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1978-79 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Differdange 03

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Differdange 03

5.88 points above expected

34 points · 28.12 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Young Boys Diekirch

12.70 points below expected

8 points · 20.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Differdange 03 22 14 6 2 34 60 19 +41 28.12 +5.88
2 Progres Niedercorn 22 13 8 1 34 61 25 +36 29.57 +4.43
3 Union Luxembourg 22 11 3 8 25 56 32 +24 25.07 -0.07
4 Avenir Beggen 22 7 10 5 24 35 27 +8 22.20 +1.80
5 Jeunesse Esch 22 9 6 7 24 35 34 +1 22.91 +1.09
6 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 8 6 8 22 43 48 -5 21.53 +0.47
7 Aris Bonnevoie 22 7 6 9 20 24 46 -22 17.90 +2.10
8 Grevenmacher 22 6 7 9 19 23 33 -10 19.77 -0.77
9 Chiers Rodange 22 9 1 12 19 30 48 -18 17.55 +1.45
10 Rumelange 22 5 8 9 18 22 29 -7 20.17 -2.17
11 Alliance Dudelange 22 5 7 10 17 20 32 -12 18.51 -1.51
12 Young Boys Diekirch 22 3 2 17 8 28 64 -36 20.70 -12.70

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Differdange 03 34 28.12 +5.88
2 Progres Niedercorn 34 29.57 +4.43
3 Aris Bonnevoie 20 17.90 +2.10
4 Avenir Beggen 24 22.20 +1.80
5 Chiers Rodange 19 17.55 +1.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Young Boys Diekirch 8 20.70 -12.70
2 Rumelange 18 20.17 -2.17
3 Alliance Dudelange 17 18.51 -1.51
4 Grevenmacher 19 19.77 -0.77
5 Union Luxembourg 25 25.07 -0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chiers Rodange 4 Sep 24 – Oct 22 1 in 252
2 Union Luxembourg 4 Sep 3 – Sep 24 1 in 59
3 Differdange 03 7 Mar 11 – May 27 1 in 48
4 Jeunesse Esch 3 Feb 18 – Mar 11 1 in 31
5 Avenir Beggen 2 Mar 28 – Apr 1 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Young Boys Diekirch 6 Sep 30 – Nov 12 1 in 268
2 Union Luxembourg 4 Mar 28 – May 20 1 in 221
3 Jeunesse Esch 4 Sep 10 – Sep 30 1 in 83
4 Chiers Rodange 4 Oct 29 – Nov 19 1 in 37
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 Dec 3 – Mar 4 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Progres Niedercorn 17 Sep 3 – Apr 1 1 in 57
2 Differdange 03 10 Sep 3 – Nov 12 1 in 21
3 Grevenmacher 5 Sep 10 – Oct 15 1 in 20
4 Aris Bonnevoie 4 Apr 1 – May 20 1 in 17
5 Chiers Rodange 4 Sep 24 – Oct 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union Luxembourg 6 Mar 11 – May 20 1 in 62
2 Young Boys Diekirch 10 Sep 30 – Mar 4 1 in 50
3 Alliance Dudelange 8 Nov 5 – Mar 19 1 in 24
4 Avenir Beggen 7 Sep 10 – Oct 29 1 in 24
5 Rumelange 7 Sep 17 – Nov 5 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Differdange 03 1193 34 +49 8 7.2 +0.8
Progres Niedercorn 1179 34 -1 7 7.4 -0.4
Union Luxembourg 1020 25 -50 4 5.6 -1.6
Avenir Beggen 1028 24 +17 7 5.8 +1.2
Jeunesse Esch 1043 24 +33 6 5.2 +0.8
Etzella Ettelbruck 974 22 +47 8 5.1 +2.9
Aris Bonnevoie 881 20 +6 5 4.3 +0.7
Chiers Rodange 877 19 +35 6 3.7 +2.3
Grevenmacher 920 19 -35 3 4.2 -1.2
Rumelange 917 18 -17 4 4.6 -0.6
Alliance Dudelange 905 17 -9 3 3.7 -0.7
Young Boys Diekirch 856 8 -76 0 3.7 -3.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB AB CR D0 EE GRE JE PN RUM UL YBD
Alliance Dudelange —
0-1-1
3.02
0-2-0
2.28
0-0-2
2.78
0-0-2
1.68
0-1-1
2.30
2-0-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
1.57
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
2.39
Aris Bonnevoie
1-1-0
2.42
 —
0-2-0
2.21
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
1.44
1-0-1
2.20
2-0-0
2.32
0-2-0
1.97
0-0-2
1.55
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
2.43
Avenir Beggen
0-2-0
3.16
0-2-0
3.24
 —
2-0-0
3.44
0-1-1
1.96
1-1-0
2.86
0-2-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.65
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.12
1-1-0
3.37
Chiers Rodange
2-0-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.01
 —
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.67
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
1.58
2-0-0
2.27
Differdange 03
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
3.48
2-0-0
3.62
 —
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.71
0-2-0
2.35
1-1-0
3.59
0-0-2
3.51
2-0-0
3.91
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
3.24
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.24
 —
0-1-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.51
0-2-0
1.43
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.69
Grevenmacher
0-0-2
2.78
0-0-2
3.12
0-2-0
2.28
2-0-0
2.78
0-0-2
1.34
1-1-0
2.28
 —
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
1.58
0-2-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.21
2-0-0
2.65
Jeunesse Esch
1-1-0
3.13
0-2-0
3.48
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
3.29
 —
1-0-1
1.71
2-0-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.58
Progres Niedercorn
1-1-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
4.00
0-2-0
3.09
0-2-0
4.04
1-1-0
3.89
1-0-1
3.74
 —
0-2-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.08
2-0-0
4.08
Rumelange
0-1-1
3.05
0-1-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
3.05
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.50
0-2-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.56
0-2-0
1.31
 —
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
2.44
Union Luxembourg
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
3.89
2-0-0
1.94
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.95
0-0-2
2.37
0-1-1
3.53
 —
2-0-0
3.23
Young Boys Diekirch
0-0-2
3.05
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
3.17
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.78
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-2
1.41
0-0-2
3.01
0-0-2
2.21
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +3.9
Allowed 0.59 -4.3
Differential 0.88 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%5.30%4.55%3.41%2.27%1.52%24.62%
15.30%12.88%5.68%5.30%1.14%1.14%31.44%
24.55%5.68%4.55%1.89%0.76%2.27%19.70%
33.41%5.30%1.89%1.52%1.52%—13.64%
42.27%1.14%0.76%1.52%——5.68%
5+1.52%1.14%2.27%———4.92%
Total24.62%31.44%19.70%13.64%5.68%4.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.66 +0.00
SD 1.59 1.59 2.35
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%13.64%———40.91%
19.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%—4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.45 -0.55
SD 1.06 1.50 1.50
CV 1.17 1.03 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%—4.55%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
19.09%9.09%—9.09%—4.55%31.82%
2—9.09%——4.55%4.55%18.18%
3—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%13.64%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.09 -1.00
SD 1.06 2.20 2.29
CV 0.98 1.05 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—4.55%———18.18%
19.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%——45.45%
2—4.55%9.09%——4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total31.82%31.82%27.27%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.23 +0.36
SD 1.59 1.23 1.87
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%9.09%13.64%—31.82%
113.64%—4.55%9.09%——27.27%
2—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
3—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%18.18%18.18%36.36%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.18 -0.82
SD 1.26 1.30 2.02
CV 0.92 0.59 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—————4.55%
14.55%13.64%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
213.64%—4.55%———18.18%
39.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
413.64%4.55%————18.18%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total50.00%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 0.86 +1.86
SD 1.96 1.13 2.38
CV 0.72 1.30 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
1—13.64%9.09%9.09%——31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%——9.09%27.27%
34.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
4——4.55%9.09%——13.64%
5+———————
Total13.64%22.73%27.27%22.73%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 2.18 -0.23
SD 1.21 1.68 1.82
CV 0.62 0.77 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%—4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
14.55%13.64%——4.55%—22.73%
213.64%—9.09%4.55%——27.27%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%36.36%9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.50 -0.45
SD 1.05 1.77 2.28
CV 1.00 1.18 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
14.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%—4.55%18.18%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total22.73%45.45%9.09%13.64%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.55 +0.05
SD 1.30 1.60 2.26
CV 0.82 1.03 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—————4.55%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
24.55%4.55%18.18%———27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
Total27.27%36.36%31.82%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 1.14 +1.64
SD 1.88 0.89 2.01
CV 0.68 0.78 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—45.45%
1—13.64%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
2—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%——4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%45.45%18.18%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.32 -0.32
SD 1.11 1.17 1.49
CV 1.11 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—13.64%——18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+13.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
Total22.73%31.82%22.73%22.73%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.45 +1.09
SD 2.44 1.10 3.05
CV 0.96 0.76 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%——9.09%22.73%
1—4.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3—9.09%——4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%22.73%27.27%13.64%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 2.91 -1.64
SD 0.98 2.09 2.46
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Differdange 03 1193 34 28.12 +5.88 99.0% 20 23 25 28 30 33 35
Progres Niedercorn 1179 34 29.57 +4.43 91.0% 19 23 27 30 32 36 37
Jeunesse Esch 1043 24 22.91 +1.09 63.0% 14 16 20 23 26 28 36
Avenir Beggen 1028 24 22.20 +1.80 71.0% 13 16 19 23 25 28 30
Union Luxembourg 1020 25 25.07 -0.07 55.0% 17 19 23 25 27 31 36
Etzella Ettelbruck 974 22 21.53 +0.47 61.0% 12 15 19 22 24 27 29
Grevenmacher 920 19 19.77 -0.77 47.0% 11 13 17 20 22 27 32
Rumelange 917 18 20.17 -2.17 29.0% 12 15 18 20 22 26 29
Alliance Dudelange 905 17 18.51 -1.51 41.0% 9 12 16 18 21 25 27
Aris Bonnevoie 881 20 17.90 +2.10 79.0% 10 12 15 18 20 24 30
Chiers Rodange 877 19 17.55 +1.45 70.0% 9 12 15 18 20 23 27
Young Boys Diekirch 856 8 20.70 -12.70 0.0% 11 14 18 21 23 25 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.85%
Slight Edge
41.67%26.52%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.33 Elo pts.
134 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Differdange 03, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.51 * Lucky: 4.51 to 6.01 * Wild Swing: 6.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.68 * Close: 1.68 to 2.52 * Off: 2.52 to 3.36 * Way Off: 3.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.42 points
Some Luck
03.769
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Pinpoint
02.105
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.00%
Differdange 03
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Young Boys Diekirch
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 113.56
1.78
Moderate Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Occasional
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.14
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1540.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Differdange 0332.00%34.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%1.00%—1.00%————
Progres Niedercorn52.00%27.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%—————
Union Luxembourg7.00%20.00%21.00%17.00%12.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%—
Avenir Beggen1.00%5.00%17.00%13.00%10.00%14.00%8.00%10.00%5.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%
Jeunesse Esch2.00%7.00%14.00%21.00%12.00%12.00%4.00%12.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%3.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck1.00%1.00%7.00%11.00%12.00%19.00%17.00%5.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%
Aris Bonnevoie—1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%12.00%11.00%11.00%25.00%21.00%
Grevenmacher4.00%1.00%3.00%3.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%8.00%12.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%
Chiers Rodange—1.00%—2.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%21.00%12.00%19.00%23.00%
Rumelange1.00%—8.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%16.00%14.00%16.00%11.00%8.00%8.00%
Alliance Dudelange—2.00%2.00%5.00%7.00%4.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%22.00%17.00%13.00%
Young Boys Diekirch—1.00%7.00%6.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Differdange 03 100% —
Progres Niedercorn 100% —
Union Luxembourg 99.00% 1.00%
Jeunesse Esch 96.00% 4.00%
Etzella Ettelbruck 92.00% 8.00%
Avenir Beggen 90.00% 10.00%
Rumelange 84.00% 16.00%
Young Boys Diekirch 83.00% 17.00%
Grevenmacher 74.00% 26.00%
Alliance Dudelange 70.00% 30.00%
Chiers Rodange 58.00% 42.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 54.00% 46.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1978-09-03 Rumelange W 1-039.6 968 952 45.13% 27.99% 26.88%+0.38 +7.9 2
1978-09-03 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-139.6 952 968 26.88% 27.99% 45.13%-0.38 -7.9 0
1978-09-03 Alliance Dudelange W 1-039.3 971 947 46.14% 27.95% 25.91%+0.44 +7.6 2
1978-09-03 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-139.3 947 971 25.91% 27.95% 46.14%-0.44 -7.6 0
1978-09-03 Differdange 03 D 3-359.2 981 1026 36.85% 28.11% 35.04%-0.08 -0.1 1
1978-09-03 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 3-359.2 1026 981 35.04% 28.11% 36.85%+0.08 +0.0 1
1978-09-03 Young Boys Diekirch W 4-248.1 1027 1074 36.64% 28.11% 35.26%-0.09 +14.0 2
1978-09-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-448.1 1074 1027 35.26% 28.11% 36.64%+0.09 -14.0 0
1978-09-03 Aris Bonnevoie W 7-133.8 1040 946 54.04% 27.33% 18.63%+0.96 +25.4 2
1978-09-03 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-733.8 946 1040 18.63% 27.33% 54.04%-0.96 -25.4 0
1978-09-03 Grevenmacher W 7-036.8 911 951 37.67% 28.11% 34.22%-0.04 +57.0 2
1978-09-03 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-736.8 951 911 34.22% 28.11% 37.67%+0.04 -57.0 0
1978-09-10 Progres Niedercorn D 1-150.8 939 1065 26.14% 27.71% 46.15%-0.69 +1.1 1
1978-09-10 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.8 1065 939 46.15% 27.71% 26.14%+0.69 -1.1 3
1978-09-10 Avenir Beggen D 1-150.7 920 976 35.33% 28.09% 36.58%-0.16 +0.1 1
1978-09-10 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-150.7 976 920 36.58% 28.09% 35.33%+0.16 -0.1 3
1978-09-10 Chiers Rodange W 4-032.8 1026 979 48.93% 27.79% 23.28%+0.61 +25.2 3
1978-09-10 @ Differdange 03 L 0-432.8 979 1026 23.28% 27.79% 48.93%-0.61 -25.2 2
1978-09-10 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-150.7 894 981 31.03% 27.98% 40.99%-0.40 +0.5 1
1978-09-10 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.7 981 894 40.99% 27.98% 31.03%+0.40 -0.5 2
1978-09-10 Union Luxembourg L 0-541.0 1041 968 51.72% 27.57% 20.71%+0.80 -57.7 2
1978-09-10 @ Jeunesse Esch W 5-041.0 968 1041 20.71% 27.57% 51.72%-0.80 +57.7 4
1978-09-10 Rumelange L 1-350.1 1059 944 56.11% 27.06% 16.83%+1.12 -23.0 0
1978-09-10 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 3-150.1 944 1059 16.83% 27.06% 56.11%-1.12 +23.0 2
1978-09-17 Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.7 976 940 47.54% 27.88% 24.58%+0.52 -1.2 4
1978-09-17 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-150.7 940 976 24.58% 27.88% 47.54%-0.52 +1.2 2
1978-09-17 Grevenmacher L 1-348.5 953 894 50.24% 27.70% 22.06%+0.70 -20.8 2
1978-09-17 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-148.5 894 953 22.06% 27.70% 50.24%-0.70 +20.8 3
1978-09-17 Jeunesse Esch W 2-037.7 981 983 42.68% 28.07% 29.26%+0.24 +15.8 4
1978-09-17 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-237.7 983 981 29.26% 28.07% 42.68%-0.24 -15.8 2
1978-09-17 Differdange 03 D 1-150.7 1064 1052 44.68% 28.01% 27.32%+0.35 -0.9 4
1978-09-17 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-150.7 1052 1064 27.32% 28.01% 44.68%-0.35 +0.9 4
1978-09-17 Young Boys Diekirch W 6-035.1 1026 1036 41.65% 28.09% 30.26%+0.18 +45.0 6
1978-09-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-635.1 1036 1026 30.26% 28.09% 41.65%-0.18 -45.0 0
1978-09-17 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.2 967 920 48.82% 27.80% 23.38%+0.60 -1.5 3
1978-09-17 @ Rumelange D 0-047.2 920 967 23.38% 27.80% 48.82%-0.60 +1.6 2
1978-09-24 Rumelange W 2-038.6 941 965 39.78% 28.11% 32.11%+0.08 +16.9 4
1978-09-24 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-238.6 965 941 32.11% 28.11% 39.78%-0.08 -16.9 3
1978-09-24 Avenir Beggen D 0-047.3 1052 975 52.29% 27.52% 20.20%+0.84 -2.0 5
1978-09-24 @ Differdange 03 D 0-047.3 975 1052 20.20% 27.52% 52.29%-0.84 +2.0 5
1978-09-24 Progres Niedercorn D 2-255.4 915 1063 23.69% 27.50% 48.82%-0.85 +1.0 4
1978-09-24 @ Grevenmacher D 2-255.4 1063 915 48.82% 27.50% 23.69%+0.85 -1.0 5
1978-09-24 Chiers Rodange L 2-354.4 967 933 47.39% 27.89% 24.72%+0.52 -10.8 2
1978-09-24 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-254.4 933 967 24.72% 27.89% 47.39%-0.52 +10.8 4
1978-09-24 Etzella Ettelbruck W 5-240.7 1071 996 51.96% 27.55% 20.49%+0.81 +12.7 8
1978-09-24 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-540.7 996 1071 20.49% 27.55% 51.96%-0.81 -12.7 4
1978-09-24 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-139.7 991 922 51.42% 27.60% 20.98%+0.78 +10.6 2
1978-09-24 @ Young Boys Diekirch L 1-339.7 922 991 20.98% 27.60% 51.42%-0.78 -10.6 2
1978-09-30 Alliance Dudelange W 2-146.3 911 958 36.60% 28.11% 35.30%-0.09 +9.1 4
1978-09-30 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-246.3 958 911 35.30% 28.11% 36.60%+0.09 -9.1 4
1978-09-30 Grevenmacher D 2-255.4 977 916 50.40% 27.69% 21.91%+0.71 -1.2 6
1978-09-30 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-255.4 916 977 21.91% 27.69% 50.40%-0.71 +1.2 5
1978-09-30 Union Luxembourg W 1-045.7 943 1084 24.56% 27.58% 47.86%-0.79 +12.2 6
1978-09-30 @ Chiers Rodange L 0-145.7 1084 943 47.86% 27.58% 24.56%+0.79 -12.2 8
1978-09-30 Young Boys Diekirch W 3-249.6 984 1002 40.58% 28.10% 31.32%+0.12 +7.9 6
1978-09-30 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-349.6 1002 984 31.32% 28.10% 40.58%-0.12 -7.9 2
1978-09-30 Jeunesse Esch W 6-237.3 1062 957 55.17% 27.19% 17.64%+1.05 +14.2 7
1978-09-30 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-637.3 957 1062 17.64% 27.19% 55.17%-1.05 -14.2 2
1978-09-30 Differdange 03 D 1-150.7 948 1050 29.13% 27.90% 42.98%-0.50 +0.7 4
1978-09-30 @ Rumelange D 1-150.7 1050 948 42.98% 27.90% 29.13%+0.50 -0.7 6
1978-10-15 Young Boys Diekirch W 2-146.3 949 994 36.86% 28.11% 35.03%-0.08 +9.0 6
1978-10-15 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-246.3 994 949 35.03% 28.11% 36.86%+0.08 -9.0 2
1978-10-15 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-031.3 1050 920 57.41% 26.86% 15.72%+1.22 +13.9 8
1978-10-15 @ Differdange 03 L 0-331.3 920 1050 15.72% 26.86% 57.41%-1.22 -13.9 4
1978-10-15 Chiers Rodange L 3-457.7 992 956 47.53% 27.88% 24.59%+0.52 -10.6 6
1978-10-15 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-357.7 956 992 24.59% 27.88% 47.53%-0.52 +10.6 8
1978-10-15 Rumelange D 0-047.1 917 949 38.72% 28.11% 33.17%+0.02 -0.3 6
1978-10-15 @ Grevenmacher D 0-047.1 949 917 33.17% 28.11% 38.72%-0.02 +0.3 5
1978-10-15 Avenir Beggen D 1-150.7 942 976 38.54% 28.11% 33.34%+0.01 -0.3 3
1978-10-15 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.7 976 942 33.34% 28.11% 38.54%-0.01 +0.3 7
1978-10-15 Progres Niedercorn L 0-339.7 1072 1077 42.37% 28.07% 29.56%+0.22 -30.2 8
1978-10-15 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-039.7 1077 1072 29.56% 28.07% 42.37%-0.22 +30.2 9
1978-10-22 Differdange 03 L 0-237.5 958 1064 28.68% 27.87% 43.45%-0.53 -15.5 6
1978-10-22 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-037.5 1064 958 43.45% 27.87% 28.68%+0.53 +15.5 10
1978-10-22 Grevenmacher W 3-249.3 906 917 41.61% 28.09% 30.30%+0.18 +7.7 6
1978-10-22 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-349.3 917 906 30.30% 28.09% 41.61%-0.18 -7.7 6
1978-10-22 Union Luxembourg L 1-245.9 976 1041 33.96% 28.07% 37.97%-0.23 -8.8 7
1978-10-22 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-145.9 1041 976 37.97% 28.07% 33.96%+0.23 +8.8 10
1978-10-22 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-151.0 1107 981 57.08% 26.91% 16.00%+1.20 -2.4 10
1978-10-22 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-151.0 981 1107 16.00% 26.91% 57.08%-1.20 +2.4 7
1978-10-22 Jeunesse Esch L 0-242.2 949 942 43.98% 28.03% 27.98%+0.31 -21.5 5
1978-10-22 @ Rumelange W 2-042.2 942 949 27.98% 28.03% 43.98%-0.31 +21.5 5
1978-10-22 Chiers Rodange L 1-249.3 985 966 45.44% 27.98% 26.58%+0.40 -11.0 2
1978-10-22 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 2-149.3 966 985 26.58% 27.98% 45.44%-0.40 +11.0 10
1978-10-29 Progres Niedercorn L 0-433.6 977 1104 26.06% 27.70% 46.23%-0.69 -27.4 10
1978-10-29 @ Chiers Rodange W 4-033.6 1104 977 46.23% 27.70% 26.06%+0.69 +27.4 12
1978-10-29 Young Boys Diekirch W 1-036.6 1079 974 55.09% 27.20% 17.71%+1.04 +5.6 12
1978-10-29 @ Differdange 03 L 0-136.6 974 1079 17.71% 27.20% 55.09%-1.04 -5.6 2
1978-10-29 Avenir Beggen D 1-150.7 983 967 45.12% 27.99% 26.88%+0.38 -1.0 8
1978-10-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-150.7 967 983 26.88% 27.99% 45.12%-0.38 +1.0 8
1978-10-29 Alliance Dudelange L 0-143.1 909 943 38.53% 28.11% 33.36%+0.01 -10.2 6
1978-10-29 @ Grevenmacher W 1-043.1 943 909 33.36% 28.11% 38.53%-0.01 +10.2 8
1978-10-29 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.2 964 914 49.14% 27.78% 23.08%+0.63 -1.6 6
1978-10-29 @ Jeunesse Esch D 0-047.2 914 964 23.08% 27.78% 49.14%-0.63 +1.6 7
1978-10-29 Rumelange D 1-151.0 1050 928 56.74% 26.97% 16.30%+1.17 -2.3 11
1978-10-29 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-151.0 928 1050 16.30% 26.97% 56.74%-1.17 +2.3 6
1978-11-05 Jeunesse Esch L 1-346.1 953 962 41.81% 28.08% 30.10%+0.19 -17.8 8
1978-11-05 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-146.1 962 953 30.10% 28.08% 41.81%-0.19 +17.8 8
1978-11-05 Union Luxembourg L 2-837.1 916 1048 25.47% 27.66% 46.87%-0.73 -26.9 7
1978-11-05 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 8-237.1 1048 916 46.87% 27.66% 25.47%+0.73 +26.9 13
1978-11-05 Chiers Rodange W 4-033.9 968 950 45.34% 27.98% 26.68%+0.39 +28.0 10
1978-11-05 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-433.9 950 968 26.68% 27.98% 45.34%-0.39 -28.0 10
1978-11-05 Grevenmacher W 4-134.4 1085 899 62.16% 25.91% 11.94%+1.64 +9.2 14
1978-11-05 @ Differdange 03 L 1-434.4 899 1085 11.94% 25.91% 62.16%-1.64 -9.1 6
1978-11-05 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-246.5 930 982 35.88% 28.10% 36.02%-0.13 -9.2 6
1978-11-05 @ Rumelange W 2-146.5 982 930 36.02% 28.10% 35.88%+0.13 +9.2 10
1978-11-05 Progres Niedercorn L 1-340.0 968 1132 22.10% 27.33% 50.58%-0.96 -11.0 2
1978-11-05 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 3-140.0 1132 968 50.58% 27.33% 22.10%+0.96 +11.0 14
1978-11-12 Rumelange L 0-339.9 922 921 43.12% 28.06% 28.82%+0.26 -30.7 10
1978-11-12 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-039.9 921 922 28.82% 28.06% 43.12%-0.26 +30.7 8
1978-11-12 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-251.9 992 889 54.87% 27.23% 17.90%+1.02 -13.0 10
1978-11-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-151.9 889 992 17.90% 27.23% 54.87%-1.02 +13.0 9
1978-11-12 Young Boys Diekirch W 2-040.4 890 958 33.68% 28.06% 38.26%-0.25 +19.2 8
1978-11-12 @ Grevenmacher L 0-240.4 958 890 38.26% 28.06% 33.68%+0.25 -19.2 2
1978-11-12 Differdange 03 D 1-150.8 980 1094 27.62% 27.81% 44.57%-0.60 +0.9 9
1978-11-12 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.8 1094 980 44.57% 27.81% 27.62%+0.60 -0.9 15
1978-11-12 Avenir Beggen W 2-032.9 1143 996 58.97% 26.59% 14.44%+1.35 +8.9 16
1978-11-12 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-232.9 996 1143 14.44% 26.59% 58.97%-1.35 -8.9 10
1978-11-12 Alliance Dudelange W 2-033.0 1075 935 58.35% 26.70% 14.95%+1.30 +9.2 15
1978-11-12 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-233.0 935 1075 14.95% 26.70% 58.35%-1.30 -9.2 8
1978-11-19 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-047.1 926 978 35.78% 28.10% 36.13%-0.14 +0.0 9
1978-11-19 @ Alliance Dudelange D 0-047.1 978 926 36.13% 28.10% 35.78%+0.14 -0.0 11
1978-11-19 Chiers Rodange W 3-248.5 902 891 44.38% 28.02% 27.60%+0.33 +7.2 11
1978-11-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-348.5 891 902 27.60% 28.02% 44.38%-0.33 -7.2 10
1978-11-19 Union Luxembourg L 1-444.7 1093 1084 44.20% 28.02% 27.77%+0.32 -26.4 15
1978-11-19 @ Differdange 03 W 4-144.7 1084 1093 27.77% 28.02% 44.20%-0.32 +26.4 17
1978-11-19 Jeunesse Esch W 3-038.6 909 981 33.13% 28.05% 38.82%-0.28 +28.2 10
1978-11-19 @ Grevenmacher L 0-338.6 981 909 38.82% 28.05% 33.13%+0.28 -28.2 9
1978-11-19 Progres Niedercorn D 0-047.5 952 1152 18.62% 26.84% 54.54%-1.23 +2.3 9
1978-11-19 @ Rumelange D 0-047.5 1152 952 54.54% 26.84% 18.62%+1.23 -2.3 17
1978-11-19 Avenir Beggen D 2-255.2 938 987 36.34% 28.10% 35.55%-0.11 -0.0 3
1978-11-19 @ Young Boys Diekirch D 2-255.2 987 938 35.55% 28.10% 36.34%+0.11 +0.0 11
1978-12-03 Chiers Rodange L 0-145.9 926 884 48.23% 27.84% 23.93%+0.57 -12.3 9
1978-12-03 @ Alliance Dudelange W 1-045.9 884 926 23.93% 27.84% 48.23%-0.57 +12.3 12
1978-12-03 Progres Niedercorn L 0-331.0 909 1149 15.34% 26.16% 58.50%-1.54 -13.4 11
1978-12-03 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-031.0 1149 909 58.50% 26.16% 15.34%+1.54 +13.4 19
1978-12-03 Etzella Ettelbruck W 7-236.2 1067 978 53.39% 27.40% 19.21%+0.91 +18.4 17
1978-12-03 @ Differdange 03 L 2-736.2 978 1067 19.21% 27.40% 53.39%-0.91 -18.4 11
1978-12-03 Union Luxembourg D 1-150.9 937 1110 21.13% 27.21% 51.66%-1.03 +1.7 11
1978-12-03 @ Grevenmacher D 1-150.9 1110 937 51.66% 27.21% 21.13%+1.03 -1.7 18
1978-12-03 Avenir Beggen W 2-145.8 954 987 38.57% 28.11% 33.31%+0.01 +8.7 11
1978-12-03 @ Rumelange L 1-245.8 987 954 33.31% 28.11% 38.57%-0.01 -8.7 11
1978-12-03 Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.7 938 952 41.14% 28.09% 30.77%+0.15 -0.5 4
1978-12-03 @ Young Boys Diekirch D 1-150.7 952 938 30.77% 28.09% 41.14%-0.15 +0.5 10
1979-02-18 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.3 978 895 52.83% 27.46% 19.70%+0.87 -2.1 12
1979-02-18 @ Avenir Beggen D 0-047.3 895 978 19.70% 27.46% 52.83%-0.87 +2.1 12
1979-02-18 Differdange 03 L 0-234.5 896 1085 19.63% 27.00% 53.37%-1.15 -11.5 12
1979-02-18 @ Chiers Rodange W 2-034.5 1085 896 53.37% 27.00% 19.63%+1.15 +11.5 19
1979-02-18 Grevenmacher L 0-242.6 960 939 45.71% 27.97% 26.32%+0.41 -22.1 11
1979-02-18 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-042.6 939 960 26.32% 27.97% 45.71%-0.41 +22.1 13
1979-02-18 Alliance Dudelange W 6-130.5 1163 914 66.67% 24.57% 8.76%+2.12 +10.7 21
1979-02-18 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-630.5 914 1163 8.76% 24.57% 66.67%-2.12 -10.7 9
1979-02-18 Jeunesse Esch L 0-344.4 1109 953 59.72% 26.45% 13.84%+1.42 -40.9 18
1979-02-18 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-044.4 953 1109 13.84% 26.45% 59.72%-1.42 +40.9 12
1979-02-18 Young Boys Diekirch W 2-143.5 963 938 46.22% 27.94% 25.84%+0.44 +7.2 13
1979-02-18 @ Rumelange L 1-243.5 938 963 25.84% 27.94% 46.22%-0.44 -7.2 4
1979-03-04 Avenir Beggen D 1-150.7 903 976 32.88% 28.04% 39.08%-0.29 +0.3 10
1979-03-04 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-150.7 976 903 39.08% 28.04% 32.88%+0.29 -0.3 13
1979-03-04 Progres Niedercorn D 2-255.3 1097 1174 32.39% 28.03% 39.58%-0.32 +0.3 20
1979-03-04 @ Differdange 03 D 2-255.3 1174 1097 39.58% 28.03% 32.39%+0.32 -0.3 22
1979-03-04 Chiers Rodange W 2-034.9 961 885 52.13% 27.53% 20.34%+0.83 +11.9 15
1979-03-04 @ Grevenmacher L 0-234.9 885 961 20.34% 27.53% 52.13%-0.83 -11.9 12
1979-03-04 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-140.2 994 938 49.89% 27.72% 22.39%+0.67 +11.1 14
1979-03-04 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-340.2 938 994 22.39% 27.72% 49.89%-0.67 -11.1 11
1979-03-04 Union Luxembourg L 1-537.2 931 1068 24.92% 27.61% 47.47%-0.77 -22.0 4
1979-03-04 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 5-137.2 1068 931 47.47% 27.61% 24.92%+0.77 +22.0 20
1979-03-11 Young Boys Diekirch L 0-241.4 898 908 41.57% 28.09% 30.34%+0.17 -20.5 12
1979-03-11 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-041.4 908 898 30.34% 28.09% 41.57%-0.17 +20.5 6
1979-03-11 Differdange 03 L 1-341.5 976 1097 26.81% 27.76% 45.43%-0.65 -12.8 13
1979-03-11 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-141.5 1097 976 45.43% 27.76% 26.81%+0.65 +12.8 22
1979-03-11 Jeunesse Esch L 1-243.3 873 1005 25.49% 27.66% 46.85%-0.73 -7.1 12
1979-03-11 @ Chiers Rodange W 2-143.3 1005 873 46.85% 27.66% 25.49%+0.73 +7.1 16
1979-03-11 Union Luxembourg W 2-150.7 927 1090 22.14% 27.33% 50.53%-0.96 +12.0 13
1979-03-11 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-250.7 1090 927 50.53% 27.33% 22.14%+0.96 -12.0 20
1979-03-11 Grevenmacher W 1-034.2 1173 973 63.25% 25.62% 11.13%+1.75 +3.7 24
1979-03-11 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-134.2 973 1173 11.13% 25.62% 63.25%-1.75 -3.7 15
1979-03-11 Alliance Dudelange D 0-047.3 970 903 51.11% 27.63% 21.27%+0.76 -1.9 14
1979-03-11 @ Rumelange D 0-047.3 903 970 21.27% 27.63% 51.11%-0.76 +1.8 11
1979-03-19 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-047.2 905 877 46.57% 27.93% 25.50%+0.46 -1.3 12
1979-03-19 @ Alliance Dudelange D 0-047.2 877 905 25.50% 27.93% 46.57%-0.46 +1.3 13
1979-03-19 Rumelange W 4-029.9 1110 968 58.49% 26.68% 14.83%+1.31 +17.3 24
1979-03-19 @ Differdange 03 L 0-429.9 968 1110 14.83% 26.68% 58.49%-1.31 -17.3 14
1979-03-19 Chiers Rodange D 3-360.0 1078 866 64.10% 25.39% 10.51%+1.84 -2.0 21
1979-03-19 @ Union Luxembourg D 3-360.0 866 1078 10.51% 25.39% 64.10%-1.84 +2.0 13
1979-03-19 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-142.6 929 939 41.73% 28.09% 30.19%+0.18 +14.0 8
1979-03-19 @ Young Boys Diekirch L 1-342.6 939 929 30.19% 28.09% 41.73%-0.18 -14.0 13
1979-03-28 Differdange 03 L 0-429.7 878 1127 14.75% 26.02% 59.23%-1.60 -17.0 13
1979-03-28 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-029.7 1127 878 59.23% 26.02% 14.75%+1.60 +17.0 26
1979-03-28 Jeunesse Esch W 1-042.2 963 1012 36.31% 28.10% 35.59%-0.11 +9.7 15
1979-03-28 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-142.2 1012 963 35.59% 28.10% 36.31%+0.11 -9.7 16
1979-03-28 Union Luxembourg W 2-141.0 1177 1076 54.72% 27.25% 18.03%+1.01 +5.4 26
1979-03-28 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-241.0 1076 1177 18.03% 27.25% 54.72%-1.01 -5.4 21
1979-03-28 Alliance Dudelange L 3-457.8 943 904 47.94% 27.85% 24.20%+0.55 -10.7 8
1979-03-28 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 4-357.8 904 943 24.20% 27.85% 47.94%-0.55 +10.7 14
1979-04-01 Alliance Dudelange W 2-031.0 1144 914 65.34% 25.01% 9.65%+1.97 +6.1 28
1979-04-01 @ Differdange 03 L 0-231.0 914 1144 9.65% 25.01% 65.34%-1.97 -6.1 14
1979-04-01 Progres Niedercorn D 2-255.9 925 1182 14.13% 25.84% 60.03%-1.67 +2.0 14
1979-04-01 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-255.9 1182 925 60.03% 25.84% 14.13%+1.67 -2.0 27
1979-04-01 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-147.9 969 861 55.39% 27.16% 17.45%+1.06 -13.9 15
1979-04-01 @ Grevenmacher W 1-047.9 861 969 17.45% 27.16% 55.39%-1.06 +13.9 15
1979-04-01 Rumelange W 1-038.3 1002 951 49.38% 27.76% 22.85%+0.64 +6.9 18
1979-04-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-138.3 951 1002 22.85% 27.76% 49.38%-0.64 -6.9 14
1979-04-01 Avenir Beggen L 0-343.0 1070 973 54.33% 27.29% 18.37%+0.98 -37.5 21
1979-04-01 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-043.0 973 1070 18.37% 27.29% 54.33%-0.98 +37.5 17
1979-04-21 Avenir Beggen D 0-047.1 955 1010 35.47% 28.09% 36.44%-0.15 +0.0 16
1979-04-21 @ Grevenmacher D 0-047.1 1010 955 36.44% 28.09% 35.47%+0.15 -0.1 18
1979-04-22 Rumelange W 1-043.0 875 944 33.53% 28.06% 38.41%-0.26 +10.2 17
1979-04-22 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-143.0 944 875 38.41% 28.06% 33.53%+0.26 -10.2 14
1979-04-22 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-337.4 868 927 34.90% 28.09% 37.02%-0.18 -26.1 13
1979-04-22 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-037.4 927 868 37.02% 28.09% 34.90%+0.18 +26.1 16
1979-04-22 Progres Niedercorn W 3-148.8 1009 1180 21.33% 27.23% 51.43%-1.02 +21.2 20
1979-04-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-348.8 1180 1009 51.43% 27.23% 21.33%+1.02 -21.2 27
1979-05-06 Young Boys Diekirch W 2-148.1 842 932 30.60% 27.96% 41.44%-0.42 +10.2 15
1979-05-06 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-248.1 932 842 41.44% 27.96% 30.60%+0.42 -10.2 8
1979-05-06 Grevenmacher D 1-150.7 934 955 40.11% 28.11% 31.78%+0.09 -0.4 15
1979-05-06 @ Rumelange D 1-150.7 955 934 31.78% 28.11% 40.11%-0.09 +0.4 17
1979-05-13 Grevenmacher W 1-042.2 908 956 36.50% 28.11% 35.39%-0.10 +9.6 16
1979-05-13 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-142.2 956 908 35.39% 28.11% 36.50%+0.10 -9.6 17
1979-05-13 Jeunesse Esch D 1-150.8 885 1031 24.03% 27.53% 48.44%-0.83 +1.3 18
1979-05-13 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-150.8 1031 885 48.44% 27.53% 24.03%+0.83 -1.3 21
1979-05-13 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-142.3 1010 953 50.04% 27.71% 22.25%+0.68 +6.4 20
1979-05-13 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-242.3 953 1010 22.25% 27.71% 50.04%-0.68 -6.4 16
1979-05-13 Chiers Rodange W 3-240.8 1159 852 70.20% 23.17% 6.63%+2.55 +2.0 29
1979-05-13 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-340.8 852 1159 6.63% 23.17% 70.20%-2.55 -2.0 15
1979-05-13 Union Luxembourg W 2-148.5 933 1033 29.44% 27.91% 42.65%-0.49 +10.5 17
1979-05-13 @ Rumelange L 1-248.5 1033 933 42.65% 27.91% 29.44%+0.49 -10.4 21
1979-05-13 Differdange 03 L 0-831.4 922 1150 16.30% 26.39% 57.31%-1.44 -35.7 8
1979-05-13 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 8-031.4 1150 922 57.31% 26.39% 16.30%+1.44 +35.7 30
1979-05-20 Avenir Beggen L 1-339.8 850 1017 21.76% 27.29% 50.95%-0.99 -10.8 15
1979-05-20 @ Chiers Rodange W 3-139.8 1017 850 50.95% 27.29% 21.76%+0.99 +10.8 22
1979-05-20 Rumelange W 4-352.0 947 944 43.39% 28.05% 28.57%+0.28 +7.2 18
1979-05-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 3-452.0 944 947 28.57% 28.05% 43.39%-0.28 -7.2 17
1979-05-20 Differdange 03 L 0-331.0 946 1186 15.43% 26.18% 58.39%-1.53 -13.5 17
1979-05-20 @ Grevenmacher W 3-031.0 1186 946 58.39% 26.18% 15.43%+1.53 +13.5 32
1979-05-20 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.0 1029 918 55.71% 27.12% 17.17%+1.09 -2.2 22
1979-05-20 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-151.0 918 1029 17.17% 27.12% 55.71%-1.09 +2.2 17
1979-05-20 Young Boys Diekirch W 4-132.5 1161 886 68.28% 23.97% 7.75%+2.31 +6.0 31
1979-05-20 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-432.5 886 1161 7.75% 23.97% 68.28%-2.31 -6.0 8
1979-05-20 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-350.5 1022 887 57.97% 26.77% 15.26%+1.27 -23.7 21
1979-05-20 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-150.5 887 1022 15.26% 26.77% 57.97%-1.27 +23.7 20
1979-05-27 Union Luxembourg L 0-141.2 920 999 32.19% 28.02% 39.79%-0.33 -9.0 17
1979-05-27 @ Alliance Dudelange W 1-041.2 999 920 39.79% 28.02% 32.19%+0.33 +9.0 23
1979-05-27 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-448.7 911 954 37.13% 28.11% 34.76%-0.07 -14.6 20
1979-05-27 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-248.7 954 911 34.76% 28.11% 37.13%+0.07 +14.6 20
1979-05-27 Jeunesse Esch W 3-136.9 1199 1027 61.07% 26.16% 12.77%+1.54 +6.9 34
1979-05-27 @ Differdange 03 L 1-336.9 1027 1199 12.77% 26.16% 61.07%-1.54 -6.9 22
1979-05-27 Chiers Rodange L 1-349.6 937 839 54.32% 27.30% 18.38%+0.98 -22.3 17
1979-05-27 @ Rumelange W 3-149.6 839 937 18.38% 27.30% 54.32%-0.98 +22.3 17
1979-05-27 Grevenmacher L 0-142.3 880 933 35.83% 28.10% 36.07%-0.13 -9.7 8
1979-05-27 @ Young Boys Diekirch W 1-042.3 933 880 36.07% 28.10% 35.83%+0.13 +9.7 19
1979-06-06 Progres Niedercorn L 2-541.9 1027 1167 24.64% 27.59% 47.77%-0.79 -14.6 22
1979-06-06 @ Avenir Beggen W 5-241.9 1167 1027 47.77% 27.59% 24.64%+0.79 +14.7 33
1979-06-10 Young Boys Diekirch W 7-234.6 1013 871 58.55% 26.67% 14.78%+1.32 +14.7 24
1979-06-10 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-734.6 871 1013 14.78% 26.67% 58.55%-1.32 -14.7 8
1979-06-10 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-143.6 862 896 38.37% 28.11% 33.52%+0.00 +15.1 19
1979-06-10 @ Chiers Rodange L 1-343.6 896 862 33.52% 28.11% 38.37%+0.00 -15.1 20
1979-06-10 Grevenmacher W 4-031.8 1020 942 52.28% 27.52% 20.20%+0.84 +22.5 24
1979-06-10 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-431.8 942 1020 20.20% 27.52% 52.28%-0.84 -22.5 19
1979-06-10 Rumelange D 2-256.4 1182 914 67.83% 24.15% 8.02%+2.25 -2.7 34
1979-06-10 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.4 914 1182 8.02% 24.15% 67.83%-2.25 +2.7 18
1979-06-17 Alliance Dudelange W 4-350.0 968 911 50.01% 27.72% 22.27%+0.68 +5.9 22
1979-06-17 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 3-450.0 911 968 22.27% 27.72% 50.01%-0.68 -5.9 17
1979-06-17 Differdange 03 W 2-151.7 1008 1206 18.75% 26.86% 54.39%-1.22 +12.9 25
1979-06-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-251.7 1206 1008 54.39% 26.86% 18.75%+1.22 -12.8 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1979-02-18 13.84% Jeunesse Esch 953 3 @ Union Luxembourg 1109 0
2 1979-05-20 15.26% Aris Bonnevoie 887 3 @ Union Luxembourg 1022 1
3 1978-09-10 16.83% Rumelange 944 3 @ Young Boys Diekirch 1059 1
4 1979-04-01 17.45% Aris Bonnevoie 861 1 @ Grevenmacher 969 0
5 1978-11-12 17.90% Aris Bonnevoie 889 2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 992 1
6 1979-04-01 18.37% Avenir Beggen 973 3 @ Union Luxembourg 1070 0
7 1979-05-27 18.38% Chiers Rodange 839 3 @ Rumelange 937 1
8 1979-06-17 18.75% @ Union Luxembourg 1008 2 Differdange 03 1206 1
9 1978-09-10 20.71% Union Luxembourg 968 5 @ Jeunesse Esch 1041 0
10 1979-04-22 21.33% @ Jeunesse Esch 1009 3 Progres Niedercorn 1180 1
11 1978-09-17 22.06% Grevenmacher 894 3 @ Chiers Rodange 953 1
12 1979-03-11 22.14% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 927 2 Union Luxembourg 1090 1
13 1978-12-03 23.93% Chiers Rodange 884 1 @ Alliance Dudelange 926 0
14 1979-03-28 24.20% Alliance Dudelange 904 4 @ Young Boys Diekirch 943 3
15 1978-09-30 24.56% @ Chiers Rodange 943 1 Union Luxembourg 1084 0
16 1978-10-15 24.59% Chiers Rodange 956 4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 992 3
17 1978-09-24 24.72% Chiers Rodange 933 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 967 2
18 1979-02-18 26.32% Grevenmacher 939 2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 960 0
19 1978-10-22 26.58% Chiers Rodange 966 2 @ Young Boys Diekirch 985 1
20 1978-11-19 27.77% Union Luxembourg 1084 4 @ Differdange 03 1093 1
21 1978-10-22 27.98% Jeunesse Esch 942 2 @ Rumelange 949 0
22 1978-11-12 28.82% Rumelange 921 3 @ Chiers Rodange 922 0
23 1979-05-13 29.44% @ Rumelange 933 2 Union Luxembourg 1033 1
24 1978-10-15 29.56% Progres Niedercorn 1077 3 @ Union Luxembourg 1072 0
25 1978-11-05 30.10% Jeunesse Esch 962 3 @ Alliance Dudelange 953 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-09-10 57.67 Union Luxembourg 5 968 20.71% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1041 51.72% 27.57%
2 1978-09-03 57.01 @ Union Luxembourg 7 911 37.67% Grevenmacher 0 951 34.22% 28.11%
3 1978-09-17 45.02 @ Union Luxembourg 6 1026 41.65% Young Boys Diekirch 0 1036 30.26% 28.09%
4 1979-02-18 40.94 Jeunesse Esch 3 953 13.84% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1109 59.72% 26.45%
5 1979-04-01 37.47 Avenir Beggen 3 973 18.37% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1070 54.33% 27.29%
6 1979-05-13 35.70 Differdange 03 8 1150 57.31% @ Young Boys Diekirch 0 922 16.30% 26.39%
7 1978-11-12 30.67 Rumelange 3 921 28.82% @ Chiers Rodange 0 922 43.12% 28.06%
8 1978-10-15 30.24 Progres Niedercorn 3 1077 29.56% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1072 42.37% 28.07%
9 1978-11-19 28.23 @ Grevenmacher 3 909 33.13% Jeunesse Esch 0 981 38.82% 28.05%
10 1978-11-05 27.97 @ Avenir Beggen 4 968 45.34% Chiers Rodange 0 950 26.68% 27.98%
11 1978-10-29 27.39 Progres Niedercorn 4 1104 46.23% @ Chiers Rodange 0 977 26.06% 27.70%
12 1978-11-05 26.89 Union Luxembourg 8 1048 46.87% @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 916 25.47% 27.66%
13 1978-11-19 26.39 Union Luxembourg 4 1084 27.77% @ Differdange 03 1 1093 44.20% 28.02%
14 1979-04-22 26.12 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 927 37.02% @ Chiers Rodange 0 868 34.90% 28.09%
15 1978-09-03 25.38 @ Progres Niedercorn 7 1040 54.04% Aris Bonnevoie 1 946 18.63% 27.33%
16 1978-09-10 25.17 @ Differdange 03 4 1026 48.93% Chiers Rodange 0 979 23.28% 27.79%
17 1979-05-20 23.73 Aris Bonnevoie 3 887 15.26% @ Union Luxembourg 1 1022 57.97% 26.77%
18 1978-09-10 23.02 Rumelange 3 944 16.83% @ Young Boys Diekirch 1 1059 56.11% 27.06%
19 1979-06-10 22.46 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1020 52.28% Grevenmacher 0 942 20.20% 27.52%
20 1979-05-27 22.34 Chiers Rodange 3 839 18.38% @ Rumelange 1 937 54.32% 27.30%
21 1979-02-18 22.15 Grevenmacher 2 939 26.32% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 0 960 45.71% 27.97%
22 1979-03-04 22.03 Union Luxembourg 5 1068 47.47% @ Young Boys Diekirch 1 931 24.92% 27.61%
23 1978-10-22 21.46 Jeunesse Esch 2 942 27.98% @ Rumelange 0 949 43.98% 28.03%
24 1979-04-22 21.18 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1009 21.33% Progres Niedercorn 1 1180 51.43% 27.23%
25 1978-09-17 20.82 Grevenmacher 3 894 22.06% @ Chiers Rodange 1 953 50.24% 27.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-03-19 60.0 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1078 64.10% Chiers Rodange 3 866 10.51% 25.39%
2 1978-09-03 59.2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 981 36.85% Differdange 03 3 1026 35.04% 28.11%
3 1979-03-28 57.8 Alliance Dudelange 4 904 24.20% @ Young Boys Diekirch 3 943 47.94% 27.85%
4 1978-10-15 57.7 Chiers Rodange 4 956 24.59% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 992 47.53% 27.88%
5 1979-06-10 56.4 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 1182 67.83% Rumelange 2 914 8.02% 24.15%
6 1979-04-01 55.9 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 925 14.13% Progres Niedercorn 2 1182 60.03% 25.84%
7 1978-09-24 55.4 @ Grevenmacher 2 915 23.69% Progres Niedercorn 2 1063 48.82% 27.50%
8 1978-09-30 55.4 @ Avenir Beggen 2 977 50.40% Grevenmacher 2 916 21.91% 27.69%
9 1979-03-04 55.3 @ Differdange 03 2 1097 32.39% Progres Niedercorn 2 1174 39.58% 28.03%
10 1978-11-19 55.2 @ Young Boys Diekirch 2 938 36.34% Avenir Beggen 2 987 35.55% 28.10%
11 1978-09-24 54.4 Chiers Rodange 3 933 24.72% @ Jeunesse Esch 2 967 47.39% 27.89%
12 1979-05-20 52.0 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 4 947 43.39% Rumelange 3 944 28.57% 28.05%
13 1978-11-12 51.9 Aris Bonnevoie 2 889 17.90% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 992 54.87% 27.23%
14 1979-06-17 51.7 @ Union Luxembourg 2 1008 18.75% Differdange 03 1 1206 54.39% 26.86%
15 1978-10-22 51.0 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 1107 57.08% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 981 16.00% 26.91%
16 1978-10-29 51.0 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1050 56.74% Rumelange 1 928 16.30% 26.97%
17 1979-05-20 51.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1029 55.71% Alliance Dudelange 1 918 17.17% 27.12%
18 1978-12-03 50.9 @ Grevenmacher 1 937 21.13% Union Luxembourg 1 1110 51.66% 27.21%
19 1978-09-10 50.8 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 939 26.14% Progres Niedercorn 1 1065 46.15% 27.71%
20 1978-11-12 50.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 980 27.62% Differdange 03 1 1094 44.57% 27.81%
21 1979-05-13 50.8 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 885 24.03% Jeunesse Esch 1 1031 48.44% 27.53%
22 1978-09-10 50.7 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 920 35.33% Avenir Beggen 1 976 36.58% 28.09%
23 1978-09-10 50.7 @ Grevenmacher 1 894 31.03% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 981 40.99% 27.98%
24 1978-09-17 50.7 @ Avenir Beggen 1 976 47.54% Alliance Dudelange 1 940 24.58% 27.88%
25 1978-09-17 50.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 1064 44.68% Differdange 03 1 1052 27.32% 28.01%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-03-28 29.7 Differdange 03 4 1127 59.23% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 878 14.75% 26.02%
2 1979-03-19 29.9 @ Differdange 03 4 1110 58.49% Rumelange 0 968 14.83% 26.68%
3 1979-02-18 30.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 6 1163 66.67% Alliance Dudelange 1 914 8.76% 24.57%
4 1978-12-03 31.0 Progres Niedercorn 3 1149 58.50% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 909 15.34% 26.16%
5 1979-04-01 31.0 @ Differdange 03 2 1144 65.34% Alliance Dudelange 0 914 9.65% 25.01%
6 1979-05-20 31.0 Differdange 03 3 1186 58.39% @ Grevenmacher 0 946 15.43% 26.18%
7 1978-10-15 31.3 @ Differdange 03 3 1050 57.41% Aris Bonnevoie 0 920 15.72% 26.86%
8 1979-05-13 31.4 Differdange 03 8 1150 57.31% @ Young Boys Diekirch 0 922 16.30% 26.39%
9 1979-06-10 31.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1020 52.28% Grevenmacher 0 942 20.20% 27.52%
10 1979-05-20 32.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 1161 68.28% Young Boys Diekirch 1 886 7.75% 23.97%
11 1978-09-10 32.8 @ Differdange 03 4 1026 48.93% Chiers Rodange 0 979 23.28% 27.79%
12 1978-11-12 32.9 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 1143 58.97% Avenir Beggen 0 996 14.44% 26.59%
13 1978-11-12 33.0 @ Union Luxembourg 2 1075 58.35% Alliance Dudelange 0 935 14.95% 26.70%
14 1978-10-29 33.6 Progres Niedercorn 4 1104 46.23% @ Chiers Rodange 0 977 26.06% 27.70%
15 1978-09-03 33.8 @ Progres Niedercorn 7 1040 54.04% Aris Bonnevoie 1 946 18.63% 27.33%
16 1978-11-05 33.9 @ Avenir Beggen 4 968 45.34% Chiers Rodange 0 950 26.68% 27.98%
17 1979-03-11 34.2 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 1173 63.25% Grevenmacher 0 973 11.13% 25.62%
18 1978-11-05 34.4 @ Differdange 03 4 1085 62.16% Grevenmacher 1 899 11.94% 25.91%
19 1979-02-18 34.5 Differdange 03 2 1085 53.37% @ Chiers Rodange 0 896 19.63% 27.00%
20 1979-06-10 34.6 @ Avenir Beggen 7 1013 58.55% Young Boys Diekirch 2 871 14.78% 26.67%
21 1979-03-04 34.9 @ Grevenmacher 2 961 52.13% Chiers Rodange 0 885 20.34% 27.53%
22 1978-09-17 35.1 @ Union Luxembourg 6 1026 41.65% Young Boys Diekirch 0 1036 30.26% 28.09%
23 1978-12-03 36.2 @ Differdange 03 7 1067 53.39% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 978 19.21% 27.40%
24 1978-10-29 36.6 @ Differdange 03 1 1079 55.09% Young Boys Diekirch 0 974 17.71% 27.20%
25 1978-09-03 36.8 @ Union Luxembourg 7 911 37.67% Grevenmacher 0 951 34.22% 28.11%