2024 Virsliga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

FK RFS

90 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Riga FC

7.79 points above expected

87 points · 79.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Grobina

11.05 points below expected

29 points · 40.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	FK RFS	36	29	3	4	90	103	25	+78	83.29	+6.71
2	Riga FC	36	27	6	3	87	99	23	+76	79.21	+7.79
3	Auda	36	18	6	12	60	63	34	+29	58.81	+1.19
4	Valmiera*	36	19	7	10	55	75	39	+36	56.58	-1.58
5	Daugavpils	36	11	9	16	42	43	60	-17	41.58	+0.42
6	Liepaja	36	10	9	17	39	37	56	-19	41.31	-2.31
7	Metta	36	10	6	20	36	34	76	-42	32.69	+3.31
8	Tukums 2000	36	9	8	19	35	38	81	-43	35.09	-0.09
9	Grobina	36	8	5	23	29	34	78	-44	40.05	-11.05
10	Jelgava	36	6	7	23	25	28	82	-54	30.73	-5.73

* Point deductions: Valmiera (-9 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Riga FC	87	79.21	+7.79
2	FK RFS	90	83.29	+6.71
3	Metta	36	32.69	+3.31
4	Auda	60	58.81	+1.19
5	Daugavpils	42	41.58	+0.42

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Grobina	29	40.05	-11.05
2	Jelgava	25	30.73	-5.73
3	Liepaja	39	41.31	-2.31
4	Valmiera	55	56.58	-1.58
5	Tukums 2000	35	35.09	-0.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Auda	5	Oct 17 – Nov 9	1 in 36
2	Grobina	3	Jun 27 – Jul 8	1 in 31
3	Liepaja	4	Aug 10 – Sep 15	1 in 26
4	Valmiera	7	May 15 – Jun 20	1 in 25
5	Daugavpils	4	May 3 – May 16	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Grobina	11	Aug 11 – Nov 9	1 in 1,779
2	Daugavpils	5	Jul 7 – Aug 24	1 in 31
3	Liepaja	5	Jun 20 – Jul 21	1 in 28
4	Auda	4	Jun 21 – Jul 6	1 in 21
5	Jelgava	5	May 3 – May 19	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Riga FC	27	May 2 – Nov 10	1 in 105
2	Valmiera	11	Apr 27 – Jun 20	1 in 53
3	Grobina	4	Jun 27 – Jul 21	1 in 23
4	Liepaja	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 21
5	Auda	8	Jul 21 – Oct 2	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Grobina	11	Aug 11 – Nov 9	1 in 53
2	Liepaja	9	Apr 18 – May 24	1 in 37
3	Auda	6	May 1 – May 23	1 in 34
4	Valmiera	3	Apr 5 – Apr 14	1 in 11
5	Daugavpils	8	Sep 17 – Nov 9	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
FK RFS	1653	90	-18	9	11.7	-2.7
Riga FC	1654	87	+31	15	11.6	+3.4
Valmiera	1445	64	-21	7	11.5	-4.5
Auda	1454	60	+49	15	9.5	+5.5
Daugavpils	1229	42	-15	2	3.3	-1.3
Liepaja	1275	39	+36	11	6.9	+4.1
Metta	1174	36	-2	6	3.9	+2.1
Tukums 2000	1172	35	-15	3	3.1	-0.1
Grobina	1135	29	-48	0	4.8	-4.8
Jelgava	1114	25	+11	4	3.0	+1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AUD	DAU	FR	GRO	JEL	LIE	MET	RIG	T2	VAL
Auda	—	4-0-0 7.27	1-0-3 2.52	1-2-1 7.74	2-1-1 8.64	1-1-2 7.81	4-0-0 8.52	0-1-3 2.82	3-1-0 8.29	2-0-2 4.52
Daugavpils	0-0-4 3.98	—	0-1-3 1.72	3-0-1 5.80	2-2-0 6.73	0-3-1 5.73	2-1-1 6.80	0-0-4 1.91	3-1-0 6.37	1-1-2 2.97
FK RFS	3-0-1 8.78	3-1-0 9.67	—	4-0-0 10.01	4-0-0 10.29	4-0-0 9.84	4-0-0 10.19	1-2-1 6.20	4-0-0 10.07	2-0-2 8.25
Grobina	1-2-1 3.52	1-0-3 5.43	0-0-4 1.42	—	1-0-3 6.83	2-0-2 5.46	1-1-2 6.17	0-0-4 1.83	2-0-2 6.09	0-2-2 2.80
Jelgava	1-1-2 2.66	0-2-2 4.50	0-0-4 1.18	3-0-1 4.40	—	1-2-1 4.04	1-0-3 5.29	0-0-4 1.29	0-2-2 4.94	0-0-4 2.17
Liepaja	2-1-1 3.45	1-3-0 5.49	0-0-4 1.56	2-0-2 5.76	1-2-1 7.20	—	1-0-3 6.92	0-1-3 1.69	1-1-2 6.44	2-1-1 2.81
Metta	0-0-4 2.77	1-1-2 4.43	0-0-4 1.26	2-1-1 5.06	3-0-1 5.94	3-0-1 4.32	—	0-0-4 1.38	1-3-0 5.32	0-1-3 2.46
Riga FC	3-1-0 8.46	4-0-0 9.45	1-2-1 5.02	4-0-0 9.53	4-0-0 10.16	3-1-0 9.69	4-0-0 10.05	—	3-0-1 9.95	1-2-1 7.79
Tukums 2000	0-1-3 2.99	0-1-3 4.86	0-0-4 1.37	2-0-2 5.14	2-2-0 6.28	2-1-1 4.79	0-3-1 5.91	1-0-3 1.47	—	2-0-2 2.41
Valmiera	2-0-2 6.71	2-1-1 8.31	2-0-2 3.02	2-2-0 8.48	4-0-0 9.17	1-1-2 8.48	3-1-0 8.86	1-2-1 3.46	2-0-2 8.91	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.96	+8.0
Allowed	0.87	-9.1
Differential	0.95	+4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	6.67%	6.11%	4.72%	2.78%	2.78%	29.72%
1	6.67%	7.22%	7.50%	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%	28.89%
2	6.11%	7.50%	2.78%	2.22%	0.56%	—	19.17%
3	4.72%	2.50%	2.22%	1.67%	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	2.50%	0.56%	—	—	—	5.83%
5+	2.78%	2.50%	—	—	—	—	5.28%
Total	29.72%	28.89%	19.17%	11.11%	5.83%	5.28%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	1.54	+0.00
SD	1.55	1.55	2.50
CV	1.01	1.01	—
Max	10	10	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
1	5.56%	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
2	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
4	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	33.33%	41.67%	22.22%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	0.94	+0.81
SD	1.36	0.83	1.80
CV	0.78	0.87	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	5.56%	41.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	5.56%	2.78%	27.78%
2	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
3	2.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
4	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.67	-0.47
SD	1.35	1.67	2.36
CV	1.13	1.00	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
1	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	—	—	—	30.56%
3	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
4	2.78%	13.89%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
Total	41.67%	47.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.86	0.69	+2.17
SD	1.73	0.67	2.06
CV	0.60	0.96	—
Max	7	2	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	2.78%	19.44%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	41.67%
1	5.56%	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	36.11%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	16.67%	38.89%	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	2.17	-1.22
SD	1.07	1.54	2.14
CV	1.13	0.71	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	50.00%
1	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	8.33%	27.78%
2	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	25.00%	8.33%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	2.28	-1.50
SD	0.93	1.80	2.01
CV	1.19	0.79	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	38.89%
1	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	33.33%
2	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	30.56%	19.44%	16.67%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	1.56	-0.53
SD	1.06	1.34	1.84
CV	1.03	0.86	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	13.89%	8.33%	44.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	2.78%	30.56%
2	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	19.44%	27.78%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	2.11	-1.17
SD	1.15	1.75	2.46
CV	1.21	0.83	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
1	16.67%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	30.56%
2	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	30.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	55.56%	25.00%	19.44%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.75	0.64	+2.11
SD	2.12	0.80	2.29
CV	0.77	1.25	—
Max	10	2	+9
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	22.22%	22.22%	13.89%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	2.25	-1.19
SD	0.98	2.09	2.34
CV	0.93	0.93	—
Max	3	10	+2
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	22.22%
2	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	27.78%
3	8.33%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
4	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	36.11%	38.89%	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	1.08	+1.00
SD	1.59	1.13	2.04
CV	0.76	1.04	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Riga FC	1654	87	79.21	+7.79	84.0%	60	65	73	79	85	94	96
FK RFS	1653	90	83.29	+6.71	82.0%	64	71	79	83	88	95	100
Auda	1454	60	58.81	+1.19	61.0%	40	45	54	58	63	71	76
Valmiera	1445	55	56.58	-1.58	45.0%	33	46	52	57	61	67	71
Liepaja	1275	39	41.31	-2.31	39.0%	24	30	36	41	46	54	62
Daugavpils	1229	42	41.58	+0.42	52.0%	23	28	36	41	46	54	61
Metta	1174	36	32.69	+3.31	69.0%	12	15	29	33	37	46	49
Tukums 2000	1172	35	35.09	-0.09	52.0%	19	23	29	35	40	48	57
Grobina	1135	29	40.05	-11.05	5.0%	25	29	34	40	44	50	51
Jelgava	1114	25	30.73	-5.73	25.0%	16	18	25	30	36	43	55

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+3.89%

Slight Edge

42.78%18.33%38.89%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 13.52 Elo pts.

138 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.32 goals

Neutral

-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.7

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

69%

FK RFS, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.08/gm

Photo Finish

00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.99 * Some Luck: 5.99 to 8.99 * Lucky: 8.99 to 11.99 * Wild Swing: 11.99 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.81 * Close: 0.81 to 1.21 * Off: 1.21 to 1.61 * Way Off: 1.61 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.30 points

As Expected

07.4919

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.40

Pinpoint

01.012.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

84.00%

Riga FC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

5.00%

Grobina

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Balanced

00.240.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 207.04

2.80

Strong Separation

12.552.953.5

Interquartile Edge

83%

Slight Edge

50%82%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

96%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

51%

Frequent

0%44%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.522

Matchup Imbalance

0.48

Very Even

00.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.56

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.82

Strong Carryover

00.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Upset-Prone

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Very Shaky

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.35

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.03

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.095

Well Within Noise

00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
FK RFS	69.00%	30.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Riga FC	31.00%	64.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Auda	—	3.00%	49.00%	37.00%	8.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—
Valmiera	—	3.00%	41.00%	37.00%	13.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	1.00%
Daugavpils	—	—	2.00%	11.00%	23.00%	20.00%	16.00%	14.00%	7.00%	7.00%
Liepaja	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	19.00%	27.00%	20.00%	13.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Metta	—	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	15.00%	23.00%	21.00%	27.00%
Tukums 2000	—	—	—	3.00%	5.00%	17.00%	17.00%	23.00%	22.00%	13.00%
Grobina	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	23.00%	17.00%	22.00%	14.00%	16.00%	3.00%
Jelgava	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	9.00%	13.00%	24.00%	45.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Auda	100%	—	—
FK RFS	100%	—	—
Riga FC	100%	—	—
Valmiera	99.00%	—	1.00%
Grobina	81.00%	16.00%	3.00%
Liepaja	86.00%	10.00%	4.00%
Daugavpils	86.00%	7.00%	7.00%
Tukums 2000	65.00%	22.00%	13.00%
Metta	52.00%	21.00%	27.00%
Jelgava	31.00%	24.00%	45.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-03-08	FK RFS	L 1-2	46.7	1355	1570	17.38%	17.96%	64.66%	-1.46	-4.1	0
2024-03-08	@ Auda	W 2-1	46.7	1570	1355	64.66%	17.96%	17.38%	+1.46	+4.1	3
2024-03-09	Daugavpils	D 0-0	50.5	1227	1228	41.99%	19.44%	38.58%	+0.09	-0.2	1
2024-03-09	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	50.5	1228	1227	38.58%	19.44%	41.99%	-0.09	+0.2	1
2024-03-09	Tukums 2000	L 0-2	44.1	1306	1217	54.02%	19.04%	26.94%	+0.74	-22.0	0
2024-03-09	@ Liepaja	W 2-0	44.1	1217	1306	26.94%	19.04%	54.02%	-0.74	+22.0	3
2024-03-10	Riga FC	L 0-1	37.6	1283	1553	13.43%	17.11%	69.46%	-1.86	-3.4	0
2024-03-10	@ Grobina	W 1-0	37.6	1553	1283	69.46%	17.11%	13.43%	+1.86	+3.4	3
2024-03-10	Valmiera	L 0-2	34.4	1198	1368	21.28%	18.53%	60.20%	-1.14	-9.9	0
2024-03-10	@ Metta	W 2-0	34.4	1368	1198	60.20%	18.53%	21.28%	+1.14	+9.9	3
2024-03-15	Valmiera	L 0-1	57.1	1574	1378	65.42%	17.85%	16.74%	+1.52	-13.9	3
2024-03-15	@ FK RFS	W 1-0	57.1	1378	1574	16.74%	17.85%	65.42%	-1.52	+13.9	6
2024-03-16	Auda	W 1-0	40.7	1556	1351	66.26%	17.71%	16.03%	+1.59	+4.0	6
2024-03-16	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	40.7	1351	1556	16.03%	17.71%	66.26%	-1.59	-4.0	0
2024-03-16	Grobina	W 2-0	41.6	1228	1279	35.06%	19.39%	45.55%	-0.27	+18.9	4
2024-03-16	@ Daugavpils	L 0-2	41.6	1279	1228	45.55%	19.39%	35.06%	+0.27	-18.9	0
2024-03-16	Liepaja	W 2-0	43.2	1188	1284	29.34%	19.19%	51.47%	-0.60	+21.0	3
2024-03-16	@ Metta	L 0-2	43.2	1284	1188	51.47%	19.19%	29.34%	+0.60	-21.0	0
2024-03-17	Tukums 2000	L 2-3	52.2	1227	1239	40.46%	19.44%	40.09%	+0.01	-8.1	1
2024-03-17	@ Jelgava	W 3-2	52.2	1239	1227	40.09%	19.44%	40.46%	-0.01	+8.1	6
2024-03-29	Metta	L 0-1	43.1	1218	1209	43.51%	19.42%	37.07%	+0.16	-9.7	1
2024-03-29	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	43.1	1209	1218	37.07%	19.42%	43.51%	-0.16	+9.6	6
2024-03-30	FK RFS	L 0-3	32.6	1263	1560	11.80%	16.64%	71.56%	-2.06	-8.1	0
2024-03-30	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	32.6	1560	1263	71.56%	16.64%	11.80%	+2.06	+8.1	6
2024-03-30	Tukums 2000	W 3-1	44.8	1247	1247	42.28%	19.43%	38.28%	+0.10	+14.2	7
2024-03-30	@ Daugavpils	L 1-3	44.8	1247	1247	38.28%	19.43%	42.28%	-0.10	-14.2	6
2024-03-31	Auda	D 1-1	55.2	1260	1347	30.45%	19.24%	50.31%	-0.53	+1.0	1
2024-03-31	@ Grobina	D 1-1	55.2	1347	1260	50.31%	19.24%	30.45%	+0.53	-1.0	1
2024-03-31	Riga FC	W 2-1	60.6	1392	1560	21.47%	18.55%	59.98%	-1.12	+12.1	9
2024-03-31	@ Valmiera	L 1-2	60.6	1560	1392	59.98%	18.55%	21.47%	+1.12	-12.1	6
2024-04-03	Daugavpils	L 0-1	41.0	1219	1262	36.18%	19.41%	44.42%	-0.21	-8.3	6
2024-04-03	@ Metta	W 1-0	41.0	1262	1219	44.42%	19.41%	36.18%	+0.21	+8.3	10
2024-04-03	Jelgava	W 5-1	33.0	1568	1209	77.38%	14.94%	7.68%	+2.71	+5.7	9
2024-04-03	@ FK RFS	L 1-5	33.0	1209	1568	7.68%	14.94%	77.38%	-2.71	-5.7	1
2024-04-04	Grobina	W 2-0	40.7	1233	1261	38.12%	19.43%	42.45%	-0.11	+17.8	9
2024-04-04	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-2	40.7	1261	1233	42.45%	19.43%	38.12%	+0.11	-17.8	1
2024-04-04	Liepaja	W 4-0	30.7	1548	1255	73.22%	16.22%	10.56%	+2.23	+9.5	9
2024-04-04	@ Riga FC	L 0-4	30.7	1255	1548	10.56%	16.22%	73.22%	-2.23	-9.5	0
2024-04-05	Valmiera	W 3-1	49.4	1346	1404	34.10%	19.37%	46.54%	-0.32	+16.7	4
2024-04-05	@ Auda	L 1-3	49.4	1404	1346	46.54%	19.37%	34.10%	+0.32	-16.7	9
2024-04-07	FK RFS	D 1-1	59.8	1270	1574	11.44%	16.53%	72.04%	-2.11	+3.2	11
2024-04-07	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	59.8	1574	1270	72.04%	16.53%	11.44%	+2.11	-3.2	10
2024-04-08	Jelgava	W 2-0	31.4	1557	1203	77.10%	15.04%	7.86%	+2.67	+3.7	12
2024-04-08	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	31.4	1203	1557	7.86%	15.04%	77.10%	-2.67	-3.7	1
2024-04-08	Metta	D 0-0	50.6	1251	1211	47.74%	19.33%	32.93%	+0.39	-0.8	10
2024-04-08	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.6	1211	1251	32.93%	19.33%	47.74%	-0.39	+0.8	7
2024-04-09	Auda	W 1-0	46.9	1245	1363	26.75%	19.03%	54.21%	-0.76	+11.7	3
2024-04-09	@ Liepaja	L 0-1	46.9	1363	1245	54.21%	19.03%	26.75%	+0.76	-11.7	4
2024-04-09	Grobina	D 1-1	55.6	1387	1244	60.28%	18.52%	21.20%	+1.14	-2.0	10
2024-04-09	@ Valmiera	D 1-1	55.6	1244	1387	21.20%	18.52%	60.28%	-1.14	+2.0	2
2024-04-12	Daugavpils	W 2-0	34.3	1561	1273	72.84%	16.32%	10.83%	+2.19	+5.1	15
2024-04-12	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	34.3	1273	1561	10.83%	16.32%	72.84%	-2.19	-5.1	11
2024-04-12	Tukums 2000	W 5-0	30.3	1570	1250	75.04%	15.70%	9.26%	+2.43	+10.2	13
2024-04-12	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	30.3	1250	1570	9.26%	15.70%	75.04%	-2.43	-10.2	10
2024-04-13	Auda	D 0-0	51.1	1199	1351	23.10%	18.73%	58.18%	-1.00	+2.0	2
2024-04-13	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	51.1	1351	1199	58.18%	18.73%	23.10%	+1.00	-2.0	5
2024-04-13	Metta	W 3-0	36.1	1246	1211	46.96%	19.35%	33.68%	+0.35	+21.4	5
2024-04-13	@ Grobina	L 0-3	36.1	1211	1246	33.68%	19.35%	46.96%	-0.35	-21.4	7
2024-04-14	Liepaja	L 0-1	48.4	1385	1257	58.64%	18.68%	22.68%	+1.03	-12.6	10
2024-04-14	@ Valmiera	W 1-0	48.4	1257	1385	22.68%	18.68%	58.64%	-1.03	+12.6	6
2024-04-16	Riga FC	W 2-1	59.5	1240	1566	10.25%	16.11%	73.65%	-2.27	+14.7	13
2024-04-16	@ Tukums 2000	L 1-2	59.5	1566	1240	73.65%	16.11%	10.25%	+2.27	-14.7	15
2024-04-17	Daugavpils	W 1-0	39.1	1349	1268	53.05%	19.10%	27.85%	+0.69	+6.6	8
2024-04-17	@ Auda	L 0-1	39.1	1268	1349	27.85%	19.10%	53.05%	-0.69	-6.7	11
2024-04-17	Metta	W 2-0	31.0	1580	1190	79.12%	14.29%	6.58%	+2.93	+3.0	16
2024-04-17	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	31.0	1190	1580	6.58%	14.29%	79.12%	-2.93	-3.0	7
2024-04-18	Liepaja	W 3-2	51.9	1267	1269	41.88%	19.44%	38.68%	+0.08	+7.8	8
2024-04-18	@ Grobina	L 2-3	51.9	1269	1267	38.68%	19.44%	41.88%	-0.08	-7.8	6
2024-04-18	Valmiera	L 0-3	32.6	1201	1373	21.15%	18.51%	60.34%	-1.15	-14.2	2
2024-04-18	@ Jelgava	W 3-0	32.6	1373	1201	60.34%	18.51%	21.15%	+1.15	+14.2	13
2024-04-21	Riga FC	L 1-2	38.5	1187	1551	8.53%	15.37%	76.10%	-2.55	-2.0	7
2024-04-21	@ Metta	W 2-1	38.5	1551	1187	76.10%	15.37%	8.53%	+2.55	+2.0	18
2024-04-21	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	36.0	1356	1254	55.52%	18.94%	25.54%	+0.83	+11.6	11
2024-04-21	@ Auda	L 0-2	36.0	1254	1356	25.54%	18.94%	55.52%	-0.83	-11.6	13
2024-04-22	Daugavpils	L 0-1	48.3	1387	1261	58.32%	18.71%	22.97%	+1.01	-12.5	13
2024-04-22	@ Valmiera	W 1-0	48.3	1261	1387	22.97%	18.71%	58.32%	-1.01	+12.5	14
2024-04-23	FK RFS	L 0-4	32.4	1275	1584	11.16%	16.44%	72.40%	-2.14	-10.0	8
2024-04-23	@ Grobina	W 4-0	32.4	1584	1275	72.40%	16.44%	11.16%	+2.14	+10.0	19
2024-04-23	Jelgava	L 0-1	45.6	1262	1187	52.22%	19.15%	28.63%	+0.64	-11.3	6
2024-04-23	@ Liepaja	W 1-0	45.6	1187	1262	28.63%	19.15%	52.22%	-0.64	+11.3	5
2024-04-26	Auda	L 1-3	39.2	1185	1367	20.14%	18.38%	61.48%	-1.23	-8.1	7
2024-04-26	@ Metta	W 3-1	39.2	1367	1185	61.48%	18.38%	20.14%	+1.23	+8.1	14
2024-04-27	FK RFS	L 1-2	60.6	1553	1594	36.53%	19.41%	44.06%	-0.19	-7.9	18
2024-04-27	@ Riga FC	W 2-1	60.6	1594	1553	44.06%	19.41%	36.53%	+0.19	+7.9	22
2024-04-27	Valmiera	L 1-2	43.1	1243	1375	25.15%	18.91%	55.94%	-0.86	-5.7	13
2024-04-27	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-1	43.1	1375	1243	55.94%	18.91%	25.15%	+0.86	+5.7	16
2024-04-28	Grobina	W 2-1	49.3	1198	1265	33.01%	19.33%	47.66%	-0.38	+9.8	8
2024-04-28	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	49.3	1265	1198	47.66%	19.33%	33.01%	+0.38	-9.8	8
2024-04-28	Liepaja	D 0-0	50.7	1274	1250	45.52%	19.39%	35.09%	+0.27	-0.5	15
2024-04-28	@ Daugavpils	D 0-0	50.7	1250	1274	35.09%	19.39%	45.52%	-0.27	+0.6	7
2024-05-01	Auda	W 2-1	47.5	1601	1375	68.09%	17.39%	14.52%	+1.74	+3.4	25
2024-05-01	@ FK RFS	L 1-2	47.5	1375	1601	14.52%	17.39%	68.09%	-1.74	-3.4	14
2024-05-01	Valmiera	D 1-1	55.3	1177	1380	18.29%	18.12%	63.60%	-1.38	+2.3	8
2024-05-01	@ Metta	D 1-1	55.3	1380	1177	63.60%	18.12%	18.29%	+1.38	-2.3	17
2024-05-02	Grobina	W 2-0	33.4	1546	1255	73.03%	16.27%	10.70%	+2.21	+5.1	21
2024-05-02	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	33.4	1255	1546	10.70%	16.27%	73.03%	-2.21	-5.1	8
2024-05-02	Liepaja	D 0-0	50.6	1237	1251	40.22%	19.44%	40.34%	+0.00	+0.0	14
2024-05-02	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.6	1251	1237	40.34%	19.44%	40.22%	+0.00	-0.0	8
2024-05-03	Jelgava	W 1-0	39.0	1273	1208	51.03%	19.21%	29.76%	+0.57	+7.0	18
2024-05-03	@ Daugavpils	L 0-1	39.0	1208	1273	29.76%	19.21%	51.03%	-0.57	-7.0	8
2024-05-05	FK RFS	W 2-0	56.1	1378	1605	16.41%	17.79%	65.80%	-1.55	+26.4	20
2024-05-05	@ Valmiera	L 0-2	56.1	1605	1378	65.80%	17.79%	16.41%	+1.55	-26.4	25
2024-05-05	Riga FC	L 1-2	47.7	1372	1551	20.46%	18.43%	61.11%	-1.20	-4.8	14
2024-05-05	@ Auda	W 2-1	47.7	1551	1372	61.11%	18.43%	20.46%	+1.20	+4.8	24
2024-05-06	Metta	L 1-2	50.4	1251	1179	51.88%	19.17%	28.96%	+0.62	-10.6	8
2024-05-06	@ Liepaja	W 2-1	50.4	1179	1251	28.96%	19.17%	51.88%	-0.62	+10.6	11
2024-05-07	Daugavpils	L 1-3	44.8	1250	1280	37.88%	19.43%	42.68%	-0.12	-14.1	8
2024-05-07	@ Grobina	W 3-1	44.8	1280	1250	42.68%	19.43%	37.88%	+0.12	+14.1	21
2024-05-07	Jelgava	W 2-1	45.0	1237	1201	47.16%	19.35%	33.49%	+0.36	+7.3	17
2024-05-07	@ Tukums 2000	L 1-2	45.0	1201	1237	33.49%	19.35%	47.16%	-0.36	-7.3	8
2024-05-10	Liepaja	W 4-1	36.2	1578	1240	76.15%	15.36%	8.50%	+2.55	+4.9	28
2024-05-10	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	36.2	1240	1578	8.50%	15.36%	76.15%	-2.55	-4.9	8
2024-05-10	Valmiera	D 1-1	63.0	1555	1404	61.04%	18.43%	20.52%	+1.19	-2.1	25
2024-05-10	@ Riga FC	D 1-1	63.0	1404	1555	20.52%	18.43%	61.04%	-1.19	+2.1	21
2024-05-11	Auda	D 2-2	60.6	1236	1367	25.22%	18.92%	55.86%	-0.86	+1.1	9
2024-05-11	@ Grobina	D 2-2	60.6	1367	1236	55.86%	18.92%	25.22%	+0.86	-1.1	15
2024-05-11	Jelgava	W 3-0	37.6	1190	1194	41.62%	19.44%	38.94%	+0.07	+24.1	14
2024-05-11	@ Metta	L 0-3	37.6	1194	1190	38.94%	19.44%	41.62%	-0.07	-24.1	8
2024-05-12	Tukums 2000	W 4-1	40.8	1294	1244	49.11%	19.29%	31.61%	+0.46	+17.1	24
2024-05-12	@ Daugavpils	L 1-4	40.8	1244	1294	31.61%	19.29%	49.11%	-0.46	-17.1	17
2024-05-14	Riga FC	D 1-1	58.5	1235	1553	10.68%	16.26%	73.06%	-2.21	+3.3	9
2024-05-14	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	58.5	1553	1235	73.06%	16.26%	10.68%	+2.21	-3.3	26
2024-05-15	Auda	W 2-1	47.6	1406	1366	47.81%	19.33%	32.86%	+0.39	+7.2	24
2024-05-15	@ Valmiera	L 1-2	47.6	1366	1406	32.86%	19.33%	47.81%	-0.39	-7.2	15
2024-05-15	FK RFS	L 1-2	37.9	1170	1583	6.71%	14.38%	78.91%	-2.91	-1.5	8
2024-05-15	@ Jelgava	W 2-1	37.9	1583	1170	78.91%	14.38%	6.71%	+2.91	+1.5	31
2024-05-16	Grobina	L 1-2	47.3	1227	1237	40.80%	19.44%	39.76%	+0.03	-8.6	17
2024-05-16	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-1	47.3	1237	1227	39.76%	19.44%	40.80%	-0.03	+8.6	12
2024-05-16	Metta	W 4-0	33.0	1312	1214	55.08%	18.97%	25.95%	+0.81	+22.4	27
2024-05-16	@ Daugavpils	L 0-4	33.0	1214	1312	25.95%	18.97%	55.08%	-0.81	-22.4	14
2024-05-19	Liepaja	D 1-1	55.3	1359	1239	57.70%	18.77%	23.53%	+0.97	-1.7	16
2024-05-19	@ Auda	D 1-1	55.3	1239	1359	23.53%	18.77%	57.70%	-0.97	+1.7	10
2024-05-19	Riga FC	L 1-5	32.1	1168	1550	7.84%	15.03%	77.13%	-2.67	-5.8	8
2024-05-19	@ Jelgava	W 5-1	32.1	1550	1168	77.13%	15.03%	7.84%	+2.67	+5.8	29
2024-05-20	Daugavpils	W 5-0	34.7	1585	1334	70.11%	16.98%	12.92%	+1.92	+14.3	34
2024-05-20	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	34.7	1334	1585	12.92%	16.98%	70.11%	-1.92	-14.3	27
2024-05-20	Valmiera	L 0-2	35.1	1246	1414	21.47%	18.55%	59.98%	-1.12	-9.9	12
2024-05-20	@ Grobina	W 2-0	35.1	1414	1246	59.98%	18.55%	21.47%	+1.12	+9.9	27
2024-05-21	Tukums 2000	D 1-1	54.4	1192	1218	38.37%	19.43%	42.20%	-0.10	+0.2	15
2024-05-21	@ Metta	D 1-1	54.4	1218	1192	42.20%	19.43%	38.37%	+0.10	-0.2	18
2024-05-23	Jelgava	L 0-1	49.4	1357	1162	65.32%	17.86%	16.82%	+1.51	-13.9	16
2024-05-23	@ Auda	W 1-0	49.4	1162	1357	16.82%	17.86%	65.32%	-1.51	+13.9	11
2024-05-24	Riga FC	L 0-2	37.3	1320	1556	15.72%	17.65%	66.63%	-1.62	-7.4	27
2024-05-24	@ Daugavpils	W 2-0	37.3	1556	1320	66.63%	17.65%	15.72%	+1.62	+7.4	32
2024-05-24	Valmiera	L 0-3	32.9	1240	1424	20.04%	18.37%	61.59%	-1.23	-13.6	10
2024-05-24	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	32.9	1424	1240	61.59%	18.37%	20.04%	+1.23	+13.6	30
2024-05-25	FK RFS	L 0-1	34.8	1218	1599	7.88%	15.04%	77.08%	-2.67	-2.0	18
2024-05-25	@ Tukums 2000	W 1-0	34.8	1599	1218	77.08%	15.04%	7.88%	+2.67	+2.0	37
2024-05-25	Grobina	D 1-1	54.5	1192	1236	36.00%	19.41%	44.60%	-0.22	+0.4	16
2024-05-25	@ Metta	D 1-1	54.5	1236	1192	44.60%	19.41%	36.00%	+0.22	-0.4	13
2024-05-28	Auda	L 0-3	38.5	1312	1343	37.80%	19.43%	42.77%	-0.13	-23.6	27
2024-05-28	@ Daugavpils	W 3-0	38.5	1343	1312	42.77%	19.43%	37.80%	+0.13	+23.6	19
2024-05-28	Jelgava	W 4-0	28.7	1437	1176	70.87%	16.81%	12.33%	+1.99	+11.1	33
2024-05-28	@ Valmiera	L 0-4	28.7	1176	1437	12.33%	16.81%	70.87%	-1.99	-11.1	11
2024-05-29	FK RFS	L 0-6	28.8	1192	1601	6.86%	14.47%	78.67%	-2.87	-8.8	16
2024-05-29	@ Metta	W 6-0	28.8	1601	1192	78.67%	14.47%	6.86%	+2.87	+8.8	40
2024-05-29	Grobina	W 3-0	38.0	1227	1235	40.99%	19.44%	39.56%	+0.04	+24.5	13
2024-05-29	@ Liepaja	L 0-3	38.0	1235	1227	39.56%	19.44%	40.99%	-0.04	-24.5	13
2024-05-29	Tukums 2000	W 3-0	30.1	1563	1216	76.67%	15.18%	8.15%	+2.62	+5.5	35
2024-05-29	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	30.1	1216	1563	8.15%	15.18%	76.67%	-2.62	-5.5	18
2024-06-01	Valmiera	L 1-6	36.5	1289	1448	22.28%	18.64%	59.08%	-1.06	-19.9	27
2024-06-01	@ Daugavpils	W 6-1	36.5	1448	1289	59.08%	18.64%	22.28%	+1.06	+19.9	36
2024-06-02	Auda	L 1-4	38.1	1211	1367	22.65%	18.68%	58.67%	-1.03	-12.8	18
2024-06-02	@ Tukums 2000	W 4-1	38.1	1367	1211	58.67%	18.68%	22.65%	+1.03	+12.8	22
2024-06-02	Grobina	W 5-0	29.0	1610	1211	79.58%	14.12%	6.31%	+3.00	+6.8	43
2024-06-02	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	29.0	1211	1610	6.31%	14.12%	79.58%	-3.00	-6.8	13
2024-06-02	Liepaja	D 1-1	54.5	1165	1251	30.51%	19.24%	50.24%	-0.53	+1.0	12
2024-06-02	@ Jelgava	D 1-1	54.5	1251	1165	50.24%	19.24%	30.51%	+0.53	-1.0	14
2024-06-02	Metta	W 5-0	27.7	1569	1183	78.85%	14.40%	6.75%	+2.90	+7.3	38
2024-06-02	@ Riga FC	L 0-5	27.7	1183	1569	6.75%	14.40%	78.85%	-2.90	-7.3	16
2024-06-14	Tukums 2000	W 6-1	31.8	1468	1198	71.57%	16.64%	11.79%	+2.06	+10.8	39
2024-06-14	@ Valmiera	L 1-6	31.8	1198	1468	11.79%	16.64%	71.57%	-2.06	-10.8	18
2024-06-15	Daugavpils	D 1-1	54.7	1250	1269	39.57%	19.44%	40.99%	-0.04	+0.1	15
2024-06-15	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	54.7	1269	1250	40.99%	19.44%	39.57%	+0.04	-0.1	28
2024-06-16	Jelgava	W 4-2	47.1	1204	1166	47.45%	19.34%	33.20%	+0.37	+11.3	16
2024-06-16	@ Grobina	L 2-4	47.1	1166	1204	33.20%	19.34%	47.45%	-0.37	-11.3	12
2024-06-16	Metta	W 4-0	29.8	1379	1176	66.13%	17.73%	16.14%	+1.58	+14.4	25
2024-06-16	@ Auda	L 0-4	29.8	1176	1379	16.14%	17.73%	66.13%	-1.58	-14.4	16
2024-06-16	Riga FC	D 2-2	75.7	1617	1576	47.85%	19.33%	32.83%	+0.39	-0.5	44
2024-06-16	@ FK RFS	D 2-2	75.7	1576	1617	32.83%	19.33%	47.85%	-0.39	+0.5	39
2024-06-20	Liepaja	W 2-1	49.1	1187	1250	33.43%	19.35%	47.22%	-0.36	+9.8	21
2024-06-20	@ Tukums 2000	L 1-2	49.1	1250	1187	47.22%	19.35%	33.43%	+0.36	-9.8	15
2024-06-20	Metta	W 3-0	28.7	1479	1162	74.84%	15.76%	9.40%	+2.40	+6.4	42
2024-06-20	@ Valmiera	L 0-3	28.7	1162	1479	9.40%	15.76%	74.84%	-2.40	-6.4	16
2024-06-21	FK RFS	L 1-3	47.8	1394	1616	16.77%	17.85%	65.37%	-1.52	-6.8	25
2024-06-21	@ Auda	W 3-1	47.8	1616	1394	65.37%	17.85%	16.77%	+1.52	+6.8	47
2024-06-21	Jelgava	W 3-0	33.1	1269	1155	56.96%	18.83%	24.21%	+0.92	+16.1	31
2024-06-21	@ Daugavpils	L 0-3	33.1	1155	1269	24.21%	18.83%	56.96%	-0.92	-16.1	12
2024-06-22	Riga FC	L 0-6	29.6	1215	1577	8.66%	15.44%	75.90%	-2.53	-11.3	16
2024-06-22	@ Grobina	W 6-0	29.6	1577	1215	75.90%	15.44%	8.66%	+2.53	+11.3	42
2024-06-25	Metta	L 1-5	45.1	1241	1155	53.60%	19.07%	27.33%	+0.72	-34.5	15
2024-06-25	@ Liepaja	W 5-1	45.1	1155	1241	27.33%	19.07%	53.60%	-0.72	+34.5	19
2024-06-26	Auda	W 1-0	43.2	1588	1387	65.88%	17.77%	16.35%	+1.56	+4.1	45
2024-06-26	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	43.2	1387	1588	16.35%	17.77%	65.88%	-1.56	-4.1	25
2024-06-26	Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.3	1139	1197	34.09%	19.37%	46.54%	-0.32	+0.7	13
2024-06-26	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	50.3	1197	1139	46.54%	19.37%	34.09%	+0.32	-0.7	22
2024-06-26	Valmiera	W 4-1	50.9	1623	1485	59.63%	18.59%	21.79%	+1.10	+12.4	50
2024-06-26	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	50.9	1485	1623	21.79%	18.59%	59.63%	-1.10	-12.4	42
2024-06-27	Daugavpils	W 3-0	41.0	1204	1285	31.17%	19.27%	49.56%	-0.49	+29.5	19
2024-06-27	@ Grobina	L 0-3	41.0	1285	1204	49.56%	19.27%	31.17%	+0.49	-29.5	31
2024-07-01	FK RFS	L 1-3	37.8	1206	1635	6.21%	14.05%	79.74%	-3.02	-2.5	15
2024-07-01	@ Liepaja	W 3-1	37.8	1635	1206	79.74%	14.05%	6.21%	+3.02	+2.5	53
2024-07-01	Metta	W 1-0	43.5	1139	1190	35.17%	19.39%	45.44%	-0.27	+10.0	16
2024-07-01	@ Jelgava	L 0-1	43.5	1190	1139	45.44%	19.39%	35.17%	+0.27	-10.0	19
2024-07-02	Grobina	L 0-1	48.8	1383	1234	60.88%	18.45%	20.67%	+1.18	-13.0	25
2024-07-02	@ Auda	W 1-0	48.8	1234	1383	20.67%	18.45%	60.88%	-1.18	+13.0	22
2024-07-02	Riga FC	D 2-2	72.0	1473	1592	26.60%	19.02%	54.38%	-0.77	+1.0	43
2024-07-02	@ Valmiera	D 2-2	72.0	1592	1473	54.38%	19.02%	26.60%	+0.77	-1.0	46
2024-07-03	Daugavpils	L 1-2	45.2	1196	1255	33.99%	19.36%	46.65%	-0.33	-7.4	22
2024-07-03	@ Tukums 2000	W 2-1	45.2	1255	1196	46.65%	19.36%	33.99%	+0.33	+7.4	34
2024-07-05	Jelgava	W 7-0	27.4	1638	1150	83.71%	12.24%	4.05%	+3.64	+5.8	56
2024-07-05	@ FK RFS	L 0-7	27.4	1150	1638	4.05%	12.24%	83.71%	-3.64	-5.8	16
2024-07-06	Valmiera	L 0-1	42.9	1370	1474	28.31%	19.13%	52.56%	-0.66	-6.8	25
2024-07-06	@ Auda	W 1-0	42.9	1474	1370	52.56%	19.13%	28.31%	+0.66	+6.8	46
2024-07-07	Daugavpils	W 3-2	54.9	1180	1263	30.88%	19.26%	49.87%	-0.50	+9.7	22
2024-07-07	@ Metta	L 2-3	54.9	1263	1180	49.87%	19.26%	30.88%	+0.50	-9.7	34
2024-07-07	Riga FC	L 0-3	30.2	1204	1591	7.63%	14.91%	77.45%	-2.71	-5.2	15
2024-07-07	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	30.2	1591	1204	77.45%	14.91%	7.63%	+2.71	+5.2	49
2024-07-08	Tukums 2000	W 2-1	44.1	1247	1189	50.10%	19.25%	30.65%	+0.52	+6.8	25
2024-07-08	@ Grobina	L 1-2	44.1	1189	1247	30.65%	19.25%	50.10%	-0.52	-6.8	22
2024-07-19	Jelgava	W 6-1	29.6	1596	1144	82.16%	13.00%	4.85%	+3.38	+4.2	52
2024-07-19	@ Riga FC	L 1-6	29.6	1144	1596	4.85%	13.00%	82.16%	-3.38	-4.2	16
2024-07-21	Grobina	D 0-0	53.2	1481	1253	68.20%	17.37%	14.43%	+1.75	-3.1	47
2024-07-21	@ Valmiera	D 0-0	53.2	1253	1481	14.43%	17.37%	68.20%	-1.75	+3.1	26
2024-07-21	Liepaja	W 2-0	33.7	1363	1198	62.46%	18.27%	19.28%	+1.30	+9.0	28
2024-07-21	@ Auda	L 0-2	33.7	1198	1363	19.28%	18.27%	62.46%	-1.30	-9.0	15
2024-07-22	Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.4	1189	1182	43.24%	19.42%	37.33%	+0.15	-0.3	23
2024-07-22	@ Metta	D 0-0	50.4	1182	1189	37.33%	19.42%	43.24%	-0.15	+0.3	23
2024-07-27	FK RFS	L 1-4	34.8	1182	1644	5.30%	13.38%	81.32%	-3.25	-3.0	23
2024-07-27	@ Tukums 2000	W 4-1	34.8	1644	1182	81.32%	13.38%	5.30%	+3.25	+2.9	59
2024-07-27	Metta	L 1-2	50.3	1257	1189	51.36%	19.19%	29.45%	+0.59	-10.5	26
2024-07-27	@ Grobina	W 2-1	50.3	1189	1257	29.45%	19.19%	51.36%	-0.59	+10.5	26
2024-07-28	Auda	L 1-3	37.6	1139	1372	15.97%	17.70%	66.33%	-1.59	-6.5	16
2024-07-28	@ Jelgava	W 3-1	37.6	1372	1139	66.33%	17.70%	15.97%	+1.59	+6.5	31
2024-07-28	Daugavpils	W 1-0	35.9	1600	1253	76.70%	15.17%	8.13%	+2.62	+2.0	55
2024-07-28	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	35.9	1253	1600	8.13%	15.17%	76.70%	-2.62	-2.0	34
2024-07-28	Valmiera	D 0-0	52.5	1189	1478	12.30%	16.80%	70.90%	-2.00	+3.4	16
2024-07-28	@ Liepaja	D 0-0	52.5	1478	1189	70.90%	16.80%	12.30%	+2.00	-3.5	48
2024-08-03	Grobina	L 0-1	40.4	1193	1246	34.75%	19.38%	45.87%	-0.29	-8.0	16
2024-08-03	@ Liepaja	W 1-0	40.4	1246	1193	45.87%	19.38%	34.75%	+0.29	+8.0	29
2024-08-04	Daugavpils	W 1-0	37.5	1379	1251	58.56%	18.69%	22.75%	+1.03	+5.6	34
2024-08-04	@ Auda	L 0-1	37.5	1251	1379	22.75%	18.69%	58.56%	-1.03	-5.6	34
2024-08-04	Metta	W 5-1	33.3	1647	1199	81.92%	13.11%	4.97%	+3.35	+3.6	62
2024-08-04	@ FK RFS	L 1-5	33.3	1199	1647	4.97%	13.11%	81.92%	-3.35	-3.5	26
2024-08-04	Riga FC	L 0-5	28.1	1179	1602	6.41%	14.18%	79.41%	-2.97	-6.9	23
2024-08-04	@ Tukums 2000	W 5-0	28.1	1602	1179	79.41%	14.18%	6.41%	+2.97	+6.9	58
2024-08-04	Valmiera	L 0-4	27.6	1133	1474	9.54%	15.83%	74.63%	-2.38	-8.5	16
2024-08-04	@ Jelgava	W 4-0	27.6	1474	1133	74.63%	15.83%	9.54%	+2.38	+8.5	51
2024-08-10	Jelgava	W 3-0	34.9	1185	1124	50.44%	19.23%	30.33%	+0.54	+19.6	19
2024-08-10	@ Liepaja	L 0-3	34.9	1124	1185	30.33%	19.23%	50.44%	-0.54	-19.6	16
2024-08-10	Riga FC	L 2-4	41.3	1196	1609	6.72%	14.38%	78.90%	-2.90	-2.4	26
2024-08-10	@ Metta	W 4-2	41.3	1609	1196	78.90%	14.38%	6.72%	+2.90	+2.4	61
2024-08-11	Daugavpils	W 4-1	36.5	1483	1245	69.03%	17.20%	13.77%	+1.82	+8.0	54
2024-08-11	@ Valmiera	L 1-4	36.5	1245	1483	13.77%	17.20%	69.03%	-1.82	-8.0	34
2024-08-11	Grobina	W 3-0	32.6	1650	1254	79.42%	14.18%	6.40%	+2.97	+4.3	65
2024-08-11	@ FK RFS	L 0-3	32.6	1254	1650	6.40%	14.18%	79.42%	-2.97	-4.3	29
2024-08-23	Jelgava	L 2-3	57.7	1250	1105	60.41%	18.50%	21.09%	+1.15	-11.6	29
2024-08-23	@ Grobina	W 3-2	57.7	1105	1250	21.09%	18.50%	60.41%	-1.15	+11.6	19
2024-08-24	Liepaja	L 0-2	41.8	1237	1204	46.79%	19.36%	33.85%	+0.34	-19.3	34
2024-08-24	@ Daugavpils	W 2-0	41.8	1204	1237	33.85%	19.36%	46.79%	-0.34	+19.3	22
2024-08-24	Valmiera	W 3-2	62.2	1172	1491	10.66%	16.26%	73.08%	-2.21	+13.8	26
2024-08-24	@ Tukums 2000	L 2-3	62.2	1491	1172	73.08%	16.26%	10.66%	+2.21	-13.8	54
2024-08-25	Auda	L 0-4	31.0	1194	1384	19.37%	18.28%	62.35%	-1.29	-17.2	26
2024-08-25	@ Metta	W 4-0	31.0	1384	1194	62.35%	18.28%	19.37%	+1.29	+17.2	37
2024-08-25	FK RFS	D 0-0	67.8	1612	1654	36.16%	19.41%	44.43%	-0.21	+0.4	62
2024-08-25	@ Riga FC	D 0-0	67.8	1654	1612	44.43%	19.41%	36.16%	+0.21	-0.4	66
2024-08-31	Grobina	W 6-1	33.2	1612	1238	78.22%	14.64%	7.14%	+2.81	+6.4	65
2024-08-31	@ Riga FC	L 1-6	33.2	1238	1612	7.14%	14.64%	78.22%	-2.81	-6.4	29
2024-08-31	Metta	W 4-0	28.2	1477	1176	73.72%	16.08%	10.19%	+2.28	+9.1	57
2024-08-31	@ Valmiera	L 0-4	28.2	1176	1477	10.19%	16.08%	73.72%	-2.28	-9.1	26
2024-09-01	Daugavpils	D 0-0	50.4	1116	1218	28.60%	19.15%	52.25%	-0.64	+1.3	20
2024-09-01	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	50.4	1218	1116	52.25%	19.15%	28.60%	+0.64	-1.3	35
2024-09-01	Tukums 2000	W 3-1	43.0	1224	1186	47.41%	19.34%	33.25%	+0.37	+12.6	25
2024-09-01	@ Liepaja	L 1-3	43.0	1186	1224	33.25%	19.34%	47.41%	-0.37	-12.6	26
2024-09-13	FK RFS	L 1-2	55.7	1486	1654	21.47%	18.55%	59.98%	-1.12	-5.0	57
2024-09-13	@ Valmiera	W 2-1	55.7	1654	1486	59.98%	18.55%	21.47%	+1.12	+5.0	69
2024-09-14	Grobina	W 4-0	37.2	1217	1232	40.05%	19.44%	40.51%	-0.01	+32.5	38
2024-09-14	@ Daugavpils	L 0-4	37.2	1232	1217	40.51%	19.44%	40.05%	+0.01	-32.5	29
2024-09-14	Riga FC	D 2-2	70.7	1402	1619	17.18%	17.93%	64.89%	-1.48	+1.8	38
2024-09-14	@ Auda	D 2-2	70.7	1619	1402	64.89%	17.93%	17.18%	+1.48	-1.8	66
2024-09-15	Jelgava	D 3-3	63.8	1174	1118	49.87%	19.26%	30.88%	+0.50	-0.6	27
2024-09-15	@ Tukums 2000	D 3-3	63.8	1118	1174	30.88%	19.26%	49.87%	-0.50	+0.6	21
2024-09-15	Liepaja	L 1-2	44.6	1167	1236	32.64%	19.32%	48.04%	-0.40	-7.2	26
2024-09-15	@ Metta	W 2-1	44.6	1236	1167	48.04%	19.32%	32.64%	+0.40	+7.2	28
2024-09-17	Daugavpils	W 4-1	37.6	1659	1249	80.12%	13.89%	5.99%	+3.07	+3.4	72
2024-09-17	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	37.6	1249	1659	5.99%	13.89%	80.12%	-3.07	-3.4	38
2024-09-19	Valmiera	W 1-0	49.6	1617	1481	59.40%	18.61%	21.99%	+1.08	+5.4	69
2024-09-19	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	49.6	1481	1617	21.99%	18.61%	59.40%	-1.08	-5.4	57
2024-09-20	Liepaja	W 2-0	34.1	1662	1244	80.57%	13.71%	5.73%	+3.14	+2.6	75
2024-09-20	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	34.1	1244	1662	5.73%	13.71%	80.57%	-3.14	-2.6	28
2024-09-21	Daugavpils	D 0-0	50.5	1173	1246	32.17%	19.31%	48.52%	-0.43	+0.9	28
2024-09-21	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.5	1246	1173	48.52%	19.31%	32.17%	+0.43	-0.9	39
2024-09-22	Grobina	W 2-0	32.8	1403	1199	66.18%	17.72%	16.10%	+1.58	+7.6	41
2024-09-22	@ Auda	L 0-2	32.8	1199	1403	16.10%	17.72%	66.18%	-1.58	-7.6	29
2024-09-22	Jelgava	W 2-0	37.4	1160	1118	47.99%	19.32%	32.69%	+0.40	+14.4	29
2024-09-22	@ Metta	L 0-2	37.4	1118	1160	32.69%	19.32%	47.99%	-0.40	-14.4	21
2024-09-27	Metta	D 1-1	54.5	1245	1174	51.75%	19.17%	29.08%	+0.61	-1.1	40
2024-09-27	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	54.5	1174	1245	29.08%	19.17%	51.75%	-0.61	+1.1	30
2024-09-28	Auda	L 2-3	60.9	1476	1411	51.00%	19.21%	29.79%	+0.57	-9.9	57
2024-09-28	@ Valmiera	W 3-2	60.9	1411	1476	29.79%	19.21%	51.00%	-0.57	+9.9	44
2024-09-28	Tukums 2000	L 1-2	48.2	1192	1174	44.70%	19.40%	35.90%	+0.23	-9.3	29
2024-09-28	@ Grobina	W 2-1	48.2	1174	1192	35.90%	19.40%	44.70%	-0.23	+9.3	31
2024-09-29	Liepaja	W 1-0	35.6	1622	1241	78.62%	14.49%	6.89%	+2.87	+1.7	72
2024-09-29	@ Riga FC	L 0-1	35.6	1241	1622	6.89%	14.49%	78.62%	-2.87	-1.7	28
2024-09-30	FK RFS	L 0-2	29.0	1104	1665	3.21%	11.29%	85.50%	-3.98	-1.4	21
2024-09-30	@ Jelgava	W 2-0	29.0	1665	1104	85.50%	11.29%	3.21%	+3.98	+1.4	78
2024-10-02	Tukums 2000	D 1-1	55.8	1421	1183	69.04%	17.20%	13.76%	+1.82	-2.9	45
2024-10-02	@ Auda	D 1-1	55.8	1183	1421	13.76%	17.20%	69.04%	-1.82	+2.9	32
2024-10-04	Valmiera	L 1-4	35.1	1182	1466	12.59%	16.88%	70.53%	-1.96	-7.3	29
2024-10-04	@ Grobina	W 4-1	35.1	1466	1182	70.53%	16.88%	12.59%	+1.96	+7.3	60
2024-10-05	Auda	W 2-1	54.1	1239	1418	20.47%	18.43%	61.11%	-1.20	+12.3	31
2024-10-05	@ Liepaja	L 1-2	54.1	1418	1239	61.11%	18.43%	20.47%	+1.20	-12.3	45
2024-10-05	Riga FC	L 0-2	28.8	1102	1624	3.93%	12.12%	83.95%	-3.69	-1.7	21
2024-10-05	@ Jelgava	W 2-0	28.8	1624	1102	83.95%	12.12%	3.93%	+3.69	+1.7	75
2024-10-06	FK RFS	L 0-3	32.8	1244	1666	6.42%	14.19%	79.38%	-2.97	-4.3	40
2024-10-06	@ Daugavpils	W 3-0	32.8	1666	1244	79.38%	14.19%	6.42%	+2.97	+4.3	81
2024-10-06	Metta	L 0-1	43.0	1186	1176	43.71%	19.42%	36.87%	+0.18	-9.7	32
2024-10-06	@ Tukums 2000	W 1-0	43.0	1176	1186	36.87%	19.42%	43.71%	-0.18	+9.7	33
2024-10-17	Auda	L 1-2	68.0	1671	1406	71.19%	16.73%	12.08%	+2.02	-14.2	81
2024-10-17	@ FK RFS	W 2-1	68.0	1406	1671	12.08%	16.73%	71.19%	-2.02	+14.2	48
2024-10-19	Riga FC	L 0-5	30.8	1240	1626	7.68%	14.94%	77.37%	-2.70	-8.4	40
2024-10-19	@ Daugavpils	W 5-0	30.8	1626	1240	77.37%	14.94%	7.68%	+2.70	+8.4	78
2024-10-20	Grobina	W 2-1	45.9	1185	1175	43.65%	19.42%	36.93%	+0.17	+8.0	36
2024-10-20	@ Metta	L 1-2	45.9	1175	1185	36.93%	19.42%	43.65%	-0.17	-8.0	29
2024-10-20	Liepaja	L 0-1	51.7	1473	1252	67.70%	17.46%	14.84%	+1.71	-14.4	60
2024-10-20	@ Valmiera	W 1-0	51.7	1252	1473	14.84%	17.46%	67.70%	-1.71	+14.4	34
2024-10-20	Tukums 2000	W 4-1	34.4	1656	1176	83.36%	12.42%	4.22%	+3.58	+2.3	84
2024-10-20	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	34.4	1176	1656	4.22%	12.42%	83.36%	-3.58	-2.3	32
2024-10-21	Jelgava	W 3-0	27.9	1420	1101	74.95%	15.73%	9.32%	+2.42	+6.4	51
2024-10-21	@ Auda	L 0-3	27.9	1101	1420	9.32%	15.73%	74.95%	-2.42	-6.4	21
2024-10-26	Auda	L 1-2	41.4	1231	1426	19.01%	18.23%	62.77%	-1.32	-4.4	40
2024-10-26	@ Daugavpils	W 2-1	41.4	1426	1231	62.77%	18.23%	19.01%	+1.32	+4.5	54
2024-10-26	Jelgava	W 3-2	41.2	1459	1094	77.69%	14.83%	7.48%	+2.74	+1.6	63
2024-10-26	@ Valmiera	L 2-3	41.2	1094	1459	7.48%	14.83%	77.69%	-2.74	-1.7	21
2024-10-26	Liepaja	L 1-3	41.7	1167	1266	28.93%	19.16%	51.91%	-0.62	-11.2	29
2024-10-26	@ Grobina	W 3-1	41.7	1266	1167	51.91%	19.16%	28.93%	+0.62	+11.2	37
2024-10-27	Tukums 2000	W 10-1	29.2	1634	1174	82.48%	12.84%	4.67%	+3.44	+7.1	81
2024-10-27	@ Riga FC	L 1-10	29.2	1174	1634	4.67%	12.84%	82.48%	-3.44	-7.1	32
2024-10-28	FK RFS	L 1-2	39.3	1193	1659	5.19%	13.29%	81.52%	-3.28	-1.2	36
2024-10-28	@ Metta	W 2-1	39.3	1659	1193	81.52%	13.29%	5.19%	+3.28	+1.2	87
2024-11-03	Auda	L 0-3	30.1	1167	1431	13.83%	17.22%	68.95%	-1.82	-9.5	32
2024-11-03	@ Tukums 2000	W 3-0	30.1	1431	1167	68.95%	17.22%	13.83%	+1.82	+9.5	57
2024-11-03	FK RFS	L 0-2	30.7	1156	1660	4.28%	12.48%	83.24%	-3.56	-1.9	29
2024-11-03	@ Grobina	W 2-0	30.7	1660	1156	83.24%	12.48%	4.28%	+3.56	+1.9	90
2024-11-03	Liepaja	D 2-2	60.0	1093	1277	19.93%	18.36%	61.71%	-1.24	+1.6	22
2024-11-03	@ Jelgava	D 2-2	60.0	1277	1093	61.71%	18.36%	19.93%	+1.24	-1.6	38
2024-11-03	Metta	W 4-0	28.8	1641	1192	82.00%	13.07%	4.93%	+3.36	+4.2	84
2024-11-03	@ Riga FC	L 0-4	28.8	1192	1641	4.93%	13.07%	82.00%	-3.36	-4.2	36
2024-11-03	Valmiera	D 3-3	66.0	1227	1460	15.91%	17.69%	66.40%	-1.60	+1.6	41
2024-11-03	@ Daugavpils	D 3-3	66.0	1460	1227	66.40%	17.69%	15.91%	+1.60	-1.6	64
2024-11-09	Daugavpils	D 3-3	64.2	1276	1228	48.72%	19.30%	31.98%	+0.44	-0.5	39
2024-11-09	@ Liepaja	D 3-3	64.2	1228	1276	31.98%	19.30%	48.72%	-0.44	+0.5	42
2024-11-09	Grobina	W 2-0	41.6	1094	1154	33.89%	19.36%	46.75%	-0.34	+19.3	25
2024-11-09	@ Jelgava	L 0-2	41.6	1154	1094	46.75%	19.36%	33.89%	+0.34	-19.3	29
2024-11-09	Metta	W 5-0	28.8	1440	1188	70.22%	16.95%	12.83%	+1.93	+14.2	60
2024-11-09	@ Auda	L 0-5	28.8	1188	1440	12.83%	16.95%	70.22%	-1.93	-14.2	36
2024-11-09	Tukums 2000	L 2-3	61.9	1459	1158	73.76%	16.07%	10.17%	+2.28	-13.9	64
2024-11-09	@ Valmiera	W 3-2	61.9	1158	1459	10.17%	16.07%	73.76%	-2.28	+13.9	35
2024-11-10	Riga FC	L 1-2	66.2	1662	1645	44.56%	19.41%	36.03%	+0.22	-9.3	90
2024-11-10	@ FK RFS	W 2-1	66.2	1645	1662	36.03%	19.41%	44.56%	-0.22	+9.3	87

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2024-11-09	10.17%	Tukums 2000	1158	3	@ Valmiera	1459	2
2	2024-04-16	10.25%	@ Tukums 2000	1240	2	Riga FC	1566	1
3	2024-08-24	10.66%	@ Tukums 2000	1172	3	Valmiera	1491	2
4	2024-10-17	12.08%	Auda	1406	2	@ FK RFS	1671	1
5	2024-10-20	14.84%	Liepaja	1252	1	@ Valmiera	1473	0
6	2024-05-05	16.41%	@ Valmiera	1378	2	FK RFS	1605	0
7	2024-03-15	16.74%	Valmiera	1378	1	@ FK RFS	1574	0
8	2024-05-23	16.82%	Jelgava	1162	1	@ Auda	1357	0
9	2024-10-05	20.47%	@ Liepaja	1239	2	Auda	1418	1
10	2024-07-02	20.67%	Grobina	1234	1	@ Auda	1383	0
11	2024-08-23	21.09%	Jelgava	1105	3	@ Grobina	1250	2
12	2024-03-31	21.47%	@ Valmiera	1392	2	Riga FC	1560	1
13	2024-04-14	22.68%	Liepaja	1257	1	@ Valmiera	1385	0
14	2024-04-22	22.97%	Daugavpils	1261	1	@ Valmiera	1387	0
15	2024-04-09	26.75%	@ Liepaja	1245	1	Auda	1363	0
16	2024-03-09	26.94%	Tukums 2000	1217	2	@ Liepaja	1306	0
17	2024-06-25	27.33%	Metta	1155	5	@ Liepaja	1241	1
18	2024-04-23	28.63%	Jelgava	1187	1	@ Liepaja	1262	0
19	2024-05-06	28.96%	Metta	1179	2	@ Liepaja	1251	1
20	2024-03-16	29.34%	@ Metta	1188	2	Liepaja	1284	0
21	2024-07-27	29.45%	Metta	1189	2	@ Grobina	1257	1
22	2024-09-28	29.79%	Auda	1411	3	@ Valmiera	1476	2
23	2024-07-07	30.88%	@ Metta	1180	3	Daugavpils	1263	2
24	2024-06-27	31.17%	@ Grobina	1204	3	Daugavpils	1285	0
25	2024-04-28	33.01%	@ Jelgava	1198	2	Grobina	1265	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-06-25	34.50	Metta	5	1155	27.33%	@ Liepaja	1	1241	53.60%	19.07%
2	2024-09-14	32.55	@ Daugavpils	4	1217	40.05%	Grobina	0	1232	40.51%	19.44%
3	2024-06-27	29.54	@ Grobina	3	1204	31.17%	Daugavpils	0	1285	49.56%	19.27%
4	2024-05-05	26.43	@ Valmiera	2	1378	16.41%	FK RFS	0	1605	65.80%	17.79%
5	2024-05-29	24.45	@ Liepaja	3	1227	40.99%	Grobina	0	1235	39.56%	19.44%
6	2024-05-11	24.13	@ Metta	3	1190	41.62%	Jelgava	0	1194	38.94%	19.44%
7	2024-05-28	23.56	Auda	3	1343	42.77%	@ Daugavpils	0	1312	37.80%	19.43%
8	2024-05-16	22.37	@ Daugavpils	4	1312	55.08%	Metta	0	1214	25.95%	18.97%
9	2024-03-09	21.97	Tukums 2000	2	1217	26.94%	@ Liepaja	0	1306	54.02%	19.04%
10	2024-04-13	21.42	@ Grobina	3	1246	46.96%	Metta	0	1211	33.68%	19.35%
11	2024-03-16	21.04	@ Metta	2	1188	29.34%	Liepaja	0	1284	51.47%	19.19%
12	2024-06-01	19.93	Valmiera	6	1448	59.08%	@ Daugavpils	1	1289	22.28%	18.64%
13	2024-08-10	19.61	@ Liepaja	3	1185	50.44%	Jelgava	0	1124	30.33%	19.23%
14	2024-08-24	19.35	Liepaja	2	1204	33.85%	@ Daugavpils	0	1237	46.79%	19.36%
15	2024-11-09	19.34	@ Jelgava	2	1094	33.89%	Grobina	0	1154	46.75%	19.36%
16	2024-03-16	18.91	@ Daugavpils	2	1228	35.06%	Grobina	0	1279	45.55%	19.39%
17	2024-04-04	17.82	@ Tukums 2000	2	1233	38.12%	Grobina	0	1261	42.45%	19.43%
18	2024-08-25	17.17	Auda	4	1384	62.35%	@ Metta	0	1194	19.37%	18.28%
19	2024-05-12	17.13	@ Daugavpils	4	1294	49.11%	Tukums 2000	1	1244	31.61%	19.29%
20	2024-04-05	16.68	@ Auda	3	1346	34.10%	Valmiera	1	1404	46.54%	19.37%
21	2024-06-21	16.11	@ Daugavpils	3	1269	56.96%	Jelgava	0	1155	24.21%	18.83%
22	2024-04-16	14.66	@ Tukums 2000	2	1240	10.25%	Riga FC	1	1566	73.65%	16.11%
23	2024-06-16	14.44	@ Auda	4	1379	66.13%	Metta	0	1176	16.14%	17.73%
24	2024-10-20	14.39	Liepaja	1	1252	14.84%	@ Valmiera	0	1473	67.70%	17.46%
25	2024-09-22	14.38	@ Metta	2	1160	47.99%	Jelgava	0	1118	32.69%	19.32%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-06-16	75.7	@ FK RFS	2	1617	47.85%	Riga FC	2	1576	32.83%	19.33%
2	2024-07-02	72.0	@ Valmiera	2	1473	26.60%	Riga FC	2	1592	54.38%	19.02%
3	2024-09-14	70.7	@ Auda	2	1402	17.18%	Riga FC	2	1619	64.89%	17.93%
4	2024-10-17	68.0	Auda	2	1406	12.08%	@ FK RFS	1	1671	71.19%	16.73%
5	2024-08-25	67.8	@ Riga FC	0	1612	36.16%	FK RFS	0	1654	44.43%	19.41%
6	2024-11-10	66.2	Riga FC	2	1645	36.03%	@ FK RFS	1	1662	44.56%	19.41%
7	2024-11-03	66.0	@ Daugavpils	3	1227	15.91%	Valmiera	3	1460	66.40%	17.69%
8	2024-11-09	64.2	@ Liepaja	3	1276	48.72%	Daugavpils	3	1228	31.98%	19.30%
9	2024-09-15	63.8	@ Tukums 2000	3	1174	49.87%	Jelgava	3	1118	30.88%	19.26%
10	2024-05-10	63.0	@ Riga FC	1	1555	61.04%	Valmiera	1	1404	20.52%	18.43%
11	2024-08-24	62.2	@ Tukums 2000	3	1172	10.66%	Valmiera	2	1491	73.08%	16.26%
12	2024-11-09	61.9	Tukums 2000	3	1158	10.17%	@ Valmiera	2	1459	73.76%	16.07%
13	2024-09-28	60.9	Auda	3	1411	29.79%	@ Valmiera	2	1476	51.00%	19.21%
14	2024-03-31	60.6	@ Valmiera	2	1392	21.47%	Riga FC	1	1560	59.98%	18.55%
15	2024-04-27	60.6	FK RFS	2	1594	44.06%	@ Riga FC	1	1553	36.53%	19.41%
16	2024-05-11	60.6	@ Grobina	2	1236	25.22%	Auda	2	1367	55.86%	18.92%
17	2024-11-03	60.0	@ Jelgava	2	1093	19.93%	Liepaja	2	1277	61.71%	18.36%
18	2024-04-07	59.8	@ Daugavpils	1	1270	11.44%	FK RFS	1	1574	72.04%	16.53%
19	2024-04-16	59.5	@ Tukums 2000	2	1240	10.25%	Riga FC	1	1566	73.65%	16.11%
20	2024-05-14	58.5	@ Liepaja	1	1235	10.68%	Riga FC	1	1553	73.06%	16.26%
21	2024-08-23	57.7	Jelgava	3	1105	21.09%	@ Grobina	2	1250	60.41%	18.50%
22	2024-03-15	57.1	Valmiera	1	1378	16.74%	@ FK RFS	0	1574	65.42%	17.85%
23	2024-05-05	56.1	@ Valmiera	2	1378	16.41%	FK RFS	0	1605	65.80%	17.79%
24	2024-10-02	55.8	@ Auda	1	1421	69.04%	Tukums 2000	1	1183	13.76%	17.20%
25	2024-09-13	55.7	FK RFS	2	1654	59.98%	@ Valmiera	1	1486	21.47%	18.55%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-07-05	27.4	@ FK RFS	7	1638	83.71%	Jelgava	0	1150	4.05%	12.24%
2	2024-08-04	27.6	Valmiera	4	1474	74.63%	@ Jelgava	0	1133	9.54%	15.83%
3	2024-06-02	27.7	@ Riga FC	5	1569	78.85%	Metta	0	1183	6.75%	14.40%
4	2024-10-21	27.9	@ Auda	3	1420	74.95%	Jelgava	0	1101	9.32%	15.73%
5	2024-08-04	28.1	Riga FC	5	1602	79.41%	@ Tukums 2000	0	1179	6.41%	14.18%
6	2024-08-31	28.2	@ Valmiera	4	1477	73.72%	Metta	0	1176	10.19%	16.08%
7	2024-05-28	28.7	@ Valmiera	4	1437	70.87%	Jelgava	0	1176	12.33%	16.81%
8	2024-06-20	28.7	@ Valmiera	3	1479	74.84%	Metta	0	1162	9.40%	15.76%
9	2024-05-29	28.8	FK RFS	6	1601	78.67%	@ Metta	0	1192	6.86%	14.47%
10	2024-10-05	28.8	Riga FC	2	1624	83.95%	@ Jelgava	0	1102	3.93%	12.12%
11	2024-11-03	28.8	@ Riga FC	4	1641	82.00%	Metta	0	1192	4.93%	13.07%
12	2024-11-09	28.8	@ Auda	5	1440	70.22%	Metta	0	1188	12.83%	16.95%
13	2024-06-02	29.0	@ FK RFS	5	1610	79.58%	Grobina	0	1211	6.31%	14.12%
14	2024-09-30	29.0	FK RFS	2	1665	85.50%	@ Jelgava	0	1104	3.21%	11.29%
15	2024-10-27	29.2	@ Riga FC	10	1634	82.48%	Tukums 2000	1	1174	4.67%	12.84%
16	2024-06-22	29.6	Riga FC	6	1577	75.90%	@ Grobina	0	1215	8.66%	15.44%
17	2024-07-19	29.6	@ Riga FC	6	1596	82.16%	Jelgava	1	1144	4.85%	13.00%
18	2024-06-16	29.8	@ Auda	4	1379	66.13%	Metta	0	1176	16.14%	17.73%
19	2024-05-29	30.1	@ Riga FC	3	1563	76.67%	Tukums 2000	0	1216	8.15%	15.18%
20	2024-11-03	30.1	Auda	3	1431	68.95%	@ Tukums 2000	0	1167	13.83%	17.22%
21	2024-07-07	30.2	Riga FC	3	1591	77.45%	@ Liepaja	0	1204	7.63%	14.91%
22	2024-04-12	30.3	@ FK RFS	5	1570	75.04%	Tukums 2000	0	1250	9.26%	15.70%
23	2024-04-04	30.7	@ Riga FC	4	1548	73.22%	Liepaja	0	1255	10.56%	16.22%
24	2024-11-03	30.7	FK RFS	2	1660	83.24%	@ Grobina	0	1156	4.28%	12.48%
25	2024-10-19	30.8	Riga FC	5	1626	77.37%	@ Daugavpils	0	1240	7.68%	14.94%