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2018 Virsliga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Riga FC

64 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Riga FC

11.07 points above expected

64 points · 52.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Jelgava

7.95 points below expected

21 points · 28.95 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Riga FC 28 20 4 4 64 45 16 +29 52.93 +11.07
2 Ventspils 28 18 6 4 60 54 22 +32 54.55 +5.45
3 FK RFS 28 18 1 9 55 57 23 +34 52.60 +2.40
4 Liepaja 28 15 6 7 51 46 25 +21 49.13 +1.87
5 Spartaks Jurmala 28 12 6 10 42 48 37 +11 44.38 -2.38
6 Jelgava 28 6 3 19 21 19 48 -29 28.95 -7.95
7 Metta 28 5 4 19 19 24 52 -28 21.84 -2.84
8 Valmiera Glass ViA 28 2 2 24 8 22 92 -70 14.86 -6.86

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Riga FC 64 52.93 +11.07
2 Ventspils 60 54.55 +5.45
3 FK RFS 55 52.60 +2.40
4 Liepaja 51 49.13 +1.87
5 Spartaks Jurmala 42 44.38 -2.38

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jelgava 21 28.95 -7.95
2 Valmiera Glass ViA 8 14.86 -6.86
3 Metta 19 21.84 -2.84
4 Spartaks Jurmala 42 44.38 -2.38
5 Liepaja 51 49.13 +1.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Riga FC 12 May 27 – Sep 15 1 in 941
2 FK RFS 8 May 11 – Jul 22 1 in 58
3 Metta 3 Aug 18 – Sep 1 1 in 52
4 Valmiera Glass ViA 1 Oct 3 – Oct 3 1 in 35
5 Ventspils 5 Jul 15 – Aug 19 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK RFS 3 Aug 24 – Sep 15 1 in 39
2 Liepaja 2 Aug 13 – Aug 18 1 in 26
3 Ventspils 3 Jun 15 – Jun 29 1 in 19
4 Valmiera Glass ViA 10 Jun 30 – Sep 29 1 in 15
5 Jelgava 6 Jul 22 – Sep 1 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Riga FC 19 May 27 – Nov 10 1 in 162
2 Ventspils 10 Mar 31 – May 26 1 in 23
3 FK RFS 9 May 5 – Jul 22 1 in 20
4 Metta 3 Apr 28 – May 12 1 in 16
5 Liepaja 6 Mar 31 – May 4 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Metta 17 Apr 1 – Aug 12 1 in 60
2 Valmiera Glass ViA 22 Mar 31 – Sep 29 1 in 35
3 FK RFS 3 Aug 24 – Sep 15 1 in 11
4 Liepaja 3 May 4 – May 16 1 in 7
5 Ventspils 3 Jun 15 – Jun 29 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Riga FC 1520 64 +1 11 11.9 -0.9
Ventspils 1520 60 +42 11 9.5 +1.5
FK RFS 1388 55 +60 9 9.7 -0.7
Liepaja 1362 51 +5 9 8.5 +0.5
Spartaks Jurmala 1219 42 -81 5 6.2 -1.2
Jelgava 949 21 -48 3 4.1 -1.1
Metta 1045 19 +20 6 5.2 +0.8
Valmiera Glass ViA 836 8 +1 3 2.0 +1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR JEL LIE MET RIG SJ VGV VEN
FK RFS —
4-0-0
8.84
1-0-3
6.38
4-0-0
9.04
2-0-2
6.05
2-0-2
7.03
4-0-0
10.23
1-1-2
5.74
Jelgava
0-0-4
2.57
 —
0-0-4
2.48
2-1-1
6.03
0-0-4
2.58
1-1-2
3.32
3-0-1
8.16
0-1-3
2.63
Liepaja
3-0-1
5.01
4-0-0
8.93
 —
2-0-2
9.54
1-2-1
4.43
1-3-0
5.87
4-0-0
9.67
0-1-3
4.80
Metta
0-0-4
2.38
1-1-2
5.37
2-0-2
1.88
 —
0-0-4
1.98
0-0-4
2.39
2-2-0
7.53
0-1-3
1.44
Riga FC
2-0-2
5.35
4-0-0
8.84
1-2-1
6.96
4-0-0
9.45
 —
3-1-0
6.86
4-0-0
10.17
2-1-1
5.00
Spartaks Jurmala
2-0-2
4.37
2-1-1
8.08
0-3-1
5.52
4-0-0
9.03
0-1-3
4.54
 —
3-0-1
9.90
1-1-2
4.21
Valmiera Glass ViA
0-0-4
1.22
1-0-3
3.24
0-0-4
1.76
0-2-2
3.87
0-0-4
1.29
1-0-3
1.53
 —
0-0-4
1.73
Ventspils
2-1-1
5.66
3-1-0
8.78
3-1-0
6.59
3-1-0
9.99
1-1-2
6.39
2-1-1
7.19
4-0-0
9.72
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +12.6
Allowed 0.86 -7.9
Differential 0.94 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%12.05%8.04%5.36%2.23%0.45%31.70%
112.05%5.36%4.91%3.57%2.23%1.34%29.46%
28.04%4.91%4.46%0.45%0.89%0.45%19.20%
35.36%3.57%0.45%—0.45%0.45%10.27%
42.23%2.23%0.89%0.45%0.89%—6.70%
5+0.45%1.34%0.45%0.45%——2.68%
Total31.70%29.46%19.20%10.27%6.70%2.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.13
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—17.86%7.14%———25.00%
17.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
210.71%7.14%————17.86%
310.71%7.14%————17.86%
410.71%—3.57%———14.29%
5+3.57%——3.57%——7.14%
Total42.86%35.71%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 0.82 +1.21
SD 1.71 0.86 2.08
CV 0.84 1.05 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%25.00%14.29%3.57%—67.86%
17.14%3.57%—3.57%3.57%—17.86%
2—3.57%————3.57%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total14.29%32.14%28.57%17.86%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 1.71 -1.04
SD 1.31 1.15 1.90
CV 1.93 0.67 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%17.86%————21.43%
117.86%7.14%——3.57%—28.57%
217.86%—10.71%———28.57%
37.14%3.57%———3.57%14.29%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total50.00%28.57%14.29%—3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.89 +0.75
SD 1.39 1.26 1.73
CV 0.85 1.41 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%14.29%14.29%——42.86%
17.14%7.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%—35.71%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
33.57%———3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%25.00%28.57%25.00%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.86 -1.00
SD 0.93 1.18 1.59
CV 1.09 0.63 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
135.71%—7.14%———42.86%
214.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4————3.57%—3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total64.29%21.43%10.71%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.57 +1.04
SD 1.31 0.96 1.35
CV 0.82 1.68 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
17.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
310.71%3.57%————14.29%
43.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—17.86%
5+———————
Total28.57%32.14%25.00%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.32 +0.39
SD 1.46 1.19 1.87
CV 0.85 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%14.29%10.71%3.57%42.86%
13.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%35.71%
2—3.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total3.57%7.14%21.43%25.00%25.00%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 3.29 -2.50
SD 0.79 1.58 1.73
CV 1.00 0.48 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
110.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
214.29%10.71%3.57%———28.57%
33.57%10.71%————14.29%
4—10.71%————10.71%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total35.71%53.57%7.14%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 0.79 +1.14
SD 1.44 0.74 1.56
CV 0.75 0.94 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ventspils 1520 60 54.55 +5.45 80.0% 37 44 49 55 60 65 70
Riga FC 1520 64 52.93 +11.07 96.0% 40 44 48 53 57 63 68
FK RFS 1388 55 52.60 +2.40 69.0% 37 42 49 52 57 63 67
Liepaja 1362 51 49.13 +1.87 64.0% 33 36 45 49 53 59 70
Spartaks Jurmala 1219 42 44.38 -2.38 36.0% 32 34 41 44 48 53 56
Metta 1045 19 21.84 -2.84 39.0% 9 12 18 22 26 32 36
Jelgava 949 21 28.95 -7.95 8.0% 17 20 24 29 33 39 43
Valmiera Glass ViA 836 8 14.86 -6.86 10.0% 3 6 11 15 18 23 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.79%
No Edge
41.96%14.29%43.75%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -6.20 Elo pts.
195 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.03 goals
Neutral
-2-0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
Riga FC, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.76 * Some Luck: 4.76 to 7.14 * Lucky: 7.14 to 9.52 * Wild Swing: 9.52 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.61 * Close: 0.61 to 0.91 * Off: 0.91 to 1.22 * Way Off: 1.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.97 points
Some Luck
05.9515
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.762
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.00%
Riga FC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
8.00%
Jelgava
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 261.61
2.87
Strong Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
91%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Some Drama
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Occasional
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Riga FC24.00%31.00%24.00%13.00%8.00%———
Ventspils42.00%20.00%18.00%13.00%7.00%———
FK RFS22.00%28.00%24.00%18.00%8.00%———
Liepaja10.00%15.00%22.00%32.00%19.00%2.00%——
Spartaks Jurmala2.00%6.00%12.00%24.00%53.00%3.00%——
Jelgava————5.00%71.00%22.00%2.00%
Metta—————21.00%61.00%18.00%
Valmiera Glass ViA—————3.00%17.00%80.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
FK RFS 100% — —
Liepaja 100% — —
Riga FC 100% — —
Spartaks Jurmala 100% — —
Ventspils 100% — —
Jelgava 76.00% 22.00% 2.00%
Metta 21.00% 61.00% 18.00%
Valmiera Glass ViA 3.00% 17.00% 80.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-03-31 Riga FC W 1-042.9 1250 1261 40.79% 15.15% 44.06%-0.09 +27.4 3
2018-03-31 @ Liepaja L 0-142.9 1261 1250 44.06% 15.15% 40.79%+0.09 -27.4 0
2018-03-31 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-139.8 1286 1176 57.02% 15.08% 27.91%+0.53 +30.1 3
2018-03-31 @ Ventspils L 1-339.8 1176 1286 27.91% 15.08% 57.02%-0.53 -30.1 0
2018-04-01 Metta W 3-141.4 1218 1157 50.89% 15.13% 33.98%+0.28 +35.8 3
2018-04-01 @ FK RFS L 1-341.4 1157 1218 33.98% 15.13% 50.89%-0.28 -35.8 0
2018-04-01 Spartaks Jurmala W 1-043.4 1233 1258 38.80% 15.15% 46.05%-0.16 +28.5 3
2018-04-01 @ Jelgava L 0-143.4 1258 1233 46.05% 15.15% 38.80%+0.16 -28.5 0
2018-04-06 Ventspils L 0-236.9 1261 1316 34.76% 15.13% 50.11%-0.31 -42.2 3
2018-04-06 @ Jelgava W 2-036.9 1316 1261 50.11% 15.13% 34.76%+0.31 +42.2 6
2018-04-07 Metta W 3-031.5 1230 1121 56.90% 15.08% 28.02%+0.53 +50.7 3
2018-04-07 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-331.5 1121 1230 28.02% 15.08% 56.90%-0.53 -50.7 0
2018-04-08 FK RFS L 1-246.6 1234 1254 39.62% 15.15% 45.23%-0.13 -23.6 0
2018-04-08 @ Riga FC W 2-146.6 1254 1234 45.23% 15.15% 39.62%+0.13 +23.6 6
2018-04-08 Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-029.8 1277 1146 59.51% 15.05% 25.44%+0.64 +60.8 6
2018-04-08 @ Liepaja L 0-429.8 1146 1277 25.44% 15.05% 59.51%-0.64 -60.8 0
2018-04-13 Riga FC L 0-136.5 1070 1210 24.46% 15.03% 60.51%-0.75 -16.4 0
2018-04-13 @ Metta W 1-036.5 1210 1070 60.51% 15.03% 24.46%+0.75 +16.4 3
2018-04-14 Jelgava W 3-033.7 1277 1219 50.56% 15.13% 34.31%+0.27 +60.6 9
2018-04-14 @ FK RFS L 0-333.7 1219 1277 34.31% 15.13% 50.56%-0.27 -60.6 3
2018-04-14 Spartaks Jurmala L 2-440.8 1086 1280 19.06% 14.92% 66.02%-1.03 -19.1 0
2018-04-14 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-240.8 1280 1086 66.02% 14.92% 19.06%+1.03 +19.1 6
2018-04-15 Liepaja D 1-159.1 1358 1338 45.29% 15.15% 39.56%+0.07 -0.8 7
2018-04-15 @ Ventspils D 1-159.1 1338 1358 39.56% 15.15% 45.29%-0.07 +0.8 7
2018-04-21 Riga FC L 0-139.2 1158 1227 32.99% 15.12% 51.89%-0.38 -21.4 3
2018-04-21 @ Jelgava W 1-039.2 1227 1158 51.89% 15.12% 32.99%+0.38 +21.4 6
2018-04-22 FK RFS L 0-626.6 1067 1338 13.12% 14.70% 72.17%-1.43 -48.2 0
2018-04-22 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 6-026.6 1338 1067 72.17% 14.70% 13.12%+1.43 +48.2 12
2018-04-22 Ventspils L 1-246.0 1299 1358 34.35% 15.13% 50.52%-0.33 -20.9 6
2018-04-22 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 2-146.0 1358 1299 50.52% 15.13% 34.35%+0.33 +20.9 10
2018-04-23 Liepaja L 0-326.7 1054 1339 12.25% 14.66% 73.09%-1.50 -23.6 0
2018-04-23 @ Metta W 3-026.7 1339 1054 73.09% 14.66% 12.25%+1.50 +23.6 10
2018-04-28 Spartaks Jurmala L 0-244.2 1386 1278 56.79% 15.08% 28.13%+0.52 -65.1 12
2018-04-28 @ FK RFS W 2-044.2 1278 1386 28.13% 15.08% 56.79%-0.52 +65.1 9
2018-04-28 Valmiera Glass ViA D 2-262.6 1030 1018 44.14% 15.15% 40.71%+0.03 -0.4 1
2018-04-28 @ Metta D 2-262.6 1018 1030 40.71% 15.15% 44.14%-0.03 +0.4 1
2018-04-29 Riga FC W 1-037.9 1378 1248 59.42% 15.05% 25.53%+0.64 +17.0 13
2018-04-29 @ Ventspils L 0-137.9 1248 1378 25.53% 15.05% 59.42%-0.64 -17.0 6
2018-04-30 Jelgava W 3-136.4 1363 1137 68.73% 14.84% 16.43%+1.13 +18.6 13
2018-04-30 @ Liepaja L 1-336.4 1137 1363 16.43% 14.84% 68.73%-1.13 -18.6 3
2018-05-04 Liepaja D 2-264.9 1344 1381 37.13% 15.14% 47.73%-0.23 +1.1 10
2018-05-04 @ Spartaks Jurmala D 2-264.9 1381 1344 47.73% 15.14% 37.13%+0.23 -1.1 14
2018-05-04 Valmiera Glass ViA W 6-130.0 1231 1019 67.61% 14.87% 17.52%+1.06 +44.1 9
2018-05-04 @ Riga FC L 1-630.0 1019 1231 17.52% 14.87% 67.61%-1.06 -44.1 1
2018-05-05 FK RFS D 1-159.4 1395 1321 52.66% 15.12% 32.23%+0.35 -2.9 14
2018-05-05 @ Ventspils D 1-159.4 1321 1395 32.23% 15.12% 52.66%-0.35 +2.9 13
2018-05-06 Metta D 1-157.3 1118 1030 54.42% 15.10% 30.48%+0.42 -3.4 4
2018-05-06 @ Jelgava D 1-157.3 1030 1118 30.48% 15.10% 54.42%-0.42 +3.4 2
2018-05-11 FK RFS L 3-553.8 1380 1324 50.25% 15.13% 34.61%+0.26 -42.5 14
2018-05-11 @ Liepaja W 5-353.8 1324 1380 34.61% 15.13% 50.25%-0.26 +42.5 16
2018-05-11 Valmiera Glass ViA W 5-133.1 1115 975 60.54% 15.03% 24.43%+0.69 +48.8 7
2018-05-11 @ Jelgava L 1-533.1 975 1115 24.43% 15.03% 60.54%-0.69 -48.8 1
2018-05-12 Riga FC L 0-145.8 1345 1275 52.01% 15.12% 32.87%+0.32 -31.8 10
2018-05-12 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 1-045.8 1275 1345 32.87% 15.12% 52.01%-0.32 +31.8 12
2018-05-12 Ventspils D 2-263.1 1033 1393 8.36% 14.38% 77.26%-1.88 +7.9 3
2018-05-12 @ Metta D 2-263.1 1393 1033 77.26% 14.38% 8.36%+1.88 -7.9 15
2018-05-16 FK RFS L 0-132.2 1041 1366 9.98% 14.51% 75.50%-1.70 -7.1 3
2018-05-16 @ Metta W 1-032.2 1366 1041 75.50% 14.51% 9.98%+1.70 +7.1 19
2018-05-16 Jelgava W 1-036.5 1313 1164 61.50% 15.01% 23.48%+0.73 +15.8 13
2018-05-16 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-136.5 1164 1313 23.48% 15.01% 61.50%-0.73 -15.8 7
2018-05-16 Liepaja D 2-263.9 1307 1338 38.10% 15.15% 46.75%-0.19 +0.9 13
2018-05-16 @ Riga FC D 2-263.9 1338 1307 46.75% 15.15% 38.10%+0.19 -0.9 15
2018-05-16 Ventspils L 1-332.3 926 1385 4.92% 13.91% 81.16%-2.39 -5.8 1
2018-05-16 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-132.3 1385 926 81.16% 13.91% 4.92%+2.39 +5.8 18
2018-05-20 Liepaja L 0-227.3 920 1337 6.17% 14.12% 79.71%-2.17 -8.3 1
2018-05-20 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-027.3 1337 920 79.71% 14.12% 6.17%+2.17 +8.3 18
2018-05-20 Spartaks Jurmala L 1-334.6 1034 1329 11.68% 14.62% 73.70%-1.54 -13.5 3
2018-05-20 @ Metta W 3-134.6 1329 1034 73.70% 14.62% 11.68%+1.54 +13.4 16
2018-05-21 Jelgava D 0-053.6 1390 1148 70.07% 14.79% 15.14%+1.21 -9.2 19
2018-05-21 @ Ventspils D 0-053.6 1148 1390 15.14% 14.79% 70.07%-1.21 +9.2 8
2018-05-21 Riga FC W 2-146.0 1373 1308 51.50% 15.12% 33.37%+0.31 +20.4 22
2018-05-21 @ FK RFS L 1-246.0 1308 1373 33.37% 15.12% 51.50%-0.31 -20.3 13
2018-05-26 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-024.5 1342 912 80.21% 14.05% 5.73%+2.18 +11.3 19
2018-05-26 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-324.5 912 1342 5.73% 14.05% 80.21%-2.18 -11.3 1
2018-05-26 Ventspils L 1-441.4 1345 1381 37.33% 15.14% 47.53%-0.22 -55.0 18
2018-05-26 @ Liepaja W 4-141.4 1381 1345 47.53% 15.14% 37.33%+0.22 +54.9 22
2018-05-27 FK RFS L 0-230.9 1157 1394 15.58% 14.81% 69.61%-1.25 -20.4 8
2018-05-27 @ Jelgava W 2-030.9 1394 1157 69.61% 14.81% 15.58%+1.25 +20.4 25
2018-05-27 Metta W 1-033.1 1288 1021 71.85% 14.72% 13.43%+1.34 +9.4 16
2018-05-27 @ Riga FC L 0-133.1 1021 1288 13.43% 14.72% 71.85%-1.34 -9.4 3
2018-06-15 Jelgava W 1-036.1 1297 1137 62.66% 14.99% 22.35%+0.79 +15.1 19
2018-06-15 @ Riga FC L 0-136.1 1137 1297 22.35% 14.99% 62.66%-0.79 -15.1 8
2018-06-15 Spartaks Jurmala L 1-253.8 1436 1353 53.72% 15.11% 31.17%+0.39 -30.9 22
2018-06-15 @ Ventspils W 2-153.8 1353 1436 31.17% 15.11% 53.72%-0.39 +30.9 22
2018-06-16 Liepaja L 0-229.4 1011 1290 12.65% 14.68% 72.67%-1.46 -16.8 3
2018-06-16 @ Metta W 2-029.4 1290 1011 72.67% 14.68% 12.65%+1.46 +16.8 21
2018-06-16 Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-022.6 1414 900 82.72% 13.62% 3.66%+2.61 +9.4 28
2018-06-16 @ FK RFS L 0-422.6 900 1414 3.66% 13.62% 82.72%-2.61 -9.4 1
2018-06-21 Jelgava W 2-031.9 1307 1122 65.14% 14.94% 19.92%+0.92 +25.6 24
2018-06-21 @ Liepaja L 0-231.9 1122 1307 19.92% 14.94% 65.14%-0.92 -25.6 8
2018-06-21 Ventspils W 1-047.8 1312 1405 29.87% 15.10% 55.03%-0.51 +33.5 22
2018-06-21 @ Riga FC L 0-147.8 1405 1312 55.03% 15.10% 29.87%+0.51 -33.5 22
2018-06-22 FK RFS L 0-240.6 1384 1424 36.88% 15.14% 47.97%-0.23 -44.4 22
2018-06-22 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 2-040.6 1424 1384 47.97% 15.14% 36.88%+0.23 +44.4 31
2018-06-22 Metta D 1-157.2 891 995 28.61% 15.09% 56.31%-0.56 +4.0 2
2018-06-22 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 1-157.2 995 891 56.31% 15.09% 28.61%+0.56 -4.0 4
2018-06-26 Spartaks Jurmala W 1-043.3 1346 1340 43.24% 15.15% 41.61%+0.00 +26.1 25
2018-06-26 @ Riga FC L 0-143.3 1340 1346 41.61% 15.15% 43.24%+0.00 -26.1 22
2018-06-29 Ventspils W 3-144.5 1468 1372 55.42% 15.09% 29.49%+0.46 +31.6 34
2018-06-29 @ FK RFS L 1-344.5 1372 1468 29.49% 15.09% 55.42%-0.46 -31.6 22
2018-06-30 Riga FC L 0-226.7 895 1372 4.47% 13.82% 81.70%-2.48 -6.0 2
2018-06-30 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-026.7 1372 895 81.70% 13.82% 4.47%+2.48 +6.0 28
2018-06-30 Spartaks Jurmala D 1-158.5 1332 1314 45.09% 15.15% 39.76%+0.06 -0.7 25
2018-06-30 @ Liepaja D 1-158.5 1314 1332 39.76% 15.15% 45.09%-0.06 +0.7 23
2018-07-01 Metta W 1-037.7 1096 991 56.52% 15.08% 28.40%+0.51 +18.7 11
2018-07-01 @ Jelgava L 0-137.7 991 1096 28.40% 15.08% 56.52%-0.51 -18.7 4
2018-07-15 Metta W 3-133.3 1340 972 77.68% 14.34% 7.98%+1.86 +9.3 25
2018-07-15 @ Ventspils L 1-333.3 972 1340 7.98% 14.34% 77.68%-1.86 -9.3 4
2018-07-15 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-244.0 1115 889 68.73% 14.84% 16.43%+1.13 +10.2 14
2018-07-15 @ Jelgava L 2-344.0 889 1115 16.43% 14.84% 68.73%-1.13 -10.2 2
2018-07-22 FK RFS L 0-226.5 963 1500 3.22% 13.49% 83.29%-2.79 -4.4 4
2018-07-22 @ Metta W 2-026.5 1500 963 83.29% 13.49% 3.22%+2.79 +4.3 37
2018-07-22 Jelgava W 4-134.0 1314 1125 65.55% 14.93% 19.52%+0.94 +30.8 26
2018-07-22 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 1-434.0 1125 1314 19.52% 14.93% 65.55%-0.94 -30.8 14
2018-07-22 Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-128.9 1349 879 81.52% 13.85% 4.62%+2.39 +7.7 28
2018-07-22 @ Ventspils L 1-428.9 879 1349 4.62% 13.85% 81.52%-2.39 -7.7 2
2018-07-29 Valmiera Glass ViA W 6-228.8 1332 871 81.22% 13.90% 4.88%+2.33 +8.8 28
2018-07-29 @ Liepaja L 2-628.8 871 1332 4.88% 13.90% 81.22%-2.33 -8.9 2
2018-07-29 Ventspils L 0-327.3 1094 1357 13.68% 14.73% 71.59%-1.38 -26.2 14
2018-07-29 @ Jelgava W 3-027.3 1357 1094 71.59% 14.73% 13.68%+1.38 +26.2 31
2018-07-30 FK RFS W 1-052.6 1378 1504 25.97% 15.05% 58.98%-0.68 +35.8 31
2018-07-30 @ Riga FC L 0-152.6 1504 1378 58.98% 15.05% 25.97%+0.68 -35.8 37
2018-07-30 Metta W 4-344.0 1345 958 78.52% 14.26% 7.22%+1.96 +4.5 29
2018-07-30 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 3-444.0 958 1345 7.22% 14.26% 78.52%-1.96 -4.5 4
2018-08-12 Riga FC L 0-226.9 954 1413 4.90% 13.91% 81.19%-2.39 -6.6 4
2018-08-12 @ Metta W 2-026.9 1413 954 81.19% 13.91% 4.90%+2.39 +6.6 34
2018-08-13 Jelgava W 1-031.5 1468 1068 79.07% 14.20% 6.73%+2.02 +4.8 40
2018-08-13 @ FK RFS L 0-131.5 1068 1468 6.73% 14.20% 79.07%-2.02 -4.8 14
2018-08-13 Liepaja W 1-042.3 1383 1341 48.43% 15.14% 36.43%+0.19 +23.3 34
2018-08-13 @ Ventspils L 0-142.3 1341 1383 36.43% 15.14% 48.43%-0.19 -23.3 28
2018-08-18 Metta L 0-152.3 1317 947 77.77% 14.33% 7.90%+1.87 -47.5 28
2018-08-18 @ Liepaja W 1-052.3 947 1317 7.90% 14.33% 77.77%-1.87 +47.5 7
2018-08-18 Riga FC L 0-325.7 1063 1420 8.45% 14.38% 77.16%-1.87 -16.5 14
2018-08-18 @ Jelgava W 3-025.7 1420 1063 77.16% 14.38% 8.45%+1.87 +16.5 37
2018-08-19 FK RFS L 2-435.1 862 1473 2.16% 13.05% 84.80%-3.17 -2.2 2
2018-08-19 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-235.1 1473 862 84.80% 13.05% 2.16%+3.17 +2.2 43
2018-08-19 Ventspils L 1-247.4 1350 1407 34.54% 15.13% 50.33%-0.32 -21.0 29
2018-08-19 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 2-147.4 1407 1350 50.33% 15.13% 34.54%+0.32 +21.0 37
2018-08-24 Liepaja L 0-230.7 1047 1270 16.63% 14.85% 68.53%-1.18 -21.7 14
2018-08-24 @ Jelgava W 2-030.7 1270 1047 68.53% 14.85% 16.63%+1.18 +21.7 31
2018-08-24 Riga FC L 0-146.8 1428 1437 41.12% 15.15% 43.73%-0.08 -25.9 37
2018-08-24 @ Ventspils W 1-046.8 1437 1428 43.73% 15.15% 41.12%+0.08 +25.9 40
2018-08-24 Spartaks Jurmala L 0-151.2 1475 1329 61.21% 15.02% 23.77%+0.72 -37.1 43
2018-08-24 @ FK RFS W 1-051.2 1329 1475 23.77% 15.02% 61.21%-0.72 +37.1 32
2018-08-25 Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-141.8 995 860 59.91% 15.04% 25.05%+0.66 +15.8 10
2018-08-25 @ Metta L 1-241.8 860 995 25.05% 15.04% 59.91%-0.66 -15.8 2
2018-08-28 Liepaja W 1-038.2 1462 1291 63.75% 14.97% 21.28%+0.85 +14.4 43
2018-08-28 @ Riga FC L 0-138.2 1291 1462 21.28% 14.97% 63.75%-0.85 -14.4 31
2018-09-01 FK RFS W 2-044.6 1402 1438 37.28% 15.14% 47.57%-0.22 +55.3 40
2018-09-01 @ Ventspils L 0-244.6 1438 1402 47.57% 15.14% 37.28%+0.22 -55.3 43
2018-09-01 Jelgava W 3-036.4 1010 1025 40.36% 15.15% 44.49%-0.11 +75.7 13
2018-09-01 @ Metta L 0-336.4 1025 1010 44.49% 15.15% 40.36%+0.11 -75.7 14
2018-09-01 Liepaja D 2-263.9 1366 1277 54.50% 15.10% 30.40%+0.42 -2.6 33
2018-09-01 @ Spartaks Jurmala D 2-263.9 1277 1366 30.40% 15.10% 54.50%-0.42 +2.6 32
2018-09-01 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-023.0 1477 844 85.18% 12.91% 1.91%+3.22 +3.7 46
2018-09-01 @ Riga FC L 0-323.0 844 1477 1.91% 12.91% 85.18%-3.22 -3.7 2
2018-09-15 FK RFS W 1-047.5 1280 1383 28.65% 15.09% 56.27%-0.56 +34.2 35
2018-09-15 @ Liepaja L 0-147.5 1383 1280 56.27% 15.09% 28.65%+0.56 -34.2 43
2018-09-15 Jelgava L 1-436.3 841 949 28.01% 15.08% 56.91%-0.59 -42.8 2
2018-09-15 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-136.3 949 841 56.91% 15.08% 28.01%+0.59 +42.8 17
2018-09-15 Riga FC L 1-343.9 1363 1481 27.00% 15.07% 57.93%-0.63 -29.2 33
2018-09-15 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 3-143.9 1481 1363 57.93% 15.07% 27.00%+0.63 +29.2 49
2018-09-15 Ventspils L 0-228.4 1086 1457 7.87% 14.33% 77.81%-1.94 -10.6 13
2018-09-15 @ Metta W 2-028.4 1457 1086 77.81% 14.33% 7.87%+1.94 +10.6 43
2018-09-23 Riga FC D 0-057.2 1314 1510 18.93% 14.91% 66.15%-1.04 +7.8 36
2018-09-23 @ Liepaja D 0-057.2 1510 1314 66.15% 14.91% 18.93%+1.04 -7.8 50
2018-09-23 Spartaks Jurmala D 0-053.2 992 1334 9.13% 14.45% 76.42%-1.79 +11.6 18
2018-09-23 @ Jelgava D 0-053.2 1334 992 76.42% 14.45% 9.13%+1.79 -11.6 34
2018-09-23 Ventspils L 1-624.6 798 1468 1.56% 12.67% 85.77%-3.47 -4.0 2
2018-09-23 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 6-124.6 1468 798 85.77% 12.67% 1.56%+3.47 +4.0 46
2018-09-24 Metta W 3-027.0 1349 1076 72.30% 14.70% 13.01%+1.37 +25.0 46
2018-09-24 @ FK RFS L 0-327.0 1076 1349 13.01% 14.70% 72.30%-1.37 -25.0 13
2018-09-28 Spartaks Jurmala L 0-327.0 1051 1323 13.08% 14.70% 72.22%-1.43 -25.1 13
2018-09-28 @ Metta W 3-027.0 1323 1051 72.22% 14.70% 13.08%+1.43 +25.1 37
2018-09-29 Jelgava W 2-027.1 1472 1003 81.45% 13.87% 4.68%+2.37 +6.3 49
2018-09-29 @ Ventspils L 0-227.1 1003 1472 4.68% 13.87% 81.45%-2.37 -6.3 18
2018-09-29 Liepaja L 0-323.6 794 1322 3.39% 13.54% 83.07%-2.74 -6.6 2
2018-09-29 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-023.6 1322 794 83.07% 13.54% 3.39%+2.74 +6.6 39
2018-09-29 Riga FC L 1-247.6 1374 1502 25.74% 15.05% 59.22%-0.69 -16.2 46
2018-09-29 @ FK RFS W 2-147.6 1502 1374 59.22% 15.05% 25.74%+0.69 +16.2 53
2018-10-03 Liepaja L 0-144.8 1357 1328 46.56% 15.15% 38.29%+0.12 -28.8 46
2018-10-03 @ FK RFS W 1-044.8 1328 1357 38.29% 15.15% 46.56%-0.12 +28.8 42
2018-10-03 Spartaks Jurmala W 2-158.9 787 1348 2.84% 13.35% 83.81%-2.91 +48.1 5
2018-10-03 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 1-258.9 1348 787 83.81% 13.35% 2.84%+2.91 -48.2 37
2018-10-06 Metta W 2-135.7 1518 1025 82.17% 13.74% 4.10%+2.50 +2.8 56
2018-10-06 @ Riga FC L 1-235.7 1025 1518 4.10% 13.74% 82.17%-2.50 -2.8 13
2018-10-07 FK RFS L 0-424.7 997 1329 9.65% 14.49% 75.86%-1.74 -24.5 18
2018-10-07 @ Jelgava W 4-024.7 1329 997 75.86% 14.49% 9.65%+1.74 +24.5 49
2018-10-07 Valmiera Glass ViA W 4-023.0 1300 835 81.33% 13.89% 4.78%+2.35 +12.3 40
2018-10-07 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-423.0 835 1300 4.78% 13.89% 81.33%-2.35 -12.3 5
2018-10-07 Ventspils L 0-141.6 1357 1478 26.59% 15.06% 58.35%-0.65 -17.7 42
2018-10-07 @ Liepaja W 1-041.6 1478 1357 58.35% 15.06% 26.59%+0.65 +17.7 52
2018-10-19 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-023.6 1353 823 83.13% 13.53% 3.35%+2.69 +6.6 52
2018-10-19 @ FK RFS L 0-323.6 823 1353 3.35% 13.53% 83.13%-2.69 -6.6 5
2018-10-20 Jelgava W 2-026.5 1521 973 83.55% 13.42% 3.03%+2.79 +4.1 59
2018-10-20 @ Riga FC L 0-226.5 973 1521 3.03% 13.42% 83.55%-2.79 -4.1 18
2018-10-20 Metta L 0-151.6 1339 1023 75.04% 14.54% 10.42%+1.60 -45.7 42
2018-10-20 @ Liepaja W 1-051.6 1023 1339 10.42% 14.54% 75.04%-1.60 +45.7 16
2018-10-20 Spartaks Jurmala D 1-161.1 1496 1312 65.00% 14.94% 20.05%+0.91 -6.6 53
2018-10-20 @ Ventspils D 1-161.1 1312 1496 20.05% 14.94% 65.00%-0.91 +6.6 41
2018-10-28 FK RFS L 0-434.5 1318 1360 36.62% 15.14% 48.24%-0.24 -83.7 41
2018-10-28 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 4-034.5 1360 1318 48.24% 15.14% 36.62%+0.24 +83.7 55
2018-10-28 Liepaja L 0-228.6 968 1294 9.98% 14.51% 75.51%-1.70 -13.4 18
2018-10-28 @ Jelgava W 2-028.6 1294 968 75.51% 14.51% 9.98%+1.70 +13.3 45
2018-10-28 Metta L 0-229.9 816 1068 14.45% 14.76% 70.78%-1.33 -19.0 5
2018-10-28 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-029.9 1068 816 70.78% 14.76% 14.45%+1.33 +19.0 19
2018-10-28 Ventspils D 0-063.4 1525 1489 47.53% 15.14% 37.33%+0.15 -1.6 60
2018-10-28 @ Riga FC D 0-063.4 1489 1525 37.33% 15.14% 47.53%-0.15 +1.6 54
2018-11-04 Jelgava L 1-252.2 1087 955 59.65% 15.04% 25.31%+0.65 -34.1 19
2018-11-04 @ Metta W 2-152.2 955 1087 25.31% 15.04% 59.65%-0.65 +34.1 21
2018-11-04 Riga FC L 0-225.3 797 1523 1.14% 12.29% 86.57%-3.76 -1.5 5
2018-11-04 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-025.3 1523 797 86.57% 12.29% 1.14%+3.76 +1.5 63
2018-11-04 Spartaks Jurmala W 1-039.5 1307 1235 52.38% 15.12% 32.50%+0.34 +21.1 48
2018-11-04 @ Liepaja L 0-139.5 1235 1307 32.50% 15.12% 52.38%-0.34 -21.1 41
2018-11-04 Ventspils L 1-252.6 1444 1491 35.84% 15.14% 49.02%-0.27 -21.7 55
2018-11-04 @ FK RFS W 2-152.6 1491 1444 49.02% 15.14% 35.84%+0.27 +21.7 57
2018-11-10 Jelgava W 1-048.8 796 989 19.18% 14.92% 65.90%-1.03 +40.0 8
2018-11-10 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-148.8 989 796 65.90% 14.92% 19.18%+1.03 -40.0 21
2018-11-10 Liepaja L 0-148.3 1422 1328 55.10% 15.10% 29.81%+0.45 -33.5 55
2018-11-10 @ FK RFS W 1-048.3 1328 1422 29.81% 15.10% 55.10%-0.45 +33.5 51
2018-11-10 Metta W 4-129.7 1512 1053 81.17% 13.91% 4.92%+2.33 +8.1 60
2018-11-10 @ Ventspils L 1-429.7 1053 1512 4.92% 13.91% 81.17%-2.33 -8.2 19
2018-11-10 Spartaks Jurmala D 4-471.0 1525 1214 74.72% 14.56% 10.71%+1.57 -5.3 64
2018-11-10 @ Riga FC D 4-471.0 1214 1525 10.71% 14.56% 74.72%-1.57 +5.3 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-10-03 2.84% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 787 2 Spartaks Jurmala 1348 1
2 2018-08-18 7.90% Metta 947 1 @ Liepaja 1317 0
3 2018-10-20 10.42% Metta 1023 1 @ Liepaja 1339 0
4 2018-11-10 19.18% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 796 1 Jelgava 989 0
5 2018-08-24 23.77% Spartaks Jurmala 1329 1 @ FK RFS 1475 0
6 2018-11-04 25.31% Jelgava 955 2 @ Metta 1087 1
7 2018-07-30 25.97% @ Riga FC 1378 1 FK RFS 1504 0
8 2018-04-28 28.13% Spartaks Jurmala 1278 2 @ FK RFS 1386 0
9 2018-09-15 28.65% @ Liepaja 1280 1 FK RFS 1383 0
10 2018-11-10 29.81% Liepaja 1328 1 @ FK RFS 1422 0
11 2018-06-21 29.87% @ Riga FC 1312 1 Ventspils 1405 0
12 2018-06-15 31.17% Spartaks Jurmala 1353 2 @ Ventspils 1436 1
13 2018-05-12 32.87% Riga FC 1275 1 @ Spartaks Jurmala 1345 0
14 2018-05-11 34.61% FK RFS 1324 5 @ Liepaja 1380 3
15 2018-09-01 37.28% @ Ventspils 1402 2 FK RFS 1438 0
16 2018-10-03 38.29% Liepaja 1328 1 @ FK RFS 1357 0
17 2018-04-01 38.80% @ Jelgava 1233 1 Spartaks Jurmala 1258 0
18 2018-09-01 40.36% @ Metta 1010 3 Jelgava 1025 0
19 2018-03-31 40.79% @ Liepaja 1250 1 Riga FC 1261 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-10-28 83.73 FK RFS 4 1360 48.24% @ Spartaks Jurmala 0 1318 36.62% 15.14%
2 2018-09-01 75.72 @ Metta 3 1010 40.36% Jelgava 0 1025 44.49% 15.15%
3 2018-04-28 65.08 Spartaks Jurmala 2 1278 28.13% @ FK RFS 0 1386 56.79% 15.08%
4 2018-04-08 60.76 @ Liepaja 4 1277 59.51% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1146 25.44% 15.05%
5 2018-04-14 60.59 @ FK RFS 3 1277 50.56% Jelgava 0 1219 34.31% 15.13%
6 2018-09-01 55.30 @ Ventspils 2 1402 37.28% FK RFS 0 1438 47.57% 15.14%
7 2018-05-26 54.95 Ventspils 4 1381 47.53% @ Liepaja 1 1345 37.33% 15.14%
8 2018-04-07 50.70 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1230 56.90% Metta 0 1121 28.02% 15.08%
9 2018-05-11 48.82 @ Jelgava 5 1115 60.54% Valmiera Glass ViA 1 975 24.43% 15.03%
10 2018-04-22 48.22 FK RFS 6 1338 72.17% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1067 13.12% 14.70%
11 2018-10-03 48.15 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 2 787 2.84% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1348 83.81% 13.35%
12 2018-08-18 47.46 Metta 1 947 7.90% @ Liepaja 0 1317 77.77% 14.33%
13 2018-10-20 45.71 Metta 1 1023 10.42% @ Liepaja 0 1339 75.04% 14.54%
14 2018-06-22 44.41 FK RFS 2 1424 47.97% @ Spartaks Jurmala 0 1384 36.88% 15.14%
15 2018-05-04 44.10 @ Riga FC 6 1231 67.61% Valmiera Glass ViA 1 1019 17.52% 14.87%
16 2018-09-15 42.75 Jelgava 4 949 56.91% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 841 28.01% 15.08%
17 2018-05-11 42.51 FK RFS 5 1324 34.61% @ Liepaja 3 1380 50.25% 15.13%
18 2018-04-06 42.19 Ventspils 2 1316 50.11% @ Jelgava 0 1261 34.76% 15.13%
19 2018-11-10 39.96 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 796 19.18% Jelgava 0 989 65.90% 14.92%
20 2018-08-24 37.12 Spartaks Jurmala 1 1329 23.77% @ FK RFS 0 1475 61.21% 15.02%
21 2018-04-01 35.82 @ FK RFS 3 1218 50.89% Metta 1 1157 33.98% 15.13%
22 2018-07-30 35.80 @ Riga FC 1 1378 25.97% FK RFS 0 1504 58.98% 15.05%
23 2018-09-15 34.21 @ Liepaja 1 1280 28.65% FK RFS 0 1383 56.27% 15.09%
24 2018-11-04 34.12 Jelgava 2 955 25.31% @ Metta 1 1087 59.65% 15.04%
25 2018-11-10 33.54 Liepaja 1 1328 29.81% @ FK RFS 0 1422 55.10% 15.10%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-11-10 71.0 @ Riga FC 4 1525 74.72% Spartaks Jurmala 4 1214 10.71% 14.56%
2 2018-05-04 64.9 @ Spartaks Jurmala 2 1344 37.13% Liepaja 2 1381 47.73% 15.14%
3 2018-05-16 63.9 @ Riga FC 2 1307 38.10% Liepaja 2 1338 46.75% 15.15%
4 2018-09-01 63.9 @ Spartaks Jurmala 2 1366 54.50% Liepaja 2 1277 30.40% 15.10%
5 2018-10-28 63.4 @ Riga FC 0 1525 47.53% Ventspils 0 1489 37.33% 15.14%
6 2018-05-12 63.1 @ Metta 2 1033 8.36% Ventspils 2 1393 77.26% 14.38%
7 2018-04-28 62.6 @ Metta 2 1030 44.14% Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1018 40.71% 15.15%
8 2018-10-20 61.1 @ Ventspils 1 1496 65.00% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1312 20.05% 14.94%
9 2018-05-05 59.4 @ Ventspils 1 1395 52.66% FK RFS 1 1321 32.23% 15.12%
10 2018-04-15 59.1 @ Ventspils 1 1358 45.29% Liepaja 1 1338 39.56% 15.15%
11 2018-10-03 58.9 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 2 787 2.84% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1348 83.81% 13.35%
12 2018-06-30 58.5 @ Liepaja 1 1332 45.09% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1314 39.76% 15.15%
13 2018-05-06 57.3 @ Jelgava 1 1118 54.42% Metta 1 1030 30.48% 15.10%
14 2018-06-22 57.2 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 891 28.61% Metta 1 995 56.31% 15.09%
15 2018-09-23 57.2 @ Liepaja 0 1314 18.93% Riga FC 0 1510 66.15% 14.91%
16 2018-05-11 53.8 FK RFS 5 1324 34.61% @ Liepaja 3 1380 50.25% 15.13%
17 2018-06-15 53.8 Spartaks Jurmala 2 1353 31.17% @ Ventspils 1 1436 53.72% 15.11%
18 2018-05-21 53.6 @ Ventspils 0 1390 70.07% Jelgava 0 1148 15.14% 14.79%
19 2018-09-23 53.2 @ Jelgava 0 992 9.13% Spartaks Jurmala 0 1334 76.42% 14.45%
20 2018-07-30 52.6 @ Riga FC 1 1378 25.97% FK RFS 0 1504 58.98% 15.05%
21 2018-11-04 52.6 Ventspils 2 1491 49.02% @ FK RFS 1 1444 35.84% 15.14%
22 2018-08-18 52.3 Metta 1 947 7.90% @ Liepaja 0 1317 77.77% 14.33%
23 2018-11-04 52.2 Jelgava 2 955 25.31% @ Metta 1 1087 59.65% 15.04%
24 2018-10-20 51.6 Metta 1 1023 10.42% @ Liepaja 0 1339 75.04% 14.54%
25 2018-08-24 51.2 Spartaks Jurmala 1 1329 23.77% @ FK RFS 0 1475 61.21% 15.02%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-06-16 22.6 @ FK RFS 4 1414 82.72% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 900 3.66% 13.62%
2 2018-09-01 23.0 @ Riga FC 3 1477 85.18% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 844 1.91% 12.91%
3 2018-10-07 23.0 @ Spartaks Jurmala 4 1300 81.33% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 835 4.78% 13.89%
4 2018-09-29 23.6 Liepaja 3 1322 83.07% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 794 3.39% 13.54%
5 2018-10-19 23.6 @ FK RFS 3 1353 83.13% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 823 3.35% 13.53%
6 2018-05-26 24.5 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1342 80.21% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 912 5.73% 14.05%
7 2018-09-23 24.6 Ventspils 6 1468 85.77% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 798 1.56% 12.67%
8 2018-10-07 24.7 FK RFS 4 1329 75.86% @ Jelgava 0 997 9.65% 14.49%
9 2018-11-04 25.3 Riga FC 2 1523 86.57% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 797 1.14% 12.29%
10 2018-08-18 25.7 Riga FC 3 1420 77.16% @ Jelgava 0 1063 8.45% 14.38%
11 2018-07-22 26.5 FK RFS 2 1500 83.29% @ Metta 0 963 3.22% 13.49%
12 2018-10-20 26.5 @ Riga FC 2 1521 83.55% Jelgava 0 973 3.03% 13.42%
13 2018-04-22 26.6 FK RFS 6 1338 72.17% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1067 13.12% 14.70%
14 2018-04-23 26.7 Liepaja 3 1339 73.09% @ Metta 0 1054 12.25% 14.66%
15 2018-06-30 26.7 Riga FC 2 1372 81.70% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 895 4.47% 13.82%
16 2018-08-12 26.9 Riga FC 2 1413 81.19% @ Metta 0 954 4.90% 13.91%
17 2018-09-24 27.0 @ FK RFS 3 1349 72.30% Metta 0 1076 13.01% 14.70%
18 2018-09-28 27.0 Spartaks Jurmala 3 1323 72.22% @ Metta 0 1051 13.08% 14.70%
19 2018-09-29 27.1 @ Ventspils 2 1472 81.45% Jelgava 0 1003 4.68% 13.87%
20 2018-05-20 27.3 Liepaja 2 1337 79.71% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 920 6.17% 14.12%
21 2018-07-29 27.3 Ventspils 3 1357 71.59% @ Jelgava 0 1094 13.68% 14.73%
22 2018-09-15 28.4 Ventspils 2 1457 77.81% @ Metta 0 1086 7.87% 14.33%
23 2018-10-28 28.6 Liepaja 2 1294 75.51% @ Jelgava 0 968 9.98% 14.51%
24 2018-07-29 28.8 @ Liepaja 6 1332 81.22% Valmiera Glass ViA 2 871 4.88% 13.90%
25 2018-07-22 28.9 @ Ventspils 4 1349 81.52% Valmiera Glass ViA 1 879 4.62% 13.85%