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1973-74 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

38 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Differdange 03

5.46 points above expected

32 points · 26.54 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FC Schifflange 95

7.52 points below expected

4 points · 11.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 18 2 2 38 54 18 +36 32.90 +5.10
2 Differdange 03 22 15 2 5 32 50 27 +23 26.54 +5.46
3 Spora Luxembourg 22 13 4 5 30 53 25 +28 26.88 +3.12
4 Avenir Beggen 22 12 3 7 27 49 33 +16 26.16 +0.84
5 Aris Bonnevoie 22 11 3 8 25 43 28 +15 24.88 +0.12
6 Union Luxembourg 22 8 5 9 21 38 34 +4 19.83 +1.17
7 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 9 3 10 21 33 37 -4 22.18 -1.18
8 Fola Esch 22 8 5 9 21 40 46 -6 20.11 +0.89
9 Red Star Merl 22 8 4 10 20 29 34 -5 20.07 -0.07
10 Rumelange 22 5 6 11 16 35 48 -13 16.49 -0.49
11 Stade Dudelange 22 3 3 16 9 26 50 -24 16.44 -7.44
12 FC Schifflange 95 22 1 2 19 4 12 82 -70 11.52 -7.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Differdange 03 32 26.54 +5.46
2 Jeunesse Esch 38 32.90 +5.10
3 Spora Luxembourg 30 26.88 +3.12
4 Union Luxembourg 21 19.83 +1.17
5 Fola Esch 21 20.11 +0.89

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Schifflange 95 4 11.52 -7.52
2 Stade Dudelange 9 16.44 -7.44
3 Etzella Ettelbruck 21 22.18 -1.18
4 Rumelange 16 16.49 -0.49
5 Red Star Merl 20 20.07 -0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Etzella Ettelbruck 5 Nov 17 – Dec 29 1 in 155
2 Avenir Beggen 6 Dec 9 – Jan 27 1 in 85
3 Jeunesse Esch 9 Sep 9 – Nov 25 1 in 80
4 Rumelange 2 Sep 30 – Oct 14 1 in 35
5 Fola Esch 4 Jan 27 – Mar 10 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aris Bonnevoie 4 Jan 26 – Mar 10 1 in 469
2 FC Schifflange 95 12 Sep 15 – Jan 13 1 in 198
3 Union Luxembourg 4 Sep 23 – Oct 20 1 in 18
4 Red Star Merl 4 Dec 29 – Jan 27 1 in 15
5 Differdange 03 2 Nov 18 – Nov 24 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Differdange 03 10 Jan 5 – Apr 20 1 in 44
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 7 Nov 17 – Jan 20 1 in 32
3 Avenir Beggen 7 Nov 25 – Jan 27 1 in 21
4 Rumelange 3 Sep 30 – Oct 21 1 in 19
5 Jeunesse Esch 14 Sep 2 – Jan 13 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Schifflange 95 21 Sep 9 – Apr 20 1 in 46
2 Aris Bonnevoie 4 Jan 26 – Mar 10 1 in 39
3 Avenir Beggen 4 Oct 21 – Nov 25 1 in 24
4 Fola Esch 7 Nov 18 – Jan 20 1 in 22
5 Spora Luxembourg 3 Mar 17 – Apr 20 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1179 38 +8 8 7.8 +0.2
Differdange 03 1093 32 +117 9 5.5 +3.5
Spora Luxembourg 1059 30 -7 6 7.1 -1.1
Avenir Beggen 897 27 -125 3 6.2 -3.2
Aris Bonnevoie 996 25 +27 5 4.8 +0.2
Union Luxembourg 871 21 +71 7 5.7 +1.3
Fola Esch 907 21 +43 7 4.3 +2.7
Etzella Ettelbruck 858 21 -96 2 4.5 -2.5
Red Star Merl 845 20 +62 6 4.1 +1.9
Rumelange 748 16 +1 4 5.0 -1.0
Stade Dudelange 704 9 -18 3 3.5 -0.5
FC Schifflange 95 432 4 -83 0 1.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB AB D0 EE FS9 FE JE RSM RUM SL SD UL
Aris Bonnevoie —
2-0-0
2.15
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
3.91
1-1-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.35
0-0-2
1.27
2-0-0
3.45
0-0-2
4.35
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-1
3.98
1-0-1
3.69
Avenir Beggen
0-0-2
3.52
—
0-0-2
3.48
1-1-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.44
0-2-0
3.09
1-0-1
1.82
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.74
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
2.85
Differdange 03
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
2.18
—
1-0-1
4.04
2-0-0
5.09
2-0-0
3.66
1-0-1
1.72
2-0-0
3.65
1-0-1
4.48
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
4.06
1-1-0
3.76
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-0-1
1.75
0-1-1
1.78
1-0-1
1.62
—
2-0-0
4.60
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
4.06
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
3.79
0-1-1
3.42
FC Schifflange 95
0-1-1
1.80
0-0-2
1.24
0-0-2
0.60
0-0-2
1.07
—
0-1-1
1.73
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
1.40
0-0-2
0.86
1-0-1
1.62
0-0-2
1.51
Fola Esch
0-0-2
2.32
0-2-0
2.57
0-0-2
2.00
0-0-2
2.75
1-1-0
3.94
—
0-0-2
1.12
1-1-0
2.64
1-1-0
3.70
1-0-1
1.82
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
2.57
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
3.94
2-0-0
4.43
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
4.55
—
2-0-0
4.64
1-1-0
4.36
2-0-0
3.49
2-0-0
4.22
1-1-0
4.73
Red Star Merl
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
4.02
0-1-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.03
—
1-1-0
3.36
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.15
Rumelange
2-0-0
1.32
0-0-2
1.92
1-0-1
1.19
0-1-1
1.61
2-0-0
4.27
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
1.31
0-1-1
2.31
—
0-0-2
1.66
0-2-0
2.94
0-0-2
2.30
Spora Luxembourg
0-1-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
4.82
1-0-1
3.84
0-0-2
2.17
1-1-0
3.26
2-0-0
4.01
—
2-0-0
4.18
1-1-0
3.59
Stade Dudelange
1-1-0
1.68
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
1.87
1-0-1
4.05
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
2.30
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-2
1.49
—
0-0-2
2.22
Union Luxembourg
1-0-1
1.97
0-0-2
2.81
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
2.24
2-0-0
4.15
0-0-2
3.10
0-1-1
0.94
0-1-1
2.51
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
2.08
2-0-0
3.44
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +7.2
Allowed 0.83 -5.2
Differential 0.91 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%6.06%6.82%3.79%2.65%1.89%22.73%
16.06%8.33%5.68%4.92%2.27%2.27%29.55%
26.82%5.68%4.55%2.27%1.14%0.76%21.21%
33.79%4.92%2.27%1.52%0.76%0.76%14.02%
42.65%2.27%1.14%0.76%——6.82%
5+1.89%2.27%0.76%0.76%——5.68%
Total22.73%29.55%21.21%14.02%6.82%5.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.60 1.60 2.53
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
14.55%13.64%13.64%———31.82%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total22.73%36.36%36.36%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.27 +0.68
SD 1.73 0.98 2.23
CV 0.89 0.77 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%—4.55%—4.55%18.18%
29.09%4.55%4.55%——4.55%22.73%
313.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total40.91%22.73%13.64%4.55%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.50 +0.73
SD 2.22 1.79 3.34
CV 1.00 1.20 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
19.09%—13.64%———22.73%
24.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
3—9.09%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—9.09%————9.09%
Total18.18%45.45%31.82%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.23 +1.05
SD 1.42 0.81 1.70
CV 0.62 0.66 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
14.55%13.64%4.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%50.00%
218.18%4.55%————22.73%
3———————
4—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%13.64%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.68 -0.18
SD 1.19 1.43 2.13
CV 0.79 0.85 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%27.27%4.55%9.09%9.09%54.55%
1—9.09%4.55%—4.55%18.18%36.36%
2—4.55%———4.55%9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—18.18%31.82%4.55%13.64%31.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 3.73 -3.18
SD 0.67 2.60 2.59
CV 1.23 0.70 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 1 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%—31.82%
24.55%—13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%—9.09%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%9.09%27.27%9.09%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.09 -0.27
SD 1.22 1.72 2.07
CV 0.67 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
118.18%—4.55%———22.73%
213.64%4.55%————18.18%
39.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
49.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
5+—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
Total54.55%22.73%9.09%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 0.82 +1.64
SD 1.50 1.10 1.56
CV 0.61 1.34 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
113.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
213.64%—9.09%—4.55%—27.27%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total31.82%13.64%31.82%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.55 -0.23
SD 1.29 1.34 1.97
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%13.64%—4.55%31.82%
1—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
2—18.18%13.64%9.09%——40.91%
3———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total—36.36%22.73%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 2.18 -0.59
SD 1.76 1.14 2.15
CV 1.11 0.52 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
29.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
313.64%13.64%————27.27%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total36.36%40.91%4.55%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 1.14 +1.27
SD 1.59 1.28 2.41
CV 0.66 1.13 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%—9.09%——22.73%
1—9.09%9.09%18.18%9.09%—45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%——22.73%
3—4.55%———4.55%9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%31.82%13.64%36.36%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 2.27 -1.09
SD 0.91 1.28 1.48
CV 0.77 0.56 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
14.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
2—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
3—13.64%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total13.64%45.45%18.18%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.55 +0.18
SD 2.16 1.10 2.74
CV 1.25 0.71 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1179 38 32.90 +5.10 97.0% 25 28 31 33 35 37 40
Differdange 03 1093 32 26.54 +5.46 90.0% 16 20 24 26 29 34 35
Spora Luxembourg 1059 30 26.88 +3.12 83.0% 17 19 24 27 30 34 37
Aris Bonnevoie 996 25 24.88 +0.12 57.0% 13 19 22 25 28 30 31
Fola Esch 907 21 20.11 +0.89 60.0% 11 13 17 20 23 27 28
Avenir Beggen 897 27 26.16 +0.84 62.0% 17 20 23 27 29 33 37
Union Luxembourg 871 21 19.83 +1.17 66.0% 10 14 17 20 22 27 28
Etzella Ettelbruck 858 21 22.18 -1.18 44.0% 13 15 19 22 25 28 33
Red Star Merl 845 20 20.07 -0.07 57.0% 5 14 18 19 23 26 32
Rumelange 748 16 16.49 -0.49 47.0% 6 10 14 17 19 22 30
Stade Dudelange 704 9 16.44 -7.44 3.0% 9 11 13 16 19 23 25
FC Schifflange 95 432 4 11.52 -7.52 3.0% 3 5 9 11 14 17 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.79%
No Edge
40.15%15.91%43.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -13.17 Elo pts.
150 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.02 goals
Neutral
-2-0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
73%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.27/gm
Runaway
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.14 * Some Luck: 3.14 to 4.7 * Lucky: 4.7 to 6.27 * Wild Swing: 6.27 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.27 * Close: 1.27 to 1.9 * Off: 1.9 to 2.54 * Way Off: 2.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.89 points
Some Luck
03.9210
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Pinpoint
01.594
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Jeunesse Esch
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
Stade Dudelange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 198.18
2.21
Wide Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
75%
Clear Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Notable Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.12
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch73.00%19.00%7.00%1.00%————————
Differdange 0310.00%18.00%18.00%16.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%——1.00%
Spora Luxembourg11.00%22.00%24.00%15.00%11.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%——
Avenir Beggen4.00%22.00%15.00%22.00%7.00%15.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%——
Aris Bonnevoie1.00%14.00%18.00%16.00%18.00%15.00%8.00%6.00%3.00%—1.00%—
Union Luxembourg——5.00%6.00%12.00%7.00%16.00%18.00%12.00%13.00%10.00%1.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck1.00%1.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%19.00%16.00%8.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Fola Esch——2.00%7.00%8.00%17.00%10.00%18.00%14.00%12.00%8.00%4.00%
Red Star Merl—3.00%2.00%6.00%11.00%3.00%24.00%15.00%11.00%17.00%6.00%2.00%
Rumelange—1.00%—1.00%2.00%3.00%3.00%17.00%18.00%23.00%19.00%13.00%
Stade Dudelange————2.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%25.00%19.00%29.00%12.00%
FC Schifflange 95—————1.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%7.00%22.00%66.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Avenir Beggen 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Spora Luxembourg 100% —
Aris Bonnevoie 99.00% 1.00%
Differdange 03 99.00% 1.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 94.00% 6.00%
Red Star Merl 92.00% 8.00%
Union Luxembourg 89.00% 11.00%
Fola Esch 88.00% 12.00%
Rumelange 68.00% 32.00%
Stade Dudelange 59.00% 41.00%
FC Schifflange 95 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1973-08-31 Union Luxembourg W 3-039.3 852 921 32.11% 16.85% 51.04%-0.55 +61.6 2
1973-08-31 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-339.3 921 852 51.04% 16.85% 32.11%+0.55 -61.6 0
1973-09-01 Red Star Merl W 3-145.8 841 895 34.10% 16.86% 49.04%-0.45 +35.4 2
1973-09-01 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-345.8 895 841 49.04% 16.86% 34.10%+0.45 -35.5 0
1973-09-02 Aris Bonnevoie W 4-034.0 890 859 46.00% 16.87% 37.13%+0.12 +61.3 2
1973-09-02 @ Differdange 03 L 0-434.0 859 890 37.13% 16.87% 46.00%-0.12 -61.3 0
1973-09-02 Fola Esch W 4-249.5 871 908 36.36% 16.87% 46.77%-0.33 +30.4 2
1973-09-02 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-449.5 908 871 46.77% 16.87% 36.36%+0.33 -30.4 0
1973-09-02 Rumelange D 3-363.7 977 866 56.33% 16.81% 26.86%+0.66 -1.9 1
1973-09-02 @ Jeunesse Esch D 3-363.7 866 977 26.86% 16.81% 56.33%-0.66 +1.9 1
1973-09-02 FC Schifflange 95 L 1-250.5 919 791 58.19% 16.79% 25.02%+0.77 -24.0 0
1973-09-02 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-150.5 791 919 25.02% 16.79% 58.19%-0.77 +24.0 2
1973-09-08 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.3 859 877 39.07% 16.87% 44.06%-0.20 +0.5 1
1973-09-08 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-154.3 877 859 44.06% 16.87% 39.07%+0.20 -0.5 3
1973-09-09 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.3 815 798 44.00% 16.87% 39.12%+0.03 -0.5 3
1973-09-09 @ FC Schifflange 95 D 1-154.3 798 815 39.12% 16.87% 44.00%-0.03 +0.5 1
1973-09-09 Differdange 03 L 0-138.1 878 952 31.46% 16.85% 51.70%-0.58 -14.9 0
1973-09-09 @ Fola Esch W 1-038.1 952 878 51.70% 16.85% 31.46%+0.58 +14.9 4
1973-09-09 Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-042.9 859 902 35.65% 16.87% 47.48%-0.37 +21.1 2
1973-09-09 @ Red Star Merl L 0-142.9 902 859 47.48% 16.87% 35.65%+0.37 -21.1 2
1973-09-09 Avenir Beggen L 0-334.6 867 913 35.14% 16.86% 48.00%-0.39 -44.8 1
1973-09-09 @ Rumelange W 3-034.6 913 867 48.00% 16.86% 35.14%+0.39 +44.8 4
1973-09-09 Jeunesse Esch L 0-333.2 895 975 30.61% 16.84% 52.55%-0.63 -39.8 0
1973-09-09 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-033.2 975 895 52.55% 16.84% 30.61%+0.63 +39.8 3
1973-09-15 Union Luxembourg L 1-246.4 880 860 44.54% 16.87% 38.59%+0.05 -18.8 2
1973-09-15 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-146.4 860 880 38.59% 16.87% 44.54%-0.05 +18.8 3
1973-09-15 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-031.4 1015 814 65.47% 16.66% 17.87%+1.25 +17.0 5
1973-09-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-231.4 814 1015 17.87% 16.66% 65.47%-1.25 -17.0 3
1973-09-16 Fola Esch W 4-144.1 798 863 32.66% 16.85% 50.48%-0.52 +51.5 3
1973-09-16 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-444.1 863 798 50.48% 16.85% 32.66%+0.52 -51.5 0
1973-09-16 Stade Dudelange W 2-141.4 958 855 55.32% 16.82% 27.86%+0.60 +12.6 6
1973-09-16 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-241.4 855 958 27.86% 16.82% 55.32%-0.60 -12.6 0
1973-09-16 Red Star Merl W 2-142.0 967 880 53.23% 16.84% 29.94%+0.49 +13.4 6
1973-09-16 @ Differdange 03 L 1-242.0 880 967 29.94% 16.84% 53.23%-0.49 -13.4 2
1973-09-16 Rumelange W 5-032.9 876 823 48.99% 16.86% 34.15%+0.27 +70.4 5
1973-09-16 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-532.9 823 876 34.15% 16.86% 48.99%-0.27 -70.4 1
1973-09-22 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-337.3 867 850 44.04% 16.87% 39.09%+0.03 -54.1 2
1973-09-22 @ Red Star Merl W 3-037.3 850 867 39.09% 16.87% 44.04%-0.03 +54.1 5
1973-09-22 Spora Luxembourg L 0-332.4 842 946 27.76% 16.82% 55.42%-0.78 -36.6 0
1973-09-22 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-032.4 946 842 55.42% 16.82% 27.76%+0.78 +36.6 7
1973-09-23 Avenir Beggen W 4-032.8 1032 971 50.06% 16.86% 33.08%+0.32 +55.6 7
1973-09-23 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-432.8 971 1032 33.08% 16.86% 50.06%-0.32 -55.6 6
1973-09-23 Differdange 03 L 1-241.4 878 980 28.05% 16.82% 55.13%-0.77 -12.7 3
1973-09-23 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-141.4 980 878 55.13% 16.82% 28.05%+0.77 +12.7 8
1973-09-23 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-136.8 752 862 27.15% 16.81% 56.04%-0.82 -13.1 1
1973-09-23 @ Rumelange W 1-036.8 862 752 56.04% 16.81% 27.15%+0.82 +13.1 4
1973-09-29 Union Luxembourg W 2-037.0 904 866 46.93% 16.87% 36.20%+0.17 +31.6 7
1973-09-29 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-237.0 866 904 36.20% 16.87% 46.93%-0.17 -31.6 3
1973-09-29 FC Schifflange 95 W 8-133.0 915 797 57.05% 16.80% 26.15%+0.70 +63.2 8
1973-09-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-833.0 797 915 26.15% 16.80% 57.05%-0.70 -63.2 3
1973-09-30 Rumelange L 1-253.8 993 739 69.66% 16.53% 13.80%+1.60 -28.8 8
1973-09-30 @ Differdange 03 W 2-153.8 739 993 13.80% 16.53% 69.66%-1.60 +28.8 3
1973-09-30 Stade Dudelange L 1-346.4 875 806 51.04% 16.85% 32.11%+0.37 -36.8 4
1973-09-30 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-146.4 806 875 32.11% 16.85% 51.04%-0.37 +36.8 2
1973-09-30 Red Star Merl D 2-259.3 811 813 41.34% 16.88% 41.78%-0.10 +0.0 1
1973-09-30 @ Fola Esch D 2-259.3 813 811 41.78% 16.88% 41.34%+0.10 -0.0 3
1973-09-30 Jeunesse Esch L 0-137.0 983 1088 27.67% 16.82% 55.51%-0.79 -13.3 7
1973-09-30 @ Spora Luxembourg W 1-037.0 1088 983 55.51% 16.82% 27.67%+0.79 +13.3 9
1973-10-06 Fola Esch L 0-138.0 734 811 31.04% 16.84% 52.11%-0.60 -14.7 3
1973-10-06 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 1-038.0 811 734 52.11% 16.84% 31.04%+0.60 +14.7 3
1973-10-13 Spora Luxembourg W 4-035.0 978 970 42.82% 16.88% 40.30%-0.03 +65.6 10
1973-10-13 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-435.0 970 978 40.30% 16.88% 42.82%+0.03 -65.6 7
1973-10-14 Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-131.1 1101 838 70.35% 16.51% 13.14%+1.67 +20.2 11
1973-10-14 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-531.1 838 1101 13.14% 16.51% 70.35%-1.67 -20.2 4
1973-10-14 Fola Esch L 0-435.7 834 826 42.70% 16.88% 40.43%-0.03 -68.9 3
1973-10-14 @ Union Luxembourg W 4-035.7 826 834 40.43% 16.88% 42.70%+0.03 +68.9 5
1973-10-14 FC Schifflange 95 W 4-031.6 813 719 54.14% 16.83% 29.03%+0.54 +49.7 5
1973-10-14 @ Red Star Merl L 0-431.6 719 813 29.03% 16.83% 54.14%-0.54 -49.7 3
1973-10-14 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-151.7 768 935 20.93% 16.73% 62.34%-1.21 +25.7 5
1973-10-14 @ Rumelange L 1-251.7 935 768 62.34% 16.73% 20.93%+1.21 -25.7 7
1973-10-14 Differdange 03 L 0-136.4 843 964 25.76% 16.80% 57.44%-0.90 -12.5 2
1973-10-14 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-036.4 964 843 57.44% 16.80% 25.76%+0.90 +12.5 10
1973-10-20 Union Luxembourg W 1-037.2 863 765 54.62% 16.82% 28.56%+0.56 +13.7 7
1973-10-20 @ Red Star Merl L 0-137.2 765 863 28.56% 16.82% 54.62%-0.56 -13.7 3
1973-10-21 Stade Dudelange D 1-154.3 910 830 52.42% 16.84% 30.74%+0.44 -2.2 8
1973-10-21 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.3 830 910 30.74% 16.84% 52.42%-0.44 +2.2 3
1973-10-21 Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.0 976 1121 23.20% 16.76% 60.04%-1.06 -10.8 10
1973-10-21 @ Differdange 03 W 2-140.0 1121 976 60.04% 16.76% 23.20%+1.06 +10.7 13
1973-10-21 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.4 818 1044 15.78% 16.60% 67.61%-1.60 +5.6 5
1973-10-21 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.4 1044 818 67.61% 16.60% 15.78%+1.60 -5.6 11
1973-10-21 Spora Luxembourg L 0-328.5 670 904 15.19% 16.58% 68.23%-1.65 -21.2 3
1973-10-21 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 3-028.5 904 670 68.23% 16.58% 15.19%+1.65 +21.2 9
1973-10-21 Rumelange D 2-259.3 895 794 55.09% 16.82% 28.09%+0.59 -2.1 6
1973-10-21 @ Fola Esch D 2-259.3 794 895 28.09% 16.82% 55.09%-0.59 +2.0 6
1973-11-10 Differdange 03 L 1-346.5 1039 966 51.56% 16.85% 31.60%+0.40 -37.1 11
1973-11-10 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-146.5 966 1039 31.60% 16.85% 51.56%-0.40 +37.1 12
1973-11-11 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-033.4 1132 908 67.47% 16.61% 15.93%+1.41 +8.1 15
1973-11-11 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-133.4 908 1132 15.93% 16.61% 67.47%-1.41 -8.1 8
1973-11-11 FC Schifflange 95 W 5-135.6 751 648 55.29% 16.82% 27.89%+0.60 +40.0 5
1973-11-11 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-535.6 648 751 27.89% 16.82% 55.29%-0.60 -40.0 3
1973-11-11 Red Star Merl L 0-235.3 796 876 30.64% 16.84% 52.52%-0.62 -27.4 6
1973-11-11 @ Rumelange W 2-035.3 876 796 52.52% 16.84% 30.64%+0.62 +27.4 9
1973-11-11 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-137.4 925 823 55.17% 16.82% 28.01%+0.59 +31.1 11
1973-11-11 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-437.4 823 925 28.01% 16.82% 55.17%-0.59 -31.1 5
1973-11-11 Fola Esch L 2-347.9 832 893 33.18% 16.86% 49.97%-0.49 -13.9 3
1973-11-11 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-247.9 893 832 49.97% 16.86% 33.18%+0.49 +13.9 8
1973-11-17 Avenir Beggen W 5-039.2 899 1001 28.00% 16.82% 55.18%-0.77 +106.7 10
1973-11-17 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-539.2 1001 899 55.18% 16.82% 28.00%+0.77 -106.7 11
1973-11-17 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-231.9 609 792 19.39% 16.70% 63.91%-1.31 -18.3 3
1973-11-17 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 2-031.9 792 609 63.91% 16.70% 19.39%+1.31 +18.3 7
1973-11-18 Spora Luxembourg L 0-240.5 1003 956 48.06% 16.86% 35.08%+0.22 -40.2 12
1973-11-18 @ Differdange 03 W 2-040.5 956 1003 35.08% 16.86% 48.06%-0.22 +40.2 13
1973-11-18 Jeunesse Esch L 3-445.9 907 1140 15.25% 16.59% 68.16%-1.65 -6.8 8
1973-11-18 @ Fola Esch W 4-345.9 1140 907 68.16% 16.59% 15.25%+1.65 +6.8 17
1973-11-18 Rumelange W 3-142.5 791 768 44.84% 16.87% 38.29%+0.07 +28.7 7
1973-11-18 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-342.5 768 791 38.29% 16.87% 44.84%-0.07 -28.7 6
1973-11-18 Stade Dudelange W 5-347.0 904 818 53.13% 16.84% 30.03%+0.48 +19.7 11
1973-11-18 @ Red Star Merl L 3-547.0 818 904 30.03% 16.84% 53.13%-0.48 -19.7 3
1973-11-24 Differdange 03 W 2-151.2 811 963 22.46% 16.75% 60.78%-1.10 +25.0 9
1973-11-24 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-251.2 963 811 60.78% 16.75% 22.46%+1.10 -25.0 12
1973-11-24 Aris Bonnevoie L 2-447.5 997 1006 40.19% 16.88% 42.93%-0.15 -26.7 13
1973-11-24 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-247.5 1006 997 42.93% 16.88% 40.19%+0.15 +26.7 12
1973-11-25 Fola Esch D 0-050.9 895 900 40.80% 16.88% 42.32%-0.12 +0.2 12
1973-11-25 @ Avenir Beggen D 0-050.9 900 895 42.32% 16.88% 40.80%+0.12 -0.2 9
1973-11-25 Red Star Merl W 4-027.6 1147 923 67.39% 16.61% 16.00%+1.41 +29.1 19
1973-11-25 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-427.6 923 1147 16.00% 16.61% 67.39%-1.41 -29.1 11
1973-11-25 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-139.8 740 590 60.51% 16.76% 22.73%+0.91 +10.6 8
1973-11-25 @ Rumelange L 1-239.8 590 740 22.73% 16.76% 60.51%-0.91 -10.6 3
1973-11-25 Union Luxembourg L 1-342.6 799 820 38.50% 16.87% 44.63%-0.23 -28.8 3
1973-11-25 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-142.6 820 799 44.63% 16.87% 38.50%+0.23 +28.8 9
1973-12-08 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-245.6 1033 836 65.15% 16.67% 18.18%+1.23 -53.7 12
1973-12-08 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-045.6 836 1033 18.18% 16.67% 65.15%-1.23 +53.7 11
1973-12-08 Spora Luxembourg L 0-532.2 900 970 31.98% 16.85% 51.17%-0.55 -66.5 9
1973-12-08 @ Fola Esch W 5-032.2 970 900 51.17% 16.85% 31.98%+0.55 +66.5 15
1973-12-09 Differdange 03 L 1-529.5 580 937 8.06% 16.20% 75.74%-2.48 -12.7 3
1973-12-09 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 5-129.5 937 580 75.74% 16.20% 8.06%+2.48 +12.7 14
1973-12-09 Jeunesse Esch D 0-051.0 849 1176 9.46% 16.31% 74.23%-2.27 +8.0 10
1973-12-09 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-051.0 1176 849 74.23% 16.31% 9.46%+2.27 -8.0 20
1973-12-09 Avenir Beggen L 0-238.6 894 895 41.46% 16.88% 41.66%-0.09 -35.4 11
1973-12-09 @ Red Star Merl W 2-038.6 895 894 41.66% 16.88% 41.46%+0.09 +35.4 14
1973-12-09 Stade Dudelange D 2-259.3 750 770 38.78% 16.87% 44.35%-0.22 +0.4 9
1973-12-09 @ Rumelange D 2-259.3 770 750 44.35% 16.87% 38.78%+0.22 -0.4 4
1973-12-15 Differdange 03 W 1-039.9 979 950 45.66% 16.87% 37.47%+0.11 +17.3 14
1973-12-15 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-139.9 950 979 37.47% 16.87% 45.66%-0.11 -17.3 14
1973-12-15 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.4 859 1036 19.96% 16.71% 63.33%-1.27 +4.6 12
1973-12-15 @ Red Star Merl D 1-154.4 1036 859 63.33% 16.71% 19.96%+1.27 -4.6 16
1973-12-16 Stade Dudelange L 0-231.4 567 769 17.74% 16.66% 65.60%-1.44 -16.9 3
1973-12-16 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 2-031.4 769 567 65.60% 16.66% 17.74%+1.44 +16.9 6
1973-12-16 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-439.1 833 889 33.80% 16.86% 49.34%-0.46 -36.5 9
1973-12-16 @ Fola Esch W 4-139.1 889 833 49.34% 16.86% 33.80%+0.46 +36.5 13
1973-12-16 Avenir Beggen L 2-347.4 857 930 31.54% 16.85% 51.62%-0.58 -13.3 10
1973-12-16 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-247.4 930 857 51.62% 16.85% 31.54%+0.58 +13.3 16
1973-12-16 Jeunesse Esch L 0-325.5 751 1168 5.86% 15.97% 78.17%-2.88 -8.6 9
1973-12-16 @ Rumelange W 3-025.5 1168 751 78.17% 15.97% 5.86%+2.88 +8.6 22
1973-12-22 FC Schifflange 95 W 4-024.1 996 550 79.13% 15.85% 5.02%+2.89 +9.6 16
1973-12-22 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-424.1 550 996 5.02% 15.85% 79.13%-2.89 -9.6 3
1973-12-29 Red Star Merl W 2-036.0 926 863 50.20% 16.85% 32.94%+0.33 +29.2 15
1973-12-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-236.0 863 926 32.94% 16.85% 50.20%-0.33 -29.2 12
1973-12-30 Rumelange W 1-033.9 944 742 65.54% 16.66% 17.81%+1.26 +9.0 18
1973-12-30 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-133.9 742 944 17.81% 16.66% 65.54%-1.26 -9.0 9
1973-12-30 Stade Dudelange W 4-130.8 1177 786 77.14% 16.08% 6.78%+2.52 +8.3 24
1973-12-30 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-430.8 786 1177 6.78% 16.08% 77.14%-2.52 -8.3 6
1973-12-30 Union Luxembourg W 2-031.8 1032 844 64.33% 16.69% 18.99%+1.17 +18.0 18
1973-12-30 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-231.8 844 1032 18.99% 16.69% 64.33%-1.17 -18.0 10
1974-01-05 Fola Esch W 3-138.3 933 797 59.09% 16.78% 24.14%+0.82 +19.3 16
1974-01-05 @ Differdange 03 L 1-338.3 797 933 24.14% 16.78% 59.09%-0.82 -19.3 9
1974-01-12 Avenir Beggen L 1-337.1 778 953 20.23% 16.71% 63.06%-1.25 -16.5 6
1974-01-12 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-137.1 953 778 63.06% 16.71% 20.23%+1.25 +16.5 20
1974-01-13 Jeunesse Esch L 0-226.0 541 1185 1.70% 14.82% 83.48%-4.39 -1.7 3
1974-01-13 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 2-026.0 1185 541 83.48% 14.82% 1.70%+4.39 +1.7 26
1974-01-13 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-237.6 778 1006 15.63% 16.60% 67.77%-1.61 -7.5 9
1974-01-13 @ Fola Esch W 2-137.6 1006 778 67.77% 16.60% 15.63%+1.61 +7.5 18
1974-01-13 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.4 826 955 24.87% 16.79% 58.34%-0.95 +3.5 11
1974-01-13 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-154.4 955 826 58.34% 16.79% 24.87%+0.95 -3.5 16
1974-01-13 Differdange 03 L 1-240.8 834 952 26.14% 16.80% 57.06%-0.88 -11.9 12
1974-01-13 @ Red Star Merl W 2-140.8 952 834 57.06% 16.80% 26.14%+0.88 +11.9 18
1974-01-13 Spora Luxembourg L 0-326.9 733 1050 10.00% 16.35% 73.66%-2.20 -14.3 9
1974-01-13 @ Rumelange W 3-026.9 1050 733 73.66% 16.35% 10.00%+2.20 +14.3 20
1974-01-19 Red Star Merl W 4-241.0 1013 822 64.61% 16.68% 18.71%+1.19 +13.7 20
1974-01-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-441.0 822 1013 18.71% 16.68% 64.61%-1.19 -13.7 12
1974-01-19 Stade Dudelange W 3-134.1 1064 761 72.86% 16.39% 10.75%+1.93 +9.2 22
1974-01-19 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-334.1 761 1064 10.75% 16.39% 72.86%-1.93 -9.2 6
1974-01-20 Jeunesse Esch W 2-046.2 969 1187 16.48% 16.62% 66.90%-1.54 +55.2 22
1974-01-20 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-246.2 1187 969 66.90% 16.62% 16.48%+1.54 -55.2 26
1974-01-20 Union Luxembourg D 3-363.7 964 829 58.97% 16.78% 24.25%+0.81 -2.2 19
1974-01-20 @ Differdange 03 D 3-363.7 829 964 24.25% 16.78% 58.97%-0.81 +2.2 12
1974-01-20 Rumelange D 1-154.4 952 719 68.12% 16.59% 15.29%+1.47 -5.7 17
1974-01-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.4 719 952 15.29% 16.59% 68.12%-1.47 +5.7 10
1974-01-20 FC Schifflange 95 D 1-154.4 770 539 67.99% 16.59% 15.42%+1.46 -5.7 10
1974-01-20 @ Fola Esch D 1-154.4 539 770 15.42% 16.59% 67.99%-1.46 +5.7 4
1974-01-26 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-048.1 831 1027 18.30% 16.67% 65.03%-1.40 +28.4 14
1974-01-26 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-148.1 1027 831 65.03% 16.67% 18.30%+1.40 -28.4 20
1974-01-27 Avenir Beggen L 0-824.8 544 1024 4.19% 15.69% 80.12%-3.29 -15.4 4
1974-01-27 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 8-024.8 1024 544 80.12% 15.69% 4.19%+3.29 +15.4 24
1974-01-27 Spora Luxembourg W 3-141.1 1131 1073 49.64% 16.86% 33.50%+0.30 +25.6 28
1974-01-27 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-341.1 1073 1131 33.50% 16.86% 49.64%-0.30 -25.6 22
1974-01-27 Fola Esch L 0-240.4 809 764 47.75% 16.87% 35.38%+0.21 -40.0 12
1974-01-27 @ Red Star Merl W 2-040.4 764 809 35.38% 16.87% 47.75%-0.21 +40.0 12
1974-01-27 Differdange 03 L 2-342.4 724 962 14.94% 16.58% 68.48%-1.67 -6.8 10
1974-01-27 @ Rumelange W 3-242.4 962 724 68.48% 16.58% 14.94%+1.67 +6.8 21
1974-02-09 Rumelange L 1-254.4 999 718 71.55% 16.46% 12.00%+1.79 -29.6 20
1974-02-09 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-154.4 718 999 12.00% 16.46% 71.55%-1.79 +29.6 12
1974-02-09 Stade Dudelange W 3-242.9 969 752 66.80% 16.63% 16.57%+1.36 +7.5 23
1974-02-09 @ Differdange 03 L 2-342.9 752 969 16.57% 16.63% 66.80%-1.36 -7.5 6
1974-02-09 Jeunesse Esch L 1-336.1 946 1157 17.00% 16.64% 66.37%-1.50 -14.1 17
1974-02-09 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-136.1 1157 946 66.37% 16.64% 17.00%+1.50 +14.1 30
1974-02-09 Red Star Merl L 0-230.5 529 769 14.80% 16.57% 68.63%-1.69 -14.3 4
1974-02-09 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 2-030.5 769 529 68.63% 16.57% 14.80%+1.69 +14.3 14
1974-02-09 Union Luxembourg W 3-038.8 804 860 33.87% 16.86% 49.27%-0.46 +59.7 14
1974-02-09 @ Fola Esch L 0-338.8 860 804 49.27% 16.86% 33.87%+0.46 -59.7 14
1974-02-09 Avenir Beggen W 1-040.8 1048 1040 42.69% 16.88% 40.43%-0.04 +18.4 24
1974-02-09 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-140.8 1040 1048 40.43% 16.88% 42.69%+0.04 -18.4 24
1974-02-16 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-434.6 745 932 19.09% 16.69% 64.23%-1.34 -22.1 6
1974-02-16 @ Stade Dudelange W 4-134.6 932 745 64.23% 16.69% 19.09%+1.34 +22.1 19
1974-03-02 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-033.7 1021 954 50.85% 16.85% 32.30%+0.36 +41.7 26
1974-03-02 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-333.7 954 1021 32.30% 16.85% 50.85%-0.36 -41.7 19
1974-03-02 Red Star Merl D 1-154.3 800 783 44.02% 16.87% 39.10%+0.03 -0.5 15
1974-03-02 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-154.3 783 800 39.10% 16.87% 44.02%-0.03 +0.5 15
1974-03-03 Fola Esch L 3-449.3 747 864 26.27% 16.80% 56.93%-0.87 -11.1 12
1974-03-03 @ Rumelange W 4-349.3 864 747 56.93% 16.80% 26.27%+0.87 +11.1 16
1974-03-03 FC Schifflange 95 W 6-126.5 1066 515 81.82% 15.34% 2.84%+3.59 +5.5 26
1974-03-03 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-626.5 515 1066 2.84% 15.34% 81.82%-3.59 -5.5 4
1974-03-03 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-153.7 723 969 14.29% 16.55% 69.16%-1.73 +28.6 8
1974-03-03 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-253.7 969 723 69.16% 16.55% 14.29%+1.73 -28.6 20
1974-03-09 Avenir Beggen W 5-143.3 976 1063 29.86% 16.84% 53.31%-0.67 +69.8 25
1974-03-09 @ Differdange 03 L 1-543.3 1063 976 53.31% 16.84% 29.86%+0.67 -69.9 26
1974-03-10 Jeunesse Esch L 0-230.7 941 1171 15.46% 16.59% 67.95%-1.63 -14.9 20
1974-03-10 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-030.7 1171 941 67.95% 16.59% 15.46%+1.63 +14.9 32
1974-03-10 Spora Luxembourg L 1-337.5 912 1071 21.73% 16.74% 61.53%-1.15 -17.6 19
1974-03-10 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-137.5 1071 912 61.53% 16.74% 21.73%+1.15 +17.6 28
1974-03-10 Union Luxembourg L 0-927.6 509 800 11.45% 16.43% 72.12%-2.03 -45.9 4
1974-03-10 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 9-027.6 800 509 72.12% 16.43% 11.45%+2.03 +45.9 17
1974-03-10 Stade Dudelange W 1-036.3 875 751 57.73% 16.79% 25.47%+0.74 +12.4 18
1974-03-10 @ Fola Esch L 0-136.3 751 875 25.47% 16.79% 57.73%-0.74 -12.4 8
1974-03-10 Rumelange D 2-259.3 783 736 48.17% 16.86% 34.97%+0.23 -1.0 16
1974-03-10 @ Red Star Merl D 2-259.3 736 783 34.97% 16.86% 48.17%-0.23 +1.0 13
1974-03-16 Aris Bonnevoie L 2-547.7 993 926 50.85% 16.85% 32.30%+0.36 -44.9 26
1974-03-16 @ Avenir Beggen W 5-247.7 926 993 32.30% 16.85% 50.85%-0.36 +44.9 22
1974-03-17 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-027.5 895 463 78.65% 15.91% 5.44%+2.79 +5.5 21
1974-03-17 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-227.5 463 895 5.44% 15.91% 78.65%-2.79 -5.5 4
1974-03-17 Fola Esch W 5-341.1 1186 888 72.62% 16.40% 10.98%+1.91 +7.9 34
1974-03-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 3-541.1 888 1186 10.98% 16.40% 72.62%-1.91 -7.9 18
1974-03-17 Differdange 03 D 2-259.3 1089 1046 47.59% 16.87% 35.54%+0.20 -0.9 29
1974-03-17 @ Spora Luxembourg D 2-259.3 1046 1089 35.54% 16.87% 47.59%-0.20 +0.9 26
1974-03-17 Red Star Merl L 0-139.3 739 782 35.48% 16.87% 47.66%-0.38 -16.5 8
1974-03-17 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-039.3 782 739 47.66% 16.87% 35.48%+0.38 +16.5 18
1974-03-31 Differdange 03 L 1-251.1 1194 1047 60.25% 16.76% 22.99%+0.89 -24.8 34
1974-03-31 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-151.1 1047 1194 22.99% 16.76% 60.25%-0.89 +24.8 28
1974-03-31 Union Luxembourg L 2-346.1 737 846 27.24% 16.81% 55.94%-0.81 -11.7 13
1974-03-31 @ Rumelange W 3-246.1 846 737 55.94% 16.81% 27.24%+0.81 +11.8 19
1974-04-06 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.4 971 1088 26.18% 16.80% 57.01%-0.87 +3.2 23
1974-04-06 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.4 1088 971 57.01% 16.80% 26.18%+0.87 -3.2 30
1974-04-06 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-032.2 1072 900 62.77% 16.72% 20.51%+1.06 +19.2 30
1974-04-06 @ Differdange 03 L 0-232.2 900 1072 20.51% 16.72% 62.77%-1.06 -19.2 21
1974-04-06 Rumelange L 2-830.4 458 725 12.86% 16.50% 70.64%-1.87 -23.8 4
1974-04-06 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 8-230.4 725 458 70.64% 16.50% 12.86%+1.87 +23.8 15
1974-04-06 Avenir Beggen D 2-259.3 880 948 32.15% 16.85% 51.00%-0.55 +1.4 19
1974-04-06 @ Fola Esch D 2-259.3 948 880 51.00% 16.85% 32.15%+0.55 -1.4 27
1974-04-06 Stade Dudelange W 3-138.3 857 722 58.96% 16.78% 24.27%+0.81 +19.4 21
1974-04-06 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-338.3 722 857 24.27% 16.78% 58.96%-0.81 -19.4 8
1974-04-06 Jeunesse Esch L 0-130.7 799 1169 7.54% 16.16% 76.30%-2.56 -4.0 18
1974-04-06 @ Red Star Merl W 1-030.7 1169 799 76.30% 16.16% 7.54%+2.56 +4.0 36
1974-04-20 Red Star Merl L 0-244.3 947 795 60.79% 16.75% 22.46%+0.93 -50.1 27
1974-04-20 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-044.3 795 947 22.46% 16.75% 60.79%-0.93 +50.1 20
1974-04-20 FC Schifflange 95 W 4-128.8 1091 434 83.67% 14.75% 1.58%+4.30 +1.9 32
1974-04-20 @ Differdange 03 L 1-428.8 434 1091 1.58% 14.75% 83.67%-4.30 -1.9 4
1974-04-20 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-339.8 881 974 29.11% 16.83% 54.06%-0.71 -22.7 21
1974-04-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-139.8 974 881 54.06% 16.83% 29.11%+0.71 +22.7 25
1974-04-20 Union Luxembourg W 1-031.9 1173 877 72.50% 16.41% 11.09%+1.89 +5.8 38
1974-04-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-131.9 877 1173 11.09% 16.41% 72.50%-1.89 -5.8 21
1974-04-20 Fola Esch L 2-357.6 1085 881 65.74% 16.65% 17.61%+1.27 -25.7 30
1974-04-20 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-257.6 881 1085 17.61% 16.65% 65.74%-1.27 +25.7 21
1974-04-20 Rumelange D 1-154.3 703 749 35.12% 16.86% 48.02%-0.40 +1.3 9
1974-04-20 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-154.3 749 703 48.02% 16.86% 35.12%+0.40 -1.3 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1974-02-09 12.00% Rumelange 718 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 999 1
2 1973-09-30 13.80% Rumelange 739 2 @ Differdange 03 993 1
3 1974-03-03 14.29% @ Stade Dudelange 723 2 Aris Bonnevoie 969 1
4 1974-01-20 16.48% @ Avenir Beggen 969 2 Jeunesse Esch 1187 0
5 1974-04-20 17.61% Fola Esch 881 3 @ Spora Luxembourg 1085 2
6 1973-12-08 18.18% Etzella Ettelbruck 836 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1033 0
7 1974-01-26 18.30% @ Union Luxembourg 831 1 Aris Bonnevoie 1027 0
8 1973-10-14 20.93% @ Rumelange 768 2 Aris Bonnevoie 935 1
9 1973-11-24 22.46% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 811 2 Differdange 03 963 1
10 1974-04-20 22.46% Red Star Merl 795 2 @ Avenir Beggen 947 0
11 1974-03-31 22.99% Differdange 03 1047 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1194 1
12 1973-09-02 25.02% FC Schifflange 95 791 2 @ Stade Dudelange 919 1
13 1973-11-17 28.00% @ Aris Bonnevoie 899 5 Avenir Beggen 1001 0
14 1974-03-09 29.86% @ Differdange 03 976 5 Avenir Beggen 1063 1
15 1973-11-10 31.60% Differdange 03 966 3 @ Avenir Beggen 1039 1
16 1973-08-31 32.11% @ Avenir Beggen 852 3 Union Luxembourg 921 0
17 1973-09-30 32.11% Stade Dudelange 806 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 875 1
18 1974-03-16 32.30% Aris Bonnevoie 926 5 @ Avenir Beggen 993 2
19 1973-09-16 32.66% @ Aris Bonnevoie 798 4 Fola Esch 863 1
20 1974-02-09 33.87% @ Fola Esch 804 3 Union Luxembourg 860 0
21 1973-09-01 34.10% @ Spora Luxembourg 841 3 Red Star Merl 895 1
22 1973-11-18 35.08% Spora Luxembourg 956 2 @ Differdange 03 1003 0
23 1974-01-27 35.38% Fola Esch 764 2 @ Red Star Merl 809 0
24 1973-09-09 35.65% @ Red Star Merl 859 1 Etzella Ettelbruck 902 0
25 1973-09-02 36.36% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 871 4 Fola Esch 908 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-11-17 106.71 @ Aris Bonnevoie 5 899 28.00% Avenir Beggen 0 1001 55.18% 16.82%
2 1973-09-16 70.36 @ Spora Luxembourg 5 876 48.99% Rumelange 0 823 34.15% 16.86%
3 1974-03-09 69.85 @ Differdange 03 5 976 29.86% Avenir Beggen 1 1063 53.31% 16.84%
4 1973-10-14 68.89 Fola Esch 4 826 40.43% @ Union Luxembourg 0 834 42.70% 16.88%
5 1973-12-08 66.52 Spora Luxembourg 5 970 51.17% @ Fola Esch 0 900 31.98% 16.85%
6 1973-10-13 65.64 @ Avenir Beggen 4 978 42.82% Spora Luxembourg 0 970 40.30% 16.88%
7 1973-09-29 63.21 @ Avenir Beggen 8 915 57.05% FC Schifflange 95 1 797 26.15% 16.80%
8 1973-08-31 61.65 @ Avenir Beggen 3 852 32.11% Union Luxembourg 0 921 51.04% 16.85%
9 1973-09-02 61.28 @ Differdange 03 4 890 46.00% Aris Bonnevoie 0 859 37.13% 16.87%
10 1974-02-09 59.71 @ Fola Esch 3 804 33.87% Union Luxembourg 0 860 49.27% 16.86%
11 1973-09-23 55.57 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1032 50.06% Avenir Beggen 0 971 33.08% 16.86%
12 1974-01-20 55.22 @ Avenir Beggen 2 969 16.48% Jeunesse Esch 0 1187 66.90% 16.62%
13 1973-09-22 54.13 Aris Bonnevoie 3 850 39.09% @ Red Star Merl 0 867 44.04% 16.87%
14 1973-12-08 53.73 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 836 18.18% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 1033 65.15% 16.67%
15 1973-09-16 51.47 @ Aris Bonnevoie 4 798 32.66% Fola Esch 1 863 50.48% 16.85%
16 1974-04-20 50.11 Red Star Merl 2 795 22.46% @ Avenir Beggen 0 947 60.79% 16.75%
17 1973-10-14 49.67 @ Red Star Merl 4 813 54.14% FC Schifflange 95 0 719 29.03% 16.83%
18 1974-03-10 45.92 Union Luxembourg 9 800 72.12% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 509 11.45% 16.43%
19 1974-03-16 44.87 Aris Bonnevoie 5 926 32.30% @ Avenir Beggen 2 993 50.85% 16.85%
20 1973-09-09 44.77 Avenir Beggen 3 913 48.00% @ Rumelange 0 867 35.14% 16.86%
21 1974-03-02 41.68 @ Avenir Beggen 3 1021 50.85% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 954 32.30% 16.85%
22 1973-11-18 40.21 Spora Luxembourg 2 956 35.08% @ Differdange 03 0 1003 48.06% 16.86%
23 1974-01-27 39.98 Fola Esch 2 764 35.38% @ Red Star Merl 0 809 47.75% 16.87%
24 1973-11-11 39.96 @ Union Luxembourg 5 751 55.29% FC Schifflange 95 1 648 27.89% 16.82%
25 1973-09-09 39.80 Jeunesse Esch 3 975 52.55% @ Stade Dudelange 0 895 30.61% 16.84%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-09-02 63.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 977 56.33% Rumelange 3 866 26.86% 16.81%
2 1974-01-20 63.7 @ Differdange 03 3 964 58.97% Union Luxembourg 3 829 24.25% 16.78%
3 1973-09-30 59.3 @ Fola Esch 2 811 41.34% Red Star Merl 2 813 41.78% 16.88%
4 1973-10-21 59.3 @ Fola Esch 2 895 55.09% Rumelange 2 794 28.09% 16.82%
5 1973-12-09 59.3 @ Rumelange 2 750 38.78% Stade Dudelange 2 770 44.35% 16.87%
6 1974-03-10 59.3 @ Red Star Merl 2 783 48.17% Rumelange 2 736 34.97% 16.86%
7 1974-03-17 59.3 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 1089 47.59% Differdange 03 2 1046 35.54% 16.87%
8 1974-04-06 59.3 @ Fola Esch 2 880 32.15% Avenir Beggen 2 948 51.00% 16.85%
9 1974-04-20 57.6 Fola Esch 3 881 17.61% @ Spora Luxembourg 2 1085 65.74% 16.65%
10 1973-10-21 54.4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 818 15.78% Avenir Beggen 1 1044 67.61% 16.60%
11 1973-12-15 54.4 @ Red Star Merl 1 859 19.96% Spora Luxembourg 1 1036 63.33% 16.71%
12 1974-01-13 54.4 @ Union Luxembourg 1 826 24.87% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 955 58.34% 16.79%
13 1974-01-20 54.4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 952 68.12% Rumelange 1 719 15.29% 16.59%
14 1974-01-20 54.4 @ Fola Esch 1 770 67.99% FC Schifflange 95 1 539 15.42% 16.59%
15 1974-02-09 54.4 Rumelange 2 718 12.00% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 999 71.55% 16.46%
16 1974-04-06 54.4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 971 26.18% Spora Luxembourg 1 1088 57.01% 16.80%
17 1973-09-08 54.3 @ Union Luxembourg 1 859 39.07% Spora Luxembourg 1 877 44.06% 16.87%
18 1973-09-09 54.3 @ FC Schifflange 95 1 815 44.00% Aris Bonnevoie 1 798 39.12% 16.87%
19 1973-10-21 54.3 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 910 52.42% Stade Dudelange 1 830 30.74% 16.84%
20 1974-03-02 54.3 @ Union Luxembourg 1 800 44.02% Red Star Merl 1 783 39.10% 16.87%
21 1974-04-20 54.3 @ Stade Dudelange 1 703 35.12% Rumelange 1 749 48.02% 16.86%
22 1973-09-30 53.8 Rumelange 2 739 13.80% @ Differdange 03 1 993 69.66% 16.53%
23 1974-03-03 53.7 @ Stade Dudelange 2 723 14.29% Aris Bonnevoie 1 969 69.16% 16.55%
24 1973-10-14 51.7 @ Rumelange 2 768 20.93% Aris Bonnevoie 1 935 62.34% 16.73%
25 1973-11-24 51.2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 811 22.46% Differdange 03 1 963 60.78% 16.75%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-12-22 24.1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 4 996 79.13% FC Schifflange 95 0 550 5.02% 15.85%
2 1974-01-27 24.8 Avenir Beggen 8 1024 80.12% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 544 4.19% 15.69%
3 1973-12-16 25.5 Jeunesse Esch 3 1168 78.17% @ Rumelange 0 751 5.86% 15.97%
4 1974-01-13 26.0 Jeunesse Esch 2 1185 83.48% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 541 1.70% 14.82%
5 1974-03-03 26.5 @ Spora Luxembourg 6 1066 81.82% FC Schifflange 95 1 515 2.84% 15.34%
6 1974-01-13 26.9 Spora Luxembourg 3 1050 73.66% @ Rumelange 0 733 10.00% 16.35%
7 1974-03-17 27.5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 895 78.65% FC Schifflange 95 0 463 5.44% 15.91%
8 1973-11-25 27.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1147 67.39% Red Star Merl 0 923 16.00% 16.61%
9 1974-03-10 27.6 Union Luxembourg 9 800 72.12% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 509 11.45% 16.43%
10 1973-10-21 28.5 Spora Luxembourg 3 904 68.23% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 670 15.19% 16.58%
11 1974-04-20 28.8 @ Differdange 03 4 1091 83.67% FC Schifflange 95 1 434 1.58% 14.75%
12 1973-12-09 29.5 Differdange 03 5 937 75.74% @ FC Schifflange 95 1 580 8.06% 16.20%
13 1974-04-06 30.4 Rumelange 8 725 70.64% @ FC Schifflange 95 2 458 12.86% 16.50%
14 1974-02-09 30.5 Red Star Merl 2 769 68.63% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 529 14.80% 16.57%
15 1974-03-10 30.7 Jeunesse Esch 2 1171 67.95% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 941 15.46% 16.59%
16 1974-04-06 30.7 Jeunesse Esch 1 1169 76.30% @ Red Star Merl 0 799 7.54% 16.16%
17 1973-12-30 30.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1177 77.14% Stade Dudelange 1 786 6.78% 16.08%
18 1973-10-14 31.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 1101 70.35% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 838 13.14% 16.51%
19 1973-09-15 31.4 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1015 65.47% FC Schifflange 95 0 814 17.87% 16.66%
20 1973-12-16 31.4 Stade Dudelange 2 769 65.60% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 567 17.74% 16.66%
21 1973-10-14 31.6 @ Red Star Merl 4 813 54.14% FC Schifflange 95 0 719 29.03% 16.83%
22 1973-12-30 31.8 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 1032 64.33% Union Luxembourg 0 844 18.99% 16.69%
23 1973-11-17 31.9 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 792 63.91% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 609 19.39% 16.70%
24 1974-04-20 31.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1173 72.50% Union Luxembourg 0 877 11.09% 16.41%
25 1973-12-08 32.2 Spora Luxembourg 5 970 51.17% @ Fola Esch 0 900 31.98% 16.85%