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1998-99 A Lyga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Kareda Siauliai

55 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dainava Alytus

9.76 points above expected

22 points · 12.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lokomotyvas Kaunas

10.28 points below expected

9 points · 19.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kareda Siauliai 22 17 4 1 55 58 11 +47 54.39 +0.61
2 Zalgiris 22 16 6 0 54 62 8 +54 52.86 +1.14
3 FBK Kaunas 22 17 3 2 54 56 14 +42 47.78 +6.22
4 Ekranas 22 11 6 5 39 37 20 +17 37.52 +1.48
5 Inkaras Kaunas 22 10 4 8 34 29 26 +3 35.58 -1.58
6 Atlantas 22 7 4 11 25 33 33 0 33.51 -8.51
7 Banga Gargzdai 22 6 5 11 23 15 29 -14 22.25 +0.75
8 Nevezis 22 6 4 12 22 16 36 -20 20.98 +1.02
9 Dainava Alytus 22 7 1 14 22 23 53 -30 12.24 +9.76
10 Zalgiris B 22 6 3 13 21 24 58 -34 20.04 +0.96
11 Kauno Jegeriai 22 5 2 15 17 19 48 -29 18.84 -1.84
12 Lokomotyvas Kaunas 22 3 0 19 9 11 47 -36 19.28 -10.28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dainava Alytus 22 12.24 +9.76
2 FBK Kaunas 54 47.78 +6.22
3 Ekranas 39 37.52 +1.48
4 Zalgiris 54 52.86 +1.14
5 Nevezis 22 20.98 +1.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lokomotyvas Kaunas 9 19.28 -10.28
2 Atlantas 25 33.51 -8.51
3 Kauno Jegeriai 17 18.84 -1.84
4 Inkaras Kaunas 34 35.58 -1.58
5 Kareda Siauliai 55 54.39 +0.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banga Gargzdai 4 May 8 – May 26 1 in 269
2 Dainava Alytus 3 May 2 – May 13 1 in 115
3 Zalgiris B 3 Aug 29 – Sep 27 1 in 50
4 FBK Kaunas 11 Sep 12 – May 2 1 in 39
5 Kareda Siauliai 13 Aug 30 – May 13 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ekranas 2 Oct 17 – Nov 6 1 in 119
2 Lokomotyvas Kaunas 11 Apr 3 – Jun 3 1 in 108
3 Atlantas 3 Aug 23 – Sep 12 1 in 61
4 FBK Kaunas 2 May 13 – May 22 1 in 37
5 Nevezis 3 Jul 15 – Aug 29 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FBK Kaunas 17 Jul 14 – May 9 1 in 89
2 Nevezis 3 Apr 3 – Apr 17 1 in 65
3 Banga Gargzdai 5 May 1 – May 26 1 in 41
4 Ekranas 6 May 8 – Jun 13 1 in 41
5 Dainava Alytus 3 May 2 – May 13 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 8 Apr 10 – May 26 1 in 68
2 Inkaras Kaunas 4 Sep 1 – Sep 27 1 in 17
3 Nevezis 9 Oct 24 – May 13 1 in 15
4 Banga Gargzdai 7 Oct 25 – May 1 1 in 12
5 Zalgiris 2 May 9 – May 13 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Kareda Siauliai 1819 55 -5 10 11.3 -1.3
Zalgiris 1815 54 +15 11 11.4 -0.4
FBK Kaunas 1640 54 -67 9 11.2 -2.2
Ekranas 1541 39 +58 11 8.2 +2.8
Inkaras Kaunas 1407 34 +74 10 6.6 +3.4
Atlantas 1320 25 -30 7 10.3 -3.3
Banga Gargzdai 1212 23 +63 9 4.9 +4.1
Nevezis 1093 22 -1 7 6.1 +0.9
Dainava Alytus 1113 22 +13 3 2.2 +0.8
Zalgiris B 1144 21 +34 5 5.0 -0.0
Kauno Jegeriai 1084 17 -5 3 4.0 -1.0
Lokomotyvas Kaunas 865 9 -149 0 3.9 -3.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL BG DA EKR FK IK KS KJ LK NEV ZAL ZB
Atlantas —
0-1-1
3.91
0-0-2
4.83
0-2-0
1.98
0-0-2
1.06
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
0.59
2-0-0
4.57
2-0-0
4.84
1-0-1
4.22
0-0-2
0.60
1-1-0
4.45
Banga Gargzdai
1-1-0
1.75
—
1-1-0
3.92
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
0.65
0-1-1
1.53
0-0-2
0.41
0-1-1
3.49
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-2
0.41
0-1-1
2.83
Dainava Alytus
2-0-0
0.86
0-1-1
1.75
—
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
0.46
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
0.29
1-0-1
2.22
2-0-0
1.62
1-0-1
1.76
0-0-2
0.34
1-0-1
1.66
Ekranas
0-2-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.57
2-0-0
5.16
—
0-0-2
1.82
2-0-0
2.54
0-2-0
0.94
2-0-0
4.74
2-0-0
4.78
0-1-1
4.72
0-1-1
1.15
1-0-1
4.14
FBK Kaunas
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
5.04
2-0-0
5.26
2-0-0
3.85
—
2-0-0
4.27
0-1-1
1.58
2-0-0
5.24
2-0-0
5.23
2-0-0
5.20
0-2-0
1.75
2-0-0
5.09
Inkaras Kaunas
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
4.14
2-0-0
4.76
0-0-2
3.12
0-0-2
1.40
—
0-0-2
0.84
1-1-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-0
4.29
0-1-1
0.67
2-0-0
4.75
Kareda Siauliai
2-0-0
5.11
2-0-0
5.31
2-0-0
5.46
0-2-0
4.74
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.85
—
2-0-0
5.33
2-0-0
5.36
2-0-0
5.33
0-1-1
3.39
2-0-0
5.34
Kauno Jegeriai
0-0-2
1.10
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
0.47
0-1-1
1.02
0-0-2
0.39
—
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
0.42
1-0-1
2.92
Lokomotyvas Kaunas
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
2.73
0-0-2
4.05
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
0.48
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
0.37
1-0-1
2.28
—
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
0.37
1-0-1
2.95
Nevezis
1-0-1
1.45
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.90
1-1-0
0.96
0-0-2
0.50
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-2
0.39
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
3.07
—
0-1-1
0.39
0-1-1
3.21
Zalgiris
2-0-0
5.09
2-0-0
5.30
2-0-0
5.39
1-1-0
4.53
0-2-0
3.92
1-1-0
5.01
1-1-0
2.27
2-0-0
5.29
2-0-0
5.35
1-1-0
5.33
—
2-0-0
5.33
Zalgiris B
0-1-1
1.22
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
4.00
1-0-1
1.53
0-0-2
0.61
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
0.38
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
0.39
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +8.5
Allowed 0.78 -8.3
Differential 0.95 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%7.58%7.58%5.30%1.89%3.41%33.33%
17.58%6.06%8.71%3.79%—1.89%28.03%
27.58%8.71%2.27%0.76%1.14%—20.45%
35.30%3.79%0.76%———9.85%
41.89%—1.14%———3.03%
5+3.41%1.89%————5.30%
Total33.33%28.03%20.45%9.85%3.03%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.69 1.69 2.74
CV 1.16 1.16 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
1—4.55%18.18%4.55%——27.27%
29.09%—4.55%———13.64%
3—13.64%————13.64%
4———————
5+—9.09%————9.09%
Total18.18%40.91%27.27%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.82 1.34 2.51
CV 1.21 0.89 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%—50.00%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%27.27%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 1.32 -0.64
SD 0.78 1.43 1.71
CV 1.14 1.08 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%—13.64%40.91%
14.55%—9.09%9.09%——22.73%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%4.55%—27.27%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%22.73%22.73%18.18%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.41 -1.36
SD 1.05 2.61 3.11
CV 1.00 1.08 —
Max 3 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—9.09%——22.73%
19.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
29.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%27.27%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 0.91 +0.77
SD 1.43 1.02 2.07
CV 0.85 1.12 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
113.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
213.64%18.18%————31.82%
313.64%—————13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total50.00%36.36%13.64%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 0.64 +1.91
SD 2.48 0.73 2.76
CV 0.98 1.14 —
Max 12 2 +12
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—13.64%4.55%——31.82%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%——22.73%
29.09%18.18%——4.55%—31.82%
39.09%—————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total40.91%22.73%18.18%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.18 +0.14
SD 1.17 1.26 1.96
CV 0.89 1.07 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%9.09%————13.64%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
313.64%9.09%————22.73%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total54.55%40.91%4.55%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 0.50 +2.14
SD 1.76 0.60 2.01
CV 0.67 1.20 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%50.00%
14.55%—13.64%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
2—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%27.27%22.73%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.18 -1.32
SD 1.13 1.74 2.17
CV 1.30 0.80 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.27%22.73%4.55%—4.55%59.09%
14.55%—9.09%9.09%—9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%31.82%31.82%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.14 -1.64
SD 0.67 1.70 1.87
CV 1.35 0.80 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%13.64%—4.55%45.45%
118.18%4.55%18.18%———40.91%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%13.64%40.91%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.64 -0.91
SD 0.83 1.43 1.80
CV 1.14 0.88 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
113.64%18.18%————31.82%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
313.64%9.09%————22.73%
4———————
5+18.18%4.55%————22.73%
Total63.64%36.36%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 0.36 +2.45
SD 2.58 0.49 2.72
CV 0.91 1.35 —
Max 10 1 +10
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%40.91%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%9.09%27.27%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.64 -1.55
SD 1.19 2.56 3.26
CV 1.09 0.97 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kareda Siauliai 1819 55 54.39 +0.61 56.0% 42 46 51 55 57 61 62
Zalgiris 1815 54 52.86 +1.14 68.0% 41 47 51 53 55 59 62
FBK Kaunas 1640 54 47.78 +6.22 93.0% 32 38 44 48 51 55 62
Ekranas 1541 39 37.52 +1.48 65.0% 27 29 34 37 41 46 51
Inkaras Kaunas 1407 34 35.58 -1.58 43.0% 23 27 32 36 39 43 46
Atlantas 1320 25 33.51 -8.51 5.0% 18 25 30 33 38 41 44
Banga Gargzdai 1212 23 22.25 +0.75 61.0% 12 15 19 22 26 29 34
Zalgiris B 1144 21 20.04 +0.96 61.0% 8 11 17 20 23 28 43
Dainava Alytus 1113 22 12.24 +9.76 100.0% 0 5 9 12 15 20 22
Nevezis 1093 22 20.98 +1.02 58.0% 9 13 17 21 25 29 32
Kauno Jegeriai 1084 17 18.84 -1.84 42.0% 4 10 15 18 23 27 32
Lokomotyvas Kaunas 865 9 19.28 -10.28 2.0% 5 13 16 20 22 26 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.82%
Slight Edge
45.45%15.91%38.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.73 Elo pts.
212 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
51%
Kareda Siauliai, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.94 * Some Luck: 3.94 to 5.91 * Lucky: 5.91 to 7.87 * Wild Swing: 7.87 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.81 * Close: 0.81 to 1.22 * Off: 1.22 to 1.62 * Way Off: 1.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.20 points
Some Luck
04.9212
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.012.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Dainava Alytus
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.00%
Lokomotyvas Kaunas
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 308.87
2.43
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
93%
Wide Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Few
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.64
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Upset-Prone
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.03
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.79
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.102
Well Within Noise
00.1160.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Kareda Siauliai51.00%38.00%11.00%—————————
Zalgiris40.00%41.00%18.00%1.00%————————
FBK Kaunas9.00%20.00%60.00%9.00%2.00%———————
Ekranas—1.00%4.00%45.00%24.00%22.00%4.00%—————
Inkaras Kaunas——5.00%29.00%35.00%27.00%4.00%—————
Atlantas——2.00%15.00%38.00%32.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%———
Banga Gargzdai————1.00%8.00%26.00%19.00%18.00%22.00%3.00%3.00%
Nevezis—————3.00%24.00%20.00%15.00%19.00%14.00%5.00%
Dainava Alytus———————3.00%6.00%5.00%25.00%61.00%
Zalgiris B———1.00%—4.00%10.00%21.00%22.00%17.00%17.00%8.00%
Kauno Jegeriai—————3.00%11.00%19.00%15.00%20.00%18.00%14.00%
Lokomotyvas Kaunas—————1.00%13.00%15.00%22.00%17.00%23.00%9.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Atlantas 100% —
Banga Gargzdai 97.00% 3.00%
Dainava Alytus 39.00% 61.00%
Ekranas 100% —
FBK Kaunas 100% —
Inkaras Kaunas 100% —
Kareda Siauliai 100% —
Kauno Jegeriai 86.00% 14.00%
Lokomotyvas Kaunas 91.00% 9.00%
Nevezis 95.00% 5.00%
Zalgiris 100% —
Zalgiris B 92.00% 8.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1998-07-10 Nevezis L 0-152.0 1422 1113 74.69% 16.06% 9.25%+1.57 -52.0 0
1998-07-10 @ Atlantas W 1-052.0 1113 1422 9.25% 16.06% 74.69%-1.57 +52.0 3
1998-07-10 Banga Gargzdai W 4-030.5 1448 1203 70.82% 16.34% 12.84%+1.26 +37.5 3
1998-07-10 @ Ekranas L 0-430.5 1203 1448 12.84% 16.34% 70.82%-1.26 -37.5 0
1998-07-10 Kauno Jegeriai W 4-034.9 1768 1216 82.89% 14.58% 2.53%+2.71 +7.5 3
1998-07-10 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-434.9 1216 1768 2.53% 14.58% 82.89%-2.71 -7.5 0
1998-07-14 Ekranas L 0-524.9 842 1485 1.99% 14.25% 83.76%-2.92 -7.2 0
1998-07-14 @ Dainava Alytus W 5-024.9 1485 842 83.76% 14.25% 1.99%+2.92 +7.2 6
1998-07-14 FBK Kaunas L 0-328.6 1075 1523 5.71% 15.57% 78.72%-2.00 -13.1 0
1998-07-14 @ Zalgiris B W 3-028.6 1523 1075 78.72% 15.57% 5.71%+2.00 +13.1 3
1998-07-15 Zalgiris D 0-070.3 1775 1714 53.03% 16.82% 30.15%+0.40 -4.1 4
1998-07-15 @ Kareda Siauliai D 0-070.3 1714 1775 30.15% 16.82% 53.03%-0.40 +4.1 1
1998-07-15 Lokomotyvas Kaunas L 1-245.5 1165 1216 37.70% 16.87% 45.43%-0.13 -26.0 3
1998-07-15 @ Nevezis W 2-145.5 1216 1165 45.43% 16.87% 37.70%+0.13 +25.9 3
1998-08-01 Zalgiris B W 2-030.5 1370 1062 74.63% 16.06% 9.30%+1.56 +14.5 3
1998-08-01 @ Atlantas L 0-230.5 1062 1370 9.30% 16.06% 74.63%-1.56 -14.5 0
1998-08-01 Banga Gargzdai W 1-032.9 1536 1165 77.58% 15.74% 6.68%+1.86 +5.6 6
1998-08-01 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-132.9 1165 1536 6.68% 15.74% 77.58%-1.86 -5.6 0
1998-08-02 Kareda Siauliai D 2-277.5 1492 1771 13.75% 16.39% 69.86%-1.20 +7.2 7
1998-08-02 @ Ekranas D 2-277.5 1771 1492 69.86% 16.39% 13.75%+1.20 -7.2 5
1998-08-02 Dainava Alytus W 2-133.6 1514 835 85.15% 13.59% 1.26%+3.31 +1.0 3
1998-08-02 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-233.6 835 1514 1.26% 13.59% 85.15%-3.31 -1.0 0
1998-08-02 Kauno Jegeriai W 3-034.0 1718 1208 81.96% 14.87% 3.17%+2.51 +7.2 4
1998-08-02 @ Zalgiris L 0-334.0 1208 1718 3.17% 14.87% 81.96%-2.51 -7.2 0
1998-08-08 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-155.4 1764 1515 71.07% 16.32% 12.61%+1.28 +9.7 8
1998-08-08 @ Kareda Siauliai L 1-255.4 1515 1764 12.61% 16.32% 71.07%-1.28 -9.7 3
1998-08-08 Nevezis W 2-143.1 1201 1139 53.21% 16.82% 29.97%+0.40 +21.3 3
1998-08-08 @ Kauno Jegeriai L 1-243.1 1139 1201 29.97% 16.82% 53.21%-0.40 -21.3 3
1998-08-08 Ekranas W 3-047.3 1726 1500 69.50% 16.41% 14.09%+1.18 +31.4 7
1998-08-08 @ Zalgiris L 0-347.3 1500 1726 14.09% 16.41% 69.50%-1.18 -31.4 7
1998-08-09 Atlantas D 0-051.5 1160 1384 17.90% 16.57% 65.53%-0.95 +9.0 1
1998-08-09 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-051.5 1384 1160 65.53% 16.57% 17.90%+0.95 -9.0 4
1998-08-09 Dainava Alytus W 12-024.5 1542 834 85.56% 13.36% 1.08%+3.45 +8.9 9
1998-08-09 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-1224.5 834 1542 1.08% 13.36% 85.56%-3.45 -8.9 0
1998-08-09 Lokomotyvas Kaunas L 0-233.9 1048 1242 20.64% 16.65% 62.71%-0.80 -30.7 0
1998-08-09 @ Zalgiris B W 2-033.9 1242 1048 62.71% 16.65% 20.64%+0.80 +30.7 6
1998-08-18 Banga Gargzdai L 0-147.0 1273 1169 58.17% 16.75% 25.08%+0.60 -40.3 6
1998-08-18 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-047.0 1169 1273 25.08% 16.75% 58.17%-0.60 +40.3 4
1998-08-22 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-053.0 1209 1506 12.56% 16.32% 71.12%-1.29 +11.3 5
1998-08-22 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-053.0 1506 1209 71.12% 16.32% 12.56%+1.29 -11.3 4
1998-08-22 Kauno Jegeriai W 1-034.8 1468 1223 70.88% 16.33% 12.78%+1.27 +10.5 10
1998-08-22 @ Ekranas L 0-134.8 1223 1468 12.78% 16.33% 70.88%-1.27 -10.5 3
1998-08-23 Dainava Alytus L 1-356.9 1375 825 82.87% 14.59% 2.54%+2.70 -94.1 4
1998-08-23 @ Atlantas W 3-156.9 825 1375 2.54% 14.59% 82.87%-2.70 +94.0 3
1998-08-23 Kareda Siauliai D 1-173.3 1551 1773 18.05% 16.58% 65.38%-0.94 +8.0 10
1998-08-23 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-173.3 1773 1551 65.38% 16.58% 18.05%+0.94 -8.0 9
1998-08-27 Zalgiris B W 3-027.4 1494 1017 81.13% 15.09% 3.78%+2.36 +8.6 7
1998-08-27 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-327.4 1017 1494 3.78% 15.09% 81.13%-2.36 -8.6 0
1998-08-29 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-049.2 919 1232 11.55% 16.25% 72.20%-1.36 +94.7 6
1998-08-29 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-249.2 1232 919 72.20% 16.25% 11.55%+1.36 -94.7 6
1998-08-29 Nevezis W 2-150.0 1008 1118 29.98% 16.82% 53.20%-0.40 +35.0 3
1998-08-29 @ Zalgiris B L 1-250.0 1118 1008 53.20% 16.82% 29.98%+0.40 -35.0 3
1998-08-30 Atlantas W 6-037.1 1766 1281 81.31% 15.05% 3.64%+2.39 +15.9 12
1998-08-30 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-637.1 1281 1766 3.64% 15.05% 81.31%-2.39 -15.9 4
1998-08-30 FBK Kaunas D 1-173.2 1757 1559 67.35% 16.50% 16.15%+1.05 -8.7 8
1998-08-30 @ Zalgiris D 1-173.2 1559 1757 16.15% 16.50% 67.35%-1.05 +8.7 11
1998-09-01 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-049.5 1479 1503 41.47% 16.88% 41.66%+0.00 +56.4 13
1998-09-01 @ Ekranas L 0-249.5 1503 1479 41.66% 16.88% 41.47%+0.00 -56.4 7
1998-09-12 Zalgiris L 1-245.5 1265 1748 4.73% 15.36% 79.91%-2.16 -3.7 4
1998-09-12 @ Atlantas W 2-145.5 1748 1265 79.91% 15.36% 4.73%+2.16 +3.7 11
1998-09-12 FBK Kaunas L 1-259.8 1535 1567 40.34% 16.88% 42.78%-0.04 -27.5 13
1998-09-12 @ Ekranas W 2-159.8 1567 1535 42.78% 16.88% 40.34%+0.04 +27.5 14
1998-09-12 Kauno Jegeriai D 0-052.4 1447 1212 70.11% 16.38% 13.52%+1.22 -10.9 8
1998-09-12 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 0-052.4 1212 1447 13.52% 16.38% 70.11%-1.22 +10.9 4
1998-09-12 Kareda Siauliai L 0-136.1 1138 1781 1.98% 14.25% 83.78%-2.92 -1.6 6
1998-09-12 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-036.1 1781 1138 83.78% 14.25% 1.98%+2.92 +1.6 15
1998-09-12 Banga Gargzdai W 1-046.3 1083 1220 26.63% 16.78% 56.60%-0.54 +39.3 6
1998-09-12 @ Nevezis L 0-146.3 1220 1083 56.60% 16.78% 26.63%+0.54 -39.3 5
1998-09-16 Zalgiris L 1-334.9 1014 1752 1.18% 13.50% 85.32%-3.37 -1.6 6
1998-09-16 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-134.9 1752 1014 85.32% 13.50% 1.18%+3.37 +1.6 14
1998-09-19 Nevezis L 2-347.6 1012 1122 29.93% 16.82% 53.25%-0.41 -20.2 6
1998-09-19 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-247.6 1122 1012 53.25% 16.82% 29.93%+0.41 +20.2 9
1998-09-19 Atlantas D 0-053.9 1508 1262 70.90% 16.33% 12.76%+1.27 -11.2 14
1998-09-19 @ Ekranas D 0-053.9 1262 1508 12.76% 16.33% 70.90%-1.27 +11.2 5
1998-09-19 FBK Kaunas L 0-246.0 1436 1595 24.24% 16.74% 59.02%-0.64 -35.4 8
1998-09-19 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-046.0 1595 1436 59.02% 16.74% 24.24%+0.64 +35.4 17
1998-09-19 Zalgiris B L 0-247.4 1223 1043 65.77% 16.56% 17.67%+0.96 -86.0 4
1998-09-19 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 2-047.4 1043 1223 17.67% 16.56% 65.77%-0.96 +85.9 6
1998-09-19 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 5-135.1 1754 1136 84.16% 14.08% 1.76%+3.02 +4.3 17
1998-09-19 @ Zalgiris L 1-535.1 1136 1754 1.76% 14.08% 84.16%-3.02 -4.3 6
1998-09-26 FBK Kaunas L 0-528.8 1137 1630 4.48% 15.30% 80.22%-2.21 -16.5 4
1998-09-26 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 5-028.8 1630 1137 80.22% 15.30% 4.48%+2.21 +16.5 20
1998-09-26 Ekranas L 0-132.8 1132 1496 8.85% 16.02% 75.13%-1.61 -7.3 6
1998-09-26 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-032.8 1496 1132 75.13% 16.02% 8.85%+1.61 +7.3 17
1998-09-26 Kareda Siauliai L 0-333.4 1142 1783 2.01% 14.27% 83.72%-2.91 -4.5 9
1998-09-26 @ Nevezis W 3-033.4 1783 1142 83.72% 14.27% 2.01%+2.91 +4.6 18
1998-09-27 Inkaras Kaunas W 3-150.8 1273 1400 27.81% 16.79% 55.40%-0.49 +62.9 8
1998-09-27 @ Atlantas L 1-350.8 1400 1273 55.40% 16.79% 27.81%+0.49 -62.9 8
1998-09-27 Banga Gargzdai W 1-043.1 1129 1181 37.57% 16.87% 45.56%-0.13 +32.3 9
1998-09-27 @ Zalgiris B L 0-143.1 1181 1129 45.56% 16.87% 37.57%+0.13 -32.3 5
1998-10-03 Zalgiris B W 2-152.1 992 1161 23.13% 16.71% 60.15%-0.69 +39.3 9
1998-10-03 @ Dainava Alytus L 1-252.1 1161 992 60.15% 16.71% 23.13%+0.69 -39.3 9
1998-10-03 Atlantas W 1-041.1 1647 1336 74.80% 16.05% 9.15%+1.58 +7.6 23
1998-10-03 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-141.1 1336 1647 9.15% 16.05% 74.80%-1.58 -7.6 8
1998-10-03 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-135.2 1124 1337 18.90% 16.60% 64.50%-0.89 -15.0 6
1998-10-03 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-035.2 1337 1124 64.50% 16.60% 18.90%+0.89 +15.0 11
1998-10-04 Banga Gargzdai D 0-050.9 1120 1149 40.90% 16.88% 42.22%-0.02 +0.2 5
1998-10-04 @ Kauno Jegeriai D 0-050.9 1149 1120 42.22% 16.88% 40.90%+0.02 -0.2 6
1998-10-04 Nevezis W 6-030.8 1758 1138 84.20% 14.06% 1.74%+3.03 +7.5 20
1998-10-04 @ Zalgiris L 0-630.8 1138 1758 1.74% 14.06% 84.20%-3.03 -7.5 9
1998-10-17 Kauno Jegeriai W 7-131.7 1328 1121 68.07% 16.47% 15.46%+1.09 +53.9 11
1998-10-17 @ Atlantas L 1-731.7 1121 1328 15.46% 16.47% 68.07%-1.09 -53.9 5
1998-10-17 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-030.7 1654 1109 82.76% 14.62% 2.62%+2.68 +4.1 26
1998-10-17 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-230.7 1109 1654 2.62% 14.62% 82.76%-2.68 -4.1 6
1998-10-17 Ekranas W 1-052.9 1130 1504 8.46% 15.97% 75.57%-1.65 +52.7 12
1998-10-17 @ Nevezis L 0-152.9 1504 1130 75.57% 15.97% 8.46%+1.65 -52.7 17
1998-10-17 Kareda Siauliai L 0-431.9 1122 1788 1.76% 14.08% 84.16%-3.02 -5.2 9
1998-10-17 @ Zalgiris B W 4-031.9 1788 1122 84.16% 14.08% 1.76%+3.02 +5.2 21
1998-10-20 Dainava Alytus W 2-034.7 1149 1031 59.65% 16.72% 23.62%+0.66 +34.6 9
1998-10-20 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-234.7 1031 1149 23.62% 16.72% 59.65%-0.66 -34.6 9
1998-10-24 Kauno Jegeriai L 0-139.8 997 1067 35.08% 16.86% 48.06%-0.22 -25.9 9
1998-10-24 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-039.8 1067 997 48.06% 16.86% 35.08%+0.22 +25.9 8
1998-10-24 Nevezis W 3-032.4 1352 1183 64.85% 16.59% 18.56%+0.91 +40.4 14
1998-10-24 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-332.4 1183 1352 18.56% 16.59% 64.85%-0.91 -40.5 12
1998-10-25 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 3-136.1 1382 1105 72.89% 16.20% 10.90%+1.42 +14.7 14
1998-10-25 @ Atlantas L 1-336.1 1105 1382 10.90% 16.20% 72.89%-1.42 -14.7 6
1998-10-25 Banga Gargzdai W 5-138.1 1793 1183 84.01% 14.14% 1.84%+2.98 +4.5 24
1998-10-25 @ Kareda Siauliai L 1-538.1 1183 1793 1.84% 14.14% 84.01%-2.98 -4.5 9
1998-10-25 Zalgiris B W 8-030.3 1765 1117 84.67% 13.84% 1.49%+3.17 +8.4 23
1998-10-25 @ Zalgiris L 0-830.3 1117 1765 1.49% 13.84% 84.67%-3.17 -8.4 9
1998-11-03 Zalgiris L 0-245.4 1393 1774 8.14% 15.94% 75.93%-1.68 -12.8 14
1998-11-03 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-045.4 1774 1393 75.93% 15.94% 8.14%+1.68 +12.8 26
1998-11-06 Kauno Jegeriai W 1-040.9 1090 1093 44.62% 16.87% 38.51%+0.10 +28.0 9
1998-11-06 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas L 0-140.9 1093 1090 38.51% 16.87% 44.62%-0.10 -28.0 8
1998-11-06 Ekranas W 3-049.0 1109 1451 9.93% 16.12% 73.94%-1.50 +141.0 12
1998-11-06 @ Zalgiris B L 0-349.0 1451 1109 73.94% 16.12% 9.93%+1.50 -141.0 17
1998-11-07 Zalgiris L 1-341.4 1179 1787 2.41% 14.51% 83.08%-2.75 -3.3 9
1998-11-07 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-141.4 1787 1179 83.08% 14.51% 2.41%+2.75 +3.3 29
1998-11-07 Kareda Siauliai L 0-229.6 971 1797 0.73% 12.77% 86.50%-3.78 -1.1 9
1998-11-07 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-029.6 1797 971 86.50% 12.77% 0.73%+3.78 +1.1 27
1998-11-07 FBK Kaunas L 0-232.0 1142 1658 3.96% 15.15% 80.88%-2.32 -6.2 12
1998-11-07 @ Nevezis W 2-032.0 1658 1142 80.88% 15.15% 3.96%+2.32 +6.2 29
1999-04-03 Zalgiris B W 4-035.2 1310 1250 53.01% 16.82% 30.17%+0.40 +81.4 20
1999-04-03 @ Ekranas L 0-435.2 1250 1310 30.17% 16.82% 53.01%-0.40 -81.4 12
1999-04-03 Dainava Alytus W 3-028.1 1798 970 87.10% 12.34% 0.55%+4.02 +1.2 30
1999-04-03 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-328.1 970 1798 0.55% 12.34% 87.10%-4.02 -1.2 9
1999-04-03 Atlantas L 1-335.9 1065 1397 10.48% 16.17% 73.35%-1.45 -14.1 8
1999-04-03 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 3-135.9 1397 1065 73.35% 16.17% 10.48%+1.45 +14.1 17
1999-04-03 FBK Kaunas L 1-237.7 1118 1665 3.37% 14.95% 81.68%-2.46 -2.7 9
1999-04-03 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-137.7 1665 1118 81.68% 14.95% 3.37%+2.46 +2.6 32
1999-04-03 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-051.4 1136 1380 16.31% 16.51% 67.18%-1.04 +9.7 13
1999-04-03 @ Nevezis D 0-051.4 1380 1136 67.18% 16.51% 16.31%+1.04 -9.7 15
1999-04-03 Banga Gargzdai W 3-034.7 1790 1175 84.10% 14.11% 1.79%+3.01 +4.0 32
1999-04-03 @ Zalgiris L 0-334.7 1175 1790 1.79% 14.11% 84.10%-3.01 -4.0 9
1999-04-10 FBK Kaunas L 1-251.4 1411 1667 15.34% 16.47% 68.19%-1.10 -11.7 17
1999-04-10 @ Atlantas W 2-151.4 1667 1411 68.19% 16.47% 15.34%+1.10 +11.7 35
1999-04-10 Nevezis D 2-260.5 1391 1146 70.88% 16.33% 12.79%+1.27 -7.5 21
1999-04-10 @ Ekranas D 2-260.5 1146 1391 12.79% 16.33% 70.88%-1.27 +7.5 14
1999-04-10 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-031.6 1370 1116 71.49% 16.30% 12.21%+1.31 +18.9 18
1999-04-10 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-231.6 1116 1370 12.21% 16.30% 71.49%-1.31 -18.9 9
1999-04-10 Dainava Alytus L 2-355.3 1051 968 55.65% 16.79% 27.56%+0.50 -34.6 8
1999-04-10 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 3-255.3 968 1051 27.56% 16.79% 55.65%-0.50 +34.6 12
1999-04-10 Zalgiris L 0-1033.5 1168 1794 2.18% 14.38% 83.43%-2.84 -15.4 12
1999-04-10 @ Zalgiris B W 10-033.5 1794 1168 83.43% 14.38% 2.18%+2.84 +15.4 35
1999-04-11 Kareda Siauliai L 1-242.8 1171 1800 2.16% 14.36% 83.48%-2.85 -1.7 9
1999-04-11 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-142.8 1800 1171 83.48% 14.36% 2.16%+2.85 +1.7 33
1999-04-17 Banga Gargzdai D 0-050.9 1003 1170 23.43% 16.72% 59.85%-0.67 +6.7 13
1999-04-17 @ Dainava Alytus D 0-050.9 1170 1003 59.85% 16.72% 23.43%+0.67 -6.7 10
1999-04-17 Kauno Jegeriai W 3-027.6 1679 1016 84.90% 13.73% 1.38%+3.23 +3.1 38
1999-04-17 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-327.6 1016 1679 1.38% 13.73% 84.90%-3.23 -3.1 8
1999-04-17 Atlantas W 2-149.3 1389 1399 43.55% 16.87% 39.58%+0.07 +27.0 21
1999-04-17 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-249.3 1399 1389 39.58% 16.87% 43.55%-0.07 -27.0 17
1999-04-17 Zalgiris B W 3-140.5 1801 1153 84.67% 13.84% 1.49%+3.17 +2.0 36
1999-04-17 @ Kareda Siauliai L 1-340.5 1153 1801 1.49% 13.84% 84.67%-3.17 -2.0 12
1999-04-17 Zalgiris D 1-164.2 1153 1809 1.85% 14.15% 83.99%-2.98 +14.6 15
1999-04-17 @ Nevezis D 1-164.2 1809 1153 83.99% 14.15% 1.85%+2.98 -14.6 36
1999-04-18 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-137.3 1384 1097 73.49% 16.16% 10.35%+1.46 +8.1 24
1999-04-18 @ Ekranas L 1-237.3 1097 1384 10.35% 16.16% 73.49%-1.46 -8.1 9
1999-04-24 Ekranas D 1-157.7 1372 1392 42.12% 16.88% 41.01%+0.02 -0.2 18
1999-04-24 @ Atlantas D 1-157.7 1392 1372 41.01% 16.88% 42.12%-0.02 +0.2 25
1999-04-24 Kauno Jegeriai L 1-252.9 1163 1013 63.01% 16.65% 20.34%+0.82 -41.2 10
1999-04-24 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-152.9 1013 1163 20.34% 16.65% 63.01%-0.82 +41.1 11
1999-04-24 Nevezis W 2-036.2 1803 1168 84.45% 13.95% 1.60%+3.10 +2.5 39
1999-04-24 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-236.2 1168 1803 1.60% 13.95% 84.45%-3.10 -2.5 15
1999-04-24 Zalgiris L 0-134.7 1089 1795 1.41% 13.76% 84.83%-3.21 -1.2 9
1999-04-24 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-034.7 1795 1089 84.83% 13.76% 1.41%+3.21 +1.2 39
1999-04-24 Dainava Alytus W 4-242.8 1151 1010 62.11% 16.67% 21.22%+0.78 +24.3 15
1999-04-24 @ Zalgiris B L 2-442.8 1010 1151 21.22% 16.67% 62.11%-0.78 -24.4 13
1999-04-25 Inkaras Kaunas W 4-253.3 1682 1416 72.20% 16.25% 11.55%+1.36 +13.9 41
1999-04-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 2-453.3 1416 1682 11.55% 16.25% 72.20%-1.36 -13.9 21
1999-05-01 Zalgiris B D 1-154.9 1122 1175 37.39% 16.87% 45.74%-0.14 +1.3 11
1999-05-01 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-154.9 1175 1122 45.74% 16.87% 37.39%+0.14 -1.3 16
1999-05-01 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-428.4 1054 1403 9.63% 16.09% 74.27%-1.53 -28.5 11
1999-05-01 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 4-028.4 1403 1054 74.27% 16.09% 9.63%+1.53 +28.5 24
1999-05-02 Ekranas W 2-149.8 1696 1392 74.42% 16.08% 9.50%+1.54 +7.4 44
1999-05-02 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-249.8 1392 1696 9.50% 16.08% 74.42%-1.54 -7.4 25
1999-05-02 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 7-030.3 1806 1088 85.70% 13.28% 1.02%+3.49 +5.0 42
1999-05-02 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-730.3 1088 1806 1.02% 13.28% 85.70%-3.49 -5.0 9
1999-05-02 Dainava Alytus L 0-149.0 1165 985 65.79% 16.56% 17.65%+0.96 -45.6 15
1999-05-02 @ Nevezis W 1-049.0 985 1165 17.65% 16.56% 65.79%-0.96 +45.6 16
1999-05-02 Atlantas W 2-044.3 1796 1372 79.53% 15.43% 5.04%+2.11 +7.9 42
1999-05-02 @ Zalgiris L 0-244.3 1372 1796 5.04% 15.43% 79.53%-2.11 -8.0 18
1999-05-08 Kareda Siauliai L 0-343.4 1364 1811 5.75% 15.58% 78.67%-1.99 -13.2 18
1999-05-08 @ Atlantas W 3-043.4 1811 1364 78.67% 15.58% 5.75%+1.99 +13.2 45
1999-05-08 Nevezis W 2-145.4 1123 1120 45.38% 16.87% 37.75%+0.13 +26.0 14
1999-05-08 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-245.4 1120 1123 37.75% 16.87% 45.38%-0.13 -26.0 15
1999-05-08 Ekranas L 0-345.7 1431 1385 51.19% 16.84% 31.97%+0.33 -98.0 24
1999-05-08 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 3-045.7 1385 1431 31.97% 16.84% 51.19%-0.33 +98.0 28
1999-05-08 Dainava Alytus L 0-243.2 1083 1031 51.89% 16.83% 31.28%+0.36 -68.3 9
1999-05-08 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-043.2 1031 1083 31.28% 16.83% 51.89%-0.36 +68.3 19
1999-05-08 Kauno Jegeriai L 2-455.3 1174 1025 62.84% 16.65% 20.51%+0.81 -63.6 16
1999-05-08 @ Zalgiris B W 4-255.3 1025 1174 20.51% 16.65% 62.84%-0.81 +63.6 14
1999-05-09 Zalgiris D 1-174.4 1703 1804 31.11% 16.83% 52.06%-0.36 +3.4 45
1999-05-09 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-174.4 1804 1703 52.06% 16.83% 31.11%+0.36 -3.3 43
1999-05-13 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 2-034.2 1149 1014 61.48% 16.69% 21.84%+0.75 +32.3 17
1999-05-13 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-234.2 1014 1149 21.84% 16.69% 61.48%-0.75 -32.3 9
1999-05-13 Atlantas W 2-154.6 1099 1351 15.71% 16.48% 67.80%-1.07 +44.3 22
1999-05-13 @ Dainava Alytus L 1-254.6 1351 1099 67.80% 16.48% 15.71%+1.07 -44.4 18
1999-05-13 FBK Kaunas W 2-054.3 1824 1707 59.64% 16.72% 23.63%+0.66 +34.6 48
1999-05-13 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-254.3 1707 1824 23.63% 16.72% 59.64%-0.66 -34.6 45
1999-05-13 Ekranas L 1-236.8 1089 1483 7.61% 15.87% 76.52%-1.74 -6.0 14
1999-05-13 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 2-136.8 1483 1089 76.52% 15.87% 7.61%+1.74 +6.0 31
1999-05-13 Zalgiris B D 0-050.8 1094 1110 42.63% 16.88% 40.49%+0.04 -0.4 16
1999-05-13 @ Nevezis D 0-050.8 1110 1094 40.49% 16.88% 42.63%-0.04 +0.4 17
1999-05-13 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-169.9 1801 1333 80.86% 15.16% 3.99%+2.31 -13.7 44
1999-05-13 @ Zalgiris D 1-169.9 1333 1801 3.99% 15.16% 80.86%-2.31 +13.7 25
1999-05-22 FBK Kaunas W 2-162.6 1181 1672 4.54% 15.31% 80.15%-2.20 +52.7 20
1999-05-22 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-262.6 1672 1181 80.15% 15.31% 4.54%+2.20 -52.7 45
1999-05-22 Inkaras Kaunas L 1-240.3 1144 1347 19.82% 16.63% 63.55%-0.84 -14.8 22
1999-05-22 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-140.3 1347 1144 63.55% 16.63% 19.82%+0.84 +14.8 28
1999-05-22 Zalgiris L 0-134.3 1083 1787 1.43% 13.78% 84.79%-3.20 -1.2 14
1999-05-22 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 1-034.3 1787 1083 84.79% 13.78% 1.43%+3.20 +1.2 47
1999-05-22 Nevezis L 0-138.2 982 1094 29.75% 16.82% 53.44%-0.41 -22.5 9
1999-05-22 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 1-038.2 1094 982 53.44% 16.82% 29.75%+0.41 +22.5 19
1999-05-22 Atlantas D 2-260.1 1111 1307 20.49% 16.65% 62.86%-0.81 +5.3 18
1999-05-22 @ Zalgiris B D 2-260.1 1307 1111 62.86% 16.65% 20.49%+0.81 -5.3 19
1999-05-23 Ekranas D 1-173.8 1859 1489 77.53% 15.74% 6.72%+1.85 -12.5 49
1999-05-23 @ Kareda Siauliai D 1-173.8 1489 1859 6.72% 15.74% 77.53%-1.85 +12.5 32
1999-05-26 Banga Gargzdai L 0-146.0 1301 1234 53.84% 16.81% 29.35%+0.43 -37.5 19
1999-05-26 @ Atlantas W 1-046.0 1234 1301 29.35% 16.81% 53.84%-0.43 +37.5 23
1999-05-26 FBK Kaunas L 0-132.8 1129 1619 4.55% 15.31% 80.14%-2.20 -3.8 22
1999-05-26 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-032.8 1619 1129 80.14% 15.31% 4.55%+2.20 +3.8 48
1999-05-26 Zalgiris D 0-068.9 1501 1788 13.20% 16.36% 70.44%-1.24 +11.0 33
1999-05-26 @ Ekranas D 0-068.9 1788 1501 70.44% 16.36% 13.20%+1.24 -11.0 48
1999-05-26 Kareda Siauliai L 1-350.1 1362 1846 4.69% 15.35% 79.95%-2.17 -6.4 28
1999-05-26 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 3-150.1 1846 1362 79.95% 15.35% 4.69%+2.17 +6.4 52
1999-05-26 Zalgiris B L 0-333.7 960 1116 24.55% 16.74% 58.71%-0.62 -52.0 9
1999-05-26 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 3-033.7 1116 960 58.71% 16.74% 24.55%+0.62 +52.0 21
1999-05-26 Kauno Jegeriai W 2-144.1 1116 1082 49.59% 16.85% 33.56%+0.27 +23.5 22
1999-05-26 @ Nevezis L 1-244.1 1082 1116 33.56% 16.85% 49.59%-0.27 -23.5 14
1999-05-29 Zalgiris B W 5-133.5 1623 1168 80.51% 15.24% 4.26%+2.26 +10.6 51
1999-05-29 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-533.5 1168 1623 4.26% 15.24% 80.51%-2.26 -10.6 21
1999-05-30 Dainava Alytus W 3-135.3 1512 1125 78.23% 15.65% 6.13%+1.94 +8.4 36
1999-05-30 @ Ekranas L 1-335.3 1125 1512 6.13% 15.65% 78.23%-1.94 -8.4 22
1999-05-30 Banga Gargzdai W 2-037.0 1355 1272 55.82% 16.79% 27.39%+0.51 +39.4 31
1999-05-30 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-237.0 1272 1355 27.39% 16.79% 55.82%-0.51 -39.4 23
1999-05-30 Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 3-138.7 1058 908 63.08% 16.64% 20.27%+0.82 +26.1 17
1999-05-30 @ Kauno Jegeriai L 1-338.7 908 1058 20.27% 16.64% 63.08%-0.82 -26.1 9
1999-05-30 Atlantas L 0-236.3 1140 1264 28.19% 16.80% 55.01%-0.47 -40.4 22
1999-05-30 @ Nevezis W 2-036.3 1264 1140 55.01% 16.80% 28.19%+0.47 +40.4 22
1999-05-30 Kareda Siauliai W 1-063.7 1777 1852 34.36% 16.86% 48.79%-0.24 +34.3 51
1999-05-30 @ Zalgiris L 0-163.7 1852 1777 48.79% 16.86% 34.36%+0.24 -34.3 52
1999-06-03 Atlantas L 1-530.9 882 1304 6.53% 15.71% 77.76%-1.88 -16.3 9
1999-06-03 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas W 5-130.9 1304 882 77.76% 15.71% 6.53%+1.88 +16.3 25
1999-06-13 Ekranas L 0-234.1 1232 1521 13.08% 16.35% 70.57%-1.25 -20.1 23
1999-06-13 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-034.1 1521 1232 70.57% 16.35% 13.08%+1.25 +20.1 39
1999-06-13 Nevezis W 3-028.9 1634 1099 82.53% 14.70% 2.77%+2.63 +6.3 54
1999-06-13 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-328.9 1099 1634 2.77% 14.70% 82.53%-2.63 -6.3 22
1999-06-13 Kareda Siauliai L 1-239.9 1085 1818 1.21% 13.54% 85.25%-3.34 -0.9 17
1999-06-13 @ Kauno Jegeriai W 2-139.9 1818 1085 85.25% 13.54% 1.21%+3.34 +0.9 55
1999-06-13 Dainava Alytus W 5-031.7 1811 1117 85.37% 13.47% 1.16%+3.38 +4.1 54
1999-06-13 @ Zalgiris L 0-531.7 1117 1811 1.16% 13.47% 85.37%-3.38 -4.2 22
1999-06-13 Inkaras Kaunas L 1-239.6 1157 1395 16.84% 16.53% 66.63%-1.01 -12.7 21
1999-06-13 @ Zalgiris B W 2-139.6 1395 1157 66.63% 16.53% 16.84%+1.01 +12.7 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1998-08-23 2.54% Dainava Alytus 825 3 @ Atlantas 1375 1
2 1999-05-22 4.54% @ Banga Gargzdai 1181 2 FBK Kaunas 1672 1
3 1998-10-17 8.46% @ Nevezis 1130 1 Ekranas 1504 0
4 1998-07-10 9.25% Nevezis 1113 1 @ Atlantas 1422 0
5 1998-11-06 9.93% @ Zalgiris B 1109 3 Ekranas 1451 0
6 1998-08-29 11.55% @ Dainava Alytus 919 2 Lokomotyvas Kaunas 1232 0
7 1999-05-13 15.71% @ Dainava Alytus 1099 2 Atlantas 1351 1
8 1999-05-02 17.65% Dainava Alytus 985 1 @ Nevezis 1165 0
9 1998-09-19 17.67% Zalgiris B 1043 2 @ Kauno Jegeriai 1223 0
10 1999-04-24 20.34% Kauno Jegeriai 1013 2 @ Banga Gargzdai 1163 1
11 1999-05-08 20.51% Kauno Jegeriai 1025 4 @ Zalgiris B 1174 2
12 1998-10-03 23.13% @ Dainava Alytus 992 2 Zalgiris B 1161 1
13 1998-08-18 25.08% Banga Gargzdai 1169 1 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 1273 0
14 1998-09-12 26.63% @ Nevezis 1083 1 Banga Gargzdai 1220 0
15 1999-04-10 27.56% Dainava Alytus 968 3 @ Kauno Jegeriai 1051 2
16 1998-09-27 27.81% @ Atlantas 1273 3 Inkaras Kaunas 1400 1
17 1999-05-26 29.35% Banga Gargzdai 1234 1 @ Atlantas 1301 0
18 1998-08-29 29.98% @ Zalgiris B 1008 2 Nevezis 1118 1
19 1999-05-08 31.28% Dainava Alytus 1031 2 @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 1083 0
20 1999-05-08 31.97% Ekranas 1385 3 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1431 0
21 1999-05-30 34.36% @ Zalgiris 1777 1 Kareda Siauliai 1852 0
22 1998-09-27 37.57% @ Zalgiris B 1129 1 Banga Gargzdai 1181 0
23 1998-09-01 41.47% @ Ekranas 1479 2 Inkaras Kaunas 1503 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-11-06 141.01 @ Zalgiris B 3 1109 9.93% Ekranas 0 1451 73.94% 16.12%
2 1999-05-08 98.01 Ekranas 3 1385 31.97% @ Inkaras Kaunas 0 1431 51.19% 16.84%
3 1998-08-29 94.70 @ Dainava Alytus 2 919 11.55% Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1232 72.20% 16.25%
4 1998-08-23 94.05 Dainava Alytus 3 825 2.54% @ Atlantas 1 1375 82.87% 14.59%
5 1998-09-19 85.95 Zalgiris B 2 1043 17.67% @ Kauno Jegeriai 0 1223 65.77% 16.56%
6 1999-04-03 81.40 @ Ekranas 4 1310 53.01% Zalgiris B 0 1250 30.17% 16.82%
7 1999-05-08 68.33 Dainava Alytus 2 1031 31.28% @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1083 51.89% 16.83%
8 1999-05-08 63.59 Kauno Jegeriai 4 1025 20.51% @ Zalgiris B 2 1174 62.84% 16.65%
9 1998-09-27 62.89 @ Atlantas 3 1273 27.81% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1400 55.40% 16.79%
10 1998-09-01 56.40 @ Ekranas 2 1479 41.47% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1503 41.66% 16.88%
11 1998-10-17 53.93 @ Atlantas 7 1328 68.07% Kauno Jegeriai 1 1121 15.46% 16.47%
12 1999-05-22 52.71 @ Banga Gargzdai 2 1181 4.54% FBK Kaunas 1 1672 80.15% 15.31%
13 1998-10-17 52.67 @ Nevezis 1 1130 8.46% Ekranas 0 1504 75.57% 15.97%
14 1998-07-10 52.04 Nevezis 1 1113 9.25% @ Atlantas 0 1422 74.69% 16.06%
15 1999-05-26 52.02 Zalgiris B 3 1116 58.71% @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 960 24.55% 16.74%
16 1999-05-02 45.60 Dainava Alytus 1 985 17.65% @ Nevezis 0 1165 65.79% 16.56%
17 1999-05-13 44.35 @ Dainava Alytus 2 1099 15.71% Atlantas 1 1351 67.80% 16.48%
18 1999-04-24 41.16 Kauno Jegeriai 2 1013 20.34% @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1163 63.01% 16.65%
19 1998-10-24 40.45 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 1352 64.85% Nevezis 0 1183 18.56% 16.59%
20 1999-05-30 40.44 Atlantas 2 1264 55.01% @ Nevezis 0 1140 28.19% 16.80%
21 1998-08-18 40.35 Banga Gargzdai 1 1169 25.08% @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1273 58.17% 16.75%
22 1999-05-30 39.44 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1355 55.82% Banga Gargzdai 0 1272 27.39% 16.79%
23 1998-10-03 39.31 @ Dainava Alytus 2 992 23.13% Zalgiris B 1 1161 60.15% 16.71%
24 1998-09-12 39.30 @ Nevezis 1 1083 26.63% Banga Gargzdai 0 1220 56.60% 16.78%
25 1998-07-10 37.55 @ Ekranas 4 1448 70.82% Banga Gargzdai 0 1203 12.84% 16.34%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-08-02 77.5 @ Ekranas 2 1492 13.75% Kareda Siauliai 2 1771 69.86% 16.39%
2 1999-05-09 74.4 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1703 31.11% Zalgiris 1 1804 52.06% 16.83%
3 1999-05-23 73.8 @ Kareda Siauliai 1 1859 77.53% Ekranas 1 1489 6.72% 15.74%
4 1998-08-23 73.3 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1551 18.05% Kareda Siauliai 1 1773 65.38% 16.58%
5 1998-08-30 73.2 @ Zalgiris 1 1757 67.35% FBK Kaunas 1 1559 16.15% 16.50%
6 1998-07-15 70.3 @ Kareda Siauliai 0 1775 53.03% Zalgiris 0 1714 30.15% 16.82%
7 1999-05-13 69.9 @ Zalgiris 1 1801 80.86% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1333 3.99% 15.16%
8 1999-05-26 68.9 @ Ekranas 0 1501 13.20% Zalgiris 0 1788 70.44% 16.36%
9 1999-04-17 64.2 @ Nevezis 1 1153 1.85% Zalgiris 1 1809 83.99% 14.15%
10 1999-05-30 63.7 @ Zalgiris 1 1777 34.36% Kareda Siauliai 0 1852 48.79% 16.86%
11 1999-05-22 62.6 @ Banga Gargzdai 2 1181 4.54% FBK Kaunas 1 1672 80.15% 15.31%
12 1999-04-10 60.5 @ Ekranas 2 1391 70.88% Nevezis 2 1146 12.79% 16.33%
13 1999-05-22 60.1 @ Zalgiris B 2 1111 20.49% Atlantas 2 1307 62.86% 16.65%
14 1998-09-12 59.8 FBK Kaunas 2 1567 42.78% @ Ekranas 1 1535 40.34% 16.88%
15 1999-04-24 57.7 @ Atlantas 1 1372 42.12% Ekranas 1 1392 41.01% 16.88%
16 1998-08-23 56.9 Dainava Alytus 3 825 2.54% @ Atlantas 1 1375 82.87% 14.59%
17 1998-08-08 55.4 @ Kareda Siauliai 2 1764 71.07% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1515 12.61% 16.32%
18 1999-04-10 55.3 Dainava Alytus 3 968 27.56% @ Kauno Jegeriai 2 1051 55.65% 16.79%
19 1999-05-08 55.3 Kauno Jegeriai 4 1025 20.51% @ Zalgiris B 2 1174 62.84% 16.65%
20 1999-05-01 54.9 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1122 37.39% Zalgiris B 1 1175 45.74% 16.87%
21 1999-05-13 54.6 @ Dainava Alytus 2 1099 15.71% Atlantas 1 1351 67.80% 16.48%
22 1999-05-13 54.3 @ Kareda Siauliai 2 1824 59.64% FBK Kaunas 0 1707 23.63% 16.72%
23 1998-09-19 53.9 @ Ekranas 0 1508 70.90% Atlantas 0 1262 12.76% 16.33%
24 1999-04-25 53.3 @ FBK Kaunas 4 1682 72.20% Inkaras Kaunas 2 1416 11.55% 16.25%
25 1998-08-22 53.0 @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1209 12.56% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1506 71.12% 16.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-08-09 24.5 @ FBK Kaunas 12 1542 85.56% Dainava Alytus 0 834 1.08% 13.36%
2 1998-07-14 24.9 Ekranas 5 1485 83.76% @ Dainava Alytus 0 842 1.99% 14.25%
3 1998-08-27 27.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 1494 81.13% Zalgiris B 0 1017 3.78% 15.09%
4 1999-04-17 27.6 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1679 84.90% Kauno Jegeriai 0 1016 1.38% 13.73%
5 1999-04-03 28.1 @ Kareda Siauliai 3 1798 87.10% Dainava Alytus 0 970 0.55% 12.34%
6 1999-05-01 28.4 Inkaras Kaunas 4 1403 74.27% @ Kauno Jegeriai 0 1054 9.63% 16.09%
7 1998-07-14 28.6 FBK Kaunas 3 1523 78.72% @ Zalgiris B 0 1075 5.71% 15.57%
8 1998-09-26 28.8 FBK Kaunas 5 1630 80.22% @ Kauno Jegeriai 0 1137 4.48% 15.30%
9 1999-06-13 28.9 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1634 82.53% Nevezis 0 1099 2.77% 14.70%
10 1998-11-07 29.6 Kareda Siauliai 2 1797 86.50% @ Dainava Alytus 0 971 0.73% 12.77%
11 1998-10-25 30.3 @ Zalgiris 8 1765 84.67% Zalgiris B 0 1117 1.49% 13.84%
12 1999-05-02 30.3 @ Kareda Siauliai 7 1806 85.70% Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1088 1.02% 13.28%
13 1998-07-10 30.5 @ Ekranas 4 1448 70.82% Banga Gargzdai 0 1203 12.84% 16.34%
14 1998-08-01 30.5 @ Atlantas 2 1370 74.63% Zalgiris B 0 1062 9.30% 16.06%
15 1998-10-17 30.7 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1654 82.76% Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1109 2.62% 14.62%
16 1998-10-04 30.8 @ Zalgiris 6 1758 84.20% Nevezis 0 1138 1.74% 14.06%
17 1999-06-03 30.9 Atlantas 5 1304 77.76% @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 1 882 6.53% 15.71%
18 1999-04-10 31.6 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1370 71.49% Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1116 12.21% 16.30%
19 1998-10-17 31.7 @ Atlantas 7 1328 68.07% Kauno Jegeriai 1 1121 15.46% 16.47%
20 1999-06-13 31.7 @ Zalgiris 5 1811 85.37% Dainava Alytus 0 1117 1.16% 13.47%
21 1998-10-17 31.9 Kareda Siauliai 4 1788 84.16% @ Zalgiris B 0 1122 1.76% 14.08%
22 1998-11-07 32.0 FBK Kaunas 2 1658 80.88% @ Nevezis 0 1142 3.96% 15.15%
23 1998-10-24 32.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 1352 64.85% Nevezis 0 1183 18.56% 16.59%
24 1998-09-26 32.8 Ekranas 1 1496 75.13% @ Lokomotyvas Kaunas 0 1132 8.85% 16.02%
25 1999-05-26 32.8 FBK Kaunas 1 1619 80.14% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1129 4.55% 15.31%