1998-99 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

51 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

F91 Dudelange

9.77 points above expected

47 points · 37.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Spora Luxembourg

8.88 points below expected

8 points · 16.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Jeunesse Esch	22	16	3	3	51	56	13	+43	48.76	+2.24
2	F91 Dudelange	22	14	5	3	47	40	18	+22	37.23	+9.77
3	Avenir Beggen	22	14	3	5	45	64	21	+43	38.62	+6.38
4	Union Luxembourg	22	12	7	3	43	46	18	+28	46.66	-3.66
5	Grevenmacher	22	13	2	7	41	50	26	+24	37.76	+3.24
6	Sporting Mertzig	22	10	5	7	35	51	34	+17	33.61	+1.39
7	Mondercange	22	6	6	10	24	26	42	-16	31.31	-7.31
8	Aris Bonnevoie	22	7	3	12	24	26	51	-25	22.83	+1.17
9	Hobscheid	22	7	2	13	23	43	50	-7	24.96	-1.96
10	Wiltz 71	22	6	2	14	20	25	53	-28	20.10	-0.10
11	CS Petange	22	4	2	16	14	16	71	-55	15.90	-1.90
12	Spora Luxembourg	22	2	2	18	8	17	63	-46	16.88	-8.88

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	F91 Dudelange	47	37.23	+9.77
2	Avenir Beggen	45	38.62	+6.38
3	Grevenmacher	41	37.76	+3.24
4	Jeunesse Esch	51	48.76	+2.24
5	Sporting Mertzig	35	33.61	+1.39

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Spora Luxembourg	8	16.88	-8.88
2	Mondercange	24	31.31	-7.31
3	Union Luxembourg	43	46.66	-3.66
4	Hobscheid	23	24.96	-1.96
5	CS Petange	14	15.90	-1.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Avenir Beggen	7	Sep 20 – Jan 31	1 in 148
2	F91 Dudelange	6	Jan 24 – Mar 10	1 in 100
3	CS Petange	2	Mar 6 – Mar 14	1 in 36
4	Wiltz 71	2	Jan 31 – Feb 20	1 in 34
5	Hobscheid	2	Apr 25 – May 9	1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	CS Petange	10	Sep 20 – Feb 27	1 in 90
2	Hobscheid	7	Oct 20 – Feb 27	1 in 75
3	Union Luxembourg	2	Apr 25 – May 9	1 in 47
4	Mondercange	4	Apr 25 – May 21	1 in 33
5	Spora Luxembourg	6	Sep 6 – Nov 15	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	F91 Dudelange	11	Sep 23 – Mar 14	1 in 133
2	Avenir Beggen	10	Sep 6 – Feb 6	1 in 62
3	Hobscheid	4	Apr 25 – May 21	1 in 24
4	Wiltz 71	3	Jan 31 – Feb 27	1 in 23
5	CS Petange	3	Aug 30 – Sep 13	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mondercange	10	Feb 20 – May 21	1 in 245
2	Sporting Mertzig	6	Feb 27 – Apr 19	1 in 53
3	Union Luxembourg	3	Jan 24 – Feb 6	1 in 16
4	Spora Luxembourg	11	Feb 6 – May 21	1 in 12
5	Hobscheid	7	Oct 20 – Feb 27	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch	1132	51	+36	13	10.6	+2.4
F91 Dudelange	971	47	+0	10	9.5	+0.5
Avenir Beggen	1028	45	-4	12	11.4	+0.6
Union Luxembourg	1018	43	-55	7	10.5	-3.5
Grevenmacher	1008	41	+64	12	8.7	+3.3
Sporting Mertzig	918	35	+66	10	7.4	+2.6
Aris Bonnevoie	687	24	-61	3	5.8	-2.8
Mondercange	792	24	-62	1	6.5	-5.5
Hobscheid	825	23	+45	10	5.4	+4.6
Wiltz 71	696	20	+41	6	3.7	+2.3
CS Petange	609	14	-18	3	3.0	-0.0
Spora Luxembourg	581	8	-54	0	2.9	-2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AB	AB	CP	FD	GRE	HOB	JE	MON	SL	SM	UL	W7
Aris Bonnevoie	—	0-0-2 1.23	1-0-1 3.79	0-0-2 1.50	1-0-1 1.49	2-0-0 2.51	0-0-2 0.88	0-2-0 1.87	1-0-1 3.64	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 0.94	2-0-0 3.28
Avenir Beggen	2-0-0 4.46	—	2-0-0 4.84	0-0-2 3.15	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 4.05	1-0-1 1.88	2-0-0 4.10	2-0-0 4.39	1-1-0 3.44	0-1-1 2.23	2-0-0 4.68
CS Petange	1-0-1 1.88	0-0-2 0.87	—	0-1-1 1.16	0-0-2 0.83	0-0-2 2.02	0-0-2 0.61	0-0-2 1.30	2-0-0 2.62	1-0-1 1.53	0-1-1 0.77	0-0-2 2.73
F91 Dudelange	2-0-0 4.17	2-0-0 2.52	1-1-0 4.53	—	2-0-0 2.74	1-1-0 3.97	1-0-1 1.78	0-1-1 3.48	2-0-0 4.71	1-1-0 3.30	0-1-1 1.86	2-0-0 4.16
Grevenmacher	1-0-1 4.19	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 4.88	0-0-2 2.92	—	2-0-0 3.77	1-0-1 1.59	1-1-0 3.18	2-0-0 4.61	1-0-1 3.41	0-1-1 2.08	2-0-0 4.56
Hobscheid	0-0-2 3.16	0-1-1 1.63	2-0-0 3.65	0-1-1 1.70	0-0-2 1.90	—	0-0-2 0.86	1-0-1 2.30	1-0-1 4.13	0-0-2 2.05	1-0-1 1.08	2-0-0 2.81
Jeunesse Esch	2-0-0 4.82	1-0-1 3.79	2-0-0 5.12	1-0-1 3.89	1-0-1 4.09	2-0-0 4.84	—	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 4.89	1-1-0 4.24	0-2-0 3.19	2-0-0 5.04
Mondercange	0-2-0 3.80	0-0-2 1.57	2-0-0 4.38	1-1-0 2.18	0-1-1 2.48	1-0-1 3.37	0-0-2 1.28	—	1-1-0 4.38	0-1-1 2.80	0-0-2 1.60	1-0-1 4.14
Spora Luxembourg	1-0-1 2.03	0-0-2 1.30	0-0-2 3.05	0-0-2 0.99	0-0-2 1.08	1-0-1 1.54	0-0-2 0.82	0-1-1 1.30	—	0-0-2 1.13	0-0-2 0.64	0-1-1 2.62
Sporting Mertzig	2-0-0 4.03	0-1-1 2.22	1-0-1 4.15	0-1-1 2.36	1-0-1 2.25	2-0-0 3.62	0-1-1 1.44	1-1-0 2.87	2-0-0 4.56	—	1-0-1 1.47	0-1-1 3.98
Union Luxembourg	1-1-0 4.76	1-1-0 3.44	1-1-0 4.94	1-1-0 3.81	1-1-0 3.59	1-0-1 4.61	0-2-0 2.47	2-0-0 4.07	2-0-0 5.08	1-0-1 4.20	—	1-0-1 4.92
Wiltz 71	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 1.02	2-0-0 2.93	0-0-2 1.52	0-0-2 1.13	0-0-2 2.86	0-0-2 0.68	1-0-1 1.53	1-1-0 3.04	1-1-0 1.69	1-0-1 0.79	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.75	+7.7
Allowed	0.95	-7.1
Differential	0.93	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.79%	7.58%	4.17%	4.55%	1.52%	6.44%	28.03%
1	7.58%	7.58%	5.68%	2.65%	3.03%	2.27%	28.79%
2	4.17%	5.68%	3.03%	2.65%	0.38%	0.38%	16.29%
3	4.55%	2.65%	2.65%	1.52%	—	0.76%	12.12%
4	1.52%	3.03%	0.38%	—	—	—	4.92%
5+	6.44%	2.27%	0.38%	0.76%	—	—	9.85%
Total	28.03%	28.79%	16.29%	12.12%	4.92%	9.85%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.74	1.74	+0.00
SD	1.79	1.79	2.93
CV	1.03	1.03	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%	36.36%
1	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	40.91%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	4.55%	13.64%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	2.32	-1.14
SD	1.47	2.01	3.00
CV	1.24	0.87	—
Max	6	7	+6
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
Total	45.45%	31.82%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.91	0.95	+1.95
SD	2.78	1.25	3.27
CV	0.95	1.31	—
Max	10	5	+10
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	13.64%	13.64%	22.73%	63.64%
1	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	27.27%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.73	3.23	-2.50
SD	1.20	2.76	3.49
CV	1.65	0.85	—
Max	4	10	+3
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
2	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	45.45%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	0.82	+1.00
SD	1.68	0.96	1.63
CV	0.92	1.17	—
Max	7	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
2	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	27.27%	45.45%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.27	1.18	+1.09
SD	1.96	1.18	2.52
CV	0.86	1.00	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	—	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	27.27%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.27	-0.32
SD	1.70	1.83	2.73
CV	0.87	0.81	—
Max	6	7	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	22.73%	—	—	—	—	—	22.73%
Total	45.45%	50.00%	4.55%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.55	0.59	+1.95
SD	1.99	0.59	2.36
CV	0.78	1.00	—
Max	7	2	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	54.55%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	22.73%	22.73%	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.91	-0.73
SD	0.85	1.66	1.72
CV	0.72	0.87	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	—	18.18%	50.00%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.55%	13.64%	22.73%	31.82%	4.55%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.77	2.86	-2.09
SD	1.02	1.49	2.07
CV	1.32	0.52	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	1.55	+0.77
SD	1.70	1.34	2.51
CV	0.73	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	18.18%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	54.55%	22.73%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	0.82	+1.27
SD	1.87	1.14	2.35
CV	0.90	1.39	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	13.64%	36.36%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	27.27%	18.18%	22.73%	—	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	2.41	-1.27
SD	1.13	2.02	2.71
CV	0.99	0.84	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Jeunesse Esch	1132	51	48.76	+2.24	67.0%	37	39	45	49	53	56	61
Avenir Beggen	1028	45	38.62	+6.38	88.0%	25	29	35	38	42	49	53
Union Luxembourg	1018	43	46.66	-3.66	30.0%	33	38	43	46	50	58	61
Grevenmacher	1008	41	37.76	+3.24	73.0%	22	27	34	38	42	47	49
F91 Dudelange	971	47	37.23	+9.77	96.0%	18	27	33	38	40	47	55
Sporting Mertzig	918	35	33.61	+1.39	56.0%	18	23	30	34	37	43	47
Hobscheid	825	23	24.96	-1.96	37.0%	10	15	22	25	29	35	40
Mondercange	792	24	31.31	-7.31	12.0%	20	22	26	32	35	40	47
Wiltz 71	696	20	20.10	-0.10	53.0%	8	12	17	20	23	27	31
Aris Bonnevoie	687	24	22.83	+1.17	59.0%	9	13	19	22	27	32	41
CS Petange	609	14	15.90	-1.90	40.0%	4	7	13	16	19	25	30
Spora Luxembourg	581	8	16.88	-8.88	4.0%	5	9	14	16	20	24	28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-2.27%

No Edge

40.91%15.91%43.18%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -7.90 Elo pts.

126 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.05 goals

Neutral

-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.3

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

56%

Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.18/gm

Comfortable

00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.47 * Some Luck: 4.47 to 6.7 * Lucky: 6.7 to 8.93 * Wild Swing: 8.93 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.96 * Close: 0.96 to 1.45 * Off: 1.45 to 1.93 * Way Off: 1.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.07 points

Some Luck

05.5814

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.212.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.00%

F91 Dudelange

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

4.00%

Spora Luxembourg

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Lopsided

00.170.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 182.97

2.18

Wide Separation

11.651.852.052.5

Interquartile Edge

86%

Wide Edge

50%68%78%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

48%

Few

0%39%100%

Blowouts

Expected

37%

Very Frequent

0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.522

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.350.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.89

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.79

Near-Lock

00.430.621

Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Chalky

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Solid Favorites

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.53

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.11

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.108

Well Within Noise

00.1410.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Jeunesse Esch	56.00%	28.00%	10.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
F91 Dudelange	4.00%	9.00%	9.00%	28.00%	21.00%	19.00%	5.00%	4.00%	—	—	1.00%	—
Avenir Beggen	6.00%	10.00%	23.00%	21.00%	18.00%	13.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Union Luxembourg	33.00%	36.00%	23.00%	4.00%	3.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Grevenmacher	1.00%	13.00%	21.00%	18.00%	24.00%	13.00%	7.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Sporting Mertzig	—	3.00%	10.00%	15.00%	14.00%	23.00%	16.00%	9.00%	8.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Mondercange	—	1.00%	3.00%	8.00%	13.00%	21.00%	25.00%	14.00%	9.00%	6.00%	—	—
Aris Bonnevoie	—	—	1.00%	—	3.00%	3.00%	12.00%	20.00%	17.00%	24.00%	12.00%	8.00%
Hobscheid	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	6.00%	21.00%	26.00%	23.00%	13.00%	3.00%	5.00%
Wiltz 71	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	13.00%	25.00%	27.00%	18.00%	12.00%
CS Petange	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	—	8.00%	6.00%	13.00%	28.00%	44.00%
Spora Luxembourg	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	3.00%	10.00%	16.00%	38.00%	30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Avenir Beggen	100%	—
Grevenmacher	100%	—
Jeunesse Esch	100%	—
Mondercange	100%	—
Union Luxembourg	100%	—
F91 Dudelange	99.00%	1.00%
Sporting Mertzig	99.00%	1.00%
Hobscheid	92.00%	8.00%
Aris Bonnevoie	80.00%	20.00%
Wiltz 71	70.00%	30.00%
Spora Luxembourg	32.00%	68.00%
CS Petange	28.00%	72.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1998-08-23	Wiltz 71	W 3-0	34.6	858	766	54.09%	16.71%	29.20%	+0.67	+23.2	3
1998-08-23	@ F91 Dudelange	L 0-3	34.6	766	858	29.20%	16.71%	54.09%	-0.67	-23.2	0
1998-08-23	Aris Bonnevoie	L 2-3	57.5	937	744	65.09%	16.16%	18.76%	+1.47	-15.5	0
1998-08-23	@ Grevenmacher	W 3-2	57.5	744	937	18.76%	16.16%	65.09%	-1.47	+15.5	3
1998-08-23	CS Petange	W 1-0	35.2	908	731	63.49%	16.27%	20.24%	+1.34	+6.1	3
1998-08-23	@ Mondercange	L 0-1	35.2	731	908	20.24%	16.27%	63.49%	-1.34	-6.1	0
1998-08-23	Avenir Beggen	W 1-0	36.8	1003	877	58.10%	16.56%	25.34%	+0.94	+7.5	3
1998-08-23	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-1	36.8	877	1003	25.34%	16.56%	58.10%	-0.94	-7.5	0
1998-08-23	Jeunesse Esch	L 0-5	26.8	744	1061	10.30%	15.03%	74.67%	-2.57	-14.1	0
1998-08-23	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 5-0	26.8	1061	744	74.67%	15.03%	10.30%	+2.57	+14.1	3
1998-08-23	Hobscheid	W 5-1	40.5	829	807	44.65%	16.87%	38.48%	+0.11	+32.1	3
1998-08-23	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 1-5	40.5	807	829	38.48%	16.87%	44.65%	-0.11	-32.1	0
1998-08-30	Hobscheid	W 2-1	46.6	759	775	39.29%	16.87%	43.84%	-0.19	+11.3	6
1998-08-30	@ Aris Bonnevoie	L 1-2	46.6	775	759	43.84%	16.87%	39.29%	+0.19	-11.3	0
1998-08-30	F91 Dudelange	L 0-1	41.2	869	882	39.79%	16.87%	43.33%	-0.16	-11.1	0
1998-08-30	@ Avenir Beggen	W 1-0	41.2	882	869	43.33%	16.87%	39.79%	+0.16	+11.1	6
1998-08-30	Mondercange	W 4-1	42.7	921	914	42.66%	16.87%	40.46%	+0.00	+25.9	3
1998-08-30	@ Grevenmacher	L 1-4	42.7	914	921	40.46%	16.87%	42.66%	+0.00	-25.9	3
1998-08-30	Sporting Mertzig	W 4-1	35.4	1075	861	67.03%	15.99%	16.98%	+1.64	+12.0	6
1998-08-30	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 1-4	35.4	861	1075	16.98%	15.99%	67.03%	-1.64	-12.0	3
1998-08-30	Union Luxembourg	D 2-2	59.4	725	1010	12.06%	15.36%	72.58%	-2.32	+3.0	1
1998-08-30	@ CS Petange	D 2-2	59.4	1010	725	72.58%	15.36%	12.06%	+2.32	-3.0	4
1998-08-30	Spora Luxembourg	D 2-2	59.0	742	730	43.30%	16.87%	39.83%	+0.03	-0.2	1
1998-08-30	@ Wiltz 71	D 2-2	59.0	730	742	39.83%	16.87%	43.30%	-0.03	+0.1	1
1998-09-06	CS Petange	D 0-0	51.0	893	728	62.29%	16.35%	21.37%	+1.24	-2.9	7
1998-09-06	@ F91 Dudelange	D 0-0	51.0	728	893	21.37%	16.35%	62.29%	-1.24	+2.9	2
1998-09-06	Jeunesse Esch	L 1-2	35.9	764	1087	9.97%	14.96%	75.07%	-2.63	-2.9	0
1998-09-06	@ Hobscheid	W 2-1	35.9	1087	764	75.07%	14.96%	9.97%	+2.63	+2.9	9
1998-09-06	Aris Bonnevoie	D 1-1	54.4	888	771	57.06%	16.61%	26.33%	+0.87	-1.9	4
1998-09-06	@ Mondercange	D 1-1	54.4	771	888	26.33%	16.61%	57.06%	-0.87	+1.9	7
1998-09-06	Grevenmacher	W 1-0	39.2	1007	947	49.89%	16.80%	33.31%	+0.41	+9.5	7
1998-09-06	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-1	39.2	947	1007	33.31%	16.80%	49.89%	-0.41	-9.5	3
1998-09-06	Avenir Beggen	L 0-5	31.7	731	858	25.17%	16.56%	58.27%	-1.07	-32.8	1
1998-09-06	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 5-0	31.7	858	731	58.27%	16.56%	25.17%	+1.07	+32.8	3
1998-09-06	Wiltz 71	L 1-2	50.2	849	742	55.84%	16.65%	27.51%	+0.78	-14.1	3
1998-09-06	@ Sporting Mertzig	W 2-1	50.2	742	849	27.51%	16.65%	55.84%	-0.78	+14.0	4
1998-09-13	Jeunesse Esch	L 0-5	26.8	773	1090	10.26%	15.02%	74.72%	-2.58	-14.0	7
1998-09-13	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 5-0	26.8	1090	773	74.72%	15.02%	10.26%	+2.58	+14.0	12
1998-09-13	Sporting Mertzig	D 1-1	54.3	891	835	49.34%	16.81%	33.85%	+0.38	-0.9	4
1998-09-13	@ Avenir Beggen	D 1-1	54.3	835	891	33.85%	16.81%	49.34%	-0.38	+0.9	4
1998-09-13	F91 Dudelange	L 0-1	43.7	938	890	48.30%	16.83%	34.87%	+0.32	-13.0	3
1998-09-13	@ Grevenmacher	W 1-0	43.7	890	938	34.87%	16.83%	48.30%	-0.32	+13.1	10
1998-09-13	Union Luxembourg	L 0-3	33.2	886	1017	24.81%	16.54%	58.65%	-1.10	-20.1	4
1998-09-13	@ Mondercange	W 3-0	33.2	1017	886	58.65%	16.54%	24.81%	+1.10	+20.1	10
1998-09-13	Spora Luxembourg	W 3-0	36.9	731	698	46.27%	16.85%	36.87%	+0.20	+28.4	5
1998-09-13	@ CS Petange	L 0-3	36.9	698	731	36.87%	16.85%	46.27%	-0.20	-28.4	1
1998-09-13	Hobscheid	L 1-6	39.9	756	761	40.89%	16.88%	42.24%	-0.10	-41.3	4
1998-09-13	@ Wiltz 71	W 6-1	39.9	761	756	42.24%	16.88%	40.89%	+0.10	+41.3	3
1998-09-20	Mondercange	L 0-1	43.3	903	866	46.79%	16.85%	36.36%	+0.23	-12.7	10
1998-09-20	@ F91 Dudelange	W 1-0	43.3	866	903	36.36%	16.85%	46.79%	-0.23	+12.7	7
1998-09-20	Avenir Beggen	L 0-1	38.2	802	890	29.81%	16.72%	53.47%	-0.76	-8.6	3
1998-09-20	@ Hobscheid	W 1-0	38.2	890	802	53.47%	16.72%	29.81%	+0.76	+8.6	7
1998-09-20	Wiltz 71	W 7-0	25.6	1104	715	78.66%	14.19%	7.15%	+3.02	+13.4	15
1998-09-20	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 0-7	25.6	715	1104	7.15%	14.19%	78.66%	-3.02	-13.4	4
1998-09-20	Aris Bonnevoie	W 7-0	27.6	1037	759	72.11%	15.42%	12.47%	+2.14	+23.3	13
1998-09-20	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-7	27.6	759	1037	12.47%	15.42%	72.11%	-2.14	-23.4	7
1998-09-20	Grevenmacher	L 0-2	31.2	669	925	13.93%	15.64%	70.42%	-2.09	-8.1	1
1998-09-20	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 2-0	31.2	925	669	70.42%	15.64%	13.93%	+2.09	+8.1	6
1998-09-20	CS Petange	W 4-0	34.1	836	759	52.08%	16.76%	31.16%	+0.55	+32.1	7
1998-09-20	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 0-4	34.1	759	836	31.16%	16.76%	52.08%	-0.55	-32.2	5
1998-09-23	Jeunesse Esch	W 1-0	49.2	899	1118	16.59%	15.96%	67.45%	-1.80	+17.9	10
1998-09-23	@ Avenir Beggen	L 0-1	49.2	1118	899	67.45%	15.96%	16.59%	+1.80	-17.9	15
1998-09-23	Sporting Mertzig	L 0-2	42.6	933	868	50.51%	16.79%	32.70%	+0.45	-25.6	6
1998-09-23	@ Grevenmacher	W 2-0	42.6	868	933	32.70%	16.79%	50.51%	-0.45	+25.6	10
1998-09-23	Spora Luxembourg	W 3-2	42.9	878	661	67.29%	15.97%	16.73%	+1.66	+4.6	10
1998-09-23	@ Mondercange	L 2-3	42.9	661	878	16.73%	15.97%	67.29%	-1.66	-4.6	1
1998-09-23	F91 Dudelange	D 1-1	54.5	1060	890	62.86%	16.31%	20.83%	+1.29	-2.7	14
1998-09-23	@ Union Luxembourg	D 1-1	54.5	890	1060	20.83%	16.31%	62.86%	-1.29	+2.7	11
1998-09-23	Hobscheid	L 0-4	34.5	727	794	32.46%	16.79%	50.76%	-0.59	-33.3	5
1998-09-23	@ CS Petange	W 4-0	34.5	794	727	50.76%	16.79%	32.46%	+0.59	+33.3	6
1998-10-04	Aris Bonnevoie	L 2-3	49.2	702	735	36.83%	16.85%	46.31%	-0.33	-9.3	4
1998-10-04	@ Wiltz 71	W 3-2	49.2	735	702	46.31%	16.85%	36.83%	+0.33	+9.3	10
1998-10-20	F91 Dudelange	L 0-1	36.0	745	893	22.99%	16.45%	60.57%	-1.24	-6.9	10
1998-10-20	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 1-0	36.0	893	745	60.57%	16.45%	22.99%	+1.24	+6.9	14
1998-10-20	Grevenmacher	L 2-3	47.3	827	907	30.72%	16.75%	52.53%	-0.70	-7.9	6
1998-10-20	@ Hobscheid	W 3-2	47.3	907	827	52.53%	16.75%	30.72%	+0.70	+7.9	9
1998-10-20	CS Petange	W 3-0	27.0	1100	694	79.44%	13.98%	6.57%	+3.15	+5.5	18
1998-10-20	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 0-3	27.0	694	1100	6.57%	13.98%	79.44%	-3.15	-5.5	5
1998-10-20	Union Luxembourg	L 0-5	25.4	657	1057	6.74%	14.04%	79.22%	-3.24	-9.2	1
1998-10-20	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 5-0	25.4	1057	657	79.22%	14.04%	6.74%	+3.24	+9.2	17
1998-10-20	Mondercange	W 3-1	44.1	894	883	43.12%	16.87%	40.01%	+0.02	+18.2	13
1998-10-20	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 1-3	44.1	883	894	40.01%	16.87%	43.12%	-0.02	-18.1	10
1998-10-23	Avenir Beggen	L 0-1	33.8	692	916	16.20%	15.91%	67.89%	-1.84	-5.0	4
1998-10-23	@ Wiltz 71	W 1-0	33.8	916	692	67.89%	15.91%	16.20%	+1.84	+5.0	13
1998-11-15	Aris Bonnevoie	W 2-1	39.2	921	738	64.21%	16.22%	19.56%	+1.39	+5.6	16
1998-11-15	@ Avenir Beggen	L 1-2	39.2	738	921	19.56%	16.22%	64.21%	-1.39	-5.6	10
1998-11-15	Spora Luxembourg	W 3-0	29.7	900	647	70.17%	15.67%	14.16%	+1.94	+11.9	17
1998-11-15	@ F91 Dudelange	L 0-3	29.7	647	900	14.16%	15.67%	70.17%	-1.94	-11.9	1
1998-11-15	Jeunesse Esch	W 2-0	46.7	915	1105	19.00%	16.18%	64.83%	-1.57	+32.4	12
1998-11-15	@ Grevenmacher	L 0-2	46.7	1105	915	64.83%	16.18%	19.00%	+1.57	-32.4	18
1998-11-15	Hobscheid	W 2-0	38.0	865	819	47.98%	16.83%	35.19%	+0.30	+18.8	13
1998-11-15	@ Mondercange	L 0-2	38.0	819	865	35.19%	16.83%	47.98%	-0.30	-18.8	6
1998-11-15	Sporting Mertzig	W 2-0	34.0	1067	912	61.25%	16.41%	22.34%	+1.16	+12.6	20
1998-11-15	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-2	34.0	912	1067	22.34%	16.41%	61.25%	-1.16	-12.6	13
1998-11-15	Wiltz 71	L 1-2	46.0	688	687	41.71%	16.88%	41.41%	-0.05	-10.9	5
1998-11-15	@ CS Petange	W 2-1	46.0	687	688	41.41%	16.88%	41.71%	+0.05	+10.9	7
1998-11-22	Spora Luxembourg	L 0-1	45.6	732	636	54.59%	16.69%	28.72%	+0.70	-14.6	10
1998-11-22	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 1-0	45.6	636	732	28.72%	16.69%	54.59%	-0.70	+14.6	4
1998-11-22	CS Petange	W 10-0	28.7	927	678	69.96%	15.70%	14.35%	+1.92	+37.6	19
1998-11-22	@ Avenir Beggen	L 0-10	28.7	678	927	14.35%	15.70%	69.96%	-1.92	-37.6	5
1998-11-22	Union Luxembourg	L 0-4	28.1	800	1079	12.43%	15.42%	72.16%	-2.27	-13.7	6
1998-11-22	@ Hobscheid	W 4-0	28.1	1079	800	72.16%	15.42%	12.43%	+2.27	+13.7	23
1998-11-22	Mondercange	W 2-0	33.0	1073	884	64.74%	16.18%	19.08%	+1.44	+10.9	21
1998-11-22	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 0-2	33.0	884	1073	19.08%	16.18%	64.74%	-1.44	-10.9	13
1998-11-22	F91 Dudelange	D 2-2	59.0	899	912	39.83%	16.87%	43.30%	-0.16	+0.2	14
1998-11-22	@ Sporting Mertzig	D 2-2	59.0	912	899	43.30%	16.87%	39.83%	+0.16	-0.1	18
1998-11-22	Grevenmacher	L 0-3	29.8	698	948	14.36%	15.70%	69.95%	-2.04	-12.1	7
1998-11-22	@ Wiltz 71	W 3-0	29.8	948	698	69.95%	15.70%	14.36%	+2.04	+12.1	15
1999-01-24	Hobscheid	W 7-3	40.3	911	787	57.96%	16.57%	25.47%	+0.93	+17.4	21
1999-01-24	@ F91 Dudelange	L 3-7	40.3	787	911	25.47%	16.57%	57.96%	-0.93	-17.4	6
1999-01-24	Avenir Beggen	L 0-5	36.5	960	965	40.85%	16.88%	42.28%	-0.10	-49.9	15
1999-01-24	@ Grevenmacher	W 5-0	36.5	965	960	42.28%	16.88%	40.85%	+0.10	+49.9	22
1999-01-24	Jeunesse Esch	D 1-1	54.3	1093	1084	42.88%	16.87%	40.24%	+0.01	-0.2	24
1999-01-24	@ Union Luxembourg	D 1-1	54.3	1084	1093	40.24%	16.87%	42.88%	-0.01	+0.2	22
1999-01-24	Sporting Mertzig	L 1-3	36.1	650	900	14.35%	15.70%	69.96%	-2.04	-7.2	4
1999-01-24	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 3-1	36.1	900	650	69.96%	15.70%	14.35%	+2.04	+7.2	17
1999-01-24	Aris Bonnevoie	L 0-6	33.4	640	718	31.05%	16.76%	52.19%	-0.68	-46.9	5
1999-01-24	@ CS Petange	W 6-0	33.4	718	640	52.19%	16.76%	31.05%	+0.68	+46.9	13
1999-01-24	Mondercange	L 1-2	39.1	686	873	19.32%	16.20%	64.48%	-1.54	-5.5	7
1999-01-24	@ Wiltz 71	W 2-1	39.1	873	686	64.48%	16.20%	19.32%	+1.54	+5.5	16
1999-01-31	Sporting Mertzig	L 0-3	32.8	764	907	23.59%	16.48%	59.93%	-1.19	-19.2	13
1999-01-31	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 3-0	32.8	907	764	59.93%	16.48%	23.59%	+1.19	+19.2	20
1999-01-31	Mondercange	W 5-1	36.1	1015	878	59.26%	16.51%	24.23%	+1.02	+21.5	25
1999-01-31	@ Avenir Beggen	L 1-5	36.1	878	1015	24.23%	16.51%	59.26%	-1.02	-21.4	16
1999-01-31	Spora Luxembourg	L 1-4	47.9	769	643	58.13%	16.56%	25.31%	+0.94	-35.7	6
1999-01-31	@ Hobscheid	W 4-1	47.9	643	769	25.31%	16.56%	58.13%	-0.94	+35.7	7
1999-01-31	F91 Dudelange	L 0-1	47.5	1084	929	61.31%	16.41%	22.28%	+1.17	-16.3	22
1999-01-31	@ Jeunesse Esch	W 1-0	47.5	929	1084	22.28%	16.41%	61.31%	-1.17	+16.3	24
1999-01-31	Grevenmacher	L 0-5	26.8	593	910	10.31%	15.03%	74.66%	-2.57	-14.1	5
1999-01-31	@ CS Petange	W 5-0	26.8	910	593	74.66%	15.03%	10.31%	+2.57	+14.1	18
1999-01-31	Union Luxembourg	W 4-2	59.4	681	1093	6.36%	13.90%	79.74%	-3.33	+30.7	10
1999-01-31	@ Wiltz 71	L 2-4	59.4	1093	681	79.74%	13.90%	6.36%	+3.33	-30.7	24
1999-02-06	Grevenmacher	L 1-4	36.4	745	924	20.03%	16.26%	63.71%	-1.48	-14.0	13
1999-02-06	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 4-1	36.4	924	745	63.71%	16.26%	20.03%	+1.48	+14.0	21
1999-02-06	Union Luxembourg	D 0-0	50.9	1036	1062	37.86%	16.86%	45.28%	-0.27	+0.5	26
1999-02-06	@ Avenir Beggen	D 0-0	50.9	1062	1036	45.28%	16.86%	37.86%	+0.27	-0.5	25
1999-02-06	Sporting Mertzig	L 3-5	44.3	733	926	18.79%	16.16%	65.05%	-1.59	-7.9	6
1999-02-06	@ Hobscheid	W 5-3	44.3	926	733	65.05%	16.16%	18.79%	+1.59	+7.9	23
1999-02-06	Spora Luxembourg	W 4-1	31.9	1068	679	78.65%	14.19%	7.16%	+3.02	+5.1	25
1999-02-06	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 1-4	31.9	679	1068	7.16%	14.19%	78.65%	-3.02	-5.1	7
1999-02-06	Mondercange	L 0-1	32.6	579	857	12.49%	15.43%	72.08%	-2.27	-3.9	5
1999-02-06	@ CS Petange	W 1-0	32.6	857	579	72.08%	15.43%	12.49%	+2.27	+3.8	19
1999-02-20	Avenir Beggen	W 1-0	45.4	945	1036	29.34%	16.71%	53.95%	-0.79	+14.4	27
1999-02-20	@ F91 Dudelange	L 0-1	45.4	1036	945	53.95%	16.71%	29.34%	+0.79	-14.4	26
1999-02-20	Grevenmacher	D 1-1	54.3	861	938	31.10%	16.76%	52.14%	-0.67	+1.3	20
1999-02-20	@ Mondercange	D 1-1	54.3	938	861	52.14%	16.76%	31.10%	+0.67	-1.3	22
1999-02-20	CS Petange	W 4-0	24.9	1062	575	82.74%	12.92%	4.33%	+3.80	+4.7	28
1999-02-20	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-4	24.9	575	1062	4.33%	12.92%	82.74%	-3.80	-4.7	5
1999-02-20	Wiltz 71	L 0-2	38.3	674	711	36.26%	16.85%	46.89%	-0.36	-19.3	7
1999-02-20	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 2-0	38.3	711	674	46.89%	16.85%	36.26%	+0.36	+19.3	13
1999-02-27	Mondercange	D 1-1	54.4	731	862	24.82%	16.54%	58.64%	-1.10	+2.1	14
1999-02-27	@ Aris Bonnevoie	D 1-1	54.4	862	731	58.64%	16.54%	24.82%	+1.10	-2.1	21
1999-02-27	Spora Luxembourg	W 3-2	39.8	1022	654	77.58%	14.45%	7.97%	+2.85	+2.2	29
1999-02-27	@ Avenir Beggen	L 2-3	39.8	654	1022	7.97%	14.45%	77.58%	-2.85	-2.2	7
1999-02-27	Union Luxembourg	D 0-0	51.0	937	1066	24.92%	16.54%	58.53%	-1.09	+2.4	23
1999-02-27	@ Grevenmacher	D 0-0	51.0	1066	937	58.53%	16.54%	24.92%	+1.09	-2.4	29
1999-02-27	Hobscheid	W 2-1	35.5	1073	726	76.46%	14.69%	8.85%	+2.69	+2.6	28
1999-02-27	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 1-2	35.5	726	1073	8.85%	14.69%	76.46%	-2.69	-2.6	6
1999-02-27	F91 Dudelange	L 0-3	27.2	570	959	7.16%	14.19%	78.65%	-3.15	-6.1	5
1999-02-27	@ CS Petange	W 3-0	27.2	959	570	78.65%	14.19%	7.16%	+3.15	+6.0	30
1999-02-27	Sporting Mertzig	D 1-1	54.5	731	934	17.88%	16.08%	66.04%	-1.67	+3.1	14
1999-02-27	@ Wiltz 71	D 1-1	54.5	934	731	66.04%	16.08%	17.88%	+1.67	-3.1	24
1999-03-06	Grevenmacher	W 2-1	44.8	966	939	45.34%	16.86%	37.79%	+0.15	+10.0	33
1999-03-06	@ F91 Dudelange	L 1-2	44.8	939	966	37.79%	16.86%	45.34%	-0.15	-10.0	23
1999-03-06	Wiltz 71	W 6-0	37.1	723	734	40.03%	16.87%	43.10%	-0.15	+62.0	9
1999-03-06	@ Hobscheid	L 0-6	37.1	734	723	43.10%	16.87%	40.03%	+0.15	-62.0	14
1999-03-06	Aris Bonnevoie	W 5-0	26.4	1075	733	76.17%	14.75%	9.08%	+2.65	+12.4	31
1999-03-06	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 0-5	26.4	733	1075	9.08%	14.75%	76.17%	-2.65	-12.4	14
1999-03-06	Mondercange	W 3-2	43.3	1064	860	66.13%	16.07%	17.80%	+1.56	+4.8	32
1999-03-06	@ Union Luxembourg	L 2-3	43.3	860	1064	17.80%	16.07%	66.13%	-1.56	-4.9	21
1999-03-06	CS Petange	L 0-1	45.3	652	564	53.48%	16.72%	29.79%	+0.63	-14.3	7
1999-03-06	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 1-0	45.3	564	652	29.79%	16.72%	53.48%	-0.63	+14.3	8
1999-03-06	Avenir Beggen	L 1-4	39.2	931	1024	29.08%	16.70%	54.21%	-0.80	-19.5	24
1999-03-06	@ Sporting Mertzig	W 4-1	39.2	1024	931	54.21%	16.70%	29.08%	+0.80	+19.5	32
1999-03-10	Jeunesse Esch	D 0-0	51.0	911	1088	20.23%	16.27%	63.50%	-1.46	+3.1	25
1999-03-10	@ Sporting Mertzig	D 0-0	51.0	1088	911	63.50%	16.27%	20.23%	+1.46	-3.1	32
1999-03-10	F91 Dudelange	L 1-3	34.9	672	976	11.00%	15.17%	73.84%	-2.47	-5.6	14
1999-03-10	@ Wiltz 71	W 3-1	34.9	976	672	73.84%	15.17%	11.00%	+2.47	+5.5	36
1999-03-14	Union Luxembourg	D 1-1	54.9	721	1069	8.82%	14.68%	76.50%	-2.82	+4.5	15
1999-03-14	@ Aris Bonnevoie	D 1-1	54.9	1069	721	76.50%	14.68%	8.82%	+2.82	-4.5	33
1999-03-14	Hobscheid	D 3-3	63.6	1044	785	70.68%	15.61%	13.71%	+1.99	-2.3	33
1999-03-14	@ Avenir Beggen	D 3-3	63.6	785	1044	13.71%	15.61%	70.68%	-1.99	+2.3	10
1999-03-14	Spora Luxembourg	W 2-0	30.5	929	638	73.00%	15.30%	11.70%	+2.25	+6.8	26
1999-03-14	@ Grevenmacher	L 0-2	30.5	638	929	11.70%	15.30%	73.00%	-2.25	-6.8	7
1999-03-14	F91 Dudelange	D 0-0	51.0	855	981	25.33%	16.56%	58.10%	-1.06	+2.3	22
1999-03-14	@ Mondercange	D 0-0	51.0	981	855	58.10%	16.56%	25.33%	+1.06	-2.3	37
1999-03-14	Sporting Mertzig	W 3-0	48.0	579	914	9.38%	14.82%	75.80%	-2.72	+54.9	11
1999-03-14	@ CS Petange	L 0-3	48.0	914	579	75.80%	14.82%	9.38%	+2.72	-54.9	25
1999-03-14	Jeunesse Esch	L 1-2	34.4	666	1085	6.16%	13.82%	80.02%	-3.38	-1.8	14
1999-03-14	@ Wiltz 71	W 2-1	34.4	1085	666	80.02%	13.82%	6.16%	+3.38	+1.8	35
1999-03-20	Aris Bonnevoie	L 0-1	44.3	787	725	50.15%	16.80%	33.05%	+0.43	-13.5	10
1999-03-20	@ Hobscheid	W 1-0	44.3	725	787	33.05%	16.80%	50.15%	-0.43	+13.5	18
1999-04-11	Wiltz 71	W 1-0	38.7	739	664	51.80%	16.77%	31.43%	+0.53	+9.1	21
1999-04-11	@ Aris Bonnevoie	L 0-1	38.7	664	739	31.43%	16.77%	51.80%	-0.53	-9.1	14
1999-04-11	Union Luxembourg	L 0-1	38.2	979	1064	30.05%	16.73%	53.22%	-0.74	-8.7	37
1999-04-11	@ F91 Dudelange	W 1-0	38.2	1064	979	53.22%	16.73%	30.05%	+0.74	+8.7	36
1999-04-11	CS Petange	W 2-1	40.5	774	634	59.70%	16.49%	23.81%	+1.05	+6.7	13
1999-04-11	@ Hobscheid	L 1-2	40.5	634	774	23.81%	16.49%	59.70%	-1.05	-6.7	11
1999-04-11	Avenir Beggen	W 2-1	44.1	1086	1041	47.87%	16.84%	35.29%	+0.29	+9.4	38
1999-04-11	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 1-2	44.1	1041	1086	35.29%	16.84%	47.87%	-0.29	-9.4	33
1999-04-11	Mondercange	D 1-1	54.6	631	857	16.02%	15.90%	68.08%	-1.86	+3.4	8
1999-04-11	@ Spora Luxembourg	D 1-1	54.6	857	631	68.08%	15.90%	16.02%	+1.86	-3.4	23
1999-04-11	Grevenmacher	L 2-3	47.5	859	936	31.20%	16.76%	52.04%	-0.67	-8.0	25
1999-04-11	@ Sporting Mertzig	W 3-2	47.5	936	859	52.04%	16.76%	31.20%	+0.67	+8.0	29
1999-04-19	Wiltz 71	W 5-0	25.8	1032	655	78.03%	14.34%	7.62%	+2.92	+10.4	36
1999-04-19	@ Avenir Beggen	L 0-5	25.8	655	1032	7.62%	14.34%	78.03%	-2.92	-10.4	14
1999-04-19	Aris Bonnevoie	W 4-1	35.2	970	748	67.71%	15.93%	16.36%	+1.70	+11.6	40
1999-04-19	@ F91 Dudelange	L 1-4	35.2	748	970	16.36%	15.93%	67.71%	-1.70	-11.5	21
1999-04-19	Hobscheid	W 3-1	38.4	944	780	62.16%	16.36%	21.49%	+1.23	+10.5	32
1999-04-19	@ Grevenmacher	L 1-3	38.4	780	944	21.49%	16.36%	62.16%	-1.23	-10.5	13
1999-04-19	Sporting Mertzig	D 3-3	63.2	854	851	41.93%	16.88%	41.19%	-0.04	-0.0	24
1999-04-19	@ Mondercange	D 3-3	63.2	851	854	41.19%	16.88%	41.93%	+0.04	+0.0	26
1999-04-19	Spora Luxembourg	W 5-1	29.7	1073	634	80.89%	13.56%	5.55%	+3.42	+5.1	39
1999-04-19	@ Union Luxembourg	L 1-5	29.7	634	1073	5.55%	13.56%	80.89%	-3.42	-5.1	8
1999-04-19	Jeunesse Esch	L 0-5	24.6	627	1096	4.75%	13.16%	82.09%	-3.78	-6.4	11
1999-04-19	@ CS Petange	W 5-0	24.6	1096	627	82.09%	13.16%	4.75%	+3.78	+6.4	41
1999-04-25	Avenir Beggen	L 0-2	30.2	736	1042	10.87%	15.14%	73.98%	-2.49	-6.4	21
1999-04-25	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 2-0	30.2	1042	736	73.98%	15.14%	10.87%	+2.49	+6.3	39
1999-04-25	Mondercange	W 2-1	49.3	770	854	30.25%	16.74%	53.01%	-0.73	+13.4	16
1999-04-25	@ Hobscheid	L 1-2	49.3	854	770	53.01%	16.74%	30.25%	+0.73	-13.4	24
1999-04-25	Grevenmacher	W 1-0	36.1	1102	954	60.54%	16.45%	23.02%	+1.11	+6.9	44
1999-04-25	@ Jeunesse Esch	L 0-1	36.1	954	1102	23.02%	16.45%	60.54%	-1.11	-6.9	32
1999-04-25	F91 Dudelange	L 1-3	34.0	629	982	8.62%	14.63%	76.75%	-2.86	-4.4	8
1999-04-25	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 3-1	34.0	982	629	76.75%	14.63%	8.62%	+2.86	+4.4	43
1999-04-25	Union Luxembourg	W 3-1	52.3	851	1078	16.00%	15.89%	68.11%	-1.86	+29.5	29
1999-04-25	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 1-3	52.3	1078	851	68.11%	15.89%	16.00%	+1.86	-29.5	39
1999-04-25	CS Petange	W 3-0	37.3	645	621	45.04%	16.86%	38.09%	+0.13	+29.2	17
1999-04-25	@ Wiltz 71	L 0-3	37.3	621	645	38.09%	16.86%	45.04%	-0.13	-29.2	11
1999-05-09	Sporting Mertzig	W 2-1	41.7	986	881	55.63%	16.66%	27.71%	+0.77	+7.6	46
1999-05-09	@ F91 Dudelange	L 1-2	41.7	881	986	27.71%	16.66%	55.63%	-0.77	-7.6	29
1999-05-09	Wiltz 71	W 3-1	35.5	947	674	71.75%	15.47%	12.78%	+2.10	+6.4	35
1999-05-09	@ Grevenmacher	L 1-3	35.5	674	947	12.78%	15.47%	71.75%	-2.10	-6.4	17
1999-05-09	Jeunesse Esch	L 1-2	37.0	840	1109	13.07%	15.52%	71.41%	-2.19	-3.8	24
1999-05-09	@ Mondercange	W 2-1	37.0	1109	840	71.41%	15.52%	13.07%	+2.19	+3.8	47
1999-05-09	Hobscheid	L 0-2	48.4	1049	783	71.16%	15.55%	13.29%	+2.04	-35.5	39
1999-05-09	@ Union Luxembourg	W 2-0	48.4	783	1049	13.29%	15.55%	71.16%	-2.04	+35.6	19
1999-05-09	Aris Bonnevoie	L 0-3	34.1	625	730	27.69%	16.66%	55.65%	-0.90	-22.2	8
1999-05-09	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 3-0	34.1	730	625	55.65%	16.66%	27.69%	+0.90	+22.2	24
1999-05-09	Avenir Beggen	L 0-8	24.9	591	1049	5.04%	13.31%	81.65%	-3.69	-10.6	11
1999-05-09	@ CS Petange	W 8-0	24.9	1049	591	81.65%	13.31%	5.04%	+3.69	+10.6	42
1999-05-16	CS Petange	L 1-4	49.3	752	581	63.01%	16.30%	20.69%	+1.30	-38.6	24
1999-05-16	@ Aris Bonnevoie	W 4-1	49.3	581	752	20.69%	16.30%	63.01%	-1.30	+38.6	14
1999-05-16	Grevenmacher	L 1-5	45.6	1059	954	55.68%	16.66%	27.66%	+0.77	-44.3	42
1999-05-16	@ Avenir Beggen	W 5-1	45.6	954	1059	27.66%	16.66%	55.68%	-0.77	+44.3	38
1999-05-16	F91 Dudelange	D 2-2	59.2	819	994	20.40%	16.28%	63.32%	-1.45	+2.1	20
1999-05-16	@ Hobscheid	D 2-2	59.2	994	819	63.32%	16.28%	20.40%	+1.45	-2.1	47
1999-05-16	Union Luxembourg	D 1-1	54.4	1113	1013	54.99%	16.68%	28.33%	+0.73	-1.7	48
1999-05-16	@ Jeunesse Esch	D 1-1	54.4	1013	1113	28.33%	16.68%	54.99%	-0.73	+1.7	40
1999-05-16	Wiltz 71	L 0-2	46.1	837	668	62.74%	16.32%	20.94%	+1.28	-31.4	24
1999-05-16	@ Mondercange	W 2-0	46.1	668	837	20.94%	16.32%	62.74%	-1.28	+31.4	20
1999-05-16	Spora Luxembourg	W 5-0	27.7	873	603	71.55%	15.50%	12.95%	+2.08	+17.6	32
1999-05-16	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 0-5	27.7	603	873	12.95%	15.50%	71.55%	-2.08	-17.6	8
1999-05-21	Jeunesse Esch	L 0-3	33.6	992	1111	26.04%	16.59%	57.36%	-1.01	-21.0	47
1999-05-21	@ F91 Dudelange	W 3-0	33.6	1111	992	57.36%	16.59%	26.04%	+1.01	+21.0	51
1999-05-21	CS Petange	W 7-1	28.2	998	619	78.15%	14.31%	7.54%	+2.94	+10.1	41
1999-05-21	@ Grevenmacher	L 1-7	28.2	619	998	7.54%	14.31%	78.15%	-2.94	-10.1	14
1999-05-21	Avenir Beggen	L 2-6	36.5	805	1015	17.33%	16.03%	66.64%	-1.73	-13.4	24
1999-05-21	@ Mondercange	W 6-2	36.5	1015	805	66.64%	16.03%	17.33%	+1.73	+13.4	45
1999-05-21	Wiltz 71	W 1-0	31.8	1015	699	74.59%	15.04%	10.37%	+2.44	+3.2	43
1999-05-21	@ Union Luxembourg	L 0-1	31.8	699	1015	10.37%	15.04%	74.59%	-2.44	-3.2	20
1999-05-21	Hobscheid	L 1-2	37.8	585	821	15.31%	15.82%	68.87%	-1.93	-4.4	8
1999-05-21	@ Spora Luxembourg	W 2-1	37.8	821	585	68.87%	15.82%	15.31%	+1.93	+4.4	23
1999-05-21	Aris Bonnevoie	W 5-0	30.1	891	714	63.56%	16.27%	20.17%	+1.34	+26.8	35
1999-05-21	@ Sporting Mertzig	L 0-5	30.1	714	891	20.17%	16.27%	63.56%	-1.34	-26.8	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1999-01-31	6.36%	@ Wiltz 71	681	4	Union Luxembourg	1093	2
2	1999-03-14	9.38%	@ CS Petange	579	3	Sporting Mertzig	914	0
3	1999-05-09	13.29%	Hobscheid	783	2	@ Union Luxembourg	1049	0
4	1999-04-25	16.00%	@ Sporting Mertzig	851	3	Union Luxembourg	1078	1
5	1998-09-23	16.59%	@ Avenir Beggen	899	1	Jeunesse Esch	1118	0
6	1998-08-23	18.76%	Aris Bonnevoie	744	3	@ Grevenmacher	937	2
7	1998-11-15	19.00%	@ Grevenmacher	915	2	Jeunesse Esch	1105	0
8	1999-05-16	20.69%	CS Petange	581	4	@ Aris Bonnevoie	752	1
9	1999-05-16	20.94%	Wiltz 71	668	2	@ Mondercange	837	0
10	1999-01-31	22.28%	F91 Dudelange	929	1	@ Jeunesse Esch	1084	0
11	1999-01-31	25.31%	Spora Luxembourg	643	4	@ Hobscheid	769	1
12	1998-09-06	27.51%	Wiltz 71	742	2	@ Sporting Mertzig	849	1
13	1999-05-16	27.66%	Grevenmacher	954	5	@ Avenir Beggen	1059	1
14	1998-11-22	28.72%	Spora Luxembourg	636	1	@ Aris Bonnevoie	732	0
15	1999-02-20	29.34%	@ F91 Dudelange	945	1	Avenir Beggen	1036	0
16	1999-03-06	29.79%	CS Petange	564	1	@ Spora Luxembourg	652	0
17	1999-04-25	30.25%	@ Hobscheid	770	2	Mondercange	854	1
18	1998-09-23	32.70%	Sporting Mertzig	868	2	@ Grevenmacher	933	0
19	1999-03-20	33.05%	Aris Bonnevoie	725	1	@ Hobscheid	787	0
20	1998-09-13	34.87%	F91 Dudelange	890	1	@ Grevenmacher	938	0
21	1998-09-20	36.36%	Mondercange	866	1	@ F91 Dudelange	903	0
22	1998-08-30	39.29%	@ Aris Bonnevoie	759	2	Hobscheid	775	1
23	1999-03-06	40.03%	@ Hobscheid	723	6	Wiltz 71	734	0
24	1998-11-15	41.41%	Wiltz 71	687	2	@ CS Petange	688	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1999-03-06	61.96	@ Hobscheid	6	723	40.03%	Wiltz 71	0	734	43.10%	16.87%
2	1999-03-14	54.91	@ CS Petange	3	579	9.38%	Sporting Mertzig	0	914	75.80%	14.82%
3	1999-01-24	49.87	Avenir Beggen	5	965	42.28%	@ Grevenmacher	0	960	40.85%	16.88%
4	1999-01-24	46.92	Aris Bonnevoie	6	718	52.19%	@ CS Petange	0	640	31.05%	16.76%
5	1999-05-16	44.29	Grevenmacher	5	954	27.66%	@ Avenir Beggen	1	1059	55.68%	16.66%
6	1998-09-13	41.34	Hobscheid	6	761	42.24%	@ Wiltz 71	1	756	40.89%	16.88%
7	1999-05-16	38.62	CS Petange	4	581	20.69%	@ Aris Bonnevoie	1	752	63.01%	16.30%
8	1998-11-22	37.62	@ Avenir Beggen	10	927	69.96%	CS Petange	0	678	14.35%	15.70%
9	1999-01-31	35.74	Spora Luxembourg	4	643	25.31%	@ Hobscheid	1	769	58.13%	16.56%
10	1999-05-09	35.56	Hobscheid	2	783	13.29%	@ Union Luxembourg	0	1049	71.16%	15.55%
11	1998-09-23	33.30	Hobscheid	4	794	50.76%	@ CS Petange	0	727	32.46%	16.79%
12	1998-09-06	32.82	Avenir Beggen	5	858	58.27%	@ Spora Luxembourg	0	731	25.17%	16.56%
13	1998-11-15	32.43	@ Grevenmacher	2	915	19.00%	Jeunesse Esch	0	1105	64.83%	16.18%
14	1998-09-20	32.15	@ Sporting Mertzig	4	836	52.08%	CS Petange	0	759	31.16%	16.76%
15	1998-08-23	32.08	@ Sporting Mertzig	5	829	44.65%	Hobscheid	1	807	38.48%	16.87%
16	1999-05-16	31.40	Wiltz 71	2	668	20.94%	@ Mondercange	0	837	62.74%	16.32%
17	1999-01-31	30.66	@ Wiltz 71	4	681	6.36%	Union Luxembourg	2	1093	79.74%	13.90%
18	1999-04-25	29.49	@ Sporting Mertzig	3	851	16.00%	Union Luxembourg	1	1078	68.11%	15.89%
19	1999-04-25	29.22	@ Wiltz 71	3	645	45.04%	CS Petange	0	621	38.09%	16.86%
20	1998-09-13	28.43	@ CS Petange	3	731	46.27%	Spora Luxembourg	0	698	36.87%	16.85%
21	1999-05-21	26.83	@ Sporting Mertzig	5	891	63.56%	Aris Bonnevoie	0	714	20.17%	16.27%
22	1998-08-30	25.92	@ Grevenmacher	4	921	42.66%	Mondercange	1	914	40.46%	16.87%
23	1998-09-23	25.62	Sporting Mertzig	2	868	32.70%	@ Grevenmacher	0	933	50.51%	16.79%
24	1998-09-20	23.35	@ Union Luxembourg	7	1037	72.11%	Aris Bonnevoie	0	759	12.47%	15.42%
25	1998-08-23	23.25	@ F91 Dudelange	3	858	54.09%	Wiltz 71	0	766	29.20%	16.71%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1999-03-14	63.6	@ Avenir Beggen	3	1044	70.68%	Hobscheid	3	785	13.71%	15.61%
2	1999-04-19	63.2	@ Mondercange	3	854	41.93%	Sporting Mertzig	3	851	41.19%	16.88%
3	1998-08-30	59.4	@ CS Petange	2	725	12.06%	Union Luxembourg	2	1010	72.58%	15.36%
4	1999-01-31	59.4	@ Wiltz 71	4	681	6.36%	Union Luxembourg	2	1093	79.74%	13.90%
5	1999-05-16	59.2	@ Hobscheid	2	819	20.40%	F91 Dudelange	2	994	63.32%	16.28%
6	1998-08-30	59.0	@ Wiltz 71	2	742	43.30%	Spora Luxembourg	2	730	39.83%	16.87%
7	1998-11-22	59.0	@ Sporting Mertzig	2	899	39.83%	F91 Dudelange	2	912	43.30%	16.87%
8	1998-08-23	57.5	Aris Bonnevoie	3	744	18.76%	@ Grevenmacher	2	937	65.09%	16.16%
9	1999-03-14	54.9	@ Aris Bonnevoie	1	721	8.82%	Union Luxembourg	1	1069	76.50%	14.68%
10	1999-04-11	54.6	@ Spora Luxembourg	1	631	16.02%	Mondercange	1	857	68.08%	15.90%
11	1998-09-23	54.5	@ Union Luxembourg	1	1060	62.86%	F91 Dudelange	1	890	20.83%	16.31%
12	1999-02-27	54.5	@ Wiltz 71	1	731	17.88%	Sporting Mertzig	1	934	66.04%	16.08%
13	1998-09-06	54.4	@ Mondercange	1	888	57.06%	Aris Bonnevoie	1	771	26.33%	16.61%
14	1999-02-27	54.4	@ Aris Bonnevoie	1	731	24.82%	Mondercange	1	862	58.64%	16.54%
15	1999-05-16	54.4	@ Jeunesse Esch	1	1113	54.99%	Union Luxembourg	1	1013	28.33%	16.68%
16	1998-09-13	54.3	@ Avenir Beggen	1	891	49.34%	Sporting Mertzig	1	835	33.85%	16.81%
17	1999-01-24	54.3	@ Union Luxembourg	1	1093	42.88%	Jeunesse Esch	1	1084	40.24%	16.87%
18	1999-02-20	54.3	@ Mondercange	1	861	31.10%	Grevenmacher	1	938	52.14%	16.76%
19	1999-04-25	52.3	@ Sporting Mertzig	3	851	16.00%	Union Luxembourg	1	1078	68.11%	15.89%
20	1998-09-06	51.0	@ F91 Dudelange	0	893	62.29%	CS Petange	0	728	21.37%	16.35%
21	1999-02-27	51.0	@ Grevenmacher	0	937	24.92%	Union Luxembourg	0	1066	58.53%	16.54%
22	1999-03-10	51.0	@ Sporting Mertzig	0	911	20.23%	Jeunesse Esch	0	1088	63.50%	16.27%
23	1999-03-14	51.0	@ Mondercange	0	855	25.33%	F91 Dudelange	0	981	58.10%	16.56%
24	1999-02-06	50.9	@ Avenir Beggen	0	1036	37.86%	Union Luxembourg	0	1062	45.28%	16.86%
25	1998-09-06	50.2	Wiltz 71	2	742	27.51%	@ Sporting Mertzig	1	849	55.84%	16.65%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1999-04-19	24.6	Jeunesse Esch	5	1096	82.09%	@ CS Petange	0	627	4.75%	13.16%
2	1999-02-20	24.9	@ Union Luxembourg	4	1062	82.74%	CS Petange	0	575	4.33%	12.92%
3	1999-05-09	24.9	Avenir Beggen	8	1049	81.65%	@ CS Petange	0	591	5.04%	13.31%
4	1998-10-20	25.4	Union Luxembourg	5	1057	79.22%	@ Spora Luxembourg	0	657	6.74%	14.04%
5	1998-09-20	25.6	@ Jeunesse Esch	7	1104	78.66%	Wiltz 71	0	715	7.15%	14.19%
6	1999-04-19	25.8	@ Avenir Beggen	5	1032	78.03%	Wiltz 71	0	655	7.62%	14.34%
7	1999-03-06	26.4	@ Jeunesse Esch	5	1075	76.17%	Aris Bonnevoie	0	733	9.08%	14.75%
8	1998-08-23	26.8	Jeunesse Esch	5	1061	74.67%	@ Spora Luxembourg	0	744	10.30%	15.03%
9	1998-09-13	26.8	Jeunesse Esch	5	1090	74.72%	@ Aris Bonnevoie	0	773	10.26%	15.02%
10	1999-01-31	26.8	Grevenmacher	5	910	74.66%	@ CS Petange	0	593	10.31%	15.03%
11	1998-10-20	27.0	@ Jeunesse Esch	3	1100	79.44%	CS Petange	0	694	6.57%	13.98%
12	1999-02-27	27.2	F91 Dudelange	3	959	78.65%	@ CS Petange	0	570	7.16%	14.19%
13	1998-09-20	27.6	@ Union Luxembourg	7	1037	72.11%	Aris Bonnevoie	0	759	12.47%	15.42%
14	1999-05-16	27.7	@ Sporting Mertzig	5	873	71.55%	Spora Luxembourg	0	603	12.95%	15.50%
15	1998-11-22	28.1	Union Luxembourg	4	1079	72.16%	@ Hobscheid	0	800	12.43%	15.42%
16	1999-05-21	28.2	@ Grevenmacher	7	998	78.15%	CS Petange	1	619	7.54%	14.31%
17	1998-11-22	28.7	@ Avenir Beggen	10	927	69.96%	CS Petange	0	678	14.35%	15.70%
18	1998-11-15	29.7	@ F91 Dudelange	3	900	70.17%	Spora Luxembourg	0	647	14.16%	15.67%
19	1999-04-19	29.7	@ Union Luxembourg	5	1073	80.89%	Spora Luxembourg	1	634	5.55%	13.56%
20	1998-11-22	29.8	Grevenmacher	3	948	69.95%	@ Wiltz 71	0	698	14.36%	15.70%
21	1999-05-21	30.1	@ Sporting Mertzig	5	891	63.56%	Aris Bonnevoie	0	714	20.17%	16.27%
22	1999-04-25	30.2	Avenir Beggen	2	1042	73.98%	@ Aris Bonnevoie	0	736	10.87%	15.14%
23	1999-03-14	30.5	@ Grevenmacher	2	929	73.00%	Spora Luxembourg	0	638	11.70%	15.30%
24	1998-09-20	31.2	Grevenmacher	2	925	70.42%	@ Spora Luxembourg	0	669	13.93%	15.64%
25	1998-09-06	31.7	Avenir Beggen	5	858	58.27%	@ Spora Luxembourg	0	731	25.17%	16.56%