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2002-03 Divizia Nationala Season

84 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

60 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sheriff Tiraspol

5.84 points above expected

60 points · 54.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Politehnica Chisinau

8.68 points below expected

5 points · 13.68 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 19 3 2 60 64 15 +49 54.16 +5.84
2 Zimbru 24 15 5 4 50 47 20 +27 48.28 +1.72
3 Nistru Otaci 24 13 3 8 42 33 24 +9 37.77 +4.23
4 Dacia Chisinau 24 8 8 8 32 24 28 -4 30.70 +1.30
5 FC Tiraspol 24 7 5 12 26 27 38 -11 26.95 -0.95
6 Agro Chisinau 24 4 8 12 20 13 33 -20 23.22 -3.22
7 Politehnica Chisinau 24 1 2 21 5 8 58 -50 13.68 -8.68

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 60 54.16 +5.84
2 Nistru Otaci 42 37.77 +4.23
3 Zimbru 50 48.28 +1.72
4 Dacia Chisinau 32 30.70 +1.30
5 FC Tiraspol 26 26.95 -0.95

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Politehnica Chisinau 5 13.68 -8.68
2 Agro Chisinau 20 23.22 -3.22
3 FC Tiraspol 26 26.95 -0.95
4 Dacia Chisinau 32 30.70 +1.30
5 Zimbru 50 48.28 +1.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 9 Nov 3 – Apr 25 1 in 40
2 Nistru Otaci 4 May 3 – May 16 1 in 13
3 Dacia Chisinau 3 May 11 – May 29 1 in 11
4 Zimbru 5 Nov 9 – Mar 23 1 in 5
5 Agro Chisinau 2 Sep 29 – Oct 5 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Politehnica Chisinau 9 Aug 10 – Oct 26 1 in 51
2 FC Tiraspol 4 Nov 3 – Nov 24 1 in 15
3 Zimbru 2 Apr 6 – Apr 13 1 in 8
4 Dacia Chisinau 3 Sep 29 – Oct 20 1 in 5
5 Nistru Otaci 2 Sep 15 – Sep 21 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Agro Chisinau 5 Sep 11 – Oct 5 1 in 34
2 Politehnica Chisinau 2 Apr 25 – May 3 1 in 12
3 Zimbru 8 Aug 25 – Oct 26 1 in 8
4 Dacia Chisinau 5 Aug 10 – Sep 21 1 in 8
5 Nistru Otaci 4 Oct 5 – Nov 3 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Agro Chisinau 11 Mar 9 – May 29 1 in 18
2 FC Tiraspol 7 Sep 29 – Nov 24 1 in 12
3 Nistru Otaci 4 Sep 1 – Sep 21 1 in 5
4 Politehnica Chisinau 14 Nov 18 – Jun 1 1 in 5
5 Dacia Chisinau 5 Sep 29 – Nov 9 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1707 60 +0 10 11.4 -1.4
Zimbru 1550 50 +11 10 10.0 +0.0
Nistru Otaci 1442 42 +11 12 9.0 +3.0
Dacia Chisinau 1363 32 +109 10 6.1 +3.9
FC Tiraspol 1214 26 -65 5 5.1 -0.1
Agro Chisinau 1141 20 -21 3 4.1 -1.1
Politehnica Chisinau 958 5 -39 0 2.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC DC FT NO PC ST ZIM
Agro Chisinau —
0-3-1
4.22
1-1-2
4.93
0-2-2
3.33
3-1-0
7.95
0-0-4
1.73
0-1-3
2.04
Dacia Chisinau
1-3-0
6.94
 —
2-2-0
5.68
1-1-2
4.52
4-0-0
8.99
0-0-4
2.00
0-2-2
2.44
FC Tiraspol
2-1-1
6.21
0-2-2
5.47
 —
2-0-2
3.65
3-0-1
8.40
0-1-3
1.57
0-1-3
2.17
Nistru Otaci
2-2-0
7.85
2-1-1
6.63
2-0-2
7.52
 —
4-0-0
9.00
2-0-2
2.52
1-0-3
4.13
Politehnica Chisinau
0-1-3
3.23
0-0-4
2.22
1-0-3
2.79
0-0-4
2.21
 —
0-1-3
1.50
0-0-4
1.57
Sheriff Tiraspol
4-0-0
9.53
4-0-0
9.23
3-1-0
9.69
2-0-2
8.67
3-1-0
9.84
 —
3-1-0
6.81
Zimbru
3-1-0
9.18
2-2-0
8.76
3-1-0
9.03
3-0-1
7.03
4-0-0
9.73
0-1-3
4.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +9.2
Allowed 0.89 -12.4
Differential 0.99 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.90%9.52%6.55%6.55%1.79%1.79%38.10%
19.52%5.95%5.95%2.98%1.79%0.60%26.79%
26.55%5.95%1.19%1.19%0.60%0.60%16.07%
36.55%2.98%1.19%———10.71%
41.79%1.79%0.60%—1.19%—5.36%
5+1.79%0.60%0.60%———2.98%
Total38.10%26.79%16.07%10.71%5.36%2.98%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.16
CV 1.09 1.09 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 84

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.83%4.17%16.67%8.33%4.17%—54.17%
112.50%12.50%8.33%4.17%4.17%—41.67%
2———————
34.17%—————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%16.67%25.00%12.50%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.54 1.38 -0.83
SD 0.72 1.35 1.63
CV 1.33 0.98 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%——8.33%—4.17%37.50%
112.50%4.17%12.50%4.17%——33.33%
24.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%——20.83%
38.33%—————8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%12.50%16.67%16.67%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 0.98 1.43 1.83
CV 0.98 1.23 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%4.17%8.33%——29.17%
18.33%12.50%12.50%—4.17%—37.50%
216.67%4.17%——4.17%4.17%29.17%
3———————
4————4.17%—4.17%
5+———————
Total29.17%29.17%16.67%8.33%12.50%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.58 -0.46
SD 0.99 1.53 1.67
CV 0.88 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%4.17%4.17%4.17%—37.50%
116.67%4.17%—4.17%——25.00%
28.33%8.33%————16.67%
34.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total37.50%41.67%8.33%8.33%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.00 +0.38
SD 1.56 1.10 2.04
CV 1.13 1.10 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%20.83%20.83%12.50%4.17%8.33%70.83%
1—4.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%4.17%25.00%
2—4.17%————4.17%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total4.17%29.17%29.17%16.67%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.33 2.42 -2.08
SD 0.56 1.61 1.69
CV 1.69 0.67 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%————16.67%
1———————
212.50%8.33%————20.83%
320.83%8.33%4.17%———33.33%
412.50%4.17%4.17%—4.17%—25.00%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total58.33%29.17%8.33%—4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 0.62 +2.04
SD 1.52 0.97 1.71
CV 0.57 1.55 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%4.17%—4.17%——20.83%
116.67%4.17%—4.17%——25.00%
24.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%——20.83%
38.33%8.33%————16.67%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+8.33%—4.17%———12.50%
Total50.00%29.17%8.33%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.83 +1.12
SD 1.63 1.05 1.96
CV 0.83 1.26 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1707 60 54.16 +5.84 86.0% 40 45 51 54 58 62 68
Zimbru 1550 50 48.28 +1.72 65.0% 34 39 44 49 52 57 60
Nistru Otaci 1442 42 37.77 +4.23 77.0% 24 28 33 37 42 47 54
Dacia Chisinau 1363 32 30.70 +1.30 62.0% 18 20 27 31 35 39 45
FC Tiraspol 1214 26 26.95 -0.95 45.0% 12 18 24 28 30 34 42
Agro Chisinau 1141 20 23.22 -3.22 33.0% 9 15 19 23 27 32 40
Politehnica Chisinau 958 5 13.68 -8.68 3.0% 3 7 11 14 17 22 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.38%
Strong Edge
53.57%20.24%26.19%
Elo Value
Home Edge
196 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
097.62500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.50+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12347
Champion Preseason Odds
74%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 7
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.42/gm
Comfortable
00.310.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.34 * Some Luck: 4.34 to 6.51 * Lucky: 6.51 to 8.68 * Wild Swing: 8.68 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.35 * Close: 0.35 to 0.52 * Off: 0.52 to 0.7 * Way Off: 0.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 7 * As Expected: 7 to 11.2 * Several Outliers: 11.2 to 15.4 * Many Outliers: 15.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.52 points
Some Luck
05.4214
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.441
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 92.86%
86.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Politehnica Chisinau
07.14%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 7
Minimal Outliers
00.77

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 255.48
2.82
Strong Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.79
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.93
Near-Lock
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
7%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.92
Very Underconfident
01.002.19868
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.130
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567
Sheriff Tiraspol74.00%23.00%3.00%————
Zimbru24.00%64.00%12.00%————
Nistru Otaci2.00%10.00%64.00%21.00%3.00%——
Dacia Chisinau—2.00%13.00%55.00%14.00%16.00%—
FC Tiraspol—1.00%6.00%13.00%55.00%21.00%4.00%
Agro Chisinau——2.00%9.00%28.00%52.00%9.00%
Politehnica Chisinau———2.00%—11.00%87.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Agro Chisinau 91.00% 9.00%
Dacia Chisinau 100% —
FC Tiraspol 96.00% 4.00%
Nistru Otaci 100% —
Politehnica Chisinau 13.00% 87.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Zimbru 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-08-10 Agro Chisinau W 1-037.2 1306 1237 59.69% 20.94% 19.37%+0.85 +13.5 3
2002-08-10 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-137.2 1237 1306 19.37% 20.94% 59.69%-0.85 -13.5 0
2002-08-10 Nistru Otaci W 1-043.5 1285 1370 41.08% 21.46% 37.46%+0.06 +23.5 3
2002-08-10 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-143.5 1370 1285 37.46% 21.46% 41.08%-0.06 -23.5 0
2002-08-10 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-434.6 1269 1491 23.49% 21.16% 55.34%-0.64 -57.2 0
2002-08-10 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 4-034.6 1491 1269 55.34% 21.16% 23.49%+0.64 +57.2 3
2002-08-25 Dacia Chisinau D 0-053.1 1418 1308 63.51% 20.65% 15.84%+1.06 -7.5 1
2002-08-25 @ Zimbru D 0-053.1 1308 1418 15.84% 20.65% 63.51%-1.06 +7.5 4
2002-08-25 Politehnica Chisinau W 6-131.9 1346 1212 65.48% 20.45% 14.07%+1.19 +37.0 3
2002-08-25 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-631.9 1212 1346 14.07% 20.45% 65.48%-1.19 -37.0 0
2002-08-25 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-235.1 1224 1548 14.45% 20.50% 65.05%-1.16 -19.6 0
2002-08-25 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-035.1 1548 1224 65.05% 20.50% 14.45%+1.16 +19.6 6
2002-09-01 FC Tiraspol W 1-040.1 1316 1319 51.83% 21.29% 26.88%+0.48 +17.9 7
2002-09-01 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-140.1 1319 1316 26.88% 21.29% 51.83%-0.48 -17.9 3
2002-09-01 Nistru Otaci W 3-144.4 1568 1383 69.04% 20.00% 10.96%+1.44 +13.1 9
2002-09-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-344.4 1383 1568 10.96% 20.00% 69.04%-1.44 -13.1 3
2002-09-01 Zimbru L 0-532.1 1174 1411 22.00% 21.09% 56.91%-0.71 -66.7 0
2002-09-01 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 5-032.1 1411 1174 56.91% 21.09% 22.00%+0.71 +66.7 4
2002-09-11 Nistru Otaci D 0-051.4 1204 1370 30.02% 21.37% 48.61%-0.35 +2.7 1
2002-09-11 @ Agro Chisinau D 0-051.4 1370 1204 48.61% 21.37% 30.02%+0.35 -2.7 4
2002-09-11 Politehnica Chisinau W 2-030.9 1301 1108 69.61% 19.91% 10.48%+1.49 +14.5 6
2002-09-11 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-230.9 1108 1301 10.48% 19.91% 69.61%-1.49 -14.5 0
2002-09-11 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-062.7 1478 1581 38.48% 21.46% 40.06%-0.03 +0.2 5
2002-09-11 @ Zimbru D 0-062.7 1581 1478 40.06% 21.46% 38.48%+0.03 -0.2 10
2002-09-15 Agro Chisinau D 0-051.4 1334 1207 64.86% 20.52% 14.62%+1.15 -8.0 8
2002-09-15 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.4 1207 1334 14.62% 20.52% 64.86%-1.15 +8.0 2
2002-09-15 FC Tiraspol W 4-138.4 1580 1316 73.59% 19.12% 7.29%+1.85 +12.4 13
2002-09-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-438.4 1316 1580 7.29% 19.12% 73.59%-1.85 -12.4 6
2002-09-15 Zimbru L 0-146.9 1367 1478 37.43% 21.46% 41.11%-0.07 -23.5 4
2002-09-15 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-046.9 1478 1367 41.11% 21.46% 37.43%+0.07 +23.5 8
2002-09-21 Nistru Otaci W 2-038.8 1303 1344 47.16% 21.40% 31.44%+0.29 +38.5 9
2002-09-21 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-238.8 1344 1303 31.44% 21.40% 47.16%-0.29 -38.5 4
2002-09-21 Politehnica Chisinau W 3-028.1 1326 1093 71.90% 19.49% 8.61%+1.69 +17.4 11
2002-09-21 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-328.1 1093 1326 8.61% 19.49% 71.90%-1.69 -17.4 0
2002-09-21 Zimbru D 0-052.9 1215 1501 17.38% 20.79% 61.83%-0.96 +7.0 3
2002-09-21 @ Agro Chisinau D 0-052.9 1501 1215 61.83% 20.79% 17.38%+0.96 -7.0 9
2002-09-29 Agro Chisinau L 0-140.8 1076 1222 32.59% 21.42% 45.99%-0.25 -21.0 0
2002-09-29 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-040.8 1222 1076 45.99% 21.42% 32.59%+0.25 +21.0 6
2002-09-29 Dacia Chisinau W 3-035.2 1593 1343 72.85% 19.29% 7.86%+1.78 +15.9 16
2002-09-29 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-335.2 1343 1593 7.86% 19.29% 72.85%-1.78 -15.9 11
2002-09-29 FC Tiraspol W 5-241.1 1494 1342 66.83% 20.30% 12.87%+1.28 +18.7 12
2002-09-29 @ Zimbru L 2-541.1 1342 1494 12.87% 20.30% 66.83%-1.28 -18.7 9
2002-10-05 Dacia Chisinau W 3-250.8 1305 1327 49.58% 21.35% 29.07%+0.39 +17.1 7
2002-10-05 @ Nistru Otaci L 2-350.8 1327 1305 29.07% 21.35% 49.58%-0.39 -17.1 11
2002-10-05 FC Tiraspol W 3-037.6 1243 1323 41.74% 21.45% 36.81%+0.09 +63.4 9
2002-10-05 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-337.6 1323 1243 36.81% 21.45% 41.74%-0.09 -63.4 9
2002-10-05 Politehnica Chisinau W 3-025.9 1609 1055 83.39% 14.99% 1.62%+3.33 +3.1 19
2002-10-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-325.9 1055 1609 1.62% 14.99% 83.39%-3.33 -3.1 0
2002-10-20 Agro Chisinau W 2-036.0 1612 1306 75.48% 18.61% 5.91%+2.06 +8.2 22
2002-10-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-236.0 1306 1612 5.91% 18.61% 75.48%-2.06 -8.2 9
2002-10-20 Nistru Otaci L 0-331.5 1052 1322 18.75% 20.89% 60.36%-0.88 -36.0 0
2002-10-20 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 3-031.5 1322 1052 60.36% 20.89% 18.75%+0.88 +36.0 10
2002-10-20 Zimbru L 1-345.2 1310 1513 25.58% 21.25% 53.18%-0.54 -28.1 11
2002-10-20 @ Dacia Chisinau W 3-145.2 1513 1310 53.18% 21.25% 25.58%+0.54 +28.1 15
2002-10-26 Dacia Chisinau D 1-155.8 1260 1282 49.53% 21.35% 29.12%+0.39 -2.7 10
2002-10-26 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-155.8 1282 1260 29.12% 21.35% 49.53%-0.39 +2.7 12
2002-10-26 Politehnica Chisinau W 3-132.9 1541 1016 82.68% 15.43% 1.89%+3.18 +2.1 18
2002-10-26 @ Zimbru L 1-332.9 1016 1541 1.89% 15.43% 82.68%-3.18 -2.2 0
2002-10-26 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-057.8 1358 1620 19.56% 20.95% 59.49%-0.84 +35.1 13
2002-10-26 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-157.8 1620 1358 59.49% 20.95% 19.56%+0.84 -35.1 22
2002-11-03 Agro Chisinau D 1-157.1 1394 1298 62.22% 20.76% 17.02%+0.99 -6.3 14
2002-11-03 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-157.1 1298 1394 17.02% 20.76% 62.22%-0.99 +6.4 10
2002-11-03 FC Tiraspol W 2-153.5 1014 1257 21.31% 21.06% 57.64%-0.74 +32.1 3
2002-11-03 @ Politehnica Chisinau L 1-253.5 1257 1014 57.64% 21.06% 21.31%+0.74 -32.1 10
2002-11-03 Zimbru W 3-261.9 1585 1543 56.98% 21.09% 21.93%+0.71 +13.5 25
2002-11-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-361.9 1543 1585 21.93% 21.09% 56.98%-0.71 -13.5 18
2002-11-09 Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.5 1304 1285 54.56% 21.20% 24.24%+0.60 -4.6 11
2002-11-09 @ Agro Chisinau D 0-051.5 1285 1304 24.24% 21.20% 54.56%-0.60 +4.6 13
2002-11-09 Nistru Otaci W 1-041.6 1530 1387 66.09% 20.39% 13.52%+1.23 +9.8 21
2002-11-09 @ Zimbru L 0-141.6 1387 1530 13.52% 20.39% 66.09%-1.23 -9.8 14
2002-11-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-444.2 1225 1598 11.31% 20.06% 68.63%-1.41 -12.1 10
2002-11-09 @ FC Tiraspol W 4-244.2 1598 1225 68.63% 20.06% 11.31%+1.41 +12.1 28
2002-11-17 Agro Chisinau W 3-032.3 1539 1300 72.30% 19.41% 8.29%+1.72 +16.8 24
2002-11-17 @ Zimbru L 0-332.3 1300 1539 8.29% 19.41% 72.30%-1.72 -16.7 11
2002-11-17 FC Tiraspol W 2-140.4 1377 1213 67.69% 20.19% 12.12%+1.34 +8.3 17
2002-11-17 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-240.4 1213 1377 12.12% 20.19% 67.69%-1.34 -8.3 10
2002-11-18 Dacia Chisinau L 0-137.3 1046 1289 21.30% 21.06% 57.64%-0.74 -14.7 3
2002-11-18 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-037.3 1289 1046 57.64% 21.06% 21.30%+0.74 +14.7 16
2002-11-24 Politehnica Chisinau W 1-032.7 1283 1031 72.95% 19.27% 7.78%+1.79 +5.7 14
2002-11-24 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-132.7 1031 1283 7.78% 19.27% 72.95%-1.79 -5.8 3
2002-11-24 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-247.6 1304 1611 15.75% 20.64% 63.61%-1.07 -10.6 16
2002-11-24 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-147.6 1611 1304 63.61% 20.64% 15.75%+1.07 +10.6 31
2002-11-24 Zimbru L 1-242.5 1204 1556 12.62% 20.26% 67.12%-1.30 -8.6 10
2002-11-24 @ FC Tiraspol W 2-142.5 1556 1204 67.12% 20.26% 12.62%+1.30 +8.6 27
2003-03-09 Agro Chisinau W 2-040.0 1196 1289 39.94% 21.46% 38.60%+0.02 +45.3 13
2003-03-09 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-240.0 1289 1196 38.60% 21.46% 39.94%-0.02 -45.3 14
2003-03-09 Nistru Otaci D 0-052.2 1293 1386 40.00% 21.46% 38.54%+0.03 -0.2 17
2003-03-09 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-052.2 1386 1293 38.54% 21.46% 40.00%-0.03 +0.2 18
2003-03-09 Politehnica Chisinau W 6-024.7 1621 1025 84.37% 14.33% 1.30%+3.54 +4.6 34
2003-03-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-624.7 1025 1621 1.30% 14.33% 84.37%-3.54 -4.6 3
2003-03-15 Dacia Chisinau W 5-031.3 1565 1293 73.94% 19.03% 7.03%+1.89 +22.9 30
2003-03-15 @ Zimbru L 0-531.3 1293 1565 7.03% 19.03% 73.94%-1.89 -22.9 17
2003-03-15 Nistru Otaci L 0-231.4 1021 1386 11.79% 20.14% 68.07%-1.37 -16.2 3
2003-03-15 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 2-031.4 1386 1021 68.07% 20.14% 11.79%+1.37 +16.2 21
2003-03-15 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-334.1 1243 1626 10.82% 19.97% 69.21%-1.45 -21.7 14
2003-03-15 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-034.1 1626 1243 69.21% 19.97% 10.82%+1.45 +21.7 37
2003-03-23 FC Tiraspol D 0-051.1 1270 1241 55.58% 21.15% 23.26%+0.65 -4.9 18
2003-03-23 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.1 1241 1270 23.26% 21.15% 55.58%-0.65 +4.9 14
2003-03-23 Nistru Otaci W 4-038.5 1648 1402 72.61% 19.34% 8.05%+1.75 +21.3 40
2003-03-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-438.5 1402 1648 8.05% 19.34% 72.61%-1.75 -21.3 21
2003-03-23 Zimbru L 0-131.7 1004 1588 3.86% 17.49% 78.65%-2.48 -2.8 3
2003-03-23 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-031.7 1588 1004 78.65% 17.49% 3.86%+2.48 +2.8 33
2003-04-06 Nistru Otaci L 1-440.8 1222 1381 30.87% 21.39% 47.74%-0.31 -46.4 14
2003-04-06 @ Agro Chisinau W 4-140.8 1381 1222 47.74% 21.39% 30.87%+0.31 +46.4 24
2003-04-06 Politehnica Chisinau W 2-029.9 1246 1002 72.56% 19.36% 8.09%+1.75 +11.3 17
2003-04-06 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-229.9 1002 1246 8.09% 19.36% 72.56%-1.75 -11.2 3
2003-04-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-363.5 1591 1669 42.03% 21.45% 36.52%+0.10 -42.0 33
2003-04-06 @ Zimbru W 3-163.5 1669 1591 36.52% 21.45% 42.03%-0.10 +42.0 43
2003-04-13 Agro Chisinau D 0-051.0 1265 1175 61.72% 20.80% 17.49%+0.96 -6.9 19
2003-04-13 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.0 1175 1265 17.49% 20.80% 61.72%-0.96 +6.9 15
2003-04-13 FC Tiraspol W 2-036.2 1711 1257 80.72% 16.53% 2.75%+2.81 +3.7 46
2003-04-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-236.2 1257 1711 2.75% 16.53% 80.72%-2.81 -3.7 17
2003-04-13 Zimbru W 1-052.8 1427 1549 35.93% 21.45% 42.62%-0.12 +26.0 27
2003-04-13 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-152.8 1549 1427 42.62% 21.45% 35.93%+0.12 -26.0 33
2003-04-20 Nistru Otaci W 1-048.7 1254 1453 25.96% 21.26% 52.78%-0.52 +31.3 20
2003-04-20 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-148.7 1453 1254 52.78% 21.26% 25.96%+0.52 -31.3 27
2003-04-20 Politehnica Chisinau W 2-029.5 1258 990 73.75% 19.08% 7.17%+1.87 +10.0 22
2003-04-20 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-229.5 990 1258 7.17% 19.08% 73.75%-1.87 -10.0 3
2003-04-20 Zimbru L 0-233.7 1182 1523 13.36% 20.36% 66.28%-1.24 -18.2 15
2003-04-20 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-033.7 1523 1182 66.28% 20.36% 13.36%+1.24 +18.2 36
2003-04-25 Agro Chisinau D 1-155.2 980 1164 27.84% 21.32% 50.84%-0.44 +3.1 4
2003-04-25 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 1-155.2 1164 980 50.84% 21.32% 27.84%+0.44 -3.1 16
2003-04-25 Dacia Chisinau W 3-034.6 1714 1268 80.51% 16.64% 2.85%+2.78 +5.6 49
2003-04-25 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-334.6 1268 1714 2.85% 16.64% 80.51%-2.78 -5.6 22
2003-04-25 FC Tiraspol W 1-036.8 1541 1285 73.14% 19.22% 7.63%+1.80 +5.6 39
2003-04-25 @ Zimbru L 0-136.8 1285 1541 7.63% 19.22% 73.14%-1.80 -5.6 20
2003-05-03 Dacia Chisinau W 2-141.3 1422 1263 67.32% 20.24% 12.44%+1.31 +8.5 30
2003-05-03 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-241.3 1263 1422 12.44% 20.24% 67.32%-1.31 -8.5 22
2003-05-03 FC Tiraspol D 1-155.4 1161 1279 36.33% 21.45% 42.22%-0.11 +0.8 17
2003-05-03 @ Agro Chisinau D 1-155.4 1279 1161 42.22% 21.45% 36.33%+0.11 -0.8 21
2003-05-03 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-054.4 983 1720 1.73% 15.18% 83.08%-3.26 +13.4 5
2003-05-03 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 0-054.4 1720 983 83.08% 15.18% 1.73%+3.26 -13.4 50
2003-05-07 Agro Chisinau W 4-028.9 1707 1162 83.17% 15.13% 1.70%+3.28 +4.2 53
2003-05-07 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-428.9 1162 1707 1.70% 15.13% 83.17%-3.28 -4.2 17
2003-05-07 Dacia Chisinau D 2-265.0 1546 1254 74.89% 18.78% 6.33%+1.99 -7.6 40
2003-05-07 @ Zimbru D 2-265.0 1254 1546 6.33% 18.78% 74.89%-1.99 +7.6 23
2003-05-07 Politehnica Chisinau W 2-027.8 1431 997 80.13% 16.82% 3.04%+2.71 +4.1 33
2003-05-07 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-227.8 997 1431 3.04% 16.82% 80.13%-2.71 -4.1 5
2003-05-11 Dacia Chisinau L 0-342.7 1279 1262 54.23% 21.21% 24.56%+0.58 -88.0 21
2003-05-11 @ FC Tiraspol W 3-042.7 1262 1279 24.56% 21.21% 54.23%-0.58 +88.0 26
2003-05-11 Politehnica Chisinau W 4-129.8 1539 993 83.20% 15.11% 1.69%+3.29 +2.7 43
2003-05-11 @ Zimbru L 1-429.8 993 1539 1.69% 15.11% 83.20%-3.29 -2.7 5
2003-05-11 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-063.9 1435 1711 18.25% 20.86% 60.90%-0.91 +35.9 36
2003-05-11 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-163.9 1711 1435 60.90% 20.86% 18.25%+0.91 -35.9 53
2003-05-16 Agro Chisinau W 3-135.4 1471 1158 75.80% 18.51% 5.69%+2.10 +6.8 39
2003-05-16 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-335.4 1158 1471 5.69% 18.51% 75.80%-2.10 -6.8 17
2003-05-16 FC Tiraspol L 1-244.0 990 1191 25.85% 21.26% 52.89%-0.53 -16.4 5
2003-05-16 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 2-144.0 1191 990 52.89% 21.26% 25.85%+0.53 +16.4 24
2003-05-16 Zimbru W 3-046.5 1675 1542 65.40% 20.46% 14.14%+1.18 +27.9 56
2003-05-16 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-346.5 1542 1675 14.14% 20.46% 65.40%-1.18 -27.9 43
2003-05-24 Dacia Chisinau L 1-244.4 1151 1350 26.03% 21.26% 52.71%-0.52 -16.5 17
2003-05-24 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-144.4 1350 1151 52.71% 21.26% 26.03%+0.52 +16.5 29
2003-05-24 Nistru Otaci W 3-042.2 1514 1477 56.38% 21.12% 22.51%+0.68 +42.2 46
2003-05-24 @ Zimbru L 0-342.2 1477 1514 22.51% 21.12% 56.38%-0.68 -42.2 39
2003-05-24 Sheriff Tiraspol D 4-473.4 1207 1703 6.06% 18.67% 75.27%-2.03 +5.6 25
2003-05-24 @ FC Tiraspol D 4-473.4 1703 1207 75.27% 18.67% 6.06%+2.03 -5.6 57
2003-05-29 Agro Chisinau W 2-137.6 1556 1134 79.76% 17.00% 3.24%+2.65 +2.2 49
2003-05-29 @ Zimbru L 1-237.6 1134 1556 3.24% 17.00% 79.76%-2.65 -2.2 17
2003-05-29 Dacia Chisinau L 1-239.0 974 1366 10.28% 19.87% 69.85%-1.51 -7.1 5
2003-05-29 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 2-139.0 1366 974 69.85% 19.87% 10.28%+1.51 +7.1 32
2003-05-29 FC Tiraspol W 1-034.4 1435 1213 71.36% 19.60% 9.04%+1.64 +6.7 42
2003-05-29 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-134.4 1213 1435 9.04% 19.60% 71.36%-1.64 -6.7 25
2003-06-01 Politehnica Chisinau W 1-034.1 1132 967 67.76% 20.18% 12.06%+1.34 +8.8 20
2003-06-01 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-134.1 967 1132 12.06% 20.18% 67.76%-1.34 -8.8 5
2003-06-01 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-252.9 1373 1697 14.47% 20.50% 65.03%-1.16 -9.8 32
2003-06-01 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-152.9 1697 1373 65.03% 20.50% 14.47%+1.16 +9.8 60
2003-06-01 Zimbru D 1-158.4 1206 1558 12.59% 20.26% 67.15%-1.30 +7.9 26
2003-06-01 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-158.4 1558 1206 67.15% 20.26% 12.59%+1.30 -7.9 50

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-05-11 18.25% @ Nistru Otaci 1435 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1711 0
2 2002-10-26 19.56% @ Nistru Otaci 1358 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1620 0
3 2002-11-03 21.31% @ Politehnica Chisinau 1014 2 FC Tiraspol 1257 1
4 2003-05-11 24.56% Dacia Chisinau 1262 3 @ FC Tiraspol 1279 0
5 2003-04-20 25.96% @ FC Tiraspol 1254 1 Nistru Otaci 1453 0
6 2003-04-13 35.93% @ Nistru Otaci 1427 1 Zimbru 1549 0
7 2003-04-06 36.52% Sheriff Tiraspol 1669 3 @ Zimbru 1591 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-05-11 87.98 Dacia Chisinau 3 1262 24.56% @ FC Tiraspol 0 1279 54.23% 21.21%
2 2002-09-01 66.69 Zimbru 5 1411 56.91% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1174 22.00% 21.09%
3 2002-10-05 63.42 @ Agro Chisinau 3 1243 41.74% FC Tiraspol 0 1323 36.81% 21.45%
4 2002-08-10 57.25 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1491 55.34% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1269 23.49% 21.16%
5 2003-04-06 46.42 Nistru Otaci 4 1381 47.74% @ Agro Chisinau 1 1222 30.87% 21.39%
6 2003-03-09 45.34 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1196 39.94% Agro Chisinau 0 1289 38.60% 21.46%
7 2003-05-24 42.24 @ Zimbru 3 1514 56.38% Nistru Otaci 0 1477 22.51% 21.12%
8 2003-04-06 42.02 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1669 36.52% @ Zimbru 1 1591 42.03% 21.45%
9 2002-09-21 38.47 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1303 47.16% Nistru Otaci 0 1344 31.44% 21.40%
10 2002-08-25 37.04 @ Nistru Otaci 6 1346 65.48% Politehnica Chisinau 1 1212 14.07% 20.45%
11 2002-10-20 36.01 Nistru Otaci 3 1322 60.36% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1052 18.75% 20.89%
12 2003-05-11 35.91 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1435 18.25% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1711 60.90% 20.86%
13 2002-10-26 35.09 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1358 19.56% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1620 59.49% 20.95%
14 2002-11-03 32.09 @ Politehnica Chisinau 2 1014 21.31% FC Tiraspol 1 1257 57.64% 21.06%
15 2003-04-20 31.33 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1254 25.96% Nistru Otaci 0 1453 52.78% 21.26%
16 2002-10-20 28.09 Zimbru 3 1513 53.18% @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1310 25.58% 21.25%
17 2003-05-16 27.91 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1675 65.40% Zimbru 0 1542 14.14% 20.46%
18 2003-04-13 26.03 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1427 35.93% Zimbru 0 1549 42.62% 21.45%
19 2002-08-10 23.48 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1285 41.08% Nistru Otaci 0 1370 37.46% 21.46%
20 2002-09-15 23.47 Zimbru 1 1478 41.11% @ Nistru Otaci 0 1367 37.43% 21.46%
21 2003-03-15 22.90 @ Zimbru 5 1565 73.94% Dacia Chisinau 0 1293 7.03% 19.03%
22 2003-03-15 21.71 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1626 69.21% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1243 10.82% 19.97%
23 2003-03-23 21.27 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1648 72.61% Nistru Otaci 0 1402 8.05% 19.34%
24 2002-09-29 21.01 Agro Chisinau 1 1222 45.99% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1076 32.59% 21.42%
25 2002-08-25 19.61 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1548 65.05% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1224 14.45% 20.50%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-05-24 73.4 @ FC Tiraspol 4 1207 6.06% Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1703 75.27% 18.67%
2 2003-05-07 65.0 @ Zimbru 2 1546 74.89% Dacia Chisinau 2 1254 6.33% 18.78%
3 2003-05-11 63.9 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1435 18.25% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1711 60.90% 20.86%
4 2003-04-06 63.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1669 36.52% @ Zimbru 1 1591 42.03% 21.45%
5 2002-09-11 62.7 @ Zimbru 0 1478 38.48% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1581 40.06% 21.46%
6 2002-11-03 61.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1585 56.98% Zimbru 2 1543 21.93% 21.09%
7 2003-06-01 58.4 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1206 12.59% Zimbru 1 1558 67.15% 20.26%
8 2002-10-26 57.8 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1358 19.56% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1620 59.49% 20.95%
9 2002-11-03 57.1 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1394 62.22% Agro Chisinau 1 1298 17.02% 20.76%
10 2002-10-26 55.8 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1260 49.53% Dacia Chisinau 1 1282 29.12% 21.35%
11 2003-05-03 55.4 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1161 36.33% FC Tiraspol 1 1279 42.22% 21.45%
12 2003-04-25 55.2 @ Politehnica Chisinau 1 980 27.84% Agro Chisinau 1 1164 50.84% 21.32%
13 2003-05-03 54.4 @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 983 1.73% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1720 83.08% 15.18%
14 2002-11-03 53.5 @ Politehnica Chisinau 2 1014 21.31% FC Tiraspol 1 1257 57.64% 21.06%
15 2002-08-25 53.1 @ Zimbru 0 1418 63.51% Dacia Chisinau 0 1308 15.84% 20.65%
16 2002-09-21 52.9 @ Agro Chisinau 0 1215 17.38% Zimbru 0 1501 61.83% 20.79%
17 2003-06-01 52.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1697 65.03% @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1373 14.47% 20.50%
18 2003-04-13 52.8 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1427 35.93% Zimbru 0 1549 42.62% 21.45%
19 2003-03-09 52.2 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1293 40.00% Nistru Otaci 0 1386 38.54% 21.46%
20 2002-11-09 51.5 @ Agro Chisinau 0 1304 54.56% Dacia Chisinau 0 1285 24.24% 21.20%
21 2002-09-11 51.4 @ Agro Chisinau 0 1204 30.02% Nistru Otaci 0 1370 48.61% 21.37%
22 2002-09-15 51.4 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1334 64.86% Agro Chisinau 0 1207 14.62% 20.52%
23 2003-03-23 51.1 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1270 55.58% FC Tiraspol 0 1241 23.26% 21.15%
24 2003-04-13 51.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1265 61.72% Agro Chisinau 0 1175 17.49% 20.80%
25 2002-10-05 50.8 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1305 49.58% Dacia Chisinau 2 1327 29.07% 21.35%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-03-09 24.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1621 84.37% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1025 1.30% 14.33%
2 2002-10-05 25.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1609 83.39% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1055 1.62% 14.99%
3 2003-05-07 27.8 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1431 80.13% Politehnica Chisinau 0 997 3.04% 16.82%
4 2002-09-21 28.1 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1326 71.90% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1093 8.61% 19.49%
5 2003-05-07 28.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1707 83.17% Agro Chisinau 0 1162 1.70% 15.13%
6 2003-04-20 29.5 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1258 73.75% Politehnica Chisinau 0 990 7.17% 19.08%
7 2003-05-11 29.8 @ Zimbru 4 1539 83.20% Politehnica Chisinau 1 993 1.69% 15.11%
8 2003-04-06 29.9 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1246 72.56% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1002 8.09% 19.36%
9 2002-09-11 30.9 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1301 69.61% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1108 10.48% 19.91%
10 2003-03-15 31.3 @ Zimbru 5 1565 73.94% Dacia Chisinau 0 1293 7.03% 19.03%
11 2003-03-15 31.4 Nistru Otaci 2 1386 68.07% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1021 11.79% 20.14%
12 2002-10-20 31.5 Nistru Otaci 3 1322 60.36% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1052 18.75% 20.89%
13 2003-03-23 31.7 Zimbru 1 1588 78.65% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1004 3.86% 17.49%
14 2002-08-25 31.9 @ Nistru Otaci 6 1346 65.48% Politehnica Chisinau 1 1212 14.07% 20.45%
15 2002-09-01 32.1 Zimbru 5 1411 56.91% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1174 22.00% 21.09%
16 2002-11-17 32.3 @ Zimbru 3 1539 72.30% Agro Chisinau 0 1300 8.29% 19.41%
17 2002-11-24 32.7 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1283 72.95% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1031 7.78% 19.27%
18 2002-10-26 32.9 @ Zimbru 3 1541 82.68% Politehnica Chisinau 1 1016 1.89% 15.43%
19 2003-04-20 33.7 Zimbru 2 1523 66.28% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1182 13.36% 20.36%
20 2003-03-15 34.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1626 69.21% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1243 10.82% 19.97%
21 2003-06-01 34.1 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1132 67.76% Politehnica Chisinau 0 967 12.06% 20.18%
22 2003-05-29 34.4 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1435 71.36% FC Tiraspol 0 1213 9.04% 19.60%
23 2002-08-10 34.6 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1491 55.34% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1269 23.49% 21.16%
24 2003-04-25 34.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1714 80.51% Dacia Chisinau 0 1268 2.85% 16.64%
25 2002-08-25 35.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1548 65.05% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1224 14.45% 20.50%