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1979-80 Maltese First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valletta

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valletta

5.33 points above expected

31 points · 25.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Georges

4.37 points below expected

5 points · 9.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 18 14 3 1 31 59 8 +51 25.67 +5.33
2 Sliema Wanderers 18 13 2 3 28 47 11 +36 23.98 +4.02
3 Floriana 18 12 4 2 28 35 6 +29 25.15 +2.85
4 Hibernians 18 11 4 3 26 46 11 +35 25.38 +0.62
5 Hamrun Spartans 18 9 2 7 20 28 24 +4 18.97 +1.03
6 Birkirkara 18 6 2 10 14 23 38 -15 14.87 -0.87
7 Marsa 18 6 1 11 13 14 40 -26 15.85 -2.85
8 Zebbug Rangers 18 2 4 12 8 9 31 -22 11.09 -3.09
9 Qormi 18 3 1 14 7 13 65 -52 9.67 -2.67
10 St. Georges 18 1 3 14 5 9 49 -40 9.37 -4.37

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valletta 31 25.67 +5.33
2 Sliema Wanderers 28 23.98 +4.02
3 Floriana 28 25.15 +2.85
4 Hamrun Spartans 20 18.97 +1.03
5 Hibernians 26 25.38 +0.62

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Georges 5 9.37 -4.37
2 Zebbug Rangers 8 11.09 -3.09
3 Marsa 13 15.85 -2.85
4 Qormi 7 9.67 -2.67
5 Birkirkara 14 14.87 -0.87

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valletta 1480 31 +40 9 8.0 +1.0
Sliema Wanderers 1391 28 +43 8 7.1 +0.9
Floriana 1409 28 -35 5 6.7 -1.7
Hibernians 1426 26 +52 8 7.1 +0.9
Hamrun Spartans 1160 20 +77 8 6.3 +1.7
Birkirkara 923 14 -154 0 3.2 -3.2
Marsa 820 13 -151 2 3.7 -1.7
Zebbug Rangers 923 8 +0 3 2.1 +0.9
Qormi 943 7 +183 4 2.7 +1.3
St. Georges 798 5 -55 2 3.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB MAR QOR SW SG VAL ZR
Birkirkara —
0-0-2
1.11
2-0-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-2
0.84
1-1-0
3.94
0-0-2
0.72
1-0-1
3.58
Floriana
2-0-0
4.59
 —
1-1-0
4.12
1-1-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
4.50
1-0-1
3.68
2-0-0
5.31
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
4.76
Hamrun Spartans
0-0-2
3.30
0-1-1
1.58
 —
0-1-1
1.33
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.43
0-0-2
1.95
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-1
1.51
2-0-0
4.12
Hibernians
2-0-0
3.88
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
4.37
 —
1-0-1
4.97
2-0-0
5.05
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
4.75
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
4.72
Marsa
1-1-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
0.74
 —
1-0-1
4.31
0-0-2
2.00
2-0-0
4.25
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
3.76
Qormi
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
1.21
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
0.66
1-0-1
1.39
 —
0-0-2
0.86
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-2
0.44
1-1-0
2.38
Sliema Wanderers
2-0-0
4.86
1-0-1
2.01
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
2.72
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.84
 —
2-0-0
4.56
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
4.95
St. Georges
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-2
0.40
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
1.45
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
1.14
 —
0-0-2
0.50
0-2-0
2.49
Valletta
2-0-0
4.98
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
4.19
1-1-0
2.27
2-0-0
4.72
2-0-0
5.28
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
5.21
 —
2-0-0
4.85
Zebbug Rangers
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
0.94
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
1.93
0-1-1
3.32
0-0-2
0.76
0-2-0
3.21
0-0-2
0.85
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +5.2
Allowed 0.84 -4.5
Differential 0.95 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%11.11%3.89%5.56%3.33%6.11%37.78%
111.11%5.56%2.78%6.11%1.11%2.22%28.89%
23.89%2.78%1.11%——0.56%8.33%
35.56%6.11%————11.67%
43.33%1.11%————4.44%
5+6.11%2.22%0.56%———8.89%
Total37.78%28.89%8.33%11.67%4.44%8.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.57 +0.00
SD 2.02 2.02 3.32
CV 1.29 1.29 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
116.67%—5.56%22.22%——44.44%
2———————
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%16.67%11.11%27.78%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.11 -0.83
SD 1.81 1.97 2.96
CV 1.42 0.93 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
127.78%5.56%5.56%———38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total72.22%22.22%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.33 +1.61
SD 2.10 0.59 2.20
CV 1.08 1.78 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
116.67%——11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.33 +0.22
SD 1.34 1.71 2.56
CV 0.86 1.29 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
1—11.11%————11.11%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
316.67%11.11%————27.78%
4———————
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total44.44%50.00%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 0.61 +1.94
SD 2.43 0.61 2.78
CV 0.95 0.99 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%5.56%—5.56%22.22%61.11%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%—5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.22 -1.44
SD 1.11 2.60 3.29
CV 1.43 1.17 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—16.67%5.56%22.22%66.67%
15.56%———5.56%5.56%16.67%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%—16.67%11.11%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 3.61 -2.89
SD 1.36 3.18 3.80
CV 1.89 0.88 —
Max 5 11 +5
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
116.67%5.56%————22.22%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%16.67%————22.22%
4———————
5+22.22%—————22.22%
Total50.00%38.89%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.61 +2.00
SD 2.57 0.70 2.97
CV 0.98 1.14 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%—5.56%50.00%
15.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%—11.11%50.00%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%38.89%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.72 -2.22
SD 0.51 2.11 2.21
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 1 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%————22.22%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
416.67%5.56%————22.22%
5+11.11%11.11%————22.22%
Total61.11%33.33%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.28 0.44 +2.83
SD 2.78 0.62 2.96
CV 0.85 1.39 —
Max 11 2 +11
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%11.11%11.11%—61.11%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2———————
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%11.11%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 1.72 -1.22
SD 0.79 1.32 1.63
CV 1.57 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1480 31 25.67 +5.33 97.0% 16 20 24 26 27 31 34
Hibernians 1426 26 25.38 +0.62 59.0% 18 20 23 26 28 30 32
Floriana 1409 28 25.15 +2.85 85.0% 17 20 23 25 27 30 33
Sliema Wanderers 1391 28 23.98 +4.02 96.0% 14 19 22 24 26 28 31
Hamrun Spartans 1160 20 18.97 +1.03 64.0% 10 14 16 19 21 23 27
Qormi 943 7 9.67 -2.67 31.0% 4 5 7 9 12 15 19
Birkirkara 923 14 14.87 -0.87 50.0% 7 8 12 14 17 21 24
Zebbug Rangers 923 8 11.09 -3.09 22.0% 4 6 9 11 13 16 20
Marsa 820 13 15.85 -2.85 17.0% 8 11 14 16 17 21 24
St. Georges 798 5 9.37 -4.37 7.0% 3 4 7 9 11 14 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.11%
Slight Edge
43.33%14.44%42.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.37 goals
Road-Tilted
-2+0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Valletta, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.58 * Some Luck: 2.58 to 3.88 * Lucky: 3.88 to 5.17 * Wild Swing: 5.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.84 * Close: 0.84 to 1.27 * Off: 1.27 to 1.69 * Way Off: 1.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.14 points
Some Luck
03.238
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.052.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Valletta
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
St. Georges
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 275.66
2.50
Wide Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
94%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Few
0%35%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.02
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.23
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.44
Very Underconfident
0.4253121.001.57469
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valletta32.00%25.00%23.00%14.00%5.00%—1.00%———
Sliema Wanderers11.00%26.00%28.00%24.00%8.00%2.00%—1.00%——
Floriana25.00%23.00%20.00%26.00%6.00%—————
Hibernians32.00%23.00%21.00%20.00%2.00%2.00%————
Hamrun Spartans—1.00%7.00%8.00%53.00%16.00%11.00%2.00%2.00%—
Birkirkara—2.00%—6.00%9.00%30.00%23.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%
Marsa——1.00%1.00%15.00%36.00%29.00%16.00%2.00%—
Zebbug Rangers———1.00%1.00%8.00%16.00%29.00%23.00%22.00%
Qormi————1.00%3.00%9.00%20.00%23.00%44.00%
St. Georges—————3.00%11.00%13.00%43.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 99.00% 1.00%
Hamrun Spartans 96.00% 4.00%
Marsa 82.00% 18.00%
Birkirkara 70.00% 30.00%
Zebbug Rangers 26.00% 74.00%
St. Georges 14.00% 86.00%
Qormi 13.00% 87.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1979-09-11 Birkirkara L 0-147.8 1156 1033 59.21% 15.27% 25.52%+0.97 -33.5 0
1979-09-11 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-047.8 1033 1156 25.52% 15.27% 59.21%-0.97 +33.5 2
1979-09-11 St. Georges W 3-032.6 1223 1013 67.75% 15.18% 17.07%+1.63 +30.2 2
1979-09-11 @ Hibernians L 0-332.6 1013 1223 17.07% 15.18% 67.75%-1.63 -30.2 0
1979-09-11 Zebbug Rangers W 2-038.6 1146 1084 51.71% 15.31% 32.98%+0.50 +37.6 2
1979-09-11 @ Marsa L 0-238.6 1084 1146 32.98% 15.31% 51.71%-0.50 -37.6 0
1979-09-11 Floriana L 0-336.1 1051 1158 28.77% 15.29% 55.95%-0.78 -48.5 0
1979-09-11 @ Qormi W 3-036.1 1158 1051 55.95% 15.29% 28.77%+0.78 +48.5 2
1979-09-11 Sliema Wanderers D 0-052.2 1229 1180 49.90% 15.31% 34.79%+0.40 -2.2 1
1979-09-11 @ Valletta D 0-052.2 1180 1229 34.79% 15.31% 49.90%-0.40 +2.2 1
1979-09-25 Qormi W 4-141.4 1066 1003 51.93% 15.31% 32.76%+0.51 +45.8 4
1979-09-25 @ Birkirkara L 1-441.4 1003 1066 32.76% 15.31% 51.93%-0.51 -45.8 0
1979-09-25 Marsa W 2-040.4 1207 1184 46.42% 15.32% 38.26%+0.20 +42.8 4
1979-09-25 @ Floriana L 0-240.4 1184 1207 38.26% 15.32% 46.42%-0.20 -42.8 2
1979-09-25 Zebbug Rangers W 2-139.3 1254 1046 67.45% 15.18% 17.36%+1.60 +10.6 4
1979-09-25 @ Hibernians L 1-239.3 1046 1254 17.36% 15.18% 67.45%-1.60 -10.6 0
1979-09-25 Sliema Wanderers L 1-338.7 983 1182 19.00% 15.20% 65.79%-1.49 -19.9 0
1979-09-25 @ St. Georges W 3-138.7 1182 983 65.79% 15.20% 19.00%+1.49 +19.9 3
1979-09-25 Hamrun Spartans L 0-245.9 1226 1123 56.87% 15.29% 27.84%+0.81 -60.8 1
1979-09-25 @ Valletta W 2-045.9 1123 1226 27.84% 15.29% 56.87%-0.81 +60.8 2
1979-10-09 St. Georges W 3-137.8 1184 963 68.61% 15.17% 16.22%+1.71 +17.2 4
1979-10-09 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-337.8 963 1184 16.22% 15.17% 68.61%-1.71 -17.2 0
1979-10-09 Birkirkara W 3-034.4 1264 1112 62.27% 15.25% 22.48%+1.18 +38.9 6
1979-10-09 @ Hibernians L 0-334.4 1112 1264 22.48% 15.25% 62.27%-1.18 -38.9 4
1979-10-09 Qormi W 3-033.3 1141 957 65.42% 15.21% 19.37%+1.43 +34.0 4
1979-10-09 @ Marsa L 0-333.3 957 1141 19.37% 15.21% 65.42%-1.43 -34.0 0
1979-10-09 Valletta L 0-243.4 1202 1166 48.31% 15.32% 36.37%+0.31 -52.3 3
1979-10-09 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-043.4 1166 1202 36.37% 15.32% 48.31%-0.31 +52.3 3
1979-10-09 Floriana L 0-135.4 1036 1250 17.79% 15.19% 67.02%-1.59 -11.5 0
1979-10-09 @ Zebbug Rangers W 1-035.4 1250 1036 67.02% 15.19% 17.79%+1.59 +11.5 6
1979-10-16 Floriana L 1-339.1 1073 1261 20.12% 15.22% 64.66%-1.39 -21.0 4
1979-10-16 @ Birkirkara W 3-139.1 1261 1073 64.66% 15.22% 20.12%+1.39 +21.0 8
1979-10-16 St. Georges W 2-033.3 1175 945 69.28% 15.15% 15.56%+1.77 +19.1 6
1979-10-16 @ Marsa L 0-233.3 945 1175 15.56% 15.15% 69.28%-1.77 -19.1 0
1979-10-16 Sliema Wanderers L 0-530.7 923 1150 16.67% 15.17% 68.16%-1.69 -47.6 0
1979-10-16 @ Qormi W 5-030.7 1150 923 68.16% 15.17% 16.67%+1.69 +47.6 5
1979-10-16 Hibernians D 1-156.0 1218 1303 31.50% 15.30% 53.20%-0.62 +2.9 4
1979-10-16 @ Valletta D 1-156.0 1303 1218 53.20% 15.30% 31.50%+0.62 -2.9 7
1979-10-16 Hamrun Spartans L 0-333.8 1024 1201 21.20% 15.23% 63.58%-1.31 -36.9 0
1979-10-16 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-033.8 1201 1024 63.58% 15.23% 21.20%+1.31 +36.9 6
1979-10-23 Floriana L 0-438.0 1238 1282 36.93% 15.32% 47.75%-0.31 -78.7 6
1979-10-23 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-038.0 1282 1238 47.75% 15.32% 36.93%+0.31 +78.7 10
1979-10-23 Qormi W 3-029.0 1300 875 79.61% 14.77% 5.62%+3.25 +10.5 9
1979-10-23 @ Hibernians L 0-329.0 875 1300 5.62% 14.77% 79.61%-3.25 -10.5 0
1979-10-23 Marsa W 1-042.5 1198 1194 43.67% 15.32% 41.01%+0.06 +24.1 7
1979-10-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-142.5 1194 1198 41.01% 15.32% 43.67%-0.06 -24.1 6
1979-10-23 Birkirkara L 0-137.9 926 1052 26.56% 15.27% 58.16%-0.93 -16.5 0
1979-10-23 @ St. Georges W 1-037.9 1052 926 58.16% 15.27% 26.56%+0.93 +16.5 6
1979-10-23 Zebbug Rangers W 4-031.0 1221 988 69.56% 15.15% 15.29%+1.80 +35.7 6
1979-10-23 @ Valletta L 0-431.0 988 1221 15.29% 15.15% 69.56%-1.80 -35.7 0
1979-11-07 St. Georges D 0-052.0 1069 910 62.98% 15.24% 21.78%+1.23 -6.3 7
1979-11-07 @ Birkirkara D 0-052.0 910 1069 21.78% 15.24% 62.98%-1.23 +6.3 1
1979-11-07 Valletta L 0-145.9 1311 1256 50.68% 15.31% 34.01%+0.44 -29.0 9
1979-11-07 @ Hibernians W 1-045.9 1256 1311 34.01% 15.31% 50.68%-0.44 +29.0 8
1979-11-07 Floriana L 0-831.2 1170 1361 19.85% 15.21% 64.94%-1.42 -87.3 6
1979-11-07 @ Marsa W 8-031.2 1361 1170 64.94% 15.21% 19.85%+1.42 +87.3 12
1979-11-07 Zebbug Rangers W 1-046.0 865 952 31.25% 15.30% 53.45%-0.63 +30.4 2
1979-11-07 @ Qormi L 0-146.0 952 865 53.45% 15.30% 31.25%+0.63 -30.4 0
1979-11-07 Hamrun Spartans W 3-143.0 1222 1159 51.77% 15.31% 32.92%+0.50 +32.5 9
1979-11-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-343.0 1159 1222 32.92% 15.31% 51.77%-0.50 -32.5 6
1979-11-21 Birkirkara W 1-032.4 1448 1062 78.18% 14.86% 6.95%+2.95 +4.7 14
1979-11-21 @ Floriana L 0-132.4 1062 1448 6.95% 14.86% 78.18%-2.95 -4.7 7
1979-11-21 Hibernians L 1-340.2 1127 1282 23.36% 15.25% 61.39%-1.15 -24.0 6
1979-11-21 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-140.2 1282 1127 61.39% 15.25% 23.36%+1.15 +24.0 11
1979-11-21 St. Georges W 3-030.1 1254 916 76.09% 14.97% 8.94%+2.59 +16.4 11
1979-11-21 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-330.1 916 1254 8.94% 14.97% 76.09%-2.59 -16.4 1
1979-11-21 Marsa W 6-030.7 1285 1083 67.06% 15.19% 17.75%+1.56 +59.9 10
1979-11-21 @ Valletta L 0-630.7 1083 1285 17.75% 15.19% 67.06%-1.56 -60.0 6
1979-11-21 Qormi D 0-052.0 921 895 46.89% 15.32% 37.79%+0.23 -1.3 1
1979-11-21 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-052.0 895 921 37.79% 15.32% 46.89%-0.23 +1.3 3
1979-12-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-136.7 1103 1271 22.04% 15.24% 62.73%-1.24 -13.9 6
1979-12-05 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-036.7 1271 1103 62.73% 15.24% 22.04%+1.24 +13.9 13
1979-12-05 Hibernians W 1-051.7 1023 1306 12.63% 15.08% 72.29%-2.12 +41.1 8
1979-12-05 @ Marsa L 0-151.7 1306 1023 72.29% 15.08% 12.63%+2.12 -41.1 11
1979-12-05 Birkirkara L 2-639.2 896 1058 22.72% 15.24% 62.04%-1.19 -36.3 3
1979-12-05 @ Qormi W 6-239.2 1058 896 62.04% 15.24% 22.72%+1.19 +36.3 9
1979-12-05 Floriana W 1-050.4 1345 1453 28.75% 15.29% 55.96%-0.78 +31.8 12
1979-12-05 @ Valletta L 0-150.4 1453 1345 55.96% 15.29% 28.75%+0.78 -31.8 14
1979-12-05 St. Georges D 1-155.5 920 900 46.07% 15.32% 38.61%+0.18 -1.0 2
1979-12-05 @ Zebbug Rangers D 1-155.5 900 920 38.61% 15.32% 46.07%-0.18 +1.0 2
1979-12-19 Hamrun Spartans W 5-142.4 1094 1089 43.95% 15.32% 40.73%+0.07 +71.3 11
1979-12-19 @ Birkirkara L 1-542.4 1089 1094 40.73% 15.32% 43.95%-0.07 -71.3 6
1979-12-19 Floriana L 0-138.7 1265 1421 23.24% 15.25% 61.51%-1.16 -14.6 11
1979-12-19 @ Hibernians W 1-038.7 1421 1265 61.51% 15.25% 23.24%+1.16 +14.6 16
1979-12-19 Valletta L 0-1125.5 860 1377 3.63% 14.54% 81.83%-3.89 -23.2 3
1979-12-19 @ Qormi W 11-025.5 1377 860 81.83% 14.54% 3.63%+3.89 +23.2 14
1979-12-19 Marsa L 1-240.8 901 1064 22.52% 15.24% 62.23%-1.21 -13.4 2
1979-12-19 @ St. Georges W 2-140.8 1064 901 62.23% 15.24% 22.52%+1.21 +13.4 10
1979-12-19 Sliema Wanderers L 1-335.4 919 1285 8.23% 14.93% 76.84%-2.74 -9.1 2
1979-12-19 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-135.4 1285 919 76.84% 14.93% 8.23%+2.74 +9.0 15
1980-01-09 Marsa D 0-052.1 1165 1077 55.01% 15.29% 29.70%+0.70 -3.8 12
1980-01-09 @ Birkirkara D 0-052.1 1077 1165 29.70% 15.29% 55.01%-0.70 +3.8 11
1980-01-09 Hamrun Spartans D 0-052.5 1436 1017 79.39% 14.79% 5.83%+3.20 -12.0 17
1980-01-09 @ Floriana D 0-052.5 1017 1436 5.83% 14.79% 79.39%-3.20 +12.0 7
1980-01-09 Hibernians L 0-726.7 837 1250 6.39% 14.82% 78.80%-3.10 -26.2 3
1980-01-09 @ Qormi W 7-026.7 1250 837 78.80% 14.82% 6.39%+3.10 +26.2 13
1980-01-09 Zebbug Rangers W 1-032.0 1294 910 78.10% 14.87% 7.03%+2.94 +4.8 17
1980-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-132.0 910 1294 7.03% 14.87% 78.10%-2.94 -4.8 2
1980-01-09 St. Georges W 5-131.0 1400 887 82.00% 14.53% 3.47%+3.92 +7.1 16
1980-01-09 @ Valletta L 1-531.0 887 1400 3.47% 14.53% 82.00%-3.92 -7.1 2
1980-01-23 Hibernians L 0-534.3 1162 1276 27.89% 15.28% 56.83%-0.84 -75.9 12
1980-01-23 @ Birkirkara W 5-034.3 1276 1162 56.83% 15.28% 27.89%+0.84 +75.9 15
1980-01-23 Sliema Wanderers W 1-039.8 1424 1298 59.39% 15.27% 25.34%+0.98 +15.8 19
1980-01-23 @ Floriana L 0-139.8 1298 1424 25.34% 15.27% 59.39%-0.98 -15.8 17
1980-01-23 Qormi W 1-034.9 1029 811 68.40% 15.17% 16.43%+1.69 +10.7 9
1980-01-23 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-134.9 811 1029 16.43% 15.17% 68.40%-1.69 -10.7 3
1980-01-23 Valletta L 0-229.6 880 1407 3.43% 14.51% 82.06%-3.97 -4.4 2
1980-01-23 @ St. Georges W 2-029.6 1407 880 82.06% 14.51% 3.43%+3.97 +4.4 18
1980-01-23 Marsa W 1-049.0 905 1081 21.28% 15.23% 63.49%-1.30 +35.9 4
1980-01-23 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-149.0 1081 905 63.49% 15.23% 21.28%+1.30 -35.9 11
1980-01-30 Valletta L 0-429.8 1086 1412 10.12% 15.01% 74.87%-2.44 -24.2 12
1980-01-30 @ Birkirkara W 4-029.8 1412 1086 74.87% 15.01% 10.12%+2.44 +24.2 20
1980-01-30 Sliema Wanderers D 1-156.7 1352 1283 52.68% 15.30% 32.01%+0.56 -2.7 16
1980-01-30 @ Hibernians D 1-156.7 1283 1352 32.01% 15.30% 52.68%-0.56 +2.7 18
1980-01-30 Hamrun Spartans L 0-431.1 800 1040 15.67% 15.15% 69.18%-1.79 -36.5 3
1980-01-30 @ Qormi W 4-031.1 1040 800 69.18% 15.15% 15.67%+1.79 +36.5 11
1980-01-30 Zebbug Rangers D 1-155.5 876 941 34.05% 15.31% 50.65%-0.47 +2.2 3
1980-01-30 @ St. Georges D 1-155.5 941 876 50.65% 15.31% 34.05%+0.47 -2.2 5
1980-02-06 Zebbug Rangers W 1-037.7 1062 939 59.06% 15.27% 25.66%+0.96 +16.0 14
1980-02-06 @ Birkirkara L 0-137.7 939 1062 25.66% 15.27% 59.06%-0.96 -16.0 5
1980-02-06 Sliema Wanderers L 0-729.7 1045 1285 15.64% 15.15% 69.21%-1.79 -61.8 11
1980-02-06 @ Marsa W 7-029.7 1285 1045 69.21% 15.15% 15.64%+1.79 +61.8 20
1980-02-06 Hibernians L 0-925.9 878 1349 4.65% 14.67% 80.68%-3.54 -24.4 3
1980-02-06 @ St. Georges W 9-025.9 1349 878 80.68% 14.67% 4.65%+3.54 +24.4 18
1980-02-06 Qormi W 7-127.6 1436 764 84.57% 14.00% 1.43%+5.12 +4.2 22
1980-02-06 @ Valletta L 1-727.6 764 1436 1.43% 14.00% 84.57%-5.12 -4.2 3
1980-02-20 Sliema Wanderers L 0-729.2 1078 1347 13.52% 15.11% 71.38%-2.01 -53.9 14
1980-02-20 @ Birkirkara W 7-029.2 1347 1078 71.38% 15.11% 13.52%+2.01 +53.9 22
1980-02-20 Valletta L 0-428.0 983 1440 5.04% 14.71% 80.25%-3.43 -12.3 11
1980-02-20 @ Marsa W 4-028.0 1440 983 80.25% 14.71% 5.04%+3.43 +12.3 24
1980-02-20 Qormi L 1-349.7 853 759 55.75% 15.29% 28.96%+0.74 -51.7 3
1980-02-20 @ St. Georges W 3-149.7 759 853 28.96% 15.29% 55.75%-0.74 +51.7 5
1980-02-20 Hibernians L 1-334.5 923 1374 5.21% 14.72% 80.07%-3.39 -5.8 5
1980-02-20 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-134.5 1374 923 80.07% 14.72% 5.21%+3.39 +5.8 20
1980-03-06 St. Georges W 3-027.7 1439 802 84.14% 14.12% 1.74%+4.86 +3.2 21
1980-03-06 @ Floriana L 0-327.7 802 1439 1.74% 14.12% 84.14%-4.86 -3.3 3
1980-03-06 Hamrun Spartans D 2-260.2 1380 1076 74.24% 15.03% 10.73%+2.33 -6.8 21
1980-03-06 @ Hibernians D 2-260.2 1076 1380 10.73% 15.03% 74.24%-2.33 +6.8 12
1980-03-06 Birkirkara W 3-147.6 971 1024 35.79% 15.31% 48.89%-0.37 +45.8 13
1980-03-06 @ Marsa L 1-347.6 1024 971 48.89% 15.31% 35.79%+0.37 -45.8 14
1980-03-06 Qormi W 8-025.2 1401 811 83.44% 14.29% 2.27%+4.50 +10.7 24
1980-03-06 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-825.2 811 1401 2.27% 14.29% 83.44%-4.50 -10.7 5
1980-03-06 Valletta L 0-328.4 917 1452 3.28% 14.49% 82.23%-4.03 -6.1 5
1980-03-06 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-028.4 1452 917 82.23% 14.49% 3.28%+4.03 +6.1 26
1980-03-20 Qormi W 1-030.2 1443 800 84.20% 14.11% 1.70%+4.90 +1.2 23
1980-03-20 @ Floriana L 0-130.2 800 1443 1.70% 14.11% 84.20%-4.90 -1.1 5
1980-03-20 Hibernians L 0-246.6 1412 1373 48.59% 15.31% 36.10%+0.32 -52.5 24
1980-03-20 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-046.6 1373 1412 36.10% 15.31% 48.59%-0.32 +52.5 23
1980-03-20 Hamrun Spartans L 0-331.1 799 1083 12.52% 15.08% 72.40%-2.13 -22.6 3
1980-03-20 @ St. Georges W 3-031.1 1083 799 72.40% 15.08% 12.52%+2.13 +22.6 14
1980-03-20 Birkirkara W 3-134.3 1459 978 81.23% 14.62% 4.15%+3.67 +4.6 28
1980-03-20 @ Valletta L 1-334.3 978 1459 4.15% 14.62% 81.23%-3.67 -4.6 14
1980-03-27 Marsa W 1-038.9 1106 1017 55.12% 15.29% 29.59%+0.70 +18.1 16
1980-03-27 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-138.9 1017 1106 29.59% 15.29% 55.12%-0.70 -18.1 13
1980-03-27 St. Georges L 0-143.9 799 776 46.46% 15.32% 38.22%+0.21 -26.8 5
1980-03-27 @ Qormi W 1-043.9 776 799 38.22% 15.32% 46.46%-0.21 +26.8 5
1980-03-27 Floriana W 2-153.7 1359 1444 31.55% 15.30% 53.15%-0.61 +28.5 26
1980-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-253.7 1444 1359 53.15% 15.30% 31.55%+0.61 -28.5 23
1980-03-27 Birkirkara W 3-148.0 911 973 34.52% 15.31% 50.17%-0.44 +46.9 7
1980-03-27 @ Zebbug Rangers L 1-348.0 973 911 50.17% 15.31% 34.52%+0.44 -46.9 14
1980-04-03 Valletta D 1-161.2 1415 1463 36.43% 15.31% 48.25%-0.33 +1.5 24
1980-04-03 @ Floriana D 1-161.2 1463 1415 48.25% 15.31% 36.43%+0.33 -1.5 29
1980-04-03 Zebbug Rangers W 4-032.8 1124 958 63.67% 15.23% 21.10%+1.29 +48.0 18
1980-04-03 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-432.8 958 1124 21.10% 15.23% 63.67%-1.29 -48.0 7
1980-04-03 Marsa W 5-046.1 772 999 16.74% 15.17% 68.09%-1.69 +170.2 7
1980-04-03 @ Qormi L 0-546.1 999 772 68.09% 15.17% 16.74%+1.69 -170.2 13
1980-04-03 Birkirkara W 2-135.3 1388 926 80.71% 14.67% 4.62%+3.52 +3.0 28
1980-04-03 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-235.3 926 1388 4.62% 14.67% 80.71%-3.52 -3.0 14
1980-04-17 Zebbug Rangers D 0-052.3 1417 910 81.86% 14.55% 3.60%+3.87 -12.9 25
1980-04-17 @ Floriana D 0-052.3 910 1417 3.60% 14.55% 81.86%-3.87 +12.9 8
1980-04-17 Valletta L 1-436.4 1172 1462 12.21% 15.07% 72.72%-2.17 -18.7 18
1980-04-17 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-136.4 1462 1172 72.72% 15.07% 12.21%+2.17 +18.6 31
1980-04-17 Marsa W 2-134.4 1425 829 83.55% 14.26% 2.18%+4.55 +1.4 25
1980-04-17 @ Hibernians L 1-234.4 829 1425 2.18% 14.26% 83.55%-4.55 -1.4 13
1980-05-01 Hamrun Spartans L 0-132.9 827 1153 10.12% 15.01% 74.88%-2.44 -6.8 13
1980-05-01 @ Marsa W 1-032.9 1153 827 74.88% 15.01% 10.12%+2.44 +6.8 20
1980-05-01 Floriana L 1-530.5 803 1404 2.27% 14.27% 83.45%-4.53 -4.6 5
1980-05-01 @ St. Georges W 5-130.5 1404 803 83.45% 14.27% 2.27%+4.53 +4.6 27
1980-05-08 Hibernians D 0-056.5 1409 1427 40.56% 15.32% 44.12%-0.11 +0.5 28
1980-05-08 @ Floriana D 0-056.5 1427 1409 44.12% 15.32% 40.56%+0.11 -0.5 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1979-12-05 12.63% @ Marsa 1023 1 Hibernians 1306 0
2 1980-04-03 16.74% @ Qormi 772 5 Marsa 999 0
3 1980-01-23 21.28% @ Zebbug Rangers 905 1 Marsa 1081 0
4 1979-09-11 25.52% Birkirkara 1033 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1156 0
5 1979-09-25 27.84% Hamrun Spartans 1123 2 @ Valletta 1226 0
6 1979-12-05 28.75% @ Valletta 1345 1 Floriana 1453 0
7 1980-02-20 28.96% Qormi 759 3 @ St. Georges 853 1
8 1979-11-07 31.25% @ Qormi 865 1 Zebbug Rangers 952 0
9 1980-03-27 31.55% @ Sliema Wanderers 1359 2 Floriana 1444 1
10 1979-11-07 34.01% Valletta 1256 1 @ Hibernians 1311 0
11 1980-03-27 34.52% @ Zebbug Rangers 911 3 Birkirkara 973 1
12 1980-03-06 35.79% @ Marsa 971 3 Birkirkara 1024 1
13 1980-03-20 36.10% Hibernians 1373 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1412 0
14 1979-10-09 36.37% Valletta 1166 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1202 0
15 1980-03-27 38.22% St. Georges 776 1 @ Qormi 799 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-04-03 170.20 @ Qormi 5 772 16.74% Marsa 0 999 68.09% 15.17%
2 1979-11-07 87.33 Floriana 8 1361 64.94% @ Marsa 0 1170 19.85% 15.21%
3 1979-10-23 78.71 Floriana 4 1282 47.75% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1238 36.93% 15.32%
4 1980-01-23 75.94 Hibernians 5 1276 56.83% @ Birkirkara 0 1162 27.89% 15.28%
5 1979-12-19 71.33 @ Birkirkara 5 1094 43.95% Hamrun Spartans 1 1089 40.73% 15.32%
6 1980-02-06 61.75 Sliema Wanderers 7 1285 69.21% @ Marsa 0 1045 15.64% 15.15%
7 1979-09-25 60.81 Hamrun Spartans 2 1123 27.84% @ Valletta 0 1226 56.87% 15.29%
8 1979-11-21 59.95 @ Valletta 6 1285 67.06% Marsa 0 1083 17.75% 15.19%
9 1980-02-20 53.86 Sliema Wanderers 7 1347 71.38% @ Birkirkara 0 1078 13.52% 15.11%
10 1980-03-20 52.55 Hibernians 2 1373 36.10% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1412 48.59% 15.31%
11 1979-10-09 52.29 Valletta 2 1166 36.37% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1202 48.31% 15.32%
12 1980-02-20 51.66 Qormi 3 759 28.96% @ St. Georges 1 853 55.75% 15.29%
13 1979-09-11 48.47 Floriana 3 1158 55.95% @ Qormi 0 1051 28.77% 15.29%
14 1980-04-03 47.98 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1124 63.67% Zebbug Rangers 0 958 21.10% 15.23%
15 1979-10-16 47.64 Sliema Wanderers 5 1150 68.16% @ Qormi 0 923 16.67% 15.17%
16 1980-03-27 46.85 @ Zebbug Rangers 3 911 34.52% Birkirkara 1 973 50.17% 15.31%
17 1979-09-25 45.81 @ Birkirkara 4 1066 51.93% Qormi 1 1003 32.76% 15.31%
18 1980-03-06 45.77 @ Marsa 3 971 35.79% Birkirkara 1 1024 48.89% 15.31%
19 1979-09-25 42.76 @ Floriana 2 1207 46.42% Marsa 0 1184 38.26% 15.32%
20 1979-12-05 41.11 @ Marsa 1 1023 12.63% Hibernians 0 1306 72.29% 15.08%
21 1979-10-09 38.90 @ Hibernians 3 1264 62.27% Birkirkara 0 1112 22.48% 15.25%
22 1979-09-11 37.62 @ Marsa 2 1146 51.71% Zebbug Rangers 0 1084 32.98% 15.31%
23 1979-10-16 36.87 Hamrun Spartans 3 1201 63.58% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1024 21.20% 15.23%
24 1980-01-30 36.50 Hamrun Spartans 4 1040 69.18% @ Qormi 0 800 15.67% 15.15%
25 1979-12-05 36.27 Birkirkara 6 1058 62.04% @ Qormi 2 896 22.72% 15.24%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-04-03 61.2 @ Floriana 1 1415 36.43% Valletta 1 1463 48.25% 15.31%
2 1980-03-06 60.2 @ Hibernians 2 1380 74.24% Hamrun Spartans 2 1076 10.73% 15.03%
3 1980-01-30 56.7 @ Hibernians 1 1352 52.68% Sliema Wanderers 1 1283 32.01% 15.30%
4 1980-05-08 56.5 @ Floriana 0 1409 40.56% Hibernians 0 1427 44.12% 15.32%
5 1979-10-16 56.0 @ Valletta 1 1218 31.50% Hibernians 1 1303 53.20% 15.30%
6 1979-12-05 55.5 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 920 46.07% St. Georges 1 900 38.61% 15.32%
7 1980-01-30 55.5 @ St. Georges 1 876 34.05% Zebbug Rangers 1 941 50.65% 15.31%
8 1980-03-27 53.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1359 31.55% Floriana 1 1444 53.15% 15.30%
9 1980-01-09 52.5 @ Floriana 0 1436 79.39% Hamrun Spartans 0 1017 5.83% 14.79%
10 1980-04-17 52.3 @ Floriana 0 1417 81.86% Zebbug Rangers 0 910 3.60% 14.55%
11 1979-09-11 52.2 @ Valletta 0 1229 49.90% Sliema Wanderers 0 1180 34.79% 15.31%
12 1980-01-09 52.1 @ Birkirkara 0 1165 55.01% Marsa 0 1077 29.70% 15.29%
13 1979-11-07 52.0 @ Birkirkara 0 1069 62.98% St. Georges 0 910 21.78% 15.24%
14 1979-11-21 52.0 @ Zebbug Rangers 0 921 46.89% Qormi 0 895 37.79% 15.32%
15 1979-12-05 51.7 @ Marsa 1 1023 12.63% Hibernians 0 1306 72.29% 15.08%
16 1979-12-05 50.4 @ Valletta 1 1345 28.75% Floriana 0 1453 55.96% 15.29%
17 1980-02-20 49.7 Qormi 3 759 28.96% @ St. Georges 1 853 55.75% 15.29%
18 1980-01-23 49.0 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 905 21.28% Marsa 0 1081 63.49% 15.23%
19 1980-03-27 48.0 @ Zebbug Rangers 3 911 34.52% Birkirkara 1 973 50.17% 15.31%
20 1979-09-11 47.8 Birkirkara 1 1033 25.52% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1156 59.21% 15.27%
21 1980-03-06 47.6 @ Marsa 3 971 35.79% Birkirkara 1 1024 48.89% 15.31%
22 1980-03-20 46.6 Hibernians 2 1373 36.10% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1412 48.59% 15.31%
23 1980-04-03 46.1 @ Qormi 5 772 16.74% Marsa 0 999 68.09% 15.17%
24 1979-11-07 46.0 @ Qormi 1 865 31.25% Zebbug Rangers 0 952 53.45% 15.30%
25 1979-09-25 45.9 Hamrun Spartans 2 1123 27.84% @ Valletta 0 1226 56.87% 15.29%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-03-06 25.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 8 1401 83.44% Qormi 0 811 2.27% 14.29%
2 1979-12-19 25.5 Valletta 11 1377 81.83% @ Qormi 0 860 3.63% 14.54%
3 1980-02-06 25.9 Hibernians 9 1349 80.68% @ St. Georges 0 878 4.65% 14.67%
4 1980-01-09 26.7 Hibernians 7 1250 78.80% @ Qormi 0 837 6.39% 14.82%
5 1980-02-06 27.6 @ Valletta 7 1436 84.57% Qormi 1 764 1.43% 14.00%
6 1980-03-06 27.7 @ Floriana 3 1439 84.14% St. Georges 0 802 1.74% 14.12%
7 1980-02-20 28.0 Valletta 4 1440 80.25% @ Marsa 0 983 5.04% 14.71%
8 1980-03-06 28.4 Valletta 3 1452 82.23% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 917 3.28% 14.49%
9 1979-10-23 29.0 @ Hibernians 3 1300 79.61% Qormi 0 875 5.62% 14.77%
10 1980-02-20 29.2 Sliema Wanderers 7 1347 71.38% @ Birkirkara 0 1078 13.52% 15.11%
11 1980-01-23 29.6 Valletta 2 1407 82.06% @ St. Georges 0 880 3.43% 14.51%
12 1980-02-06 29.7 Sliema Wanderers 7 1285 69.21% @ Marsa 0 1045 15.64% 15.15%
13 1980-01-30 29.8 Valletta 4 1412 74.87% @ Birkirkara 0 1086 10.12% 15.01%
14 1979-11-21 30.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1254 76.09% St. Georges 0 916 8.94% 14.97%
15 1980-03-20 30.2 @ Floriana 1 1443 84.20% Qormi 0 800 1.70% 14.11%
16 1980-05-01 30.5 Floriana 5 1404 83.45% @ St. Georges 1 803 2.27% 14.27%
17 1979-10-16 30.7 Sliema Wanderers 5 1150 68.16% @ Qormi 0 923 16.67% 15.17%
18 1979-11-21 30.7 @ Valletta 6 1285 67.06% Marsa 0 1083 17.75% 15.19%
19 1979-10-23 31.0 @ Valletta 4 1221 69.56% Zebbug Rangers 0 988 15.29% 15.15%
20 1980-01-09 31.0 @ Valletta 5 1400 82.00% St. Georges 1 887 3.47% 14.53%
21 1980-01-30 31.1 Hamrun Spartans 4 1040 69.18% @ Qormi 0 800 15.67% 15.15%
22 1980-03-20 31.1 Hamrun Spartans 3 1083 72.40% @ St. Georges 0 799 12.52% 15.08%
23 1979-11-07 31.2 Floriana 8 1361 64.94% @ Marsa 0 1170 19.85% 15.21%
24 1980-01-09 32.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1294 78.10% Zebbug Rangers 0 910 7.03% 14.87%
25 1979-11-21 32.4 @ Floriana 1 1448 78.18% Birkirkara 0 1062 6.95% 14.86%