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2019 A Lyga Season

127 games

Final

Champion

Suduva

75 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Suduva

12.49 points above expected

75 points · 62.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stumbras

13.49 points below expected

15 points · 28.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Suduva 28 25 0 3 75 74 15 +59 62.51 +12.49
2 Zalgiris 28 21 2 5 65 67 22 +45 62.34 +2.66
3 Riteriai 28 13 7 8 46 44 29 +15 50.44 -4.44
4 Kauno Zalgiris 28 13 5 10 44 48 39 +9 42.23 +1.77
5 Panevezys 28 8 7 13 31 41 53 -12 33.51 -2.51
6 Atlantas 28 7 5 16 26 26 53 -27 23.96 +2.04
7 Palanga 28 6 1 21 19 29 70 -41 18.43 +0.57
8 Stumbras 28 4 3 21 15 12 60 -48 28.49 -13.49
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Suduva 5 4 0 1 12 21 9 +12 87.34 -75.34
2 Riteriai 5 3 0 2 9 13 7 +6 53.52 -44.52
3 Zalgiris 5 3 0 2 9 12 7 +5 75.24 -66.24
4 Kauno Zalgiris 5 3 0 2 9 6 6 0 49.90 -40.90
5 Panevezys 5 2 0 3 6 8 10 -2 35.19 -29.19
6 Atlantas 5 0 0 5 0 4 25 -21 28.97 -28.97

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Suduva 75 62.51 +12.49
2 Zalgiris 65 62.34 +2.66
3 Atlantas 26 23.96 +2.04
4 Kauno Zalgiris 44 42.23 +1.77
5 Palanga 19 18.43 +0.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stumbras 15 28.49 -13.49
2 Riteriai 46 50.44 -4.44
3 Panevezys 31 33.51 -2.51
4 Palanga 19 18.43 +0.57
5 Kauno Zalgiris 44 42.23 +1.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 13 Jun 29 – Oct 26 1 in 44
2 Zalgiris 10 May 31 – Sep 13 1 in 18
3 Riteriai 4 Jun 1 – Jun 29 1 in 12
4 Kauno Zalgiris 4 Aug 17 – Sep 14 1 in 9
5 Panevezys 4 Aug 12 – Sep 1 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stumbras 18 May 18 – Oct 26 1 in 1,545
2 Panevezys 4 Mar 30 – Apr 19 1 in 11
3 Riteriai 2 Aug 17 – Aug 23 1 in 11
4 Palanga 6 Apr 27 – Jun 1 1 in 7
5 Suduva 2 Mar 31 – Apr 7 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Riteriai 8 May 4 – Jun 29 1 in 29
2 Panevezys 6 Jul 4 – Sep 1 1 in 14
3 Stumbras 4 Mar 2 – Mar 31 1 in 11
4 Atlantas 2 Apr 14 – Apr 20 1 in 9
5 Suduva 13 Jun 29 – Oct 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stumbras 22 Apr 20 – Oct 26 1 in 4,129
2 Panevezys 9 Mar 2 – May 5 1 in 32
3 Riteriai 3 Mar 3 – Mar 15 1 in 4
4 Kauno Zalgiris 4 Sep 21 – Oct 19 1 in 3
5 Suduva 2 Mar 31 – Apr 7 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Suduva 1712 87 -90 12 12.3 -0.3
Zalgiris 1590 74 -58 9 10.5 -1.5
Riteriai 1570 55 +93 9 8.0 +1.0
Kauno Zalgiris 1435 53 +53 9 6.2 +2.8
Panevezys 1388 37 +112 6 3.5 +2.5
Atlantas 1085 26 -111 0 2.8 -2.8
Palanga 1128 19 +78 6 3.2 +2.8
Stumbras 829 15 -83 0 2.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL KZ PAL PAN RIT STU SUD ZAL
Atlantas —
1-1-2
2.85
2-0-2
6.74
1-1-2
4.05
1-2-1
1.80
2-1-1
5.21
0-0-4
1.29
0-0-4
1.18
Kauno Zalgiris
2-1-1
8.65
 —
4-0-0
8.82
1-3-0
6.86
2-1-1
4.07
4-0-0
7.89
0-0-4
2.90
0-0-4
2.55
Palanga
2-0-2
4.76
0-0-4
2.69
 —
0-1-3
3.49
0-0-4
1.39
4-0-0
4.88
0-0-4
0.85
0-0-4
1.14
Panevezys
2-1-1
7.45
0-3-1
4.64
3-1-0
8.02
 —
1-1-2
3.33
2-1-1
6.20
0-0-4
1.78
0-0-4
2.24
Riteriai
1-2-1
9.71
1-1-2
7.44
4-0-0
10.13
2-1-1
8.18
 —
3-1-0
8.16
1-0-3
3.39
1-2-1
3.48
Stumbras
1-1-2
6.29
0-0-4
3.63
0-0-4
6.62
1-1-2
5.31
0-1-3
3.35
 —
1-0-3
1.61
1-0-3
1.63
Suduva
4-0-0
10.24
4-0-0
8.61
4-0-0
10.69
4-0-0
9.74
3-0-1
8.12
3-0-1
9.93
 —
3-0-1
6.19
Zalgiris
4-0-0
10.35
4-0-0
8.96
4-0-0
10.38
4-0-0
9.27
1-2-1
8.02
3-0-1
9.91
1-0-3
5.32
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +10.1
Allowed 0.93 -10.7
Differential 0.99 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.15%5.91%4.72%9.45%2.76%1.57%27.56%
15.91%7.09%8.27%4.33%1.97%1.97%29.53%
24.72%8.27%0.79%1.18%0.39%0.79%16.14%
39.45%4.33%1.18%0.79%0.79%—16.54%
42.76%1.97%0.39%0.79%——5.91%
5+1.57%1.97%0.79%———4.33%
Total27.56%29.53%16.14%16.54%5.91%4.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.59 +0.00
SD 1.51 1.51 2.48
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 127

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%6.06%9.09%6.06%9.09%6.06%42.42%
1—9.09%6.06%3.03%9.09%3.03%30.30%
26.06%9.09%—3.03%—3.03%21.21%
36.06%—————6.06%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%24.24%15.15%12.12%18.18%12.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 2.36 -1.45
SD 0.95 2.03 2.48
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%6.06%6.06%9.09%——24.24%
115.15%6.06%6.06%3.03%3.03%—33.33%
26.06%3.03%3.03%———12.12%
39.09%3.03%3.03%3.03%3.03%—21.21%
43.03%——3.03%——6.06%
5+—3.03%————3.03%
Total36.36%21.21%18.18%18.18%6.06%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.36 +0.27
SD 1.48 1.32 2.08
CV 0.90 0.97 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%32.14%
13.57%3.57%10.71%14.29%3.57%7.14%42.86%
2—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
310.71%—————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%17.86%28.57%14.29%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.50 -1.46
SD 0.96 1.62 2.28
CV 0.93 0.65 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.06%6.06%3.03%3.03%3.03%21.21%
1—15.15%15.15%6.06%—3.03%39.39%
26.06%6.06%3.03%——3.03%18.18%
36.06%3.03%—3.03%——12.12%
4—6.06%3.03%———9.09%
5+———————
Total12.12%36.36%27.27%12.12%3.03%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.91 -0.42
SD 1.23 1.57 2.25
CV 0.83 0.82 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%6.06%3.03%———18.18%
19.09%12.12%15.15%3.03%——39.39%
2—6.06%——3.03%—9.09%
39.09%12.12%3.03%———24.24%
43.03%—————3.03%
5+—3.03%3.03%———6.06%
Total30.30%39.39%24.24%3.03%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.09 +0.64
SD 1.42 0.98 1.73
CV 0.82 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%57.14%——71.43%
17.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
27.14%—————7.14%
3————3.57%—3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%7.14%10.71%57.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.43 2.14 -1.71
SD 0.79 1.30 1.72
CV 1.84 0.61 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.03%3.03%———6.06%
19.09%—3.03%——3.03%15.15%
29.09%18.18%————27.27%
315.15%6.06%————21.21%
49.09%6.06%————15.15%
5+6.06%6.06%3.03%———15.15%
Total48.48%39.39%9.09%——3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.88 0.73 +2.15
SD 1.90 1.01 2.27
CV 0.66 1.39 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.12%————12.12%
13.03%6.06%3.03%6.06%——18.18%
23.03%15.15%————18.18%
318.18%9.09%3.03%———30.30%
46.06%3.03%—3.03%——12.12%
5+6.06%3.03%————9.09%
Total36.36%48.48%6.06%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.88 +1.52
SD 1.48 0.89 1.95
CV 0.62 1.02 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 33

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Suduva 1712 75 62.51 +12.49 100.0% 48 53 58 62 67 72 75
Zalgiris 1590 65 62.34 +2.66 66.0% 47 49 57 63 67 72 78
Riteriai 1570 46 50.44 -4.44 21.0% 30 38 47 51 55 59 64
Kauno Zalgiris 1435 44 42.23 +1.77 59.0% 30 32 37 42 46 52 56
Panevezys 1388 31 33.51 -2.51 35.0% 22 23 28 33 38 44 47
Palanga 1128 19 18.43 +0.57 58.0% 6 9 15 18 22 29 31
Atlantas 1085 26 23.96 +2.04 70.0% 11 15 21 24 28 32 41
Stumbras 829 15 28.49 -13.49 1.0% 14 18 25 29 32 36 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.32%
Strong Edge
52.76%11.81%35.43%
Elo Value
Home Edge
188 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
060.80500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.40 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Suduva, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.83 * Some Luck: 4.83 to 7.25 * Lucky: 7.25 to 9.67 * Wild Swing: 9.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.42 * Close: 0.42 to 0.63 * Off: 0.63 to 0.84 * Way Off: 0.84 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.88 points
Some Luck
06.0415
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Close
00.531.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Suduva
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Stumbras
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 306.87
2.87
Wide Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
88%
Clear Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.41
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.51
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.69
Some Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Suduva49.00%45.00%6.00%—————
Zalgiris49.00%39.00%11.00%1.00%————
Riteriai2.00%14.00%65.00%16.00%1.00%2.00%——
Kauno Zalgiris—2.00%16.00%64.00%15.00%3.00%——
Panevezys——2.00%17.00%45.00%27.00%7.00%2.00%
Atlantas———1.00%7.00%22.00%49.00%21.00%
Palanga————3.00%7.00%24.00%66.00%
Stumbras———1.00%29.00%39.00%20.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Kauno Zalgiris 100% — —
Riteriai 100% — —
Suduva 100% — —
Zalgiris 100% — —
Panevezys 91.00% 7.00% 2.00%
Stumbras 69.00% 20.00% 11.00%
Atlantas 30.00% 49.00% 21.00%
Palanga 10.00% 24.00% 66.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Atlantas 100%
Kauno Zalgiris 100%
Panevezys 100%
Riteriai 100%
Suduva 100%
Zalgiris 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-03-02 Kauno Zalgiris W 2-042.1 1144 1293 31.81% 12.50% 55.70%-0.47 +64.0 3
2019-03-02 @ Atlantas L 0-242.1 1293 1144 55.70% 12.50% 31.81%+0.47 -64.0 0
2019-03-02 Panevezys W 1-039.9 1345 1337 53.36% 12.51% 34.13%+0.37 +21.8 3
2019-03-02 @ Stumbras L 0-139.9 1337 1345 34.13% 12.51% 53.36%-0.37 -21.8 0
2019-03-03 Palanga W 5-129.7 1523 1158 81.90% 11.92% 6.18%+2.27 +12.8 3
2019-03-03 @ Zalgiris L 1-529.7 1158 1523 6.18% 11.92% 81.90%-2.27 -12.8 0
2019-03-03 Riteriai W 2-148.9 1508 1428 62.04% 12.46% 25.50%+0.75 +15.8 3
2019-03-03 @ Suduva L 1-248.9 1428 1508 25.50% 12.46% 62.04%-0.75 -15.8 0
2019-03-09 Palanga W 6-132.7 1229 1145 62.51% 12.45% 25.04%+0.77 +60.2 3
2019-03-09 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 1-632.7 1145 1229 25.04% 12.45% 62.51%-0.77 -60.2 0
2019-03-09 Zalgiris L 0-334.8 1315 1536 23.37% 12.44% 64.19%-0.85 -42.4 0
2019-03-09 @ Panevezys W 3-034.8 1536 1315 64.19% 12.44% 23.37%+0.85 +42.4 6
2019-03-10 Suduva L 0-528.9 1208 1524 15.01% 12.31% 72.68%-1.36 -45.0 3
2019-03-10 @ Atlantas W 5-028.9 1524 1208 72.68% 12.31% 15.01%+1.36 +45.0 6
2019-03-11 Stumbras D 0-056.2 1412 1367 58.01% 12.49% 29.50%+0.57 -4.7 1
2019-03-11 @ Riteriai D 0-056.2 1367 1412 29.50% 12.49% 58.01%-0.57 +4.7 4
2019-03-15 Riteriai D 1-166.8 1578 1408 70.85% 12.34% 16.81%+1.23 -8.2 7
2019-03-15 @ Zalgiris D 1-166.8 1408 1578 16.81% 12.34% 70.85%-1.23 +8.2 2
2019-03-16 Atlantas W 2-029.8 1372 1163 73.76% 12.28% 13.96%+1.44 +18.0 7
2019-03-16 @ Stumbras L 0-229.8 1163 1372 13.96% 12.28% 73.76%-1.44 -18.0 3
2019-03-16 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-035.9 1569 1289 78.15% 12.14% 9.71%+1.82 +6.7 9
2019-03-16 @ Suduva L 0-135.9 1289 1569 9.71% 12.14% 78.15%-1.82 -6.7 3
2019-03-17 Panevezys D 1-157.4 1085 1273 27.01% 12.47% 60.52%-0.68 +4.9 1
2019-03-17 @ Palanga D 1-157.4 1273 1085 60.52% 12.47% 27.01%+0.68 -4.9 1
2019-03-30 Panevezys W 2-035.7 1282 1268 54.15% 12.51% 33.34%+0.40 +40.3 6
2019-03-30 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-235.7 1268 1282 33.34% 12.51% 54.15%-0.40 -40.3 1
2019-03-30 Zalgiris L 0-327.4 1145 1570 8.60% 12.08% 79.32%-1.94 -16.3 3
2019-03-30 @ Atlantas W 3-027.4 1570 1145 79.32% 12.08% 8.60%+1.94 +16.3 10
2019-03-31 Suduva W 2-051.8 1390 1576 27.27% 12.47% 60.26%-0.67 +69.0 10
2019-03-31 @ Stumbras L 0-251.8 1576 1390 60.26% 12.47% 27.27%+0.67 -69.0 9
2019-04-02 Palanga W 3-133.9 1416 1090 80.37% 12.02% 7.60%+2.06 +8.6 5
2019-04-02 @ Riteriai L 1-333.9 1090 1416 7.60% 12.02% 80.37%-2.06 -8.6 1
2019-04-06 Atlantas W 2-146.2 1081 1129 45.54% 12.53% 41.94%+0.07 +24.7 4
2019-04-06 @ Palanga L 1-246.2 1129 1081 41.94% 12.53% 45.54%-0.07 -24.7 3
2019-04-06 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-151.5 1459 1323 67.84% 12.39% 19.77%+1.05 -41.2 10
2019-04-06 @ Stumbras W 1-051.5 1323 1459 19.77% 12.39% 67.84%-1.05 +41.2 9
2019-04-07 Riteriai L 1-242.7 1227 1425 25.94% 12.46% 61.60%-0.73 -16.1 1
2019-04-07 @ Panevezys W 2-142.7 1425 1227 61.60% 12.46% 25.94%+0.73 +16.1 8
2019-04-07 Suduva W 1-048.9 1587 1507 62.07% 12.46% 25.47%+0.75 +16.8 13
2019-04-07 @ Zalgiris L 0-148.9 1507 1587 25.47% 12.46% 62.07%-0.75 -16.8 9
2019-04-13 Riteriai W 3-148.8 1364 1441 41.43% 12.52% 46.05%-0.09 +46.5 12
2019-04-13 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 1-348.8 1441 1364 46.05% 12.52% 41.43%+0.09 -46.5 8
2019-04-13 Zalgiris W 1-056.8 1418 1603 27.27% 12.47% 60.25%-0.67 +36.6 13
2019-04-13 @ Stumbras L 0-156.8 1603 1418 60.25% 12.47% 27.27%+0.67 -36.6 13
2019-04-14 Palanga W 3-025.3 1490 1106 82.54% 11.87% 5.59%+2.37 +10.7 12
2019-04-14 @ Suduva L 0-325.3 1106 1490 5.59% 11.87% 82.54%-2.37 -10.7 4
2019-04-14 Panevezys W 2-148.8 1104 1211 37.26% 12.52% 50.22%-0.25 +29.0 6
2019-04-14 @ Atlantas L 1-248.8 1211 1104 50.22% 12.52% 37.26%+0.25 -29.0 1
2019-04-19 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-145.8 1567 1410 69.66% 12.37% 17.98%+1.16 +19.8 16
2019-04-19 @ Zalgiris L 1-345.8 1410 1567 17.98% 12.37% 69.66%-1.16 -19.8 12
2019-04-19 Suduva L 1-239.6 1182 1500 14.80% 12.30% 72.90%-1.37 -9.5 1
2019-04-19 @ Panevezys W 2-139.6 1500 1182 72.90% 12.30% 14.80%+1.37 +9.5 15
2019-04-20 Atlantas D 0-053.6 1394 1133 77.11% 12.18% 10.71%+1.71 -11.5 9
2019-04-20 @ Riteriai D 0-053.6 1133 1394 10.71% 12.18% 77.11%-1.71 +11.4 7
2019-04-20 Stumbras W 2-156.9 1095 1454 12.05% 12.22% 75.72%-1.59 +43.5 7
2019-04-20 @ Palanga L 1-256.9 1454 1095 75.72% 12.22% 12.05%+1.59 -43.5 13
2019-04-27 Atlantas W 2-137.6 1390 1145 76.21% 12.21% 11.58%+1.63 +7.5 15
2019-04-27 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 1-237.6 1145 1390 11.58% 12.21% 76.21%-1.63 -7.5 7
2019-04-27 Stumbras D 1-158.1 1173 1411 21.65% 12.42% 65.93%-0.95 +6.6 2
2019-04-27 @ Panevezys D 1-158.1 1411 1173 65.93% 12.42% 21.65%+0.95 -6.6 14
2019-04-27 Suduva L 1-250.1 1383 1510 34.53% 12.51% 52.96%-0.35 -20.8 9
2019-04-27 @ Riteriai W 2-150.1 1510 1383 52.96% 12.51% 34.53%+0.35 +20.8 18
2019-04-27 Zalgiris L 1-433.0 1138 1586 7.61% 12.02% 80.37%-2.06 -12.2 7
2019-04-27 @ Palanga W 4-133.0 1586 1138 80.37% 12.02% 7.61%+2.06 +12.2 19
2019-05-04 Riteriai L 0-343.1 1404 1362 57.64% 12.49% 29.87%+0.55 -96.0 14
2019-05-04 @ Stumbras W 3-043.1 1362 1404 29.87% 12.49% 57.64%-0.55 +96.0 12
2019-05-05 Atlantas W 4-024.9 1531 1137 82.84% 11.84% 5.31%+2.42 +13.3 21
2019-05-05 @ Suduva L 0-424.9 1137 1531 5.31% 11.84% 82.84%-2.42 -13.3 7
2019-05-05 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-328.9 1126 1398 18.52% 12.37% 69.10%-1.12 -34.1 7
2019-05-05 @ Palanga W 3-028.9 1398 1126 69.10% 12.37% 18.52%+1.12 +34.1 18
2019-05-05 Panevezys W 2-137.9 1599 1179 83.62% 11.77% 4.61%+2.56 +3.0 22
2019-05-05 @ Zalgiris L 1-237.9 1179 1599 4.61% 11.77% 83.62%-2.56 -3.0 2
2019-05-11 Suduva L 0-342.9 1432 1544 36.57% 12.52% 50.92%-0.27 -63.6 18
2019-05-11 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 3-042.9 1544 1432 50.92% 12.52% 36.57%+0.27 +63.6 24
2019-05-11 Zalgiris W 1-056.7 1458 1602 32.37% 12.50% 55.13%-0.44 +33.6 15
2019-05-11 @ Riteriai L 0-156.7 1602 1458 55.13% 12.50% 32.37%+0.44 -33.6 22
2019-05-12 Palanga W 2-141.1 1176 1092 62.53% 12.45% 25.02%+0.77 +15.5 5
2019-05-12 @ Panevezys L 1-241.1 1092 1176 25.02% 12.45% 62.53%-0.77 -15.5 7
2019-05-12 Stumbras D 0-053.2 1124 1308 27.45% 12.47% 60.07%-0.66 +5.4 8
2019-05-12 @ Atlantas D 0-053.2 1308 1124 60.07% 12.47% 27.45%+0.66 -5.4 15
2019-05-17 Atlantas W 3-025.7 1568 1129 84.14% 11.71% 4.15%+2.66 +8.0 25
2019-05-17 @ Zalgiris L 0-325.7 1129 1568 4.15% 11.71% 84.14%-2.66 -8.0 8
2019-05-18 Kauno Zalgiris D 1-158.0 1192 1368 28.32% 12.48% 59.20%-0.62 +4.5 6
2019-05-18 @ Panevezys D 1-158.0 1368 1192 59.20% 12.48% 28.32%+0.62 -4.5 19
2019-05-18 Riteriai L 1-334.6 1077 1492 9.05% 12.11% 78.84%-1.89 -10.2 7
2019-05-18 @ Palanga W 3-134.6 1492 1077 78.84% 12.11% 9.05%+1.89 +10.2 18
2019-05-18 Stumbras W 2-034.3 1608 1303 79.40% 12.08% 8.52%+1.95 +11.1 27
2019-05-18 @ Suduva L 0-234.3 1303 1608 8.52% 12.08% 79.40%-1.95 -11.1 15
2019-05-21 Palanga W 2-142.1 1121 1066 59.20% 12.48% 28.32%+0.62 +17.4 11
2019-05-21 @ Atlantas L 1-242.1 1066 1121 28.32% 12.48% 59.20%-0.62 -17.4 7
2019-05-21 Panevezys D 1-159.3 1502 1196 79.43% 12.08% 8.49%+1.95 -11.0 19
2019-05-21 @ Riteriai D 1-159.3 1196 1502 8.49% 12.08% 79.43%-1.95 +11.0 7
2019-05-22 Stumbras W 4-351.6 1364 1292 61.20% 12.47% 26.33%+0.71 +15.1 22
2019-05-22 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 3-451.6 1292 1364 26.33% 12.47% 61.20%-0.71 -15.1 15
2019-05-22 Zalgiris W 1-053.1 1619 1576 57.70% 12.49% 29.81%+0.55 +19.3 30
2019-05-22 @ Suduva L 0-153.1 1576 1619 29.81% 12.49% 57.70%-0.55 -19.3 25
2019-05-31 Stumbras W 2-140.8 1557 1277 78.17% 12.14% 9.69%+1.82 +6.3 28
2019-05-31 @ Zalgiris L 1-240.8 1277 1557 9.69% 12.14% 78.17%-1.82 -6.3 15
2019-06-01 Kauno Zalgiris W 1-040.0 1491 1379 65.45% 12.42% 22.13%+0.92 +14.7 22
2019-06-01 @ Riteriai L 0-140.0 1379 1491 22.13% 12.42% 65.45%-0.92 -14.7 22
2019-06-01 Suduva L 0-227.6 1049 1638 3.55% 11.61% 84.84%-2.82 -4.7 7
2019-06-01 @ Palanga W 2-027.6 1638 1049 84.84% 11.61% 3.55%+2.82 +4.7 33
2019-06-02 Atlantas W 4-136.7 1207 1139 60.76% 12.47% 26.77%+0.69 +40.5 10
2019-06-02 @ Panevezys L 1-436.7 1139 1207 26.77% 12.47% 60.76%-0.69 -40.5 11
2019-06-14 Riteriai L 2-343.0 1098 1505 9.43% 12.12% 78.45%-1.85 -5.8 11
2019-06-14 @ Atlantas W 3-243.0 1505 1098 78.45% 12.12% 9.43%+1.85 +5.8 25
2019-06-14 Zalgiris L 3-457.3 1364 1563 25.78% 12.46% 61.76%-0.74 -14.8 22
2019-06-14 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 4-357.3 1563 1364 61.76% 12.46% 25.78%+0.74 +14.8 31
2019-06-15 Palanga L 0-345.4 1270 1044 74.96% 12.25% 12.79%+1.53 -125.1 15
2019-06-15 @ Stumbras W 3-045.4 1044 1270 12.79% 12.25% 74.96%-1.53 +125.1 10
2019-06-15 Panevezys W 2-141.1 1643 1248 82.89% 11.84% 5.27%+2.43 +3.5 36
2019-06-15 @ Suduva L 1-241.1 1248 1643 5.27% 11.84% 82.89%-2.43 -3.5 10
2019-06-22 Kauno Zalgiris D 1-157.6 1093 1350 19.85% 12.39% 67.75%-1.05 +7.2 12
2019-06-22 @ Atlantas D 1-157.6 1350 1093 67.75% 12.39% 19.85%+1.05 -7.2 23
2019-06-22 Panevezys L 0-334.6 1145 1244 38.32% 12.52% 49.16%-0.20 -66.4 15
2019-06-22 @ Stumbras W 3-034.6 1244 1145 49.16% 12.52% 38.32%+0.20 +66.3 13
2019-06-22 Riteriai L 1-269.2 1646 1511 67.72% 12.40% 19.89%+1.04 -38.8 36
2019-06-22 @ Suduva W 2-169.2 1511 1646 19.89% 12.40% 67.72%-1.04 +38.8 28
2019-06-23 Palanga W 3-243.2 1578 1169 83.30% 11.80% 4.90%+2.50 +3.1 34
2019-06-23 @ Zalgiris L 2-343.2 1169 1578 4.90% 11.80% 83.30%-2.50 -3.1 10
2019-06-29 Atlantas W 4-131.1 1608 1100 85.68% 11.48% 2.84%+3.03 +4.6 39
2019-06-29 @ Suduva L 1-431.1 1100 1608 2.84% 11.48% 85.68%-3.03 -4.6 12
2019-06-29 Palanga W 4-027.3 1342 1166 71.30% 12.34% 16.36%+1.26 +39.7 26
2019-06-29 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-427.3 1166 1342 16.36% 12.34% 71.30%-1.26 -39.7 10
2019-06-29 Stumbras W 3-024.8 1550 1079 84.92% 11.60% 3.48%+2.84 +6.7 31
2019-06-29 @ Riteriai L 0-324.8 1079 1550 3.48% 11.60% 84.92%-2.84 -6.7 15
2019-06-29 Zalgiris L 0-236.8 1311 1581 18.65% 12.38% 68.97%-1.12 -23.6 13
2019-06-29 @ Panevezys W 2-036.8 1581 1311 68.97% 12.38% 18.65%+1.12 +23.6 37
2019-07-03 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-036.3 1612 1382 75.24% 12.24% 12.52%+1.55 +23.5 42
2019-07-03 @ Suduva L 0-336.3 1382 1612 12.52% 12.24% 75.24%-1.55 -23.5 26
2019-07-04 Panevezys L 1-242.9 1127 1287 30.29% 12.49% 57.22%-0.53 -18.5 10
2019-07-04 @ Palanga W 2-142.9 1287 1127 57.22% 12.49% 30.29%+0.53 +18.5 16
2019-07-05 Riteriai W 2-157.7 1605 1557 58.33% 12.49% 29.18%+0.58 +17.9 40
2019-07-05 @ Zalgiris L 1-257.7 1557 1605 29.18% 12.49% 58.33%-0.58 -17.9 31
2019-07-06 Atlantas L 0-337.6 1072 1095 49.09% 12.52% 38.39%+0.20 -82.6 15
2019-07-06 @ Stumbras W 3-037.6 1095 1072 38.39% 12.52% 49.09%-0.20 +82.6 15
2019-08-03 Palanga W 1-030.3 1539 1108 83.93% 11.73% 4.34%+2.62 +3.0 34
2019-08-03 @ Riteriai L 0-130.3 1108 1539 4.34% 11.73% 83.93%-2.62 -3.0 10
2019-08-03 Panevezys D 2-265.0 1358 1306 58.95% 12.48% 28.57%+0.61 -3.3 27
2019-08-03 @ Kauno Zalgiris D 2-265.0 1306 1358 28.57% 12.48% 58.95%-0.61 +3.3 17
2019-08-03 Stumbras W 3-023.9 1636 990 87.73% 10.96% 1.32%+3.77 +2.5 45
2019-08-03 @ Suduva L 0-323.9 990 1636 1.32% 10.96% 87.73%-3.77 -2.5 15
2019-08-04 Zalgiris L 1-337.1 1178 1622 7.74% 12.03% 80.23%-2.05 -8.8 15
2019-08-04 @ Atlantas W 3-137.1 1622 1178 80.23% 12.03% 7.74%+2.05 +8.8 43
2019-08-10 Atlantas D 1-159.5 1542 1169 82.16% 11.90% 5.94%+2.31 -11.9 35
2019-08-10 @ Riteriai D 1-159.5 1169 1542 5.94% 11.90% 82.16%-2.31 +11.9 16
2019-08-11 Kauno Zalgiris W 3-035.2 1631 1355 77.95% 12.14% 9.90%+1.80 +18.7 46
2019-08-11 @ Zalgiris L 0-335.2 1355 1631 9.90% 12.14% 77.95%-1.80 -18.7 27
2019-08-11 Stumbras W 3-029.3 1105 987 66.08% 12.42% 21.51%+0.95 +39.2 13
2019-08-11 @ Palanga L 0-329.3 987 1105 21.51% 12.42% 66.08%-0.95 -39.2 15
2019-08-12 Palanga W 3-136.7 1309 1144 70.35% 12.35% 17.30%+1.20 +19.1 20
2019-08-12 @ Panevezys L 1-336.7 1144 1309 17.30% 12.35% 70.35%-1.20 -19.1 13
2019-08-17 Riteriai W 1-051.7 1336 1530 26.37% 12.47% 61.16%-0.71 +37.1 30
2019-08-17 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-151.7 1530 1336 61.16% 12.47% 26.37%+0.71 -37.1 35
2019-08-18 Panevezys L 0-235.1 1181 1328 31.96% 12.50% 55.54%-0.46 -38.8 16
2019-08-18 @ Atlantas W 2-035.1 1328 1181 55.54% 12.50% 31.96%+0.46 +38.8 23
2019-08-18 Zalgiris L 0-324.0 948 1650 1.90% 11.21% 86.89%-3.42 -3.6 15
2019-08-18 @ Stumbras W 3-024.0 1650 948 86.89% 11.21% 1.90%+3.42 +3.6 49
2019-08-23 Riteriai W 4-256.7 1367 1493 34.67% 12.51% 52.82%-0.35 +47.1 26
2019-08-23 @ Panevezys L 2-456.7 1493 1367 52.82% 12.51% 34.67%+0.35 -47.1 35
2019-08-24 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-325.4 944 1374 8.39% 12.07% 79.53%-1.96 -16.0 15
2019-08-24 @ Stumbras W 3-025.4 1374 944 79.53% 12.07% 8.39%+1.96 +16.0 33
2019-08-25 Atlantas L 0-240.1 1125 1142 49.94% 12.52% 37.54%+0.23 -57.8 13
2019-08-25 @ Palanga W 2-040.1 1142 1125 37.54% 12.52% 49.94%-0.23 +57.8 19
2019-08-31 Atlantas W 1-033.4 1390 1200 72.37% 12.31% 15.32%+1.34 +10.4 36
2019-08-31 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-133.4 1200 1390 15.32% 12.31% 72.37%-1.34 -10.4 19
2019-08-31 Zalgiris L 0-425.0 1067 1654 3.61% 11.62% 84.77%-2.80 -9.0 13
2019-08-31 @ Palanga W 4-025.0 1654 1067 84.77% 11.62% 3.61%+2.80 +9.0 52
2019-09-01 Stumbras W 3-023.7 1414 928 85.23% 11.55% 3.21%+2.91 +6.2 29
2019-09-01 @ Panevezys L 0-323.7 928 1414 3.21% 11.55% 85.23%-2.91 -6.1 15
2019-09-13 Atlantas W 4-027.2 1638 1189 84.39% 11.68% 3.93%+2.72 +9.8 48
2019-09-13 @ Suduva L 0-427.2 1189 1638 3.93% 11.68% 84.39%-2.72 -9.8 19
2019-09-13 Panevezys W 5-038.5 1663 1420 76.03% 12.22% 11.76%+1.62 +35.6 55
2019-09-13 @ Zalgiris L 0-538.5 1420 1663 11.76% 12.22% 76.03%-1.62 -35.6 29
2019-09-14 Kauno Zalgiris L 2-343.5 1058 1400 13.19% 12.26% 74.55%-1.50 -8.1 13
2019-09-14 @ Palanga W 3-243.5 1400 1058 74.55% 12.26% 13.19%+1.50 +8.1 39
2019-09-14 Riteriai L 0-324.3 922 1446 5.07% 11.82% 83.11%-2.47 -9.7 15
2019-09-14 @ Stumbras W 3-024.3 1446 922 83.11% 11.82% 5.07%+2.47 +9.7 38
2019-09-21 Stumbras W 3-025.9 1180 912 77.47% 12.16% 10.37%+1.75 +19.6 22
2019-09-21 @ Atlantas L 0-325.9 912 1180 10.37% 12.16% 77.47%-1.75 -19.6 15
2019-09-21 Suduva L 0-243.5 1408 1648 21.47% 12.42% 66.12%-0.96 -27.0 39
2019-09-21 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-043.5 1648 1408 66.12% 12.42% 21.47%+0.96 +27.0 51
2019-09-21 Zalgiris D 1-172.5 1455 1698 21.19% 12.41% 66.40%-0.97 +6.8 39
2019-09-21 @ Riteriai D 1-172.5 1698 1455 66.40% 12.41% 21.19%+0.97 -6.8 56
2019-09-24 Suduva L 2-743.3 1384 1675 16.93% 12.35% 70.72%-1.22 -35.0 29
2019-09-24 @ Panevezys W 7-243.3 1675 1384 70.72% 12.35% 16.93%+1.22 +35.0 54
2019-09-25 Atlantas W 4-028.7 1692 1199 85.37% 11.53% 3.10%+2.95 +7.7 59
2019-09-25 @ Zalgiris L 0-428.7 1199 1692 3.10% 11.53% 85.37%-2.95 -7.8 22
2019-09-25 Riteriai L 1-334.4 1050 1462 9.20% 12.11% 78.69%-1.87 -10.4 13
2019-09-25 @ Palanga W 3-134.4 1462 1050 78.69% 12.11% 9.20%+1.87 +10.4 42
2019-09-25 Suduva L 0-323.6 893 1710 1.00% 10.75% 88.25%-4.03 -1.9 15
2019-09-25 @ Stumbras W 3-023.6 1710 893 88.25% 10.75% 1.00%+4.03 +1.9 57
2019-09-28 Kauno Zalgiris D 3-370.2 1349 1381 47.88% 12.52% 39.59%+0.16 -0.7 30
2019-09-28 @ Panevezys D 3-370.2 1381 1349 39.59% 12.52% 47.88%-0.16 +0.7 40
2019-10-02 Palanga W 5-024.6 1712 1040 88.01% 10.85% 1.14%+3.91 +3.5 60
2019-10-02 @ Suduva L 0-524.6 1040 1712 1.14% 10.85% 88.01%-3.91 -3.5 13
2019-10-05 Palanga L 0-332.5 891 1036 32.15% 12.50% 55.35%-0.45 -56.7 15
2019-10-05 @ Stumbras W 3-032.5 1036 891 55.35% 12.50% 32.15%+0.45 +56.7 16
2019-10-05 Panevezys W 3-145.3 1715 1349 81.94% 11.92% 6.14%+2.28 +7.0 63
2019-10-05 @ Suduva L 1-345.3 1349 1715 6.14% 11.92% 81.94%-2.28 -7.0 30
2019-10-05 Riteriai W 2-156.0 1191 1473 17.72% 12.36% 69.92%-1.17 +40.0 25
2019-10-05 @ Atlantas L 1-256.0 1473 1191 69.92% 12.36% 17.72%+1.17 -40.0 42
2019-10-05 Zalgiris L 1-250.9 1382 1699 14.85% 12.30% 72.84%-1.37 -9.5 40
2019-10-05 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-150.9 1699 1382 72.84% 12.30% 14.85%+1.37 +9.5 62
2019-10-12 Suduva L 0-426.5 1093 1722 2.85% 11.48% 85.67%-3.03 -7.1 16
2019-10-12 @ Palanga W 4-026.5 1722 1093 85.67% 11.48% 2.85%+3.03 +7.1 66
2019-10-15 Suduva L 1-253.9 1433 1729 16.42% 12.34% 71.24%-1.26 -10.5 42
2019-10-15 @ Riteriai W 2-153.9 1729 1433 71.24% 12.34% 16.42%+1.26 +10.5 69
2019-10-19 Atlantas D 1-158.0 1342 1231 65.29% 12.43% 22.28%+0.91 -6.4 31
2019-10-19 @ Panevezys D 1-158.0 1231 1342 22.28% 12.43% 65.29%-0.91 +6.4 26
2019-10-19 Kauno Zalgiris D 0-056.5 1422 1372 58.57% 12.48% 28.95%+0.59 -4.8 43
2019-10-19 @ Riteriai D 0-056.5 1372 1422 28.95% 12.48% 58.57%-0.59 +4.8 41
2019-10-19 Stumbras W 3-022.8 1709 834 89.69% 9.95% 0.37%+4.99 +0.7 65
2019-10-19 @ Zalgiris L 0-322.8 834 1709 0.37% 9.95% 89.69%-4.99 -0.7 15
2019-10-20 Suduva L 1-365.0 1709 1740 48.05% 12.52% 39.43%+0.16 -48.3 65
2019-10-20 @ Zalgiris W 3-165.0 1740 1709 39.43% 12.52% 48.05%-0.16 +48.3 72
2019-10-26 Palanga L 0-148.8 1238 1086 69.25% 12.37% 18.38%+1.13 -42.1 26
2019-10-26 @ Atlantas W 1-048.8 1086 1238 18.38% 12.37% 69.25%-1.13 +42.1 19
2019-10-26 Panevezys W 4-032.2 1417 1335 62.29% 12.46% 25.26%+0.76 +59.5 46
2019-10-26 @ Riteriai L 0-432.2 1335 1417 25.26% 12.46% 62.29%-0.76 -59.5 31
2019-10-26 Stumbras W 3-023.3 1377 834 86.32% 11.35% 2.33%+3.22 +4.5 44
2019-10-26 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-323.3 834 1377 2.33% 11.35% 86.32%-3.22 -4.5 15
2019-10-26 Zalgiris W 1-053.4 1788 1661 66.96% 12.41% 20.63%+1.00 +13.8 75
2019-10-26 @ Suduva L 0-153.4 1661 1788 20.63% 12.41% 66.96%-1.00 -13.8 65

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-10-30 Atlantas W 9-133.8 1802 1196 87.24% 11.12% 1.65%+3.56 +6.5 3
2019-10-30 @ Suduva L 1-933.8 1196 1802 1.65% 11.12% 87.24%-3.56 -6.5 0
2019-10-30 Panevezys W 3-140.1 1647 1276 82.12% 11.91% 5.98%+2.30 +6.8 3
2019-10-30 @ Zalgiris L 1-340.1 1276 1647 5.98% 11.91% 82.12%-2.30 -6.8 0
2019-10-31 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-152.2 1477 1382 63.72% 12.44% 23.83%+0.83 -38.7 0
2019-10-31 @ Riteriai W 1-052.2 1382 1477 23.83% 12.44% 63.72%-0.83 +38.7 3
2019-11-03 Suduva L 1-540.4 1269 1809 4.65% 11.77% 83.58%-2.55 -9.7 0
2019-11-03 @ Panevezys W 5-140.4 1809 1269 83.58% 11.77% 4.65%+2.55 +9.7 6
2019-11-04 Atlantas W 5-236.0 1438 1189 76.39% 12.20% 11.40%+1.65 +15.7 3
2019-11-04 @ Riteriai L 2-536.0 1189 1438 11.40% 12.20% 76.39%-1.65 -15.7 0
2019-11-04 Zalgiris L 1-252.9 1420 1654 22.06% 12.42% 65.52%-0.92 -13.8 3
2019-11-04 @ Kauno Zalgiris W 2-152.9 1654 1420 65.52% 12.42% 22.06%+0.92 +13.8 6
2019-11-08 Panevezys L 1-440.9 1174 1259 40.20% 12.52% 47.28%-0.13 -58.4 0
2019-11-08 @ Atlantas W 4-140.9 1259 1174 47.28% 12.52% 40.20%+0.13 +58.4 3
2019-11-08 Riteriai L 1-367.7 1668 1454 74.17% 12.27% 13.56%+1.47 -73.8 6
2019-11-08 @ Zalgiris W 3-167.7 1454 1668 13.56% 12.27% 74.17%-1.47 +73.8 6
2019-11-09 Kauno Zalgiris W 4-146.7 1818 1406 83.40% 11.79% 4.81%+2.52 +7.8 9
2019-11-09 @ Suduva L 1-446.7 1406 1818 4.81% 11.79% 83.40%-2.52 -7.8 3
2019-11-22 Atlantas W 5-024.8 1594 1115 85.09% 11.58% 3.33%+2.88 +10.3 9
2019-11-22 @ Zalgiris L 0-524.8 1115 1594 3.33% 11.58% 85.09%-2.88 -10.3 0
2019-11-23 Panevezys W 1-037.7 1399 1318 62.18% 12.46% 25.37%+0.76 +16.7 6
2019-11-23 @ Kauno Zalgiris L 0-137.7 1318 1399 25.37% 12.46% 62.18%-0.76 -16.7 3
2019-11-23 Suduva W 5-166.4 1527 1826 16.30% 12.33% 71.37%-1.27 +129.3 9
2019-11-23 @ Riteriai L 1-566.4 1826 1527 71.37% 12.33% 16.30%+1.27 -129.4 9
2019-11-27 Kauno Zalgiris L 0-230.2 1105 1415 15.39% 12.31% 72.29%-1.33 -19.7 0
2019-11-27 @ Atlantas W 2-030.2 1415 1105 72.29% 12.31% 15.39%+1.33 +19.7 9
2019-11-27 Riteriai W 2-056.1 1301 1657 12.27% 12.23% 75.50%-1.57 +86.8 6
2019-11-27 @ Panevezys L 0-256.1 1657 1301 75.50% 12.23% 12.27%+1.57 -86.8 9
2019-11-27 Zalgiris W 2-158.9 1697 1605 63.39% 12.45% 24.16%+0.81 +15.1 12
2019-11-27 @ Suduva L 1-258.9 1605 1697 24.16% 12.45% 63.39%-0.81 -15.0 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-04-20 12.05% @ Palanga 1095 2 Stumbras 1454 1
2 2019-11-27 12.27% @ Panevezys 1301 2 Riteriai 1657 0
3 2019-06-15 12.79% Palanga 1044 3 @ Stumbras 1270 0
4 2019-11-08 13.56% Riteriai 1454 3 @ Zalgiris 1668 1
5 2019-11-23 16.30% @ Riteriai 1527 5 Suduva 1826 1
6 2019-10-05 17.72% @ Atlantas 1191 2 Riteriai 1473 1
7 2019-10-26 18.38% Palanga 1086 1 @ Atlantas 1238 0
8 2019-04-06 19.77% Kauno Zalgiris 1323 1 @ Stumbras 1459 0
9 2019-06-22 19.89% Riteriai 1511 2 @ Suduva 1646 1
10 2019-10-31 23.83% Kauno Zalgiris 1382 1 @ Riteriai 1477 0
11 2019-08-17 26.37% @ Kauno Zalgiris 1336 1 Riteriai 1530 0
12 2019-03-31 27.27% @ Stumbras 1390 2 Suduva 1576 0
13 2019-04-13 27.27% @ Stumbras 1418 1 Zalgiris 1603 0
14 2019-05-04 29.87% Riteriai 1362 3 @ Stumbras 1404 0
15 2019-03-02 31.81% @ Atlantas 1144 2 Kauno Zalgiris 1293 0
16 2019-05-11 32.37% @ Riteriai 1458 1 Zalgiris 1602 0
17 2019-08-23 34.67% @ Panevezys 1367 4 Riteriai 1493 2
18 2019-04-14 37.26% @ Atlantas 1104 2 Panevezys 1211 1
19 2019-08-25 37.54% Atlantas 1142 2 @ Palanga 1125 0
20 2019-07-06 38.39% Atlantas 1095 3 @ Stumbras 1072 0
21 2019-10-20 39.43% Suduva 1740 3 @ Zalgiris 1709 1
22 2019-04-13 41.43% @ Kauno Zalgiris 1364 3 Riteriai 1441 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-11-23 129.36 @ Riteriai 5 1527 16.30% Suduva 1 1826 71.37% 12.33%
2 2019-06-15 125.06 Palanga 3 1044 12.79% @ Stumbras 0 1270 74.96% 12.25%
3 2019-05-04 96.00 Riteriai 3 1362 29.87% @ Stumbras 0 1404 57.64% 12.49%
4 2019-11-27 86.76 @ Panevezys 2 1301 12.27% Riteriai 0 1657 75.50% 12.23%
5 2019-07-06 82.62 Atlantas 3 1095 38.39% @ Stumbras 0 1072 49.09% 12.52%
6 2019-11-08 73.75 Riteriai 3 1454 13.56% @ Zalgiris 1 1668 74.17% 12.27%
7 2019-03-31 69.01 @ Stumbras 2 1390 27.27% Suduva 0 1576 60.26% 12.47%
8 2019-06-22 66.35 Panevezys 3 1244 49.16% @ Stumbras 0 1145 38.32% 12.52%
9 2019-03-02 63.97 @ Atlantas 2 1144 31.81% Kauno Zalgiris 0 1293 55.70% 12.50%
10 2019-05-11 63.64 Suduva 3 1544 50.92% @ Kauno Zalgiris 0 1432 36.57% 12.52%
11 2019-03-09 60.22 @ Kauno Zalgiris 6 1229 62.51% Palanga 1 1145 25.04% 12.45%
12 2019-10-26 59.48 @ Riteriai 4 1417 62.29% Panevezys 0 1335 25.26% 12.46%
13 2019-11-08 58.36 Panevezys 4 1259 47.28% @ Atlantas 1 1174 40.20% 12.52%
14 2019-08-25 57.78 Atlantas 2 1142 37.54% @ Palanga 0 1125 49.94% 12.52%
15 2019-10-05 56.70 Palanga 3 1036 55.35% @ Stumbras 0 891 32.15% 12.50%
16 2019-10-20 48.31 Suduva 3 1740 39.43% @ Zalgiris 1 1709 48.05% 12.52%
17 2019-08-23 47.14 @ Panevezys 4 1367 34.67% Riteriai 2 1493 52.82% 12.51%
18 2019-04-13 46.50 @ Kauno Zalgiris 3 1364 41.43% Riteriai 1 1441 46.05% 12.52%
19 2019-03-10 45.03 Suduva 5 1524 72.68% @ Atlantas 0 1208 15.01% 12.31%
20 2019-04-20 43.51 @ Palanga 2 1095 12.05% Stumbras 1 1454 75.72% 12.22%
21 2019-03-09 42.39 Zalgiris 3 1536 64.19% @ Panevezys 0 1315 23.37% 12.44%
22 2019-10-26 42.06 Palanga 1 1086 18.38% @ Atlantas 0 1238 69.25% 12.37%
23 2019-04-06 41.19 Kauno Zalgiris 1 1323 19.77% @ Stumbras 0 1459 67.84% 12.39%
24 2019-06-02 40.50 @ Panevezys 4 1207 60.76% Atlantas 1 1139 26.77% 12.47%
25 2019-03-30 40.34 @ Kauno Zalgiris 2 1282 54.15% Panevezys 0 1268 33.34% 12.51%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-21 72.5 @ Riteriai 1 1455 21.19% Zalgiris 1 1698 66.40% 12.41%
2 2019-09-28 70.2 @ Panevezys 3 1349 47.88% Kauno Zalgiris 3 1381 39.59% 12.52%
3 2019-06-22 69.2 Riteriai 2 1511 19.89% @ Suduva 1 1646 67.72% 12.40%
4 2019-11-08 67.7 Riteriai 3 1454 13.56% @ Zalgiris 1 1668 74.17% 12.27%
5 2019-03-15 66.8 @ Zalgiris 1 1578 70.85% Riteriai 1 1408 16.81% 12.34%
6 2019-11-23 66.4 @ Riteriai 5 1527 16.30% Suduva 1 1826 71.37% 12.33%
7 2019-08-03 65.0 @ Kauno Zalgiris 2 1358 58.95% Panevezys 2 1306 28.57% 12.48%
8 2019-10-20 65.0 Suduva 3 1740 39.43% @ Zalgiris 1 1709 48.05% 12.52%
9 2019-08-10 59.5 @ Riteriai 1 1542 82.16% Atlantas 1 1169 5.94% 11.90%
10 2019-05-21 59.3 @ Riteriai 1 1502 79.43% Panevezys 1 1196 8.49% 12.08%
11 2019-11-27 58.9 @ Suduva 2 1697 63.39% Zalgiris 1 1605 24.16% 12.45%
12 2019-04-27 58.1 @ Panevezys 1 1173 21.65% Stumbras 1 1411 65.93% 12.42%
13 2019-05-18 58.0 @ Panevezys 1 1192 28.32% Kauno Zalgiris 1 1368 59.20% 12.48%
14 2019-10-19 58.0 @ Panevezys 1 1342 65.29% Atlantas 1 1231 22.28% 12.43%
15 2019-07-05 57.7 @ Zalgiris 2 1605 58.33% Riteriai 1 1557 29.18% 12.49%
16 2019-06-22 57.6 @ Atlantas 1 1093 19.85% Kauno Zalgiris 1 1350 67.75% 12.39%
17 2019-03-17 57.4 @ Palanga 1 1085 27.01% Panevezys 1 1273 60.52% 12.47%
18 2019-06-14 57.3 Zalgiris 4 1563 61.76% @ Kauno Zalgiris 3 1364 25.78% 12.46%
19 2019-04-20 56.9 @ Palanga 2 1095 12.05% Stumbras 1 1454 75.72% 12.22%
20 2019-04-13 56.8 @ Stumbras 1 1418 27.27% Zalgiris 0 1603 60.25% 12.47%
21 2019-05-11 56.7 @ Riteriai 1 1458 32.37% Zalgiris 0 1602 55.13% 12.50%
22 2019-08-23 56.7 @ Panevezys 4 1367 34.67% Riteriai 2 1493 52.82% 12.51%
23 2019-10-19 56.5 @ Riteriai 0 1422 58.57% Kauno Zalgiris 0 1372 28.95% 12.48%
24 2019-03-11 56.2 @ Riteriai 0 1412 58.01% Stumbras 0 1367 29.50% 12.49%
25 2019-11-27 56.1 @ Panevezys 2 1301 12.27% Riteriai 0 1657 75.50% 12.23%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-19 22.8 @ Zalgiris 3 1709 89.69% Stumbras 0 834 0.37% 9.95%
2 2019-10-26 23.3 @ Kauno Zalgiris 3 1377 86.32% Stumbras 0 834 2.33% 11.35%
3 2019-09-25 23.6 Suduva 3 1710 88.25% @ Stumbras 0 893 1.00% 10.75%
4 2019-09-01 23.7 @ Panevezys 3 1414 85.23% Stumbras 0 928 3.21% 11.55%
5 2019-08-03 23.9 @ Suduva 3 1636 87.73% Stumbras 0 990 1.32% 10.96%
6 2019-08-18 24.0 Zalgiris 3 1650 86.89% @ Stumbras 0 948 1.90% 11.21%
7 2019-09-14 24.3 Riteriai 3 1446 83.11% @ Stumbras 0 922 5.07% 11.82%
8 2019-10-02 24.6 @ Suduva 5 1712 88.01% Palanga 0 1040 1.14% 10.85%
9 2019-06-29 24.8 @ Riteriai 3 1550 84.92% Stumbras 0 1079 3.48% 11.60%
10 2019-11-22 24.8 @ Zalgiris 5 1594 85.09% Atlantas 0 1115 3.33% 11.58%
11 2019-05-05 24.9 @ Suduva 4 1531 82.84% Atlantas 0 1137 5.31% 11.84%
12 2019-08-31 25.0 Zalgiris 4 1654 84.77% @ Palanga 0 1067 3.61% 11.62%
13 2019-04-14 25.3 @ Suduva 3 1490 82.54% Palanga 0 1106 5.59% 11.87%
14 2019-08-24 25.4 Kauno Zalgiris 3 1374 79.53% @ Stumbras 0 944 8.39% 12.07%
15 2019-05-17 25.7 @ Zalgiris 3 1568 84.14% Atlantas 0 1129 4.15% 11.71%
16 2019-09-21 25.9 @ Atlantas 3 1180 77.47% Stumbras 0 912 10.37% 12.16%
17 2019-10-12 26.5 Suduva 4 1722 85.67% @ Palanga 0 1093 2.85% 11.48%
18 2019-09-13 27.2 @ Suduva 4 1638 84.39% Atlantas 0 1189 3.93% 11.68%
19 2019-06-29 27.3 @ Kauno Zalgiris 4 1342 71.30% Palanga 0 1166 16.36% 12.34%
20 2019-03-30 27.4 Zalgiris 3 1570 79.32% @ Atlantas 0 1145 8.60% 12.08%
21 2019-06-01 27.6 Suduva 2 1638 84.84% @ Palanga 0 1049 3.55% 11.61%
22 2019-09-25 28.7 @ Zalgiris 4 1692 85.37% Atlantas 0 1199 3.10% 11.53%
23 2019-03-10 28.9 Suduva 5 1524 72.68% @ Atlantas 0 1208 15.01% 12.31%
24 2019-05-05 28.9 Kauno Zalgiris 3 1398 69.10% @ Palanga 0 1126 18.52% 12.37%
25 2019-08-11 29.3 @ Palanga 3 1105 66.08% Stumbras 0 987 21.51% 12.42%