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1999 A Lyga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Zalgiris Kaunas

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Atlantas

7.98 points above expected

33 points · 25.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kareda Siauliai

6.31 points below expected

30 points · 36.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zalgiris Kaunas 18 12 5 1 41 36 10 +26 36.53 +4.47
2 Zalgiris 18 10 6 2 36 33 9 +24 39.82 -3.82
3 Atlantas 18 9 6 3 33 34 24 +10 25.02 +7.98
4 Kareda Siauliai 18 9 3 6 30 31 18 +13 36.31 -6.31
5 Ekranas 18 7 8 3 29 22 11 +11 30.20 -1.20
6 Inkaras Kaunas 18 8 5 5 29 25 18 +7 25.40 +3.60
7 Nevezis 18 3 7 8 16 10 22 -12 13.52 +2.48
8 Ardena Vilnius 18 2 6 10 12 10 26 -16 14.45 -2.45
9 Banga Gargzdai 18 1 7 10 10 12 40 -28 14.26 -4.26
10 Dainava Alytus 18 1 3 14 6 9 44 -35 9.36 -3.36

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atlantas 33 25.02 +7.98
2 Zalgiris Kaunas 41 36.53 +4.47
3 Inkaras Kaunas 29 25.40 +3.60
4 Nevezis 16 13.52 +2.48
5 Ekranas 29 30.20 -1.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kareda Siauliai 30 36.31 -6.31
2 Banga Gargzdai 10 14.26 -4.26
3 Zalgiris 36 39.82 -3.82
4 Dainava Alytus 6 9.36 -3.36
5 Ardena Vilnius 12 14.45 -2.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inkaras Kaunas 4 Sep 18 – Oct 2 1 in 822
2 Banga Gargzdai 1 Oct 2 – Oct 2 1 in 191
3 Zalgiris Kaunas 7 Jul 10 – Sep 19 1 in 116
4 Nevezis 2 Aug 1 – Aug 7 1 in 33
5 Ardena Vilnius 1 Aug 28 – Aug 28 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kareda Siauliai 2 Jul 28 – Aug 1 1 in 121
2 Inkaras Kaunas 2 Aug 28 – Sep 11 1 in 62
3 Zalgiris Kaunas 1 Jul 6 – Jul 6 1 in 43
4 Dainava Alytus 6 Jul 6 – Aug 1 1 in 13
5 Banga Gargzdai 5 Aug 20 – Sep 23 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 10 Sep 11 – Nov 6 1 in 114
2 Dainava Alytus 3 Aug 6 – Aug 28 1 in 25
3 Zalgiris Kaunas 17 Jul 10 – Nov 6 1 in 23
4 Nevezis 4 Aug 1 – Aug 22 1 in 17
5 Banga Gargzdai 3 Jul 16 – Aug 1 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zalgiris 2 Aug 22 – Aug 28 1 in 24
2 Kareda Siauliai 3 Jul 28 – Aug 6 1 in 17
3 Banga Gargzdai 12 Jul 6 – Sep 23 1 in 16
4 Nevezis 11 Aug 22 – Nov 6 1 in 8
5 Inkaras Kaunas 6 Aug 1 – Sep 11 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Zalgiris Kaunas 1821 41 +35 11 10.5 +0.5
Zalgiris 1778 36 -25 10 11.0 -1.0
Atlantas 1566 33 +117 11 5.9 +5.1
Kareda Siauliai 1496 30 -137 5 7.7 -2.7
Inkaras Kaunas 1499 29 +65 7 4.8 +2.2
Ekranas 1624 29 +73 6 6.6 -0.6
Nevezis 1128 16 -15 2 3.8 -1.8
Ardena Vilnius 1182 12 +23 3 4.3 -1.3
Banga Gargzdai 1109 10 -24 2 3.2 -1.2
Dainava Alytus 975 6 -66 1 3.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AV ATL BG DA EKR IK KS NEV ZAL ZK
Ardena Vilnius —
0-1-1
1.47
0-2-0
2.59
1-0-1
3.66
0-1-1
0.83
1-0-1
0.94
0-0-2
0.53
0-1-1
2.90
0-0-2
0.50
0-1-1
0.53
Atlantas
1-1-0
3.91
 —
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.74
1-0-1
1.50
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
2.20
2-0-0
4.12
0-1-1
0.91
0-1-1
1.01
Banga Gargzdai
0-2-0
2.75
0-1-1
1.30
 —
1-1-0
3.63
0-1-1
0.86
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-2
0.65
0-2-0
2.97
0-0-2
0.51
0-0-2
0.51
Dainava Alytus
1-0-1
1.70
0-0-2
0.75
0-1-1
1.73
 —
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.96
0-0-2
0.48
0-1-1
1.81
0-1-1
0.38
0-0-2
0.60
Ekranas
1-1-0
4.63
1-0-1
3.86
1-1-0
4.59
2-0-0
4.75
 —
0-2-0
3.53
2-0-0
1.72
0-2-0
4.59
0-1-1
1.22
0-1-1
1.64
Inkaras Kaunas
1-0-1
4.50
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.47
0-2-0
1.82
 —
1-1-0
1.13
2-0-0
3.87
0-1-1
1.04
0-0-2
1.25
Kareda Siauliai
2-0-0
5.05
0-1-1
3.15
2-0-0
4.87
2-0-0
5.12
0-0-2
3.65
0-1-1
4.27
 —
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.95
Nevezis
1-1-0
2.44
0-0-2
1.27
0-2-0
2.38
1-1-0
3.54
0-2-0
0.86
0-0-2
1.50
0-0-2
0.84
 —
0-1-1
0.49
1-0-1
0.61
Zalgiris
2-0-0
5.10
1-1-0
4.53
2-0-0
5.08
1-1-0
5.28
1-1-0
4.17
1-1-0
4.37
1-0-1
2.95
1-1-0
5.11
 —
0-1-1
3.20
Zalgiris Kaunas
1-1-0
5.05
1-1-0
4.41
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.95
1-1-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.14
1-1-0
2.43
1-0-1
4.92
1-1-0
2.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +10.5
Allowed 0.75 -8.8
Differential 0.97 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.44%7.22%6.11%3.33%3.33%2.22%36.67%
17.22%12.22%5.00%3.89%1.67%—30.00%
26.11%5.00%4.44%1.11%0.56%—17.22%
33.33%3.89%1.11%———8.33%
43.33%1.67%0.56%———5.56%
5+2.22%—————2.22%
Total36.67%30.00%17.22%8.33%5.56%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 2.08
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%16.67%11.11%——66.67%
1—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2———————
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 1.44 -0.89
SD 0.98 1.20 1.53
CV 1.77 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.33 +0.56
SD 1.37 1.28 2.15
CV 0.72 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%50.00%
1—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%27.78%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.22 -1.56
SD 0.77 1.56 1.98
CV 1.15 0.70 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%5.56%61.11%
1——16.67%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%5.56%33.33%11.11%27.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.44 -1.94
SD 0.71 1.54 1.86
CV 1.41 0.63 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—5.56%———33.33%
111.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.61 +0.61
SD 1.31 0.78 1.54
CV 1.07 1.27 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%—55.56%
216.67%——5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.00 +0.39
SD 0.98 1.24 1.69
CV 0.70 1.24 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.00 +0.72
SD 1.36 1.24 2.05
CV 0.79 1.24 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%16.67%—5.56%—50.00%
111.11%22.22%—11.11%——44.44%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 1.22 -0.67
SD 0.62 1.22 1.46
CV 1.11 0.99 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%————27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total55.56%38.89%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.50 +1.33
SD 1.76 0.62 1.91
CV 0.96 1.24 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
116.67%—————16.67%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total61.11%22.22%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.56 +1.44
SD 1.64 0.78 1.65
CV 0.82 1.41 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Zalgiris Kaunas 1821 41 36.53 +4.47 90.0% 24 28 34 37 40 42 45
Zalgiris 1778 36 39.82 -3.82 25.0% 26 31 36 40 43 47 52
Ekranas 1624 29 30.20 -1.20 43.0% 17 22 27 30 33 37 42
Atlantas 1566 33 25.02 +7.98 96.0% 14 17 22 24 28 33 36
Inkaras Kaunas 1499 29 25.40 +3.60 78.0% 11 17 23 25 29 32 35
Kareda Siauliai 1496 30 36.31 -6.31 14.0% 23 28 33 37 40 43 46
Ardena Vilnius 1182 12 14.45 -2.45 31.0% 6 7 12 14 18 20 27
Nevezis 1128 16 13.52 +2.48 73.0% 5 7 11 13 17 20 23
Banga Gargzdai 1109 10 14.26 -4.26 16.0% 6 8 11 14 17 21 24
Dainava Alytus 975 6 9.36 -3.36 17.0% 2 5 7 10 12 14 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-4.44%
No Edge
32.22%31.11%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -15.45 Elo pts.
276 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.02 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
Zalgiris Kaunas, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Comfortable
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.4 * Some Luck: 3.4 to 5.1 * Lucky: 5.1 to 6.79 * Wild Swing: 6.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.68 * Close: 0.68 to 1.02 * Off: 1.02 to 1.36 * Way Off: 1.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.40 points
Some Luck
04.2511
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Off
00.852
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Atlantas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.00%
Kareda Siauliai
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 298.35
2.26
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
94%
Wide Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.68
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.09
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.78
Strong Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%11%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%10%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.79
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.119
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Zalgiris Kaunas22.00%36.00%28.00%10.00%4.00%—————
Zalgiris53.00%25.00%17.00%5.00%——————
Atlantas—1.00%6.00%13.00%32.00%44.00%3.00%—1.00%—
Kareda Siauliai22.00%33.00%21.00%18.00%6.00%—————
Ekranas3.00%3.00%21.00%37.00%24.00%12.00%————
Inkaras Kaunas—2.00%7.00%16.00%33.00%34.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%—
Nevezis—————4.00%29.00%25.00%29.00%13.00%
Ardena Vilnius———1.00%—3.00%36.00%30.00%13.00%17.00%
Banga Gargzdai————1.00%3.00%26.00%32.00%27.00%11.00%
Dainava Alytus———————12.00%29.00%59.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Atlantas 99.00% 1.00% —
Ekranas 100% — —
Inkaras Kaunas 98.00% 2.00% —
Kareda Siauliai 100% — —
Zalgiris 100% — —
Zalgiris Kaunas 100% — —
Banga Gargzdai 30.00% 59.00% 11.00%
Nevezis 33.00% 54.00% 13.00%
Ardena Vilnius 40.00% 43.00% 17.00%
Dainava Alytus — 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1999-07-05 Atlantas D 1-153.2 1407 1320 44.92% 32.67% 22.41%+0.26 -4.9 1
1999-07-05 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-153.2 1320 1407 22.41% 32.67% 44.92%-0.26 +4.9 1
1999-07-06 Banga Gargzdai D 1-154.8 1541 1212 64.76% 28.67% 6.57%+1.13 -14.8 1
1999-07-06 @ Ekranas D 1-154.8 1212 1541 6.57% 28.67% 64.76%-1.13 +14.8 1
1999-07-06 Nevezis L 0-154.9 1640 1093 75.00% 22.68% 2.32%+1.93 -74.5 0
1999-07-06 @ Zalgiris Kaunas W 1-054.9 1093 1640 2.32% 22.68% 75.00%-1.93 +74.5 3
1999-07-06 Dainava Alytus W 3-032.7 1819 1113 80.84% 18.07% 1.09%+2.50 +3.6 3
1999-07-06 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-332.7 1113 1819 1.09% 18.07% 80.84%-2.50 -3.6 0
1999-07-09 Atlantas L 0-237.3 1216 1325 20.03% 32.48% 47.50%-0.45 -50.9 0
1999-07-09 @ Ardena Vilnius W 2-037.3 1325 1216 47.50% 32.48% 20.03%+0.45 +50.9 4
1999-07-10 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-138.2 1227 1402 14.29% 31.68% 54.03%-0.69 -20.7 1
1999-07-10 @ Banga Gargzdai W 1-038.2 1402 1227 54.03% 31.68% 14.29%+0.69 +20.7 4
1999-07-10 Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-133.5 1109 1566 3.56% 25.30% 71.14%-1.71 -5.2 0
1999-07-10 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-033.5 1566 1109 71.14% 25.30% 3.56%+1.71 +5.2 3
1999-07-10 Ekranas D 1-154.1 1167 1526 5.67% 27.93% 66.39%-1.35 +15.5 4
1999-07-10 @ Nevezis D 1-154.1 1526 1167 66.39% 27.93% 5.67%+1.35 -15.5 2
1999-07-10 Kareda Siauliai L 1-268.6 1815 1823 32.45% 33.00% 34.55%-0.08 -35.9 0
1999-07-10 @ Zalgiris W 2-168.6 1823 1815 34.55% 33.00% 32.45%+0.08 +35.8 6
1999-07-16 Banga Gargzdai D 2-257.8 1376 1206 53.56% 31.76% 14.69%+0.56 -6.8 5
1999-07-16 @ Atlantas D 2-257.8 1206 1376 14.69% 31.76% 53.56%-0.56 +6.8 2
1999-07-16 Dainava Alytus W 4-134.8 1510 1104 68.82% 26.68% 4.50%+1.42 +15.8 5
1999-07-16 @ Ekranas L 1-434.8 1104 1510 4.50% 26.68% 68.82%-1.42 -15.8 0
1999-07-16 Nevezis W 1-036.5 1423 1183 59.17% 30.59% 10.24%+0.81 +15.6 7
1999-07-16 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-136.5 1183 1423 10.24% 30.59% 59.17%-0.81 -15.6 4
1999-07-16 Ardena Vilnius W 1-040.0 1859 1165 80.40% 18.44% 1.16%+2.46 +1.4 9
1999-07-16 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-140.0 1165 1859 1.16% 18.44% 80.40%-2.46 -1.4 0
1999-07-24 Ardena Vilnius W 4-139.0 1780 1164 77.65% 20.68% 1.68%+2.17 +5.0 3
1999-07-24 @ Zalgiris L 1-439.0 1164 1780 1.68% 20.68% 77.65%-2.17 -5.0 0
1999-07-28 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-231.7 1088 1439 5.90% 28.13% 65.96%-1.33 -17.2 0
1999-07-28 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-031.7 1439 1088 65.96% 28.13% 5.90%+1.33 +17.2 10
1999-07-28 Zalgiris Kaunas L 2-477.2 1860 1571 62.42% 29.58% 8.00%+0.99 -95.4 9
1999-07-28 @ Kareda Siauliai W 4-277.2 1571 1860 8.00% 29.58% 62.42%-0.99 +95.4 6
1999-07-28 Atlantas L 0-432.7 1167 1370 12.45% 31.26% 56.29%-0.79 -66.1 4
1999-07-28 @ Nevezis W 4-032.7 1370 1167 56.29% 31.26% 12.45%+0.79 +66.1 8
1999-07-28 Banga Gargzdai D 1-151.0 1159 1213 26.22% 32.87% 40.91%-0.25 +3.1 1
1999-07-28 @ Ardena Vilnius D 1-151.0 1213 1159 40.91% 32.87% 26.22%+0.25 -3.1 3
1999-08-01 Dainava Alytus W 5-029.5 1436 1071 66.71% 27.78% 5.51%+1.27 +37.4 11
1999-08-01 @ Atlantas L 0-529.5 1071 1436 5.51% 27.78% 66.71%-1.27 -37.4 0
1999-08-01 Nevezis D 1-151.0 1210 1101 47.41% 32.48% 20.11%+0.34 -6.1 4
1999-08-01 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-151.0 1101 1210 20.11% 32.48% 47.41%-0.34 +6.1 5
1999-08-01 Kareda Siauliai W 1-068.1 1526 1765 10.35% 30.62% 59.03%-0.92 +62.0 8
1999-08-01 @ Ekranas L 0-168.1 1765 1526 59.03% 30.62% 10.35%+0.92 -62.0 9
1999-08-01 Zalgiris D 1-169.2 1456 1785 6.57% 28.67% 64.76%-1.25 +14.8 11
1999-08-01 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-169.2 1785 1456 64.76% 28.67% 6.57%+1.25 -14.8 4
1999-08-01 Zalgiris L 1-343.1 1204 1770 2.12% 22.13% 75.74%-2.11 -4.7 4
1999-08-01 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-143.1 1770 1204 75.74% 22.13% 2.12%+2.11 +4.7 7
1999-08-01 Ardena Vilnius W 1-035.0 1588 1162 69.76% 26.14% 4.10%+1.49 +6.1 11
1999-08-01 @ Ekranas L 0-135.0 1162 1588 4.10% 26.14% 69.76%-1.49 -6.1 1
1999-08-01 Zalgiris Kaunas L 1-452.4 1471 1666 12.89% 31.37% 55.74%-0.76 -43.9 11
1999-08-01 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 4-152.4 1666 1471 55.74% 31.37% 12.89%+0.76 +43.9 9
1999-08-01 Dainava Alytus W 2-038.0 1107 1033 43.36% 32.76% 23.88%+0.21 +57.9 8
1999-08-01 @ Nevezis L 0-238.0 1033 1107 23.88% 32.76% 43.36%-0.21 -57.9 0
1999-08-06 Banga Gargzdai D 2-257.3 976 1199 11.17% 30.90% 57.94%-0.87 +8.5 1
1999-08-06 @ Dainava Alytus D 2-257.3 1199 976 57.94% 30.90% 11.17%+0.87 -8.5 5
1999-08-06 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-166.2 1703 1427 61.58% 29.87% 8.55%+0.94 -13.2 10
1999-08-06 @ Kareda Siauliai D 1-166.2 1427 1703 8.55% 29.87% 61.58%-0.94 +13.2 12
1999-08-07 Nevezis L 0-142.9 1156 1165 32.14% 32.99% 34.86%-0.09 -37.8 1
1999-08-07 @ Ardena Vilnius W 1-042.9 1165 1156 34.86% 32.99% 32.14%+0.09 +37.8 11
1999-08-08 Atlantas W 5-047.4 1774 1473 63.17% 29.31% 7.52%+1.04 +51.4 10
1999-08-08 @ Zalgiris L 0-547.4 1473 1774 7.52% 29.31% 63.17%-1.04 -51.4 11
1999-08-20 Atlantas W 3-152.7 1710 1422 62.38% 29.59% 8.02%+0.99 +20.3 12
1999-08-20 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 1-352.7 1422 1710 8.02% 29.59% 62.38%-0.99 -20.2 11
1999-08-20 Banga Gargzdai W 3-033.3 1689 1190 72.99% 24.09% 2.91%+1.75 +11.4 13
1999-08-20 @ Kareda Siauliai L 0-333.3 1190 1689 2.91% 24.09% 72.99%-1.75 -11.4 5
1999-08-21 Dainava Alytus L 0-245.7 1118 984 50.07% 32.22% 17.70%+0.43 -100.1 1
1999-08-21 @ Ardena Vilnius W 2-045.7 984 1118 17.70% 32.22% 50.07%-0.43 +100.2 4
1999-08-22 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-057.3 1594 1440 52.09% 31.97% 15.94%+0.50 -9.4 12
1999-08-22 @ Ekranas D 0-057.3 1440 1594 15.94% 31.97% 52.09%-0.50 +9.4 13
1999-08-22 Nevezis D 0-060.6 1826 1203 77.91% 20.47% 1.62%+2.20 -21.2 11
1999-08-22 @ Zalgiris D 0-060.6 1203 1826 1.62% 20.47% 77.91%-2.20 +21.2 12
1999-08-28 Ekranas L 1-252.2 1401 1585 13.71% 31.56% 54.73%-0.72 -18.9 11
1999-08-28 @ Atlantas W 2-152.2 1585 1401 54.73% 31.56% 13.71%+0.72 +18.9 15
1999-08-28 Zalgiris D 0-056.4 1084 1805 1.01% 17.69% 81.30%-2.66 +21.7 5
1999-08-28 @ Dainava Alytus D 0-056.4 1805 1084 81.30% 17.69% 1.01%+2.66 -21.7 12
1999-08-28 Ardena Vilnius L 1-356.0 1449 1018 70.00% 26.00% 4.00%+1.51 -117.1 13
1999-08-28 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 3-156.0 1018 1449 4.00% 26.00% 70.00%-1.51 +117.1 4
1999-08-29 Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-333.6 1179 1730 2.28% 22.56% 75.16%-2.05 -8.5 5
1999-08-29 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-033.6 1730 1179 75.16% 22.56% 2.28%+2.05 +8.5 15
1999-09-11 Inkaras Kaunas W 3-254.1 1383 1332 40.40% 32.89% 26.71%+0.13 +29.8 14
1999-09-11 @ Atlantas L 2-354.1 1332 1383 26.71% 32.89% 40.40%-0.13 -29.8 13
1999-09-11 Ekranas L 0-233.0 1171 1604 3.97% 25.95% 70.08%-1.63 -11.2 5
1999-09-11 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-033.0 1604 1171 70.08% 25.95% 3.97%+1.63 +11.2 18
1999-09-11 Kareda Siauliai L 0-429.7 1106 1701 1.85% 21.29% 76.86%-2.21 -8.8 5
1999-09-11 @ Dainava Alytus W 4-029.7 1701 1106 76.86% 21.29% 1.85%+2.21 +8.8 16
1999-09-11 Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-237.5 1224 1739 2.70% 23.63% 73.67%-1.92 -7.2 12
1999-09-11 @ Nevezis W 2-037.5 1739 1224 73.67% 23.63% 2.70%+1.92 +7.2 18
1999-09-11 Zalgiris L 0-332.8 1135 1783 1.44% 19.74% 78.82%-2.40 -5.0 4
1999-09-11 @ Ardena Vilnius W 3-032.8 1783 1135 78.82% 19.74% 1.44%+2.40 +5.0 15
1999-09-18 Banga Gargzdai W 2-036.0 1302 1159 51.00% 32.11% 16.88%+0.46 +44.7 16
1999-09-18 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-236.0 1159 1302 16.88% 32.11% 51.00%-0.46 -44.7 5
1999-09-19 Ardena Vilnius D 0-047.4 1412 1130 62.00% 29.73% 8.27%+0.97 -15.0 15
1999-09-19 @ Atlantas D 0-047.4 1130 1412 8.27% 29.73% 62.00%-0.97 +15.0 5
1999-09-19 Nevezis D 0-052.0 1615 1217 68.40% 26.91% 4.69%+1.39 -18.3 19
1999-09-19 @ Ekranas D 0-052.0 1217 1615 4.69% 26.91% 68.40%-1.39 +18.3 13
1999-09-19 Dainava Alytus W 2-140.2 1746 1097 78.86% 19.71% 1.43%+2.29 +1.7 21
1999-09-19 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 1-240.2 1097 1746 1.43% 19.71% 78.86%-2.29 -1.7 5
1999-09-19 Zalgiris L 0-159.6 1710 1788 23.35% 32.73% 43.92%-0.34 -30.2 16
1999-09-19 @ Kareda Siauliai W 1-059.6 1788 1710 43.92% 32.73% 23.35%+0.34 +30.2 18
1999-09-22 Ekranas W 2-161.0 1818 1597 57.78% 30.94% 11.29%+0.75 +16.0 21
1999-09-22 @ Zalgiris L 1-261.0 1597 1818 11.29% 30.94% 57.78%-0.75 -16.0 19
1999-09-22 Ardena Vilnius D 0-055.5 1748 1145 77.17% 21.05% 1.78%+2.13 -21.1 22
1999-09-22 @ Zalgiris Kaunas D 0-055.5 1145 1748 1.78% 21.05% 77.17%-2.13 +21.1 6
1999-09-22 Kareda Siauliai L 0-236.7 1235 1679 3.77% 25.65% 70.57%-1.66 -10.6 13
1999-09-22 @ Nevezis W 2-036.7 1679 1235 70.57% 25.65% 3.77%+1.66 +10.5 19
1999-09-23 Atlantas L 1-241.1 1115 1397 8.27% 29.73% 62.01%-1.08 -12.0 5
1999-09-23 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-141.1 1397 1115 62.01% 29.73% 8.27%+1.08 +12.0 18
1999-09-25 Ekranas L 0-428.8 1095 1581 3.11% 24.48% 72.41%-1.81 -16.0 5
1999-09-25 @ Dainava Alytus W 4-028.8 1581 1095 72.41% 24.48% 3.11%+1.81 +16.0 22
1999-09-25 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-237.0 1225 1347 18.75% 32.35% 48.90%-0.50 -48.5 13
1999-09-25 @ Nevezis W 2-037.0 1347 1225 48.90% 32.35% 18.75%+0.50 +48.4 19
1999-09-25 Kareda Siauliai L 0-233.8 1166 1690 2.59% 23.37% 74.04%-1.95 -6.9 6
1999-09-25 @ Ardena Vilnius W 2-033.8 1690 1166 74.04% 23.37% 2.59%+1.95 +6.9 22
1999-09-25 Zalgiris Kaunas D 0-065.6 1834 1727 47.26% 32.50% 20.24%+0.33 -6.7 22
1999-09-25 @ Zalgiris D 0-065.6 1727 1834 20.24% 32.50% 47.26%-0.33 +6.7 23
1999-10-02 Ekranas W 2-054.3 1734 1597 50.38% 32.19% 17.44%+0.44 +45.8 26
1999-10-02 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-254.3 1597 1734 17.44% 32.19% 50.38%-0.44 -45.8 22
1999-10-02 Dainava Alytus W 4-030.1 1396 1079 64.04% 28.97% 6.99%+1.09 +38.8 22
1999-10-02 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-430.1 1079 1396 6.99% 28.97% 64.04%-1.09 -38.7 5
1999-10-02 Zalgiris D 1-169.8 1409 1827 4.27% 26.37% 69.37%-1.57 +16.7 19
1999-10-02 @ Atlantas D 1-169.8 1827 1409 69.37% 26.37% 4.27%+1.57 -16.8 23
1999-10-02 Dainava Alytus W 2-146.6 1103 1041 41.91% 32.83% 25.26%+0.17 +30.1 8
1999-10-02 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-246.6 1041 1103 25.26% 32.83% 41.91%-0.17 -30.2 5
1999-10-02 Kareda Siauliai W 1-065.0 1434 1697 9.16% 30.15% 60.69%-1.01 +63.6 25
1999-10-02 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-165.0 1697 1434 60.69% 30.15% 9.16%+1.01 -63.6 22
1999-10-02 Nevezis D 0-046.1 1010 1176 15.03% 31.82% 53.15%-0.66 +10.0 6
1999-10-02 @ Dainava Alytus D 0-046.1 1176 1010 53.15% 31.82% 15.03%+0.66 -10.0 14
1999-10-02 Inkaras Kaunas W 1-052.4 1779 1498 61.93% 29.75% 8.32%+0.96 +12.8 29
1999-10-02 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-152.4 1498 1779 8.32% 29.75% 61.93%-0.96 -12.8 25
1999-10-02 Banga Gargzdai W 5-033.0 1811 1133 79.87% 18.89% 1.25%+2.40 +6.8 26
1999-10-02 @ Zalgiris L 0-533.0 1133 1811 1.25% 18.89% 79.87%-2.40 -6.8 8
1999-10-03 Nevezis W 3-139.6 1426 1166 60.52% 30.20% 9.28%+0.88 +23.2 22
1999-10-03 @ Atlantas L 1-339.6 1166 1426 9.28% 30.20% 60.52%-0.88 -23.2 14
1999-10-03 Ardena Vilnius D 0-045.9 1126 1159 28.93% 32.95% 38.12%-0.18 +2.1 9
1999-10-03 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-045.9 1159 1126 38.12% 32.95% 28.93%+0.18 -2.1 7
1999-10-03 Zalgiris D 0-065.4 1551 1817 8.97% 30.06% 60.97%-1.02 +14.5 23
1999-10-03 @ Ekranas D 0-065.4 1817 1551 60.97% 30.06% 8.97%+1.02 -14.5 27
1999-10-03 Kareda Siauliai D 2-276.2 1792 1633 52.54% 31.91% 15.55%+0.52 -6.4 30
1999-10-03 @ Zalgiris Kaunas D 2-276.2 1633 1792 15.55% 31.91% 52.54%-0.52 +6.4 23
1999-10-03 Zalgiris Kaunas D 2-275.1 1449 1786 6.32% 28.48% 65.19%-1.27 +11.2 23
1999-10-03 @ Atlantas D 2-275.1 1786 1449 65.19% 28.48% 6.32%+1.27 -11.2 31
1999-10-03 Kareda Siauliai L 0-429.9 1128 1639 2.75% 23.73% 73.52%-1.91 -13.9 9
1999-10-03 @ Banga Gargzdai W 4-029.9 1639 1128 73.52% 23.73% 2.75%+1.91 +13.9 26
1999-10-03 Ardena Vilnius L 1-341.8 1020 1157 17.46% 32.19% 50.35%-0.55 -39.7 6
1999-10-03 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-141.8 1157 1020 50.35% 32.19% 17.46%+0.55 +39.7 10
1999-10-03 Ekranas D 1-162.7 1485 1565 23.14% 32.72% 44.15%-0.35 +4.6 26
1999-10-03 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-162.7 1565 1485 44.15% 32.72% 23.14%+0.35 -4.6 24
1999-10-03 Zalgiris L 0-137.5 1143 1803 1.36% 19.40% 79.24%-2.45 -1.7 14
1999-10-03 @ Nevezis W 1-037.5 1803 1143 79.24% 19.40% 1.36%+2.45 +1.7 30
1999-10-13 Zalgiris W 1-064.2 1775 1805 29.33% 32.96% 37.71%-0.16 +42.2 34
1999-10-13 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-164.2 1805 1775 37.71% 32.96% 29.33%+0.16 -42.2 30
1999-10-13 Kareda Siauliai W 3-274.2 1460 1653 13.07% 31.41% 55.52%-0.75 +52.3 26
1999-10-13 @ Atlantas L 2-374.2 1653 1460 55.52% 31.41% 13.07%+0.75 -52.3 26
1999-10-13 Ekranas D 0-050.1 1197 1561 5.53% 27.79% 66.68%-1.37 +17.5 11
1999-10-13 @ Ardena Vilnius D 0-050.1 1561 1197 66.68% 27.79% 5.53%+1.37 -17.5 25
1999-10-16 Atlantas L 1-237.3 981 1513 2.49% 23.13% 74.38%-1.98 -3.3 6
1999-10-16 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-137.3 1513 981 74.38% 23.13% 2.49%+1.98 +3.3 29
1999-10-16 Ekranas L 0-356.7 1601 1543 41.36% 32.85% 25.79%+0.15 -123.9 26
1999-10-16 @ Kareda Siauliai W 3-056.7 1543 1601 25.79% 32.85% 41.36%-0.15 +123.9 28
1999-10-16 Banga Gargzdai D 1-150.8 1141 1114 37.31% 32.97% 29.72%+0.04 -1.6 15
1999-10-16 @ Nevezis D 1-150.8 1114 1141 29.72% 32.97% 37.31%-0.04 +1.6 10
1999-10-16 Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-337.5 1214 1817 1.79% 21.06% 77.15%-2.24 -6.4 11
1999-10-16 @ Ardena Vilnius W 3-037.5 1817 1214 77.15% 21.06% 1.79%+2.24 +6.4 37
1999-10-16 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-158.1 1762 1490 61.38% 29.93% 8.69%+0.93 +12.6 33
1999-10-16 @ Zalgiris L 1-258.1 1490 1762 8.69% 29.93% 61.38%-0.93 -12.6 26
1999-11-03 Zalgiris Kaunas D 0-065.6 1667 1823 15.80% 31.95% 52.24%-0.62 +9.4 29
1999-11-03 @ Ekranas D 0-065.6 1823 1667 52.24% 31.95% 15.80%+0.62 -9.4 38
1999-11-03 Ardena Vilnius D 1-151.0 1140 1208 24.55% 32.80% 42.65%-0.30 +3.9 16
1999-11-03 @ Nevezis D 1-151.0 1208 1140 42.65% 32.80% 24.55%+0.30 -3.9 12
1999-11-03 Atlantas D 0-055.5 1477 1516 28.18% 32.93% 38.89%-0.20 +2.5 27
1999-11-03 @ Kareda Siauliai D 0-055.5 1516 1477 38.89% 32.93% 28.18%+0.20 -2.5 30
1999-11-06 Atlantas L 1-270.7 1677 1513 52.92% 31.85% 15.23%+0.54 -52.7 29
1999-11-06 @ Ekranas W 2-170.7 1513 1677 15.23% 31.85% 52.92%-0.54 +52.7 33
1999-11-06 Banga Gargzdai W 6-032.5 1814 1116 80.55% 18.32% 1.13%+2.47 +7.2 41
1999-11-06 @ Zalgiris Kaunas L 0-632.5 1116 1814 1.13% 18.32% 80.55%-2.47 -7.2 10
1999-11-06 Nevezis W 3-138.4 1480 1144 65.16% 28.50% 6.34%+1.16 +16.0 30
1999-11-06 @ Kareda Siauliai L 1-338.4 1144 1480 6.34% 28.50% 65.16%-1.16 -16.0 16
1999-11-06 Inkaras Kaunas L 1-340.1 1204 1477 8.67% 29.92% 61.41%-1.05 -21.8 12
1999-11-06 @ Ardena Vilnius W 3-140.1 1477 1204 61.41% 29.92% 8.67%+1.05 +21.8 29
1999-11-06 Dainava Alytus W 4-026.5 1775 977 83.70% 15.60% 0.69%+2.83 +2.8 36
1999-11-06 @ Zalgiris L 0-426.5 977 1775 0.69% 15.60% 83.70%-2.83 -2.8 6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1999-07-06 2.32% Nevezis 1093 1 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 1640 0
2 1999-08-28 4.00% Ardena Vilnius 1018 3 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1449 1
3 1999-07-28 8.00% Zalgiris Kaunas 1571 4 @ Kareda Siauliai 1860 2
4 1999-10-02 9.16% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1434 1 Kareda Siauliai 1697 0
5 1999-08-01 10.35% @ Ekranas 1526 1 Kareda Siauliai 1765 0
6 1999-10-13 13.07% @ Atlantas 1460 3 Kareda Siauliai 1653 2
7 1999-11-06 15.23% Atlantas 1513 2 @ Ekranas 1677 1
8 1999-08-21 17.70% Dainava Alytus 984 2 @ Ardena Vilnius 1118 0
9 1999-10-16 25.79% Ekranas 1543 3 @ Kareda Siauliai 1601 0
10 1999-10-13 29.33% @ Zalgiris Kaunas 1775 1 Zalgiris 1805 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-10-16 123.92 Ekranas 3 1543 25.79% @ Kareda Siauliai 0 1601 41.36% 32.85%
2 1999-08-28 117.12 Ardena Vilnius 3 1018 4.00% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1449 70.00% 26.00%
3 1999-08-21 100.15 Dainava Alytus 2 984 17.70% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1118 50.07% 32.22%
4 1999-07-28 95.42 Zalgiris Kaunas 4 1571 8.00% @ Kareda Siauliai 2 1860 62.42% 29.58%
5 1999-07-06 74.51 Nevezis 1 1093 2.32% @ Zalgiris Kaunas 0 1640 75.00% 22.68%
6 1999-07-28 66.13 Atlantas 4 1370 56.29% @ Nevezis 0 1167 12.45% 31.26%
7 1999-10-02 63.64 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1434 9.16% Kareda Siauliai 0 1697 60.69% 30.15%
8 1999-08-01 61.98 @ Ekranas 1 1526 10.35% Kareda Siauliai 0 1765 59.03% 30.62%
9 1999-08-01 57.93 @ Nevezis 2 1107 43.36% Dainava Alytus 0 1033 23.88% 32.76%
10 1999-11-06 52.67 Atlantas 2 1513 15.23% @ Ekranas 1 1677 52.92% 31.85%
11 1999-10-13 52.28 @ Atlantas 3 1460 13.07% Kareda Siauliai 2 1653 55.52% 31.41%
12 1999-08-08 51.37 @ Zalgiris 5 1774 63.17% Atlantas 0 1473 7.52% 29.31%
13 1999-07-09 50.92 Atlantas 2 1325 47.50% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1216 20.03% 32.48%
14 1999-09-25 48.45 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1347 48.90% @ Nevezis 0 1225 18.75% 32.35%
15 1999-10-02 45.82 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 2 1734 50.38% Ekranas 0 1597 17.44% 32.19%
16 1999-09-18 44.69 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1302 51.00% Banga Gargzdai 0 1159 16.88% 32.11%
17 1999-08-01 43.94 Zalgiris Kaunas 4 1666 55.74% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1471 12.89% 31.37%
18 1999-10-13 42.21 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 1 1775 29.33% Zalgiris 0 1805 37.71% 32.96%
19 1999-10-03 39.72 Ardena Vilnius 3 1157 50.35% @ Dainava Alytus 1 1020 17.46% 32.19%
20 1999-10-02 38.75 @ Inkaras Kaunas 4 1396 64.04% Dainava Alytus 0 1079 6.99% 28.97%
21 1999-08-07 37.79 Nevezis 1 1165 34.86% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1156 32.14% 32.99%
22 1999-08-01 37.38 @ Atlantas 5 1436 66.71% Dainava Alytus 0 1071 5.51% 27.78%
23 1999-07-10 35.85 Kareda Siauliai 2 1823 34.55% @ Zalgiris 1 1815 32.45% 33.00%
24 1999-09-19 30.23 Zalgiris 1 1788 43.92% @ Kareda Siauliai 0 1710 23.35% 32.73%
25 1999-10-02 30.16 @ Banga Gargzdai 2 1103 41.91% Dainava Alytus 1 1041 25.26% 32.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-07-28 77.2 Zalgiris Kaunas 4 1571 8.00% @ Kareda Siauliai 2 1860 62.42% 29.58%
2 1999-10-03 76.2 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 2 1792 52.54% Kareda Siauliai 2 1633 15.55% 31.91%
3 1999-10-03 75.1 @ Atlantas 2 1449 6.32% Zalgiris Kaunas 2 1786 65.19% 28.48%
4 1999-10-13 74.2 @ Atlantas 3 1460 13.07% Kareda Siauliai 2 1653 55.52% 31.41%
5 1999-11-06 70.7 Atlantas 2 1513 15.23% @ Ekranas 1 1677 52.92% 31.85%
6 1999-10-02 69.8 @ Atlantas 1 1409 4.27% Zalgiris 1 1827 69.37% 26.37%
7 1999-08-01 69.2 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1456 6.57% Zalgiris 1 1785 64.76% 28.67%
8 1999-07-10 68.6 Kareda Siauliai 2 1823 34.55% @ Zalgiris 1 1815 32.45% 33.00%
9 1999-08-01 68.1 @ Ekranas 1 1526 10.35% Kareda Siauliai 0 1765 59.03% 30.62%
10 1999-08-06 66.2 @ Kareda Siauliai 1 1703 61.58% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1427 8.55% 29.87%
11 1999-09-25 65.6 @ Zalgiris 0 1834 47.26% Zalgiris Kaunas 0 1727 20.24% 32.50%
12 1999-11-03 65.6 @ Ekranas 0 1667 15.80% Zalgiris Kaunas 0 1823 52.24% 31.95%
13 1999-10-03 65.4 @ Ekranas 0 1551 8.97% Zalgiris 0 1817 60.97% 30.06%
14 1999-10-02 65.0 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1434 9.16% Kareda Siauliai 0 1697 60.69% 30.15%
15 1999-10-13 64.2 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 1 1775 29.33% Zalgiris 0 1805 37.71% 32.96%
16 1999-10-03 62.7 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1485 23.14% Ekranas 1 1565 44.15% 32.72%
17 1999-09-22 61.0 @ Zalgiris 2 1818 57.78% Ekranas 1 1597 11.29% 30.94%
18 1999-08-22 60.6 @ Zalgiris 0 1826 77.91% Nevezis 0 1203 1.62% 20.47%
19 1999-09-19 59.6 Zalgiris 1 1788 43.92% @ Kareda Siauliai 0 1710 23.35% 32.73%
20 1999-10-16 58.1 @ Zalgiris 2 1762 61.38% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1490 8.69% 29.93%
21 1999-07-16 57.8 @ Atlantas 2 1376 53.56% Banga Gargzdai 2 1206 14.69% 31.76%
22 1999-08-06 57.3 @ Dainava Alytus 2 976 11.17% Banga Gargzdai 2 1199 57.94% 30.90%
23 1999-08-22 57.3 @ Ekranas 0 1594 52.09% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1440 15.94% 31.97%
24 1999-10-16 56.7 Ekranas 3 1543 25.79% @ Kareda Siauliai 0 1601 41.36% 32.85%
25 1999-08-28 56.4 @ Dainava Alytus 0 1084 1.01% Zalgiris 0 1805 81.30% 17.69%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-11-06 26.5 @ Zalgiris 4 1775 83.70% Dainava Alytus 0 977 0.69% 15.60%
2 1999-09-25 28.8 Ekranas 4 1581 72.41% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1095 3.11% 24.48%
3 1999-08-01 29.5 @ Atlantas 5 1436 66.71% Dainava Alytus 0 1071 5.51% 27.78%
4 1999-09-11 29.7 Kareda Siauliai 4 1701 76.86% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1106 1.85% 21.29%
5 1999-10-03 29.9 Kareda Siauliai 4 1639 73.52% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1128 2.75% 23.73%
6 1999-10-02 30.1 @ Inkaras Kaunas 4 1396 64.04% Dainava Alytus 0 1079 6.99% 28.97%
7 1999-07-28 31.7 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1439 65.96% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1088 5.90% 28.13%
8 1999-11-06 32.5 @ Zalgiris Kaunas 6 1814 80.55% Banga Gargzdai 0 1116 1.13% 18.32%
9 1999-07-06 32.7 @ Kareda Siauliai 3 1819 80.84% Dainava Alytus 0 1113 1.09% 18.07%
10 1999-07-28 32.7 Atlantas 4 1370 56.29% @ Nevezis 0 1167 12.45% 31.26%
11 1999-09-11 32.8 Zalgiris 3 1783 78.82% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1135 1.44% 19.74%
12 1999-09-11 33.0 Ekranas 2 1604 70.08% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1171 3.97% 25.95%
13 1999-10-02 33.0 @ Zalgiris 5 1811 79.87% Banga Gargzdai 0 1133 1.25% 18.89%
14 1999-08-20 33.3 @ Kareda Siauliai 3 1689 72.99% Banga Gargzdai 0 1190 2.91% 24.09%
15 1999-07-10 33.5 Zalgiris Kaunas 1 1566 71.14% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1109 3.56% 25.30%
16 1999-08-29 33.6 Zalgiris Kaunas 3 1730 75.16% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1179 2.28% 22.56%
17 1999-09-25 33.8 Kareda Siauliai 2 1690 74.04% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1166 2.59% 23.37%
18 1999-07-16 34.8 @ Ekranas 4 1510 68.82% Dainava Alytus 1 1104 4.50% 26.68%
19 1999-08-01 35.0 @ Ekranas 1 1588 69.76% Ardena Vilnius 0 1162 4.10% 26.14%
20 1999-09-18 36.0 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1302 51.00% Banga Gargzdai 0 1159 16.88% 32.11%
21 1999-07-16 36.5 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1423 59.17% Nevezis 0 1183 10.24% 30.59%
22 1999-09-22 36.7 Kareda Siauliai 2 1679 70.57% @ Nevezis 0 1235 3.77% 25.65%
23 1999-09-25 37.0 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1347 48.90% @ Nevezis 0 1225 18.75% 32.35%
24 1999-07-09 37.3 Atlantas 2 1325 47.50% @ Ardena Vilnius 0 1216 20.03% 32.48%
25 1999-10-16 37.3 Atlantas 2 1513 74.38% @ Dainava Alytus 1 981 2.49% 23.13%