2025 Virsliga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Riga FC

88 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Liepaja

7.77 points above expected

61 points · 53.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Auda

16.73 points below expected

45 points · 61.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Riga FC	36	27	7	2	88	85	26	+59	83.37	+4.63
2	FK RFS	36	28	3	5	87	100	39	+61	80.49	+6.51
3	Liepaja	36	18	7	11	61	59	55	+4	53.23	+7.77
4	Daugavpils	36	13	9	14	48	52	62	-10	46.99	+1.01
5	Auda	36	13	6	17	45	44	49	-5	61.73	-16.73
6	Jelgava	36	8	14	14	38	39	46	-7	39.36	-1.36
7	Tukums 2000	36	9	9	18	36	39	63	-24	37.43	-1.43
8	Super Nova	36	6	14	16	32	44	56	-12	33.14	-1.14
9	Grobina	36	8	8	20	32	33	64	-31	36.26	-4.26
10	Metta	36	8	7	21	31	39	74	-35	31.12	-0.12

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Liepaja	61	53.23	+7.77
2	FK RFS	87	80.49	+6.51
3	Riga FC	88	83.37	+4.63
4	Daugavpils	48	46.99	+1.01
5	Metta	31	31.12	-0.12

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Auda	45	61.73	-16.73
2	Grobina	32	36.26	-4.26
3	Tukums 2000	36	37.43	-1.43
4	Jelgava	38	39.36	-1.36
5	Super Nova	32	33.14	-1.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Riga FC	15	Apr 13 – Jul 1	1 in 432
2	Metta	3	Mar 16 – Apr 4	1 in 97
3	FK RFS	9	Jun 22 – Aug 31	1 in 20
4	Grobina	2	May 4 – May 10	1 in 14
5	Liepaja	4	Jun 17 – Jun 30	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Auda	4	Jul 20 – Aug 10	1 in 905
2	Metta	4	Apr 25 – May 11	1 in 35
3	Super Nova	4	Aug 30 – Sep 28	1 in 13
4	Riga FC	1	Mar 29 – Mar 29	1 in 11
5	FK RFS	1	Apr 4 – Apr 4	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Super Nova	6	May 6 – Jun 1	1 in 57
2	Metta	4	Mar 16 – Apr 8	1 in 50
3	Riga FC	31	Apr 3 – Nov 2	1 in 49
4	Jelgava	6	Sep 27 – Nov 9	1 in 26
5	Grobina	5	May 4 – May 26	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Metta	16	Apr 8 – Jul 2	1 in 121
2	Auda	6	May 1 – May 24	1 in 52
3	Riga FC	3	Mar 10 – Mar 29	1 in 36
4	Jelgava	7	Sep 21 – Nov 9	1 in 17
5	Grobina	8	Mar 16 – Apr 29	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Riga FC	1699	88	-12	8	12.2	-4.2
FK RFS	1650	87	+25	15	10.9	+4.1
Liepaja	1379	61	-21	7	6.8	+0.2
Daugavpils	1320	48	-19	5	7.9	-2.9
Auda	1359	45	-43	1	8.7	-7.7
Jelgava	1286	38	+1	5	6.7	-1.7
Tukums 2000	1264	36	+5	5	4.3	+0.7
Grobina	1230	32	+7	6	4.7	+1.3
Super Nova	1269	32	+30	6	4.7	+1.3
Metta	1198	31	+27	7	3.0	+4.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AUD	DAU	FR	GRO	JEL	LIE	MET	RIG	SN	T2
Auda	—	0-1-3 7.35	0-0-4 3.35	3-1-0 8.28	2-1-1 8.07	1-1-2 6.62	2-0-2 8.66	0-1-3 3.04	3-1-0 8.63	2-0-2 8.14
Daugavpils	3-1-0 3.73	—	0-0-4 2.11	2-0-2 7.02	2-1-1 6.50	1-1-2 4.74	2-1-1 7.41	1-1-2 1.78	0-3-1 7.28	2-1-1 6.68
FK RFS	4-0-0 7.74	4-0-0 9.12	—	4-0-0 9.93	2-1-1 9.69	2-1-1 8.78	3-0-1 10.10	1-1-2 4.80	4-0-0 10.00	4-0-0 9.75
Grobina	0-1-3 2.87	2-0-2 4.03	0-0-4 1.45	—	2-1-1 5.02	1-0-3 3.51	1-1-2 6.13	0-1-3 1.24	0-4-0 5.73	2-0-2 5.13
Jelgava	1-1-2 3.06	1-1-2 4.52	1-1-2 1.65	1-1-2 6.02	—	0-1-3 4.05	1-3-0 6.50	0-1-3 1.48	2-2-0 6.32	1-3-0 5.84
Liepaja	2-1-1 4.41	2-1-1 6.30	1-1-2 2.41	3-0-1 7.57	3-1-0 7.00	—	4-0-0 7.48	0-0-4 2.21	1-1-2 7.75	2-2-0 7.28
Metta	2-0-2 2.52	1-1-2 3.66	1-0-3 1.32	2-1-1 4.90	0-3-1 4.55	0-0-4 3.60	—	0-1-3 1.15	1-1-2 5.58	1-0-3 4.84
Riga FC	3-1-0 8.09	2-1-1 9.53	2-1-1 6.23	3-1-0 10.21	3-1-0 9.90	4-0-0 9.03	3-1-0 10.33	—	4-0-0 10.18	3-1-0 10.01
Super Nova	0-1-3 2.55	1-3-0 3.79	0-0-4 1.40	0-4-0 5.29	0-2-2 4.70	2-1-1 3.35	2-1-1 5.45	0-0-4 1.26	—	1-2-1 4.96
Tukums 2000	2-0-2 2.99	1-1-2 4.36	0-0-4 1.60	2-0-2 5.89	0-3-1 5.17	0-2-2 3.78	3-0-1 6.19	0-1-3 1.40	1-2-1 6.07	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.94	+9.6
Allowed	0.66	-12.8
Differential	0.94	+6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	9.17%	5.83%	3.06%	0.83%	0.83%	25.28%
1	9.17%	11.11%	5.83%	2.50%	2.50%	1.39%	32.50%
2	5.83%	5.83%	6.67%	3.33%	1.67%	1.11%	24.44%
3	3.06%	2.50%	3.33%	—	0.28%	—	9.17%
4	0.83%	2.50%	1.67%	0.28%	—	—	5.28%
5+	0.83%	1.39%	1.11%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	25.28%	32.50%	24.44%	9.17%	5.28%	3.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.48	1.48	+0.00
SD	1.34	1.34	1.95
CV	0.90	0.90	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	19.44%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
1	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	22.22%	13.89%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.36	-0.14
SD	1.10	1.29	1.78
CV	0.90	0.95	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
1	8.33%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	8.33%	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	30.56%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.72	-0.28
SD	1.05	1.63	1.94
CV	0.73	0.95	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	13.89%	—	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	30.56%	41.67%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	1.08	+1.69
SD	1.90	1.00	2.10
CV	0.68	0.92	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	13.89%	2.78%	—	5.56%	38.89%
1	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	36.11%
2	5.56%	—	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	25.00%	27.78%	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.92	1.78	-0.86
SD	0.91	1.51	1.76
CV	0.99	0.85	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	19.44%	2.78%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	—	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	52.78%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.28	-0.19
SD	1.13	0.81	1.31
CV	1.04	0.64	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	41.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	30.56%	22.22%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.53	+0.11
SD	1.22	1.32	1.94
CV	0.75	0.86	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	8.33%	—	38.89%
1	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	27.78%
2	—	2.78%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	25.00%	33.33%	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	2.06	-0.97
SD	1.11	1.33	1.72
CV	1.02	0.65	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	36.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	55.56%	22.22%	19.44%	—	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	0.72	+1.64
SD	1.48	0.97	1.51
CV	0.63	1.35	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	2.78%	22.22%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	50.00%
2	2.78%	—	8.33%	2.78%	—	2.78%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	27.78%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.56	-0.33
SD	1.05	1.40	1.77
CV	0.86	0.90	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	36.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	25.00%
2	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	30.56%	19.44%	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.75	-0.67
SD	0.97	1.54	1.67
CV	0.89	0.88	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Riga FC	1699	88	83.37	+4.63	84.0%	68	74	80	84	87	91	95
FK RFS	1650	87	80.49	+6.51	85.0%	67	67	76	80	84	92	101
Liepaja	1379	61	53.23	+7.77	86.0%	34	41	48	53	59	66	71
Auda	1359	45	61.73	-16.73	1.0%	45	48	57	62	66	73	80
Daugavpils	1320	48	46.99	+1.01	59.0%	36	36	41	46	51	59	69
Jelgava	1286	38	39.36	-1.36	48.0%	26	30	34	39	43	52	59
Super Nova	1269	32	33.14	-1.14	46.0%	17	23	29	33	38	43	48
Tukums 2000	1264	36	37.43	-1.43	43.0%	22	24	32	38	42	47	55
Grobina	1230	32	36.26	-4.26	33.0%	22	28	31	36	41	46	48
Metta	1198	31	31.12	-0.12	52.0%	16	20	27	31	36	41	44

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+15.56%

Strong Edge

46.11%23.33%30.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.

213 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.39 goals

Neutral

-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.8

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

66%

Riga FC, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.03/gm

Photo Finish

00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.26 * Some Luck: 5.26 to 7.9 * Lucky: 7.9 to 10.53 * Wild Swing: 10.53 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.71 * Close: 0.71 to 1.07 * Off: 1.07 to 1.42 * Way Off: 1.42 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.53 points

Some Luck

06.5816

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

00.892

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

86.00%

Liepaja

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

1.00%

Auda

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Balanced

00.240.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 172.23

2.74

Moderate Separation

12.552.953.5

Interquartile Edge

65%

Even

50%82%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

95%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Very Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Rare

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.49

Very Even

00.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.92

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.83

Near-Lock

00.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Very Upset-Prone

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Very Shaky

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.26

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.081

Well Within Noise

00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Riga FC	66.00%	34.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
FK RFS	34.00%	64.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Liepaja	—	—	22.00%	50.00%	19.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—
Daugavpils	—	—	4.00%	17.00%	40.00%	22.00%	9.00%	6.00%	2.00%	—
Auda	—	2.00%	71.00%	22.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Jelgava	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	14.00%	24.00%	21.00%	18.00%	13.00%	5.00%
Tukums 2000	—	—	—	4.00%	10.00%	20.00%	20.00%	19.00%	15.00%	12.00%
Super Nova	—	—	—	—	4.00%	8.00%	19.00%	20.00%	24.00%	25.00%
Grobina	—	—	—	3.00%	8.00%	16.00%	15.00%	19.00%	25.00%	14.00%
Metta	—	—	—	—	—	4.00%	15.00%	16.00%	21.00%	44.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Auda	100%	—	—
Daugavpils	98.00%	2.00%	—
FK RFS	100%	—	—
Liepaja	100%	—	—
Riga FC	100%	—	—
Jelgava	82.00%	13.00%	5.00%
Tukums 2000	73.00%	15.00%	12.00%
Grobina	61.00%	25.00%	14.00%
Super Nova	51.00%	24.00%	25.00%
Metta	35.00%	21.00%	44.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2025-03-05	FK RFS	L 1-2	56.9	1484	1611	28.05%	24.32%	47.63%	-0.34	-6.5	0
2025-03-05	@ Auda	W 2-1	56.9	1611	1484	47.63%	24.32%	28.05%	+0.34	+6.5	3
2025-03-06	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.3	1264	1249	47.26%	24.35%	28.39%	+0.33	-0.9	1
2025-03-06	@ Grobina	D 1-1	53.3	1249	1264	28.39%	24.35%	47.26%	-0.33	+0.9	1
2025-03-06	Super Nova	W 2-0	27.7	1617	1175	83.89%	11.91%	4.20%	+2.33	+1.8	3
2025-03-06	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	27.7	1175	1617	4.20%	11.91%	83.89%	-2.33	-1.8	0
2025-03-07	Metta	W 4-0	31.4	1358	1285	54.45%	23.44%	22.11%	+0.60	+20.1	3
2025-03-07	@ Liepaja	L 0-4	31.4	1285	1358	22.11%	23.44%	54.45%	-0.60	-20.1	0
2025-03-07	Tukums 2000	W 3-0	32.9	1326	1285	50.59%	24.00%	25.41%	+0.45	+17.4	3
2025-03-07	@ Daugavpils	L 0-3	32.9	1285	1326	25.41%	24.00%	50.59%	-0.45	-17.4	0
2025-03-10	Auda	D 2-2	72.4	1619	1477	61.81%	21.82%	16.38%	+0.92	-1.7	4
2025-03-10	@ Riga FC	D 2-2	72.4	1477	1619	16.38%	21.82%	61.81%	-0.92	+1.7	1
2025-03-11	Daugavpils	W 3-2	53.5	1263	1344	33.99%	24.69%	41.32%	-0.12	+8.4	4
2025-03-11	@ Grobina	L 2-3	53.5	1344	1263	41.32%	24.69%	33.99%	+0.12	-8.4	3
2025-03-11	Jelgava	W 1-0	34.3	1618	1250	79.69%	14.35%	5.96%	+1.98	+1.4	6
2025-03-11	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	34.3	1250	1618	5.96%	14.35%	79.69%	-1.98	-1.4	1
2025-03-12	Metta	W 4-0	36.9	1173	1264	32.58%	24.64%	42.79%	-0.17	+34.4	3
2025-03-12	@ Super Nova	L 0-4	36.9	1264	1173	42.79%	24.64%	32.58%	+0.17	-34.4	0
2025-03-12	Tukums 2000	D 0-0	50.6	1378	1268	58.59%	22.62%	18.79%	+0.78	-2.2	4
2025-03-12	@ Liepaja	D 0-0	50.6	1268	1378	18.79%	22.62%	58.59%	-0.78	+2.2	1
2025-03-15	FK RFS	L 1-2	46.6	1336	1619	14.17%	20.87%	64.96%	-1.08	-3.5	3
2025-03-15	@ Daugavpils	W 2-1	46.6	1619	1336	64.96%	20.87%	14.17%	+1.08	+3.5	9
2025-03-15	Riga FC	D 1-1	60.1	1248	1617	9.70%	18.08%	72.22%	-1.48	+3.2	2
2025-03-15	@ Jelgava	D 1-1	60.1	1617	1248	72.22%	18.08%	9.70%	+1.48	-3.2	5
2025-03-16	Grobina	W 4-1	36.0	1376	1272	57.91%	22.77%	19.32%	+0.75	+11.5	7
2025-03-16	@ Liepaja	L 1-4	36.0	1272	1376	19.32%	22.77%	57.91%	-0.75	-11.5	4
2025-03-16	Super Nova	W 1-0	32.6	1479	1208	73.09%	17.69%	9.22%	+1.53	+2.3	4
2025-03-16	@ Auda	L 0-1	32.6	1208	1479	9.22%	17.69%	73.09%	-1.53	-2.3	3
2025-03-16	Tukums 2000	W 3-2	51.3	1230	1270	39.73%	24.73%	35.54%	+0.07	+7.5	3
2025-03-16	@ Metta	L 2-3	51.3	1270	1230	35.54%	24.73%	39.73%	-0.07	-7.4	1
2025-03-29	Daugavpils	L 1-2	63.2	1614	1332	73.90%	17.32%	8.78%	+1.58	-14.3	5
2025-03-29	@ Riga FC	W 2-1	63.2	1332	1614	8.78%	17.32%	73.90%	-1.58	+14.3	6
2025-03-29	Liepaja	W 4-1	41.3	1622	1388	70.23%	18.93%	10.84%	+1.36	+6.4	12
2025-03-29	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	41.3	1388	1622	10.84%	18.93%	70.23%	-1.36	-6.4	7
2025-03-30	Jelgava	W 2-0	30.8	1481	1252	69.81%	19.10%	11.09%	+1.34	+5.4	7
2025-03-30	@ Auda	L 0-2	30.8	1252	1481	11.09%	19.10%	69.81%	-1.34	-5.3	2
2025-03-30	Metta	L 2-4	50.9	1260	1238	48.22%	24.26%	27.52%	+0.36	-15.5	4
2025-03-30	@ Grobina	W 4-2	50.9	1238	1260	27.52%	24.26%	48.22%	-0.36	+15.5	6
2025-03-31	Super Nova	D 2-2	58.7	1262	1206	52.49%	23.75%	23.76%	+0.52	-1.0	2
2025-03-31	@ Tukums 2000	D 2-2	58.7	1206	1262	23.76%	23.75%	52.49%	-0.52	+1.0	4
2025-04-03	Riga FC	L 2-5	46.7	1381	1600	18.86%	22.64%	58.49%	-0.77	-9.7	7
2025-04-03	@ Liepaja	W 5-2	46.7	1600	1381	58.49%	22.64%	18.86%	+0.77	+9.7	8
2025-04-04	Auda	W 2-1	54.3	1346	1487	26.53%	24.15%	49.33%	-0.40	+10.2	9
2025-04-04	@ Daugavpils	L 1-2	54.3	1487	1346	49.33%	24.15%	26.53%	+0.40	-10.2	7
2025-04-04	FK RFS	W 1-0	55.8	1253	1629	9.40%	17.84%	72.75%	-1.51	+15.0	9
2025-04-04	@ Metta	L 0-1	55.8	1629	1253	72.75%	17.84%	9.40%	+1.51	-15.0	12
2025-04-05	Grobina	W 2-0	35.6	1261	1245	47.43%	24.33%	28.24%	+0.33	+13.1	5
2025-04-05	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-2	35.6	1245	1261	28.24%	24.33%	47.43%	-0.33	-13.1	4
2025-04-05	Super Nova	W 2-1	43.0	1246	1207	50.39%	24.03%	25.58%	+0.44	+6.0	5
2025-04-05	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	43.0	1207	1246	25.58%	24.03%	50.39%	-0.44	-6.0	4
2025-04-08	Metta	D 1-1	61.3	1609	1268	78.03%	15.25%	6.72%	+1.86	-3.7	9
2025-04-08	@ Riga FC	D 1-1	61.3	1268	1609	6.72%	15.25%	78.03%	-1.86	+3.7	10
2025-04-09	Liepaja	W 3-0	34.5	1477	1371	58.01%	22.75%	19.24%	+0.75	+13.6	10
2025-04-09	@ Auda	L 0-3	34.5	1371	1477	19.24%	22.75%	58.01%	-0.75	-13.6	7
2025-04-09	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	32.0	1614	1274	77.89%	15.33%	6.78%	+1.85	+3.1	15
2025-04-09	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	32.0	1274	1614	6.78%	15.33%	77.89%	-1.85	-3.1	5
2025-04-10	Daugavpils	W 4-1	43.8	1252	1357	30.87%	24.54%	44.59%	-0.23	+22.9	8
2025-04-10	@ Jelgava	L 1-4	43.8	1357	1252	44.59%	24.54%	30.87%	+0.23	-22.9	9
2025-04-10	Grobina	D 1-1	53.0	1201	1232	40.94%	24.70%	34.36%	+0.11	-0.3	5
2025-04-10	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.0	1232	1201	34.36%	24.70%	40.94%	-0.11	+0.3	5
2025-04-13	Auda	L 0-1	38.1	1272	1490	18.88%	22.65%	58.47%	-0.77	-4.9	10
2025-04-13	@ Metta	W 1-0	38.1	1490	1272	58.47%	22.65%	18.88%	+0.77	+4.9	13
2025-04-13	Riga FC	L 0-3	31.9	1271	1606	11.30%	19.25%	69.46%	-1.32	-7.9	5
2025-04-13	@ Tukums 2000	W 3-0	31.9	1606	1271	69.46%	19.25%	11.30%	+1.32	+7.9	12
2025-04-14	Jelgava	W 1-0	37.3	1358	1275	55.49%	23.26%	21.26%	+0.64	+5.4	10
2025-04-14	@ Liepaja	L 0-1	37.3	1275	1358	21.26%	23.26%	55.49%	-0.64	-5.4	8
2025-04-15	FK RFS	L 1-4	34.9	1232	1617	9.03%	17.53%	73.44%	-1.55	-5.2	5
2025-04-15	@ Grobina	W 4-1	34.9	1617	1232	73.44%	17.53%	9.03%	+1.55	+5.2	18
2025-04-15	Super Nova	D 1-1	54.1	1334	1200	60.98%	22.04%	16.98%	+0.88	-2.2	10
2025-04-15	@ Daugavpils	D 1-1	54.1	1200	1334	16.98%	22.04%	60.98%	-0.88	+2.2	6
2025-04-18	Jelgava	D 0-0	49.3	1267	1270	44.82%	24.53%	30.65%	+0.24	-0.7	11
2025-04-18	@ Metta	D 0-0	49.3	1270	1267	30.65%	24.53%	44.82%	-0.24	+0.7	9
2025-04-18	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	31.2	1495	1263	69.96%	19.04%	11.00%	+1.34	+5.3	16
2025-04-18	@ Auda	L 0-2	31.2	1263	1495	11.00%	19.04%	69.96%	-1.34	-5.3	5
2025-04-19	Grobina	W 3-0	27.5	1614	1227	80.85%	13.70%	5.45%	+2.07	+3.5	15
2025-04-19	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	27.5	1227	1614	5.45%	13.70%	80.85%	-2.07	-3.5	5
2025-04-19	Liepaja	W 4-2	48.3	1331	1363	40.85%	24.71%	34.44%	+0.11	+11.9	13
2025-04-19	@ Daugavpils	L 2-4	48.3	1363	1331	34.44%	24.71%	40.85%	-0.11	-11.9	10
2025-04-20	FK RFS	L 1-2	39.2	1202	1622	7.72%	16.32%	75.96%	-1.72	-1.8	6
2025-04-20	@ Super Nova	W 2-1	39.2	1622	1202	75.96%	16.32%	7.72%	+1.72	+1.8	21
2025-04-23	Tukums 2000	W 2-1	44.3	1271	1258	46.88%	24.38%	28.74%	+0.31	+6.6	12
2025-04-23	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	44.3	1258	1271	28.74%	24.38%	46.88%	-0.31	-6.6	5
2025-04-24	Grobina	W 2-0	29.5	1500	1223	73.52%	17.49%	8.98%	+1.56	+4.2	19
2025-04-24	@ Auda	L 0-2	29.5	1223	1500	8.98%	17.49%	73.52%	-1.56	-4.2	5
2025-04-25	Metta	W 2-0	33.9	1343	1266	54.88%	23.37%	21.75%	+0.62	+10.5	16
2025-04-25	@ Daugavpils	L 0-2	33.9	1266	1343	21.75%	23.37%	54.88%	-0.62	-10.5	11
2025-04-25	Super Nova	D 2-2	59.7	1351	1201	62.70%	21.56%	15.73%	+0.96	-1.8	11
2025-04-25	@ Liepaja	D 2-2	59.7	1201	1351	15.73%	21.56%	62.70%	-0.96	+1.8	7
2025-04-26	Riga FC	L 0-1	61.1	1624	1617	46.11%	24.44%	29.45%	+0.29	-10.2	21
2025-04-26	@ FK RFS	W 1-0	61.1	1617	1624	29.45%	24.44%	46.11%	-0.29	+10.2	18
2025-04-29	Grobina	W 1-0	37.4	1277	1219	52.64%	23.73%	23.63%	+0.53	+6.0	15
2025-04-29	@ Jelgava	L 0-1	37.4	1219	1277	23.63%	23.73%	52.64%	-0.53	-6.0	5
2025-04-30	Daugavpils	D 0-0	49.7	1252	1354	31.12%	24.56%	44.32%	-0.22	+0.7	6
2025-04-30	@ Tukums 2000	D 0-0	49.7	1354	1252	44.32%	24.56%	31.12%	+0.22	-0.7	17
2025-05-01	Auda	W 1-0	49.4	1614	1505	58.43%	22.66%	18.91%	+0.77	+4.9	24
2025-05-01	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	49.4	1505	1614	18.91%	22.66%	58.43%	-0.77	-4.9	19
2025-05-01	Riga FC	L 1-5	31.9	1202	1627	7.54%	16.13%	76.33%	-1.74	-5.5	7
2025-05-01	@ Super Nova	W 5-1	31.9	1627	1202	76.33%	16.13%	7.54%	+1.74	+5.5	21
2025-05-02	Liepaja	L 2-4	46.8	1256	1350	32.19%	24.62%	43.19%	-0.19	-11.3	11
2025-05-02	@ Metta	W 4-2	46.8	1350	1256	43.19%	24.62%	32.19%	+0.19	+11.3	14
2025-05-04	Daugavpils	W 1-0	45.6	1213	1353	26.57%	24.15%	49.28%	-0.40	+10.8	8
2025-05-04	@ Grobina	L 0-1	45.6	1353	1213	49.28%	24.15%	26.57%	+0.40	-10.8	17
2025-05-05	FK RFS	D 2-2	66.2	1283	1618	11.26%	19.22%	69.52%	-1.32	+2.2	16
2025-05-05	@ Jelgava	D 2-2	66.2	1618	1283	69.52%	19.22%	11.26%	+1.32	-2.2	25
2025-05-05	Riga FC	L 1-3	54.8	1500	1633	27.33%	24.24%	48.43%	-0.37	-11.0	19
2025-05-05	@ Auda	W 3-1	54.8	1633	1500	48.43%	24.24%	27.33%	+0.37	+11.0	24
2025-05-06	Liepaja	D 2-2	59.2	1252	1361	30.31%	24.51%	45.18%	-0.25	+0.5	7
2025-05-06	@ Tukums 2000	D 2-2	59.2	1361	1252	45.18%	24.51%	30.31%	+0.25	-0.5	15
2025-05-06	Super Nova	L 0-2	42.2	1244	1197	51.34%	23.91%	24.76%	+0.48	-21.1	11
2025-05-06	@ Metta	W 2-0	42.2	1197	1244	24.76%	23.91%	51.34%	-0.48	+21.1	10
2025-05-09	Daugavpils	W 5-1	36.9	1616	1342	73.30%	17.60%	9.11%	+1.54	+6.8	28
2025-05-09	@ FK RFS	L 1-5	36.9	1342	1616	9.11%	17.60%	73.30%	-1.54	-6.8	17
2025-05-10	Jelgava	W 2-0	33.0	1644	1285	79.12%	14.66%	6.21%	+1.94	+2.8	27
2025-05-10	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	33.0	1285	1644	6.21%	14.66%	79.12%	-1.94	-2.8	16
2025-05-10	Liepaja	W 2-0	42.1	1224	1360	26.97%	24.20%	48.83%	-0.39	+20.2	11
2025-05-10	@ Grobina	L 0-2	42.1	1360	1224	48.83%	24.20%	26.97%	+0.39	-20.2	15
2025-05-11	Auda	D 1-1	55.8	1218	1489	14.99%	21.25%	63.76%	-1.02	+2.5	11
2025-05-11	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	55.8	1489	1218	63.76%	21.25%	14.99%	+1.02	-2.5	20
2025-05-11	Metta	W 2-0	35.0	1253	1223	49.08%	24.17%	26.74%	+0.39	+12.5	10
2025-05-11	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-2	35.0	1223	1253	26.74%	24.17%	49.08%	-0.39	-12.5	11
2025-05-14	FK RFS	W 2-1	62.1	1340	1623	14.20%	20.88%	64.92%	-1.07	+12.9	18
2025-05-14	@ Liepaja	L 1-2	62.1	1623	1340	64.92%	20.88%	14.20%	+1.07	-12.9	28
2025-05-14	Riga FC	L 0-1	41.9	1335	1647	12.52%	20.00%	67.48%	-1.21	-3.2	17
2025-05-14	@ Daugavpils	W 1-0	41.9	1647	1335	67.48%	20.00%	12.52%	+1.21	+3.2	30
2025-05-15	Auda	W 3-1	51.6	1283	1486	20.17%	23.00%	56.84%	-0.70	+19.9	19
2025-05-15	@ Jelgava	L 1-3	51.6	1486	1283	56.84%	23.00%	20.17%	+0.70	-19.9	20
2025-05-15	Grobina	D 1-1	53.1	1211	1244	40.64%	24.71%	34.65%	+0.10	-0.3	12
2025-05-15	@ Metta	D 1-1	53.1	1244	1211	34.65%	24.71%	40.64%	-0.10	+0.3	12
2025-05-16	Tukums 2000	D 1-1	53.1	1220	1265	39.02%	24.74%	36.24%	+0.05	-0.1	12
2025-05-16	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.1	1265	1220	36.24%	24.74%	39.02%	-0.05	+0.1	11
2025-05-19	Liepaja	W 2-0	37.0	1650	1353	74.99%	16.80%	8.22%	+1.65	+3.8	33
2025-05-19	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	37.0	1353	1650	8.22%	16.80%	74.99%	-1.65	-3.8	18
2025-05-20	Daugavpils	D 1-1	57.2	1466	1332	61.03%	22.03%	16.94%	+0.89	-2.2	21
2025-05-20	@ Auda	D 1-1	57.2	1332	1466	16.94%	22.03%	61.03%	-0.89	+2.2	18
2025-05-20	Metta	W 2-0	29.0	1610	1211	81.59%	13.28%	5.14%	+2.13	+2.2	31
2025-05-20	@ FK RFS	L 0-2	29.0	1211	1610	5.14%	13.28%	81.59%	-2.13	-2.2	12
2025-05-21	Jelgava	D 0-0	49.2	1220	1303	33.75%	24.68%	41.57%	-0.13	+0.4	13
2025-05-21	@ Super Nova	D 0-0	49.2	1303	1220	41.57%	24.68%	33.75%	+0.13	-0.4	20
2025-05-21	Tukums 2000	W 2-0	37.1	1244	1265	42.36%	24.66%	32.98%	+0.16	+14.8	15
2025-05-21	@ Grobina	L 0-2	37.1	1265	1244	32.98%	24.66%	42.36%	-0.16	-14.8	11
2025-05-24	Auda	D 0-0	52.7	1349	1464	29.55%	24.45%	46.00%	-0.28	+0.9	19
2025-05-24	@ Liepaja	D 0-0	52.7	1464	1349	46.00%	24.45%	29.55%	+0.28	-0.9	22
2025-05-24	Riga FC	L 0-3	29.0	1208	1654	6.87%	15.42%	77.71%	-1.84	-4.5	12
2025-05-24	@ Metta	W 3-0	29.0	1654	1208	77.71%	15.42%	6.87%	+1.84	+4.5	36
2025-05-25	FK RFS	L 2-5	38.8	1251	1612	10.01%	18.32%	71.67%	-1.44	-5.1	11
2025-05-25	@ Tukums 2000	W 5-2	38.8	1612	1251	71.67%	18.32%	10.01%	+1.44	+5.1	34
2025-05-25	Jelgava	W 1-0	39.2	1334	1302	49.44%	24.14%	26.42%	+0.41	+6.6	21
2025-05-25	@ Daugavpils	L 0-1	39.2	1302	1334	26.42%	24.14%	49.44%	-0.41	-6.6	20
2025-05-26	Super Nova	D 1-1	53.3	1259	1221	50.22%	24.05%	25.73%	+0.44	-1.2	16
2025-05-26	@ Grobina	D 1-1	53.3	1221	1259	25.73%	24.05%	50.22%	-0.44	+1.2	14
2025-05-29	Metta	W 4-1	31.9	1463	1204	72.18%	18.10%	9.72%	+1.47	+5.7	25
2025-05-29	@ Auda	L 1-4	31.9	1204	1463	9.72%	18.10%	72.18%	-1.47	-5.7	12
2025-05-30	Liepaja	L 0-1	42.8	1296	1350	37.63%	24.75%	37.62%	+0.00	-8.7	20
2025-05-30	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	42.8	1350	1296	37.62%	24.75%	37.63%	+0.00	+8.7	22
2025-05-31	Grobina	W 6-0	29.5	1617	1258	79.18%	14.63%	6.19%	+1.95	+7.7	37
2025-05-31	@ FK RFS	L 0-6	29.5	1258	1617	6.19%	14.63%	79.18%	-1.95	-7.7	16
2025-05-31	Tukums 2000	W 3-0	28.9	1658	1245	82.33%	12.84%	4.83%	+2.20	+3.0	39
2025-05-31	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	28.9	1245	1658	4.83%	12.84%	82.33%	-2.20	-3.0	11
2025-06-01	Daugavpils	W 4-1	44.1	1222	1341	29.02%	24.41%	46.58%	-0.30	+23.8	17
2025-06-01	@ Super Nova	L 1-4	44.1	1341	1222	46.58%	24.41%	29.02%	+0.30	-23.8	21
2025-06-13	Auda	L 2-4	43.0	1242	1469	18.23%	22.46%	59.31%	-0.81	-6.9	11
2025-06-13	@ Tukums 2000	W 4-2	43.0	1469	1242	59.31%	22.46%	18.23%	+0.81	+6.9	28
2025-06-13	Daugavpils	D 1-1	54.6	1359	1317	50.60%	24.00%	25.40%	+0.45	-1.2	23
2025-06-13	@ Liepaja	D 1-1	54.6	1317	1359	25.40%	24.00%	50.60%	-0.45	+1.2	22
2025-06-13	Metta	W 2-1	41.3	1287	1198	56.21%	23.12%	20.67%	+0.67	+5.0	23
2025-06-13	@ Jelgava	L 1-2	41.3	1198	1287	20.67%	23.12%	56.21%	-0.67	-5.0	12
2025-06-14	Riga FC	L 0-2	33.6	1250	1661	8.03%	16.62%	75.35%	-1.68	-3.7	16
2025-06-14	@ Grobina	W 2-0	33.6	1661	1250	75.35%	16.62%	8.03%	+1.68	+3.7	42
2025-06-14	Super Nova	W 2-1	39.2	1625	1246	80.41%	13.95%	5.64%	+2.04	+1.2	40
2025-06-14	@ FK RFS	L 1-2	39.2	1246	1625	5.64%	13.95%	80.41%	-2.04	-1.2	17
2025-06-17	Daugavpils	D 2-2	58.7	1193	1318	28.26%	24.34%	47.40%	-0.33	+0.7	13
2025-06-17	@ Metta	D 2-2	58.7	1318	1193	47.40%	24.34%	28.26%	+0.33	-0.7	23
2025-06-17	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.3	1236	1292	37.35%	24.75%	37.90%	-0.01	+0.0	12
2025-06-17	@ Tukums 2000	D 1-1	53.3	1292	1236	37.90%	24.75%	37.35%	+0.01	-0.0	24
2025-06-17	Liepaja	L 1-3	41.9	1244	1358	29.75%	24.47%	45.78%	-0.28	-11.8	17
2025-06-17	@ Super Nova	W 3-1	41.9	1358	1244	45.78%	24.47%	29.75%	+0.28	+11.8	26
2025-06-18	Auda	L 1-2	42.1	1247	1476	18.01%	22.39%	59.60%	-0.82	-4.4	16
2025-06-18	@ Grobina	W 2-1	42.1	1476	1247	59.60%	22.39%	18.01%	+0.82	+4.4	31
2025-06-18	FK RFS	W 3-1	57.6	1665	1626	50.26%	24.04%	25.70%	+0.44	+10.5	45
2025-06-18	@ Riga FC	L 1-3	57.6	1626	1665	25.70%	24.04%	50.26%	-0.44	-10.5	40
2025-06-21	Metta	W 1-0	34.0	1369	1194	65.08%	20.83%	14.09%	+1.08	+3.7	29
2025-06-21	@ Liepaja	L 0-1	34.0	1194	1369	14.09%	20.83%	65.08%	-1.08	-3.7	13
2025-06-21	Tukums 2000	L 1-2	52.1	1318	1236	55.46%	23.26%	21.28%	+0.64	-11.3	23
2025-06-21	@ Daugavpils	W 2-1	52.1	1236	1318	21.28%	23.26%	55.46%	-0.64	+11.3	15
2025-06-22	Auda	W 1-0	47.9	1616	1480	61.22%	21.98%	16.80%	+0.89	+4.3	43
2025-06-22	@ FK RFS	L 0-1	47.9	1480	1616	16.80%	21.98%	61.22%	-0.89	-4.4	31
2025-06-22	Grobina	L 0-1	46.0	1292	1242	51.62%	23.87%	24.51%	+0.49	-11.2	24
2025-06-22	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	46.0	1242	1292	24.51%	23.87%	51.62%	-0.49	+11.2	19
2025-06-22	Super Nova	W 2-0	30.9	1676	1233	83.93%	11.88%	4.19%	+2.34	+1.8	48
2025-06-22	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	30.9	1233	1676	4.19%	11.88%	83.93%	-2.34	-1.8	17
2025-06-25	Liepaja	L 1-3	41.5	1247	1373	28.16%	24.33%	47.51%	-0.34	-11.3	15
2025-06-25	@ Tukums 2000	W 3-1	41.5	1373	1247	47.51%	24.33%	28.16%	+0.34	+11.3	32
2025-06-26	FK RFS	L 0-1	38.3	1281	1620	11.05%	19.07%	69.88%	-1.34	-2.8	24
2025-06-26	@ Jelgava	W 1-0	38.3	1620	1281	69.88%	19.07%	11.05%	+1.34	+2.8	46
2025-06-26	Grobina	W 3-2	47.8	1307	1253	52.03%	23.81%	24.16%	+0.51	+5.5	26
2025-06-26	@ Daugavpils	L 2-3	47.8	1253	1307	24.16%	23.81%	52.03%	-0.51	-5.5	19
2025-06-27	Metta	D 1-1	53.2	1231	1190	50.51%	24.01%	25.48%	+0.45	-1.2	18
2025-06-27	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.2	1190	1231	25.48%	24.01%	50.51%	-0.45	+1.2	14
2025-06-27	Riga FC	L 1-3	52.9	1476	1677	20.33%	23.04%	56.64%	-0.69	-8.5	31
2025-06-27	@ Auda	W 3-1	52.9	1677	1476	56.64%	23.04%	20.33%	+0.69	+8.5	51
2025-06-30	FK RFS	L 1-7	37.0	1312	1623	12.53%	20.01%	67.46%	-1.21	-14.0	26
2025-06-30	@ Daugavpils	W 7-1	37.0	1623	1312	67.46%	20.01%	12.53%	+1.21	+14.0	49
2025-06-30	Grobina	W 2-0	32.2	1384	1248	61.28%	21.96%	16.76%	+0.90	+8.2	35
2025-06-30	@ Liepaja	L 0-2	32.2	1248	1384	16.76%	21.96%	61.28%	-0.90	-8.2	19
2025-07-01	Auda	L 0-1	36.5	1230	1467	17.35%	22.17%	60.48%	-0.86	-4.5	18
2025-07-01	@ Super Nova	W 1-0	36.5	1467	1230	60.48%	22.17%	17.35%	+0.86	+4.5	34
2025-07-01	Jelgava	W 3-0	31.1	1686	1278	82.06%	13.00%	4.94%	+2.17	+3.1	54
2025-07-01	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	31.1	1278	1686	4.94%	13.00%	82.06%	-2.17	-3.1	24
2025-07-02	Tukums 2000	L 0-3	36.5	1191	1236	39.09%	24.74%	36.17%	+0.05	-24.5	14
2025-07-02	@ Metta	W 3-0	36.5	1236	1191	36.17%	24.74%	39.09%	-0.05	+24.5	18
2025-07-04	Liepaja	W 2-1	47.6	1637	1393	71.01%	18.61%	10.38%	+1.40	+2.5	52
2025-07-04	@ FK RFS	L 1-2	47.6	1393	1637	10.38%	18.61%	71.01%	-1.40	-2.5	35
2025-07-05	Jelgava	W 2-0	31.9	1472	1275	67.00%	20.17%	12.82%	+1.18	+6.2	37
2025-07-05	@ Auda	L 0-2	31.9	1275	1472	12.82%	20.17%	67.00%	-1.18	-6.2	24
2025-07-06	Daugavpils	D 1-1	65.6	1689	1298	81.09%	13.56%	5.35%	+2.09	-3.8	55
2025-07-06	@ Riga FC	D 1-1	65.6	1298	1689	5.35%	13.56%	81.09%	-2.09	+3.8	27
2025-07-06	Metta	L 0-1	46.4	1240	1167	54.39%	23.45%	22.16%	+0.60	-11.8	19
2025-07-06	@ Grobina	W 1-0	46.4	1167	1240	22.16%	23.45%	54.39%	-0.60	+11.8	17
2025-07-06	Tukums 2000	W 1-0	41.1	1225	1260	40.42%	24.72%	34.87%	+0.09	+8.2	21
2025-07-06	@ Super Nova	L 0-1	41.1	1260	1225	34.87%	24.72%	40.42%	-0.09	-8.2	18
2025-07-19	FK RFS	L 0-4	26.9	1179	1640	6.40%	14.89%	78.71%	-1.91	-5.5	17
2025-07-19	@ Metta	W 4-0	26.9	1640	1179	78.71%	14.89%	6.40%	+1.91	+5.5	55
2025-07-19	Riga FC	L 2-3	55.7	1390	1685	13.45%	20.51%	66.03%	-1.13	-3.1	35
2025-07-19	@ Liepaja	W 3-2	55.7	1685	1390	66.03%	20.51%	13.45%	+1.13	+3.1	58
2025-07-20	Daugavpils	L 1-3	53.7	1478	1302	65.11%	20.82%	14.06%	+1.08	-22.4	37
2025-07-20	@ Auda	W 3-1	53.7	1302	1478	14.06%	20.82%	65.11%	-1.08	+22.5	30
2025-07-20	Super Nova	W 1-0	38.3	1269	1233	49.81%	24.09%	26.10%	+0.42	+6.5	27
2025-07-20	@ Jelgava	L 0-1	38.3	1233	1269	26.10%	24.09%	49.81%	-0.42	-6.5	21
2025-07-21	Grobina	W 2-1	43.7	1252	1228	48.36%	24.25%	27.39%	+0.37	+6.4	21
2025-07-21	@ Tukums 2000	L 1-2	43.7	1228	1252	27.39%	24.25%	48.36%	-0.37	-6.4	19
2025-07-26	Grobina	D 0-0	49.0	1227	1222	45.93%	24.46%	29.62%	+0.28	-0.8	22
2025-07-26	@ Super Nova	D 0-0	49.0	1222	1227	29.62%	24.46%	45.93%	-0.28	+0.9	20
2025-07-26	Tukums 2000	W 6-2	34.7	1645	1258	80.84%	13.71%	5.45%	+2.07	+3.2	58
2025-07-26	@ FK RFS	L 2-6	34.7	1258	1645	5.45%	13.71%	80.84%	-2.07	-3.2	21
2025-07-27	Auda	W 2-0	43.4	1387	1455	35.64%	24.73%	39.63%	-0.07	+17.1	38
2025-07-27	@ Liepaja	L 0-2	43.4	1455	1387	39.63%	24.73%	35.64%	+0.07	-17.1	37
2025-07-27	Jelgava	W 2-0	34.8	1324	1275	51.56%	23.88%	24.56%	+0.49	+11.6	33
2025-07-27	@ Daugavpils	L 0-2	34.8	1275	1324	24.56%	23.88%	51.56%	-0.49	-11.6	27
2025-07-27	Metta	W 3-2	41.8	1688	1173	87.31%	9.74%	2.95%	+2.68	+0.6	61
2025-07-27	@ Riga FC	L 2-3	41.8	1173	1688	2.95%	9.74%	87.31%	-2.68	-0.6	17
2025-08-02	Daugavpils	D 1-1	53.5	1226	1336	30.15%	24.50%	45.36%	-0.26	+0.7	23
2025-08-02	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.5	1336	1226	45.36%	24.50%	30.15%	+0.26	-0.7	34
2025-08-02	Liepaja	L 1-2	44.5	1263	1404	26.49%	24.14%	49.37%	-0.40	-6.2	27
2025-08-02	@ Jelgava	W 2-1	44.5	1404	1263	49.37%	24.14%	26.49%	+0.40	+6.2	41
2025-08-03	FK RFS	L 2-3	45.3	1222	1648	7.51%	16.11%	76.38%	-1.74	-1.6	20
2025-08-03	@ Grobina	W 3-2	45.3	1648	1222	76.38%	16.11%	7.51%	+1.74	+1.6	61
2025-08-03	Metta	L 0-1	51.0	1438	1172	72.69%	17.87%	9.44%	+1.51	-15.0	37
2025-08-03	@ Auda	W 1-0	51.0	1172	1438	9.44%	17.87%	72.69%	-1.51	+15.0	20
2025-08-03	Riga FC	L 0-1	37.6	1255	1689	7.24%	15.83%	76.93%	-1.78	-1.8	21
2025-08-03	@ Tukums 2000	W 1-0	37.6	1689	1255	76.93%	15.83%	7.24%	+1.78	+1.8	64
2025-08-09	Daugavpils	W 2-1	44.0	1410	1335	54.62%	23.41%	21.96%	+0.61	+5.3	44
2025-08-09	@ Liepaja	L 1-2	44.0	1335	1410	21.96%	23.41%	54.62%	-0.61	-5.3	34
2025-08-09	Jelgava	D 2-2	58.4	1188	1257	35.48%	24.73%	39.79%	-0.07	+0.1	21
2025-08-09	@ Metta	D 2-2	58.4	1257	1188	39.79%	24.73%	35.48%	+0.07	-0.2	28
2025-08-10	Auda	W 1-0	47.4	1253	1423	23.33%	23.67%	53.00%	-0.54	+11.5	24
2025-08-10	@ Tukums 2000	L 0-1	47.4	1423	1253	53.00%	23.67%	23.33%	+0.54	-11.5	37
2025-08-10	Grobina	W 2-0	30.6	1691	1221	85.26%	11.06%	3.68%	+2.46	+1.5	67
2025-08-10	@ Riga FC	L 0-2	30.6	1221	1691	3.68%	11.06%	85.26%	-2.46	-1.5	20
2025-08-10	Super Nova	W 4-1	32.8	1650	1227	82.89%	12.51%	4.60%	+2.24	+2.4	64
2025-08-10	@ FK RFS	L 1-4	32.8	1227	1650	4.60%	12.51%	82.89%	-2.24	-2.4	23
2025-08-23	Metta	W 4-2	40.7	1330	1188	61.87%	21.80%	16.33%	+0.92	+6.2	37
2025-08-23	@ Daugavpils	L 2-4	40.7	1188	1330	16.33%	21.80%	61.87%	-0.92	-6.2	21
2025-08-23	Tukums 2000	D 1-1	53.3	1257	1265	44.19%	24.57%	31.25%	+0.22	-0.6	29
2025-08-23	@ Jelgava	D 1-1	53.3	1265	1257	31.25%	24.57%	44.19%	-0.22	+0.6	25
2025-08-24	Grobina	W 1-0	34.0	1412	1219	66.62%	20.31%	13.07%	+1.16	+3.4	40
2025-08-24	@ Auda	L 0-1	34.0	1219	1412	13.07%	20.31%	66.62%	-1.16	-3.4	20
2025-08-25	Super Nova	L 0-3	44.4	1416	1224	66.49%	20.35%	13.15%	+1.15	-38.3	44
2025-08-25	@ Liepaja	W 3-0	44.4	1224	1416	13.15%	20.35%	66.49%	-1.15	+38.3	26
2025-08-29	Jelgava	W 3-2	51.2	1216	1256	39.63%	24.73%	35.64%	+0.07	+7.5	23
2025-08-29	@ Grobina	L 2-3	51.2	1256	1216	35.64%	24.73%	39.63%	-0.07	-7.5	29
2025-08-29	Liepaja	L 1-2	41.7	1181	1377	20.86%	23.17%	55.97%	-0.66	-5.0	21
2025-08-29	@ Metta	W 2-1	41.7	1377	1181	55.97%	23.17%	20.86%	+0.66	+5.0	47
2025-08-30	Daugavpils	L 0-1	41.8	1265	1336	35.32%	24.73%	39.95%	-0.08	-8.3	25
2025-08-30	@ Tukums 2000	W 1-0	41.8	1336	1265	39.95%	24.73%	35.32%	+0.08	+8.3	40
2025-08-30	Riga FC	L 2-6	37.8	1263	1692	7.39%	15.98%	76.64%	-1.76	-4.6	26
2025-08-30	@ Super Nova	W 6-2	37.8	1692	1263	76.64%	15.98%	7.39%	+1.76	+4.6	70
2025-08-31	FK RFS	L 0-1	47.1	1415	1652	17.39%	22.18%	60.42%	-0.86	-4.5	40
2025-08-31	@ Auda	W 1-0	47.1	1652	1415	60.42%	22.18%	17.39%	+0.86	+4.5	67
2025-09-13	Auda	W 6-0	39.2	1697	1411	74.18%	17.18%	8.63%	+1.60	+11.2	73
2025-09-13	@ Riga FC	L 0-6	39.2	1411	1697	8.63%	17.18%	74.18%	-1.60	-11.3	40
2025-09-13	Jelgava	L 1-4	57.2	1657	1249	82.05%	13.01%	4.94%	+2.17	-37.5	67
2025-09-13	@ FK RFS	W 4-1	57.2	1249	1657	4.94%	13.01%	82.05%	-2.17	+37.5	32
2025-09-14	Super Nova	W 2-1	47.9	1176	1258	33.83%	24.69%	41.48%	-0.13	+8.8	24
2025-09-14	@ Metta	L 1-2	47.9	1258	1176	41.48%	24.69%	33.83%	+0.13	-8.8	26
2025-09-14	Tukums 2000	W 4-1	35.2	1382	1257	60.13%	22.26%	17.61%	+0.84	+10.5	50
2025-09-14	@ Liepaja	L 1-4	35.2	1257	1382	17.61%	22.26%	60.13%	-0.84	-10.5	25
2025-09-15	Grobina	W 3-2	45.6	1344	1223	59.70%	22.36%	17.94%	+0.82	+4.2	43
2025-09-15	@ Daugavpils	L 2-3	45.6	1223	1344	17.94%	22.36%	59.70%	-0.82	-4.2	23
2025-09-20	Metta	W 3-2	47.1	1247	1185	53.01%	23.67%	23.32%	+0.54	+5.3	28
2025-09-20	@ Tukums 2000	L 2-3	47.1	1185	1247	23.32%	23.67%	53.01%	-0.54	-5.3	24
2025-09-21	Daugavpils	W 5-1	37.4	1619	1349	73.05%	17.71%	9.24%	+1.53	+6.9	70
2025-09-21	@ FK RFS	L 1-5	37.4	1349	1619	9.24%	17.71%	73.05%	-1.53	-6.9	43
2025-09-21	Liepaja	L 0-1	37.8	1219	1393	22.99%	23.61%	53.40%	-0.56	-5.8	23
2025-09-21	@ Grobina	W 1-0	37.8	1393	1219	53.40%	23.61%	22.99%	+0.56	+5.8	53
2025-09-21	Riga FC	L 2-3	49.7	1286	1708	7.66%	16.26%	76.08%	-1.72	-1.7	32
2025-09-21	@ Jelgava	W 3-2	49.7	1708	1286	76.08%	16.26%	7.66%	+1.72	+1.7	76
2025-09-22	Super Nova	W 3-2	45.3	1400	1249	62.66%	21.58%	15.76%	+0.96	+3.7	43
2025-09-22	@ Auda	L 2-3	45.3	1249	1400	15.76%	21.58%	62.66%	-0.96	-3.7	26
2025-09-25	Riga FC	D 0-0	67.1	1626	1710	33.59%	24.68%	41.73%	-0.14	+0.4	71
2025-09-25	@ FK RFS	D 0-0	67.1	1710	1626	41.73%	24.68%	33.59%	+0.14	-0.4	77
2025-09-26	Grobina	L 0-1	42.6	1180	1213	40.63%	24.71%	34.66%	+0.10	-9.2	24
2025-09-26	@ Metta	W 1-0	42.6	1213	1180	34.66%	24.71%	40.63%	-0.10	+9.2	26
2025-09-27	Auda	D 1-1	54.6	1285	1403	29.11%	24.41%	46.48%	-0.30	+0.8	33
2025-09-27	@ Jelgava	D 1-1	54.6	1403	1285	46.48%	24.41%	29.11%	+0.30	-0.8	44
2025-09-28	FK RFS	D 2-2	69.7	1399	1627	18.10%	22.41%	59.48%	-0.82	+1.5	54
2025-09-28	@ Liepaja	D 2-2	69.7	1627	1399	59.48%	22.41%	18.10%	+0.82	-1.5	72
2025-09-28	Super Nova	W 2-1	44.4	1252	1246	46.06%	24.45%	29.49%	+0.29	+6.8	31
2025-09-28	@ Tukums 2000	L 1-2	44.4	1246	1252	29.49%	24.45%	46.06%	-0.29	-6.8	26
2025-09-29	Riga FC	L 0-1	43.0	1342	1709	9.76%	18.13%	72.12%	-1.47	-2.5	43
2025-09-29	@ Daugavpils	W 1-0	43.0	1709	1342	72.12%	18.13%	9.76%	+1.47	+2.5	80
2025-10-03	Liepaja	W 3-0	38.2	1712	1400	76.02%	16.29%	7.69%	+1.72	+5.2	83
2025-10-03	@ Riga FC	L 0-3	38.2	1400	1712	7.69%	16.29%	76.02%	-1.72	-5.2	54
2025-10-04	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.3	1239	1286	38.72%	24.74%	36.53%	+0.04	-0.1	27
2025-10-04	@ Super Nova	D 1-1	53.3	1286	1239	36.53%	24.74%	38.72%	-0.04	+0.1	34
2025-10-04	Tukums 2000	W 1-0	41.1	1223	1259	40.27%	24.72%	35.01%	+0.09	+8.2	29
2025-10-04	@ Grobina	L 0-1	41.1	1259	1223	35.01%	24.72%	40.27%	-0.09	-8.2	31
2025-10-05	Auda	W 1-0	44.4	1339	1402	36.39%	24.74%	38.87%	-0.04	+8.9	46
2025-10-05	@ Daugavpils	L 0-1	44.4	1402	1339	38.87%	24.74%	36.39%	+0.04	-8.9	44
2025-10-05	Metta	W 5-1	28.7	1625	1171	84.51%	11.53%	3.97%	+2.39	+2.6	75
2025-10-05	@ FK RFS	L 1-5	28.7	1171	1625	3.97%	11.53%	84.51%	-2.39	-2.6	24
2025-10-18	Daugavpils	D 0-0	49.8	1286	1348	36.50%	24.74%	38.76%	-0.04	+0.1	35
2025-10-18	@ Jelgava	D 0-0	49.8	1348	1286	38.76%	24.74%	36.50%	+0.04	-0.1	47
2025-10-18	Super Nova	D 0-0	49.0	1231	1239	44.18%	24.57%	31.26%	+0.22	-0.7	30
2025-10-18	@ Grobina	D 0-0	49.0	1239	1231	31.26%	24.57%	44.18%	-0.22	+0.7	28
2025-10-19	FK RFS	L 2-4	42.6	1250	1628	9.34%	17.79%	72.87%	-1.52	-3.4	31
2025-10-19	@ Tukums 2000	W 4-2	42.6	1628	1250	72.87%	17.79%	9.34%	+1.52	+3.4	78
2025-10-19	Riga FC	L 0-1	33.6	1168	1717	4.25%	11.98%	83.77%	-2.32	-1.0	24
2025-10-19	@ Metta	W 1-0	33.6	1717	1168	83.77%	11.98%	4.25%	+2.32	+1.0	86
2025-10-20	Liepaja	L 1-2	52.0	1393	1395	45.03%	24.52%	30.46%	+0.25	-9.4	44
2025-10-20	@ Auda	W 2-1	52.0	1395	1393	30.46%	24.52%	45.03%	-0.25	+9.4	57
2025-10-24	Tukums 2000	D 0-0	61.4	1718	1247	85.31%	11.02%	3.66%	+2.47	-4.5	87
2025-10-24	@ Riga FC	D 0-0	61.4	1247	1718	3.66%	11.02%	85.31%	-2.47	+4.5	32
2025-10-25	Jelgava	D 2-2	60.5	1404	1286	59.44%	22.43%	18.14%	+0.81	-1.5	58
2025-10-25	@ Liepaja	D 2-2	60.5	1286	1404	18.14%	22.43%	59.44%	-0.81	+1.5	36
2025-10-25	Super Nova	D 2-2	59.5	1348	1239	58.38%	22.67%	18.95%	+0.77	-1.5	48
2025-10-25	@ Daugavpils	D 2-2	59.5	1239	1348	18.95%	22.67%	58.38%	-0.77	+1.5	29
2025-10-26	Auda	W 3-2	57.7	1167	1384	19.01%	22.69%	58.30%	-0.76	+11.2	27
2025-10-26	@ Metta	L 2-3	57.7	1384	1167	58.30%	22.69%	19.01%	+0.76	-11.2	44
2025-10-26	Grobina	W 5-0	27.6	1631	1230	81.66%	13.24%	5.11%	+2.14	+5.2	81
2025-10-26	@ FK RFS	L 0-5	27.6	1230	1631	5.11%	13.24%	81.66%	-2.14	-5.2	30
2025-11-02	FK RFS	L 1-3	38.1	1241	1636	8.61%	17.16%	74.23%	-1.60	-3.5	29
2025-11-02	@ Super Nova	W 3-1	38.1	1636	1241	74.23%	17.16%	8.61%	+1.60	+3.5	84
2025-11-02	Liepaja	L 1-2	49.1	1347	1403	37.36%	24.75%	37.89%	-0.01	-8.1	48
2025-11-02	@ Daugavpils	W 2-1	49.1	1403	1347	37.89%	24.75%	37.36%	+0.01	+8.2	61
2025-11-02	Metta	D 2-2	59.0	1287	1178	58.43%	22.66%	18.91%	+0.77	-1.5	37
2025-11-02	@ Jelgava	D 2-2	59.0	1178	1287	18.91%	22.66%	58.43%	-0.77	+1.5	28
2025-11-02	Riga FC	D 1-1	63.7	1225	1713	5.65%	13.96%	80.39%	-2.04	+3.8	31
2025-11-02	@ Grobina	D 1-1	63.7	1713	1225	80.39%	13.96%	5.65%	+2.04	-3.8	88
2025-11-02	Tukums 2000	L 0-1	48.5	1373	1251	59.73%	22.35%	17.91%	+0.83	-12.8	44
2025-11-02	@ Auda	W 1-0	48.5	1251	1373	17.91%	22.35%	59.73%	-0.83	+12.8	35
2025-11-07	FK RFS	L 3-4	77.6	1709	1640	54.00%	23.52%	22.49%	+0.58	-10.2	88
2025-11-07	@ Riga FC	W 4-3	77.6	1640	1709	22.49%	23.52%	54.00%	-0.58	+10.2	87
2025-11-09	Auda	D 2-2	59.1	1229	1360	27.57%	24.27%	48.17%	-0.36	+0.7	32
2025-11-09	@ Grobina	D 2-2	59.1	1360	1229	48.17%	24.27%	27.57%	+0.36	-0.7	45
2025-11-09	Daugavpils	W 3-1	47.8	1180	1338	24.53%	23.87%	51.60%	-0.49	+18.3	31
2025-11-09	@ Metta	L 1-3	47.8	1338	1180	51.60%	23.87%	24.53%	+0.49	-18.3	48
2025-11-09	Jelgava	D 1-1	53.4	1264	1286	42.27%	24.66%	33.07%	+0.15	-0.4	36
2025-11-09	@ Tukums 2000	D 1-1	53.4	1286	1264	33.07%	24.66%	42.27%	-0.15	+0.4	38
2025-11-09	Liepaja	W 3-0	41.5	1237	1411	22.97%	23.61%	53.42%	-0.56	+31.7	32
2025-11-09	@ Super Nova	L 0-3	41.5	1411	1237	53.42%	23.61%	22.97%	+0.56	-31.7	61

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-09-13	4.94%	Jelgava	1249	4	@ FK RFS	1657	1
2	2025-03-29	8.78%	Daugavpils	1332	2	@ Riga FC	1614	1
3	2025-04-04	9.40%	@ Metta	1253	1	FK RFS	1629	0
4	2025-08-03	9.44%	Metta	1172	1	@ Auda	1438	0
5	2025-08-25	13.15%	Super Nova	1224	3	@ Liepaja	1416	0
6	2025-07-20	14.06%	Daugavpils	1302	3	@ Auda	1478	1
7	2025-05-14	14.20%	@ Liepaja	1340	2	FK RFS	1623	1
8	2025-11-02	17.91%	Tukums 2000	1251	1	@ Auda	1373	0
9	2025-10-26	19.01%	@ Metta	1167	3	Auda	1384	2
10	2025-05-15	20.17%	@ Jelgava	1283	3	Auda	1486	1
11	2025-06-21	21.28%	Tukums 2000	1236	2	@ Daugavpils	1318	1
12	2025-07-06	22.16%	Metta	1167	1	@ Grobina	1240	0
13	2025-11-07	22.49%	FK RFS	1640	4	@ Riga FC	1709	3
14	2025-11-09	22.97%	@ Super Nova	1237	3	Liepaja	1411	0
15	2025-08-10	23.33%	@ Tukums 2000	1253	1	Auda	1423	0
16	2025-06-22	24.51%	Grobina	1242	1	@ Jelgava	1292	0
17	2025-11-09	24.53%	@ Metta	1180	3	Daugavpils	1338	1
18	2025-05-06	24.76%	Super Nova	1197	2	@ Metta	1244	0
19	2025-04-04	26.53%	@ Daugavpils	1346	2	Auda	1487	1
20	2025-05-04	26.57%	@ Grobina	1213	1	Daugavpils	1353	0
21	2025-05-10	26.97%	@ Grobina	1224	2	Liepaja	1360	0
22	2025-03-30	27.52%	Metta	1238	4	@ Grobina	1260	2
23	2025-06-01	29.02%	@ Super Nova	1222	4	Daugavpils	1341	1
24	2025-04-26	29.45%	Riga FC	1617	1	@ FK RFS	1624	0
25	2025-10-20	30.46%	Liepaja	1395	2	@ Auda	1393	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-08-25	38.32	Super Nova	3	1224	13.15%	@ Liepaja	0	1416	66.49%	20.35%
2	2025-09-13	37.55	Jelgava	4	1249	4.94%	@ FK RFS	1	1657	82.05%	13.01%
3	2025-03-12	34.37	@ Super Nova	4	1173	32.58%	Metta	0	1264	42.79%	24.64%
4	2025-11-09	31.68	@ Super Nova	3	1237	22.97%	Liepaja	0	1411	53.42%	23.61%
5	2025-07-02	24.52	Tukums 2000	3	1236	36.17%	@ Metta	0	1191	39.09%	24.74%
6	2025-06-01	23.78	@ Super Nova	4	1222	29.02%	Daugavpils	1	1341	46.58%	24.41%
7	2025-04-10	22.94	@ Jelgava	4	1252	30.87%	Daugavpils	1	1357	44.59%	24.54%
8	2025-07-20	22.45	Daugavpils	3	1302	14.06%	@ Auda	1	1478	65.11%	20.82%
9	2025-05-06	21.08	Super Nova	2	1197	24.76%	@ Metta	0	1244	51.34%	23.91%
10	2025-05-10	20.20	@ Grobina	2	1224	26.97%	Liepaja	0	1360	48.83%	24.20%
11	2025-03-07	20.14	@ Liepaja	4	1358	54.45%	Metta	0	1285	22.11%	23.44%
12	2025-05-15	19.94	@ Jelgava	3	1283	20.17%	Auda	1	1486	56.84%	23.00%
13	2025-11-09	18.33	@ Metta	3	1180	24.53%	Daugavpils	1	1338	51.60%	23.87%
14	2025-03-07	17.40	@ Daugavpils	3	1326	50.59%	Tukums 2000	0	1285	25.41%	24.00%
15	2025-07-27	17.06	@ Liepaja	2	1387	35.64%	Auda	0	1455	39.63%	24.73%
16	2025-03-30	15.48	Metta	4	1238	27.52%	@ Grobina	2	1260	48.22%	24.26%
17	2025-04-04	15.03	@ Metta	1	1253	9.40%	FK RFS	0	1629	72.75%	17.84%
18	2025-08-03	15.02	Metta	1	1172	9.44%	@ Auda	0	1438	72.69%	17.87%
19	2025-05-21	14.82	@ Grobina	2	1244	42.36%	Tukums 2000	0	1265	32.98%	24.66%
20	2025-03-29	14.33	Daugavpils	2	1332	8.78%	@ Riga FC	1	1614	73.90%	17.32%
21	2025-06-30	13.97	FK RFS	7	1623	67.46%	@ Daugavpils	1	1312	12.53%	20.01%
22	2025-04-09	13.59	@ Auda	3	1477	58.01%	Liepaja	0	1371	19.24%	22.75%
23	2025-04-05	13.09	@ Tukums 2000	2	1261	47.43%	Grobina	0	1245	28.24%	24.33%
24	2025-05-14	12.93	@ Liepaja	2	1340	14.20%	FK RFS	1	1623	64.92%	20.88%
25	2025-11-02	12.76	Tukums 2000	1	1251	17.91%	@ Auda	0	1373	59.73%	22.35%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-11-07	77.6	FK RFS	4	1640	22.49%	@ Riga FC	3	1709	54.00%	23.52%
2	2025-03-10	72.4	@ Riga FC	2	1619	61.81%	Auda	2	1477	16.38%	21.82%
3	2025-09-28	69.7	@ Liepaja	2	1399	18.10%	FK RFS	2	1627	59.48%	22.41%
4	2025-09-25	67.1	@ FK RFS	0	1626	33.59%	Riga FC	0	1710	41.73%	24.68%
5	2025-05-05	66.2	@ Jelgava	2	1283	11.26%	FK RFS	2	1618	69.52%	19.22%
6	2025-07-06	65.6	@ Riga FC	1	1689	81.09%	Daugavpils	1	1298	5.35%	13.56%
7	2025-11-02	63.7	@ Grobina	1	1225	5.65%	Riga FC	1	1713	80.39%	13.96%
8	2025-03-29	63.2	Daugavpils	2	1332	8.78%	@ Riga FC	1	1614	73.90%	17.32%
9	2025-05-14	62.1	@ Liepaja	2	1340	14.20%	FK RFS	1	1623	64.92%	20.88%
10	2025-10-24	61.4	@ Riga FC	0	1718	85.31%	Tukums 2000	0	1247	3.66%	11.02%
11	2025-04-08	61.3	@ Riga FC	1	1609	78.03%	Metta	1	1268	6.72%	15.25%
12	2025-04-26	61.1	Riga FC	1	1617	29.45%	@ FK RFS	0	1624	46.11%	24.44%
13	2025-10-25	60.5	@ Liepaja	2	1404	59.44%	Jelgava	2	1286	18.14%	22.43%
14	2025-03-15	60.1	@ Jelgava	1	1248	9.70%	Riga FC	1	1617	72.22%	18.08%
15	2025-04-25	59.7	@ Liepaja	2	1351	62.70%	Super Nova	2	1201	15.73%	21.56%
16	2025-10-25	59.5	@ Daugavpils	2	1348	58.38%	Super Nova	2	1239	18.95%	22.67%
17	2025-05-06	59.2	@ Tukums 2000	2	1252	30.31%	Liepaja	2	1361	45.18%	24.51%
18	2025-11-09	59.1	@ Grobina	2	1229	27.57%	Auda	2	1360	48.17%	24.27%
19	2025-11-02	59.0	@ Jelgava	2	1287	58.43%	Metta	2	1178	18.91%	22.66%
20	2025-03-31	58.7	@ Tukums 2000	2	1262	52.49%	Super Nova	2	1206	23.76%	23.75%
21	2025-06-17	58.7	@ Metta	2	1193	28.26%	Daugavpils	2	1318	47.40%	24.34%
22	2025-08-09	58.4	@ Metta	2	1188	35.48%	Jelgava	2	1257	39.79%	24.73%
23	2025-10-26	57.7	@ Metta	3	1167	19.01%	Auda	2	1384	58.30%	22.69%
24	2025-06-18	57.6	@ Riga FC	3	1665	50.26%	FK RFS	1	1626	25.70%	24.04%
25	2025-05-20	57.2	@ Auda	1	1466	61.03%	Daugavpils	1	1332	16.94%	22.03%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-07-19	26.9	FK RFS	4	1640	78.71%	@ Metta	0	1179	6.40%	14.89%
2	2025-04-19	27.5	@ Riga FC	3	1614	80.85%	Grobina	0	1227	5.45%	13.70%
3	2025-10-26	27.6	@ FK RFS	5	1631	81.66%	Grobina	0	1230	5.11%	13.24%
4	2025-03-06	27.7	@ Riga FC	2	1617	83.89%	Super Nova	0	1175	4.20%	11.91%
5	2025-10-05	28.7	@ FK RFS	5	1625	84.51%	Metta	1	1171	3.97%	11.53%
6	2025-05-31	28.9	@ Riga FC	3	1658	82.33%	Tukums 2000	0	1245	4.83%	12.84%
7	2025-05-20	29.0	@ FK RFS	2	1610	81.59%	Metta	0	1211	5.14%	13.28%
8	2025-05-24	29.0	Riga FC	3	1654	77.71%	@ Metta	0	1208	6.87%	15.42%
9	2025-04-24	29.5	@ Auda	2	1500	73.52%	Grobina	0	1223	8.98%	17.49%
10	2025-05-31	29.5	@ FK RFS	6	1617	79.18%	Grobina	0	1258	6.19%	14.63%
11	2025-08-10	30.6	@ Riga FC	2	1691	85.26%	Grobina	0	1221	3.68%	11.06%
12	2025-03-30	30.8	@ Auda	2	1481	69.81%	Jelgava	0	1252	11.09%	19.10%
13	2025-06-22	30.9	@ Riga FC	2	1676	83.93%	Super Nova	0	1233	4.19%	11.88%
14	2025-07-01	31.1	@ Riga FC	3	1686	82.06%	Jelgava	0	1278	4.94%	13.00%
15	2025-04-18	31.2	@ Auda	2	1495	69.96%	Tukums 2000	0	1263	11.00%	19.04%
16	2025-03-07	31.4	@ Liepaja	4	1358	54.45%	Metta	0	1285	22.11%	23.44%
17	2025-04-13	31.9	Riga FC	3	1606	69.46%	@ Tukums 2000	0	1271	11.30%	19.25%
18	2025-05-01	31.9	Riga FC	5	1627	76.33%	@ Super Nova	1	1202	7.54%	16.13%
19	2025-05-29	31.9	@ Auda	4	1463	72.18%	Metta	1	1204	9.72%	18.10%
20	2025-07-05	31.9	@ Auda	2	1472	67.00%	Jelgava	0	1275	12.82%	20.17%
21	2025-04-09	32.0	@ FK RFS	2	1614	77.89%	Tukums 2000	0	1274	6.78%	15.33%
22	2025-06-30	32.2	@ Liepaja	2	1384	61.28%	Grobina	0	1248	16.76%	21.96%
23	2025-03-16	32.6	@ Auda	1	1479	73.09%	Super Nova	0	1208	9.22%	17.69%
24	2025-08-10	32.8	@ FK RFS	4	1650	82.89%	Super Nova	1	1227	4.60%	12.51%
25	2025-03-07	32.9	@ Daugavpils	3	1326	50.59%	Tukums 2000	0	1285	25.41%	24.00%