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1975-76 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Differdange 03

3.91 points above expected

30 points · 26.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Chiers Rodange

6.27 points below expected

21 points · 27.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 14 6 2 34 50 24 +26 31.77 +2.23
2 Differdange 03 22 12 6 4 30 46 24 +22 26.09 +3.91
3 Rumelange 22 9 7 6 25 32 21 +11 22.50 +2.50
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 10 5 7 25 39 29 +10 21.88 +3.12
5 Aris Bonnevoie 22 10 4 8 24 31 23 +8 22.36 +1.64
6 Progres Niedercorn 22 9 4 9 22 30 37 -7 19.12 +2.88
7 Chiers Rodange 22 9 3 10 21 36 39 -3 27.27 -6.27
8 Avenir Beggen 22 6 8 8 20 28 29 -1 18.93 +1.07
9 Alliance Dudelange 22 7 6 9 20 36 39 -3 20.56 -0.56
10 Stade Dudelange 22 5 8 9 18 27 31 -4 20.62 -2.62
11 Union Luxembourg 22 5 7 10 17 20 35 -15 19.50 -2.50
12 Fola Esch 22 2 4 16 8 14 58 -44 13.40 -5.40

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Differdange 03 30 26.09 +3.91
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 25 21.88 +3.12
3 Progres Niedercorn 22 19.12 +2.88
4 Rumelange 25 22.50 +2.50
5 Jeunesse Esch 34 31.77 +2.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Chiers Rodange 21 27.27 -6.27
2 Fola Esch 8 13.40 -5.40
3 Stade Dudelange 18 20.62 -2.62
4 Union Luxembourg 17 19.50 -2.50
5 Alliance Dudelange 20 20.56 -0.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 7 Sep 6 – Nov 8 1 in 110
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 Sep 7 – Sep 20 1 in 29
3 Differdange 03 4 Dec 13 – Jan 24 1 in 19
4 Progres Niedercorn 3 Jan 24 – Mar 14 1 in 16
5 Avenir Beggen 2 Oct 5 – Oct 25 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aris Bonnevoie 5 Dec 6 – Jan 24 1 in 286
2 Jeunesse Esch 2 Apr 30 – May 8 1 in 71
3 Stade Dudelange 5 Jan 24 – Apr 3 1 in 69
4 Fola Esch 8 Jan 24 – May 8 1 in 62
5 Alliance Dudelange 4 Jan 10 – Feb 1 1 in 34

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 6 Nov 29 – Jan 24 1 in 58
2 Aris Bonnevoie 7 Jan 31 – May 8 1 in 49
3 Jeunesse Esch 20 Sep 6 – Apr 10 1 in 38
4 Fola Esch 4 Nov 22 – Dec 13 1 in 24
5 Differdange 03 10 Nov 30 – Apr 3 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 5 Jan 17 – Mar 21 1 in 132
2 Aris Bonnevoie 6 Dec 6 – Jan 31 1 in 19
3 Stade Dudelange 8 Jan 17 – Apr 30 1 in 19
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 5 Sep 28 – Nov 15 1 in 17
5 Differdange 03 3 Nov 22 – Dec 6 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 872 34 -99 5 7.7 -2.7
Differdange 03 908 30 +22 7 7.2 -0.2
Etzella Ettelbruck 802 25 +49 6 4.8 +1.2
Rumelange 799 25 +11 6 6.0 +0.0
Aris Bonnevoie 817 24 +117 8 4.6 +3.4
Progres Niedercorn 740 22 +23 6 3.8 +2.2
Chiers Rodange 752 21 -104 2 5.6 -3.6
Avenir Beggen 747 20 +66 7 4.6 +2.4
Alliance Dudelange 724 20 -7 5 4.8 +0.2
Stade Dudelange 658 18 -26 3 4.0 -1.0
Union Luxembourg 655 17 -2 5 4.4 +0.6
Fola Esch 496 8 -53 0 2.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB AB CR D0 EE FE JE PN RUM SD UL
Alliance Dudelange —
1-0-1
2.35
0-2-0
3.02
1-0-1
1.65
2-0-0
1.79
0-0-2
2.60
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
3.07
0-0-2
2.71
0-2-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.72
Aris Bonnevoie
1-0-1
3.11
—
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
2.22
0-0-2
2.45
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.39
0-1-1
1.37
0-1-1
3.45
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.82
Avenir Beggen
0-2-0
2.43
1-0-1
2.32
—
1-0-1
1.47
0-2-0
1.64
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
3.87
0-1-1
1.23
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
2.66
Chiers Rodange
1-0-1
3.82
0-0-2
3.24
1-0-1
4.01
—
0-0-2
2.85
0-1-1
3.59
2-0-0
4.44
0-0-2
2.57
2-0-0
3.79
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.64
1-1-0
3.73
Differdange 03
0-0-2
3.68
2-0-0
3.01
0-2-0
3.83
2-0-0
2.61
—
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
4.52
0-1-1
1.87
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.38
1-1-0
3.19
Etzella Ettelbruck
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
3.38
1-1-0
1.87
0-1-1
2.26
—
1-1-0
3.75
1-0-1
1.18
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
3.06
Fola Esch
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.07
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
1.07
0-1-1
1.00
0-1-1
1.72
—
0-1-1
1.00
0-0-2
2.10
0-1-1
1.36
0-0-2
2.41
0-0-2
1.60
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
3.83
1-1-0
4.11
1-1-0
4.27
2-0-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.59
1-0-1
4.32
1-1-0
4.52
—
1-0-1
4.31
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.18
Progres Niedercorn
1-1-0
2.39
1-1-0
2.01
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
1.86
1-0-1
2.49
2-0-0
3.36
1-0-1
1.19
—
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
2.41
Rumelange
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.43
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
4.13
0-1-1
1.46
1-1-0
3.31
—
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
3.11
Stade Dudelange
0-2-0
2.30
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
1.82
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.05
0-1-1
1.19
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.50
—
0-1-1
2.78
Union Luxembourg
0-1-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.79
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.40
2-0-0
3.87
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
3.05
2-0-0
2.34
1-1-0
2.68
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +6.1
Allowed 0.68 -5.3
Differential 0.94 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%8.33%7.20%3.41%3.03%1.89%29.17%
18.33%12.12%4.17%2.65%0.76%1.14%29.17%
27.20%4.17%6.82%2.65%0.76%0.76%22.35%
33.41%2.65%2.65%0.76%—0.38%9.85%
43.03%0.76%0.76%—0.76%—5.30%
5+1.89%1.14%0.76%0.38%——4.17%
Total29.17%29.17%22.35%9.85%5.30%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.42 2.18
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——13.64%9.09%——22.73%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%——22.73%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%27.27%31.82%22.73%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.77 -0.14
SD 1.50 1.11 1.93
CV 0.92 0.63 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%——40.91%
19.09%—4.55%———13.64%
29.09%4.55%4.55%——4.55%22.73%
39.09%—4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%22.73%22.73%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.05 +0.36
SD 1.50 1.29 2.08
CV 1.07 1.23 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
14.55%27.27%4.55%———36.36%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total22.73%45.45%13.64%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.32 -0.05
SD 1.32 1.13 1.96
CV 1.03 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—9.09%—4.55%18.18%
14.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
213.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%—45.45%
3—4.55%————4.55%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%18.18%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.77 -0.14
SD 1.14 1.57 2.34
CV 0.69 0.89 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
113.64%22.73%4.55%———40.91%
218.18%4.55%—4.55%——27.27%
3—4.55%—4.55%—4.55%13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total36.36%40.91%9.09%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.09 +1.00
SD 1.60 1.27 1.88
CV 0.77 1.16 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%——4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%—9.09%——27.27%
2—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
3——9.09%———9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total27.27%36.36%22.73%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.32 +0.45
SD 1.74 1.25 2.56
CV 0.98 0.95 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%13.64%9.09%54.55%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%—9.09%31.82%
2——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%9.09%22.73%18.18%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.64 -2.00
SD 0.85 1.89 2.20
CV 1.33 0.72 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%———4.55%—13.64%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
213.64%9.09%9.09%——4.55%36.36%
39.09%—————9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
Total45.45%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.09 +1.18
SD 1.67 1.41 2.08
CV 0.73 1.29 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%9.09%—9.09%—31.82%
118.18%4.55%4.55%——4.55%31.82%
24.55%—13.64%———18.18%
3——9.09%———9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%40.91%—9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.68 -0.32
SD 1.40 1.67 2.32
CV 1.03 0.99 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%———31.82%
14.55%9.09%——4.55%—18.18%
213.64%—13.64%———27.27%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%40.91%18.18%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 0.95 +0.50
SD 1.26 1.00 1.71
CV 0.87 1.05 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%22.73%9.09%9.09%——50.00%
24.55%—4.55%———9.09%
3———————
44.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.41 -0.18
SD 1.27 1.14 1.56
CV 1.03 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
113.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
2——13.64%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%31.82%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.59 -0.68
SD 1.02 1.50 1.99
CV 1.12 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Differdange 03 908 30 26.09 +3.91 89.0% 18 20 23 26 28 32 37
Jeunesse Esch 872 34 31.77 +2.23 80.0% 24 26 29 32 34 37 40
Aris Bonnevoie 817 24 22.36 +1.64 74.0% 14 17 20 22 25 28 35
Etzella Ettelbruck 802 25 21.88 +3.12 79.0% 11 15 19 22 24 29 32
Rumelange 799 25 22.50 +2.50 80.0% 15 16 20 22 25 30 32
Chiers Rodange 752 21 27.27 -6.27 9.0% 17 20 25 27 30 33 39
Avenir Beggen 747 20 18.93 +1.07 71.0% 9 12 16 19 21 26 29
Progres Niedercorn 740 22 19.12 +2.88 83.0% 12 13 17 19 21 25 28
Alliance Dudelange 724 20 20.56 -0.56 51.0% 12 15 17 20 23 27 30
Stade Dudelange 658 18 20.62 -2.62 24.0% 8 15 19 21 23 26 30
Union Luxembourg 655 17 19.50 -2.50 30.0% 13 14 17 19 22 26 29
Fola Esch 496 8 13.40 -5.40 9.0% 4 6 11 14 16 20 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.06%
No Edge
40.15%25.76%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.08 Elo pts.
215 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
70%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Comfortable
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.02 * Some Luck: 3.02 to 4.52 * Lucky: 4.52 to 6.03 * Wild Swing: 6.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.53 * Close: 1.53 to 2.3 * Off: 2.3 to 3.07 * Way Off: 3.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.29 points
Some Luck
03.779
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Close
01.924
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
89.00%
Differdange 03
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
9.00%
Chiers Rodange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 109.72
1.63
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
64%
Even
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Clear Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Rare
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.75
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.26
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.81
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch70.00%15.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%———————
Differdange 0311.00%27.00%21.00%11.00%8.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%——
Rumelange2.00%7.00%8.00%16.00%14.00%17.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%12.00%4.00%—
Etzella Ettelbruck2.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%12.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%4.00%3.00%
Aris Bonnevoie2.00%4.00%9.00%14.00%14.00%18.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%—
Progres Niedercorn——4.00%2.00%8.00%8.00%14.00%7.00%19.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%
Chiers Rodange13.00%29.00%23.00%14.00%9.00%2.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%—1.00%—
Avenir Beggen—2.00%3.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%11.00%13.00%17.00%12.00%21.00%6.00%
Alliance Dudelange—6.00%2.00%7.00%19.00%5.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%18.00%12.00%1.00%
Stade Dudelange—1.00%5.00%10.00%7.00%13.00%18.00%18.00%9.00%11.00%4.00%4.00%
Union Luxembourg—2.00%4.00%6.00%4.00%8.00%8.00%19.00%12.00%12.00%17.00%8.00%
Fola Esch————1.00%—3.00%2.00%3.00%7.00%16.00%68.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Differdange 03 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Chiers Rodange 99.00% 1.00%
Rumelange 96.00% 4.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 94.00% 6.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 93.00% 7.00%
Stade Dudelange 92.00% 8.00%
Alliance Dudelange 87.00% 13.00%
Progres Niedercorn 75.00% 25.00%
Union Luxembourg 75.00% 25.00%
Avenir Beggen 73.00% 27.00%
Fola Esch 16.00% 84.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1975-09-06 Chiers Rodange W 4-144.6 818 899 29.55% 27.19% 43.26%-0.28 +29.8 2
1975-09-06 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-444.6 899 818 43.26% 27.19% 29.55%+0.28 -29.8 0
1975-09-06 Alliance Dudelange D 4-463.1 673 741 31.43% 27.24% 41.32%-0.21 +0.3 1
1975-09-06 @ Stade Dudelange D 4-463.1 741 673 41.32% 27.24% 31.43%+0.21 -0.3 1
1975-09-07 Fola Esch W 3-035.6 718 701 43.12% 27.27% 29.62%+0.18 +26.6 2
1975-09-07 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-335.6 701 718 29.62% 27.27% 43.12%-0.18 -26.6 0
1975-09-07 Union Luxembourg D 1-151.7 754 773 38.06% 27.32% 34.61%+0.01 -0.2 1
1975-09-07 @ Differdange 03 D 1-151.7 773 754 34.61% 27.32% 38.06%-0.01 +0.2 1
1975-09-07 Progres Niedercorn W 4-036.0 714 727 39.03% 27.32% 33.65%+0.04 +38.2 2
1975-09-07 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-436.0 727 714 33.65% 27.32% 39.03%-0.04 -38.2 0
1975-09-07 Avenir Beggen W 4-037.2 706 746 35.18% 27.31% 37.51%-0.09 +41.4 2
1975-09-07 @ Rumelange L 0-437.2 746 706 37.51% 27.31% 35.18%+0.09 -41.4 0
1975-09-13 Jeunesse Esch L 0-334.5 740 848 26.37% 27.04% 46.59%-0.40 -24.3 1
1975-09-13 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-034.5 848 740 46.59% 27.04% 26.37%+0.40 +24.3 4
1975-09-13 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-239.1 704 745 35.11% 27.31% 37.58%-0.09 -20.8 0
1975-09-13 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-039.1 745 704 37.58% 27.31% 35.11%+0.09 +20.8 4
1975-09-14 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-252.6 870 752 54.74% 26.61% 18.66%+0.64 -14.9 0
1975-09-14 @ Chiers Rodange W 2-152.6 752 870 18.66% 26.61% 54.74%-0.64 +14.9 4
1975-09-14 Rumelange L 0-143.8 754 747 41.61% 27.30% 31.09%+0.13 -12.5 1
1975-09-14 @ Differdange 03 W 1-043.8 747 754 31.09% 27.30% 41.61%-0.13 +12.5 4
1975-09-14 Stade Dudelange L 0-438.2 674 674 40.81% 27.31% 31.88%+0.10 -44.1 0
1975-09-14 @ Fola Esch W 4-038.2 674 674 31.88% 27.31% 40.81%-0.10 +44.1 3
1975-09-14 Progres Niedercorn L 0-243.9 774 688 51.33% 26.90% 21.77%+0.49 -28.2 1
1975-09-14 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-043.9 688 774 21.77% 26.90% 51.33%-0.49 +28.2 2
1975-09-20 Differdange 03 L 0-241.8 766 741 44.03% 27.25% 28.73%+0.21 -24.7 4
1975-09-20 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-041.8 741 766 28.73% 27.25% 44.03%-0.21 +24.7 3
1975-09-20 Alliance Dudelange W 2-143.9 767 716 47.39% 27.13% 25.48%+0.34 +8.2 6
1975-09-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-243.9 716 767 25.48% 27.13% 47.39%-0.34 -8.2 1
1975-09-20 Fola Esch W 6-131.2 872 630 65.06% 24.85% 10.09%+1.22 +14.1 6
1975-09-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-631.2 630 872 10.09% 24.85% 65.06%-1.22 -14.1 0
1975-09-20 Chiers Rodange L 0-432.6 717 855 22.93% 26.81% 50.26%-0.54 -28.4 2
1975-09-20 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-032.6 855 717 50.26% 26.81% 22.93%+0.54 +28.4 2
1975-09-20 Union Luxembourg L 0-144.1 760 745 42.73% 27.28% 29.99%+0.17 -12.8 4
1975-09-20 @ Rumelange W 1-044.1 745 760 29.99% 27.28% 42.73%-0.17 +12.8 3
1975-09-20 Avenir Beggen W 1-039.5 718 684 45.28% 27.21% 27.51%+0.26 +9.2 5
1975-09-20 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-139.5 684 718 27.51% 27.21% 45.28%-0.26 -9.2 0
1975-09-27 Chiers Rodange L 0-235.8 758 883 24.36% 26.92% 48.73%-0.48 -15.7 3
1975-09-27 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-035.8 883 758 48.73% 26.92% 24.36%+0.48 +15.7 4
1975-09-28 Progres Niedercorn D 1-151.7 708 688 43.39% 27.26% 29.35%+0.19 -0.8 2
1975-09-28 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.7 688 708 29.35% 27.26% 43.39%-0.19 +0.9 3
1975-09-28 Jeunesse Esch L 0-233.1 675 886 16.15% 25.99% 57.86%-0.88 -11.2 0
1975-09-28 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-033.1 886 675 57.86% 25.99% 16.15%+0.88 +11.2 8
1975-09-28 Stade Dudelange W 2-144.4 766 727 45.84% 27.19% 26.97%+0.28 +8.5 5
1975-09-28 @ Differdange 03 L 1-244.4 727 766 26.97% 27.19% 45.84%-0.28 -8.5 5
1975-09-28 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-257.3 616 775 20.74% 26.61% 52.66%-0.64 +1.5 1
1975-09-28 @ Fola Esch D 2-257.3 775 616 52.66% 26.61% 20.74%+0.64 -1.5 7
1975-09-28 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-444.1 747 741 41.63% 27.30% 31.08%+0.13 -28.9 4
1975-09-28 @ Rumelange W 4-144.1 741 747 31.08% 27.30% 41.63%-0.13 +28.9 6
1975-10-04 Union Luxembourg W 3-249.8 770 742 44.40% 27.24% 28.36%+0.22 +8.4 8
1975-10-04 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-349.8 742 770 28.36% 27.24% 44.40%-0.22 -8.4 3
1975-10-05 Alliance Dudelange L 2-359.2 899 707 61.39% 25.67% 12.95%+0.99 -15.8 4
1975-10-05 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-259.2 707 899 12.95% 25.67% 61.39%-0.99 +15.8 4
1975-10-05 Avenir Beggen L 1-350.0 774 663 54.03% 26.68% 19.29%+0.61 -25.6 7
1975-10-05 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-150.0 663 774 19.29% 26.68% 54.03%-0.61 +25.6 2
1975-10-05 Differdange 03 W 5-345.2 897 774 55.29% 26.55% 18.16%+0.67 +9.1 10
1975-10-05 @ Jeunesse Esch L 3-545.2 774 897 18.16% 26.55% 55.29%-0.67 -9.1 5
1975-10-05 Fola Esch W 3-248.2 689 617 49.82% 27.00% 23.18%+0.43 +7.2 5
1975-10-05 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-348.2 617 689 23.18% 27.00% 49.82%-0.43 -7.2 1
1975-10-05 Rumelange D 1-151.7 719 718 40.82% 27.31% 31.87%+0.10 -0.5 6
1975-10-05 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-151.7 718 719 31.87% 27.31% 40.82%-0.10 +0.5 5
1975-10-25 Progres Niedercorn W 1-041.2 689 696 39.77% 27.32% 32.91%+0.06 +10.5 4
1975-10-25 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-141.2 696 689 32.91% 27.32% 39.77%-0.06 -10.5 5
1975-10-26 Union Luxembourg D 2-257.1 723 734 39.22% 27.32% 33.45%+0.05 -0.2 5
1975-10-26 @ Alliance Dudelange D 2-257.1 734 723 33.45% 27.32% 39.22%-0.05 +0.3 4
1975-10-26 Stade Dudelange D 0-047.6 778 718 48.46% 27.07% 24.46%+0.38 -1.7 9
1975-10-26 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.6 718 778 24.46% 27.07% 48.46%-0.38 +1.7 7
1975-10-26 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.7 765 748 43.05% 27.27% 29.68%+0.18 -0.8 6
1975-10-26 @ Differdange 03 D 1-151.7 748 765 29.68% 27.27% 43.05%-0.18 +0.8 8
1975-10-26 Chiers Rodange L 0-428.8 610 883 11.97% 25.05% 62.98%-1.17 -16.2 1
1975-10-26 @ Fola Esch W 4-028.8 883 610 62.98% 25.05% 11.97%+1.17 +16.1 6
1975-10-26 Jeunesse Esch L 0-233.7 719 906 18.14% 26.29% 55.57%-0.77 -12.3 5
1975-10-26 @ Rumelange W 2-033.7 906 719 55.57% 26.29% 18.14%+0.77 +12.3 12
1975-11-08 Fola Esch W 6-134.0 723 594 55.83% 26.49% 17.68%+0.69 +23.5 7
1975-11-08 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-634.0 594 723 17.68% 26.49% 55.83%-0.69 -23.5 1
1975-11-08 Avenir Beggen W 2-139.6 899 699 62.00% 25.55% 12.45%+1.03 +4.5 8
1975-11-08 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-239.6 699 899 12.45% 25.55% 62.00%-1.03 -4.5 4
1975-11-08 Rumelange L 1-347.8 749 706 46.33% 27.17% 26.50%+0.30 -22.3 8
1975-11-08 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-147.8 706 749 26.50% 27.17% 46.33%-0.30 +22.3 7
1975-11-08 Aris Bonnevoie W 5-239.3 919 776 57.13% 26.33% 16.53%+0.76 +12.1 14
1975-11-08 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-539.3 776 919 16.53% 26.33% 57.13%-0.76 -12.1 9
1975-11-08 Differdange 03 L 0-140.3 686 764 29.92% 27.20% 42.88%-0.27 -9.8 5
1975-11-08 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-040.3 764 686 42.88% 27.20% 29.92%+0.27 +9.8 8
1975-11-08 Stade Dudelange D 1-151.7 734 720 42.73% 27.28% 30.00%+0.17 -0.8 5
1975-11-08 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-151.7 720 734 30.00% 27.28% 42.73%-0.17 +0.8 8
1975-11-15 Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-039.4 764 727 45.71% 27.19% 27.10%+0.27 +9.1 11
1975-11-15 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-139.4 727 764 27.10% 27.19% 45.71%-0.27 -9.1 8
1975-11-15 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.7 695 746 33.61% 27.29% 39.09%-0.14 +0.3 5
1975-11-15 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.7 746 695 39.09% 27.29% 33.61%+0.14 -0.3 8
1975-11-15 Chiers Rodange W 5-040.7 774 903 23.87% 26.88% 49.25%-0.50 +63.4 10
1975-11-15 @ Differdange 03 L 0-540.7 903 774 49.25% 26.88% 23.87%+0.50 -63.4 8
1975-11-15 Union Luxembourg L 0-137.2 571 733 20.40% 26.57% 53.03%-0.66 -7.2 1
1975-11-15 @ Fola Esch W 1-037.2 733 571 53.03% 26.57% 20.40%+0.66 +7.2 7
1975-11-15 Progres Niedercorn W 2-036.1 729 676 47.58% 27.12% 25.30%+0.34 +16.2 9
1975-11-15 @ Rumelange L 0-236.1 676 729 25.30% 27.12% 47.58%-0.34 -16.2 5
1975-11-15 Jeunesse Esch D 2-257.4 720 931 16.25% 26.00% 57.75%-0.88 +2.0 9
1975-11-15 @ Stade Dudelange D 2-257.4 931 720 57.75% 26.00% 16.25%+0.88 -2.0 15
1975-11-22 Differdange 03 W 3-254.7 746 838 28.24% 27.13% 44.63%-0.33 +11.8 10
1975-11-22 @ Alliance Dudelange L 2-354.7 838 746 44.63% 27.13% 28.24%+0.33 -11.8 10
1975-11-22 Rumelange D 2-257.2 840 745 52.42% 26.82% 20.76%+0.54 -1.5 9
1975-11-22 @ Chiers Rodange D 2-257.2 745 840 20.76% 26.82% 52.42%-0.54 +1.5 10
1975-11-22 Stade Dudelange W 2-146.1 718 723 40.10% 27.31% 32.59%+0.08 +9.8 10
1975-11-22 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-246.1 723 718 32.59% 27.31% 40.10%-0.08 -9.8 9
1975-11-22 Avenir Beggen W 3-041.4 563 695 23.58% 26.86% 49.56%-0.52 +39.6 3
1975-11-22 @ Fola Esch L 0-341.4 695 563 49.56% 26.86% 23.58%+0.52 -39.6 5
1975-11-22 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-045.4 660 773 25.64% 27.00% 47.36%-0.43 +13.9 7
1975-11-22 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-145.4 773 660 47.36% 27.00% 25.64%+0.43 -13.9 11
1975-11-22 Jeunesse Esch L 0-431.0 741 929 18.10% 26.29% 55.61%-0.78 -23.4 7
1975-11-22 @ Union Luxembourg W 4-031.0 929 741 55.61% 26.29% 18.10%+0.78 +23.3 17
1975-11-29 Union Luxembourg W 2-040.8 656 717 32.16% 27.26% 40.57%-0.19 +23.1 7
1975-11-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-240.8 717 656 40.57% 27.26% 32.16%+0.19 -23.1 7
1975-11-30 Chiers Rodange W 2-149.2 759 839 29.87% 27.20% 42.94%-0.27 +12.1 13
1975-11-30 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-249.2 839 759 42.94% 27.20% 29.87%+0.27 -12.1 9
1975-11-30 Fola Esch D 1-152.3 826 603 63.73% 25.18% 11.10%+1.13 -3.6 11
1975-11-30 @ Differdange 03 D 1-152.3 603 826 11.10% 25.18% 63.73%-1.13 +3.6 4
1975-11-30 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-031.3 952 727 63.86% 25.15% 11.00%+1.14 +7.9 19
1975-11-30 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-231.3 727 952 11.00% 25.15% 63.86%-1.14 -7.9 10
1975-11-30 Alliance Dudelange W 2-038.6 746 758 39.25% 27.32% 33.43%+0.05 +20.0 12
1975-11-30 @ Rumelange L 0-238.6 758 746 33.43% 27.32% 39.25%-0.05 -20.0 10
1975-11-30 Progres Niedercorn W 1-039.3 713 674 45.89% 27.19% 26.92%+0.28 +9.0 11
1975-11-30 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-139.3 674 713 26.92% 27.19% 45.89%-0.28 -9.0 7
1975-12-06 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-042.3 737 772 35.99% 27.32% 36.69%-0.06 +11.4 12
1975-12-06 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-142.3 772 737 36.69% 27.32% 35.99%+0.06 -11.4 13
1975-12-06 Differdange 03 D 1-151.9 679 822 22.37% 26.76% 50.86%-0.57 +1.8 8
1975-12-06 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.9 822 679 50.86% 26.76% 22.37%+0.57 -1.8 12
1975-12-06 Stade Dudelange W 3-139.8 826 722 53.44% 26.73% 19.83%+0.58 +11.5 11
1975-12-06 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-339.8 722 826 19.83% 26.73% 53.44%-0.58 -11.5 11
1975-12-06 Rumelange D 0-047.8 607 767 20.70% 26.60% 52.70%-0.64 +2.3 5
1975-12-06 @ Fola Esch D 0-047.8 767 607 52.70% 26.60% 20.70%+0.64 -2.3 13
1975-12-06 Jeunesse Esch L 1-238.8 665 960 10.71% 24.65% 64.65%-1.27 -3.8 7
1975-12-06 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-138.8 960 665 64.65% 24.65% 10.71%+1.27 +3.8 21
1975-12-06 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-142.5 694 720 37.24% 27.32% 35.43%-0.02 -11.5 7
1975-12-06 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-042.5 720 694 35.43% 27.32% 37.24%+0.02 +11.5 12
1975-12-13 Stade Dudelange D 1-151.7 749 710 45.84% 27.19% 26.97%+0.28 -1.2 13
1975-12-13 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.7 710 749 26.97% 27.19% 45.84%-0.28 +1.2 12
1975-12-13 Rumelange D 1-151.7 681 764 29.29% 27.18% 43.53%-0.29 +0.9 9
1975-12-13 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.7 764 681 43.53% 27.18% 29.29%+0.29 -0.9 14
1975-12-13 Jeunesse Esch L 0-138.5 838 964 24.25% 26.91% 48.84%-0.49 -8.3 11
1975-12-13 @ Chiers Rodange W 1-038.5 964 838 48.84% 26.91% 24.25%+0.49 +8.3 23
1975-12-13 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-046.7 609 760 21.55% 26.69% 51.76%-0.60 +15.0 7
1975-12-13 @ Fola Esch L 0-146.7 760 609 51.76% 26.69% 21.55%+0.60 -15.0 13
1975-12-13 Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-043.8 661 731 31.02% 27.23% 41.75%-0.23 +12.5 9
1975-12-13 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-143.8 731 661 41.75% 27.23% 31.02%+0.23 -12.5 12
1975-12-13 Differdange 03 L 0-138.1 683 820 22.97% 26.81% 50.21%-0.54 -8.0 7
1975-12-13 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-038.1 820 683 50.21% 26.81% 22.97%+0.54 +7.9 14
1976-01-10 Avenir Beggen L 1-250.9 745 682 48.88% 27.05% 24.07%+0.39 -13.5 13
1976-01-10 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-150.9 682 745 24.07% 27.05% 48.88%-0.39 +13.5 11
1976-01-10 Chiers Rodange D 1-151.8 718 830 25.92% 27.02% 47.06%-0.42 +1.3 13
1976-01-10 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.8 830 718 47.06% 27.02% 25.92%+0.42 -1.3 12
1976-01-10 Alliance Dudelange W 3-029.3 972 748 63.84% 25.15% 11.01%+1.14 +11.5 25
1976-01-10 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-329.3 748 972 11.01% 25.15% 63.84%-1.14 -11.5 13
1976-01-10 Union Luxembourg D 2-257.1 673 675 40.58% 27.31% 32.11%+0.09 -0.4 10
1976-01-10 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-257.1 675 673 32.11% 27.31% 40.58%-0.09 +0.4 8
1976-01-10 Differdange 03 L 0-140.8 763 828 31.72% 27.25% 41.03%-0.20 -10.2 14
1976-01-10 @ Rumelange W 1-040.8 828 763 41.03% 27.25% 31.72%+0.20 +10.2 16
1976-01-10 Fola Esch W 2-034.9 711 624 51.58% 26.88% 21.53%+0.50 +14.3 14
1976-01-10 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-234.9 624 711 21.53% 26.88% 51.58%-0.50 -14.3 7
1976-01-17 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-354.2 736 720 42.97% 27.27% 29.76%+0.17 -11.5 13
1976-01-17 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-254.2 720 736 29.76% 27.27% 42.97%-0.17 +11.5 15
1976-01-17 Stade Dudelange D 1-151.7 695 726 36.49% 27.32% 36.19%-0.04 -0.0 12
1976-01-17 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.7 726 695 36.19% 27.32% 36.49%+0.04 +0.0 15
1976-01-17 Progres Niedercorn W 2-032.9 828 673 58.33% 26.17% 15.50%+0.82 +10.8 14
1976-01-17 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-232.9 673 828 15.50% 26.17% 58.33%-0.82 -10.8 10
1976-01-17 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-034.3 838 732 53.66% 26.71% 19.63%+0.59 +13.2 18
1976-01-17 @ Differdange 03 L 0-234.3 732 838 19.63% 26.71% 53.66%-0.59 -13.2 13
1976-01-17 Jeunesse Esch D 0-048.8 610 984 7.28% 23.08% 69.65%-1.64 +4.9 8
1976-01-17 @ Fola Esch D 0-048.8 984 610 69.65% 23.08% 7.28%+1.64 -4.9 26
1976-01-17 Rumelange W 1-044.1 675 753 30.01% 27.20% 42.79%-0.26 +12.8 10
1976-01-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-144.1 753 675 42.79% 27.20% 30.01%+0.26 -12.8 14
1976-01-24 Rumelange L 0-338.0 718 740 37.72% 27.32% 34.95%+0.00 -31.8 13
1976-01-24 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-038.0 740 718 34.95% 27.32% 37.72%+0.00 +31.8 16
1976-01-24 Union Luxembourg D 2-257.4 839 688 57.97% 26.22% 15.81%+0.80 -2.1 15
1976-01-24 @ Chiers Rodange D 2-257.4 688 839 15.81% 26.22% 57.97%-0.80 +2.1 11
1976-01-24 Fola Esch W 5-031.4 731 615 54.67% 26.61% 18.72%+0.64 +29.8 17
1976-01-24 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-531.4 615 731 18.72% 26.61% 54.67%-0.64 -29.8 8
1976-01-24 Avenir Beggen D 1-152.7 979 695 67.73% 24.07% 8.21%+1.42 -4.2 27
1976-01-24 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-152.7 695 979 8.21% 24.07% 67.73%-1.42 +4.2 13
1976-01-24 Alliance Dudelange W 3-253.5 662 725 32.04% 27.26% 40.70%-0.19 +11.0 12
1976-01-24 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-353.5 725 662 40.70% 27.26% 32.04%+0.19 -11.0 13
1976-01-24 Differdange 03 L 0-235.8 726 852 24.22% 26.91% 48.87%-0.49 -15.6 15
1976-01-24 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-035.8 852 726 48.87% 26.91% 24.22%+0.49 +15.6 20
1976-01-31 Progres Niedercorn L 0-434.5 585 673 28.69% 27.15% 44.15%-0.31 -33.9 8
1976-01-31 @ Fola Esch W 4-034.5 673 585 44.15% 27.15% 28.69%+0.31 +33.9 14
1976-01-31 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.5 690 687 41.23% 27.30% 31.46%+0.11 -0.6 12
1976-01-31 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-047.5 687 690 31.46% 27.30% 41.23%-0.11 +0.7 14
1976-02-01 Chiers Rodange L 0-235.9 714 837 24.52% 26.93% 48.55%-0.48 -15.8 13
1976-02-01 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-035.9 837 714 48.55% 26.93% 24.52%+0.48 +15.8 17
1976-02-01 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-350.9 699 761 32.14% 27.26% 40.60%-0.19 -9.2 13
1976-02-01 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-250.9 761 699 40.60% 27.26% 32.14%+0.19 +9.2 19
1976-02-01 Jeunesse Esch D 1-151.8 867 975 26.39% 27.04% 46.56%-0.40 +1.2 21
1976-02-01 @ Differdange 03 D 1-151.8 975 867 46.56% 27.04% 26.39%+0.40 -1.2 28
1976-02-01 Stade Dudelange W 3-141.2 772 710 48.70% 27.06% 24.23%+0.39 +13.6 18
1976-02-01 @ Rumelange L 1-341.2 710 772 24.23% 27.06% 48.70%-0.39 -13.6 15
1976-03-13 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-143.9 696 687 42.01% 27.29% 30.70%+0.14 -12.6 15
1976-03-13 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-043.9 687 696 30.70% 27.29% 42.01%-0.14 +12.6 16
1976-03-14 Fola Esch W 2-137.5 853 551 68.80% 23.70% 7.50%+1.50 +2.7 19
1976-03-14 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-237.5 551 853 7.50% 23.70% 68.80%-1.50 -2.7 8
1976-03-14 Differdange 03 L 0-236.8 770 869 27.45% 27.10% 45.45%-0.36 -17.2 19
1976-03-14 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-036.8 869 770 45.45% 27.10% 27.45%+0.36 +17.2 23
1976-03-14 Rumelange D 2-257.5 973 786 61.05% 25.73% 13.22%+0.97 -2.4 29
1976-03-14 @ Jeunesse Esch D 2-257.5 786 973 13.22% 25.73% 61.05%-0.97 +2.4 19
1976-03-14 Avenir Beggen W 1-040.2 707 690 43.06% 27.27% 29.67%+0.18 +9.7 16
1976-03-14 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-140.2 690 707 29.67% 27.27% 43.06%-0.18 -9.7 13
1976-03-14 Alliance Dudelange L 0-338.6 689 698 39.60% 27.32% 33.08%+0.06 -33.0 12
1976-03-14 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-038.6 698 689 33.08% 27.32% 39.60%-0.06 +33.0 15
1976-03-20 Progres Niedercorn W 7-132.4 886 717 59.53% 25.99% 14.48%+0.88 +23.4 25
1976-03-20 @ Differdange 03 L 1-732.4 717 886 14.48% 25.99% 59.53%-0.88 -23.4 16
1976-03-20 Union Luxembourg L 0-340.0 684 656 44.41% 27.24% 28.36%+0.23 -36.1 15
1976-03-20 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-040.0 656 684 28.36% 27.24% 44.41%-0.23 +36.1 14
1976-03-21 Jeunesse Esch D 0-048.2 700 971 12.07% 25.08% 62.85%-1.16 +3.9 17
1976-03-21 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 0-048.2 971 700 62.85% 25.08% 12.07%+1.16 -3.9 30
1976-03-21 Chiers Rodange W 3-042.7 680 856 19.23% 26.44% 54.34%-0.72 +43.0 15
1976-03-21 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-342.7 856 680 54.34% 26.44% 19.23%+0.72 -43.0 19
1976-03-21 Alliance Dudelange L 0-233.9 548 731 18.57% 26.35% 55.07%-0.75 -12.6 8
1976-03-21 @ Fola Esch W 2-033.9 731 548 55.07% 26.35% 18.57%+0.75 +12.6 17
1976-03-21 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-047.6 788 753 45.40% 27.20% 27.40%+0.26 -1.2 20
1976-03-21 @ Rumelange D 0-047.6 753 788 27.40% 27.20% 45.40%-0.26 +1.2 20
1976-04-03 Avenir Beggen D 1-151.7 743 723 43.47% 27.26% 29.27%+0.19 -0.9 18
1976-04-03 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.7 723 743 29.27% 27.26% 43.47%-0.19 +0.9 16
1976-04-03 Differdange 03 L 2-446.3 813 909 27.66% 27.11% 45.23%-0.35 -13.5 19
1976-04-03 @ Chiers Rodange W 4-246.3 909 813 45.23% 27.11% 27.66%+0.35 +13.4 27
1976-04-03 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-540.1 754 704 47.30% 27.13% 25.57%+0.33 -61.3 20
1976-04-03 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-040.1 704 754 25.57% 27.13% 47.30%-0.33 +61.3 19
1976-04-03 Stade Dudelange W 1-032.2 967 648 69.77% 23.34% 6.89%+1.58 +2.6 32
1976-04-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-132.2 648 967 6.89% 23.34% 69.77%-1.58 -2.6 15
1976-04-03 Rumelange D 2-257.1 693 787 28.04% 27.13% 44.83%-0.34 +0.8 17
1976-04-03 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-257.1 787 693 44.83% 27.13% 28.04%+0.34 -0.8 21
1976-04-03 Fola Esch W 3-138.2 693 536 58.46% 26.15% 15.38%+0.83 +9.3 16
1976-04-03 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-338.2 536 693 15.38% 26.15% 58.46%-0.83 -9.3 8
1976-04-10 Union Luxembourg W 2-138.1 970 702 66.75% 24.37% 8.88%+1.34 +3.2 34
1976-04-10 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-238.1 702 970 8.88% 24.37% 66.75%-1.34 -3.2 16
1976-04-11 Progres Niedercorn D 2-257.1 765 694 49.74% 27.00% 23.26%+0.43 -1.2 20
1976-04-11 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 2-257.1 694 765 23.26% 27.00% 49.74%-0.43 +1.2 18
1976-04-11 Fola Esch W 5-029.3 724 526 61.86% 25.58% 12.57%+1.02 +21.0 18
1976-04-11 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-529.3 526 724 12.57% 25.58% 61.86%-1.02 -21.0 8
1976-04-11 Alliance Dudelange L 1-254.0 923 743 60.45% 25.84% 13.72%+0.93 -16.4 27
1976-04-11 @ Differdange 03 W 2-154.0 743 923 13.72% 25.84% 60.45%-0.93 +16.4 20
1976-04-11 Chiers Rodange L 0-143.0 786 799 38.98% 27.32% 33.70%+0.04 -11.9 21
1976-04-11 @ Rumelange W 1-043.0 799 786 33.70% 27.32% 38.98%-0.04 +11.9 21
1976-04-11 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.7 645 693 34.05% 27.30% 38.66%-0.12 +0.3 16
1976-04-11 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-151.7 693 645 38.66% 27.30% 34.05%+0.12 -0.3 21
1976-04-30 Rumelange L 1-345.6 759 774 38.67% 27.32% 34.01%+0.03 -19.3 20
1976-04-30 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-145.6 774 759 34.01% 27.32% 38.67%-0.03 +19.3 23
1976-04-30 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-340.7 811 764 46.90% 27.15% 25.96%+0.32 -37.8 21
1976-04-30 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-040.7 764 811 25.96% 27.15% 46.90%-0.32 +37.8 22
1976-04-30 Jeunesse Esch W 4-044.3 693 973 11.54% 24.92% 63.55%-1.20 +65.2 23
1976-04-30 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-444.3 973 693 63.55% 24.92% 11.54%+1.20 -65.2 34
1976-04-30 Differdange 03 L 1-334.4 505 906 6.38% 22.49% 71.13%-1.76 -3.9 8
1976-04-30 @ Fola Esch W 3-134.4 906 505 71.13% 22.49% 6.38%+1.76 +3.9 29
1976-04-30 Stade Dudelange W 1-038.9 695 645 47.26% 27.13% 25.61%+0.33 +8.7 20
1976-04-30 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-138.9 645 695 25.61% 27.13% 47.26%-0.33 -8.7 16
1976-04-30 Avenir Beggen D 0-047.5 699 745 34.23% 27.30% 38.47%-0.12 +0.3 17
1976-04-30 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-047.5 745 699 38.47% 27.30% 34.23%+0.12 -0.3 19
1976-05-08 Alliance Dudelange W 2-035.8 802 740 48.69% 27.06% 24.25%+0.39 +15.7 24
1976-05-08 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-235.8 740 802 24.25% 27.06% 48.69%-0.39 -15.7 20
1976-05-08 Avenir Beggen D 3-361.5 910 745 59.20% 26.04% 14.76%+0.87 -1.8 30
1976-05-08 @ Differdange 03 D 3-361.5 745 910 14.76% 26.04% 59.20%-0.87 +1.9 20
1976-05-08 Union Luxembourg W 6-033.8 758 699 48.32% 27.08% 24.59%+0.37 +44.1 25
1976-05-08 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-633.8 699 758 24.59% 27.08% 48.32%-0.37 -44.1 17
1976-05-08 Progres Niedercorn L 2-552.7 908 704 62.30% 25.49% 12.21%+1.04 -35.9 34
1976-05-08 @ Jeunesse Esch W 5-252.7 704 908 12.21% 25.49% 62.30%-1.04 +35.9 22
1976-05-08 Fola Esch W 2-030.0 794 501 68.23% 23.90% 7.87%+1.45 +5.7 25
1976-05-08 @ Rumelange L 0-230.0 501 794 7.87% 23.90% 68.23%-1.45 -5.7 8
1976-05-08 Chiers Rodange W 4-252.9 637 773 23.08% 26.82% 50.10%-0.54 +21.3 18
1976-05-08 @ Stade Dudelange L 2-452.9 773 637 50.10% 26.82% 23.08%+0.54 -21.3 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1976-04-30 11.54% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 693 4 Jeunesse Esch 973 0
2 1976-05-08 12.21% Progres Niedercorn 704 5 @ Jeunesse Esch 908 2
3 1975-10-05 12.95% Alliance Dudelange 707 3 @ Chiers Rodange 899 2
4 1976-04-11 13.72% Alliance Dudelange 743 2 @ Differdange 03 923 1
5 1975-09-14 18.66% Etzella Ettelbruck 752 2 @ Chiers Rodange 870 1
6 1976-03-21 19.23% @ Avenir Beggen 680 3 Chiers Rodange 856 0
7 1975-10-05 19.29% Avenir Beggen 663 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 774 1
8 1975-12-13 21.55% @ Fola Esch 609 1 Aris Bonnevoie 760 0
9 1975-09-14 21.77% Progres Niedercorn 688 2 @ Union Luxembourg 774 0
10 1976-05-08 23.08% @ Stade Dudelange 637 4 Chiers Rodange 773 2
11 1975-11-22 23.58% @ Fola Esch 563 3 Avenir Beggen 695 0
12 1975-11-15 23.87% @ Differdange 03 774 5 Chiers Rodange 903 0
13 1976-01-10 24.07% Avenir Beggen 682 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 745 1
14 1976-04-03 25.57% Aris Bonnevoie 704 5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 754 0
15 1975-11-22 25.64% @ Progres Niedercorn 660 1 Aris Bonnevoie 773 0
16 1976-04-30 25.96% Aris Bonnevoie 764 3 @ Chiers Rodange 811 0
17 1975-11-08 26.50% Rumelange 706 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 749 1
18 1975-11-22 28.24% @ Alliance Dudelange 746 3 Differdange 03 838 2
19 1976-03-20 28.36% Union Luxembourg 656 3 @ Stade Dudelange 684 0
20 1975-09-20 28.73% Differdange 03 741 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 766 0
21 1975-09-06 29.55% @ Jeunesse Esch 818 4 Chiers Rodange 899 1
22 1976-01-17 29.76% Etzella Ettelbruck 720 3 @ Alliance Dudelange 736 2
23 1975-11-30 29.87% @ Aris Bonnevoie 759 2 Chiers Rodange 839 1
24 1975-09-20 29.99% Union Luxembourg 745 1 @ Rumelange 760 0
25 1976-01-17 30.01% @ Union Luxembourg 675 1 Rumelange 753 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-04-30 65.21 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 4 693 11.54% Jeunesse Esch 0 973 63.55% 24.92%
2 1975-11-15 63.43 @ Differdange 03 5 774 23.87% Chiers Rodange 0 903 49.25% 26.88%
3 1976-04-03 61.34 Aris Bonnevoie 5 704 25.57% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 754 47.30% 27.13%
4 1975-09-14 44.10 Stade Dudelange 4 674 31.88% @ Fola Esch 0 674 40.81% 27.31%
5 1976-05-08 44.07 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 6 758 48.32% Union Luxembourg 0 699 24.59% 27.08%
6 1976-03-21 43.03 @ Avenir Beggen 3 680 19.23% Chiers Rodange 0 856 54.34% 26.44%
7 1975-09-07 41.35 @ Rumelange 4 706 35.18% Avenir Beggen 0 746 37.51% 27.31%
8 1975-11-22 39.62 @ Fola Esch 3 563 23.58% Avenir Beggen 0 695 49.56% 26.86%
9 1975-09-07 38.20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 4 714 39.03% Progres Niedercorn 0 727 33.65% 27.32%
10 1976-04-30 37.82 Aris Bonnevoie 3 764 25.96% @ Chiers Rodange 0 811 46.90% 27.15%
11 1976-03-20 36.13 Union Luxembourg 3 656 28.36% @ Stade Dudelange 0 684 44.41% 27.24%
12 1976-05-08 35.90 Progres Niedercorn 5 704 12.21% @ Jeunesse Esch 2 908 62.30% 25.49%
13 1976-01-31 33.86 Progres Niedercorn 4 673 44.15% @ Fola Esch 0 585 28.69% 27.15%
14 1976-03-14 32.98 Alliance Dudelange 3 698 33.08% @ Union Luxembourg 0 689 39.60% 27.32%
15 1976-01-24 31.79 Rumelange 3 740 34.95% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 718 37.72% 27.32%
16 1975-09-06 29.80 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 818 29.55% Chiers Rodange 1 899 43.26% 27.19%
17 1976-01-24 29.75 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 5 731 54.67% Fola Esch 0 615 18.72% 26.61%
18 1975-09-28 28.91 Aris Bonnevoie 4 741 31.08% @ Rumelange 1 747 41.63% 27.30%
19 1975-09-20 28.41 Chiers Rodange 4 855 50.26% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 717 22.93% 26.81%
20 1975-09-14 28.19 Progres Niedercorn 2 688 21.77% @ Union Luxembourg 0 774 51.33% 26.90%
21 1975-09-07 26.58 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 718 43.12% Fola Esch 0 701 29.62% 27.27%
22 1975-10-05 25.58 Avenir Beggen 3 663 19.29% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 774 54.03% 26.68%
23 1975-09-20 24.70 Differdange 03 2 741 28.73% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 766 44.03% 27.25%
24 1975-09-13 24.29 Jeunesse Esch 3 848 46.59% @ Alliance Dudelange 0 740 26.37% 27.04%
25 1975-11-08 23.47 @ Alliance Dudelange 6 723 55.83% Fola Esch 1 594 17.68% 26.49%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-09-06 63.1 @ Stade Dudelange 4 673 31.43% Alliance Dudelange 4 741 41.32% 27.24%
2 1976-05-08 61.5 @ Differdange 03 3 910 59.20% Avenir Beggen 3 745 14.76% 26.04%
3 1975-10-05 59.2 Alliance Dudelange 3 707 12.95% @ Chiers Rodange 2 899 61.39% 25.67%
4 1976-03-14 57.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 973 61.05% Rumelange 2 786 13.22% 25.73%
5 1975-11-15 57.4 @ Stade Dudelange 2 720 16.25% Jeunesse Esch 2 931 57.75% 26.00%
6 1976-01-24 57.4 @ Chiers Rodange 2 839 57.97% Union Luxembourg 2 688 15.81% 26.22%
7 1975-09-28 57.3 @ Fola Esch 2 616 20.74% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 775 52.66% 26.61%
8 1975-11-22 57.2 @ Chiers Rodange 2 840 52.42% Rumelange 2 745 20.76% 26.82%
9 1975-10-26 57.1 @ Alliance Dudelange 2 723 39.22% Union Luxembourg 2 734 33.45% 27.32%
10 1976-01-10 57.1 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 673 40.58% Union Luxembourg 2 675 32.11% 27.31%
11 1976-04-03 57.1 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 693 28.04% Rumelange 2 787 44.83% 27.13%
12 1976-04-11 57.1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 765 49.74% Progres Niedercorn 2 694 23.26% 27.00%
13 1975-11-22 54.7 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 746 28.24% Differdange 03 2 838 44.63% 27.13%
14 1976-01-17 54.2 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 720 29.76% @ Alliance Dudelange 2 736 42.97% 27.27%
15 1976-04-11 54.0 Alliance Dudelange 2 743 13.72% @ Differdange 03 1 923 60.45% 25.84%
16 1976-01-24 53.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 662 32.04% Alliance Dudelange 2 725 40.70% 27.26%
17 1976-05-08 52.9 @ Stade Dudelange 4 637 23.08% Chiers Rodange 2 773 50.10% 26.82%
18 1976-01-24 52.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 979 67.73% Avenir Beggen 1 695 8.21% 24.07%
19 1976-05-08 52.7 Progres Niedercorn 5 704 12.21% @ Jeunesse Esch 2 908 62.30% 25.49%
20 1975-09-14 52.6 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 752 18.66% @ Chiers Rodange 1 870 54.74% 26.61%
21 1975-11-30 52.3 @ Differdange 03 1 826 63.73% Fola Esch 1 603 11.10% 25.18%
22 1975-12-06 51.9 @ Avenir Beggen 1 679 22.37% Differdange 03 1 822 50.86% 26.76%
23 1976-01-10 51.8 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 718 25.92% Chiers Rodange 1 830 47.06% 27.02%
24 1976-02-01 51.8 @ Differdange 03 1 867 26.39% Jeunesse Esch 1 975 46.56% 27.04%
25 1975-09-07 51.7 @ Differdange 03 1 754 38.06% Union Luxembourg 1 773 34.61% 27.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-10-26 28.8 Chiers Rodange 4 883 62.98% @ Fola Esch 0 610 11.97% 25.05%
2 1976-01-10 29.3 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 972 63.84% Alliance Dudelange 0 748 11.01% 25.15%
3 1976-04-11 29.3 @ Avenir Beggen 5 724 61.86% Fola Esch 0 526 12.57% 25.58%
4 1976-05-08 30.0 @ Rumelange 2 794 68.23% Fola Esch 0 501 7.87% 23.90%
5 1975-11-22 31.0 Jeunesse Esch 4 929 55.61% @ Union Luxembourg 0 741 18.10% 26.29%
6 1975-09-20 31.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 6 872 65.06% Fola Esch 1 630 10.09% 24.85%
7 1975-11-30 31.3 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 952 63.86% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 727 11.00% 25.15%
8 1976-01-24 31.4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 5 731 54.67% Fola Esch 0 615 18.72% 26.61%
9 1976-04-03 32.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 967 69.77% Stade Dudelange 0 648 6.89% 23.34%
10 1976-03-20 32.4 @ Differdange 03 7 886 59.53% Progres Niedercorn 1 717 14.48% 25.99%
11 1975-09-20 32.6 Chiers Rodange 4 855 50.26% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 717 22.93% 26.81%
12 1976-01-17 32.9 @ Chiers Rodange 2 828 58.33% Progres Niedercorn 0 673 15.50% 26.17%
13 1975-09-28 33.1 Jeunesse Esch 2 886 57.86% @ Avenir Beggen 0 675 16.15% 25.99%
14 1975-10-26 33.7 Jeunesse Esch 2 906 55.57% @ Rumelange 0 719 18.14% 26.29%
15 1976-05-08 33.8 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 6 758 48.32% Union Luxembourg 0 699 24.59% 27.08%
16 1976-03-21 33.9 Alliance Dudelange 2 731 55.07% @ Fola Esch 0 548 18.57% 26.35%
17 1975-11-08 34.0 @ Alliance Dudelange 6 723 55.83% Fola Esch 1 594 17.68% 26.49%
18 1976-01-17 34.3 @ Differdange 03 2 838 53.66% Aris Bonnevoie 0 732 19.63% 26.71%
19 1976-04-30 34.4 Differdange 03 3 906 71.13% @ Fola Esch 1 505 6.38% 22.49%
20 1975-09-13 34.5 Jeunesse Esch 3 848 46.59% @ Alliance Dudelange 0 740 26.37% 27.04%
21 1976-01-31 34.5 Progres Niedercorn 4 673 44.15% @ Fola Esch 0 585 28.69% 27.15%
22 1976-01-10 34.9 @ Stade Dudelange 2 711 51.58% Fola Esch 0 624 21.53% 26.88%
23 1975-09-07 35.6 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 718 43.12% Fola Esch 0 701 29.62% 27.27%
24 1975-09-27 35.8 Chiers Rodange 2 883 48.73% @ Union Luxembourg 0 758 24.36% 26.92%
25 1976-01-24 35.8 Differdange 03 2 852 48.87% @ Stade Dudelange 0 726 24.22% 26.91%