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2000-01 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

67 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sheriff Tiraspol

12.35 points above expected

67 points · 54.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FC Olimpia Balti

9.34 points below expected

14 points · 23.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 21 4 3 67 58 18 +40 54.65 +12.35
2 Zimbru 28 20 6 2 66 46 15 +31 59.39 +6.61
3 Tiligul 28 11 8 9 41 33 34 -1 39.93 +1.07
4 Constructorul Chisinau 28 10 9 9 39 30 30 0 42.23 -3.23
5 Nistru Otaci 28 9 6 13 33 31 39 -8 37.06 -4.06
6 Agro Chisinau 28 6 7 15 25 26 47 -21 24.52 +0.48
7 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 28 6 7 15 25 34 45 -11 28.60 -3.60
8 FC Olimpia Balti 28 3 5 20 14 19 49 -30 23.34 -9.34

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 67 54.65 +12.35
2 Zimbru 66 59.39 +6.61
3 Tiligul 41 39.93 +1.07
4 Agro Chisinau 25 24.52 +0.48
5 Constructorul Chisinau 39 42.23 -3.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Olimpia Balti 14 23.34 -9.34
2 Nistru Otaci 33 37.06 -4.06
3 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 25 28.60 -3.60
4 Constructorul Chisinau 39 42.23 -3.23
5 Agro Chisinau 25 24.52 +0.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 10 Apr 14 – Jun 12 1 in 89
2 Zimbru 8 Sep 27 – Mar 10 1 in 60
3 Agro Chisinau 2 Sep 23 – Oct 1 1 in 11
4 Tiligul 3 Oct 15 – Oct 29 1 in 6
5 Nistru Otaci 2 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Olimpia Balti 7 Sep 23 – Mar 10 1 in 99
2 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 14
3 Tiligul 3 Apr 28 – May 9 1 in 9
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Sep 23 – Sep 23 1 in 7
5 Nistru Otaci 3 Oct 15 – Oct 29 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tiligul 8 Aug 26 – Oct 29 1 in 55
2 Sheriff Tiraspol 14 Mar 10 – Jun 12 1 in 16
3 Zimbru 16 Jul 30 – Mar 18 1 in 14
4 Constructorul Chisinau 6 Oct 1 – Nov 12 1 in 8
5 Agro Chisinau 3 Sep 17 – Oct 1 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Constructorul Chisinau 7 Mar 10 – Apr 28 1 in 77
2 Tiligul 6 Apr 14 – May 13 1 in 25
3 Agro Chisinau 13 Oct 15 – May 6 1 in 20
4 FC Olimpia Balti 10 Aug 26 – Mar 10 1 in 12
5 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 7 Aug 19 – Oct 1 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1607 67 +64 15 10.5 +4.5
Zimbru 1566 66 -10 12 11.2 +0.8
Constructorul Chisinau 1337 39 +9 9 8.2 +0.8
Tiligul 1266 38 +2 7 7.7 -0.7
Nistru Otaci 1236 33 -20 2 4.8 -2.8
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1217 25 -18 5 5.3 -0.3
Agro Chisinau 1167 22 +33 6 3.8 +2.2
FC Olimpia Balti 1060 14 -60 1 4.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC CC FOB HH NO ST TIL ZIM
Agro Chisinau —
1-2-1
3.13
3-1-0
5.20
2-1-1
4.50
0-1-3
3.68
0-0-4
1.91
0-1-3
3.69
0-1-3
1.73
Constructorul Chisinau
1-2-1
7.92
—
3-1-0
8.02
3-1-0
7.24
2-0-2
6.43
0-2-2
3.48
1-1-2
6.10
0-2-2
3.08
FC Olimpia Balti
0-1-3
5.81
0-1-3
3.06
—
0-1-3
4.85
1-1-2
3.70
0-1-3
2.18
2-0-2
3.28
0-0-4
1.60
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti
1-1-2
6.50
0-1-3
3.79
3-1-0
6.16
—
1-1-2
4.38
0-0-4
2.38
1-1-2
4.20
0-2-2
1.98
Nistru Otaci
3-1-0
7.35
2-0-2
4.57
2-1-1
7.33
2-1-1
6.64
—
0-0-4
2.86
0-3-1
5.39
0-0-4
2.63
Sheriff Tiraspol
4-0-0
9.28
2-2-0
7.57
3-1-0
8.97
4-0-0
8.75
4-0-0
8.23
—
2-1-1
7.80
2-0-2
4.52
Tiligul
3-1-0
7.35
2-1-1
4.91
2-0-2
7.78
2-1-1
6.83
1-3-0
5.61
1-1-2
3.26
—
0-1-3
2.66
Zimbru
3-1-0
9.48
2-2-0
7.98
4-0-0
9.63
2-2-0
9.20
4-0-0
8.47
2-0-2
6.48
3-1-0
8.44
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +14.5
Allowed 0.96 -14.5
Differential 0.98 +7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.04%11.16%6.70%2.68%0.45%0.45%29.46%
111.16%12.50%5.36%3.57%1.34%1.79%35.71%
26.70%5.36%2.68%3.12%0.45%0.45%18.75%
32.68%3.57%3.12%———9.38%
40.45%1.34%0.45%———2.23%
5+0.45%1.79%0.45%——1.79%4.46%
Total29.46%35.71%18.75%9.38%2.23%4.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.73
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%3.57%—39.29%
13.57%7.14%—7.14%—3.57%21.43%
23.57%3.57%10.71%7.14%——25.00%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4———————
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total14.29%28.57%21.43%21.43%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.61 -0.75
SD 1.11 1.45 1.58
CV 1.30 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
110.71%17.86%3.57%——3.57%35.71%
27.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total32.14%46.43%10.71%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.07 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.15 1.52
CV 1.01 1.08 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%10.71%——46.43%
17.14%7.14%10.71%10.71%——35.71%
2——3.57%3.57%—3.57%10.71%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total14.29%25.00%28.57%25.00%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.71 -1.07
SD 0.87 1.30 1.30
CV 1.35 0.76 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
1—25.00%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%46.43%
23.57%——3.57%——7.14%
33.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total7.14%50.00%28.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.61 -0.39
SD 1.23 1.10 1.79
CV 1.01 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%7.14%———32.14%
110.71%10.71%10.71%—3.57%3.57%39.29%
2—7.14%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
33.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%39.29%28.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.39 -0.29
SD 1.03 1.20 1.49
CV 0.93 0.86 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%————14.29%
110.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
221.43%14.29%——3.57%—39.29%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total53.57%35.71%7.14%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.64 +1.43
SD 1.41 0.91 1.60
CV 0.68 1.42 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%7.14%——3.57%28.57%
110.71%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
27.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total35.71%25.00%21.43%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.18 -0.04
SD 1.18 1.39 1.77
CV 1.03 1.18 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%————10.71%
135.71%14.29%—3.57%——53.57%
210.71%7.14%————17.86%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
Total57.14%35.71%3.57%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.54 +1.11
SD 1.39 0.74 1.34
CV 0.85 1.39 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1607 67 54.65 +12.35 100.0% 43 45 49 55 59 64 66
Zimbru 1566 66 59.39 +6.61 89.0% 48 48 55 59 64 68 73
Constructorul Chisinau 1337 39 42.23 -3.23 33.0% 24 31 38 42 47 53 56
Tiligul 1266 41 39.93 +1.07 56.0% 23 30 36 40 45 49 52
Nistru Otaci 1236 33 37.06 -4.06 32.0% 26 29 32 37 41 47 60
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1217 25 28.60 -3.60 33.0% 14 19 24 28 33 41 44
Agro Chisinau 1167 25 24.52 +0.48 57.0% 11 15 20 25 29 34 37
FC Olimpia Balti 1060 14 23.34 -9.34 4.0% 8 15 19 23 27 32 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Clear Edge
44.64%23.21%32.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 43.66 Elo pts.
200 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.88 * Some Luck: 4.88 to 7.33 * Lucky: 7.33 to 9.77 * Wild Swing: 9.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.58 * Close: 0.58 to 0.86 * Off: 0.86 to 1.15 * Way Off: 1.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.37 points
Some Luck
06.1115
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.721.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
FC Olimpia Balti
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Even
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 190.20
2.72
Strong Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
75%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.15
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.72
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.44
Very Underconfident
0.4284481.001.57155
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol30.00%55.00%12.00%3.00%————
Zimbru67.00%30.00%3.00%—————
Tiligul—5.00%26.00%29.00%31.00%7.00%2.00%—
Constructorul Chisinau2.00%9.00%44.00%23.00%16.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%
Nistru Otaci1.00%1.00%11.00%37.00%29.00%17.00%4.00%—
Agro Chisinau————9.00%21.00%38.00%32.00%
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti——4.00%7.00%11.00%36.00%24.00%18.00%
FC Olimpia Balti———1.00%4.00%15.00%31.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Nistru Otaci 96.00% 4.00% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% — —
Tiligul 98.00% 2.00% —
Zimbru 100% — —
Constructorul Chisinau 98.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 58.00% 24.00% 18.00%
Agro Chisinau 30.00% 38.00% 32.00%
FC Olimpia Balti 20.00% 31.00% 49.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2000-07-22 Agro Chisinau W 3-246.9 1304 1192 57.00% 23.91% 19.09%+0.77 +7.8 3
2000-07-22 @ Nistru Otaci L 2-346.9 1192 1304 19.09% 23.91% 57.00%-0.77 -7.9 0
2000-07-22 FC Olimpia Balti W 2-141.1 1413 1238 62.95% 22.84% 14.20%+1.09 +6.3 3
2000-07-22 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-241.1 1238 1413 14.20% 22.84% 62.95%-1.09 -6.3 0
2000-07-22 Tiligul L 0-148.2 1359 1247 56.99% 23.91% 19.10%+0.77 -21.6 0
2000-07-22 @ Constructorul Chisinau W 1-048.2 1247 1359 19.10% 23.91% 56.99%-0.77 +21.6 3
2000-07-30 Agro Chisinau W 3-139.9 1240 1184 50.80% 24.58% 24.62%+0.50 +17.8 3
2000-07-30 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-339.9 1184 1240 24.62% 24.58% 50.80%-0.50 -17.8 0
2000-07-30 Constructorul Chisinau D 1-158.0 1465 1337 58.58% 23.67% 17.75%+0.85 -3.6 1
2000-07-30 @ Zimbru D 1-158.0 1337 1465 17.75% 23.67% 58.58%-0.85 +3.6 1
2000-07-30 Nistru Otaci D 1-154.6 1231 1312 32.48% 25.01% 42.51%-0.18 +0.8 1
2000-07-30 @ FC Olimpia Balti D 1-154.6 1312 1231 42.51% 25.01% 32.48%+0.18 -0.8 4
2000-07-30 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-051.0 1269 1419 24.04% 24.53% 51.43%-0.53 +2.6 4
2000-07-30 @ Tiligul D 0-051.0 1419 1269 51.43% 24.53% 24.04%+0.53 -2.6 4
2000-08-05 FC Olimpia Balti FW46.9 1167 1232 34.47% 25.05% 40.48%-0.11 +0.0 3
2000-08-05 @ Agro Chisinau FL46.9 1232 1167 40.48% 25.05% 34.47%+0.11 +0.0 1
2000-08-05 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 3-248.4 1341 1258 53.89% 24.29% 21.82%+0.63 +8.8 4
2000-08-05 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 2-348.4 1258 1341 21.82% 24.29% 53.89%-0.63 -8.8 3
2000-08-05 Tiligul D 1-154.9 1311 1271 48.82% 24.73% 26.45%+0.42 -1.9 5
2000-08-05 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-154.9 1271 1311 26.45% 24.73% 48.82%-0.42 +1.9 5
2000-08-11 Agro Chisinau D 2-260.3 1273 1167 56.46% 23.98% 19.56%+0.75 -2.4 6
2000-08-11 @ Tiligul D 2-260.3 1167 1273 19.56% 23.98% 56.46%-0.75 +2.4 4
2000-08-11 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-141.5 1249 1232 45.94% 24.89% 29.17%+0.30 +20.4 6
2000-08-11 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-341.5 1232 1249 29.17% 24.89% 45.94%-0.30 -20.4 1
2000-08-12 Nistru Otaci W 2-143.4 1461 1309 60.91% 23.26% 15.82%+0.98 +7.0 4
2000-08-12 @ Zimbru L 1-243.4 1309 1461 15.82% 23.26% 60.91%-0.98 -7.0 5
2000-08-19 Constructorul Chisinau W 1-043.2 1302 1350 37.03% 25.07% 37.90%-0.02 +15.3 8
2000-08-19 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-143.2 1350 1302 37.90% 25.07% 37.03%+0.02 -15.3 4
2000-08-19 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 4-135.5 1416 1270 60.42% 23.36% 16.23%+0.95 +17.5 7
2000-08-19 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-435.5 1270 1416 16.23% 23.36% 60.42%-0.95 -17.5 6
2000-08-19 Zimbru L 1-336.4 1169 1468 12.02% 22.13% 65.86%-1.27 -9.3 4
2000-08-19 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-136.4 1468 1169 65.86% 22.13% 12.02%+1.27 +9.3 7
2000-08-20 Tiligul W 3-144.7 1212 1271 35.41% 25.06% 39.53%-0.08 +25.8 4
2000-08-20 @ FC Olimpia Balti L 1-344.7 1271 1212 39.53% 25.06% 35.41%+0.08 -25.8 6
2000-08-26 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-028.7 1477 1238 68.08% 21.48% 10.44%+1.41 +13.5 10
2000-08-26 @ Zimbru L 0-328.7 1238 1477 10.44% 21.48% 68.08%-1.41 -13.5 4
2000-08-26 Tiligul L 0-240.5 1252 1245 44.65% 24.94% 30.41%+0.25 -32.8 6
2000-08-26 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-040.5 1245 1252 30.41% 24.94% 44.65%-0.25 +32.8 9
2000-09-05 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-033.9 1491 1219 70.29% 20.73% 8.98%+1.57 +4.2 13
2000-09-05 @ Zimbru L 0-133.9 1219 1491 8.98% 20.73% 70.29%-1.57 -4.2 6
2000-09-09 Constructorul Chisinau L 1-245.4 1224 1334 28.64% 24.86% 46.49%-0.33 -11.6 4
2000-09-09 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 2-145.4 1334 1224 46.49% 24.86% 28.64%+0.33 +11.6 7
2000-09-09 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 3-138.7 1317 1215 56.01% 24.04% 19.95%+0.73 +14.9 11
2000-09-09 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-338.7 1215 1317 19.95% 24.04% 56.01%-0.73 -14.9 6
2000-09-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-230.9 1160 1434 13.52% 22.64% 63.84%-1.15 -12.0 4
2000-09-09 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-030.9 1434 1160 63.84% 22.64% 13.52%+1.15 +12.0 10
2000-09-09 Zimbru D 1-157.4 1278 1495 17.67% 23.66% 58.68%-0.87 +3.6 10
2000-09-09 @ Tiligul D 1-157.4 1495 1278 58.68% 23.66% 17.67%+0.87 -3.6 14
2000-09-13 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-239.1 1346 1446 29.94% 24.92% 45.13%-0.28 -24.1 7
2000-09-13 @ Constructorul Chisinau W 2-039.1 1446 1346 45.13% 24.92% 29.94%+0.28 +24.1 13
2000-09-17 Constructorul Chisinau D 1-154.9 1281 1322 38.03% 25.07% 36.90%+0.02 -0.1 11
2000-09-17 @ Tiligul D 1-154.9 1322 1281 36.90% 25.07% 38.03%-0.02 +0.1 8
2000-09-17 Nistru Otaci D 2-260.4 1148 1332 20.55% 24.13% 55.32%-0.70 +2.2 5
2000-09-17 @ Agro Chisinau D 2-260.4 1332 1148 55.32% 24.13% 20.55%+0.70 -2.2 12
2000-09-17 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-051.4 1212 1470 14.63% 22.96% 62.41%-1.07 +4.8 5
2000-09-17 @ FC Olimpia Balti D 0-051.4 1470 1212 62.41% 22.96% 14.63%+1.07 -4.8 14
2000-09-17 Zimbru D 1-156.6 1200 1491 12.47% 22.29% 65.23%-1.23 +4.8 7
2000-09-17 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-156.6 1491 1200 65.23% 22.29% 12.47%+1.23 -4.8 15
2000-09-23 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-247.1 1330 1217 57.12% 23.89% 18.99%+0.78 +7.8 15
2000-09-23 @ Nistru Otaci L 2-347.1 1217 1330 18.99% 23.89% 57.12%-0.78 -7.8 5
2000-09-23 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-148.1 1150 1205 35.93% 25.07% 39.00%-0.06 +14.7 8
2000-09-23 @ Agro Chisinau L 1-248.1 1205 1150 39.00% 25.07% 35.93%+0.06 -14.7 7
2000-09-23 Tiligul L 2-457.0 1465 1281 63.72% 22.67% 13.61%+1.13 -34.9 14
2000-09-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 4-257.0 1281 1465 13.61% 22.67% 63.72%-1.13 +34.9 14
2000-09-27 Nistru Otaci W 4-138.4 1430 1338 54.94% 24.17% 20.88%+0.68 +21.9 17
2000-09-27 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-438.4 1338 1430 20.88% 24.17% 54.94%-0.68 -21.9 15
2000-09-27 Zimbru L 0-140.9 1322 1487 22.52% 24.37% 53.11%-0.60 -10.1 8
2000-09-27 @ Constructorul Chisinau W 1-040.9 1487 1322 53.11% 24.37% 22.52%+0.60 +10.1 18
2000-10-01 Agro Chisinau L 1-347.3 1209 1165 49.45% 24.69% 25.87%+0.44 -31.0 5
2000-10-01 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 3-147.3 1165 1209 25.87% 24.69% 49.45%-0.44 +31.0 11
2000-10-01 Constructorul Chisinau L 0-139.0 1190 1312 27.28% 24.78% 47.93%-0.39 -11.9 7
2000-10-01 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-039.0 1312 1190 47.93% 24.78% 27.28%+0.39 +11.9 11
2000-10-01 Nistru Otaci D 0-050.3 1316 1316 43.70% 24.98% 31.32%+0.22 -1.1 15
2000-10-01 @ Tiligul D 0-050.3 1316 1316 31.32% 24.98% 43.70%-0.22 +1.1 16
2000-10-01 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-046.2 1497 1452 49.44% 24.69% 25.88%+0.44 +11.4 21
2000-10-01 @ Zimbru L 0-146.2 1452 1497 25.88% 24.69% 49.44%-0.44 -11.4 17
2000-10-15 Tiligul FL47.3 1196 1315 27.53% 24.80% 47.67%-0.38 +0.0 11
2000-10-15 @ Agro Chisinau FW47.3 1315 1196 47.67% 24.80% 27.53%+0.38 +0.0 18
2000-10-15 Constructorul Chisinau D 0-052.4 1441 1324 57.54% 23.83% 18.63%+0.80 -3.8 18
2000-10-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-052.4 1324 1441 18.63% 23.83% 57.54%-0.80 +3.8 12
2000-10-15 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 0-239.9 1178 1178 43.67% 24.98% 31.36%+0.22 -32.2 5
2000-10-15 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 2-039.9 1178 1178 31.36% 24.98% 43.67%-0.22 +32.2 10
2000-10-15 Zimbru L 0-236.6 1317 1508 19.96% 24.04% 56.00%-0.74 -17.2 16
2000-10-15 @ Nistru Otaci W 2-036.6 1508 1317 56.00% 24.04% 19.96%+0.74 +17.2 24
2000-10-21 Agro Chisinau W 5-130.4 1525 1196 73.94% 19.26% 6.81%+1.86 +9.4 27
2000-10-21 @ Zimbru L 1-530.4 1196 1525 6.81% 19.26% 73.94%-1.86 -9.4 11
2000-10-21 FC Olimpia Balti W 2-140.3 1315 1146 62.44% 22.95% 14.61%+1.06 +6.5 21
2000-10-21 @ Tiligul L 1-240.3 1146 1315 14.61% 22.95% 62.44%-1.06 -6.5 5
2000-10-21 Nistru Otaci W 2-145.6 1328 1300 47.30% 24.82% 27.88%+0.36 +11.4 15
2000-10-21 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 1-245.6 1300 1328 27.88% 24.82% 47.30%-0.36 -11.4 16
2000-10-21 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-232.6 1211 1437 16.95% 23.51% 59.54%-0.91 -14.9 10
2000-10-21 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-032.6 1437 1211 59.54% 23.51% 16.95%+0.91 +14.9 21
2000-10-29 Constructorul Chisinau D 1-154.7 1186 1339 23.77% 24.51% 51.72%-0.54 +2.4 12
2000-10-29 @ Agro Chisinau D 1-154.7 1339 1186 51.72% 24.51% 23.77%+0.54 -2.4 16
2000-10-29 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-032.1 1322 1196 58.41% 23.70% 17.89%+0.84 +15.6 24
2000-10-29 @ Tiligul L 0-232.1 1196 1322 17.89% 23.70% 58.41%-0.84 -15.6 10
2000-10-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-245.3 1289 1452 22.66% 24.39% 52.95%-0.60 -9.6 16
2000-10-29 @ Nistru Otaci W 2-145.3 1452 1289 52.95% 24.39% 22.66%+0.60 +9.6 24
2000-10-29 Zimbru L 0-132.8 1140 1535 7.62% 19.87% 72.52%-1.75 -3.6 5
2000-10-29 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 1-032.8 1535 1140 72.52% 19.87% 7.62%+1.75 +3.5 30
2000-11-04 Agro Chisinau W 1-033.2 1461 1189 70.38% 20.69% 8.92%+1.58 +4.2 27
2000-11-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-133.2 1189 1461 8.92% 20.69% 70.38%-1.58 -4.2 12
2000-11-04 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-135.7 1337 1136 65.08% 22.33% 12.58%+1.22 +9.7 19
2000-11-04 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 1-335.7 1136 1337 12.58% 22.33% 65.08%-1.22 -9.7 5
2000-11-04 Nistru Otaci L 1-245.5 1180 1279 30.09% 24.93% 44.98%-0.27 -12.1 10
2000-11-04 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-145.5 1279 1180 44.98% 24.93% 30.09%+0.27 +12.1 19
2000-11-04 Tiligul W 1-039.0 1538 1337 65.14% 22.32% 12.54%+1.22 +5.9 33
2000-11-04 @ Zimbru L 0-139.0 1337 1538 12.54% 22.32% 65.14%-1.22 -5.9 24
2000-11-12 Agro Chisinau W 1-035.0 1346 1184 61.82% 23.08% 15.10%+1.03 +7.1 22
2000-11-12 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 0-135.0 1184 1346 15.10% 23.08% 61.82%-1.03 -7.1 12
2000-11-12 Zimbru L 1-256.4 1466 1544 32.71% 25.02% 42.28%-0.17 -12.9 27
2000-11-12 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-156.4 1544 1466 42.28% 25.02% 32.71%+0.17 +12.9 36
2001-03-10 FC Olimpia Balti W 1-031.6 1453 1126 73.73% 19.35% 6.92%+1.85 +3.2 30
2001-03-10 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-131.6 1126 1453 6.92% 19.35% 73.73%-1.85 -3.2 5
2001-03-10 Nistru Otaci L 0-139.2 1177 1291 28.22% 24.84% 46.94%-0.35 -12.2 12
2001-03-10 @ Agro Chisinau W 1-039.2 1291 1177 46.94% 24.84% 28.22%+0.35 +12.2 22
2001-03-10 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-032.0 1557 1168 77.19% 17.68% 5.13%+2.16 +2.3 39
2001-03-10 @ Zimbru L 0-132.0 1168 1557 5.13% 17.68% 77.19%-2.16 -2.3 10
2001-03-10 Tiligul L 0-146.1 1353 1331 46.59% 24.86% 28.55%+0.33 -18.0 22
2001-03-10 @ Constructorul Chisinau W 1-046.1 1331 1353 28.55% 24.86% 46.59%-0.33 +18.0 27
2001-03-18 Agro Chisinau D 1-154.1 1166 1165 43.77% 24.97% 31.25%+0.22 -1.0 11
2001-03-18 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-154.1 1165 1166 31.25% 24.97% 43.77%-0.22 +1.0 13
2001-03-18 Constructorul Chisinau D 0-056.3 1559 1335 66.93% 21.82% 11.24%+1.34 -5.7 40
2001-03-18 @ Zimbru D 0-056.3 1335 1559 11.24% 21.82% 66.93%-1.34 +5.7 23
2001-03-18 Nistru Otaci W 1-046.9 1123 1303 21.00% 24.19% 54.81%-0.68 +20.8 8
2001-03-18 @ FC Olimpia Balti L 0-146.9 1303 1123 54.81% 24.19% 21.00%+0.68 -20.8 22
2001-03-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-248.6 1349 1456 29.09% 24.89% 46.02%-0.31 -11.8 27
2001-03-18 @ Tiligul W 2-148.6 1456 1349 46.02% 24.89% 29.09%+0.31 +11.8 33
2001-04-01 FC Olimpia Balti D 2-259.9 1166 1144 46.59% 24.86% 28.55%+0.33 -1.1 14
2001-04-01 @ Agro Chisinau D 2-259.9 1144 1166 28.55% 24.86% 46.59%-0.33 +1.1 9
2001-04-01 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-155.1 1341 1165 63.07% 22.82% 14.11%+1.10 -4.4 24
2001-04-01 @ Constructorul Chisinau D 1-155.1 1165 1341 14.11% 22.82% 63.07%-1.10 +4.4 12
2001-04-01 Tiligul L 0-142.3 1282 1338 35.94% 25.07% 38.99%-0.06 -14.7 22
2001-04-01 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-042.3 1338 1282 38.99% 25.07% 35.94%+0.06 +14.7 30
2001-04-01 Zimbru W 1-054.2 1468 1554 31.72% 24.99% 43.29%-0.21 +17.0 36
2001-04-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-154.2 1554 1468 43.29% 24.99% 31.72%+0.21 -17.0 40
2001-04-08 Agro Chisinau W 3-028.3 1352 1165 64.01% 22.60% 13.39%+1.15 +17.3 33
2001-04-08 @ Tiligul L 0-328.3 1165 1352 13.39% 22.60% 64.01%-1.15 -17.3 14
2001-04-08 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-033.1 1169 1145 46.85% 24.84% 28.31%+0.34 +33.5 15
2001-04-08 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 0-333.1 1145 1169 28.31% 24.84% 46.85%-0.34 -33.4 9
2001-04-08 Nistru Otaci W 1-035.7 1537 1268 70.13% 20.78% 9.08%+1.56 +4.3 43
2001-04-08 @ Zimbru L 0-135.7 1268 1537 9.08% 20.78% 70.13%-1.56 -4.3 22
2001-04-08 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-158.2 1337 1485 24.27% 24.55% 51.18%-0.52 +2.3 25
2001-04-08 @ Constructorul Chisinau D 1-158.2 1485 1337 51.18% 24.55% 24.27%+0.52 -2.3 37
2001-04-14 Constructorul Chisinau W 2-149.7 1263 1339 33.14% 25.03% 41.83%-0.16 +15.6 25
2001-04-14 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-249.7 1339 1263 41.83% 25.03% 33.14%+0.16 -15.6 25
2001-04-14 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-139.1 1482 1203 70.84% 20.53% 8.63%+1.61 +3.8 40
2001-04-14 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-239.1 1203 1482 8.63% 20.53% 70.84%-1.61 -3.8 15
2001-04-14 Tiligul W 1-049.0 1112 1370 14.60% 22.95% 62.44%-1.07 +23.5 12
2001-04-14 @ FC Olimpia Balti L 0-149.0 1370 1112 62.44% 22.95% 14.60%+1.07 -23.5 33
2001-04-14 Zimbru D 0-052.4 1148 1541 7.68% 19.91% 72.42%-1.74 +6.7 15
2001-04-14 @ Agro Chisinau D 0-052.4 1541 1148 72.42% 19.91% 7.68%+1.74 -6.7 44
2001-04-21 Agro Chisinau D 0-050.1 1323 1154 62.44% 22.95% 14.60%+1.06 -4.8 26
2001-04-21 @ Constructorul Chisinau D 0-050.1 1154 1323 14.60% 22.95% 62.44%-1.06 +4.8 16
2001-04-21 FC Olimpia Balti W 1-031.2 1534 1135 77.71% 17.41% 4.88%+2.21 +2.2 47
2001-04-21 @ Zimbru L 0-131.2 1135 1534 4.88% 17.41% 77.71%-2.21 -2.2 12
2001-04-21 Nistru Otaci W 2-032.4 1486 1279 65.63% 22.19% 12.18%+1.25 +10.9 43
2001-04-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-232.4 1279 1486 12.18% 22.19% 65.63%-1.25 -10.9 25
2001-04-21 Tiligul D 1-154.7 1199 1346 24.36% 24.56% 51.08%-0.52 +2.2 16
2001-04-21 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-154.7 1346 1199 51.08% 24.56% 24.36%+0.52 -2.3 34
2001-04-28 Constructorul Chisinau D 0-049.7 1133 1318 20.47% 24.12% 55.41%-0.71 +3.4 13
2001-04-28 @ FC Olimpia Balti D 0-049.7 1318 1133 55.41% 24.12% 20.47%+0.71 -3.4 27
2001-04-28 Nistru Otaci W 5-140.5 1201 1268 34.28% 25.05% 40.67%-0.12 +48.2 19
2001-04-28 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-540.5 1268 1201 40.67% 25.05% 34.28%+0.12 -48.2 25
2001-04-28 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-427.5 1159 1497 9.99% 21.26% 68.75%-1.47 -16.9 16
2001-04-28 @ Agro Chisinau W 4-027.5 1497 1159 68.75% 21.26% 9.99%+1.47 +16.9 46
2001-04-28 Zimbru L 0-238.1 1344 1537 19.80% 24.02% 56.18%-0.74 -17.1 34
2001-04-28 @ Tiligul W 2-038.1 1537 1344 56.18% 24.02% 19.80%+0.74 +17.1 50
2001-05-06 Agro Chisinau W 3-031.2 1220 1142 53.33% 24.35% 22.32%+0.61 +27.5 28
2001-05-06 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-331.2 1142 1220 22.32% 24.35% 53.33%-0.61 -27.5 16
2001-05-06 Constructorul Chisinau L 1-444.2 1327 1315 45.22% 24.92% 29.86%+0.28 -40.6 34
2001-05-06 @ Tiligul W 4-144.2 1315 1327 29.86% 24.92% 45.22%-0.28 +40.6 30
2001-05-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-229.1 1136 1514 8.27% 20.30% 71.43%-1.67 -7.3 13
2001-05-06 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 2-029.1 1514 1136 71.43% 20.30% 8.27%+1.67 +7.3 49
2001-05-06 Zimbru D 1-158.6 1249 1554 11.71% 22.01% 66.28%-1.30 +5.0 20
2001-05-06 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-158.6 1554 1249 66.28% 22.01% 11.71%+1.30 -5.0 51
2001-05-09 FC Olimpia Balti W 1-035.8 1247 1129 57.69% 23.81% 18.51%+0.81 +8.5 31
2001-05-09 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-135.8 1129 1247 18.51% 23.81% 57.69%-0.81 -8.5 13
2001-05-09 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-045.6 1115 1254 25.22% 24.63% 50.15%-0.48 +19.2 19
2001-05-09 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-145.6 1254 1115 50.15% 24.63% 25.22%+0.48 -19.2 20
2001-05-09 Tiligul W 5-030.9 1521 1286 67.76% 21.58% 10.67%+1.39 +22.3 52
2001-05-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-530.9 1286 1521 10.67% 21.58% 67.76%-1.39 -22.3 34
2001-05-09 Zimbru L 1-540.1 1356 1549 19.78% 24.02% 56.20%-0.74 -27.0 30
2001-05-09 @ Constructorul Chisinau W 5-140.1 1549 1356 56.20% 24.02% 19.78%+0.74 +27.0 54
2001-05-13 Agro Chisinau L 0-239.3 1120 1134 41.83% 25.03% 33.14%+0.15 -31.1 13
2001-05-13 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 2-039.3 1134 1120 33.14% 25.03% 41.83%-0.15 +31.1 22
2001-05-13 Constructorul Chisinau L 0-236.6 1235 1329 30.72% 24.96% 44.32%-0.25 -24.6 20
2001-05-13 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-036.6 1329 1235 44.32% 24.96% 30.72%+0.25 +24.6 33
2001-05-13 Nistru Otaci D 0-049.6 1264 1256 44.72% 24.94% 30.34%+0.26 -1.3 35
2001-05-13 @ Tiligul D 0-049.6 1256 1264 30.34% 24.94% 44.72%-0.26 +1.3 32
2001-05-13 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-360.9 1576 1544 47.86% 24.79% 27.35%+0.38 -30.1 54
2001-05-13 @ Zimbru W 3-160.9 1544 1576 27.35% 24.79% 47.86%-0.38 +30.1 55
2001-05-18 Constructorul Chisinau W 3-034.3 1574 1353 66.65% 21.91% 11.44%+1.32 +14.8 58
2001-05-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-334.3 1353 1574 11.44% 21.91% 66.65%-1.32 -14.8 33
2001-05-18 Zimbru L 0-137.2 1257 1546 12.65% 22.35% 65.00%-1.22 -6.0 32
2001-05-18 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-037.2 1546 1257 65.00% 22.35% 12.65%+1.22 +6.0 57
2001-05-19 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-154.1 1089 1210 27.34% 24.79% 47.88%-0.39 +1.7 14
2001-05-19 @ FC Olimpia Balti D 1-154.1 1210 1089 47.88% 24.79% 27.34%+0.39 -1.7 21
2001-05-19 Tiligul L 2-350.4 1165 1263 30.25% 24.94% 44.81%-0.27 -11.5 22
2001-05-19 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-250.4 1263 1165 44.81% 24.94% 30.25%+0.27 +11.5 38
2001-05-27 Agro Chisinau W 1-031.6 1552 1154 77.64% 17.44% 4.91%+2.20 +2.2 60
2001-05-27 @ Zimbru L 0-131.6 1154 1552 4.91% 17.44% 77.64%-2.20 -2.2 22
2001-05-27 FC Olimpia Balti W 3-028.1 1274 1091 63.65% 22.68% 13.66%+1.13 +17.7 41
2001-05-27 @ Tiligul L 0-328.1 1091 1274 13.66% 22.68% 63.65%-1.13 -17.7 14
2001-05-27 Nistru Otaci W 1-037.5 1338 1251 54.38% 24.24% 21.38%+0.65 +9.7 36
2001-05-27 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 0-137.5 1251 1338 21.38% 24.24% 54.38%-0.65 -9.7 32
2001-05-27 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-532.5 1209 1589 8.19% 20.25% 71.57%-1.68 -11.5 21
2001-05-27 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 5-132.5 1589 1209 71.57% 20.25% 8.19%+1.68 +11.5 61
2001-06-09 Constructorul Chisinau W 3-258.2 1151 1348 19.44% 23.96% 56.60%-0.76 +19.2 25
2001-06-09 @ Agro Chisinau L 2-358.2 1348 1151 56.60% 23.96% 19.44%+0.76 -19.2 36
2001-06-09 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 2-357.8 1292 1197 55.17% 24.15% 20.68%+0.69 -18.7 41
2001-06-09 @ Tiligul W 3-257.8 1197 1292 20.68% 24.15% 55.17%-0.69 +18.7 24
2001-06-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-347.2 1242 1600 9.06% 20.77% 70.16%-1.57 -3.8 32
2001-06-09 @ Nistru Otaci W 3-247.2 1600 1242 70.16% 20.77% 9.06%+1.57 +3.8 64
2001-06-09 Zimbru L 2-532.3 1073 1554 5.07% 17.62% 77.31%-2.18 -4.6 14
2001-06-09 @ FC Olimpia Balti W 5-232.3 1554 1073 77.31% 17.62% 5.07%+2.18 +4.6 63
2001-06-12 Agro Chisinau W 2-028.4 1604 1171 79.37% 16.48% 4.14%+2.38 +3.4 67
2001-06-12 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-228.4 1171 1604 4.14% 16.48% 79.37%-2.38 -3.4 25
2001-06-12 FC Olimpia Balti W 2-028.5 1329 1069 69.53% 21.00% 9.47%+1.52 +8.4 39
2001-06-12 @ Constructorul Chisinau L 0-228.5 1069 1329 9.47% 21.00% 69.53%-1.52 -8.4 14
2001-06-12 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-154.3 1238 1216 46.55% 24.86% 28.59%+0.33 -1.5 33
2001-06-12 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-154.3 1216 1238 28.59% 24.86% 46.55%-0.33 +1.5 25
2001-06-12 Tiligul W 2-032.2 1558 1273 71.21% 20.39% 8.41%+1.64 +7.5 66
2001-06-12 @ Zimbru L 0-232.2 1273 1558 8.41% 20.39% 71.21%-1.64 -7.5 41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-09-23 13.61% Tiligul 1281 4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1465 2
2 2001-04-14 14.60% @ FC Olimpia Balti 1112 1 Tiligul 1370 0
3 2000-07-22 19.10% Tiligul 1247 1 @ Constructorul Chisinau 1359 0
4 2001-06-09 19.44% @ Agro Chisinau 1151 3 Constructorul Chisinau 1348 2
5 2001-06-09 20.68% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1197 3 @ Tiligul 1292 2
6 2001-03-18 21.00% @ FC Olimpia Balti 1123 1 Nistru Otaci 1303 0
7 2001-05-09 25.22% @ Agro Chisinau 1115 1 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1254 0
8 2000-10-01 25.87% Agro Chisinau 1165 3 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1209 1
9 2001-05-13 27.35% Sheriff Tiraspol 1544 3 @ Zimbru 1576 1
10 2001-03-10 28.55% Tiligul 1331 1 @ Constructorul Chisinau 1353 0
11 2001-05-06 29.86% Constructorul Chisinau 1315 4 @ Tiligul 1327 1
12 2000-08-26 30.41% Tiligul 1245 2 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1252 0
13 2000-10-15 31.36% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1178 2 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1178 0
14 2001-04-01 31.72% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1468 1 Zimbru 1554 0
15 2001-04-14 33.14% @ Nistru Otaci 1263 2 Constructorul Chisinau 1339 1
16 2001-05-13 33.14% Agro Chisinau 1134 2 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1120 0
17 2001-04-28 34.28% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1201 5 Nistru Otaci 1268 1
18 2000-08-20 35.41% @ FC Olimpia Balti 1212 3 Tiligul 1271 1
19 2000-09-23 35.93% @ Agro Chisinau 1150 2 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1205 1
20 2000-08-19 37.03% @ Nistru Otaci 1302 1 Constructorul Chisinau 1350 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-04-28 48.16 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 5 1201 34.28% Nistru Otaci 1 1268 40.67% 25.05%
2 2001-05-06 40.64 Constructorul Chisinau 4 1315 29.86% @ Tiligul 1 1327 45.22% 24.92%
3 2000-09-23 34.93 Tiligul 4 1281 13.61% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1465 63.72% 22.67%
4 2001-04-08 33.45 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1169 46.85% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1145 28.31% 24.84%
5 2000-08-26 32.84 Tiligul 2 1245 30.41% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1252 44.65% 24.94%
6 2000-10-15 32.24 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 2 1178 31.36% @ FC Olimpia Balti 0 1178 43.67% 24.98%
7 2001-05-13 31.14 Agro Chisinau 2 1134 33.14% @ FC Olimpia Balti 0 1120 41.83% 25.03%
8 2000-10-01 31.00 Agro Chisinau 3 1165 25.87% @ FC Olimpia Balti 1 1209 49.45% 24.69%
9 2001-05-13 30.14 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1544 27.35% @ Zimbru 1 1576 47.86% 24.79%
10 2001-05-06 27.50 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1220 53.33% Agro Chisinau 0 1142 22.32% 24.35%
11 2001-05-09 26.99 Zimbru 5 1549 56.20% @ Constructorul Chisinau 1 1356 19.78% 24.02%
12 2000-08-20 25.81 @ FC Olimpia Balti 3 1212 35.41% Tiligul 1 1271 39.53% 25.06%
13 2001-05-13 24.57 Constructorul Chisinau 2 1329 44.32% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1235 30.72% 24.96%
14 2000-09-13 24.08 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1446 45.13% @ Constructorul Chisinau 0 1346 29.94% 24.92%
15 2001-04-14 23.47 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1 1112 14.60% Tiligul 0 1370 62.44% 22.95%
16 2001-05-09 22.28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1521 67.76% Tiligul 0 1286 10.67% 21.58%
17 2000-09-27 21.92 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1430 54.94% Nistru Otaci 1 1338 20.88% 24.17%
18 2000-07-22 21.56 Tiligul 1 1247 19.10% @ Constructorul Chisinau 0 1359 56.99% 23.91%
19 2001-03-18 20.80 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1 1123 21.00% Nistru Otaci 0 1303 54.81% 24.19%
20 2000-08-11 20.43 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1249 45.94% FC Olimpia Balti 1 1232 29.17% 24.89%
21 2001-05-09 19.22 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1115 25.22% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1254 50.15% 24.63%
22 2001-06-09 19.16 @ Agro Chisinau 3 1151 19.44% Constructorul Chisinau 2 1348 56.60% 23.96%
23 2001-06-09 18.72 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1197 20.68% @ Tiligul 2 1292 55.17% 24.15%
24 2001-03-10 18.04 Tiligul 1 1331 28.55% @ Constructorul Chisinau 0 1353 46.59% 24.86%
25 2000-07-30 17.81 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1240 50.80% Agro Chisinau 1 1184 24.62% 24.58%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-05-13 60.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1544 27.35% @ Zimbru 1 1576 47.86% 24.79%
2 2000-09-17 60.4 @ Agro Chisinau 2 1148 20.55% Nistru Otaci 2 1332 55.32% 24.13%
3 2000-08-11 60.3 @ Tiligul 2 1273 56.46% Agro Chisinau 2 1167 19.56% 23.98%
4 2001-04-01 59.9 @ Agro Chisinau 2 1166 46.59% FC Olimpia Balti 2 1144 28.55% 24.86%
5 2001-05-06 58.6 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1249 11.71% Zimbru 1 1554 66.28% 22.01%
6 2001-04-08 58.2 @ Constructorul Chisinau 1 1337 24.27% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1485 51.18% 24.55%
7 2001-06-09 58.2 @ Agro Chisinau 3 1151 19.44% Constructorul Chisinau 2 1348 56.60% 23.96%
8 2000-07-30 58.0 @ Zimbru 1 1465 58.58% Constructorul Chisinau 1 1337 17.75% 23.67%
9 2001-06-09 57.8 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1197 20.68% @ Tiligul 2 1292 55.17% 24.15%
10 2000-09-09 57.4 @ Tiligul 1 1278 17.67% Zimbru 1 1495 58.68% 23.66%
11 2000-09-23 57.0 Tiligul 4 1281 13.61% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1465 63.72% 22.67%
12 2000-09-17 56.6 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1200 12.47% Zimbru 1 1491 65.23% 22.29%
13 2000-11-12 56.4 Zimbru 2 1544 42.28% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1466 32.71% 25.02%
14 2001-03-18 56.3 @ Zimbru 0 1559 66.93% Constructorul Chisinau 0 1335 11.24% 21.82%
15 2001-04-01 55.1 @ Constructorul Chisinau 1 1341 63.07% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1165 14.11% 22.82%
16 2000-08-05 54.9 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1311 48.82% Tiligul 1 1271 26.45% 24.73%
17 2000-09-17 54.9 @ Tiligul 1 1281 38.03% Constructorul Chisinau 1 1322 36.90% 25.07%
18 2000-10-29 54.7 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1186 23.77% Constructorul Chisinau 1 1339 51.72% 24.51%
19 2001-04-21 54.7 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1199 24.36% Tiligul 1 1346 51.08% 24.56%
20 2000-07-30 54.6 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1 1231 32.48% Nistru Otaci 1 1312 42.51% 25.01%
21 2001-06-12 54.3 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1238 46.55% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1216 28.59% 24.86%
22 2001-04-01 54.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1468 31.72% Zimbru 0 1554 43.29% 24.99%
23 2001-03-18 54.1 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1166 43.77% Agro Chisinau 1 1165 31.25% 24.97%
24 2001-05-19 54.1 @ FC Olimpia Balti 1 1089 27.34% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1210 47.88% 24.79%
25 2000-10-15 52.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1441 57.54% Constructorul Chisinau 0 1324 18.63% 23.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-04-28 27.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1497 68.75% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1159 9.99% 21.26%
2 2001-05-27 28.1 @ Tiligul 3 1274 63.65% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1091 13.66% 22.68%
3 2001-04-08 28.3 @ Tiligul 3 1352 64.01% Agro Chisinau 0 1165 13.39% 22.60%
4 2001-06-12 28.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1604 79.37% Agro Chisinau 0 1171 4.14% 16.48%
5 2001-06-12 28.5 @ Constructorul Chisinau 2 1329 69.53% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1069 9.47% 21.00%
6 2000-08-26 28.7 @ Zimbru 3 1477 68.08% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1238 10.44% 21.48%
7 2001-05-06 29.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1514 71.43% @ FC Olimpia Balti 0 1136 8.27% 20.30%
8 2000-10-21 30.4 @ Zimbru 5 1525 73.94% Agro Chisinau 1 1196 6.81% 19.26%
9 2000-09-09 30.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1434 63.84% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1160 13.52% 22.64%
10 2001-05-09 30.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1521 67.76% Tiligul 0 1286 10.67% 21.58%
11 2001-04-21 31.2 @ Zimbru 1 1534 77.71% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1135 4.88% 17.41%
12 2001-05-06 31.2 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1220 53.33% Agro Chisinau 0 1142 22.32% 24.35%
13 2001-03-10 31.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1453 73.73% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1126 6.92% 19.35%
14 2001-05-27 31.6 @ Zimbru 1 1552 77.64% Agro Chisinau 0 1154 4.91% 17.44%
15 2001-03-10 32.0 @ Zimbru 1 1557 77.19% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1168 5.13% 17.68%
16 2000-10-29 32.1 @ Tiligul 2 1322 58.41% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1196 17.89% 23.70%
17 2001-06-12 32.2 @ Zimbru 2 1558 71.21% Tiligul 0 1273 8.41% 20.39%
18 2001-06-09 32.3 Zimbru 5 1554 77.31% @ FC Olimpia Balti 2 1073 5.07% 17.62%
19 2001-04-21 32.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1486 65.63% Nistru Otaci 0 1279 12.18% 22.19%
20 2001-05-27 32.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1589 71.57% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1209 8.19% 20.25%
21 2000-10-21 32.6 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1437 59.54% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1211 16.95% 23.51%
22 2000-10-29 32.8 Zimbru 1 1535 72.52% @ FC Olimpia Balti 0 1140 7.62% 19.87%
23 2001-04-08 33.1 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1169 46.85% FC Olimpia Balti 0 1145 28.31% 24.84%
24 2000-11-04 33.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1461 70.38% Agro Chisinau 0 1189 8.92% 20.69%
25 2000-09-05 33.9 @ Zimbru 1 1491 70.29% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1219 8.98% 20.73%