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Opening 2025-26 Maltese Premier League Season

96 games

Final

Champion

Hamrun Spartans

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valletta

18.63 points above expected

29 points · 10.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mosta

9.24 points below expected

16 points · 25.24 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 11 7 2 2 23 17 11 +6 21.24 +1.76
2 Hamrun Spartans 11 6 4 1 22 15 6 +9 19.37 +2.63
3 Valletta 11 6 4 1 22 16 8 +8 14.27 +7.73
4 Sliema Wanderers 11 5 4 2 19 16 14 +2 18.87 +0.13
5 Marsaxlokk 11 5 3 3 18 14 11 +3 17.30 +0.70
6 Birkirkara 11 4 4 3 16 12 8 +4 17.34 -1.34
7 Hibernians 11 4 3 4 15 20 18 +2 15.09 -0.09
8 Gzira United 11 3 4 4 13 14 18 -4 11.73 +1.27
9 Mosta 11 3 2 6 11 13 19 -6 11.72 -0.72
10 St. Patrick 11 2 4 5 10 11 14 -3 12.87 -2.87
11 Naxxar Lions 11 1 2 8 5 10 18 -8 10.14 -5.14
12 Tarxien Rainbows 11 1 2 8 5 8 21 -13 10.11 -5.11
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 16 10 4 2 34 26 10 +16 17.49 +16.51
2 Floriana 16 10 3 3 33 23 15 +8 16.21 +16.79
3 Valletta 16 8 5 3 29 20 11 +9 10.37 +18.63
4 Sliema Wanderers 16 7 5 4 26 21 19 +2 13.32 +12.68
5 Marsaxlokk 16 7 4 5 25 20 16 +4 11.82 +13.18
6 Birkirkara 16 4 4 8 16 15 22 -7 12.51 +3.49
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hibernians 16 6 5 5 23 29 25 +4 32.18 -9.18
2 Gzira United 16 6 4 6 22 21 26 -5 27.05 -5.05
3 St. Patrick 16 3 7 6 16 20 22 -2 24.94 -8.94
4 Mosta 16 4 4 8 16 20 26 -6 25.24 -9.24
5 Naxxar Lions 16 4 3 9 15 18 25 -7 17.03 -2.03
6 Tarxien Rainbows 16 1 4 11 7 13 29 -16 14.26 -7.26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valletta 29 10.37 +18.63
2 Floriana 33 16.21 +16.79
3 Hamrun Spartans 34 17.49 +16.51
4 Marsaxlokk 25 11.82 +13.18
5 Sliema Wanderers 26 13.32 +12.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mosta 16 25.24 -9.24
2 Hibernians 23 32.18 -9.18
3 St. Patrick 16 24.94 -8.94
4 Tarxien Rainbows 7 14.26 -7.26
5 Gzira United 22 27.05 -5.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Naxxar Lions 3 Dec 19 – Jan 11 1 in 32
2 Floriana 5 Sep 20 – Oct 25 1 in 29
3 Valletta 4 Sep 24 – Oct 25 1 in 26
4 Gzira United 4 Nov 3 – Dec 19 1 in 24
5 Hamrun Spartans 3 Oct 29 – Nov 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Birkirkara 6 Nov 1 – Jan 11 1 in 121
2 Tarxien Rainbows 6 Sep 23 – Nov 2 1 in 62
3 Hibernians 4 Sep 27 – Oct 29 1 in 26
4 Mosta 4 Sep 21 – Oct 2 1 in 24
5 Valletta 3 Nov 2 – Dec 14 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valletta 10 Aug 16 – Oct 28 1 in 226
2 Gzira United 7 Oct 2 – Dec 19 1 in 17
3 Sliema Wanderers 6 Oct 5 – Dec 14 1 in 15
4 St. Patrick 4 Nov 2 – Dec 18 1 in 7
5 Hibernians 6 Aug 18 – Sep 23 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tarxien Rainbows 12 Sep 20 – Jan 11 1 in 19
2 Hibernians 6 Sep 27 – Nov 25 1 in 12
3 Mosta 7 Sep 13 – Oct 24 1 in 9
4 St. Patrick 6 Aug 16 – Sep 24 1 in 8
5 Valletta 4 Oct 28 – Dec 14 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hamrun Spartans 1395 34 +30 12 8.9 +3.1
Floriana 1342 33 +4 10 8.6 +1.4
Valletta 1223 29 +18 7 5.3 +1.7
Sliema Wanderers 1276 26 +2 7 6.6 +0.4
Marsaxlokk 1255 25 +13 7 6.0 +1.0
Hibernians 1200 23 -4 8 9.0 -1.0
Gzira United 1125 22 -10 9 7.6 +1.4
St. Patrick 1165 16 +7 6 7.3 -1.3
Mosta 1144 16 +4 5 7.0 -2.0
Birkirkara 1189 16 -68 0 5.4 -5.4
Naxxar Lions 1108 15 +18 10 5.8 +4.2
Tarxien Rainbows 1012 7 -14 2 4.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO GU HS HIB MAR MOS NL SW SP TR VAL
Birkirkara —
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-0
1.86
0-0-2
2.00
0-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-0
1.77
1-0-0
2.04
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-0
1.67
1-0-0
2.00
0-1-1
3.02
Floriana
2-0-0
3.55
 —
0-1-0
2.14
0-0-2
2.97
1-0-0
1.70
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-0
2.02
1-0-0
2.06
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-0
2.05
1-0-0
2.13
0-1-1
3.97
Gzira United
0-1-0
0.87
0-1-0
0.63
 —
0-1-0
0.63
0-0-2
2.14
0-0-1
0.92
2-0-0
2.64
2-0-0
3.23
0-0-1
0.74
0-0-2
2.64
2-0-0
3.57
0-1-0
0.89
Hamrun Spartans
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-0
2.13
 —
1-0-0
1.84
1-0-1
3.58
1-0-0
2.00
0-1-0
2.03
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-0
1.93
0-1-0
2.09
1-1-0
4.08
Hibernians
1-0-0
1.30
0-0-1
1.02
2-0-0
3.29
0-0-1
0.89
 —
0-1-0
1.29
0-1-1
3.39
1-1-0
3.79
0-0-1
1.23
0-2-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.85
0-0-1
1.26
Marsaxlokk
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-0
1.80
1-0-1
1.88
0-1-0
1.43
 —
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
1.82
0-2-0
2.27
1-0-0
1.81
1-0-0
1.83
0-0-2
3.25
Mosta
0-0-1
0.96
0-0-1
0.73
0-0-2
2.79
0-0-1
0.75
1-1-0
2.06
0-0-1
0.98
 —
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-0
0.75
0-2-0
2.65
1-1-0
3.50
0-0-1
1.07
Naxxar Lions
0-0-1
0.72
0-0-1
0.69
0-0-2
2.21
0-1-0
0.72
0-1-1
1.68
0-0-1
0.91
1-0-1
2.40
 —
1-0-0
0.60
1-1-0
2.06
1-0-1
3.27
0-0-1
1.10
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.03
1-0-0
2.01
1-0-1
1.88
1-0-0
1.49
0-2-0
3.17
0-0-1
1.99
0-0-1
2.18
 —
1-0-0
1.80
1-0-0
2.11
1-1-0
3.44
St. Patrick
0-0-1
1.05
0-0-1
0.70
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-1
0.81
0-2-0
2.27
0-0-1
0.92
0-2-0
2.77
0-1-1
3.38
0-0-1
0.93
 —
0-2-0
3.41
1-0-0
0.92
Tarxien Rainbows
0-0-1
0.74
0-0-1
0.63
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-0
0.67
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-1
0.90
0-1-1
1.95
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-1
0.65
0-2-0
2.04
 —
0-0-1
0.96
Valletta
1-1-0
2.42
1-1-0
1.53
0-1-0
1.84
0-1-1
1.43
1-0-0
1.45
2-0-0
2.18
1-0-0
1.65
1-0-0
1.62
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-1
1.81
1-0-0
1.76
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +13.2
Allowed 0.73 -11.1
Differential 0.90 +8.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%10.42%0.52%1.04%—27.60%
19.38%12.50%6.25%4.69%1.04%0.52%34.38%
210.42%6.25%7.29%1.56%——25.52%
30.52%4.69%1.56%1.04%0.52%0.52%8.85%
41.04%1.04%—0.52%——2.60%
5+—0.52%—0.52%——1.04%
Total27.60%34.38%25.52%8.85%2.60%1.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.12 1.58
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%—25.00%———43.75%
16.25%—18.75%——6.25%31.25%
212.50%—6.25%———18.75%
3———————
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total43.75%—50.00%——6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.38 -0.44
SD 1.12 1.59 2.10
CV 1.20 1.15 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—12.50%———18.75%
118.75%6.25%—6.25%——31.25%
212.50%18.75%6.25%———37.50%
3—12.50%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%37.50%18.75%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.94 +0.50
SD 0.96 0.93 1.41
CV 0.67 0.99 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—25.00%———37.50%
16.25%12.50%——6.25%—25.00%
2—12.50%————12.50%
3—12.50%———6.25%18.75%
4———6.25%——6.25%
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%25.00%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.62 -0.31
SD 1.35 1.41 1.62
CV 1.03 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—6.25%———12.50%
118.75%18.75%—6.25%——43.75%
231.25%—————31.25%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total56.25%31.25%6.25%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.62 +1.00
SD 1.41 0.89 1.71
CV 0.87 1.42 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%———25.00%
16.25%6.25%————12.50%
26.25%6.25%18.75%6.25%——37.50%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———6.25%——6.25%
Total12.50%37.50%31.25%18.75%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.56 +0.25
SD 1.47 0.96 1.48
CV 0.81 0.62 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
112.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
212.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
3—12.50%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%31.25%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.00 +0.25
SD 1.00 0.97 1.39
CV 0.80 0.97 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%———25.00%
112.50%12.50%—6.25%6.25%—37.50%
26.25%—12.50%6.25%——25.00%
36.25%———6.25%—12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%25.00%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.62 -0.38
SD 1.00 1.36 1.59
CV 0.80 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
16.25%18.75%6.25%12.50%——43.75%
2—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total12.50%43.75%18.75%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.56 -0.44
SD 1.15 1.03 1.67
CV 1.02 0.66 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%——6.25%—25.00%
16.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
212.50%18.75%12.50%———43.75%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%43.75%25.00%—6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.19 +0.12
SD 0.95 1.05 1.45
CV 0.72 0.88 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
1—25.00%12.50%6.25%——43.75%
218.75%—12.50%———31.25%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%31.25%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.38 -0.12
SD 0.86 0.96 1.26
CV 0.69 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—31.25%6.25%—6.25%—43.75%
1—12.50%12.50%12.50%——37.50%
2——12.50%———12.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total—43.75%37.50%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.81 -1.00
SD 0.91 0.91 1.15
CV 1.12 0.50 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
118.75%18.75%6.25%———43.75%
212.50%6.25%————18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total43.75%43.75%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.69 +0.56
SD 1.13 0.70 1.31
CV 0.90 1.02 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hamrun Spartans 1395 34 19.37 +14.63 80.0% 8 14 16 19 22 25 30
Floriana 1342 33 21.24 +11.76 67.0% 10 15 18 21 24 28 31
Sliema Wanderers 1276 26 18.87 +7.13 56.0% 11 13 16 19 22 25 26
Marsaxlokk 1255 25 17.30 +7.70 59.0% 8 11 14 17 20 24 26
Valletta 1223 29 14.27 +14.73 98.0% 6 7 12 14 18 21 23
Hibernians 1200 23 15.09 +7.91 45.0% 5 6 13 16 18 21 24
Birkirkara 1189 16 17.34 -1.34 47.0% 9 10 14 17 20 24 28
St. Patrick 1165 16 12.87 +3.13 31.0% 4 6 10 13 16 20 23
Mosta 1144 16 11.72 +4.28 55.0% 4 6 9 11 13 20 23
Gzira United 1125 22 11.73 +10.27 73.0% 4 6 9 11 14 18 23
Naxxar Lions 1108 15 10.14 +4.86 13.0% 3 4 7 10 13 16 19
Tarxien Rainbows 1012 7 10.11 -3.11 14.0% 2 3 7 10 13 16 20

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.25%
Clear Edge
39.58%27.08%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.74 Elo pts.
229 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.15 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Hamrun Spartans, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.19 * Some Luck: 3.19 to 4.79 * Lucky: 4.79 to 6.39 * Wild Swing: 6.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.69 * Close: 1.69 to 2.54 * Off: 2.54 to 3.38 * Way Off: 3.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.35 points
Some Luck
03.9910
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.115
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.00%
Valletta
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
13.00%
Naxxar Lions
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 99.20
1.56
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Even
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
6%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.71
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Some Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.49
Very Underconfident
0.3590291.001.64097
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.132
Well Within Noise
00.1830.5

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Hamrun Spartans21.00%18.00%17.00%14.00%13.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Floriana36.00%20.00%12.00%14.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
Valletta2.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%10.00%11.00%17.00%13.00%4.00%9.00%4.00%
Sliema Wanderers14.00%16.00%17.00%16.00%14.00%7.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%—
Marsaxlokk12.00%9.00%15.00%9.00%16.00%11.00%11.00%10.00%3.00%4.00%——
Birkirkara10.00%16.00%9.00%11.00%8.00%20.00%9.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%—
Hibernians1.00%7.00%11.00%11.00%20.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%8.00%
Gzira United1.00%2.00%—5.00%4.00%7.00%7.00%10.00%20.00%19.00%15.00%10.00%
St. Patrick3.00%1.00%5.00%6.00%8.00%6.00%11.00%16.00%16.00%8.00%7.00%13.00%
Mosta—4.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%25.00%14.00%11.00%
Naxxar Lions——1.00%—2.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%10.00%13.00%28.00%26.00%
Tarxien Rainbows—1.00%—1.00%2.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%9.00%18.00%20.00%28.00%
Team123456789101112
Hamrun Spartans38.74%25.89%16.26%10.53%5.60%2.98%——————
Floriana30.62%24.92%18.42%12.57%8.79%4.68%——————
Valletta3.90%8.47%13.10%18.64%24.26%31.63%——————
Sliema Wanderers11.62%17.00%19.41%18.78%18.17%15.02%——————
Marsaxlokk6.74%11.38%15.82%19.74%21.57%24.75%——————
Birkirkara8.38%12.34%16.99%19.74%21.61%20.94%——————
Hibernians——————64.08%21.60%9.99%3.63%0.67%0.03%
Gzira United——————17.07%32.33%27.35%17.28%5.26%0.71%
St. Patrick——————8.69%20.85%26.90%30.56%10.73%2.27%
Mosta——————9.68%22.59%28.55%27.92%9.50%1.76%
Naxxar Lions——————0.36%1.94%5.04%14.39%44.07%34.20%
Tarxien Rainbows——————0.12%0.69%2.17%6.22%29.77%61.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Marsaxlokk 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 99.00% 1.00%
Birkirkara 98.00% 2.00%
Hibernians 94.00% 6.00%
Valletta 92.00% 8.00%
St. Patrick 77.00% 23.00%
Mosta 75.00% 25.00%
Gzira United 71.00% 29.00%
Naxxar Lions 59.00% 41.00%
Tarxien Rainbows 35.00% 65.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Marsaxlokk 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Hibernians 99.30% 0.70%
Gzira United 94.03% 5.97%
Mosta 88.74% 11.26%
St. Patrick 87.00% 13.00%
Naxxar Lions 21.73% 78.27%
Tarxien Rainbows 9.20% 90.80%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-08-16 Sliema Wanderers L 1-243.2 1159 1295 21.82% 27.24% 50.95%-0.50 -6.2 0
2025-08-16 @ St. Patrick W 2-143.2 1295 1159 50.95% 27.24% 21.82%+0.50 +6.2 3
2025-08-16 Birkirkara D 0-048.3 1137 1247 24.43% 27.82% 47.75%-0.39 +1.4 1
2025-08-16 @ Valletta D 0-048.3 1247 1137 47.75% 27.82% 24.43%+0.39 -1.4 1
2025-08-17 Mosta W 3-139.3 1235 1158 48.93% 27.62% 23.45%+0.43 +11.4 3
2025-08-17 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-339.3 1158 1235 23.45% 27.62% 48.93%-0.43 -11.4 0
2025-08-17 Floriana L 1-335.9 1111 1334 14.99% 24.46% 60.55%-0.88 -7.5 0
2025-08-17 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-135.9 1334 1111 60.55% 24.46% 14.99%+0.88 +7.5 3
2025-08-17 Hamrun Spartans D 1-154.6 1089 1324 14.24% 24.00% 61.76%-0.93 +2.7 1
2025-08-17 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 1-154.6 1324 1089 61.76% 24.00% 14.24%+0.93 -2.7 1
2025-08-18 Gzira United W 5-345.0 1200 1144 46.26% 28.03% 25.70%+0.34 +10.4 3
2025-08-18 @ Hibernians L 3-545.0 1144 1200 25.70% 28.03% 46.26%-0.34 -10.4 0
2025-08-22 Mosta L 0-147.4 1302 1147 57.97% 25.36% 16.67%+0.77 -14.2 3
2025-08-22 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-047.4 1147 1302 16.67% 25.36% 57.97%-0.77 +14.2 3
2025-08-23 Gzira United D 0-048.7 1246 1134 53.22% 26.72% 20.06%+0.58 -2.0 2
2025-08-23 @ Birkirkara D 0-048.7 1134 1246 20.06% 26.72% 53.22%-0.58 +2.0 1
2025-08-23 Floriana L 0-133.4 1092 1342 13.36% 23.40% 63.24%-1.00 -4.1 1
2025-08-23 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 1-033.4 1342 1092 63.24% 23.40% 13.36%+1.00 +4.1 6
2025-08-24 Marsaxlokk L 0-136.7 1104 1246 21.27% 27.09% 51.64%-0.53 -6.4 0
2025-08-24 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-036.7 1246 1104 51.64% 27.09% 21.27%+0.53 +6.4 6
2025-08-24 Hibernians D 2-259.2 1153 1210 30.73% 28.57% 40.70%-0.16 +0.4 1
2025-08-24 @ St. Patrick D 2-259.2 1210 1153 40.70% 28.57% 30.73%+0.16 -0.4 4
2025-08-31 Valletta D 1-154.6 1322 1138 60.93% 24.32% 14.75%+0.90 -2.6 2
2025-08-31 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-154.6 1138 1322 14.75% 24.32% 60.93%-0.90 +2.6 2
2025-09-12 Gzira United D 1-155.0 1346 1136 63.58% 23.25% 13.16%+1.01 -2.9 7
2025-09-12 @ Floriana D 1-155.0 1136 1346 13.16% 23.25% 63.58%-1.01 +2.9 2
2025-09-12 Marsaxlokk W 3-146.7 1141 1253 24.32% 27.80% 47.88%-0.39 +19.7 5
2025-09-12 @ Valletta L 1-346.7 1253 1141 47.88% 27.80% 24.32%+0.39 -19.7 6
2025-09-13 Mosta W 2-030.6 1319 1161 58.30% 25.25% 16.44%+0.78 +9.5 5
2025-09-13 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-230.6 1161 1319 16.44% 25.25% 58.30%-0.78 -9.5 3
2025-09-13 Birkirkara W 2-148.3 1210 1244 33.87% 28.70% 37.42%-0.05 +9.4 7
2025-09-13 @ Hibernians L 1-248.3 1244 1210 37.42% 28.70% 33.87%+0.05 -9.4 2
2025-09-13 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-033.5 1287 1088 62.56% 23.68% 13.76%+0.97 +4.2 6
2025-09-13 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-133.5 1088 1287 13.76% 23.68% 62.56%-0.97 -4.2 1
2025-09-13 Naxxar Lions D 1-153.2 1153 1097 46.27% 28.03% 25.70%+0.34 -1.1 2
2025-09-13 @ St. Patrick D 1-153.2 1097 1153 25.70% 28.03% 46.27%-0.34 +1.1 1
2025-09-16 Valletta L 0-243.7 1343 1160 60.85% 24.35% 14.80%+0.89 -27.8 7
2025-09-16 @ Floriana W 2-043.7 1160 1343 14.80% 24.35% 60.85%-0.89 +27.8 8
2025-09-16 Tarxien Rainbows L 2-354.1 1098 1084 40.81% 28.57% 30.62%+0.16 -9.5 1
2025-09-16 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-254.1 1084 1098 30.62% 28.57% 40.81%-0.16 +9.5 4
2025-09-16 Birkirkara D 2-259.8 1292 1235 46.45% 28.01% 25.55%+0.34 -0.8 7
2025-09-16 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-259.8 1235 1292 25.55% 28.01% 46.45%-0.34 +0.8 3
2025-09-16 Hamrun Spartans L 0-135.8 1152 1328 18.33% 26.10% 55.57%-0.68 -5.6 2
2025-09-16 @ St. Patrick W 1-035.8 1328 1152 55.57% 26.10% 18.33%+0.68 +5.6 8
2025-09-17 Gzira United W 2-032.6 1233 1139 51.06% 27.21% 21.73%+0.51 +12.3 9
2025-09-17 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-232.6 1139 1233 21.73% 27.21% 51.06%-0.51 -12.3 2
2025-09-17 Hibernians D 2-259.2 1151 1219 29.40% 28.47% 42.13%-0.20 +0.5 4
2025-09-17 @ Mosta D 2-259.2 1219 1151 42.13% 28.47% 29.40%+0.20 -0.5 8
2025-09-20 Gzira United D 0-049.8 1334 1126 63.33% 23.36% 13.31%+1.00 -3.2 9
2025-09-20 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.8 1126 1334 13.31% 23.36% 63.33%-1.00 +3.2 3
2025-09-20 Naxxar Lions W 2-031.2 1219 1089 55.22% 26.20% 18.58%+0.66 +10.7 11
2025-09-20 @ Hibernians L 0-231.2 1089 1219 18.58% 26.20% 55.22%-0.66 -10.7 1
2025-09-20 Floriana L 1-246.1 1245 1315 29.12% 28.45% 42.43%-0.21 -7.8 9
2025-09-20 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-146.1 1315 1245 42.43% 28.45% 29.12%+0.21 +7.8 10
2025-09-20 St. Patrick D 1-153.0 1093 1146 31.29% 28.61% 40.10%-0.14 +0.5 5
2025-09-20 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 1-153.0 1146 1093 40.10% 28.61% 31.29%+0.14 -0.5 3
2025-09-21 Mosta W 2-033.0 1235 1152 49.80% 27.46% 22.74%+0.46 +12.8 6
2025-09-21 @ Birkirkara L 0-233.0 1152 1235 22.74% 27.46% 49.80%-0.46 -12.8 4
2025-09-21 Valletta D 1-153.8 1291 1188 52.08% 26.99% 20.93%+0.54 -1.7 8
2025-09-21 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.8 1188 1291 20.93% 26.99% 52.08%-0.54 +1.7 9
2025-09-23 Hamrun Spartans L 0-234.8 1237 1331 26.34% 28.13% 45.54%-0.31 -14.5 9
2025-09-23 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-034.8 1331 1237 45.54% 28.13% 26.34%+0.31 +14.5 12
2025-09-23 Hibernians L 1-338.6 1094 1229 21.88% 27.25% 50.87%-0.50 -10.8 5
2025-09-23 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-138.6 1229 1094 50.87% 27.25% 21.88%+0.50 +10.7 14
2025-09-24 Naxxar Lions W 1-034.3 1248 1078 59.57% 24.82% 15.61%+0.84 +4.8 9
2025-09-24 @ Birkirkara L 0-134.3 1078 1248 15.61% 24.82% 59.57%-0.84 -4.8 1
2025-09-24 St. Patrick W 3-136.0 1323 1146 60.31% 24.55% 15.14%+0.87 +7.6 13
2025-09-24 @ Floriana L 1-336.0 1146 1323 15.14% 24.55% 60.31%-0.87 -7.6 3
2025-09-24 Gzira United W 2-030.4 1289 1130 58.45% 25.20% 16.34%+0.79 +9.5 11
2025-09-24 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-230.4 1130 1289 16.34% 25.20% 58.45%-0.79 -9.5 3
2025-09-24 Mosta W 4-137.3 1190 1139 45.67% 28.11% 26.22%+0.32 +17.7 12
2025-09-24 @ Valletta L 1-437.3 1139 1190 26.22% 28.11% 45.67%-0.32 -17.7 4
2025-09-27 Hibernians W 2-032.8 1345 1240 52.37% 26.92% 20.70%+0.55 +11.8 15
2025-09-27 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-232.8 1240 1345 20.70% 26.92% 52.37%-0.55 -11.8 14
2025-09-27 Floriana L 0-134.7 1121 1331 15.89% 24.97% 59.14%-0.82 -4.9 4
2025-09-27 @ Mosta W 1-034.7 1331 1121 59.14% 24.97% 15.89%+0.82 +4.9 16
2025-09-28 Birkirkara D 0-048.3 1223 1253 34.43% 28.71% 36.86%-0.04 +0.1 10
2025-09-28 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-048.3 1253 1223 36.86% 28.71% 34.43%+0.04 -0.1 10
2025-09-28 Naxxar Lions L 0-442.6 1299 1073 65.01% 22.63% 12.35%+1.08 -55.6 11
2025-09-28 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-042.6 1073 1299 12.35% 22.63% 65.01%-1.08 +55.5 4
2025-09-28 Gzira United W 2-035.4 1138 1120 41.26% 28.54% 30.21%+0.17 +16.1 6
2025-09-28 @ St. Patrick L 0-235.4 1120 1138 30.21% 28.54% 41.26%-0.17 -16.1 3
2025-09-28 Valletta L 1-243.4 1083 1208 22.97% 27.51% 49.52%-0.45 -6.5 5
2025-09-28 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-143.4 1208 1083 49.52% 27.51% 22.97%+0.45 +6.5 15
2025-10-02 Gzira United L 3-456.3 1116 1104 40.46% 28.59% 30.95%+0.15 -9.2 4
2025-10-02 @ Mosta W 4-356.3 1104 1116 30.95% 28.59% 40.46%-0.15 +9.2 6
2025-10-02 Marsaxlokk L 0-232.2 1076 1223 20.88% 26.97% 52.15%-0.54 -11.9 5
2025-10-02 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-032.2 1223 1076 52.15% 26.97% 20.88%+0.54 +11.9 13
2025-10-03 Floriana L 0-138.6 1228 1336 24.80% 27.88% 47.31%-0.37 -7.3 14
2025-10-03 @ Hibernians W 1-038.6 1336 1228 47.31% 27.88% 24.80%+0.37 +7.3 19
2025-10-03 Birkirkara L 0-234.1 1154 1253 25.76% 28.04% 46.19%-0.34 -14.2 6
2025-10-03 @ St. Patrick W 2-034.1 1253 1154 46.19% 28.04% 25.76%+0.34 +14.2 13
2025-10-05 Valletta L 0-138.9 1129 1214 27.30% 28.26% 44.44%-0.28 -7.9 4
2025-10-05 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-038.9 1214 1129 44.44% 28.26% 27.30%+0.28 +7.9 18
2025-10-05 Hamrun Spartans W 2-041.4 1243 1357 24.08% 27.75% 48.17%-0.40 +22.9 14
2025-10-05 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-241.4 1357 1243 48.17% 27.75% 24.08%+0.40 -22.9 15
2025-10-24 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-140.2 1113 1064 45.39% 28.15% 26.46%+0.31 +12.6 9
2025-10-24 @ Gzira United L 1-340.2 1064 1113 26.46% 28.15% 45.39%-0.31 -12.6 5
2025-10-24 St. Patrick D 1-153.0 1107 1140 34.04% 28.71% 37.25%-0.05 +0.2 5
2025-10-24 @ Mosta D 1-153.0 1140 1107 37.25% 28.71% 34.04%+0.05 -0.2 7
2025-10-25 Birkirkara W 2-034.1 1343 1267 48.83% 27.64% 23.54%+0.43 +13.2 22
2025-10-25 @ Floriana L 0-234.1 1267 1343 23.54% 27.64% 48.83%-0.43 -13.2 13
2025-10-25 Hibernians W 1-040.7 1222 1221 38.87% 28.66% 32.47%+0.10 +9.0 21
2025-10-25 @ Valletta L 0-140.7 1221 1222 32.47% 28.66% 38.87%-0.10 -9.0 14
2025-10-26 Hamrun Spartans D 1-154.4 1121 1334 15.64% 24.84% 59.52%-0.84 +2.5 5
2025-10-26 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-154.4 1334 1121 59.52% 24.84% 15.64%+0.84 -2.5 16
2025-10-26 Marsaxlokk D 1-153.5 1266 1235 43.02% 28.40% 28.58%+0.23 -0.8 15
2025-10-26 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.5 1235 1266 28.58% 28.40% 43.02%-0.23 +0.8 14
2025-10-28 Birkirkara L 0-428.7 1052 1254 16.40% 25.23% 58.37%-0.79 -18.0 5
2025-10-28 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 4-028.7 1254 1052 58.37% 25.23% 16.40%+0.79 +18.0 16
2025-10-28 Gzira United D 1-153.6 1231 1126 52.38% 26.92% 20.70%+0.55 -1.7 22
2025-10-28 @ Valletta D 1-153.6 1126 1231 20.70% 26.92% 52.38%-0.55 +1.7 10
2025-10-29 Hamrun Spartans L 1-346.7 1356 1332 42.12% 28.47% 29.40%+0.20 -17.8 22
2025-10-29 @ Floriana W 3-146.7 1332 1356 29.40% 28.47% 42.12%-0.20 +17.8 19
2025-10-29 Sliema Wanderers L 2-351.6 1212 1265 31.31% 28.61% 40.08%-0.14 -7.8 14
2025-10-29 @ Hibernians W 3-251.6 1265 1212 40.08% 28.61% 31.31%+0.14 +7.8 18
2025-10-29 St. Patrick W 1-036.9 1236 1140 51.25% 27.17% 21.58%+0.51 +6.5 17
2025-10-29 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-136.9 1140 1236 21.58% 27.17% 51.25%-0.51 -6.5 7
2025-10-29 Naxxar Lions W 3-034.9 1107 1124 36.43% 28.72% 34.85%+0.02 +26.0 8
2025-10-29 @ Mosta L 0-334.9 1124 1107 34.85% 28.72% 36.43%-0.02 -26.0 5
2025-11-01 Hamrun Spartans L 0-235.8 1272 1350 28.22% 28.36% 43.42%-0.24 -15.3 16
2025-11-01 @ Birkirkara W 2-035.8 1350 1272 43.42% 28.36% 28.22%+0.24 +15.3 22
2025-11-01 Sliema Wanderers D 2-260.3 1338 1273 47.51% 27.85% 24.64%+0.38 -0.9 23
2025-11-01 @ Floriana D 2-260.3 1273 1338 24.64% 27.85% 47.51%-0.38 +0.9 19
2025-11-01 Marsaxlokk D 2-259.3 1204 1242 33.36% 28.69% 37.95%-0.07 +0.2 15
2025-11-01 @ Hibernians D 2-259.3 1242 1204 37.95% 28.69% 33.36%+0.07 -0.2 18
2025-11-02 Mosta L 0-138.2 1034 1133 25.66% 28.03% 46.32%-0.34 -7.5 5
2025-11-02 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 1-038.2 1133 1034 46.32% 28.03% 25.66%+0.34 +7.5 11
2025-11-02 St. Patrick L 0-241.4 1229 1133 51.27% 27.17% 21.56%+0.51 -24.1 22
2025-11-02 @ Valletta W 2-041.4 1133 1229 21.56% 27.17% 51.27%-0.51 +24.1 10
2025-11-03 Naxxar Lions W 2-145.3 1128 1098 42.88% 28.41% 28.71%+0.23 +7.7 13
2025-11-03 @ Gzira United L 1-245.3 1098 1128 28.71% 28.41% 42.88%-0.23 -7.7 5

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-11-22 Valletta W 1-035.3 1365 1205 58.47% 25.20% 16.33%+0.79 +5.0 3
2025-11-22 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-135.3 1205 1365 16.33% 25.20% 58.47%-0.79 -5.0 0
2025-11-23 Marsaxlokk W 2-143.6 1337 1242 51.23% 27.17% 21.59%+0.51 +6.1 3
2025-11-23 @ Floriana L 1-243.6 1242 1337 21.59% 27.17% 51.23%-0.51 -6.1 0
2025-11-23 Birkirkara W 2-146.4 1274 1257 41.13% 28.55% 30.32%+0.17 +8.1 3
2025-11-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-246.4 1257 1274 30.32% 28.55% 41.13%-0.17 -8.1 0
2025-11-24 Mosta W 1-040.8 1135 1141 37.97% 28.69% 33.34%+0.07 +9.2 3
2025-11-24 @ Gzira United L 0-140.8 1141 1135 33.34% 28.69% 37.97%-0.07 -9.2 0
2025-11-24 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-259.8 1158 1026 55.39% 26.15% 18.46%+0.67 -1.5 1
2025-11-24 @ St. Patrick D 2-259.8 1026 1158 18.46% 26.15% 55.39%-0.67 +1.5 1
2025-11-25 Naxxar Lions D 1-153.6 1204 1090 53.48% 26.66% 19.86%+0.59 -1.9 1
2025-11-25 @ Hibernians D 1-153.6 1090 1204 19.86% 26.66% 53.48%-0.59 +1.9 1
2025-12-11 Naxxar Lions W 3-140.1 1145 1092 45.91% 28.08% 26.01%+0.33 +12.4 6
2025-12-11 @ Gzira United L 1-340.1 1092 1145 26.01% 28.08% 45.91%-0.33 -12.4 1
2025-12-12 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-034.1 1203 1028 60.05% 24.65% 15.31%+0.86 +4.7 4
2025-12-12 @ Hibernians L 0-134.1 1028 1203 15.31% 24.65% 60.05%-0.86 -4.7 1
2025-12-12 St. Patrick D 1-153.0 1132 1156 35.25% 28.72% 36.03%-0.01 +0.0 1
2025-12-12 @ Mosta D 1-153.0 1156 1132 36.03% 28.72% 35.25%+0.01 -0.0 2
2025-12-13 Birkirkara W 2-033.3 1344 1249 51.17% 27.19% 21.64%+0.51 +12.3 6
2025-12-13 @ Floriana L 0-233.3 1249 1344 21.64% 27.19% 51.17%-0.51 -12.3 0
2025-12-14 Marsaxlokk L 1-349.3 1370 1236 55.69% 26.07% 18.25%+0.68 -22.4 3
2025-12-14 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-149.3 1236 1370 18.25% 26.07% 55.69%-0.68 +22.4 3
2025-12-14 Sliema Wanderers L 1-245.3 1200 1282 27.70% 28.30% 44.00%-0.26 -7.5 0
2025-12-14 @ Valletta W 2-145.3 1282 1200 44.00% 28.30% 27.70%+0.26 +7.5 6
2025-12-18 St. Patrick D 3-363.0 1207 1156 45.69% 28.11% 26.20%+0.32 -0.6 5
2025-12-18 @ Hibernians D 3-363.0 1156 1207 26.20% 28.11% 45.69%-0.32 +0.6 3
2025-12-19 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-141.5 1157 1023 55.67% 26.07% 18.26%+0.68 +5.3 9
2025-12-19 @ Gzira United L 1-241.5 1023 1157 18.26% 26.07% 55.67%-0.68 -5.3 1
2025-12-19 Naxxar Lions L 2-355.5 1132 1079 45.85% 28.09% 26.07%+0.32 -10.4 1
2025-12-19 @ Mosta W 3-255.5 1079 1132 26.07% 28.09% 45.85%-0.32 +10.4 4
2025-12-20 Marsaxlokk W 1-043.5 1193 1258 29.70% 28.50% 41.80%-0.19 +10.8 3
2025-12-20 @ Valletta L 0-143.5 1258 1193 41.80% 28.50% 29.70%+0.19 -10.9 3
2025-12-21 Sliema Wanderers W 2-145.2 1356 1290 47.63% 27.83% 24.53%+0.38 +6.8 9
2025-12-21 @ Floriana L 1-245.2 1290 1356 24.53% 27.83% 47.63%-0.38 -6.8 6
2025-12-21 Birkirkara W 6-134.5 1347 1236 53.08% 26.75% 20.16%+0.58 +22.4 6
2025-12-21 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-634.5 1236 1347 20.16% 26.75% 53.08%-0.58 -22.4 0
2026-01-06 Gzira United W 4-137.6 1207 1162 44.79% 28.22% 26.99%+0.29 +18.1 8
2026-01-06 @ Hibernians L 1-437.6 1162 1207 26.99% 28.22% 44.79%-0.29 -18.1 9
2026-01-06 Marsaxlokk D 0-048.6 1283 1247 43.60% 28.34% 28.06%+0.25 -0.9 7
2026-01-06 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-048.6 1247 1283 28.06% 28.34% 43.60%-0.25 +0.9 4
2026-01-07 Hamrun Spartans L 0-240.0 1363 1370 37.73% 28.70% 33.58%+0.06 -18.9 9
2026-01-07 @ Floriana W 2-040.0 1370 1363 33.58% 28.70% 37.73%-0.06 +18.9 9
2026-01-07 Birkirkara W 2-036.8 1203 1214 37.25% 28.71% 34.05%+0.05 +17.6 6
2026-01-07 @ Valletta L 0-236.8 1214 1203 34.05% 28.71% 37.25%-0.05 -17.6 0
2026-01-08 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-259.5 1121 1018 52.18% 26.97% 20.85%+0.55 -1.3 2
2026-01-08 @ Mosta D 2-259.5 1018 1121 20.85% 26.97% 52.18%-0.55 +1.3 2
2026-01-08 Naxxar Lions L 1-250.9 1157 1090 47.71% 27.82% 24.46%+0.39 -11.4 3
2026-01-08 @ St. Patrick W 2-150.9 1090 1157 24.46% 27.82% 47.71%-0.39 +11.4 7
2026-01-10 Valletta D 0-049.3 1344 1221 54.41% 26.42% 19.17%+0.63 -2.2 10
2026-01-10 @ Floriana D 0-049.3 1221 1344 19.17% 26.42% 54.41%-0.63 +2.2 7
2026-01-10 Sliema Wanderers W 1-037.9 1389 1282 52.60% 26.87% 20.53%+0.56 +6.2 12
2026-01-10 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-137.9 1282 1389 20.53% 26.87% 52.60%-0.56 -6.2 7
2026-01-11 St. Patrick L 0-238.0 1144 1145 38.57% 28.67% 32.75%+0.09 -19.2 9
2026-01-11 @ Gzira United W 2-038.0 1145 1144 32.75% 28.67% 38.57%-0.09 +19.3 6
2026-01-11 Mosta L 0-241.6 1225 1120 52.33% 26.93% 20.74%+0.55 -24.5 8
2026-01-11 @ Hibernians W 2-041.6 1120 1225 20.74% 26.93% 52.33%-0.55 +24.5 5
2026-01-11 Birkirkara W 2-144.7 1248 1196 45.77% 28.10% 26.13%+0.32 +7.2 7
2026-01-11 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-244.7 1196 1248 26.13% 28.10% 45.77%-0.32 -7.2 0
2026-01-11 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-037.2 1101 1019 49.59% 27.50% 22.91%+0.45 +6.8 10
2026-01-11 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-137.2 1019 1101 22.91% 27.50% 49.59%-0.45 -6.8 2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-09-28 12.35% Naxxar Lions 1073 4 @ Sliema Wanderers 1299 0
2 2025-09-16 14.80% Valletta 1160 2 @ Floriana 1343 0
3 2025-08-22 16.67% Mosta 1147 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1302 0
4 2025-12-14 18.25% Marsaxlokk 1236 3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1370 1
5 2026-01-11 20.74% Mosta 1120 2 @ Hibernians 1225 0
6 2025-11-02 21.56% St. Patrick 1133 2 @ Valletta 1229 0
7 2025-10-05 24.08% @ Sliema Wanderers 1243 2 Hamrun Spartans 1357 0
8 2025-09-12 24.32% @ Valletta 1141 3 Marsaxlokk 1253 1
9 2026-01-08 24.46% Naxxar Lions 1090 2 @ St. Patrick 1157 1
10 2025-12-19 26.07% Naxxar Lions 1079 3 @ Mosta 1132 2
11 2025-10-29 29.40% Hamrun Spartans 1332 3 @ Floriana 1356 1
12 2025-12-20 29.70% @ Valletta 1193 1 Marsaxlokk 1258 0
13 2025-09-16 30.62% Tarxien Rainbows 1084 3 @ Naxxar Lions 1098 2
14 2025-10-02 30.95% Gzira United 1104 4 @ Mosta 1116 3
15 2026-01-11 32.75% St. Patrick 1145 2 @ Gzira United 1144 0
16 2026-01-07 33.58% Hamrun Spartans 1370 2 @ Floriana 1363 0
17 2025-09-13 33.87% @ Hibernians 1210 2 Birkirkara 1244 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-09-28 55.56 Naxxar Lions 4 1073 12.35% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1299 65.01% 22.63%
2 2025-09-16 27.78 Valletta 2 1160 14.80% @ Floriana 0 1343 60.85% 24.35%
3 2025-10-29 25.98 @ Mosta 3 1107 36.43% Naxxar Lions 0 1124 34.85% 28.72%
4 2026-01-11 24.51 Mosta 2 1120 20.74% @ Hibernians 0 1225 52.33% 26.93%
5 2025-11-02 24.10 St. Patrick 2 1133 21.56% @ Valletta 0 1229 51.27% 27.17%
6 2025-10-05 22.90 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1243 24.08% Hamrun Spartans 0 1357 48.17% 27.75%
7 2025-12-14 22.36 Marsaxlokk 3 1236 18.25% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1370 55.69% 26.07%
8 2025-12-21 22.36 @ Hamrun Spartans 6 1347 53.08% Birkirkara 1 1236 20.16% 26.75%
9 2025-09-12 19.73 @ Valletta 3 1141 24.32% Marsaxlokk 1 1253 47.88% 27.80%
10 2026-01-11 19.26 St. Patrick 2 1145 32.75% @ Gzira United 0 1144 38.57% 28.67%
11 2026-01-07 18.94 Hamrun Spartans 2 1370 33.58% @ Floriana 0 1363 37.73% 28.70%
12 2026-01-06 18.08 @ Hibernians 4 1207 44.79% Gzira United 1 1162 26.99% 28.22%
13 2025-10-28 18.04 Birkirkara 4 1254 58.37% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1052 16.40% 25.23%
14 2025-10-29 17.82 Hamrun Spartans 3 1332 29.40% @ Floriana 1 1356 42.12% 28.47%
15 2025-09-24 17.67 @ Valletta 4 1190 45.67% Mosta 1 1139 26.22% 28.11%
16 2026-01-07 17.59 @ Valletta 2 1203 37.25% Birkirkara 0 1214 34.05% 28.71%
17 2025-09-28 16.10 @ St. Patrick 2 1138 41.26% Gzira United 0 1120 30.21% 28.54%
18 2025-11-01 15.28 Hamrun Spartans 2 1350 43.42% @ Birkirkara 0 1272 28.22% 28.36%
19 2025-09-23 14.48 Hamrun Spartans 2 1331 45.54% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1237 26.34% 28.13%
20 2025-10-03 14.22 Birkirkara 2 1253 46.19% @ St. Patrick 0 1154 25.76% 28.04%
21 2025-08-22 14.16 Mosta 1 1147 16.67% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1302 57.97% 25.36%
22 2025-10-25 13.20 @ Floriana 2 1343 48.83% Birkirkara 0 1267 23.54% 27.64%
23 2025-09-21 12.83 @ Birkirkara 2 1235 49.80% Mosta 0 1152 22.74% 27.46%
24 2025-10-24 12.59 @ Gzira United 3 1113 45.39% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1064 26.46% 28.15%
25 2025-12-11 12.41 @ Gzira United 3 1145 45.91% Naxxar Lions 1 1092 26.01% 28.08%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-12-18 63.0 @ Hibernians 3 1207 45.69% St. Patrick 3 1156 26.20% 28.11%
2 2025-11-01 60.3 @ Floriana 2 1338 47.51% Sliema Wanderers 2 1273 24.64% 27.85%
3 2025-09-16 59.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1292 46.45% Birkirkara 2 1235 25.55% 28.01%
4 2025-11-24 59.8 @ St. Patrick 2 1158 55.39% Tarxien Rainbows 2 1026 18.46% 26.15%
5 2026-01-08 59.5 @ Mosta 2 1121 52.18% Tarxien Rainbows 2 1018 20.85% 26.97%
6 2025-11-01 59.3 @ Hibernians 2 1204 33.36% Marsaxlokk 2 1242 37.95% 28.69%
7 2025-08-24 59.2 @ St. Patrick 2 1153 30.73% Hibernians 2 1210 40.70% 28.57%
8 2025-09-17 59.2 @ Mosta 2 1151 29.40% Hibernians 2 1219 42.13% 28.47%
9 2025-10-02 56.3 Gzira United 4 1104 30.95% @ Mosta 3 1116 40.46% 28.59%
10 2025-12-19 55.5 Naxxar Lions 3 1079 26.07% @ Mosta 2 1132 45.85% 28.09%
11 2025-09-12 55.0 @ Floriana 1 1346 63.58% Gzira United 1 1136 13.16% 23.25%
12 2025-08-17 54.6 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1 1089 14.24% Hamrun Spartans 1 1324 61.76% 24.00%
13 2025-08-31 54.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1322 60.93% Valletta 1 1138 14.75% 24.32%
14 2025-10-26 54.4 @ Naxxar Lions 1 1121 15.64% Hamrun Spartans 1 1334 59.52% 24.84%
15 2025-09-16 54.1 Tarxien Rainbows 3 1084 30.62% @ Naxxar Lions 2 1098 40.81% 28.57%
16 2025-09-21 53.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1291 52.08% Valletta 1 1188 20.93% 26.99%
17 2025-10-28 53.6 @ Valletta 1 1231 52.38% Gzira United 1 1126 20.70% 26.92%
18 2025-11-25 53.6 @ Hibernians 1 1204 53.48% Naxxar Lions 1 1090 19.86% 26.66%
19 2025-10-26 53.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1266 43.02% Marsaxlokk 1 1235 28.58% 28.40%
20 2025-09-13 53.2 @ St. Patrick 1 1153 46.27% Naxxar Lions 1 1097 25.70% 28.03%
21 2025-09-20 53.0 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1 1093 31.29% St. Patrick 1 1146 40.10% 28.61%
22 2025-10-24 53.0 @ Mosta 1 1107 34.04% St. Patrick 1 1140 37.25% 28.71%
23 2025-12-12 53.0 @ Mosta 1 1132 35.25% St. Patrick 1 1156 36.03% 28.72%
24 2025-10-29 51.6 Sliema Wanderers 3 1265 40.08% @ Hibernians 2 1212 31.31% 28.61%
25 2026-01-08 50.9 Naxxar Lions 2 1090 24.46% @ St. Patrick 1 1157 47.71% 27.82%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-10-28 28.7 Birkirkara 4 1254 58.37% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1052 16.40% 25.23%
2 2025-09-24 30.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1289 58.45% Gzira United 0 1130 16.34% 25.20%
3 2025-09-13 30.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1319 58.30% Mosta 0 1161 16.44% 25.25%
4 2025-09-20 31.2 @ Hibernians 2 1219 55.22% Naxxar Lions 0 1089 18.58% 26.20%
5 2025-10-02 32.2 Marsaxlokk 2 1223 52.15% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1076 20.88% 26.97%
6 2025-09-17 32.6 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1233 51.06% Gzira United 0 1139 21.73% 27.21%
7 2025-09-27 32.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1345 52.37% Hibernians 0 1240 20.70% 26.92%
8 2025-09-21 33.0 @ Birkirkara 2 1235 49.80% Mosta 0 1152 22.74% 27.46%
9 2025-12-13 33.3 @ Floriana 2 1344 51.17% Birkirkara 0 1249 21.64% 27.19%
10 2025-08-23 33.4 Floriana 1 1342 63.24% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1092 13.36% 23.40%
11 2025-09-13 33.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1287 62.56% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1088 13.76% 23.68%
12 2025-10-03 34.1 Birkirkara 2 1253 46.19% @ St. Patrick 0 1154 25.76% 28.04%
13 2025-10-25 34.1 @ Floriana 2 1343 48.83% Birkirkara 0 1267 23.54% 27.64%
14 2025-12-12 34.1 @ Hibernians 1 1203 60.05% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1028 15.31% 24.65%
15 2025-09-24 34.3 @ Birkirkara 1 1248 59.57% Naxxar Lions 0 1078 15.61% 24.82%
16 2025-12-21 34.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 6 1347 53.08% Birkirkara 1 1236 20.16% 26.75%
17 2025-09-27 34.7 Floriana 1 1331 59.14% @ Mosta 0 1121 15.89% 24.97%
18 2025-09-23 34.8 Hamrun Spartans 2 1331 45.54% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1237 26.34% 28.13%
19 2025-10-29 34.9 @ Mosta 3 1107 36.43% Naxxar Lions 0 1124 34.85% 28.72%
20 2025-11-22 35.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1365 58.47% Valletta 0 1205 16.33% 25.20%
21 2025-09-28 35.4 @ St. Patrick 2 1138 41.26% Gzira United 0 1120 30.21% 28.54%
22 2025-09-16 35.8 Hamrun Spartans 1 1328 55.57% @ St. Patrick 0 1152 18.33% 26.10%
23 2025-11-01 35.8 Hamrun Spartans 2 1350 43.42% @ Birkirkara 0 1272 28.22% 28.36%
24 2025-08-17 35.9 Floriana 3 1334 60.55% @ Naxxar Lions 1 1111 14.99% 24.46%
25 2025-09-24 36.0 @ Floriana 3 1323 60.31% St. Patrick 1 1146 15.14% 24.55%