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1976-77 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Progres Niedercorn

8.72 points above expected

32 points · 23.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FC Red Black Pfaffenthal

8.65 points below expected

14 points · 22.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 16 2 4 34 42 21 +21 25.42 +8.58
2 Progres Niedercorn 22 15 2 5 32 50 31 +19 23.28 +8.72
3 Differdange 03 22 11 5 6 27 45 34 +11 24.34 +2.66
4 Stade Dudelange 22 11 2 9 24 46 34 +12 23.35 +0.65
5 Avenir Beggen 22 8 6 8 22 35 40 -5 19.61 +2.39
6 Chiers Rodange 22 8 4 10 20 26 27 -1 20.65 -0.65
7 Alliance Dudelange 22 8 4 10 20 30 33 -3 21.21 -1.21
8 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 6 8 8 20 40 46 -6 21.57 -1.57
9 Rumelange 22 6 7 9 19 29 29 0 21.31 -2.31
10 Grevenmacher 22 8 2 12 18 32 43 -11 21.83 -3.83
11 Aris Bonnevoie 22 5 4 13 14 26 41 -15 18.78 -4.78
12 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 22 5 4 13 14 31 53 -22 22.65 -8.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Progres Niedercorn 32 23.28 +8.72
2 Jeunesse Esch 34 25.42 +8.58
3 Differdange 03 27 24.34 +2.66
4 Avenir Beggen 22 19.61 +2.39
5 Stade Dudelange 24 23.35 +0.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 14 22.65 -8.65
2 Aris Bonnevoie 14 18.78 -4.78
3 Grevenmacher 18 21.83 -3.83
4 Rumelange 19 21.31 -2.31
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 20 21.57 -1.57

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 10 Dec 19 – May 14 1 in 1,074
2 Progres Niedercorn 7 Mar 5 – May 14 1 in 146
3 Avenir Beggen 4 Mar 26 – May 14 1 in 84
4 Alliance Dudelange 4 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 76
5 Stade Dudelange 3 Oct 3 – Oct 24 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stade Dudelange 5 Mar 13 – Apr 16 1 in 1,899
2 Grevenmacher 5 Sep 26 – Oct 31 1 in 395
3 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 5 Nov 6 – Dec 11 1 in 65
4 Alliance Dudelange 4 Dec 19 – Mar 10 1 in 59
5 Chiers Rodange 4 Feb 13 – Mar 17 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 13 Nov 20 – May 14 1 in 153
2 Alliance Dudelange 7 Sep 26 – Nov 14 1 in 36
3 Chiers Rodange 6 Sep 26 – Nov 6 1 in 24
4 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 4 Dec 18 – Mar 5 1 in 18
5 Progres Niedercorn 7 Mar 5 – May 14 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stade Dudelange 5 Mar 13 – Apr 16 1 in 71
2 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 6 Sep 5 – Oct 23 1 in 55
3 Alliance Dudelange 9 Dec 19 – May 7 1 in 53
4 Grevenmacher 6 Sep 11 – Oct 31 1 in 52
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 Nov 6 – Dec 18 1 in 28

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1021 34 +56 10 6.5 +3.5
Progres Niedercorn 993 32 +83 10 6.2 +3.8
Differdange 03 965 27 +4 6 5.7 +0.3
Stade Dudelange 876 24 -47 4 5.6 -1.6
Avenir Beggen 863 22 +54 8 4.1 +3.9
Chiers Rodange 853 20 +27 6 4.6 +1.4
Etzella Ettelbruck 845 20 -27 4 4.2 -0.2
Alliance Dudelange 828 20 -17 2 3.9 -1.9
Rumelange 884 19 -14 4 4.8 -0.8
Grevenmacher 838 18 -40 2 4.5 -2.5
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 813 14 -29 3 5.1 -2.1
Aris Bonnevoie 791 14 -48 1 4.7 -3.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB AB CR D0 EE FRBP GRE JE PN RUM SD
Alliance Dudelange —
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
3.24
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.55
Aris Bonnevoie
0-1-1
2.41
 —
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
1.83
0-2-0
2.40
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
2.57
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.48
Avenir Beggen
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.83
 —
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.96
0-2-0
2.35
2-0-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.28
0-0-2
2.46
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.16
Chiers Rodange
0-0-2
2.74
0-1-1
2.90
1-0-1
3.10
 —
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.69
2-0-0
2.22
Differdange 03
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.64
1-1-0
3.47
 —
1-0-1
3.11
0-2-0
3.02
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
3.26
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-2
3.14
Etzella Ettelbruck
0-1-1
2.98
0-2-0
3.20
0-2-0
3.26
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.49
 —
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.44
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.78
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
2.89
0-1-1
3.03
0-2-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.85
 —
0-0-2
2.77
0-0-2
2.58
0-0-2
2.77
1-1-0
2.89
0-0-2
2.62
Grevenmacher
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.74
0-0-2
3.16
2-0-0
2.83
 —
0-0-2
2.49
0-0-2
2.28
0-1-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.28
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
3.50
2-0-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.32
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
3.00
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
3.11
 —
1-0-1
3.07
1-1-0
3.37
1-0-1
2.99
Progres Niedercorn
2-0-0
2.71
1-0-1
3.26
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.34
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.53
 —
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.60
Rumelange
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.72
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
2.24
0-1-1
2.77
 —
1-0-1
2.61
Stade Dudelange
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.13
0-1-1
3.44
0-0-2
3.38
2-0-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
2.98
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
3.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.63 +6.1
Allowed 0.47 -4.8
Differential 0.90 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%5.68%6.44%4.17%2.65%0.76%23.48%
15.68%6.82%7.58%3.03%1.52%0.76%25.38%
26.44%7.58%6.82%4.17%2.27%0.76%28.03%
34.17%3.03%4.17%1.52%0.76%—13.64%
42.65%1.52%2.27%0.76%——7.20%
5+0.76%0.76%0.76%———2.27%
Total23.48%25.38%28.03%13.64%7.20%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 2.05
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%——4.55%—22.73%
14.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
29.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%——40.91%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%22.73%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.50 -0.14
SD 0.95 1.19 1.58
CV 0.70 0.79 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
3———————
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.86 -0.68
SD 1.18 1.61 2.25
CV 1.00 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%——18.18%——22.73%
113.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total27.27%9.09%27.27%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.82 -0.23
SD 1.33 1.37 1.95
CV 0.84 0.75 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%9.09%———36.36%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
218.18%9.09%————27.27%
3——4.55%4.55%4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%31.82%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.23 -0.05
SD 1.10 1.15 1.36
CV 0.93 0.94 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
14.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
2—18.18%4.55%4.55%9.09%—36.36%
39.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%31.82%22.73%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.55 +0.50
SD 1.33 1.26 1.79
CV 0.65 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%4.55%—13.64%
1—13.64%4.55%——4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
4——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.09 -0.27
SD 1.14 1.31 1.83
CV 0.63 0.62 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%—4.55%13.64%
19.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%54.55%
2——4.55%4.55%—4.55%13.64%
3—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%22.73%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.41 -1.00
SD 1.05 1.68 2.07
CV 0.75 0.70 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%—36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%18.18%————22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.95 -0.50
SD 1.34 1.43 2.30
CV 0.92 0.73 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—13.64%—4.55%—27.27%
113.64%—————13.64%
24.55%18.18%————22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
49.09%—4.55%———13.64%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total40.91%31.82%22.73%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.95 +0.95
SD 1.57 1.05 2.06
CV 0.82 1.10 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%—4.55%—13.64%
1—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
213.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
39.09%—22.73%———31.82%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%13.64%40.91%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.41 +0.86
SD 1.32 1.18 2.05
CV 0.58 0.84 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%———18.18%
19.09%13.64%18.18%9.09%——50.00%
24.55%—9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%13.64%36.36%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.04 1.21 1.75
CV 0.79 0.92 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
1—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
3——4.55%———4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total18.18%27.27%40.91%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.55 +0.55
SD 2.04 1.06 2.72
CV 0.98 0.68 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1021 34 25.42 +8.58 99.0% 13 18 23 26 28 32 35
Progres Niedercorn 993 32 23.28 +8.72 100.0% 13 16 21 23 26 30 32
Differdange 03 965 27 24.34 +2.66 79.0% 15 17 22 24 27 30 34
Rumelange 884 19 21.31 -2.31 38.0% 8 13 18 21 25 28 32
Stade Dudelange 876 24 23.35 +0.65 61.0% 14 16 20 23 27 30 35
Avenir Beggen 863 22 19.61 +2.39 73.0% 8 12 17 19 23 27 31
Chiers Rodange 853 20 20.65 -0.65 44.0% 11 13 17 21 23 29 31
Etzella Ettelbruck 845 20 21.57 -1.57 43.0% 13 15 19 22 24 28 32
Grevenmacher 838 18 21.83 -3.83 23.0% 9 13 19 22 25 29 33
Alliance Dudelange 828 20 21.21 -1.21 38.0% 10 14 19 21 24 28 31
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 813 14 22.65 -8.65 1.0% 14 16 20 22 25 30 33
Aris Bonnevoie 791 14 18.78 -4.78 15.0% 8 12 16 19 21 25 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.42%
Strong Edge
49.24%18.94%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 61.16 Elo pts.
701 Elo
0.001 goals per Elo point
02000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
26%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.41 * Some Luck: 3.41 to 5.11 * Lucky: 5.11 to 6.81 * Wild Swing: 6.81 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.4 * Close: 2.4 to 3.6 * Off: 3.6 to 4.79 * Way Off: 4.79 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.87 points
Some Luck
04.2611
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.50
Close
03.006
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Progres Niedercorn
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 73.16
1.49
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Rare
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.38
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.26
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.28
Overconfident
0.06172641.001.93827
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.122
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch26.00%13.00%18.00%11.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%
Progres Niedercorn13.00%13.00%8.00%12.00%8.00%16.00%8.00%5.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%
Differdange 0311.00%13.00%18.00%13.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%4.00%
Stade Dudelange13.00%15.00%10.00%7.00%11.00%6.00%9.00%7.00%8.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%
Avenir Beggen2.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%16.00%17.00%
Chiers Rodange3.00%7.00%4.00%8.00%11.00%10.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%6.00%14.00%12.00%
Alliance Dudelange3.00%3.00%8.00%6.00%14.00%8.00%9.00%16.00%11.00%12.00%3.00%7.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck8.00%7.00%3.00%10.00%6.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%7.00%9.00%11.00%6.00%
Rumelange7.00%8.00%11.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%8.00%
Grevenmacher3.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%9.00%8.00%10.00%6.00%9.00%
Aris Bonnevoie2.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%3.00%6.00%6.00%7.00%14.00%11.00%20.00%23.00%
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal9.00%7.00%6.00%9.00%10.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%11.00%8.00%8.00%5.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Jeunesse Esch 97.00% 3.00%
Differdange 03 94.00% 6.00%
Stade Dudelange 94.00% 6.00%
Progres Niedercorn 92.00% 8.00%
Alliance Dudelange 90.00% 10.00%
FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 87.00% 13.00%
Grevenmacher 85.00% 15.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 83.00% 17.00%
Rumelange 80.00% 20.00%
Chiers Rodange 74.00% 26.00%
Avenir Beggen 67.00% 33.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 57.00% 43.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1976-09-04 Avenir Beggen W 4-242.0 900 854 57.50% 19.87% 22.63%+0.15 +8.2 2
1976-09-04 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-442.0 854 900 22.63% 19.87% 57.50%-0.15 -8.2 0
1976-09-05 Rumelange W 2-141.7 880 873 53.00% 20.00% 27.00%+0.10 +6.1 2
1976-09-05 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-241.7 873 880 27.00% 20.00% 53.00%-0.10 -6.1 0
1976-09-05 Alliance Dudelange L 1-249.6 853 844 53.32% 19.99% 26.68%+0.10 -10.8 0
1976-09-05 @ Chiers Rodange W 2-149.6 844 853 26.68% 19.99% 53.32%-0.10 +10.8 2
1976-09-05 Grevenmacher L 1-445.0 974 939 56.29% 19.91% 23.79%+0.14 -27.9 0
1976-09-05 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 4-145.0 939 974 23.79% 19.91% 56.29%-0.14 +27.9 2
1976-09-05 Differdange 03 W 3-250.1 844 914 43.10% 20.09% 36.82%-0.01 +7.5 2
1976-09-05 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-350.1 914 844 36.82% 20.09% 43.10%+0.01 -7.5 0
1976-09-05 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-249.3 822 873 45.69% 20.09% 34.23%+0.01 +7.1 2
1976-09-05 @ Stade Dudelange L 2-349.3 873 822 34.23% 20.09% 45.69%-0.01 -7.1 0
1976-09-11 Grevenmacher D 2-259.3 845 967 35.83% 20.02% 44.15%-0.09 +0.3 1
1976-09-11 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-259.3 967 845 44.15% 20.02% 35.83%+0.09 -0.3 3
1976-09-11 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-030.3 908 886 54.80% 19.96% 25.24%+0.12 +16.8 4
1976-09-11 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-330.3 886 908 25.24% 19.96% 54.80%-0.12 -16.8 2
1976-09-12 Progres Niedercorn L 2-354.8 855 852 52.59% 20.01% 27.40%+0.09 -10.2 2
1976-09-12 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-254.8 852 855 27.40% 20.01% 52.59%-0.09 +10.1 4
1976-09-12 Stade Dudelange L 2-453.4 907 829 60.68% 19.73% 19.59%+0.20 -19.0 0
1976-09-12 @ Differdange 03 W 4-253.4 829 907 19.59% 19.73% 60.68%-0.20 +19.0 4
1976-09-12 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 2-145.1 866 946 41.69% 20.08% 38.23%-0.03 +8.2 2
1976-09-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-245.1 946 866 38.23% 20.08% 41.69%+0.03 -8.2 0
1976-09-12 Chiers Rodange W 1-036.0 867 842 55.18% 19.95% 24.88%+0.12 +6.1 2
1976-09-12 @ Rumelange L 0-136.0 842 867 24.88% 19.95% 55.18%-0.12 -6.1 0
1976-09-25 Avenir Beggen L 0-145.1 869 846 55.01% 19.95% 25.04%+0.12 -11.8 2
1976-09-25 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 1-045.1 846 869 25.04% 19.95% 55.01%-0.12 +11.8 3
1976-09-26 Jeunesse Esch W 2-036.9 836 925 40.47% 20.07% 39.46%-0.04 +16.7 2
1976-09-26 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-236.9 925 836 39.46% 20.07% 40.47%+0.04 -16.7 4
1976-09-26 Differdange 03 D 2-259.4 938 888 57.92% 19.85% 22.22%+0.16 -1.3 1
1976-09-26 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal D 2-259.4 888 938 22.22% 19.85% 57.92%-0.16 +1.3 1
1976-09-26 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-243.6 966 874 62.10% 19.65% 18.25%+0.22 -25.1 3
1976-09-26 @ Grevenmacher W 2-043.6 874 966 18.25% 19.65% 62.10%-0.22 +25.1 4
1976-09-26 Rumelange W 2-033.8 862 873 50.84% 20.04% 29.12%+0.07 +13.1 6
1976-09-26 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-233.8 873 862 29.12% 20.04% 50.84%-0.07 -13.1 2
1976-09-26 Alliance Dudelange L 0-240.9 848 845 52.67% 20.01% 27.32%+0.09 -21.4 4
1976-09-26 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-040.9 845 848 27.32% 20.01% 52.67%-0.09 +21.4 4
1976-10-02 Chiers Rodange D 0-049.8 857 853 52.75% 20.01% 27.24%+0.09 -1.4 3
1976-10-02 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 0-049.8 853 857 27.24% 20.01% 52.75%-0.09 +1.4 3
1976-10-02 Etzella Ettelbruck D 3-363.9 857 899 46.89% 20.08% 33.03%+0.03 -0.4 4
1976-10-02 @ Avenir Beggen D 3-363.9 899 857 33.03% 20.08% 46.89%-0.03 +0.4 5
1976-10-03 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 3-250.1 866 936 43.05% 20.09% 36.87%-0.01 +7.5 6
1976-10-03 @ Alliance Dudelange L 2-350.1 936 866 36.87% 20.09% 43.05%+0.01 -7.5 1
1976-10-03 Grevenmacher W 3-033.1 889 941 45.48% 20.09% 34.43%+0.01 +21.8 3
1976-10-03 @ Differdange 03 L 0-333.1 941 889 34.43% 20.09% 45.48%-0.01 -21.8 3
1976-10-03 Progres Niedercorn L 0-241.9 908 875 56.03% 19.92% 24.05%+0.13 -22.7 4
1976-10-03 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-041.9 875 908 24.05% 19.92% 56.03%-0.13 +22.7 8
1976-10-03 Stade Dudelange L 1-250.4 860 827 56.11% 19.92% 23.97%+0.13 -11.4 2
1976-10-03 @ Rumelange W 2-150.4 827 860 23.97% 19.92% 56.11%-0.13 +11.4 6
1976-10-09 Differdange 03 W 3-031.5 900 911 50.88% 20.04% 29.08%+0.07 +18.9 7
1976-10-09 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-331.5 911 900 29.08% 20.04% 50.88%-0.07 -18.9 3
1976-10-10 Avenir Beggen W 2-142.0 854 857 51.90% 20.02% 28.07%+0.08 +6.3 5
1976-10-10 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-242.0 857 854 28.07% 20.02% 51.90%-0.08 -6.3 4
1976-10-10 Rumelange D 1-153.8 929 849 60.93% 19.71% 19.36%+0.20 -2.1 2
1976-10-10 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal D 1-153.8 849 929 19.36% 19.71% 60.93%-0.20 +2.1 3
1976-10-10 Alliance Dudelange L 0-242.3 919 874 57.46% 19.87% 22.66%+0.15 -23.3 3
1976-10-10 @ Grevenmacher W 2-042.3 874 919 22.66% 19.87% 57.46%-0.15 +23.3 8
1976-10-10 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-439.2 898 856 57.06% 19.89% 23.05%+0.15 -43.9 8
1976-10-10 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-039.2 856 898 23.05% 19.89% 57.06%-0.15 +43.8 5
1976-10-10 Jeunesse Esch W 2-035.2 838 885 46.24% 20.08% 33.68%+0.02 +14.7 8
1976-10-10 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-235.2 885 838 33.68% 20.08% 46.24%-0.02 -14.7 4
1976-10-23 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 1-039.1 870 927 44.95% 20.09% 34.96%+0.01 +8.0 6
1976-10-23 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-139.1 927 870 34.96% 20.09% 44.95%-0.01 -8.0 2
1976-10-24 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-031.9 897 919 49.52% 20.06% 30.42%+0.06 +19.7 10
1976-10-24 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-331.9 919 897 30.42% 20.06% 49.52%-0.06 -19.7 7
1976-10-24 Stade Dudelange L 0-741.6 900 853 57.57% 19.87% 22.56%+0.15 -74.9 5
1976-10-24 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 7-041.6 853 900 22.56% 19.87% 57.57%-0.15 +74.9 10
1976-10-24 Progres Niedercorn W 2-033.2 861 854 53.04% 20.00% 26.96%+0.10 +12.2 7
1976-10-24 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-233.2 854 861 26.96% 20.00% 53.04%-0.10 -12.2 8
1976-10-24 Avenir Beggen W 3-029.6 892 851 56.96% 19.89% 23.15%+0.15 +15.6 5
1976-10-24 @ Differdange 03 L 0-329.6 851 892 23.15% 19.89% 56.96%-0.15 -15.6 4
1976-10-24 Grevenmacher W 4-032.1 851 896 46.46% 20.08% 33.46%+0.02 +27.8 5
1976-10-24 @ Rumelange L 0-432.1 896 851 33.46% 20.08% 46.46%-0.02 -27.8 3
1976-10-30 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-033.9 918 825 62.25% 19.64% 18.12%+0.22 +4.6 4
1976-10-30 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal L 0-133.9 825 918 18.12% 19.64% 62.25%-0.22 -4.6 5
1976-10-31 Progres Niedercorn L 2-354.5 835 842 51.41% 20.03% 28.56%+0.08 -9.9 4
1976-10-31 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-254.5 842 835 28.56% 20.03% 51.41%-0.08 +9.9 10
1976-10-31 Alliance Dudelange D 0-049.8 907 917 51.08% 20.04% 28.88%+0.07 -1.2 6
1976-10-31 @ Differdange 03 D 0-049.8 917 907 28.88% 20.04% 51.08%-0.07 +1.2 11
1976-10-31 Rumelange W 3-138.3 899 879 54.62% 19.96% 25.42%+0.12 +10.1 9
1976-10-31 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-338.3 879 899 25.42% 19.96% 54.62%-0.12 -10.1 5
1976-10-31 Jeunesse Esch L 0-437.4 868 878 50.99% 20.04% 28.97%+0.07 -39.5 3
1976-10-31 @ Grevenmacher W 4-037.4 878 868 28.97% 20.04% 50.99%-0.07 +39.5 8
1976-10-31 Chiers Rodange L 2-356.5 928 873 58.46% 19.83% 21.71%+0.17 -11.2 10
1976-10-31 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-256.5 873 928 21.71% 19.83% 58.46%-0.17 +11.2 9
1976-11-06 Avenir Beggen D 1-153.8 918 825 62.16% 19.64% 18.20%+0.22 -2.2 12
1976-11-06 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-153.8 825 918 18.20% 19.64% 62.16%-0.22 +2.2 5
1976-11-06 Grevenmacher L 0-143.9 820 829 51.17% 20.04% 28.80%+0.07 -11.1 5
1976-11-06 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 1-043.9 829 820 28.80% 20.04% 51.17%-0.07 +11.1 5
1976-11-06 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 2-143.4 884 923 47.28% 20.08% 32.64%+0.03 +7.2 11
1976-11-06 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-243.4 923 884 32.64% 20.08% 47.28%-0.03 -7.2 4
1976-11-06 Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-134.6 918 909 53.29% 19.99% 26.72%+0.10 +19.2 10
1976-11-06 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-534.6 909 918 26.72% 19.99% 53.29%-0.10 -19.2 9
1976-11-06 Stade Dudelange L 0-238.2 852 917 43.73% 20.09% 36.18%-0.01 -18.2 10
1976-11-06 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-038.2 917 852 36.18% 20.09% 43.73%+0.01 +18.2 12
1976-11-06 Differdange 03 L 1-247.9 869 906 47.49% 20.08% 32.43%+0.03 -9.8 5
1976-11-06 @ Rumelange W 2-147.9 906 869 32.43% 20.08% 47.49%-0.03 +9.8 8
1976-11-13 Progres Niedercorn L 0-540.9 916 834 61.19% 19.70% 19.11%+0.20 -57.8 4
1976-11-13 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 5-040.9 834 916 19.11% 19.70% 61.19%-0.20 +57.8 12
1976-11-14 Rumelange W 2-140.0 916 859 58.62% 19.83% 21.56%+0.17 +5.0 14
1976-11-14 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-240.0 859 916 21.56% 19.83% 58.62%-0.17 -5.0 5
1976-11-14 Stade Dudelange D 2-259.3 827 935 37.72% 20.05% 42.23%-0.07 +0.2 6
1976-11-14 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-259.3 935 827 42.23% 20.05% 37.72%+0.07 -0.2 13
1976-11-14 Jeunesse Esch W 4-031.2 916 937 49.58% 20.06% 30.36%+0.06 +25.6 10
1976-11-14 @ Differdange 03 L 0-431.2 937 916 30.36% 20.06% 49.58%-0.06 -25.7 10
1976-11-14 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-153.8 890 809 61.03% 19.71% 19.26%+0.20 -2.1 10
1976-11-14 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-153.8 809 890 19.26% 19.71% 61.03%-0.20 +2.1 6
1976-11-14 Chiers Rodange W 3-141.0 840 891 45.60% 20.09% 34.32%+0.01 +12.9 7
1976-11-14 @ Grevenmacher L 1-341.0 891 840 34.32% 20.09% 45.60%-0.01 -13.0 11
1976-11-20 Differdange 03 L 1-244.0 811 942 34.61% 20.00% 45.39%-0.10 -7.5 6
1976-11-20 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-144.0 942 811 45.39% 20.00% 34.61%+0.10 +7.5 12
1976-11-20 Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-037.3 878 888 51.08% 20.04% 28.88%+0.07 +6.9 13
1976-11-20 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-137.3 888 878 28.88% 20.04% 51.08%-0.07 -6.9 10
1976-11-20 Alliance Dudelange W 3-139.4 911 921 51.09% 20.04% 28.87%+0.07 +11.2 12
1976-11-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-339.4 921 911 28.87% 20.04% 51.09%-0.07 -11.2 14
1976-11-20 Grevenmacher W 3-246.0 891 853 56.68% 19.90% 23.42%+0.14 +5.1 14
1976-11-20 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-346.0 853 891 23.42% 19.90% 56.68%-0.14 -5.1 7
1976-11-20 Avenir Beggen W 3-030.1 854 828 55.33% 19.94% 24.72%+0.12 +16.5 7
1976-11-20 @ Rumelange L 0-330.1 828 854 24.72% 19.94% 55.33%-0.12 -16.5 6
1976-11-20 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 6-131.7 935 858 60.65% 19.73% 19.62%+0.20 +18.0 15
1976-11-20 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-631.7 858 935 19.62% 19.73% 60.65%-0.20 -18.0 4
1976-12-04 Aris Bonnevoie D 2-259.5 909 804 63.33% 19.57% 17.10%+0.24 -1.8 15
1976-12-04 @ Alliance Dudelange D 2-259.5 804 909 17.10% 19.57% 63.33%-0.24 +1.8 7
1976-12-04 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 3-032.1 811 840 48.58% 20.07% 31.35%+0.05 +20.2 8
1976-12-04 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-332.1 840 811 31.35% 20.07% 48.58%-0.05 -20.2 4
1976-12-04 Chiers Rodange W 2-139.8 949 885 59.35% 19.79% 20.86%+0.18 +4.9 14
1976-12-04 @ Differdange 03 L 1-239.8 885 949 20.86% 19.79% 59.35%-0.18 -4.9 13
1976-12-04 Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.7 881 897 50.29% 20.05% 29.66%+0.06 -1.0 11
1976-12-04 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-153.7 897 881 29.66% 20.05% 50.29%-0.06 +1.0 15
1976-12-04 Stade Dudelange W 2-037.7 848 953 38.07% 20.05% 41.88%-0.06 +17.6 9
1976-12-04 @ Grevenmacher L 0-237.7 953 848 41.88% 20.05% 38.07%+0.06 -17.6 15
1976-12-04 Jeunesse Esch D 0-049.8 870 923 45.50% 20.09% 34.41%+0.01 -0.6 8
1976-12-04 @ Rumelange D 0-049.8 923 870 34.41% 20.09% 45.50%-0.01 +0.6 13
1976-12-11 Chiers Rodange W 1-036.0 908 880 55.43% 19.94% 24.63%+0.13 +6.0 17
1976-12-11 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-136.0 880 908 24.63% 19.94% 55.43%-0.13 -6.0 13
1976-12-11 Jeunesse Esch D 0-049.8 831 923 39.93% 20.07% 40.00%-0.04 +0.0 9
1976-12-11 @ Avenir Beggen D 0-049.8 923 831 40.00% 20.07% 39.93%+0.04 +0.0 14
1976-12-11 Progres Niedercorn W 2-140.0 954 898 58.60% 19.83% 21.57%+0.17 +5.0 16
1976-12-11 @ Differdange 03 L 1-240.0 898 954 21.57% 19.83% 58.60%-0.17 -5.0 15
1976-12-11 Stade Dudelange D 1-153.7 880 935 45.06% 20.09% 34.86%+0.01 -0.5 12
1976-12-11 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-153.7 935 880 34.86% 20.09% 45.06%-0.01 +0.5 16
1976-12-11 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 3-137.5 865 820 57.43% 19.87% 22.69%+0.15 +9.1 11
1976-12-11 @ Grevenmacher L 1-337.5 820 865 22.69% 19.87% 57.43%-0.15 -9.1 4
1976-12-11 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-031.3 870 806 59.41% 19.79% 20.80%+0.18 +9.8 10
1976-12-11 @ Rumelange L 0-231.3 806 870 20.80% 19.79% 59.41%-0.18 -9.8 7
1976-12-18 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-250.1 811 879 43.23% 20.09% 36.68%-0.01 +7.5 6
1976-12-18 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal L 2-350.1 879 811 36.68% 20.09% 43.23%+0.01 -7.5 12
1976-12-19 Jeunesse Esch L 1-341.2 796 923 34.98% 20.00% 45.01%-0.09 -13.1 7
1976-12-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-141.2 923 796 45.01% 20.00% 34.98%+0.09 +13.1 16
1976-12-19 Rumelange D 0-049.8 874 880 51.58% 20.03% 28.39%+0.08 -1.3 14
1976-12-19 @ Chiers Rodange D 0-049.8 880 874 28.39% 20.03% 51.58%-0.08 +1.3 11
1976-12-19 Avenir Beggen W 3-029.6 874 831 57.20% 19.88% 22.92%+0.15 +15.5 13
1976-12-19 @ Grevenmacher L 0-329.6 831 874 22.92% 19.88% 57.20%-0.15 -15.5 9
1976-12-19 Alliance Dudelange W 3-248.2 892 914 49.58% 20.06% 30.36%+0.06 +6.4 17
1976-12-19 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-348.2 914 892 30.36% 20.06% 49.58%-0.06 -6.4 17
1976-12-28 Differdange 03 W 4-244.5 936 959 49.32% 20.06% 30.62%+0.05 +10.5 18
1976-12-28 @ Stade Dudelange L 2-444.5 959 936 30.62% 20.06% 49.32%-0.05 -10.5 16
1977-02-12 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-445.0 816 783 56.09% 19.92% 23.99%+0.13 -27.8 9
1977-02-12 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-145.0 783 816 23.99% 19.92% 56.09%-0.13 +27.8 9
1977-02-13 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal D 1-153.9 948 818 65.42% 19.40% 15.18%+0.27 -2.6 17
1977-02-13 @ Differdange 03 D 1-153.9 818 948 15.18% 19.40% 65.42%-0.27 +2.6 7
1977-02-13 Grevenmacher W 4-244.3 872 890 49.99% 20.05% 29.96%+0.06 +10.4 14
1977-02-13 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-444.3 890 872 29.96% 20.05% 49.99%-0.06 -10.4 13
1977-02-13 Chiers Rodange W 1-034.8 936 873 59.30% 19.80% 20.90%+0.18 +5.2 18
1977-02-13 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.8 873 936 20.90% 19.80% 59.30%-0.18 -5.2 14
1977-02-13 Progres Niedercorn D 2-259.3 881 899 50.00% 20.05% 29.95%+0.06 -0.7 12
1977-02-13 @ Rumelange D 2-259.3 899 881 29.95% 20.05% 50.00%-0.06 +0.7 18
1977-02-26 Avenir Beggen D 2-259.5 882 788 62.31% 19.63% 18.06%+0.22 -1.7 15
1977-02-26 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.5 788 882 18.06% 19.63% 62.31%-0.22 +1.7 10
1977-02-26 Alliance Dudelange W 1-040.4 821 907 40.73% 20.08% 39.20%-0.04 +8.8 9
1977-02-26 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal L 0-140.4 907 821 39.20% 20.08% 40.73%+0.04 -8.8 17
1977-02-26 Differdange 03 L 2-544.6 880 946 43.56% 20.09% 36.35%-0.01 -19.2 13
1977-02-26 @ Grevenmacher W 5-244.6 946 880 36.35% 20.09% 43.56%+0.01 +19.2 19
1977-02-26 Jeunesse Esch L 2-353.1 900 942 46.87% 20.08% 33.05%+0.03 -9.2 18
1977-02-26 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-253.1 942 900 33.05% 20.08% 46.87%-0.03 +9.2 20
1977-03-05 Grevenmacher L 1-347.7 898 860 56.64% 19.90% 23.46%+0.14 -19.9 17
1977-03-05 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-147.7 860 898 23.46% 19.90% 56.64%-0.14 +19.9 15
1977-03-05 Progres Niedercorn L 1-246.1 810 890 41.64% 20.08% 38.28%-0.03 -8.7 9
1977-03-05 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-146.1 890 810 38.28% 20.08% 41.64%+0.03 +8.7 20
1977-03-05 Chiers Rodange W 1-040.0 790 868 41.88% 20.08% 38.04%-0.02 +8.6 12
1977-03-05 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-140.0 868 790 38.04% 20.08% 41.88%+0.02 -8.6 14
1977-03-05 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-240.8 965 881 61.39% 19.69% 18.92%+0.21 +7.0 21
1977-03-05 @ Differdange 03 L 2-440.8 881 965 18.92% 19.69% 61.39%-0.21 -7.0 15
1977-03-05 Stade Dudelange W 2-141.8 951 946 52.76% 20.01% 27.23%+0.09 +6.2 22
1977-03-05 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-241.8 946 951 27.23% 20.01% 52.76%-0.09 -6.2 18
1977-03-05 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal L 1-348.1 880 830 57.98% 19.85% 22.17%+0.16 -20.3 12
1977-03-05 @ Rumelange W 3-148.1 830 880 22.17% 19.85% 57.98%-0.16 +20.3 11
1977-03-10 Stade Dudelange L 0-435.4 879 940 44.21% 20.09% 35.70%+0.00 -34.9 17
1977-03-10 @ Alliance Dudelange W 4-035.4 940 879 35.70% 20.09% 44.21%+0.00 +34.9 20
1977-03-12 Jeunesse Esch L 1-245.0 850 957 37.81% 20.05% 42.14%-0.07 -8.1 11
1977-03-12 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 2-145.0 957 850 42.14% 20.05% 37.81%+0.07 +8.1 24
1977-03-13 Differdange 03 W 1-043.9 798 972 29.01% 19.85% 51.14%-0.16 +11.0 14
1977-03-13 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-143.9 972 798 51.14% 19.85% 29.01%+0.16 -11.0 21
1977-03-13 Alliance Dudelange D 2-259.4 874 844 55.73% 19.93% 24.34%+0.13 -1.2 16
1977-03-13 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.4 844 874 24.34% 19.93% 55.73%-0.13 +1.2 18
1977-03-13 Rumelange D 1-153.7 880 860 54.63% 19.96% 25.40%+0.12 -1.4 16
1977-03-13 @ Grevenmacher D 1-153.7 860 880 25.40% 19.96% 54.63%-0.12 +1.4 13
1977-03-13 Chiers Rodange W 2-032.0 899 859 56.84% 19.89% 23.27%+0.14 +10.8 22
1977-03-13 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-232.0 859 899 23.27% 19.89% 56.84%-0.14 -10.8 14
1977-03-13 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-148.9 975 802 68.66% 19.07% 12.27%+0.33 -14.7 20
1977-03-13 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-048.9 802 975 12.27% 19.07% 68.66%-0.33 +14.7 11
1977-03-17 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-241.8 849 816 55.97% 19.92% 24.11%+0.13 -22.7 14
1977-03-17 @ Chiers Rodange W 2-041.8 816 849 24.11% 19.92% 55.97%-0.13 +22.7 13
1977-03-17 Rumelange L 0-341.4 960 861 62.73% 19.61% 17.66%+0.23 -36.8 20
1977-03-17 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-041.4 861 960 17.66% 19.61% 62.73%-0.23 +36.8 15
1977-03-19 Differdange 03 L 0-139.5 845 961 36.53% 20.03% 43.44%-0.08 -8.3 18
1977-03-19 @ Alliance Dudelange W 1-039.5 961 845 43.44% 20.03% 36.53%+0.08 +8.3 23
1977-03-19 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal L 1-443.7 839 842 51.89% 20.02% 28.09%+0.08 -25.9 13
1977-03-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-143.7 842 839 28.09% 20.02% 51.89%-0.08 +25.9 13
1977-03-19 Stade Dudelange W 2-037.3 826 923 39.12% 20.06% 40.81%-0.05 +17.2 16
1977-03-19 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-237.3 923 826 40.81% 20.06% 39.12%+0.05 -17.2 20
1977-03-19 Grevenmacher W 1-034.1 965 879 61.56% 19.68% 18.76%+0.21 +4.7 26
1977-03-19 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.1 879 965 18.76% 19.68% 61.56%-0.21 -4.7 16
1977-03-19 Avenir Beggen W 3-027.8 910 809 62.89% 19.60% 17.52%+0.23 +12.2 24
1977-03-19 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-327.8 809 910 17.52% 19.60% 62.89%-0.23 -12.2 14
1977-03-19 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.4 898 872 55.26% 19.94% 24.80%+0.12 -1.1 16
1977-03-19 @ Rumelange D 2-259.4 872 898 24.80% 19.94% 55.26%-0.12 +1.1 17
1977-03-26 Alliance Dudelange W 2-143.4 797 837 47.21% 20.08% 32.71%+0.03 +7.2 16
1977-03-26 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-243.4 837 797 32.71% 20.08% 47.21%-0.03 -7.2 18
1977-03-26 Rumelange D 1-153.8 969 897 60.21% 19.75% 20.04%+0.19 -2.0 24
1977-03-26 @ Differdange 03 D 1-153.8 897 969 20.04% 19.75% 60.21%-0.19 +2.0 17
1977-03-26 Jeunesse Esch L 0-433.9 874 970 39.33% 20.06% 40.60%-0.05 -31.7 17
1977-03-26 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-033.9 970 874 40.60% 20.06% 39.33%+0.05 +31.7 28
1977-03-26 Chiers Rodange D 1-153.7 868 843 55.15% 19.95% 24.90%+0.12 -1.5 14
1977-03-26 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal D 1-153.7 843 868 24.90% 19.95% 55.15%-0.12 +1.5 17
1977-03-26 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-137.0 874 813 59.05% 19.81% 21.15%+0.17 +8.6 18
1977-03-26 @ Grevenmacher L 1-337.0 813 874 21.15% 19.81% 59.05%-0.17 -8.6 13
1977-03-26 Progres Niedercorn L 0-437.2 906 922 50.26% 20.05% 29.69%+0.06 -39.0 20
1977-03-26 @ Stade Dudelange W 4-037.2 922 906 29.69% 20.05% 50.26%-0.06 +39.0 26
1977-04-16 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.3 805 842 47.50% 20.08% 32.43%+0.03 -0.5 14
1977-04-16 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 2-259.3 842 805 32.43% 20.08% 47.50%-0.03 +0.5 18
1977-04-16 Grevenmacher W 2-034.9 845 883 47.39% 20.08% 32.54%+0.03 +14.3 19
1977-04-16 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-234.9 883 845 32.54% 20.08% 47.39%-0.03 -14.3 18
1977-04-16 Differdange 03 W 2-140.7 1001 967 56.20% 19.92% 23.89%+0.14 +5.5 30
1977-04-16 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.7 967 1001 23.89% 19.92% 56.20%-0.14 -5.5 24
1977-04-16 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 4-347.7 961 866 62.36% 19.63% 18.01%+0.22 +4.0 28
1977-04-16 @ Progres Niedercorn L 3-447.7 866 961 18.01% 19.63% 62.36%-0.22 -4.0 14
1977-04-16 Alliance Dudelange W 1-034.6 899 829 59.96% 19.76% 20.28%+0.19 +5.1 19
1977-04-16 @ Rumelange L 0-134.6 829 899 20.28% 19.76% 59.96%-0.19 -5.1 18
1977-04-16 Avenir Beggen L 0-242.8 867 804 59.28% 19.80% 20.93%+0.18 -24.0 20
1977-04-16 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-042.8 804 867 20.93% 19.80% 59.28%-0.18 +24.0 18
1977-05-07 Jeunesse Esch L 1-241.9 824 1007 27.95% 19.81% 52.24%-0.17 -6.3 18
1977-05-07 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-141.9 1007 824 52.24% 19.81% 27.95%+0.17 +6.3 32
1977-05-07 Rumelange W 4-246.6 828 904 42.22% 20.08% 37.70%-0.02 +12.5 20
1977-05-07 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-446.6 904 828 37.70% 20.08% 42.22%+0.02 -12.5 19
1977-05-07 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-242.8 962 804 67.54% 19.20% 13.26%+0.31 +3.1 26
1977-05-07 @ Differdange 03 L 2-342.8 804 962 13.26% 19.20% 67.54%-0.31 -3.1 14
1977-05-07 Chiers Rodange W 4-351.3 842 859 50.20% 20.05% 29.76%+0.06 +6.1 20
1977-05-07 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 3-451.3 859 842 29.76% 20.05% 50.20%-0.06 -6.2 19
1977-05-07 Stade Dudelange L 1-444.5 862 843 54.49% 19.97% 25.55%+0.11 -27.1 14
1977-05-07 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 4-144.5 843 862 25.55% 19.97% 54.49%-0.11 +27.1 22
1977-05-07 Progres Niedercorn L 0-334.5 868 965 39.24% 20.06% 40.70%-0.05 -24.2 18
1977-05-07 @ Grevenmacher W 3-034.5 965 868 40.70% 20.06% 39.24%+0.05 +24.2 30
1977-05-14 Alliance Dudelange L 1-248.6 801 818 50.13% 20.05% 29.82%+0.06 -10.2 14
1977-05-14 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-148.6 818 801 29.82% 20.05% 50.13%-0.06 +10.2 20
1977-05-14 Differdange 03 D 3-363.9 853 965 37.07% 20.04% 42.89%-0.07 +0.2 20
1977-05-14 @ Chiers Rodange D 3-363.9 965 853 42.89% 20.04% 37.07%+0.07 -0.2 27
1977-05-14 Avenir Beggen L 2-547.0 835 841 51.55% 20.03% 28.42%+0.08 -22.3 14
1977-05-14 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal W 5-247.0 841 835 28.42% 20.03% 51.55%-0.08 +22.3 22
1977-05-14 Rumelange W 2-029.7 1013 892 64.70% 19.46% 15.84%+0.26 +7.7 34
1977-05-14 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-229.7 892 1013 15.84% 19.46% 64.70%-0.26 -7.7 19
1977-05-14 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-137.7 989 849 66.25% 19.33% 14.42%+0.29 +3.5 32
1977-05-14 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-237.7 849 989 14.42% 19.33% 66.25%-0.29 -3.5 20
1977-05-14 Grevenmacher W 2-141.0 870 844 55.33% 19.94% 24.73%+0.12 +5.7 24
1977-05-14 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-241.0 844 870 24.73% 19.94% 55.33%-0.12 -5.7 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-03-13 12.27% Aris Bonnevoie 802 1 @ Stade Dudelange 975 0
2 1977-03-17 17.66% Rumelange 861 3 @ Stade Dudelange 960 0
3 1976-09-26 18.25% Etzella Ettelbruck 874 2 @ Grevenmacher 966 0
4 1976-11-13 19.11% Progres Niedercorn 834 5 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 916 0
5 1976-09-12 19.59% Stade Dudelange 829 4 @ Differdange 03 907 2
6 1977-04-16 20.93% Avenir Beggen 804 2 @ Stade Dudelange 867 0
7 1976-10-31 21.71% Chiers Rodange 873 3 @ Stade Dudelange 928 2
8 1977-03-05 22.17% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 830 3 @ Rumelange 880 1
9 1976-10-24 22.56% Stade Dudelange 853 7 @ Aris Bonnevoie 900 0
10 1976-10-10 22.66% Alliance Dudelange 874 2 @ Grevenmacher 919 0
11 1976-10-10 23.05% Aris Bonnevoie 856 4 @ Progres Niedercorn 898 0
12 1977-03-05 23.46% Grevenmacher 860 3 @ Alliance Dudelange 898 1
13 1976-09-05 23.79% Grevenmacher 939 4 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 974 1
14 1976-10-03 23.97% Stade Dudelange 827 2 @ Rumelange 860 1
15 1977-02-12 23.99% Aris Bonnevoie 783 4 @ Avenir Beggen 816 1
16 1976-10-03 24.05% Progres Niedercorn 875 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 908 0
17 1977-03-17 24.11% Aris Bonnevoie 816 2 @ Chiers Rodange 849 0
18 1976-09-25 25.04% Avenir Beggen 846 1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 869 0
19 1977-05-07 25.55% Stade Dudelange 843 4 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 862 1
20 1976-09-05 26.68% Alliance Dudelange 844 2 @ Chiers Rodange 853 1
21 1976-09-26 27.32% Alliance Dudelange 845 2 @ Stade Dudelange 848 0
22 1976-09-12 27.40% Progres Niedercorn 852 3 @ Alliance Dudelange 855 2
23 1977-03-19 28.09% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 842 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 839 1
24 1977-05-14 28.42% Avenir Beggen 841 5 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 835 2
25 1976-10-31 28.56% Progres Niedercorn 842 3 @ Avenir Beggen 835 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-10-24 74.92 Stade Dudelange 7 853 22.56% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 900 57.57% 19.87%
2 1976-11-13 57.84 Progres Niedercorn 5 834 19.11% @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 0 916 61.19% 19.70%
3 1976-10-10 43.85 Aris Bonnevoie 4 856 23.05% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 898 57.06% 19.89%
4 1976-10-31 39.48 Jeunesse Esch 4 878 28.97% @ Grevenmacher 0 868 50.99% 20.04%
5 1977-03-26 38.96 Progres Niedercorn 4 922 29.69% @ Stade Dudelange 0 906 50.26% 20.05%
6 1977-03-17 36.82 Rumelange 3 861 17.66% @ Stade Dudelange 0 960 62.73% 19.61%
7 1977-03-10 34.85 Stade Dudelange 4 940 35.70% @ Alliance Dudelange 0 879 44.21% 20.09%
8 1977-03-26 31.67 Jeunesse Esch 4 970 40.60% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 874 39.33% 20.06%
9 1976-09-05 27.94 Grevenmacher 4 939 23.79% @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 974 56.29% 19.91%
10 1977-02-12 27.84 Aris Bonnevoie 4 783 23.99% @ Avenir Beggen 1 816 56.09% 19.92%
11 1976-10-24 27.79 @ Rumelange 4 851 46.46% Grevenmacher 0 896 33.46% 20.08%
12 1977-05-07 27.09 Stade Dudelange 4 843 25.55% @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 862 54.49% 19.97%
13 1977-03-19 25.89 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 4 842 28.09% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 839 51.89% 20.02%
14 1976-11-14 25.65 @ Differdange 03 4 916 49.58% Jeunesse Esch 0 937 30.36% 20.06%
15 1976-09-26 25.10 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 874 18.25% @ Grevenmacher 0 966 62.10% 19.65%
16 1977-05-07 24.20 Progres Niedercorn 3 965 40.70% @ Grevenmacher 0 868 39.24% 20.06%
17 1977-04-16 23.98 Avenir Beggen 2 804 20.93% @ Stade Dudelange 0 867 59.28% 19.80%
18 1976-10-10 23.26 Alliance Dudelange 2 874 22.66% @ Grevenmacher 0 919 57.46% 19.87%
19 1976-10-03 22.71 Progres Niedercorn 2 875 24.05% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 908 56.03% 19.92%
20 1977-03-17 22.69 Aris Bonnevoie 2 816 24.11% @ Chiers Rodange 0 849 55.97% 19.92%
21 1977-05-14 22.29 Avenir Beggen 5 841 28.42% @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 2 835 51.55% 20.03%
22 1976-10-03 21.78 @ Differdange 03 3 889 45.48% Grevenmacher 0 941 34.43% 20.09%
23 1976-09-26 21.44 Alliance Dudelange 2 845 27.32% @ Stade Dudelange 0 848 52.67% 20.01%
24 1977-03-05 20.32 FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 3 830 22.17% @ Rumelange 1 880 57.98% 19.85%
25 1976-12-04 20.17 @ Avenir Beggen 3 811 48.58% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 0 840 31.35% 20.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-10-02 63.9 @ Avenir Beggen 3 857 46.89% Etzella Ettelbruck 3 899 33.03% 20.08%
2 1977-05-14 63.9 @ Chiers Rodange 3 853 37.07% Differdange 03 3 965 42.89% 20.04%
3 1976-12-04 59.5 @ Alliance Dudelange 2 909 63.33% Aris Bonnevoie 2 804 17.10% 19.57%
4 1977-02-26 59.5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 882 62.31% Avenir Beggen 2 788 18.06% 19.63%
5 1976-09-26 59.4 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 2 938 57.92% Differdange 03 2 888 22.22% 19.85%
6 1977-03-13 59.4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 874 55.73% Alliance Dudelange 2 844 24.34% 19.93%
7 1977-03-19 59.4 @ Rumelange 2 898 55.26% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 872 24.80% 19.94%
8 1976-09-11 59.3 @ Avenir Beggen 2 845 35.83% Grevenmacher 2 967 44.15% 20.02%
9 1976-11-14 59.3 @ Avenir Beggen 2 827 37.72% Stade Dudelange 2 935 42.23% 20.05%
10 1977-02-13 59.3 @ Rumelange 2 881 50.00% Progres Niedercorn 2 899 29.95% 20.05%
11 1977-04-16 59.3 @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 805 47.50% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 842 32.43% 20.08%
12 1976-10-31 56.5 Chiers Rodange 3 873 21.71% @ Stade Dudelange 2 928 58.46% 19.83%
13 1976-09-12 54.8 Progres Niedercorn 3 852 27.40% @ Alliance Dudelange 2 855 52.59% 20.01%
14 1976-10-31 54.5 Progres Niedercorn 3 842 28.56% @ Avenir Beggen 2 835 51.41% 20.03%
15 1977-02-13 53.9 @ Differdange 03 1 948 65.42% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 818 15.18% 19.40%
16 1976-10-10 53.8 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 929 60.93% Rumelange 1 849 19.36% 19.71%
17 1976-11-06 53.8 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 918 62.16% Avenir Beggen 1 825 18.20% 19.64%
18 1976-11-14 53.8 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 890 61.03% Aris Bonnevoie 1 809 19.26% 19.71%
19 1977-03-26 53.8 @ Differdange 03 1 969 60.21% Rumelange 1 897 20.04% 19.75%
20 1976-12-04 53.7 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 881 50.29% Progres Niedercorn 1 897 29.66% 20.05%
21 1976-12-11 53.7 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 880 45.06% Stade Dudelange 1 935 34.86% 20.09%
22 1977-03-13 53.7 @ Grevenmacher 1 880 54.63% Rumelange 1 860 25.40% 19.96%
23 1977-03-26 53.7 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 868 55.15% Chiers Rodange 1 843 24.90% 19.95%
24 1976-09-12 53.4 Stade Dudelange 4 829 19.59% @ Differdange 03 2 907 60.68% 19.73%
25 1977-02-26 53.1 Jeunesse Esch 3 942 33.05% @ Progres Niedercorn 2 900 46.87% 20.08%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-03-19 27.8 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 910 62.89% Avenir Beggen 0 809 17.52% 19.60%
2 1976-10-24 29.6 @ Differdange 03 3 892 56.96% Avenir Beggen 0 851 23.15% 19.89%
3 1976-12-19 29.6 @ Grevenmacher 3 874 57.20% Avenir Beggen 0 831 22.92% 19.88%
4 1977-05-14 29.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1013 64.70% Rumelange 0 892 15.84% 19.46%
5 1976-11-20 30.1 @ Rumelange 3 854 55.33% Avenir Beggen 0 828 24.72% 19.94%
6 1976-09-11 30.3 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 908 54.80% Aris Bonnevoie 0 886 25.24% 19.96%
7 1976-11-14 31.2 @ Differdange 03 4 916 49.58% Jeunesse Esch 0 937 30.36% 20.06%
8 1976-12-11 31.3 @ Rumelange 2 870 59.41% Aris Bonnevoie 0 806 20.80% 19.79%
9 1976-10-09 31.5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 900 50.88% Differdange 03 0 911 29.08% 20.04%
10 1976-11-20 31.7 @ Stade Dudelange 6 935 60.65% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 858 19.62% 19.73%
11 1976-10-24 31.9 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 897 49.52% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 919 30.42% 20.06%
12 1977-03-13 32.0 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 899 56.84% Chiers Rodange 0 859 23.27% 19.89%
13 1976-10-24 32.1 @ Rumelange 4 851 46.46% Grevenmacher 0 896 33.46% 20.08%
14 1976-12-04 32.1 @ Avenir Beggen 3 811 48.58% FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 0 840 31.35% 20.07%
15 1976-10-03 33.1 @ Differdange 03 3 889 45.48% Grevenmacher 0 941 34.43% 20.09%
16 1976-10-24 33.2 @ Chiers Rodange 2 861 53.04% Progres Niedercorn 0 854 26.96% 20.00%
17 1976-09-26 33.8 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 862 50.84% Rumelange 0 873 29.12% 20.04%
18 1976-10-30 33.9 @ FC Red Black Pfaffenthal 1 918 62.25% Aris Bonnevoie 0 825 18.12% 19.64%
19 1977-03-26 33.9 Jeunesse Esch 4 970 40.60% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 874 39.33% 20.06%
20 1977-03-19 34.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 965 61.56% Grevenmacher 0 879 18.76% 19.68%
21 1977-05-07 34.5 Progres Niedercorn 3 965 40.70% @ Grevenmacher 0 868 39.24% 20.06%
22 1976-11-06 34.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 918 53.29% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 909 26.72% 19.99%
23 1977-04-16 34.6 @ Rumelange 1 899 59.96% Alliance Dudelange 0 829 20.28% 19.76%
24 1977-02-13 34.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 936 59.30% Chiers Rodange 0 873 20.90% 19.80%
25 1977-04-16 34.9 @ Chiers Rodange 2 845 47.39% Grevenmacher 0 883 32.54% 20.08%