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2003 A Lyga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

FBK Kaunas

68 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FBK Kaunas

8.21 points above expected

68 points · 59.79 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Atlantas

12.45 points below expected

33 points · 45.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FBK Kaunas 28 21 5 2 68 64 20 +44 59.79 +8.21
2 Ekranas 28 18 8 2 62 50 19 +31 56.83 +5.17
3 Vetra Rudiskes 28 13 8 7 47 42 22 +20 42.43 +4.57
4 Zalgiris 28 9 7 12 34 37 37 0 35.56 -1.56
5 Atlantas 28 9 6 13 33 27 30 -3 45.45 -12.45
6 Suduva 28 8 8 12 32 39 45 -6 27.37 +4.63
7 Sviesa Vilnius 28 7 5 16 26 25 38 -13 26.55 -0.55
8 Sakalas Siauliai 28 1 5 22 8 13 86 -73 16.09 -8.09

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FBK Kaunas 68 59.79 +8.21
2 Ekranas 62 56.83 +5.17
3 Suduva 32 27.37 +4.63
4 Vetra Rudiskes 47 42.43 +4.57
5 Sviesa Vilnius 26 26.55 -0.55

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atlantas 33 45.45 -12.45
2 Sakalas Siauliai 8 16.09 -8.09
3 Zalgiris 34 35.56 -1.56
4 Sviesa Vilnius 26 26.55 -0.55
5 Vetra Rudiskes 47 42.43 +4.57

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ekranas 5 Apr 19 – May 13 1 in 42
2 Suduva 3 Oct 15 – Oct 31 1 in 21
3 Sviesa Vilnius 2 Jun 20 – Jun 24 1 in 11
4 FBK Kaunas 6 Jun 20 – Aug 26 1 in 10
5 Zalgiris 3 Sep 5 – Sep 20 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 4 Apr 19 – May 9 1 in 67
2 Sakalas Siauliai 10 Aug 22 – Oct 31 1 in 33
3 FBK Kaunas 2 May 2 – May 9 1 in 20
4 Ekranas 2 Oct 25 – Oct 31 1 in 11
5 Zalgiris 3 Oct 7 – Oct 25 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ekranas 26 Apr 5 – Oct 15 1 in 181
2 Suduva 5 May 13 – Jun 13 1 in 67
3 Vetra Rudiskes 9 Aug 8 – Oct 4 1 in 32
4 FBK Kaunas 21 May 13 – Oct 31 1 in 25
5 Sakalas Siauliai 3 Apr 19 – May 2 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 6 Aug 1 – Sep 13 1 in 45
2 Suduva 8 Apr 12 – May 23 1 in 17
3 Sakalas Siauliai 22 May 9 – Oct 31 1 in 12
4 Zalgiris 5 May 13 – Jun 13 1 in 11
5 Ekranas 2 May 23 – May 30 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FBK Kaunas 1581 68 +69 15 10.7 +4.3
Ekranas 1446 62 -30 9 9.9 -0.9
Vetra Rudiskes 1356 47 +39 9 7.9 +1.1
Zalgiris 1193 34 -20 6 6.9 -0.9
Atlantas 1120 33 -68 3 4.7 -1.7
Suduva 1231 32 +150 12 5.7 +6.3
Sviesa Vilnius 1171 26 +25 6 6.1 -0.1
Sakalas Siauliai 784 8 -90 0 1.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL EKR FK SS SUD SV VR ZAL
Atlantas —
0-0-4
3.46
1-0-3
2.82
2-2-0
9.37
0-2-2
8.27
2-1-1
7.74
2-1-1
6.49
2-0-2
6.04
Ekranas
4-0-0
7.60
 —
1-2-1
4.82
4-0-0
9.68
1-3-0
8.89
4-0-0
9.29
2-1-1
7.67
2-2-0
8.31
FBK Kaunas
3-0-1
8.28
1-2-1
6.20
 —
4-0-0
10.06
3-1-0
9.18
4-0-0
9.18
2-2-0
8.32
4-0-0
8.89
Sakalas Siauliai
0-2-2
1.79
0-0-4
1.56
0-0-4
1.22
 —
1-0-3
2.96
0-1-3
3.55
0-2-2
2.01
0-0-4
2.53
Suduva
2-2-0
2.80
0-3-1
2.25
0-1-3
1.97
3-0-1
8.12
 —
1-1-2
6.02
1-0-3
3.61
1-1-2
4.12
Sviesa Vilnius
1-1-2
3.32
0-0-4
1.86
0-0-4
1.96
3-1-0
7.51
2-1-1
5.01
 —
0-0-4
4.00
1-2-1
3.98
Vetra Rudiskes
1-1-2
4.54
1-1-2
3.38
0-2-2
2.76
2-2-0
9.14
3-0-1
7.43
4-0-0
7.04
 —
2-2-0
6.69
Zalgiris
2-0-2
4.98
0-2-2
2.77
0-0-4
2.23
4-0-0
8.57
2-1-1
6.91
1-2-1
7.06
0-2-2
4.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +11.8
Allowed 0.74 -7.7
Differential 0.91 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%11.61%4.91%4.02%1.79%1.79%34.82%
111.61%6.25%6.70%3.57%1.34%1.34%30.80%
24.91%6.70%4.46%0.45%0.45%0.45%17.41%
34.02%3.57%0.45%1.79%——9.82%
41.79%1.34%0.45%———3.57%
5+1.79%1.34%0.45%———3.57%
Total34.82%30.80%17.41%9.82%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.53 1.53 2.35
CV 1.16 1.16 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%28.57%3.57%7.14%——53.57%
110.71%3.57%—7.14%——21.43%
23.57%10.71%————14.29%
3———3.57%——3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total32.14%46.43%3.57%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.07 -0.11
SD 1.45 1.05 1.81
CV 1.51 0.98 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—3.57%———17.86%
114.29%3.57%————17.86%
210.71%10.71%10.71%3.57%——35.71%
310.71%14.29%————25.00%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total53.57%28.57%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 0.68 +1.11
SD 1.13 0.86 1.34
CV 0.63 1.27 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
125.00%3.57%3.57%———32.14%
210.71%10.71%7.14%———28.57%
37.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
Total50.00%32.14%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 0.71 +1.57
SD 1.98 0.85 2.06
CV 0.87 1.20 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%14.29%10.71%57.14%
13.57%7.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%7.14%39.29%
2————3.57%—3.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%21.43%10.71%21.43%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 3.07 -2.61
SD 0.58 2.57 2.69
CV 1.24 0.84 —
Max 2 10 +1
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%3.57%———25.00%
110.71%7.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%39.29%
2—3.57%7.14%——3.57%14.29%
33.57%3.57%—7.14%——14.29%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.61 -0.21
SD 1.23 1.45 1.77
CV 0.88 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%21.43%10.71%7.14%—3.57%53.57%
13.57%3.57%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
23.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
310.71%—————10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total28.57%32.14%21.43%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.36 -0.46
SD 1.20 1.25 1.99
CV 1.34 0.92 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%3.57%———28.57%
117.86%14.29%7.14%3.57%——42.86%
23.57%7.14%————10.71%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%39.29%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.79 +0.71
SD 1.93 0.83 2.19
CV 1.29 1.06 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%7.14%10.71%——35.71%
17.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3———————
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total32.14%25.00%25.00%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.66 1.19 2.33
CV 1.25 0.90 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FBK Kaunas 1581 68 59.79 +8.21 93.0% 45 49 56 60 63 70 72
Ekranas 1446 62 56.83 +5.17 81.0% 39 45 53 57 62 65 69
Vetra Rudiskes 1356 47 42.43 +4.57 80.0% 24 31 38 43 47 51 63
Suduva 1231 32 27.37 +4.63 84.0% 13 18 24 28 32 36 38
Zalgiris 1193 34 35.56 -1.56 42.0% 21 24 31 35 40 46 49
Sviesa Vilnius 1171 26 26.55 -0.55 49.0% 13 17 23 27 30 36 40
Atlantas 1120 33 45.45 -12.45 4.0% 29 34 41 46 50 54 59
Sakalas Siauliai 784 8 16.09 -8.09 3.0% 1 9 13 16 19 24 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.79%
No Edge
39.29%23.21%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 6.20 Elo pts.
165 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
FBK Kaunas, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Tight Race
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.72 * Some Luck: 4.72 to 7.09 * Lucky: 7.09 to 9.45 * Wild Swing: 9.45 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.44 * Close: 0.44 to 0.67 * Off: 0.67 to 0.89 * Way Off: 0.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.70 points
Some Luck
05.9115
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Close
00.561.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
FBK Kaunas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Sakalas Siauliai
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 239.58
2.77
Strong Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
78%
Slight Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.34
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Some Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.83
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.32
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.133
Well Within Noise
00.1530.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
FBK Kaunas59.00%35.00%6.00%—————
Ekranas38.00%52.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%———
Vetra Rudiskes2.00%4.00%34.00%41.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%—
Zalgiris—1.00%5.00%24.00%46.00%19.00%5.00%—
Atlantas1.00%8.00%48.00%31.00%11.00%—1.00%—
Suduva———1.00%17.00%40.00%36.00%6.00%
Sviesa Vilnius———2.00%12.00%33.00%49.00%4.00%
Sakalas Siauliai—————3.00%7.00%90.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Atlantas 100% —
Ekranas 100% —
FBK Kaunas 100% —
Vetra Rudiskes 100% —
Zalgiris 100% —
Sviesa Vilnius 96.00% 4.00%
Suduva 94.00% 6.00%
Sakalas Siauliai 10.00% 90.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-04-04 FBK Kaunas L 0-233.4 1179 1421 13.06% 22.77% 64.18%-1.43 -15.5 0
2003-04-04 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 2-033.4 1421 1179 64.18% 22.77% 13.06%+1.43 +15.5 3
2003-04-05 Ekranas L 0-331.5 1060 1280 14.52% 23.08% 62.39%-1.29 -24.9 0
2003-04-05 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 3-031.5 1280 1060 62.39% 23.08% 14.52%+1.29 +24.9 3
2003-04-05 Suduva L 0-145.1 1241 1188 45.79% 24.50% 29.71%+0.36 -23.5 0
2003-04-05 @ Zalgiris W 1-045.1 1188 1241 29.71% 24.50% 45.79%-0.36 +23.5 3
2003-04-05 Vetra Rudiskes W 1-035.9 1353 1161 61.01% 23.30% 15.69%+1.20 +9.8 3
2003-04-05 @ Atlantas L 0-135.9 1161 1353 15.69% 23.30% 61.01%-1.20 -9.8 0
2003-04-12 Atlantas L 1-630.8 1036 1362 8.61% 21.33% 70.06%-1.94 -20.0 0
2003-04-12 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 6-130.8 1362 1036 70.06% 21.33% 8.61%+1.94 +20.0 6
2003-04-12 Suduva W 3-141.9 1305 1212 50.91% 24.28% 24.81%+0.60 +23.6 6
2003-04-12 @ Ekranas L 1-341.9 1212 1305 24.81% 24.28% 50.91%-0.60 -23.6 3
2003-04-12 Vetra Rudiskes D 0-050.1 1437 1151 68.22% 21.85% 9.93%+1.76 -8.0 4
2003-04-12 @ FBK Kaunas D 0-050.1 1151 1437 9.93% 21.85% 68.22%-1.76 +8.0 1
2003-04-12 Sviesa Vilnius D 2-257.8 1217 1164 45.89% 24.50% 29.61%+0.36 -1.3 1
2003-04-12 @ Zalgiris D 2-257.8 1164 1217 29.61% 24.50% 45.89%-0.36 +1.3 1
2003-04-15 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-134.3 1429 1015 75.38% 19.33% 5.29%+2.54 +5.4 7
2003-04-15 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-334.3 1015 1429 5.29% 19.33% 75.38%-2.54 -5.4 0
2003-04-15 Suduva D 1-153.8 1382 1188 61.26% 23.26% 15.48%+1.21 -5.4 7
2003-04-15 @ Atlantas D 1-153.8 1188 1382 15.48% 23.26% 61.26%-1.21 +5.4 4
2003-04-15 Vetra Rudiskes L 0-538.3 1165 1159 39.42% 24.62% 35.96%+0.07 -91.8 1
2003-04-15 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 5-038.3 1159 1165 35.96% 24.62% 39.42%-0.07 +91.8 4
2003-04-15 Zalgiris D 1-153.4 1329 1216 53.14% 24.13% 22.73%+0.72 -3.4 7
2003-04-15 @ Ekranas D 1-153.4 1216 1329 22.73% 24.13% 53.14%-0.72 +3.4 2
2003-04-19 Atlantas W 2-046.7 1219 1377 19.57% 23.83% 56.59%-0.92 +53.5 5
2003-04-19 @ Zalgiris L 0-246.7 1377 1219 56.59% 23.83% 19.57%+0.92 -53.5 7
2003-04-19 FBK Kaunas L 0-135.6 1193 1434 13.12% 22.78% 64.09%-1.42 -8.3 4
2003-04-19 @ Suduva W 1-035.6 1434 1193 64.09% 22.78% 13.12%+1.42 +8.3 10
2003-04-19 Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.3 1251 1010 65.05% 22.59% 12.36%+1.49 -6.3 5
2003-04-19 @ Vetra Rudiskes D 1-153.3 1010 1251 12.36% 22.59% 65.05%-1.49 +6.4 1
2003-04-19 Sviesa Vilnius W 3-030.5 1326 1073 65.90% 22.41% 11.69%+1.56 +20.3 10
2003-04-19 @ Ekranas L 0-330.5 1073 1326 11.69% 22.41% 65.90%-1.56 -20.3 1
2003-04-25 Ekranas L 0-143.3 1324 1346 35.40% 24.62% 39.98%-0.10 -19.2 7
2003-04-25 @ Atlantas W 1-043.3 1346 1324 39.98% 24.62% 35.40%+0.10 +19.2 13
2003-04-25 Suduva W 1-040.0 1245 1185 46.69% 24.47% 28.83%+0.40 +16.3 8
2003-04-25 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 0-140.0 1185 1245 28.83% 24.47% 46.69%-0.40 -16.3 4
2003-04-25 Sviesa Vilnius D 0-048.4 1016 1053 33.43% 24.59% 41.98%-0.18 +1.0 2
2003-04-25 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 0-048.4 1053 1016 41.98% 24.59% 33.43%+0.18 -1.0 2
2003-04-25 Zalgiris W 3-034.5 1443 1273 59.00% 23.57% 17.43%+1.06 +29.3 13
2003-04-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-334.5 1273 1443 17.43% 23.57% 59.00%-1.06 -29.3 5
2003-05-02 FBK Kaunas W 2-155.7 1365 1472 24.74% 24.27% 50.99%-0.61 +24.3 16
2003-05-02 @ Ekranas L 1-255.7 1472 1365 50.99% 24.27% 24.74%+0.61 -24.3 13
2003-05-02 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-148.1 1169 1017 57.20% 23.77% 19.03%+0.95 -28.6 4
2003-05-02 @ Suduva W 1-048.1 1017 1169 19.03% 23.77% 57.20%-0.95 +28.6 5
2003-05-02 Vetra Rudiskes L 1-345.3 1243 1261 36.07% 24.62% 39.31%-0.07 -31.8 5
2003-05-02 @ Zalgiris W 3-145.3 1261 1243 39.31% 24.62% 36.07%+0.07 +31.8 11
2003-05-02 Sviesa Vilnius W 1-034.1 1304 1052 65.90% 22.41% 11.69%+1.56 +7.4 10
2003-05-02 @ Atlantas L 0-134.1 1052 1304 11.69% 22.41% 65.90%-1.56 -7.4 2
2003-05-09 Atlantas L 0-150.4 1448 1312 55.61% 23.93% 20.46%+0.86 -27.9 13
2003-05-09 @ FBK Kaunas W 1-050.4 1312 1448 20.46% 23.93% 55.61%-0.86 +27.9 13
2003-05-09 Ekranas L 0-238.4 1293 1389 25.90% 24.34% 49.76%-0.55 -28.3 11
2003-05-09 @ Vetra Rudiskes W 2-038.4 1389 1293 49.76% 24.34% 25.90%+0.55 +28.3 19
2003-05-09 Suduva W 2-150.8 1045 1140 26.03% 24.35% 49.62%-0.54 +23.7 5
2003-05-09 @ Sviesa Vilnius L 1-250.8 1140 1045 49.62% 24.35% 26.03%+0.54 -23.7 4
2003-05-09 Zalgiris L 1-241.4 1046 1212 18.86% 23.75% 57.39%-0.96 -10.8 5
2003-05-09 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-141.4 1212 1046 57.39% 23.75% 18.86%+0.96 +10.8 8
2003-05-13 Atlantas D 0-049.4 1264 1340 28.44% 24.46% 47.10%-0.42 +2.3 12
2003-05-13 @ Vetra Rudiskes D 0-049.4 1340 1264 47.10% 24.46% 28.44%+0.42 -2.3 14
2003-05-13 Sakalas Siauliai W 1-031.9 1418 1035 73.85% 19.98% 6.17%+2.35 +3.9 22
2003-05-13 @ Ekranas L 0-131.9 1035 1418 6.17% 19.98% 73.85%-2.35 -3.9 5
2003-05-13 Sviesa Vilnius W 1-032.5 1420 1068 72.20% 20.62% 7.18%+2.16 +4.6 16
2003-05-13 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-132.5 1068 1420 7.18% 20.62% 72.20%-2.16 -4.6 5
2003-05-13 Zalgiris D 2-257.8 1116 1223 24.81% 24.28% 50.91%-0.60 +2.2 5
2003-05-13 @ Suduva D 2-257.8 1223 1116 50.91% 24.28% 24.81%+0.60 -2.2 9
2003-05-23 Ekranas D 0-049.8 1119 1422 9.68% 21.76% 68.55%-1.79 +8.0 6
2003-05-23 @ Suduva D 0-049.8 1422 1119 68.55% 21.76% 9.68%+1.79 -8.0 23
2003-05-23 FBK Kaunas L 0-138.5 1267 1424 19.59% 23.84% 56.57%-0.91 -11.9 12
2003-05-23 @ Vetra Rudiskes W 1-038.5 1424 1267 56.57% 23.84% 19.59%+0.91 +11.9 19
2003-05-23 Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.5 1337 1031 69.54% 21.48% 8.98%+1.89 -8.3 15
2003-05-23 @ Atlantas D 0-049.5 1031 1337 8.98% 21.48% 69.54%-1.89 +8.3 6
2003-05-23 Zalgiris D 0-048.7 1064 1220 19.68% 23.85% 56.48%-0.91 +4.7 6
2003-05-23 @ Sviesa Vilnius D 0-048.7 1220 1064 56.48% 23.85% 19.68%+0.91 -4.7 10
2003-05-30 Atlantas W 1-049.3 1127 1329 15.81% 23.31% 60.88%-1.19 +30.4 9
2003-05-30 @ Suduva L 0-149.3 1329 1127 60.88% 23.31% 15.81%+1.19 -30.4 15
2003-05-30 Ekranas D 0-049.9 1216 1413 16.17% 23.37% 60.46%-1.16 +5.8 11
2003-05-30 @ Zalgiris D 0-049.9 1413 1216 60.46% 23.37% 16.17%+1.16 -5.8 24
2003-05-30 FBK Kaunas L 1-531.0 1040 1436 6.12% 19.95% 73.93%-2.36 -11.5 6
2003-05-30 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 5-131.0 1436 1040 73.93% 19.95% 6.12%+2.36 +11.5 22
2003-05-30 Sviesa Vilnius W 1-035.7 1255 1069 60.54% 23.36% 16.10%+1.16 +10.0 15
2003-05-30 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 0-135.7 1069 1255 16.10% 23.36% 60.54%-1.16 -10.0 6
2003-06-03 Ekranas L 0-230.6 1059 1408 7.72% 20.90% 71.37%-2.07 -9.2 6
2003-06-03 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 2-030.6 1408 1059 71.37% 20.90% 7.72%+2.07 +9.2 27
2003-06-03 Suduva D 3-363.0 1448 1157 68.55% 21.76% 9.68%+1.79 -4.5 23
2003-06-03 @ FBK Kaunas D 3-363.0 1157 1448 9.68% 21.76% 68.55%-1.79 +4.5 10
2003-06-03 Vetra Rudiskes L 0-134.7 1028 1265 13.40% 22.84% 63.76%-1.39 -8.4 6
2003-06-03 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 1-034.7 1265 1028 63.76% 22.84% 13.40%+1.39 +8.4 18
2003-06-03 Zalgiris W 2-144.4 1299 1221 48.91% 24.38% 26.70%+0.50 +14.5 18
2003-06-03 @ Atlantas L 1-244.4 1221 1299 26.70% 24.38% 48.91%-0.50 -14.5 11
2003-06-13 Atlantas L 0-232.1 1049 1313 11.73% 22.42% 65.84%-1.56 -14.0 6
2003-06-13 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 2-032.1 1313 1049 65.84% 22.42% 11.73%+1.56 +14.0 21
2003-06-13 Ekranas D 2-262.8 1443 1417 42.25% 24.59% 33.16%+0.20 -0.7 24
2003-06-13 @ FBK Kaunas D 2-262.8 1417 1443 33.16% 24.59% 42.25%-0.20 +0.7 28
2003-06-13 Suduva L 2-443.8 1020 1161 21.10% 23.99% 54.91%-0.82 -18.5 6
2003-06-13 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-243.8 1161 1020 54.91% 23.99% 21.10%+0.82 +18.5 13
2003-06-13 Zalgiris D 1-153.1 1273 1207 47.55% 24.44% 28.00%+0.44 -2.1 19
2003-06-13 @ Vetra Rudiskes D 1-153.1 1207 1273 28.00% 24.44% 47.55%-0.44 +2.1 12
2003-06-20 FBK Kaunas L 0-141.1 1327 1442 23.82% 24.21% 51.97%-0.66 -14.0 21
2003-06-20 @ Atlantas W 1-041.1 1442 1327 51.97% 24.21% 23.82%+0.66 +14.0 27
2003-06-20 Vetra Rudiskes W 3-141.4 1418 1271 56.71% 23.82% 19.47%+0.92 +19.3 31
2003-06-20 @ Ekranas L 1-341.4 1271 1418 19.47% 23.82% 56.71%-0.92 -19.3 19
2003-06-20 Sviesa Vilnius L 0-147.9 1180 1035 56.52% 23.84% 19.64%+0.91 -28.3 13
2003-06-20 @ Suduva W 1-047.9 1035 1180 19.64% 23.84% 56.52%-0.91 +28.3 9
2003-06-24 Atlantas W 3-143.0 1437 1313 54.31% 24.04% 21.65%+0.79 +21.1 34
2003-06-24 @ Ekranas L 1-343.0 1313 1437 21.65% 24.04% 54.31%-0.79 -21.1 21
2003-06-24 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-036.0 1064 1001 47.04% 24.46% 28.50%+0.41 +44.4 12
2003-06-24 @ Sviesa Vilnius L 0-336.0 1001 1064 28.50% 24.46% 47.04%-0.41 -44.4 6
2003-06-24 Vetra Rudiskes L 0-236.8 1152 1252 25.47% 24.32% 50.22%-0.57 -27.9 13
2003-06-24 @ Suduva W 2-036.8 1252 1152 50.22% 24.32% 25.47%+0.57 +27.9 22
2003-07-25 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-135.1 1458 957 79.18% 17.39% 3.43%+3.07 +1.9 37
2003-07-25 @ Ekranas L 1-235.1 957 1458 3.43% 17.39% 79.18%-3.07 -1.9 6
2003-07-25 Suduva W 5-138.0 1209 1124 49.91% 24.33% 25.75%+0.55 +44.5 15
2003-07-25 @ Zalgiris L 1-538.0 1124 1209 25.75% 24.33% 49.91%-0.55 -44.5 13
2003-07-25 Vetra Rudiskes W 2-147.3 1292 1280 40.32% 24.61% 35.07%+0.11 +18.0 24
2003-07-25 @ Atlantas L 1-247.3 1280 1292 35.07% 24.61% 40.32%-0.11 -18.0 22
2003-07-26 Sviesa Vilnius W 1-032.8 1456 1108 72.04% 20.67% 7.29%+2.14 +4.6 30
2003-07-26 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-132.8 1108 1456 7.29% 20.67% 72.04%-2.14 -4.6 12
2003-07-29 Sviesa Vilnius W 2-137.6 1460 1103 72.49% 20.51% 7.00%+2.19 +4.2 40
2003-07-29 @ Ekranas L 1-237.6 1103 1460 7.00% 20.51% 72.49%-2.19 -4.2 12
2003-08-01 Atlantas D 0-049.6 955 1310 7.50% 20.79% 71.71%-2.11 +8.9 7
2003-08-01 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 0-049.6 1310 955 71.71% 20.79% 7.50%+2.11 -8.9 25
2003-08-01 Ekranas D 0-050.3 1079 1464 6.47% 20.19% 73.34%-2.29 +9.3 14
2003-08-01 @ Suduva D 0-050.3 1464 1079 73.34% 20.19% 6.47%+2.29 -9.3 41
2003-08-01 Sviesa Vilnius L 0-344.6 1254 1099 57.51% 23.74% 18.75%+0.97 -78.9 15
2003-08-01 @ Zalgiris W 3-044.6 1099 1254 18.75% 23.74% 57.51%-0.97 +78.9 15
2003-08-08 Suduva D 3-361.9 1301 1088 62.82% 23.01% 14.17%+1.32 -3.6 26
2003-08-08 @ Atlantas D 3-361.9 1088 1301 14.17% 23.01% 62.82%-1.32 +3.6 15
2003-08-08 Vetra Rudiskes L 1-244.4 1178 1262 27.40% 24.41% 48.19%-0.47 -14.8 15
2003-08-08 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 2-144.4 1262 1178 48.19% 24.41% 27.40%+0.47 +14.8 25
2003-08-08 Zalgiris W 3-030.9 1455 1175 67.86% 21.95% 10.20%+1.73 +17.8 44
2003-08-08 @ Ekranas L 0-330.9 1175 1455 10.20% 21.95% 67.86%-1.73 -17.8 15
2003-08-09 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-135.1 1461 964 79.03% 17.48% 3.50%+3.04 +2.0 33
2003-08-09 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-235.1 964 1461 3.50% 17.48% 79.03%-3.04 -2.0 7
2003-08-12 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-033.3 1157 962 61.31% 23.25% 15.44%+1.22 +18.1 18
2003-08-12 @ Zalgiris L 0-233.3 962 1157 15.44% 23.25% 61.31%-1.22 -18.1 7
2003-08-15 FBK Kaunas L 2-536.1 1092 1463 6.93% 20.47% 72.60%-2.21 -8.8 15
2003-08-15 @ Suduva W 5-236.1 1463 1092 72.60% 20.47% 6.93%+2.21 +8.8 36
2003-08-15 Vetra Rudiskes D 1-153.7 944 1277 8.36% 21.22% 70.42%-1.98 +7.6 8
2003-08-15 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.7 1277 944 70.42% 21.22% 8.36%+1.98 -7.6 26
2003-08-22 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-032.9 1163 951 62.74% 23.02% 14.24%+1.32 +16.8 18
2003-08-22 @ Sviesa Vilnius L 0-232.9 951 1163 14.24% 23.02% 62.74%-1.32 -16.8 8
2003-08-22 Suduva W 2-140.6 1269 1083 60.48% 23.37% 16.14%+1.16 +9.4 29
2003-08-22 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 1-240.6 1083 1269 16.14% 23.37% 60.48%-1.16 -9.4 15
2003-08-22 Zalgiris W 1-034.4 1472 1175 68.95% 21.65% 9.40%+1.83 +6.0 39
2003-08-22 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-134.4 1175 1472 9.40% 21.65% 68.95%-1.83 -6.0 18
2003-08-23 Ekranas L 0-139.3 1298 1473 18.03% 23.65% 58.32%-1.02 -11.0 26
2003-08-23 @ Atlantas W 1-039.3 1473 1298 58.32% 23.65% 18.03%+1.02 +11.0 47
2003-08-26 FBK Kaunas L 1-239.2 1169 1478 9.42% 21.66% 68.92%-1.83 -5.7 18
2003-08-26 @ Zalgiris W 2-139.2 1478 1169 68.92% 21.66% 9.42%+1.83 +5.7 42
2003-08-29 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-141.8 1074 935 55.97% 23.90% 20.14%+0.88 +11.5 18
2003-08-29 @ Suduva L 1-241.8 935 1074 20.14% 23.90% 55.97%-0.88 -11.5 8
2003-08-31 Sviesa Vilnius D 0-048.9 1287 1180 52.39% 24.18% 23.43%+0.68 -3.6 27
2003-08-31 @ Atlantas D 0-048.9 1180 1287 23.43% 24.18% 52.39%-0.68 +3.6 19
2003-09-01 Vetra Rudiskes D 0-048.8 1163 1278 23.84% 24.21% 51.94%-0.66 +3.5 19
2003-09-01 @ Zalgiris D 0-048.8 1278 1163 51.94% 24.21% 23.84%+0.66 -3.5 30
2003-09-02 FBK Kaunas D 2-266.3 1484 1483 38.61% 24.62% 36.76%+0.04 -0.2 48
2003-09-02 @ Ekranas D 2-266.3 1483 1484 36.76% 24.62% 38.61%-0.04 +0.1 43
2003-09-05 Atlantas W 1-038.1 1484 1283 61.80% 23.18% 15.03%+1.25 +9.4 46
2003-09-05 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-138.1 1283 1484 15.03% 23.18% 61.80%-1.25 -9.4 27
2003-09-05 Ekranas D 0-051.6 1275 1484 15.35% 23.24% 61.41%-1.22 +6.1 31
2003-09-05 @ Vetra Rudiskes D 0-051.6 1484 1275 61.41% 23.24% 15.35%+1.22 -6.1 49
2003-09-05 Suduva D 1-152.8 1184 1085 51.46% 24.24% 24.29%+0.63 -3.0 20
2003-09-05 @ Sviesa Vilnius D 1-152.8 1085 1184 24.29% 24.24% 51.46%-0.63 +3.0 19
2003-09-05 Zalgiris L 0-429.9 923 1167 12.94% 22.74% 64.32%-1.44 -29.2 8
2003-09-05 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-029.9 1167 923 64.32% 22.74% 12.94%+1.44 +29.2 22
2003-09-13 Atlantas W 1-042.5 1281 1274 39.64% 24.62% 35.74%+0.08 +19.3 34
2003-09-13 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 0-142.5 1274 1281 35.74% 24.62% 39.64%-0.08 -19.3 27
2003-09-13 Ekranas L 0-424.9 894 1477 2.42% 15.80% 81.78%-3.49 -5.0 8
2003-09-13 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-024.9 1477 894 81.78% 15.80% 2.42%+3.49 +5.0 52
2003-09-13 FBK Kaunas L 0-330.9 1181 1493 9.25% 21.60% 69.15%-1.85 -16.1 20
2003-09-13 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 3-030.9 1493 1181 69.15% 21.60% 9.25%+1.85 +16.1 49
2003-09-13 Zalgiris L 1-243.3 1088 1196 24.62% 24.27% 51.11%-0.61 -13.6 19
2003-09-13 @ Suduva W 2-143.3 1196 1088 51.11% 24.27% 24.62%+0.61 +13.6 25
2003-09-20 Sakalas Siauliai W 4-027.4 1254 889 72.96% 20.33% 6.71%+2.25 +15.2 30
2003-09-20 @ Atlantas L 0-427.4 889 1254 6.71% 20.33% 72.96%-2.25 -15.2 8
2003-09-20 Suduva D 2-259.8 1482 1075 75.11% 19.45% 5.44%+2.50 -6.4 53
2003-09-20 @ Ekranas D 2-259.8 1075 1482 5.44% 19.45% 75.11%-2.50 +6.4 20
2003-09-20 Vetra Rudiskes D 1-156.9 1509 1300 62.49% 23.07% 14.45%+1.30 -5.7 50
2003-09-20 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-156.9 1300 1509 14.45% 23.07% 62.49%-1.30 +5.7 35
2003-09-20 Zalgiris L 0-141.0 1165 1210 32.28% 24.57% 43.15%-0.24 -17.9 20
2003-09-20 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 1-041.0 1210 1165 43.15% 24.57% 32.28%+0.24 +17.9 28
2003-09-27 Atlantas W 3-045.2 1081 1269 16.93% 23.49% 59.57%-1.10 +81.5 23
2003-09-27 @ Suduva L 0-345.2 1269 1081 59.57% 23.49% 16.93%+1.10 -81.6 30
2003-09-27 Ekranas L 0-234.2 1228 1476 12.65% 22.67% 64.68%-1.46 -15.1 28
2003-09-27 @ Zalgiris W 2-034.2 1476 1228 64.68% 22.67% 12.65%+1.46 +15.1 56
2003-09-27 FBK Kaunas L 0-1024.9 874 1503 1.92% 14.76% 83.32%-3.77 -9.2 8
2003-09-27 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 10-024.9 1503 874 83.32% 14.76% 1.92%+3.77 +9.2 53
2003-09-27 Sviesa Vilnius W 1-036.6 1306 1147 58.00% 23.68% 18.31%+1.00 +11.2 38
2003-09-27 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 0-136.6 1147 1306 18.31% 23.68% 58.00%-1.00 -11.2 20
2003-10-04 Ekranas L 1-336.2 1135 1491 7.48% 20.78% 71.75%-2.11 -7.8 20
2003-10-04 @ Sviesa Vilnius W 3-136.2 1491 1135 71.75% 20.78% 7.48%+2.11 +7.8 59
2003-10-04 Sakalas Siauliai W 9-026.5 1317 865 77.17% 18.47% 4.36%+2.77 +20.6 41
2003-10-04 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 0-926.5 865 1317 4.36% 18.47% 77.17%-2.77 -20.6 8
2003-10-04 Suduva W 4-134.5 1513 1163 72.12% 20.64% 7.24%+2.15 +10.6 56
2003-10-04 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-434.5 1163 1513 7.24% 20.64% 72.12%-2.15 -10.6 23
2003-10-04 Zalgiris L 0-141.8 1188 1213 35.07% 24.61% 40.32%-0.11 -19.0 30
2003-10-04 @ Atlantas W 1-041.8 1213 1188 40.32% 24.61% 35.07%+0.11 +19.0 31
2003-10-07 Atlantas L 1-250.3 1232 1169 47.10% 24.46% 28.44%+0.42 -22.7 31
2003-10-07 @ Zalgiris W 2-150.3 1169 1232 28.44% 24.46% 47.10%-0.42 +22.7 33
2003-10-07 FBK Kaunas L 1-246.0 1338 1523 17.17% 23.53% 59.30%-1.08 -10.0 41
2003-10-07 @ Vetra Rudiskes W 2-146.0 1523 1338 59.30% 23.53% 17.17%+1.08 +10.0 59
2003-10-15 Atlantas W 1-034.6 1499 1191 69.62% 21.46% 8.92%+1.90 +5.7 62
2003-10-15 @ Ekranas L 0-134.6 1191 1499 8.92% 21.46% 69.62%-1.90 -5.7 33
2003-10-15 FBK Kaunas L 0-233.2 1209 1533 8.72% 21.38% 69.90%-1.92 -10.5 31
2003-10-15 @ Zalgiris W 2-033.2 1533 1209 69.90% 21.38% 8.72%+1.92 +10.5 62
2003-10-15 Vetra Rudiskes W 1-048.7 1152 1328 17.97% 23.64% 58.39%-1.03 +29.2 26
2003-10-15 @ Suduva L 0-148.7 1328 1152 58.39% 23.64% 17.97%+1.03 -29.2 41
2003-10-15 Sviesa Vilnius L 1-434.4 844 1128 10.64% 22.10% 67.26%-1.68 -15.6 8
2003-10-15 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-134.4 1128 844 67.26% 22.10% 10.64%+1.68 +15.6 23
2003-10-25 Atlantas W 3-040.4 1143 1186 32.65% 24.58% 42.77%-0.22 +60.8 26
2003-10-25 @ Sviesa Vilnius L 0-340.4 1186 1143 42.77% 24.58% 32.65%+0.22 -60.8 33
2003-10-25 Ekranas W 2-050.3 1544 1505 44.00% 24.55% 31.44%+0.27 +33.0 65
2003-10-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-250.3 1505 1544 31.44% 24.55% 44.00%-0.27 -33.0 62
2003-10-25 Suduva L 0-427.7 828 1181 7.57% 20.83% 71.60%-2.10 -17.2 8
2003-10-25 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 4-027.7 1181 828 71.60% 20.83% 7.57%+2.10 +17.2 29
2003-10-25 Zalgiris W 4-139.5 1299 1198 51.67% 24.23% 24.10%+0.64 +32.6 44
2003-10-25 @ Vetra Rudiskes L 1-439.5 1198 1299 24.10% 24.23% 51.67%-0.64 -32.6 31
2003-10-31 FBK Kaunas L 1-335.6 1125 1577 4.66% 18.77% 76.58%-2.69 -4.7 33
2003-10-31 @ Atlantas W 3-135.6 1577 1125 76.58% 18.77% 4.66%+2.69 +4.7 68
2003-10-31 Sakalas Siauliai W 7-027.5 1166 811 72.39% 20.55% 7.07%+2.18 +27.1 34
2003-10-31 @ Zalgiris L 0-727.5 811 1166 7.07% 20.55% 72.39%-2.18 -27.1 8
2003-10-31 Vetra Rudiskes L 2-360.7 1472 1331 56.07% 23.89% 20.05%+0.89 -25.2 62
2003-10-31 @ Ekranas W 3-260.7 1331 1472 20.05% 23.89% 56.07%-0.89 +25.2 47
2003-10-31 Sviesa Vilnius W 3-145.5 1199 1204 37.77% 24.63% 37.60%+0.00 +32.8 32
2003-10-31 @ Suduva L 1-345.5 1204 1199 37.60% 24.63% 37.77%+0.00 -32.8 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-05-30 15.81% @ Suduva 1127 1 Atlantas 1329 0
2 2003-09-27 16.93% @ Suduva 1081 3 Atlantas 1269 0
3 2003-10-15 17.97% @ Suduva 1152 1 Vetra Rudiskes 1328 0
4 2003-08-01 18.75% Sviesa Vilnius 1099 3 @ Zalgiris 1254 0
5 2003-05-02 19.03% Sakalas Siauliai 1017 1 @ Suduva 1169 0
6 2003-04-19 19.57% @ Zalgiris 1219 2 Atlantas 1377 0
7 2003-06-20 19.64% Sviesa Vilnius 1035 1 @ Suduva 1180 0
8 2003-10-31 20.05% Vetra Rudiskes 1331 3 @ Ekranas 1472 2
9 2003-05-09 20.46% Atlantas 1312 1 @ FBK Kaunas 1448 0
10 2003-05-02 24.74% @ Ekranas 1365 2 FBK Kaunas 1472 1
11 2003-05-09 26.03% @ Sviesa Vilnius 1045 2 Suduva 1140 1
12 2003-10-07 28.44% Atlantas 1169 2 @ Zalgiris 1232 1
13 2003-04-05 29.71% Suduva 1188 1 @ Zalgiris 1241 0
14 2003-10-25 32.65% @ Sviesa Vilnius 1143 3 Atlantas 1186 0
15 2003-04-15 35.96% Vetra Rudiskes 1159 5 @ Sviesa Vilnius 1165 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-04-15 91.76 Vetra Rudiskes 5 1159 35.96% @ Sviesa Vilnius 0 1165 39.42% 24.62%
2 2003-09-27 81.55 @ Suduva 3 1081 16.93% Atlantas 0 1269 59.57% 23.49%
3 2003-08-01 78.87 Sviesa Vilnius 3 1099 18.75% @ Zalgiris 0 1254 57.51% 23.74%
4 2003-10-25 60.80 @ Sviesa Vilnius 3 1143 32.65% Atlantas 0 1186 42.77% 24.58%
5 2003-04-19 53.48 @ Zalgiris 2 1219 19.57% Atlantas 0 1377 56.59% 23.83%
6 2003-07-25 44.51 @ Zalgiris 5 1209 49.91% Suduva 1 1124 25.75% 24.33%
7 2003-06-24 44.36 @ Sviesa Vilnius 3 1064 47.04% Sakalas Siauliai 0 1001 28.50% 24.46%
8 2003-10-25 33.00 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1544 44.00% Ekranas 0 1505 31.44% 24.55%
9 2003-10-31 32.79 @ Suduva 3 1199 37.77% Sviesa Vilnius 1 1204 37.60% 24.63%
10 2003-10-25 32.64 @ Vetra Rudiskes 4 1299 51.67% Zalgiris 1 1198 24.10% 24.23%
11 2003-05-02 31.77 Vetra Rudiskes 3 1261 39.31% @ Zalgiris 1 1243 36.07% 24.62%
12 2003-05-30 30.40 @ Suduva 1 1127 15.81% Atlantas 0 1329 60.88% 23.31%
13 2003-04-25 29.35 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1443 59.00% Zalgiris 0 1273 17.43% 23.57%
14 2003-10-15 29.22 @ Suduva 1 1152 17.97% Vetra Rudiskes 0 1328 58.39% 23.64%
15 2003-09-05 29.21 Zalgiris 4 1167 64.32% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 923 12.94% 22.74%
16 2003-05-02 28.64 Sakalas Siauliai 1 1017 19.03% @ Suduva 0 1169 57.20% 23.77%
17 2003-06-20 28.33 Sviesa Vilnius 1 1035 19.64% @ Suduva 0 1180 56.52% 23.84%
18 2003-05-09 28.27 Ekranas 2 1389 49.76% @ Vetra Rudiskes 0 1293 25.90% 24.34%
19 2003-05-09 27.90 Atlantas 1 1312 20.46% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1448 55.61% 23.93%
20 2003-06-24 27.89 Vetra Rudiskes 2 1252 50.22% @ Suduva 0 1152 25.47% 24.32%
21 2003-10-31 27.14 @ Zalgiris 7 1166 72.39% Sakalas Siauliai 0 811 7.07% 20.55%
22 2003-10-31 25.15 Vetra Rudiskes 3 1331 20.05% @ Ekranas 2 1472 56.07% 23.89%
23 2003-04-05 24.90 Ekranas 3 1280 62.39% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 1060 14.52% 23.08%
24 2003-05-02 24.30 @ Ekranas 2 1365 24.74% FBK Kaunas 1 1472 50.99% 24.27%
25 2003-05-09 23.73 @ Sviesa Vilnius 2 1045 26.03% Suduva 1 1140 49.62% 24.35%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-02 66.3 @ Ekranas 2 1484 38.61% FBK Kaunas 2 1483 36.76% 24.62%
2 2003-06-03 63.0 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1448 68.55% Suduva 3 1157 9.68% 21.76%
3 2003-06-13 62.8 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1443 42.25% Ekranas 2 1417 33.16% 24.59%
4 2003-08-08 61.9 @ Atlantas 3 1301 62.82% Suduva 3 1088 14.17% 23.01%
5 2003-10-31 60.7 Vetra Rudiskes 3 1331 20.05% @ Ekranas 2 1472 56.07% 23.89%
6 2003-09-20 59.8 @ Ekranas 2 1482 75.11% Suduva 2 1075 5.44% 19.45%
7 2003-04-12 57.8 @ Zalgiris 2 1217 45.89% Sviesa Vilnius 2 1164 29.61% 24.50%
8 2003-05-13 57.8 @ Suduva 2 1116 24.81% Zalgiris 2 1223 50.91% 24.28%
9 2003-09-20 56.9 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1509 62.49% Vetra Rudiskes 1 1300 14.45% 23.07%
10 2003-05-02 55.7 @ Ekranas 2 1365 24.74% FBK Kaunas 1 1472 50.99% 24.27%
11 2003-04-15 53.8 @ Atlantas 1 1382 61.26% Suduva 1 1188 15.48% 23.26%
12 2003-08-15 53.7 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 944 8.36% Vetra Rudiskes 1 1277 70.42% 21.22%
13 2003-04-15 53.4 @ Ekranas 1 1329 53.14% Zalgiris 1 1216 22.73% 24.13%
14 2003-04-19 53.3 @ Vetra Rudiskes 1 1251 65.05% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1010 12.36% 22.59%
15 2003-06-13 53.1 @ Vetra Rudiskes 1 1273 47.55% Zalgiris 1 1207 28.00% 24.44%
16 2003-09-05 52.8 @ Sviesa Vilnius 1 1184 51.46% Suduva 1 1085 24.29% 24.24%
17 2003-09-05 51.6 @ Vetra Rudiskes 0 1275 15.35% Ekranas 0 1484 61.41% 23.24%
18 2003-05-09 50.8 @ Sviesa Vilnius 2 1045 26.03% Suduva 1 1140 49.62% 24.35%
19 2003-05-09 50.4 Atlantas 1 1312 20.46% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1448 55.61% 23.93%
20 2003-08-01 50.3 @ Suduva 0 1079 6.47% Ekranas 0 1464 73.34% 20.19%
21 2003-10-07 50.3 Atlantas 2 1169 28.44% @ Zalgiris 1 1232 47.10% 24.46%
22 2003-10-25 50.3 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1544 44.00% Ekranas 0 1505 31.44% 24.55%
23 2003-04-12 50.1 @ FBK Kaunas 0 1437 68.22% Vetra Rudiskes 0 1151 9.93% 21.85%
24 2003-05-30 49.9 @ Zalgiris 0 1216 16.17% Ekranas 0 1413 60.46% 23.37%
25 2003-05-23 49.8 @ Suduva 0 1119 9.68% Ekranas 0 1422 68.55% 21.76%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-13 24.9 Ekranas 4 1477 81.78% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 894 2.42% 15.80%
2 2003-09-27 24.9 FBK Kaunas 10 1503 83.32% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 874 1.92% 14.76%
3 2003-10-04 26.5 @ Vetra Rudiskes 9 1317 77.17% Sakalas Siauliai 0 865 4.36% 18.47%
4 2003-09-20 27.4 @ Atlantas 4 1254 72.96% Sakalas Siauliai 0 889 6.71% 20.33%
5 2003-10-31 27.5 @ Zalgiris 7 1166 72.39% Sakalas Siauliai 0 811 7.07% 20.55%
6 2003-10-25 27.7 Suduva 4 1181 71.60% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 828 7.57% 20.83%
7 2003-09-05 29.9 Zalgiris 4 1167 64.32% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 923 12.94% 22.74%
8 2003-04-19 30.5 @ Ekranas 3 1326 65.90% Sviesa Vilnius 0 1073 11.69% 22.41%
9 2003-06-03 30.6 Ekranas 2 1408 71.37% @ Sviesa Vilnius 0 1059 7.72% 20.90%
10 2003-04-12 30.8 Atlantas 6 1362 70.06% @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1036 8.61% 21.33%
11 2003-08-08 30.9 @ Ekranas 3 1455 67.86% Zalgiris 0 1175 10.20% 21.95%
12 2003-09-13 30.9 FBK Kaunas 3 1493 69.15% @ Sviesa Vilnius 0 1181 9.25% 21.60%
13 2003-05-30 31.0 FBK Kaunas 5 1436 73.93% @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 1040 6.12% 19.95%
14 2003-04-05 31.5 Ekranas 3 1280 62.39% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 1060 14.52% 23.08%
15 2003-05-13 31.9 @ Ekranas 1 1418 73.85% Sakalas Siauliai 0 1035 6.17% 19.98%
16 2003-06-13 32.1 Atlantas 2 1313 65.84% @ Sviesa Vilnius 0 1049 11.73% 22.42%
17 2003-05-13 32.5 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1420 72.20% Sviesa Vilnius 0 1068 7.18% 20.62%
18 2003-07-26 32.8 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1456 72.04% Sviesa Vilnius 0 1108 7.29% 20.67%
19 2003-08-22 32.9 @ Sviesa Vilnius 2 1163 62.74% Sakalas Siauliai 0 951 14.24% 23.02%
20 2003-10-15 33.2 FBK Kaunas 2 1533 69.90% @ Zalgiris 0 1209 8.72% 21.38%
21 2003-08-12 33.3 @ Zalgiris 2 1157 61.31% Sakalas Siauliai 0 962 15.44% 23.25%
22 2003-04-04 33.4 FBK Kaunas 2 1421 64.18% @ Sviesa Vilnius 0 1179 13.06% 22.77%
23 2003-05-02 34.1 @ Atlantas 1 1304 65.90% Sviesa Vilnius 0 1052 11.69% 22.41%
24 2003-09-27 34.2 Ekranas 2 1476 64.68% @ Zalgiris 0 1228 12.65% 22.67%
25 2003-04-15 34.3 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1429 75.38% Sakalas Siauliai 1 1015 5.29% 19.33%