% 28.21%
4 2008-08-17 46.48 @ Daugava Daugavpils 6 1462 36.36% FK Riga 1 1501 34.18% 29.46%
5 2008-09-17 41.25 @ FK Jurmala 3 1272 27.90% Vindava Ventspils 0 1374 42.92% 29.18%
6 2008-11-09 36.56 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1632 15.44% @ Ventspils 0 1772 58.11% 26.45%
7 2008-05-25 34.70 Daugava Daugavpils 3 1483 36.58% @ Dinaburg 0 1427 33.96% 29.46%
8 2008-04-05 33.34 @ Dinaburg 2 1323 19.90% FK Riga 0 1500 52.16% 27.93%
9 2008-05-03 33.10 @ Daugava Daugavpils 4 1466 30.40% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1548 40.26% 29.35%
10 2008-08-10 28.32 Ventspils 7 1686 65.26% @ Vindava Ventspils 0 1376 10.93% 23.80%
11 2008-06-30 25.10 Dinaburg 2 1403 34.14% @ Vindava Ventspils 0 1364 36.40% 29.46%
12 2008-10-19 21.46 Daugava Daugavpils 2 1489 41.39% @ FK Riga 0 1399 29.33% 29.29%
13 2008-06-28 20.93 Skonto 3 1582 36.01% @ Daugava Daugavpils 1 1530 34.53% 29.46%
14 2008-04-20 20.64 @ Blazma 1 1186 12.53% FK Riga 0 1466 62.55% 24.92%
15 2008-07-11 20.25 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1520 43.74% Daugava Daugavpils 0 1505 27.15% 29.12%
16 2008-04-26 20.05 @ FK Riga 1 1445 13.87% Ventspils 0 1702 60.44% 25.69%
17 2008-10-18 20.00 Blazma 2 1138 11.25% @ Vindava Ventspils 1 1349 64.71% 24.04%
18 2008-09-14 19.98 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1589 51.11% @ FK Riga 1 1422 20.75% 28.13%
19 2008-06-14 19.13 FK Jurmala 1 1267 16.08% @ Vindava Ventspils 0 1398 57.20% 26.71%
20 2008-09-14 19.11 Ventspils 3 1717 56.90% @ Dinaburg 0 1496 16.30% 26.80%
21 2008-08-05 18.94 Vindava Ventspils 2 1357 13.78% @ FK Riga 1 1522 60.58% 25.64%
22 2008-05-03 18.65 FK Riga 2 1465 14.50% @ Skonto 1 1619 59.48% 26.01%
23 2008-10-19 17.95 @ FK Jurmala 3 1307 58.40% JFK Olimps 0 1164 15.25% 26.36%
24 2008-04-12 17.82 Ventspils 4 1679 54.35% @ Daugava Daugavpils 1 1483 18.19% 27.46%
25 2008-11-08 17.51 FK Jurmala 2 1337 48.90% @ JFK Olimps 0 1188 22.60% 28.51%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-10-19 77.0 @ Skonto 2 1577 18.96% Ventspils 2 1765 53.35% 27.68%
2 2008-08-31 76.8 @ Ventspils 2 1719 60.24% Skonto 2 1558 14.00% 25.76%
3 2008-06-20 75.5 @ Ventspils 2 1682 59.58% Daugava Daugavpils 2 1527 14.44% 25.98%
4 2008-07-06 72.6 @ Skonto 2 1602 52.18% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1518 19.89% 27.93%
5 2008-09-28 70.6 @ Dinaburg 3 1479 38.83% Daugava Daugavpils 3 1501 31.76% 29.41%
6 2008-07-24 70.5 @ FK Riga 2 1520 37.51% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1551 33.05% 29.44%
7 2008-08-24 69.8 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1561 27.76% @ Skonto 2 1571 43.07% 29.17%
8 2008-05-17 68.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1514 42.92% FK Riga 2 1505 27.90% 29.18%
9 2008-05-03 67.4 FK Riga 2 1465 14.50% @ Skonto 1 1619 59.48% 26.01%
10 2008-04-20 65.6 @ Ventspils 0 1706 59.02% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1556 14.82% 26.16%
11 2008-09-20 64.4 @ Skonto 1 1570 53.22% Dinaburg 1 1477 19.07% 27.71%
12 2008-11-09 64.3 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1632 15.44% @ Ventspils 0 1772 58.11% 26.45%
13 2008-06-28 63.8 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1516 20.86% Ventspils 0 1682 50.98% 28.16%
14 2008-09-28 63.8 Ventspils 2 1744 45.80% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1620 25.29% 28.91%
15 2008-04-26 63.7 Skonto 2 1607 35.25% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1560 35.28% 29.46%
16 2008-04-26 63.7 @ FK Riga 1 1445 13.87% Ventspils 0 1702 60.44% 25.69%
17 2008-06-11 63.4 @ Skonto 1 1550 22.59% Ventspils 0 1699 48.90% 28.51%
18 2008-10-04 63.3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1610 46.29% Skonto 0 1576 24.85% 28.86%
19 2008-04-13 63.2 @ Vindava Ventspils 1 1416 19.43% Skonto 1 1598 52.76% 27.81%
20 2008-10-29 62.3 @ Daugava Daugavpils 2 1511 32.21% Skonto 1 1579 38.37% 29.42%
21 2008-08-14 60.9 Skonto 2 1559 35.08% @ FK Riga 1 1514 35.46% 29.46%
22 2008-08-05 60.3 Vindava Ventspils 2 1357 13.78% @ FK Riga 1 1522 60.58% 25.64%
23 2008-09-21 60.2 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1609 42.49% @ Daugava Daugavpils 1 1511 28.30% 29.21%
24 2008-10-04 60.2 @ FK Riga 3 1386 28.98% Dinaburg 2 1479 41.76% 29.26%
25 2008-06-20 60.1 @ Dinaburg 2 1388 54.14% FK Jurmala 2 1286 18.36% 27.51%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-06-25 27.7 @ Ventspils 3 1680 84.45% Blazma 0 1170 2.97% 12.58%
2 2008-06-11 29.3 @ Daugava Daugavpils 2 1523 74.84% Blazma 0 1179 6.32% 18.84%
3 2008-05-25 30.1 Ventspils 3 1691 79.21% @ Blazma 0 1186 4.66% 16.12%
4 2008-08-10 30.6 Skonto 2 1553 71.36% @ Blazma 0 1165 7.83% 20.81%
5 2008-10-19 31.0 @ FK Jurmala 3 1307 58.40% JFK Olimps 0 1164 15.25% 26.36%
6 2008-09-21 31.7 @ Vindava Ventspils 2 1332 61.81% Blazma 0 1154 12.99% 25.20%
7 2008-06-07 32.2 @ Skonto 1 1548 76.38% Blazma 0 1181 5.71% 17.91%
8 2008-07-27 32.2 @ Vindava Ventspils 2 1346 60.71% Blazma 0 1179 13.69% 25.60%
9 2008-04-13 32.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1554 76.35% Blazma 0 1188 5.72% 17.93%
10 2008-07-11 33.2 @ Vindava Ventspils 2 1343 57.60% JFK Olimps 0 1208 15.80% 26.60%
11 2008-08-17 34.1 @ FK Jurmala 2 1254 53.39% Blazma 0 1159 18.94% 27.68%
12 2008-06-20 34.3 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1512 67.49% @ Blazma 0 1174 9.73% 22.79%
13 2008-05-03 34.4 @ Ventspils 2 1682 79.10% FK Jurmala 0 1272 4.70% 16.20%
14 2008-08-05 34.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 7 1551 69.92% FK Jurmala 2 1276 8.50% 21.58%
15 2008-08-31 34.5 @ FK Jurmala 2 1272 52.15% JFK Olimps 0 1188 19.92% 27.94%
16 2008-09-13 34.5 Vindava Ventspils 2 1358 53.19% @ JFK Olimps 0 1172 19.09% 27.72%
17 2008-05-03 35.3 Dinaburg 2 1364 50.98% @ Blazma 0 1197 20.86% 28.16%
18 2008-08-05 35.6 @ Skonto 3 1549 75.47% JFK Olimps 1 1196 6.07% 18.46%
19 2008-08-17 35.7 @ Vindava Ventspils 1 1347 59.19% JFK Olimps 0 1196 14.70% 26.11%
20 2008-11-08 35.7 FK Jurmala 2 1337 48.90% @ JFK Olimps 0 1188 22.60% 28.51%
21 2008-06-25 35.8 Dinaburg 2 1386 50.23% @ JFK Olimps 0 1226 21.48% 28.29%
22 2008-05-25 36.3 Skonto 1 1543 65.40% @ JFK Olimps 0 1231 10.85% 23.74%
23 2008-08-30 36.7 Vindava Ventspils 1 1351 55.22% @ Blazma 0 1146 17.53% 27.24%
24 2008-06-07 36.8 @ Daugava Daugavpils 3 1517 71.09% JFK Olimps 1 1226 7.95% 20.96%
25 2008-06-20 37.3 @ Skonto 3 1567 62.64% Vindava Ventspils 0 1379 12.48% 24.88%