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2008 A Lyga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Ekranas

65 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ekranas

13.75 points above expected

65 points · 51.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zalgiris

10.73 points below expected

28 points · 38.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ekranas 28 20 5 3 65 46 12 +34 51.25 +13.75
2 FBK Kaunas 28 16 7 5 55 51 17 +34 56.91 -1.91
3 Suduva 28 14 6 8 48 35 25 +10 43.47 +4.53
4 Vetra 28 14 6 8 48 33 24 +9 42.73 +5.27
5 Atlantas 28 7 7 14 28 31 44 -13 32.26 -4.26
6 Zalgiris 28 6 10 12 28 27 41 -14 38.73 -10.73
7 FK Siauliai 28 5 9 14 24 24 41 -17 29.52 -5.52
8 Silute 28 3 4 21 13 19 62 -43 15.76 -2.76

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ekranas 65 51.25 +13.75
2 Vetra 48 42.73 +5.27
3 Suduva 48 43.47 +4.53
4 FBK Kaunas 55 56.91 -1.91
5 Silute 13 15.76 -2.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zalgiris 28 38.73 -10.73
2 FK Siauliai 24 29.52 -5.52
3 Atlantas 28 32.26 -4.26
4 Silute 13 15.76 -2.76
5 FBK Kaunas 55 56.91 -1.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 6 May 4 – Jun 15 1 in 139
2 Ekranas 5 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 14
3 FK Siauliai 2 Aug 6 – Aug 10 1 in 11
4 Vetra 3 Sep 21 – Oct 5 1 in 11
5 Zalgiris 3 Aug 24 – Sep 14 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zalgiris 4 Sep 28 – Oct 26 1 in 211
2 FK Siauliai 6 Aug 16 – Sep 28 1 in 113
3 Atlantas 6 Aug 10 – Sep 28 1 in 43
4 FBK Kaunas 2 Apr 12 – Apr 20 1 in 20
5 Vetra 2 Oct 29 – Nov 2 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FK Siauliai 8 Jun 8 – Aug 10 1 in 217
2 Ekranas 16 Apr 27 – Sep 28 1 in 68
3 Suduva 8 May 4 – Jul 6 1 in 19
4 FBK Kaunas 17 Apr 27 – Oct 19 1 in 16
5 Zalgiris 6 Mar 29 – May 4 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 10 Apr 12 – Jun 29 1 in 35
2 Zalgiris 6 May 11 – Jun 22 1 in 27
3 Vetra 6 Jun 8 – Jul 13 1 in 21
4 Suduva 4 Jun 29 – Jul 23 1 in 12
5 FBK Kaunas 3 Apr 12 – Apr 27 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ekranas 1621 65 +24 12 9.0 +3.0
FBK Kaunas 1610 55 -6 7 9.4 -2.4
Vetra 1462 48 +2 9 7.0 +2.0
Suduva 1473 48 -3 7 7.3 -0.3
Atlantas 1341 28 +21 7 6.4 +0.6
Zalgiris 1323 28 -54 3 5.8 -2.8
FK Siauliai 1270 24 -16 4 5.5 -1.5
Silute 1175 13 +5 4 2.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL EKR FK FS SIL SUD VET ZAL
Atlantas —
0-1-3
3.16
0-1-3
2.44
0-2-2
6.10
4-0-0
8.19
1-0-3
3.89
1-1-2
4.27
1-2-1
4.87
Ekranas
3-1-0
7.91
 —
3-0-1
4.45
3-1-0
8.05
4-0-0
9.45
2-1-1
6.53
2-1-1
6.22
3-1-0
7.15
FBK Kaunas
3-1-0
8.71
1-0-3
6.55
 —
2-2-0
9.11
3-1-0
9.95
3-1-0
7.46
1-1-2
7.70
3-1-0
7.91
FK Siauliai
2-2-0
4.89
0-1-3
3.03
0-2-2
2.08
 —
1-1-2
7.90
0-0-4
3.45
1-1-2
3.80
1-2-1
4.17
Silute
0-0-4
2.90
0-0-4
1.80
0-1-3
1.40
2-1-1
3.16
 —
0-1-3
2.02
0-0-4
2.07
1-1-2
2.38
Suduva
3-0-1
7.13
1-1-2
4.47
0-1-3
3.57
4-0-0
7.60
3-1-0
9.18
 —
1-1-2
5.62
2-2-0
6.49
Vetra
2-1-1
6.72
1-1-2
4.78
2-1-1
3.34
2-1-1
7.22
4-0-0
9.13
2-1-1
5.37
 —
1-1-2
6.47
Zalgiris
1-2-1
6.11
0-1-3
3.90
0-1-3
3.16
1-2-1
6.83
2-1-1
8.77
0-2-2
4.51
2-1-1
4.52
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +15.1
Allowed 0.96 -10.5
Differential 0.96 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%12.05%7.59%4.46%2.23%1.34%34.82%
112.05%13.39%6.25%0.89%—0.89%33.48%
27.59%6.25%2.68%1.34%0.89%—18.75%
34.46%0.89%1.34%———6.70%
42.23%—0.89%—0.89%—4.02%
5+1.34%0.89%————2.23%
Total34.82%33.48%18.75%6.70%4.02%2.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.19 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.93
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%3.57%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
17.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%—3.57%35.71%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
33.57%—————3.57%
4——3.57%—3.57%—7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.57 -0.46
SD 1.17 1.35 1.64
CV 1.05 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
135.71%14.29%3.57%———53.57%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
310.71%—————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total64.29%28.57%7.14%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.43 +1.21
SD 1.34 0.63 1.60
CV 0.82 1.48 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%—3.57%——17.86%
17.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
221.43%7.14%—3.57%——32.14%
37.14%—————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total60.71%25.00%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.61 +1.21
SD 1.52 0.92 2.02
CV 0.83 1.51 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%21.43%3.57%—3.57%57.14%
13.57%14.29%————17.86%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
33.57%—————3.57%
4——3.57%—3.57%—7.14%
5+———————
Total17.86%39.29%32.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.46 -0.61
SD 1.24 1.17 1.64
CV 1.45 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%7.14%10.71%14.29%3.57%46.43%
13.57%10.71%21.43%3.57%——39.29%
27.14%—3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%21.43%32.14%14.29%17.86%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.21 -1.54
SD 0.72 1.45 1.88
CV 1.07 0.65 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%3.57%7.14%——35.71%
114.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
23.57%10.71%————14.29%
37.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total42.86%32.14%17.86%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.89 +0.36
SD 1.24 0.96 1.66
CV 0.99 1.07 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%3.57%——35.71%
117.86%10.71%————28.57%
27.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total39.29%39.29%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 0.86 +0.32
SD 1.16 0.85 1.59
CV 0.98 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
17.14%25.00%———3.57%35.71%
27.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total21.43%46.43%14.29%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.46 -0.50
SD 1.10 1.40 1.84
CV 1.15 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ekranas 1621 65 51.25 +13.75 97.0% 32 41 46 51 56 61 72
FBK Kaunas 1610 55 56.91 -1.91 37.0% 44 46 52 57 61 67 70
Suduva 1473 48 43.47 +4.53 74.0% 26 31 39 44 49 53 57
Vetra 1462 48 42.73 +5.27 76.0% 26 32 37 43 48 52 57
Atlantas 1341 28 32.26 -4.26 30.0% 18 23 27 32 37 42 49
Zalgiris 1323 28 38.73 -10.73 5.0% 19 28 33 39 44 49 53
FK Siauliai 1270 24 29.52 -5.52 16.0% 15 19 26 29 34 39 42
Silute 1175 13 15.76 -2.76 34.0% 7 8 12 15 19 24 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.82%
Clear Edge
42.86%24.11%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.23 Elo pts.
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Ekranas, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.02 * Some Luck: 5.02 to 7.52 * Lucky: 7.52 to 10.03 * Wild Swing: 10.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.59 * Close: 0.59 to 0.88 * Off: 0.88 to 1.17 * Way Off: 1.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.18 points
Some Luck
06.2716
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
00.731.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Ekranas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
5.00%
Zalgiris
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 159.66
2.55
Moderate Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
76%
Even
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
93%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.22
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.96
Near-Lock
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.19
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.104
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Ekranas19.00%51.00%20.00%8.00%1.00%—1.00%—
FBK Kaunas73.00%17.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%———
Suduva3.00%16.00%26.00%29.00%15.00%8.00%3.00%—
Vetra4.00%12.00%28.00%25.00%17.00%10.00%4.00%—
Atlantas—1.00%1.00%9.00%25.00%35.00%28.00%1.00%
Zalgiris1.00%3.00%17.00%24.00%31.00%14.00%10.00%—
FK Siauliai———4.00%10.00%32.00%51.00%3.00%
Silute—————1.00%3.00%96.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Ekranas 100% —
FBK Kaunas 100% —
Suduva 100% —
Vetra 100% —
Zalgiris 100% —
Atlantas 99.00% 1.00%
FK Siauliai 97.00% 3.00%
Silute 4.00% 96.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-03-29 Atlantas D 0-052.8 1436 1390 48.67% 25.05% 26.28%+0.48 -1.5 1
2008-03-29 @ Vetra D 0-052.8 1390 1436 26.28% 25.05% 48.67%-0.48 +1.5 1
2008-03-29 FK Siauliai W 1-040.1 1455 1345 56.16% 24.01% 19.82%+0.86 +6.4 3
2008-03-29 @ Ekranas L 0-140.1 1345 1455 19.82% 24.01% 56.16%-0.86 -6.4 0
2008-03-29 Silute W 3-029.5 1562 1222 75.63% 17.34% 7.02%+2.24 +6.0 3
2008-03-29 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-329.5 1222 1562 7.02% 17.34% 75.63%-2.24 -6.0 0
2008-03-29 Zalgiris D 0-053.8 1440 1425 44.68% 25.36% 29.96%+0.30 -1.0 1
2008-03-29 @ Suduva D 0-053.8 1425 1440 29.96% 25.36% 44.68%-0.30 +1.0 1
2008-04-06 Atlantas L 2-444.5 1216 1391 20.83% 24.23% 54.95%-0.84 -9.8 0
2008-04-06 @ Silute W 4-244.5 1391 1216 54.95% 24.23% 20.83%+0.84 +9.8 4
2008-04-06 Ekranas D 1-159.7 1426 1461 37.48% 25.57% 36.95%-0.01 -0.0 2
2008-04-06 @ Zalgiris D 1-159.7 1461 1426 36.95% 25.57% 37.48%+0.01 +0.0 4
2008-04-06 Suduva W 3-041.7 1568 1440 58.12% 23.62% 18.25%+0.97 +16.3 6
2008-04-06 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-341.7 1440 1568 18.25% 23.62% 58.12%-0.97 -16.3 1
2008-04-06 Vetra L 0-240.0 1338 1435 29.30% 25.32% 45.38%-0.37 -16.8 0
2008-04-06 @ FK Siauliai W 2-040.0 1435 1338 45.38% 25.32% 29.30%+0.37 +16.8 4
2008-04-12 FBK Kaunas W 1-057.2 1461 1585 26.15% 25.04% 48.81%-0.53 +13.3 7
2008-04-12 @ Ekranas L 0-157.2 1585 1461 48.81% 25.04% 26.15%+0.53 -13.3 6
2008-04-12 FK Siauliai L 0-148.7 1401 1321 52.66% 24.58% 22.76%+0.68 -14.2 4
2008-04-12 @ Atlantas W 1-048.7 1321 1401 22.76% 24.58% 52.66%-0.68 +14.2 3
2008-04-12 Silute W 2-140.7 1423 1206 66.42% 21.31% 12.27%+1.50 +3.8 4
2008-04-12 @ Suduva L 1-240.7 1206 1423 12.27% 21.31% 66.42%-1.50 -3.8 0
2008-04-12 Zalgiris D 1-159.4 1452 1425 46.03% 25.27% 28.70%+0.36 -1.0 5
2008-04-12 @ Vetra D 1-159.4 1425 1452 28.70% 25.27% 46.03%-0.36 +1.0 3
2008-04-20 Atlantas D 0-052.5 1426 1387 47.81% 25.13% 27.06%+0.44 -1.4 4
2008-04-20 @ Zalgiris D 0-052.5 1387 1426 27.06% 25.13% 47.81%-0.44 +1.4 5
2008-04-20 Ekranas W 2-155.2 1427 1475 35.80% 25.57% 38.63%-0.08 +10.4 7
2008-04-20 @ Suduva L 1-255.2 1475 1427 38.63% 25.57% 35.80%+0.08 -10.4 7
2008-04-20 FK Siauliai D 2-260.5 1203 1336 25.07% 24.91% 50.02%-0.59 +1.1 1
2008-04-20 @ Silute D 2-260.5 1336 1203 50.02% 24.91% 25.07%+0.59 -1.1 4
2008-04-20 Vetra L 1-264.6 1571 1451 57.28% 23.80% 18.93%+0.93 -14.4 6
2008-04-20 @ FBK Kaunas W 2-164.6 1451 1571 18.93% 23.80% 57.28%-0.93 +14.4 8
2008-04-27 FBK Kaunas D 1-162.0 1388 1557 21.38% 24.34% 54.28%-0.80 +2.0 6
2008-04-27 @ Atlantas D 1-162.0 1557 1388 54.28% 24.34% 21.38%+0.80 -2.0 7
2008-04-27 Silute W 4-029.0 1464 1204 69.96% 19.96% 10.07%+1.76 +11.7 10
2008-04-27 @ Ekranas L 0-429.0 1204 1464 10.07% 19.96% 69.96%-1.76 -11.7 1
2008-04-27 Suduva W 3-041.5 1465 1437 46.21% 25.26% 28.53%+0.37 +23.9 11
2008-04-27 @ Vetra L 0-341.5 1437 1465 28.53% 25.26% 46.21%-0.37 -23.9 7
2008-04-27 Zalgiris D 1-156.5 1334 1425 30.04% 25.37% 44.59%-0.34 +0.8 5
2008-04-27 @ FK Siauliai D 1-156.5 1425 1334 44.59% 25.37% 30.04%+0.34 -0.8 5
2008-05-04 Atlantas W 3-146.6 1414 1390 45.70% 25.30% 29.01%+0.35 +14.4 10
2008-05-04 @ Suduva L 1-346.6 1390 1414 29.01% 25.30% 45.70%-0.35 -14.4 6
2008-05-04 Ekranas L 0-152.9 1489 1476 44.27% 25.38% 30.34%+0.28 -12.3 11
2008-05-04 @ Vetra W 1-052.9 1476 1489 30.34% 25.38% 44.27%-0.28 +12.3 13
2008-05-04 FK Siauliai W 2-036.6 1555 1335 66.66% 21.23% 12.12%+1.52 +7.5 10
2008-05-04 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-236.6 1335 1555 12.12% 21.23% 66.66%-1.52 -7.5 5
2008-05-04 Zalgiris L 0-233.3 1192 1424 16.09% 22.96% 60.95%-1.18 -9.9 1
2008-05-04 @ Silute W 2-033.3 1424 1192 60.95% 22.96% 16.09%+1.18 +9.9 8
2008-05-11 Ekranas D 1-159.1 1376 1488 27.36% 25.16% 47.48%-0.47 +1.2 7
2008-05-11 @ Atlantas D 1-159.1 1488 1376 47.48% 25.16% 27.36%+0.47 -1.2 14
2008-05-11 FBK Kaunas L 0-245.6 1434 1562 25.59% 24.98% 49.43%-0.56 -15.0 8
2008-05-11 @ Zalgiris W 2-045.6 1562 1434 49.43% 24.98% 25.59%+0.56 +15.1 13
2008-05-11 Suduva L 0-142.3 1328 1428 28.86% 25.29% 45.86%-0.39 -8.8 5
2008-05-11 @ FK Siauliai W 1-042.3 1428 1328 45.86% 25.29% 28.86%+0.39 +8.8 13
2008-05-11 Vetra L 1-338.0 1182 1477 12.15% 21.25% 66.61%-1.55 -6.5 1
2008-05-11 @ Silute W 3-138.0 1477 1182 66.61% 21.25% 12.15%+1.55 +6.5 14
2008-05-14 Suduva L 0-148.0 1419 1437 40.07% 25.54% 34.39%+0.10 -11.3 8
2008-05-14 @ Zalgiris W 1-048.0 1437 1419 34.39% 25.54% 40.07%-0.10 +11.3 16
2008-05-24 Atlantas W 1-041.7 1487 1377 56.16% 24.01% 19.83%+0.86 +6.4 17
2008-05-24 @ Ekranas L 0-141.7 1377 1487 19.83% 24.01% 56.16%-0.86 -6.4 7
2008-05-24 FK Siauliai W 1-038.8 1448 1319 58.16% 23.61% 18.22%+0.98 +5.9 19
2008-05-24 @ Suduva L 0-138.8 1319 1448 18.22% 23.61% 58.16%-0.98 -5.9 5
2008-05-24 Silute W 2-138.9 1483 1176 73.42% 18.44% 8.15%+2.04 +2.4 17
2008-05-24 @ Vetra L 1-238.9 1176 1483 8.15% 18.44% 73.42%-2.04 -2.4 1
2008-05-24 Zalgiris W 2-041.3 1577 1408 62.18% 22.63% 15.19%+1.22 +9.4 16
2008-05-24 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-241.3 1408 1577 15.19% 22.63% 62.18%-1.22 -9.4 8
2008-06-08 FBK Kaunas D 0-055.9 1313 1587 13.34% 21.85% 64.82%-1.43 +3.7 6
2008-06-08 @ FK Siauliai D 0-055.9 1587 1313 64.82% 21.85% 13.34%+1.43 -3.6 17
2008-06-08 Silute D 1-155.8 1398 1173 67.13% 21.06% 11.81%+1.55 -3.5 9
2008-06-08 @ Zalgiris D 1-155.8 1173 1398 11.81% 21.06% 67.13%-1.55 +3.5 2
2008-06-08 Suduva L 0-144.4 1370 1454 30.92% 25.42% 43.66%-0.30 -9.3 7
2008-06-08 @ Atlantas W 1-044.4 1454 1370 43.66% 25.42% 30.92%+0.30 +9.3 22
2008-06-08 Vetra D 1-162.9 1493 1486 43.60% 25.42% 30.98%+0.25 -0.7 18
2008-06-08 @ Ekranas D 1-162.9 1486 1493 30.98% 25.42% 43.60%-0.25 +0.7 18
2008-06-11 FBK Kaunas L 0-629.4 1177 1583 7.32% 17.65% 75.03%-2.22 -12.0 2
2008-06-11 @ Silute W 6-029.4 1583 1177 75.03% 17.65% 7.32%+2.22 +12.0 20
2008-06-15 Atlantas W 4-036.4 1595 1361 67.87% 20.79% 11.35%+1.60 +13.2 23
2008-06-15 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-436.4 1361 1595 11.35% 20.79% 67.87%-1.60 -13.2 7
2008-06-15 Ekranas L 0-133.9 1165 1493 10.44% 20.22% 69.34%-1.75 -3.4 2
2008-06-15 @ Silute W 1-033.9 1493 1165 69.34% 20.22% 10.44%+1.75 +3.4 21
2008-06-15 FK Siauliai D 1-156.0 1395 1317 52.51% 24.60% 22.88%+0.67 -1.8 10
2008-06-15 @ Zalgiris D 1-156.0 1317 1395 22.88% 24.60% 52.51%-0.67 +1.8 7
2008-06-15 Vetra W 3-045.2 1463 1486 39.33% 25.56% 35.11%+0.07 +28.1 25
2008-06-15 @ Suduva L 0-345.2 1486 1463 35.11% 25.56% 39.33%-0.07 -28.1 18
2008-06-18 Silute W 4-026.9 1608 1161 81.91% 13.81% 4.28%+2.87 +4.4 26
2008-06-18 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-426.9 1161 1608 4.28% 13.81% 81.91%-2.87 -4.4 2
2008-06-22 FBK Kaunas D 1-166.6 1458 1613 22.78% 24.58% 52.64%-0.72 +1.8 19
2008-06-22 @ Vetra D 1-166.6 1613 1458 52.64% 24.58% 22.78%+0.72 -1.8 27
2008-06-22 Silute W 3-030.8 1318 1157 61.41% 22.84% 15.75%+1.17 +14.1 10
2008-06-22 @ FK Siauliai L 0-330.8 1157 1318 15.75% 22.84% 61.41%-1.17 -14.1 2
2008-06-22 Zalgiris D 2-262.2 1348 1393 36.12% 25.57% 38.31%-0.07 +0.1 8
2008-06-22 @ Atlantas D 2-262.2 1393 1348 38.31% 25.57% 36.12%+0.07 -0.1 11
2008-06-29 Atlantas D 1-155.3 1333 1348 40.41% 25.54% 34.05%+0.11 -0.4 11
2008-06-29 @ FK Siauliai D 1-155.3 1348 1333 34.05% 25.54% 40.41%-0.11 +0.4 9
2008-06-29 Suduva D 1-156.7 1143 1491 9.51% 19.56% 70.93%-1.88 +4.0 3
2008-06-29 @ Silute D 1-156.7 1491 1143 70.93% 19.56% 9.51%+1.88 -4.0 26
2008-06-29 Vetra W 1-048.3 1393 1460 33.14% 25.51% 41.35%-0.20 +11.6 14
2008-06-29 @ Zalgiris L 0-148.3 1460 1393 41.35% 25.51% 33.14%+0.20 -11.6 19
2008-07-06 FBK Kaunas D 0-062.1 1487 1611 26.11% 25.03% 48.86%-0.53 +1.5 27
2008-07-06 @ Suduva D 0-062.1 1611 1487 48.86% 25.03% 26.11%+0.53 -1.5 28
2008-07-06 FK Siauliai D 2-263.4 1448 1332 56.78% 23.90% 19.33%+0.90 -1.7 20
2008-07-06 @ Vetra D 2-263.4 1332 1448 19.33% 23.90% 56.78%-0.90 +1.7 12
2008-07-06 Silute W 2-031.5 1348 1147 65.09% 21.76% 13.15%+1.41 +8.1 12
2008-07-06 @ Atlantas L 0-231.5 1147 1348 13.15% 21.76% 65.09%-1.41 -8.2 3
2008-07-09 Suduva W 1-049.6 1610 1489 57.26% 23.80% 18.94%+0.92 +6.1 31
2008-07-09 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-149.6 1489 1610 18.94% 23.80% 57.26%-0.92 -6.1 27
2008-07-13 Vetra W 1-048.0 1356 1447 30.09% 25.37% 44.54%-0.33 +12.3 15
2008-07-13 @ Atlantas L 0-148.0 1447 1356 44.54% 25.37% 30.09%+0.33 -12.3 20
2008-07-19 Zalgiris W 1-043.5 1496 1405 54.05% 24.37% 21.57%+0.75 +6.9 24
2008-07-19 @ Ekranas L 0-143.5 1405 1496 21.57% 24.37% 54.05%-0.75 -6.9 14
2008-07-23 Atlantas W 2-147.9 1434 1369 51.02% 24.80% 24.19%+0.60 +7.2 23
2008-07-23 @ Vetra L 1-247.9 1369 1434 24.19% 24.80% 51.02%-0.60 -7.2 15
2008-07-23 FK Siauliai D 1-159.1 1503 1334 62.13% 22.65% 15.22%+1.21 -3.0 25
2008-07-23 @ Ekranas D 1-159.1 1334 1503 15.22% 22.65% 62.13%-1.21 +3.0 13
2008-07-23 Zalgiris D 1-159.8 1483 1398 53.32% 24.49% 22.19%+0.71 -1.9 28
2008-07-23 @ Suduva D 1-159.8 1398 1483 22.19% 24.49% 53.32%-0.71 +1.9 15
2008-08-03 Atlantas L 1-241.9 1139 1361 16.78% 23.19% 60.03%-1.13 -5.2 3
2008-08-03 @ Silute W 2-141.9 1361 1139 60.03% 23.19% 16.78%+1.13 +5.2 18
2008-08-03 Ekranas L 0-145.9 1400 1500 28.83% 25.28% 45.89%-0.40 -8.8 15
2008-08-03 @ Zalgiris W 1-045.9 1500 1400 45.89% 25.28% 28.83%+0.40 +8.8 28
2008-08-06 Vetra W 2-045.2 1337 1442 28.33% 25.24% 46.43%-0.42 +24.0 16
2008-08-06 @ FK Siauliai L 0-245.2 1442 1337 46.43% 25.24% 28.33%+0.42 -24.0 23
2008-08-10 FK Siauliai L 1-252.4 1367 1361 43.30% 25.43% 31.27%+0.24 -11.4 18
2008-08-10 @ Atlantas W 2-152.4 1361 1367 31.27% 25.43% 43.30%-0.24 +11.3 19
2008-08-10 Silute W 4-026.6 1481 1133 76.11% 17.10% 6.79%+2.28 +7.5 31
2008-08-10 @ Suduva L 0-426.6 1133 1481 6.79% 17.10% 76.11%-2.28 -7.5 3
2008-08-10 Zalgiris W 1-043.3 1417 1391 46.10% 25.27% 28.63%+0.36 +8.8 26
2008-08-10 @ Vetra L 0-143.3 1391 1417 28.63% 25.27% 46.10%-0.36 -8.8 15
2008-08-16 Ekranas L 0-241.2 1372 1509 24.67% 24.86% 50.47%-0.61 -14.6 19
2008-08-16 @ FK Siauliai W 2-041.2 1509 1372 50.47% 24.86% 24.67%+0.61 +14.6 31
2008-08-24 Atlantas W 5-140.5 1382 1355 46.12% 25.27% 28.62%+0.36 +26.1 18
2008-08-24 @ Zalgiris L 1-540.5 1355 1382 28.62% 25.27% 46.12%-0.36 -26.1 18
2008-08-24 Ekranas D 0-058.9 1488 1523 37.61% 25.57% 36.82%+0.00 -0.0 32
2008-08-24 @ Suduva D 0-058.9 1523 1488 36.82% 25.57% 37.61%+0.00 +0.0 32
2008-08-24 FK Siauliai W 2-046.1 1126 1358 16.12% 22.97% 60.91%-1.18 +30.4 6
2008-08-24 @ Silute L 0-246.1 1358 1126 60.91% 22.97% 16.12%+1.18 -30.4 19
2008-08-31 FBK Kaunas L 1-247.6 1329 1616 12.59% 21.48% 65.93%-1.51 -3.9 18
2008-08-31 @ Atlantas W 2-147.6 1616 1329 65.93% 21.48% 12.59%+1.51 +3.9 34
2008-08-31 Silute W 1-031.7 1524 1156 77.36% 16.44% 6.21%+2.40 +1.9 35
2008-08-31 @ Ekranas L 0-131.7 1156 1524 6.21% 16.44% 77.36%-2.40 -1.9 6
2008-08-31 Zalgiris L 0-240.0 1327 1408 31.30% 25.44% 43.27%-0.28 -17.7 19
2008-08-31 @ FK Siauliai W 2-040.0 1408 1327 43.27% 25.44% 31.30%+0.28 +17.7 21
2008-09-03 Suduva W 2-047.3 1426 1488 33.78% 25.53% 40.70%-0.17 +21.6 29
2008-09-03 @ Vetra L 0-247.3 1488 1426 40.70% 25.53% 33.78%+0.17 -21.6 32
2008-09-14 Atlantas W 3-250.0 1467 1325 59.43% 23.33% 17.24%+1.05 +5.0 35
2008-09-14 @ Suduva L 2-350.0 1325 1467 17.24% 23.33% 59.43%-1.05 -5.0 18
2008-09-14 Ekranas L 0-246.7 1448 1525 31.72% 25.46% 42.82%-0.26 -17.9 29
2008-09-14 @ Vetra W 2-046.7 1525 1448 42.82% 25.46% 31.72%+0.26 +17.9 38
2008-09-14 FK Siauliai W 1-038.6 1620 1310 73.60% 18.35% 8.05%+2.06 +2.6 37
2008-09-14 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-138.6 1310 1620 8.05% 18.35% 73.60%-2.06 -2.5 19
2008-09-14 Zalgiris L 1-240.9 1154 1426 13.48% 21.91% 64.61%-1.42 -4.2 6
2008-09-14 @ Silute W 2-140.9 1426 1154 64.61% 21.91% 13.48%+1.42 +4.2 24
2008-09-17 Suduva W 1-048.3 1543 1472 51.71% 24.71% 23.58%+0.63 +7.5 41
2008-09-17 @ Ekranas L 0-148.3 1472 1543 23.58% 24.71% 51.71%-0.63 -7.4 35
2008-09-21 Ekranas L 0-140.6 1320 1551 16.22% 23.00% 60.78%-1.17 -5.3 18
2008-09-21 @ Atlantas W 1-040.6 1551 1320 60.78% 23.00% 16.22%+1.17 +5.3 44
2008-09-21 FK Siauliai W 3-033.6 1464 1307 61.01% 22.95% 16.05%+1.14 +14.4 38
2008-09-21 @ Suduva L 0-333.6 1307 1464 16.05% 22.95% 61.01%-1.14 -14.4 19
2008-09-21 Vetra L 0-134.5 1150 1430 12.99% 21.68% 65.34%-1.47 -4.3 6
2008-09-21 @ Silute W 1-034.5 1430 1150 65.34% 21.68% 12.99%+1.47 +4.3 32
2008-09-23 FBK Kaunas D 1-166.1 1430 1622 19.27% 23.88% 56.84%-0.94 +2.3 25
2008-09-23 @ Zalgiris D 1-166.1 1622 1430 56.84% 23.88% 19.27%+0.94 -2.3 38
2008-09-28 Atlantas W 3-033.8 1556 1315 68.43% 20.58% 11.00%+1.64 +9.8 47
2008-09-28 @ Ekranas L 0-333.8 1315 1556 11.00% 20.58% 68.43%-1.64 -9.8 18
2008-09-28 Silute W 4-027.6 1434 1146 72.04% 19.07% 8.89%+1.93 +10.2 35
2008-09-28 @ Vetra L 0-427.6 1146 1434 8.89% 19.07% 72.04%-1.93 -10.2 6
2008-09-28 Suduva L 0-236.7 1293 1479 19.79% 24.01% 56.20%-0.91 -12.1 19
2008-09-28 @ FK Siauliai W 2-036.7 1479 1293 56.20% 24.01% 19.79%+0.91 +12.0 41
2008-09-28 Zalgiris W 5-041.5 1620 1432 63.84% 22.15% 14.00%+1.32 +20.3 41
2008-09-28 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-541.5 1432 1620 14.00% 22.15% 63.84%-1.32 -20.3 25
2008-10-05 FBK Kaunas D 0-057.4 1281 1640 9.06% 19.20% 71.74%-1.94 +4.5 20
2008-10-05 @ FK Siauliai D 0-057.4 1640 1281 71.74% 19.20% 9.06%+1.94 -4.5 42
2008-10-05 Silute L 0-248.4 1412 1136 71.15% 19.46% 9.39%+1.85 -34.7 25
2008-10-05 @ Zalgiris W 2-048.4 1136 1412 9.39% 19.46% 71.15%-1.85 +34.7 9
2008-10-05 Suduva W 1-050.9 1305 1491 19.84% 24.02% 56.15%-0.90 +15.0 21
2008-10-05 @ Atlantas L 0-150.9 1491 1305 56.15% 24.02% 19.84%+0.90 -15.0 41
2008-10-05 Vetra L 0-158.0 1566 1444 57.36% 23.78% 18.86%+0.93 -15.3 47
2008-10-05 @ Ekranas W 1-058.0 1444 1566 18.86% 23.78% 57.36%-0.93 +15.3 38
2008-10-19 Atlantas W 2-036.7 1636 1320 73.97% 18.17% 7.86%+2.09 +4.7 45
2008-10-19 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-236.7 1320 1636 7.86% 18.17% 73.97%-2.09 -4.7 21
2008-10-19 Ekranas L 0-329.1 1171 1551 8.25% 18.53% 73.22%-2.07 -7.2 9
2008-10-19 @ Silute W 3-029.1 1551 1171 73.22% 18.53% 8.25%+2.07 +7.2 50
2008-10-19 FK Siauliai L 2-455.0 1377 1285 54.14% 24.36% 21.50%+0.76 -21.2 25
2008-10-19 @ Zalgiris W 4-255.0 1285 1377 21.50% 24.36% 54.14%-0.76 +21.2 23
2008-10-19 Vetra D 0-056.1 1476 1460 44.71% 25.36% 29.93%+0.30 -0.9 42
2008-10-19 @ Suduva D 0-056.1 1460 1476 29.93% 25.36% 44.71%-0.30 +1.0 39
2008-10-22 Ekranas L 0-358.4 1640 1558 53.02% 24.53% 22.45%+0.70 -39.1 45
2008-10-22 @ FBK Kaunas W 3-058.4 1558 1640 22.45% 24.53% 53.02%-0.70 +39.1 53
2008-10-26 Silute L 0-148.5 1306 1163 59.58% 23.30% 17.12%+1.06 -15.8 23
2008-10-26 @ FK Siauliai W 1-048.5 1163 1306 17.12% 23.30% 59.58%-1.06 +15.8 12
2008-10-26 Suduva W 2-154.9 1597 1475 57.41% 23.77% 18.82%+0.93 +5.8 56
2008-10-26 @ Ekranas L 1-254.9 1475 1597 18.82% 23.77% 57.41%-0.93 -5.8 42
2008-10-26 Zalgiris W 3-039.4 1316 1356 36.80% 25.57% 37.63%-0.04 +29.6 24
2008-10-26 @ Atlantas L 0-339.4 1356 1316 37.63% 25.57% 36.80%+0.04 -29.6 25
2008-10-29 FBK Kaunas L 0-247.5 1461 1601 24.24% 24.80% 50.96%-0.63 -14.4 39
2008-10-29 @ Vetra W 2-047.5 1601 1461 50.96% 24.80% 24.24%+0.63 +14.4 48
2008-11-02 Atlantas D 4-465.6 1290 1345 34.83% 25.55% 39.62%-0.12 +0.1 24
2008-11-02 @ FK Siauliai D 4-465.6 1345 1290 39.62% 25.55% 34.83%+0.12 -0.1 25
2008-11-02 Ekranas W 2-054.0 1616 1603 44.28% 25.38% 30.33%+0.28 +17.3 51
2008-11-02 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-254.0 1603 1616 30.33% 25.38% 44.28%-0.28 -17.3 56
2008-11-02 Suduva L 1-240.9 1179 1469 12.40% 21.38% 66.23%-1.53 -3.8 12
2008-11-02 @ Silute W 2-140.9 1469 1179 66.23% 21.38% 12.40%+1.53 +3.8 45
2008-11-02 Vetra W 1-048.4 1327 1446 26.55% 25.08% 48.37%-0.51 +13.2 28
2008-11-02 @ Zalgiris L 0-148.4 1446 1327 48.37% 25.08% 26.55%+0.51 -13.2 39
2008-11-05 FBK Kaunas W 2-165.4 1585 1633 35.82% 25.57% 38.62%-0.08 +10.4 59
2008-11-05 @ Ekranas L 1-265.4 1633 1585 38.62% 25.57% 35.82%+0.08 -10.4 51
2008-11-09 FBK Kaunas L 1-257.3 1473 1622 23.30% 24.67% 52.03%-0.69 -7.0 45
2008-11-09 @ Suduva W 2-157.3 1622 1473 52.03% 24.67% 23.30%+0.69 +7.0 54
2008-11-09 FK Siauliai W 1-037.7 1433 1291 59.52% 23.31% 17.17%+1.05 +5.6 42
2008-11-09 @ Vetra L 0-137.7 1291 1433 17.17% 23.31% 59.52%-1.05 -5.6 24
2008-11-09 Silute W 2-141.3 1345 1175 62.18% 22.63% 15.18%+1.22 +4.7 28
2008-11-09 @ Atlantas L 1-241.3 1175 1345 15.18% 22.63% 62.18%-1.22 -4.7 12
2008-11-09 Zalgiris W 5-138.6 1596 1340 69.61% 20.11% 10.28%+1.73 +9.9 62
2008-11-09 @ Ekranas L 1-538.6 1340 1596 10.28% 20.11% 69.61%-1.73 -10.0 28
2008-11-12 Vetra L 2-372.7 1629 1439 64.14% 22.06% 13.80%+1.34 -15.1 54
2008-11-12 @ FBK Kaunas W 3-272.7 1439 1629 13.80% 22.06% 64.14%-1.34 +15.1 45
2008-11-16 Ekranas L 0-534.2 1285 1606 10.79% 20.45% 68.76%-1.71 -15.5 24
2008-11-16 @ FK Siauliai W 5-034.2 1606 1285 68.76% 20.45% 10.79%+1.71 +15.5 65
2008-11-16 FBK Kaunas D 1-159.7 1171 1614 6.18% 16.40% 77.42%-2.44 +4.5 13
2008-11-16 @ Silute D 1-159.7 1614 1171 77.42% 16.40% 6.18%+2.44 -4.5 55
2008-11-16 Suduva L 2-352.8 1330 1466 24.71% 24.87% 50.43%-0.61 -6.9 28
2008-11-16 @ Zalgiris W 3-252.8 1466 1330 50.43% 24.87% 24.71%+0.61 +6.9 48
2008-11-16 Vetra L 0-143.1 1350 1454 28.38% 25.25% 46.37%-0.42 -8.7 28
2008-11-16 @ Atlantas W 1-043.1 1454 1350 46.37% 25.25% 28.38%+0.42 +8.7 48

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2008-10-05 9.39% Silute 1136 2 @ Zalgiris 1412 0
2 2008-11-12 13.80% Vetra 1439 3 @ FBK Kaunas 1629 2
3 2008-08-24 16.12% @ Silute 1126 2 FK Siauliai 1358 0
4 2008-10-26 17.12% Silute 1163 1 @ FK Siauliai 1306 0
5 2008-10-05 18.86% Vetra 1444 1 @ Ekranas 1566 0
6 2008-04-20 18.93% Vetra 1451 2 @ FBK Kaunas 1571 1
7 2008-10-05 19.84% @ Atlantas 1305 1 Suduva 1491 0
8 2008-10-19 21.50% FK Siauliai 1285 4 @ Zalgiris 1377 2
9 2008-10-22 22.45% Ekranas 1558 3 @ FBK Kaunas 1640 0
10 2008-04-12 22.76% FK Siauliai 1321 1 @ Atlantas 1401 0
11 2008-04-12 26.15% @ Ekranas 1461 1 FBK Kaunas 1585 0
12 2008-11-02 26.55% @ Zalgiris 1327 1 Vetra 1446 0
13 2008-08-06 28.33% @ FK Siauliai 1337 2 Vetra 1442 0
14 2008-07-13 30.09% @ Atlantas 1356 1 Vetra 1447 0
15 2008-05-04 30.34% Ekranas 1476 1 @ Vetra 1489 0
16 2008-08-10 31.27% FK Siauliai 1361 2 @ Atlantas 1367 1
17 2008-06-29 33.14% @ Zalgiris 1393 1 Vetra 1460 0
18 2008-09-03 33.78% @ Vetra 1426 2 Suduva 1488 0
19 2008-05-14 34.39% Suduva 1437 1 @ Zalgiris 1419 0
20 2008-04-20 35.80% @ Suduva 1427 2 Ekranas 1475 1
21 2008-11-05 35.82% @ Ekranas 1585 2 FBK Kaunas 1633 1
22 2008-10-26 36.80% @ Atlantas 1316 3 Zalgiris 1356 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-10-22 39.09 Ekranas 3 1558 22.45% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1640 53.02% 24.53%
2 2008-10-05 34.69 Silute 2 1136 9.39% @ Zalgiris 0 1412 71.15% 19.46%
3 2008-08-24 30.43 @ Silute 2 1126 16.12% FK Siauliai 0 1358 60.91% 22.97%
4 2008-10-26 29.58 @ Atlantas 3 1316 36.80% Zalgiris 0 1356 37.63% 25.57%
5 2008-06-15 28.08 @ Suduva 3 1463 39.33% Vetra 0 1486 35.11% 25.56%
6 2008-08-24 26.08 @ Zalgiris 5 1382 46.12% Atlantas 1 1355 28.62% 25.27%
7 2008-08-06 24.04 @ FK Siauliai 2 1337 28.33% Vetra 0 1442 46.43% 25.24%
8 2008-04-27 23.89 @ Vetra 3 1465 46.21% Suduva 0 1437 28.53% 25.26%
9 2008-09-03 21.62 @ Vetra 2 1426 33.78% Suduva 0 1488 40.70% 25.53%
10 2008-10-19 21.24 FK Siauliai 4 1285 21.50% @ Zalgiris 2 1377 54.14% 24.36%
11 2008-09-28 20.29 @ FBK Kaunas 5 1620 63.84% Zalgiris 0 1432 14.00% 22.15%
12 2008-09-14 17.89 Ekranas 2 1525 42.82% @ Vetra 0 1448 31.72% 25.46%
13 2008-08-31 17.71 Zalgiris 2 1408 43.27% @ FK Siauliai 0 1327 31.30% 25.44%
14 2008-11-02 17.27 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1616 44.28% Ekranas 0 1603 30.33% 25.38%
15 2008-04-06 16.80 Vetra 2 1435 45.38% @ FK Siauliai 0 1338 29.30% 25.32%
16 2008-04-06 16.26 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1568 58.12% Suduva 0 1440 18.25% 23.62%
17 2008-10-26 15.83 Silute 1 1163 17.12% @ FK Siauliai 0 1306 59.58% 23.30%
18 2008-11-16 15.50 Ekranas 5 1606 68.76% @ FK Siauliai 0 1285 10.79% 20.45%
19 2008-10-05 15.31 Vetra 1 1444 18.86% @ Ekranas 0 1566 57.36% 23.78%
20 2008-11-12 15.11 Vetra 3 1439 13.80% @ FBK Kaunas 2 1629 64.14% 22.06%
21 2008-05-11 15.06 FBK Kaunas 2 1562 49.43% @ Zalgiris 0 1434 25.59% 24.98%
22 2008-10-05 15.02 @ Atlantas 1 1305 19.84% Suduva 0 1491 56.15% 24.02%
23 2008-08-16 14.60 Ekranas 2 1509 50.47% @ FK Siauliai 0 1372 24.67% 24.86%
24 2008-05-04 14.44 @ Suduva 3 1414 45.70% Atlantas 1 1390 29.01% 25.30%
25 2008-04-20 14.41 Vetra 2 1451 18.93% @ FBK Kaunas 1 1571 57.28% 23.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-11-12 72.7 Vetra 3 1439 13.80% @ FBK Kaunas 2 1629 64.14% 22.06%
2 2008-06-22 66.6 @ Vetra 1 1458 22.78% FBK Kaunas 1 1613 52.64% 24.58%
3 2008-09-23 66.1 @ Zalgiris 1 1430 19.27% FBK Kaunas 1 1622 56.84% 23.88%
4 2008-11-02 65.6 @ FK Siauliai 4 1290 34.83% Atlantas 4 1345 39.62% 25.55%
5 2008-11-05 65.4 @ Ekranas 2 1585 35.82% FBK Kaunas 1 1633 38.62% 25.57%
6 2008-04-20 64.6 Vetra 2 1451 18.93% @ FBK Kaunas 1 1571 57.28% 23.80%
7 2008-07-06 63.4 @ Vetra 2 1448 56.78% FK Siauliai 2 1332 19.33% 23.90%
8 2008-06-08 62.9 @ Ekranas 1 1493 43.60% Vetra 1 1486 30.98% 25.42%
9 2008-06-22 62.2 @ Atlantas 2 1348 36.12% Zalgiris 2 1393 38.31% 25.57%
10 2008-07-06 62.1 @ Suduva 0 1487 26.11% FBK Kaunas 0 1611 48.86% 25.03%
11 2008-04-27 62.0 @ Atlantas 1 1388 21.38% FBK Kaunas 1 1557 54.28% 24.34%
12 2008-04-20 60.5 @ Silute 2 1203 25.07% FK Siauliai 2 1336 50.02% 24.91%
13 2008-07-23 59.8 @ Suduva 1 1483 53.32% Zalgiris 1 1398 22.19% 24.49%
14 2008-04-06 59.7 @ Zalgiris 1 1426 37.48% Ekranas 1 1461 36.95% 25.57%
15 2008-11-16 59.7 @ Silute 1 1171 6.18% FBK Kaunas 1 1614 77.42% 16.40%
16 2008-04-12 59.4 @ Vetra 1 1452 46.03% Zalgiris 1 1425 28.70% 25.27%
17 2008-05-11 59.1 @ Atlantas 1 1376 27.36% Ekranas 1 1488 47.48% 25.16%
18 2008-07-23 59.1 @ Ekranas 1 1503 62.13% FK Siauliai 1 1334 15.22% 22.65%
19 2008-08-24 58.9 @ Suduva 0 1488 37.61% Ekranas 0 1523 36.82% 25.57%
20 2008-10-22 58.4 Ekranas 3 1558 22.45% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1640 53.02% 24.53%
21 2008-10-05 58.0 Vetra 1 1444 18.86% @ Ekranas 0 1566 57.36% 23.78%
22 2008-10-05 57.4 @ FK Siauliai 0 1281 9.06% FBK Kaunas 0 1640 71.74% 19.20%
23 2008-11-09 57.3 FBK Kaunas 2 1622 52.03% @ Suduva 1 1473 23.30% 24.67%
24 2008-04-12 57.2 @ Ekranas 1 1461 26.15% FBK Kaunas 0 1585 48.81% 25.04%
25 2008-06-29 56.7 @ Silute 1 1143 9.51% Suduva 1 1491 70.93% 19.56%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-08-10 26.6 @ Suduva 4 1481 76.11% Silute 0 1133 6.79% 17.10%
2 2008-06-18 26.9 @ FBK Kaunas 4 1608 81.91% Silute 0 1161 4.28% 13.81%
3 2008-09-28 27.6 @ Vetra 4 1434 72.04% Silute 0 1146 8.89% 19.07%
4 2008-04-27 29.0 @ Ekranas 4 1464 69.96% Silute 0 1204 10.07% 19.96%
5 2008-10-19 29.1 Ekranas 3 1551 73.22% @ Silute 0 1171 8.25% 18.53%
6 2008-06-11 29.4 FBK Kaunas 6 1583 75.03% @ Silute 0 1177 7.32% 17.65%
7 2008-03-29 29.5 @ FBK Kaunas 3 1562 75.63% Silute 0 1222 7.02% 17.34%
8 2008-06-22 30.8 @ FK Siauliai 3 1318 61.41% Silute 0 1157 15.75% 22.84%
9 2008-07-06 31.5 @ Atlantas 2 1348 65.09% Silute 0 1147 13.15% 21.76%
10 2008-08-31 31.7 @ Ekranas 1 1524 77.36% Silute 0 1156 6.21% 16.44%
11 2008-05-04 33.3 Zalgiris 2 1424 60.95% @ Silute 0 1192 16.09% 22.96%
12 2008-09-21 33.6 @ Suduva 3 1464 61.01% FK Siauliai 0 1307 16.05% 22.95%
13 2008-09-28 33.8 @ Ekranas 3 1556 68.43% Atlantas 0 1315 11.00% 20.58%
14 2008-06-15 33.9 Ekranas 1 1493 69.34% @ Silute 0 1165 10.44% 20.22%
15 2008-11-16 34.2 Ekranas 5 1606 68.76% @ FK Siauliai 0 1285 10.79% 20.45%
16 2008-09-21 34.5 Vetra 1 1430 65.34% @ Silute 0 1150 12.99% 21.68%
17 2008-06-15 36.4 @ FBK Kaunas 4 1595 67.87% Atlantas 0 1361 11.35% 20.79%
18 2008-05-04 36.6 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1555 66.66% FK Siauliai 0 1335 12.12% 21.23%
19 2008-09-28 36.7 Suduva 2 1479 56.20% @ FK Siauliai 0 1293 19.79% 24.01%
20 2008-10-19 36.7 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1636 73.97% Atlantas 0 1320 7.86% 18.17%
21 2008-11-09 37.7 @ Vetra 1 1433 59.52% FK Siauliai 0 1291 17.17% 23.31%
22 2008-05-11 38.0 Vetra 3 1477 66.61% @ Silute 1 1182 12.15% 21.25%
23 2008-09-14 38.6 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1620 73.60% FK Siauliai 0 1310 8.05% 18.35%
24 2008-11-09 38.6 @ Ekranas 5 1596 69.61% Zalgiris 1 1340 10.28% 20.11%
25 2008-05-24 38.8 @ Suduva 1 1448 58.16% FK Siauliai 0 1319 18.22% 23.61%