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2001-02 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

67 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Nistru Otaci

11.04 points above expected

52 points · 40.96 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Happy End Camenca

14.14 points below expected

15 points · 29.14 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 20 7 1 67 62 18 +44 60.95 +6.05
2 Nistru Otaci 28 14 10 4 52 40 19 +21 40.96 +11.04
3 Zimbru 28 12 10 6 46 52 20 +32 55.35 -9.35
4 Cioburciu 28 11 6 11 39 36 42 -6 33.76 +5.24
5 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 28 7 11 10 32 30 40 -10 29.78 +2.22
6 Agro Chisinau 28 8 5 15 29 25 38 -13 25.07 +3.93
7 Tiligul 28 6 7 15 25 24 46 -22 31.55 -6.55
8 Happy End Camenca 28 3 6 19 15 23 69 -46 29.14 -14.14

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Nistru Otaci 52 40.96 +11.04
2 Sheriff Tiraspol 67 60.95 +6.05
3 Cioburciu 39 33.76 +5.24
4 Agro Chisinau 29 25.07 +3.93
5 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 32 29.78 +2.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Happy End Camenca 15 29.14 -14.14
2 Zimbru 46 55.35 -9.35
3 Tiligul 25 31.55 -6.55
4 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 32 29.78 +2.22
5 Agro Chisinau 29 25.07 +3.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cioburciu 3 Apr 28 – May 11 1 in 68
2 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 Sep 23 – Oct 14 1 in 49
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 Aug 4 – Sep 9 1 in 19
4 Zimbru 5 Nov 7 – Mar 30 1 in 8
5 Agro Chisinau 2 Jun 5 – Jun 9 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Happy End Camenca 13 Mar 17 – Jun 9 1 in 6,983
2 Zimbru 3 Apr 28 – May 11 1 in 335
3 Cioburciu 5 Sep 23 – Oct 28 1 in 135
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 May 26 – May 26 1 in 13
5 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 Aug 25 – Sep 14 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nistru Otaci 8 Aug 4 – Oct 14 1 in 67
2 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 6 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 54
3 Cioburciu 5 May 26 – Jun 15 1 in 24
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 23 Aug 4 – May 17 1 in 21
5 Agro Chisinau 3 Aug 25 – Sep 14 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Happy End Camenca 15 Nov 3 – Jun 9 1 in 61
2 Cioburciu 8 Aug 27 – Oct 28 1 in 33
3 Zimbru 4 Aug 3 – Sep 14 1 in 26
4 Tiligul 10 Oct 28 – Apr 28 1 in 19
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 Sep 14 – Sep 23 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1628 67 -36 8 11.5 -3.5
Nistru Otaci 1433 52 +47 11 8.9 +2.1
Zimbru 1492 46 -41 5 8.8 -3.8
Cioburciu 1339 39 +59 11 5.6 +5.4
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1281 32 +7 5 5.3 -0.3
Agro Chisinau 1231 29 +24 7 5.3 +1.7
Tiligul 1183 25 -47 4 5.9 -1.9
Happy End Camenca 1106 15 -12 3 3.5 -0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC CIO HH HEC NO ST TIL ZIM
Agro Chisinau —
1-0-3
4.14
2-1-1
4.34
2-1-1
4.78
0-1-3
3.45
0-1-3
1.40
2-1-1
4.18
1-0-3
1.93
Cioburciu
3-0-1
6.71
 —
0-2-2
6.05
3-0-1
5.66
0-2-2
4.39
1-0-3
2.03
3-0-1
5.73
1-2-1
2.63
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti
1-1-2
6.52
2-2-0
4.79
 —
3-1-0
5.59
0-1-3
3.65
0-2-2
1.89
1-2-1
4.86
0-2-2
2.48
Happy End Camenca
1-1-2
6.08
1-0-3
5.21
0-1-3
5.25
 —
0-0-4
3.78
0-0-4
1.85
1-2-1
4.71
0-2-2
2.40
Nistru Otaci
3-1-0
7.48
2-2-0
6.51
3-1-0
7.23
4-0-0
7.17
 —
0-2-2
2.57
1-2-1
6.96
1-2-1
3.19
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-1-0
9.88
3-0-1
9.12
2-2-0
9.25
4-0-0
9.34
2-2-0
8.44
 —
4-0-0
9.09
2-2-0
6.58
Tiligul
1-1-2
6.68
1-0-3
5.10
1-2-1
5.98
1-2-1
6.13
1-2-1
3.92
0-0-4
2.03
 —
1-0-3
2.19
Zimbru
3-0-1
9.21
1-2-1
8.42
2-2-0
8.54
2-2-0
8.66
1-2-1
7.74
0-2-2
4.27
3-0-1
8.89
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.8
Allowed 0.81 -8.6
Differential 0.92 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%9.38%5.36%4.46%1.34%3.12%34.38%
19.38%11.61%6.70%2.23%0.45%0.89%31.25%
25.36%6.70%4.46%0.89%0.89%0.45%18.75%
34.46%2.23%0.89%0.89%——8.48%
41.34%0.45%0.89%———2.68%
5+3.12%0.89%0.45%———4.46%
Total34.38%31.25%18.75%8.48%2.68%4.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 2.27
CV 1.12 1.12 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%10.71%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
114.29%3.57%14.29%3.57%——35.71%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
3———————
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total28.57%25.00%32.14%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.36 -0.46
SD 1.10 1.13 1.53
CV 1.23 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%—25.00%
125.00%7.14%10.71%——3.57%46.43%
2—3.57%10.71%———14.29%
33.57%——3.57%——7.14%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%17.86%28.57%14.29%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.50 -0.21
SD 1.24 1.37 2.04
CV 0.97 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%10.71%10.71%——7.14%46.43%
1—17.86%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
2—10.71%————10.71%
33.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total21.43%50.00%14.29%3.57%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.43 -0.36
SD 1.33 1.48 2.09
CV 1.24 1.03 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%39.29%
13.57%17.86%14.29%7.14%—3.57%46.43%
2——3.57%—3.57%—7.14%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%28.57%21.43%17.86%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.46 -1.64
SD 0.86 2.15 2.63
CV 1.05 0.87 —
Max 3 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%3.57%3.57%3.57%——32.14%
17.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
217.86%10.71%3.57%———32.14%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total53.57%28.57%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.68 +0.75
SD 1.43 0.86 1.69
CV 1.00 1.27 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
114.29%7.14%————21.43%
27.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%—25.00%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total57.14%28.57%10.71%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.64 +1.57
SD 1.60 0.95 1.79
CV 0.72 1.48 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%3.57%7.14%—7.14%42.86%
17.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
2—7.14%3.57%——3.57%14.29%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%39.29%14.29%14.29%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.64 -0.79
SD 0.93 1.52 1.93
CV 1.09 0.93 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%7.14%———32.14%
13.57%14.29%————17.86%
214.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
33.57%—————3.57%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+10.71%—————10.71%
Total50.00%32.14%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.71 +1.14
SD 2.21 0.85 2.56
CV 1.19 1.20 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1628 67 60.95 +6.05 88.0% 44 53 57 61 65 68 72
Zimbru 1492 46 55.35 -9.35 6.0% 38 46 51 55 61 66 69
Nistru Otaci 1433 52 40.96 +11.04 97.0% 20 29 37 41 45 51 56
Cioburciu 1339 39 33.76 +5.24 81.0% 18 24 29 33 38 44 51
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1281 32 29.78 +2.22 71.0% 17 19 27 30 33 37 41
Agro Chisinau 1231 29 25.07 +3.93 77.0% 12 15 22 25 29 33 39
Tiligul 1183 25 31.55 -6.55 13.0% 15 22 28 32 35 41 44
Happy End Camenca 1106 15 29.14 -14.14 0.0% 17 20 24 29 33 39 47

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.39%
Clear Edge
42.86%27.68%29.46%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.81 Elo pts.
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
73%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.54/gm
Runaway
00.280.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.79 * Some Luck: 4.79 to 7.18 * Lucky: 7.18 to 9.58 * Wild Swing: 9.58 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.72 * Close: 0.72 to 1.08 * Off: 1.08 to 1.44 * Way Off: 1.44 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.19 points
Lucky
05.9915
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.902
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Nistru Otaci
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Happy End Camenca
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Balanced
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 172.80
2.41
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
79%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.77
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Weak Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.61
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.113
Well Within Noise
00.1600.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol73.00%24.00%3.00%—————
Nistru Otaci—10.00%55.00%20.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%
Zimbru27.00%63.00%10.00%—————
Cioburciu—3.00%16.00%26.00%21.00%15.00%13.00%6.00%
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti——3.00%13.00%25.00%28.00%18.00%13.00%
Agro Chisinau——1.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%25.00%44.00%
Tiligul——7.00%23.00%22.00%20.00%16.00%12.00%
Happy End Camenca——5.00%13.00%14.00%19.00%25.00%24.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% — —
Zimbru 100% — —
Nistru Otaci 96.00% 3.00% 1.00%
Cioburciu 81.00% 13.00% 6.00%
Tiligul 72.00% 16.00% 12.00%
Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 69.00% 18.00% 13.00%
Happy End Camenca 51.00% 25.00% 24.00%
Agro Chisinau 31.00% 25.00% 44.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2001-07-28 Happy End Camenca W 2-146.5 1334 1313 44.66% 28.94% 26.40%+0.37 +10.0 3
2001-07-28 @ Cioburciu L 1-246.5 1313 1334 26.40% 28.94% 44.66%-0.37 -10.0 0
2001-07-28 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-040.5 1288 1264 45.07% 28.90% 26.03%+0.39 +10.5 3
2001-07-28 @ Tiligul L 0-140.5 1264 1288 26.03% 28.90% 45.07%-0.39 -10.5 0
2001-07-28 Zimbru L 0-433.1 1226 1484 13.79% 25.62% 60.59%-1.16 -21.5 0
2001-07-28 @ Agro Chisinau W 4-033.1 1484 1226 60.59% 25.62% 13.79%+1.16 +21.5 3
2001-08-03 Happy End Camenca D 1-156.5 1506 1303 64.05% 24.32% 11.63%+1.37 -4.2 4
2001-08-03 @ Zimbru D 1-156.5 1303 1506 11.63% 24.32% 64.05%-1.37 +4.2 1
2001-08-04 Cioburciu D 3-361.1 1253 1344 29.36% 29.18% 41.46%-0.24 +0.5 1
2001-08-04 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 3-361.1 1344 1253 41.46% 29.18% 29.36%+0.24 -0.5 4
2001-08-04 Nistru Otaci L 0-240.3 1204 1271 32.54% 29.32% 38.14%-0.11 -23.5 0
2001-08-04 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-040.3 1271 1204 38.14% 29.32% 32.54%+0.11 +23.5 3
2001-08-04 Tiligul W 3-141.1 1512 1299 64.86% 23.99% 11.15%+1.42 +7.9 3
2001-08-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-341.1 1299 1512 11.15% 23.99% 64.86%-1.42 -7.9 3
2001-08-11 Agro Chisinau L 1-253.6 1291 1181 55.11% 27.22% 17.67%+0.86 -17.7 3
2001-08-11 @ Tiligul W 2-153.6 1181 1291 17.67% 27.22% 55.11%-0.86 +17.7 3
2001-08-11 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-152.1 1307 1254 48.64% 28.47% 22.90%+0.55 -1.9 2
2001-08-11 @ Happy End Camenca D 1-152.1 1254 1307 22.90% 28.47% 48.64%-0.55 +1.9 2
2001-08-11 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-143.0 1344 1519 20.04% 27.89% 52.07%-0.71 -8.5 4
2001-08-11 @ Cioburciu W 1-043.0 1519 1344 52.07% 27.89% 20.04%+0.71 +8.5 6
2001-08-18 Cioburciu L 0-336.3 1199 1335 23.98% 28.64% 47.38%-0.49 -27.0 3
2001-08-18 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-036.3 1335 1199 47.38% 28.64% 23.98%+0.49 +27.0 7
2001-08-18 Happy End Camenca W 1-038.1 1528 1305 65.73% 23.61% 10.66%+1.48 +4.6 9
2001-08-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-138.1 1305 1528 10.66% 23.61% 65.73%-1.48 -4.6 2
2001-08-18 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 0-051.4 1502 1256 67.62% 22.75% 9.63%+1.60 -5.2 5
2001-08-18 @ Zimbru D 0-051.4 1256 1502 9.63% 22.75% 67.62%-1.60 +5.2 3
2001-08-19 Tiligul D 0-047.5 1294 1273 44.66% 28.94% 26.40%+0.37 -1.5 4
2001-08-19 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-047.5 1273 1294 26.40% 28.94% 44.66%-0.37 +1.5 4
2001-08-25 Agro Chisinau D 1-152.3 1300 1172 57.06% 26.72% 16.23%+0.96 -3.2 3
2001-08-25 @ Happy End Camenca D 1-152.3 1172 1300 16.23% 26.72% 57.06%-0.96 +3.2 4
2001-08-25 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-634.2 1261 1533 13.01% 25.20% 61.79%-1.23 -29.8 3
2001-08-25 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 6-034.2 1533 1261 61.79% 25.20% 13.01%+1.23 +29.8 12
2001-08-27 Nistru Otaci D 1-152.9 1362 1293 50.54% 28.17% 21.30%+0.63 -2.2 8
2001-08-27 @ Cioburciu D 1-152.9 1293 1362 21.30% 28.17% 50.54%-0.63 +2.2 5
2001-09-09 Cioburciu W 3-042.1 1275 1360 30.08% 29.22% 40.70%-0.21 +40.1 7
2001-09-09 @ Tiligul L 0-342.1 1360 1275 40.70% 29.22% 30.08%+0.21 -40.1 8
2001-09-09 Happy End Camenca W 3-145.1 1295 1297 41.58% 29.17% 29.24%+0.24 +18.8 8
2001-09-09 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-345.1 1297 1295 29.24% 29.17% 41.58%-0.24 -18.8 3
2001-09-09 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-043.4 1175 1231 33.94% 29.35% 36.71%-0.05 +13.6 7
2001-09-09 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-143.4 1231 1175 36.71% 29.35% 33.94%+0.05 -13.6 3
2001-09-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-364.0 1497 1562 32.66% 29.32% 38.02%-0.10 -11.2 5
2001-09-09 @ Zimbru W 3-264.0 1562 1497 38.02% 29.32% 32.66%+0.10 +11.2 15
2001-09-14 Agro Chisinau D 2-262.9 1573 1188 77.49% 17.27% 5.23%+2.36 -4.3 16
2001-09-14 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 2-262.9 1188 1573 5.23% 17.27% 77.49%-2.36 +4.3 8
2001-09-14 Nistru Otaci L 0-239.2 1218 1314 28.65% 29.13% 42.21%-0.27 -21.4 3
2001-09-14 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-039.2 1314 1218 42.21% 29.13% 28.65%+0.27 +21.4 11
2001-09-14 Tiligul D 1-152.0 1278 1315 36.81% 29.35% 33.84%+0.06 -0.2 4
2001-09-14 @ Happy End Camenca D 1-152.0 1315 1278 33.84% 29.35% 36.81%-0.06 +0.2 8
2001-09-14 Zimbru D 2-260.6 1320 1485 21.00% 28.11% 50.89%-0.65 +1.7 9
2001-09-14 @ Cioburciu D 2-260.6 1485 1320 50.89% 28.11% 21.00%+0.65 -1.7 6
2001-09-23 Agro Chisinau W 2-031.6 1484 1193 71.09% 21.00% 7.91%+1.85 +6.2 9
2001-09-23 @ Zimbru L 0-231.6 1193 1484 7.91% 21.00% 71.09%-1.85 -6.2 8
2001-09-23 Cioburciu W 3-040.1 1278 1321 35.85% 29.35% 34.80%+0.02 +35.8 7
2001-09-23 @ Happy End Camenca L 0-340.1 1321 1278 34.80% 29.35% 35.85%-0.02 -35.8 9
2001-09-23 Nistru Otaci D 1-159.5 1569 1335 66.63% 23.21% 10.16%+1.54 -4.5 17
2001-09-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-159.5 1335 1569 10.16% 23.21% 66.63%-1.54 +4.6 12
2001-09-23 Tiligul W 3-149.4 1196 1315 25.96% 28.89% 45.15%-0.39 +25.9 6
2001-09-23 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-349.4 1315 1196 45.15% 28.89% 25.96%+0.39 -25.9 8
2001-09-29 Agro Chisinau W 2-034.0 1340 1186 59.50% 25.99% 14.52%+1.10 +11.9 15
2001-09-29 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-234.0 1186 1340 14.52% 25.99% 59.50%-1.10 -11.9 8
2001-09-29 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-546.8 1286 1222 49.87% 28.28% 21.85%+0.60 -51.4 9
2001-09-29 @ Cioburciu W 5-146.8 1222 1286 21.85% 28.28% 49.87%-0.60 +51.4 9
2001-09-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-139.7 1289 1565 12.78% 25.06% 62.16%-1.25 -5.6 8
2001-09-29 @ Tiligul W 1-039.7 1565 1289 62.16% 25.06% 12.78%+1.25 +5.6 20
2001-09-29 Zimbru D 1-155.3 1314 1490 20.04% 27.89% 52.07%-0.71 +2.4 8
2001-09-29 @ Happy End Camenca D 1-155.3 1490 1314 52.07% 27.89% 20.04%+0.71 -2.4 10
2001-10-14 Cioburciu W 4-030.7 1570 1234 74.28% 19.22% 6.50%+2.09 +9.4 23
2001-10-14 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-430.7 1234 1570 6.50% 19.22% 74.28%-2.09 -9.4 9
2001-10-14 Happy End Camenca W 2-148.7 1274 1316 35.91% 29.35% 34.73%+0.02 +12.3 12
2001-10-14 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-248.7 1316 1274 34.73% 29.35% 35.91%-0.02 -12.3 8
2001-10-14 Nistru Otaci D 0-052.1 1488 1352 57.75% 26.52% 15.73%+1.00 -3.7 11
2001-10-14 @ Zimbru D 0-052.1 1352 1488 15.73% 26.52% 57.75%-1.00 +3.7 16
2001-10-14 Tiligul L 1-245.7 1174 1284 27.09% 29.01% 43.90%-0.34 -10.2 8
2001-10-14 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-145.7 1284 1174 43.90% 29.01% 27.09%+0.34 +10.2 11
2001-10-19 Zimbru L 0-535.8 1286 1484 18.14% 27.37% 54.48%-0.83 -34.4 12
2001-10-19 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 5-035.8 1484 1286 54.48% 27.37% 18.14%+0.83 +34.4 14
2001-10-20 Agro Chisinau L 0-146.9 1225 1164 49.55% 28.33% 22.12%+0.59 -17.1 9
2001-10-20 @ Cioburciu W 1-046.9 1164 1225 22.12% 28.33% 49.55%-0.59 +17.2 11
2001-10-20 Nistru Otaci W 2-150.0 1294 1356 33.21% 29.34% 37.46%-0.08 +13.0 14
2001-10-20 @ Tiligul L 1-250.0 1356 1294 37.46% 29.34% 33.21%+0.08 -13.0 16
2001-10-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-245.8 1304 1580 12.79% 25.07% 62.15%-1.25 -5.3 8
2001-10-20 @ Happy End Camenca W 2-145.8 1580 1304 62.15% 25.07% 12.79%+1.25 +5.3 26
2001-10-28 Cioburciu W 3-033.2 1343 1208 57.67% 26.54% 15.79%+0.99 +18.8 19
2001-10-28 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-333.2 1208 1343 15.79% 26.54% 57.67%-0.99 -18.8 9
2001-10-28 Happy End Camenca L 0-140.2 1181 1299 26.10% 28.91% 45.00%-0.39 -10.5 11
2001-10-28 @ Agro Chisinau W 1-040.2 1299 1181 45.00% 28.91% 26.10%+0.39 +10.5 11
2001-10-28 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-033.6 1585 1252 74.09% 19.33% 6.58%+2.08 +5.0 29
2001-10-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-233.6 1252 1585 6.58% 19.33% 74.09%-2.08 -5.0 12
2001-10-28 Tiligul W 5-033.9 1518 1307 64.76% 24.03% 11.21%+1.41 +21.5 17
2001-10-28 @ Zimbru L 0-533.9 1307 1518 11.21% 24.03% 64.76%-1.41 -21.5 14
2001-11-03 Agro Chisinau W 2-143.4 1247 1171 51.32% 28.03% 20.65%+0.67 +8.2 15
2001-11-03 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-243.4 1171 1247 20.65% 28.03% 51.32%-0.67 -8.2 11
2001-11-03 Nistru Otaci L 2-451.1 1309 1361 34.59% 29.35% 36.06%-0.03 -19.0 11
2001-11-03 @ Happy End Camenca W 4-251.1 1361 1309 36.06% 29.35% 34.59%+0.03 +19.0 22
2001-11-03 Tiligul W 1-045.1 1189 1285 28.64% 29.13% 42.23%-0.27 +15.1 12
2001-11-03 @ Cioburciu L 0-145.1 1285 1189 42.23% 29.13% 28.64%+0.27 -15.1 14
2001-11-03 Zimbru D 0-061.4 1590 1540 48.29% 28.52% 23.19%+0.53 -2.1 30
2001-11-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-061.4 1540 1590 23.19% 28.52% 48.29%-0.53 +2.1 18
2001-11-07 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-145.5 1380 1588 17.37% 27.13% 55.51%-0.88 -7.5 22
2001-11-07 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-045.5 1588 1380 55.51% 27.13% 17.37%+0.88 +7.5 33
2001-11-07 Zimbru L 1-244.0 1270 1542 13.01% 25.20% 61.79%-1.23 -5.4 14
2001-11-07 @ Tiligul W 2-144.0 1542 1270 61.79% 25.20% 13.01%+1.23 +5.4 21
2001-11-11 Cioburciu W 2-031.6 1547 1204 74.77% 18.93% 6.30%+2.13 +4.8 24
2001-11-11 @ Zimbru L 0-231.6 1204 1547 6.30% 18.93% 74.77%-2.13 -4.8 12
2001-11-11 Happy End Camenca D 2-257.1 1265 1290 38.34% 29.31% 32.35%+0.12 -0.3 15
2001-11-11 @ Tiligul D 2-257.1 1290 1265 32.35% 29.31% 38.34%-0.12 +0.3 12
2001-11-11 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-035.7 1373 1255 55.94% 27.01% 17.04%+0.90 +13.9 25
2001-11-11 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-235.7 1255 1373 17.04% 27.01% 55.94%-0.90 -13.9 15
2001-11-11 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-337.1 1163 1595 6.41% 19.09% 74.49%-2.11 -4.2 11
2001-11-11 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-137.1 1595 1163 74.49% 19.09% 6.41%+2.11 +4.2 36
2001-11-15 Zimbru L 0-243.8 1387 1552 21.05% 28.12% 50.83%-0.65 -16.7 25
2001-11-15 @ Nistru Otaci W 2-043.8 1552 1387 50.83% 28.12% 21.05%+0.65 +16.7 27
2002-03-17 Agro Chisinau W 1-031.9 1569 1158 79.02% 16.30% 4.67%+2.50 +1.8 30
2002-03-17 @ Zimbru L 0-131.9 1158 1569 4.67% 16.30% 79.02%-2.50 -1.8 11
2002-03-17 Cioburciu L 0-148.0 1291 1199 53.10% 27.68% 19.22%+0.76 -18.2 12
2002-03-17 @ Happy End Camenca W 1-048.0 1199 1291 19.22% 27.68% 53.10%-0.76 +18.2 15
2002-03-17 Nistru Otaci D 0-057.3 1600 1370 66.27% 23.37% 10.36%+1.51 -5.0 37
2002-03-17 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-057.3 1370 1600 10.36% 23.37% 66.27%-1.51 +5.0 26
2002-03-17 Tiligul D 1-151.6 1241 1265 38.62% 29.31% 32.07%+0.13 -0.5 16
2002-03-17 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-151.6 1265 1241 32.07% 29.31% 38.62%-0.13 +0.5 16
2002-03-30 Agro Chisinau D 0-048.9 1375 1157 65.35% 23.78% 10.87%+1.45 -4.9 27
2002-03-30 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-048.9 1157 1375 10.87% 23.78% 65.35%-1.45 +4.9 12
2002-03-30 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-151.5 1217 1240 38.68% 29.30% 32.01%+0.13 -0.5 16
2002-03-30 @ Cioburciu D 1-151.5 1240 1217 32.01% 29.30% 38.68%-0.13 +0.5 17
2002-03-30 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-534.2 1265 1594 10.07% 23.13% 66.80%-1.55 -19.1 16
2002-03-30 @ Tiligul W 5-034.2 1594 1265 66.80% 23.13% 10.07%+1.55 +19.1 40
2002-03-30 Zimbru L 0-335.4 1273 1570 11.58% 24.29% 64.13%-1.37 -13.8 12
2002-03-30 @ Happy End Camenca W 3-035.4 1570 1273 64.13% 24.29% 11.58%+1.37 +13.8 33
2002-04-07 Cioburciu W 2-139.5 1614 1217 78.21% 16.83% 4.97%+2.43 +1.8 43
2002-04-07 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-239.5 1217 1614 4.97% 16.83% 78.21%-2.43 -1.8 16
2002-04-07 Happy End Camenca W 3-145.3 1241 1259 39.42% 29.28% 31.30%+0.16 +19.8 20
2002-04-07 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-345.3 1259 1241 31.30% 29.28% 39.42%-0.16 -19.8 12
2002-04-07 Nistru Otaci D 0-056.6 1584 1370 64.98% 23.94% 11.09%+1.43 -4.8 34
2002-04-07 @ Zimbru D 0-056.6 1370 1584 11.09% 23.94% 64.98%-1.43 +4.8 28
2002-04-07 Tiligul W 5-248.4 1162 1246 30.17% 29.23% 40.60%-0.21 +29.2 15
2002-04-07 @ Agro Chisinau L 2-548.4 1246 1162 40.60% 29.23% 30.17%+0.21 -29.2 16
2002-04-12 Agro Chisinau W 1-040.0 1215 1191 45.06% 28.90% 26.04%+0.39 +10.5 19
2002-04-12 @ Cioburciu L 0-140.0 1191 1215 26.04% 28.90% 45.06%-0.39 -10.5 15
2002-04-12 Nistru Otaci D 1-152.4 1217 1375 21.71% 28.25% 50.03%-0.61 +2.1 17
2002-04-12 @ Tiligul D 1-152.4 1375 1217 50.03% 28.25% 21.71%+0.61 -2.1 29
2002-04-12 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-433.1 1239 1615 8.21% 21.33% 70.47%-1.80 -12.3 12
2002-04-12 @ Happy End Camenca W 4-033.1 1615 1239 70.47% 21.33% 8.21%+1.80 +12.3 46
2002-04-12 Zimbru D 1-157.5 1261 1579 10.56% 23.54% 65.90%-1.49 +4.5 21
2002-04-12 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-157.5 1579 1261 65.90% 23.54% 10.56%+1.49 -4.5 35
2002-04-20 Cioburciu W 2-141.8 1373 1226 58.89% 26.18% 14.93%+1.06 +6.1 32
2002-04-20 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-241.8 1226 1373 14.93% 26.18% 58.89%-1.06 -6.1 19
2002-04-20 Happy End Camenca W 2-148.2 1180 1227 35.37% 29.36% 35.27%+0.00 +12.4 18
2002-04-20 @ Agro Chisinau L 1-248.2 1227 1180 35.27% 29.36% 35.37%+0.00 -12.4 12
2002-04-20 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 0-056.2 1628 1265 76.05% 18.16% 5.78%+2.24 -6.3 47
2002-04-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-056.2 1265 1628 5.78% 18.16% 76.05%-2.24 +6.3 22
2002-04-20 Tiligul W 2-032.1 1575 1219 75.63% 18.42% 5.95%+2.20 +4.5 38
2002-04-20 @ Zimbru L 0-232.1 1219 1575 5.95% 18.42% 75.63%-2.20 -4.5 17
2002-04-28 Agro Chisinau D 0-047.4 1271 1193 51.67% 27.96% 20.37%+0.69 -2.6 23
2002-04-28 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 0-047.4 1193 1271 20.37% 27.96% 51.67%-0.69 +2.6 19
2002-04-28 Nistru Otaci L 0-139.0 1214 1379 21.09% 28.12% 50.78%-0.65 -8.9 12
2002-04-28 @ Happy End Camenca W 1-039.0 1379 1214 50.78% 28.12% 21.09%+0.65 +8.9 35
2002-04-28 Tiligul W 1-040.9 1220 1214 42.55% 29.11% 28.34%+0.28 +11.2 22
2002-04-28 @ Cioburciu L 0-140.9 1214 1220 28.34% 29.11% 42.55%-0.28 -11.2 17
2002-04-28 Zimbru W 2-053.5 1621 1579 47.30% 28.65% 24.05%+0.49 +18.6 50
2002-04-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-253.5 1579 1621 24.05% 28.65% 47.30%-0.49 -18.7 38
2002-05-04 Cioburciu L 0-154.8 1561 1231 73.87% 19.46% 6.68%+2.06 -23.7 38
2002-05-04 @ Zimbru W 1-054.8 1231 1561 6.68% 19.46% 73.87%-2.06 +23.7 25
2002-05-04 Happy End Camenca W 3-037.7 1203 1205 41.55% 29.18% 29.28%+0.24 +31.5 20
2002-05-04 @ Tiligul L 0-337.7 1205 1203 29.28% 29.18% 41.55%-0.24 -31.5 12
2002-05-04 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 2-143.2 1388 1269 56.05% 26.99% 16.96%+0.91 +6.9 38
2002-05-04 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-243.2 1269 1388 16.96% 26.99% 56.05%-0.91 -6.9 23
2002-05-04 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-240.5 1195 1640 6.08% 18.61% 75.30%-2.18 -2.3 19
2002-05-04 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-140.5 1640 1195 75.30% 18.61% 6.08%+2.18 +2.3 53
2002-05-11 Happy End Camenca W 5-033.8 1254 1174 51.87% 27.93% 20.20%+0.70 +37.8 28
2002-05-11 @ Cioburciu L 0-533.8 1174 1254 20.20% 27.93% 51.87%-0.70 -37.8 12
2002-05-11 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 1-151.6 1235 1262 38.10% 29.32% 32.58%+0.11 -0.4 21
2002-05-11 @ Tiligul D 1-151.6 1262 1235 32.58% 29.32% 38.10%-0.11 +0.4 24
2002-05-11 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-343.4 1395 1642 14.49% 25.97% 59.54%-1.10 -17.3 38
2002-05-11 @ Nistru Otaci W 3-043.4 1642 1395 59.54% 25.97% 14.49%+1.10 +17.3 56
2002-05-11 Zimbru W 1-052.8 1193 1537 9.45% 22.58% 67.96%-1.63 +22.3 22
2002-05-11 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-152.8 1537 1193 67.96% 22.58% 9.45%+1.63 -22.3 38
2002-05-17 Nistru Otaci L 1-244.3 1215 1378 21.34% 28.18% 50.48%-0.63 -8.5 22
2002-05-17 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-144.3 1378 1215 50.48% 28.18% 21.34%+0.63 +8.5 41
2002-05-17 Tiligul W 3-032.1 1660 1234 79.91% 15.73% 4.36%+2.58 +4.5 59
2002-05-17 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-332.1 1234 1660 4.36% 15.73% 79.91%-2.58 -4.5 21
2002-05-18 Cioburciu W 2-147.9 1262 1292 37.73% 29.33% 32.94%+0.09 +11.8 27
2002-05-18 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 1-247.9 1292 1262 32.94% 29.33% 37.73%-0.09 -11.8 28
2002-05-18 Happy End Camenca W 10-028.1 1515 1136 77.08% 17.53% 5.39%+2.33 +17.9 41
2002-05-18 @ Zimbru L 0-1028.1 1136 1515 5.39% 17.53% 77.08%-2.33 -17.9 12
2002-05-26 Agro Chisinau D 0-047.0 1230 1207 44.87% 28.92% 26.21%+0.38 -1.5 22
2002-05-26 @ Tiligul D 0-047.0 1207 1230 26.21% 28.92% 44.87%-0.38 +1.5 23
2002-05-26 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti L 0-335.2 1118 1274 21.95% 28.30% 49.75%-0.60 -25.1 12
2002-05-26 @ Happy End Camenca W 3-035.2 1274 1118 49.75% 28.30% 21.95%+0.60 +25.1 30
2002-05-26 Sheriff Tiraspol W 4-265.9 1280 1664 7.95% 21.04% 71.02%-1.84 +33.7 31
2002-05-26 @ Cioburciu L 2-465.9 1664 1280 71.02% 21.04% 7.95%+1.84 -33.7 59
2002-05-26 Zimbru W 2-051.5 1386 1533 22.90% 28.47% 48.63%-0.55 +31.8 44
2002-05-26 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-251.5 1533 1386 48.63% 28.47% 22.90%+0.55 -31.8 41
2002-06-01 Cioburciu L 0-140.8 1208 1314 27.50% 29.04% 43.46%-0.32 -11.0 23
2002-06-01 @ Agro Chisinau W 1-040.8 1314 1208 43.46% 29.04% 27.50%+0.32 +11.0 34
2002-06-01 Happy End Camenca W 5-129.4 1630 1093 85.62% 11.79% 2.58%+3.20 +2.6 62
2002-06-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-529.4 1093 1630 2.58% 11.79% 85.62%-3.20 -2.6 12
2002-06-01 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 4-139.1 1501 1299 63.89% 24.39% 11.72%+1.36 +11.8 44
2002-06-01 @ Zimbru L 1-439.1 1299 1501 11.72% 24.39% 63.89%-1.36 -11.8 30
2002-06-01 Tiligul W 1-035.8 1418 1228 62.84% 24.80% 12.35%+1.29 +5.4 47
2002-06-01 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-135.8 1228 1418 12.35% 24.80% 62.84%-1.29 -5.4 22
2002-06-05 Agro Chisinau L 0-238.3 1090 1197 27.33% 29.03% 43.64%-0.33 -20.6 12
2002-06-05 @ Happy End Camenca W 2-038.3 1197 1090 43.64% 29.03% 27.33%+0.33 +20.6 26
2002-06-05 Nistru Otaci D 2-259.1 1325 1423 28.42% 29.12% 42.46%-0.28 +0.7 35
2002-06-05 @ Cioburciu D 2-259.1 1423 1325 42.46% 29.12% 28.42%+0.28 -0.7 48
2002-06-05 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-055.8 1288 1633 9.39% 22.52% 68.09%-1.63 +5.3 31
2002-06-05 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 0-055.8 1633 1288 68.09% 22.52% 9.39%+1.63 -5.3 63
2002-06-05 Zimbru W 1-052.2 1223 1512 12.01% 24.58% 63.41%-1.33 +21.2 25
2002-06-05 @ Tiligul L 0-152.2 1512 1223 63.41% 24.58% 12.01%+1.33 -21.2 44
2002-06-09 Cioburciu L 0-142.0 1244 1326 30.51% 29.24% 40.24%-0.19 -11.9 25
2002-06-09 @ Tiligul W 1-042.0 1326 1244 40.24% 29.24% 30.51%+0.19 +11.9 38
2002-06-09 Happy End Camenca W 6-027.0 1422 1070 75.40% 18.55% 6.04%+2.19 +12.6 51
2002-06-09 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-627.0 1070 1422 6.04% 18.55% 75.40%-2.19 -12.6 12
2002-06-09 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti W 1-044.4 1218 1293 31.44% 29.28% 39.28%-0.15 +14.3 29
2002-06-09 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-144.4 1293 1218 39.28% 29.28% 31.44%+0.15 -14.2 31
2002-06-09 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-165.5 1491 1628 23.97% 28.64% 47.39%-0.49 +1.7 45
2002-06-09 @ Zimbru D 1-165.5 1628 1491 47.39% 28.64% 23.97%+0.49 -1.7 64
2002-06-15 Agro Chisinau W 3-245.0 1626 1232 78.03% 16.94% 5.03%+2.41 +1.7 67
2002-06-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-345.0 1232 1626 5.03% 16.94% 78.03%-2.41 -1.7 29
2002-06-15 Nistru Otaci D 0-049.0 1279 1435 21.90% 28.29% 49.82%-0.60 +2.3 32
2002-06-15 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti D 0-049.0 1435 1279 49.82% 28.29% 21.90%+0.60 -2.3 52
2002-06-15 Tiligul W 3-043.9 1057 1232 20.13% 27.91% 51.96%-0.70 +48.9 15
2002-06-15 @ Happy End Camenca L 0-343.9 1232 1057 51.96% 27.91% 20.13%+0.70 -48.9 25
2002-06-15 Zimbru D 2-261.1 1338 1493 22.01% 28.31% 49.68%-0.59 +1.5 39
2002-06-15 @ Cioburciu D 2-261.1 1493 1338 49.68% 28.31% 22.01%+0.59 -1.5 46

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-05-04 6.68% Cioburciu 1231 1 @ Zimbru 1561 0
2 2002-05-26 7.95% @ Cioburciu 1280 4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1664 2
3 2002-05-11 9.45% @ Agro Chisinau 1193 1 Zimbru 1537 0
4 2002-06-05 12.01% @ Tiligul 1223 1 Zimbru 1512 0
5 2001-08-11 17.67% Agro Chisinau 1181 2 @ Tiligul 1291 1
6 2002-03-17 19.22% Cioburciu 1199 1 @ Happy End Camenca 1291 0
7 2002-06-15 20.13% @ Happy End Camenca 1057 3 Tiligul 1232 0
8 2001-09-29 21.85% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1222 5 @ Cioburciu 1286 1
9 2001-10-20 22.12% Agro Chisinau 1164 1 @ Cioburciu 1225 0
10 2002-05-26 22.90% @ Nistru Otaci 1386 2 Zimbru 1533 0
11 2001-09-23 25.96% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1196 3 Tiligul 1315 1
12 2001-11-03 28.64% @ Cioburciu 1189 1 Tiligul 1285 0
13 2001-09-09 30.08% @ Tiligul 1275 3 Cioburciu 1360 0
14 2002-04-07 30.17% @ Agro Chisinau 1162 5 Tiligul 1246 2
15 2002-06-09 31.44% @ Agro Chisinau 1218 1 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1293 0
16 2001-10-20 33.21% @ Tiligul 1294 2 Nistru Otaci 1356 1
17 2001-09-09 33.94% @ Agro Chisinau 1175 1 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1231 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-09-29 51.42 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 5 1222 21.85% @ Cioburciu 1 1286 49.87% 28.28%
2 2002-06-15 48.90 @ Happy End Camenca 3 1057 20.13% Tiligul 0 1232 51.96% 27.91%
3 2001-09-09 40.11 @ Tiligul 3 1275 30.08% Cioburciu 0 1360 40.70% 29.22%
4 2002-05-11 37.76 @ Cioburciu 5 1254 51.87% Happy End Camenca 0 1174 20.20% 27.93%
5 2001-09-23 35.76 @ Happy End Camenca 3 1278 35.85% Cioburciu 0 1321 34.80% 29.35%
6 2001-10-19 34.38 Zimbru 5 1484 54.48% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1286 18.14% 27.37%
7 2002-05-26 33.71 @ Cioburciu 4 1280 7.95% Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1664 71.02% 21.04%
8 2002-05-26 31.84 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1386 22.90% Zimbru 0 1533 48.63% 28.47%
9 2002-05-04 31.53 @ Tiligul 3 1203 41.55% Happy End Camenca 0 1205 29.28% 29.18%
10 2001-08-25 29.76 Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1533 61.79% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1261 13.01% 25.20%
11 2002-04-07 29.24 @ Agro Chisinau 5 1162 30.17% Tiligul 2 1246 40.60% 29.23%
12 2001-08-18 27.03 Cioburciu 3 1335 47.38% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1199 23.98% 28.64%
13 2001-09-23 25.94 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1196 25.96% Tiligul 1 1315 45.15% 28.89%
14 2002-05-26 25.15 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1274 49.75% @ Happy End Camenca 0 1118 21.95% 28.30%
15 2002-05-04 23.69 Cioburciu 1 1231 6.68% @ Zimbru 0 1561 73.87% 19.46%
16 2001-08-04 23.47 Nistru Otaci 2 1271 38.14% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1204 32.54% 29.32%
17 2002-05-11 22.35 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1193 9.45% Zimbru 0 1537 67.96% 22.58%
18 2001-07-28 21.54 Zimbru 4 1484 60.59% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1226 13.79% 25.62%
19 2001-10-28 21.45 @ Zimbru 5 1518 64.76% Tiligul 0 1307 11.21% 24.03%
20 2001-09-14 21.37 Nistru Otaci 2 1314 42.21% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1218 28.65% 29.13%
21 2002-06-05 21.16 @ Tiligul 1 1223 12.01% Zimbru 0 1512 63.41% 24.58%
22 2002-06-05 20.61 Agro Chisinau 2 1197 43.64% @ Happy End Camenca 0 1090 27.33% 29.03%
23 2002-04-07 19.75 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1241 39.42% Happy End Camenca 1 1259 31.30% 29.28%
24 2002-03-30 19.12 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1594 66.80% @ Tiligul 0 1265 10.07% 23.13%
25 2001-11-03 19.00 Nistru Otaci 4 1361 36.06% @ Happy End Camenca 2 1309 34.59% 29.35%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-05-26 65.9 @ Cioburciu 4 1280 7.95% Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1664 71.02% 21.04%
2 2002-06-09 65.5 @ Zimbru 1 1491 23.97% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1628 47.39% 28.64%
3 2001-09-09 64.0 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1562 38.02% @ Zimbru 2 1497 32.66% 29.32%
4 2001-09-14 62.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1573 77.49% Agro Chisinau 2 1188 5.23% 17.27%
5 2001-11-03 61.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1590 48.29% Zimbru 0 1540 23.19% 28.52%
6 2001-08-04 61.1 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1253 29.36% Cioburciu 3 1344 41.46% 29.18%
7 2002-06-15 61.1 @ Cioburciu 2 1338 22.01% Zimbru 2 1493 49.68% 28.31%
8 2001-09-14 60.6 @ Cioburciu 2 1320 21.00% Zimbru 2 1485 50.89% 28.11%
9 2001-09-23 59.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1569 66.63% Nistru Otaci 1 1335 10.16% 23.21%
10 2002-06-05 59.1 @ Cioburciu 2 1325 28.42% Nistru Otaci 2 1423 42.46% 29.12%
11 2002-04-12 57.5 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 1 1261 10.56% Zimbru 1 1579 65.90% 23.54%
12 2002-03-17 57.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1600 66.27% Nistru Otaci 0 1370 10.36% 23.37%
13 2001-11-11 57.1 @ Tiligul 2 1265 38.34% Happy End Camenca 2 1290 32.35% 29.31%
14 2002-04-07 56.6 @ Zimbru 0 1584 64.98% Nistru Otaci 0 1370 11.09% 23.94%
15 2001-08-03 56.5 @ Zimbru 1 1506 64.05% Happy End Camenca 1 1303 11.63% 24.32%
16 2002-04-20 56.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1628 76.05% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1265 5.78% 18.16%
17 2002-06-05 55.8 @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1288 9.39% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1633 68.09% 22.52%
18 2001-09-29 55.3 @ Happy End Camenca 1 1314 20.04% Zimbru 1 1490 52.07% 27.89%
19 2002-05-04 54.8 Cioburciu 1 1231 6.68% @ Zimbru 0 1561 73.87% 19.46%
20 2001-08-11 53.6 Agro Chisinau 2 1181 17.67% @ Tiligul 1 1291 55.11% 27.22%
21 2002-04-28 53.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1621 47.30% Zimbru 0 1579 24.05% 28.65%
22 2001-08-27 52.9 @ Cioburciu 1 1362 50.54% Nistru Otaci 1 1293 21.30% 28.17%
23 2002-05-11 52.8 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1193 9.45% Zimbru 0 1537 67.96% 22.58%
24 2002-04-12 52.4 @ Tiligul 1 1217 21.71% Nistru Otaci 1 1375 50.03% 28.25%
25 2001-08-25 52.3 @ Happy End Camenca 1 1300 57.06% Agro Chisinau 1 1172 16.23% 26.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-06-09 27.0 @ Nistru Otaci 6 1422 75.40% Happy End Camenca 0 1070 6.04% 18.55%
2 2002-05-18 28.1 @ Zimbru 10 1515 77.08% Happy End Camenca 0 1136 5.39% 17.53%
3 2002-06-01 29.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1630 85.62% Happy End Camenca 1 1093 2.58% 11.79%
4 2001-10-14 30.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1570 74.28% Cioburciu 0 1234 6.50% 19.22%
5 2001-09-23 31.6 @ Zimbru 2 1484 71.09% Agro Chisinau 0 1193 7.91% 21.00%
6 2001-11-11 31.6 @ Zimbru 2 1547 74.77% Cioburciu 0 1204 6.30% 18.93%
7 2002-03-17 31.9 @ Zimbru 1 1569 79.02% Agro Chisinau 0 1158 4.67% 16.30%
8 2002-04-20 32.1 @ Zimbru 2 1575 75.63% Tiligul 0 1219 5.95% 18.42%
9 2002-05-17 32.1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1660 79.91% Tiligul 0 1234 4.36% 15.73%
10 2001-07-28 33.1 Zimbru 4 1484 60.59% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1226 13.79% 25.62%
11 2002-04-12 33.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1615 70.47% @ Happy End Camenca 0 1239 8.21% 21.33%
12 2001-10-28 33.2 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1343 57.67% Cioburciu 0 1208 15.79% 26.54%
13 2001-10-28 33.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1585 74.09% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1252 6.58% 19.33%
14 2002-05-11 33.8 @ Cioburciu 5 1254 51.87% Happy End Camenca 0 1174 20.20% 27.93%
15 2001-10-28 33.9 @ Zimbru 5 1518 64.76% Tiligul 0 1307 11.21% 24.03%
16 2001-09-29 34.0 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1340 59.50% Agro Chisinau 0 1186 14.52% 25.99%
17 2001-08-25 34.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1533 61.79% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1261 13.01% 25.20%
18 2002-03-30 34.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1594 66.80% @ Tiligul 0 1265 10.07% 23.13%
19 2002-05-26 35.2 Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 3 1274 49.75% @ Happy End Camenca 0 1118 21.95% 28.30%
20 2002-03-30 35.4 Zimbru 3 1570 64.13% @ Happy End Camenca 0 1273 11.58% 24.29%
21 2001-11-11 35.7 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1373 55.94% Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1255 17.04% 27.01%
22 2001-10-19 35.8 Zimbru 5 1484 54.48% @ Haiduc-Sporting Hincesti 0 1286 18.14% 27.37%
23 2002-06-01 35.8 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1418 62.84% Tiligul 0 1228 12.35% 24.80%
24 2001-08-18 36.3 Cioburciu 3 1335 47.38% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1199 23.98% 28.64%
25 2001-11-11 37.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1595 74.49% @ Agro Chisinau 1 1163 6.41% 19.09%