2025 A Lyga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Kauno Zalgiris

75 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Kauno Zalgiris

10.80 points above expected

75 points · 64.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

DFK Dainava

16.07 points below expected

18 points · 34.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Kauno Zalgiris	36	22	9	5	75	67	26	+41	64.20	+10.80
2	Hegelmann	36	21	4	11	67	56	43	+13	58.23	+8.77
3	Zalgiris	36	17	11	8	62	54	41	+13	60.77	+1.23
4	Suduva	36	15	14	7	59	48	36	+12	54.83	+4.17
5	FA Siauliai	36	14	10	12	52	59	53	+6	50.89	+1.11
6	Panevezys	36	14	7	15	49	56	49	+7	49.47	-0.47
7	Dziugas	36	13	7	16	46	37	45	-8	43.85	+2.15
8	Banga Gargzdai	36	11	9	16	42	38	36	+2	43.07	-1.07
9	Riteriai	36	6	8	22	26	37	74	-37	36.54	-10.54
10	DFK Dainava	36	3	9	24	18	27	76	-49	34.07	-16.07

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Kauno Zalgiris	75	64.20	+10.80
2	Hegelmann	67	58.23	+8.77
3	Suduva	59	54.83	+4.17
4	Dziugas	46	43.85	+2.15
5	Zalgiris	62	60.77	+1.23

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	DFK Dainava	18	34.07	-16.07
2	Riteriai	26	36.54	-10.54
3	Banga Gargzdai	42	43.07	-1.07
4	Panevezys	49	49.47	-0.47
5	FA Siauliai	52	50.89	+1.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kauno Zalgiris	7	Jun 19 – Aug 17	1 in 54
2	Banga Gargzdai	3	Apr 20 – May 3	1 in 42
3	Hegelmann	5	Mar 9 – Apr 12	1 in 39
4	Zalgiris	5	Aug 31 – Oct 5	1 in 35
5	Dziugas	3	Apr 12 – Apr 19	1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	DFK Dainava	6	Mar 14 – Apr 20	1 in 124
2	Riteriai	6	May 4 – Jun 14	1 in 77
3	Zalgiris	3	Apr 20 – May 3	1 in 53
4	Banga Gargzdai	3	Apr 5 – Apr 16	1 in 24
5	Kauno Zalgiris	2	Oct 22 – Oct 27	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Suduva	13	Apr 19 – Jul 20	1 in 188
2	Zalgiris	14	Aug 7 – Nov 2	1 in 93
3	Riteriai	4	Oct 4 – Oct 26	1 in 40
4	Kauno Zalgiris	14	May 4 – Aug 20	1 in 39
5	Banga Gargzdai	6	Oct 5 – Nov 8	1 in 36

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	DFK Dainava	16	Feb 28 – Jun 19	1 in 136
2	Zalgiris	6	May 17 – Jun 24	1 in 30
3	Suduva	4	Jul 20 – Aug 7	1 in 25
4	FA Siauliai	6	Oct 5 – Nov 8	1 in 15
5	Riteriai	10	Jun 25 – Aug 22	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Kauno Zalgiris	1369	75	-11	7	9.5	-2.5
Hegelmann	1270	67	-9	9	8.7	+0.3
Zalgiris	1320	62	+7	10	8.5	+1.5
Suduva	1256	59	+5	8	7.8	+0.2
FA Siauliai	1212	52	-32	2	6.3	-4.3
Panevezys	1247	49	+16	7	7.1	-0.1
Dziugas	1144	46	-13	5	5.9	-0.9
Banga Gargzdai	1196	42	+43	9	6.6	+2.4
Riteriai	1047	26	+24	8	4.9	+3.1
DFK Dainava	982	18	-29	2	3.6	-1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BG	DD	DZI	FS	HEG	KZ	PAN	RIT	SUD	ZAL
Banga Gargzdai	—	3-0-1 6.91	1-1-2 5.31	2-0-2 4.74	1-1-2 3.98	1-2-1 3.15	0-3-1 4.44	2-1-1 6.46	0-0-4 4.63	1-1-2 3.85
DFK Dainava	1-0-3 4.10	—	0-1-3 4.61	0-1-3 3.76	1-1-2 2.86	0-0-4 2.78	0-0-4 3.62	1-2-1 4.84	0-1-3 3.38	0-3-1 2.81
Dziugas	2-1-1 5.66	3-1-0 6.38	—	0-1-3 4.77	0-0-4 4.20	1-0-3 3.47	2-1-1 4.48	4-0-0 6.39	1-2-1 4.39	0-1-3 3.81
FA Siauliai	2-0-2 6.24	3-1-0 7.27	3-1-0 6.21	—	0-0-4 5.16	0-1-3 4.00	2-1-1 5.30	2-1-1 7.30	1-3-0 5.02	1-2-1 4.31
Hegelmann	2-1-1 7.02	2-1-1 8.24	4-0-0 6.79	4-0-0 5.80	—	0-1-3 4.64	3-0-1 6.15	3-0-1 7.72	1-0-3 5.92	2-1-1 5.14
Kauno Zalgiris	1-2-1 7.92	4-0-0 8.40	3-0-1 7.59	3-1-0 7.02	3-1-0 6.34	—	3-0-1 7.10	3-1-0 7.91	0-3-1 6.84	2-1-1 5.92
Panevezys	1-3-0 6.54	4-0-0 7.43	1-1-2 6.51	1-1-2 5.66	1-0-3 4.82	1-0-3 3.91	—	2-0-2 7.27	1-2-1 5.04	2-0-2 4.48
Riteriai	1-1-2 4.53	1-2-1 6.13	0-0-4 4.59	1-1-2 3.74	1-0-3 3.34	0-1-3 3.20	2-0-2 3.76	—	0-2-2 3.58	0-1-3 3.07
Suduva	4-0-0 6.35	3-1-0 7.68	1-2-1 6.60	0-3-1 5.95	3-0-1 5.04	1-3-0 4.15	1-2-1 5.93	2-2-0 7.48	—	0-1-3 5.09
Zalgiris	2-1-1 7.16	1-3-0 8.31	3-1-0 7.21	1-2-1 6.67	1-1-2 5.83	1-1-2 5.07	2-0-2 6.50	3-1-0 8.02	3-1-0 5.89	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.77	+12.3
Allowed	0.75	-9.5
Differential	0.93	+6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.22%	9.17%	6.67%	3.61%	0.56%	0.83%	28.06%
1	9.17%	8.89%	8.06%	4.72%	1.11%	0.56%	32.50%
2	6.67%	8.06%	7.22%	1.39%	0.56%	0.28%	24.17%
3	3.61%	4.72%	1.39%	1.11%	0.28%	—	11.11%
4	0.56%	1.11%	0.56%	0.28%	—	—	2.50%
5+	0.83%	0.56%	0.28%	—	—	—	1.67%
Total	28.06%	32.50%	24.17%	11.11%	2.50%	1.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.33	+0.00
SD	1.18	1.18	1.77
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	22.22%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	44.44%
1	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
2	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.00	+0.06
SD	1.39	0.89	1.84
CV	1.32	0.89	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	41.67%
1	2.78%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	27.78%	33.33%	25.00%	2.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	2.11	-1.36
SD	0.73	1.26	1.66
CV	0.98	0.60	—
Max	2	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	30.56%
1	13.89%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	36.11%	22.22%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	1.25	-0.22
SD	0.94	1.25	1.66
CV	0.92	1.00	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	25.00%
1	2.78%	2.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	13.89%	19.44%	2.78%	—	2.78%	44.44%
3	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	19.44%	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.47	+0.17
SD	1.20	1.16	1.80
CV	0.73	0.79	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	19.44%
1	19.44%	2.78%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	36.11%	22.22%	30.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.19	+0.36
SD	1.25	1.12	1.79
CV	0.81	0.93	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	41.67%	44.44%	13.89%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	0.72	+1.14
SD	1.51	0.70	1.55
CV	0.81	0.97	—
Max	6	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	8.33%	—	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	—	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	36.11%	19.44%	16.67%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.36	+0.19
SD	1.16	1.13	1.72
CV	0.74	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	2.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	41.67%
2	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
3	—	5.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	16.67%	36.11%	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	2.06	-1.03
SD	0.97	1.47	1.66
CV	0.94	0.72	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
3	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	27.78%	19.44%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.00	+0.33
SD	1.15	1.04	1.37
CV	0.86	1.04	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	36.11%
3	2.78%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	36.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.14	+0.36
SD	1.00	0.99	1.38
CV	0.67	0.87	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Kauno Zalgiris	1369	75	64.20	+10.80	91.0%	46	50	59	64	69	80	85
Zalgiris	1320	62	60.77	+1.23	58.0%	34	47	55	61	67	73	80
Hegelmann	1270	67	58.23	+8.77	92.0%	43	46	52	58	63	71	76
Suduva	1256	59	54.83	+4.17	70.0%	32	42	49	55	60	69	76
Panevezys	1247	49	49.47	-0.47	48.0%	30	37	44	50	55	61	73
FA Siauliai	1212	52	50.89	+1.11	58.0%	32	42	45	50	55	65	70
Banga Gargzdai	1196	42	43.07	-1.07	49.0%	26	31	38	43	49	56	61
Dziugas	1144	46	43.85	+2.15	62.0%	25	29	38	43	49	56	63
Riteriai	1047	26	36.54	-10.54	8.0%	24	25	31	36	42	48	58
DFK Dainava	982	18	34.07	-16.07	2.0%	16	21	28	34	40	47	52

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.56%

Slight Edge

40.56%24.44%35.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.

158 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

43%

Kauno Zalgiris, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.26 * Some Luck: 6.26 to 9.38 * Lucky: 9.38 to 12.51 * Wild Swing: 12.51 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.11 * Close: 1.11 to 1.66 * Off: 1.66 to 2.22 * Way Off: 2.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.67 points

Some Luck

07.8220

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.20

Pinpoint

01.393

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

92.00%

Hegelmann

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

2.00%

DFK Dainava

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Balanced

00.240.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 118.98

2.23

Coin-Flip Parity

12.52.853.5

Interquartile Edge

65%

Even

50%77.5%86.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Even

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

62%

Very Frequent

0%60%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Rare

0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.30

Very Even

00.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.66

Some Carryover

00.650.811

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Very Shaky

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.31

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.071

Well Within Noise

00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Kauno Zalgiris	43.00%	26.00%	14.00%	7.00%	4.00%	5.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Hegelmann	15.00%	20.00%	24.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	—
Zalgiris	28.00%	25.00%	12.00%	20.00%	6.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—	—	1.00%
Suduva	11.00%	12.00%	18.00%	16.00%	15.00%	14.00%	9.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—
FA Siauliai	1.00%	9.00%	12.00%	14.00%	20.00%	18.00%	12.00%	12.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Panevezys	1.00%	5.00%	11.00%	17.00%	18.00%	16.00%	15.00%	11.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Dziugas	—	1.00%	5.00%	6.00%	12.00%	12.00%	23.00%	17.00%	13.00%	11.00%
Banga Gargzdai	—	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	10.00%	13.00%	16.00%	22.00%	21.00%	8.00%
Riteriai	1.00%	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	12.00%	38.00%	29.00%
DFK Dainava	—	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	20.00%	20.00%	49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Hegelmann	100%	—	—
Kauno Zalgiris	100%	—	—
Suduva	98.00%	2.00%	—
FA Siauliai	98.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Panevezys	94.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Zalgiris	99.00%	—	1.00%
Banga Gargzdai	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%
Dziugas	76.00%	13.00%	11.00%
Riteriai	33.00%	38.00%	29.00%
DFK Dainava	31.00%	20.00%	49.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2025-02-28	Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-3	43.1	1185	1224	34.28%	25.88%	39.83%	-0.12	-13.1	0
2025-02-28	@ DFK Dainava	W 3-1	43.1	1224	1185	39.83%	25.88%	34.28%	+0.12	+13.1	3
2025-03-01	Hegelmann	W 2-0	40.4	1169	1253	28.50%	25.52%	45.98%	-0.41	+19.0	3
2025-03-01	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 0-2	40.4	1253	1169	45.98%	25.52%	28.50%	+0.41	-19.0	0
2025-03-01	Suduva	L 3-4	55.2	1167	1181	37.73%	25.92%	36.35%	+0.03	-7.5	0
2025-03-01	@ Riteriai	W 4-3	55.2	1181	1167	36.35%	25.92%	37.73%	-0.03	+7.5	3
2025-03-02	Dziugas	W 2-1	41.4	1297	1159	57.26%	23.66%	19.08%	+1.00	+4.6	3
2025-03-02	@ Zalgiris	L 1-2	41.4	1159	1297	19.08%	23.66%	57.26%	-1.00	-4.6	0
2025-03-02	FA Siauliai	L 1-3	46.2	1222	1184	45.02%	25.61%	29.38%	+0.36	-16.2	0
2025-03-02	@ Panevezys	W 3-1	46.2	1184	1222	29.38%	25.61%	45.02%	-0.36	+16.2	3
2025-03-07	Zalgiris	D 3-3	63.7	1159	1302	22.16%	24.50%	53.34%	-0.78	+0.9	1
2025-03-07	@ Riteriai	D 3-3	63.7	1302	1159	53.34%	24.50%	22.16%	+0.78	-0.9	4
2025-03-08	DFK Dainava	D 2-2	59.3	1200	1172	43.68%	25.71%	30.61%	+0.30	-0.5	4
2025-03-08	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.3	1172	1200	30.61%	25.71%	43.68%	-0.30	+0.4	1
2025-03-08	Dziugas	L 1-2	51.2	1237	1154	50.81%	24.93%	24.26%	+0.65	-10.3	3
2025-03-08	@ Kauno Zalgiris	W 2-1	51.2	1154	1237	24.26%	24.93%	50.81%	-0.65	+10.3	3
2025-03-09	Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	40.6	1189	1188	39.87%	25.88%	34.24%	+0.13	+8.0	6
2025-03-09	@ Suduva	L 0-1	40.6	1188	1189	34.24%	25.88%	39.87%	-0.13	-8.0	3
2025-03-09	Panevezys	W 2-1	45.4	1234	1206	43.74%	25.70%	30.56%	+0.30	+6.9	3
2025-03-09	@ Hegelmann	L 1-2	45.4	1206	1234	30.56%	25.70%	43.74%	-0.30	-6.9	0
2025-03-14	Dziugas	L 0-2	38.9	1173	1165	40.89%	25.85%	33.26%	+0.17	-17.3	1
2025-03-14	@ DFK Dainava	W 2-0	38.9	1165	1173	33.26%	25.85%	40.89%	-0.17	+17.3	6
2025-03-15	Banga Gargzdai	D 1-1	54.0	1301	1180	55.28%	24.11%	20.60%	+0.89	-1.7	5
2025-03-15	@ Zalgiris	D 1-1	54.0	1180	1301	20.60%	24.11%	55.28%	-0.89	+1.7	4
2025-03-15	FA Siauliai	W 1-0	39.0	1241	1200	45.48%	25.57%	28.95%	+0.39	+7.1	6
2025-03-15	@ Hegelmann	L 0-1	39.0	1200	1241	28.95%	25.57%	45.48%	-0.39	-7.0	4
2025-03-16	Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	48.5	1160	1227	30.61%	25.71%	43.68%	-0.30	+0.7	2
2025-03-16	@ Riteriai	D 0-0	48.5	1227	1160	43.68%	25.71%	30.61%	+0.30	-0.7	4
2025-03-16	Suduva	W 2-0	36.9	1199	1197	40.05%	25.88%	34.07%	+0.13	+15.1	3
2025-03-16	@ Panevezys	L 0-2	36.9	1197	1199	34.07%	25.88%	40.05%	-0.13	-15.1	6
2025-03-28	Dziugas	W 1-0	40.6	1182	1182	39.76%	25.89%	34.35%	+0.12	+8.0	9
2025-03-28	@ Suduva	L 0-1	40.6	1182	1182	34.35%	25.89%	39.76%	-0.12	-8.1	6
2025-03-29	Kauno Zalgiris	L 2-3	52.0	1193	1226	35.01%	25.90%	39.09%	-0.09	-7.3	4
2025-03-29	@ FA Siauliai	W 3-2	52.0	1226	1193	39.09%	25.90%	35.01%	+0.09	+7.3	7
2025-03-29	Riteriai	W 2-1	43.1	1248	1161	51.34%	24.85%	23.81%	+0.68	+5.6	9
2025-03-29	@ Hegelmann	L 1-2	43.1	1161	1248	23.81%	24.85%	51.34%	-0.68	-5.6	2
2025-03-30	Banga Gargzdai	D 1-1	53.3	1214	1182	44.20%	25.67%	30.13%	+0.32	-0.6	4
2025-03-30	@ Panevezys	D 1-1	53.3	1182	1214	30.13%	25.67%	44.20%	-0.32	+0.6	5
2025-03-30	Zalgiris	L 0-1	36.6	1155	1299	22.02%	24.47%	53.51%	-0.79	-5.6	1
2025-03-30	@ DFK Dainava	W 1-0	36.6	1299	1155	53.51%	24.47%	22.02%	+0.79	+5.6	8
2025-04-04	DFK Dainava	W 1-0	38.9	1190	1150	45.33%	25.58%	29.09%	+0.38	+7.1	12
2025-04-04	@ Suduva	L 0-1	38.9	1150	1190	29.09%	25.58%	45.33%	-0.38	-7.1	1
2025-04-05	FA Siauliai	L 1-2	48.0	1183	1185	39.41%	25.90%	34.69%	+0.11	-8.4	5
2025-04-05	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 2-1	48.0	1185	1183	34.69%	25.90%	39.41%	-0.11	+8.4	7
2025-04-05	Panevezys	W 3-1	45.5	1155	1213	31.74%	25.78%	42.48%	-0.24	+15.5	5
2025-04-05	@ Riteriai	L 1-3	45.5	1213	1155	42.48%	25.78%	31.74%	+0.24	-15.5	4
2025-04-06	Hegelmann	L 0-2	35.4	1174	1254	28.99%	25.57%	45.44%	-0.38	-13.3	6
2025-04-06	@ Dziugas	W 2-0	35.4	1254	1174	45.44%	25.57%	28.99%	+0.38	+13.3	12
2025-04-06	Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	49.0	1305	1234	49.34%	25.14%	25.51%	+0.57	-1.2	9
2025-04-06	@ Zalgiris	D 0-0	49.0	1234	1305	25.51%	25.14%	49.34%	-0.57	+1.2	8
2025-04-12	DFK Dainava	W 3-2	47.0	1267	1143	55.73%	24.01%	20.25%	+0.91	+4.6	15
2025-04-12	@ Hegelmann	L 2-3	47.0	1143	1267	20.25%	24.01%	55.73%	-0.91	-4.6	1
2025-04-12	Dziugas	L 0-1	43.7	1198	1161	44.90%	25.62%	29.49%	+0.36	-9.9	4
2025-04-12	@ Panevezys	W 1-0	43.7	1161	1198	29.49%	25.62%	44.90%	-0.36	+9.9	9
2025-04-12	Riteriai	L 1-3	44.8	1174	1171	40.29%	25.87%	33.84%	+0.14	-14.8	5
2025-04-12	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 3-1	44.8	1171	1174	33.84%	25.87%	40.29%	-0.14	+14.8	8
2025-04-12	Suduva	D 0-0	48.6	1235	1197	45.01%	25.61%	29.38%	+0.36	-0.8	9
2025-04-12	@ Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	48.6	1197	1235	29.38%	25.61%	45.01%	-0.36	+0.8	13
2025-04-12	Zalgiris	W 2-0	41.5	1194	1304	25.52%	25.14%	49.34%	-0.57	+20.1	10
2025-04-12	@ FA Siauliai	L 0-2	41.5	1304	1194	49.34%	25.14%	25.52%	+0.57	-20.2	9
2025-04-16	Dziugas	L 0-1	41.7	1159	1171	38.20%	25.92%	35.88%	+0.05	-8.7	5
2025-04-16	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	41.7	1171	1159	35.88%	25.92%	38.20%	-0.05	+8.7	12
2025-04-16	Hegelmann	W 3-1	45.0	1234	1272	34.46%	25.89%	39.65%	-0.12	+14.6	12
2025-04-16	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-3	45.0	1272	1234	39.65%	25.89%	34.46%	+0.12	-14.6	15
2025-04-16	Panevezys	L 1-3	42.5	1138	1188	32.79%	25.83%	41.37%	-0.19	-12.7	1
2025-04-16	@ DFK Dainava	W 3-1	42.5	1188	1138	41.37%	25.83%	32.79%	+0.19	+12.7	7
2025-04-16	Riteriai	D 2-2	59.4	1214	1186	43.73%	25.70%	30.57%	+0.30	-0.4	11
2025-04-16	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.4	1186	1214	30.57%	25.70%	43.73%	-0.30	+0.5	9
2025-04-16	Suduva	W 3-0	31.9	1283	1198	51.14%	24.88%	23.98%	+0.67	+16.5	12
2025-04-16	@ Zalgiris	L 0-3	31.9	1198	1283	23.98%	24.88%	51.14%	-0.67	-16.5	13
2025-04-19	Dziugas	L 0-1	42.5	1186	1179	40.73%	25.86%	33.41%	+0.17	-9.2	9
2025-04-19	@ Riteriai	W 1-0	42.5	1179	1186	33.41%	25.86%	40.73%	-0.17	+9.2	15
2025-04-19	FA Siauliai	D 1-1	53.2	1181	1214	35.22%	25.91%	38.88%	-0.08	+0.2	14
2025-04-19	@ Suduva	D 1-1	53.2	1214	1181	38.88%	25.91%	35.22%	+0.08	-0.2	12
2025-04-19	Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-2	36.7	1201	1249	33.03%	25.84%	41.13%	-0.18	-14.7	7
2025-04-19	@ Panevezys	W 2-0	36.7	1249	1201	41.13%	25.84%	33.03%	+0.18	+14.7	15
2025-04-20	DFK Dainava	W 2-1	45.4	1151	1125	43.33%	25.73%	30.94%	+0.28	+7.0	8
2025-04-20	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 1-2	45.4	1125	1151	30.94%	25.73%	43.33%	-0.28	-7.0	1
2025-04-20	Zalgiris	W 2-1	48.8	1257	1300	33.75%	25.87%	40.38%	-0.15	+8.6	18
2025-04-20	@ Hegelmann	L 1-2	48.8	1300	1257	40.38%	25.87%	33.75%	+0.15	-8.6	12
2025-04-25	Panevezys	L 2-3	57.3	1291	1186	53.54%	24.47%	22.00%	+0.79	-10.2	12
2025-04-25	@ Zalgiris	W 3-2	57.3	1186	1291	22.00%	24.47%	53.54%	-0.79	+10.2	10
2025-04-26	FA Siauliai	L 0-1	41.2	1189	1213	36.25%	25.92%	37.83%	-0.03	-8.4	15
2025-04-26	@ Dziugas	W 1-0	41.2	1213	1189	37.83%	25.92%	36.25%	+0.03	+8.4	15
2025-04-26	Riteriai	D 1-1	53.2	1118	1177	31.65%	25.77%	42.58%	-0.25	+0.5	2
2025-04-26	@ DFK Dainava	D 1-1	53.2	1177	1118	42.58%	25.77%	31.65%	+0.25	-0.5	10
2025-04-27	Banga Gargzdai	L 0-1	46.0	1263	1158	53.57%	24.46%	21.97%	+0.79	-11.5	15
2025-04-27	@ Kauno Zalgiris	W 1-0	46.0	1158	1263	21.97%	24.46%	53.57%	-0.79	+11.5	11
2025-04-27	Hegelmann	W 4-0	38.5	1182	1266	28.45%	25.52%	46.03%	-0.41	+36.1	17
2025-04-27	@ Suduva	L 0-4	38.5	1266	1182	46.03%	25.52%	28.45%	+0.41	-36.1	18
2025-05-02	Hegelmann	L 0-3	36.5	1222	1230	38.69%	25.91%	35.40%	+0.07	-24.1	15
2025-05-02	@ FA Siauliai	W 3-0	36.5	1230	1222	35.40%	25.91%	38.69%	-0.07	+24.1	21
2025-05-03	DFK Dainava	W 2-0	34.4	1180	1119	48.10%	25.30%	26.60%	+0.51	+12.4	18
2025-05-03	@ Dziugas	L 0-2	34.4	1119	1180	26.60%	25.30%	48.10%	-0.51	-12.4	2
2025-05-03	Zalgiris	W 2-0	41.5	1169	1281	25.29%	25.11%	49.61%	-0.59	+20.2	14
2025-05-03	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 0-2	41.5	1281	1169	49.61%	25.11%	25.29%	+0.59	-20.2	12
2025-05-04	Panevezys	D 0-0	48.5	1218	1196	42.79%	25.76%	31.45%	+0.26	-0.6	18
2025-05-04	@ Suduva	D 0-0	48.5	1196	1218	31.45%	25.76%	42.79%	-0.26	+0.6	11
2025-05-04	Riteriai	W 3-1	40.1	1252	1176	49.90%	25.07%	25.03%	+0.60	+10.2	18
2025-05-04	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-3	40.1	1176	1252	25.03%	25.07%	49.90%	-0.60	-10.2	10
2025-05-09	Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-1	39.5	1193	1262	30.23%	25.68%	44.09%	-0.32	-7.3	18
2025-05-09	@ Dziugas	W 1-0	39.5	1262	1193	44.09%	25.68%	30.23%	+0.32	+7.3	21
2025-05-09	Riteriai	W 2-0	33.3	1261	1166	52.24%	24.70%	23.06%	+0.72	+11.0	15
2025-05-09	@ Zalgiris	L 0-2	33.3	1166	1261	23.06%	24.70%	52.24%	-0.72	-11.0	10
2025-05-10	Hegelmann	W 3-0	37.6	1197	1254	31.86%	25.78%	42.36%	-0.24	+25.8	14
2025-05-10	@ Panevezys	L 0-3	37.6	1254	1197	42.36%	25.78%	31.86%	+0.24	-25.9	21
2025-05-11	FA Siauliai	L 1-2	44.3	1106	1198	27.61%	25.43%	46.96%	-0.46	-6.4	2
2025-05-11	@ DFK Dainava	W 2-1	44.3	1198	1106	46.96%	25.43%	27.61%	+0.46	+6.4	18
2025-05-11	Suduva	L 0-1	41.1	1189	1217	35.86%	25.92%	38.22%	-0.05	-8.3	14
2025-05-11	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	41.1	1217	1189	38.22%	25.92%	35.86%	+0.05	+8.3	21
2025-05-16	Suduva	L 0-3	31.5	1100	1225	23.86%	24.86%	51.28%	-0.67	-16.4	2
2025-05-16	@ DFK Dainava	W 3-0	31.5	1225	1100	51.28%	24.86%	23.86%	+0.67	+16.4	24
2025-05-17	Dziugas	W 1-0	38.9	1228	1185	45.64%	25.55%	28.81%	+0.39	+7.0	24
2025-05-17	@ Hegelmann	L 0-1	38.9	1185	1228	28.81%	25.55%	45.64%	-0.39	-7.0	18
2025-05-17	Riteriai	W 3-0	32.3	1223	1155	48.86%	25.21%	25.94%	+0.55	+17.6	17
2025-05-17	@ Panevezys	L 0-3	32.3	1155	1223	25.94%	25.21%	48.86%	-0.55	-17.6	10
2025-05-17	Zalgiris	W 3-0	35.6	1270	1272	39.47%	25.89%	34.63%	+0.11	+22.2	24
2025-05-17	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-3	35.6	1272	1270	34.63%	25.89%	39.47%	-0.11	-22.2	15
2025-05-18	Banga Gargzdai	W 3-0	34.1	1204	1181	42.98%	25.75%	31.27%	+0.27	+20.5	21
2025-05-18	@ FA Siauliai	L 0-3	34.1	1181	1204	31.27%	25.75%	42.98%	-0.27	-20.5	14
2025-05-23	FA Siauliai	W 3-0	32.7	1292	1225	48.84%	25.21%	25.95%	+0.55	+17.6	27
2025-05-23	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-3	32.7	1225	1292	25.95%	25.21%	48.84%	-0.55	-17.6	21
2025-05-23	Panevezys	D 1-1	53.3	1161	1240	29.01%	25.57%	45.42%	-0.38	+0.8	15
2025-05-23	@ Banga Gargzdai	D 1-1	53.3	1240	1161	45.42%	25.57%	29.01%	+0.38	-0.8	18
2025-05-24	Hegelmann	L 2-4	44.5	1138	1235	26.92%	25.34%	47.74%	-0.49	-9.7	10
2025-05-24	@ Riteriai	W 4-2	44.5	1235	1138	47.74%	25.34%	26.92%	+0.49	+9.7	27
2025-05-25	DFK Dainava	D 1-1	54.1	1250	1084	60.25%	22.85%	16.90%	+1.18	-2.1	16
2025-05-25	@ Zalgiris	D 1-1	54.1	1084	1250	16.90%	22.85%	60.25%	-1.18	+2.2	3
2025-05-25	Suduva	D 1-1	53.3	1178	1242	31.01%	25.73%	43.25%	-0.28	+0.6	19
2025-05-25	@ Dziugas	D 1-1	53.3	1242	1178	43.25%	25.73%	31.01%	+0.28	-0.6	25
2025-05-30	DFK Dainava	W 4-0	27.2	1309	1086	65.90%	20.94%	13.16%	+1.54	+12.1	30
2025-05-30	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-4	27.2	1086	1309	13.16%	20.94%	65.90%	-1.54	-12.1	3
2025-05-31	Banga Gargzdai	W 2-0	33.7	1245	1161	50.84%	24.93%	24.23%	+0.65	+11.5	30
2025-05-31	@ Hegelmann	L 0-2	33.7	1161	1245	24.23%	24.93%	50.84%	-0.65	-11.5	15
2025-05-31	Zalgiris	D 1-1	53.4	1179	1247	30.36%	25.69%	43.95%	-0.31	+0.6	20
2025-05-31	@ Dziugas	D 1-1	53.4	1247	1179	43.95%	25.69%	30.36%	+0.31	-0.6	17
2025-06-01	Panevezys	W 2-1	48.0	1207	1239	35.17%	25.91%	38.93%	-0.08	+8.3	24
2025-06-01	@ FA Siauliai	L 1-2	48.0	1239	1207	38.93%	25.91%	35.17%	+0.08	-8.3	18
2025-06-01	Riteriai	W 4-1	35.9	1241	1128	54.45%	24.29%	21.26%	+0.84	+12.5	28
2025-06-01	@ Suduva	L 1-4	35.9	1128	1241	21.26%	24.29%	54.45%	-0.84	-12.5	10
2025-06-13	FA Siauliai	D 0-0	48.6	1247	1215	44.17%	25.67%	30.16%	+0.32	-0.7	18
2025-06-13	@ Zalgiris	D 0-0	48.6	1215	1247	30.16%	25.67%	44.17%	-0.32	+0.7	25
2025-06-13	Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	49.1	1254	1321	30.48%	25.70%	43.82%	-0.31	+0.7	29
2025-06-13	@ Suduva	D 0-0	49.1	1321	1254	43.82%	25.70%	30.48%	+0.31	-0.7	31
2025-06-13	Panevezys	D 1-1	53.3	1179	1231	32.56%	25.82%	41.62%	-0.21	+0.4	21
2025-06-13	@ Dziugas	D 1-1	53.3	1231	1179	41.62%	25.82%	32.56%	+0.21	-0.4	19
2025-06-14	Banga Gargzdai	L 1-2	46.6	1115	1150	34.89%	25.90%	39.21%	-0.10	-7.7	10
2025-06-14	@ Riteriai	W 2-1	46.6	1150	1115	39.21%	25.90%	34.89%	+0.10	+7.7	18
2025-06-14	Hegelmann	D 2-2	60.0	1074	1256	18.62%	23.50%	57.87%	-1.03	+1.4	4
2025-06-14	@ DFK Dainava	D 2-2	60.0	1256	1074	57.87%	23.50%	18.62%	+1.03	-1.4	31
2025-06-19	Banga Gargzdai	L 0-1	43.1	1180	1158	42.89%	25.76%	31.35%	+0.26	-9.5	21
2025-06-19	@ Dziugas	W 1-0	43.1	1158	1180	31.35%	25.76%	42.89%	-0.26	+9.5	21
2025-06-19	DFK Dainava	W 2-0	31.1	1231	1075	59.15%	23.16%	17.68%	+1.11	+8.6	22
2025-06-19	@ Panevezys	L 0-2	31.1	1075	1231	17.68%	23.16%	59.15%	-1.11	-8.6	4
2025-06-19	FA Siauliai	W 1-0	44.8	1108	1216	25.68%	25.17%	49.15%	-0.56	+10.6	13
2025-06-19	@ Riteriai	L 0-1	44.8	1216	1108	49.15%	25.17%	25.68%	+0.56	-10.7	25
2025-06-19	Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-2	46.0	1255	1321	30.67%	25.71%	43.62%	-0.30	-7.0	31
2025-06-19	@ Hegelmann	W 2-1	46.0	1321	1255	43.62%	25.71%	30.67%	+0.30	+7.0	34
2025-06-19	Zalgiris	D 2-2	59.6	1254	1246	40.96%	25.85%	33.19%	+0.18	-0.3	30
2025-06-19	@ Suduva	D 2-2	59.6	1246	1254	33.19%	25.85%	40.96%	-0.18	+0.3	19
2025-06-24	Banga Gargzdai	W 2-1	50.4	1066	1167	26.53%	25.29%	48.18%	-0.52	+9.9	7
2025-06-24	@ DFK Dainava	L 1-2	50.4	1167	1066	48.18%	25.29%	26.53%	+0.52	-9.9	21
2025-06-24	Hegelmann	L 0-1	42.5	1246	1248	39.62%	25.89%	34.49%	+0.11	-9.0	19
2025-06-24	@ Zalgiris	W 1-0	42.5	1248	1246	34.49%	25.89%	39.62%	-0.11	+9.0	34
2025-06-24	Panevezys	W 3-0	32.1	1328	1239	51.49%	24.83%	23.68%	+0.68	+16.3	37
2025-06-24	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-3	32.1	1239	1328	23.68%	24.83%	51.49%	-0.68	-16.3	22
2025-06-25	Riteriai	W 2-1	44.3	1170	1118	46.87%	25.44%	27.69%	+0.45	+6.4	24
2025-06-25	@ Dziugas	L 1-2	44.3	1118	1170	27.69%	25.44%	46.87%	-0.45	-6.4	13
2025-06-25	Suduva	D 2-2	59.5	1205	1254	32.94%	25.84%	41.23%	-0.19	+0.3	26
2025-06-25	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.5	1254	1205	41.23%	25.84%	32.94%	+0.19	-0.3	31
2025-06-29	DFK Dainava	L 0-2	39.9	1112	1076	44.71%	25.63%	29.66%	+0.35	-18.6	13
2025-06-29	@ Riteriai	W 2-0	39.9	1076	1112	29.66%	25.63%	44.71%	-0.35	+18.6	10
2025-06-29	Dziugas	W 5-0	34.6	1206	1177	43.80%	25.70%	30.50%	+0.31	+32.4	29
2025-06-29	@ FA Siauliai	L 0-5	34.6	1177	1206	30.50%	25.70%	43.80%	-0.31	-32.4	24
2025-06-29	Zalgiris	L 2-4	48.1	1223	1237	37.73%	25.92%	36.35%	+0.03	-12.6	22
2025-06-29	@ Panevezys	W 4-2	48.1	1237	1223	36.35%	25.92%	37.73%	-0.03	+12.6	22
2025-06-30	Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-2	31.7	1157	1344	18.27%	23.38%	58.35%	-1.06	-8.9	21
2025-06-30	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 2-0	31.7	1344	1157	58.35%	23.38%	18.27%	+1.06	+8.9	40
2025-06-30	Suduva	L 0-2	39.0	1257	1254	40.17%	25.88%	33.95%	+0.14	-17.1	34
2025-06-30	@ Hegelmann	W 2-0	39.0	1254	1257	33.95%	25.88%	40.17%	-0.14	+17.1	34
2025-07-04	Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	36.6	1250	1148	53.09%	24.55%	22.36%	+0.77	+5.7	25
2025-07-04	@ Zalgiris	L 0-1	36.6	1148	1250	22.36%	24.55%	53.09%	-0.77	-5.7	21
2025-07-05	FA Siauliai	W 5-2	42.9	1239	1238	40.01%	25.88%	34.11%	+0.13	+16.0	37
2025-07-05	@ Hegelmann	L 2-5	42.9	1238	1239	34.11%	25.88%	40.01%	-0.13	-16.0	29
2025-07-05	Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-5	31.2	1093	1353	13.31%	21.04%	65.65%	-1.52	-10.2	13
2025-07-05	@ Riteriai	W 5-1	31.2	1353	1093	65.65%	21.04%	13.31%	+1.52	+10.2	43
2025-07-06	Dziugas	L 0-2	36.4	1095	1144	32.87%	25.83%	41.30%	-0.19	-14.7	10
2025-07-06	@ DFK Dainava	W 2-0	36.4	1144	1095	41.30%	25.83%	32.87%	+0.19	+14.7	27
2025-07-07	Suduva	L 1-2	45.8	1210	1271	31.39%	25.76%	42.86%	-0.26	-7.1	22
2025-07-07	@ Panevezys	W 2-1	45.8	1271	1210	42.86%	25.76%	31.39%	+0.26	+7.1	37
2025-07-11	FA Siauliai	L 0-2	33.0	1083	1222	22.51%	24.58%	52.90%	-0.76	-10.8	13
2025-07-11	@ Riteriai	W 2-0	33.0	1222	1083	52.90%	24.58%	22.51%	+0.76	+10.8	32
2025-07-13	Banga Gargzdai	D 0-0	48.3	1159	1143	42.07%	25.80%	32.13%	+0.23	-0.5	28
2025-07-13	@ Dziugas	D 0-0	48.3	1143	1159	32.13%	25.80%	42.07%	-0.23	+0.5	22
2025-07-14	Panevezys	L 0-3	31.6	1080	1203	24.11%	24.91%	50.99%	-0.66	-16.6	10
2025-07-14	@ DFK Dainava	W 3-0	31.6	1203	1080	50.99%	24.91%	24.11%	+0.66	+16.6	25
2025-07-19	Dziugas	W 2-0	33.2	1256	1158	52.56%	24.65%	22.80%	+0.74	+10.9	28
2025-07-19	@ Zalgiris	L 0-2	33.2	1158	1256	22.80%	24.65%	52.56%	-0.74	-10.9	28
2025-07-20	FA Siauliai	W 2-0	37.7	1220	1233	37.96%	25.92%	36.12%	+0.04	+15.8	28
2025-07-20	@ Panevezys	L 0-2	37.7	1233	1220	36.12%	25.92%	37.96%	-0.04	-15.8	32
2025-07-20	Riteriai	D 0-0	49.7	1278	1072	64.20%	21.57%	14.23%	+1.43	-2.8	38
2025-07-20	@ Suduva	D 0-0	49.7	1072	1278	14.23%	21.57%	64.20%	-1.43	+2.8	14
2025-07-21	DFK Dainava	W 3-0	25.3	1363	1064	72.42%	18.11%	9.47%	+2.02	+6.4	46
2025-07-21	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-3	25.3	1064	1363	9.47%	18.11%	72.42%	-2.02	-6.4	10
2025-07-27	Dziugas	L 2-3	57.8	1275	1148	56.09%	23.93%	19.98%	+0.93	-10.7	38
2025-07-27	@ Suduva	W 3-2	57.8	1148	1275	19.98%	23.93%	56.09%	-0.93	+10.7	31
2025-07-28	DFK Dainava	W 3-1	37.0	1217	1057	59.58%	23.04%	17.37%	+1.14	+7.3	35
2025-07-28	@ FA Siauliai	L 1-3	37.0	1057	1217	17.37%	23.04%	59.58%	-1.14	-7.3	10
2025-07-28	Riteriai	W 3-0	28.4	1255	1075	61.71%	22.41%	15.88%	+1.27	+11.2	40
2025-07-28	@ Hegelmann	L 0-3	28.4	1075	1255	15.88%	22.41%	61.71%	-1.27	-11.2	14
2025-08-01	Panevezys	L 1-3	37.9	1064	1236	19.52%	23.80%	56.69%	-0.97	-8.2	14
2025-08-01	@ Riteriai	W 3-1	37.9	1236	1064	56.69%	23.80%	19.52%	+0.97	+8.2	31
2025-08-03	Suduva	D 2-2	60.2	1050	1265	16.18%	22.54%	61.27%	-1.24	+1.7	11
2025-08-03	@ DFK Dainava	D 2-2	60.2	1265	1050	61.27%	22.54%	16.18%	+1.24	-1.7	39
2025-08-04	FA Siauliai	W 1-0	43.9	1143	1224	28.83%	25.56%	45.61%	-0.39	+10.0	25
2025-08-04	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 0-1	43.9	1224	1143	45.61%	25.56%	28.83%	+0.39	-10.0	35
2025-08-04	Hegelmann	L 0-1	37.9	1158	1267	25.66%	25.17%	49.17%	-0.57	-6.4	31
2025-08-04	@ Dziugas	W 1-0	37.9	1267	1158	49.17%	25.17%	25.66%	+0.57	+6.4	43
2025-08-04	Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-2	44.9	1267	1369	26.27%	25.26%	48.47%	-0.53	-6.1	28
2025-08-04	@ Zalgiris	W 2-1	44.9	1369	1267	48.47%	25.26%	26.27%	+0.53	+6.1	49
2025-08-07	Suduva	W 1-0	41.1	1260	1263	39.45%	25.89%	34.66%	+0.11	+8.1	31
2025-08-07	@ Zalgiris	L 0-1	41.1	1263	1260	34.66%	25.89%	39.45%	-0.11	-8.1	39
2025-08-08	Dziugas	L 0-1	45.6	1244	1152	51.91%	24.76%	23.33%	+0.71	-11.2	31
2025-08-08	@ Panevezys	W 1-0	45.6	1152	1244	23.33%	24.76%	51.91%	-0.71	+11.2	34
2025-08-10	DFK Dainava	L 0-1	48.5	1273	1052	65.71%	21.02%	13.28%	+1.53	-13.6	43
2025-08-10	@ Hegelmann	W 1-0	48.5	1052	1273	13.28%	21.02%	65.71%	-1.53	+13.6	14
2025-08-10	Riteriai	W 2-0	33.0	1153	1056	52.58%	24.64%	22.78%	+0.74	+10.9	28
2025-08-10	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 0-2	33.0	1056	1153	22.78%	24.64%	52.58%	-0.74	-10.9	14
2025-08-11	Zalgiris	D 2-2	59.5	1214	1269	32.21%	25.80%	41.99%	-0.22	+0.3	36
2025-08-11	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.5	1269	1214	41.99%	25.80%	32.21%	+0.22	-0.3	32
2025-08-13	Hegelmann	L 0-1	38.4	1164	1259	27.13%	25.37%	47.50%	-0.48	-6.7	28
2025-08-13	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	38.4	1259	1164	47.50%	25.37%	27.13%	+0.48	+6.7	46
2025-08-17	Banga Gargzdai	W 2-1	42.7	1255	1157	52.57%	24.64%	22.78%	+0.74	+5.4	42
2025-08-17	@ Suduva	L 1-2	42.7	1157	1255	22.78%	24.64%	52.57%	-0.74	-5.4	28
2025-08-17	Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-2	40.6	1163	1376	16.32%	22.61%	61.07%	-1.23	-4.0	34
2025-08-17	@ Dziugas	W 2-1	40.6	1376	1163	61.07%	22.61%	16.32%	+1.23	+4.0	52
2025-08-17	Panevezys	W 3-1	41.9	1266	1233	44.43%	25.65%	29.91%	+0.34	+11.8	49
2025-08-17	@ Hegelmann	L 1-3	41.9	1233	1266	29.91%	25.65%	44.43%	-0.34	-11.8	31
2025-08-17	Riteriai	W 2-1	38.6	1268	1045	65.87%	20.95%	13.18%	+1.54	+3.2	35
2025-08-17	@ Zalgiris	L 1-2	38.6	1045	1268	13.18%	20.95%	65.87%	-1.54	-3.2	14
2025-08-20	Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	37.8	1221	1152	49.05%	25.18%	25.77%	+0.56	+6.4	34
2025-08-20	@ Panevezys	L 0-1	37.8	1152	1221	25.77%	25.18%	49.05%	-0.56	-6.4	28
2025-08-20	DFK Dainava	D 1-1	54.5	1271	1065	64.26%	21.55%	14.19%	+1.43	-2.5	36
2025-08-20	@ Zalgiris	D 1-1	54.5	1065	1271	14.19%	21.55%	64.26%	-1.43	+2.5	15
2025-08-20	Kauno Zalgiris	D 2-2	60.6	1215	1380	20.08%	23.96%	55.96%	-0.92	+1.3	37
2025-08-20	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	60.6	1380	1215	55.96%	23.96%	20.08%	+0.92	-1.3	53
2025-08-22	Dziugas	L 0-2	33.7	1042	1159	24.70%	25.01%	50.29%	-0.62	-11.6	14
2025-08-22	@ Riteriai	W 2-0	33.7	1159	1042	50.29%	25.01%	24.70%	+0.62	+11.7	37
2025-08-24	Banga Gargzdai	L 0-5	34.0	1068	1146	29.22%	25.59%	45.19%	-0.37	-31.3	15
2025-08-24	@ DFK Dainava	W 5-0	34.0	1146	1068	45.19%	25.59%	29.22%	+0.37	+31.3	31
2025-08-24	Kauno Zalgiris	W 1-0	46.9	1227	1378	21.34%	24.31%	54.36%	-0.84	+11.6	37
2025-08-24	@ Panevezys	L 0-1	46.9	1378	1227	54.36%	24.31%	21.34%	+0.84	-11.6	53
2025-08-24	Zalgiris	D 2-2	59.8	1278	1269	41.07%	25.84%	33.09%	+0.18	-0.3	50
2025-08-24	@ Hegelmann	D 2-2	59.8	1269	1278	33.09%	25.84%	41.07%	-0.18	+0.3	37
2025-08-25	Suduva	W 2-1	48.6	1216	1260	33.54%	25.86%	40.60%	-0.16	+8.6	40
2025-08-25	@ FA Siauliai	L 1-2	48.6	1260	1216	40.60%	25.86%	33.54%	+0.16	-8.6	42
2025-08-27	Hegelmann	W 2-1	44.1	1367	1278	51.56%	24.82%	23.62%	+0.69	+5.6	56
2025-08-27	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-2	44.1	1278	1367	23.62%	24.82%	51.56%	-0.69	-5.6	50
2025-08-30	DFK Dainava	W 2-1	46.6	1030	1036	38.90%	25.91%	35.20%	+0.08	+7.7	17
2025-08-30	@ Riteriai	L 1-2	46.6	1036	1030	35.20%	25.91%	38.90%	-0.08	-7.7	15
2025-08-30	Hegelmann	W 2-1	47.8	1252	1272	36.87%	25.92%	37.21%	-0.01	+8.1	45
2025-08-30	@ Suduva	L 1-2	47.8	1272	1252	37.21%	25.92%	36.87%	+0.01	-8.1	50
2025-08-30	Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	49.7	1177	1372	17.59%	23.13%	59.28%	-1.12	+2.3	32
2025-08-30	@ Banga Gargzdai	D 0-0	49.7	1372	1177	59.28%	23.13%	17.59%	+1.12	-2.3	57
2025-08-31	FA Siauliai	L 1-3	42.5	1171	1224	32.29%	25.81%	41.91%	-0.22	-12.5	37
2025-08-31	@ Dziugas	W 3-1	42.5	1224	1171	41.91%	25.81%	32.29%	+0.22	+12.5	43
2025-08-31	Panevezys	W 2-1	45.6	1269	1239	44.00%	25.68%	30.32%	+0.32	+6.9	40
2025-08-31	@ Zalgiris	L 1-2	45.6	1239	1269	30.32%	25.68%	44.00%	-0.32	-6.9	37
2025-09-12	DFK Dainava	D 1-1	53.7	1158	1029	56.30%	23.89%	19.81%	+0.94	-1.8	38
2025-09-12	@ Dziugas	D 1-1	53.7	1029	1158	19.81%	23.89%	56.30%	-0.94	+1.8	16
2025-09-12	Panevezys	D 1-1	53.5	1260	1232	43.65%	25.71%	30.65%	+0.30	-0.6	46
2025-09-12	@ Suduva	D 1-1	53.5	1232	1260	30.65%	25.71%	43.65%	-0.30	+0.6	38
2025-09-13	Zalgiris	L 0-2	34.8	1179	1276	26.96%	25.35%	47.69%	-0.49	-12.5	32
2025-09-13	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 2-0	34.8	1276	1179	47.69%	25.35%	26.96%	+0.49	+12.5	43
2025-09-14	Hegelmann	L 0-1	41.4	1237	1264	35.94%	25.92%	38.14%	-0.05	-8.3	43
2025-09-14	@ FA Siauliai	W 1-0	41.4	1264	1237	38.14%	25.92%	35.94%	+0.05	+8.3	53
2025-09-14	Riteriai	W 6-1	27.7	1370	1038	74.95%	16.85%	8.21%	+2.23	+7.3	60
2025-09-14	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-6	27.7	1038	1370	8.21%	16.85%	74.95%	-2.23	-7.3	17
2025-09-19	FA Siauliai	L 0-3	29.0	1031	1229	17.38%	23.05%	59.57%	-1.13	-12.3	16
2025-09-19	@ DFK Dainava	W 3-0	29.0	1229	1031	59.57%	23.05%	17.38%	+1.13	+12.3	46
2025-09-19	Zalgiris	L 0-2	29.2	1031	1289	13.40%	21.09%	65.51%	-1.51	-6.5	17
2025-09-19	@ Riteriai	W 2-0	29.2	1289	1031	65.51%	21.09%	13.40%	+1.51	+6.5	46
2025-09-21	Dziugas	W 2-1	39.2	1377	1156	65.65%	21.04%	13.31%	+1.52	+3.2	63
2025-09-21	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-2	39.2	1156	1377	13.31%	21.04%	65.65%	-1.52	-3.2	38
2025-09-21	Hegelmann	L 0-1	40.8	1232	1272	34.15%	25.88%	39.97%	-0.13	-8.0	38
2025-09-21	@ Panevezys	W 1-0	40.8	1272	1232	39.97%	25.88%	34.15%	+0.13	+8.0	56
2025-09-21	Suduva	L 0-1	38.5	1167	1259	27.47%	25.41%	47.12%	-0.46	-6.8	32
2025-09-21	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	38.5	1259	1167	47.12%	25.41%	27.47%	+0.46	+6.8	49
2025-09-24	Suduva	D 1-1	54.8	1380	1266	54.61%	24.25%	21.13%	+0.85	-1.6	64
2025-09-24	@ Kauno Zalgiris	D 1-1	54.8	1266	1380	21.13%	24.25%	54.61%	-0.85	+1.6	50
2025-09-26	Dziugas	L 0-1	42.5	1160	1153	40.74%	25.86%	33.41%	+0.17	-9.2	32
2025-09-26	@ Banga Gargzdai	W 1-0	42.5	1153	1160	33.41%	25.86%	40.74%	-0.17	+9.1	41
2025-09-27	Riteriai	W 2-1	38.8	1241	1024	65.27%	21.18%	13.55%	+1.50	+3.3	49
2025-09-27	@ FA Siauliai	L 1-2	38.8	1024	1241	13.55%	21.18%	65.27%	-1.50	-3.3	17
2025-09-29	Zalgiris	L 1-3	44.1	1267	1295	35.85%	25.92%	38.23%	-0.05	-13.6	50
2025-09-29	@ Suduva	W 3-1	44.1	1295	1267	38.23%	25.92%	35.85%	+0.05	+13.6	49
2025-10-01	DFK Dainava	W 3-1	35.6	1224	1018	64.27%	21.55%	14.18%	+1.43	+6.0	41
2025-10-01	@ Panevezys	L 1-3	35.6	1018	1224	14.18%	21.55%	64.27%	-1.43	-6.0	16
2025-10-01	Kauno Zalgiris	D 1-1	54.6	1280	1379	26.77%	25.32%	47.90%	-0.50	+1.0	57
2025-10-01	@ Hegelmann	D 1-1	54.6	1379	1280	47.90%	25.32%	26.77%	+0.50	-1.0	65
2025-10-04	Kauno Zalgiris	L 0-1	30.2	1012	1378	8.39%	17.05%	74.56%	-2.20	-2.0	16
2025-10-04	@ DFK Dainava	W 1-0	30.2	1378	1012	74.56%	17.05%	8.39%	+2.20	+2.1	68
2025-10-04	Suduva	D 0-0	49.5	1021	1254	14.93%	21.95%	63.12%	-1.36	+2.7	18
2025-10-04	@ Riteriai	D 0-0	49.5	1254	1021	63.12%	21.95%	14.93%	+1.36	-2.7	51
2025-10-05	Banga Gargzdai	D 0-0	49.1	1281	1151	56.43%	23.86%	19.71%	+0.95	-2.0	58
2025-10-05	@ Hegelmann	D 0-0	49.1	1151	1281	19.71%	23.86%	56.43%	-0.95	+2.0	33
2025-10-05	Panevezys	D 3-3	63.4	1244	1230	41.73%	25.82%	32.46%	+0.21	-0.3	50
2025-10-05	@ FA Siauliai	D 3-3	63.4	1230	1244	32.46%	25.82%	41.73%	-0.21	+0.3	42
2025-10-05	Zalgiris	L 1-2	42.5	1162	1309	21.79%	24.42%	53.80%	-0.81	-5.2	41
2025-10-05	@ Dziugas	W 2-1	42.5	1309	1162	53.80%	24.42%	21.79%	+0.81	+5.2	52
2025-10-17	FA Siauliai	W 3-1	38.8	1380	1244	57.02%	23.71%	19.26%	+0.99	+8.1	71
2025-10-17	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 1-3	38.8	1244	1380	19.26%	23.71%	57.02%	-0.99	-8.1	50
2025-10-18	Hegelmann	W 2-0	44.8	1024	1279	13.53%	21.17%	65.31%	-1.50	+25.6	21
2025-10-18	@ Riteriai	L 0-2	44.8	1279	1024	65.31%	21.17%	13.53%	+1.50	-25.6	58
2025-10-18	Panevezys	D 2-2	59.4	1153	1231	29.20%	25.59%	45.21%	-0.37	+0.5	34
2025-10-18	@ Banga Gargzdai	D 2-2	59.4	1231	1153	45.21%	25.59%	29.20%	+0.37	-0.5	43
2025-10-18	Suduva	D 0-0	48.6	1157	1251	27.29%	25.39%	47.33%	-0.47	+1.0	42
2025-10-18	@ Dziugas	D 0-0	48.6	1251	1157	47.33%	25.39%	27.29%	+0.47	-1.0	52
2025-10-18	Zalgiris	D 1-1	55.1	1010	1314	11.00%	19.42%	69.58%	-1.80	+3.0	17
2025-10-18	@ DFK Dainava	D 1-1	55.1	1314	1010	69.58%	19.42%	11.00%	+1.80	-3.0	53
2025-10-22	Banga Gargzdai	L 1-3	47.7	1236	1153	50.78%	24.94%	24.28%	+0.65	-17.9	50
2025-10-22	@ FA Siauliai	W 3-1	47.7	1153	1236	24.28%	24.94%	50.78%	-0.65	+17.9	37
2025-10-22	Riteriai	L 0-1	47.7	1230	1049	61.79%	22.38%	15.82%	+1.27	-13.0	43
2025-10-22	@ Panevezys	W 1-0	47.7	1049	1230	15.82%	22.38%	61.79%	-1.27	+13.0	24
2025-10-22	Zalgiris	L 1-2	52.7	1388	1311	50.09%	25.04%	24.87%	+0.61	-10.2	71
2025-10-22	@ Kauno Zalgiris	W 2-1	52.7	1311	1388	24.87%	25.04%	50.09%	-0.61	+10.2	56
2025-10-23	DFK Dainava	W 2-1	38.2	1250	1013	67.12%	20.46%	12.42%	+1.63	+3.0	55
2025-10-23	@ Suduva	L 1-2	38.2	1013	1250	12.42%	20.46%	67.12%	-1.63	-3.0	17
2025-10-23	Dziugas	W 4-1	36.6	1254	1158	52.36%	24.68%	22.96%	+0.73	+13.4	61
2025-10-23	@ Hegelmann	L 1-4	36.6	1158	1254	22.96%	24.68%	52.36%	-0.73	-13.4	42
2025-10-26	Banga Gargzdai	D 2-2	59.4	1062	1171	25.59%	25.15%	49.26%	-0.57	+0.8	25
2025-10-26	@ Riteriai	D 2-2	59.4	1171	1062	49.26%	25.15%	25.59%	+0.57	-0.8	38
2025-10-26	FA Siauliai	W 1-0	37.0	1321	1218	53.26%	24.52%	22.22%	+0.78	+5.6	59
2025-10-26	@ Zalgiris	L 0-1	37.0	1218	1321	22.22%	24.52%	53.26%	-0.78	-5.6	50
2025-10-26	Panevezys	L 1-4	38.9	1145	1217	29.89%	25.65%	44.46%	-0.34	-16.7	42
2025-10-26	@ Dziugas	W 4-1	38.9	1217	1145	44.46%	25.65%	29.89%	+0.34	+16.7	46
2025-10-27	Hegelmann	L 0-2	29.2	1010	1267	13.46%	21.13%	65.41%	-1.51	-6.5	17
2025-10-27	@ DFK Dainava	W 2-0	29.2	1267	1010	65.41%	21.13%	13.46%	+1.51	+6.5	64
2025-10-27	Kauno Zalgiris	W 1-0	46.4	1253	1378	23.93%	24.87%	51.20%	-0.67	+11.0	58
2025-10-27	@ Suduva	L 0-1	46.4	1378	1253	51.20%	24.87%	23.93%	+0.67	-11.0	71
2025-11-02	DFK Dainava	W 6-0	30.3	1170	1004	60.32%	22.83%	16.85%	+1.18	+22.8	41
2025-11-02	@ Banga Gargzdai	L 0-6	30.3	1004	1170	16.85%	22.83%	60.32%	-1.18	-22.8	17
2025-11-02	FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.6	1264	1212	46.85%	25.44%	27.71%	+0.45	-0.7	59
2025-11-02	@ Suduva	D 2-2	59.6	1212	1264	27.71%	25.44%	46.85%	-0.45	+0.7	51
2025-11-02	Hegelmann	W 3-1	41.7	1327	1274	47.02%	25.42%	27.56%	+0.46	+11.1	62
2025-11-02	@ Zalgiris	L 1-3	41.7	1274	1327	27.56%	25.42%	47.02%	-0.46	-11.1	64
2025-11-02	Panevezys	W 3-2	47.4	1367	1234	56.68%	23.80%	19.52%	+0.97	+4.5	74
2025-11-02	@ Kauno Zalgiris	L 2-3	47.4	1234	1367	19.52%	23.80%	56.68%	-0.97	-4.5	46
2025-11-02	Riteriai	W 4-1	37.5	1128	1063	48.59%	25.24%	26.17%	+0.54	+15.0	45
2025-11-02	@ Dziugas	L 1-4	37.5	1063	1128	26.17%	25.24%	48.59%	-0.54	-15.0	25
2025-11-08	Banga Gargzdai	D 0-0	50.0	1371	1193	61.50%	22.48%	16.03%	+1.25	-2.5	75
2025-11-08	@ Kauno Zalgiris	D 0-0	50.0	1193	1371	16.03%	22.48%	61.50%	-1.25	+2.5	42
2025-11-08	Dziugas	D 2-2	59.5	1213	1143	49.20%	25.16%	25.64%	+0.57	-0.8	52
2025-11-08	@ FA Siauliai	D 2-2	59.5	1143	1213	25.64%	25.16%	49.20%	-0.57	+0.8	46
2025-11-08	Riteriai	D 1-1	53.1	981	1048	30.57%	25.70%	43.73%	-0.30	+0.6	18
2025-11-08	@ DFK Dainava	D 1-1	53.1	1048	981	43.73%	25.70%	30.57%	+0.30	-0.6	26
2025-11-08	Suduva	W 2-1	46.9	1263	1263	39.68%	25.89%	34.43%	+0.12	+7.6	67
2025-11-08	@ Hegelmann	L 1-2	46.9	1263	1263	34.43%	25.89%	39.68%	-0.12	-7.6	59
2025-11-08	Zalgiris	W 3-1	47.9	1229	1338	25.67%	25.17%	49.17%	-0.57	+17.4	49
2025-11-08	@ Panevezys	L 1-3	47.9	1338	1229	49.17%	25.17%	25.67%	+0.57	-17.4	62

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-08-10	13.28%	DFK Dainava	1052	1	@ Hegelmann	1273	0
2	2025-10-18	13.53%	@ Riteriai	1024	2	Hegelmann	1279	0
3	2025-10-22	15.82%	Riteriai	1049	1	@ Panevezys	1230	0
4	2025-07-27	19.98%	Dziugas	1148	3	@ Suduva	1275	2
5	2025-08-24	21.34%	@ Panevezys	1227	1	Kauno Zalgiris	1378	0
6	2025-04-27	21.97%	Banga Gargzdai	1158	1	@ Kauno Zalgiris	1263	0
7	2025-04-25	22.00%	Panevezys	1186	3	@ Zalgiris	1291	2
8	2025-08-08	23.33%	Dziugas	1152	1	@ Panevezys	1244	0
9	2025-10-27	23.93%	@ Suduva	1253	1	Kauno Zalgiris	1378	0
10	2025-03-08	24.26%	Dziugas	1154	2	@ Kauno Zalgiris	1237	1
11	2025-10-22	24.28%	Banga Gargzdai	1153	3	@ FA Siauliai	1236	1
12	2025-10-22	24.87%	Zalgiris	1311	2	@ Kauno Zalgiris	1388	1
13	2025-05-03	25.29%	@ Banga Gargzdai	1169	2	Zalgiris	1281	0
14	2025-04-12	25.52%	@ FA Siauliai	1194	2	Zalgiris	1304	0
15	2025-11-08	25.67%	@ Panevezys	1229	3	Zalgiris	1338	1
16	2025-06-19	25.68%	@ Riteriai	1108	1	FA Siauliai	1216	0
17	2025-06-24	26.53%	@ DFK Dainava	1066	2	Banga Gargzdai	1167	1
18	2025-04-27	28.45%	@ Suduva	1182	4	Hegelmann	1266	0
19	2025-03-01	28.50%	@ Banga Gargzdai	1169	2	Hegelmann	1253	0
20	2025-08-04	28.83%	@ Banga Gargzdai	1143	1	FA Siauliai	1224	0
21	2025-03-02	29.38%	FA Siauliai	1184	3	@ Panevezys	1222	1
22	2025-04-12	29.49%	Dziugas	1161	1	@ Panevezys	1198	0
23	2025-06-29	29.66%	DFK Dainava	1076	2	@ Riteriai	1112	0
24	2025-06-19	31.35%	Banga Gargzdai	1158	1	@ Dziugas	1180	0
25	2025-04-05	31.74%	@ Riteriai	1155	3	Panevezys	1213	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-04-27	36.09	@ Suduva	4	1182	28.45%	Hegelmann	0	1266	46.03%	25.52%
2	2025-06-29	32.38	@ FA Siauliai	5	1206	43.80%	Dziugas	0	1177	30.50%	25.70%
3	2025-08-24	31.30	Banga Gargzdai	5	1146	45.19%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1068	29.22%	25.59%
4	2025-05-10	25.85	@ Panevezys	3	1197	31.86%	Hegelmann	0	1254	42.36%	25.78%
5	2025-10-18	25.57	@ Riteriai	2	1024	13.53%	Hegelmann	0	1279	65.31%	21.17%
6	2025-05-02	24.10	Hegelmann	3	1230	35.40%	@ FA Siauliai	0	1222	38.69%	25.91%
7	2025-11-02	22.78	@ Banga Gargzdai	6	1170	60.32%	DFK Dainava	0	1004	16.85%	22.83%
8	2025-05-17	22.18	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1270	39.47%	Zalgiris	0	1272	34.63%	25.89%
9	2025-05-18	20.51	@ FA Siauliai	3	1204	42.98%	Banga Gargzdai	0	1181	31.27%	25.75%
10	2025-05-03	20.24	@ Banga Gargzdai	2	1169	25.29%	Zalgiris	0	1281	49.61%	25.11%
11	2025-04-12	20.15	@ FA Siauliai	2	1194	25.52%	Zalgiris	0	1304	49.34%	25.14%
12	2025-03-01	19.01	@ Banga Gargzdai	2	1169	28.50%	Hegelmann	0	1253	45.98%	25.52%
13	2025-06-29	18.58	DFK Dainava	2	1076	29.66%	@ Riteriai	0	1112	44.71%	25.63%
14	2025-10-22	17.88	Banga Gargzdai	3	1153	24.28%	@ FA Siauliai	1	1236	50.78%	24.94%
15	2025-05-23	17.64	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1292	48.84%	FA Siauliai	0	1225	25.95%	25.21%
16	2025-05-17	17.63	@ Panevezys	3	1223	48.86%	Riteriai	0	1155	25.94%	25.21%
17	2025-11-08	17.40	@ Panevezys	3	1229	25.67%	Zalgiris	1	1338	49.17%	25.17%
18	2025-03-14	17.32	Dziugas	2	1165	33.26%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1173	40.89%	25.85%
19	2025-06-30	17.08	Suduva	2	1254	33.95%	@ Hegelmann	0	1257	40.17%	25.88%
20	2025-10-26	16.69	Panevezys	4	1217	44.46%	@ Dziugas	1	1145	29.89%	25.65%
21	2025-07-14	16.57	Panevezys	3	1203	50.99%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1080	24.11%	24.91%
22	2025-04-16	16.50	@ Zalgiris	3	1283	51.14%	Suduva	0	1198	23.98%	24.88%
23	2025-05-16	16.43	Suduva	3	1225	51.28%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1100	23.86%	24.86%
24	2025-06-24	16.32	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1328	51.49%	Panevezys	0	1239	23.68%	24.83%
25	2025-03-02	16.19	FA Siauliai	3	1184	29.38%	@ Panevezys	1	1222	45.02%	25.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-03-07	63.7	@ Riteriai	3	1159	22.16%	Zalgiris	3	1302	53.34%	24.50%
2	2025-10-05	63.4	@ FA Siauliai	3	1244	41.73%	Panevezys	3	1230	32.46%	25.82%
3	2025-08-20	60.6	@ FA Siauliai	2	1215	20.08%	Kauno Zalgiris	2	1380	55.96%	23.96%
4	2025-08-03	60.2	@ DFK Dainava	2	1050	16.18%	Suduva	2	1265	61.27%	22.54%
5	2025-06-14	60.0	@ DFK Dainava	2	1074	18.62%	Hegelmann	2	1256	57.87%	23.50%
6	2025-08-24	59.8	@ Hegelmann	2	1278	41.07%	Zalgiris	2	1269	33.09%	25.84%
7	2025-06-19	59.6	@ Suduva	2	1254	40.96%	Zalgiris	2	1246	33.19%	25.85%
8	2025-11-02	59.6	@ Suduva	2	1264	46.85%	FA Siauliai	2	1212	27.71%	25.44%
9	2025-06-25	59.5	@ FA Siauliai	2	1205	32.94%	Suduva	2	1254	41.23%	25.84%
10	2025-08-11	59.5	@ FA Siauliai	2	1214	32.21%	Zalgiris	2	1269	41.99%	25.80%
11	2025-11-08	59.5	@ FA Siauliai	2	1213	49.20%	Dziugas	2	1143	25.64%	25.16%
12	2025-04-16	59.4	@ FA Siauliai	2	1214	43.73%	Riteriai	2	1186	30.57%	25.70%
13	2025-10-18	59.4	@ Banga Gargzdai	2	1153	29.20%	Panevezys	2	1231	45.21%	25.59%
14	2025-10-26	59.4	@ Riteriai	2	1062	25.59%	Banga Gargzdai	2	1171	49.26%	25.15%
15	2025-03-08	59.3	@ FA Siauliai	2	1200	43.68%	DFK Dainava	2	1172	30.61%	25.71%
16	2025-07-27	57.8	Dziugas	3	1148	19.98%	@ Suduva	2	1275	56.09%	23.93%
17	2025-04-25	57.3	Panevezys	3	1186	22.00%	@ Zalgiris	2	1291	53.54%	24.47%
18	2025-03-01	55.2	Suduva	4	1181	36.35%	@ Riteriai	3	1167	37.73%	25.92%
19	2025-10-18	55.1	@ DFK Dainava	1	1010	11.00%	Zalgiris	1	1314	69.58%	19.42%
20	2025-09-24	54.8	@ Kauno Zalgiris	1	1380	54.61%	Suduva	1	1266	21.13%	24.25%
21	2025-10-01	54.6	@ Hegelmann	1	1280	26.77%	Kauno Zalgiris	1	1379	47.90%	25.32%
22	2025-08-20	54.5	@ Zalgiris	1	1271	64.26%	DFK Dainava	1	1065	14.19%	21.55%
23	2025-05-25	54.1	@ Zalgiris	1	1250	60.25%	DFK Dainava	1	1084	16.90%	22.85%
24	2025-03-15	54.0	@ Zalgiris	1	1301	55.28%	Banga Gargzdai	1	1180	20.60%	24.11%
25	2025-09-12	53.7	@ Dziugas	1	1158	56.30%	DFK Dainava	1	1029	19.81%	23.89%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-07-21	25.3	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1363	72.42%	DFK Dainava	0	1064	9.47%	18.11%
2	2025-05-30	27.2	@ Kauno Zalgiris	4	1309	65.90%	DFK Dainava	0	1086	13.16%	20.94%
3	2025-09-14	27.7	@ Kauno Zalgiris	6	1370	74.95%	Riteriai	1	1038	8.21%	16.85%
4	2025-07-28	28.4	@ Hegelmann	3	1255	61.71%	Riteriai	0	1075	15.88%	22.41%
5	2025-09-19	29.0	FA Siauliai	3	1229	59.57%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1031	17.38%	23.05%
6	2025-09-19	29.2	Zalgiris	2	1289	65.51%	@ Riteriai	0	1031	13.40%	21.09%
7	2025-10-27	29.2	Hegelmann	2	1267	65.41%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1010	13.46%	21.13%
8	2025-10-04	30.2	Kauno Zalgiris	1	1378	74.56%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1012	8.39%	17.05%
9	2025-11-02	30.3	@ Banga Gargzdai	6	1170	60.32%	DFK Dainava	0	1004	16.85%	22.83%
10	2025-06-19	31.1	@ Panevezys	2	1231	59.15%	DFK Dainava	0	1075	17.68%	23.16%
11	2025-07-05	31.2	Kauno Zalgiris	5	1353	65.65%	@ Riteriai	1	1093	13.31%	21.04%
12	2025-05-16	31.5	Suduva	3	1225	51.28%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1100	23.86%	24.86%
13	2025-07-14	31.6	Panevezys	3	1203	50.99%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1080	24.11%	24.91%
14	2025-06-30	31.7	Kauno Zalgiris	2	1344	58.35%	@ Banga Gargzdai	0	1157	18.27%	23.38%
15	2025-04-16	31.9	@ Zalgiris	3	1283	51.14%	Suduva	0	1198	23.98%	24.88%
16	2025-06-24	32.1	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1328	51.49%	Panevezys	0	1239	23.68%	24.83%
17	2025-05-17	32.3	@ Panevezys	3	1223	48.86%	Riteriai	0	1155	25.94%	25.21%
18	2025-05-23	32.7	@ Kauno Zalgiris	3	1292	48.84%	FA Siauliai	0	1225	25.95%	25.21%
19	2025-07-11	33.0	FA Siauliai	2	1222	52.90%	@ Riteriai	0	1083	22.51%	24.58%
20	2025-08-10	33.0	@ Banga Gargzdai	2	1153	52.58%	Riteriai	0	1056	22.78%	24.64%
21	2025-07-19	33.2	@ Zalgiris	2	1256	52.56%	Dziugas	0	1158	22.80%	24.65%
22	2025-05-09	33.3	@ Zalgiris	2	1261	52.24%	Riteriai	0	1166	23.06%	24.70%
23	2025-05-31	33.7	@ Hegelmann	2	1245	50.84%	Banga Gargzdai	0	1161	24.23%	24.93%
24	2025-08-22	33.7	Dziugas	2	1159	50.29%	@ Riteriai	0	1042	24.70%	25.01%
25	2025-08-24	34.0	Banga Gargzdai	5	1146	45.19%	@ DFK Dainava	0	1068	29.22%	25.59%