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2018 A Lyga Season

127 games

Final

Champion

Suduva

67 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Stumbras

8.54 points above expected

45 points · 36.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Atlantas

9.88 points below expected

23 points · 32.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Suduva 28 21 4 3 67 59 16 +43 60.59 +6.41
2 Zalgiris 28 19 5 4 62 60 20 +40 55.58 +6.42
3 Stumbras 28 13 6 9 45 36 25 +11 36.46 +8.54
4 Trakai 28 11 9 8 42 37 26 +11 46.01 -4.01
5 Kauno Zalgiris 28 10 5 13 35 22 31 -9 27.38 +7.62
6 Atlantas 28 6 5 17 23 26 55 -29 32.88 -9.88
7 Palanga 28 5 5 18 20 17 58 -41 28.10 -8.10
8 Jonava 28 4 7 17 19 24 50 -26 25.93 -6.93
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zalgiris 5 4 1 0 13 10 3 +7 72.24 -59.24
2 Suduva 5 3 1 1 10 13 4 +9 77.45 -67.45
3 Trakai 5 3 0 2 9 9 3 +6 49.37 -40.37
4 Stumbras 5 2 0 3 6 9 10 -1 51.95 -45.95
5 Kauno Zalgiris 5 1 1 3 4 7 10 -3 40.00 -36.00
6 Atlantas 5 0 1 4 1 2 20 -18 25.08 -24.08

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stumbras 45 36.46 +8.54
2 Kauno Zalgiris 35 27.38 +7.62
3 Zalgiris 62 55.58 +6.42
4 Suduva 67 60.59 +6.41
5 Trakai 42 46.01 -4.01

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atlantas 23 32.88 -9.88
2 Palanga 20 28.10 -8.10
3 Jonava 19 25.93 -6.93
4 Trakai 42 46.01 -4.01
5 Suduva 67 60.59 +6.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stumbras 5 Jun 16 – Aug 11 1 in 137
2 Zalgiris 7 Jun 20 – Sep 26 1 in 73
3 Kauno Zalgiris 2 Mar 7 – Mar 17 1 in 21
4 Suduva 5 Mar 31 – Apr 24 1 in 7
5 Jonava 1 Mar 30 – Mar 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 5 Jun 15 – Aug 19 1 in 109
2 Jonava 4 Jun 20 – Aug 12 1 in 7
3 Zalgiris 1 Mar 30 – Mar 30 1 in 7
4 Kauno Zalgiris 3 Mar 31 – Apr 12 1 in 7
5 Palanga 4 Jun 16 – Aug 7 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 16 Feb 24 – Jun 20 1 in 15
2 Stumbras 5 Jun 16 – Aug 11 1 in 13
3 Trakai 6 Aug 12 – Sep 26 1 in 9
4 Jonava 3 Aug 18 – Sep 19 1 in 8
5 Zalgiris 7 Jun 20 – Sep 26 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 13 Jun 15 – Oct 24 1 in 72
2 Jonava 8 Apr 25 – May 24 1 in 26
3 Trakai 4 May 2 – May 16 1 in 14
4 Stumbras 6 Apr 11 – May 8 1 in 9
5 Palanga 7 Aug 18 – Oct 24 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Suduva 1559 77 +13 10 10.5 -0.5
Zalgiris 1585 75 +54 13 10.3 +2.7
Trakai 1425 51 +52 9 7.4 +1.6
Stumbras 1296 51 -52 6 6.7 -0.7
Kauno Zalgiris 1211 39 -23 4 5.4 -1.4
Atlantas 966 24 -44 1 1.8 -0.8
Palanga 1000 20 -70 1 3.5 -2.5
Jonava 1047 19 -38 1 2.4 -1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL JON KZ PAL STU SUD TRA ZAL
Atlantas —
1-2-1
6.30
1-0-3
6.35
1-2-1
6.49
1-1-2
4.54
0-0-4
2.00
2-0-2
3.81
0-0-4
2.12
Jonava
1-2-1
4.87
 —
0-1-3
5.89
2-1-1
4.51
0-0-4
4.51
0-1-3
1.74
0-2-2
2.86
1-0-3
1.89
Kauno Zalgiris
3-0-1
4.83
3-1-0
5.29
 —
2-1-1
6.34
1-1-2
4.52
1-0-3
1.65
0-1-3
2.91
0-1-3
2.16
Palanga
1-2-1
4.68
1-1-2
6.66
1-1-2
4.83
 —
1-0-3
3.89
0-0-4
2.09
1-1-2
3.13
0-0-4
2.55
Stumbras
2-1-1
6.65
4-0-0
6.67
2-1-1
6.65
3-0-1
7.29
 —
0-0-4
2.32
1-2-1
4.04
1-2-1
2.75
Suduva
4-0-0
9.25
3-1-0
9.54
3-0-1
9.61
4-0-0
9.18
4-0-0
8.90
 —
2-2-0
7.84
1-1-2
6.75
Trakai
2-0-2
7.37
2-2-0
8.34
3-1-0
8.28
2-1-1
8.07
1-2-1
7.14
0-2-2
3.34
 —
1-1-2
3.75
Zalgiris
4-0-0
9.15
3-0-1
9.37
3-1-0
9.07
4-0-0
8.68
1-2-1
8.45
2-1-1
4.42
2-1-1
7.43
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +10.6
Allowed 0.87 -10.4
Differential 0.97 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.66%10.24%8.66%2.76%1.97%1.97%34.25%
110.24%9.45%5.12%3.54%1.97%1.18%31.50%
28.66%5.12%1.57%1.18%0.39%1.18%18.11%
32.76%3.54%1.18%———7.48%
41.97%1.97%0.39%———4.33%
5+1.97%1.18%1.18%———4.33%
Total34.25%31.50%18.11%7.48%4.33%4.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.16
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 127

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%6.06%9.09%6.06%3.03%6.06%36.36%
16.06%12.12%9.09%12.12%—6.06%45.45%
26.06%3.03%———6.06%15.15%
3——3.03%———3.03%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%21.21%21.21%18.18%3.03%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 2.27 -1.42
SD 0.80 1.82 2.05
CV 0.94 0.80 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%42.86%
1—17.86%10.71%10.71%——39.29%
2—7.14%——3.57%—10.71%
3—3.57%————3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total10.71%42.86%21.43%14.29%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.79 -0.93
SD 1.01 1.37 1.86
CV 1.18 0.77 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%9.09%3.03%3.03%—42.42%
118.18%9.09%3.03%—6.06%—36.36%
29.09%——3.03%—3.03%15.15%
3—3.03%————3.03%
43.03%—————3.03%
5+———————
Total39.39%30.30%12.12%6.06%9.09%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.24 -0.36
SD 0.99 1.44 1.82
CV 1.13 1.16 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%25.00%3.57%7.14%7.14%50.00%
110.71%14.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%42.86%
23.57%—————3.57%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%21.43%28.57%10.71%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.07 -1.46
SD 0.74 1.59 1.97
CV 1.21 0.77 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%6.06%18.18%6.06%——39.39%
19.09%6.06%3.03%—3.03%—21.21%
212.12%6.06%3.03%———21.21%
33.03%6.06%————9.09%
43.03%—————3.03%
5+3.03%3.03%————6.06%
Total39.39%27.27%24.24%6.06%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.06 +0.30
SD 1.56 1.09 2.21
CV 1.14 1.03 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.12%9.09%————21.21%
19.09%3.03%3.03%———15.15%
212.12%12.12%————24.24%
312.12%—3.03%———15.15%
4—12.12%3.03%———15.15%
5+6.06%—3.03%———9.09%
Total51.52%36.36%12.12%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 0.61 +1.58
SD 1.69 0.70 1.70
CV 0.77 1.16 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%————27.27%
112.12%12.12%6.06%—3.03%—33.33%
212.12%—6.06%3.03%——21.21%
36.06%6.06%————12.12%
4—3.03%————3.03%
5+—3.03%————3.03%
Total39.39%42.42%12.12%3.03%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.88 +0.52
SD 1.27 0.96 1.58
CV 0.91 1.09 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.12%6.06%————18.18%
115.15%3.03%3.03%———21.21%
212.12%12.12%3.03%3.03%——30.30%
3—6.06%3.03%———9.09%
46.06%—————6.06%
5+6.06%3.03%6.06%———15.15%
Total51.52%30.30%15.15%3.03%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 0.70 +1.42
SD 1.71 0.85 1.75
CV 0.81 1.22 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 33

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Zalgiris 1585 62 55.58 +6.42 85.0% 29 45 52 55 61 65 68
Suduva 1559 67 60.59 +6.41 91.0% 44 48 56 61 65 69 73
Trakai 1425 42 46.01 -4.01 29.0% 32 36 42 46 51 55 60
Stumbras 1296 45 36.46 +8.54 94.0% 22 26 32 36 42 46 50
Kauno Zalgiris 1211 35 27.38 +7.62 89.0% 12 14 23 28 32 38 42
Jonava 1047 19 25.93 -6.93 19.0% 9 14 22 26 31 37 43
Palanga 1000 20 28.10 -8.10 10.0% 11 18 23 28 33 39 43
Atlantas 966 23 32.88 -9.88 9.0% 17 22 28 33 38 44 48

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.15%
No Edge
38.58%19.69%41.73%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -10.95 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2-0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
71%
Suduva, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.17 * Some Luck: 5.17 to 7.76 * Lucky: 7.76 to 10.35 * Wild Swing: 10.35 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.67 * Close: 0.67 to 1 * Off: 1 to 1.33 * Way Off: 1.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.42 points
Some Luck
06.4716
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.832
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
94.00%
Stumbras
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.00%
Atlantas
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 224.28
2.57
Moderate Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
90%
Clear Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.31
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.48
Weak Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.049
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Suduva71.00%24.00%5.00%—————
Zalgiris26.00%62.00%11.00%———1.00%—
Stumbras—3.00%9.00%41.00%26.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%
Trakai3.00%10.00%68.00%13.00%6.00%———
Kauno Zalgiris——3.00%7.00%15.00%26.00%21.00%28.00%
Atlantas—1.00%3.00%26.00%25.00%18.00%16.00%11.00%
Palanga——1.00%7.00%16.00%25.00%29.00%22.00%
Jonava———6.00%12.00%20.00%26.00%36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Suduva 100% — —
Trakai 100% — —
Zalgiris 99.00% 1.00% —
Stumbras 90.00% 7.00% 3.00%
Atlantas 73.00% 16.00% 11.00%
Palanga 49.00% 29.00% 22.00%
Kauno Zalgiris 51.00% 21.00% 28.00%
Jonava 38.00% 26.00% 36.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Atlantas 100%
Kauno Zalgiris 100%
Stumbras 100%
Suduva 100%
Trakai 100%
Zalgiris 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-02-24 Atlantas L 0-147.4 1345 1231 54.53% 20.60% 24.87%+0.61 -27.1 0
2018-02-24 @ Trakai W 1-047.4 1231 1345 24.87% 20.60% 54.53%-0.61 +27.1 3
2018-02-24 Stumbras W 2-031.8 1390 1153 66.31% 19.74% 13.95%+1.34 +15.8 3
2018-02-24 @ Suduva L 0-231.8 1153 1390 13.95% 19.74% 66.31%-1.34 -15.8 0
2018-02-25 Jonava D 1-156.1 1316 1212 53.32% 20.65% 26.03%+0.55 -3.1 1
2018-02-25 @ Palanga D 1-156.1 1212 1316 26.03% 20.65% 53.32%-0.55 +3.1 1
2018-02-25 Kauno Zalgiris W 2-031.6 1337 1107 65.75% 19.80% 14.44%+1.30 +16.3 3
2018-02-25 @ Zalgiris L 0-231.6 1107 1337 14.44% 19.80% 65.75%-1.30 -16.3 0
2018-03-03 Palanga W 2-037.6 1406 1313 51.99% 20.70% 27.32%+0.49 +28.7 6
2018-03-03 @ Suduva L 0-237.6 1313 1406 27.32% 20.70% 51.99%-0.49 -28.7 1
2018-03-03 Trakai L 1-434.4 1090 1318 14.59% 19.82% 65.59%-1.42 -20.2 0
2018-03-03 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 4-134.4 1318 1090 65.59% 19.82% 14.59%+1.42 +20.2 3
2018-03-04 Atlantas D 1-155.8 1215 1258 33.60% 20.84% 45.56%-0.32 +1.3 2
2018-03-04 @ Jonava D 1-155.8 1258 1215 45.56% 20.84% 33.60%+0.32 -1.3 4
2018-03-04 Zalgiris D 0-051.3 1137 1353 15.48% 19.93% 64.59%-1.35 +6.6 1
2018-03-04 @ Stumbras D 0-051.3 1353 1137 64.59% 19.93% 15.48%+1.35 -6.6 4
2018-03-07 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-148.9 1257 1070 62.05% 20.16% 17.79%+1.04 -30.7 4
2018-03-07 @ Atlantas W 1-048.9 1070 1257 17.79% 20.16% 62.05%-1.04 +30.7 3
2018-03-07 Stumbras D 1-156.1 1338 1144 62.77% 20.10% 17.13%+1.09 -5.4 4
2018-03-07 @ Trakai D 1-156.1 1144 1338 17.13% 20.10% 62.77%-1.09 +5.4 2
2018-03-08 Jonava W 4-242.3 1434 1217 64.76% 19.91% 15.33%+1.23 +13.3 9
2018-03-08 @ Suduva L 2-442.3 1217 1434 15.33% 19.91% 64.76%-1.23 -13.4 2
2018-03-08 Palanga W 4-034.9 1346 1284 48.11% 20.80% 31.10%+0.30 +60.6 7
2018-03-08 @ Zalgiris L 0-434.9 1284 1346 31.10% 20.80% 48.11%-0.30 -60.6 1
2018-03-13 Trakai D 1-156.2 1224 1333 25.41% 20.63% 53.96%-0.71 +3.2 2
2018-03-13 @ Palanga D 1-156.2 1333 1224 53.96% 20.63% 25.41%+0.71 -3.2 5
2018-03-14 Atlantas L 0-236.2 1149 1226 29.20% 20.75% 50.05%-0.52 -30.3 2
2018-03-14 @ Stumbras W 2-036.2 1226 1149 50.05% 20.75% 29.20%+0.52 +30.3 7
2018-03-14 Zalgiris D 0-055.6 1448 1407 45.28% 20.84% 33.87%+0.18 -1.4 10
2018-03-14 @ Suduva D 0-055.6 1407 1448 33.87% 20.84% 45.28%-0.18 +1.4 8
2018-03-17 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-146.3 1203 1101 53.16% 20.66% 26.19%+0.54 -26.5 2
2018-03-17 @ Jonava W 1-046.3 1101 1203 26.19% 20.66% 53.16%-0.54 +26.5 6
2018-03-18 Palanga W 3-141.5 1330 1227 53.20% 20.66% 26.15%+0.55 +23.9 8
2018-03-18 @ Trakai L 1-341.5 1227 1330 26.15% 20.66% 53.20%-0.55 -24.0 2
2018-03-30 Jonava L 1-256.4 1408 1177 65.88% 19.79% 14.33%+1.31 -30.7 8
2018-03-30 @ Zalgiris W 2-156.4 1177 1408 14.33% 19.79% 65.88%-1.31 +30.7 5
2018-03-30 Palanga D 1-155.8 1257 1203 47.00% 20.82% 32.18%+0.25 -1.6 8
2018-03-30 @ Atlantas D 1-155.8 1203 1257 32.18% 20.82% 47.00%-0.25 +1.6 3
2018-03-31 Stumbras L 0-142.6 1127 1119 40.79% 20.87% 38.34%-0.01 -21.1 6
2018-03-31 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 1-042.6 1119 1127 38.34% 20.87% 40.79%+0.01 +21.1 5
2018-03-31 Suduva L 1-441.9 1354 1446 27.32% 20.70% 51.98%-0.62 -35.1 8
2018-03-31 @ Trakai W 4-141.9 1446 1354 51.98% 20.70% 27.32%+0.62 +35.1 13
2018-04-04 Jonava W 4-039.2 1140 1208 30.37% 20.78% 48.85%-0.47 +87.8 8
2018-04-04 @ Stumbras L 0-439.2 1208 1140 48.85% 20.78% 30.37%+0.47 -87.8 5
2018-04-05 Atlantas W 2-142.6 1482 1255 65.48% 19.83% 14.68%+1.28 +8.3 16
2018-04-05 @ Suduva L 1-242.6 1255 1482 14.68% 19.83% 65.48%-1.28 -8.3 8
2018-04-05 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-038.4 1205 1106 52.67% 20.67% 26.66%+0.52 +14.9 6
2018-04-05 @ Palanga L 0-138.4 1106 1205 26.66% 20.67% 52.67%-0.52 -14.9 6
2018-04-07 Trakai W 3-252.3 1378 1319 47.73% 20.80% 31.47%+0.29 +15.3 11
2018-04-07 @ Zalgiris L 2-352.3 1319 1378 31.47% 20.80% 47.73%-0.29 -15.3 8
2018-04-11 Palanga L 0-142.9 1228 1220 40.73% 20.87% 38.40%-0.02 -21.1 8
2018-04-11 @ Stumbras W 1-042.9 1220 1228 38.40% 20.87% 40.73%+0.02 +21.1 9
2018-04-11 Zalgiris L 2-540.0 1247 1393 21.51% 20.43% 58.06%-0.93 -24.8 8
2018-04-11 @ Atlantas W 5-240.0 1393 1247 58.06% 20.43% 21.51%+0.93 +24.8 14
2018-04-12 Jonava D 1-155.9 1303 1120 61.74% 20.18% 18.07%+1.03 -5.1 9
2018-04-12 @ Trakai D 1-155.9 1120 1303 18.07% 20.18% 61.74%-1.03 +5.1 6
2018-04-12 Kauno Zalgiris W 4-131.9 1490 1091 75.94% 17.87% 6.19%+2.30 +8.7 19
2018-04-12 @ Suduva L 1-431.9 1091 1490 6.19% 17.87% 75.94%-2.30 -8.7 6
2018-04-17 Palanga W 4-040.9 1125 1241 24.70% 20.60% 54.70%-0.75 +97.3 9
2018-04-17 @ Jonava L 0-440.9 1241 1125 54.70% 20.60% 24.70%+0.75 -97.3 9
2018-04-17 Suduva L 0-135.0 1207 1499 10.62% 19.18% 70.19%-1.80 -6.5 8
2018-04-17 @ Stumbras W 1-035.0 1499 1207 70.19% 19.18% 10.62%+1.80 +6.5 22
2018-04-18 Trakai L 0-236.6 1222 1298 29.31% 20.75% 49.93%-0.52 -30.4 8
2018-04-18 @ Atlantas W 2-036.6 1298 1222 49.93% 20.75% 29.31%+0.52 +30.4 12
2018-04-18 Zalgiris D 0-051.7 1083 1418 8.55% 18.68% 72.77%-2.06 +8.9 7
2018-04-18 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 0-051.7 1418 1083 72.77% 18.68% 8.55%+2.06 -8.9 15
2018-04-22 Stumbras D 1-156.7 1409 1200 64.00% 19.99% 16.01%+1.18 -5.7 16
2018-04-22 @ Zalgiris D 1-156.7 1200 1409 16.01% 19.99% 64.00%-1.18 +5.7 9
2018-04-24 Kauno Zalgiris W 2-031.4 1329 1091 66.31% 19.74% 13.95%+1.34 +15.8 15
2018-04-24 @ Trakai L 0-231.4 1091 1329 13.95% 19.74% 66.31%-1.34 -15.8 7
2018-04-24 Suduva L 0-230.1 1143 1505 7.47% 18.35% 74.18%-2.21 -8.6 9
2018-04-24 @ Palanga W 2-030.1 1505 1143 74.18% 18.35% 7.47%+2.21 +8.6 25
2018-04-25 Jonava W 1-043.7 1191 1222 35.24% 20.86% 43.90%-0.25 +22.4 11
2018-04-25 @ Atlantas L 0-143.7 1222 1191 43.90% 20.86% 35.24%+0.25 -22.4 9
2018-04-28 Suduva D 0-053.2 1200 1514 9.52% 18.94% 71.55%-1.93 +8.5 10
2018-04-28 @ Jonava D 0-053.2 1514 1200 71.55% 18.94% 9.52%+1.93 -8.5 26
2018-04-28 Zalgiris L 1-239.8 1135 1403 11.94% 19.43% 68.62%-1.66 -6.8 9
2018-04-28 @ Palanga W 2-139.8 1403 1135 68.62% 19.43% 11.94%+1.66 +6.8 19
2018-04-29 Atlantas L 2-347.7 1076 1214 22.33% 20.48% 57.19%-0.89 -11.5 7
2018-04-29 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 3-247.7 1214 1076 57.19% 20.48% 22.33%+0.89 +11.5 14
2018-04-29 Trakai L 0-234.5 1206 1344 22.29% 20.48% 57.23%-0.89 -24.1 9
2018-04-29 @ Stumbras W 2-034.5 1344 1206 57.23% 20.48% 22.29%+0.89 +24.1 18
2018-05-02 Trakai W 1-050.4 1128 1368 13.71% 19.71% 66.58%-1.49 +32.9 12
2018-05-02 @ Palanga L 0-150.4 1368 1128 66.58% 19.71% 13.71%+1.49 -32.9 18
2018-05-02 Suduva L 2-356.0 1410 1505 27.04% 20.69% 52.27%-0.63 -13.5 19
2018-05-02 @ Zalgiris W 3-256.0 1505 1410 52.27% 20.69% 27.04%+0.63 +13.5 29
2018-05-03 Jonava W 1-047.6 1064 1208 21.73% 20.45% 57.82%-0.92 +28.7 10
2018-05-03 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-147.6 1208 1064 57.82% 20.45% 21.73%+0.92 -28.7 10
2018-05-03 Stumbras D 0-050.8 1225 1182 45.66% 20.84% 33.51%+0.19 -1.5 15
2018-05-03 @ Atlantas D 0-050.8 1182 1225 33.51% 20.84% 45.66%-0.19 +1.5 10
2018-05-06 Trakai D 0-055.8 1519 1336 61.70% 20.19% 18.11%+1.02 -5.7 30
2018-05-06 @ Suduva D 0-055.8 1336 1519 18.11% 20.19% 61.70%-1.02 +5.7 19
2018-05-08 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-242.8 1183 1093 51.69% 20.71% 27.60%+0.47 -48.7 10
2018-05-08 @ Stumbras W 2-042.8 1093 1183 27.60% 20.71% 51.69%-0.47 +48.7 13
2018-05-08 Zalgiris L 1-241.2 1180 1396 15.40% 19.92% 64.68%-1.35 -8.7 10
2018-05-08 @ Jonava W 2-141.2 1396 1180 64.68% 19.92% 15.40%+1.35 +8.7 22
2018-05-09 Atlantas L 0-236.8 1161 1224 30.97% 20.79% 48.24%-0.44 -31.8 12
2018-05-09 @ Palanga W 2-036.8 1224 1161 48.24% 20.79% 30.97%+0.44 +31.8 18
2018-05-12 Suduva L 0-331.6 1256 1513 12.63% 19.55% 67.82%-1.59 -20.9 18
2018-05-12 @ Atlantas W 3-031.6 1513 1256 67.82% 19.55% 12.63%+1.59 +20.9 33
2018-05-12 Zalgiris L 0-142.2 1341 1405 30.86% 20.79% 48.35%-0.44 -16.8 19
2018-05-12 @ Trakai W 1-042.2 1405 1341 48.35% 20.79% 30.86%+0.44 +16.8 25
2018-05-13 Palanga D 0-050.7 1142 1129 41.37% 20.87% 37.76%+0.01 -0.4 14
2018-05-13 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 0-050.7 1129 1142 37.76% 20.87% 41.37%-0.01 +0.4 13
2018-05-13 Stumbras L 0-240.8 1171 1135 44.69% 20.85% 34.46%+0.15 -42.9 10
2018-05-13 @ Jonava W 2-040.8 1135 1171 34.46% 20.85% 44.69%-0.15 +42.9 13
2018-05-16 Trakai D 0-051.1 1128 1324 17.00% 20.09% 62.91%-1.23 +6.1 11
2018-05-16 @ Jonava D 0-051.1 1324 1128 62.91% 20.09% 17.00%+1.23 -6.1 20
2018-05-16 Stumbras L 0-237.3 1129 1177 32.91% 20.83% 46.26%-0.35 -33.5 13
2018-05-16 @ Palanga W 2-037.3 1177 1129 46.26% 20.83% 32.91%+0.35 +33.5 16
2018-05-19 Atlantas W 3-139.6 1422 1235 62.09% 20.16% 17.76%+1.05 +17.1 28
2018-05-19 @ Zalgiris L 1-339.6 1235 1422 17.76% 20.16% 62.09%-1.05 -17.1 18
2018-05-20 Jonava W 1-035.9 1318 1134 61.80% 20.18% 18.02%+1.03 +10.6 23
2018-05-20 @ Trakai L 0-135.9 1134 1318 18.02% 20.18% 61.80%-1.03 -10.6 11
2018-05-22 Stumbras W 3-029.9 1534 1211 72.07% 18.83% 9.09%+1.85 +15.2 36
2018-05-22 @ Suduva L 0-329.9 1211 1534 9.09% 18.83% 72.07%-1.85 -15.2 16
2018-05-23 Atlantas L 1-252.9 1329 1218 54.18% 20.62% 25.20%+0.60 -25.4 23
2018-05-23 @ Trakai W 2-152.9 1218 1329 25.20% 20.62% 54.18%-0.60 +25.4 21
2018-05-23 Zalgiris L 0-133.7 1141 1439 10.31% 19.12% 70.57%-1.84 -6.3 14
2018-05-23 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 1-033.7 1439 1141 70.57% 19.12% 10.31%+1.84 +6.3 31
2018-05-24 Jonava W 3-146.1 1096 1124 35.66% 20.86% 43.48%-0.23 +36.3 16
2018-05-24 @ Palanga L 1-346.1 1124 1096 43.48% 20.86% 35.66%+0.23 -36.3 11
2018-06-14 Trakai D 1-155.9 1135 1304 19.39% 20.29% 60.32%-1.07 +4.8 15
2018-06-14 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-155.9 1304 1135 60.32% 20.29% 19.39%+1.07 -4.8 24
2018-06-15 Atlantas W 2-153.8 1087 1243 20.59% 20.37% 59.04%-0.99 +27.6 14
2018-06-15 @ Jonava L 1-253.8 1243 1087 59.04% 20.37% 20.59%+0.99 -27.6 21
2018-06-16 Stumbras L 0-151.4 1445 1196 67.27% 19.62% 13.11%+1.42 -33.3 31
2018-06-16 @ Zalgiris W 1-051.4 1196 1445 13.11% 19.62% 67.27%-1.42 +33.3 19
2018-06-16 Suduva L 1-432.5 1132 1549 5.64% 17.62% 76.75%-2.54 -7.9 16
2018-06-16 @ Palanga W 4-132.5 1549 1132 76.75% 17.62% 5.64%+2.54 +7.9 39
2018-06-19 Trakai W 1-045.6 1229 1299 30.11% 20.77% 49.11%-0.48 +24.7 22
2018-06-19 @ Stumbras L 0-145.6 1299 1229 49.11% 20.77% 30.11%+0.48 -24.7 24
2018-06-20 Jonava W 2-029.3 1557 1115 77.79% 17.26% 4.95%+2.56 +5.7 42
2018-06-20 @ Suduva L 0-229.3 1115 1557 4.95% 17.26% 77.79%-2.56 -5.7 14
2018-06-20 Palanga W 2-030.7 1412 1124 69.92% 19.23% 10.85%+1.65 +12.4 34
2018-06-20 @ Zalgiris L 0-230.7 1124 1412 10.85% 19.23% 69.92%-1.65 -12.4 16
2018-06-27 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-237.9 1109 1140 35.29% 20.86% 43.86%-0.25 -35.4 14
2018-06-27 @ Jonava W 2-037.9 1140 1109 43.86% 20.86% 35.29%+0.25 +35.4 18
2018-06-27 Zalgiris L 0-156.9 1562 1424 57.18% 20.48% 22.34%+0.75 -28.3 42
2018-06-27 @ Suduva W 1-056.9 1424 1562 22.34% 20.48% 57.18%-0.75 +28.3 37
2018-07-01 Suduva L 0-328.7 1175 1534 7.57% 18.39% 74.05%-2.20 -12.7 18
2018-07-01 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 3-028.7 1534 1175 74.05% 18.39% 7.57%+2.20 +12.7 45
2018-07-03 Palanga W 2-033.9 1254 1112 57.58% 20.46% 21.96%+0.78 +23.8 25
2018-07-03 @ Stumbras L 0-233.9 1112 1254 21.96% 20.46% 57.58%-0.78 -23.8 16
2018-07-04 Suduva W 1-054.1 1162 1547 6.65% 18.06% 75.29%-2.35 +37.1 21
2018-07-04 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-154.1 1547 1162 75.29% 18.06% 6.65%+2.35 -37.1 45
2018-08-04 Atlantas W 3-030.1 1510 1216 70.33% 19.16% 10.51%+1.68 +17.5 48
2018-08-04 @ Suduva L 0-330.1 1216 1510 10.51% 19.16% 70.33%-1.68 -17.5 21
2018-08-04 Stumbras L 1-337.9 1074 1277 16.42% 20.03% 63.55%-1.27 -15.9 14
2018-08-04 @ Jonava W 3-137.9 1277 1074 63.55% 20.03% 16.42%+1.27 +15.9 28
2018-08-07 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-137.9 1088 1200 25.17% 20.62% 54.21%-0.73 -14.2 16
2018-08-07 @ Palanga W 1-037.9 1200 1088 54.21% 20.62% 25.17%+0.73 +14.2 24
2018-08-11 Atlantas W 2-044.0 1074 1198 23.78% 20.56% 55.66%-0.80 +52.1 19
2018-08-11 @ Palanga L 0-244.0 1198 1074 55.66% 20.56% 23.78%+0.80 -52.1 21
2018-08-11 Stumbras L 0-236.4 1214 1293 28.90% 20.74% 50.36%-0.54 -30.1 24
2018-08-11 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-036.4 1293 1214 50.36% 20.74% 28.90%+0.54 +30.1 31
2018-08-12 Trakai L 1-337.5 1058 1274 15.45% 19.93% 64.62%-1.35 -15.0 14
2018-08-12 @ Jonava W 3-137.5 1274 1058 64.62% 19.93% 15.45%+1.35 +15.0 27
2018-08-15 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-140.7 1146 1184 34.29% 20.85% 44.86%-0.29 -18.4 21
2018-08-15 @ Atlantas W 1-040.7 1184 1146 44.86% 20.85% 34.29%+0.29 +18.4 27
2018-08-18 Palanga W 3-148.3 1043 1126 28.47% 20.73% 50.80%-0.56 +41.5 17
2018-08-18 @ Jonava L 1-348.3 1126 1043 50.80% 20.73% 28.47%+0.56 -41.5 19
2018-08-19 Kauno Zalgiris W 4-029.3 1453 1202 67.36% 19.61% 13.03%+1.43 +28.1 40
2018-08-19 @ Zalgiris L 0-429.3 1202 1453 13.03% 19.61% 67.36%-1.43 -28.1 27
2018-08-19 Trakai L 0-233.4 1128 1289 20.04% 20.34% 59.62%-1.02 -22.0 21
2018-08-19 @ Atlantas W 2-033.4 1289 1128 59.62% 20.34% 20.04%+1.02 +22.0 30
2018-08-22 Jonava D 1-155.5 1106 1084 42.58% 20.87% 36.56%+0.06 -0.6 22
2018-08-22 @ Atlantas D 1-155.5 1084 1106 36.56% 20.87% 42.58%-0.06 +0.7 18
2018-08-22 Zalgiris L 0-237.0 1323 1481 20.41% 20.36% 59.22%-1.00 -22.3 31
2018-08-22 @ Stumbras W 2-037.0 1481 1323 59.22% 20.36% 20.41%+1.00 +22.3 43
2018-08-23 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-037.4 1311 1174 57.09% 20.49% 22.42%+0.75 +12.9 33
2018-08-23 @ Trakai L 0-137.4 1174 1311 22.42% 20.49% 57.09%-0.75 -12.8 27
2018-08-25 Atlantas W 2-141.2 1301 1105 62.89% 20.09% 17.02%+1.10 +9.5 34
2018-08-25 @ Stumbras L 1-241.2 1105 1301 17.02% 20.09% 62.89%-1.10 -9.5 22
2018-08-28 Atlantas W 4-033.7 1161 1095 48.57% 20.79% 30.64%+0.32 +59.9 30
2018-08-28 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-433.7 1095 1161 30.64% 20.79% 48.57%-0.32 -59.9 22
2018-08-29 Stumbras D 2-262.4 1324 1311 41.47% 20.87% 37.65%+0.01 -0.3 34
2018-08-29 @ Trakai D 2-262.4 1311 1324 37.65% 20.87% 41.47%-0.01 +0.3 35
2018-08-29 Zalgiris L 0-526.1 1084 1503 5.58% 17.59% 76.84%-2.55 -15.0 19
2018-08-29 @ Palanga W 5-026.1 1503 1084 76.84% 17.59% 5.58%+2.55 +14.9 46
2018-09-15 Palanga W 5-025.7 1527 1070 78.40% 17.03% 4.57%+2.65 +12.1 51
2018-09-15 @ Suduva L 0-525.7 1070 1527 4.57% 17.03% 78.40%-2.65 -12.2 19
2018-09-19 Jonava D 1-155.7 1221 1085 56.95% 20.49% 22.56%+0.74 -4.0 31
2018-09-19 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-155.7 1085 1221 22.56% 20.49% 56.95%-0.74 +4.0 19
2018-09-19 Stumbras L 1-336.2 1036 1311 11.55% 19.36% 69.09%-1.70 -11.4 22
2018-09-19 @ Atlantas W 3-136.2 1311 1036 69.09% 19.36% 11.55%+1.70 +11.4 38
2018-09-20 Palanga W 3-028.6 1324 1057 68.47% 19.46% 12.08%+1.52 +20.0 37
2018-09-20 @ Trakai L 0-328.6 1057 1324 12.08% 19.46% 68.47%-1.52 -20.0 19
2018-09-21 Suduva W 1-055.2 1518 1539 36.57% 20.87% 42.56%-0.19 +21.8 49
2018-09-21 @ Zalgiris L 0-155.2 1539 1518 42.56% 20.87% 36.57%+0.19 -21.8 51
2018-09-22 Kauno Zalgiris D 0-051.3 1322 1217 53.49% 20.64% 25.86%+0.56 -3.5 39
2018-09-22 @ Stumbras D 0-051.3 1217 1322 25.86% 20.64% 53.49%-0.56 +3.5 32
2018-09-25 Palanga D 1-155.5 1024 1037 37.68% 20.87% 41.45%-0.14 +0.4 23
2018-09-25 @ Atlantas D 1-155.5 1037 1024 41.45% 20.87% 37.68%+0.14 -0.4 20
2018-09-26 Suduva D 0-056.0 1344 1518 18.91% 20.25% 60.83%-1.10 +5.5 38
2018-09-26 @ Trakai D 0-056.0 1518 1344 60.83% 20.25% 18.91%+1.10 -5.5 52
2018-09-26 Zalgiris L 0-626.5 1089 1540 4.72% 17.13% 78.15%-2.75 -15.0 19
2018-09-26 @ Jonava W 6-026.5 1540 1089 78.15% 17.13% 4.72%+2.75 +15.0 52
2018-09-29 Trakai W 2-147.1 1512 1349 59.76% 20.33% 19.91%+0.90 +10.9 55
2018-09-29 @ Suduva L 1-247.1 1349 1512 19.91% 20.33% 59.76%-0.90 -10.9 38
2018-10-04 Jonava W 3-029.1 1319 1074 66.90% 19.67% 13.43%+1.39 +22.1 42
2018-10-04 @ Stumbras L 0-329.1 1074 1319 13.43% 19.67% 66.90%-1.39 -22.1 19
2018-10-04 Suduva L 2-532.9 1025 1523 3.70% 16.42% 79.88%-3.03 -4.4 23
2018-10-04 @ Atlantas W 5-232.9 1523 1025 79.88% 16.42% 3.70%+3.03 +4.4 58
2018-10-04 Zalgiris W 1-055.6 1338 1555 15.40% 19.92% 64.68%-1.35 +32.0 41
2018-10-04 @ Trakai L 0-155.6 1555 1338 64.68% 19.92% 15.40%+1.35 -32.0 52
2018-10-05 Palanga W 2-032.6 1220 1037 61.74% 20.18% 18.07%+1.03 +20.0 35
2018-10-05 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-232.6 1037 1220 18.07% 20.18% 61.74%-1.03 -20.0 20
2018-10-07 Suduva L 1-246.6 1341 1527 17.82% 20.16% 62.02%-1.17 -9.9 42
2018-10-07 @ Stumbras W 2-146.6 1527 1341 62.02% 20.16% 17.82%+1.17 +9.9 61
2018-10-07 Zalgiris L 1-528.4 1020 1523 3.62% 16.35% 80.03%-3.05 -6.4 23
2018-10-07 @ Atlantas W 5-128.4 1523 1020 80.03% 16.35% 3.62%+3.05 +6.4 55
2018-10-17 Jonava W 2-136.9 1529 1052 79.14% 16.73% 4.12%+2.77 +2.3 58
2018-10-17 @ Zalgiris L 1-236.9 1052 1529 4.12% 16.73% 79.14%-2.77 -2.3 19
2018-10-21 Trakai D 2-267.8 1532 1370 59.63% 20.34% 20.04%+0.90 -3.4 59
2018-10-21 @ Zalgiris D 2-267.8 1370 1532 20.04% 20.34% 59.63%-0.90 +3.4 42
2018-10-21 Suduva L 1-236.8 1050 1537 3.91% 16.58% 79.51%-2.96 -2.2 19
2018-10-21 @ Jonava W 2-136.8 1537 1050 79.51% 16.58% 3.91%+2.96 +2.2 64
2018-10-24 Atlantas W 3-133.3 1528 1014 80.43% 16.17% 3.40%+2.99 +3.3 62
2018-10-24 @ Zalgiris L 1-333.3 1014 1528 3.40% 16.17% 80.43%-2.99 -3.3 23
2018-10-24 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-036.1 1539 1240 70.64% 19.11% 10.25%+1.71 +6.2 67
2018-10-24 @ Suduva L 0-136.1 1240 1539 10.25% 19.11% 70.64%-1.71 -6.2 35
2018-10-24 Stumbras L 1-530.5 1017 1331 9.50% 18.93% 71.56%-1.93 -17.3 20
2018-10-24 @ Palanga W 5-130.5 1331 1017 71.56% 18.93% 9.50%+1.93 +17.3 45

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-10-28 Atlantas W 6-027.0 1348 1010 72.93% 18.65% 8.42%+1.94 +27.0 3
2018-10-28 @ Stumbras L 0-627.0 1010 1348 8.42% 18.65% 72.93%-1.94 -27.0 0
2018-10-28 Suduva D 1-159.2 1234 1546 9.63% 18.96% 71.41%-1.92 +7.6 1
2018-10-28 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 1-159.2 1546 1234 71.41% 18.96% 9.63%+1.92 -7.6 1
2018-10-28 Zalgiris L 0-142.9 1374 1532 20.37% 20.36% 59.27%-1.00 -11.8 0
2018-10-28 @ Trakai W 1-042.9 1532 1374 59.27% 20.36% 20.37%+1.00 +11.8 3
2018-10-31 Kauno Zalgiris L 1-336.5 983 1242 12.56% 19.53% 67.91%-1.60 -12.4 0
2018-10-31 @ Atlantas W 3-136.5 1242 983 67.91% 19.53% 12.56%+1.60 +12.4 4
2018-10-31 Trakai W 1-042.2 1538 1362 61.06% 20.24% 18.70%+0.98 +11.0 4
2018-10-31 @ Suduva L 0-142.2 1362 1538 18.70% 20.24% 61.06%-0.98 -11.0 0
2018-10-31 Stumbras W 2-040.0 1543 1375 60.28% 20.29% 19.43%+0.93 +21.4 6
2018-10-31 @ Zalgiris L 0-240.0 1375 1543 19.43% 20.29% 60.28%-0.93 -21.4 3
2018-11-03 Atlantas D 0-053.0 1565 971 82.82% 14.93% 2.26%+3.46 -11.1 7
2018-11-03 @ Zalgiris D 0-053.0 971 1565 2.26% 14.93% 82.82%-3.46 +11.1 1
2018-11-03 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-039.3 1351 1254 52.46% 20.68% 26.86%+0.51 +15.0 3
2018-11-03 @ Trakai L 0-139.3 1254 1351 26.86% 20.68% 52.46%-0.51 -15.0 4
2018-11-03 Suduva L 1-441.5 1354 1549 17.10% 20.10% 62.81%-1.22 -23.3 3
2018-11-03 @ Stumbras W 4-141.5 1549 1354 62.81% 20.10% 17.10%+1.22 +23.3 7
2018-11-07 Atlantas W 6-024.6 1572 982 82.72% 14.98% 2.30%+3.44 +7.0 10
2018-11-07 @ Suduva L 0-624.6 982 1572 2.30% 14.98% 82.72%-3.44 -7.0 1
2018-11-07 Kauno Zalgiris W 5-238.2 1554 1239 71.59% 18.93% 9.48%+1.80 +11.6 10
2018-11-07 @ Zalgiris L 2-538.2 1239 1554 9.48% 18.93% 71.59%-1.80 -11.6 4
2018-11-07 Trakai L 0-337.4 1331 1366 34.62% 20.85% 44.53%-0.27 -50.7 3
2018-11-07 @ Stumbras W 3-037.4 1366 1331 44.53% 20.85% 34.62%+0.27 +50.7 6
2018-11-11 Trakai L 1-528.6 975 1417 4.97% 17.27% 77.77%-2.69 -9.0 1
2018-11-11 @ Atlantas W 5-128.6 1417 975 77.77% 17.27% 4.97%+2.69 +9.0 9
2018-11-11 Stumbras L 1-246.3 1228 1280 32.36% 20.82% 46.83%-0.38 -16.5 4
2018-11-11 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-146.3 1280 1228 46.83% 20.82% 32.36%+0.38 +16.5 6
2018-11-11 Zalgiris L 1-263.5 1579 1565 41.57% 20.87% 37.55%+0.02 -20.2 10
2018-11-11 @ Suduva W 2-163.5 1565 1579 37.55% 20.87% 41.57%-0.02 +20.2 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-07-04 6.65% @ Kauno Zalgiris 1162 1 Suduva 1547 0
2 2018-06-16 13.11% Stumbras 1196 1 @ Zalgiris 1445 0
3 2018-05-02 13.71% @ Palanga 1128 1 Trakai 1368 0
4 2018-03-30 14.33% Jonava 1177 2 @ Zalgiris 1408 1
5 2018-10-04 15.40% @ Trakai 1338 1 Zalgiris 1555 0
6 2018-03-07 17.79% Kauno Zalgiris 1070 1 @ Atlantas 1257 0
7 2018-06-15 20.59% @ Jonava 1087 2 Atlantas 1243 1
8 2018-05-03 21.73% @ Kauno Zalgiris 1064 1 Jonava 1208 0
9 2018-06-27 22.34% Zalgiris 1424 1 @ Suduva 1562 0
10 2018-08-11 23.78% @ Palanga 1074 2 Atlantas 1198 0
11 2018-04-17 24.70% @ Jonava 1125 4 Palanga 1241 0
12 2018-02-24 24.87% Atlantas 1231 1 @ Trakai 1345 0
13 2018-05-23 25.20% Atlantas 1218 2 @ Trakai 1329 1
14 2018-03-17 26.19% Kauno Zalgiris 1101 1 @ Jonava 1203 0
15 2018-05-08 27.60% Kauno Zalgiris 1093 2 @ Stumbras 1183 0
16 2018-08-18 28.47% @ Jonava 1043 3 Palanga 1126 1
17 2018-06-19 30.11% @ Stumbras 1229 1 Trakai 1299 0
18 2018-04-04 30.37% @ Stumbras 1140 4 Jonava 1208 0
19 2018-05-13 34.46% Stumbras 1135 2 @ Jonava 1171 0
20 2018-04-25 35.24% @ Atlantas 1191 1 Jonava 1222 0
21 2018-05-24 35.66% @ Palanga 1096 3 Jonava 1124 1
22 2018-09-21 36.57% @ Zalgiris 1518 1 Suduva 1539 0
23 2018-11-11 37.55% Zalgiris 1565 2 @ Suduva 1579 1
24 2018-03-31 38.34% Stumbras 1119 1 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1127 0
25 2018-04-11 38.40% Palanga 1220 1 @ Stumbras 1228 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-04-17 97.29 @ Jonava 4 1125 24.70% Palanga 0 1241 54.70% 20.60%
2 2018-04-04 87.81 @ Stumbras 4 1140 30.37% Jonava 0 1208 48.85% 20.78%
3 2018-03-08 60.63 @ Zalgiris 4 1346 48.11% Palanga 0 1284 31.10% 20.80%
4 2018-08-28 59.90 @ Kauno Zalgiris 4 1161 48.57% Atlantas 0 1095 30.64% 20.79%
5 2018-08-11 52.12 @ Palanga 2 1074 23.78% Atlantas 0 1198 55.66% 20.56%
6 2018-11-07 50.66 Trakai 3 1366 44.53% @ Stumbras 0 1331 34.62% 20.85%
7 2018-05-08 48.68 Kauno Zalgiris 2 1093 27.60% @ Stumbras 0 1183 51.69% 20.71%
8 2018-05-13 42.87 Stumbras 2 1135 34.46% @ Jonava 0 1171 44.69% 20.85%
9 2018-08-18 41.49 @ Jonava 3 1043 28.47% Palanga 1 1126 50.80% 20.73%
10 2018-07-04 37.11 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1162 6.65% Suduva 0 1547 75.29% 18.06%
11 2018-05-24 36.29 @ Palanga 3 1096 35.66% Jonava 1 1124 43.48% 20.86%
12 2018-06-27 35.42 Kauno Zalgiris 2 1140 43.86% @ Jonava 0 1109 35.29% 20.86%
13 2018-03-31 35.14 Suduva 4 1446 51.98% @ Trakai 1 1354 27.32% 20.70%
14 2018-05-16 33.48 Stumbras 2 1177 46.26% @ Palanga 0 1129 32.91% 20.83%
15 2018-06-16 33.26 Stumbras 1 1196 13.11% @ Zalgiris 0 1445 67.27% 19.62%
16 2018-05-02 32.92 @ Palanga 1 1128 13.71% Trakai 0 1368 66.58% 19.71%
17 2018-10-04 31.99 @ Trakai 1 1338 15.40% Zalgiris 0 1555 64.68% 19.92%
18 2018-05-09 31.84 Atlantas 2 1224 48.24% @ Palanga 0 1161 30.97% 20.79%
19 2018-03-30 30.71 Jonava 2 1177 14.33% @ Zalgiris 1 1408 65.88% 19.79%
20 2018-03-07 30.69 Kauno Zalgiris 1 1070 17.79% @ Atlantas 0 1257 62.05% 20.16%
21 2018-04-18 30.43 Trakai 2 1298 49.93% @ Atlantas 0 1222 29.31% 20.75%
22 2018-03-14 30.33 Atlantas 2 1226 50.05% @ Stumbras 0 1149 29.20% 20.75%
23 2018-08-11 30.07 Stumbras 2 1293 50.36% @ Kauno Zalgiris 0 1214 28.90% 20.74%
24 2018-03-03 28.69 @ Suduva 2 1406 51.99% Palanga 0 1313 27.32% 20.70%
25 2018-05-03 28.66 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1064 21.73% Jonava 0 1208 57.82% 20.45%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-10-21 67.8 @ Zalgiris 2 1532 59.63% Trakai 2 1370 20.04% 20.34%
2 2018-11-11 63.5 Zalgiris 2 1565 37.55% @ Suduva 1 1579 41.57% 20.87%
3 2018-08-29 62.4 @ Trakai 2 1324 41.47% Stumbras 2 1311 37.65% 20.87%
4 2018-10-28 59.2 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1234 9.63% Suduva 1 1546 71.41% 18.96%
5 2018-06-27 56.9 Zalgiris 1 1424 22.34% @ Suduva 0 1562 57.18% 20.48%
6 2018-04-22 56.7 @ Zalgiris 1 1409 64.00% Stumbras 1 1200 16.01% 19.99%
7 2018-03-30 56.4 Jonava 2 1177 14.33% @ Zalgiris 1 1408 65.88% 19.79%
8 2018-03-13 56.2 @ Palanga 1 1224 25.41% Trakai 1 1333 53.96% 20.63%
9 2018-02-25 56.1 @ Palanga 1 1316 53.32% Jonava 1 1212 26.03% 20.65%
10 2018-03-07 56.1 @ Trakai 1 1338 62.77% Stumbras 1 1144 17.13% 20.10%
11 2018-05-02 56.0 Suduva 3 1505 52.27% @ Zalgiris 2 1410 27.04% 20.69%
12 2018-09-26 56.0 @ Trakai 0 1344 18.91% Suduva 0 1518 60.83% 20.25%
13 2018-04-12 55.9 @ Trakai 1 1303 61.74% Jonava 1 1120 18.07% 20.18%
14 2018-06-14 55.9 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1135 19.39% Trakai 1 1304 60.32% 20.29%
15 2018-03-04 55.8 @ Jonava 1 1215 33.60% Atlantas 1 1258 45.56% 20.84%
16 2018-03-30 55.8 @ Atlantas 1 1257 47.00% Palanga 1 1203 32.18% 20.82%
17 2018-05-06 55.8 @ Suduva 0 1519 61.70% Trakai 0 1336 18.11% 20.19%
18 2018-09-19 55.7 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1221 56.95% Jonava 1 1085 22.56% 20.49%
19 2018-03-14 55.6 @ Suduva 0 1448 45.28% Zalgiris 0 1407 33.87% 20.84%
20 2018-10-04 55.6 @ Trakai 1 1338 15.40% Zalgiris 0 1555 64.68% 19.92%
21 2018-08-22 55.5 @ Atlantas 1 1106 42.58% Jonava 1 1084 36.56% 20.87%
22 2018-09-25 55.5 @ Atlantas 1 1024 37.68% Palanga 1 1037 41.45% 20.87%
23 2018-09-21 55.2 @ Zalgiris 1 1518 36.57% Suduva 0 1539 42.56% 20.87%
24 2018-07-04 54.1 @ Kauno Zalgiris 1 1162 6.65% Suduva 0 1547 75.29% 18.06%
25 2018-06-15 53.8 @ Jonava 2 1087 20.59% Atlantas 1 1243 59.04% 20.37%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-11-07 24.6 @ Suduva 6 1572 82.72% Atlantas 0 982 2.30% 14.98%
2 2018-09-15 25.7 @ Suduva 5 1527 78.40% Palanga 0 1070 4.57% 17.03%
3 2018-08-29 26.1 Zalgiris 5 1503 76.84% @ Palanga 0 1084 5.58% 17.59%
4 2018-09-26 26.5 Zalgiris 6 1540 78.15% @ Jonava 0 1089 4.72% 17.13%
5 2018-10-28 27.0 @ Stumbras 6 1348 72.93% Atlantas 0 1010 8.42% 18.65%
6 2018-10-07 28.4 Zalgiris 5 1523 80.03% @ Atlantas 1 1020 3.62% 16.35%
7 2018-09-20 28.6 @ Trakai 3 1324 68.47% Palanga 0 1057 12.08% 19.46%
8 2018-11-11 28.6 Trakai 5 1417 77.77% @ Atlantas 1 975 4.97% 17.27%
9 2018-07-01 28.7 Suduva 3 1534 74.05% @ Kauno Zalgiris 0 1175 7.57% 18.39%
10 2018-10-04 29.1 @ Stumbras 3 1319 66.90% Jonava 0 1074 13.43% 19.67%
11 2018-06-20 29.3 @ Suduva 2 1557 77.79% Jonava 0 1115 4.95% 17.26%
12 2018-08-19 29.3 @ Zalgiris 4 1453 67.36% Kauno Zalgiris 0 1202 13.03% 19.61%
13 2018-05-22 29.9 @ Suduva 3 1534 72.07% Stumbras 0 1211 9.09% 18.83%
14 2018-04-24 30.1 Suduva 2 1505 74.18% @ Palanga 0 1143 7.47% 18.35%
15 2018-08-04 30.1 @ Suduva 3 1510 70.33% Atlantas 0 1216 10.51% 19.16%
16 2018-10-24 30.5 Stumbras 5 1331 71.56% @ Palanga 1 1017 9.50% 18.93%
17 2018-06-20 30.7 @ Zalgiris 2 1412 69.92% Palanga 0 1124 10.85% 19.23%
18 2018-04-24 31.4 @ Trakai 2 1329 66.31% Kauno Zalgiris 0 1091 13.95% 19.74%
19 2018-02-25 31.6 @ Zalgiris 2 1337 65.75% Kauno Zalgiris 0 1107 14.44% 19.80%
20 2018-05-12 31.6 Suduva 3 1513 67.82% @ Atlantas 0 1256 12.63% 19.55%
21 2018-02-24 31.8 @ Suduva 2 1390 66.31% Stumbras 0 1153 13.95% 19.74%
22 2018-04-12 31.9 @ Suduva 4 1490 75.94% Kauno Zalgiris 1 1091 6.19% 17.87%
23 2018-06-16 32.5 Suduva 4 1549 76.75% @ Palanga 1 1132 5.64% 17.62%
24 2018-10-05 32.6 @ Kauno Zalgiris 2 1220 61.74% Palanga 0 1037 18.07% 20.18%
25 2018-10-04 32.9 Suduva 5 1523 79.88% @ Atlantas 2 1025 3.70% 16.42%