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2004-05 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

70 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dacia Chisinau

8.13 points above expected

45 points · 36.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rapid Ghidighici

9.72 points below expected

4 points · 13.72 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 22 4 2 70 54 12 +42 64.37 +5.63
2 Nistru Otaci 28 17 3 8 54 51 27 +24 51.68 +2.32
3 Dacia Chisinau 28 14 3 11 45 38 31 +7 36.87 +8.13
4 FC Tiraspol 28 12 8 8 44 41 23 +18 46.49 -2.49
5 Zimbru 28 12 7 9 43 29 15 +14 49.40 -6.40
6 Tiligul-Tiras 28 11 8 9 41 32 27 +5 33.21 +7.79
7 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 28 3 5 20 14 16 51 -35 18.94 -4.94
8 Rapid Ghidighici 28 0 4 24 4 8 83 -75 13.72 -9.72

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dacia Chisinau 45 36.87 +8.13
2 Tiligul-Tiras 41 33.21 +7.79
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 70 64.37 +5.63
4 Nistru Otaci 54 51.68 +2.32
5 FC Tiraspol 44 46.49 -2.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rapid Ghidighici 4 13.72 -9.72
2 Zimbru 43 49.40 -6.40
3 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 14 18.94 -4.94
4 FC Tiraspol 44 46.49 -2.49
5 Nistru Otaci 54 51.68 +2.32

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 12 Sep 12 – Mar 16 1 in 77
2 FC Tiraspol 3 Mar 16 – Apr 3 1 in 61
3 Dacia Chisinau 3 Apr 24 – May 7 1 in 23
4 Tiligul-Tiras 3 May 29 – Jun 8 1 in 12
5 Nistru Otaci 5 Sep 22 – Oct 23 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 3 Nov 6 – Nov 24 1 in 95
2 Rapid Ghidighici 16 Nov 14 – Jun 8 1 in 63
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Mar 20 – Mar 20 1 in 10
4 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 6 Apr 16 – May 18 1 in 7
5 Nistru Otaci 2 Sep 12 – Sep 18 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tiligul-Tiras 10 Apr 16 – Jun 8 1 in 862
2 FC Tiraspol 12 Oct 23 – Apr 24 1 in 135
3 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 3 Nov 6 – Nov 18 1 in 11
4 Nistru Otaci 7 Mar 20 – May 3 1 in 11
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 15 Aug 14 – Mar 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Tiraspol 5 Sep 26 – Oct 31 1 in 40
2 Rapid Ghidighici 28 Aug 14 – Jun 8 1 in 22
3 Zimbru 5 Apr 3 – Apr 24 1 in 17
4 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 13 Sep 22 – Apr 3 1 in 10
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 Apr 8 – Apr 16 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1660 70 -29 12 12.3 -0.3
Nistru Otaci 1459 54 -61 7 9.4 -2.4
Dacia Chisinau 1483 45 +74 9 6.6 +2.4
FC Tiraspol 1470 44 -28 10 10.5 -0.5
Zimbru 1439 43 +1 5 6.0 -1.0
Tiligul-Tiras 1439 41 +81 11 6.5 +4.5
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1085 14 +10 3 3.2 -0.2
Rapid Ghidighici 873 4 -49 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DC FT NO RG ST TIL UC ZIM
Dacia Chisinau —
1-1-2
3.86
1-0-3
3.53
4-0-0
9.35
0-1-3
2.00
1-1-2
6.35
4-0-0
8.30
3-0-1
3.70
FC Tiraspol
2-1-1
7.36
 —
1-0-3
4.51
3-1-0
9.71
1-0-3
2.69
1-2-1
7.76
2-2-0
9.38
2-2-0
4.72
Nistru Otaci
3-0-1
7.69
3-0-1
6.70
 —
4-0-0
10.22
0-1-3
3.28
2-1-1
7.88
4-0-0
9.74
1-1-2
5.89
Rapid Ghidighici
0-0-4
1.93
0-1-3
1.60
0-0-4
1.13
 —
0-0-4
0.69
0-1-3
2.56
0-1-3
3.85
0-1-3
1.39
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-1-0
9.26
3-0-1
8.55
3-1-0
7.94
4-0-0
10.77
 —
3-1-0
9.56
4-0-0
10.37
2-1-1
8.22
Tiligul-Tiras
2-1-1
4.86
1-2-1
3.46
1-1-2
3.34
3-1-0
8.69
0-1-3
1.72
 —
3-1-0
8.35
1-1-2
3.15
Unisport-Auto Chisinau
0-0-4
2.92
0-2-2
1.89
0-0-4
1.55
3-1-0
7.36
0-0-4
0.99
0-1-3
2.88
 —
0-1-3
1.69
Zimbru
1-0-3
7.52
0-2-2
6.49
2-1-1
5.32
3-1-0
9.93
1-1-2
3.02
2-1-1
8.07
3-1-0
9.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +12.7
Allowed 0.81 -8.2
Differential 0.94 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%12.50%8.48%3.57%2.23%1.34%38.84%
112.50%8.04%4.46%2.68%1.79%1.34%30.80%
28.48%4.46%—0.89%0.89%0.45%15.18%
33.57%2.68%0.89%———7.14%
42.23%1.79%0.89%———4.91%
5+1.34%1.34%0.45%———3.12%
Total38.84%30.80%15.18%7.14%4.91%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.20 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.15
CV 1.16 1.16 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
114.29%7.14%3.57%7.14%——32.14%
27.14%14.29%—3.57%3.57%—28.57%
310.71%—————10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%14.29%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.11 +0.25
SD 1.10 1.13 1.71
CV 0.81 1.02 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%21.43%————32.14%
110.71%17.86%—3.57%3.57%—35.71%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
3——3.57%———3.57%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total39.29%50.00%3.57%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 0.82 +0.64
SD 1.73 0.94 2.09
CV 1.18 1.15 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%10.71%———25.00%
117.86%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—28.57%
210.71%3.57%——3.57%—17.86%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
43.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
5+3.57%—3.57%———7.14%
Total46.43%25.00%21.43%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.96 +0.86
SD 1.76 1.17 2.12
CV 0.97 1.21 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%17.86%17.86%14.29%10.71%75.00%
1—7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%21.43%
2—————3.57%3.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%14.29%21.43%21.43%17.86%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.29 2.96 -2.68
SD 0.53 1.82 1.76
CV 1.87 0.61 —
Max 2 7 +0
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%—————10.71%
125.00%3.57%—3.57%——32.14%
225.00%7.14%—3.57%——35.71%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total71.43%21.43%—7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 0.43 +1.50
SD 1.44 0.84 1.58
CV 0.75 1.95 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
114.29%14.29%7.14%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%3.57%————7.14%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%39.29%17.86%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.96 +0.18
SD 1.24 0.92 1.49
CV 1.08 0.96 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%21.43%7.14%3.57%—60.71%
1—3.57%14.29%—3.57%7.14%28.57%
27.14%—————7.14%
3———————
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%35.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.57 1.82 -1.25
SD 0.92 1.54 1.82
CV 1.61 0.85 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%25.00%3.57%———46.43%
117.86%7.14%3.57%———28.57%
27.14%—————7.14%
310.71%3.57%————14.29%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total53.57%39.29%7.14%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 0.54 +0.50
SD 1.32 0.64 1.55
CV 1.27 1.19 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1660 70 64.37 +5.63 82.0% 51 54 60 65 68 74 81
Dacia Chisinau 1483 45 36.87 +8.13 93.0% 24 26 32 37 41 47 54
FC Tiraspol 1470 44 46.49 -2.49 38.0% 33 38 43 47 50 56 59
Nistru Otaci 1459 54 51.68 +2.32 68.0% 36 40 47 51 58 62 64
Tiligul-Tiras 1439 41 33.21 +7.79 88.0% 18 22 29 33 38 46 49
Zimbru 1439 43 49.40 -6.40 17.0% 35 39 45 49 53 60 62
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1085 14 18.94 -4.94 16.0% 7 10 15 18 22 29 34
Rapid Ghidighici 873 4 13.72 -9.72 2.0% 4 6 10 14 17 20 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.82%
Slight Edge
45.54%18.75%35.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.23 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
85%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.57/gm
Runaway
00.370.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.1 * Lucky: 7.1 to 9.47 * Wild Swing: 9.47 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.41 * Close: 0.41 to 0.62 * Off: 0.62 to 0.82 * Way Off: 0.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.42 points
Some Luck
05.9215
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Close
00.511.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
Dacia Chisinau
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
2.00%
Rapid Ghidighici
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 253.99
2.92
Strong Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.35
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.13
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.20
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.119
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol85.00%13.00%2.00%—————
Nistru Otaci8.00%41.00%32.00%15.00%2.00%2.00%——
Dacia Chisinau—1.00%5.00%13.00%44.00%35.00%2.00%—
FC Tiraspol1.00%17.00%27.00%37.00%17.00%1.00%——
Zimbru6.00%28.00%32.00%26.00%7.00%1.00%——
Tiligul-Tiras——2.00%9.00%29.00%55.00%5.00%—
Unisport-Auto Chisinau—————6.00%67.00%27.00%
Rapid Ghidighici————1.00%—26.00%73.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dacia Chisinau 98.00% 2.00% —
FC Tiraspol 100% — —
Nistru Otaci 100% — —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% — —
Tiligul-Tiras 95.00% 5.00% —
Zimbru 100% — —
Unisport-Auto Chisinau 6.00% 67.00% 27.00%
Rapid Ghidighici 1.00% 26.00% 73.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-08-14 Nistru Otaci L 0-146.4 1395 1461 35.59% 19.87% 44.53%-0.16 -21.9 0
2004-08-14 @ FC Tiraspol W 1-046.4 1461 1395 44.53% 19.87% 35.59%+0.16 +21.9 3
2004-08-14 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-139.5 1285 1579 12.70% 18.88% 68.42%-1.30 -8.8 0
2004-08-14 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 1-039.5 1579 1285 68.42% 18.88% 12.70%+1.30 +8.8 3
2004-08-14 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-033.9 1335 1187 62.15% 19.38% 18.48%+0.92 +23.5 3
2004-08-14 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-233.9 1187 1335 18.48% 19.38% 62.15%-0.92 -23.5 0
2004-08-14 Zimbru D 0-053.0 1188 1479 12.82% 18.89% 68.28%-1.29 +8.7 1
2004-08-14 @ Rapid Ghidighici D 0-053.0 1479 1188 68.28% 18.89% 12.82%+1.29 -8.7 1
2004-08-22 Dacia Chisinau W 4-247.5 1483 1359 59.79% 19.50% 20.71%+0.79 +20.2 6
2004-08-22 @ Nistru Otaci L 2-447.5 1359 1483 20.71% 19.50% 59.79%-0.79 -20.1 3
2004-08-22 FC Tiraspol W 1-043.0 1588 1373 67.67% 18.96% 13.37%+1.25 +9.3 6
2004-08-22 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-143.0 1373 1588 13.37% 18.96% 67.67%-1.25 -9.3 0
2004-08-22 Tiligul-Tiras D 1-156.4 1196 1276 33.69% 19.85% 46.45%-0.23 +1.6 2
2004-08-22 @ Rapid Ghidighici D 1-156.4 1276 1196 46.45% 19.85% 33.69%+0.23 -1.6 1
2004-08-22 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 5-131.4 1470 1163 73.45% 18.18% 8.37%+1.71 +17.6 4
2004-08-22 @ Zimbru L 1-531.4 1163 1470 8.37% 18.18% 73.45%-1.71 -17.6 0
2004-08-29 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-163.8 1338 1597 15.10% 19.13% 65.77%-1.13 +7.1 4
2004-08-29 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-163.8 1597 1338 65.77% 19.13% 15.10%+1.13 -7.1 7
2004-08-29 Zimbru L 0-139.1 1275 1488 18.78% 19.40% 61.83%-0.90 -12.6 1
2004-08-29 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 1-039.1 1488 1275 61.83% 19.40% 18.78%+0.90 +12.7 7
2004-08-30 Nistru Otaci L 0-231.6 1146 1503 9.21% 18.35% 72.44%-1.62 -12.2 0
2004-08-30 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-031.6 1503 1146 72.44% 18.35% 9.21%+1.62 +12.2 9
2004-08-30 Rapid Ghidighici W 7-030.8 1364 1198 63.71% 19.28% 17.01%+1.00 +70.1 3
2004-08-30 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-730.8 1198 1364 17.01% 19.28% 63.71%-1.00 -70.1 2
2004-09-12 Dacia Chisinau L 0-233.7 1128 1345 18.40% 19.37% 62.23%-0.92 -23.4 2
2004-09-12 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 2-033.7 1345 1128 62.23% 19.37% 18.40%+0.92 +23.4 7
2004-09-12 FC Tiraspol W 1-049.8 1262 1434 22.79% 19.60% 57.61%-0.69 +33.1 4
2004-09-12 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-149.8 1434 1262 57.61% 19.60% 22.79%+0.69 -33.1 3
2004-09-12 Nistru Otaci W 2-049.7 1501 1515 42.91% 19.88% 37.21%+0.10 +42.8 10
2004-09-12 @ Zimbru L 0-249.7 1515 1501 37.21% 19.88% 42.91%-0.10 -42.8 9
2004-09-12 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 6-129.4 1590 1133 79.58% 16.57% 3.85%+2.46 +9.8 10
2004-09-12 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-629.4 1133 1590 3.85% 16.57% 79.58%-2.46 -9.9 0
2004-09-18 Rapid Ghidighici W 4-140.2 1124 1104 47.46% 19.84% 32.69%+0.27 +47.1 3
2004-09-18 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 1-440.2 1104 1124 32.69% 19.84% 47.46%-0.27 -47.1 2
2004-09-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-151.6 1472 1600 27.71% 19.75% 52.54%-0.47 -17.8 9
2004-09-18 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-051.6 1600 1472 52.54% 19.75% 27.71%+0.47 +17.8 13
2004-09-18 Tiligul-Tiras D 1-157.5 1369 1295 54.30% 19.71% 25.99%+0.54 -3.7 8
2004-09-18 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-157.5 1295 1369 25.99% 19.71% 54.30%-0.54 +3.7 5
2004-09-18 Zimbru D 1-164.0 1401 1543 25.91% 19.71% 54.38%-0.55 +3.8 4
2004-09-18 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-164.0 1543 1401 54.38% 19.71% 25.91%+0.55 -3.8 11
2004-09-22 Dacia Chisinau W 2-148.1 1404 1365 50.09% 19.80% 30.11%+0.37 +18.0 7
2004-09-22 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-248.1 1365 1404 30.11% 19.80% 50.09%-0.37 -17.9 8
2004-09-22 Nistru Otaci L 0-328.0 1057 1454 7.50% 17.98% 74.53%-1.82 -14.5 2
2004-09-22 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 3-028.0 1454 1057 74.53% 17.98% 7.50%+1.82 +14.5 12
2004-09-22 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-156.2 1540 1617 34.01% 19.86% 46.13%-0.22 -21.1 11
2004-09-22 @ Zimbru W 1-056.2 1617 1540 46.13% 19.86% 34.01%+0.22 +21.1 16
2004-09-22 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-037.0 1299 1171 60.22% 19.48% 20.29%+0.82 +13.6 8
2004-09-22 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-137.0 1171 1299 20.29% 19.48% 60.22%-0.82 -13.6 3
2004-09-26 FC Tiraspol D 1-157.0 1157 1422 14.61% 19.08% 66.31%-1.16 +7.2 4
2004-09-26 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 1-157.0 1422 1157 66.31% 19.08% 14.61%+1.16 -7.2 8
2004-09-26 Rapid Ghidighici W 3-026.5 1638 1043 83.35% 14.81% 1.85%+3.16 +3.4 19
2004-09-26 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-326.5 1043 1638 1.85% 14.81% 83.35%-3.16 -3.4 2
2004-09-26 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-144.5 1469 1313 62.90% 19.33% 17.77%+0.96 +11.3 15
2004-09-26 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-244.5 1313 1469 17.77% 19.33% 62.90%-0.96 -11.3 8
2004-09-26 Zimbru L 0-142.8 1347 1519 22.80% 19.60% 57.60%-0.69 -15.0 8
2004-09-26 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-042.8 1519 1347 57.60% 19.60% 22.80%+0.69 +15.0 14
2004-10-03 Dacia Chisinau L 1-243.4 1164 1332 23.18% 19.61% 57.21%-0.67 -14.4 4
2004-10-03 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-143.4 1332 1164 57.21% 19.61% 23.18%+0.67 +14.4 11
2004-10-03 FC Tiraspol W 1-045.0 1480 1415 53.30% 19.73% 26.97%+0.50 +17.4 18
2004-10-03 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-145.0 1415 1480 26.97% 19.73% 53.30%-0.50 -17.3 8
2004-10-03 Rapid Ghidighici W 1-031.3 1534 1039 80.73% 16.11% 3.16%+2.65 +2.2 17
2004-10-03 @ Zimbru L 0-131.3 1039 1534 3.16% 16.11% 80.73%-2.65 -2.2 2
2004-10-03 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-037.3 1642 1301 75.10% 17.85% 7.04%+1.88 +9.4 22
2004-10-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-237.3 1301 1642 7.04% 17.85% 75.10%-1.88 -9.4 8
2004-10-16 Nistru Otaci L 1-345.5 1347 1498 24.98% 19.68% 55.34%-0.59 -26.5 11
2004-10-16 @ Dacia Chisinau W 3-145.5 1498 1347 55.34% 19.68% 24.98%+0.59 +26.5 21
2004-10-16 Rapid Ghidighici W 4-027.8 1292 1037 70.41% 18.65% 10.95%+1.45 +27.5 11
2004-10-16 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-427.8 1037 1292 10.95% 18.65% 70.41%-1.45 -27.5 2
2004-10-16 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-349.5 1398 1651 15.47% 19.16% 65.37%-1.10 -17.3 8
2004-10-16 @ FC Tiraspol W 3-149.5 1651 1398 65.37% 19.16% 15.47%+1.10 +17.3 25
2004-10-16 Zimbru D 0-053.5 1150 1536 7.94% 18.08% 73.98%-1.77 +10.6 5
2004-10-16 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-053.5 1536 1150 73.98% 18.08% 7.94%+1.77 -10.6 18
2004-10-23 Dacia Chisinau W 2-038.9 1669 1320 75.47% 17.77% 6.76%+1.92 +9.0 28
2004-10-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-238.9 1320 1669 6.76% 17.77% 75.47%-1.92 -9.0 11
2004-10-23 FC Tiraspol D 1-156.7 1010 1380 8.59% 18.23% 73.18%-1.69 +9.3 3
2004-10-23 @ Rapid Ghidighici D 1-156.7 1380 1010 73.18% 18.23% 8.59%+1.69 -9.3 9
2004-10-23 Tiligul-Tiras W 3-034.5 1525 1319 67.02% 19.02% 13.96%+1.21 +26.4 21
2004-10-23 @ Zimbru L 0-334.5 1319 1525 13.96% 19.02% 67.02%-1.21 -26.4 11
2004-10-23 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-030.9 1524 1161 76.13% 17.62% 6.25%+2.00 +8.3 24
2004-10-23 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-230.9 1161 1524 6.25% 17.62% 76.13%-2.00 -8.3 5
2004-10-31 Rapid Ghidighici W 3-028.2 1311 1019 72.62% 18.32% 9.05%+1.64 +17.5 14
2004-10-31 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-328.2 1019 1311 9.05% 18.32% 72.62%-1.64 -17.5 3
2004-10-31 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-232.5 1152 1678 3.84% 16.57% 79.59%-2.47 -5.1 5
2004-10-31 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-032.5 1678 1152 79.59% 16.57% 3.84%+2.47 +5.1 31
2004-10-31 Tiligul-Tiras D 1-157.5 1371 1293 54.84% 19.69% 25.46%+0.57 -3.9 10
2004-10-31 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-157.5 1293 1371 25.46% 19.69% 54.84%-0.57 +3.9 12
2004-10-31 Zimbru L 0-156.4 1533 1552 42.22% 19.88% 37.90%+0.08 -25.1 24
2004-10-31 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-056.4 1552 1533 37.90% 19.88% 42.22%-0.08 +25.1 24
2004-11-06 Dacia Chisinau W 3-146.3 1297 1328 40.41% 19.89% 39.70%+0.01 +39.0 15
2004-11-06 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 1-346.3 1328 1297 39.70% 19.89% 40.41%-0.01 -39.0 14
2004-11-06 FC Tiraspol L 0-158.6 1577 1367 67.29% 18.99% 13.72%+1.22 -38.6 24
2004-11-06 @ Zimbru W 1-058.6 1367 1577 13.72% 18.99% 67.29%-1.22 +38.6 13
2004-11-06 Nistru Otaci W 2-048.7 1683 1507 64.55% 19.22% 16.23%+1.05 +20.9 34
2004-11-06 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-248.7 1507 1683 16.23% 19.22% 64.55%-1.05 -20.9 24
2004-11-06 Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-051.3 1002 1147 25.60% 19.70% 54.71%-0.56 +4.3 4
2004-11-06 @ Rapid Ghidighici D 0-051.3 1147 1002 54.71% 19.70% 25.60%+0.56 -4.3 6
2004-11-14 FC Tiraspol D 0-053.1 1289 1406 29.03% 19.78% 51.19%-0.41 +3.2 15
2004-11-14 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-053.1 1406 1289 51.19% 19.78% 29.03%+0.41 -3.2 14
2004-11-14 Rapid Ghidighici W 4-025.1 1487 1006 80.33% 16.28% 3.39%+2.58 +8.5 27
2004-11-14 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-425.1 1006 1487 3.39% 16.28% 80.33%-2.58 -8.4 4
2004-11-14 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-051.7 1143 1336 20.67% 19.50% 59.83%-0.80 +5.9 7
2004-11-14 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-051.7 1336 1143 59.83% 19.50% 20.67%+0.80 -5.9 16
2004-11-18 Dacia Chisinau L 0-155.7 1538 1293 69.82% 18.72% 11.46%+1.40 -40.1 24
2004-11-18 @ Zimbru W 1-055.7 1293 1538 11.46% 18.72% 69.82%-1.40 +40.1 18
2004-11-18 Nistru Otaci L 1-344.5 1330 1495 23.46% 19.62% 56.92%-0.66 -25.1 16
2004-11-18 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 3-144.5 1495 1330 56.92% 19.62% 23.46%+0.66 +25.1 30
2004-11-18 Unisport-Auto Chisinau D 0-052.3 1403 1149 70.36% 18.65% 10.99%+1.45 -9.4 15
2004-11-18 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-052.3 1149 1403 10.99% 18.65% 70.36%-1.45 +9.4 8
2004-11-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-425.4 997 1704 1.48% 14.25% 84.28%-3.37 -3.5 4
2004-11-20 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 4-025.4 1704 997 84.28% 14.25% 1.48%+3.37 +3.5 37
2004-11-24 Zimbru W 2-156.4 1707 1498 67.26% 19.00% 13.75%+1.22 +9.0 40
2004-11-24 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-256.4 1498 1707 13.75% 19.00% 67.26%-1.22 -9.0 24
2005-03-16 Nistru Otaci W 2-050.5 1393 1520 27.76% 19.75% 52.48%-0.47 +57.2 18
2005-03-16 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-250.5 1520 1393 52.48% 19.75% 27.76%+0.47 -57.2 30
2005-03-16 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-248.4 1305 1716 6.96% 17.83% 75.21%-1.89 -4.6 16
2005-03-16 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 2-148.4 1716 1305 75.21% 17.83% 6.96%+1.89 +4.6 43
2005-03-16 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-030.9 1333 1158 64.49% 19.23% 16.29%+1.05 +30.5 21
2005-03-16 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-330.9 1158 1333 16.29% 19.23% 64.49%-1.05 -30.5 8
2005-03-16 Zimbru L 0-228.8 994 1489 4.50% 16.92% 78.58%-2.31 -6.0 4
2005-03-16 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 2-028.8 1489 994 78.58% 16.92% 4.50%+2.31 +6.0 27
2005-03-20 Dacia Chisinau W 2-039.1 1463 1363 57.24% 19.61% 23.15%+0.67 +28.7 33
2005-03-20 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-239.1 1363 1463 23.15% 19.61% 57.24%-0.67 -28.7 21
2005-03-20 FC Tiraspol L 2-377.3 1721 1450 71.38% 18.51% 10.11%+1.53 -36.7 43
2005-03-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 3-277.3 1450 1721 10.11% 18.51% 71.38%-1.53 +36.7 21
2005-03-20 Tiligul-Tiras L 0-133.9 988 1300 11.57% 18.74% 69.69%-1.39 -8.1 4
2005-03-20 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 1-033.9 1300 988 69.69% 18.74% 11.57%+1.39 +8.1 19
2005-03-20 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 3-028.1 1495 1128 76.28% 17.58% 6.14%+2.02 +11.9 30
2005-03-20 @ Zimbru L 0-328.1 1128 1495 6.14% 17.58% 76.28%-2.02 -11.9 8
2005-03-24 Nistru Otaci L 0-133.7 1116 1492 8.37% 18.18% 73.45%-1.71 -5.9 8
2005-03-24 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-033.7 1492 1116 73.45% 18.18% 8.37%+1.71 +5.9 36
2005-04-03 Dacia Chisinau L 1-238.6 980 1335 9.32% 18.37% 72.31%-1.61 -6.2 4
2005-04-03 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 2-138.6 1335 980 72.31% 18.37% 9.32%+1.61 +6.2 24
2005-04-03 FC Tiraspol L 0-140.8 1308 1487 22.03% 19.57% 58.40%-0.73 -14.6 19
2005-04-03 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 1-040.8 1487 1308 58.40% 19.57% 22.03%+0.73 +14.6 24
2005-04-03 Nistru Otaci L 0-154.7 1507 1498 46.16% 19.86% 33.98%+0.22 -27.1 30
2005-04-03 @ Zimbru W 1-054.7 1498 1507 33.98% 19.86% 46.16%-0.22 +27.1 39
2005-04-03 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-033.4 1684 1110 82.84% 15.09% 2.07%+3.05 +1.4 46
2005-04-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-133.4 1110 1684 2.07% 15.09% 82.84%-3.05 -1.4 8
2005-04-08 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-067.9 1525 1685 23.92% 19.64% 56.44%-0.64 +4.8 40
2005-04-08 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-067.9 1685 1525 56.44% 19.64% 23.92%+0.64 -4.8 47
2005-04-08 Tiligul-Tiras W 1-040.6 1341 1293 51.10% 19.78% 29.12%+0.41 +18.5 27
2005-04-08 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-140.6 1293 1341 29.12% 19.78% 51.10%-0.41 -18.5 19
2005-04-08 Zimbru D 0-060.5 1502 1480 47.82% 19.84% 32.34%+0.28 -2.2 25
2005-04-08 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-060.5 1480 1502 32.34% 19.84% 47.82%-0.28 +2.2 31
2005-04-10 Rapid Ghidighici W 2-033.7 1109 974 60.88% 19.45% 19.67%+0.85 +24.9 11
2005-04-10 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 0-233.7 974 1109 19.67% 19.45% 60.88%-0.85 -24.9 4
2005-04-16 Dacia Chisinau W 1-041.5 1499 1359 61.38% 19.42% 19.20%+0.88 +12.9 28
2005-04-16 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-141.5 1359 1499 19.20% 19.42% 61.38%-0.88 -12.9 27
2005-04-16 Nistru Otaci L 0-524.7 949 1529 2.87% 15.89% 81.24%-2.74 -8.8 4
2005-04-16 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 5-024.7 1529 949 81.24% 15.89% 2.87%+2.74 +8.8 43
2005-04-16 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-066.8 1482 1681 20.13% 19.47% 60.40%-0.82 +6.1 32
2005-04-16 @ Zimbru D 0-066.8 1681 1482 60.40% 19.47% 20.13%+0.82 -6.1 48
2005-04-16 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-033.8 1275 1133 61.51% 19.42% 19.07%+0.88 +24.2 22
2005-04-16 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-233.8 1133 1275 19.07% 19.42% 61.51%-0.88 -24.2 11
2005-04-20 Rapid Ghidighici W 5-127.7 1512 940 82.80% 15.11% 2.09%+3.04 +4.2 31
2005-04-20 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-527.7 940 1512 2.09% 15.11% 82.80%-3.04 -4.2 4
2005-04-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-144.3 1346 1674 10.67% 18.60% 70.73%-1.48 -7.5 27
2005-04-20 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-044.3 1674 1346 70.73% 18.60% 10.67%+1.48 +7.5 51
2005-04-20 Zimbru W 1-051.8 1299 1488 21.04% 19.52% 59.44%-0.78 +34.1 25
2005-04-20 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-151.8 1488 1299 59.44% 19.52% 21.04%+0.78 -34.1 32
2005-04-24 FC Tiraspol L 0-427.4 1109 1517 7.11% 17.87% 75.02%-1.87 -18.0 11
2005-04-24 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 4-027.4 1517 1109 75.02% 17.87% 7.11%+1.87 +18.0 34
2005-04-24 Rapid Ghidighici W 5-023.8 1682 936 86.39% 12.78% 0.83%+3.92 +2.3 54
2005-04-24 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-523.8 936 1682 0.83% 12.78% 86.39%-3.92 -2.4 4
2005-04-24 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-057.0 1538 1333 66.94% 19.02% 14.03%+1.20 -8.3 44
2005-04-24 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-057.0 1333 1538 14.03% 19.02% 66.94%-1.20 +8.3 26
2005-04-24 Zimbru W 1-049.5 1339 1454 29.18% 19.79% 51.04%-0.41 +29.6 30
2005-04-24 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-149.5 1454 1339 51.04% 19.79% 29.18%+0.41 -29.6 32
2005-04-28 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-154.9 1535 1684 25.14% 19.68% 55.18%-0.58 -16.3 34
2005-04-28 @ FC Tiraspol W 1-054.9 1684 1535 55.18% 19.68% 25.14%+0.58 +16.3 57
2005-05-03 Dacia Chisinau L 1-240.3 1091 1368 13.77% 19.00% 67.23%-1.22 -9.0 11
2005-05-03 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-140.3 1368 1091 67.23% 19.00% 13.77%+1.22 +9.0 33
2005-05-03 FC Tiraspol W 1-052.6 1530 1518 46.47% 19.85% 33.67%+0.23 +20.9 47
2005-05-03 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-152.6 1518 1530 33.67% 19.85% 46.47%-0.23 -20.9 34
2005-05-03 Rapid Ghidighici W 3-025.8 1424 933 80.64% 16.15% 3.21%+2.64 +6.1 35
2005-05-03 @ Zimbru L 0-325.8 933 1424 3.21% 16.15% 80.64%-2.64 -6.1 4
2005-05-03 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-063.5 1701 1342 75.93% 17.67% 6.40%+1.97 -11.3 58
2005-05-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-063.5 1342 1701 6.40% 17.67% 75.93%-1.97 +11.3 27
2005-05-07 Nistru Otaci W 2-160.7 1377 1551 22.60% 19.59% 57.81%-0.70 +31.3 36
2005-05-07 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-260.7 1551 1377 57.81% 19.59% 22.60%+0.70 -31.3 47
2005-05-07 Rapid Ghidighici W 3-133.8 1353 927 78.54% 16.93% 4.53%+2.31 +5.2 30
2005-05-07 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 1-333.8 927 1353 4.53% 16.93% 78.54%-2.31 -5.2 4
2005-05-07 Zimbru L 0-133.7 1082 1431 9.63% 18.43% 71.94%-1.58 -6.8 11
2005-05-07 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 1-033.7 1431 1082 71.94% 18.43% 9.63%+1.58 +6.8 38
2005-05-11 Dacia Chisinau W 2-043.9 1689 1409 71.99% 18.42% 9.59%+1.58 +12.7 61
2005-05-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-243.9 1409 1689 9.59% 18.42% 71.99%-1.58 -12.7 36
2005-05-11 FC Tiraspol L 0-424.7 922 1497 2.95% 15.95% 81.09%-2.72 -7.3 4
2005-05-11 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 4-024.7 1497 922 81.09% 15.95% 2.95%+2.72 +7.3 37
2005-05-11 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-054.8 1437 1358 54.96% 19.69% 25.35%+0.57 -4.4 39
2005-05-11 @ Zimbru D 0-054.8 1358 1437 25.35% 19.69% 54.96%-0.57 +4.4 31
2005-05-11 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 4-131.6 1519 1076 79.17% 16.72% 4.11%+2.40 +6.7 50
2005-05-11 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-431.6 1076 1519 4.11% 16.72% 79.17%-2.40 -6.7 11
2005-05-15 Rapid Ghidighici W 3-025.9 1396 915 80.35% 16.27% 3.38%+2.59 +6.5 39
2005-05-15 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-325.9 915 1396 3.38% 16.27% 80.35%-2.59 -6.5 4
2005-05-15 Zimbru D 1-164.5 1526 1433 56.52% 19.64% 23.84%+0.64 -4.4 51
2005-05-15 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-164.5 1433 1526 23.84% 19.64% 56.52%-0.64 +4.4 40
2005-05-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-230.2 1069 1702 2.17% 15.21% 82.61%-3.01 -2.8 11
2005-05-18 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-030.2 1702 1069 82.61% 15.21% 2.17%+3.01 +2.8 64
2005-05-18 Tiligul-Tiras D 1-161.5 1505 1362 61.58% 19.41% 19.01%+0.89 -5.8 38
2005-05-18 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-161.5 1362 1505 19.01% 19.41% 61.58%-0.89 +5.8 32
2005-05-29 Dacia Chisinau W 3-255.7 1368 1402 40.06% 19.89% 40.05%+0.00 +21.5 35
2005-05-29 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 2-355.7 1402 1368 40.05% 19.89% 40.06%+0.00 -21.5 39
2005-05-29 FC Tiraspol L 0-246.5 1437 1499 36.21% 19.88% 43.91%-0.14 -41.8 40
2005-05-29 @ Zimbru W 2-046.5 1499 1437 43.91% 19.88% 36.21%+0.14 +41.8 41
2005-05-29 Nistru Otaci W 4-151.8 1705 1522 65.21% 19.17% 15.62%+1.09 +24.7 67
2005-05-29 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-451.8 1522 1705 15.62% 19.17% 65.21%-1.09 -24.7 51
2005-05-29 Unisport-Auto Chisinau L 0-235.2 908 1066 24.26% 19.65% 56.08%-0.62 -29.9 4
2005-05-29 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 2-035.2 1066 908 56.08% 19.65% 24.26%+0.62 +29.9 14
2005-06-03 Nistru Otaci W 4-257.7 1390 1497 30.16% 19.80% 50.04%-0.37 +42.4 38
2005-06-03 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 2-457.7 1497 1390 50.04% 19.80% 30.16%+0.37 -42.4 51
2005-06-05 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-226.9 878 1730 0.68% 12.29% 87.03%-4.10 -0.8 4
2005-06-05 @ Rapid Ghidighici W 2-026.9 1730 878 87.03% 12.29% 0.68%+4.10 +0.8 70
2005-06-08 FC Tiraspol W 4-154.3 1381 1541 24.04% 19.64% 56.31%-0.63 +74.8 42
2005-06-08 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-454.3 1541 1381 56.31% 19.64% 24.04%+0.63 -74.8 41
2005-06-08 Rapid Ghidighici W 7-227.2 1455 878 82.91% 15.05% 2.04%+3.07 +4.2 54
2005-06-08 @ Nistru Otaci L 2-727.2 878 1455 2.04% 15.05% 82.91%-3.07 -4.2 4
2005-06-08 Tiligul-Tiras L 1-239.4 1096 1432 10.24% 18.54% 71.23%-1.52 -6.8 14
2005-06-08 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-139.4 1432 1096 71.23% 18.54% 10.24%+1.52 +6.8 41
2005-06-08 Zimbru L 1-369.5 1730 1396 74.83% 17.91% 7.26%+1.85 -70.2 70
2005-06-08 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 3-169.5 1396 1730 7.26% 17.91% 74.83%-1.85 +70.2 43
2005-06-12 Dacia Chisinau L 0-151.7 1466 1456 46.25% 19.86% 33.89%+0.22 -27.1 43
2005-06-12 @ Zimbru W 1-051.7 1456 1466 33.89% 19.86% 46.25%-0.22 +27.1 45
2005-06-12 Unisport-Auto Chisinau W 2-137.8 1466 1089 76.68% 17.48% 5.84%+2.06 +3.9 44
2005-06-12 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-237.8 1089 1466 5.84% 17.48% 76.68%-2.06 -3.9 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-06-08 7.26% Zimbru 1396 3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1730 1
2 2005-03-20 10.11% FC Tiraspol 1450 3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1721 2
3 2004-11-18 11.46% Dacia Chisinau 1293 1 @ Zimbru 1538 0
4 2004-11-06 13.72% FC Tiraspol 1367 1 @ Zimbru 1577 0
5 2005-04-20 21.04% @ Tiligul-Tiras 1299 1 Zimbru 1488 0
6 2005-05-07 22.60% @ Dacia Chisinau 1377 2 Nistru Otaci 1551 1
7 2004-09-12 22.79% @ Tiligul-Tiras 1262 1 FC Tiraspol 1434 0
8 2005-06-08 24.04% @ Dacia Chisinau 1381 4 FC Tiraspol 1541 1
9 2005-03-16 27.76% @ FC Tiraspol 1393 2 Nistru Otaci 1520 0
10 2005-04-24 29.18% @ Dacia Chisinau 1339 1 Zimbru 1454 0
11 2005-06-03 30.16% @ Tiligul-Tiras 1390 4 Nistru Otaci 1497 2
12 2005-06-12 33.89% Dacia Chisinau 1456 1 @ Zimbru 1466 0
13 2005-04-03 33.98% Nistru Otaci 1498 1 @ Zimbru 1507 0
14 2004-10-31 37.90% Zimbru 1552 1 @ Nistru Otaci 1533 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-06-08 74.78 @ Dacia Chisinau 4 1381 24.04% FC Tiraspol 1 1541 56.31% 19.64%
2 2005-06-08 70.18 Zimbru 3 1396 7.26% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1730 74.83% 17.91%
3 2004-08-30 70.14 @ FC Tiraspol 7 1364 63.71% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1198 17.01% 19.28%
4 2005-03-16 57.18 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1393 27.76% Nistru Otaci 0 1520 52.48% 19.75%
5 2004-09-18 47.09 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 4 1124 47.46% Rapid Ghidighici 1 1104 32.69% 19.84%
6 2004-09-12 42.75 @ Zimbru 2 1501 42.91% Nistru Otaci 0 1515 37.21% 19.88%
7 2005-06-03 42.42 @ Tiligul-Tiras 4 1390 30.16% Nistru Otaci 2 1497 50.04% 19.80%
8 2005-05-29 41.81 FC Tiraspol 2 1499 43.91% @ Zimbru 0 1437 36.21% 19.88%
9 2004-11-18 40.10 Dacia Chisinau 1 1293 11.46% @ Zimbru 0 1538 69.82% 18.72%
10 2004-11-06 39.00 @ Tiligul-Tiras 3 1297 40.41% Dacia Chisinau 1 1328 39.70% 19.89%
11 2004-11-06 38.62 FC Tiraspol 1 1367 13.72% @ Zimbru 0 1577 67.29% 18.99%
12 2005-03-20 36.68 FC Tiraspol 3 1450 10.11% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1721 71.38% 18.51%
13 2005-04-20 34.12 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1299 21.04% Zimbru 0 1488 59.44% 19.52%
14 2004-09-12 33.10 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1262 22.79% FC Tiraspol 0 1434 57.61% 19.60%
15 2005-05-07 31.31 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1377 22.60% Nistru Otaci 1 1551 57.81% 19.59%
16 2005-03-16 30.46 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1333 64.49% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1158 16.29% 19.23%
17 2005-05-29 29.89 Unisport-Auto Chisinau 2 1066 56.08% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 908 24.26% 19.65%
18 2005-04-24 29.56 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1339 29.18% Zimbru 0 1454 51.04% 19.79%
19 2005-03-20 28.69 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1463 57.24% Dacia Chisinau 0 1363 23.15% 19.61%
20 2004-10-16 27.45 @ Tiligul-Tiras 4 1292 70.41% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1037 10.95% 18.65%
21 2005-06-12 27.11 Dacia Chisinau 1 1456 33.89% @ Zimbru 0 1466 46.25% 19.86%
22 2005-04-03 27.06 Nistru Otaci 1 1498 33.98% @ Zimbru 0 1507 46.16% 19.86%
23 2004-10-16 26.55 Nistru Otaci 3 1498 55.34% @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1347 24.98% 19.68%
24 2004-10-23 26.43 @ Zimbru 3 1525 67.02% Tiligul-Tiras 0 1319 13.96% 19.02%
25 2004-11-18 25.14 Nistru Otaci 3 1495 56.92% @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1330 23.46% 19.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-03-20 77.3 FC Tiraspol 3 1450 10.11% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1721 71.38% 18.51%
2 2005-06-08 69.5 Zimbru 3 1396 7.26% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1730 74.83% 17.91%
3 2005-04-08 67.9 @ Nistru Otaci 0 1525 23.92% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1685 56.44% 19.64%
4 2005-04-16 66.8 @ Zimbru 0 1482 20.13% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1681 60.40% 19.47%
5 2005-05-15 64.5 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1526 56.52% Zimbru 1 1433 23.84% 19.64%
6 2004-09-18 64.0 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1401 25.91% Zimbru 1 1543 54.38% 19.71%
7 2004-08-29 63.8 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1338 15.10% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1597 65.77% 19.13%
8 2005-05-03 63.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1701 75.93% Tiligul-Tiras 0 1342 6.40% 17.67%
9 2005-05-18 61.5 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1505 61.58% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1362 19.01% 19.41%
10 2005-05-07 60.7 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1377 22.60% Nistru Otaci 1 1551 57.81% 19.59%
11 2005-04-08 60.5 @ FC Tiraspol 0 1502 47.82% Zimbru 0 1480 32.34% 19.84%
12 2004-11-06 58.6 FC Tiraspol 1 1367 13.72% @ Zimbru 0 1577 67.29% 18.99%
13 2005-06-03 57.7 @ Tiligul-Tiras 4 1390 30.16% Nistru Otaci 2 1497 50.04% 19.80%
14 2004-09-18 57.5 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1369 54.30% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1295 25.99% 19.71%
15 2004-10-31 57.5 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1371 54.84% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1293 25.46% 19.69%
16 2004-09-26 57.0 @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1157 14.61% FC Tiraspol 1 1422 66.31% 19.08%
17 2005-04-24 57.0 @ Nistru Otaci 0 1538 66.94% Tiligul-Tiras 0 1333 14.03% 19.02%
18 2004-10-23 56.7 @ Rapid Ghidighici 1 1010 8.59% FC Tiraspol 1 1380 73.18% 18.23%
19 2004-08-22 56.4 @ Rapid Ghidighici 1 1196 33.69% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1276 46.45% 19.85%
20 2004-10-31 56.4 Zimbru 1 1552 37.90% @ Nistru Otaci 0 1533 42.22% 19.88%
21 2004-11-24 56.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1707 67.26% Zimbru 1 1498 13.75% 19.00%
22 2004-09-22 56.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1617 46.13% @ Zimbru 0 1540 34.01% 19.86%
23 2004-11-18 55.7 Dacia Chisinau 1 1293 11.46% @ Zimbru 0 1538 69.82% 18.72%
24 2005-05-29 55.7 @ Tiligul-Tiras 3 1368 40.06% Dacia Chisinau 2 1402 40.05% 19.89%
25 2005-04-28 54.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1684 55.18% @ FC Tiraspol 0 1535 25.14% 19.68%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-04-24 23.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1682 86.39% Rapid Ghidighici 0 936 0.83% 12.78%
2 2005-04-16 24.7 Nistru Otaci 5 1529 81.24% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 949 2.87% 15.89%
3 2005-05-11 24.7 FC Tiraspol 4 1497 81.09% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 922 2.95% 15.95%
4 2004-11-14 25.1 @ Nistru Otaci 4 1487 80.33% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1006 3.39% 16.28%
5 2004-11-20 25.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1704 84.28% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 997 1.48% 14.25%
6 2005-05-03 25.8 @ Zimbru 3 1424 80.64% Rapid Ghidighici 0 933 3.21% 16.15%
7 2005-05-15 25.9 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1396 80.35% Rapid Ghidighici 0 915 3.38% 16.27%
8 2004-09-26 26.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1638 83.35% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1043 1.85% 14.81%
9 2005-06-05 26.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1730 87.03% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 878 0.68% 12.29%
10 2005-06-08 27.2 @ Nistru Otaci 7 1455 82.91% Rapid Ghidighici 2 878 2.04% 15.05%
11 2005-04-24 27.4 FC Tiraspol 4 1517 75.02% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1109 7.11% 17.87%
12 2005-04-20 27.7 @ FC Tiraspol 5 1512 82.80% Rapid Ghidighici 1 940 2.09% 15.11%
13 2004-10-16 27.8 @ Tiligul-Tiras 4 1292 70.41% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1037 10.95% 18.65%
14 2004-09-22 28.0 Nistru Otaci 3 1454 74.53% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 1057 7.50% 17.98%
15 2005-03-20 28.1 @ Zimbru 3 1495 76.28% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1128 6.14% 17.58%
16 2004-10-31 28.2 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1311 72.62% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1019 9.05% 18.32%
17 2005-03-16 28.8 Zimbru 2 1489 78.58% @ Rapid Ghidighici 0 994 4.50% 16.92%
18 2004-09-12 29.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1590 79.58% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1133 3.85% 16.57%
19 2005-05-18 30.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1702 82.61% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1069 2.17% 15.21%
20 2004-08-30 30.8 @ FC Tiraspol 7 1364 63.71% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1198 17.01% 19.28%
21 2004-10-23 30.9 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1524 76.13% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1161 6.25% 17.62%
22 2005-03-16 30.9 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1333 64.49% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1158 16.29% 19.23%
23 2004-10-03 31.3 @ Zimbru 1 1534 80.73% Rapid Ghidighici 0 1039 3.16% 16.11%
24 2004-08-22 31.4 @ Zimbru 5 1470 73.45% Unisport-Auto Chisinau 1 1163 8.37% 18.18%
25 2004-08-30 31.6 Nistru Otaci 2 1503 72.44% @ Unisport-Auto Chisinau 0 1146 9.21% 18.35%