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2003-04 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

65 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FC Tiraspol

7.64 points above expected

45 points · 37.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Agro Chisinau

11.18 points below expected

5 points · 16.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 20 5 3 65 50 16 +34 63.79 +1.21
2 Nistru Otaci 28 17 6 5 57 47 26 +21 52.64 +4.36
3 Zimbru 28 14 7 7 49 40 23 +17 49.83 -0.83
4 FC Tiraspol 28 12 9 7 45 32 22 +10 37.36 +7.64
5 Dacia Chisinau 28 9 8 11 35 26 28 -2 38.85 -3.85
6 Tiligul 28 5 14 9 29 21 26 -5 30.94 -1.94
7 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 28 6 5 17 23 29 52 -23 21.41 +1.59
8 Agro Chisinau 28 1 2 25 5 14 66 -52 16.18 -11.18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Tiraspol 45 37.36 +7.64
2 Nistru Otaci 57 52.64 +4.36
3 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 23 21.41 +1.59
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 65 63.79 +1.21
5 Zimbru 49 49.83 -0.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Agro Chisinau 5 16.18 -11.18
2 Dacia Chisinau 35 38.85 -3.85
3 Tiligul 29 30.94 -1.94
4 Zimbru 49 49.83 -0.83
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 65 63.79 +1.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nistru Otaci 6 Nov 9 – Apr 17 1 in 14
2 FC Tiraspol 3 May 16 – May 26 1 in 9
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 Aug 10 – Sep 5 1 in 8
4 Agro Chisinau 1 Jun 13 – Jun 13 1 in 5
5 Dacia Chisinau 2 Oct 5 – Oct 15 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Agro Chisinau 11 Aug 10 – Oct 19 1 in 402
2 Dacia Chisinau 3 May 7 – May 22 1 in 36
3 Zimbru 3 Oct 17 – Oct 26 1 in 24
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Sep 14 – Sep 14 1 in 6
5 Tiligul 2 Nov 1 – Nov 9 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tiligul 7 Sep 13 – Oct 29 1 in 119
2 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 4 May 2 – May 22 1 in 55
3 Dacia Chisinau 6 Mar 24 – May 2 1 in 12
4 Zimbru 7 Apr 10 – May 22 1 in 12
5 Nistru Otaci 8 Sep 1 – Oct 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nistru Otaci 5 Apr 23 – May 22 1 in 70
2 Agro Chisinau 27 Aug 10 – Jun 9 1 in 51
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 Oct 26 – Nov 1 1 in 13
4 Dacia Chisinau 5 Aug 10 – Sep 5 1 in 13
5 Zimbru 4 Oct 17 – Oct 29 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1676 65 +22 12 11.2 +0.8
Nistru Otaci 1520 57 -37 9 8.4 +0.6
Zimbru 1539 49 +50 12 8.7 +3.3
FC Tiraspol 1426 45 +30 10 7.9 +2.1
Dacia Chisinau 1345 35 -40 4 7.6 -3.6
Tiligul 1272 29 -17 3 4.9 -1.9
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1133 23 -37 4 4.8 -0.8
Agro Chisinau 1020 5 +30 3 1.9 +1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC DC FT NO ST TIL UC ZIM
Agro Chisinau —
0-0-4
2.18
0-0-4
2.75
0-0-4
1.62
0-1-3
0.85
0-0-4
3.60
1-0-3
4.18
0-1-3
1.61
Dacia Chisinau
4-0-0
8.95
 —
1-2-1
6.00
1-0-3
3.47
0-0-4
2.31
0-4-0
6.88
2-1-1
8.21
1-1-2
3.87
FC Tiraspol
4-0-0
8.34
1-2-1
4.95
 —
1-0-3
3.48
1-0-3
2.10
1-3-0
6.77
3-1-0
8.03
1-3-0
3.31
Nistru Otaci
4-0-0
9.64
3-0-1
7.52
3-0-1
7.51
 —
1-2-1
3.54
1-3-0
8.36
3-1-0
9.30
2-0-2
5.78
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-1-0
10.60
4-0-0
8.78
3-0-1
9.02
1-2-1
7.45
 —
3-1-0
9.57
3-1-0
10.15
3-0-1
7.82
Tiligul
4-0-0
7.42
0-4-0
4.08
0-3-1
4.19
0-3-1
2.70
0-1-3
1.63
 —
1-1-2
7.36
0-2-2
3.11
Unisport-Auto Chisinau
3-0-1
6.79
1-1-2
2.82
0-1-3
2.99
0-1-3
1.86
0-1-3
1.17
2-1-1
3.62
 —
0-0-4
1.97
Zimbru
3-1-0
9.59
2-1-1
7.10
0-3-1
7.70
2-0-2
5.17
1-0-3
3.20
2-2-0
7.92
4-0-0
9.17
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +14.6
Allowed 0.78 -10.0
Differential 0.97 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%8.48%9.82%4.91%—1.34%38.84%
18.48%8.04%6.70%1.79%0.89%0.89%26.79%
29.82%6.70%1.79%1.79%0.45%—20.54%
34.91%1.79%1.79%0.89%0.45%—9.82%
4—0.89%0.45%0.45%——1.79%
5+1.34%0.89%————2.23%
Total38.84%26.79%20.54%9.82%1.79%2.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.16 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.82
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%17.86%17.86%10.71%—10.71%60.71%
1—3.57%14.29%7.14%—3.57%28.57%
23.57%——3.57%3.57%—10.71%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%32.14%21.43%3.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.36 -1.86
SD 0.69 1.45 1.58
CV 1.39 0.61 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%17.86%3.57%3.57%——42.86%
110.71%7.14%10.71%—3.57%—32.14%
27.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total39.29%32.14%21.43%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.00 -0.07
SD 1.02 1.05 1.44
CV 1.09 1.05 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%3.57%14.29%3.57%——46.43%
17.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
27.14%17.86%————25.00%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total46.43%32.14%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.79 +0.36
SD 1.43 0.88 1.81
CV 1.25 1.11 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—3.57%3.57%——14.29%
121.43%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—42.86%
210.71%10.71%—3.57%——25.00%
33.57%—————3.57%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total46.43%32.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 0.93 +0.75
SD 1.39 1.15 1.82
CV 0.83 1.24 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
110.71%10.71%3.57%———25.00%
225.00%14.29%————39.29%
317.86%3.57%—3.57%——25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total57.14%32.14%7.14%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 0.57 +1.21
SD 0.96 0.79 1.34
CV 0.54 1.38 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
032.14%10.71%7.14%3.57%——53.57%
13.57%10.71%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total46.43%21.43%25.00%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 0.93 -0.18
SD 0.97 1.02 1.28
CV 1.29 1.09 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%14.29%10.71%——39.29%
110.71%7.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%35.71%
2—3.57%—7.14%——10.71%
3—3.57%—3.57%3.57%—10.71%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total17.86%21.43%28.57%25.00%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.86 -0.82
SD 1.14 1.30 1.54
CV 1.10 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%7.14%14.29%3.57%——42.86%
13.57%3.57%————7.14%
217.86%3.57%3.57%———25.00%
37.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total50.00%21.43%25.00%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.82 +0.61
SD 1.48 0.94 1.89
CV 1.03 1.15 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1676 65 63.79 +1.21 66.0% 51 55 60 63 67 73 79
Zimbru 1539 49 49.83 -0.83 47.0% 27 40 47 50 53 57 64
Nistru Otaci 1520 57 52.64 +4.36 81.0% 33 41 50 53 56 62 69
FC Tiraspol 1426 45 37.36 +7.64 92.0% 23 27 33 37 42 46 52
Dacia Chisinau 1345 35 38.85 -3.85 29.0% 24 29 35 39 42 48 57
Tiligul 1272 29 30.94 -1.94 39.0% 16 22 27 31 35 41 46
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1133 23 21.41 +1.59 73.0% 9 12 18 21 24 31 39
Agro Chisinau 1020 5 16.18 -11.18 0.0% 7 8 14 16 18 24 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.07%
Strong Edge
45.54%25.00%29.46%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 56.33 Elo pts.
246 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.2
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
93%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.350.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.54 * Some Luck: 4.54 to 6.81 * Lucky: 6.81 to 9.08 * Wild Swing: 9.08 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.39 * Close: 0.39 to 0.58 * Off: 0.58 to 0.77 * Way Off: 0.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.30 points
Some Luck
05.6814
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.481
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.00%
FC Tiraspol
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Agro Chisinau
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 219.33
2.80
Strong Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
84%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.93
Near-Lock
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.27
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.157
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1490.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol93.00%7.00%——————
Nistru Otaci5.00%55.00%31.00%7.00%—2.00%——
Zimbru2.00%35.00%51.00%11.00%——1.00%—
FC Tiraspol——11.00%32.00%39.00%16.00%2.00%—
Dacia Chisinau—3.00%7.00%44.00%32.00%12.00%2.00%—
Tiligul———5.00%26.00%58.00%8.00%3.00%
Unisport-Auto Chisinau———1.00%3.00%9.00%60.00%27.00%
Agro Chisinau—————3.00%27.00%70.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dacia Chisinau 98.00% 2.00% —
FC Tiraspol 98.00% 2.00% —
Nistru Otaci 100% — —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% — —
Zimbru 99.00% 1.00% —
Tiligul 89.00% 8.00% 3.00%
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 13.00% 60.00% 27.00%
Agro Chisinau 3.00% 27.00% 70.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-08-09 FC Tiraspol D 0-053.7 1515 1286 67.74% 22.36% 9.89%+1.16 -6.3 1
2003-08-09 @ Zimbru D 0-053.7 1286 1515 9.89% 22.36% 67.74%-1.16 +6.3 1
2003-08-10 Dacia Chisinau W 2-149.3 1621 1385 68.18% 22.21% 9.61%+1.19 +4.6 3
2003-08-10 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-249.3 1385 1621 9.61% 22.21% 68.18%-1.19 -4.6 0
2003-08-10 Tiligul L 2-354.7 1230 1267 40.09% 26.48% 33.43%+0.08 -15.3 0
2003-08-10 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-254.7 1267 1230 33.43% 26.48% 40.09%-0.08 +15.3 3
2003-08-10 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 4-346.8 1439 1189 69.12% 21.85% 9.02%+1.24 +4.0 3
2003-08-10 @ Nistru Otaci L 3-446.8 1189 1439 9.02% 21.85% 69.12%-1.24 -4.0 0
2003-08-16 Dacia Chisinau D 0-050.4 1292 1380 32.81% 26.46% 40.73%-0.13 +0.8 2
2003-08-16 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-050.4 1380 1292 40.73% 26.46% 32.81%+0.13 -0.8 1
2003-08-16 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-330.0 1185 1625 6.48% 19.90% 73.62%-1.56 -8.8 0
2003-08-16 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-030.0 1625 1185 73.62% 19.90% 6.48%+1.56 +8.9 6
2003-08-17 Agro Chisinau W 2-030.8 1509 1215 72.05% 20.63% 7.31%+1.43 +7.0 4
2003-08-17 @ Zimbru L 0-230.8 1215 1509 7.31% 20.63% 72.05%-1.43 -7.0 0
2003-08-17 Nistru Otaci D 1-156.4 1282 1443 23.96% 25.96% 50.09%-0.43 +2.3 4
2003-08-17 @ Tiligul D 1-156.4 1443 1282 50.09% 25.96% 23.96%+0.43 -2.3 4
2003-08-24 FC Tiraspol L 1-247.9 1208 1293 33.29% 26.47% 40.24%-0.12 -14.1 0
2003-08-24 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-147.9 1293 1208 40.24% 26.47% 33.29%+0.12 +14.0 5
2003-08-24 Tiligul W 3-140.4 1634 1284 75.34% 19.03% 5.63%+1.65 +4.5 9
2003-08-24 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-340.4 1284 1634 5.63% 19.03% 75.34%-1.65 -4.5 4
2003-08-24 Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 1-155.7 1379 1176 65.75% 23.03% 11.22%+1.06 -5.3 2
2003-08-24 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-155.7 1176 1379 11.22% 23.03% 65.75%-1.06 +5.3 1
2003-08-24 Zimbru L 0-246.9 1440 1516 34.54% 26.49% 38.96%-0.08 -28.9 4
2003-08-24 @ Nistru Otaci W 2-046.9 1516 1440 38.96% 26.49% 34.54%+0.08 +28.9 7
2003-08-31 Dacia Chisinau D 2-261.2 1280 1374 31.99% 26.44% 41.57%-0.15 +0.6 5
2003-08-31 @ Tiligul D 2-261.2 1374 1280 41.57% 26.44% 31.99%+0.15 -0.6 3
2003-08-31 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-030.9 1307 1182 59.08% 24.70% 16.21%+0.74 +22.5 8
2003-08-31 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-330.9 1182 1307 16.21% 24.70% 59.08%-0.74 -22.5 1
2003-09-01 Nistru Otaci L 1-535.2 1194 1411 18.44% 25.18% 56.37%-0.66 -27.5 0
2003-09-01 @ Agro Chisinau W 5-135.2 1411 1194 56.37% 25.18% 18.44%+0.66 +27.5 7
2003-09-01 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-351.7 1545 1639 32.05% 26.44% 41.51%-0.15 -39.6 7
2003-09-01 @ Zimbru W 3-051.7 1639 1545 41.51% 26.44% 32.05%+0.15 +39.7 12
2003-09-04 Tiligul W 2-151.2 1159 1280 28.54% 26.30% 45.16%-0.26 +17.8 4
2003-09-04 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 1-251.2 1280 1159 45.16% 26.30% 28.54%+0.26 -17.8 5
2003-09-05 Agro Chisinau W 2-139.3 1678 1166 83.09% 14.32% 2.59%+2.31 +1.1 15
2003-09-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-239.3 1166 1678 2.59% 14.32% 83.09%-2.31 -1.1 0
2003-09-05 FC Tiraspol W 2-035.9 1439 1329 57.61% 24.98% 17.41%+0.68 +16.5 10
2003-09-05 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-235.9 1329 1439 17.41% 24.98% 57.61%-0.68 -16.5 8
2003-09-05 Zimbru L 1-251.3 1373 1505 27.26% 26.23% 46.51%-0.31 -12.0 3
2003-09-05 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-151.3 1505 1373 46.51% 26.23% 27.26%+0.31 +12.0 10
2003-09-13 Tiligul D 0-049.8 1313 1263 51.19% 25.85% 22.96%+0.43 -2.8 9
2003-09-13 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-049.8 1263 1313 22.96% 25.85% 51.19%-0.43 +2.8 6
2003-09-13 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-033.0 1517 1177 74.80% 19.31% 5.89%+1.61 +2.9 13
2003-09-13 @ Zimbru L 0-133.0 1177 1517 5.89% 19.31% 74.80%-1.61 -2.9 4
2003-09-14 Dacia Chisinau L 1-243.8 1165 1361 20.38% 25.51% 54.11%-0.57 -9.5 0
2003-09-14 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-143.8 1361 1165 54.11% 25.51% 20.38%+0.57 +9.5 6
2003-09-14 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-062.9 1455 1679 17.90% 25.08% 57.02%-0.68 +23.1 13
2003-09-14 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-162.9 1679 1455 57.02% 25.08% 17.90%+0.68 -23.1 15
2003-09-21 Agro Chisinau W 4-245.3 1174 1156 47.35% 26.17% 26.48%+0.30 +18.2 7
2003-09-21 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 2-445.3 1156 1174 26.48% 26.17% 47.35%-0.30 -18.2 0
2003-09-21 FC Tiraspol W 2-036.4 1656 1310 75.15% 19.13% 5.72%+1.64 +5.3 18
2003-09-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-236.4 1310 1656 5.72% 19.13% 75.15%-1.64 -5.3 9
2003-09-21 Nistru Otaci L 0-145.4 1371 1479 30.25% 26.38% 43.37%-0.21 -13.9 6
2003-09-21 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-045.4 1479 1371 43.37% 26.38% 30.25%+0.21 +13.9 16
2003-09-27 Agro Chisinau W 2-032.6 1265 1138 59.36% 24.65% 15.99%+0.75 +15.3 9
2003-09-27 @ Tiligul L 0-232.6 1138 1265 15.99% 24.65% 59.36%-0.75 -15.3 0
2003-09-27 Nistru Otaci L 1-242.1 1192 1492 12.51% 23.56% 63.93%-0.99 -6.1 7
2003-09-27 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-142.1 1492 1192 63.93% 23.56% 12.51%+0.99 +6.1 19
2003-09-27 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-250.9 1357 1662 12.25% 23.46% 64.29%-1.01 -5.9 6
2003-09-27 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-150.9 1662 1357 64.29% 23.46% 12.25%+1.01 +5.9 21
2003-09-28 Zimbru W 2-048.9 1305 1520 18.61% 25.22% 56.17%-0.65 +42.9 12
2003-09-28 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-248.9 1520 1305 56.17% 25.22% 18.61%+0.65 -42.9 13
2003-10-05 FC Tiraspol W 1-041.8 1351 1347 45.50% 26.28% 28.22%+0.24 +13.1 9
2003-10-05 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-141.8 1347 1351 28.22% 26.28% 45.50%-0.24 -13.1 12
2003-10-05 Tiligul D 0-053.2 1498 1281 66.86% 22.67% 10.47%+1.12 -6.2 20
2003-10-05 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-053.2 1281 1498 10.47% 22.67% 66.86%-1.12 +6.1 10
2003-10-05 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-140.0 1668 1186 81.80% 15.19% 3.01%+2.19 +1.3 24
2003-10-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-240.0 1186 1668 3.01% 15.19% 81.80%-2.19 -1.3 7
2003-10-05 Zimbru L 1-336.5 1122 1477 9.66% 22.23% 68.10%-1.22 -8.1 0
2003-10-05 @ Agro Chisinau W 3-136.5 1477 1122 68.10% 22.23% 9.66%+1.22 +8.1 16
2003-10-15 Agro Chisinau W 1-033.8 1334 1114 67.04% 22.61% 10.35%+1.13 +5.3 15
2003-10-15 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-133.8 1114 1334 10.35% 22.61% 67.04%-1.13 -5.3 0
2003-10-15 Dacia Chisinau L 0-235.2 1185 1364 22.01% 25.74% 52.25%-0.50 -20.2 7
2003-10-15 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-035.2 1364 1185 52.25% 25.74% 22.01%+0.50 +20.2 12
2003-10-15 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-058.7 1287 1669 8.51% 21.52% 69.97%-1.33 +6.8 11
2003-10-15 @ Tiligul D 0-058.7 1669 1287 69.97% 21.52% 8.51%+1.33 -6.8 25
2003-10-17 Nistru Otaci L 0-250.5 1485 1492 44.10% 26.35% 29.55%+0.20 -34.8 16
2003-10-17 @ Zimbru W 2-050.5 1492 1485 29.55% 26.35% 44.10%-0.20 +34.8 23
2003-10-19 Agro Chisinau W 1-031.1 1527 1109 78.90% 17.02% 4.07%+1.93 +1.9 26
2003-10-19 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-131.1 1109 1527 4.07% 17.02% 78.90%-1.93 -1.9 0
2003-10-19 FC Tiraspol D 0-049.5 1165 1340 22.46% 25.79% 51.75%-0.48 +3.0 8
2003-10-19 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-049.5 1340 1165 51.75% 25.79% 22.46%+0.48 -3.0 16
2003-10-19 Zimbru W 1-047.6 1662 1451 66.41% 22.82% 10.78%+1.09 +5.5 28
2003-10-19 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-147.6 1451 1662 10.78% 22.82% 66.41%-1.09 -5.5 16
2003-10-20 Tiligul D 0-050.8 1384 1294 55.69% 25.29% 19.02%+0.60 -3.8 13
2003-10-20 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-050.8 1294 1384 19.02% 25.29% 55.69%-0.60 +3.8 12
2003-10-26 Dacia Chisinau L 0-151.4 1445 1381 52.82% 25.67% 21.51%+0.49 -21.5 16
2003-10-26 @ Zimbru W 1-051.4 1381 1445 21.51% 25.67% 52.82%-0.49 +21.5 16
2003-10-26 Nistru Otaci W 2-158.6 1337 1529 20.73% 25.56% 53.70%-0.55 +20.6 19
2003-10-26 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-258.6 1529 1337 53.70% 25.56% 20.73%+0.55 -20.6 26
2003-10-26 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-160.1 1107 1668 3.66% 16.37% 79.97%-2.05 +7.4 1
2003-10-26 @ Agro Chisinau D 1-160.1 1668 1107 79.97% 16.37% 3.66%+2.05 -7.4 29
2003-10-26 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-036.1 1297 1168 59.54% 24.61% 15.85%+0.76 +8.0 15
2003-10-26 @ Tiligul L 0-136.1 1168 1297 15.85% 24.61% 59.54%-0.76 -8.0 8
2003-10-29 Zimbru D 0-051.2 1305 1423 28.94% 26.32% 44.73%-0.25 +1.5 16
2003-10-29 @ Tiligul D 0-051.2 1423 1305 44.73% 26.32% 28.94%+0.25 -1.5 17
2003-11-01 Agro Chisinau W 1-032.6 1402 1114 71.66% 20.81% 7.53%+1.40 +3.8 19
2003-11-01 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-132.6 1114 1402 7.53% 20.81% 71.66%-1.40 -3.8 1
2003-11-01 FC Tiraspol L 1-250.4 1307 1357 38.15% 26.50% 35.35%+0.02 -15.5 16
2003-11-01 @ Tiligul W 2-150.4 1357 1307 35.35% 26.50% 38.15%-0.02 +15.5 22
2003-11-01 Nistru Otaci D 1-170.3 1660 1508 61.54% 24.18% 14.29%+0.85 -4.5 30
2003-11-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-170.3 1508 1660 14.29% 24.18% 61.54%-0.85 +4.5 27
2003-11-01 Zimbru L 0-330.8 1160 1422 14.95% 24.37% 60.68%-0.84 -20.9 8
2003-11-01 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-030.8 1422 1160 60.68% 24.37% 14.95%+0.84 +20.9 20
2003-11-09 Dacia Chisinau W 4-142.8 1513 1406 57.33% 25.03% 17.65%+0.66 +20.5 30
2003-11-09 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-442.8 1406 1513 17.65% 25.03% 57.33%-0.66 -20.5 19
2003-11-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-242.5 1373 1656 13.56% 23.94% 62.49%-0.92 -13.1 22
2003-11-09 @ FC Tiraspol W 2-042.5 1656 1373 62.49% 23.94% 13.56%+0.92 +13.1 33
2003-11-09 Tiligul W 3-032.1 1443 1291 61.49% 24.19% 14.32%+0.85 +20.1 23
2003-11-09 @ Zimbru L 0-332.1 1291 1443 14.32% 24.19% 61.49%-0.85 -20.1 16
2003-11-09 Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 0-143.9 1111 1139 41.24% 26.45% 32.31%+0.11 -17.5 1
2003-11-09 @ Agro Chisinau W 1-043.9 1139 1111 32.31% 26.45% 41.24%-0.11 +17.5 11
2004-03-20 Dacia Chisinau W 3-038.8 1669 1386 71.38% 20.93% 7.69%+1.38 +10.7 36
2004-03-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-338.8 1386 1669 7.69% 20.93% 71.38%-1.38 -10.7 19
2004-03-20 FC Tiraspol D 0-053.4 1463 1360 56.95% 25.09% 17.96%+0.65 -4.0 24
2004-03-20 @ Zimbru D 0-053.4 1360 1463 17.96% 25.09% 56.95%-0.65 +4.1 23
2004-03-20 Tiligul L 0-234.7 1093 1271 22.11% 25.75% 52.14%-0.50 -20.3 1
2004-03-20 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-034.7 1271 1093 52.14% 25.75% 22.11%+0.50 +20.3 19
2004-03-20 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-138.2 1533 1156 76.82% 18.23% 4.95%+1.77 +2.3 33
2004-03-20 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-238.2 1156 1533 4.95% 18.23% 76.82%-1.77 -2.3 11
2004-03-24 Agro Chisinau D 0-051.9 1459 1073 77.28% 17.97% 4.74%+1.80 -7.9 25
2004-03-24 @ Zimbru D 0-051.9 1073 1459 4.74% 17.97% 77.28%-1.80 +7.9 2
2004-03-24 Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.3 1364 1375 43.55% 26.38% 30.07%+0.18 -1.3 24
2004-03-24 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-051.3 1375 1364 30.07% 26.38% 43.55%-0.18 +1.3 20
2004-03-24 Nistru Otaci L 0-140.2 1292 1536 16.30% 24.73% 58.98%-0.76 -8.3 19
2004-03-24 @ Tiligul W 1-040.2 1536 1292 58.98% 24.73% 16.30%+0.76 +8.3 36
2004-03-24 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-231.2 1154 1680 4.33% 17.40% 78.28%-1.91 -3.9 11
2004-03-24 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-031.2 1680 1154 78.28% 17.40% 4.33%+1.91 +3.9 39
2004-03-28 FC Tiraspol L 0-529.7 1081 1362 13.64% 23.97% 62.39%-0.92 -30.8 2
2004-03-28 @ Agro Chisinau W 5-029.7 1362 1081 62.39% 23.97% 13.64%+0.92 +30.8 27
2004-03-28 Tiligul W 1-038.9 1683 1283 78.00% 17.56% 4.44%+1.86 +2.1 42
2004-03-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-138.9 1283 1683 4.44% 17.56% 78.00%-1.86 -2.1 19
2004-03-28 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-136.3 1376 1150 67.48% 22.46% 10.06%+1.15 +8.5 23
2004-03-28 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-336.3 1150 1376 10.06% 22.46% 67.48%-1.15 -8.5 11
2004-03-28 Zimbru W 2-043.2 1544 1451 55.92% 25.25% 18.82%+0.61 +17.7 39
2004-03-28 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-243.2 1451 1544 18.82% 25.25% 55.92%-0.61 -17.7 25
2004-04-09 Dacia Chisinau D 0-050.3 1281 1385 30.81% 26.40% 42.78%-0.19 +1.2 20
2004-04-09 @ Tiligul D 0-050.3 1385 1281 42.78% 26.40% 30.81%+0.19 -1.1 24
2004-04-10 Nistru Otaci L 0-525.9 1050 1562 4.62% 17.81% 77.58%-1.85 -9.8 2
2004-04-10 @ Agro Chisinau W 5-025.9 1562 1050 77.58% 17.81% 4.62%+1.85 +9.8 42
2004-04-10 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-059.7 1433 1686 15.66% 24.57% 59.77%-0.80 +45.4 28
2004-04-10 @ Zimbru L 0-259.7 1686 1433 59.77% 24.57% 15.66%+0.80 -45.4 42
2004-04-10 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 5-130.9 1393 1142 69.28% 21.79% 8.92%+1.25 +13.6 30
2004-04-10 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-530.9 1142 1393 8.92% 21.79% 69.28%-1.25 -13.6 11
2004-04-17 Agro Chisinau W 3-023.9 1640 1040 86.37% 11.95% 1.68%+2.67 +1.9 45
2004-04-17 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-323.9 1040 1640 1.68% 11.95% 86.37%-2.67 -1.9 2
2004-04-17 FC Tiraspol W 3-038.6 1571 1407 62.63% 23.91% 13.46%+0.90 +18.9 45
2004-04-17 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-338.6 1407 1571 13.46% 23.91% 62.63%-0.90 -18.9 30
2004-04-17 Tiligul W 1-046.4 1128 1282 24.64% 26.02% 49.34%-0.40 +20.3 14
2004-04-17 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 0-146.4 1282 1128 49.34% 26.02% 24.64%+0.40 -20.3 20
2004-04-17 Zimbru D 1-159.2 1383 1479 31.89% 26.44% 41.67%-0.16 +0.8 25
2004-04-17 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-159.2 1479 1383 41.67% 26.44% 31.89%+0.16 -0.8 29
2004-04-23 Dacia Chisinau L 0-230.2 1038 1384 10.07% 22.46% 67.48%-1.18 -9.8 2
2004-04-23 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-030.2 1384 1038 67.48% 22.46% 10.07%+1.18 +9.8 28
2004-04-23 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-171.0 1590 1642 37.94% 26.50% 35.56%+0.02 -0.2 46
2004-04-23 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-171.0 1642 1590 35.56% 26.50% 37.94%-0.02 +0.2 46
2004-04-23 Tiligul D 1-155.9 1388 1262 59.16% 24.69% 16.15%+0.74 -4.0 31
2004-04-23 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-155.9 1262 1388 16.15% 24.69% 59.16%-0.74 +4.0 21
2004-04-23 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-243.1 1478 1148 74.18% 19.63% 6.19%+1.57 +2.8 32
2004-04-23 @ Zimbru L 2-343.1 1148 1478 6.19% 19.63% 74.18%-1.57 -2.8 14
2004-05-02 Agro Chisinau W 3-138.5 1146 1028 58.33% 24.85% 16.82%+0.71 +13.9 17
2004-05-02 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 1-338.5 1028 1146 16.82% 24.85% 58.33%-0.71 -13.9 2
2004-05-02 FC Tiraspol W 2-040.3 1642 1384 69.73% 21.62% 8.65%+1.28 +8.3 49
2004-05-02 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-240.3 1384 1642 8.65% 21.62% 69.73%-1.28 -8.3 31
2004-05-02 Nistru Otaci W 3-267.5 1394 1590 20.38% 25.51% 54.10%-0.57 +19.7 31
2004-05-02 @ Dacia Chisinau L 2-367.5 1590 1394 54.10% 25.51% 20.38%+0.57 -19.7 46
2004-05-02 Zimbru D 2-262.7 1266 1481 18.73% 25.24% 56.03%-0.64 +2.6 22
2004-05-02 @ Tiligul D 2-262.7 1481 1266 56.03% 25.24% 18.73%+0.64 -2.6 33
2004-05-07 Agro Chisinau W 3-027.4 1269 1014 69.46% 21.72% 8.81%+1.26 +12.4 25
2004-05-07 @ Tiligul L 0-327.4 1014 1269 8.81% 21.72% 69.46%-1.26 -12.4 2
2004-05-07 Nistru Otaci D 1-158.0 1159 1570 7.42% 20.72% 71.86%-1.44 +6.3 18
2004-05-07 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 1-158.0 1570 1159 71.86% 20.72% 7.42%+1.44 -6.3 47
2004-05-07 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-148.4 1414 1651 16.85% 24.85% 58.29%-0.73 -8.5 31
2004-05-07 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-048.4 1651 1414 58.29% 24.85% 16.85%+0.73 +8.5 52
2004-05-07 Zimbru D 0-053.8 1376 1478 30.94% 26.41% 42.65%-0.19 +1.1 32
2004-05-07 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-053.8 1478 1376 42.65% 26.41% 30.94%+0.19 -1.1 34
2004-05-16 FC Tiraspol L 0-149.2 1405 1377 48.62% 26.08% 25.30%+0.35 -20.0 31
2004-05-16 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-049.2 1377 1405 25.30% 26.08% 48.62%-0.35 +20.0 35
2004-05-16 Tiligul D 0-055.2 1564 1281 71.35% 20.94% 7.71%+1.38 -7.0 48
2004-05-16 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-055.2 1281 1564 7.71% 20.94% 71.35%-1.38 +7.0 26
2004-05-16 Zimbru L 0-525.9 1002 1477 5.50% 18.90% 75.60%-1.70 -11.9 2
2004-05-16 @ Agro Chisinau W 5-025.9 1477 1002 75.60% 18.90% 5.50%+1.70 +11.9 37
2004-05-18 Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 3-370.8 1659 1166 82.32% 14.85% 2.84%+2.24 -4.7 53
2004-05-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 3-370.8 1166 1659 2.84% 14.85% 82.32%-2.24 +4.7 19
2004-05-22 Agro Chisinau W 2-136.2 1397 990 78.33% 17.37% 4.30%+1.88 +1.9 38
2004-05-22 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-236.2 990 1397 4.30% 17.37% 78.33%-1.88 -1.9 2
2004-05-22 Dacia Chisinau W 1-048.6 1170 1385 18.69% 25.23% 56.08%-0.65 +22.7 22
2004-05-22 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 0-148.6 1385 1170 56.08% 25.23% 18.69%+0.65 -22.7 31
2004-05-22 Nistru Otaci W 4-153.9 1489 1557 35.56% 26.50% 37.94%-0.05 +37.9 40
2004-05-22 @ Zimbru L 1-453.9 1557 1489 37.94% 26.50% 35.56%+0.05 -37.9 48
2004-05-22 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-237.4 1288 1654 9.16% 21.94% 68.90%-1.26 -8.9 26
2004-05-22 @ Tiligul W 2-037.4 1654 1288 68.90% 21.94% 9.16%+1.26 +8.8 56
2004-05-26 Agro Chisinau W 1-028.9 1519 988 83.84% 13.80% 2.36%+2.39 +1.0 51
2004-05-26 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-128.9 988 1519 2.36% 13.80% 83.84%-2.39 -1.0 2
2004-05-26 FC Tiraspol L 0-234.6 1193 1399 19.51% 25.37% 55.12%-0.61 -18.3 22
2004-05-26 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-034.6 1399 1193 55.12% 25.37% 19.51%+0.61 +18.3 41
2004-05-26 Tiligul D 0-050.4 1362 1279 54.88% 25.41% 19.71%+0.57 -3.6 32
2004-05-26 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-050.4 1279 1362 19.71% 25.41% 54.88%-0.57 +3.6 27
2004-05-26 Zimbru W 2-048.3 1663 1527 60.17% 24.48% 15.35%+0.79 +14.7 59
2004-05-26 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-248.3 1527 1663 15.35% 24.48% 60.17%-0.79 -14.7 40
2004-06-04 Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-049.6 1283 1175 57.44% 25.01% 17.56%+0.67 -4.2 28
2004-06-04 @ Tiligul D 0-049.6 1175 1283 17.56% 25.01% 57.44%-0.67 +4.1 23
2004-06-05 Dacia Chisinau W 2-037.2 1512 1359 61.64% 24.15% 14.21%+0.85 +13.7 43
2004-06-05 @ Zimbru L 0-237.2 1359 1512 14.21% 24.15% 61.64%-0.85 -13.7 32
2004-06-05 Nistru Otaci L 1-254.4 1417 1520 30.81% 26.40% 42.78%-0.19 -13.2 41
2004-06-05 @ FC Tiraspol W 2-154.4 1520 1417 42.78% 26.40% 30.81%+0.19 +13.2 54
2004-06-05 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-226.1 987 1678 1.94% 12.72% 85.34%-2.58 -1.6 2
2004-06-05 @ Agro Chisinau W 2-026.1 1678 987 85.34% 12.72% 1.94%+2.58 +1.6 62
2004-06-09 Agro Chisinau W 3-025.6 1345 986 75.87% 18.75% 5.38%+1.69 +7.2 35
2004-06-09 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-325.6 986 1345 5.38% 18.75% 75.87%-1.69 -7.2 2
2004-06-09 FC Tiraspol D 1-155.7 1279 1404 28.08% 26.28% 45.65%-0.28 +1.5 29
2004-06-09 @ Tiligul D 1-155.7 1404 1279 45.65% 26.28% 28.08%+0.28 -1.5 42
2004-06-09 Nistru Otaci W 3-046.5 1680 1534 61.02% 24.29% 14.68%+0.82 +20.5 65
2004-06-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-346.5 1534 1680 14.68% 24.29% 61.02%-0.82 -20.5 54
2004-06-09 Zimbru L 2-345.9 1179 1526 10.05% 22.45% 67.50%-1.18 -4.6 23
2004-06-09 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-245.9 1526 1179 67.50% 22.45% 10.05%+1.18 +4.6 46
2004-06-13 Dacia Chisinau W 1-040.2 1513 1352 62.30% 23.99% 13.71%+0.88 +7.0 57
2004-06-13 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-140.2 1352 1513 13.71% 23.99% 62.30%-0.88 -7.0 35
2004-06-13 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-169.4 1402 1700 12.64% 23.62% 63.74%-0.98 +24.1 45
2004-06-13 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-269.4 1700 1402 63.74% 23.62% 12.64%+0.98 -24.1 65
2004-06-13 Tiligul W 2-033.4 1530 1280 69.16% 21.84% 9.00%+1.25 +8.7 49
2004-06-13 @ Zimbru L 0-233.4 1280 1530 9.00% 21.84% 69.16%-1.25 -8.7 29
2004-06-13 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-044.1 978 1174 20.39% 25.51% 54.09%-0.57 +41.5 5
2004-06-13 @ Agro Chisinau L 0-244.1 1174 978 54.09% 25.51% 20.39%+0.57 -41.5 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-06-13 12.64% @ FC Tiraspol 1402 2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1700 1
2 2004-04-10 15.66% @ Zimbru 1433 2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1686 0
3 2003-09-14 17.90% @ Nistru Otaci 1455 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1679 0
4 2003-09-28 18.61% @ FC Tiraspol 1305 2 Zimbru 1520 0
5 2004-05-22 18.69% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1170 1 Dacia Chisinau 1385 0
6 2004-05-02 20.38% @ Dacia Chisinau 1394 3 Nistru Otaci 1590 2
7 2004-06-13 20.39% @ Agro Chisinau 978 2 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1174 0
8 2003-10-26 20.73% @ FC Tiraspol 1337 2 Nistru Otaci 1529 1
9 2003-10-26 21.51% Dacia Chisinau 1381 1 @ Zimbru 1445 0
10 2004-04-17 24.64% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1128 1 Tiligul 1282 0
11 2004-05-16 25.30% FC Tiraspol 1377 1 @ Dacia Chisinau 1405 0
12 2003-09-04 28.54% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1159 2 Tiligul 1280 1
13 2003-10-17 29.55% Nistru Otaci 1492 2 @ Zimbru 1485 0
14 2003-11-09 32.31% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1139 1 @ Agro Chisinau 1111 0
15 2003-08-10 33.43% Tiligul 1267 3 @ Agro Chisinau 1230 2
16 2003-11-01 35.35% FC Tiraspol 1357 2 @ Tiligul 1307 1
17 2004-05-22 35.56% @ Zimbru 1489 4 Nistru Otaci 1557 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-10 45.45 @ Zimbru 2 1433 15.66% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1686 59.77% 24.57%
2 2003-09-28 42.92 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1305 18.61% Zimbru 0 1520 56.17% 25.22%
3 2004-06-13 41.49 @ Agro Chisinau 2 978 20.39% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1174 54.09% 25.51%
4 2003-09-01 39.65 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1639 41.51% @ Zimbru 0 1545 32.05% 26.44%
5 2004-05-22 37.91 @ Zimbru 4 1489 35.56% Nistru Otaci 1 1557 37.94% 26.50%
6 2003-10-17 34.81 Nistru Otaci 2 1492 29.55% @ Zimbru 0 1485 44.10% 26.35%
7 2004-03-28 30.84 FC Tiraspol 5 1362 62.39% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1081 13.64% 23.97%
8 2003-08-24 28.88 Zimbru 2 1516 38.96% @ Nistru Otaci 0 1440 34.54% 26.49%
9 2003-09-01 27.49 Nistru Otaci 5 1411 56.37% @ Agro Chisinau 1 1194 18.44% 25.18%
10 2004-06-13 24.10 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1402 12.64% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1700 63.74% 23.62%
11 2003-09-14 23.08 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1455 17.90% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1679 57.02% 25.08%
12 2004-05-22 22.73 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1170 18.69% Dacia Chisinau 0 1385 56.08% 25.23%
13 2003-08-31 22.51 @ FC Tiraspol 3 1307 59.08% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1182 16.21% 24.70%
14 2003-10-26 21.54 Dacia Chisinau 1 1381 21.51% @ Zimbru 0 1445 52.82% 25.67%
15 2003-11-01 20.89 Zimbru 3 1422 60.68% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1160 14.95% 24.37%
16 2003-10-26 20.61 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1337 20.73% Nistru Otaci 1 1529 53.70% 25.56%
17 2004-06-09 20.54 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1680 61.02% Nistru Otaci 0 1534 14.68% 24.29%
18 2003-11-09 20.48 @ Nistru Otaci 4 1513 57.33% Dacia Chisinau 1 1406 17.65% 25.03%
19 2004-03-20 20.32 Tiligul 2 1271 52.14% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1093 22.11% 25.75%
20 2004-04-17 20.29 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1128 24.64% Tiligul 0 1282 49.34% 26.02%
21 2003-10-15 20.24 Dacia Chisinau 2 1364 52.25% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1185 22.01% 25.74%
22 2003-11-09 20.07 @ Zimbru 3 1443 61.49% Tiligul 0 1291 14.32% 24.19%
23 2004-05-16 20.03 FC Tiraspol 1 1377 25.30% @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1405 48.62% 26.08%
24 2004-05-02 19.69 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1394 20.38% Nistru Otaci 2 1590 54.10% 25.51%
25 2004-04-17 18.91 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1571 62.63% FC Tiraspol 0 1407 13.46% 23.91%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-23 71.0 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1590 37.94% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1642 35.56% 26.50%
2 2004-05-18 70.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1659 82.32% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 3 1166 2.84% 14.85%
3 2003-11-01 70.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1660 61.54% Nistru Otaci 1 1508 14.29% 24.18%
4 2004-06-13 69.4 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1402 12.64% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1700 63.74% 23.62%
5 2004-05-02 67.5 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1394 20.38% Nistru Otaci 2 1590 54.10% 25.51%
6 2003-09-14 62.9 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1455 17.90% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1679 57.02% 25.08%
7 2004-05-02 62.7 @ Tiligul 2 1266 18.73% Zimbru 2 1481 56.03% 25.24%
8 2003-08-31 61.2 @ Tiligul 2 1280 31.99% Dacia Chisinau 2 1374 41.57% 26.44%
9 2003-10-26 60.1 @ Agro Chisinau 1 1107 3.66% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1668 79.97% 16.37%
10 2004-04-10 59.7 @ Zimbru 2 1433 15.66% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1686 59.77% 24.57%
11 2004-04-17 59.2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1383 31.89% Zimbru 1 1479 41.67% 26.44%
12 2003-10-15 58.7 @ Tiligul 0 1287 8.51% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1669 69.97% 21.52%
13 2003-10-26 58.6 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1337 20.73% Nistru Otaci 1 1529 53.70% 25.56%
14 2004-05-07 58.0 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1159 7.42% Nistru Otaci 1 1570 71.86% 20.72%
15 2003-08-17 56.4 @ Tiligul 1 1282 23.96% Nistru Otaci 1 1443 50.09% 25.96%
16 2004-04-23 55.9 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1388 59.16% Tiligul 1 1262 16.15% 24.69%
17 2003-08-24 55.7 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1379 65.75% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1176 11.22% 23.03%
18 2004-06-09 55.7 @ Tiligul 1 1279 28.08% FC Tiraspol 1 1404 45.65% 26.28%
19 2004-05-16 55.2 @ Nistru Otaci 0 1564 71.35% Tiligul 0 1281 7.71% 20.94%
20 2003-08-10 54.7 Tiligul 3 1267 33.43% @ Agro Chisinau 2 1230 40.09% 26.48%
21 2004-06-05 54.4 Nistru Otaci 2 1520 42.78% @ FC Tiraspol 1 1417 30.81% 26.40%
22 2004-05-22 53.9 @ Zimbru 4 1489 35.56% Nistru Otaci 1 1557 37.94% 26.50%
23 2004-05-07 53.8 @ FC Tiraspol 0 1376 30.94% Zimbru 0 1478 42.65% 26.41%
24 2003-08-09 53.7 @ Zimbru 0 1515 67.74% FC Tiraspol 0 1286 9.89% 22.36%
25 2004-03-20 53.4 @ Zimbru 0 1463 56.95% FC Tiraspol 0 1360 17.96% 25.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-17 23.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1640 86.37% Agro Chisinau 0 1040 1.68% 11.95%
2 2004-06-09 25.6 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1345 75.87% Agro Chisinau 0 986 5.38% 18.75%
3 2004-04-10 25.9 Nistru Otaci 5 1562 77.58% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1050 4.62% 17.81%
4 2004-05-16 25.9 Zimbru 5 1477 75.60% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1002 5.50% 18.90%
5 2004-06-05 26.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1678 85.34% @ Agro Chisinau 0 987 1.94% 12.72%
6 2004-05-07 27.4 @ Tiligul 3 1269 69.46% Agro Chisinau 0 1014 8.81% 21.72%
7 2004-05-26 28.9 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1519 83.84% Agro Chisinau 0 988 2.36% 13.80%
8 2004-03-28 29.7 FC Tiraspol 5 1362 62.39% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1081 13.64% 23.97%
9 2003-08-16 30.0 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1625 73.62% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1185 6.48% 19.90%
10 2004-04-23 30.2 Dacia Chisinau 2 1384 67.48% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1038 10.07% 22.46%
11 2003-08-17 30.8 @ Zimbru 2 1509 72.05% Agro Chisinau 0 1215 7.31% 20.63%
12 2003-11-01 30.8 Zimbru 3 1422 60.68% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1160 14.95% 24.37%
13 2003-08-31 30.9 @ FC Tiraspol 3 1307 59.08% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1182 16.21% 24.70%
14 2004-04-10 30.9 @ FC Tiraspol 5 1393 69.28% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1142 8.92% 21.79%
15 2003-10-19 31.1 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1527 78.90% Agro Chisinau 0 1109 4.07% 17.02%
16 2004-03-24 31.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1680 78.28% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1154 4.33% 17.40%
17 2003-11-09 32.1 @ Zimbru 3 1443 61.49% Tiligul 0 1291 14.32% 24.19%
18 2003-09-27 32.6 @ Tiligul 2 1265 59.36% Agro Chisinau 0 1138 15.99% 24.65%
19 2003-11-01 32.6 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1402 71.66% Agro Chisinau 0 1114 7.53% 20.81%
20 2003-09-13 33.0 @ Zimbru 1 1517 74.80% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1177 5.89% 19.31%
21 2004-06-13 33.4 @ Zimbru 2 1530 69.16% Tiligul 0 1280 9.00% 21.84%
22 2003-10-15 33.8 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1334 67.04% Agro Chisinau 0 1114 10.35% 22.61%
23 2004-05-26 34.6 FC Tiraspol 2 1399 55.12% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1193 19.51% 25.37%
24 2004-03-20 34.7 Tiligul 2 1271 52.14% @ Agro Chisinau 0 1093 22.11% 25.75%
25 2003-09-01 35.2 Nistru Otaci 5 1411 56.37% @ Agro Chisinau 1 1194 18.44% 25.18%