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2009 Virsliga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Liepajas Metalurgs

79 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Liepajas Metalurgs

7.72 points above expected

79 points · 71.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tranzits Ventspils

19.36 points below expected

16 points · 35.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 32 25 4 3 79 96 23 +73 71.28 +7.72
2 Ventspils 32 23 5 4 74 89 21 +68 72.76 +1.24
3 Skonto 32 23 4 5 73 96 30 +66 65.32 +7.68
4 FK Jurmala-VV 64 15 9 40 54 68 176 -108 53.70 +0.30
5 Dinaburg 32 15 4 13 49 31 39 -8 48.86 +0.14
6 JFK Olimps 32 11 5 16 38 53 60 -7 37.54 +0.46
7 Blazma 32 7 5 20 26 30 71 -41 25.09 +0.91
8 Tranzits Ventspils 32 2 10 20 16 22 65 -43 35.36 -19.36

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 79 71.28 +7.72
2 Skonto 73 65.32 +7.68
3 Ventspils 74 72.76 +1.24
4 Blazma 26 25.09 +0.91
5 JFK Olimps 38 37.54 +0.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tranzits Ventspils 16 35.36 -19.36
2 Dinaburg 49 48.86 +0.14
3 FK Jurmala-VV 54 53.70 +0.30
4 JFK Olimps 38 37.54 +0.46
5 Blazma 26 25.09 +0.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Jurmala-VV 3 Oct 18 – Oct 25 1 in 6,074
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 8 Aug 30 – Oct 24 1 in 22
3 Tranzits Ventspils 1 Jul 8 – Jul 8 1 in 18
4 Dinaburg 4 Jun 26 – Aug 3 1 in 14
5 Blazma 2 Aug 1 – Aug 15 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinaburg 6 Oct 11 – Nov 8 1 in 555
2 FK Jurmala-VV 11 Aug 29 – Oct 18 1 in 119
3 Ventspils 1 Jun 14 – Jun 14 1 in 8
4 Blazma 5 Apr 29 – May 28 1 in 6
5 JFK Olimps 4 May 6 – May 25 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Jurmala-VV 3 Oct 18 – Oct 25 1 in 131
2 Dinaburg 7 Jun 14 – Aug 3 1 in 26
3 JFK Olimps 5 Sep 26 – Nov 8 1 in 14
4 Blazma 3 May 31 – Jun 18 1 in 12
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 13 Mar 14 – Jun 11 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tranzits Ventspils 17 Mar 14 – Jul 4 1 in 3,075
2 Dinaburg 6 Oct 11 – Nov 8 1 in 36
3 JFK Olimps 7 Jun 11 – Jul 4 1 in 22
4 FK Jurmala-VV 11 Aug 29 – Oct 18 1 in 9
5 Blazma 11 Mar 14 – May 28 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Liepajas Metalurgs 1734 79 +59 13 11.0 +2.0
Ventspils 1661 74 -16 10 10.7 -0.7
Skonto 1639 73 +2 10 9.7 +0.3
FK Jurmala-VV 1128 54 +74 6 2.9 +3.1
Dinaburg 1284 49 -131 0 5.2 -5.2
JFK Olimps 1376 38 +96 13 7.8 +5.2
Blazma 1247 26 +107 9 5.3 +3.7
Tranzits Ventspils 1133 16 -64 1 5.9 -4.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BLA DIN FJ JO LM SKO TV VEN
Blazma —
1-0-3
2.15
4-1-3
11.01
1-1-2
3.57
0-0-4
1.12
0-0-4
1.49
1-3-0
4.15
0-0-4
1.01
Dinaburg
3-0-1
9.22
 —
5-0-3
17.20
2-1-1
7.11
0-0-4
2.52
1-1-2
2.88
3-1-0
7.53
1-1-2
2.18
FK Jurmala-VV
3-1-4
11.65
3-0-5
5.53
 —
2-0-6
8.92
0-2-6
2.26
0-0-8
3.36
5-2-1
8.46
0-0-8
2.56
JFK Olimps
2-1-1
7.76
1-1-2
4.22
6-0-2
13.75
 —
0-0-4
1.65
0-1-3
2.23
2-2-0
6.32
0-0-4
1.51
Liepajas Metalurgs
4-0-0
10.33
4-0-0
8.84
6-2-0
20.67
4-0-0
9.75
 —
2-0-2
6.74
3-0-1
9.68
2-2-0
5.76
Skonto
4-0-0
9.93
2-1-1
8.47
8-0-0
19.47
3-1-0
9.14
2-0-2
4.59
 —
3-1-0
9.18
1-1-2
4.32
Tranzits Ventspils
0-3-1
7.18
0-1-3
3.82
1-2-5
14.20
0-2-2
5.00
1-0-3
1.73
0-1-3
2.21
 —
0-1-3
1.53
Ventspils
4-0-0
10.46
2-1-1
9.20
8-0-0
20.35
4-0-0
9.91
0-2-2
5.56
2-1-1
7.01
3-1-0
9.89
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +7.0
Allowed 0.10 -1.5
Differential 0.48 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%7.64%4.17%7.29%2.78%4.51%29.17%
17.64%11.11%5.21%2.08%2.08%3.12%31.25%
24.17%5.21%0.69%1.39%0.69%0.35%12.50%
37.29%2.08%1.39%1.39%0.35%0.35%12.85%
42.78%2.08%0.69%0.35%——5.90%
5+4.51%3.12%0.35%0.35%——8.33%
Total29.17%31.25%12.50%12.85%5.90%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.68 +0.00
SD 1.79 1.79 2.95
CV 1.06 1.06 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%3.12%12.50%9.38%9.38%50.00%
13.12%12.50%6.25%3.12%—3.12%28.12%
23.12%——3.12%——6.25%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
43.12%——3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total18.75%28.12%9.38%21.88%9.38%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.22 -1.28
SD 1.24 1.88 2.64
CV 1.33 0.85 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%—21.88%——31.25%
125.00%9.38%6.25%3.12%——43.75%
29.38%9.38%—3.12%——21.88%
33.12%—————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.62%25.00%6.25%28.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.22 -0.25
SD 0.82 1.26 1.81
CV 0.85 1.04 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%5.00%13.33%5.00%13.33%45.00%
13.33%8.33%1.67%—6.67%5.00%25.00%
21.67%6.67%1.67%1.67%1.67%1.67%15.00%
35.00%1.67%1.67%1.67%1.67%—11.67%
4—1.67%1.67%———3.33%
5+———————
Total10.00%26.67%11.67%16.67%15.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 2.85 -1.82
SD 1.18 2.16 2.80
CV 1.14 0.76 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%——25.00%
16.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—12.50%37.50%
26.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
33.12%—3.12%3.12%—3.12%12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+6.25%3.12%————9.38%
Total28.12%25.00%18.75%12.50%—15.62%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.88 -0.22
SD 1.72 1.96 2.88
CV 1.04 1.05 —
Max 7 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
16.25%9.38%3.12%———18.75%
2—12.50%3.12%———15.62%
315.62%6.25%————21.88%
49.38%9.38%————18.75%
5+6.25%9.38%3.12%———18.75%
Total37.50%53.12%9.38%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 0.72 +2.28
SD 1.87 0.63 2.00
CV 0.62 0.88 —
Max 8 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
19.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
29.38%3.12%————12.50%
39.38%3.12%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
46.25%3.12%————9.38%
5+15.62%6.25%————21.88%
Total53.12%25.00%9.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 0.94 +2.06
SD 2.33 1.41 3.08
CV 0.78 1.51 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%12.50%3.12%3.12%6.25%43.75%
13.12%21.88%12.50%3.12%6.25%—46.88%
2—3.12%——3.12%—6.25%
3———3.12%——3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.38%37.50%25.00%9.38%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 2.03 -1.34
SD 0.74 1.58 1.73
CV 1.07 0.78 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%3.12%———12.50%
19.38%9.38%6.25%———25.00%
26.25%3.12%————9.38%
315.62%3.12%————18.75%
43.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
5+12.50%9.38%—3.12%——25.00%
Total53.12%31.25%12.50%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.66 +2.12
SD 2.11 0.83 2.32
CV 0.76 1.26 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Liepajas Metalurgs 1734 79 71.28 +7.72 97.0% 50 59 67 72 76 79 82
Ventspils 1661 74 72.76 +1.24 60.0% 57 61 69 73 77 81 87
Skonto 1639 73 65.32 +7.68 92.0% 52 55 62 66 69 74 77
JFK Olimps 1376 38 37.54 +0.46 55.0% 21 26 33 37 41 49 52
Dinaburg 1284 49 48.86 +0.14 50.0% 30 37 44 49 53 57 65
Blazma 1247 26 25.09 +0.91 64.0% 9 14 20 24 29 38 46
Tranzits Ventspils 1133 16 35.36 -19.36 1.0% 16 24 31 35 41 46 52
FK Jurmala-VV 1128 54 53.70 +0.30 54.0% 36 41 47 53 59 68 75

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.08%
No Edge
43.06%15.97%40.97%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.24 Elo pts.
146 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Liepajas Metalurgs, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.32 * Some Luck: 5.32 to 7.98 * Lucky: 7.98 to 10.65 * Wild Swing: 10.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.45 * Close: 0.45 to 0.67 * Off: 0.67 to 0.9 * Way Off: 0.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.87 points
Some Luck
06.6517
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Close
00.561.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Liepajas Metalurgs
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Tranzits Ventspils
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 244.69
2.81
Strong Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
92%
Wide Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Few
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
40%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.45
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Very Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.12
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Liepajas Metalurgs40.00%36.00%20.00%3.00%1.00%———
Ventspils49.00%30.00%20.00%1.00%————
Skonto10.00%31.00%46.00%13.00%————
FK Jurmala-VV1.00%3.00%14.00%45.00%29.00%5.00%3.00%—
Dinaburg———36.00%44.00%18.00%2.00%—
JFK Olimps———2.00%10.00%45.00%37.00%6.00%
Blazma————2.00%6.00%15.00%77.00%
Tranzits Ventspils————14.00%26.00%43.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Blazma 23.00% 77.00%
Dinaburg 100% —
FK Jurmala-VV 100% —
JFK Olimps 94.00% 6.00%
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Tranzits Ventspils 83.00% 17.00%
Ventspils 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-03-14 Dinaburg D 1-157.7 1374 1395 39.93% 16.94% 43.13%-0.09 +0.2 1
2009-03-14 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 1-157.7 1395 1374 43.13% 16.94% 39.93%+0.09 -0.2 1
2009-03-14 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-240.1 1235 1549 10.89% 15.43% 73.68%-2.10 -3.7 0
2009-03-14 @ JFK Olimps W 2-140.1 1549 1235 73.68% 15.43% 10.89%+2.10 +3.7 3
2009-03-14 Skonto L 0-730.2 1218 1487 13.63% 15.83% 70.54%-1.79 -29.7 0
2009-03-14 @ Blazma W 7-030.2 1487 1218 70.54% 15.83% 13.63%+1.79 +29.7 3
2009-03-15 Ventspils L 1-541.2 1343 1598 14.57% 15.94% 69.49%-1.69 -15.5 0
2009-03-15 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-141.2 1598 1343 69.49% 15.94% 14.57%+1.69 +15.6 3
2009-03-21 Blazma W 4-029.3 1553 1189 77.63% 14.73% 7.65%+2.54 +9.9 6
2009-03-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-429.3 1189 1553 7.65% 14.73% 77.63%-2.54 -9.9 0
2009-03-21 FK Jurmala-VV L 1-251.8 1395 1327 52.11% 16.84% 31.05%+0.51 -15.3 1
2009-03-21 @ Dinaburg W 2-151.8 1327 1395 31.05% 16.84% 52.11%-0.51 +15.3 3
2009-03-21 JFK Olimps W 1-035.8 1613 1232 78.45% 14.54% 7.01%+2.66 +2.5 6
2009-03-21 @ Ventspils L 0-135.8 1232 1613 7.01% 14.54% 78.45%-2.66 -2.5 0
2009-03-21 Tranzits Ventspils W 1-042.4 1517 1374 60.92% 16.54% 22.53%+1.02 +7.8 6
2009-03-21 @ Skonto L 0-142.4 1374 1517 22.53% 16.54% 60.92%-1.02 -7.8 1
2009-04-05 Blazma W 5-133.5 1616 1179 80.84% 13.90% 5.26%+3.03 +5.6 9
2009-04-05 @ Ventspils L 1-533.5 1179 1616 5.26% 13.90% 80.84%-3.03 -5.6 0
2009-04-05 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-042.5 1229 1342 27.84% 16.76% 55.41%-0.72 +61.4 3
2009-04-05 @ JFK Olimps L 0-442.5 1342 1229 55.41% 16.76% 27.84%+0.72 -61.4 3
2009-04-05 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-033.9 1525 1281 70.10% 15.88% 14.02%+1.71 +13.8 9
2009-04-05 @ Skonto L 0-333.9 1281 1525 14.02% 15.88% 70.10%-1.71 -13.8 3
2009-04-05 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-142.6 1366 1563 19.22% 16.35% 64.43%-1.29 -6.8 1
2009-04-05 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 1-042.6 1563 1366 64.43% 16.35% 19.22%+1.29 +6.8 9
2009-04-08 FK Jurmala-VV D 2-264.5 1570 1267 74.18% 15.36% 10.47%+2.12 -3.7 10
2009-04-08 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 2-264.5 1267 1570 10.47% 15.36% 74.18%-2.12 +3.7 4
2009-04-08 Dinaburg W 3-251.9 1538 1379 62.63% 16.46% 20.92%+1.13 +6.5 12
2009-04-08 @ Skonto L 2-351.9 1379 1538 20.92% 16.46% 62.63%-1.13 -6.6 1
2009-04-08 Tranzits Ventspils D 1-164.4 1621 1360 71.46% 15.72% 12.82%+1.84 -4.5 10
2009-04-08 @ Ventspils D 1-164.4 1360 1621 12.82% 15.72% 71.46%-1.84 +4.5 2
2009-04-09 Blazma D 1-155.1 1271 1173 55.88% 16.74% 27.38%+0.72 -2.1 5
2009-04-09 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-155.1 1173 1271 27.38% 16.74% 55.88%-0.72 +2.1 1
2009-04-12 JFK Olimps L 0-138.2 1175 1291 27.60% 16.75% 55.65%-0.74 -9.4 1
2009-04-12 @ Blazma W 1-038.2 1291 1175 55.65% 16.75% 27.60%+0.74 +9.4 6
2009-04-12 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-339.7 1373 1566 19.53% 16.37% 64.11%-1.27 -18.8 1
2009-04-12 @ Dinaburg W 3-039.7 1566 1373 64.11% 16.37% 19.53%+1.27 +18.8 13
2009-04-12 Ventspils L 0-334.4 1269 1617 9.18% 15.10% 75.72%-2.33 -9.1 5
2009-04-12 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-034.4 1617 1269 75.72% 15.10% 9.18%+2.33 +9.1 13
2009-04-13 FK Jurmala-VV D 3-364.9 1364 1260 56.65% 16.72% 26.63%+0.76 -1.4 3
2009-04-13 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 3-364.9 1260 1364 26.63% 16.72% 56.65%-0.76 +1.4 6
2009-04-17 FK Jurmala-VV D 1-155.2 1261 1261 42.92% 16.94% 40.14%+0.05 +0.0 7
2009-04-17 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-155.2 1261 1261 40.14% 16.94% 42.92%-0.05 +0.0 8
2009-04-18 Dinaburg D 0-060.8 1626 1354 72.18% 15.63% 12.19%+1.91 -5.1 14
2009-04-18 @ Ventspils D 0-060.8 1354 1626 12.19% 15.63% 72.18%-1.91 +5.2 2
2009-04-18 JFK Olimps D 0-052.6 1363 1300 51.51% 16.85% 31.64%+0.48 -1.6 4
2009-04-18 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 0-052.6 1300 1363 31.64% 16.85% 51.51%-0.48 +1.6 7
2009-04-18 Skonto W 4-050.0 1585 1545 48.51% 16.90% 34.59%+0.32 +40.8 16
2009-04-18 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-450.0 1545 1585 34.59% 16.90% 48.51%-0.32 -40.8 12
2009-04-25 JFK Olimps L 0-141.5 1261 1302 37.20% 16.92% 45.88%-0.23 -12.1 8
2009-04-25 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 1-041.5 1302 1261 45.88% 16.92% 37.20%+0.23 +12.1 10
2009-04-26 Blazma D 0-051.9 1361 1166 66.11% 16.23% 17.66%+1.38 -4.1 5
2009-04-26 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 0-051.9 1166 1361 17.66% 16.23% 66.11%-1.38 +4.1 2
2009-04-26 FK Jurmala-VV W 1-038.4 1359 1249 57.34% 16.69% 25.97%+0.80 +8.9 5
2009-04-26 @ Dinaburg L 0-138.4 1249 1359 25.97% 16.69% 57.34%-0.80 -8.9 8
2009-04-26 Ventspils L 1-355.2 1504 1621 27.42% 16.74% 55.84%-0.75 -15.2 12
2009-04-26 @ Skonto W 3-155.2 1621 1504 55.84% 16.74% 27.42%+0.75 +15.2 17
2009-04-29 FK Jurmala-VV L 1-244.2 1170 1240 33.19% 16.88% 49.94%-0.43 -10.4 2
2009-04-29 @ Blazma W 2-144.2 1240 1170 49.94% 16.88% 33.19%+0.43 +10.4 11
2009-04-30 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-172.2 1636 1626 44.39% 16.93% 38.68%+0.12 -0.4 18
2009-04-30 @ Ventspils D 1-172.2 1626 1636 38.68% 16.93% 44.39%-0.12 +0.4 17
2009-04-30 Skonto L 1-733.8 1251 1489 15.80% 16.07% 68.14%-1.58 -24.3 11
2009-04-30 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 7-133.8 1489 1251 68.14% 16.07% 15.80%+1.58 +24.3 15
2009-05-04 Blazma W 1-034.9 1368 1159 67.28% 16.14% 16.58%+1.47 +5.9 8
2009-05-04 @ Dinaburg L 0-134.9 1159 1368 16.58% 16.14% 67.28%-1.47 -5.9 2
2009-05-04 FK Jurmala-VV W 1-035.7 1626 1226 79.29% 14.33% 6.37%+2.78 +2.3 20
2009-05-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-135.7 1226 1626 6.37% 14.33% 79.29%-2.78 -2.3 11
2009-05-06 JFK Olimps W 2-037.1 1513 1314 66.47% 16.20% 17.33%+1.41 +11.6 18
2009-05-06 @ Skonto L 0-237.1 1314 1513 17.33% 16.20% 66.47%-1.41 -11.6 10
2009-05-06 Tranzits Ventspils W 4-254.9 1224 1357 25.57% 16.68% 57.75%-0.86 +26.1 14
2009-05-06 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 2-454.9 1357 1224 57.75% 16.68% 25.57%+0.86 -26.1 5
2009-05-10 Blazma W 4-028.3 1525 1154 77.95% 14.65% 7.40%+2.58 +9.6 21
2009-05-10 @ Skonto L 0-428.3 1154 1525 7.40% 14.65% 77.95%-2.58 -9.6 2
2009-05-10 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-244.1 1636 1250 78.65% 14.49% 6.86%+2.68 +3.6 21
2009-05-10 @ Ventspils L 2-444.1 1250 1636 6.86% 14.49% 78.65%-2.68 -3.6 14
2009-05-10 JFK Olimps W 5-139.0 1629 1302 75.59% 15.12% 9.28%+2.28 +10.0 23
2009-05-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-539.0 1302 1629 9.28% 15.12% 75.59%-2.28 -10.0 10
2009-05-10 Tranzits Ventspils W 2-040.1 1374 1331 48.89% 16.89% 34.22%+0.34 +21.3 11
2009-05-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-240.1 1331 1374 34.22% 16.89% 48.89%-0.34 -21.3 5
2009-05-13 Dinaburg W 1-048.7 1246 1395 23.86% 16.61% 59.53%-0.97 +18.4 17
2009-05-13 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-148.7 1395 1246 59.53% 16.61% 23.86%+0.97 -18.4 11
2009-05-13 Skonto D 1-159.7 1310 1534 16.86% 16.16% 66.97%-1.48 +3.8 6
2009-05-13 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 1-159.7 1534 1310 66.97% 16.16% 16.86%+1.48 -3.8 22
2009-05-13 Ventspils L 1-539.0 1292 1639 9.22% 15.11% 75.68%-2.32 -9.9 10
2009-05-13 @ JFK Olimps W 5-139.0 1639 1292 75.68% 15.11% 9.22%+2.32 +9.9 24
2009-05-14 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-329.8 1144 1639 4.32% 13.44% 82.24%-3.33 -4.2 2
2009-05-14 @ Blazma W 3-029.8 1639 1144 82.24% 13.44% 4.32%+3.33 +4.2 26
2009-05-25 Dinaburg L 1-244.4 1282 1377 30.07% 16.82% 53.11%-0.60 -9.5 10
2009-05-25 @ JFK Olimps W 2-144.4 1377 1282 53.11% 16.82% 30.07%+0.60 +9.5 14
2009-05-27 Skonto L 0-333.6 1265 1530 13.83% 15.85% 70.32%-1.77 -13.6 17
2009-05-27 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-033.6 1530 1265 70.32% 15.85% 13.83%+1.77 +13.6 25
2009-05-27 Tranzits Ventspils W 5-035.2 1643 1314 75.75% 15.09% 9.15%+2.30 +14.6 29
2009-05-27 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-535.2 1314 1643 9.15% 15.09% 75.75%-2.30 -14.6 6
2009-05-28 JFK Olimps L 1-541.8 1251 1273 39.85% 16.94% 43.21%-0.10 -38.4 17
2009-05-28 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-141.8 1273 1251 43.21% 16.94% 39.85%+0.10 +38.4 13
2009-05-28 Ventspils L 0-329.8 1140 1649 3.99% 13.25% 82.76%-3.43 -3.9 2
2009-05-28 @ Blazma W 3-029.8 1649 1140 82.76% 13.25% 3.99%+3.43 +3.9 27
2009-05-31 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-357.4 1136 1213 32.33% 16.86% 50.81%-0.48 +13.8 5
2009-05-31 @ Blazma L 3-457.4 1213 1136 50.81% 16.86% 32.33%+0.48 -13.8 17
2009-05-31 Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-160.7 1199 1657 5.21% 13.88% 80.91%-3.08 +5.9 18
2009-05-31 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-160.7 1657 1199 80.91% 13.88% 5.21%+3.08 -5.9 30
2009-05-31 Skonto D 1-162.3 1386 1544 22.97% 16.57% 60.46%-1.03 +2.8 15
2009-05-31 @ Dinaburg D 1-162.3 1544 1386 60.46% 16.57% 22.97%+1.03 -2.8 26
2009-05-31 Ventspils L 0-336.6 1299 1653 8.90% 15.04% 76.07%-2.37 -8.8 6
2009-05-31 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 3-036.6 1653 1299 76.07% 15.04% 8.90%+2.37 +8.8 30
2009-06-11 Blazma D 1-155.2 1311 1150 62.86% 16.44% 20.70%+1.15 -3.1 14
2009-06-11 @ JFK Olimps D 1-155.2 1150 1311 20.70% 16.44% 62.86%-1.15 +3.1 6
2009-06-11 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-032.1 1662 1205 81.60% 13.66% 4.74%+3.17 +4.7 33
2009-06-11 @ Ventspils L 0-332.1 1205 1662 4.74% 13.66% 81.60%-3.17 -4.6 18
2009-06-11 Dinaburg W 3-147.6 1651 1389 71.49% 15.72% 12.79%+1.84 +7.5 33
2009-06-11 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-347.6 1389 1651 12.79% 15.72% 71.49%-1.84 -7.5 15
2009-06-11 Tranzits Ventspils W 2-044.0 1200 1290 30.68% 16.83% 52.49%-0.56 +30.8 21
2009-06-11 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-244.0 1290 1200 52.49% 16.83% 30.68%+0.56 -30.8 6
2009-06-14 FK Jurmala-VV D 1-155.0 1231 1231 42.92% 16.94% 40.14%+0.05 +0.0 22
2009-06-14 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-155.0 1231 1231 40.14% 16.94% 42.92%-0.05 +0.0 23
2009-06-14 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-167.1 1541 1659 27.33% 16.74% 55.93%-0.75 +16.3 29
2009-06-14 @ Skonto L 1-267.1 1659 1541 55.93% 16.74% 27.33%+0.75 -16.3 33
2009-06-14 Tranzits Ventspils D 1-155.5 1308 1259 49.63% 16.88% 33.49%+0.38 -1.1 15
2009-06-14 @ JFK Olimps D 1-155.5 1259 1308 33.49% 16.88% 49.63%-0.38 +1.1 7
2009-06-14 Ventspils W 1-062.6 1382 1667 12.59% 15.69% 71.72%-1.90 +22.1 18
2009-06-14 @ Dinaburg L 0-162.6 1667 1382 71.72% 15.69% 12.59%+1.90 -22.1 33
2009-06-18 Dinaburg L 0-333.8 1231 1404 21.45% 16.49% 62.07%-1.13 -20.5 23
2009-06-18 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-033.8 1404 1231 62.07% 16.49% 21.45%+1.13 +20.5 21
2009-06-18 Skonto W 2-158.9 1645 1558 54.56% 16.78% 28.66%+0.64 +9.2 36
2009-06-18 @ Ventspils L 1-258.9 1558 1645 28.66% 16.78% 54.56%-0.64 -9.2 29
2009-06-18 Tranzits Ventspils W 1-046.2 1153 1260 28.53% 16.78% 54.70%-0.68 +17.0 9
2009-06-18 @ Blazma L 0-146.2 1260 1153 54.70% 16.78% 28.53%+0.68 -17.0 7
2009-06-19 FK Jurmala-VV L 2-355.9 1307 1210 55.68% 16.75% 27.57%+0.71 -15.4 15
2009-06-19 @ JFK Olimps W 3-255.9 1210 1307 27.57% 16.75% 55.68%-0.71 +15.4 26
2009-06-22 Blazma W 3-036.2 1226 1170 50.63% 16.87% 32.50%+0.43 +29.6 29
2009-06-22 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-336.2 1170 1226 32.50% 16.87% 50.63%-0.43 -29.6 9
2009-06-22 FK Jurmala-VV W 6-031.0 1548 1256 73.57% 15.45% 10.99%+2.05 +20.8 32
2009-06-22 @ Skonto L 0-631.0 1256 1548 10.99% 15.45% 73.57%-2.05 -20.8 29
2009-06-22 Dinaburg D 1-156.9 1291 1424 25.59% 16.68% 57.73%-0.86 +2.3 16
2009-06-22 @ JFK Olimps D 1-156.9 1424 1291 57.73% 16.68% 25.59%+0.86 -2.3 22
2009-06-22 Ventspils W 2-164.6 1643 1654 41.33% 16.94% 41.73%-0.03 +12.6 36
2009-06-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-264.6 1654 1643 41.73% 16.94% 41.33%+0.03 -12.6 36
2009-06-26 Dinaburg L 1-238.2 1140 1422 12.78% 15.72% 71.50%-1.87 -4.3 9
2009-06-26 @ Blazma W 2-138.2 1422 1140 71.50% 15.72% 12.78%+1.87 +4.3 25
2009-06-26 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-438.2 1235 1655 6.34% 14.32% 79.34%-2.82 -5.3 29
2009-06-26 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 4-138.2 1655 1235 79.34% 14.32% 6.34%+2.82 +5.3 39
2009-06-27 Skonto L 1-835.0 1294 1569 13.17% 15.77% 71.06%-1.83 -23.6 16
2009-06-27 @ JFK Olimps W 8-135.0 1569 1294 71.06% 15.77% 13.17%+1.83 +23.6 35
2009-06-28 FK Jurmala-VV L 1-247.8 1243 1230 44.90% 16.93% 38.17%+0.14 -13.4 7
2009-06-28 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 2-147.8 1230 1243 38.17% 16.93% 44.90%-0.14 +13.4 32
2009-06-30 Ventspils L 0-531.9 1243 1641 7.11% 14.57% 78.32%-2.67 -11.3 32
2009-06-30 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-031.9 1641 1243 78.32% 14.57% 7.11%+2.67 +11.3 39
2009-07-01 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-538.3 1270 1661 7.40% 14.65% 77.95%-2.62 -8.0 16
2009-07-01 @ JFK Olimps W 5-138.3 1661 1270 77.95% 14.65% 7.40%+2.62 +8.0 42
2009-07-01 Skonto L 0-132.6 1136 1593 5.25% 13.89% 80.86%-3.07 -1.9 9
2009-07-01 @ Blazma W 1-032.6 1593 1136 80.86% 13.89% 5.25%+3.07 +1.9 38
2009-07-04 Blazma W 6-027.8 1669 1134 84.15% 12.69% 3.16%+3.70 +5.8 45
2009-07-04 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-627.8 1134 1669 3.16% 12.69% 84.15%-3.70 -5.8 9
2009-07-04 JFK Olimps W 5-347.4 1652 1262 78.86% 14.44% 6.70%+2.72 +3.3 42
2009-07-04 @ Ventspils L 3-547.4 1262 1652 6.70% 14.44% 78.86%-2.72 -3.3 16
2009-07-04 Tranzits Ventspils W 4-136.9 1595 1230 77.63% 14.72% 7.64%+2.54 +6.4 41
2009-07-04 @ Skonto L 1-436.9 1230 1595 7.64% 14.72% 77.63%-2.54 -6.4 7
2009-07-08 Blazma W 5-027.6 1656 1128 83.95% 12.78% 3.28%+3.65 +5.1 45
2009-07-08 @ Ventspils L 0-527.6 1128 1656 3.28% 12.78% 83.95%-3.65 -5.1 9
2009-07-08 FK Jurmala-VV W 7-035.8 1259 1232 46.72% 16.92% 36.36%+0.23 +72.2 19
2009-07-08 @ JFK Olimps L 0-735.8 1232 1259 36.36% 16.92% 46.72%-0.23 -72.2 32
2009-07-08 Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-059.3 1224 1674 5.43% 13.97% 80.60%-3.03 +24.7 10
2009-07-08 @ Tranzits Ventspils L 0-159.3 1674 1224 80.60% 13.97% 5.43%+3.03 -24.7 45
2009-07-08 Skonto L 0-528.3 1159 1601 5.68% 14.07% 80.24%-2.97 -9.0 32
2009-07-08 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-028.3 1601 1159 80.24% 14.07% 5.68%+2.97 +9.0 44
2009-07-19 JFK Olimps L 0-238.1 1248 1331 31.61% 16.85% 51.54%-0.51 -19.9 10
2009-07-19 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 2-038.1 1331 1248 51.54% 16.85% 31.61%+0.51 +19.9 22
2009-07-26 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-031.8 1426 1150 72.45% 15.60% 11.95%+1.93 +8.1 28
2009-07-26 @ Dinaburg L 0-231.8 1150 1426 11.95% 15.60% 72.45%-1.93 -8.1 32
2009-07-30 Dinaburg L 0-234.6 1228 1434 18.40% 16.29% 65.31%-1.36 -12.3 10
2009-07-30 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 2-034.6 1434 1228 65.31% 16.29% 18.40%+1.36 +12.2 31
2009-08-01 Blazma L 0-340.0 1142 1123 45.63% 16.93% 37.45%+0.18 -39.5 32
2009-08-01 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-040.0 1123 1142 37.45% 16.93% 45.63%-0.18 +39.5 12
2009-08-02 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-133.3 1650 1103 84.51% 12.53% 2.96%+3.78 +2.4 48
2009-08-02 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-433.3 1103 1650 2.96% 12.53% 84.51%-3.78 -2.4 32
2009-08-03 Dinaburg L 0-160.5 1610 1447 63.09% 16.43% 20.48%+1.17 -19.5 44
2009-08-03 @ Skonto W 1-060.5 1447 1610 20.48% 16.43% 63.09%-1.17 +19.5 34
2009-08-08 Tranzits Ventspils W 7-030.8 1661 1216 81.13% 13.81% 5.06%+3.09 +11.0 48
2009-08-08 @ Ventspils L 0-730.8 1216 1661 5.06% 13.81% 81.13%-3.09 -11.0 10
2009-08-15 FK Jurmala-VV D 1-154.9 1205 1100 56.71% 16.71% 26.58%+0.77 -2.2 11
2009-08-15 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 1-154.9 1100 1205 26.58% 16.71% 56.71%-0.77 +2.2 33
2009-08-15 JFK Olimps W 3-152.1 1163 1351 19.99% 16.40% 63.61%-1.24 +32.0 15
2009-08-15 @ Blazma L 1-352.1 1351 1163 63.61% 16.40% 19.99%+1.24 -32.0 22
2009-08-15 Ventspils L 0-427.8 1103 1672 2.92% 12.49% 84.60%-3.84 -3.7 33
2009-08-15 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 4-027.8 1672 1103 84.60% 12.49% 2.92%+3.84 +3.6 51
2009-08-16 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-254.1 1466 1652 20.20% 16.41% 63.38%-1.22 -6.7 34
2009-08-16 @ Dinaburg W 2-154.1 1652 1466 63.38% 16.41% 20.20%+1.22 +6.7 51
2009-08-19 Skonto L 0-162.6 1659 1591 52.18% 16.84% 30.99%+0.51 -16.2 51
2009-08-19 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-062.6 1591 1659 30.99% 16.84% 52.18%-0.51 +16.2 47
2009-08-20 FK Jurmala-VV L 0-339.2 1099 1099 42.92% 16.94% 40.14%+0.05 +0.0 33
2009-08-20 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-039.2 1099 1099 40.14% 16.94% 42.92%-0.05 +0.0 36
2009-08-23 JFK Olimps W 1-049.6 1099 1319 17.24% 16.20% 66.56%-1.45 +20.5 39
2009-08-23 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-149.6 1319 1099 66.56% 16.20% 17.24%+1.45 -20.5 22
2009-08-24 FK Jurmala-VV W 1-032.5 1459 1119 76.35% 14.98% 8.66%+2.37 +3.1 37
2009-08-24 @ Dinaburg L 0-132.5 1119 1459 8.66% 14.98% 76.35%-2.37 -3.1 39
2009-08-26 Tranzits Ventspils W 2-142.7 1298 1203 55.57% 16.75% 27.68%+0.70 +8.9 25
2009-08-26 @ JFK Olimps L 1-242.7 1203 1298 27.68% 16.75% 55.57%-0.70 -8.9 11
2009-08-29 FK Jurmala-VV L 0-342.4 1195 1116 53.48% 16.81% 29.71%+0.58 -45.5 15
2009-08-29 @ Blazma W 3-042.4 1116 1195 29.71% 16.81% 53.48%-0.58 +45.5 42
2009-08-29 Skonto L 0-728.3 1162 1607 5.58% 14.03% 80.38%-2.99 -12.2 42
2009-08-29 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 7-028.3 1607 1162 80.38% 14.03% 5.58%+2.99 +12.2 50
2009-08-30 Dinaburg L 0-139.5 1307 1463 23.19% 16.58% 60.24%-1.01 -8.0 25
2009-08-30 @ JFK Olimps W 1-039.5 1463 1307 60.24% 16.58% 23.19%+1.01 +8.0 40
2009-08-30 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-266.6 1676 1642 47.54% 16.91% 35.55%+0.28 -14.1 51
2009-08-30 @ Ventspils W 2-166.6 1642 1676 35.55% 16.91% 47.54%-0.28 +14.1 54
2009-09-05 Blazma D 1-154.9 1194 1149 49.17% 16.89% 33.95%+0.36 -1.1 12
2009-09-05 @ Tranzits Ventspils D 1-154.9 1149 1194 33.95% 16.89% 49.17%-0.36 +1.1 16
2009-09-10 Blazma W 1-033.1 1471 1150 75.25% 15.18% 9.57%+2.24 +3.5 43
2009-09-10 @ Dinaburg L 0-133.1 1150 1471 9.57% 15.18% 75.25%-2.24 -3.5 16
2009-09-13 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-030.0 1657 1150 83.31% 13.04% 3.65%+3.51 +3.5 57
2009-09-13 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-330.0 1150 1657 3.65% 13.04% 83.31%-3.51 -3.5 42
2009-09-13 Dinaburg W 1-049.6 1661 1474 65.38% 16.28% 18.34%+1.33 +6.5 54
2009-09-13 @ Ventspils L 0-149.6 1474 1661 18.34% 16.28% 65.38%-1.33 -6.5 43
2009-09-13 Skonto L 0-237.6 1299 1619 10.57% 15.37% 74.06%-2.14 -7.2 25
2009-09-13 @ JFK Olimps W 2-037.6 1619 1299 74.06% 15.37% 10.57%+2.14 +7.2 53
2009-09-13 Tranzits Ventspils L 1-245.0 1146 1193 36.30% 16.92% 46.79%-0.27 -11.2 42
2009-09-13 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 2-145.0 1193 1146 46.79% 16.92% 36.30%+0.27 +11.2 15
2009-09-17 Blazma W 4-028.4 1626 1147 82.40% 13.38% 4.22%+3.33 +5.4 56
2009-09-17 @ Skonto L 0-428.4 1147 1626 4.22% 13.38% 82.40%-3.33 -5.4 16
2009-09-17 JFK Olimps W 3-036.0 1660 1292 77.81% 14.69% 7.51%+2.56 +7.4 60
2009-09-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-336.0 1292 1660 7.51% 14.69% 77.81%-2.56 -7.4 25
2009-09-17 Tranzits Ventspils W 2-139.0 1468 1204 71.57% 15.71% 12.72%+1.85 +4.3 46
2009-09-17 @ Dinaburg L 1-239.0 1204 1468 12.72% 15.71% 71.57%-1.85 -4.3 15
2009-09-20 Dinaburg L 0-133.0 1135 1472 9.70% 15.21% 75.09%-2.25 -3.5 42
2009-09-20 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 1-033.0 1472 1135 75.09% 15.21% 9.70%+2.25 +3.5 49
2009-09-20 Skonto L 1-338.0 1200 1632 5.98% 14.19% 79.83%-2.90 -3.5 15
2009-09-20 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 3-138.0 1632 1200 79.83% 14.19% 5.98%+2.90 +3.5 59
2009-09-20 Ventspils L 0-237.7 1284 1668 7.67% 14.73% 77.60%-2.57 -5.2 25
2009-09-20 @ JFK Olimps W 2-037.7 1668 1284 77.60% 14.73% 7.67%+2.57 +5.2 57
2009-09-23 Ventspils L 0-135.5 1196 1673 4.74% 13.66% 81.61%-3.21 -1.7 15
2009-09-23 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 1-035.5 1673 1196 81.61% 13.66% 4.74%+3.21 +1.7 60
2009-09-26 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-241.7 1635 1131 83.21% 13.08% 3.71%+3.49 +1.2 62
2009-09-26 @ Skonto L 2-341.7 1131 1635 3.71% 13.08% 83.21%-3.49 -1.2 42
2009-09-26 JFK Olimps L 0-531.9 1130 1279 23.86% 16.61% 59.53%-0.97 -36.4 42
2009-09-26 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-031.9 1279 1130 59.53% 16.61% 23.86%+0.97 +36.3 28
2009-09-26 Tranzits Ventspils W 4-030.7 1668 1195 82.16% 13.47% 4.37%+3.28 +5.6 63
2009-09-26 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-430.7 1195 1668 4.37% 13.47% 82.16%-3.28 -5.6 15
2009-09-26 Ventspils L 0-231.7 1141 1675 3.52% 12.95% 83.53%-3.59 -2.3 16
2009-09-26 @ Blazma W 2-031.7 1675 1141 83.53% 12.95% 3.52%+3.59 +2.3 63
2009-09-30 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-032.5 1316 1094 68.38% 16.04% 15.58%+1.56 +10.5 31
2009-09-30 @ JFK Olimps L 0-232.5 1094 1316 15.58% 16.04% 68.38%-1.56 -10.5 42
2009-09-30 Tranzits Ventspils D 1-154.8 1139 1189 35.86% 16.91% 47.23%-0.29 +0.8 17
2009-09-30 @ Blazma D 1-154.8 1189 1139 47.23% 16.91% 35.86%+0.29 -0.8 16
2009-10-03 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-034.9 1140 1083 50.68% 16.86% 32.46%+0.43 +38.7 20
2009-10-03 @ Blazma L 0-434.9 1083 1140 32.46% 16.86% 50.68%-0.43 -38.7 42
2009-10-03 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-432.2 1045 1673 2.13% 11.72% 86.15%-4.24 -1.7 42
2009-10-03 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 4-132.2 1673 1045 86.15% 11.72% 2.13%+4.24 +1.7 66
2009-10-04 Ventspils D 0-069.4 1636 1677 37.14% 16.92% 45.93%-0.23 +0.7 63
2009-10-04 @ Skonto D 0-069.4 1677 1636 45.93% 16.92% 37.14%+0.23 -0.7 64
2009-10-11 Dinaburg W 3-049.0 1178 1475 11.86% 15.59% 72.56%-1.98 +61.2 23
2009-10-11 @ Blazma L 0-349.0 1475 1178 72.56% 15.59% 11.86%+1.98 -61.2 49
2009-10-15 FK Jurmala-VV W 8-025.7 1677 1043 86.74% 11.39% 1.87%+4.38 +4.4 67
2009-10-15 @ Ventspils L 0-825.7 1043 1677 1.87% 11.39% 86.74%-4.38 -4.4 42
2009-10-18 Blazma W 3-248.1 1326 1240 54.49% 16.78% 28.73%+0.64 +8.7 34
2009-10-18 @ JFK Olimps L 2-348.1 1240 1326 28.73% 16.78% 54.49%-0.64 -8.7 23
2009-10-18 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-132.0 1681 1039 86.94% 11.28% 1.78%+4.44 +1.4 70
2009-10-18 @ Ventspils L 1-432.0 1039 1681 1.78% 11.28% 86.94%-4.44 -1.4 42
2009-10-18 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-657.4 1637 1675 37.57% 16.93% 45.50%-0.21 -44.7 63
2009-10-18 @ Skonto W 6-157.4 1675 1637 45.50% 16.93% 37.57%+0.21 +44.7 69
2009-10-18 Tranzits Ventspils W 2-151.9 1037 1188 23.63% 16.60% 59.77%-0.98 +17.4 45
2009-10-18 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 1-251.9 1188 1037 59.77% 16.60% 23.63%+0.98 -17.4 16
2009-10-21 Dinaburg W 3-043.5 1720 1414 74.34% 15.33% 10.33%+2.13 +10.2 72
2009-10-21 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-343.5 1414 1720 10.33% 15.33% 74.34%-2.13 -10.2 49
2009-10-24 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-144.7 1055 1055 42.92% 16.94% 40.14%+0.05 +0.0 48
2009-10-24 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 1-344.7 1055 1055 40.14% 16.94% 42.92%-0.05 +0.0 48
2009-10-24 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-341.4 1231 1730 4.22% 13.39% 82.39%-3.36 -2.5 23
2009-10-24 @ Blazma W 3-141.4 1730 1231 82.39% 13.39% 4.22%+3.36 +2.5 75
2009-10-25 Dinaburg W 3-048.8 1055 1404 9.12% 15.09% 75.80%-2.34 +63.9 51
2009-10-25 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-348.8 1404 1055 75.80% 15.09% 9.12%+2.34 -63.9 49
2009-10-26 Skonto L 0-262.0 1682 1592 54.92% 16.77% 28.31%+0.66 -32.1 70
2009-10-26 @ Ventspils W 2-062.0 1592 1682 28.31% 16.77% 54.92%-0.66 +32.1 66
2009-11-01 Blazma L 0-236.4 1118 1228 28.23% 16.77% 55.01%-0.70 -18.0 51
2009-11-01 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 2-036.4 1228 1118 55.01% 16.77% 28.23%+0.70 +18.0 26
2009-11-01 FK Jurmala-VV W 7-026.5 1625 1100 83.84% 12.82% 3.34%+3.63 +7.1 69
2009-11-01 @ Skonto L 0-726.5 1100 1625 3.34% 12.82% 83.84%-3.63 -7.1 51
2009-11-01 JFK Olimps L 0-341.0 1340 1335 43.69% 16.94% 39.37%+0.09 -38.1 49
2009-11-01 @ Dinaburg W 3-041.0 1335 1340 39.37% 16.94% 43.69%-0.09 +38.0 37
2009-11-01 Ventspils D 1-173.7 1732 1650 53.94% 16.80% 29.26%+0.61 -1.8 76
2009-11-01 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-173.7 1650 1732 29.26% 16.80% 53.94%-0.61 +1.8 71
2009-11-05 Skonto L 0-336.3 1302 1632 10.08% 15.28% 74.64%-2.20 -10.0 49
2009-11-05 @ Dinaburg W 3-036.3 1632 1302 74.64% 15.28% 10.08%+2.20 +10.0 72
2009-11-08 FK Jurmala-VV L 1-447.1 1171 1093 53.41% 16.81% 29.78%+0.58 -38.3 16
2009-11-08 @ Tranzits Ventspils W 4-147.1 1093 1171 29.78% 16.81% 53.41%-0.58 +38.3 54
2009-11-08 JFK Olimps D 3-374.6 1642 1373 71.96% 15.66% 12.38%+1.89 -2.8 73
2009-11-08 @ Skonto D 3-374.6 1373 1642 12.38% 15.66% 71.96%-1.89 +2.8 38
2009-11-08 Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-832.5 1132 1730 2.49% 12.10% 85.40%-4.04 -3.1 54
2009-11-08 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 8-232.5 1730 1132 85.40% 12.10% 2.49%+4.04 +3.1 79
2009-11-08 Ventspils L 0-336.2 1292 1652 8.65% 14.98% 76.37%-2.41 -8.6 49
2009-11-08 @ Dinaburg W 3-036.2 1652 1292 76.37% 14.98% 8.65%+2.41 +8.6 74

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-07-08 5.43% @ Tranzits Ventspils 1224 1 Liepajas Metalurgs 1674 0
2 2009-10-25 9.12% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1055 3 Dinaburg 1404 0
3 2009-10-11 11.86% @ Blazma 1178 3 Dinaburg 1475 0
4 2009-06-14 12.59% @ Dinaburg 1382 1 Ventspils 1667 0
5 2009-08-23 17.24% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1099 1 JFK Olimps 1319 0
6 2009-08-15 19.99% @ Blazma 1163 3 JFK Olimps 1351 1
7 2009-08-03 20.48% Dinaburg 1447 1 @ Skonto 1610 0
8 2009-10-18 23.63% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1037 2 Tranzits Ventspils 1188 1
9 2009-05-13 23.86% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1246 1 Dinaburg 1395 0
10 2009-05-06 25.57% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1224 4 Tranzits Ventspils 1357 2
11 2009-06-14 27.33% @ Skonto 1541 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1659 1
12 2009-06-19 27.57% FK Jurmala-VV 1210 3 @ JFK Olimps 1307 2
13 2009-04-05 27.84% @ JFK Olimps 1229 4 FK Jurmala-VV 1342 0
14 2009-10-26 28.31% Skonto 1592 2 @ Ventspils 1682 0
15 2009-06-18 28.53% @ Blazma 1153 1 Tranzits Ventspils 1260 0
16 2009-08-29 29.71% FK Jurmala-VV 1116 3 @ Blazma 1195 0
17 2009-11-08 29.78% FK Jurmala-VV 1093 4 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1171 1
18 2009-06-11 30.68% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1200 2 Tranzits Ventspils 1290 0
19 2009-08-19 30.99% Skonto 1591 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1659 0
20 2009-03-21 31.05% FK Jurmala-VV 1327 2 @ Dinaburg 1395 1
21 2009-05-31 32.33% @ Blazma 1136 4 FK Jurmala-VV 1213 3
22 2009-08-30 35.55% Liepajas Metalurgs 1642 2 @ Ventspils 1676 1
23 2009-08-01 37.45% Blazma 1123 3 @ FK Jurmala-VV 1142 0
24 2009-06-28 38.17% FK Jurmala-VV 1230 2 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1243 1
25 2009-11-01 39.37% JFK Olimps 1335 3 @ Dinaburg 1340 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-07-08 72.19 @ JFK Olimps 7 1259 46.72% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1232 36.36% 16.92%
2 2009-10-25 63.88 @ FK Jurmala-VV 3 1055 9.12% Dinaburg 0 1404 75.80% 15.09%
3 2009-04-05 61.43 @ JFK Olimps 4 1229 27.84% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1342 55.41% 16.76%
4 2009-10-11 61.21 @ Blazma 3 1178 11.86% Dinaburg 0 1475 72.56% 15.59%
5 2009-08-29 45.50 FK Jurmala-VV 3 1116 29.71% @ Blazma 0 1195 53.48% 16.81%
6 2009-10-18 44.70 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1675 45.50% @ Skonto 1 1637 37.57% 16.93%
7 2009-04-18 40.84 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1585 48.51% Skonto 0 1545 34.59% 16.90%
8 2009-08-01 39.48 Blazma 3 1123 37.45% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1142 45.63% 16.93%
9 2009-10-03 38.67 @ Blazma 4 1140 50.68% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1083 32.46% 16.86%
10 2009-05-28 38.35 JFK Olimps 5 1273 43.21% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1 1251 39.85% 16.94%
11 2009-11-08 38.32 FK Jurmala-VV 4 1093 29.78% @ Tranzits Ventspils 1 1171 53.41% 16.81%
12 2009-11-01 38.05 JFK Olimps 3 1335 39.37% @ Dinaburg 0 1340 43.69% 16.94%
13 2009-09-26 36.35 JFK Olimps 5 1279 59.53% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1130 23.86% 16.61%
14 2009-10-26 32.11 Skonto 2 1592 28.31% @ Ventspils 0 1682 54.92% 16.77%
15 2009-08-15 32.02 @ Blazma 3 1163 19.99% JFK Olimps 1 1351 63.61% 16.40%
16 2009-06-11 30.80 @ FK Jurmala-VV 2 1200 30.68% Tranzits Ventspils 0 1290 52.49% 16.83%
17 2009-03-14 29.66 Skonto 7 1487 70.54% @ Blazma 0 1218 13.63% 15.83%
18 2009-06-22 29.63 @ FK Jurmala-VV 3 1226 50.63% Blazma 0 1170 32.50% 16.87%
19 2009-05-06 26.09 @ FK Jurmala-VV 4 1224 25.57% Tranzits Ventspils 2 1357 57.75% 16.68%
20 2009-07-08 24.68 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1 1224 5.43% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1674 80.60% 13.97%
21 2009-04-30 24.34 Skonto 7 1489 68.14% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1 1251 15.80% 16.07%
22 2009-06-27 23.63 Skonto 8 1569 71.06% @ JFK Olimps 1 1294 13.17% 15.77%
23 2009-06-14 22.10 @ Dinaburg 1 1382 12.59% Ventspils 0 1667 71.72% 15.69%
24 2009-05-10 21.32 @ Dinaburg 2 1374 48.89% Tranzits Ventspils 0 1331 34.22% 16.89%
25 2009-06-22 20.78 @ Skonto 6 1548 73.57% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1256 10.99% 15.45%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-11-08 74.6 @ Skonto 3 1642 71.96% JFK Olimps 3 1373 12.38% 15.66%
2 2009-11-01 73.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1732 53.94% Ventspils 1 1650 29.26% 16.80%
3 2009-04-30 72.2 @ Ventspils 1 1636 44.39% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1626 38.68% 16.93%
4 2009-10-04 69.4 @ Skonto 0 1636 37.14% Ventspils 0 1677 45.93% 16.92%
5 2009-06-14 67.1 @ Skonto 2 1541 27.33% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1659 55.93% 16.74%
6 2009-08-30 66.6 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1642 35.55% @ Ventspils 1 1676 47.54% 16.91%
7 2009-04-13 64.9 @ Tranzits Ventspils 3 1364 56.65% FK Jurmala-VV 3 1260 26.63% 16.72%
8 2009-06-22 64.6 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1643 41.33% Ventspils 1 1654 41.73% 16.94%
9 2009-04-08 64.5 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1570 74.18% FK Jurmala-VV 2 1267 10.47% 15.36%
10 2009-04-08 64.4 @ Ventspils 1 1621 71.46% Tranzits Ventspils 1 1360 12.82% 15.72%
11 2009-06-14 62.6 @ Dinaburg 1 1382 12.59% Ventspils 0 1667 71.72% 15.69%
12 2009-08-19 62.6 Skonto 1 1591 30.99% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1659 52.18% 16.84%
13 2009-05-31 62.3 @ Dinaburg 1 1386 22.97% Skonto 1 1544 60.46% 16.57%
14 2009-10-26 62.0 Skonto 2 1592 28.31% @ Ventspils 0 1682 54.92% 16.77%
15 2009-04-18 60.8 @ Ventspils 0 1626 72.18% Dinaburg 0 1354 12.19% 15.63%
16 2009-05-31 60.7 @ FK Jurmala-VV 1 1199 5.21% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1657 80.91% 13.88%
17 2009-08-03 60.5 Dinaburg 1 1447 20.48% @ Skonto 0 1610 63.09% 16.43%
18 2009-05-13 59.7 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1 1310 16.86% Skonto 1 1534 66.97% 16.16%
19 2009-07-08 59.3 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1 1224 5.43% Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1674 80.60% 13.97%
20 2009-06-18 58.9 @ Ventspils 2 1645 54.56% Skonto 1 1558 28.66% 16.78%
21 2009-03-14 57.7 @ Tranzits Ventspils 1 1374 39.93% Dinaburg 1 1395 43.13% 16.94%
22 2009-05-31 57.4 @ Blazma 4 1136 32.33% FK Jurmala-VV 3 1213 50.81% 16.86%
23 2009-10-18 57.4 Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1675 45.50% @ Skonto 1 1637 37.57% 16.93%
24 2009-06-22 56.9 @ JFK Olimps 1 1291 25.59% Dinaburg 1 1424 57.73% 16.68%
25 2009-06-19 55.9 FK Jurmala-VV 3 1210 27.57% @ JFK Olimps 2 1307 55.68% 16.75%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-10-15 25.7 @ Ventspils 8 1677 86.74% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1043 1.87% 11.39%
2 2009-11-01 26.5 @ Skonto 7 1625 83.84% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1100 3.34% 12.82%
3 2009-07-08 27.6 @ Ventspils 5 1656 83.95% Blazma 0 1128 3.28% 12.78%
4 2009-07-04 27.8 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1669 84.15% Blazma 0 1134 3.16% 12.69%
5 2009-08-15 27.8 Ventspils 4 1672 84.60% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1103 2.92% 12.49%
6 2009-05-10 28.3 @ Skonto 4 1525 77.95% Blazma 0 1154 7.40% 14.65%
7 2009-07-08 28.3 Skonto 5 1601 80.24% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1159 5.68% 14.07%
8 2009-08-29 28.3 Skonto 7 1607 80.38% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1162 5.58% 14.03%
9 2009-09-17 28.4 @ Skonto 4 1626 82.40% Blazma 0 1147 4.22% 13.38%
10 2009-03-21 29.3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1553 77.63% Blazma 0 1189 7.65% 14.73%
11 2009-05-14 29.8 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1639 82.24% @ Blazma 0 1144 4.32% 13.44%
12 2009-05-28 29.8 Ventspils 3 1649 82.76% @ Blazma 0 1140 3.99% 13.25%
13 2009-09-13 30.0 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1657 83.31% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1150 3.65% 13.04%
14 2009-03-14 30.2 Skonto 7 1487 70.54% @ Blazma 0 1218 13.63% 15.83%
15 2009-09-26 30.7 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1668 82.16% Tranzits Ventspils 0 1195 4.37% 13.47%
16 2009-08-08 30.8 @ Ventspils 7 1661 81.13% Tranzits Ventspils 0 1216 5.06% 13.81%
17 2009-06-22 31.0 @ Skonto 6 1548 73.57% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1256 10.99% 15.45%
18 2009-09-26 31.7 Ventspils 2 1675 83.53% @ Blazma 0 1141 3.52% 12.95%
19 2009-07-26 31.8 @ Dinaburg 2 1426 72.45% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1150 11.95% 15.60%
20 2009-06-30 31.9 Ventspils 5 1641 78.32% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1243 7.11% 14.57%
21 2009-09-26 31.9 JFK Olimps 5 1279 59.53% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1130 23.86% 16.61%
22 2009-10-18 32.0 @ Ventspils 4 1681 86.94% FK Jurmala-VV 1 1039 1.78% 11.28%
23 2009-06-11 32.1 @ Ventspils 3 1662 81.60% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1205 4.74% 13.66%
24 2009-10-03 32.2 Liepajas Metalurgs 4 1673 86.15% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1 1045 2.13% 11.72%
25 2009-08-24 32.5 @ Dinaburg 1 1459 76.35% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1119 8.66% 14.98%