2023 Virsliga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

FK RFS

89 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Auda

10.14 points above expected

58 points · 47.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valmiera

16.51 points below expected

53 points · 69.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	FK RFS	36	27	8	1	89	96	18	+78	79.71	+9.29
2	Riga FC	36	27	7	2	88	89	21	+68	80.33	+7.67
3	Auda	36	16	10	10	58	44	39	+5	47.86	+10.14
4	Valmiera	36	14	11	11	53	47	40	+7	69.51	-16.51
5	Liepaja	36	14	9	13	51	52	54	-2	58.19	-7.19
6	Jelgava	36	10	10	16	40	42	57	-15	35.62	+4.38
7	Daugavpils	36	9	9	18	36	40	52	-12	36.68	-0.68
8	Tukums 2000	36	9	8	19	35	47	83	-36	37.14	-2.14
9	Metta	36	8	9	19	33	41	63	-22	35.98	-2.98
10	Super Nova	36	3	5	28	14	25	96	-71	19.27	-5.27

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Auda	58	47.86	+10.14
2	FK RFS	89	79.71	+9.29
3	Riga FC	88	80.33	+7.67
4	Jelgava	40	35.62	+4.38
5	Daugavpils	36	36.68	-0.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valmiera	53	69.51	-16.51
2	Liepaja	51	58.19	-7.19
3	Super Nova	14	19.27	-5.27
4	Metta	33	35.98	-2.98
5	Tukums 2000	35	37.14	-2.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Auda	4	Aug 27 – Sep 24	1 in 27
2	Metta	3	Apr 2 – Apr 11	1 in 26
3	Riga FC	8	Apr 20 – May 21	1 in 23
4	Jelgava	2	Jul 21 – Jul 31	1 in 20
5	Tukums 2000	2	May 27 – Jun 1	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Liepaja	5	May 12 – Jun 1	1 in 359
2	Tukums 2000	6	Mar 19 – Apr 18	1 in 76
3	Daugavpils	5	Jul 30 – Sep 1	1 in 20
4	Super Nova	8	May 23 – Jul 5	1 in 15
5	Metta	4	Jun 4 – Jun 29	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	FK RFS	27	Mar 11 – Aug 27	1 in 109
2	Super Nova	3	Sep 27 – Oct 8	1 in 58
3	Metta	6	Apr 29 – May 23	1 in 45
4	Jelgava	4	Aug 13 – Sep 16	1 in 40
5	Daugavpils	6	Jun 10 – Jul 22	1 in 25

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valmiera	4	Sep 24 – Oct 7	1 in 118
2	Metta	11	Jul 26 – Oct 22	1 in 39
3	Super Nova	25	Apr 20 – Oct 1	1 in 16
4	Liepaja	6	Jun 29 – Jul 30	1 in 13
5	Auda	6	Apr 2 – Apr 24	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
FK RFS	1724	89	+17	15	12.8	+2.2
Riga FC	1707	88	+2	11	12.5	-1.5
Auda	1438	58	+23	10	7.7	+2.3
Valmiera	1451	53	-42	8	9.4	-1.4
Liepaja	1368	51	-7	8	9.5	-1.5
Jelgava	1254	40	-14	5	5.6	-0.6
Daugavpils	1253	36	+8	4	2.9	+1.1
Tukums 2000	1241	35	-23	1	3.6	-2.6
Metta	1210	33	+16	3	4.4	-1.4
Super Nova	997	14	+19	4	1.5	+2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AUD	DAU	FR	JEL	LIE	MET	RIG	SN	T2	VAL
Auda	—	3-1-0 6.99	0-1-3 2.06	3-1-0 7.35	0-3-1 4.55	4-0-0 7.07	0-0-4 2.02	4-0-0 8.69	1-2-1 7.29	1-2-1 2.96
Daugavpils	0-1-3 4.03	—	0-0-4 1.50	1-2-1 5.82	1-0-3 3.34	1-2-1 5.72	0-1-3 1.41	4-0-0 7.51	1-1-2 5.01	1-2-1 2.04
FK RFS	3-1-0 9.11	4-0-0 9.78	—	4-0-0 9.89	3-1-0 8.28	3-1-0 9.96	0-4-0 5.45	4-0-0 10.77	4-0-0 9.71	2-1-1 6.64
Jelgava	0-1-3 3.67	1-2-1 5.18	0-0-4 1.41	—	2-1-1 2.82	3-0-1 5.40	1-0-3 1.33	1-3-0 7.69	1-2-1 5.09	1-1-2 2.10
Liepaja	1-3-0 6.46	3-0-1 7.70	0-1-3 2.81	1-1-2 8.26	—	1-3-0 8.06	0-0-4 3.26	4-0-0 9.62	3-0-1 7.82	1-1-2 3.77
Metta	0-0-4 3.95	1-2-1 5.26	0-1-3 1.36	1-0-3 5.59	0-3-1 3.00	—	0-0-4 1.31	3-0-1 7.96	2-2-0 4.92	1-1-2 1.93
Riga FC	4-0-0 9.15	3-1-0 9.88	0-4-0 5.54	3-0-1 9.99	4-0-0 7.83	4-0-0 10.01	—	3-1-0 10.74	4-0-0 9.84	2-1-1 7.81
Super Nova	0-0-4 2.44	0-0-4 3.54	0-0-4 0.75	0-3-1 3.36	0-0-4 1.62	1-0-3 3.11	0-1-3 0.78	—	1-0-3 2.81	1-1-2 1.09
Tukums 2000	1-2-1 3.74	2-1-1 5.99	0-0-4 1.55	1-2-1 5.90	1-0-3 3.22	0-2-2 6.08	0-0-4 1.45	3-0-1 8.27	—	1-1-2 2.11
Valmiera	1-2-1 8.11	1-2-1 9.12	1-1-2 4.40	2-1-1 9.08	2-1-1 7.25	2-1-1 9.25	1-1-2 3.25	2-1-1 10.29	2-1-1 9.05	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+10.1
Allowed	0.86	-9.0
Differential	0.97	+5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	8.61%	6.67%	3.61%	2.50%	2.22%	30.28%
1	8.61%	12.78%	4.17%	3.61%	0.83%	1.39%	31.39%
2	6.67%	4.17%	3.89%	2.22%	0.28%	1.11%	18.33%
3	3.61%	3.61%	2.22%	0.56%	0.28%	0.28%	10.56%
4	2.50%	0.83%	0.28%	0.28%	—	0.28%	4.17%
5+	2.22%	1.39%	1.11%	0.28%	0.28%	—	5.28%
Total	30.28%	31.39%	18.33%	10.56%	4.17%	5.28%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.45	+0.00
SD	1.47	1.47	2.25
CV	1.01	1.01	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	13.89%	13.89%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
3	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	44.44%	27.78%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.08	+0.14
SD	1.17	1.34	2.03
CV	0.96	1.24	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	5.56%	—	2.78%	41.67%
1	5.56%	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	22.22%	36.11%	22.22%	16.67%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.44	-0.33
SD	1.35	1.18	1.84
CV	1.21	0.82	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
2	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	25.00%
Total	63.89%	27.78%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	0.50	+2.17
SD	2.11	0.85	2.09
CV	0.79	1.69	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	2.78%	36.11%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.58	-0.42
SD	1.13	1.25	1.52
CV	0.97	0.79	—
Max	5	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	13.89%
1	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	52.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	19.44%	38.89%	19.44%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.50	-0.06
SD	1.21	1.16	1.87
CV	0.83	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	19.44%	5.56%	—	2.78%	5.56%	38.89%
1	—	19.44%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	8.33%
3	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	50.00%	19.44%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.75	-0.61
SD	1.25	1.36	1.95
CV	1.09	0.78	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	11.11%	13.89%	—	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	55.56%	38.89%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.47	0.58	+1.89
SD	1.52	0.94	1.74
CV	0.62	1.61	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	19.44%	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	47.22%
1	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	8.33%	36.11%
2	2.78%	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	30.56%	13.89%	11.11%	19.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.69	2.67	-1.97
SD	0.75	1.69	1.81
CV	1.08	0.63	—
Max	2	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	36.11%
1	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	2.78%	—	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%	2.78%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	22.22%	13.89%	30.56%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	2.31	-1.00
SD	1.35	2.04	2.52
CV	1.03	0.88	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	30.56%
1	13.89%	16.67%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	36.11%	36.11%	11.11%	13.89%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.11	+0.19
SD	1.41	1.14	1.89
CV	1.08	1.03	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
FK RFS	1724	89	79.71	+9.29	92.0%	62	68	75	79	84	92	95
Riga FC	1707	88	80.33	+7.67	88.0%	63	70	76	80	85	91	99
Valmiera	1451	53	69.51	-16.51	1.0%	47	60	66	68	74	79	87
Auda	1438	58	47.86	+10.14	97.0%	26	35	43	48	53	58	61
Liepaja	1368	51	58.19	-7.19	20.0%	42	46	54	57	64	68	74
Jelgava	1254	40	35.62	+4.38	77.0%	20	24	32	36	39	46	49
Daugavpils	1253	36	36.68	-0.68	49.0%	20	27	32	37	41	46	54
Tukums 2000	1241	35	37.14	-2.14	44.0%	23	24	33	37	42	49	63
Metta	1210	33	35.98	-2.98	33.0%	16	24	32	36	40	48	55
Super Nova	997	14	19.27	-5.27	18.0%	8	11	15	19	22	28	32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.56%

Clear Edge

43.33%23.89%32.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 36.81 Elo pts.

212 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.07 goals

Neutral

-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.1

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

44%

FK RFS, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.03/gm

Photo Finish

00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.29 * Some Luck: 5.29 to 7.94 * Lucky: 7.94 to 10.58 * Wild Swing: 10.58 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.62 * Close: 0.62 to 0.93 * Off: 0.93 to 1.24 * Way Off: 1.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.95 points

Lucky

06.6117

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

Off

00.782

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Auda

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

1.00%

Valmiera

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Even

00.240.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 225.76

3.01

Wide Separation

12.552.953.5

Interquartile Edge

76%

Even

50%82%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Frequent

0%49%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Occasional

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.51

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.56

Notable Separation

00.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.52

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.77

Strong Carryover

00.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

13%

Chalky

0%17%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

13%

As Expected

0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.36

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.96

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.068

Well Within Noise

00.1100.25

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
FK RFS	44.00%	42.00%	12.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Riga FC	53.00%	36.00%	10.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Auda	—	—	1.00%	16.00%	55.00%	19.00%	5.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—
Valmiera	3.00%	20.00%	65.00%	11.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Liepaja	—	2.00%	12.00%	67.00%	17.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Jelgava	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	17.00%	25.00%	26.00%	24.00%	2.00%
Daugavpils	—	—	—	—	9.00%	22.00%	18.00%	28.00%	22.00%	1.00%
Tukums 2000	—	—	—	1.00%	8.00%	22.00%	24.00%	21.00%	20.00%	4.00%
Metta	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	18.00%	28.00%	22.00%	22.00%	4.00%
Super Nova	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	9.00%	89.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Auda	97.00%	3.00%	—
FK RFS	100%	—	—
Liepaja	100%	—	—
Riga FC	100%	—	—
Valmiera	100%	—	—
Daugavpils	77.00%	22.00%	1.00%
Jelgava	74.00%	24.00%	2.00%
Metta	74.00%	22.00%	4.00%
Tukums 2000	76.00%	20.00%	4.00%
Super Nova	2.00%	9.00%	89.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2023-03-11	FK RFS	D 0-0	64.0	1617	1544	52.03%	24.66%	23.31%	+0.52	-2.5	1
2023-03-11	@ Valmiera	D 0-0	64.0	1544	1617	23.31%	24.66%	52.03%	-0.52	+2.5	1
2023-03-11	Super Nova	W 2-0	33.2	1351	1190	61.18%	23.26%	15.56%	+0.93	+12.6	3
2023-03-11	@ Auda	L 0-2	33.2	1190	1351	15.56%	23.26%	61.18%	-0.93	-12.7	0
2023-03-12	Daugavpils	W 1-0	39.0	1296	1236	50.57%	24.80%	24.62%	+0.46	+10.1	3
2023-03-12	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-1	39.0	1236	1296	24.62%	24.80%	50.57%	-0.46	-10.1	0
2023-03-12	Jelgava	W 2-1	38.0	1536	1182	75.30%	18.40%	6.30%	+1.84	+2.5	3
2023-03-12	@ Riga FC	L 1-2	38.0	1182	1536	6.30%	18.40%	75.30%	-1.84	-2.5	0
2023-03-17	Daugavpils	W 2-1	47.8	1180	1226	36.33%	25.34%	38.33%	-0.04	+13.4	3
2023-03-17	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	47.8	1226	1180	38.33%	25.34%	36.33%	+0.04	-13.4	0
2023-03-18	Auda	L 0-2	36.5	1220	1364	24.02%	24.74%	51.24%	-0.51	-18.6	0
2023-03-18	@ Metta	W 2-0	36.5	1364	1220	51.24%	24.74%	24.02%	+0.51	+18.6	6
2023-03-18	FK RFS	D 1-1	65.6	1538	1546	41.70%	25.29%	33.01%	+0.14	-0.6	4
2023-03-18	@ Riga FC	D 1-1	65.6	1546	1538	33.01%	25.29%	41.70%	-0.14	+0.6	2
2023-03-18	Liepaja	L 0-1	61.6	1614	1472	59.40%	23.61%	16.98%	+0.84	-20.6	1
2023-03-18	@ Valmiera	W 1-0	61.6	1472	1614	16.98%	23.61%	59.40%	-0.84	+20.6	3
2023-03-19	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	43.7	1178	1306	25.75%	24.91%	49.34%	-0.43	+32.9	3
2023-03-19	@ Super Nova	L 0-2	43.7	1306	1178	49.34%	24.91%	25.75%	+0.43	-32.9	3
2023-04-01	FK RFS	L 0-2	32.4	1193	1547	9.07%	20.55%	70.38%	-1.50	-7.4	3
2023-04-01	@ Jelgava	W 2-0	32.4	1547	1193	70.38%	20.55%	9.07%	+1.50	+7.4	5
2023-04-01	Riga FC	L 0-3	48.7	1493	1538	36.49%	25.34%	38.17%	-0.04	-37.5	3
2023-04-01	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	48.7	1538	1493	38.17%	25.34%	36.49%	+0.04	+37.5	7
2023-04-01	Super Nova	W 3-0	36.4	1212	1211	42.99%	25.26%	31.76%	+0.18	+33.8	3
2023-04-01	@ Daugavpils	L 0-3	36.4	1211	1212	31.76%	25.26%	42.99%	-0.18	-33.8	3
2023-04-02	Metta	L 1-2	51.8	1273	1201	51.94%	24.67%	23.38%	+0.51	-17.2	3
2023-04-02	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-1	51.8	1201	1273	23.38%	24.67%	51.94%	-0.51	+17.2	3
2023-04-02	Valmiera	L 0-4	39.6	1382	1594	17.69%	23.77%	58.54%	-0.82	-27.0	6
2023-04-02	@ Auda	W 4-0	39.6	1594	1382	58.54%	23.77%	17.69%	+0.82	+27.0	4
2023-04-05	Liepaja	W 2-0	44.8	1554	1455	54.99%	24.32%	20.70%	+0.64	+16.4	8
2023-04-05	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	44.8	1455	1554	20.70%	24.32%	54.99%	-0.64	-16.4	3
2023-04-05	Super Nova	W 2-0	38.0	1186	1177	43.97%	25.22%	30.81%	+0.21	+22.7	6
2023-04-05	@ Jelgava	L 0-2	38.0	1177	1186	30.81%	25.22%	43.97%	-0.21	-22.7	3
2023-04-06	Auda	W 2-0	38.6	1575	1355	66.23%	21.97%	11.80%	+1.21	+9.7	10
2023-04-06	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	38.6	1355	1575	11.80%	21.97%	66.23%	-1.21	-9.7	6
2023-04-06	Tukums 2000	W 4-3	49.1	1620	1256	75.92%	18.09%	5.99%	+1.89	+2.2	7
2023-04-06	@ Valmiera	L 3-4	49.1	1256	1620	5.99%	18.09%	75.92%	-1.89	-2.2	3
2023-04-07	Daugavpils	W 3-2	51.9	1218	1246	38.97%	25.34%	35.69%	+0.04	+12.1	6
2023-04-07	@ Metta	L 2-3	51.9	1246	1218	35.69%	25.34%	38.97%	-0.04	-12.1	3
2023-04-09	Jelgava	W 3-2	44.5	1439	1208	67.07%	21.71%	11.22%	+1.26	+4.4	6
2023-04-09	@ Liepaja	L 2-3	44.5	1208	1439	11.22%	21.71%	67.07%	-1.26	-4.3	6
2023-04-10	FK RFS	D 0-0	55.9	1346	1571	16.59%	23.52%	59.90%	-0.89	+3.9	7
2023-04-10	@ Auda	D 0-0	55.9	1571	1346	59.90%	23.52%	16.59%	+0.89	-3.9	9
2023-04-10	Riga FC	L 0-2	35.0	1254	1585	10.10%	21.15%	68.75%	-1.39	-8.2	3
2023-04-10	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-0	35.0	1585	1254	68.75%	21.15%	10.10%	+1.39	+8.2	13
2023-04-11	Metta	L 0-3	36.4	1154	1230	32.18%	25.27%	42.55%	-0.19	-34.1	3
2023-04-11	@ Super Nova	W 3-0	36.4	1230	1154	42.55%	25.27%	32.18%	+0.19	+34.1	9
2023-04-11	Valmiera	D 1-1	59.3	1234	1623	7.70%	19.61%	72.69%	-1.66	+5.5	4
2023-04-11	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	59.3	1623	1234	72.69%	19.61%	7.70%	+1.66	-5.5	8
2023-04-14	Auda	D 1-1	56.3	1443	1350	54.39%	24.39%	21.21%	+0.62	-2.6	7
2023-04-14	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	56.3	1350	1443	21.21%	24.39%	54.39%	-0.62	+2.6	8
2023-04-14	Tukums 2000	W 1-0	35.5	1567	1246	73.34%	19.32%	7.34%	+1.69	+3.1	12
2023-04-14	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	35.5	1246	1567	7.34%	19.32%	73.34%	-1.69	-3.1	3
2023-04-15	Metta	W 2-1	48.6	1204	1265	34.29%	25.32%	40.39%	-0.11	+14.0	9
2023-04-15	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	48.6	1265	1204	40.39%	25.32%	34.29%	+0.11	-14.0	9
2023-04-15	Riga FC	D 1-1	58.4	1239	1593	9.08%	20.56%	70.37%	-1.50	+5.2	5
2023-04-15	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	58.4	1593	1239	70.37%	20.56%	9.08%	+1.50	-5.2	14
2023-04-16	Valmiera	W 1-0	54.6	1120	1617	4.62%	16.52%	78.86%	-2.17	+26.0	6
2023-04-16	@ Super Nova	L 0-1	54.6	1617	1120	78.86%	16.52%	4.62%	+2.17	-26.0	8
2023-04-18	Liepaja	L 0-3	33.5	1243	1441	18.78%	23.99%	57.23%	-0.76	-21.8	3
2023-04-18	@ Tukums 2000	W 3-0	33.5	1441	1243	57.23%	23.99%	18.78%	+0.76	+21.8	10
2023-04-19	Auda	D 0-0	49.4	1218	1352	25.08%	24.85%	50.07%	-0.46	+2.2	10
2023-04-19	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	49.4	1352	1218	50.07%	24.85%	25.08%	+0.46	-2.2	9
2023-04-19	FK RFS	L 0-5	31.5	1245	1570	10.37%	21.29%	68.34%	-1.36	-19.8	5
2023-04-19	@ Daugavpils	W 5-0	31.5	1570	1245	68.34%	21.29%	10.37%	+1.36	+19.8	15
2023-04-20	Riga FC	L 0-4	27.7	1146	1588	6.01%	18.11%	75.88%	-1.91	-8.9	6
2023-04-20	@ Super Nova	W 4-0	27.7	1588	1146	75.88%	18.11%	6.01%	+1.91	+8.9	17
2023-04-20	Valmiera	L 0-1	37.4	1251	1591	9.66%	20.90%	69.44%	-1.43	-4.2	9
2023-04-20	@ Metta	W 1-0	37.4	1591	1251	69.44%	20.90%	9.66%	+1.43	+4.2	11
2023-04-23	Daugavpils	W 1-0	35.0	1462	1225	67.62%	21.53%	10.85%	+1.30	+4.7	13
2023-04-23	@ Liepaja	L 0-1	35.0	1225	1462	10.85%	21.53%	67.62%	-1.30	-4.7	5
2023-04-24	Jelgava	W 2-0	32.0	1595	1220	76.53%	17.78%	5.69%	+1.95	+4.4	14
2023-04-24	@ Valmiera	L 0-2	32.0	1220	1595	5.69%	17.78%	76.53%	-1.95	-4.4	10
2023-04-24	Super Nova	W 2-1	36.6	1590	1137	80.50%	15.56%	3.94%	+2.31	+1.5	18
2023-04-24	@ FK RFS	L 1-2	36.6	1137	1590	3.94%	15.56%	80.50%	-2.31	-1.5	6
2023-04-24	Tukums 2000	L 0-3	44.4	1350	1221	58.17%	23.84%	18.00%	+0.78	-55.3	9
2023-04-24	@ Auda	W 3-0	44.4	1221	1350	18.00%	23.84%	58.17%	-0.78	+55.3	6
2023-04-25	Metta	W 4-0	30.3	1597	1246	75.11%	18.49%	6.39%	+1.83	+9.6	20
2023-04-25	@ Riga FC	L 0-4	30.3	1246	1597	6.39%	18.49%	75.11%	-1.83	-9.6	9
2023-04-28	Auda	L 0-2	38.8	1220	1295	32.36%	25.27%	42.36%	-0.18	-23.6	5
2023-04-28	@ Daugavpils	W 2-0	38.8	1295	1220	42.36%	25.27%	32.36%	+0.18	+23.6	12
2023-04-28	Liepaja	L 2-6	34.3	1136	1467	10.08%	21.14%	68.78%	-1.39	-11.0	6
2023-04-28	@ Super Nova	W 6-2	34.3	1467	1136	68.78%	21.14%	10.08%	+1.39	+11.0	16
2023-04-29	FK RFS	D 0-0	54.2	1237	1591	9.05%	20.54%	70.41%	-1.50	+5.8	10
2023-04-29	@ Metta	D 0-0	54.2	1591	1237	70.41%	20.54%	9.05%	+1.50	-5.8	19
2023-04-29	Tukums 2000	D 2-2	58.1	1216	1276	34.31%	25.32%	40.37%	-0.11	+0.3	11
2023-04-29	@ Jelgava	D 2-2	58.1	1276	1216	40.37%	25.32%	34.31%	+0.11	-0.3	7
2023-04-30	Valmiera	W 3-0	52.4	1606	1600	43.70%	25.23%	31.07%	+0.21	+33.2	23
2023-04-30	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	52.4	1600	1606	31.07%	25.23%	43.70%	-0.21	-33.2	14
2023-05-02	Auda	L 0-2	34.3	1125	1318	19.18%	24.06%	56.76%	-0.74	-15.3	6
2023-05-02	@ Super Nova	W 2-0	34.3	1318	1125	56.76%	24.06%	19.18%	+0.74	+15.3	15
2023-05-03	Metta	D 1-1	55.9	1478	1243	67.46%	21.58%	10.96%	+1.29	-4.7	17
2023-05-03	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	55.9	1243	1478	10.96%	21.58%	67.46%	-1.29	+4.7	11
2023-05-03	Tukums 2000	D 3-3	62.0	1196	1276	31.76%	25.26%	42.98%	-0.20	+0.5	6
2023-05-03	@ Daugavpils	D 3-3	62.0	1276	1196	42.98%	25.26%	31.76%	+0.20	-0.5	8
2023-05-04	Riga FC	L 1-3	38.7	1216	1640	6.54%	18.63%	74.83%	-1.83	-4.5	11
2023-05-04	@ Jelgava	W 3-1	38.7	1640	1216	74.83%	18.63%	6.54%	+1.83	+4.5	26
2023-05-04	Valmiera	W 2-1	60.0	1585	1567	45.31%	25.16%	29.53%	+0.26	+11.0	22
2023-05-04	@ FK RFS	L 1-2	60.0	1567	1585	29.53%	25.16%	45.31%	-0.26	-11.0	14
2023-05-07	Liepaja	L 0-4	36.7	1334	1473	24.47%	24.79%	50.74%	-0.49	-35.8	15
2023-05-07	@ Auda	W 4-0	36.7	1473	1334	50.74%	24.79%	24.47%	+0.49	+35.8	20
2023-05-08	Daugavpils	W 1-0	34.2	1644	1197	80.25%	15.71%	4.04%	+2.29	+1.6	29
2023-05-08	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	34.2	1197	1644	4.04%	15.71%	80.25%	-2.29	-1.6	6
2023-05-08	Super Nova	W 3-1	33.6	1556	1109	80.20%	15.74%	4.06%	+2.28	+2.6	17
2023-05-08	@ Valmiera	L 1-3	33.6	1109	1556	4.06%	15.74%	80.20%	-2.28	-2.6	6
2023-05-09	FK RFS	L 1-7	35.5	1275	1596	10.58%	21.40%	68.03%	-1.34	-19.8	8
2023-05-09	@ Tukums 2000	W 7-1	35.5	1596	1275	68.03%	21.40%	10.58%	+1.34	+19.8	25
2023-05-09	Metta	L 2-3	52.5	1212	1247	37.77%	25.35%	36.88%	+0.00	-12.6	11
2023-05-09	@ Jelgava	W 3-2	52.5	1247	1212	36.88%	25.35%	37.77%	+0.00	+12.6	14
2023-05-12	Auda	D 1-1	58.9	1558	1298	69.28%	20.96%	9.76%	+1.40	-5.0	18
2023-05-12	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	58.9	1298	1558	9.76%	20.96%	69.28%	-1.40	+5.0	16
2023-05-12	Riga FC	L 0-4	48.2	1509	1646	24.85%	24.83%	50.33%	-0.47	-36.2	20
2023-05-12	@ Liepaja	W 4-0	48.2	1646	1509	50.33%	24.83%	24.85%	+0.47	+36.2	32
2023-05-13	Jelgava	W 4-0	28.5	1616	1199	78.76%	16.57%	4.66%	+2.14	+6.7	28
2023-05-13	@ FK RFS	L 0-4	28.5	1199	1616	4.66%	16.57%	78.76%	-2.14	-6.7	11
2023-05-13	Tukums 2000	W 3-2	50.7	1260	1255	43.42%	25.24%	31.34%	+0.20	+10.9	17
2023-05-13	@ Metta	L 2-3	50.7	1255	1260	31.34%	25.24%	43.42%	-0.20	-10.9	8
2023-05-14	Daugavpils	L 0-4	34.9	1107	1195	30.57%	25.21%	44.22%	-0.24	-42.8	6
2023-05-14	@ Super Nova	W 4-0	34.9	1195	1107	44.22%	25.21%	30.57%	+0.24	+42.8	9
2023-05-16	Riga FC	L 0-2	38.8	1303	1682	8.06%	19.87%	72.06%	-1.62	-6.5	16
2023-05-16	@ Auda	W 2-0	38.8	1682	1303	72.06%	19.87%	8.06%	+1.62	+6.5	35
2023-05-17	FK RFS	L 0-3	46.9	1473	1623	23.40%	24.68%	51.92%	-0.53	-26.4	20
2023-05-17	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	46.9	1623	1473	51.92%	24.68%	23.40%	+0.53	+26.4	31
2023-05-17	Valmiera	D 0-0	53.1	1244	1553	11.21%	21.70%	67.09%	-1.28	+5.2	9
2023-05-17	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	53.1	1553	1244	67.09%	21.70%	11.21%	+1.28	-5.2	19
2023-05-18	Jelgava	D 2-2	57.9	1064	1192	25.77%	24.91%	49.32%	-0.43	+1.3	7
2023-05-18	@ Super Nova	D 2-2	57.9	1192	1064	49.32%	24.91%	25.77%	+0.43	-1.4	12
2023-05-18	Metta	D 1-1	53.0	1238	1271	38.22%	25.34%	36.43%	+0.02	-0.1	10
2023-05-18	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	53.0	1271	1238	36.43%	25.34%	38.22%	-0.02	+0.1	18
2023-05-21	Auda	W 2-0	36.4	1649	1296	75.25%	18.42%	6.32%	+1.84	+5.0	34
2023-05-21	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	36.4	1296	1649	6.32%	18.42%	75.25%	-1.84	-5.0	16
2023-05-21	Tukums 2000	W 5-1	35.8	1688	1250	79.84%	15.95%	4.21%	+2.25	+5.0	38
2023-05-21	@ Riga FC	L 1-5	35.8	1250	1688	4.21%	15.95%	79.84%	-2.25	-5.0	9
2023-05-22	Daugavpils	W 1-0	35.1	1548	1238	72.64%	19.63%	7.73%	+1.64	+3.3	22
2023-05-22	@ Valmiera	L 0-1	35.1	1238	1548	7.73%	19.63%	72.64%	-1.64	-3.3	10
2023-05-22	Liepaja	W 2-1	55.4	1191	1447	14.36%	22.91%	62.73%	-1.03	+20.4	15
2023-05-22	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	55.4	1447	1191	62.73%	22.91%	14.36%	+1.03	-20.4	20
2023-05-23	Super Nova	W 4-1	34.4	1271	1065	65.09%	22.30%	12.61%	+1.14	+12.7	21
2023-05-23	@ Metta	L 1-4	34.4	1065	1271	12.61%	22.30%	65.09%	-1.14	-12.6	7
2023-05-26	Jelgava	W 5-2	43.2	1235	1211	45.92%	25.13%	28.95%	+0.28	+22.9	13
2023-05-26	@ Daugavpils	L 2-5	43.2	1211	1235	28.95%	25.13%	45.92%	-0.28	-22.9	15
2023-05-26	Riga FC	D 0-0	67.1	1654	1693	37.30%	25.35%	37.35%	-0.01	+0.0	35
2023-05-26	@ FK RFS	D 0-0	67.1	1693	1654	37.35%	25.35%	37.30%	+0.01	-0.0	39
2023-05-27	Super Nova	W 3-2	44.2	1245	1053	63.96%	22.60%	13.44%	+1.08	+5.2	12
2023-05-27	@ Tukums 2000	L 2-3	44.2	1053	1245	13.44%	22.60%	63.96%	-1.08	-5.2	7
2023-05-27	Valmiera	L 1-2	53.0	1426	1551	26.13%	24.94%	48.93%	-0.42	-10.0	20
2023-05-27	@ Liepaja	W 2-1	53.0	1551	1426	48.93%	24.94%	26.13%	+0.42	+10.0	25
2023-05-28	Metta	W 3-1	43.8	1291	1284	43.85%	25.22%	30.93%	+0.21	+19.7	19
2023-05-28	@ Auda	L 1-3	43.8	1284	1291	30.93%	25.22%	43.85%	-0.21	-19.7	21
2023-05-30	Daugavpils	W 3-1	39.6	1654	1258	77.69%	17.17%	5.14%	+2.05	+3.4	38
2023-05-30	@ FK RFS	L 1-3	39.6	1258	1654	5.14%	17.17%	77.69%	-2.05	-3.4	13
2023-05-31	Metta	D 1-1	58.4	1561	1264	71.82%	19.98%	8.21%	+1.58	-5.4	26
2023-05-31	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	58.4	1264	1561	8.21%	19.98%	71.82%	-1.58	+5.4	22
2023-05-31	Super Nova	W 5-1	28.1	1693	1047	88.06%	10.43%	1.51%	+3.22	+1.6	42
2023-05-31	@ Riga FC	L 1-5	28.1	1047	1693	1.51%	10.43%	88.06%	-3.22	-1.6	7
2023-06-01	Jelgava	W 1-0	36.8	1311	1188	57.49%	23.95%	18.56%	+0.75	+7.9	22
2023-06-01	@ Auda	L 0-1	36.8	1188	1311	18.56%	23.95%	57.49%	-0.75	-7.9	15
2023-06-01	Tukums 2000	L 0-1	50.5	1416	1250	61.70%	23.14%	15.16%	+0.96	-21.3	20
2023-06-01	@ Liepaja	W 1-0	50.5	1250	1416	15.16%	23.14%	61.70%	-0.96	+21.3	15
2023-06-04	FK RFS	L 1-6	27.6	1046	1658	2.65%	13.29%	84.06%	-2.71	-3.6	7
2023-06-04	@ Super Nova	W 6-1	27.6	1658	1046	84.06%	13.29%	2.65%	+2.71	+3.6	41
2023-06-04	Riga FC	L 0-2	37.2	1269	1695	6.48%	18.57%	74.95%	-1.84	-5.1	22
2023-06-04	@ Metta	W 2-0	37.2	1695	1269	74.95%	18.57%	6.48%	+1.84	+5.1	45
2023-06-05	Liepaja	L 1-2	44.6	1254	1395	24.37%	24.78%	50.85%	-0.49	-9.4	13
2023-06-05	@ Daugavpils	W 2-1	44.6	1395	1254	50.85%	24.78%	24.37%	+0.49	+9.4	23
2023-06-05	Valmiera	W 2-0	51.0	1180	1556	8.20%	19.97%	71.82%	-1.60	+45.9	18
2023-06-05	@ Jelgava	L 0-2	51.0	1556	1180	71.82%	19.97%	8.20%	+1.60	-45.9	26
2023-06-06	Auda	D 2-2	58.6	1271	1319	36.08%	25.34%	38.58%	-0.05	+0.1	16
2023-06-06	@ Tukums 2000	D 2-2	58.6	1319	1271	38.58%	25.34%	36.08%	+0.05	-0.1	23
2023-06-09	FK RFS	L 0-6	33.7	1264	1661	7.41%	19.38%	73.22%	-1.70	-16.5	22
2023-06-09	@ Metta	W 6-0	33.7	1661	1264	73.22%	19.38%	7.41%	+1.70	+16.5	44
2023-06-09	Riga FC	W 1-0	64.3	1510	1700	19.48%	24.12%	56.40%	-0.72	+19.6	29
2023-06-09	@ Valmiera	L 0-1	64.3	1700	1510	56.40%	24.12%	19.48%	+0.72	-19.7	45
2023-06-09	Super Nova	W 2-1	36.1	1404	1042	75.78%	18.16%	6.05%	+1.88	+2.4	26
2023-06-09	@ Liepaja	L 1-2	36.1	1042	1404	6.05%	18.16%	75.78%	-1.88	-2.4	7
2023-06-10	Daugavpils	D 1-1	53.5	1319	1245	52.18%	24.65%	23.17%	+0.52	-2.3	24
2023-06-10	@ Auda	D 1-1	53.5	1245	1319	23.17%	24.65%	52.18%	-0.52	+2.3	14
2023-06-10	Jelgava	W 2-0	36.8	1271	1226	48.67%	24.96%	26.37%	+0.39	+20.0	19
2023-06-10	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-2	36.8	1226	1271	26.37%	24.96%	48.67%	-0.39	-20.1	18
2023-06-25	Auda	L 0-5	28.8	1040	1317	13.03%	22.45%	64.52%	-1.13	-24.9	7
2023-06-25	@ Super Nova	W 5-0	28.8	1317	1040	64.52%	22.45%	13.03%	+1.13	+24.9	27
2023-06-25	Metta	W 3-2	46.3	1407	1248	61.03%	23.29%	15.68%	+0.92	+6.0	29
2023-06-25	@ Liepaja	L 2-3	46.3	1248	1407	15.68%	23.29%	61.03%	-0.92	-6.0	22
2023-06-25	Riga FC	L 1-3	38.8	1206	1680	5.15%	17.18%	77.67%	-2.06	-3.4	18
2023-06-25	@ Jelgava	W 3-1	38.8	1680	1206	77.67%	17.18%	5.15%	+2.06	+3.4	48
2023-06-25	Valmiera	W 3-0	47.5	1678	1530	60.01%	23.50%	16.49%	+0.87	+19.4	47
2023-06-25	@ FK RFS	L 0-3	47.5	1530	1678	16.49%	23.50%	60.01%	-0.87	-19.4	29
2023-06-26	Tukums 2000	W 3-1	45.8	1247	1291	36.55%	25.34%	38.10%	-0.04	+23.1	17
2023-06-26	@ Daugavpils	L 1-3	45.8	1291	1247	38.10%	25.34%	36.55%	+0.04	-23.1	19
2023-06-29	Auda	L 0-1	40.7	1242	1342	29.13%	25.14%	45.73%	-0.30	-11.5	22
2023-06-29	@ Metta	W 1-0	40.7	1342	1242	45.73%	25.14%	29.13%	+0.30	+11.5	30
2023-06-29	Liepaja	D 1-1	60.0	1510	1413	54.81%	24.34%	20.85%	+0.63	-2.7	30
2023-06-29	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	60.0	1413	1510	20.85%	24.34%	54.81%	-0.63	+2.7	30
2023-06-30	FK RFS	D 2-2	76.6	1684	1697	40.97%	25.31%	33.72%	+0.11	-0.4	49
2023-06-30	@ Riga FC	D 2-2	76.6	1697	1684	33.72%	25.31%	40.97%	-0.11	+0.4	48
2023-06-30	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.1	1270	1203	51.38%	24.73%	23.89%	+0.49	-2.1	18
2023-06-30	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	53.1	1203	1270	23.89%	24.73%	51.38%	-0.49	+2.1	19
2023-06-30	Tukums 2000	L 2-5	38.0	1015	1268	14.53%	22.96%	62.51%	-1.02	-12.6	7
2023-06-30	@ Super Nova	W 5-2	38.0	1268	1015	62.51%	22.96%	14.53%	+1.02	+12.6	22
2023-07-03	Metta	D 1-1	53.2	1281	1230	49.39%	24.90%	25.71%	+0.41	-1.8	23
2023-07-03	@ Tukums 2000	D 1-1	53.2	1230	1281	25.71%	24.90%	49.39%	-0.41	+1.8	23
2023-07-03	Valmiera	D 0-0	53.9	1353	1507	22.93%	24.62%	52.45%	-0.56	+2.6	31
2023-07-03	@ Auda	D 0-0	53.9	1507	1353	52.45%	24.62%	22.93%	+0.56	-2.6	31
2023-07-04	Jelgava	W 1-0	35.4	1698	1205	82.33%	14.43%	3.25%	+2.50	+1.2	51
2023-07-04	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	35.4	1205	1698	3.25%	14.43%	82.33%	-2.50	-1.2	19
2023-07-04	Liepaja	W 3-1	48.7	1684	1415	69.83%	20.76%	9.41%	+1.44	+6.6	52
2023-07-04	@ Riga FC	L 1-3	48.7	1415	1684	9.41%	20.76%	69.83%	-1.44	-6.6	30
2023-07-05	Super Nova	W 2-0	30.2	1268	1002	69.66%	20.82%	9.52%	+1.43	+7.8	21
2023-07-05	@ Daugavpils	L 0-2	30.2	1002	1268	9.52%	20.82%	69.66%	-1.43	-7.8	7
2023-07-07	Tukums 2000	W 6-0	31.6	1505	1279	66.71%	21.82%	11.47%	+1.24	+26.1	34
2023-07-07	@ Valmiera	L 0-6	31.6	1279	1505	11.47%	21.82%	66.71%	-1.24	-26.1	23
2023-07-08	Auda	W 1-0	43.0	1690	1356	74.16%	18.95%	6.89%	+1.75	+2.9	55
2023-07-08	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	43.0	1356	1690	6.89%	18.95%	74.16%	-1.75	-2.9	31
2023-07-08	FK RFS	D 1-1	67.3	1409	1699	12.24%	22.15%	65.61%	-1.20	+4.5	31
2023-07-08	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	67.3	1699	1409	65.61%	22.15%	12.24%	+1.20	-4.4	52
2023-07-09	Super Nova	D 2-2	58.7	1204	995	65.38%	22.21%	12.41%	+1.16	-3.3	20
2023-07-09	@ Jelgava	D 2-2	58.7	995	1204	12.41%	22.21%	65.38%	-1.16	+3.3	8
2023-07-10	Daugavpils	D 0-0	48.9	1232	1276	36.63%	25.34%	38.02%	-0.03	+0.1	24
2023-07-10	@ Metta	D 0-0	48.9	1276	1232	38.02%	25.34%	36.63%	+0.03	-0.1	22
2023-07-21	Liepaja	W 3-2	59.0	1201	1413	17.55%	23.74%	58.71%	-0.83	+18.2	23
2023-07-21	@ Jelgava	L 2-3	59.0	1413	1201	58.71%	23.74%	17.55%	+0.83	-18.2	31
2023-07-21	Metta	L 1-3	38.0	998	1232	15.89%	23.34%	60.76%	-0.93	-11.2	8
2023-07-21	@ Super Nova	W 3-1	38.0	1232	998	60.76%	23.34%	15.89%	+0.93	+11.2	27
2023-07-22	Daugavpils	L 0-1	54.4	1531	1276	68.92%	21.09%	9.99%	+1.38	-23.5	34
2023-07-22	@ Valmiera	W 1-0	54.4	1276	1531	9.99%	21.09%	68.92%	-1.38	+23.5	25
2023-07-23	FK RFS	L 2-5	47.6	1353	1694	9.61%	20.87%	69.52%	-1.44	-8.3	31
2023-07-23	@ Auda	W 5-2	47.6	1694	1353	69.52%	20.87%	9.61%	+1.44	+8.3	55
2023-07-23	Riga FC	L 0-6	33.6	1253	1693	6.05%	18.16%	75.79%	-1.90	-13.2	23
2023-07-23	@ Tukums 2000	W 6-0	33.6	1693	1253	75.79%	18.16%	6.05%	+1.90	+13.2	58
2023-07-26	Liepaja	D 1-1	54.0	1243	1395	23.20%	24.65%	52.15%	-0.54	+2.3	28
2023-07-26	@ Metta	D 1-1	54.0	1395	1243	52.15%	24.65%	23.20%	+0.54	-2.3	32
2023-07-29	Tukums 2000	W 7-0	32.4	1703	1240	80.99%	15.26%	3.75%	+2.36	+8.9	58
2023-07-29	@ FK RFS	L 0-7	32.4	1240	1703	3.75%	15.26%	80.99%	-2.36	-8.9	23
2023-07-30	Daugavpils	W 3-0	35.7	1706	1299	78.24%	16.87%	4.89%	+2.10	+5.4	61
2023-07-30	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	35.7	1299	1706	4.89%	16.87%	78.24%	-2.10	-5.4	25
2023-07-30	Liepaja	D 1-1	55.0	1344	1393	35.99%	25.34%	38.67%	-0.05	+0.2	32
2023-07-30	@ Auda	D 1-1	55.0	1393	1344	38.67%	25.34%	35.99%	+0.05	-0.2	33
2023-07-31	Jelgava	L 0-1	45.4	1246	1219	46.36%	25.11%	28.54%	+0.30	-16.5	28
2023-07-31	@ Metta	W 1-0	45.4	1219	1246	28.54%	25.11%	46.36%	-0.30	+16.5	26
2023-08-05	Liepaja	L 1-2	43.6	1231	1393	22.18%	24.53%	53.29%	-0.59	-8.7	23
2023-08-05	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-1	43.6	1393	1231	53.29%	24.53%	22.18%	+0.59	+8.7	36
2023-08-06	Jelgava	W 3-0	33.0	1345	1235	56.09%	24.16%	19.74%	+0.69	+22.8	35
2023-08-06	@ Auda	L 0-3	33.0	1235	1345	19.74%	24.16%	56.09%	-0.69	-22.8	26
2023-08-06	Metta	W 2-1	39.7	1507	1229	70.55%	20.48%	8.96%	+1.49	+3.6	37
2023-08-06	@ Valmiera	L 1-2	39.7	1229	1507	8.96%	20.48%	70.55%	-1.49	-3.6	28
2023-08-06	Riga FC	L 1-5	27.5	987	1712	1.51%	10.40%	88.09%	-3.25	-1.6	8
2023-08-06	@ Super Nova	W 5-1	27.5	1712	987	88.09%	10.40%	1.51%	+3.25	+1.6	64
2023-08-08	FK RFS	L 0-1	41.4	1294	1712	6.72%	18.80%	74.48%	-1.80	-2.8	25
2023-08-08	@ Daugavpils	W 1-0	41.4	1712	1294	74.48%	18.80%	6.72%	+1.80	+2.8	61
2023-08-12	Auda	D 2-2	58.8	1222	1367	23.89%	24.73%	51.38%	-0.51	+1.6	24
2023-08-12	@ Tukums 2000	D 2-2	58.8	1367	1222	51.38%	24.73%	23.89%	+0.51	-1.6	36
2023-08-12	Daugavpils	W 2-1	43.4	1401	1291	56.20%	24.15%	19.65%	+0.69	+7.8	39
2023-08-12	@ Liepaja	L 1-2	43.4	1291	1401	19.65%	24.15%	56.20%	-0.69	-7.8	25
2023-08-13	Jelgava	D 2-2	61.6	1511	1212	71.90%	19.94%	8.16%	+1.58	-4.0	38
2023-08-13	@ Valmiera	D 2-2	61.6	1212	1511	8.16%	19.94%	71.90%	-1.58	+4.0	27
2023-08-13	Metta	W 1-0	36.7	1713	1225	82.13%	14.55%	3.32%	+2.48	+1.3	67
2023-08-13	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	36.7	1225	1713	3.32%	14.55%	82.13%	-2.48	-1.3	28
2023-08-13	Super Nova	W 5-0	22.8	1714	985	90.43%	8.58%	0.99%	+3.62	+1.5	64
2023-08-13	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	22.8	985	1714	0.99%	8.58%	90.43%	-3.62	-1.5	8
2023-08-26	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	38.7	1216	1224	41.80%	25.29%	32.91%	+0.14	+23.9	30
2023-08-26	@ Jelgava	L 0-2	38.7	1224	1216	32.91%	25.29%	41.80%	-0.14	-23.9	24
2023-08-26	Valmiera	W 3-0	46.3	1715	1507	65.24%	22.25%	12.50%	+1.15	+14.9	70
2023-08-26	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	46.3	1507	1715	12.50%	22.25%	65.24%	-1.15	-14.9	38
2023-08-27	Auda	L 0-2	39.3	1283	1366	31.32%	25.24%	43.44%	-0.22	-23.0	25
2023-08-27	@ Daugavpils	W 2-0	39.3	1366	1283	43.44%	25.24%	31.32%	+0.22	+23.0	39
2023-08-27	Metta	W 5-0	31.1	1716	1224	82.30%	14.44%	3.26%	+2.50	+5.5	67
2023-08-27	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	31.1	1224	1716	3.26%	14.44%	82.30%	-2.50	-5.5	28
2023-08-28	Liepaja	L 0-2	28.7	984	1409	6.49%	18.58%	74.93%	-1.83	-5.1	8
2023-08-28	@ Super Nova	W 2-0	28.7	1409	984	74.93%	18.58%	6.49%	+1.83	+5.1	42
2023-09-01	Daugavpils	W 3-0	39.1	1200	1260	34.33%	25.32%	40.35%	-0.11	+40.5	27
2023-09-01	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-3	39.1	1260	1200	40.35%	25.32%	34.33%	+0.11	-40.5	25
2023-09-01	Jelgava	L 3-5	69.9	1729	1240	82.18%	14.52%	3.30%	+2.48	-36.7	70
2023-09-01	@ Riga FC	W 5-3	69.9	1240	1729	3.30%	14.52%	82.18%	-2.48	+36.7	33
2023-09-02	FK RFS	W 1-0	65.3	1492	1721	16.26%	23.44%	60.30%	-0.91	+20.9	41
2023-09-02	@ Valmiera	L 0-1	65.3	1721	1492	60.30%	23.44%	16.26%	+0.91	-20.9	67
2023-09-02	Liepaja	D 1-1	54.1	1218	1414	18.99%	24.03%	56.98%	-0.75	+3.0	29
2023-09-02	@ Metta	D 1-1	54.1	1414	1218	56.98%	24.03%	18.99%	+0.75	-3.0	43
2023-09-02	Super Nova	W 1-0	30.2	1389	979	78.40%	16.78%	4.82%	+2.11	+2.0	42
2023-09-02	@ Auda	L 0-1	30.2	979	1389	4.82%	16.78%	78.40%	-2.11	-2.0	8
2023-09-15	Metta	W 3-1	38.6	1391	1222	61.96%	23.08%	14.95%	+0.97	+10.5	45
2023-09-15	@ Auda	L 1-3	38.6	1222	1391	14.95%	23.08%	61.96%	-0.97	-10.5	29
2023-09-16	Daugavpils	D 0-0	49.0	1277	1220	50.21%	24.84%	24.96%	+0.45	-2.2	34
2023-09-16	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	49.0	1220	1277	24.96%	24.84%	50.21%	-0.45	+2.2	26
2023-09-16	Riga FC	D 0-0	67.5	1701	1693	43.85%	25.22%	30.92%	+0.21	-1.1	68
2023-09-16	@ FK RFS	D 0-0	67.5	1693	1701	30.92%	25.22%	43.85%	-0.21	+1.1	71
2023-09-17	Super Nova	W 1-0	32.8	1240	977	69.52%	20.87%	9.61%	+1.42	+4.1	30
2023-09-17	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-1	32.8	977	1240	9.61%	20.87%	69.52%	-1.42	-4.1	8
2023-09-17	Valmiera	L 1-4	47.2	1411	1513	28.88%	25.13%	45.99%	-0.31	-26.4	43
2023-09-17	@ Liepaja	W 4-1	47.2	1513	1411	45.99%	25.13%	28.88%	+0.31	+26.4	44
2023-09-23	Daugavpils	L 0-1	35.0	972	1222	14.81%	23.04%	62.15%	-1.00	-6.4	8
2023-09-23	@ Super Nova	W 1-0	35.0	1222	972	62.15%	23.04%	14.81%	+1.00	+6.4	29
2023-09-23	Tukums 2000	D 1-1	52.9	1211	1245	38.11%	25.34%	36.55%	+0.02	-0.1	30
2023-09-23	@ Metta	D 1-1	52.9	1245	1211	36.55%	25.34%	38.11%	-0.02	+0.1	31
2023-09-24	Auda	L 1-2	61.1	1540	1401	59.04%	23.68%	17.28%	+0.83	-19.3	44
2023-09-24	@ Valmiera	W 2-1	61.1	1401	1540	17.28%	23.68%	59.04%	-0.83	+19.3	48
2023-09-24	FK RFS	L 0-1	40.2	1275	1699	6.51%	18.61%	74.88%	-1.83	-2.7	34
2023-09-24	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	40.2	1699	1275	74.88%	18.61%	6.51%	+1.83	+2.7	71
2023-09-25	Liepaja	W 3-1	47.2	1694	1385	72.58%	19.66%	7.77%	+1.63	+5.4	74
2023-09-25	@ Riga FC	L 1-3	47.2	1385	1694	7.77%	19.66%	72.58%	-1.63	-5.4	43
2023-09-27	Super Nova	D 1-1	56.7	1520	966	84.86%	12.74%	2.40%	+2.79	-6.7	45
2023-09-27	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	56.7	966	1520	2.40%	12.74%	84.86%	-2.79	+6.7	9
2023-09-29	Metta	W 4-2	46.8	1228	1211	45.12%	25.17%	29.71%	+0.26	+17.1	32
2023-09-29	@ Daugavpils	L 2-4	46.8	1211	1228	29.71%	25.17%	45.12%	-0.26	-17.1	30
2023-09-30	Liepaja	W 3-1	47.1	1702	1379	73.45%	19.27%	7.28%	+1.70	+5.0	74
2023-09-30	@ FK RFS	L 1-3	47.1	1379	1702	7.28%	19.27%	73.45%	-1.70	-5.0	43
2023-09-30	Riga FC	L 0-1	48.4	1421	1699	12.91%	22.41%	64.68%	-1.14	-5.6	48
2023-09-30	@ Auda	W 1-0	48.4	1699	1421	64.68%	22.41%	12.91%	+1.14	+5.6	77
2023-10-01	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.6	973	1272	11.71%	21.93%	66.36%	-1.24	+4.6	10
2023-10-01	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.6	1272	973	66.36%	21.93%	11.71%	+1.24	-4.6	35
2023-10-01	Valmiera	W 3-2	62.0	1245	1513	13.52%	22.63%	63.86%	-1.10	+19.7	34
2023-10-01	@ Tukums 2000	L 2-3	62.0	1513	1245	63.86%	22.63%	13.52%	+1.10	-19.7	45
2023-10-06	Tukums 2000	W 4-0	33.0	1705	1264	79.92%	15.91%	4.17%	+2.25	+5.9	80
2023-10-06	@ Riga FC	L 0-4	33.0	1264	1705	4.17%	15.91%	79.92%	-2.25	-5.9	34
2023-10-07	Auda	W 3-0	41.9	1707	1415	71.48%	20.12%	8.41%	+1.55	+9.9	77
2023-10-07	@ FK RFS	L 0-3	41.9	1415	1707	8.41%	20.12%	71.48%	-1.55	-9.9	48
2023-10-07	Jelgava	D 1-1	54.2	1374	1268	55.81%	24.20%	19.98%	+0.68	-2.8	44
2023-10-07	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	54.2	1268	1374	19.98%	24.20%	55.81%	-0.68	+2.8	36
2023-10-07	Valmiera	D 0-0	51.6	1245	1494	14.86%	23.06%	62.08%	-1.00	+4.3	33
2023-10-07	@ Daugavpils	D 0-0	51.6	1494	1245	62.08%	23.06%	14.86%	+1.00	-4.3	46
2023-10-08	Super Nova	L 0-1	50.0	1194	977	65.96%	22.05%	11.99%	+1.20	-22.7	30
2023-10-08	@ Metta	W 1-0	50.0	977	1194	11.99%	22.05%	65.96%	-1.20	+22.7	13
2023-10-21	Auda	D 1-1	55.7	1371	1405	38.09%	25.34%	36.57%	+0.01	-0.1	45
2023-10-21	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	55.7	1405	1371	36.57%	25.34%	38.09%	-0.01	+0.1	49
2023-10-21	FK RFS	L 4-5	53.5	1258	1717	5.54%	17.63%	76.83%	-1.99	-2.0	34
2023-10-21	@ Tukums 2000	W 5-4	53.5	1717	1258	76.83%	17.63%	5.54%	+1.99	+2.0	80
2023-10-21	Riga FC	L 0-2	36.4	1250	1711	5.48%	17.56%	76.96%	-2.00	-4.2	33
2023-10-21	@ Daugavpils	W 2-0	36.4	1711	1250	76.96%	17.56%	5.48%	+2.00	+4.2	83
2023-10-22	Jelgava	L 0-1	40.2	1171	1270	29.20%	25.14%	45.66%	-0.30	-11.5	30
2023-10-22	@ Metta	W 1-0	40.2	1270	1171	45.66%	25.14%	29.20%	+0.30	+11.5	39
2023-10-22	Valmiera	L 0-2	27.9	1000	1489	4.79%	16.74%	78.47%	-2.14	-3.7	13
2023-10-22	@ Super Nova	W 2-0	27.9	1489	1000	78.47%	16.74%	4.79%	+2.14	+3.7	49
2023-10-28	Auda	L 0-2	38.1	1282	1405	26.34%	24.96%	48.71%	-0.41	-20.0	39
2023-10-28	@ Jelgava	W 2-0	38.1	1405	1282	48.71%	24.96%	26.34%	+0.41	+20.0	52
2023-10-28	Tukums 2000	W 1-0	37.7	1371	1256	56.68%	24.08%	19.24%	+0.72	+8.1	48
2023-10-28	@ Liepaja	L 0-1	37.7	1256	1371	19.24%	24.08%	56.68%	-0.72	-8.1	34
2023-10-29	Daugavpils	W 3-1	40.4	1719	1245	81.49%	14.96%	3.56%	+2.41	+2.3	83
2023-10-29	@ FK RFS	L 1-3	40.4	1245	1719	3.56%	14.96%	81.49%	-2.41	-2.3	33
2023-10-29	Super Nova	D 1-1	59.6	1715	996	90.16%	8.80%	1.04%	+3.57	-7.0	84
2023-10-29	@ Riga FC	D 1-1	59.6	996	1715	1.04%	8.80%	90.16%	-3.57	+7.0	14
2023-10-29	Valmiera	W 4-1	52.2	1160	1493	9.98%	21.08%	68.94%	-1.40	+54.4	33
2023-10-29	@ Metta	L 1-4	52.2	1493	1160	68.94%	21.08%	9.98%	+1.40	-54.4	49
2023-11-05	FK RFS	L 0-4	24.0	1003	1721	1.56%	10.57%	87.87%	-3.22	-2.0	14
2023-11-05	@ Super Nova	W 4-0	24.0	1721	1003	87.87%	10.57%	1.56%	+3.22	+2.0	86
2023-11-05	Liepaja	W 2-1	52.1	1243	1379	24.86%	24.83%	50.32%	-0.47	+16.7	36
2023-11-05	@ Daugavpils	L 1-2	52.1	1379	1243	50.32%	24.83%	24.86%	+0.47	-16.7	48
2023-11-05	Riga FC	L 1-3	39.7	1214	1708	4.69%	16.61%	78.70%	-2.16	-3.1	33
2023-11-05	@ Metta	W 3-1	39.7	1708	1214	78.70%	16.61%	4.69%	+2.16	+3.1	87
2023-11-05	Tukums 2000	W 1-0	36.4	1425	1248	62.65%	22.92%	14.42%	+1.01	+6.2	55
2023-11-05	@ Auda	L 0-1	36.4	1248	1425	14.42%	22.92%	62.65%	-1.01	-6.2	34
2023-11-05	Valmiera	L 0-1	39.0	1262	1439	20.72%	24.32%	54.96%	-0.66	-8.7	39
2023-11-05	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	39.0	1439	1262	54.96%	24.32%	20.72%	+0.66	+8.7	52
2023-11-11	Daugavpils	W 1-0	36.7	1432	1260	62.18%	23.03%	14.78%	+0.98	+6.4	58
2023-11-11	@ Auda	L 0-1	36.7	1260	1432	14.78%	23.03%	62.18%	-0.98	-6.4	36
2023-11-11	Jelgava	D 0-0	48.9	1242	1253	41.25%	25.30%	33.44%	+0.12	-0.6	35
2023-11-11	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	48.9	1253	1242	33.44%	25.30%	41.25%	-0.12	+0.7	40
2023-11-11	Metta	W 1-0	36.2	1723	1211	83.18%	13.87%	2.95%	+2.59	+1.1	89
2023-11-11	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	36.2	1211	1723	2.95%	13.87%	83.18%	-2.59	-1.1	33
2023-11-11	Riga FC	D 1-1	68.7	1447	1711	13.84%	22.74%	63.42%	-1.07	+4.1	53
2023-11-11	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	68.7	1711	1447	63.42%	22.74%	13.84%	+1.07	-4.1	88
2023-11-11	Super Nova	W 2-0	28.4	1363	1001	75.74%	18.19%	6.08%	+1.88	+4.8	51
2023-11-11	@ Liepaja	L 0-2	28.4	1001	1363	6.08%	18.19%	75.74%	-1.88	-4.8	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-09-01	3.30%	Jelgava	1240	5	@ Riga FC	1729	3
2	2023-04-16	4.62%	@ Super Nova	1120	1	Valmiera	1617	0
3	2023-06-05	8.20%	@ Jelgava	1180	2	Valmiera	1556	0
4	2023-10-29	9.98%	@ Metta	1160	4	Valmiera	1493	1
5	2023-07-22	9.99%	Daugavpils	1276	1	@ Valmiera	1531	0
6	2023-10-08	11.99%	Super Nova	977	1	@ Metta	1194	0
7	2023-10-01	13.52%	@ Tukums 2000	1245	3	Valmiera	1513	2
8	2023-05-22	14.36%	@ Jelgava	1191	2	Liepaja	1447	1
9	2023-06-01	15.16%	Tukums 2000	1250	1	@ Liepaja	1416	0
10	2023-09-02	16.26%	@ Valmiera	1492	1	FK RFS	1721	0
11	2023-03-18	16.98%	Liepaja	1472	1	@ Valmiera	1614	0
12	2023-09-24	17.28%	Auda	1401	2	@ Valmiera	1540	1
13	2023-07-21	17.55%	@ Jelgava	1201	3	Liepaja	1413	2
14	2023-04-24	18.00%	Tukums 2000	1221	3	@ Auda	1350	0
15	2023-06-09	19.48%	@ Valmiera	1510	1	Riga FC	1700	0
16	2023-04-02	23.38%	Metta	1201	2	@ Tukums 2000	1273	1
17	2023-11-05	24.86%	@ Daugavpils	1243	2	Liepaja	1379	1
18	2023-03-19	25.75%	@ Super Nova	1178	2	Tukums 2000	1306	0
19	2023-07-31	28.54%	Jelgava	1219	1	@ Metta	1246	0
20	2023-04-15	34.29%	@ Jelgava	1204	2	Metta	1265	1
21	2023-09-01	34.33%	@ Tukums 2000	1200	3	Daugavpils	1260	0
22	2023-03-17	36.33%	@ Jelgava	1180	2	Daugavpils	1226	1
23	2023-06-26	36.55%	@ Daugavpils	1247	3	Tukums 2000	1291	1
24	2023-05-09	36.88%	Metta	1247	3	@ Jelgava	1212	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-04-24	55.34	Tukums 2000	3	1221	18.00%	@ Auda	0	1350	58.17%	23.84%
2	2023-10-29	54.39	@ Metta	4	1160	9.98%	Valmiera	1	1493	68.94%	21.08%
3	2023-06-05	45.94	@ Jelgava	2	1180	8.20%	Valmiera	0	1556	71.82%	19.97%
4	2023-05-14	42.81	Daugavpils	4	1195	44.22%	@ Super Nova	0	1107	30.57%	25.21%
5	2023-09-01	40.51	@ Tukums 2000	3	1200	34.33%	Daugavpils	0	1260	40.35%	25.32%
6	2023-04-01	37.53	Riga FC	3	1538	38.17%	@ Liepaja	0	1493	36.49%	25.34%
7	2023-09-01	36.72	Jelgava	5	1240	3.30%	@ Riga FC	3	1729	82.18%	14.52%
8	2023-05-12	36.24	Riga FC	4	1646	50.33%	@ Liepaja	0	1509	24.85%	24.83%
9	2023-05-07	35.78	Liepaja	4	1473	50.74%	@ Auda	0	1334	24.47%	24.79%
10	2023-04-11	34.10	Metta	3	1230	42.55%	@ Super Nova	0	1154	32.18%	25.27%
11	2023-04-01	33.75	@ Daugavpils	3	1212	42.99%	Super Nova	0	1211	31.76%	25.26%
12	2023-04-30	33.19	@ Riga FC	3	1606	43.70%	Valmiera	0	1600	31.07%	25.23%
13	2023-03-19	32.89	@ Super Nova	2	1178	25.75%	Tukums 2000	0	1306	49.34%	24.91%
14	2023-04-02	27.00	Valmiera	4	1594	58.54%	@ Auda	0	1382	17.69%	23.77%
15	2023-09-17	26.42	Valmiera	4	1513	45.99%	@ Liepaja	1	1411	28.88%	25.13%
16	2023-05-17	26.39	FK RFS	3	1623	51.92%	@ Liepaja	0	1473	23.40%	24.68%
17	2023-07-07	26.11	@ Valmiera	6	1505	66.71%	Tukums 2000	0	1279	11.47%	21.82%
18	2023-04-16	26.01	@ Super Nova	1	1120	4.62%	Valmiera	0	1617	78.86%	16.52%
19	2023-06-25	24.94	Auda	5	1317	64.52%	@ Super Nova	0	1040	13.03%	22.45%
20	2023-08-26	23.89	@ Jelgava	2	1216	41.80%	Tukums 2000	0	1224	32.91%	25.29%
21	2023-04-28	23.58	Auda	2	1295	42.36%	@ Daugavpils	0	1220	32.36%	25.27%
22	2023-07-22	23.55	Daugavpils	1	1276	9.99%	@ Valmiera	0	1531	68.92%	21.09%
23	2023-06-26	23.11	@ Daugavpils	3	1247	36.55%	Tukums 2000	1	1291	38.10%	25.34%
24	2023-08-27	23.00	Auda	2	1366	43.44%	@ Daugavpils	0	1283	31.32%	25.24%
25	2023-05-26	22.92	@ Daugavpils	5	1235	45.92%	Jelgava	2	1211	28.95%	25.13%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-06-30	76.6	@ Riga FC	2	1684	40.97%	FK RFS	2	1697	33.72%	25.31%
2	2023-09-01	69.9	Jelgava	5	1240	3.30%	@ Riga FC	3	1729	82.18%	14.52%
3	2023-11-11	68.7	@ Valmiera	1	1447	13.84%	Riga FC	1	1711	63.42%	22.74%
4	2023-09-16	67.5	@ FK RFS	0	1701	43.85%	Riga FC	0	1693	30.92%	25.22%
5	2023-07-08	67.3	@ Liepaja	1	1409	12.24%	FK RFS	1	1699	65.61%	22.15%
6	2023-05-26	67.1	@ FK RFS	0	1654	37.30%	Riga FC	0	1693	37.35%	25.35%
7	2023-03-18	65.6	@ Riga FC	1	1538	41.70%	FK RFS	1	1546	33.01%	25.29%
8	2023-09-02	65.3	@ Valmiera	1	1492	16.26%	FK RFS	0	1721	60.30%	23.44%
9	2023-06-09	64.3	@ Valmiera	1	1510	19.48%	Riga FC	0	1700	56.40%	24.12%
10	2023-03-11	64.0	@ Valmiera	0	1617	52.03%	FK RFS	0	1544	23.31%	24.66%
11	2023-05-03	62.0	@ Daugavpils	3	1196	31.76%	Tukums 2000	3	1276	42.98%	25.26%
12	2023-10-01	62.0	@ Tukums 2000	3	1245	13.52%	Valmiera	2	1513	63.86%	22.63%
13	2023-03-18	61.6	Liepaja	1	1472	16.98%	@ Valmiera	0	1614	59.40%	23.61%
14	2023-08-13	61.6	@ Valmiera	2	1511	71.90%	Jelgava	2	1212	8.16%	19.94%
15	2023-09-24	61.1	Auda	2	1401	17.28%	@ Valmiera	1	1540	59.04%	23.68%
16	2023-05-04	60.0	@ FK RFS	2	1585	45.31%	Valmiera	1	1567	29.53%	25.16%
17	2023-06-29	60.0	@ Valmiera	1	1510	54.81%	Liepaja	1	1413	20.85%	24.34%
18	2023-10-29	59.6	@ Riga FC	1	1715	90.16%	Super Nova	1	996	1.04%	8.80%
19	2023-04-11	59.3	@ Daugavpils	1	1234	7.70%	Valmiera	1	1623	72.69%	19.61%
20	2023-07-21	59.0	@ Jelgava	3	1201	17.55%	Liepaja	2	1413	58.71%	23.74%
21	2023-05-12	58.9	@ Valmiera	1	1558	69.28%	Auda	1	1298	9.76%	20.96%
22	2023-08-12	58.8	@ Tukums 2000	2	1222	23.89%	Auda	2	1367	51.38%	24.73%
23	2023-07-09	58.7	@ Jelgava	2	1204	65.38%	Super Nova	2	995	12.41%	22.21%
24	2023-06-06	58.6	@ Tukums 2000	2	1271	36.08%	Auda	2	1319	38.58%	25.34%
25	2023-04-15	58.4	@ Daugavpils	1	1239	9.08%	Riga FC	1	1593	70.37%	20.56%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-08-13	22.8	@ FK RFS	5	1714	90.43%	Super Nova	0	985	0.99%	8.58%
2	2023-11-05	24.0	FK RFS	4	1721	87.87%	@ Super Nova	0	1003	1.56%	10.57%
3	2023-08-06	27.5	Riga FC	5	1712	88.09%	@ Super Nova	1	987	1.51%	10.40%
4	2023-06-04	27.6	FK RFS	6	1658	84.06%	@ Super Nova	1	1046	2.65%	13.29%
5	2023-04-20	27.7	Riga FC	4	1588	75.88%	@ Super Nova	0	1146	6.01%	18.11%
6	2023-10-22	27.9	Valmiera	2	1489	78.47%	@ Super Nova	0	1000	4.79%	16.74%
7	2023-05-31	28.1	@ Riga FC	5	1693	88.06%	Super Nova	1	1047	1.51%	10.43%
8	2023-11-11	28.4	@ Liepaja	2	1363	75.74%	Super Nova	0	1001	6.08%	18.19%
9	2023-05-13	28.5	@ FK RFS	4	1616	78.76%	Jelgava	0	1199	4.66%	16.57%
10	2023-08-28	28.7	Liepaja	2	1409	74.93%	@ Super Nova	0	984	6.49%	18.58%
11	2023-06-25	28.8	Auda	5	1317	64.52%	@ Super Nova	0	1040	13.03%	22.45%
12	2023-07-05	30.2	@ Daugavpils	2	1268	69.66%	Super Nova	0	1002	9.52%	20.82%
13	2023-09-02	30.2	@ Auda	1	1389	78.40%	Super Nova	0	979	4.82%	16.78%
14	2023-04-25	30.3	@ Riga FC	4	1597	75.11%	Metta	0	1246	6.39%	18.49%
15	2023-08-27	31.1	@ FK RFS	5	1716	82.30%	Metta	0	1224	3.26%	14.44%
16	2023-04-19	31.5	FK RFS	5	1570	68.34%	@ Daugavpils	0	1245	10.37%	21.29%
17	2023-07-07	31.6	@ Valmiera	6	1505	66.71%	Tukums 2000	0	1279	11.47%	21.82%
18	2023-04-24	32.0	@ Valmiera	2	1595	76.53%	Jelgava	0	1220	5.69%	17.78%
19	2023-04-01	32.4	FK RFS	2	1547	70.38%	@ Jelgava	0	1193	9.07%	20.55%
20	2023-07-29	32.4	@ FK RFS	7	1703	80.99%	Tukums 2000	0	1240	3.75%	15.26%
21	2023-09-17	32.8	@ Tukums 2000	1	1240	69.52%	Super Nova	0	977	9.61%	20.87%
22	2023-08-06	33.0	@ Auda	3	1345	56.09%	Jelgava	0	1235	19.74%	24.16%
23	2023-10-06	33.0	@ Riga FC	4	1705	79.92%	Tukums 2000	0	1264	4.17%	15.91%
24	2023-03-11	33.2	@ Auda	2	1351	61.18%	Super Nova	0	1190	15.56%	23.26%
25	2023-04-18	33.5	Liepaja	3	1441	57.23%	@ Tukums 2000	0	1243	18.78%	23.99%