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2019 Virsliga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Riga FC

66 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valmiera Glass ViA

16.19 points above expected

46 points · 29.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ventspils

12.82 points below expected

47 points · 59.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Riga FC 32 20 6 6 66 59 21 +38 66.10 -0.10
2 FK RFS 32 17 8 7 59 55 32 +23 59.30 -0.30
3 Ventspils 32 12 11 9 47 47 43 +4 59.82 -12.82
4 Valmiera Glass ViA 32 12 10 10 46 37 34 +3 29.81 +16.19
5 Spartaks Jurmala 32 13 5 14 44 49 64 -15 42.01 +1.99
6 Liepaja 32 11 6 15 39 41 43 -2 51.05 -12.05
7 Jelgava 32 9 11 12 38 34 37 -3 29.32 +8.68
8 Daugavpils 32 8 7 17 31 27 50 -23 30.08 +0.92
9 Metta 32 6 8 18 26 35 60 -25 30.42 -4.42

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valmiera Glass ViA 46 29.81 +16.19
2 Jelgava 38 29.32 +8.68
3 Spartaks Jurmala 44 42.01 +1.99
4 Daugavpils 31 30.08 +0.92
5 Riga FC 66 66.10 -0.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ventspils 47 59.82 -12.82
2 Liepaja 39 51.05 -12.05
3 Metta 26 30.42 -4.42
4 FK RFS 59 59.30 -0.30
5 Riga FC 66 66.10 -0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK RFS 7 Mar 10 – Apr 20 1 in 75
2 Spartaks Jurmala 5 May 12 – Jun 16 1 in 68
3 Jelgava 2 Jun 21 – Jun 26 1 in 57
4 Valmiera Glass ViA 2 Mar 17 – Mar 31 1 in 49
5 Daugavpils 2 Apr 19 – Apr 23 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepaja 4 Aug 4 – Aug 24 1 in 167
2 Jelgava 4 May 17 – Jun 15 1 in 24
3 FK RFS 2 Jun 25 – Jun 29 1 in 16
4 Metta 5 Mar 9 – Apr 9 1 in 15
5 Riga FC 1 Mar 31 – Mar 31 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jelgava 5 Apr 23 – May 12 1 in 89
2 Spartaks Jurmala 7 May 4 – Jun 16 1 in 45
3 Ventspils 11 Jun 25 – Sep 22 1 in 22
4 FK RFS 8 Aug 30 – Nov 3 1 in 11
5 Liepaja 5 Jun 20 – Jul 28 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK RFS 6 Apr 24 – May 22 1 in 208
2 Ventspils 5 Apr 28 – May 18 1 in 160
3 Riga FC 4 Oct 19 – Nov 3 1 in 35
4 Liepaja 6 Apr 14 – May 12 1 in 23
5 Metta 8 Jun 26 – Aug 25 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Riga FC 1484 66 -14 6 10.3 -4.3
FK RFS 1405 59 +37 13 9.1 +3.9
Ventspils 1343 47 -45 4 8.3 -4.3
Valmiera Glass ViA 1210 46 +30 8 6.3 +1.7
Spartaks Jurmala 1190 44 -46 4 7.1 -3.1
Liepaja 1274 39 -6 7 7.5 -0.5
Jelgava 1187 38 +56 9 6.0 +3.0
Daugavpils 1095 31 +0 5 4.0 +1.0
Metta 1096 26 -44 2 4.4 -2.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DAU FR JEL LIE MET RIG SJ VGV VEN
Daugavpils —
0-0-4
2.35
0-2-2
5.40
4-0-0
3.09
2-1-1
5.12
0-0-4
2.17
1-0-3
3.99
1-2-1
5.74
0-2-2
2.48
FK RFS
4-0-0
8.79
 —
2-2-0
8.65
1-2-1
6.43
2-2-0
8.50
1-1-2
4.45
2-1-1
7.34
3-0-1
8.57
2-0-2
5.56
Jelgava
2-2-0
5.55
0-2-2
2.47
 —
0-1-3
3.18
2-0-2
5.29
1-2-1
1.89
3-0-1
3.84
0-2-2
5.31
1-2-1
2.37
Liepaja
0-0-4
7.96
1-2-1
4.53
3-1-0
7.85
 —
4-0-0
7.70
0-1-3
3.13
0-1-3
6.65
1-0-3
7.83
2-1-1
3.97
Metta
1-1-2
5.83
0-2-2
2.60
2-0-2
5.65
0-0-4
3.32
 —
0-0-4
2.11
1-2-1
4.01
1-2-1
5.29
1-1-2
2.51
Riga FC
4-0-0
9.01
2-1-1
6.51
1-2-1
9.34
3-1-0
7.90
4-0-0
9.07
 —
4-0-0
8.43
1-1-2
9.39
1-1-2
6.63
Spartaks Jurmala
3-0-1
6.99
1-1-2
3.66
1-0-3
7.16
3-1-0
4.32
1-2-1
6.96
0-0-4
2.66
 —
3-0-1
6.61
1-1-2
3.39
Valmiera Glass ViA
1-2-1
5.21
1-0-3
2.54
2-2-0
5.63
3-0-1
3.20
1-2-1
5.69
2-1-1
1.85
1-0-3
4.36
 —
1-3-0
2.45
Ventspils
2-2-0
8.64
2-0-2
5.39
1-2-1
8.77
1-1-2
7.01
2-1-1
8.60
2-1-1
4.33
2-1-1
7.63
0-3-1
8.68
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +10.6
Allowed 0.55 -6.9
Differential 0.90 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.64%10.76%5.21%3.47%1.39%0.69%29.17%
110.76%8.33%9.03%1.39%1.39%0.69%31.60%
25.21%9.03%6.94%2.08%0.69%0.35%24.31%
33.47%1.39%2.08%2.08%0.35%—9.38%
41.39%1.39%0.69%0.35%——3.82%
5+0.69%0.69%0.35%———1.74%
Total29.17%31.60%24.31%9.38%3.82%1.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.79
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%15.62%15.62%12.50%3.12%—50.00%
115.62%9.38%————25.00%
2—3.12%9.38%6.25%——18.75%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%28.12%18.75%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 1.56 -0.72
SD 1.05 1.11 1.59
CV 1.25 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%6.25%3.12%——25.00%
19.38%9.38%6.25%———25.00%
212.50%9.38%3.12%———25.00%
3—6.25%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total34.38%37.50%21.88%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.00 +0.72
SD 1.59 0.92 1.85
CV 0.93 0.92 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%3.12%3.12%——31.25%
19.38%12.50%15.62%6.25%——43.75%
23.12%9.38%6.25%———18.75%
33.12%—————3.12%
4———————
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total31.25%31.25%28.12%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.16 -0.09
SD 1.08 0.99 1.35
CV 1.01 0.85 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%21.88%3.12%———31.25%
19.38%3.12%12.50%———25.00%
2—15.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%—31.25%
3—3.12%3.12%3.12%——9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%43.75%25.00%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.34 -0.06
SD 1.11 1.00 1.27
CV 0.87 0.75 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%31.25%
13.12%6.25%21.88%—3.12%3.12%37.50%
23.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
33.12%——6.25%——9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.62%28.12%31.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.88 -0.78
SD 0.96 1.45 1.77
CV 0.88 0.78 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%————21.88%
115.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
29.38%12.50%3.12%———25.00%
33.12%—————3.12%
49.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total50.00%37.50%9.38%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 0.66 +1.19
SD 1.63 0.79 1.84
CV 0.88 1.20 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%—6.25%3.12%3.12%18.75%
112.50%3.12%9.38%—6.25%3.12%34.38%
26.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%28.12%
39.38%—3.12%———12.50%
4——3.12%3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total31.25%9.38%25.00%12.50%12.50%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 2.00 -0.47
SD 1.14 1.83 2.34
CV 0.74 0.92 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%9.38%3.12%——37.50%
115.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
26.25%3.12%9.38%———18.75%
33.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total37.50%28.12%25.00%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.06 +0.09
SD 1.17 1.01 1.47
CV 1.01 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%6.25%—3.12%—15.62%
16.25%18.75%9.38%—3.12%—37.50%
26.25%15.62%9.38%———31.25%
39.38%——3.12%3.12%—15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%37.50%25.00%3.12%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.34 +0.12
SD 0.95 1.18 1.60
CV 0.65 0.88 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Riga FC 1484 66 66.10 -0.10 53.0% 51 56 61 66 71 78 82
FK RFS 1405 59 59.30 -0.30 50.0% 46 49 54 59 64 70 75
Ventspils 1343 47 59.82 -12.82 4.0% 43 48 56 60 64 70 75
Liepaja 1274 39 51.05 -12.05 5.0% 35 39 46 51 56 63 68
Valmiera Glass ViA 1210 46 29.81 +16.19 99.0% 19 21 25 30 34 39 47
Spartaks Jurmala 1190 44 42.01 +1.99 65.0% 21 29 39 42 46 53 63
Jelgava 1187 38 29.32 +8.68 96.0% 16 21 26 29 33 37 41
Metta 1096 26 30.42 -4.42 27.0% 16 20 26 30 35 42 45
Daugavpils 1095 31 30.08 +0.92 61.0% 18 21 26 30 33 39 48

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Strong Edge
43.06%25.00%31.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
302 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.13+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
64%
Riga FC, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.12 * Some Luck: 5.12 to 7.67 * Lucky: 7.67 to 10.23 * Wild Swing: 10.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.76 * Close: 0.76 to 1.14 * Off: 1.14 to 1.52 * Way Off: 1.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.63 points
Lucky
06.4016
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.56
Way Off
00.952
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Valmiera Glass ViA
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
Ventspils
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 134.42
1.70
Coin-Flip Parity
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
71%
Even
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Even
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.01
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Weak Carryover
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.55
Overconfident
0.4213641.001.57864
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.114
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Riga FC64.00%21.00%13.00%2.00%—————
FK RFS16.00%33.00%33.00%16.00%2.00%————
Ventspils18.00%34.00%35.00%12.00%1.00%————
Valmiera Glass ViA————8.00%22.00%25.00%22.00%23.00%
Spartaks Jurmala——3.00%15.00%57.00%16.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%
Liepaja2.00%12.00%16.00%54.00%14.00%2.00%———
Jelgava————4.00%18.00%22.00%31.00%25.00%
Daugavpils————4.00%21.00%26.00%22.00%27.00%
Metta———1.00%10.00%21.00%23.00%22.00%23.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Daugavpils 73.00% 27.00%
FK RFS 100% —
Jelgava 75.00% 25.00%
Liepaja 100% —
Metta 77.00% 23.00%
Riga FC 100% —
Spartaks Jurmala 98.00% 2.00%
Valmiera Glass ViA 77.00% 23.00%
Ventspils 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-03-09 Metta W 1-040.5 1154 1170 39.94% 26.46% 33.59%+0.07 +9.6 3
2019-03-09 @ Daugavpils L 0-140.5 1170 1154 33.59% 26.46% 39.94%-0.07 -9.6 0
2019-03-09 Riga FC L 0-132.7 1113 1418 11.57% 21.24% 67.19%-0.88 -3.7 0
2019-03-09 @ Jelgava W 1-032.7 1418 1113 67.19% 21.24% 11.57%+0.88 +3.7 3
2019-03-10 Liepaja W 2-037.3 1352 1336 44.45% 26.25% 29.31%+0.18 +16.3 3
2019-03-10 @ FK RFS L 0-237.3 1336 1352 29.31% 26.25% 44.45%-0.18 -16.3 0
2019-03-10 Spartaks Jurmala W 2-141.1 1420 1257 61.35% 23.29% 15.37%+0.67 +4.6 3
2019-03-10 @ Ventspils L 1-241.1 1257 1420 15.37% 23.29% 61.35%-0.67 -4.6 0
2019-03-15 Riga FC L 1-239.7 1160 1421 14.04% 22.67% 63.29%-0.74 -4.2 0
2019-03-15 @ Metta W 2-139.7 1421 1160 63.29% 22.67% 14.04%+0.74 +4.2 6
2019-03-16 FK RFS L 2-349.7 1253 1369 26.67% 26.00% 47.33%-0.26 -7.2 0
2019-03-16 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 3-249.7 1369 1253 47.33% 26.00% 26.67%+0.26 +7.2 6
2019-03-16 Ventspils W 2-155.1 1109 1425 11.01% 20.86% 68.13%-0.92 +16.1 3
2019-03-16 @ Jelgava L 1-255.1 1425 1109 68.13% 20.86% 11.01%+0.92 -16.1 3
2019-03-17 Daugavpils W 2-040.3 1065 1163 28.83% 26.21% 44.96%-0.20 +22.7 3
2019-03-17 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-240.3 1163 1065 44.96% 26.21% 28.83%+0.20 -22.7 3
2019-03-30 Jelgava W 2-137.6 1376 1125 69.14% 20.43% 10.43%+0.96 +3.1 9
2019-03-30 @ FK RFS L 1-237.6 1125 1376 10.43% 20.43% 69.14%-0.96 -3.1 3
2019-03-30 Spartaks Jurmala L 0-146.2 1320 1245 51.72% 25.44% 22.84%+0.37 -13.5 0
2019-03-30 @ Liepaja W 1-046.2 1245 1320 22.84% 25.44% 51.72%-0.37 +13.5 3
2019-03-31 Metta W 2-028.8 1409 1156 69.32% 20.35% 10.33%+0.97 +6.1 6
2019-03-31 @ Ventspils L 0-228.8 1156 1409 10.33% 20.35% 69.32%-0.97 -6.1 0
2019-03-31 Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-150.7 1425 1088 75.63% 17.28% 7.09%+1.25 -18.5 6
2019-03-31 @ Riga FC W 1-050.7 1088 1425 7.09% 17.28% 75.63%-1.25 +18.5 6
2019-04-05 FK RFS L 1-240.4 1150 1379 16.18% 23.62% 60.20%-0.63 -4.9 0
2019-04-05 @ Metta W 2-140.4 1379 1150 60.20% 23.62% 16.18%+0.63 +4.9 12
2019-04-05 Liepaja L 1-241.5 1122 1306 19.80% 24.78% 55.42%-0.48 -5.9 3
2019-04-05 @ Jelgava W 2-141.5 1306 1122 55.42% 24.78% 19.80%+0.48 +5.9 3
2019-04-06 Riga FC L 0-133.8 1140 1407 13.70% 22.50% 63.79%-0.75 -4.4 3
2019-04-06 @ Daugavpils W 1-033.8 1407 1140 63.79% 22.50% 13.70%+0.75 +4.4 9
2019-04-06 Ventspils D 1-154.6 1106 1415 11.37% 21.11% 67.52%-0.89 +3.5 7
2019-04-06 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 1-154.6 1415 1106 67.52% 21.11% 11.37%+0.89 -3.5 7
2019-04-09 Jelgava L 1-253.0 1259 1116 59.29% 23.87% 16.84%+0.60 -14.4 3
2019-04-09 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 2-153.0 1116 1259 16.84% 23.87% 59.29%-0.60 +14.4 6
2019-04-09 Metta W 2-139.7 1312 1145 61.70% 23.18% 15.12%+0.68 +4.6 6
2019-04-09 @ Liepaja L 1-239.7 1145 1312 15.12% 23.18% 61.70%-0.68 -4.5 0
2019-04-10 Daugavpils D 1-155.2 1412 1136 71.10% 19.55% 9.35%+1.04 -3.8 8
2019-04-10 @ Ventspils D 1-155.2 1136 1412 9.35% 19.55% 71.10%-1.04 +3.8 4
2019-04-10 FK RFS L 0-230.0 1110 1384 13.25% 22.26% 64.49%-0.78 -8.0 7
2019-04-10 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-030.0 1384 1110 64.49% 22.26% 13.25%+0.78 +8.0 15
2019-04-14 Liepaja W 1-047.4 1102 1316 17.27% 24.02% 58.72%-0.58 +15.1 10
2019-04-14 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-147.4 1316 1102 58.72% 24.02% 17.27%+0.58 -15.1 6
2019-04-14 Spartaks Jurmala W 3-038.7 1140 1245 28.08% 26.14% 45.77%-0.22 +33.4 3
2019-04-14 @ Metta L 0-338.7 1245 1140 45.77% 26.14% 28.08%+0.22 -33.4 3
2019-04-14 Ventspils W 2-040.2 1411 1408 42.70% 26.35% 30.95%+0.14 +17.1 12
2019-04-14 @ Riga FC L 0-240.2 1408 1411 30.95% 26.35% 42.70%-0.14 -17.0 8
2019-04-15 FK RFS L 0-134.2 1140 1392 14.62% 22.95% 62.42%-0.71 -4.7 4
2019-04-15 @ Daugavpils W 1-034.2 1392 1140 62.42% 22.95% 14.62%+0.71 +4.7 18
2019-04-19 Daugavpils L 2-358.6 1301 1135 61.62% 23.20% 15.17%+0.68 -14.1 6
2019-04-19 @ Liepaja W 3-258.6 1135 1301 15.17% 23.20% 61.62%-0.68 +14.1 7
2019-04-19 Metta L 1-246.7 1131 1174 36.11% 26.51% 37.39%-0.01 -9.6 6
2019-04-19 @ Jelgava W 2-146.7 1174 1131 37.39% 26.51% 36.11%+0.01 +9.6 6
2019-04-19 Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-032.8 1211 1117 54.07% 25.04% 20.89%+0.44 +12.3 6
2019-04-19 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-232.8 1117 1211 20.89% 25.04% 54.07%-0.44 -12.3 10
2019-04-20 Riga FC W 3-147.5 1396 1428 37.73% 26.50% 35.77%+0.02 +16.5 21
2019-04-20 @ FK RFS L 1-347.5 1428 1396 35.77% 26.50% 37.73%-0.02 -16.5 12
2019-04-23 Jelgava D 0-047.9 1105 1121 39.92% 26.47% 33.62%+0.07 -0.4 11
2019-04-23 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 0-047.9 1121 1105 33.62% 26.47% 39.92%-0.07 +0.4 7
2019-04-23 Spartaks Jurmala W 4-142.5 1149 1223 31.86% 26.40% 41.74%-0.12 +26.2 10
2019-04-23 @ Daugavpils L 1-442.5 1223 1149 41.74% 26.40% 31.86%+0.12 -26.2 6
2019-04-24 FK RFS W 2-040.9 1391 1413 39.10% 26.48% 34.41%+0.05 +18.5 11
2019-04-24 @ Ventspils L 0-240.9 1413 1391 34.41% 26.48% 39.10%-0.05 -18.5 21
2019-04-24 Liepaja W 1-037.0 1412 1287 57.42% 24.34% 18.24%+0.54 +5.8 15
2019-04-24 @ Riga FC L 0-137.0 1287 1412 18.24% 24.34% 57.42%-0.54 -5.8 6
2019-04-27 Daugavpils W 1-042.1 1121 1175 34.58% 26.49% 38.93%-0.05 +10.7 10
2019-04-27 @ Jelgava L 0-142.1 1175 1121 38.93% 26.49% 34.58%+0.05 -10.7 10
2019-04-27 Valmiera Glass ViA L 1-445.3 1183 1104 52.33% 25.35% 22.33%+0.39 -31.5 6
2019-04-27 @ Metta W 4-145.3 1104 1183 22.33% 25.35% 52.33%-0.39 +31.5 14
2019-04-28 Liepaja D 1-154.9 1409 1281 57.74% 24.26% 18.00%+0.55 -2.4 12
2019-04-28 @ Ventspils D 1-154.9 1281 1409 18.00% 24.26% 57.74%-0.55 +2.4 7
2019-04-28 Riga FC L 0-429.9 1197 1418 16.82% 23.86% 59.32%-0.60 -19.1 6
2019-04-28 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 4-029.9 1418 1197 59.32% 23.86% 16.82%+0.60 +19.1 18
2019-05-03 Daugavpils L 0-142.5 1152 1165 40.42% 26.45% 33.12%+0.09 -11.1 6
2019-05-03 @ Metta W 1-042.5 1165 1152 33.12% 26.45% 40.42%-0.09 +11.0 13
2019-05-03 Jelgava D 1-155.6 1437 1132 73.30% 18.48% 8.21%+1.14 -4.0 19
2019-05-03 @ Riga FC D 1-155.6 1132 1437 8.21% 18.48% 73.30%-1.14 +4.0 11
2019-05-04 FK RFS D 0-049.6 1284 1394 27.31% 26.07% 46.62%-0.24 +1.2 8
2019-05-04 @ Liepaja D 0-049.6 1394 1284 46.62% 26.07% 27.31%+0.24 -1.2 22
2019-05-04 Ventspils W 4-361.4 1178 1407 16.22% 23.63% 60.15%-0.63 +13.4 9
2019-05-04 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 3-461.4 1407 1178 60.15% 23.63% 16.22%+0.63 -13.5 12
2019-05-07 Metta W 2-136.9 1433 1141 72.36% 18.95% 8.69%+1.09 +2.5 22
2019-05-07 @ Riga FC L 1-236.9 1141 1433 8.69% 18.95% 72.36%-1.09 -2.5 6
2019-05-07 Valmiera Glass ViA W 1-038.2 1176 1136 47.52% 25.98% 26.50%+0.26 +8.0 16
2019-05-07 @ Daugavpils L 0-138.2 1136 1176 26.50% 25.98% 47.52%-0.26 -8.0 14
2019-05-08 Jelgava D 1-154.9 1393 1136 69.66% 20.20% 10.14%+0.98 -3.7 13
2019-05-08 @ Ventspils D 1-154.9 1136 1393 10.14% 20.20% 69.66%-0.98 +3.7 12
2019-05-08 Spartaks Jurmala D 0-050.0 1393 1192 64.95% 22.10% 12.96%+0.80 -3.6 23
2019-05-08 @ FK RFS D 0-050.0 1192 1393 12.96% 22.10% 64.95%-0.80 +3.6 10
2019-05-12 FK RFS D 0-049.5 1140 1390 14.76% 23.02% 62.22%-0.70 +3.2 13
2019-05-12 @ Jelgava D 0-049.5 1390 1140 62.22% 23.02% 14.76%+0.70 -3.2 24
2019-05-12 Liepaja W 1-043.8 1195 1285 29.84% 26.28% 43.88%-0.17 +11.8 13
2019-05-12 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-143.8 1285 1195 43.88% 26.28% 29.84%+0.17 -11.8 8
2019-05-12 Ventspils W 2-154.0 1138 1390 14.66% 22.97% 62.37%-0.70 +15.0 9
2019-05-12 @ Metta L 1-254.0 1390 1138 62.37% 22.97% 14.66%+0.70 -15.0 13
2019-05-13 Riga FC W 1-049.6 1128 1435 11.43% 21.15% 67.43%-0.89 +17.0 17
2019-05-13 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-149.6 1435 1128 67.43% 21.15% 11.43%+0.89 -17.0 22
2019-05-17 Jelgava W 1-035.2 1273 1143 58.00% 24.20% 17.81%+0.56 +5.7 11
2019-05-17 @ Liepaja L 0-135.2 1143 1273 17.81% 24.20% 58.00%-0.56 -5.6 13
2019-05-17 Metta D 2-260.4 1386 1153 67.69% 21.04% 11.27%+0.90 -2.6 25
2019-05-17 @ FK RFS D 2-260.4 1153 1386 11.27% 21.04% 67.69%-0.90 +2.6 10
2019-05-18 Riga FC L 0-329.7 1184 1418 15.79% 23.47% 60.74%-0.65 -13.8 16
2019-05-18 @ Daugavpils W 3-029.7 1418 1184 60.74% 23.47% 15.79%+0.65 +13.8 25
2019-05-18 Valmiera Glass ViA D 2-260.3 1375 1145 67.42% 21.15% 11.43%+0.89 -2.6 14
2019-05-18 @ Ventspils D 2-260.3 1145 1375 11.43% 21.15% 67.42%-0.89 +2.6 18
2019-05-21 Liepaja L 1-243.7 1156 1279 25.89% 25.91% 48.20%-0.28 -7.4 10
2019-05-21 @ Metta W 2-143.7 1279 1156 48.20% 25.91% 25.89%+0.28 +7.4 14
2019-05-21 Spartaks Jurmala L 0-334.8 1137 1207 32.48% 26.43% 41.10%-0.10 -25.7 13
2019-05-21 @ Jelgava W 3-034.8 1207 1137 41.10% 26.43% 32.48%+0.10 +25.7 16
2019-05-22 Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-149.6 1384 1147 67.98% 20.92% 11.10%+0.91 -17.1 25
2019-05-22 @ FK RFS W 1-049.6 1147 1384 11.10% 20.92% 67.98%-0.91 +17.1 21
2019-05-22 Ventspils L 0-330.3 1170 1372 18.25% 24.34% 57.41%-0.54 -15.8 16
2019-05-22 @ Daugavpils W 3-030.3 1372 1170 57.41% 24.34% 18.25%+0.54 +15.8 17
2019-05-25 Metta W 1-036.6 1233 1149 52.90% 25.25% 21.85%+0.41 +6.8 19
2019-05-25 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-136.6 1149 1233 21.85% 25.25% 52.90%-0.41 -6.8 10
2019-05-26 Riga FC W 1-045.7 1388 1432 35.97% 26.51% 37.53%-0.02 +10.5 20
2019-05-26 @ Ventspils L 0-145.7 1432 1388 37.53% 26.51% 35.97%+0.02 -10.5 25
2019-05-26 Valmiera Glass ViA W 1-035.5 1286 1164 57.12% 24.41% 18.47%+0.53 +5.8 17
2019-05-26 @ Liepaja L 0-135.5 1164 1286 18.47% 24.41% 57.12%-0.53 -5.8 21
2019-05-27 Daugavpils W 3-243.6 1367 1154 65.92% 21.74% 12.34%+0.83 +3.5 28
2019-05-27 @ FK RFS L 2-343.6 1154 1367 12.34% 21.74% 65.92%-0.83 -3.5 16
2019-05-31 Jelgava W 2-144.1 1142 1112 46.21% 26.11% 27.68%+0.23 +7.8 13
2019-05-31 @ Metta L 1-244.1 1112 1142 27.68% 26.11% 46.21%-0.23 -7.8 13
2019-05-31 Spartaks Jurmala L 1-245.3 1159 1239 30.98% 26.36% 42.67%-0.14 -8.5 21
2019-05-31 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-145.3 1239 1159 42.67% 26.36% 30.98%+0.14 +8.5 22
2019-06-01 FK RFS W 2-037.7 1422 1370 48.95% 25.82% 25.23%+0.30 +14.5 28
2019-06-01 @ Riga FC L 0-237.7 1370 1422 25.23% 25.82% 48.95%-0.30 -14.5 28
2019-06-01 Liepaja W 1-045.5 1151 1292 23.88% 25.62% 50.50%-0.34 +13.2 19
2019-06-01 @ Daugavpils L 0-145.5 1292 1151 50.50% 25.62% 23.88%+0.34 -13.2 17
2019-06-15 Riga FC L 1-244.3 1279 1436 22.27% 25.33% 52.39%-0.39 -6.5 17
2019-06-15 @ Liepaja W 2-144.3 1436 1279 52.39% 25.33% 22.27%+0.39 +6.5 31
2019-06-15 Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-141.1 1104 1150 35.71% 26.50% 37.79%-0.02 -10.1 13
2019-06-15 @ Jelgava W 1-041.1 1150 1104 37.79% 26.50% 35.71%+0.02 +10.1 24
2019-06-15 Ventspils W 4-143.8 1356 1398 36.20% 26.51% 37.29%-0.01 +24.0 31
2019-06-15 @ FK RFS L 1-443.8 1398 1356 37.29% 26.51% 36.20%+0.01 -24.0 20
2019-06-16 Daugavpils W 3-031.3 1248 1164 52.89% 25.25% 21.86%+0.41 +18.6 25
2019-06-16 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-331.3 1164 1248 21.86% 25.25% 52.89%-0.41 -18.6 19
2019-06-20 Ventspils W 4-039.5 1272 1374 28.34% 26.17% 45.50%-0.21 +43.4 20
2019-06-20 @ Liepaja L 0-439.5 1374 1272 45.50% 26.17% 28.34%+0.21 -43.4 20
2019-06-21 Jelgava L 0-241.4 1145 1094 48.95% 25.82% 25.23%+0.30 -24.3 19
2019-06-21 @ Daugavpils W 2-041.4 1094 1145 25.23% 25.82% 48.95%-0.30 +24.3 16
2019-06-21 Metta L 0-240.0 1160 1150 43.63% 26.30% 30.07%+0.16 -22.1 24
2019-06-21 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 2-040.0 1150 1160 30.07% 26.30% 43.63%-0.16 +22.1 16
2019-06-21 Spartaks Jurmala W 6-133.2 1443 1267 62.59% 22.90% 14.51%+0.71 +16.9 34
2019-06-21 @ Riga FC L 1-633.2 1267 1443 14.51% 22.90% 62.59%-0.71 -16.9 25
2019-06-25 Liepaja L 1-252.5 1380 1316 50.51% 25.62% 23.87%+0.34 -12.5 31
2019-06-25 @ FK RFS W 2-152.5 1316 1380 23.87% 25.62% 50.51%-0.34 +12.5 23
2019-06-25 Spartaks Jurmala D 2-259.3 1331 1250 52.57% 25.31% 22.13%+0.40 -1.3 21
2019-06-25 @ Ventspils D 2-259.3 1250 1331 22.13% 25.31% 52.57%-0.40 +1.3 26
2019-06-26 Jelgava L 0-151.0 1460 1118 75.89% 17.14% 6.97%+1.26 -18.5 34
2019-06-26 @ Riga FC W 1-051.0 1118 1460 6.97% 17.14% 75.89%-1.26 +18.5 19
2019-06-26 Metta D 0-047.9 1121 1172 35.05% 26.50% 38.45%-0.04 +0.2 20
2019-06-26 @ Daugavpils D 0-047.9 1172 1121 38.45% 26.50% 35.05%+0.04 -0.2 17
2019-06-29 FK RFS W 1-045.4 1251 1367 26.64% 26.00% 47.36%-0.26 +12.5 29
2019-06-29 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-145.4 1367 1251 47.36% 26.00% 26.64%+0.26 -12.6 31
2019-06-30 Daugavpils D 1-152.6 1138 1121 44.47% 26.24% 29.29%+0.18 -0.8 25
2019-06-30 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 1-152.6 1121 1138 29.29% 26.24% 44.47%-0.18 +0.8 21
2019-06-30 Riga FC L 0-428.5 1171 1441 13.52% 22.40% 64.08%-0.76 -15.4 17
2019-06-30 @ Metta W 4-028.5 1441 1171 64.08% 22.40% 13.52%+0.76 +15.4 37
2019-06-30 Ventspils L 1-241.3 1137 1330 19.01% 24.56% 56.42%-0.51 -5.7 19
2019-06-30 @ Jelgava W 2-141.3 1330 1137 56.42% 24.56% 19.01%+0.51 +5.6 24
2019-07-04 Valmiera Glass ViA D 0-051.3 1457 1137 74.36% 17.94% 7.69%+1.19 -4.6 38
2019-07-04 @ Riga FC D 0-051.3 1137 1457 7.69% 17.94% 74.36%-1.19 +4.6 26
2019-07-05 Spartaks Jurmala D 2-259.3 1328 1264 50.59% 25.61% 23.80%+0.34 -1.1 24
2019-07-05 @ Liepaja D 2-259.3 1264 1328 23.80% 25.61% 50.59%-0.34 +1.2 30
2019-07-06 Jelgava W 2-029.2 1355 1131 66.89% 21.36% 11.75%+0.87 +7.0 34
2019-07-06 @ FK RFS L 0-229.2 1131 1355 11.75% 21.36% 66.89%-0.87 -7.0 19
2019-07-06 Metta W 2-139.4 1335 1156 62.88% 22.81% 14.31%+0.72 +4.3 27
2019-07-06 @ Ventspils L 1-239.4 1156 1335 14.31% 22.81% 62.88%-0.72 -4.3 17
2019-07-20 Riga FC L 0-426.7 1122 1452 10.35% 20.37% 69.27%-0.96 -11.6 21
2019-07-20 @ Daugavpils W 4-026.7 1452 1122 69.27% 20.37% 10.35%+0.96 +11.6 41
2019-07-21 FK RFS D 1-153.7 1152 1362 17.61% 24.14% 58.25%-0.57 +2.4 18
2019-07-21 @ Metta D 1-153.7 1362 1152 58.25% 24.14% 17.61%+0.57 -2.4 35
2019-07-21 Liepaja D 0-048.8 1124 1327 18.17% 24.31% 57.51%-0.54 +2.6 20
2019-07-21 @ Jelgava D 0-048.8 1327 1124 57.51% 24.31% 18.17%+0.54 -2.6 25
2019-07-21 Ventspils D 2-259.2 1142 1340 18.60% 24.44% 56.96%-0.53 +1.7 27
2019-07-21 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 2-259.2 1340 1142 56.96% 24.44% 18.60%+0.53 -1.7 28
2019-07-27 Jelgava L 1-252.9 1265 1127 58.82% 23.99% 17.19%+0.59 -14.2 30
2019-07-27 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 2-152.9 1127 1265 17.19% 23.99% 58.82%-0.59 +14.2 23
2019-07-28 Daugavpils W 3-027.1 1338 1110 67.20% 21.24% 11.56%+0.88 +10.0 31
2019-07-28 @ Ventspils L 0-327.1 1110 1338 11.56% 21.24% 67.20%-0.88 -10.0 21
2019-07-28 Liepaja L 2-347.1 1154 1325 21.02% 25.07% 53.91%-0.44 -5.9 18
2019-07-28 @ Metta W 3-247.1 1325 1154 53.91% 25.07% 21.02%+0.44 +5.9 28
2019-07-28 Valmiera Glass ViA W 1-032.9 1359 1143 66.22% 21.62% 12.16%+0.84 +3.9 38
2019-07-28 @ FK RFS L 0-132.9 1143 1359 12.16% 21.62% 66.22%-0.84 -3.9 27
2019-08-03 Spartaks Jurmala D 1-152.8 1148 1250 28.32% 26.17% 45.51%-0.21 +1.0 19
2019-08-03 @ Metta D 1-152.8 1250 1148 45.51% 26.17% 28.32%+0.21 -1.0 31
2019-08-04 Liepaja W 2-152.5 1140 1330 19.19% 24.61% 56.20%-0.50 +13.7 30
2019-08-04 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 1-252.5 1330 1140 56.20% 24.61% 19.19%+0.50 -13.7 28
2019-08-05 FK RFS L 0-133.6 1100 1363 13.93% 22.62% 63.45%-0.74 -4.4 21
2019-08-05 @ Daugavpils W 1-033.6 1363 1100 63.45% 22.62% 13.93%+0.74 +4.4 41
2019-08-10 Metta W 1-040.1 1141 1149 41.05% 26.43% 32.52%+0.10 +9.4 26
2019-08-10 @ Jelgava L 0-140.1 1149 1141 32.52% 26.43% 41.05%-0.10 -9.4 19
2019-08-10 Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-030.9 1249 1153 54.30% 25.00% 20.70%+0.45 +17.7 34
2019-08-10 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-330.9 1153 1249 20.70% 25.00% 54.30%-0.45 -17.7 30
2019-08-11 Daugavpils L 1-254.5 1317 1096 66.63% 21.47% 11.91%+0.86 -15.9 28
2019-08-11 @ Liepaja W 2-154.5 1096 1317 11.91% 21.47% 66.63%-0.86 +15.8 24
2019-08-11 Riga FC L 1-248.9 1368 1464 29.10% 26.23% 44.67%-0.19 -8.1 41
2019-08-11 @ FK RFS W 2-148.9 1464 1368 44.67% 26.23% 29.10%+0.19 +8.1 44
2019-08-17 Jelgava W 3-142.6 1135 1150 40.15% 26.46% 33.39%+0.08 +15.6 33
2019-08-17 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 1-342.6 1150 1135 33.39% 26.46% 40.15%-0.08 -15.6 26
2019-08-17 Spartaks Jurmala L 2-347.4 1112 1267 22.46% 25.37% 52.17%-0.39 -6.2 24
2019-08-17 @ Daugavpils W 3-247.4 1267 1112 52.17% 25.37% 22.46%+0.39 +6.2 37
2019-08-18 FK RFS W 3-036.8 1348 1360 40.59% 26.44% 32.97%+0.09 +26.0 34
2019-08-18 @ Ventspils L 0-336.8 1360 1348 32.97% 26.44% 40.59%-0.09 -26.0 41
2019-08-18 Liepaja W 1-036.8 1472 1301 62.08% 23.06% 14.86%+0.69 +4.7 47
2019-08-18 @ Riga FC L 0-136.8 1301 1472 14.86% 23.06% 62.08%-0.69 -4.7 28
2019-08-24 Ventspils L 1-246.7 1296 1374 31.39% 26.38% 42.24%-0.13 -8.6 28
2019-08-24 @ Liepaja W 2-146.7 1374 1296 42.24% 26.38% 31.39%+0.13 +8.6 37
2019-08-25 Daugavpils D 2-258.3 1135 1106 46.09% 26.12% 27.79%+0.22 -0.8 27
2019-08-25 @ Jelgava D 2-258.3 1106 1135 27.79% 26.12% 46.09%-0.22 +0.8 25
2019-08-25 Riga FC L 2-443.8 1273 1476 18.19% 24.32% 57.50%-0.54 -8.4 37
2019-08-25 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 4-243.8 1476 1273 57.50% 24.32% 18.19%+0.54 +8.4 50
2019-08-25 Valmiera Glass ViA D 0-048.0 1140 1151 40.65% 26.44% 32.91%+0.09 -0.5 20
2019-08-25 @ Metta D 0-048.0 1151 1140 32.91% 26.44% 40.65%-0.09 +0.5 34
2019-08-30 Daugavpils W 1-038.4 1139 1106 46.61% 26.07% 27.32%+0.24 +8.2 23
2019-08-30 @ Metta L 0-138.4 1106 1139 27.32% 26.07% 46.61%-0.24 -8.2 25
2019-08-30 FK RFS D 3-363.1 1288 1334 35.70% 26.50% 37.80%-0.02 +0.1 29
2019-08-30 @ Liepaja D 3-363.1 1334 1288 37.80% 26.50% 35.70%+0.02 -0.1 42
2019-08-31 Ventspils L 0-139.4 1265 1383 26.52% 25.98% 47.50%-0.26 -8.0 37
2019-08-31 @ Spartaks Jurmala W 1-039.4 1383 1265 47.50% 25.98% 26.52%+0.26 +8.0 40
2019-09-14 Jelgava D 1-154.9 1391 1134 69.62% 20.22% 10.16%+0.98 -3.7 41
2019-09-14 @ Ventspils D 1-154.9 1134 1391 10.16% 20.22% 69.62%-0.98 +3.7 28
2019-09-14 Metta W 5-025.8 1485 1148 75.60% 17.29% 7.11%+1.24 +9.3 53
2019-09-14 @ Riga FC L 0-525.8 1148 1485 7.11% 17.29% 75.60%-1.24 -9.3 23
2019-09-14 Valmiera Glass ViA D 2-258.2 1098 1152 34.67% 26.49% 38.84%-0.05 +0.2 26
2019-09-14 @ Daugavpils D 2-258.2 1152 1098 38.84% 26.49% 34.67%+0.05 -0.2 35
2019-09-15 Spartaks Jurmala W 6-033.4 1334 1257 52.00% 25.40% 22.60%+0.38 +36.6 45
2019-09-15 @ FK RFS L 0-633.4 1257 1334 22.60% 25.40% 52.00%-0.38 -36.6 37
2019-09-18 Ventspils D 0-054.2 1494 1387 55.53% 24.75% 19.71%+0.48 -2.4 54
2019-09-18 @ Riga FC D 0-054.2 1387 1494 19.71% 24.75% 55.53%-0.48 +2.4 42
2019-09-21 FK RFS D 1-153.9 1138 1370 15.93% 23.52% 60.55%-0.64 +2.7 29
2019-09-21 @ Jelgava D 1-153.9 1370 1138 60.55% 23.52% 15.93%+0.64 -2.7 46
2019-09-21 Liepaja W 4-249.0 1220 1288 32.79% 26.44% 40.77%-0.09 +16.3 40
2019-09-21 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 2-449.0 1288 1220 40.77% 26.44% 32.79%+0.09 -16.2 29
2019-09-22 Riga FC L 0-132.6 1151 1492 9.89% 20.00% 70.11%-1.00 -3.1 35
2019-09-22 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 1-032.6 1492 1151 70.11% 20.00% 9.89%+1.00 +3.1 57
2019-09-22 Ventspils D 3-363.6 1138 1389 14.69% 22.98% 62.33%-0.70 +1.8 24
2019-09-22 @ Metta D 3-363.6 1389 1138 62.33% 22.98% 14.69%+0.70 -1.8 43
2019-09-29 Jelgava W 3-137.4 1271 1140 58.09% 24.17% 17.73%+0.56 +9.2 32
2019-09-29 @ Liepaja L 1-337.4 1140 1271 17.73% 24.17% 58.09%-0.56 -9.2 29
2019-09-29 Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-246.2 1387 1148 68.18% 20.84% 10.98%+0.92 -32.3 43
2019-09-29 @ Ventspils W 2-046.2 1148 1387 10.98% 20.84% 68.18%-0.92 +32.3 38
2019-09-30 Daugavpils W 2-026.0 1495 1098 79.43% 15.13% 5.43%+1.44 +2.9 60
2019-09-30 @ Riga FC L 0-226.0 1098 1495 5.43% 15.13% 79.43%-1.44 -2.9 26
2019-09-30 Metta W 6-130.3 1367 1140 67.20% 21.24% 11.56%+0.88 +13.3 49
2019-09-30 @ FK RFS L 1-630.3 1140 1367 11.56% 21.24% 67.20%-0.88 -13.3 24
2019-10-05 FK RFS L 1-338.1 1181 1381 18.41% 24.39% 57.21%-0.53 -9.5 38
2019-10-05 @ Valmiera Glass ViA W 3-138.1 1381 1181 57.21% 24.39% 18.41%+0.53 +9.5 52
2019-10-05 Metta W 2-140.0 1281 1127 60.42% 23.56% 16.02%+0.64 +4.8 35
2019-10-05 @ Liepaja L 1-240.0 1127 1281 16.02% 23.56% 60.42%-0.64 -4.8 24
2019-10-05 Spartaks Jurmala W 5-246.3 1131 1237 27.91% 26.13% 45.97%-0.22 +24.5 32
2019-10-05 @ Jelgava L 2-546.3 1237 1131 45.97% 26.13% 27.91%+0.22 -24.5 40
2019-10-05 Ventspils D 1-153.9 1095 1355 14.12% 22.72% 63.16%-0.73 +3.0 27
2019-10-05 @ Daugavpils D 1-153.9 1355 1095 63.16% 22.72% 14.12%+0.73 -3.0 44
2019-10-19 Daugavpils W 2-027.6 1390 1098 72.36% 18.95% 8.69%+1.09 +5.0 55
2019-10-19 @ FK RFS L 0-227.6 1098 1390 8.69% 18.95% 72.36%-1.09 -5.0 27
2019-10-19 Riga FC W 2-155.7 1352 1498 23.45% 25.55% 51.00%-0.35 +12.6 47
2019-10-19 @ Ventspils L 1-255.7 1498 1352 51.00% 25.55% 23.45%+0.35 -12.6 60
2019-10-20 Metta D 2-258.7 1212 1122 53.61% 25.13% 21.26%+0.43 -1.4 41
2019-10-20 @ Spartaks Jurmala D 2-258.7 1122 1212 21.26% 25.13% 53.61%-0.43 +1.4 25
2019-10-20 Valmiera Glass ViA L 2-357.4 1285 1171 56.29% 24.59% 19.11%+0.51 -13.0 35
2019-10-20 @ Liepaja W 3-257.4 1171 1285 19.11% 24.59% 56.29%-0.51 +13.0 41
2019-10-23 Riga FC D 0-051.0 1156 1485 10.36% 20.38% 69.25%-0.96 +4.1 33
2019-10-23 @ Jelgava D 0-051.0 1485 1156 69.25% 20.38% 10.36%+0.96 -4.1 61
2019-10-27 Liepaja W 1-046.4 1093 1272 20.23% 24.89% 54.88%-0.46 +14.2 30
2019-10-27 @ Daugavpils L 0-146.4 1272 1093 54.88% 24.89% 20.23%+0.46 -14.2 35
2019-10-27 Spartaks Jurmala W 3-035.6 1184 1211 38.48% 26.50% 35.03%+0.04 +27.2 44
2019-10-27 @ Valmiera Glass ViA L 0-335.6 1211 1184 35.03% 26.50% 38.48%-0.04 -27.2 41
2019-10-30 FK RFS D 1-158.5 1481 1395 53.09% 25.22% 21.69%+0.41 -1.8 62
2019-10-30 @ Riga FC D 1-158.5 1395 1481 21.69% 25.22% 53.09%-0.41 +1.8 56
2019-10-30 Jelgava L 0-336.1 1123 1160 37.10% 26.51% 36.40%+0.01 -28.4 25
2019-10-30 @ Metta W 3-036.1 1160 1123 36.40% 26.51% 37.10%-0.01 +28.4 36
2019-11-03 Daugavpils W 2-033.4 1184 1108 51.94% 25.41% 22.65%+0.38 +13.2 44
2019-11-03 @ Spartaks Jurmala L 0-233.4 1108 1184 22.65% 25.41% 51.94%-0.38 -13.2 30
2019-11-03 Riga FC D 2-261.4 1258 1479 16.76% 23.84% 59.40%-0.60 +1.9 36
2019-11-03 @ Liepaja D 2-261.4 1479 1258 59.40% 23.84% 16.76%+0.60 -1.9 63
2019-11-03 Valmiera Glass ViA D 0-048.1 1188 1211 38.95% 26.49% 34.56%+0.05 -0.3 37
2019-11-03 @ Jelgava D 0-048.1 1211 1188 34.56% 26.49% 38.95%-0.05 +0.3 45
2019-11-03 Ventspils W 2-146.8 1397 1365 46.54% 26.08% 27.38%+0.24 +7.7 59
2019-11-03 @ FK RFS L 1-246.8 1365 1397 27.38% 26.08% 46.54%-0.24 -7.7 47
2019-11-09 Jelgava D 2-258.3 1094 1188 29.40% 26.25% 44.35%-0.18 +0.6 31
2019-11-09 @ Daugavpils D 2-258.3 1188 1094 44.35% 26.25% 29.40%+0.18 -0.6 38
2019-11-09 Liepaja L 0-147.2 1357 1260 54.38% 24.98% 20.64%+0.45 -14.1 47
2019-11-09 @ Ventspils W 1-047.2 1260 1357 20.64% 24.98% 54.38%-0.45 +14.1 39
2019-11-09 Metta D 3-362.7 1212 1095 56.56% 24.53% 18.91%+0.51 -1.4 46
2019-11-09 @ Valmiera Glass ViA D 3-362.7 1095 1212 18.91% 24.53% 56.56%-0.51 +1.4 26
2019-11-09 Spartaks Jurmala W 4-132.1 1477 1197 71.50% 19.36% 9.14%+1.06 +6.5 66
2019-11-09 @ Riga FC L 1-432.1 1197 1477 9.14% 19.36% 71.50%-1.06 -6.5 44

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-06-26 6.97% Jelgava 1118 1 @ Riga FC 1460 0
2 2019-03-31 7.09% Valmiera Glass ViA 1088 1 @ Riga FC 1425 0
3 2019-09-29 10.98% Valmiera Glass ViA 1148 2 @ Ventspils 1387 0
4 2019-03-16 11.01% @ Jelgava 1109 2 Ventspils 1425 1
5 2019-05-22 11.10% Valmiera Glass ViA 1147 1 @ FK RFS 1384 0
6 2019-05-13 11.43% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1128 1 Riga FC 1435 0
7 2019-08-11 11.91% Daugavpils 1096 2 @ Liepaja 1317 1
8 2019-05-12 14.66% @ Metta 1138 2 Ventspils 1390 1
9 2019-04-19 15.17% Daugavpils 1135 3 @ Liepaja 1301 2
10 2019-05-04 16.22% @ Spartaks Jurmala 1178 4 Ventspils 1407 3
11 2019-04-09 16.84% Jelgava 1116 2 @ Spartaks Jurmala 1259 1
12 2019-07-27 17.19% Jelgava 1127 2 @ Spartaks Jurmala 1265 1
13 2019-04-14 17.27% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1102 1 Liepaja 1316 0
14 2019-10-20 19.11% Valmiera Glass ViA 1171 3 @ Liepaja 1285 2
15 2019-08-04 19.19% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1140 2 Liepaja 1330 1
16 2019-10-27 20.23% @ Daugavpils 1093 1 Liepaja 1272 0
17 2019-11-09 20.64% Liepaja 1260 1 @ Ventspils 1357 0
18 2019-04-27 22.33% Valmiera Glass ViA 1104 4 @ Metta 1183 1
19 2019-03-30 22.84% Spartaks Jurmala 1245 1 @ Liepaja 1320 0
20 2019-10-19 23.45% @ Ventspils 1352 2 Riga FC 1498 1
21 2019-06-25 23.87% Liepaja 1316 2 @ FK RFS 1380 1
22 2019-06-01 23.88% @ Daugavpils 1151 1 Liepaja 1292 0
23 2019-06-21 25.23% Jelgava 1094 2 @ Daugavpils 1145 0
24 2019-06-29 26.64% @ Spartaks Jurmala 1251 1 FK RFS 1367 0
25 2019-10-05 27.91% @ Jelgava 1131 5 Spartaks Jurmala 1237 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-06-20 43.44 @ Liepaja 4 1272 28.34% Ventspils 0 1374 45.50% 26.17%
2 2019-09-15 36.64 @ FK RFS 6 1334 52.00% Spartaks Jurmala 0 1257 22.60% 25.40%
3 2019-04-14 33.41 @ Metta 3 1140 28.08% Spartaks Jurmala 0 1245 45.77% 26.14%
4 2019-09-29 32.28 Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1148 10.98% @ Ventspils 0 1387 68.18% 20.84%
5 2019-04-27 31.53 Valmiera Glass ViA 4 1104 22.33% @ Metta 1 1183 52.33% 25.35%
6 2019-10-30 28.37 Jelgava 3 1160 36.40% @ Metta 0 1123 37.10% 26.51%
7 2019-10-27 27.19 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 3 1184 38.48% Spartaks Jurmala 0 1211 35.03% 26.50%
8 2019-04-23 26.17 @ Daugavpils 4 1149 31.86% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1223 41.74% 26.40%
9 2019-08-18 25.99 @ Ventspils 3 1348 40.59% FK RFS 0 1360 32.97% 26.44%
10 2019-05-21 25.69 Spartaks Jurmala 3 1207 41.10% @ Jelgava 0 1137 32.48% 26.43%
11 2019-10-05 24.49 @ Jelgava 5 1131 27.91% Spartaks Jurmala 2 1237 45.97% 26.13%
12 2019-06-21 24.32 Jelgava 2 1094 25.23% @ Daugavpils 0 1145 48.95% 25.82%
13 2019-06-15 24.02 @ FK RFS 4 1356 36.20% Ventspils 1 1398 37.29% 26.51%
14 2019-03-17 22.67 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1065 28.83% Daugavpils 0 1163 44.96% 26.21%
15 2019-06-21 22.14 Metta 2 1150 30.07% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1160 43.63% 26.30%
16 2019-04-28 19.15 Riga FC 4 1418 59.32% @ Spartaks Jurmala 0 1197 16.82% 23.86%
17 2019-06-16 18.61 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1248 52.89% Daugavpils 0 1164 21.86% 25.25%
18 2019-06-26 18.51 Jelgava 1 1118 6.97% @ Riga FC 0 1460 75.89% 17.14%
19 2019-04-24 18.48 @ Ventspils 2 1391 39.10% FK RFS 0 1413 34.41% 26.48%
20 2019-03-31 18.46 Valmiera Glass ViA 1 1088 7.09% @ Riga FC 0 1425 75.63% 17.28%
21 2019-08-10 17.74 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1249 54.30% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1153 20.70% 25.00%
22 2019-05-22 17.08 Valmiera Glass ViA 1 1147 11.10% @ FK RFS 0 1384 67.98% 20.92%
23 2019-04-14 17.05 @ Riga FC 2 1411 42.70% Ventspils 0 1408 30.95% 26.35%
24 2019-05-13 16.97 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 1128 11.43% Riga FC 0 1435 67.43% 21.15%
25 2019-06-21 16.90 @ Riga FC 6 1443 62.59% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1267 14.51% 22.90%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-22 63.6 @ Metta 3 1138 14.69% Ventspils 3 1389 62.33% 22.98%
2 2019-08-30 63.1 @ Liepaja 3 1288 35.70% FK RFS 3 1334 37.80% 26.50%
3 2019-11-09 62.7 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 3 1212 56.56% Metta 3 1095 18.91% 24.53%
4 2019-05-04 61.4 @ Spartaks Jurmala 4 1178 16.22% Ventspils 3 1407 60.15% 23.63%
5 2019-11-03 61.4 @ Liepaja 2 1258 16.76% Riga FC 2 1479 59.40% 23.84%
6 2019-05-17 60.4 @ FK RFS 2 1386 67.69% Metta 2 1153 11.27% 21.04%
7 2019-05-18 60.3 @ Ventspils 2 1375 67.42% Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1145 11.43% 21.15%
8 2019-06-25 59.3 @ Ventspils 2 1331 52.57% Spartaks Jurmala 2 1250 22.13% 25.31%
9 2019-07-05 59.3 @ Liepaja 2 1328 50.59% Spartaks Jurmala 2 1264 23.80% 25.61%
10 2019-07-21 59.2 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1142 18.60% Ventspils 2 1340 56.96% 24.44%
11 2019-10-20 58.7 @ Spartaks Jurmala 2 1212 53.61% Metta 2 1122 21.26% 25.13%
12 2019-04-19 58.6 Daugavpils 3 1135 15.17% @ Liepaja 2 1301 61.62% 23.20%
13 2019-10-30 58.5 @ Riga FC 1 1481 53.09% FK RFS 1 1395 21.69% 25.22%
14 2019-08-25 58.3 @ Jelgava 2 1135 46.09% Daugavpils 2 1106 27.79% 26.12%
15 2019-11-09 58.3 @ Daugavpils 2 1094 29.40% Jelgava 2 1188 44.35% 26.25%
16 2019-09-14 58.2 @ Daugavpils 2 1098 34.67% Valmiera Glass ViA 2 1152 38.84% 26.49%
17 2019-10-20 57.4 Valmiera Glass ViA 3 1171 19.11% @ Liepaja 2 1285 56.29% 24.59%
18 2019-10-19 55.7 @ Ventspils 2 1352 23.45% Riga FC 1 1498 51.00% 25.55%
19 2019-05-03 55.6 @ Riga FC 1 1437 73.30% Jelgava 1 1132 8.21% 18.48%
20 2019-04-10 55.2 @ Ventspils 1 1412 71.10% Daugavpils 1 1136 9.35% 19.55%
21 2019-03-16 55.1 @ Jelgava 2 1109 11.01% Ventspils 1 1425 68.13% 20.86%
22 2019-04-28 54.9 @ Ventspils 1 1409 57.74% Liepaja 1 1281 18.00% 24.26%
23 2019-05-08 54.9 @ Ventspils 1 1393 69.66% Jelgava 1 1136 10.14% 20.20%
24 2019-09-14 54.9 @ Ventspils 1 1391 69.62% Jelgava 1 1134 10.16% 20.22%
25 2019-04-06 54.6 @ Valmiera Glass ViA 1 1106 11.37% Ventspils 1 1415 67.52% 21.11%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-14 25.8 @ Riga FC 5 1485 75.60% Metta 0 1148 7.11% 17.29%
2 2019-09-30 26.0 @ Riga FC 2 1495 79.43% Daugavpils 0 1098 5.43% 15.13%
3 2019-07-20 26.7 Riga FC 4 1452 69.27% @ Daugavpils 0 1122 10.35% 20.37%
4 2019-07-28 27.1 @ Ventspils 3 1338 67.20% Daugavpils 0 1110 11.56% 21.24%
5 2019-10-19 27.6 @ FK RFS 2 1390 72.36% Daugavpils 0 1098 8.69% 18.95%
6 2019-06-30 28.5 Riga FC 4 1441 64.08% @ Metta 0 1171 13.52% 22.40%
7 2019-03-31 28.8 @ Ventspils 2 1409 69.32% Metta 0 1156 10.33% 20.35%
8 2019-07-06 29.2 @ FK RFS 2 1355 66.89% Jelgava 0 1131 11.75% 21.36%
9 2019-05-18 29.7 Riga FC 3 1418 60.74% @ Daugavpils 0 1184 15.79% 23.47%
10 2019-04-28 29.9 Riga FC 4 1418 59.32% @ Spartaks Jurmala 0 1197 16.82% 23.86%
11 2019-04-10 30.0 FK RFS 2 1384 64.49% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1110 13.25% 22.26%
12 2019-05-22 30.3 Ventspils 3 1372 57.41% @ Daugavpils 0 1170 18.25% 24.34%
13 2019-09-30 30.3 @ FK RFS 6 1367 67.20% Metta 1 1140 11.56% 21.24%
14 2019-08-10 30.9 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1249 54.30% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1153 20.70% 25.00%
15 2019-06-16 31.3 @ Spartaks Jurmala 3 1248 52.89% Daugavpils 0 1164 21.86% 25.25%
16 2019-11-09 32.1 @ Riga FC 4 1477 71.50% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1197 9.14% 19.36%
17 2019-09-22 32.6 Riga FC 1 1492 70.11% @ Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1151 9.89% 20.00%
18 2019-03-09 32.7 Riga FC 1 1418 67.19% @ Jelgava 0 1113 11.57% 21.24%
19 2019-04-19 32.8 @ Spartaks Jurmala 2 1211 54.07% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1117 20.89% 25.04%
20 2019-07-28 32.9 @ FK RFS 1 1359 66.22% Valmiera Glass ViA 0 1143 12.16% 21.62%
21 2019-06-21 33.2 @ Riga FC 6 1443 62.59% Spartaks Jurmala 1 1267 14.51% 22.90%
22 2019-09-15 33.4 @ FK RFS 6 1334 52.00% Spartaks Jurmala 0 1257 22.60% 25.40%
23 2019-11-03 33.4 @ Spartaks Jurmala 2 1184 51.94% Daugavpils 0 1108 22.65% 25.41%
24 2019-08-05 33.6 FK RFS 1 1363 63.45% @ Daugavpils 0 1100 13.93% 22.62%
25 2019-04-06 33.8 Riga FC 1 1407 63.79% @ Daugavpils 0 1140 13.70% 22.50%