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2002 A Lyga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

FBK Kaunas

78 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Suduva

12.15 points above expected

41 points · 28.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Nevezis

12.06 points below expected

12 points · 24.06 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FBK Kaunas 32 24 6 2 78 85 20 +65 74.16 +3.84
2 Atlantas 32 20 7 5 67 58 23 +35 61.94 +5.06
3 Ekranas 32 16 7 9 55 43 25 +18 53.17 +1.83
4 Zalgiris 32 12 11 9 47 46 37 +9 57.71 -10.71
5 Inkaras Kaunas 32 13 7 12 46 34 29 +5 43.10 +2.90
6 Suduva 32 11 8 13 41 44 50 -6 28.85 +12.15
7 Sakalas Siauliai 32 8 10 14 34 30 56 -26 30.36 +3.64
8 Gelezinis Vilkas 32 4 6 22 18 26 75 -49 26.04 -8.04
9 Nevezis 32 2 6 24 12 19 70 -51 24.06 -12.06

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Suduva 41 28.85 +12.15
2 Atlantas 67 61.94 +5.06
3 FBK Kaunas 78 74.16 +3.84
4 Sakalas Siauliai 34 30.36 +3.64
5 Inkaras Kaunas 46 43.10 +2.90

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Nevezis 12 24.06 -12.06
2 Zalgiris 47 57.71 -10.71
3 Gelezinis Vilkas 18 26.04 -8.04
4 Ekranas 55 53.17 +1.83
5 Inkaras Kaunas 46 43.10 +2.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inkaras Kaunas 4 Jun 19 – Jul 27 1 in 88
2 Atlantas 6 May 21 – Jun 11 1 in 31
3 Zalgiris 5 Apr 6 – May 4 1 in 17
4 Suduva 2 Aug 3 – Aug 8 1 in 17
5 Gelezinis Vilkas 1 Apr 6 – Apr 6 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gelezinis Vilkas 10 May 11 – Jul 6 1 in 474
2 Nevezis 8 Apr 6 – May 21 1 in 361
3 Zalgiris 4 Jun 11 – Jul 23 1 in 294
4 Ekranas 3 Apr 6 – Apr 25 1 in 58
5 Atlantas 2 Apr 30 – May 4 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ekranas 9 Aug 10 – Oct 26 1 in 36
2 Sakalas Siauliai 6 Jul 5 – Aug 24 1 in 28
3 Atlantas 11 Aug 3 – Nov 9 1 in 24
4 Suduva 3 Apr 25 – May 4 1 in 15
5 Inkaras Kaunas 6 Jun 11 – Jul 27 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zalgiris 11 Jun 4 – Sep 14 1 in 3,602
2 Gelezinis Vilkas 14 Apr 25 – Jul 6 1 in 70
3 Nevezis 13 Apr 6 – Jun 8 1 in 38
4 Inkaras Kaunas 7 Sep 14 – Oct 27 1 in 20
5 Sakalas Siauliai 8 Aug 10 – Oct 5 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FBK Kaunas 1595 78 +25 11 11.3 -0.3
Atlantas 1482 67 +23 9 8.8 +0.2
Ekranas 1365 55 -14 8 8.5 -0.5
Zalgiris 1305 47 -11 6 6.9 -0.9
Inkaras Kaunas 1264 46 -8 8 8.9 -0.9
Suduva 1224 41 +25 7 5.2 +1.8
Sakalas Siauliai 1022 34 -2 7 4.6 +2.4
Gelezinis Vilkas 899 18 -24 3 3.3 -0.3
Nevezis 911 12 -34 1 3.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL EKR FK GV IK NEV SS SUD ZAL
Atlantas —
2-1-1
6.99
0-3-1
3.49
3-0-1
9.18
3-0-1
8.04
3-1-0
9.51
4-0-0
9.05
3-1-0
9.48
2-1-1
6.10
Ekranas
1-1-2
4.02
 —
2-1-1
2.32
3-0-1
8.96
1-1-2
6.97
4-0-0
9.50
1-2-1
8.49
3-0-1
8.87
1-2-1
4.37
FBK Kaunas
1-3-0
7.54
1-1-2
8.78
 —
4-0-0
10.27
4-0-0
9.30
4-0-0
10.17
4-0-0
9.98
3-1-0
10.25
3-1-0
7.85
Gelezinis Vilkas
1-0-3
1.99
1-0-3
2.16
0-0-4
1.07
 —
0-0-4
2.92
2-1-1
5.78
0-2-2
4.59
0-1-3
5.14
0-2-2
1.91
Inkaras Kaunas
1-0-3
3.01
2-1-1
4.05
0-0-4
1.85
4-0-0
8.16
 —
4-0-0
8.28
0-3-1
7.25
1-2-1
7.71
1-1-2
3.21
Nevezis
0-1-3
1.70
0-0-4
1.68
0-0-4
1.15
1-1-2
5.23
0-0-4
2.81
 —
0-2-2
3.62
1-0-3
5.22
0-2-2
1.79
Sakalas Siauliai
0-0-4
2.07
1-2-1
2.59
0-0-4
1.28
2-2-0
6.43
1-3-0
3.77
2-2-0
7.41
 —
1-1-2
5.73
1-0-3
2.38
Suduva
0-1-3
1.70
1-0-3
2.24
0-1-3
1.07
3-1-0
5.89
1-2-1
3.32
3-0-1
5.82
2-1-1
5.28
 —
1-2-1
3.15
Zalgiris
1-1-2
4.92
1-2-1
6.64
0-1-3
3.20
2-2-0
9.24
2-1-1
7.84
2-2-0
9.38
3-0-1
8.73
1-2-1
7.93
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +10.0
Allowed 0.89 -9.6
Differential 0.98 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.42%10.76%6.25%4.17%0.69%1.39%33.68%
110.76%10.42%2.78%4.86%3.82%0.69%33.33%
26.25%2.78%2.78%1.04%0.35%0.69%13.89%
34.17%4.86%1.04%—0.35%0.35%10.76%
40.69%3.82%0.35%0.35%——5.21%
5+1.39%0.69%0.69%0.35%——3.12%
Total33.68%33.33%13.89%10.76%5.21%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.23
CV 1.11 1.11 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%————25.00%
112.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
26.25%9.38%————15.62%
36.25%9.38%————15.62%
43.12%12.50%————15.62%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total43.75%46.88%3.12%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.72 +1.09
SD 1.53 0.81 1.59
CV 0.85 1.13 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%21.88%————37.50%
112.50%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—21.88%
29.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
33.12%12.50%3.12%———18.75%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total40.62%46.88%9.38%—3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 0.78 +0.56
SD 1.33 0.87 1.48
CV 0.99 1.11 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%————9.38%
115.62%9.38%————25.00%
29.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
312.50%3.12%3.12%———18.75%
4—12.50%————12.50%
5+9.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
Total50.00%37.50%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.66 0.62 +2.03
SD 2.09 0.71 2.21
CV 0.79 1.13 —
Max 10 2 +10
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%9.38%6.25%6.25%3.12%40.62%
19.38%12.50%—12.50%6.25%—40.62%
2—3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%15.62%
3————3.12%—3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%28.12%12.50%21.88%18.75%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 2.34 -1.53
SD 0.82 1.77 1.87
CV 1.01 0.76 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%9.38%9.38%——37.50%
121.88%12.50%9.38%———43.75%
29.38%—————9.38%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total46.88%25.00%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.91 +0.16
SD 1.52 1.03 2.13
CV 1.43 1.13 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%18.75%18.75%6.25%—3.12%59.38%
13.12%6.25%6.25%9.38%6.25%—31.25%
2—————3.12%3.12%
3—————3.12%3.12%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%25.00%25.00%18.75%6.25%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.59 2.19 -1.59
SD 0.95 1.99 1.92
CV 1.59 0.91 —
Max 4 10 +1
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%3.12%3.12%9.38%—3.12%31.25%
19.38%18.75%6.25%6.25%9.38%3.12%53.12%
26.25%—————6.25%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%25.00%12.50%15.62%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.75 -0.81
SD 0.88 1.83 2.16
CV 0.94 1.05 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
16.25%15.62%—3.12%9.38%3.12%37.50%
29.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
3—3.12%————3.12%
43.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total25.00%37.50%15.62%6.25%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.56 -0.19
SD 1.58 1.50 2.40
CV 1.15 0.96 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
16.25%9.38%—6.25%——21.88%
26.25%3.12%9.38%6.25%——25.00%
39.38%9.38%————18.75%
4———————
5+———3.12%——3.12%
Total37.50%28.12%15.62%18.75%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.16 +0.28
SD 1.29 1.14 1.61
CV 0.90 0.99 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FBK Kaunas 1595 78 74.16 +3.84 75.0% 59 62 70 74 78 83 91
Atlantas 1482 67 61.94 +5.06 79.0% 47 52 58 62 66 73 77
Ekranas 1365 55 53.17 +1.83 59.0% 39 41 48 53 59 62 71
Zalgiris 1305 47 57.71 -10.71 7.0% 38 46 53 58 62 69 71
Inkaras Kaunas 1264 46 43.10 +2.90 71.0% 29 33 39 42 47 54 60
Suduva 1224 41 28.85 +12.15 98.0% 10 18 25 29 33 39 44
Sakalas Siauliai 1022 34 30.36 +3.64 79.0% 18 22 26 31 34 39 45
Nevezis 911 12 24.06 -12.06 1.0% 11 14 20 24 27 34 36
Gelezinis Vilkas 899 18 26.04 -8.04 10.0% 11 15 22 26 30 36 40

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
Slight Edge
40.97%23.61%35.42%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.
207 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
88%
FBK Kaunas, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.34/gm
Runaway
00.330.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.03 * Some Luck: 5.03 to 7.54 * Lucky: 7.54 to 10.06 * Wild Swing: 10.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.55 * Close: 0.55 to 0.82 * Off: 0.82 to 1.1 * Way Off: 1.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.73 points
Lucky
06.2916
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.44
Pinpoint
00.691.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
98.00%
Suduva
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Nevezis
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 244.11
2.83
Strong Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
88%
Clear Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.56
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Some Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Shaky Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1210.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
FBK Kaunas88.00%12.00%———————
Atlantas9.00%54.00%23.00%14.00%—————
Ekranas1.00%8.00%33.00%44.00%14.00%————
Zalgiris2.00%26.00%41.00%24.00%7.00%————
Inkaras Kaunas——3.00%17.00%67.00%11.00%2.00%——
Suduva————7.00%28.00%30.00%18.00%17.00%
Sakalas Siauliai———1.00%2.00%35.00%28.00%25.00%9.00%
Gelezinis Vilkas————2.00%17.00%22.00%32.00%27.00%
Nevezis————1.00%9.00%18.00%25.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Atlantas 100% — —
Ekranas 100% — —
FBK Kaunas 100% — —
Inkaras Kaunas 100% — —
Zalgiris 100% — —
Sakalas Siauliai 66.00% 25.00% 9.00%
Suduva 65.00% 18.00% 17.00%
Gelezinis Vilkas 41.00% 32.00% 27.00%
Nevezis 28.00% 25.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-04-06 Atlantas L 1-238.9 1054 1354 10.41% 22.24% 67.35%-1.35 -6.1 0
2002-04-06 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-138.9 1354 1054 67.35% 22.24% 10.41%+1.35 +6.1 3
2002-04-06 FBK Kaunas L 1-528.4 951 1494 3.18% 16.90% 79.93%-2.52 -5.4 0
2002-04-06 @ Suduva W 5-128.4 1494 951 79.93% 16.90% 3.18%+2.52 +5.4 3
2002-04-06 Gelezinis Vilkas L 0-150.1 1330 1132 62.54% 23.31% 14.16%+1.05 -30.2 0
2002-04-06 @ Ekranas W 1-050.1 1132 1330 14.16% 23.31% 62.54%-1.05 +30.2 3
2002-04-06 Nevezis W 1-036.0 1380 1185 62.26% 23.36% 14.38%+1.03 +8.8 3
2002-04-06 @ Zalgiris L 0-136.0 1185 1380 14.38% 23.36% 62.26%-1.03 -8.8 0
2002-04-09 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-136.1 1499 1048 77.74% 18.15% 4.12%+2.27 +2.3 6
2002-04-09 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-236.1 1048 1499 4.12% 18.15% 77.74%-2.27 -2.3 0
2002-04-09 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-148.1 1300 1184 54.72% 24.35% 20.93%+0.65 -26.6 0
2002-04-09 @ Ekranas W 1-048.1 1184 1300 20.93% 24.35% 54.72%-0.65 +26.6 3
2002-04-09 Nevezis W 1-036.2 1360 1176 61.30% 23.52% 15.18%+0.98 +9.2 6
2002-04-09 @ Atlantas L 0-136.2 1176 1360 15.18% 23.52% 61.30%-0.98 -9.2 0
2002-04-09 Zalgiris L 1-338.6 1162 1389 14.86% 23.46% 61.68%-1.00 -14.7 3
2002-04-09 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-138.6 1389 1162 61.68% 23.46% 14.86%+1.00 +14.7 6
2002-04-13 Atlantas L 0-136.1 1147 1370 15.21% 23.53% 61.27%-0.98 -9.2 3
2002-04-13 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-036.1 1370 1147 61.27% 23.53% 15.21%+0.98 +9.2 9
2002-04-13 FBK Kaunas L 0-232.1 1167 1502 8.82% 21.59% 69.60%-1.52 -10.3 0
2002-04-13 @ Nevezis W 2-032.1 1502 1167 69.60% 21.59% 8.82%+1.52 +10.3 9
2002-04-13 Suduva W 2-035.6 1046 946 52.92% 24.51% 22.58%+0.57 +24.5 3
2002-04-13 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 0-235.6 946 1046 22.58% 24.51% 52.92%-0.57 -24.5 0
2002-04-13 Zalgiris L 0-234.9 1211 1404 17.46% 23.92% 58.62%-0.84 -19.7 3
2002-04-13 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-034.9 1404 1211 58.62% 23.92% 17.46%+0.84 +19.7 9
2002-04-20 Gelezinis Vilkas L 1-249.3 1157 1138 42.82% 24.99% 32.19%+0.18 -20.3 0
2002-04-20 @ Nevezis W 2-149.3 1138 1157 32.19% 24.99% 42.82%-0.18 +20.3 6
2002-04-25 Ekranas W 1-038.4 1424 1273 58.17% 23.97% 17.85%+0.82 +10.6 12
2002-04-25 @ Zalgiris L 0-138.4 1273 1424 17.85% 23.97% 58.17%-0.82 -10.6 0
2002-04-25 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-029.1 1512 1158 72.96% 20.38% 6.65%+1.80 +11.1 12
2002-04-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-329.1 1158 1512 6.65% 20.38% 72.96%-1.80 -11.1 6
2002-04-25 Inkaras Kaunas W 3-031.7 1379 1191 61.65% 23.46% 14.89%+1.00 +24.8 12
2002-04-25 @ Atlantas L 0-331.7 1191 1379 14.89% 23.46% 61.65%-1.00 -24.8 3
2002-04-25 Nevezis W 2-046.7 921 1137 15.72% 23.62% 60.66%-0.94 +55.3 3
2002-04-25 @ Suduva L 0-246.7 1137 921 60.66% 23.62% 15.72%+0.94 -55.3 0
2002-04-30 Atlantas W 3-151.2 1263 1404 22.34% 24.49% 53.17%-0.59 +42.4 3
2002-04-30 @ Ekranas L 1-351.2 1404 1263 53.17% 24.49% 22.34%+0.59 -42.4 12
2002-04-30 FBK Kaunas L 0-134.5 1166 1523 7.90% 21.13% 70.97%-1.63 -4.9 3
2002-04-30 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 1-034.5 1523 1166 70.97% 21.13% 7.90%+1.63 +4.9 15
2002-04-30 Suduva D 1-153.5 1147 977 60.11% 23.71% 16.18%+0.92 -5.0 7
2002-04-30 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-153.5 977 1147 16.18% 23.71% 60.11%-0.92 +5.0 4
2002-05-04 Ekranas W 1-039.1 1528 1305 64.49% 22.92% 12.59%+1.17 +7.7 18
2002-05-04 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-139.1 1305 1528 12.59% 22.92% 64.49%-1.17 -7.7 3
2002-05-04 Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.0 1142 1070 49.69% 24.72% 25.59%+0.44 -2.9 8
2002-05-04 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 0-049.0 1070 1142 25.59% 24.72% 49.69%-0.44 +2.9 4
2002-05-04 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-153.4 982 1161 18.64% 24.08% 57.28%-0.77 +4.3 5
2002-05-04 @ Suduva D 1-153.4 1161 982 57.28% 24.08% 18.64%+0.77 -4.3 4
2002-05-04 Zalgiris L 1-346.5 1361 1434 30.17% 24.93% 44.90%-0.26 -26.9 12
2002-05-04 @ Atlantas W 3-146.5 1434 1361 44.90% 24.93% 30.17%+0.26 +26.9 15
2002-05-07 Zalgiris D 1-155.0 1139 1461 9.38% 21.84% 68.78%-1.46 +7.0 9
2002-05-07 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-155.0 1461 1139 68.78% 21.84% 9.38%+1.46 -7.0 16
2002-05-11 FBK Kaunas D 2-267.7 1454 1536 29.07% 24.89% 46.03%-0.30 +1.3 17
2002-05-11 @ Zalgiris D 2-267.7 1536 1454 46.03% 24.89% 29.07%+0.30 -1.3 19
2002-05-11 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-146.8 1157 1073 51.08% 24.64% 24.28%+0.50 -25.0 4
2002-05-11 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 1-046.8 1073 1157 24.28% 24.64% 51.08%-0.50 +25.0 7
2002-05-11 Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-030.4 1334 1146 61.64% 23.46% 14.90%+1.00 +32.4 15
2002-05-11 @ Atlantas L 0-430.4 1146 1334 14.90% 23.46% 61.64%-1.00 -32.4 9
2002-05-11 Suduva W 2-030.4 1297 986 70.57% 21.27% 8.16%+1.59 +9.5 6
2002-05-11 @ Ekranas L 0-230.4 986 1297 8.16% 21.27% 70.57%-1.59 -9.5 5
2002-05-15 Atlantas W 1-042.5 1534 1367 59.83% 23.75% 16.42%+0.90 +9.9 22
2002-05-15 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-142.5 1367 1534 16.42% 23.75% 59.83%-0.90 -9.9 15
2002-05-15 Ekranas D 1-153.7 1098 1307 16.21% 23.71% 60.07%-0.91 +5.0 8
2002-05-15 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.7 1307 1098 60.07% 23.71% 16.21%+0.91 -5.0 7
2002-05-15 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-141.5 1081 1132 33.11% 25.01% 41.88%-0.15 -17.7 0
2002-05-15 @ Nevezis W 1-041.5 1132 1081 41.88% 25.01% 33.11%+0.15 +17.7 7
2002-05-15 Zalgiris D 1-155.3 976 1455 4.35% 18.41% 77.24%-2.21 +8.7 6
2002-05-15 @ Suduva D 1-155.3 1455 976 77.24% 18.41% 4.35%+2.21 -8.7 18
2002-05-18 Nevezis W 5-340.0 1447 1064 74.52% 19.73% 5.76%+1.94 +4.8 21
2002-05-18 @ Zalgiris L 3-540.0 1064 1447 5.76% 19.73% 74.52%-1.94 -4.8 0
2002-05-21 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-135.3 1451 1103 72.69% 20.49% 6.82%+1.77 +6.8 24
2002-05-21 @ Zalgiris L 1-335.3 1103 1451 6.82% 20.49% 72.69%-1.77 -6.8 8
2002-05-21 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-143.0 1150 1114 45.04% 24.93% 30.03%+0.26 +26.8 10
2002-05-21 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-343.0 1114 1150 30.03% 24.93% 45.04%-0.26 -26.8 9
2002-05-21 Nevezis W 4-134.3 1302 1059 66.04% 22.57% 11.39%+1.27 +16.2 10
2002-05-21 @ Ekranas L 1-434.3 1059 1302 11.39% 22.57% 66.04%-1.27 -16.2 0
2002-05-21 Suduva W 3-134.4 1357 985 73.93% 19.98% 6.08%+1.88 +6.0 18
2002-05-21 @ Atlantas L 1-334.4 985 1357 6.08% 19.98% 73.93%-1.88 -6.0 6
2002-05-25 Ekranas L 0-233.1 1087 1318 14.59% 23.40% 62.01%-1.02 -16.7 9
2002-05-25 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 2-033.1 1318 1087 62.01% 23.40% 14.59%+1.02 +16.7 13
2002-05-25 Sakalas Siauliai W 4-134.0 1363 1096 67.69% 22.15% 10.16%+1.38 +14.5 21
2002-05-25 @ Atlantas L 1-434.0 1096 1363 10.16% 22.15% 67.69%-1.38 -14.5 8
2002-05-25 Suduva W 5-024.2 1544 979 82.21% 15.44% 2.35%+2.82 +5.7 25
2002-05-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-524.2 979 1544 2.35% 15.44% 82.21%-2.82 -5.7 6
2002-05-25 Zalgiris D 0-050.9 1043 1458 5.93% 19.86% 74.21%-1.91 +9.1 1
2002-05-25 @ Nevezis D 0-050.9 1458 1043 74.21% 19.86% 5.93%+1.91 -9.1 25
2002-05-28 Atlantas L 1-433.5 1052 1377 9.20% 21.76% 69.04%-1.48 -13.1 1
2002-05-28 @ Nevezis W 4-133.5 1377 1052 69.04% 21.76% 9.20%+1.48 +13.1 24
2002-05-28 Ekranas W 1-048.3 1176 1335 20.57% 24.31% 55.12%-0.67 +26.8 13
2002-05-28 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-148.3 1335 1176 55.12% 24.31% 20.57%+0.67 -26.8 13
2002-05-28 FBK Kaunas L 0-626.7 1082 1550 4.58% 18.66% 76.76%-2.16 -14.3 8
2002-05-28 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 6-026.7 1550 1082 76.76% 18.66% 4.58%+2.16 +14.3 28
2002-05-28 Gelezinis Vilkas W 2-029.7 1449 1071 74.29% 19.83% 5.88%+1.92 +6.7 28
2002-05-28 @ Zalgiris L 0-229.7 1071 1449 5.88% 19.83% 74.29%-1.92 -6.7 9
2002-06-01 Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.1 973 1067 27.55% 24.83% 47.62%-0.36 +2.1 7
2002-06-01 @ Suduva D 1-153.1 1067 973 47.62% 24.83% 27.55%+0.36 -2.1 9
2002-06-01 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-140.2 1456 1203 66.72% 22.40% 10.87%+1.31 +6.3 31
2002-06-01 @ Zalgiris L 1-240.2 1203 1456 10.87% 22.40% 66.72%-1.31 -6.3 13
2002-06-01 Nevezis W 10-026.4 1564 1039 80.76% 16.38% 2.86%+2.63 +13.8 31
2002-06-01 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-1026.4 1039 1564 2.86% 16.38% 80.76%-2.63 -13.8 1
2002-06-04 Atlantas L 0-234.7 1197 1391 17.43% 23.91% 58.66%-0.84 -19.6 13
2002-06-04 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-034.7 1391 1197 58.66% 23.91% 17.43%+0.84 +19.7 27
2002-06-04 Suduva L 0-243.0 1025 976 46.84% 24.86% 28.29%+0.33 -43.8 1
2002-06-04 @ Nevezis W 2-043.0 976 1025 28.29% 24.86% 46.84%-0.33 +43.8 10
2002-06-04 Zalgiris D 0-052.1 1308 1462 21.01% 24.36% 54.63%-0.65 +4.2 14
2002-06-04 @ Ekranas D 0-052.1 1462 1308 54.63% 24.36% 21.01%+0.65 -4.2 32
2002-06-08 Ekranas W 2-145.2 1410 1312 52.70% 24.52% 22.78%+0.56 +12.4 30
2002-06-08 @ Atlantas L 1-245.2 1312 1410 22.78% 24.52% 52.70%-0.56 -12.4 14
2002-06-08 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-237.5 981 1065 28.74% 24.88% 46.38%-0.31 -29.9 1
2002-06-08 @ Nevezis W 2-037.5 1065 981 46.38% 24.88% 28.74%+0.31 +29.9 12
2002-06-08 Inkaras Kaunas W 3-029.6 1578 1177 75.40% 19.32% 5.28%+2.02 +8.7 34
2002-06-08 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-329.6 1177 1578 5.28% 19.32% 75.40%-2.02 -8.7 13
2002-06-11 Atlantas L 0-150.8 1458 1423 45.06% 24.93% 30.01%+0.26 -22.5 32
2002-06-11 @ Zalgiris W 1-050.8 1423 1458 30.01% 24.93% 45.06%-0.26 +22.5 33
2002-06-11 FBK Kaunas W 1-056.6 1300 1587 11.12% 22.49% 66.39%-1.29 +32.0 17
2002-06-11 @ Ekranas L 0-156.6 1587 1300 66.39% 22.49% 11.12%+1.29 -32.0 34
2002-06-11 Suduva W 2-034.1 1168 1019 58.09% 23.98% 17.93%+0.81 +20.1 16
2002-06-11 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-234.1 1019 1168 17.93% 23.98% 58.09%-0.81 -20.1 10
2002-06-12 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-143.1 1095 1064 44.50% 24.95% 30.55%+0.24 +27.1 15
2002-06-12 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 1-343.1 1064 1095 30.55% 24.95% 44.50%-0.24 -27.1 9
2002-06-15 Ekranas W 1-051.4 999 1332 8.89% 21.62% 69.49%-1.51 +33.4 13
2002-06-15 @ Suduva L 0-151.4 1332 999 69.49% 21.62% 8.89%+1.51 -33.4 17
2002-06-15 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-049.0 1122 1189 31.03% 24.96% 44.01%-0.23 +1.5 16
2002-06-15 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.0 1189 1122 44.01% 24.96% 31.03%+0.23 -1.5 17
2002-06-15 Nevezis L 3-458.8 1037 951 51.28% 24.63% 24.09%+0.51 -21.9 9
2002-06-15 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-358.8 951 1037 24.09% 24.63% 51.28%-0.51 +21.9 4
2002-06-15 Zalgiris W 2-044.6 1555 1436 55.03% 24.32% 20.65%+0.67 +22.8 37
2002-06-15 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-244.6 1436 1555 20.65% 24.32% 55.03%-0.67 -22.8 32
2002-06-19 FBK Kaunas D 0-059.8 1445 1577 23.21% 24.56% 52.24%-0.55 +3.5 34
2002-06-19 @ Atlantas D 0-059.8 1577 1445 52.24% 24.56% 23.21%+0.55 -3.5 38
2002-06-19 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-138.5 1299 1124 60.48% 23.65% 15.87%+0.94 +15.6 20
2002-06-19 @ Ekranas L 1-338.5 1124 1299 15.87% 23.65% 60.48%-0.94 -15.6 16
2002-06-19 Nevezis W 3-030.4 1187 973 63.81% 23.06% 13.13%+1.12 +22.0 20
2002-06-19 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-330.4 973 1187 13.13% 23.06% 63.81%-1.12 -22.0 4
2002-06-23 Atlantas L 1-432.1 1033 1449 5.92% 19.85% 74.23%-1.91 -8.3 13
2002-06-23 @ Suduva W 4-132.1 1449 1033 74.23% 19.85% 5.92%+1.91 +8.3 37
2002-06-23 Ekranas L 0-230.1 951 1314 7.66% 21.00% 71.34%-1.66 -8.9 4
2002-06-23 @ Nevezis W 2-030.1 1314 951 71.34% 21.00% 7.66%+1.66 +8.9 23
2002-06-23 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-136.4 1015 1209 17.39% 23.90% 58.71%-0.84 -10.4 9
2002-06-23 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-036.4 1209 1015 58.71% 23.90% 17.39%+0.84 +10.4 23
2002-06-27 Atlantas L 0-329.1 1108 1457 8.22% 21.30% 70.48%-1.59 -13.9 16
2002-06-27 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 3-029.1 1457 1108 70.48% 21.30% 8.22%+1.59 +13.9 40
2002-06-27 FBK Kaunas D 1-156.5 1024 1574 3.07% 16.73% 80.20%-2.56 +9.1 14
2002-06-27 @ Suduva D 1-156.5 1574 1024 80.20% 16.73% 3.07%+2.56 -9.1 39
2002-06-27 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-135.2 1323 1004 70.99% 21.12% 7.88%+1.63 +7.9 26
2002-06-27 @ Ekranas L 1-335.2 1004 1323 7.88% 21.12% 70.99%-1.63 -7.9 9
2002-07-01 Sakalas Siauliai W 4-131.8 1565 1094 78.56% 17.69% 3.75%+2.36 +5.0 42
2002-07-01 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-431.8 1094 1565 3.75% 17.69% 78.56%-2.36 -5.0 16
2002-07-01 Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-040.4 1033 997 45.23% 24.92% 29.85%+0.27 +16.3 17
2002-07-01 @ Suduva L 0-140.4 997 1033 29.85% 24.92% 45.23%-0.27 -16.3 9
2002-07-01 Nevezis D 0-051.7 1471 942 80.88% 16.31% 2.81%+2.64 -10.3 41
2002-07-01 @ Atlantas D 0-051.7 942 1471 2.81% 16.31% 80.88%-2.64 +10.3 5
2002-07-05 Nevezis D 0-049.1 1089 952 56.86% 24.13% 19.01%+0.75 -4.7 17
2002-07-05 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.1 952 1089 19.01% 24.13% 56.86%-0.75 +4.7 6
2002-07-06 FBK Kaunas L 1-430.1 980 1570 2.52% 15.78% 81.71%-2.75 -3.2 9
2002-07-06 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-130.1 1570 980 81.71% 15.78% 2.52%+2.75 +3.2 45
2002-07-11 FBK Kaunas L 2-532.4 957 1573 2.21% 15.15% 82.64%-2.88 -2.4 6
2002-07-11 @ Nevezis W 5-232.4 1573 957 82.64% 15.15% 2.21%+2.88 +2.4 48
2002-07-20 Atlantas W 1-053.0 977 1460 4.25% 18.30% 77.45%-2.24 +36.3 12
2002-07-20 @ Gelezinis Vilkas L 0-153.0 1460 977 77.45% 18.30% 4.25%+2.24 -36.3 41
2002-07-20 Zalgiris W 2-047.4 1220 1413 17.47% 23.92% 58.62%-0.84 +53.6 26
2002-07-20 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-247.4 1413 1220 58.62% 23.92% 17.47%+0.84 -53.6 32
2002-07-23 Atlantas L 0-132.8 1050 1424 7.25% 20.76% 71.99%-1.71 -4.5 17
2002-07-23 @ Suduva W 1-032.8 1424 1050 71.99% 20.76% 7.25%+1.71 +4.5 44
2002-07-23 Zalgiris W 1-050.7 1085 1359 11.79% 22.70% 65.51%-1.23 +31.6 20
2002-07-23 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 0-150.7 1359 1085 65.51% 22.70% 11.79%+1.23 -31.6 32
2002-07-27 Ekranas D 0-050.3 1328 1331 39.75% 25.03% 35.21%+0.08 -0.5 33
2002-07-27 @ Zalgiris D 0-050.3 1331 1328 35.21% 25.03% 39.75%-0.08 +0.5 27
2002-07-27 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-150.7 1429 1273 58.69% 23.91% 17.40%+0.84 -28.5 44
2002-07-27 @ Atlantas W 1-050.7 1273 1429 17.40% 23.91% 58.69%-0.84 +28.5 29
2002-07-27 Nevezis W 2-143.3 1045 955 51.84% 24.59% 23.57%+0.53 +12.7 20
2002-07-27 @ Suduva L 1-243.3 955 1045 23.57% 24.59% 51.84%-0.53 -12.7 6
2002-07-28 Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-130.2 1576 1013 82.11% 15.51% 2.38%+2.80 +3.0 51
2002-07-28 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-430.2 1013 1576 2.38% 15.51% 82.11%-2.80 -3.0 12
2002-07-30 Suduva W 4-133.7 1332 1058 68.16% 22.02% 9.82%+1.41 +14.0 30
2002-07-30 @ Ekranas L 1-433.7 1058 1332 9.82% 22.02% 68.16%-1.41 -14.0 20
2002-08-03 Atlantas L 1-443.8 1346 1400 32.58% 25.00% 42.42%-0.17 -40.3 30
2002-08-03 @ Ekranas W 4-143.8 1400 1346 42.42% 25.00% 32.58%+0.17 +40.3 47
2002-08-03 Nevezis W 3-031.4 1116 942 60.42% 23.66% 15.92%+0.93 +26.3 23
2002-08-03 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 0-331.4 942 1116 15.92% 23.66% 60.42%-0.93 -26.3 6
2002-08-03 Suduva L 2-448.2 1010 1044 35.44% 25.04% 39.52%-0.07 -27.2 12
2002-08-03 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-248.2 1044 1010 39.52% 25.04% 35.44%+0.07 +27.2 23
2002-08-04 FBK Kaunas L 0-140.1 1302 1579 11.66% 22.66% 65.68%-1.24 -7.2 29
2002-08-04 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 1-040.1 1579 1302 65.68% 22.66% 11.66%+1.24 +7.2 54
2002-08-07 Zalgiris D 0-052.0 1440 1327 54.40% 24.38% 21.22%+0.64 -4.1 48
2002-08-07 @ Atlantas D 0-052.0 1327 1440 21.22% 24.38% 54.40%-0.64 +4.1 34
2002-08-08 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-047.1 1071 1294 15.13% 23.51% 61.36%-0.98 +56.0 26
2002-08-08 @ Suduva L 0-247.1 1294 1071 61.36% 23.51% 15.13%+0.98 -56.0 29
2002-08-10 Ekranas L 0-157.2 1586 1305 68.62% 21.88% 9.50%+1.45 -33.0 54
2002-08-10 @ FBK Kaunas W 1-057.2 1305 1586 9.50% 21.88% 68.62%-1.45 +33.0 33
2002-08-10 Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.3 983 1142 20.50% 24.30% 55.20%-0.67 +3.8 13
2002-08-10 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-153.3 1142 983 55.20% 24.30% 20.50%+0.67 -3.8 24
2002-08-17 FBK Kaunas L 2-350.8 1331 1553 15.26% 23.54% 61.21%-0.97 -8.3 34
2002-08-17 @ Zalgiris W 3-250.8 1553 1331 61.21% 23.54% 15.26%+0.97 +8.3 57
2002-08-17 Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.4 1238 1139 52.91% 24.51% 22.58%+0.57 -3.3 30
2002-08-17 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-153.4 1139 1238 22.58% 24.51% 52.91%-0.57 +3.3 25
2002-08-17 Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-153.1 916 987 30.40% 24.94% 44.66%-0.25 +1.5 7
2002-08-17 @ Nevezis D 1-153.1 987 916 44.66% 24.94% 30.40%+0.25 -1.5 14
2002-08-23 Gelezinis Vilkas W 5-233.6 1436 985 77.72% 18.16% 4.13%+2.27 +4.9 51
2002-08-23 @ Atlantas L 2-533.6 985 1436 4.13% 18.16% 77.72%-2.27 -4.9 14
2002-08-23 Suduva D 2-258.8 1323 1127 62.32% 23.35% 14.33%+1.04 -4.1 35
2002-08-23 @ Zalgiris D 2-258.8 1127 1323 14.33% 23.35% 62.32%-1.04 +4.1 27
2002-08-24 Ekranas D 0-049.6 1142 1338 17.22% 23.88% 58.90%-0.85 +5.3 26
2002-08-24 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.6 1338 1142 58.90% 23.88% 17.22%+0.85 -5.3 34
2002-08-24 Nevezis W 1-032.7 1235 917 70.95% 21.14% 7.91%+1.62 +4.9 33
2002-08-24 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-132.7 917 1235 7.91% 21.14% 70.95%-1.62 -4.9 7
2002-08-27 Ekranas L 1-334.1 912 1333 5.79% 19.75% 74.46%-1.93 -5.7 7
2002-08-27 @ Nevezis W 3-134.1 1333 912 74.46% 19.75% 5.79%+1.93 +5.7 37
2002-08-27 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-830.0 981 1240 12.70% 22.95% 64.34%-1.16 -53.7 14
2002-08-27 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 8-030.0 1240 981 64.34% 22.95% 12.70%+1.16 +53.7 36
2002-08-31 Ekranas L 0-327.3 927 1339 6.04% 19.95% 74.01%-1.89 -10.1 14
2002-08-31 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-027.3 1339 927 74.01% 19.95% 6.04%+1.89 +10.1 40
2002-08-31 Zalgiris D 0-050.4 907 1319 6.03% 19.94% 74.03%-1.89 +9.1 8
2002-08-31 @ Nevezis D 0-050.4 1319 907 74.03% 19.94% 6.03%+1.89 -9.1 36
2002-09-02 Atlantas L 0-232.2 1147 1441 10.73% 22.35% 66.91%-1.32 -12.5 26
2002-09-02 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-032.2 1441 1147 66.91% 22.35% 10.73%+1.32 +12.5 54
2002-09-02 Suduva W 4-132.7 1561 1131 76.77% 18.65% 4.58%+2.16 +6.3 60
2002-09-02 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-432.7 1131 1561 4.58% 18.65% 76.77%-2.16 -6.3 27
2002-09-14 Atlantas L 1-332.6 916 1454 3.25% 17.01% 79.74%-2.50 -3.0 8
2002-09-14 @ Nevezis W 3-132.6 1454 916 79.74% 17.01% 3.25%+2.50 +3.0 57
2002-09-14 Ekranas D 0-050.1 1294 1349 32.51% 24.99% 42.50%-0.17 +1.1 37
2002-09-14 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 0-050.1 1349 1294 42.50% 24.99% 32.51%+0.17 -1.2 41
2002-09-14 FBK Kaunas L 0-133.4 1135 1567 5.45% 19.48% 75.07%-1.99 -3.3 26
2002-09-14 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 1-033.4 1567 1135 75.07% 19.48% 5.45%+1.99 +3.3 63
2002-09-14 Gelezinis Vilkas D 2-259.7 1310 917 75.01% 19.50% 5.48%+1.99 -6.2 37
2002-09-14 @ Zalgiris D 2-259.7 917 1310 5.48% 19.50% 75.01%-1.99 +6.2 15
2002-09-17 Zalgiris L 0-332.8 1131 1304 19.30% 24.17% 56.53%-0.74 -31.2 26
2002-09-17 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 3-032.8 1304 1131 56.53% 24.17% 19.30%+0.74 +31.2 40
2002-09-21 FBK Kaunas D 1-164.2 1457 1571 25.24% 24.70% 50.06%-0.46 +2.7 58
2002-09-21 @ Atlantas D 1-164.2 1571 1457 50.06% 24.70% 25.24%+0.46 -2.7 64
2002-09-21 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-154.3 1335 1295 45.64% 24.91% 29.45%+0.29 -1.7 41
2002-09-21 @ Zalgiris D 1-154.3 1295 1335 29.45% 24.91% 45.64%-0.29 +1.7 38
2002-09-24 Sakalas Siauliai W 7-137.3 1125 1100 43.62% 24.97% 31.41%+0.21 +73.3 30
2002-09-24 @ Suduva L 1-737.3 1100 1125 31.41% 24.97% 43.62%-0.21 -73.3 26
2002-09-24 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-146.0 1348 1296 47.07% 24.85% 28.07%+0.34 +14.7 44
2002-09-24 @ Ekranas L 1-246.0 1296 1348 28.07% 24.85% 47.07%-0.34 -14.7 38
2002-09-28 Atlantas L 1-244.2 1282 1459 18.82% 24.11% 57.07%-0.76 -10.5 38
2002-09-28 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-144.2 1459 1282 57.07% 24.11% 18.82%+0.76 +10.5 61
2002-09-28 Ekranas L 2-353.5 1333 1362 36.07% 25.04% 38.89%-0.05 -16.9 41
2002-09-28 @ Zalgiris W 3-253.5 1362 1333 38.89% 25.04% 36.07%+0.05 +16.9 47
2002-09-28 FBK Kaunas L 0-226.8 923 1568 1.91% 14.47% 83.62%-3.02 -1.9 15
2002-09-28 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 2-026.8 1568 923 83.62% 14.47% 1.91%+3.02 +1.9 67
2002-09-28 Suduva W 1-050.6 913 1198 11.19% 22.51% 66.31%-1.28 +31.9 11
2002-09-28 @ Nevezis L 0-150.6 1198 913 66.31% 22.51% 11.19%+1.28 -31.9 30
2002-10-05 Ekranas D 0-053.9 1470 1379 51.89% 24.58% 23.53%+0.53 -3.4 62
2002-10-05 @ Atlantas D 0-053.9 1379 1470 23.53% 24.58% 51.89%-0.53 +3.4 48
2002-10-05 Inkaras Kaunas W 3-033.2 1570 1271 69.77% 21.53% 8.70%+1.53 +14.7 70
2002-10-05 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-333.2 1271 1570 8.70% 21.53% 69.77%-1.53 -14.7 38
2002-10-05 Nevezis D 1-153.2 1027 945 50.89% 24.65% 24.46%+0.49 -2.8 27
2002-10-05 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.2 945 1027 24.46% 24.65% 50.89%-0.49 +2.9 12
2002-10-08 FBK Kaunas L 1-332.0 947 1585 1.98% 14.65% 83.36%-2.98 -1.8 12
2002-10-08 @ Nevezis W 3-132.0 1585 947 83.36% 14.65% 1.98%+2.98 +1.8 73
2002-10-08 Suduva L 0-429.5 921 1166 13.61% 23.18% 63.21%-1.09 -29.8 15
2002-10-08 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-029.5 1166 921 63.21% 23.18% 13.61%+1.09 +29.8 33
2002-10-20 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-246.4 1024 891 56.44% 24.18% 19.38%+0.73 +10.2 30
2002-10-20 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 2-346.4 891 1024 19.38% 24.18% 56.44%-0.73 -10.2 15
2002-10-20 Suduva D 0-049.2 1257 1196 48.27% 24.80% 26.93%+0.39 -2.5 39
2002-10-20 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 0-049.2 1196 1257 26.93% 24.80% 48.27%-0.39 +2.5 34
2002-10-26 Ekranas L 0-137.5 1199 1383 18.26% 24.03% 57.71%-0.79 -10.8 34
2002-10-26 @ Suduva W 1-037.5 1383 1199 57.71% 24.03% 18.26%+0.79 +10.9 51
2002-10-26 Nevezis W 1-044.6 881 946 31.24% 24.96% 43.79%-0.22 +21.9 18
2002-10-26 @ Gelezinis Vilkas L 0-144.6 946 881 43.79% 24.96% 31.24%+0.22 -22.0 12
2002-10-26 Zalgiris W 3-035.6 1586 1316 67.93% 22.08% 9.99%+1.40 +16.9 76
2002-10-26 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-335.6 1316 1586 9.99% 22.08% 67.93%-1.40 -16.9 41
2002-10-27 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-153.6 1034 1254 15.38% 23.56% 61.06%-0.97 +5.2 31
2002-10-27 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.6 1254 1034 61.06% 23.56% 15.38%+0.97 -5.2 40
2002-10-31 Atlantas D 1-165.9 1603 1466 56.86% 24.13% 19.01%+0.75 -4.2 77
2002-10-31 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-165.9 1466 1603 19.01% 24.13% 56.86%-0.75 +4.2 63
2002-10-31 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-152.3 1393 1039 73.00% 20.37% 6.63%+1.80 -34.8 51
2002-10-31 @ Ekranas W 1-052.3 1039 1393 6.63% 20.37% 73.00%-1.80 +34.8 34
2002-10-31 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-230.8 924 1249 9.23% 21.77% 69.01%-1.47 -10.8 12
2002-10-31 @ Nevezis W 2-030.8 1249 924 69.01% 21.77% 9.23%+1.47 +10.8 43
2002-10-31 Zalgiris W 3-149.2 1188 1299 25.50% 24.72% 49.78%-0.44 +39.9 37
2002-10-31 @ Suduva L 1-349.2 1299 1188 49.78% 24.72% 25.50%+0.44 -40.0 41
2002-11-03 FBK Kaunas D 2-267.0 1359 1599 13.93% 23.26% 62.82%-1.07 +4.2 52
2002-11-03 @ Ekranas D 2-267.0 1599 1359 62.82% 23.26% 13.93%+1.07 -4.2 78
2002-11-03 Suduva W 3-036.5 1259 1228 44.54% 24.94% 30.51%+0.25 +45.5 44
2002-11-03 @ Zalgiris L 0-336.5 1228 1259 30.51% 24.94% 44.54%-0.25 -45.5 37
2002-11-06 Atlantas L 1-342.8 1305 1471 19.88% 24.24% 55.89%-0.71 -19.1 44
2002-11-06 @ Zalgiris W 3-142.8 1471 1305 55.89% 24.24% 19.88%+0.71 +19.1 66
2002-11-06 Suduva L 1-439.2 1074 1182 25.91% 24.74% 49.35%-0.43 -33.7 34
2002-11-06 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-139.2 1182 1074 49.35% 24.74% 25.91%+0.43 +33.7 40
2002-11-09 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-029.7 1286 1041 66.18% 22.54% 11.29%+1.27 +19.1 47
2002-11-09 @ Zalgiris L 0-329.7 1041 1286 11.29% 22.54% 66.18%-1.27 -19.0 34
2002-11-09 Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-032.1 1260 903 73.14% 20.31% 6.55%+1.81 +4.0 46
2002-11-09 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-132.1 903 1260 6.55% 20.31% 73.14%-1.81 -4.0 18
2002-11-09 Nevezis W 1-030.8 1363 913 77.67% 18.18% 4.15%+2.26 +2.5 55
2002-11-09 @ Ekranas L 0-130.8 913 1363 4.15% 18.18% 77.67%-2.26 -2.4 12
2002-11-09 Suduva D 0-051.7 1490 1216 68.18% 22.01% 9.81%+1.41 -7.7 67
2002-11-09 @ Atlantas D 0-051.7 1216 1490 9.81% 22.01% 68.18%-1.41 +7.7 41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-07-20 4.25% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 977 1 Atlantas 1460 0
2 2002-10-31 6.63% Sakalas Siauliai 1039 1 @ Ekranas 1393 0
3 2002-06-15 8.89% @ Suduva 999 1 Ekranas 1332 0
4 2002-08-10 9.50% Ekranas 1305 1 @ FBK Kaunas 1586 0
5 2002-06-11 11.12% @ Ekranas 1300 1 FBK Kaunas 1587 0
6 2002-09-28 11.19% @ Nevezis 913 1 Suduva 1198 0
7 2002-07-23 11.79% @ Sakalas Siauliai 1085 1 Zalgiris 1359 0
8 2002-04-06 14.16% Gelezinis Vilkas 1132 1 @ Ekranas 1330 0
9 2002-08-08 15.13% @ Suduva 1071 2 Inkaras Kaunas 1294 0
10 2002-04-25 15.72% @ Suduva 921 2 Nevezis 1137 0
11 2002-07-27 17.40% Inkaras Kaunas 1273 1 @ Atlantas 1429 0
12 2002-07-20 17.47% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1220 2 Zalgiris 1413 0
13 2002-05-28 20.57% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1176 1 Ekranas 1335 0
14 2002-04-09 20.93% Inkaras Kaunas 1184 1 @ Ekranas 1300 0
15 2002-04-30 22.34% @ Ekranas 1263 3 Atlantas 1404 1
16 2002-06-15 24.09% Nevezis 951 4 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1037 3
17 2002-05-11 24.28% Sakalas Siauliai 1073 1 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1157 0
18 2002-10-31 25.50% @ Suduva 1188 3 Zalgiris 1299 1
19 2002-06-04 28.29% Suduva 976 2 @ Nevezis 1025 0
20 2002-06-11 30.01% Atlantas 1423 1 @ Zalgiris 1458 0
21 2002-10-26 31.24% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 881 1 Nevezis 946 0
22 2002-04-20 32.19% Gelezinis Vilkas 1138 2 @ Nevezis 1157 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-24 73.34 @ Suduva 7 1125 43.62% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1100 31.41% 24.97%
2 2002-08-08 55.96 @ Suduva 2 1071 15.13% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1294 61.36% 23.51%
3 2002-04-25 55.34 @ Suduva 2 921 15.72% Nevezis 0 1137 60.66% 23.62%
4 2002-08-27 53.68 Inkaras Kaunas 8 1240 64.34% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 981 12.70% 22.95%
5 2002-07-20 53.58 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1220 17.47% Zalgiris 0 1413 58.62% 23.92%
6 2002-11-03 45.45 @ Zalgiris 3 1259 44.54% Suduva 0 1228 30.51% 24.94%
7 2002-06-04 43.77 Suduva 2 976 28.29% @ Nevezis 0 1025 46.84% 24.86%
8 2002-04-30 42.38 @ Ekranas 3 1263 22.34% Atlantas 1 1404 53.17% 24.49%
9 2002-08-03 40.33 Atlantas 4 1400 42.42% @ Ekranas 1 1346 32.58% 25.00%
10 2002-10-31 39.95 @ Suduva 3 1188 25.50% Zalgiris 1 1299 49.78% 24.72%
11 2002-07-20 36.34 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 977 4.25% Atlantas 0 1460 77.45% 18.30%
12 2002-10-31 34.80 Sakalas Siauliai 1 1039 6.63% @ Ekranas 0 1393 73.00% 20.37%
13 2002-11-06 33.66 Suduva 4 1182 49.35% @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1074 25.91% 24.74%
14 2002-06-15 33.36 @ Suduva 1 999 8.89% Ekranas 0 1332 69.49% 21.62%
15 2002-08-10 32.98 Ekranas 1 1305 9.50% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1586 68.62% 21.88%
16 2002-05-11 32.36 @ Atlantas 4 1334 61.64% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 1146 14.90% 23.46%
17 2002-06-11 31.99 @ Ekranas 1 1300 11.12% FBK Kaunas 0 1587 66.39% 22.49%
18 2002-09-28 31.95 @ Nevezis 1 913 11.19% Suduva 0 1198 66.31% 22.51%
19 2002-07-23 31.58 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1085 11.79% Zalgiris 0 1359 65.51% 22.70%
20 2002-09-17 31.20 Zalgiris 3 1304 56.53% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 1131 19.30% 24.17%
21 2002-04-06 30.22 Gelezinis Vilkas 1 1132 14.16% @ Ekranas 0 1330 62.54% 23.31%
22 2002-06-08 29.86 Sakalas Siauliai 2 1065 46.38% @ Nevezis 0 981 28.74% 24.88%
23 2002-10-08 29.76 Suduva 4 1166 63.21% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 921 13.61% 23.18%
24 2002-07-27 28.45 Inkaras Kaunas 1 1273 17.40% @ Atlantas 0 1429 58.69% 23.91%
25 2002-08-03 27.20 Suduva 4 1044 39.52% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 2 1010 35.44% 25.04%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-05-11 67.7 @ Zalgiris 2 1454 29.07% FBK Kaunas 2 1536 46.03% 24.89%
2 2002-11-03 67.0 @ Ekranas 2 1359 13.93% FBK Kaunas 2 1599 62.82% 23.26%
3 2002-10-31 65.9 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1603 56.86% Atlantas 1 1466 19.01% 24.13%
4 2002-09-21 64.2 @ Atlantas 1 1457 25.24% FBK Kaunas 1 1571 50.06% 24.70%
5 2002-06-19 59.8 @ Atlantas 0 1445 23.21% FBK Kaunas 0 1577 52.24% 24.56%
6 2002-09-14 59.7 @ Zalgiris 2 1310 75.01% Gelezinis Vilkas 2 917 5.48% 19.50%
7 2002-06-15 58.8 Nevezis 4 951 24.09% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 3 1037 51.28% 24.63%
8 2002-08-23 58.8 @ Zalgiris 2 1323 62.32% Suduva 2 1127 14.33% 23.35%
9 2002-08-10 57.2 Ekranas 1 1305 9.50% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1586 68.62% 21.88%
10 2002-06-11 56.6 @ Ekranas 1 1300 11.12% FBK Kaunas 0 1587 66.39% 22.49%
11 2002-06-27 56.5 @ Suduva 1 1024 3.07% FBK Kaunas 1 1574 80.20% 16.73%
12 2002-05-15 55.3 @ Suduva 1 976 4.35% Zalgiris 1 1455 77.24% 18.41%
13 2002-05-07 55.0 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 1139 9.38% Zalgiris 1 1461 68.78% 21.84%
14 2002-09-21 54.3 @ Zalgiris 1 1335 45.64% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1295 29.45% 24.91%
15 2002-10-05 53.9 @ Atlantas 0 1470 51.89% Ekranas 0 1379 23.53% 24.58%
16 2002-05-15 53.7 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1098 16.21% Ekranas 1 1307 60.07% 23.71%
17 2002-10-27 53.6 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1034 15.38% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1254 61.06% 23.56%
18 2002-04-30 53.5 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 1147 60.11% Suduva 1 977 16.18% 23.71%
19 2002-09-28 53.5 Ekranas 3 1362 38.89% @ Zalgiris 2 1333 36.07% 25.04%
20 2002-05-04 53.4 @ Suduva 1 982 18.64% Inkaras Kaunas 1 1161 57.28% 24.08%
21 2002-08-17 53.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 1238 52.91% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1139 22.58% 24.51%
22 2002-08-10 53.3 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 983 20.50% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1142 55.20% 24.30%
23 2002-10-05 53.2 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1027 50.89% Nevezis 1 945 24.46% 24.65%
24 2002-06-01 53.1 @ Suduva 1 973 27.55% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1067 47.62% 24.83%
25 2002-08-17 53.1 @ Nevezis 1 916 30.40% Gelezinis Vilkas 1 987 44.66% 24.94%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-05-25 24.2 @ FBK Kaunas 5 1544 82.21% Suduva 0 979 2.35% 15.44%
2 2002-06-01 26.4 @ FBK Kaunas 10 1564 80.76% Nevezis 0 1039 2.86% 16.38%
3 2002-05-28 26.7 FBK Kaunas 6 1550 76.76% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 1082 4.58% 18.66%
4 2002-09-28 26.8 FBK Kaunas 2 1568 83.62% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 923 1.91% 14.47%
5 2002-08-31 27.3 Ekranas 3 1339 74.01% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 927 6.04% 19.95%
6 2002-04-06 28.4 FBK Kaunas 5 1494 79.93% @ Suduva 1 951 3.18% 16.90%
7 2002-04-25 29.1 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1512 72.96% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 1158 6.65% 20.38%
8 2002-06-27 29.1 Atlantas 3 1457 70.48% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 1108 8.22% 21.30%
9 2002-10-08 29.5 Suduva 4 1166 63.21% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 921 13.61% 23.18%
10 2002-06-08 29.6 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1578 75.40% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1177 5.28% 19.32%
11 2002-05-28 29.7 @ Zalgiris 2 1449 74.29% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 1071 5.88% 19.83%
12 2002-11-09 29.7 @ Zalgiris 3 1286 66.18% Sakalas Siauliai 0 1041 11.29% 22.54%
13 2002-08-27 30.0 Inkaras Kaunas 8 1240 64.34% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 981 12.70% 22.95%
14 2002-06-23 30.1 Ekranas 2 1314 71.34% @ Nevezis 0 951 7.66% 21.00%
15 2002-07-06 30.1 FBK Kaunas 4 1570 81.71% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 980 2.52% 15.78%
16 2002-07-28 30.2 @ FBK Kaunas 4 1576 82.11% Gelezinis Vilkas 1 1013 2.38% 15.51%
17 2002-05-11 30.4 @ Atlantas 4 1334 61.64% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 1146 14.90% 23.46%
18 2002-05-11 30.4 @ Ekranas 2 1297 70.57% Suduva 0 986 8.16% 21.27%
19 2002-06-19 30.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 1187 63.81% Nevezis 0 973 13.13% 23.06%
20 2002-10-31 30.8 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1249 69.01% @ Nevezis 0 924 9.23% 21.77%
21 2002-11-09 30.8 @ Ekranas 1 1363 77.67% Nevezis 0 913 4.15% 18.18%
22 2002-08-03 31.4 @ Sakalas Siauliai 3 1116 60.42% Nevezis 0 942 15.92% 23.66%
23 2002-04-25 31.7 @ Atlantas 3 1379 61.65% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1191 14.89% 23.46%
24 2002-07-01 31.8 @ FBK Kaunas 4 1565 78.56% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1094 3.75% 17.69%
25 2002-10-08 32.0 FBK Kaunas 3 1585 83.36% @ Nevezis 1 947 1.98% 14.65%