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1974-75 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Avenir Beggen

7.62 points above expected

31 points · 23.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Spora Luxembourg

6.03 points below expected

14 points · 20.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 15 3 4 33 63 23 +40 29.48 +3.52
2 Avenir Beggen 22 14 3 5 31 44 29 +15 23.38 +7.62
3 Union Luxembourg 22 10 7 5 27 40 25 +15 21.69 +5.31
4 Differdange 03 22 9 6 7 24 37 34 +3 25.14 -1.14
5 Rumelange 22 7 8 7 22 32 31 +1 19.58 +2.42
6 Alliance Dudelange 22 6 9 7 21 37 36 +1 23.13 -2.13
7 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 8 5 9 21 34 34 0 20.30 +0.70
8 Progres Niedercorn 22 8 4 10 20 34 44 -10 22.19 -2.19
9 Aris Bonnevoie 22 6 7 9 19 39 45 -6 23.60 -4.60
10 Fola Esch 22 8 2 12 18 40 55 -15 18.39 -0.39
11 Spora Luxembourg 22 4 6 12 14 23 45 -22 20.03 -6.03
12 Red Star Merl 22 4 6 12 14 20 42 -22 17.09 -3.09

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 31 23.38 +7.62
2 Union Luxembourg 27 21.69 +5.31
3 Jeunesse Esch 33 29.48 +3.52
4 Rumelange 22 19.58 +2.42
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 21 20.30 +0.70

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spora Luxembourg 14 20.03 -6.03
2 Aris Bonnevoie 19 23.60 -4.60
3 Red Star Merl 14 17.09 -3.09
4 Progres Niedercorn 20 22.19 -2.19
5 Alliance Dudelange 21 23.13 -2.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 6 Jan 19 – Mar 8 1 in 37
2 Rumelange 3 Sep 15 – Sep 29 1 in 32
3 Progres Niedercorn 3 Jan 4 – Jan 19 1 in 28
4 Union Luxembourg 3 Nov 2 – Nov 16 1 in 26
5 Aris Bonnevoie 3 Sep 14 – Sep 29 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fola Esch 6 Sep 15 – Oct 27 1 in 166
2 Spora Luxembourg 4 Sep 1 – Sep 22 1 in 124
3 Differdange 03 3 Dec 21 – Jan 4 1 in 72
4 Alliance Dudelange 3 Jan 11 – Jan 26 1 in 44
5 Jeunesse Esch 2 Jan 4 – Jan 11 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union Luxembourg 9 Oct 6 – Jan 19 1 in 116
2 Rumelange 7 Sep 7 – Oct 27 1 in 64
3 Alliance Dudelange 6 Feb 2 – Apr 12 1 in 20
4 Fola Esch 3 Dec 21 – Jan 11 1 in 8
5 Progres Niedercorn 4 Jan 4 – Jan 25 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Red Star Merl 16 Sep 15 – Mar 1 1 in 139
2 Aris Bonnevoie 8 Jan 25 – Apr 19 1 in 56
3 Alliance Dudelange 7 Sep 29 – Dec 21 1 in 33
4 Fola Esch 9 Sep 15 – Dec 21 1 in 22
5 Differdange 03 5 Sep 7 – Oct 6 1 in 21

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1028 33 +19 7 7.5 -0.5
Avenir Beggen 885 31 -8 8 5.9 +2.1
Union Luxembourg 929 27 +68 9 5.6 +3.4
Differdange 03 893 24 +7 6 5.8 +0.2
Rumelange 783 22 -47 2 4.0 -2.0
Alliance Dudelange 856 21 +16 6 5.2 +0.8
Etzella Ettelbruck 800 21 +4 4 4.8 -0.8
Progres Niedercorn 832 20 +5 6 4.7 +1.3
Aris Bonnevoie 808 19 -71 1 5.3 -4.3
Fola Esch 771 18 -3 4 4.4 -0.4
Red Star Merl 716 14 +36 4 3.1 +0.9
Spora Luxembourg 754 14 -27 3 3.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB AB D0 EE FE JE PN RSM RUM SL UL
Alliance Dudelange —
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
3.35
0-2-0
1.74
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
3.65
1-1-0
2.90
0-2-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.73
Aris Bonnevoie
1-1-0
3.05
 —
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
3.29
0-1-1
3.61
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.55
0-2-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-2
3.08
Avenir Beggen
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
2.76
 —
1-0-1
2.82
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.89
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
2.64
1-1-0
2.95
Differdange 03
1-1-0
2.83
1-1-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.65
 —
0-1-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.58
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.39
0-1-1
3.66
1-1-0
2.99
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-0-1
2.32
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
2.34
1-1-0
2.19
 —
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
1.73
1-0-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.12
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.76
Fola Esch
1-0-1
2.13
1-1-0
1.88
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-1
2.56
 —
0-0-2
1.52
0-0-2
2.27
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.54
2-0-0
2.22
1-0-1
2.50
Jeunesse Esch
0-2-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.69
2-0-0
3.29
1-0-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.97
 —
1-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
4.37
1-1-0
3.91
2-0-0
4.02
1-0-1
3.87
Progres Niedercorn
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
1.44
 —
1-1-0
3.53
0-0-2
3.02
0-2-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.63
Red Star Merl
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
1.61
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-2
1.16
0-1-1
1.95
 —
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-2
2.37
1-1-0
2.33
Rumelange
0-1-1
2.57
0-2-0
2.01
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.71
0-0-2
2.94
0-1-1
1.58
2-0-0
2.46
2-0-0
2.96
 —
2-0-0
2.63
0-2-0
2.52
Spora Luxembourg
0-2-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
1.82
1-1-0
2.40
0-0-2
3.26
0-0-2
1.49
0-2-0
2.48
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
2.84
 —
0-0-2
2.31
Union Luxembourg
1-1-0
2.74
2-0-0
2.39
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
1.62
2-0-0
2.84
0-1-1
3.15
0-2-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.16
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +4.7
Allowed 0.66 -5.1
Differential 0.92 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%4.17%6.44%2.27%2.27%1.89%23.86%
14.17%9.09%6.44%3.41%1.89%1.52%26.52%
26.44%6.44%8.33%3.79%1.14%1.52%27.65%
32.27%3.41%3.79%0.76%0.38%0.38%10.98%
42.27%1.89%1.14%0.38%——5.68%
5+1.89%1.52%1.52%0.38%——5.30%
Total23.86%26.52%27.65%10.98%5.68%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.68 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.26
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
1—22.73%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
24.55%9.09%13.64%—4.55%—31.82%
34.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%45.45%27.27%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.64 +0.05
SD 1.13 1.53 1.73
CV 0.67 0.93 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%——4.55%9.09%
19.09%13.64%9.09%—4.55%4.55%40.91%
2——18.18%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
34.55%———4.55%—9.09%
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%18.18%31.82%4.55%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 2.05 -0.27
SD 1.19 1.79 2.43
CV 0.67 0.87 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
34.55%18.18%9.09%———31.82%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.32 +0.68
SD 1.38 1.09 1.84
CV 0.69 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
29.09%——4.55%——13.64%
3——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total31.82%18.18%31.82%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.55 +0.14
SD 1.55 1.63 2.19
CV 0.92 1.05 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%4.55%9.09%—31.82%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
29.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total27.27%22.73%27.27%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.87 1.30 2.54
CV 1.21 0.84 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
1——18.18%4.55%——22.73%
29.09%9.09%9.09%—4.55%9.09%40.91%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total9.09%13.64%40.91%18.18%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.50 -0.68
SD 1.56 1.74 2.44
CV 0.86 0.70 —
Max 7 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
19.09%——9.09%4.55%—22.73%
29.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+9.09%13.64%4.55%———27.27%
Total45.45%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.05 +1.82
SD 2.17 1.21 2.75
CV 0.76 1.16 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
1——4.55%—9.09%9.09%22.73%
2—13.64%13.64%———27.27%
3——13.64%———13.64%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total4.55%36.36%40.91%—9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.00 -0.45
SD 1.30 1.35 1.87
CV 0.84 0.67 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%50.00%
1—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
24.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%——27.27%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%22.73%18.18%22.73%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.91 -1.00
SD 1.11 1.57 2.16
CV 1.22 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%13.64%——4.55%36.36%
14.55%13.64%————18.18%
29.09%—9.09%9.09%——27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%27.27%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.41 +0.05
SD 1.50 1.59 2.34
CV 1.03 1.13 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%—31.82%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—31.82%
29.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%22.73%22.73%13.64%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.05 -1.00
SD 0.84 1.53 1.80
CV 0.81 0.75 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
1—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
29.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total36.36%27.27%22.73%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.14 +0.68
SD 1.30 1.08 1.67
CV 0.71 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1028 33 29.48 +3.52 87.0% 20 23 27 30 32 35 38
Union Luxembourg 929 27 21.69 +5.31 93.0% 13 15 19 21 24 28 33
Differdange 03 893 24 25.14 -1.14 42.0% 15 19 22 25 28 32 34
Avenir Beggen 885 31 23.38 +7.62 94.0% 14 16 20 23 26 32 36
Alliance Dudelange 856 21 23.13 -2.13 39.0% 13 16 20 23 26 30 33
Progres Niedercorn 832 20 22.19 -2.19 35.0% 15 16 19 22 24 30 34
Aris Bonnevoie 808 19 23.60 -4.60 16.0% 13 16 21 24 27 30 32
Etzella Ettelbruck 800 21 20.30 +0.70 58.0% 12 14 18 21 23 25 28
Rumelange 783 22 19.58 +2.42 79.0% 11 13 17 20 22 27 30
Fola Esch 771 18 18.39 -0.39 49.0% 10 12 16 19 20 24 27
Spora Luxembourg 754 14 20.03 -6.03 6.0% 12 13 17 20 23 26 29
Red Star Merl 716 14 17.09 -3.09 29.0% 6 10 14 17 20 25 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.85%
Slight Edge
42.42%25.00%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.33 Elo pts.
162 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.17 * Some Luck: 3.17 to 4.76 * Lucky: 4.76 to 6.34 * Wild Swing: 6.34 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.89 * Close: 1.89 to 2.83 * Off: 2.83 to 3.78 * Way Off: 3.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.90 points
Some Luck
03.9610
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.365
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.00%
Avenir Beggen
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.00%
Spora Luxembourg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 85.99
1.47
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Occasional
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.14
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch54.00%26.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%—1.00%—1.00%——
Avenir Beggen9.00%14.00%12.00%13.00%15.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%
Union Luxembourg3.00%7.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%9.00%7.00%11.00%10.00%8.00%5.00%5.00%
Differdange 0314.00%17.00%18.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%
Rumelange1.00%3.00%3.00%9.00%3.00%8.00%8.00%18.00%6.00%13.00%15.00%13.00%
Alliance Dudelange5.00%11.00%18.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%8.00%11.00%8.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck—2.00%4.00%6.00%13.00%15.00%13.00%8.00%14.00%8.00%9.00%8.00%
Progres Niedercorn6.00%6.00%5.00%11.00%7.00%13.00%13.00%10.00%10.00%6.00%10.00%3.00%
Aris Bonnevoie7.00%10.00%13.00%11.00%14.00%11.00%15.00%—7.00%4.00%5.00%3.00%
Fola Esch——2.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%7.00%19.00%16.00%16.00%19.00%
Spora Luxembourg1.00%3.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%6.00%10.00%16.00%7.00%18.00%12.00%10.00%
Red Star Merl—1.00%1.00%7.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%10.00%20.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Differdange 03 98.00% 2.00%
Avenir Beggen 94.00% 6.00%
Alliance Dudelange 93.00% 7.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 92.00% 8.00%
Union Luxembourg 90.00% 10.00%
Progres Niedercorn 87.00% 13.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 83.00% 17.00%
Spora Luxembourg 78.00% 22.00%
Rumelange 72.00% 28.00%
Fola Esch 65.00% 35.00%
Red Star Merl 48.00% 52.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1974-08-30 Red Star Merl L 1-250.8 858 788 52.27% 26.04% 21.69%+0.64 -11.3 0
1974-08-30 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-150.8 788 858 21.69% 26.04% 52.27%-0.64 +11.3 2
1974-08-31 Union Luxembourg W 1-035.5 921 800 57.51% 25.48% 17.01%+0.95 +4.8 2
1974-08-31 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-135.5 800 921 17.01% 25.48% 57.51%-0.95 -4.8 0
1974-09-01 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-250.9 869 794 52.86% 25.99% 21.15%+0.67 -11.4 0
1974-09-01 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-150.9 794 869 21.15% 25.99% 52.86%-0.67 +11.4 2
1974-09-01 Differdange 03 L 0-143.4 877 889 42.26% 26.49% 31.26%+0.14 -10.0 0
1974-09-01 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-043.4 889 877 31.26% 26.49% 42.26%-0.14 +10.0 2
1974-09-01 Fola Esch L 2-350.6 749 813 34.92% 26.47% 38.61%-0.19 -7.7 0
1974-09-01 @ Rumelange W 3-250.6 813 749 38.61% 26.47% 34.92%+0.19 +7.7 2
1974-09-01 Avenir Beggen L 2-355.8 884 811 52.74% 26.00% 21.26%+0.67 -10.8 0
1974-09-01 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-255.8 811 884 21.26% 26.00% 52.74%-0.67 +10.8 2
1974-09-07 Rumelange D 1-151.4 847 741 56.02% 25.67% 18.31%+0.86 -2.0 1
1974-09-07 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-151.4 741 847 18.31% 25.67% 56.02%-0.86 +2.0 1
1974-09-07 Progres Niedercorn W 1-041.5 821 867 37.58% 26.50% 35.92%-0.07 +8.8 4
1974-09-07 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-141.5 867 821 35.92% 26.50% 37.58%+0.07 -8.8 0
1974-09-07 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.2 899 857 49.06% 26.26% 24.68%+0.47 -1.2 3
1974-09-07 @ Differdange 03 D 1-151.2 857 899 24.68% 26.26% 49.06%-0.47 +1.2 1
1974-09-07 Jeunesse Esch L 0-236.1 805 926 27.59% 26.18% 46.23%-0.53 -13.5 2
1974-09-07 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-036.1 926 805 46.23% 26.18% 27.59%+0.53 +13.6 4
1974-09-07 Spora Luxembourg W 2-146.3 821 874 36.59% 26.49% 36.91%-0.11 +8.5 4
1974-09-07 @ Fola Esch L 1-246.3 874 821 36.91% 26.49% 36.59%+0.11 -8.5 0
1974-09-07 Union Luxembourg W 2-036.7 800 795 44.39% 26.44% 29.17%+0.24 +14.2 4
1974-09-07 @ Red Star Merl L 0-236.7 795 800 29.17% 26.44% 44.39%-0.24 -14.2 0
1974-09-14 Differdange 03 W 7-135.3 939 898 49.06% 26.26% 24.69%+0.47 +28.5 6
1974-09-14 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-735.3 898 939 24.69% 26.26% 49.06%-0.47 -28.5 3
1974-09-14 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-438.8 865 845 46.49% 26.38% 27.14%+0.34 -38.6 0
1974-09-14 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-038.8 845 865 27.14% 26.38% 46.49%-0.34 +38.6 3
1974-09-15 Avenir Beggen W 3-033.7 859 830 47.45% 26.34% 26.22%+0.39 +19.0 3
1974-09-15 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-333.7 830 859 26.22% 26.34% 47.45%-0.39 -19.0 4
1974-09-15 Fola Esch W 4-245.0 858 830 47.50% 26.33% 26.17%+0.39 +10.1 2
1974-09-15 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-445.0 830 858 26.17% 26.33% 47.50%-0.39 -10.1 4
1974-09-15 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.1 781 792 42.47% 26.48% 31.05%+0.15 -0.5 1
1974-09-15 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-151.1 792 781 31.05% 26.48% 42.47%-0.15 +0.5 3
1974-09-15 Red Star Merl W 5-036.8 743 814 34.07% 26.45% 39.48%-0.22 +41.6 3
1974-09-15 @ Rumelange L 0-536.8 814 743 39.48% 26.45% 34.07%+0.22 -41.6 4
1974-09-21 Progres Niedercorn W 4-139.1 883 868 45.76% 26.40% 27.84%+0.30 +16.8 5
1974-09-21 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-439.1 868 883 27.84% 26.40% 45.76%-0.30 -16.8 2
1974-09-22 Jeunesse Esch W 3-147.9 811 968 23.50% 25.86% 50.64%-0.75 +18.9 6
1974-09-22 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-347.9 968 811 50.64% 25.86% 23.50%+0.75 -18.9 6
1974-09-22 Union Luxembourg D 3-360.6 869 781 54.31% 25.86% 19.84%+0.76 -1.1 4
1974-09-22 @ Differdange 03 D 3-360.6 781 869 19.84% 25.86% 54.31%-0.76 +1.1 2
1974-09-22 Alliance Dudelange L 1-246.0 819 878 35.82% 26.48% 37.69%-0.15 -8.3 4
1974-09-22 @ Fola Esch W 2-146.0 878 819 37.69% 26.48% 35.82%+0.15 +8.3 5
1974-09-22 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.1 772 792 41.17% 26.50% 32.33%+0.09 -0.4 5
1974-09-22 @ Red Star Merl D 1-151.1 792 772 32.33% 26.50% 41.17%-0.09 +0.4 4
1974-09-22 Spora Luxembourg W 4-141.4 785 827 38.12% 26.51% 35.37%-0.05 +20.1 5
1974-09-22 @ Rumelange L 1-441.4 827 785 35.37% 26.51% 38.12%+0.05 -20.1 0
1974-09-28 Avenir Beggen L 1-344.1 782 830 37.19% 26.50% 36.31%-0.09 -14.7 2
1974-09-28 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-144.1 830 782 36.31% 26.50% 37.19%+0.09 +14.7 8
1974-09-29 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-143.3 886 900 41.95% 26.49% 31.56%+0.12 -9.9 5
1974-09-29 @ Alliance Dudelange W 1-043.3 900 886 31.56% 26.49% 41.95%-0.12 +9.9 7
1974-09-29 Differdange 03 W 2-040.0 793 868 33.39% 26.43% 40.18%-0.25 +18.0 6
1974-09-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-240.0 868 793 40.18% 26.43% 33.39%+0.25 -18.0 4
1974-09-29 Fola Esch W 6-235.9 949 811 59.09% 25.25% 15.66%+1.06 +11.4 8
1974-09-29 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-635.9 811 949 15.66% 25.25% 59.09%-1.06 -11.4 4
1974-09-29 Rumelange L 0-145.5 852 805 49.67% 26.22% 24.11%+0.50 -11.4 2
1974-09-29 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-045.5 805 852 24.11% 26.22% 49.67%-0.50 +11.4 7
1974-09-29 Red Star Merl W 2-035.5 807 772 48.25% 26.30% 25.45%+0.43 +12.8 2
1974-09-29 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-235.5 772 807 25.45% 26.30% 48.25%-0.43 -12.8 5
1974-10-05 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-033.5 845 811 48.18% 26.30% 25.51%+0.42 +18.6 10
1974-10-05 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-333.5 811 845 25.51% 26.30% 48.18%-0.42 -18.6 6
1974-10-06 Jeunesse Esch L 1-246.3 910 960 36.90% 26.50% 36.61%-0.10 -8.5 7
1974-10-06 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-146.3 960 910 36.61% 26.50% 36.90%+0.10 +8.5 10
1974-10-06 Red Star Merl D 0-047.7 850 759 54.57% 25.83% 19.60%+0.77 -2.0 5
1974-10-06 @ Differdange 03 D 0-047.7 759 850 19.60% 25.83% 54.57%-0.77 +2.0 6
1974-10-06 Union Luxembourg L 0-340.2 800 767 48.00% 26.31% 25.69%+0.41 -30.3 4
1974-10-06 @ Fola Esch W 3-040.2 767 800 25.69% 26.31% 48.00%-0.41 +30.3 4
1974-10-06 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.1 816 876 35.61% 26.48% 37.91%-0.16 +0.1 8
1974-10-06 @ Rumelange D 1-151.1 876 816 37.91% 26.48% 35.61%+0.16 -0.1 6
1974-10-06 Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.1 819 840 41.04% 26.50% 32.46%+0.08 -0.3 3
1974-10-06 @ Spora Luxembourg D 2-256.1 840 819 32.46% 26.50% 41.04%-0.08 +0.3 3
1974-10-19 Avenir Beggen W 1-040.2 848 863 41.79% 26.49% 31.72%+0.12 +8.0 7
1974-10-19 @ Differdange 03 L 0-140.2 863 848 31.72% 26.49% 41.79%-0.12 -8.0 10
1974-10-20 Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.2 876 819 50.82% 26.15% 23.03%+0.56 -1.4 7
1974-10-20 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.2 819 876 23.03% 26.15% 50.82%-0.56 +1.4 4
1974-10-20 Fola Esch W 7-034.2 792 769 46.73% 26.37% 26.90%+0.35 +42.9 8
1974-10-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-734.2 769 792 26.90% 26.37% 46.73%-0.35 -42.9 4
1974-10-20 Rumelange D 0-047.9 969 816 60.38% 25.03% 14.59%+1.15 -2.7 11
1974-10-20 @ Jeunesse Esch D 0-047.9 816 969 14.59% 25.03% 60.38%-1.15 +2.7 9
1974-10-20 Progres Niedercorn D 0-047.5 761 841 32.85% 26.42% 40.73%-0.28 +0.4 7
1974-10-20 @ Red Star Merl D 0-047.5 841 761 40.73% 26.42% 32.85%+0.28 -0.4 4
1974-10-26 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-031.4 901 835 51.94% 26.07% 22.00%+0.62 +21.5 9
1974-10-26 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-431.4 835 901 22.00% 26.07% 51.94%-0.62 -21.5 8
1974-10-26 Red Star Merl W 3-138.5 855 761 54.88% 25.80% 19.32%+0.79 +8.8 12
1974-10-26 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-338.5 761 855 19.32% 25.80% 54.88%-0.79 -8.8 7
1974-10-27 Differdange 03 L 2-541.9 727 856 26.54% 26.11% 47.34%-0.59 -13.9 4
1974-10-27 @ Fola Esch W 5-241.9 856 727 47.34% 26.11% 26.54%+0.59 +13.9 9
1974-10-27 Alliance Dudelange W 2-145.5 840 874 39.19% 26.51% 34.30%+0.00 +8.0 6
1974-10-27 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-245.5 874 840 34.30% 26.51% 39.19%+0.00 -8.0 7
1974-10-27 Union Luxembourg D 2-256.1 819 797 46.64% 26.37% 26.99%+0.35 -0.7 10
1974-10-27 @ Rumelange D 2-256.1 797 819 26.99% 26.37% 46.64%-0.35 +0.7 5
1974-10-27 Jeunesse Esch L 0-333.1 820 966 24.70% 25.97% 49.33%-0.69 -18.0 4
1974-10-27 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-033.1 966 820 49.33% 25.97% 24.70%+0.69 +18.0 13
1974-11-02 Aris Bonnevoie W 5-036.1 870 923 36.55% 26.49% 36.96%-0.11 +39.6 11
1974-11-02 @ Differdange 03 L 0-536.1 923 870 36.96% 26.49% 36.55%+0.11 -39.6 9
1974-11-02 Rumelange W 2-037.0 813 818 43.17% 26.47% 30.36%+0.18 +14.6 10
1974-11-02 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-237.0 818 813 30.36% 26.47% 43.17%-0.18 -14.6 10
1974-11-02 Progres Niedercorn W 5-133.6 984 848 58.93% 25.27% 15.80%+1.05 +13.5 15
1974-11-02 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-533.6 848 984 15.80% 25.27% 58.93%-1.05 -13.5 6
1974-11-02 Spora Luxembourg W 2-144.3 798 802 43.26% 26.47% 30.27%+0.18 +7.3 7
1974-11-02 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-244.3 802 798 30.27% 26.47% 43.26%-0.18 -7.3 4
1974-11-02 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.2 753 866 28.43% 26.23% 45.34%-0.49 +0.8 8
1974-11-02 @ Red Star Merl D 1-151.2 866 753 45.34% 26.23% 28.43%+0.49 -0.8 8
1974-11-09 Jeunesse Esch D 2-256.2 866 998 26.23% 26.09% 47.68%-0.60 +0.8 9
1974-11-09 @ Alliance Dudelange D 2-256.2 998 866 47.68% 26.09% 26.23%+0.60 -0.8 16
1974-11-09 Avenir Beggen D 2-256.1 883 864 46.30% 26.38% 27.32%+0.33 -0.7 10
1974-11-09 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 2-256.1 864 883 27.32% 26.38% 46.30%-0.33 +0.7 13
1974-11-09 Red Star Merl D 2-256.1 713 753 38.28% 26.51% 35.21%-0.04 -0.1 5
1974-11-09 @ Fola Esch D 2-256.1 753 713 35.21% 26.51% 38.28%+0.04 +0.1 9
1974-11-09 Union Luxembourg L 1-249.4 835 805 47.56% 26.33% 26.11%+0.39 -10.4 6
1974-11-09 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-149.4 805 835 26.11% 26.33% 47.56%-0.39 +10.4 9
1974-11-09 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-145.4 795 828 39.40% 26.51% 34.10%+0.01 +8.0 6
1974-11-09 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-245.4 828 795 34.10% 26.51% 39.40%-0.01 -8.0 10
1974-11-16 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-251.8 816 883 34.57% 26.46% 38.96%-0.20 +8.4 11
1974-11-16 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-351.8 883 816 38.96% 26.46% 34.57%+0.20 -8.4 10
1974-11-17 Fola Esch W 3-136.9 865 713 60.38% 25.03% 14.59%+1.15 +6.9 15
1974-11-17 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-336.9 713 865 14.59% 25.03% 60.38%-1.15 -6.9 5
1974-12-21 Rumelange D 1-151.3 872 804 52.10% 26.05% 21.85%+0.63 -1.5 16
1974-12-21 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.3 804 872 21.85% 26.05% 52.10%-0.63 +1.5 11
1974-12-21 Spora Luxembourg L 0-244.5 910 803 56.14% 25.65% 18.21%+0.87 -24.0 11
1974-12-21 @ Differdange 03 W 2-044.5 803 910 18.21% 25.65% 56.14%-0.87 +24.1 8
1974-12-21 Progres Niedercorn W 1-039.8 820 824 43.28% 26.47% 30.25%+0.18 +7.7 12
1974-12-21 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-139.8 824 820 30.25% 26.47% 43.28%-0.18 -7.7 6
1974-12-21 Aris Bonnevoie D 2-256.3 706 874 22.25% 25.73% 52.02%-0.83 +1.1 6
1974-12-21 @ Fola Esch D 2-256.3 874 706 52.02% 25.73% 22.25%+0.83 -1.1 11
1974-12-21 Alliance Dudelange D 2-256.1 824 866 38.07% 26.51% 35.43%-0.05 -0.1 12
1974-12-21 @ Union Luxembourg D 2-256.1 866 824 35.43% 26.51% 38.07%+0.05 +0.1 10
1974-12-21 Jeunesse Esch L 0-529.1 754 997 15.66% 24.68% 59.66%-1.29 -19.6 9
1974-12-21 @ Red Star Merl W 5-029.1 997 754 59.66% 24.68% 15.66%+1.29 +19.6 18
1974-12-24 Differdange 03 W 3-145.1 805 886 32.75% 26.42% 40.83%-0.28 +15.8 13
1974-12-24 @ Rumelange L 1-345.1 886 805 40.83% 26.42% 32.75%+0.28 -15.8 11
1975-01-04 Spora Luxembourg W 5-241.4 870 827 49.24% 26.25% 24.51%+0.48 +13.1 18
1975-01-04 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-541.4 827 870 24.51% 26.25% 49.24%-0.48 -13.1 8
1975-01-04 Progres Niedercorn L 1-250.2 870 817 50.43% 26.17% 23.40%+0.54 -10.9 11
1975-01-04 @ Differdange 03 W 2-150.2 817 870 23.40% 26.17% 50.43%-0.54 +10.9 8
1975-01-04 Alliance Dudelange L 1-246.8 828 866 38.57% 26.51% 34.92%-0.03 -8.7 12
1975-01-04 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-146.8 866 828 34.92% 26.51% 38.57%+0.03 +8.7 12
1975-01-04 Rumelange W 2-041.5 707 821 28.35% 26.23% 45.42%-0.49 +19.9 8
1975-01-04 @ Fola Esch L 0-241.5 821 707 45.42% 26.23% 28.35%+0.49 -19.9 13
1975-01-04 Jeunesse Esch W 2-044.0 824 1017 19.92% 25.44% 54.65%-0.97 +23.4 14
1975-01-04 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-244.0 1017 824 54.65% 25.44% 19.92%+0.97 -23.4 18
1975-01-04 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-333.3 734 873 25.41% 26.03% 48.56%-0.65 -18.4 9
1975-01-04 @ Red Star Merl W 3-033.3 873 734 48.56% 26.03% 25.41%+0.65 +18.4 13
1975-01-11 Differdange 03 L 2-450.9 875 859 45.95% 26.40% 27.66%+0.31 -15.6 12
1975-01-11 @ Alliance Dudelange W 4-250.9 859 875 27.66% 26.40% 45.95%-0.31 +15.6 13
1975-01-11 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-351.0 993 819 62.20% 24.68% 13.12%+1.28 -23.0 18
1975-01-11 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-151.0 819 993 13.12% 24.68% 62.20%-1.28 +22.9 14
1975-01-11 Avenir Beggen W 3-251.3 827 883 36.10% 26.49% 37.41%-0.13 +8.1 10
1975-01-11 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-351.3 883 827 37.41% 26.49% 36.10%+0.13 -8.1 18
1975-01-11 Red Star Merl D 0-047.9 847 715 58.56% 25.33% 16.11%+1.02 -2.5 15
1975-01-11 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-047.9 715 847 16.11% 25.33% 58.56%-1.02 +2.5 10
1975-01-11 Aris Bonnevoie D 2-256.1 801 892 31.41% 26.37% 42.22%-0.34 +0.4 14
1975-01-11 @ Rumelange D 2-256.1 892 801 42.22% 26.37% 31.41%+0.34 -0.4 14
1975-01-11 Fola Esch L 0-244.0 814 727 54.19% 25.87% 19.95%+0.75 -23.3 8
1975-01-11 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-044.0 727 814 19.95% 25.87% 54.19%-0.75 +23.3 10
1975-01-18 Spora Luxembourg W 1-036.1 891 791 55.53% 25.72% 18.74%+0.83 +5.3 16
1975-01-18 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-136.1 791 891 18.74% 25.72% 55.53%-0.83 -5.3 8
1975-01-19 Alliance Dudelange W 2-143.5 875 860 45.88% 26.40% 27.72%+0.31 +6.8 20
1975-01-19 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-243.5 860 875 27.72% 26.40% 45.88%-0.31 -6.8 12
1975-01-19 Jeunesse Esch L 0-139.9 874 970 30.71% 26.34% 42.95%-0.38 -7.8 13
1975-01-19 @ Differdange 03 W 1-039.9 970 874 42.95% 26.34% 30.71%+0.38 +7.8 20
1975-01-19 Union Luxembourg L 0-438.0 842 845 43.46% 26.46% 30.08%+0.19 -36.4 14
1975-01-19 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-038.0 845 842 30.08% 26.46% 43.46%-0.19 +36.4 17
1975-01-19 Progres Niedercorn L 1-244.8 750 836 32.04% 26.39% 41.57%-0.32 -7.6 10
1975-01-19 @ Fola Esch W 2-144.8 836 750 41.57% 26.39% 32.04%+0.32 +7.6 12
1975-01-25 Aris Bonnevoie D 2-256.1 843 897 36.48% 26.49% 37.02%-0.12 +0.0 13
1975-01-25 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.1 897 843 37.02% 26.49% 36.48%+0.12 -0.0 17
1975-01-25 Differdange 03 L 2-353.8 881 867 45.74% 26.40% 27.86%+0.30 -9.5 17
1975-01-25 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-253.8 867 881 27.86% 26.40% 45.74%-0.30 +9.5 15
1975-01-26 Fola Esch L 3-749.3 853 742 56.52% 25.61% 17.87%+0.89 -29.6 12
1975-01-26 @ Alliance Dudelange W 7-349.3 742 853 17.87% 25.61% 56.52%-0.89 +29.6 12
1975-01-26 Red Star Merl W 3-245.9 805 718 54.20% 25.87% 19.93%+0.75 +5.0 16
1975-01-26 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-345.9 718 805 19.93% 25.87% 54.20%-0.75 -5.0 10
1975-01-26 Avenir Beggen W 2-140.8 978 882 55.06% 25.78% 19.16%+0.80 +5.1 22
1975-01-26 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.8 882 978 19.16% 25.78% 55.06%-0.80 -5.1 20
1975-01-26 Rumelange L 2-449.7 786 802 41.69% 26.49% 31.82%+0.11 -14.4 8
1975-01-26 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-249.7 802 786 31.82% 26.49% 41.69%-0.11 +14.4 16
1975-02-01 Union Luxembourg D 0-047.5 877 872 44.54% 26.44% 29.02%+0.24 -0.8 21
1975-02-01 @ Avenir Beggen D 0-047.5 872 877 29.02% 26.44% 44.54%-0.24 +0.8 18
1975-02-02 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.3 896 823 52.69% 26.00% 21.31%+0.66 -1.6 18
1975-02-02 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-151.3 823 896 21.31% 26.00% 52.69%-0.66 +1.6 13
1975-02-02 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-047.6 876 810 51.84% 26.07% 22.08%+0.62 -1.7 16
1975-02-02 @ Differdange 03 D 0-047.6 810 876 22.08% 26.07% 51.84%-0.62 +1.7 17
1975-02-02 Jeunesse Esch L 0-233.0 772 983 18.26% 25.18% 56.56%-1.09 -9.6 12
1975-02-02 @ Fola Esch W 2-033.0 983 772 56.56% 25.18% 18.26%+1.09 +9.6 24
1975-02-02 Spora Luxembourg L 0-141.5 713 771 35.81% 26.48% 37.71%-0.15 -8.8 10
1975-02-02 @ Red Star Merl W 1-041.5 771 713 37.71% 26.48% 35.81%+0.15 +8.8 10
1975-02-02 Progres Niedercorn W 2-037.9 816 843 40.19% 26.51% 33.31%+0.04 +15.7 18
1975-02-02 @ Rumelange L 0-237.9 843 816 33.31% 26.51% 40.19%-0.04 -15.7 13
1975-02-08 Rumelange L 0-235.9 704 832 26.77% 26.13% 47.10%-0.57 -13.2 10
1975-02-08 @ Red Star Merl W 2-035.9 832 704 47.10% 26.13% 26.77%+0.57 +13.2 20
1975-02-15 Rumelange W 2-037.7 825 845 41.13% 26.50% 32.38%+0.09 +15.4 15
1975-02-15 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-237.7 845 825 32.38% 26.50% 41.13%-0.09 -15.4 20
1975-02-15 Aris Bonnevoie W 5-134.7 993 895 55.26% 25.76% 18.98%+0.81 +15.9 26
1975-02-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-534.7 895 993 18.98% 25.76% 55.26%-0.81 -15.9 18
1975-02-15 Spora Luxembourg D 2-256.2 827 780 49.76% 26.22% 24.02%+0.50 -1.0 14
1975-02-15 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.2 780 827 24.02% 26.22% 49.76%-0.50 +1.0 11
1975-02-15 Differdange 03 L 0-233.9 691 874 20.77% 25.55% 53.68%-0.92 -10.8 10
1975-02-15 @ Red Star Merl W 2-033.9 874 691 53.68% 25.55% 20.77%+0.92 +10.8 18
1975-02-22 Avenir Beggen L 0-238.4 812 876 34.96% 26.47% 38.57%-0.18 -16.2 17
1975-02-22 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-038.4 876 812 38.57% 26.47% 34.96%+0.18 +16.3 23
1975-02-22 Fola Esch L 1-251.9 873 762 56.51% 25.61% 17.88%+0.89 -12.1 18
1975-02-22 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-151.9 762 873 17.88% 25.61% 56.51%-0.89 +12.1 14
1975-03-01 Union Luxembourg L 0-241.8 879 861 46.22% 26.39% 27.39%+0.33 -20.2 18
1975-03-01 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-041.8 861 879 27.39% 26.39% 46.22%-0.33 +20.2 20
1975-03-01 Red Star Merl W 3-244.2 827 680 59.85% 25.12% 15.03%+1.11 +3.9 16
1975-03-01 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-344.2 680 827 15.03% 25.12% 59.85%-1.11 -3.9 10
1975-03-02 Differdange 03 W 3-248.7 893 885 44.80% 26.43% 28.77%+0.26 +6.7 25
1975-03-02 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-348.7 885 893 28.77% 26.43% 44.80%-0.26 -6.7 18
1975-03-02 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-142.7 774 796 40.97% 26.50% 32.53%+0.08 +13.4 16
1975-03-02 @ Fola Esch L 1-342.7 796 774 32.53% 26.50% 40.97%-0.08 -13.4 17
1975-03-02 Jeunesse Esch L 0-732.3 830 1009 21.21% 25.61% 53.18%-0.89 -35.2 20
1975-03-02 @ Rumelange W 7-032.3 1009 830 53.18% 25.61% 21.21%+0.89 +35.2 28
1975-03-02 Alliance Dudelange D 0-047.5 781 840 35.66% 26.48% 37.86%-0.15 +0.1 12
1975-03-02 @ Spora Luxembourg D 0-047.5 840 781 37.86% 26.48% 35.66%+0.15 -0.1 16
1975-03-08 Progres Niedercorn W 5-137.7 840 830 45.08% 26.42% 28.49%+0.27 +22.0 18
1975-03-08 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-537.7 830 840 28.49% 26.42% 45.08%-0.27 -22.0 16
1975-03-08 Fola Esch W 2-033.6 879 788 54.54% 25.83% 19.63%+0.77 +10.3 20
1975-03-08 @ Differdange 03 L 0-233.6 788 879 19.63% 25.83% 54.54%-0.77 -10.3 16
1975-03-08 Aris Bonnevoie W 6-243.7 783 859 33.29% 26.43% 40.28%-0.26 +24.2 19
1975-03-08 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-643.7 859 783 40.28% 26.43% 33.29%+0.26 -24.2 18
1975-03-08 Spora Luxembourg W 4-026.4 1044 781 68.51% 22.98% 8.52%+1.83 +9.0 30
1975-03-08 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-426.4 781 1044 8.52% 22.98% 68.51%-1.83 -9.0 12
1975-03-08 Rumelange D 0-047.7 881 794 54.08% 25.88% 20.04%+0.74 -1.9 21
1975-03-08 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-047.7 794 881 20.04% 25.88% 54.08%-0.74 +1.9 21
1975-03-08 Avenir Beggen W 4-041.8 676 899 17.27% 25.00% 57.73%-1.16 +46.6 12
1975-03-08 @ Red Star Merl L 0-441.8 899 676 57.73% 25.00% 17.27%+1.16 -46.6 25
1975-03-22 Jeunesse Esch W 4-148.1 808 1053 15.59% 24.66% 59.75%-1.29 +31.1 18
1975-03-22 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-448.1 1053 808 59.75% 24.66% 15.59%+1.29 -31.1 30
1975-04-05 Red Star Merl W 3-137.2 862 723 59.20% 25.23% 15.57%+1.07 +7.3 20
1975-04-05 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-337.2 723 862 15.57% 25.23% 59.20%-1.07 -7.3 12
1975-04-05 Differdange 03 D 1-151.1 835 889 36.35% 26.49% 37.16%-0.12 +0.0 19
1975-04-05 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-151.1 889 835 37.16% 26.49% 36.35%+0.12 -0.0 21
1975-04-05 Avenir Beggen L 1-245.2 777 853 33.45% 26.43% 40.11%-0.25 -7.9 16
1975-04-05 @ Fola Esch W 2-145.2 853 777 40.11% 26.43% 33.45%+0.25 +7.9 27
1975-04-05 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-047.5 796 807 42.46% 26.48% 31.05%+0.15 -0.6 22
1975-04-05 @ Rumelange D 0-047.5 807 796 31.05% 26.48% 42.46%-0.15 +0.6 20
1975-04-05 Union Luxembourg L 0-334.6 772 879 29.29% 26.28% 44.43%-0.45 -20.6 12
1975-04-05 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-034.6 879 772 44.43% 26.28% 29.29%+0.45 +20.6 23
1975-04-12 Aris Bonnevoie W 4-138.7 860 835 47.14% 26.35% 26.51%+0.37 +16.1 29
1975-04-12 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-438.7 835 860 26.51% 26.35% 47.14%-0.37 -16.1 19
1975-04-12 Rumelange W 3-245.7 889 796 54.78% 25.81% 19.41%+0.78 +4.9 23
1975-04-12 @ Differdange 03 L 2-345.7 796 889 19.41% 25.81% 54.78%-0.78 -4.9 22
1975-04-12 Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.2 807 751 50.75% 26.15% 23.10%+0.56 -1.4 21
1975-04-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.2 751 807 23.10% 26.15% 50.75%-0.56 +1.4 13
1975-04-12 Alliance Dudelange D 2-256.5 1022 869 60.38% 25.03% 14.59%+1.15 -1.8 31
1975-04-12 @ Jeunesse Esch D 2-256.5 869 1022 14.59% 25.03% 60.38%-1.15 +1.8 21
1975-04-12 Progres Niedercorn W 4-137.4 899 839 51.20% 26.12% 22.68%+0.58 +14.2 25
1975-04-12 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-437.4 839 899 22.68% 26.12% 51.20%-0.58 -14.2 18
1975-04-12 Fola Esch W 2-146.3 716 770 36.40% 26.49% 37.11%-0.12 +8.5 14
1975-04-12 @ Red Star Merl L 1-246.3 770 716 37.11% 26.49% 36.40%+0.12 -8.5 16
1975-04-19 Union Luxembourg L 1-344.3 871 914 38.02% 26.50% 35.47%-0.05 -15.0 21
1975-04-19 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-144.3 914 871 35.47% 26.50% 38.02%+0.05 +15.0 27
1975-04-19 Fola Esch L 3-458.6 818 761 50.89% 26.14% 22.96%+0.56 -10.2 19
1975-04-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-358.6 761 818 22.96% 26.14% 50.89%-0.56 +10.2 18
1975-04-19 Red Star Merl W 4-025.8 1020 724 70.50% 22.24% 7.26%+2.03 +7.6 33
1975-04-19 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-425.8 724 1020 7.26% 22.24% 70.50%-2.03 -7.6 14
1975-04-19 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-248.3 825 806 46.32% 26.38% 27.30%+0.33 +6.4 20
1975-04-19 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-348.3 806 825 27.30% 26.38% 46.32%-0.33 -6.4 21
1975-04-19 Avenir Beggen L 0-140.3 791 877 32.03% 26.39% 41.58%-0.32 -8.1 22
1975-04-19 @ Rumelange W 1-040.3 877 791 41.58% 26.39% 32.03%+0.32 +8.1 31
1975-04-19 Differdange 03 D 1-151.3 753 894 25.22% 26.01% 48.77%-0.66 +1.2 14
1975-04-19 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.3 894 753 48.77% 26.01% 25.22%+0.66 -1.2 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1975-01-11 13.12% Etzella Ettelbruck 819 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 993 1
2 1975-03-22 15.59% @ Progres Niedercorn 808 4 Jeunesse Esch 1053 1
3 1975-03-08 17.27% @ Red Star Merl 676 4 Avenir Beggen 899 0
4 1975-01-26 17.87% Fola Esch 742 7 @ Alliance Dudelange 853 3
5 1975-02-22 17.88% Fola Esch 762 2 @ Union Luxembourg 873 1
6 1974-12-21 18.21% Spora Luxembourg 803 2 @ Differdange 03 910 0
7 1975-01-04 19.92% @ Union Luxembourg 824 2 Jeunesse Esch 1017 0
8 1975-01-11 19.95% Fola Esch 727 2 @ Spora Luxembourg 814 0
9 1974-09-01 21.15% Etzella Ettelbruck 794 2 @ Alliance Dudelange 869 1
10 1974-09-01 21.26% Avenir Beggen 811 3 @ Spora Luxembourg 884 2
11 1974-08-30 21.69% Red Star Merl 788 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 858 1
12 1975-04-19 22.96% Fola Esch 761 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 818 3
13 1975-01-04 23.40% Progres Niedercorn 817 2 @ Differdange 03 870 1
14 1974-09-22 23.50% @ Avenir Beggen 811 3 Jeunesse Esch 968 1
15 1974-09-29 24.11% Rumelange 805 1 @ Progres Niedercorn 852 0
16 1974-10-06 25.69% Union Luxembourg 767 3 @ Fola Esch 800 0
17 1974-11-09 26.11% Union Luxembourg 805 2 @ Progres Niedercorn 835 1
18 1974-09-14 27.14% Aris Bonnevoie 845 4 @ Spora Luxembourg 865 0
19 1975-03-01 27.39% Union Luxembourg 861 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 879 0
20 1975-01-11 27.66% Differdange 03 859 4 @ Alliance Dudelange 875 2
21 1975-01-25 27.86% Differdange 03 867 3 @ Union Luxembourg 881 2
22 1975-01-04 28.35% @ Fola Esch 707 2 Rumelange 821 0
23 1975-01-19 30.08% Union Luxembourg 845 4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 842 0
24 1974-09-01 31.26% Differdange 03 889 1 @ Progres Niedercorn 877 0
25 1974-09-29 31.56% Aris Bonnevoie 900 1 @ Alliance Dudelange 886 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-03-08 46.63 @ Red Star Merl 4 676 17.27% Avenir Beggen 0 899 57.73% 25.00%
2 1974-10-20 42.86 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 7 792 46.73% Fola Esch 0 769 26.90% 26.37%
3 1974-09-15 41.61 @ Rumelange 5 743 34.07% Red Star Merl 0 814 39.48% 26.45%
4 1974-11-02 39.62 @ Differdange 03 5 870 36.55% Aris Bonnevoie 0 923 36.96% 26.49%
5 1974-09-14 38.56 Aris Bonnevoie 4 845 27.14% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 865 46.49% 26.38%
6 1975-01-19 36.45 Union Luxembourg 4 845 30.08% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 842 43.46% 26.46%
7 1975-03-02 35.19 Jeunesse Esch 7 1009 53.18% @ Rumelange 0 830 21.21% 25.61%
8 1975-03-22 31.08 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 808 15.59% Jeunesse Esch 1 1053 59.75% 24.66%
9 1974-10-06 30.33 Union Luxembourg 3 767 25.69% @ Fola Esch 0 800 48.00% 26.31%
10 1975-01-26 29.65 Fola Esch 7 742 17.87% @ Alliance Dudelange 3 853 56.52% 25.61%
11 1974-09-14 28.54 @ Jeunesse Esch 7 939 49.06% Differdange 03 1 898 24.69% 26.26%
12 1975-03-08 24.25 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 6 783 33.29% Aris Bonnevoie 2 859 40.28% 26.43%
13 1974-12-21 24.05 Spora Luxembourg 2 803 18.21% @ Differdange 03 0 910 56.14% 25.65%
14 1975-01-04 23.37 @ Union Luxembourg 2 824 19.92% Jeunesse Esch 0 1017 54.65% 25.44%
15 1975-01-11 23.28 Fola Esch 2 727 19.95% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 814 54.19% 25.87%
16 1975-01-11 22.96 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 819 13.12% @ Jeunesse Esch 1 993 62.20% 24.68%
17 1975-03-08 22.04 @ Alliance Dudelange 5 840 45.08% Progres Niedercorn 1 830 28.49% 26.42%
18 1974-10-26 21.53 @ Aris Bonnevoie 4 901 51.94% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 835 22.00% 26.07%
19 1975-04-05 20.63 Union Luxembourg 3 879 44.43% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 772 29.29% 26.28%
20 1975-03-01 20.23 Union Luxembourg 2 861 27.39% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 879 46.22% 26.39%
21 1974-09-22 20.09 @ Rumelange 4 785 38.12% Spora Luxembourg 1 827 35.37% 26.51%
22 1975-01-04 19.89 @ Fola Esch 2 707 28.35% Rumelange 0 821 45.42% 26.23%
23 1974-12-21 19.64 Jeunesse Esch 5 997 59.66% @ Red Star Merl 0 754 15.66% 24.68%
24 1974-09-15 18.97 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 859 47.45% Avenir Beggen 0 830 26.22% 26.34%
25 1974-09-22 18.90 @ Avenir Beggen 3 811 23.50% Jeunesse Esch 1 968 50.64% 25.86%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1974-09-22 60.6 @ Differdange 03 3 869 54.31% Union Luxembourg 3 781 19.84% 25.86%
2 1975-04-19 58.6 Fola Esch 4 761 22.96% @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 818 50.89% 26.14%
3 1975-04-12 56.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1022 60.38% Alliance Dudelange 2 869 14.59% 25.03%
4 1974-12-21 56.3 @ Fola Esch 2 706 22.25% Aris Bonnevoie 2 874 52.02% 25.73%
5 1974-11-09 56.2 @ Alliance Dudelange 2 866 26.23% Jeunesse Esch 2 998 47.68% 26.09%
6 1975-02-15 56.2 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 827 49.76% Spora Luxembourg 2 780 24.02% 26.22%
7 1974-10-06 56.1 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 819 41.04% Progres Niedercorn 2 840 32.46% 26.50%
8 1974-10-27 56.1 @ Rumelange 2 819 46.64% Union Luxembourg 2 797 26.99% 26.37%
9 1974-11-09 56.1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 883 46.30% Avenir Beggen 2 864 27.32% 26.38%
10 1974-11-09 56.1 @ Fola Esch 2 713 38.28% Red Star Merl 2 753 35.21% 26.51%
11 1974-12-21 56.1 @ Union Luxembourg 2 824 38.07% Alliance Dudelange 2 866 35.43% 26.51%
12 1975-01-11 56.1 @ Rumelange 2 801 31.41% Aris Bonnevoie 2 892 42.22% 26.37%
13 1975-01-25 56.1 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 843 36.48% Aris Bonnevoie 2 897 37.02% 26.49%
14 1974-09-01 55.8 Avenir Beggen 3 811 21.26% @ Spora Luxembourg 2 884 52.74% 26.00%
15 1975-01-25 53.8 Differdange 03 3 867 27.86% @ Union Luxembourg 2 881 45.74% 26.40%
16 1975-02-22 51.9 Fola Esch 2 762 17.88% @ Union Luxembourg 1 873 56.51% 25.61%
17 1974-11-16 51.8 @ Union Luxembourg 3 816 34.57% Aris Bonnevoie 2 883 38.96% 26.46%
18 1974-09-07 51.4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 847 56.02% Rumelange 1 741 18.31% 25.67%
19 1974-12-21 51.3 @ Avenir Beggen 1 872 52.10% Rumelange 1 804 21.85% 26.05%
20 1975-01-11 51.3 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 827 36.10% Avenir Beggen 2 883 37.41% 26.49%
21 1975-02-02 51.3 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 896 52.69% Alliance Dudelange 1 823 21.31% 26.00%
22 1975-04-19 51.3 @ Spora Luxembourg 1 753 25.22% Differdange 03 1 894 48.77% 26.01%
23 1974-09-07 51.2 @ Differdange 03 1 899 49.06% Alliance Dudelange 1 857 24.68% 26.26%
24 1974-10-20 51.2 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 876 50.82% Spora Luxembourg 1 819 23.03% 26.15%
25 1974-11-02 51.2 @ Red Star Merl 1 753 28.43% Alliance Dudelange 1 866 45.34% 26.23%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-04-19 25.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1020 70.50% Red Star Merl 0 724 7.26% 22.24%
2 1975-03-08 26.4 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1044 68.51% Spora Luxembourg 0 781 8.52% 22.98%
3 1974-12-21 29.1 Jeunesse Esch 5 997 59.66% @ Red Star Merl 0 754 15.66% 24.68%
4 1974-10-26 31.4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 4 901 51.94% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 835 22.00% 26.07%
5 1975-03-02 32.3 Jeunesse Esch 7 1009 53.18% @ Rumelange 0 830 21.21% 25.61%
6 1975-02-02 33.0 Jeunesse Esch 2 983 56.56% @ Fola Esch 0 772 18.26% 25.18%
7 1974-10-27 33.1 Jeunesse Esch 3 966 49.33% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 820 24.70% 25.97%
8 1975-01-04 33.3 Aris Bonnevoie 3 873 48.56% @ Red Star Merl 0 734 25.41% 26.03%
9 1974-10-05 33.5 @ Avenir Beggen 3 845 48.18% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 811 25.51% 26.30%
10 1974-11-02 33.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 984 58.93% Progres Niedercorn 1 848 15.80% 25.27%
11 1975-03-08 33.6 @ Differdange 03 2 879 54.54% Fola Esch 0 788 19.63% 25.83%
12 1974-09-15 33.7 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 859 47.45% Avenir Beggen 0 830 26.22% 26.34%
13 1975-02-15 33.9 Differdange 03 2 874 53.68% @ Red Star Merl 0 691 20.77% 25.55%
14 1974-10-20 34.2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 7 792 46.73% Fola Esch 0 769 26.90% 26.37%
15 1975-04-05 34.6 Union Luxembourg 3 879 44.43% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 772 29.29% 26.28%
16 1975-02-15 34.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 993 55.26% Aris Bonnevoie 1 895 18.98% 25.76%
17 1974-09-14 35.3 @ Jeunesse Esch 7 939 49.06% Differdange 03 1 898 24.69% 26.26%
18 1974-08-31 35.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 921 57.51% Union Luxembourg 0 800 17.01% 25.48%
19 1974-09-29 35.5 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 807 48.25% Red Star Merl 0 772 25.45% 26.30%
20 1974-09-29 35.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 6 949 59.09% Fola Esch 2 811 15.66% 25.25%
21 1975-02-08 35.9 Rumelange 2 832 47.10% @ Red Star Merl 0 704 26.77% 26.13%
22 1974-09-07 36.1 Jeunesse Esch 2 926 46.23% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 805 27.59% 26.18%
23 1974-11-02 36.1 @ Differdange 03 5 870 36.55% Aris Bonnevoie 0 923 36.96% 26.49%
24 1975-01-18 36.1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 891 55.53% Spora Luxembourg 0 791 18.74% 25.72%
25 1974-09-07 36.7 @ Red Star Merl 2 800 44.39% Union Luxembourg 0 795 29.17% 26.44%