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2017 A Lyga Season

127 games

Final

Champion

Suduva

59 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Suduva

9.90 points above expected

59 points · 49.10 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Atlantas

9.66 points below expected

33 points · 42.66 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Suduva 28 17 8 3 59 65 28 +37 49.10 +9.90
2 Zalgiris 28 17 7 4 58 51 22 +29 58.00 +0.00
3 Trakai 28 15 9 4 54 45 22 +23 52.97 +1.03
4 Atlantas 28 8 9 11 33 33 33 0 42.66 -9.66
5 Utenis Utena 28 8 8 12 32 24 41 -17 28.33 +3.67
6 Jonava 28 8 7 13 31 29 45 -16 29.08 +1.92
7 Stumbras 28 4 10 14 22 23 42 -19 28.17 -6.17
8 Kauno Zalgiris 28 3 6 19 15 19 56 -37 19.80 -4.80
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Suduva 5 4 0 1 12 8 3 +5 68.93 -56.93
2 Trakai 5 3 1 1 10 8 5 +3 62.74 -52.74
3 Zalgiris 5 3 0 2 9 11 9 +2 67.09 -58.09
4 Jonava 5 2 1 2 7 11 8 +3 34.84 -27.84
5 Atlantas 5 0 3 2 3 6 10 -4 38.45 -35.45
6 Utenis Utena 5 0 1 4 1 6 15 -9 36.15 -35.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Suduva 59 49.10 +9.90
2 Utenis Utena 32 28.33 +3.67
3 Jonava 31 29.08 +1.92
4 Trakai 54 52.97 +1.03
5 Zalgiris 58 58.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atlantas 33 42.66 -9.66
2 Stumbras 22 28.17 -6.17
3 Kauno Zalgiris 15 19.80 -4.80
4 Zalgiris 58 58.00 +0.00
5 Trakai 54 52.97 +1.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 9 Sep 13 – Oct 22 1 in 561
2 Zalgiris 9 Mar 16 – May 10 1 in 85
3 Kauno Zalgiris 2 Jun 20 – Jul 22 1 in 22
4 Utenis Utena 2 Apr 30 – May 3 1 in 16
5 Jonava 2 May 17 – May 23 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jonava 5 Apr 5 – Apr 29 1 in 32
2 Kauno Zalgiris 6 Apr 26 – May 23 1 in 27
3 Atlantas 2 May 10 – May 17 1 in 16
4 Trakai 2 Sep 13 – Sep 16 1 in 15
5 Stumbras 4 Sep 20 – Oct 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kauno Zalgiris 6 Jun 1 – Aug 3 1 in 434
2 Suduva 11 Aug 6 – Oct 22 1 in 30
3 Trakai 12 May 10 – Aug 22 1 in 22
4 Stumbras 5 May 11 – Jun 14 1 in 19
5 Jonava 4 Mar 4 – Apr 1 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 12 Apr 30 – Aug 10 1 in 798
2 Zalgiris 3 May 16 – Jun 1 1 in 21
3 Suduva 5 May 24 – Jul 23 1 in 20
4 Kauno Zalgiris 13 Mar 11 – May 23 1 in 12
5 Stumbras 7 Jun 14 – Aug 13 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Suduva 1384 71 +24 12 9.9 +2.1
Zalgiris 1297 67 -22 9 9.3 -0.3
Trakai 1310 64 +11 10 8.9 +1.1
Jonava 1084 38 +52 7 4.3 +2.7
Atlantas 1107 36 -20 3 5.1 -2.1
Utenis Utena 1003 33 -45 1 3.8 -2.8
Stumbras 975 22 -50 1 4.7 -3.7
Kauno Zalgiris 903 15 -37 0 2.9 -2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL JON KZ STU SUD TRA UU ZAL
Atlantas —
1-0-3
7.35
3-1-0
8.30
3-1-0
7.39
0-3-1
4.58
0-1-3
4.16
1-2-1
7.55
0-1-3
3.24
Jonava
3-0-1
3.56
—
3-0-1
6.96
0-2-2
5.75
0-2-2
2.95
0-2-2
2.58
2-1-1
5.71
0-0-4
2.09
Kauno Zalgiris
0-1-3
2.70
1-0-3
3.91
—
1-1-2
4.22
0-0-4
1.79
0-1-3
1.73
0-2-2
4.12
1-1-2
1.43
Stumbras
0-1-3
3.51
2-2-0
5.09
2-1-1
6.65
—
0-0-4
2.92
0-2-2
2.50
0-3-1
5.26
0-1-3
1.87
Suduva
1-3-0
6.28
2-2-0
8.02
4-0-0
9.41
4-0-0
8.05
—
2-1-1
4.52
3-0-1
8.15
1-2-1
3.99
Trakai
3-1-0
6.71
2-2-0
8.45
3-1-0
9.49
2-2-0
8.53
1-1-2
6.32
—
3-0-1
8.57
1-2-1
4.30
Utenis Utena
1-2-1
3.36
1-1-2
5.13
2-2-0
6.74
1-3-0
5.57
1-0-3
2.83
1-0-3
2.47
—
1-0-3
1.95
Zalgiris
3-1-0
7.69
4-0-0
9.03
2-1-1
9.88
3-1-0
9.31
1-2-1
6.90
1-2-1
6.57
3-0-1
9.21
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +9.9
Allowed 0.85 -13.0
Differential 0.96 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.09%10.63%3.54%3.94%0.79%1.57%27.56%
110.63%15.75%5.91%3.94%1.97%1.18%39.37%
23.54%5.91%3.94%0.79%1.18%0.79%16.14%
33.94%3.94%0.79%0.79%——9.45%
40.79%1.97%1.18%———3.94%
5+1.57%1.18%0.79%———3.54%
Total27.56%39.37%16.14%9.45%3.94%3.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.92
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 127

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%18.18%3.03%6.06%——30.30%
16.06%21.21%9.09%—3.03%—39.39%
23.03%—12.12%———15.15%
36.06%3.03%3.03%———12.12%
4—3.03%————3.03%
5+———————
Total18.18%45.45%27.27%6.06%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.30 -0.12
SD 1.10 0.95 1.56
CV 0.93 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%6.06%——6.06%30.30%
19.09%9.09%15.15%6.06%3.03%—42.42%
2—9.09%3.03%———12.12%
33.03%3.03%—3.03%——9.09%
4——3.03%———3.03%
5+——3.03%———3.03%
Total21.21%30.30%30.30%9.09%3.03%6.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.61 -0.39
SD 1.24 1.34 1.85
CV 1.03 0.84 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%7.14%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
17.14%14.29%7.14%14.29%3.57%7.14%53.57%
23.57%————3.57%7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%32.14%14.29%17.86%3.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.00 -1.32
SD 0.61 1.66 1.63
CV 0.90 0.83 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%3.57%7.14%——39.29%
13.57%21.43%3.57%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
23.57%3.57%—3.57%3.57%—14.29%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%39.29%7.14%17.86%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.50 -0.68
SD 0.82 1.35 1.49
CV 1.00 0.90 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%6.06%3.03%———15.15%
13.03%15.15%—3.03%——21.21%
29.09%15.15%————24.24%
36.06%6.06%3.03%3.03%——18.18%
4—3.03%6.06%———9.09%
5+6.06%6.06%————12.12%
Total30.30%51.52%12.12%6.06%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.94 +1.27
SD 1.58 0.83 1.77
CV 0.71 0.88 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
121.21%15.15%———3.03%39.39%
26.06%6.06%6.06%3.03%——21.21%
33.03%6.06%————9.09%
43.03%6.06%————9.09%
5+—3.03%————3.03%
Total42.42%45.45%6.06%3.03%—3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.82 +0.79
SD 1.32 1.04 1.62
CV 0.82 1.28 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%6.06%3.03%9.09%6.06%3.03%33.33%
118.18%15.15%12.12%3.03%——48.48%
2——6.06%—3.03%3.03%12.12%
33.03%3.03%————6.06%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%24.24%21.21%12.12%9.09%6.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.70 -0.79
SD 0.84 1.53 1.85
CV 0.93 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%6.06%3.03%6.06%——18.18%
115.15%15.15%————30.30%
23.03%12.12%3.03%—3.03%—21.21%
36.06%9.09%————15.15%
43.03%3.03%————6.06%
5+6.06%—3.03%———9.09%
Total36.36%45.45%9.09%6.06%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.94 +0.94
SD 1.52 1.00 1.98
CV 0.81 1.06 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 33

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Suduva 1384 59 49.10 +9.90 95.0% 34 38 45 49 53 59 66
Trakai 1310 54 52.97 +1.03 64.0% 40 45 49 52 56 63 69
Zalgiris 1297 58 58.00 +0.00 51.0% 44 46 54 58 62 68 73
Atlantas 1107 33 42.66 -9.66 9.0% 29 31 37 43 47 54 55
Jonava 1084 31 29.08 +1.92 69.0% 15 20 25 29 33 38 43
Utenis Utena 1003 32 28.33 +3.67 76.0% 15 18 24 29 32 37 43
Stumbras 975 22 28.17 -6.17 15.0% 17 19 24 29 32 37 42
Kauno Zalgiris 903 15 19.80 -4.80 21.0% 10 11 16 19 23 28 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.30%
Slight Edge
39.37%27.56%33.07%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.91 Elo pts.
186 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
11%
Suduva, 3rd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.68 * Some Luck: 4.68 to 7.02 * Lucky: 7.02 to 9.37 * Wild Swing: 9.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.57 * Close: 0.57 to 0.85 * Off: 0.85 to 1.14 * Way Off: 1.14 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.79 points
Some Luck
05.8515
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.711.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Suduva
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.00%
Atlantas
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Balanced
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 172.87
2.46
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
84%
Slight Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
93%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.086
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Suduva11.00%26.00%40.00%21.00%2.00%———
Zalgiris67.00%16.00%13.00%4.00%————
Trakai22.00%49.00%21.00%8.00%————
Atlantas—9.00%24.00%54.00%9.00%2.00%2.00%—
Utenis Utena——1.00%7.00%29.00%29.00%27.00%7.00%
Jonava——1.00%4.00%34.00%23.00%31.00%7.00%
Stumbras———2.00%24.00%38.00%25.00%11.00%
Kauno Zalgiris————2.00%8.00%15.00%75.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Atlantas 98.00% 2.00% —
Suduva 100% — —
Trakai 100% — —
Zalgiris 100% — —
Jonava 62.00% 31.00% 7.00%
Utenis Utena 66.00% 27.00% 7.00%
Stumbras 64.00% 25.00% 11.00%
Kauno Zalgiris 10.00% 15.00% 75.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Atlantas 100%
Jonava 100%
Suduva 100%
Trakai 100%
Utenis Utena 100%
Zalgiris 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-03-03 Stumbras W 1-034.1 1255 1045 62.88% 24.29% 12.83%+1.25 +4.8 3
2017-03-03 @ Trakai L 0-134.1 1045 1255 12.83% 24.29% 62.88%-1.25 -4.8 0
2017-03-04 Jonava D 3-362.0 1196 1066 54.82% 26.95% 18.23%+0.82 -1.5 1
2017-03-04 @ Suduva D 3-362.0 1066 1196 18.23% 26.95% 54.82%-0.82 +1.5 1
2017-03-04 Zalgiris L 1-243.8 1178 1313 21.67% 27.93% 50.40%-0.61 -7.4 0
2017-03-04 @ Atlantas W 2-143.8 1313 1178 50.40% 27.93% 21.67%+0.61 +7.4 3
2017-03-09 Suduva L 1-242.8 1040 1194 19.93% 27.49% 52.58%-0.71 -6.9 0
2017-03-09 @ Stumbras W 2-142.8 1194 1040 52.58% 27.49% 19.93%+0.71 +6.9 4
2017-03-11 Atlantas L 0-135.9 980 1171 16.94% 26.47% 56.59%-0.91 -6.3 0
2017-03-11 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 1-035.9 1171 980 56.59% 26.47% 16.94%+0.91 +6.3 3
2017-03-12 Trakai D 0-048.0 1067 1260 16.78% 26.40% 56.81%-0.92 +3.0 2
2017-03-12 @ Jonava D 0-048.0 1260 1067 56.81% 26.40% 16.78%+0.92 -3.0 4
2017-03-12 Utenis Utena L 0-150.3 1321 1031 69.80% 21.09% 9.11%+1.68 -19.6 3
2017-03-12 @ Zalgiris W 1-050.3 1031 1321 9.11% 21.09% 69.80%-1.68 +19.6 3
2017-03-15 Stumbras W 4-136.2 1177 1033 56.27% 26.56% 17.17%+0.89 +14.7 6
2017-03-15 @ Atlantas L 1-436.2 1033 1177 17.17% 26.56% 56.27%-0.89 -14.7 0
2017-03-16 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-031.1 1301 974 72.74% 19.50% 7.76%+1.88 +2.7 6
2017-03-16 @ Zalgiris L 0-131.1 974 1301 7.76% 19.50% 72.74%-1.88 -2.7 0
2017-03-16 Trakai D 1-152.2 1201 1256 30.75% 29.11% 40.14%-0.18 +0.6 5
2017-03-16 @ Suduva D 1-152.2 1256 1201 40.14% 29.11% 30.75%+0.18 -0.6 5
2017-03-18 Jonava D 1-151.8 1051 1070 35.74% 29.23% 35.03%+0.01 -0.0 4
2017-03-18 @ Utenis Utena D 1-151.8 1070 1051 35.03% 29.23% 35.74%-0.01 +0.0 3
2017-03-29 Zalgiris L 0-141.9 1256 1304 31.79% 29.16% 39.05%-0.14 -10.6 5
2017-03-29 @ Trakai W 1-041.9 1304 1256 39.05% 29.16% 31.79%+0.14 +10.6 9
2017-03-30 Atlantas D 0-047.3 1202 1192 39.90% 29.12% 30.98%+0.17 -0.6 6
2017-03-30 @ Suduva D 0-047.3 1192 1202 30.98% 29.12% 39.90%-0.17 +0.6 7
2017-03-30 Utenis Utena D 1-151.8 1019 1051 33.96% 29.22% 36.82%-0.05 +0.2 1
2017-03-30 @ Stumbras D 1-151.8 1051 1019 36.82% 29.22% 33.96%+0.05 -0.2 5
2017-04-01 Kauno Zalgiris W 5-240.2 1070 971 51.28% 27.76% 20.96%+0.65 +15.2 6
2017-04-01 @ Jonava L 2-540.2 971 1070 20.96% 27.76% 51.28%-0.65 -15.2 0
2017-04-04 Trakai D 1-152.1 1192 1245 31.06% 29.12% 39.82%-0.17 +0.5 8
2017-04-04 @ Atlantas D 1-152.1 1245 1192 39.82% 29.12% 31.06%+0.17 -0.5 6
2017-04-05 Jonava W 2-139.3 1314 1085 64.63% 23.55% 11.81%+1.35 +4.1 12
2017-04-05 @ Zalgiris L 1-239.3 1085 1314 11.81% 23.55% 64.63%-1.35 -4.1 6
2017-04-05 Stumbras D 0-047.1 956 1019 29.82% 29.05% 41.13%-0.22 +0.8 1
2017-04-05 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 0-047.1 1019 956 41.13% 29.05% 29.82%+0.22 -0.8 2
2017-04-09 Suduva L 2-443.8 1050 1201 20.23% 27.57% 52.19%-0.69 -10.8 5
2017-04-09 @ Utenis Utena W 4-243.8 1201 1050 52.19% 27.57% 20.23%+0.69 +10.8 9
2017-04-12 Atlantas L 0-235.8 1081 1193 24.09% 28.41% 47.51%-0.48 -16.1 6
2017-04-12 @ Jonava W 2-035.8 1193 1081 47.51% 28.41% 24.09%+0.48 +16.1 11
2017-04-12 Zalgiris L 1-335.7 1018 1318 10.49% 22.45% 67.05%-1.50 -6.2 2
2017-04-12 @ Stumbras W 3-135.7 1318 1018 67.05% 22.45% 10.49%+1.50 +6.2 15
2017-04-13 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-135.6 1212 957 66.91% 22.52% 10.57%+1.49 +6.3 12
2017-04-13 @ Suduva L 1-335.6 957 1212 10.57% 22.52% 66.91%-1.49 -6.3 1
2017-04-13 Utenis Utena W 1-034.2 1245 1040 62.45% 24.46% 13.09%+1.22 +4.9 9
2017-04-13 @ Trakai L 0-134.2 1040 1245 13.09% 24.46% 62.45%-1.22 -4.9 5
2017-04-17 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-038.0 1035 950 49.54% 28.09% 22.37%+0.57 +8.0 8
2017-04-17 @ Utenis Utena L 0-138.0 950 1035 22.37% 28.09% 49.54%-0.57 -8.0 1
2017-04-19 Jonava W 1-043.6 1012 1065 31.05% 29.12% 39.82%-0.17 +12.5 5
2017-04-19 @ Stumbras L 0-143.6 1065 1012 39.82% 29.12% 31.05%+0.17 -12.5 6
2017-04-19 Suduva W 3-140.6 1325 1218 52.18% 27.58% 20.24%+0.69 +12.1 18
2017-04-19 @ Zalgiris L 1-340.6 1218 1325 20.24% 27.58% 52.18%-0.69 -12.0 12
2017-04-20 Atlantas L 0-332.0 1043 1209 18.88% 27.17% 53.94%-0.78 -19.0 8
2017-04-20 @ Utenis Utena W 3-032.0 1209 1043 53.94% 27.17% 18.88%+0.78 +19.0 14
2017-04-20 Trakai D 1-154.0 942 1250 10.19% 22.17% 67.64%-1.54 +4.0 2
2017-04-20 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-154.0 1250 942 67.64% 22.17% 10.19%+1.54 -4.0 10
2017-04-25 Stumbras W 2-031.9 1206 1024 60.18% 25.31% 14.51%+1.10 +10.2 15
2017-04-25 @ Suduva L 0-231.9 1024 1206 14.51% 25.31% 60.18%-1.10 -10.2 5
2017-04-25 Zalgiris L 0-427.4 1024 1337 9.95% 21.94% 68.12%-1.57 -12.9 8
2017-04-25 @ Utenis Utena W 4-027.4 1337 1024 68.12% 21.94% 9.95%+1.57 +12.9 21
2017-04-26 Jonava W 1-034.6 1246 1053 61.29% 24.91% 13.80%+1.16 +5.1 13
2017-04-26 @ Trakai L 0-134.6 1053 1246 13.80% 24.91% 61.29%-1.16 -5.1 6
2017-04-26 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-135.0 1228 946 69.13% 21.43% 9.44%+1.63 +5.5 17
2017-04-26 @ Atlantas L 1-335.0 946 1228 9.44% 21.43% 69.13%-1.63 -5.5 2
2017-04-29 Trakai D 1-153.2 1014 1251 13.81% 24.91% 61.28%-1.16 +3.2 6
2017-04-29 @ Stumbras D 1-153.2 1251 1014 61.28% 24.91% 13.81%+1.16 -3.2 14
2017-04-29 Suduva L 1-436.9 1047 1216 18.66% 27.10% 54.24%-0.79 -15.9 6
2017-04-29 @ Jonava W 4-136.9 1216 1047 54.24% 27.10% 18.66%+0.79 +15.9 18
2017-04-30 Atlantas W 1-037.7 1350 1233 53.28% 27.33% 19.39%+0.74 +7.1 24
2017-04-30 @ Zalgiris L 0-137.7 1233 1350 19.39% 27.33% 53.28%-0.74 -7.1 17
2017-04-30 Utenis Utena L 0-140.2 941 1011 28.91% 28.99% 42.11%-0.26 -9.9 2
2017-04-30 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 1-040.2 1011 941 42.11% 28.99% 28.91%+0.26 +9.9 11
2017-05-03 Trakai W 1-048.6 1021 1248 14.42% 25.26% 60.31%-1.10 +17.5 14
2017-05-03 @ Utenis Utena L 0-148.6 1248 1021 60.31% 25.26% 14.42%+1.10 -17.5 14
2017-05-03 Stumbras W 4-131.2 1357 1017 73.66% 18.98% 7.36%+1.94 +5.9 27
2017-05-03 @ Zalgiris L 1-431.2 1017 1357 7.36% 18.98% 73.66%-1.94 -5.9 6
2017-05-04 Jonava L 1-341.8 931 1032 25.28% 28.59% 46.12%-0.42 -14.5 2
2017-05-04 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 3-141.8 1032 931 46.12% 28.59% 25.28%+0.42 +14.5 9
2017-05-04 Suduva D 1-152.2 1226 1232 37.69% 29.20% 33.11%+0.09 -0.3 18
2017-05-04 @ Atlantas D 1-152.2 1232 1226 33.11% 29.20% 37.69%-0.09 +0.3 19
2017-05-10 Atlantas W 4-141.7 1230 1226 39.09% 29.16% 31.75%+0.14 +24.4 17
2017-05-10 @ Trakai L 1-441.7 1226 1230 31.75% 29.16% 39.09%-0.14 -24.4 18
2017-05-10 Zalgiris L 0-229.6 1046 1362 9.80% 21.79% 68.41%-1.59 -6.7 9
2017-05-10 @ Jonava W 2-029.6 1362 1046 68.41% 21.79% 9.80%+1.59 +6.7 30
2017-05-11 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-032.9 1011 917 50.81% 27.86% 21.34%+0.63 +21.1 9
2017-05-11 @ Stumbras L 0-332.9 917 1011 21.34% 27.86% 50.81%-0.63 -21.1 2
2017-05-11 Utenis Utena W 2-140.2 1232 1038 61.38% 24.87% 13.74%+1.16 +4.8 22
2017-05-11 @ Suduva L 1-240.2 1038 1232 13.74% 24.87% 61.38%-1.16 -4.8 14
2017-05-16 Trakai D 1-153.5 1369 1255 53.10% 27.37% 19.53%+0.74 -2.2 31
2017-05-16 @ Zalgiris D 1-153.5 1255 1369 19.53% 27.37% 53.10%-0.74 +2.2 18
2017-05-16 Suduva L 0-228.8 895 1237 8.79% 20.74% 70.47%-1.72 -5.9 2
2017-05-16 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-028.8 1237 895 70.47% 20.74% 8.79%+1.72 +5.9 25
2017-05-17 Jonava L 0-148.2 1202 1039 58.21% 25.97% 15.81%+0.99 -17.0 18
2017-05-17 @ Atlantas W 1-048.2 1039 1202 15.81% 25.97% 58.21%-0.99 +17.0 12
2017-05-17 Stumbras D 0-047.1 1033 1033 38.62% 29.17% 32.21%+0.12 -0.4 15
2017-05-17 @ Utenis Utena D 0-047.1 1033 1033 32.21% 29.17% 38.62%-0.12 +0.4 10
2017-05-23 Kauno Zalgiris W 4-130.4 1257 890 75.67% 17.80% 6.53%+2.09 +5.1 21
2017-05-23 @ Trakai L 1-430.4 890 1257 6.53% 17.80% 75.67%-2.09 -5.1 2
2017-05-23 Utenis Utena W 1-040.4 1056 1033 41.74% 29.01% 29.25%+0.24 +9.9 15
2017-05-23 @ Jonava L 0-140.4 1033 1056 29.25% 29.01% 41.74%-0.24 -9.9 15
2017-05-24 Atlantas D 1-152.4 1033 1185 20.14% 27.55% 52.31%-0.70 +2.1 11
2017-05-24 @ Stumbras D 1-152.4 1185 1033 52.31% 27.55% 20.14%+0.70 -2.1 19
2017-05-24 Zalgiris D 0-048.4 1243 1367 22.78% 28.17% 49.05%-0.55 +1.9 26
2017-05-24 @ Suduva D 0-048.4 1367 1243 49.05% 28.17% 22.78%+0.55 -1.9 32
2017-05-31 Stumbras L 1-250.1 1066 1035 42.79% 28.94% 28.28%+0.29 -12.4 15
2017-05-31 @ Jonava W 2-150.1 1035 1066 28.28% 28.94% 42.79%-0.29 +12.4 14
2017-05-31 Suduva W 2-038.2 1262 1245 40.85% 29.07% 30.08%+0.21 +19.1 24
2017-05-31 @ Trakai L 0-238.2 1245 1262 30.08% 29.07% 40.85%-0.21 -19.1 26
2017-06-01 Utenis Utena D 2-258.5 1182 1023 57.94% 26.06% 16.00%+0.98 -2.1 20
2017-06-01 @ Atlantas D 2-258.5 1023 1182 16.00% 26.06% 57.94%-0.98 +2.1 16
2017-06-01 Zalgiris W 2-048.6 884 1365 4.80% 14.96% 80.24%-2.47 +40.2 5
2017-06-01 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-248.6 1365 884 80.24% 14.96% 4.80%+2.47 -40.2 32
2017-06-14 Atlantas W 3-031.7 1325 1180 56.38% 26.53% 17.09%+0.90 +17.3 35
2017-06-14 @ Zalgiris L 0-331.7 1180 1325 17.09% 26.53% 56.38%-0.90 -17.3 20
2017-06-14 Trakai D 0-048.4 1047 1281 14.01% 25.03% 60.96%-1.14 +3.6 15
2017-06-14 @ Stumbras D 0-048.4 1281 1047 60.96% 25.03% 14.01%+1.14 -3.6 25
2017-06-15 Jonava D 1-153.0 1226 1054 59.19% 25.65% 15.15%+1.04 -3.0 27
2017-06-15 @ Suduva D 1-153.0 1054 1226 15.15% 25.65% 59.19%-1.04 +3.0 16
2017-06-15 Kauno Zalgiris D 0-047.5 1025 925 51.47% 27.72% 20.81%+0.66 -2.2 17
2017-06-15 @ Utenis Utena D 0-047.5 925 1025 20.81% 27.72% 51.47%-0.66 +2.2 6
2017-06-20 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-147.3 1051 927 54.17% 27.12% 18.71%+0.79 -16.0 15
2017-06-20 @ Stumbras W 1-047.3 927 1051 18.71% 27.12% 54.17%-0.79 +16.0 9
2017-06-20 Zalgiris L 1-239.0 1057 1342 11.19% 23.06% 65.75%-1.42 -3.9 16
2017-06-20 @ Jonava W 2-139.0 1342 1057 65.75% 23.06% 11.19%+1.42 +3.9 38
2017-06-21 Atlantas D 1-152.2 1223 1163 46.50% 28.55% 24.95%+0.44 -1.4 28
2017-06-21 @ Suduva D 1-152.2 1163 1223 24.95% 28.55% 46.50%-0.44 +1.4 21
2017-06-21 Utenis Utena W 3-028.2 1277 1023 66.88% 22.54% 10.59%+1.49 +10.6 28
2017-06-21 @ Trakai L 0-328.2 1023 1277 10.59% 22.54% 66.88%-1.49 -10.6 17
2017-07-22 Jonava W 1-045.6 943 1053 24.22% 28.43% 47.35%-0.48 +14.3 12
2017-07-22 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-145.6 1053 943 47.35% 28.43% 24.22%+0.48 -14.3 16
2017-07-22 Stumbras W 1-031.6 1346 1035 71.51% 20.18% 8.31%+1.79 +2.9 41
2017-07-22 @ Zalgiris L 0-131.6 1035 1346 8.31% 20.18% 71.51%-1.79 -2.9 15
2017-07-23 Trakai L 0-138.5 1164 1288 22.82% 28.18% 49.00%-0.55 -8.2 21
2017-07-23 @ Atlantas W 1-038.5 1288 1164 49.00% 28.18% 22.82%+0.55 +8.2 31
2017-07-23 Suduva W 1-048.2 1012 1221 15.60% 25.87% 58.53%-1.01 +17.0 20
2017-07-23 @ Utenis Utena L 0-148.2 1221 1012 58.53% 25.87% 15.60%+1.01 -17.0 28
2017-07-25 Zalgiris D 1-155.1 957 1349 7.09% 18.61% 74.30%-1.99 +4.6 13
2017-07-25 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-155.1 1349 957 74.30% 18.61% 7.09%+1.99 -4.6 42
2017-07-26 Atlantas D 1-152.2 1029 1156 22.49% 28.11% 49.40%-0.56 +1.7 21
2017-07-26 @ Utenis Utena D 1-152.2 1156 1029 49.40% 28.11% 22.49%+0.56 -1.7 22
2017-07-28 Jonava D 0-047.1 1032 1039 37.57% 29.20% 33.22%+0.08 -0.3 16
2017-07-28 @ Stumbras D 0-047.1 1039 1032 33.22% 29.20% 37.57%-0.08 +0.3 17
2017-08-02 Utenis Utena W 5-026.7 1344 1031 71.69% 20.08% 8.23%+1.80 +12.8 45
2017-08-02 @ Zalgiris L 0-526.7 1031 1344 8.23% 20.08% 71.69%-1.80 -12.8 21
2017-08-03 Kauno Zalgiris D 1-153.1 1154 962 61.26% 24.92% 13.82%+1.16 -3.2 23
2017-08-03 @ Atlantas D 1-153.1 962 1154 13.82% 24.92% 61.26%-1.16 +3.2 14
2017-08-06 Trakai L 1-336.8 1039 1296 12.65% 24.16% 63.19%-1.27 -7.6 17
2017-08-06 @ Jonava W 3-136.8 1296 1039 63.19% 24.16% 12.65%+1.27 +7.7 34
2017-08-06 Stumbras W 4-241.7 1204 1032 59.26% 25.63% 15.11%+1.05 +8.2 31
2017-08-06 @ Suduva L 2-441.7 1032 1204 15.11% 25.63% 59.26%-1.05 -8.2 16
2017-08-09 Trakai L 1-237.5 965 1304 8.90% 20.86% 70.24%-1.71 -3.0 14
2017-08-09 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-137.5 1304 965 70.24% 20.86% 8.90%+1.71 +3.0 37
2017-08-09 Suduva D 1-153.4 1357 1213 56.39% 26.53% 17.09%+0.90 -2.6 46
2017-08-09 @ Zalgiris D 1-153.4 1213 1357 17.09% 26.53% 56.39%-0.90 +2.6 32
2017-08-10 Jonava L 0-147.2 1151 1031 53.68% 27.24% 19.08%+0.76 -15.8 23
2017-08-10 @ Atlantas W 1-047.2 1031 1151 19.08% 27.24% 53.68%-0.76 +15.8 20
2017-08-10 Stumbras D 1-151.8 1018 1024 37.75% 29.20% 33.06%+0.09 -0.3 22
2017-08-10 @ Utenis Utena D 1-151.8 1024 1018 33.06% 29.20% 37.75%-0.09 +0.3 17
2017-08-12 Zalgiris D 2-259.0 1307 1355 31.79% 29.16% 39.06%-0.14 +0.3 38
2017-08-12 @ Trakai D 2-259.0 1355 1307 39.06% 29.16% 31.79%+0.14 -0.3 47
2017-08-13 Atlantas L 0-333.9 1024 1135 24.09% 28.41% 47.50%-0.48 -23.4 17
2017-08-13 @ Stumbras W 3-033.9 1135 1024 47.50% 28.41% 24.09%+0.48 +23.4 26
2017-08-13 Utenis Utena L 1-347.1 1047 1018 42.52% 28.96% 28.52%+0.28 -21.4 20
2017-08-13 @ Jonava W 3-147.1 1018 1047 28.52% 28.96% 42.52%-0.28 +21.4 25
2017-08-16 Jonava W 5-026.4 1354 1026 72.84% 19.45% 7.72%+1.89 +11.8 50
2017-08-16 @ Zalgiris L 0-526.4 1026 1354 7.72% 19.45% 72.84%-1.89 -11.8 20
2017-08-16 Trakai L 0-428.6 1039 1307 12.08% 23.75% 64.17%-1.32 -16.0 25
2017-08-16 @ Utenis Utena W 4-028.6 1307 1039 64.17% 23.75% 12.08%+1.32 +16.0 41
2017-08-17 Stumbras L 0-238.6 962 1001 33.04% 29.20% 37.77%-0.09 -20.5 14
2017-08-17 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-038.6 1001 962 37.77% 29.20% 33.04%+0.09 +20.5 20
2017-08-22 Atlantas W 2-032.8 1323 1159 58.43% 25.90% 15.66%+1.00 +11.0 44
2017-08-22 @ Trakai L 0-232.8 1159 1323 15.66% 25.90% 58.43%-1.00 -11.0 26
2017-08-22 Zalgiris D 1-154.6 1021 1366 8.67% 20.60% 70.73%-1.74 +4.3 21
2017-08-22 @ Stumbras D 1-154.6 1366 1021 70.73% 20.60% 8.67%+1.74 -4.3 51
2017-08-23 Utenis Utena D 1-151.9 941 1023 27.44% 28.86% 43.70%-0.32 +1.0 15
2017-08-23 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-151.9 1023 941 43.70% 28.86% 27.44%+0.32 -1.0 26
2017-09-13 Trakai W 5-145.0 1215 1334 23.31% 28.27% 48.42%-0.52 +43.3 35
2017-09-13 @ Suduva L 1-545.0 1334 1215 48.42% 28.27% 23.31%+0.52 -43.3 44
2017-09-13 Stumbras D 1-151.8 1014 1025 36.90% 29.21% 33.89%+0.06 -0.2 21
2017-09-13 @ Jonava D 1-151.8 1025 1014 33.89% 29.21% 36.90%-0.06 +0.2 22
2017-09-14 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-132.0 1362 942 79.15% 15.66% 5.19%+2.37 +2.7 54
2017-09-14 @ Zalgiris L 1-332.0 942 1362 5.19% 15.66% 79.15%-2.37 -2.7 15
2017-09-14 Utenis Utena L 0-147.3 1148 1022 54.30% 27.08% 18.61%+0.79 -16.0 26
2017-09-14 @ Atlantas W 1-047.3 1022 1148 18.61% 27.08% 54.30%-0.79 +16.0 29
2017-09-16 Suduva L 2-355.7 1291 1258 42.92% 28.92% 28.15%+0.29 -11.8 44
2017-09-16 @ Trakai W 3-255.7 1258 1291 28.15% 28.92% 42.92%-0.29 +11.8 38
2017-09-19 Atlantas L 0-135.9 940 1132 16.82% 26.42% 56.77%-0.92 -6.2 15
2017-09-19 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 1-035.9 1132 940 56.77% 26.42% 16.82%+0.92 +6.2 29
2017-09-19 Jonava D 0-049.3 1279 1014 67.78% 22.10% 10.12%+1.54 -4.5 45
2017-09-19 @ Trakai D 0-049.3 1014 1279 10.12% 22.10% 67.78%-1.54 +4.5 22
2017-09-20 Suduva L 1-337.2 1026 1270 13.34% 24.62% 62.04%-1.20 -8.1 22
2017-09-20 @ Stumbras W 3-137.2 1270 1026 62.04% 24.62% 13.34%+1.20 +8.1 41
2017-09-20 Zalgiris L 1-238.0 1038 1364 9.40% 21.39% 69.21%-1.64 -3.2 29
2017-09-20 @ Utenis Utena W 2-138.0 1364 1038 69.21% 21.39% 9.40%+1.64 +3.2 57
2017-09-27 Stumbras W 1-032.8 1274 1017 67.09% 22.43% 10.47%+1.50 +3.8 48
2017-09-27 @ Trakai L 0-132.8 1017 1274 10.47% 22.43% 67.09%-1.50 -3.8 22
2017-09-27 Zalgiris D 1-153.5 1138 1368 14.25% 25.17% 60.58%-1.12 +3.2 30
2017-09-27 @ Atlantas D 1-153.5 1368 1138 60.58% 25.17% 14.25%+1.12 -3.2 58
2017-09-28 Kauno Zalgiris W 2-143.6 1018 934 49.61% 28.08% 22.32%+0.57 +7.6 25
2017-09-28 @ Jonava L 1-243.6 934 1018 22.32% 28.08% 49.61%-0.57 -7.6 15
2017-09-28 Utenis Utena W 2-030.3 1278 1035 65.89% 22.99% 11.11%+1.43 +7.7 44
2017-09-28 @ Suduva L 0-230.3 1035 1278 11.11% 22.99% 65.89%-1.43 -7.7 29
2017-10-02 Suduva L 1-243.3 1141 1286 20.75% 27.71% 51.54%-0.66 -7.1 30
2017-10-02 @ Atlantas W 2-143.3 1286 1141 51.54% 27.71% 20.75%+0.66 +7.1 47
2017-10-11 Kauno Zalgiris W 5-025.4 1293 926 75.67% 17.80% 6.53%+2.09 +9.7 50
2017-10-11 @ Suduva L 0-525.4 926 1293 6.53% 17.80% 75.67%-2.09 -9.7 15
2017-10-12 Trakai L 0-147.5 1364 1278 49.78% 28.05% 22.18%+0.58 -14.9 58
2017-10-12 @ Zalgiris W 1-047.5 1278 1364 22.18% 28.05% 49.78%-0.58 +14.9 51
2017-10-12 Stumbras W 3-247.4 1134 1014 53.75% 27.22% 19.03%+0.77 +6.2 33
2017-10-12 @ Atlantas L 2-347.4 1014 1134 19.03% 27.22% 53.75%-0.77 -6.2 22
2017-10-14 Jonava L 1-248.9 1028 1026 38.73% 29.17% 32.10%+0.13 -11.5 29
2017-10-14 @ Utenis Utena W 2-148.9 1026 1028 32.10% 29.17% 38.73%-0.13 +11.5 28
2017-10-14 Suduva L 1-529.3 916 1303 7.25% 18.83% 73.91%-1.96 -7.4 15
2017-10-14 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 5-129.3 1303 916 73.91% 18.83% 7.25%+1.96 +7.4 53
2017-10-17 Suduva L 0-528.8 1037 1310 11.81% 23.55% 64.64%-1.35 -19.2 28
2017-10-17 @ Jonava W 5-028.8 1310 1037 64.64% 23.55% 11.81%+1.35 +19.2 56
2017-10-22 Atlantas W 2-151.7 1018 1140 22.97% 28.21% 48.83%-0.54 +13.8 31
2017-10-22 @ Jonava L 1-251.7 1140 1018 48.83% 28.21% 22.97%+0.54 -13.8 33
2017-10-22 Kauno Zalgiris W 5-128.4 1293 909 76.85% 17.09% 6.06%+2.19 +6.0 54
2017-10-22 @ Trakai L 1-528.4 909 1293 6.06% 17.09% 76.85%-2.19 -6.0 15
2017-10-22 Utenis Utena L 0-338.1 1007 1016 37.28% 29.21% 33.51%+0.07 -32.5 22
2017-10-22 @ Stumbras W 3-038.1 1016 1007 33.51% 29.21% 37.28%-0.07 +32.5 32
2017-10-22 Zalgiris W 3-039.1 1330 1350 35.65% 29.23% 35.13%+0.01 +31.1 59
2017-10-22 @ Suduva L 0-339.1 1350 1330 35.13% 29.23% 35.65%-0.01 -31.1 58

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-10-25 Jonava W 2-138.3 1299 1032 67.96% 22.02% 10.03%+1.56 +3.4 3
2017-10-25 @ Trakai L 1-238.3 1032 1299 10.03% 22.02% 67.96%-1.56 -3.4 0
2017-10-25 Suduva L 1-238.3 1048 1361 9.98% 21.97% 68.05%-1.56 -3.4 0
2017-10-25 @ Utenis Utena W 2-138.3 1361 1048 68.05% 21.97% 9.98%+1.56 +3.4 3
2017-10-26 Zalgiris L 0-331.4 1127 1319 16.82% 26.42% 56.76%-0.92 -17.1 0
2017-10-26 @ Atlantas W 3-031.4 1319 1127 56.76% 26.42% 16.82%+0.92 +17.1 3
2017-10-29 Atlantas W 1-033.2 1364 1109 66.89% 22.53% 10.58%+1.49 +3.9 6
2017-10-29 @ Suduva L 0-133.2 1109 1364 10.58% 22.53% 66.89%-1.49 -3.9 0
2017-10-29 Utenis Utena W 3-037.3 1029 1045 36.15% 29.22% 34.62%+0.03 +30.8 3
2017-10-29 @ Jonava L 0-337.3 1045 1029 34.62% 29.22% 36.15%-0.03 -30.8 0
2017-10-31 Trakai W 1-041.2 1336 1303 43.03% 28.92% 28.06%+0.30 +9.6 6
2017-10-31 @ Zalgiris L 0-141.2 1303 1336 28.06% 28.92% 43.03%-0.30 -9.6 3
2017-11-04 Jonava L 2-456.8 1345 1059 69.51% 21.24% 9.26%+1.66 -28.5 6
2017-11-04 @ Zalgiris W 4-256.8 1059 1345 9.26% 21.24% 69.51%-1.66 +28.5 6
2017-11-04 Suduva W 1-045.8 1293 1368 28.29% 28.94% 42.78%-0.29 +13.1 6
2017-11-04 @ Trakai L 0-145.8 1368 1293 42.78% 28.94% 28.29%+0.29 -13.2 6
2017-11-04 Utenis Utena D 2-258.0 1106 1014 50.39% 27.93% 21.68%+0.61 -1.4 1
2017-11-04 @ Atlantas D 2-258.0 1014 1106 21.68% 27.93% 50.39%-0.61 +1.4 1
2017-11-12 Atlantas D 2-259.2 1306 1104 62.13% 24.59% 13.28%+1.20 -2.5 7
2017-11-12 @ Trakai D 2-259.2 1104 1306 13.28% 24.59% 62.13%-1.20 +2.5 2
2017-11-15 Jonava W 2-138.4 1355 1088 67.94% 22.03% 10.04%+1.55 +3.4 9
2017-11-15 @ Suduva L 1-238.4 1088 1355 10.04% 22.03% 67.94%-1.55 -3.4 6
2017-11-15 Utenis Utena W 5-234.5 1317 1016 70.72% 20.60% 8.68%+1.74 +6.2 9
2017-11-15 @ Zalgiris L 2-534.5 1016 1317 8.68% 20.60% 70.72%-1.74 -6.1 1
2017-11-19 Atlantas D 2-257.6 1084 1107 35.33% 29.23% 35.44%+0.00 +0.0 7
2017-11-19 @ Jonava D 2-257.6 1107 1084 35.44% 29.23% 35.33%+0.00 -0.0 3
2017-11-19 Trakai L 1-335.8 1010 1304 10.78% 22.71% 66.51%-1.46 -6.4 1
2017-11-19 @ Utenis Utena W 3-135.8 1304 1010 66.51% 22.71% 10.78%+1.46 +6.5 10
2017-11-19 Zalgiris W 3-036.8 1358 1323 43.33% 28.89% 27.78%+0.31 +26.2 12
2017-11-19 @ Suduva L 0-336.8 1323 1358 27.78% 28.89% 43.33%-0.31 -26.2 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-06-01 4.80% @ Kauno Zalgiris 884 2 Zalgiris 1365 0
2 2017-03-12 9.11% Utenis Utena 1031 1 @ Zalgiris 1321 0
3 2017-11-04 9.26% Jonava 1059 4 @ Zalgiris 1345 2
4 2017-05-03 14.42% @ Utenis Utena 1021 1 Trakai 1248 0
5 2017-07-23 15.60% @ Utenis Utena 1012 1 Suduva 1221 0
6 2017-05-17 15.81% Jonava 1039 1 @ Atlantas 1202 0
7 2017-09-14 18.61% Utenis Utena 1022 1 @ Atlantas 1148 0
8 2017-06-20 18.71% Kauno Zalgiris 927 1 @ Stumbras 1051 0
9 2017-08-10 19.08% Jonava 1031 1 @ Atlantas 1151 0
10 2017-10-12 22.18% Trakai 1278 1 @ Zalgiris 1364 0
11 2017-10-22 22.97% @ Jonava 1018 2 Atlantas 1140 1
12 2017-09-13 23.31% @ Suduva 1215 5 Trakai 1334 1
13 2017-07-22 24.22% @ Kauno Zalgiris 943 1 Jonava 1053 0
14 2017-09-16 28.15% Suduva 1258 3 @ Trakai 1291 2
15 2017-05-31 28.28% Stumbras 1035 2 @ Jonava 1066 1
16 2017-11-04 28.29% @ Trakai 1293 1 Suduva 1368 0
17 2017-08-13 28.52% Utenis Utena 1018 3 @ Jonava 1047 1
18 2017-04-19 31.05% @ Stumbras 1012 1 Jonava 1065 0
19 2017-10-14 32.10% Jonava 1026 2 @ Utenis Utena 1028 1
20 2017-10-22 33.51% Utenis Utena 1016 3 @ Stumbras 1007 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-09-13 43.32 @ Suduva 5 1215 23.31% Trakai 1 1334 48.42% 28.27%
2 2017-06-01 40.20 @ Kauno Zalgiris 2 884 4.80% Zalgiris 0 1365 80.24% 14.96%
3 2017-10-22 32.48 Utenis Utena 3 1016 33.51% @ Stumbras 0 1007 37.28% 29.21%
4 2017-10-22 31.12 @ Suduva 3 1330 35.65% Zalgiris 0 1350 35.13% 29.23%
5 2017-10-29 30.80 @ Jonava 3 1029 36.15% Utenis Utena 0 1045 34.62% 29.22%
6 2017-11-04 28.52 Jonava 4 1059 9.26% @ Zalgiris 2 1345 69.51% 21.24%
7 2017-11-19 26.17 @ Suduva 3 1358 43.33% Zalgiris 0 1323 27.78% 28.89%
8 2017-05-10 24.40 @ Trakai 4 1230 39.09% Atlantas 1 1226 31.75% 29.16%
9 2017-08-13 23.39 Atlantas 3 1135 47.50% @ Stumbras 0 1024 24.09% 28.41%
10 2017-08-13 21.38 Utenis Utena 3 1018 28.52% @ Jonava 1 1047 42.52% 28.96%
11 2017-05-11 21.15 @ Stumbras 3 1011 50.81% Kauno Zalgiris 0 917 21.34% 27.86%
12 2017-08-17 20.50 Stumbras 2 1001 37.77% @ Kauno Zalgiris 0 962 33.04% 29.20%
13 2017-03-12 19.58 Utenis Utena 1 1031 9.11% @ Zalgiris 0 1321 69.80% 21.09%
14 2017-10-17 19.22 Suduva 5 1310 64.64% @ Jonava 0 1037 11.81% 23.55%
15 2017-05-31 19.14 @ Trakai 2 1262 40.85% Suduva 0 1245 30.08% 29.07%
16 2017-04-20 19.00 Atlantas 3 1209 53.94% @ Utenis Utena 0 1043 18.88% 27.17%
17 2017-05-03 17.48 @ Utenis Utena 1 1021 14.42% Trakai 0 1248 60.31% 25.26%
18 2017-06-14 17.34 @ Zalgiris 3 1325 56.38% Atlantas 0 1180 17.09% 26.53%
19 2017-10-26 17.09 Zalgiris 3 1319 56.76% @ Atlantas 0 1127 16.82% 26.42%
20 2017-07-23 17.04 @ Utenis Utena 1 1012 15.60% Suduva 0 1221 58.53% 25.87%
21 2017-05-17 16.96 Jonava 1 1039 15.81% @ Atlantas 0 1202 58.21% 25.97%
22 2017-04-12 16.10 Atlantas 2 1193 47.51% @ Jonava 0 1081 24.09% 28.41%
23 2017-09-14 15.99 Utenis Utena 1 1022 18.61% @ Atlantas 0 1148 54.30% 27.08%
24 2017-08-16 15.97 Trakai 4 1307 64.17% @ Utenis Utena 0 1039 12.08% 23.75%
25 2017-06-20 15.96 Kauno Zalgiris 1 927 18.71% @ Stumbras 0 1051 54.17% 27.12%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-03-04 62.0 @ Suduva 3 1196 54.82% Jonava 3 1066 18.23% 26.95%
2 2017-11-12 59.2 @ Trakai 2 1306 62.13% Atlantas 2 1104 13.28% 24.59%
3 2017-08-12 59.0 @ Trakai 2 1307 31.79% Zalgiris 2 1355 39.06% 29.16%
4 2017-06-01 58.5 @ Atlantas 2 1182 57.94% Utenis Utena 2 1023 16.00% 26.06%
5 2017-11-04 58.0 @ Atlantas 2 1106 50.39% Utenis Utena 2 1014 21.68% 27.93%
6 2017-11-19 57.6 @ Jonava 2 1084 35.33% Atlantas 2 1107 35.44% 29.23%
7 2017-11-04 56.8 Jonava 4 1059 9.26% @ Zalgiris 2 1345 69.51% 21.24%
8 2017-09-16 55.7 Suduva 3 1258 28.15% @ Trakai 2 1291 42.92% 28.92%
9 2017-07-25 55.1 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 957 7.09% Zalgiris 1 1349 74.30% 18.61%
10 2017-08-22 54.6 @ Stumbras 1 1021 8.67% Zalgiris 1 1366 70.73% 20.60%
11 2017-04-20 54.0 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 942 10.19% Trakai 1 1250 67.64% 22.17%
12 2017-05-16 53.5 @ Zalgiris 1 1369 53.10% Trakai 1 1255 19.53% 27.37%
13 2017-09-27 53.5 @ Atlantas 1 1138 14.25% Zalgiris 1 1368 60.58% 25.17%
14 2017-08-09 53.4 @ Zalgiris 1 1357 56.39% Suduva 1 1213 17.09% 26.53%
15 2017-04-29 53.2 @ Stumbras 1 1014 13.81% Trakai 1 1251 61.28% 24.91%
16 2017-08-03 53.1 @ Atlantas 1 1154 61.26% Kauno Zalgiris 1 962 13.82% 24.92%
17 2017-06-15 53.0 @ Suduva 1 1226 59.19% Jonava 1 1054 15.15% 25.65%
18 2017-05-24 52.4 @ Stumbras 1 1033 20.14% Atlantas 1 1185 52.31% 27.55%
19 2017-03-16 52.2 @ Suduva 1 1201 30.75% Trakai 1 1256 40.14% 29.11%
20 2017-05-04 52.2 @ Atlantas 1 1226 37.69% Suduva 1 1232 33.11% 29.20%
21 2017-06-21 52.2 @ Suduva 1 1223 46.50% Atlantas 1 1163 24.95% 28.55%
22 2017-07-26 52.2 @ Utenis Utena 1 1029 22.49% Atlantas 1 1156 49.40% 28.11%
23 2017-04-04 52.1 @ Atlantas 1 1192 31.06% Trakai 1 1245 39.82% 29.12%
24 2017-08-23 51.9 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 941 27.44% Utenis Utena 1 1023 43.70% 28.86%
25 2017-03-18 51.8 @ Utenis Utena 1 1051 35.74% Jonava 1 1070 35.03% 29.23%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-10-11 25.4 @ Suduva 5 1293 75.67% Kauno Zalgiris 0 926 6.53% 17.80%
2 2017-08-16 26.4 @ Zalgiris 5 1354 72.84% Jonava 0 1026 7.72% 19.45%
3 2017-08-02 26.7 @ Zalgiris 5 1344 71.69% Utenis Utena 0 1031 8.23% 20.08%
4 2017-04-25 27.4 Zalgiris 4 1337 68.12% @ Utenis Utena 0 1024 9.95% 21.94%
5 2017-06-21 28.2 @ Trakai 3 1277 66.88% Utenis Utena 0 1023 10.59% 22.54%
6 2017-10-22 28.4 @ Trakai 5 1293 76.85% Kauno Zalgiris 1 909 6.06% 17.09%
7 2017-08-16 28.6 Trakai 4 1307 64.17% @ Utenis Utena 0 1039 12.08% 23.75%
8 2017-05-16 28.8 Suduva 2 1237 70.47% @ Kauno Zalgiris 0 895 8.79% 20.74%
9 2017-10-17 28.8 Suduva 5 1310 64.64% @ Jonava 0 1037 11.81% 23.55%
10 2017-10-14 29.3 Suduva 5 1303 73.91% @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 916 7.25% 18.83%
11 2017-05-10 29.6 Zalgiris 2 1362 68.41% @ Jonava 0 1046 9.80% 21.79%
12 2017-09-28 30.3 @ Suduva 2 1278 65.89% Utenis Utena 0 1035 11.11% 22.99%
13 2017-05-23 30.4 @ Trakai 4 1257 75.67% Kauno Zalgiris 1 890 6.53% 17.80%
14 2017-03-16 31.1 @ Zalgiris 1 1301 72.74% Kauno Zalgiris 0 974 7.76% 19.50%
15 2017-05-03 31.2 @ Zalgiris 4 1357 73.66% Stumbras 1 1017 7.36% 18.98%
16 2017-10-26 31.4 Zalgiris 3 1319 56.76% @ Atlantas 0 1127 16.82% 26.42%
17 2017-07-22 31.6 @ Zalgiris 1 1346 71.51% Stumbras 0 1035 8.31% 20.18%
18 2017-06-14 31.7 @ Zalgiris 3 1325 56.38% Atlantas 0 1180 17.09% 26.53%
19 2017-04-25 31.9 @ Suduva 2 1206 60.18% Stumbras 0 1024 14.51% 25.31%
20 2017-04-20 32.0 Atlantas 3 1209 53.94% @ Utenis Utena 0 1043 18.88% 27.17%
21 2017-09-14 32.0 @ Zalgiris 3 1362 79.15% Kauno Zalgiris 1 942 5.19% 15.66%
22 2017-08-22 32.8 @ Trakai 2 1323 58.43% Atlantas 0 1159 15.66% 25.90%
23 2017-09-27 32.8 @ Trakai 1 1274 67.09% Stumbras 0 1017 10.47% 22.43%
24 2017-05-11 32.9 @ Stumbras 3 1011 50.81% Kauno Zalgiris 0 917 21.34% 27.86%
25 2017-10-29 33.2 @ Suduva 1 1364 66.89% Atlantas 0 1109 10.58% 22.53%