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1977-78 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Progres Niedercorn

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Progres Niedercorn

5.50 points above expected

32 points · 26.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stade Dudelange

3.81 points below expected

18 points · 21.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Progres Niedercorn 22 13 6 3 32 55 33 +22 26.50 +5.50
2 Jeunesse Esch 22 10 6 6 26 45 31 +14 27.23 -1.23
3 Differdange 03 22 9 7 6 25 50 33 +17 26.35 -1.35
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 8 7 7 23 48 43 +5 20.81 +2.19
5 Chiers Rodange 22 8 6 8 22 35 35 0 22.24 -0.24
6 Union Luxembourg 22 7 7 8 21 35 43 -8 16.15 +4.85
7 Rumelange 22 9 3 10 21 30 44 -14 21.15 -0.15
8 Alliance Dudelange 22 7 6 9 20 34 48 -14 19.30 +0.70
9 Avenir Beggen 22 7 5 10 19 31 35 -4 21.95 -2.95
10 Grevenmacher 22 5 9 8 19 28 37 -9 21.69 -2.69
11 Spora Luxembourg 22 6 6 10 18 49 47 +2 18.82 -0.82
12 Stade Dudelange 22 7 4 11 18 34 45 -11 21.81 -3.81

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Progres Niedercorn 32 26.50 +5.50
2 Union Luxembourg 21 16.15 +4.85
3 Etzella Ettelbruck 23 20.81 +2.19
4 Alliance Dudelange 20 19.30 +0.70
5 Rumelange 21 21.15 -0.15

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stade Dudelange 18 21.81 -3.81
2 Avenir Beggen 19 21.95 -2.95
3 Grevenmacher 19 21.69 -2.69
4 Differdange 03 25 26.35 -1.35
5 Jeunesse Esch 26 27.23 -1.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Progres Niedercorn 7 Dec 11 – Apr 16 1 in 129
2 Chiers Rodange 4 Oct 1 – Nov 5 1 in 39
3 Spora Luxembourg 3 May 6 – May 31 1 in 25
4 Alliance Dudelange 2 May 20 – May 31 1 in 23
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 Apr 16 – Apr 29 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 3 Dec 18 – Mar 12 1 in 59
2 Spora Luxembourg 4 Apr 8 – Apr 29 1 in 43
3 Progres Niedercorn 3 Sep 3 – Sep 18 1 in 40
4 Stade Dudelange 3 Sep 4 – Sep 18 1 in 39
5 Grevenmacher 4 Apr 29 – May 31 1 in 35

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Progres Niedercorn 19 Sep 24 – May 31 1 in 372
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 Apr 2 – May 31 1 in 33
3 Chiers Rodange 7 Oct 1 – Dec 11 1 in 18
4 Union Luxembourg 4 Sep 3 – Sep 25 1 in 18
5 Grevenmacher 6 Oct 22 – Dec 18 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grevenmacher 10 Mar 5 – May 31 1 in 71
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 Sep 25 – Dec 10 1 in 46
3 Spora Luxembourg 10 Nov 27 – Apr 29 1 in 34
4 Jeunesse Esch 5 Dec 18 – Apr 9 1 in 24
5 Chiers Rodange 6 Apr 16 – May 31 1 in 23

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Progres Niedercorn 960 32 +6 7 6.0 +1.0
Jeunesse Esch 935 26 +6 6 6.2 -0.2
Differdange 03 933 25 -9 4 6.1 -2.1
Etzella Ettelbruck 855 23 +21 9 4.9 +4.1
Chiers Rodange 838 22 -31 3 5.3 -2.3
Union Luxembourg 740 21 +8 6 3.9 +2.1
Rumelange 815 21 -23 3 4.8 -1.8
Alliance Dudelange 801 20 +20 7 4.0 +3.0
Avenir Beggen 828 19 +15 4 4.7 -0.7
Grevenmacher 803 19 -25 1 4.7 -3.7
Spora Luxembourg 798 18 +16 6 4.6 +1.4
Stade Dudelange 826 18 -3 4 4.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB CR D0 EE GRE JE PN RUM SL SD UL
Alliance Dudelange —
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
1.76
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
1.79
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
2.47
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
2.53
0-2-0
3.22
Avenir Beggen
1-1-0
2.86
—
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
2.30
1-1-0
2.79
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
3.39
Chiers Rodange
0-1-1
3.24
2-0-0
2.77
—
0-0-2
2.36
0-2-0
2.88
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
2.06
0-2-0
2.20
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.56
Differdange 03
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.08
—
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.59
0-2-0
2.59
0-0-2
3.17
1-1-0
3.49
0-2-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.94
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.10
—
0-1-1
2.72
1-1-0
1.85
1-0-1
2.17
1-1-0
2.64
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.44
Grevenmacher
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.71
—
0-2-0
1.95
0-0-2
2.15
0-1-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
3.42
Jeunesse Esch
1-0-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.38
1-1-0
2.85
0-1-1
3.60
0-2-0
3.49
—
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
3.53
0-2-0
4.10
Progres Niedercorn
2-0-0
3.50
2-0-0
3.17
0-2-0
3.24
0-2-0
2.84
1-0-1
3.28
2-0-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.57
—
1-1-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
3.95
Rumelange
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
2.76
2-0-0
2.26
0-1-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.03
—
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.75
1-0-1
3.43
Spora Luxembourg
2-0-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
1.73
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
2.57
—
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.99
Stade Dudelange
0-1-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.55
0-2-0
2.16
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
2.67
1-1-0
3.01
—
1-0-1
3.40
Union Luxembourg
0-2-0
2.22
1-1-0
2.06
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
2.01
1-1-0
2.02
0-2-0
1.39
1-0-1
1.54
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.04
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.48 +3.0
Allowed 0.39 -4.2
Differential 0.69 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%5.30%3.41%2.27%0.76%0.38%16.67%
15.30%13.64%7.58%3.79%2.27%2.65%35.23%
23.41%7.58%4.55%3.41%1.14%1.52%21.59%
32.27%3.79%3.41%3.79%0.38%0.76%14.39%
40.76%2.27%1.14%0.38%0.76%0.76%6.06%
5+0.38%2.65%1.52%0.76%0.76%—6.06%
Total16.67%35.23%21.59%14.39%6.06%6.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.80 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.00
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
19.09%27.27%——4.55%9.09%50.00%
2—9.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
Total9.09%50.00%4.55%9.09%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.18 -0.64
SD 1.34 1.89 2.19
CV 0.86 0.87 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
14.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
2—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%40.91%18.18%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.18
SD 1.26 1.33 1.97
CV 0.89 0.84 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
1—13.64%4.55%4.55%—13.64%36.36%
213.64%4.55%————18.18%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%40.91%4.55%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.59 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.68 2.39
CV 0.90 1.06 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
1—9.09%22.73%———31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
Total18.18%27.27%45.45%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.50 +0.77
SD 1.64 1.01 1.72
CV 0.72 0.67 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
1—13.64%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%—4.55%40.91%
4—————9.09%9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%36.36%18.18%18.18%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.95 +0.23
SD 1.18 1.56 1.38
CV 0.54 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%4.55%—50.00%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%22.73%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.68 -0.41
SD 0.94 1.25 1.33
CV 0.73 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total18.18%36.36%31.82%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.41 +0.64
SD 1.86 0.96 2.01
CV 0.91 0.68 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%——4.55%——9.09%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
3—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%—4.55%4.55%—13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%——4.55%—13.64%
Total22.73%40.91%9.09%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.50 +1.00
SD 1.63 1.30 1.93
CV 0.65 0.87 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%—4.55%4.55%27.27%
118.18%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
2—13.64%13.64%———27.27%
3—————4.55%4.55%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total22.73%18.18%36.36%4.55%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.00 -0.64
SD 1.22 1.88 2.32
CV 0.89 0.94 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
14.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%——27.27%
2—4.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%—27.27%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4———————
5+—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
Total9.09%22.73%22.73%36.36%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.14 +0.09
SD 2.16 1.17 2.43
CV 0.97 0.55 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
19.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%—45.45%
2—13.64%9.09%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
3——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%9.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.05 -0.50
SD 0.96 1.62 1.74
CV 0.62 0.79 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
1—18.18%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%—9.09%27.27%
3—4.55%9.09%4.55%——18.18%
4———————
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total13.64%40.91%18.18%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.95 -0.36
SD 1.30 1.76 1.84
CV 0.82 0.90 —
Max 5 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Progres Niedercorn 960 32 26.50 +5.50 91.0% 16 18 24 26 29 34 36
Jeunesse Esch 935 26 27.23 -1.23 43.0% 17 20 25 27 30 33 38
Differdange 03 933 25 26.35 -1.35 42.0% 17 19 24 26 29 33 35
Etzella Ettelbruck 855 23 20.81 +2.19 76.0% 13 14 18 21 23 27 31
Chiers Rodange 838 22 22.24 -0.24 52.0% 15 16 19 22 25 27 31
Avenir Beggen 828 19 21.95 -2.95 24.0% 11 15 20 22 24 28 30
Stade Dudelange 826 18 21.81 -3.81 19.0% 12 16 19 22 25 28 30
Rumelange 815 21 21.15 -0.15 56.0% 13 15 19 21 24 26 32
Grevenmacher 803 19 21.69 -2.69 27.0% 14 17 19 21 23 28 32
Alliance Dudelange 801 20 19.30 +0.70 64.0% 11 13 17 19 22 25 27
Spora Luxembourg 798 18 18.82 -0.82 49.0% 9 13 17 19 21 26 28
Union Luxembourg 740 21 16.15 +4.85 98.0% 8 11 14 16 18 21 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.15%
Clear Edge
43.94%27.27%28.79%
Elo Value
Home Edge
178 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
053.05500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Progres Niedercorn, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.27/gm
Runaway
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.96 * Some Luck: 2.96 to 4.44 * Lucky: 4.44 to 5.92 * Wild Swing: 5.92 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.82 * Close: 1.82 to 2.73 * Off: 2.73 to 3.65 * Way Off: 3.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.79 points
As Expected
03.709
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.50
Close
02.285
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.00%
Union Luxembourg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
19.00%
Stade Dudelange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 65.90
1.02
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
78%
Even
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Rare
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.61
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.69
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.102
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Progres Niedercorn27.00%24.00%12.00%11.00%11.00%4.00%6.00%—1.00%3.00%1.00%—
Jeunesse Esch30.00%25.00%17.00%10.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%4.00%—1.00%——
Differdange 0325.00%18.00%15.00%13.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%—
Etzella Ettelbruck4.00%3.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%6.00%14.00%5.00%8.00%11.00%
Chiers Rodange3.00%5.00%13.00%13.00%10.00%16.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%2.00%4.00%
Union Luxembourg———1.00%—1.00%2.00%7.00%11.00%17.00%21.00%40.00%
Rumelange2.00%2.00%7.00%13.00%9.00%4.00%13.00%13.00%7.00%14.00%13.00%3.00%
Alliance Dudelange—2.00%1.00%4.00%7.00%9.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%16.00%17.00%14.00%
Avenir Beggen6.00%3.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%18.00%7.00%10.00%9.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%
Grevenmacher2.00%6.00%7.00%6.00%9.00%7.00%23.00%9.00%17.00%4.00%6.00%4.00%
Spora Luxembourg—3.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%7.00%6.00%17.00%11.00%13.00%19.00%13.00%
Stade Dudelange1.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%11.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%8.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Progres Niedercorn 99.00% 1.00%
Differdange 03 98.00% 2.00%
Chiers Rodange 94.00% 6.00%
Grevenmacher 90.00% 10.00%
Stade Dudelange 90.00% 10.00%
Avenir Beggen 88.00% 12.00%
Rumelange 84.00% 16.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 81.00% 19.00%
Alliance Dudelange 69.00% 31.00%
Spora Luxembourg 68.00% 32.00%
Union Luxembourg 39.00% 61.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1977-09-03 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-150.7 930 833 57.54% 26.81% 15.65%+0.85 -1.2 1
1977-09-03 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.7 833 930 15.65% 26.81% 57.54%-0.85 +1.2 1
1977-09-03 Progres Niedercorn W 2-149.1 731 913 23.55% 27.48% 48.97%-0.72 +5.9 2
1977-09-03 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-249.1 913 731 48.97% 27.48% 23.55%+0.72 -5.9 0
1977-09-04 Grevenmacher L 1-345.9 837 829 47.79% 28.54% 23.67%+0.34 -10.0 0
1977-09-04 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-145.9 829 837 23.67% 28.54% 47.79%-0.34 +10.0 2
1977-09-04 Rumelange L 1-250.1 900 856 51.94% 28.00% 20.06%+0.55 -6.2 0
1977-09-04 @ Differdange 03 W 2-150.1 856 900 20.06% 28.00% 51.94%-0.55 +6.2 2
1977-09-04 Avenir Beggen D 1-150.1 784 842 39.20% 28.93% 31.87%-0.03 -0.2 1
1977-09-04 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-150.1 842 784 31.87% 28.93% 39.20%+0.03 +0.2 1
1977-09-04 Alliance Dudelange L 0-145.6 851 823 50.14% 28.27% 21.59%+0.46 -6.4 0
1977-09-04 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-045.6 823 851 21.59% 28.27% 50.14%-0.46 +6.4 2
1977-09-10 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-150.2 843 834 47.83% 28.54% 23.63%+0.35 -0.7 2
1977-09-10 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-150.2 834 843 23.63% 28.54% 47.83%-0.35 +0.7 2
1977-09-10 Jeunesse Esch L 0-337.8 907 929 44.01% 28.82% 27.17%+0.17 -15.7 0
1977-09-10 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-037.8 929 907 27.17% 28.82% 44.01%-0.17 +15.7 3
1977-09-11 Union Luxembourg D 1-150.7 830 737 57.05% 26.94% 16.01%+0.82 -1.2 3
1977-09-11 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.7 737 830 16.01% 26.94% 57.05%-0.82 +1.2 3
1977-09-11 Stade Dudelange W 2-142.3 839 845 45.99% 28.70% 25.31%+0.26 +3.6 4
1977-09-11 @ Grevenmacher L 1-242.3 845 839 25.31% 28.70% 45.99%-0.26 -3.6 0
1977-09-11 Chiers Rodange L 0-242.3 862 827 50.92% 28.16% 20.92%+0.49 -12.2 2
1977-09-11 @ Rumelange W 2-042.3 827 862 20.92% 28.16% 50.92%-0.49 +12.2 2
1977-09-11 Differdange 03 L 1-244.3 784 894 32.03% 28.66% 39.32%-0.32 -4.2 1
1977-09-11 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-144.3 894 784 39.32% 28.66% 32.03%+0.32 +4.2 2
1977-09-17 Grevenmacher W 3-143.2 738 842 32.78% 28.71% 38.51%-0.29 +8.4 5
1977-09-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-343.2 842 738 38.51% 28.71% 32.78%+0.29 -8.4 4
1977-09-18 Spora Luxembourg L 0-146.5 839 780 53.62% 27.71% 18.67%+0.63 -6.8 2
1977-09-18 @ Chiers Rodange W 1-046.5 780 839 18.67% 27.71% 53.62%-0.63 +6.8 3
1977-09-18 Avenir Beggen L 1-250.4 898 842 53.28% 27.77% 18.95%+0.61 -6.4 2
1977-09-18 @ Differdange 03 W 2-150.4 842 898 18.95% 27.77% 53.28%-0.61 +6.3 4
1977-09-18 Progres Niedercorn W 3-141.2 835 892 39.35% 28.93% 31.72%-0.02 +7.3 4
1977-09-18 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-341.2 892 835 31.72% 28.93% 39.35%+0.02 -7.3 0
1977-09-18 Alliance Dudelange W 4-239.3 945 828 59.34% 26.30% 14.36%+0.95 +3.4 5
1977-09-18 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-439.3 828 945 14.36% 26.30% 59.34%-0.95 -3.4 3
1977-09-18 Rumelange L 1-248.4 842 850 45.69% 28.72% 25.59%+0.25 -5.6 0
1977-09-18 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-148.4 850 842 25.59% 28.72% 45.69%-0.25 +5.6 4
1977-09-24 Progres Niedercorn L 1-247.4 848 884 42.18% 28.89% 28.93%+0.10 -5.2 4
1977-09-24 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-147.4 884 848 28.93% 28.89% 42.18%-0.10 +5.2 2
1977-09-25 Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-452.6 825 842 44.65% 28.79% 26.56%+0.20 +3.4 5
1977-09-25 @ Alliance Dudelange L 4-552.6 842 825 26.56% 28.79% 44.65%-0.20 -3.4 4
1977-09-25 Chiers Rodange W 3-029.9 892 833 53.60% 27.71% 18.69%+0.63 +8.1 4
1977-09-25 @ Differdange 03 L 0-329.9 833 892 18.69% 27.71% 53.60%-0.63 -8.1 2
1977-09-25 Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.2 834 948 31.48% 28.61% 39.90%-0.34 +0.2 5
1977-09-25 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.2 948 834 39.90% 28.61% 31.48%+0.34 -0.2 6
1977-09-25 Union Luxembourg L 0-244.1 856 746 58.67% 26.50% 14.83%+0.91 -13.8 4
1977-09-25 @ Rumelange W 2-044.1 746 856 14.83% 26.50% 58.67%-0.91 +13.8 7
1977-09-25 Stade Dudelange L 2-351.4 787 836 40.39% 28.93% 30.68%+0.02 -4.8 3
1977-09-25 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-251.4 836 787 30.68% 28.93% 40.39%-0.02 +4.8 2
1977-10-01 Avenir Beggen W 5-135.7 825 843 44.45% 28.80% 26.76%+0.19 +11.8 4
1977-10-01 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-535.7 843 825 26.76% 28.80% 44.45%-0.19 -11.8 4
1977-10-01 Grevenmacher L 2-353.4 838 834 47.29% 28.59% 24.12%+0.32 -5.4 4
1977-10-01 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-253.4 834 838 24.12% 28.59% 47.29%-0.32 +5.4 7
1977-10-01 Rumelange W 4-133.0 948 842 58.35% 26.59% 15.06%+0.89 +5.6 8
1977-10-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-433.0 842 948 15.06% 26.59% 58.35%-0.89 -5.6 4
1977-10-01 Alliance Dudelange W 4-134.3 890 828 53.79% 27.67% 18.54%+0.64 +6.8 4
1977-10-01 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-434.3 828 890 18.54% 27.67% 53.79%-0.64 -6.8 5
1977-10-01 Spora Luxembourg L 1-640.5 760 782 44.04% 28.82% 27.14%+0.18 -20.9 7
1977-10-01 @ Union Luxembourg W 6-140.5 782 760 27.14% 28.82% 44.04%-0.18 +20.9 5
1977-10-01 Differdange 03 D 2-254.6 841 900 39.02% 28.93% 32.05%-0.04 -0.1 3
1977-10-01 @ Stade Dudelange D 2-254.6 900 841 32.05% 28.93% 39.02%+0.04 +0.1 5
1977-10-15 Avenir Beggen L 2-352.9 822 831 45.56% 28.73% 25.71%+0.24 -5.3 5
1977-10-15 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-252.9 831 822 25.71% 28.73% 45.56%-0.24 +5.3 6
1977-10-15 Stade Dudelange W 4-136.6 836 841 46.24% 28.68% 25.08%+0.27 +8.7 6
1977-10-15 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-436.6 841 836 25.08% 28.68% 46.24%-0.27 -8.7 3
1977-10-15 Union Luxembourg W 6-232.7 900 739 63.36% 24.91% 11.73%+1.20 +4.8 7
1977-10-15 @ Differdange 03 L 2-632.7 739 900 11.73% 24.91% 63.36%-1.20 -4.8 7
1977-10-15 Progres Niedercorn L 0-239.0 840 896 39.41% 28.93% 31.66%-0.02 -9.9 7
1977-10-15 @ Grevenmacher W 2-039.0 896 840 31.66% 28.93% 39.41%+0.02 +9.9 6
1977-10-15 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-254.7 836 833 47.17% 28.60% 24.23%+0.32 -0.5 5
1977-10-15 @ Rumelange D 2-254.7 833 836 24.23% 28.60% 47.17%-0.32 +0.5 5
1977-10-15 Jeunesse Esch L 2-443.6 803 954 26.96% 28.10% 44.94%-0.55 -5.8 5
1977-10-15 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-243.6 954 803 44.94% 28.10% 26.96%+0.55 +5.8 10
1977-10-22 Grevenmacher L 0-144.3 816 830 45.09% 28.76% 26.15%+0.22 -5.8 5
1977-10-22 @ Alliance Dudelange W 1-044.3 830 816 26.15% 28.76% 45.09%-0.22 +5.8 9
1977-10-22 Stade Dudelange W 4-136.3 837 832 47.34% 28.58% 24.08%+0.32 +8.4 8
1977-10-22 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-436.3 832 837 24.08% 28.58% 47.34%-0.32 -8.4 3
1977-10-22 Spora Luxembourg D 1-150.3 834 797 51.08% 28.14% 20.78%+0.50 -0.8 6
1977-10-22 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-150.3 797 834 20.78% 28.14% 51.08%-0.50 +0.8 6
1977-10-22 Differdange 03 W 1-036.2 960 905 53.05% 27.81% 19.14%+0.60 +3.0 12
1977-10-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-136.2 905 960 19.14% 27.81% 53.05%-0.60 -3.0 7
1977-10-22 Rumelange W 6-029.7 906 836 54.75% 27.48% 17.77%+0.69 +14.8 8
1977-10-22 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-629.7 836 906 17.77% 27.48% 54.75%-0.69 -14.8 5
1977-10-22 Chiers Rodange L 1-244.3 734 845 31.96% 28.65% 39.39%-0.32 -4.2 7
1977-10-22 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-144.3 845 734 39.39% 28.65% 31.96%+0.32 +4.2 8
1977-11-05 Jeunesse Esch W 3-036.5 849 963 31.62% 28.63% 39.75%-0.34 +14.4 10
1977-11-05 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-336.5 963 849 39.75% 28.63% 31.62%+0.34 -14.4 12
1977-11-05 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-136.6 902 833 54.66% 27.50% 17.84%+0.69 +4.6 9
1977-11-05 @ Differdange 03 L 1-336.6 833 902 17.84% 27.50% 54.66%-0.69 -4.6 6
1977-11-05 Avenir Beggen D 0-046.9 836 845 45.60% 28.73% 25.67%+0.24 -0.6 10
1977-11-05 @ Grevenmacher D 0-046.9 845 836 25.67% 28.73% 45.60%-0.24 +0.6 9
1977-11-05 Alliance Dudelange L 0-145.1 821 810 48.05% 28.52% 23.43%+0.36 -6.2 5
1977-11-05 @ Rumelange W 1-045.1 810 821 23.43% 28.52% 48.05%-0.36 +6.1 7
1977-11-05 Progres Niedercorn D 3-358.8 798 921 30.33% 28.51% 41.16%-0.39 +0.2 7
1977-11-05 @ Spora Luxembourg D 3-358.8 921 798 41.16% 28.51% 30.33%+0.39 -0.2 9
1977-11-05 Union Luxembourg W 1-035.0 823 730 57.10% 26.93% 15.97%+0.82 +2.6 5
1977-11-05 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-135.0 730 823 15.97% 26.93% 57.10%-0.82 -2.6 7
1977-11-19 Union Luxembourg D 1-150.9 846 728 59.48% 26.26% 14.26%+0.96 -1.3 10
1977-11-19 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-150.9 728 846 14.26% 26.26% 59.48%-0.96 +1.3 8
1977-11-20 Spora Luxembourg L 1-542.3 817 798 49.01% 28.41% 22.58%+0.40 -18.7 7
1977-11-20 @ Alliance Dudelange W 5-142.3 798 817 22.58% 28.41% 49.01%-0.40 +18.7 9
1977-11-20 Chiers Rodange D 3-358.7 828 864 42.23% 28.89% 28.88%+0.10 -0.2 7
1977-11-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 3-358.7 864 828 28.88% 28.89% 42.23%-0.10 +0.2 11
1977-11-20 Rumelange D 2-254.7 835 815 49.18% 28.39% 22.43%+0.41 -0.5 11
1977-11-20 @ Grevenmacher D 2-254.7 815 835 22.43% 28.39% 49.18%-0.41 +0.5 6
1977-11-20 Stade Dudelange W 7-232.6 948 826 59.85% 26.14% 14.01%+0.98 +6.9 14
1977-11-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-732.6 826 948 14.01% 26.14% 59.85%-0.98 -6.9 5
1977-11-20 Differdange 03 D 4-461.5 921 907 48.47% 28.47% 23.06%+0.38 -0.4 10
1977-11-20 @ Progres Niedercorn D 4-461.5 907 921 23.06% 28.47% 48.47%-0.38 +0.4 10
1977-11-26 Jeunesse Esch D 0-047.6 729 955 19.43% 26.38% 54.20%-0.97 +1.1 9
1977-11-26 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-047.6 955 729 54.20% 26.38% 19.43%+0.97 -1.1 15
1977-11-27 Progres Niedercorn D 1-150.1 864 920 39.42% 28.93% 31.65%-0.02 -0.2 12
1977-11-27 @ Chiers Rodange D 1-150.1 920 864 31.65% 28.93% 39.42%+0.02 +0.2 11
1977-11-27 Alliance Dudelange W 2-030.9 907 798 58.64% 26.51% 14.85%+0.91 +4.5 12
1977-11-27 @ Differdange 03 L 0-230.9 798 907 14.85% 26.51% 58.64%-0.91 -4.5 7
1977-11-27 Avenir Beggen W 1-039.2 815 844 43.12% 28.86% 28.02%+0.14 +4.1 8
1977-11-27 @ Rumelange L 0-139.2 844 815 28.02% 28.86% 43.12%-0.14 -4.1 10
1977-11-27 Grevenmacher D 0-046.9 817 834 44.53% 28.79% 26.67%+0.20 -0.5 10
1977-11-27 @ Spora Luxembourg D 0-046.9 834 817 26.67% 28.79% 44.53%-0.20 +0.5 12
1977-11-27 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-142.4 819 828 45.69% 28.72% 25.59%+0.25 +3.6 7
1977-11-27 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-242.4 828 819 25.59% 28.72% 45.69%-0.25 -3.6 7
1977-12-10 Union Luxembourg L 3-555.0 824 730 57.19% 26.90% 15.91%+0.83 -9.9 7
1977-12-10 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-355.0 730 824 15.91% 26.90% 57.19%-0.83 +9.9 11
1977-12-11 Chiers Rodange D 1-150.1 793 864 37.53% 28.91% 33.56%-0.10 -0.1 8
1977-12-11 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.1 864 793 33.56% 28.91% 37.53%+0.10 +0.1 13
1977-12-11 Jeunesse Esch L 0-140.2 840 954 31.55% 28.62% 39.83%-0.34 -4.4 10
1977-12-11 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-040.2 954 840 39.83% 28.62% 31.55%+0.34 +4.4 17
1977-12-11 Differdange 03 D 1-150.1 835 912 36.64% 28.89% 34.47%-0.13 -0.1 13
1977-12-11 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.1 912 835 34.47% 28.89% 36.64%+0.13 +0.0 13
1977-12-11 Stade Dudelange W 3-135.7 921 823 57.55% 26.81% 15.64%+0.85 +4.1 13
1977-12-11 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-335.7 823 921 15.64% 26.81% 57.55%-0.85 -4.1 7
1977-12-11 Spora Luxembourg W 4-030.8 820 816 47.19% 28.60% 24.21%+0.32 +13.1 10
1977-12-11 @ Rumelange L 0-430.8 816 820 24.21% 28.60% 47.19%-0.32 -13.1 10
1977-12-17 Spora Luxembourg W 3-245.4 836 803 50.64% 28.20% 21.16%+0.48 +2.9 12
1977-12-17 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-345.4 803 836 21.16% 28.20% 50.64%-0.48 -2.9 10
1977-12-18 Stade Dudelange D 1-150.1 793 819 43.58% 28.84% 27.58%+0.16 -0.4 9
1977-12-18 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.1 819 793 27.58% 28.84% 43.58%-0.16 +0.4 8
1977-12-18 Jeunesse Esch W 2-040.2 814 958 27.78% 28.22% 44.01%-0.51 +10.7 9
1977-12-18 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-240.2 958 814 44.01% 28.22% 27.78%+0.51 -10.7 17
1977-12-18 Chiers Rodange W 1-039.2 835 864 43.11% 28.86% 28.03%+0.14 +4.1 15
1977-12-18 @ Grevenmacher L 0-139.2 864 835 28.03% 28.86% 43.11%-0.14 -4.1 13
1977-12-18 Union Luxembourg W 2-028.9 925 740 65.36% 24.09% 10.55%+1.33 +3.2 15
1977-12-18 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-228.9 740 925 10.55% 24.09% 65.36%-1.33 -3.2 11
1977-12-18 Differdange 03 W 2-145.2 833 912 36.30% 28.88% 34.82%-0.15 +4.5 12
1977-12-18 @ Rumelange L 1-245.2 912 833 34.82% 28.88% 36.30%+0.15 -4.5 13
1978-03-04 Avenir Beggen L 0-144.3 825 839 45.07% 28.76% 26.17%+0.22 -5.8 9
1978-03-04 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-044.3 839 825 26.17% 28.76% 45.07%-0.22 +5.8 14
1978-03-04 Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.1 737 793 39.46% 28.93% 31.61%-0.02 -0.2 12
1978-03-04 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-150.1 793 737 31.61% 28.93% 39.46%+0.02 +0.2 10
1978-03-05 Rumelange W 2-033.7 860 837 49.47% 28.35% 22.17%+0.42 +6.4 15
1978-03-05 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-233.7 837 860 22.17% 28.35% 49.47%-0.42 -6.4 12
1978-03-05 Spora Luxembourg D 3-359.4 907 800 58.45% 26.56% 14.99%+0.90 -0.8 14
1978-03-05 @ Differdange 03 D 3-359.4 800 907 14.99% 26.56% 58.45%-0.90 +0.8 11
1978-03-05 Progres Niedercorn L 1-249.4 948 928 49.13% 28.40% 22.47%+0.41 -5.9 17
1978-03-05 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-149.4 928 948 22.47% 28.40% 49.13%-0.41 +5.9 17
1978-03-05 Grevenmacher W 4-137.2 819 839 44.26% 28.81% 26.93%+0.19 +9.2 10
1978-03-05 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-437.2 839 819 26.93% 28.81% 44.26%-0.19 -9.2 15
1978-03-11 Differdange 03 L 0-336.3 844 906 38.68% 28.93% 32.39%-0.05 -14.2 14
1978-03-11 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-036.3 906 844 32.39% 28.93% 38.68%+0.05 +14.2 16
1978-03-11 Union Luxembourg D 1-150.7 830 736 57.11% 26.92% 15.97%+0.82 -1.2 16
1978-03-11 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.7 736 830 15.97% 26.92% 57.11%-0.82 +1.2 13
1978-03-12 Jeunesse Esch W 3-144.8 793 942 27.24% 28.14% 44.62%-0.54 +9.4 12
1978-03-12 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-344.8 942 793 44.62% 28.14% 27.24%+0.54 -9.4 17
1978-03-12 Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-448.2 934 819 59.17% 26.35% 14.48%+0.94 +2.0 19
1978-03-12 @ Progres Niedercorn L 4-548.2 819 934 14.48% 26.35% 59.17%-0.94 -2.0 9
1978-03-12 Stade Dudelange W 1-038.0 831 828 47.07% 28.61% 24.32%+0.31 +3.7 14
1978-03-12 @ Rumelange L 0-138.0 828 831 24.32% 28.61% 47.07%-0.31 -3.7 10
1978-03-12 Chiers Rodange L 0-238.7 801 866 38.22% 28.92% 32.86%-0.07 -9.7 11
1978-03-12 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-038.7 866 801 32.86% 28.92% 38.22%+0.07 +9.7 17
1978-04-01 Grevenmacher D 1-150.8 932 829 58.11% 26.66% 15.23%+0.88 -1.2 18
1978-04-01 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.8 829 932 15.23% 26.66% 58.11%-0.88 +1.2 17
1978-04-02 Differdange 03 L 1-540.1 876 921 41.01% 28.92% 30.07%+0.05 -16.1 17
1978-04-02 @ Chiers Rodange W 5-140.1 921 876 30.07% 28.92% 41.01%-0.05 +16.1 18
1978-04-02 Alliance Dudelange W 3-031.4 817 802 48.55% 28.46% 22.99%+0.38 +9.6 11
1978-04-02 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-331.4 802 817 22.99% 28.46% 48.55%-0.38 -9.6 12
1978-04-02 Avenir Beggen W 3-135.5 936 830 58.30% 26.60% 15.10%+0.89 +4.0 21
1978-04-02 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-335.5 830 936 15.10% 26.60% 58.30%-0.89 -4.0 14
1978-04-02 Rumelange L 0-140.9 738 834 33.83% 28.78% 37.40%-0.25 -4.7 13
1978-04-02 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-040.9 834 738 37.40% 28.78% 33.83%+0.25 +4.7 16
1978-04-02 Spora Luxembourg D 2-254.8 825 791 50.72% 28.19% 21.09%+0.48 -0.6 11
1978-04-02 @ Stade Dudelange D 2-254.8 791 825 21.09% 28.19% 50.72%-0.48 +0.6 12
1978-04-08 Union Luxembourg L 2-355.0 792 733 53.54% 27.72% 18.74%+0.63 -6.0 12
1978-04-08 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-255.0 733 792 18.74% 27.72% 53.54%-0.63 +6.0 15
1978-04-09 Progres Niedercorn L 1-535.8 793 940 27.42% 28.17% 44.41%-0.53 -11.9 12
1978-04-09 @ Alliance Dudelange W 5-135.8 940 793 44.41% 28.17% 27.42%+0.53 +11.9 23
1978-04-09 Chiers Rodange L 1-441.9 826 860 42.53% 28.88% 28.59%+0.11 -12.9 14
1978-04-09 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-141.9 860 826 28.59% 28.88% 42.53%-0.11 +12.9 19
1978-04-09 Stade Dudelange D 1-150.9 937 824 58.99% 26.40% 14.61%+0.93 -1.3 19
1978-04-09 @ Differdange 03 D 1-150.9 824 937 14.61% 26.40% 58.99%-0.93 +1.3 12
1978-04-09 Etzella Ettelbruck D 3-358.8 830 827 47.14% 28.60% 24.25%+0.31 -0.4 18
1978-04-09 @ Grevenmacher D 3-358.8 827 830 24.25% 28.60% 47.14%-0.31 +0.4 12
1978-04-09 Jeunesse Esch W 1-041.8 839 931 34.48% 28.81% 36.71%-0.22 +5.0 18
1978-04-09 @ Rumelange L 0-141.8 931 839 36.71% 28.81% 34.48%+0.22 -5.0 18
1978-04-15 Spora Luxembourg W 3-134.5 926 786 61.53% 25.58% 12.88%+1.08 +3.4 20
1978-04-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-334.5 786 926 12.88% 25.58% 61.53%-1.08 -3.4 12
1978-04-15 Differdange 03 L 2-538.7 739 935 22.13% 27.16% 50.71%-0.80 -6.7 15
1978-04-15 @ Union Luxembourg W 5-238.7 935 739 50.71% 27.16% 22.13%+0.80 +6.7 21
1978-04-16 Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.3 813 781 50.62% 28.20% 21.18%+0.48 -0.8 15
1978-04-16 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-150.3 781 813 21.18% 28.20% 50.62%-0.48 +0.8 13
1978-04-16 Rumelange W 3-139.6 827 844 44.66% 28.78% 26.55%+0.20 +6.4 14
1978-04-16 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-339.6 844 827 26.55% 28.78% 44.66%-0.20 -6.4 18
1978-04-16 Grevenmacher W 2-138.2 952 830 59.88% 26.13% 13.99%+0.98 +2.1 25
1978-04-16 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-238.2 830 952 13.99% 26.13% 59.88%-0.98 -2.1 18
1978-04-16 Chiers Rodange W 2-143.9 825 873 40.67% 28.92% 30.41%+0.03 +4.1 14
1978-04-16 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-243.9 873 825 30.41% 28.92% 40.67%-0.03 -4.1 19
1978-04-22 Union Luxembourg D 0-047.8 868 732 61.15% 25.71% 13.13%+1.06 -1.6 20
1978-04-22 @ Chiers Rodange D 0-047.8 732 868 13.13% 25.71% 61.15%-1.06 +1.6 16
1978-04-23 Jeunesse Esch D 2-254.7 942 930 48.29% 28.49% 23.22%+0.37 -0.5 22
1978-04-23 @ Differdange 03 D 2-254.7 930 942 23.22% 28.49% 48.29%-0.37 +0.5 21
1978-04-23 Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.4 827 782 52.09% 27.98% 19.93%+0.55 -0.9 19
1978-04-23 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.4 782 827 19.93% 27.98% 52.09%-0.55 +0.9 14
1978-04-23 Progres Niedercorn D 2-254.7 838 954 31.22% 28.59% 40.19%-0.35 +0.2 19
1978-04-23 @ Rumelange D 2-254.7 954 838 40.19% 28.59% 31.22%+0.35 -0.2 26
1978-04-23 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-343.7 782 834 40.13% 28.93% 30.94%+0.01 -8.7 12
1978-04-23 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-143.7 834 782 30.94% 28.93% 40.13%-0.01 +8.7 16
1978-04-23 Avenir Beggen W 1-037.5 829 813 48.77% 28.44% 22.79%+0.39 +3.5 16
1978-04-23 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-137.5 813 829 22.79% 28.44% 48.77%-0.39 -3.5 15
1978-04-29 Rumelange W 2-144.2 783 838 39.62% 28.93% 31.45%-0.01 +4.2 16
1978-04-29 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-244.2 838 783 31.45% 28.93% 39.62%+0.01 -4.2 19
1978-04-29 Grevenmacher W 3-032.6 809 826 44.60% 28.79% 26.61%+0.20 +10.8 17
1978-04-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-332.6 826 809 26.61% 28.79% 44.60%-0.20 -10.8 19
1978-04-29 Differdange 03 W 2-146.1 842 942 33.48% 28.76% 37.76%-0.26 +4.8 18
1978-04-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-246.1 942 842 37.76% 28.76% 33.48%+0.26 -4.8 22
1978-04-29 Chiers Rodange W 5-132.9 930 867 54.00% 27.63% 18.37%+0.65 +8.7 23
1978-04-29 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-532.9 867 930 18.37% 27.63% 54.00%-0.65 -8.7 20
1978-04-29 Spora Luxembourg W 2-029.0 954 774 64.97% 24.26% 10.78%+1.31 +3.3 28
1978-04-29 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-229.0 774 954 10.78% 24.26% 64.97%-1.31 -3.3 12
1978-04-29 Stade Dudelange W 2-146.1 734 833 33.53% 28.76% 37.71%-0.26 +4.8 18
1978-04-29 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-246.1 833 734 37.71% 28.76% 33.53%+0.26 -4.8 16
1978-05-06 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-047.0 858 847 48.11% 28.51% 23.38%+0.36 -0.8 21
1978-05-06 @ Chiers Rodange D 0-047.0 847 858 23.38% 28.51% 48.11%-0.36 +0.8 19
1978-05-06 Progres Niedercorn D 0-046.9 937 957 44.23% 28.81% 26.96%+0.18 -0.5 23
1978-05-06 @ Differdange 03 D 0-046.9 957 937 26.96% 28.81% 44.23%-0.18 +0.5 29
1978-05-06 Grevenmacher W 4-242.4 834 816 48.92% 28.42% 22.66%+0.40 +5.1 21
1978-05-06 @ Rumelange L 2-442.4 816 834 22.66% 28.42% 48.92%-0.40 -5.1 19
1978-05-06 Alliance Dudelange W 7-237.2 770 787 44.70% 28.78% 26.52%+0.20 +12.0 14
1978-05-06 @ Spora Luxembourg L 2-737.2 787 770 26.52% 28.78% 44.70%-0.20 -12.0 16
1978-05-06 Jeunesse Esch W 2-146.5 828 939 31.95% 28.65% 39.40%-0.32 +4.9 18
1978-05-06 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-246.5 939 828 39.40% 28.65% 31.95%+0.32 -4.9 23
1978-05-17 Avenir Beggen W 3-249.8 739 820 35.98% 28.87% 35.15%-0.16 +4.3 20
1978-05-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-349.8 820 739 35.15% 28.87% 35.98%+0.16 -4.3 17
1978-05-20 Differdange 03 W 2-148.4 775 936 25.78% 27.91% 46.31%-0.61 +5.6 18
1978-05-20 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-248.4 936 775 46.31% 27.91% 25.78%+0.61 -5.6 23
1978-05-20 Rumelange W 4-031.8 816 839 43.87% 28.83% 27.30%+0.17 +14.4 19
1978-05-20 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-431.8 839 816 27.30% 28.83% 43.87%-0.17 -14.4 21
1978-05-20 Stade Dudelange W 3-246.0 848 833 48.57% 28.46% 22.97%+0.38 +3.1 21
1978-05-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-346.0 833 848 22.97% 28.46% 48.57%-0.38 -3.1 18
1978-05-20 Spora Luxembourg L 1-249.6 811 782 50.14% 28.27% 21.59%+0.46 -6.0 19
1978-05-20 @ Grevenmacher W 2-149.6 782 811 21.59% 28.27% 50.14%-0.46 +6.0 16
1978-05-20 Union Luxembourg D 3-360.2 934 743 65.85% 23.88% 10.28%+1.37 -1.0 24
1978-05-20 @ Jeunesse Esch D 3-360.2 743 934 10.28% 23.88% 65.85%-1.37 +1.0 21
1978-05-20 Chiers Rodange D 1-150.8 958 857 57.77% 26.75% 15.48%+0.86 -1.2 30
1978-05-20 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-150.8 857 958 15.48% 26.75% 57.77%-0.86 +1.2 22
1978-05-31 Alliance Dudelange L 1-543.9 859 780 55.57% 27.30% 17.14%+0.74 -20.8 22
1978-05-31 @ Chiers Rodange W 5-143.9 780 859 17.14% 27.30% 55.57%-0.74 +20.8 20
1978-05-31 Grevenmacher W 3-242.5 931 805 60.23% 26.02% 13.75%+1.00 +2.0 25
1978-05-31 @ Differdange 03 L 2-342.5 805 931 13.75% 26.02% 60.23%-1.00 -2.0 19
1978-05-31 Avenir Beggen W 2-138.7 933 830 58.02% 26.68% 15.30%+0.87 +2.3 26
1978-05-31 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-238.7 830 933 15.30% 26.68% 58.02%-0.87 -2.3 19
1978-05-31 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-349.0 744 851 32.44% 28.69% 38.87%-0.30 -4.1 21
1978-05-31 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-249.0 851 744 38.87% 28.69% 32.44%+0.30 +4.1 23
1978-05-31 Rumelange W 7-340.4 788 824 42.19% 28.89% 28.92%+0.10 +9.7 18
1978-05-31 @ Spora Luxembourg L 3-740.4 824 788 28.92% 28.89% 42.19%-0.10 -9.7 21
1978-05-31 Progres Niedercorn L 3-451.6 830 956 29.92% 28.47% 41.62%-0.41 -3.7 18
1978-05-31 @ Stade Dudelange W 4-351.6 956 830 41.62% 28.47% 29.92%+0.41 +3.7 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-09-25 14.83% Union Luxembourg 746 2 @ Rumelange 856 0
2 1977-12-10 15.91% Union Luxembourg 730 5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 824 3
3 1978-05-31 17.14% Alliance Dudelange 780 5 @ Chiers Rodange 859 1
4 1977-09-18 18.67% Spora Luxembourg 780 1 @ Chiers Rodange 839 0
5 1978-04-08 18.74% Union Luxembourg 733 3 @ Spora Luxembourg 792 2
6 1977-09-18 18.95% Avenir Beggen 842 2 @ Differdange 03 898 1
7 1977-09-04 20.06% Rumelange 856 2 @ Differdange 03 900 1
8 1977-09-11 20.92% Chiers Rodange 827 2 @ Rumelange 862 0
9 1977-09-04 21.59% Alliance Dudelange 823 1 @ Stade Dudelange 851 0
10 1978-05-20 21.59% Spora Luxembourg 782 2 @ Grevenmacher 811 1
11 1978-03-05 22.47% Progres Niedercorn 928 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 948 1
12 1977-11-20 22.58% Spora Luxembourg 798 5 @ Alliance Dudelange 817 1
13 1977-11-05 23.43% Alliance Dudelange 810 1 @ Rumelange 821 0
14 1977-09-03 23.55% @ Union Luxembourg 731 2 Progres Niedercorn 913 1
15 1977-09-04 23.67% Grevenmacher 829 3 @ Chiers Rodange 837 1
16 1977-10-01 24.12% Grevenmacher 834 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 838 2
17 1977-09-18 25.59% Rumelange 850 2 @ Stade Dudelange 842 1
18 1977-10-15 25.71% Avenir Beggen 831 3 @ Alliance Dudelange 822 2
19 1978-05-20 25.78% @ Alliance Dudelange 775 2 Differdange 03 936 1
20 1977-10-22 26.15% Grevenmacher 830 1 @ Alliance Dudelange 816 0
21 1978-03-04 26.17% Avenir Beggen 839 1 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 825 0
22 1977-10-01 27.14% Spora Luxembourg 782 6 @ Union Luxembourg 760 1
23 1977-09-10 27.17% Jeunesse Esch 929 3 @ Progres Niedercorn 907 0
24 1978-03-12 27.24% @ Alliance Dudelange 793 3 Jeunesse Esch 942 1
25 1977-12-18 27.78% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 814 2 Jeunesse Esch 958 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-10-01 20.92 Spora Luxembourg 6 782 27.14% @ Union Luxembourg 1 760 44.04% 28.82%
2 1978-05-31 20.82 Alliance Dudelange 5 780 17.14% @ Chiers Rodange 1 859 55.57% 27.30%
3 1977-11-20 18.67 Spora Luxembourg 5 798 22.58% @ Alliance Dudelange 1 817 49.01% 28.41%
4 1978-04-02 16.13 Differdange 03 5 921 30.07% @ Chiers Rodange 1 876 41.01% 28.92%
5 1977-09-10 15.68 Jeunesse Esch 3 929 27.17% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 907 44.01% 28.82%
6 1977-10-22 14.82 @ Progres Niedercorn 6 906 54.75% Rumelange 0 836 17.77% 27.48%
7 1977-11-05 14.43 @ Chiers Rodange 3 849 31.62% Jeunesse Esch 0 963 39.75% 28.63%
8 1978-05-20 14.36 @ Avenir Beggen 4 816 43.87% Rumelange 0 839 27.30% 28.83%
9 1978-03-11 14.17 Differdange 03 3 906 32.39% @ Avenir Beggen 0 844 38.68% 28.93%
10 1977-09-25 13.81 Union Luxembourg 2 746 14.83% @ Rumelange 0 856 58.67% 26.50%
11 1977-12-11 13.09 @ Rumelange 4 820 47.19% Spora Luxembourg 0 816 24.21% 28.60%
12 1978-04-09 12.86 Chiers Rodange 4 860 28.59% @ Avenir Beggen 1 826 42.53% 28.88%
13 1977-09-11 12.21 Chiers Rodange 2 827 20.92% @ Rumelange 0 862 50.92% 28.16%
14 1978-05-06 12.00 @ Spora Luxembourg 7 770 44.70% Alliance Dudelange 2 787 26.52% 28.78%
15 1978-04-09 11.90 Progres Niedercorn 5 940 44.41% @ Alliance Dudelange 1 793 27.42% 28.17%
16 1977-10-01 11.79 @ Chiers Rodange 5 825 44.45% Avenir Beggen 1 843 26.76% 28.80%
17 1978-04-29 10.78 @ Avenir Beggen 3 809 44.60% Grevenmacher 0 826 26.61% 28.79%
18 1977-12-18 10.73 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 814 27.78% Jeunesse Esch 0 958 44.01% 28.22%
19 1977-09-04 10.01 Grevenmacher 3 829 23.67% @ Chiers Rodange 1 837 47.79% 28.54%
20 1977-10-15 9.90 Progres Niedercorn 2 896 31.66% @ Grevenmacher 0 840 39.41% 28.93%
21 1977-12-10 9.89 Union Luxembourg 5 730 15.91% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 824 57.19% 26.90%
22 1978-05-31 9.68 @ Spora Luxembourg 7 788 42.19% Rumelange 3 824 28.92% 28.89%
23 1978-03-12 9.67 Chiers Rodange 2 866 32.86% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 801 38.22% 28.92%
24 1978-04-02 9.63 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 817 48.55% Alliance Dudelange 0 802 22.99% 28.46%
25 1978-03-12 9.40 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 793 27.24% Jeunesse Esch 1 942 44.62% 28.14%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-11-20 61.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 921 48.47% Differdange 03 4 907 23.06% 28.47%
2 1978-05-20 60.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 934 65.85% Union Luxembourg 3 743 10.28% 23.88%
3 1978-03-05 59.4 @ Differdange 03 3 907 58.45% Spora Luxembourg 3 800 14.99% 26.56%
4 1977-11-05 58.8 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 798 30.33% Progres Niedercorn 3 921 41.16% 28.51%
5 1978-04-09 58.8 @ Grevenmacher 3 830 47.14% Etzella Ettelbruck 3 827 24.25% 28.60%
6 1977-11-20 58.7 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 828 42.23% Chiers Rodange 3 864 28.88% 28.89%
7 1977-12-10 55.0 Union Luxembourg 5 730 15.91% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 824 57.19% 26.90%
8 1978-04-08 55.0 Union Luxembourg 3 733 18.74% @ Spora Luxembourg 2 792 53.54% 27.72%
9 1978-04-02 54.8 @ Stade Dudelange 2 825 50.72% Spora Luxembourg 2 791 21.09% 28.19%
10 1977-10-15 54.7 @ Rumelange 2 836 47.17% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 833 24.23% 28.60%
11 1977-11-20 54.7 @ Grevenmacher 2 835 49.18% Rumelange 2 815 22.43% 28.39%
12 1978-04-23 54.7 @ Differdange 03 2 942 48.29% Jeunesse Esch 2 930 23.22% 28.49%
13 1978-04-23 54.7 @ Rumelange 2 838 31.22% Progres Niedercorn 2 954 40.19% 28.59%
14 1977-10-01 54.6 @ Stade Dudelange 2 841 39.02% Differdange 03 2 900 32.05% 28.93%
15 1977-10-01 53.4 Grevenmacher 3 834 24.12% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 838 47.29% 28.59%
16 1977-10-15 52.9 Avenir Beggen 3 831 25.71% @ Alliance Dudelange 2 822 45.56% 28.73%
17 1977-09-25 52.6 @ Alliance Dudelange 5 825 44.65% Etzella Ettelbruck 4 842 26.56% 28.79%
18 1978-05-31 51.6 Progres Niedercorn 4 956 41.62% @ Stade Dudelange 3 830 29.92% 28.47%
19 1977-09-25 51.4 Stade Dudelange 3 836 30.68% @ Spora Luxembourg 2 787 40.39% 28.93%
20 1977-11-19 50.9 @ Avenir Beggen 1 846 59.48% Union Luxembourg 1 728 14.26% 26.26%
21 1978-04-09 50.9 @ Differdange 03 1 937 58.99% Stade Dudelange 1 824 14.61% 26.40%
22 1978-04-01 50.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 932 58.11% Grevenmacher 1 829 15.23% 26.66%
23 1978-05-20 50.8 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 958 57.77% Chiers Rodange 1 857 15.48% 26.75%
24 1977-09-03 50.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 930 57.54% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 833 15.65% 26.81%
25 1977-09-11 50.7 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 830 57.05% Union Luxembourg 1 737 16.01% 26.94%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-12-18 28.9 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 925 65.36% Union Luxembourg 0 740 10.55% 24.09%
2 1978-04-29 29.0 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 954 64.97% Spora Luxembourg 0 774 10.78% 24.26%
3 1977-10-22 29.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 6 906 54.75% Rumelange 0 836 17.77% 27.48%
4 1977-09-25 29.9 @ Differdange 03 3 892 53.60% Chiers Rodange 0 833 18.69% 27.71%
5 1977-12-11 30.8 @ Rumelange 4 820 47.19% Spora Luxembourg 0 816 24.21% 28.60%
6 1977-11-27 30.9 @ Differdange 03 2 907 58.64% Alliance Dudelange 0 798 14.85% 26.51%
7 1978-04-02 31.4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 817 48.55% Alliance Dudelange 0 802 22.99% 28.46%
8 1978-05-20 31.8 @ Avenir Beggen 4 816 43.87% Rumelange 0 839 27.30% 28.83%
9 1977-11-20 32.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 7 948 59.85% Stade Dudelange 2 826 14.01% 26.14%
10 1978-04-29 32.6 @ Avenir Beggen 3 809 44.60% Grevenmacher 0 826 26.61% 28.79%
11 1977-10-15 32.7 @ Differdange 03 6 900 63.36% Union Luxembourg 2 739 11.73% 24.91%
12 1978-04-29 32.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 930 54.00% Chiers Rodange 1 867 18.37% 27.63%
13 1977-10-01 33.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 948 58.35% Rumelange 1 842 15.06% 26.59%
14 1978-03-05 33.7 @ Chiers Rodange 2 860 49.47% Rumelange 0 837 22.17% 28.35%
15 1977-10-01 34.3 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 890 53.79% Alliance Dudelange 1 828 18.54% 27.67%
16 1978-04-15 34.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 926 61.53% Spora Luxembourg 1 786 12.88% 25.58%
17 1977-11-05 35.0 @ Stade Dudelange 1 823 57.10% Union Luxembourg 0 730 15.97% 26.93%
18 1978-04-02 35.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 936 58.30% Avenir Beggen 1 830 15.10% 26.60%
19 1977-10-01 35.7 @ Chiers Rodange 5 825 44.45% Avenir Beggen 1 843 26.76% 28.80%
20 1977-12-11 35.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 921 57.55% Stade Dudelange 1 823 15.64% 26.81%
21 1978-04-09 35.8 Progres Niedercorn 5 940 44.41% @ Alliance Dudelange 1 793 27.42% 28.17%
22 1977-10-22 36.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 960 53.05% Differdange 03 0 905 19.14% 27.81%
23 1977-10-22 36.3 @ Avenir Beggen 4 837 47.34% Stade Dudelange 1 832 24.08% 28.58%
24 1978-03-11 36.3 Differdange 03 3 906 32.39% @ Avenir Beggen 0 844 38.68% 28.93%
25 1977-11-05 36.5 @ Chiers Rodange 3 849 31.62% Jeunesse Esch 0 963 39.75% 28.63%