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2005-06 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

71 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sheriff Tiraspol

10.61 points above expected

71 points · 60.39 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Nistru Otaci

6.97 points below expected

31 points · 37.97 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 22 5 1 71 57 11 +46 60.39 +10.61
2 Zimbru 28 15 8 5 53 47 20 +27 47.91 +5.09
3 FC Tiraspol 28 8 13 7 37 24 21 +3 43.07 -6.07
4 Tiligul-Tiras 28 7 13 8 34 22 23 -1 38.97 -4.97
5 Nistru Otaci 28 6 13 9 31 24 27 -3 37.97 -6.97
6 Dacia Chisinau 28 7 9 12 30 28 39 -11 36.40 -6.40
7 Politehnica Chisinau 28 5 10 13 25 18 37 -19 19.55 +5.45
8 Dinamo Bender 28 2 9 17 15 17 59 -42 18.03 -3.03

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 71 60.39 +10.61
2 Politehnica Chisinau 25 19.55 +5.45
3 Zimbru 53 47.91 +5.09
4 Dinamo Bender 15 18.03 -3.03
5 Tiligul-Tiras 34 38.97 -4.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Nistru Otaci 31 37.97 -6.97
2 Dacia Chisinau 30 36.40 -6.40
3 FC Tiraspol 37 43.07 -6.07
4 Tiligul-Tiras 34 38.97 -4.97
5 Dinamo Bender 15 18.03 -3.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 10 Aug 13 – Oct 23 1 in 174
2 Zimbru 4 Sep 10 – Sep 24 1 in 17
3 Politehnica Chisinau 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 11
4 Dinamo Bender 1 Sep 10 – Sep 10 1 in 8
5 Dacia Chisinau 2 Sep 15 – Sep 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Tiraspol 3 Sep 14 – Sep 24 1 in 93
2 Zimbru 3 Oct 2 – Oct 23 1 in 55
3 Nistru Otaci 3 Sep 10 – Sep 19 1 in 49
4 Dacia Chisinau 3 Apr 1 – Apr 18 1 in 25
5 Tiligul-Tiras 2 Apr 1 – Apr 9 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Politehnica Chisinau 3 Sep 18 – Oct 2 1 in 30
2 FC Tiraspol 11 Mar 11 – May 5 1 in 25
3 Nistru Otaci 7 Apr 18 – May 28 1 in 18
4 Zimbru 11 Mar 24 – May 28 1 in 12
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 18 Aug 13 – Mar 24 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nistru Otaci 7 Aug 15 – Sep 24 1 in 33
2 Tiligul-Tiras 7 Oct 23 – Mar 15 1 in 25
3 FC Tiraspol 5 Apr 29 – May 28 1 in 21
4 Dacia Chisinau 9 Nov 20 – Apr 18 1 in 19
5 Dinamo Bender 16 Sep 14 – Apr 1 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1683 71 +7 11 11.2 -0.2
Zimbru 1530 53 +19 11 8.6 +2.4
FC Tiraspol 1429 37 -24 3 7.3 -4.3
Tiligul-Tiras 1379 34 -11 8 7.6 +0.4
Nistru Otaci 1399 31 +2 5 6.3 -1.3
Dacia Chisinau 1338 30 +26 7 5.6 +1.4
Politehnica Chisinau 1193 25 -5 3 3.8 -0.8
Dinamo Bender 1121 15 -15 2 3.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DC DB FT NO PC ST TIL ZIM
Dacia Chisinau —
3-0-1
8.18
0-2-2
4.35
1-2-1
5.07
1-2-1
8.23
0-0-4
2.23
1-2-1
4.69
1-1-2
4.03
Dinamo Bender
1-0-3
2.63
 —
0-2-2
2.25
1-1-2
2.61
0-3-1
5.08
0-0-4
1.19
0-3-1
2.38
0-0-4
1.91
FC Tiraspol
2-2-0
6.19
2-2-0
8.69
 —
2-2-0
6.00
1-2-1
8.69
0-1-3
2.96
1-3-0
5.66
0-1-3
4.35
Nistru Otaci
1-2-1
5.44
2-1-1
8.20
0-2-2
4.52
 —
2-2-0
8.02
0-2-2
2.30
0-2-2
5.15
1-2-1
4.01
Politehnica Chisinau
1-2-1
2.60
1-3-0
5.42
1-2-1
2.24
0-2-2
2.76
 —
0-0-4
1.18
2-0-2
2.52
0-1-3
2.05
Sheriff Tiraspol
4-0-0
8.74
4-0-0
10.20
3-1-0
7.81
2-2-0
8.61
4-0-0
10.20
 —
2-1-1
8.22
3-1-0
7.40
Tiligul-Tiras
1-2-1
5.82
1-3-0
8.50
0-3-1
4.86
2-2-0
5.36
2-0-2
8.36
1-1-2
2.59
 —
0-2-2
3.95
Zimbru
2-1-1
6.61
4-0-0
9.16
3-1-0
6.18
1-2-1
6.53
3-1-0
8.96
0-1-3
3.27
2-2-0
6.60
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +11.5
Allowed 0.72 -9.9
Differential 0.97 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.96%12.05%4.46%2.23%1.79%0.45%37.95%
112.05%15.18%6.25%1.79%0.45%1.34%37.05%
24.46%6.25%3.57%0.45%—0.89%15.62%
32.23%1.79%0.45%———4.46%
41.79%0.45%————2.23%
5+0.45%1.34%0.89%———2.68%
Total37.95%37.05%15.62%4.46%2.23%2.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.77
CV 1.17 1.17 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%10.71%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
17.14%14.29%10.71%3.57%—3.57%39.29%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total25.00%32.14%28.57%10.71%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.39 -0.39
SD 1.09 1.20 1.59
CV 1.09 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%53.57%
13.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%—7.14%32.14%
2—3.57%7.14%——3.57%14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%35.71%14.29%10.71%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.11 -1.50
SD 0.74 2.01 2.01
CV 1.21 0.95 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%14.29%3.57%———42.86%
114.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
2—10.71%7.14%———17.86%
3———————
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total42.86%39.29%17.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 0.75 +0.11
SD 0.97 0.75 1.10
CV 1.13 1.00 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%14.29%7.14%———42.86%
13.57%25.00%7.14%—3.57%—39.29%
2—7.14%————7.14%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%53.57%14.29%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 0.96 -0.11
SD 0.97 0.88 1.26
CV 1.13 0.91 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%3.57%3.57%7.14%—50.00%
110.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
23.57%3.57%3.57%——3.57%14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%10.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.32 -0.68
SD 0.73 1.36 1.49
CV 1.14 1.03 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
125.00%3.57%3.57%———32.14%
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
37.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total67.86%25.00%7.14%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 0.39 +1.64
SD 1.67 0.63 1.57
CV 0.82 1.60 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%7.14%10.71%———42.86%
114.29%17.86%10.71%———42.86%
2—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%32.14%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 0.82 -0.04
SD 0.88 0.82 1.14
CV 1.11 1.00 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
117.86%17.86%3.57%———39.29%
210.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
33.57%—————3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
Total50.00%35.71%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 0.71 +0.96
SD 1.72 0.90 1.97
CV 1.03 1.26 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1683 71 60.39 +10.61 97.0% 47 51 56 60 64 69 77
Zimbru 1530 53 47.91 +5.09 82.0% 35 37 44 48 51 58 61
FC Tiraspol 1429 37 43.07 -6.07 18.0% 30 33 39 43 47 53 57
Nistru Otaci 1399 31 37.97 -6.97 11.0% 24 28 35 38 41 49 53
Tiligul-Tiras 1379 34 38.97 -4.97 20.0% 24 28 35 40 43 48 51
Dacia Chisinau 1338 30 36.40 -6.40 17.0% 24 28 32 36 41 46 48
Politehnica Chisinau 1193 25 19.55 +5.45 86.0% 9 11 16 19 23 30 33
Dinamo Bender 1121 15 18.03 -3.03 30.0% 8 11 15 18 21 26 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.29%
Clear Edge
39.29%35.71%25.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.98 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.2
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
91%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.64/gm
Runaway
00.391/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.51 * Some Luck: 4.51 to 6.76 * Lucky: 6.76 to 9.02 * Wild Swing: 9.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.58 * Close: 0.58 to 0.87 * Off: 0.87 to 1.16 * Way Off: 1.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.36 points
Some Luck
05.6414
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.721.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
11.00%
Nistru Otaci
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Even
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 177.65
2.69
Moderate Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
71%
Even
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
96%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
73%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.25
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Some Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.28
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1490.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol91.00%6.00%3.00%—————
Zimbru8.00%51.00%28.00%6.00%7.00%———
FC Tiraspol1.00%25.00%26.00%22.00%14.00%12.00%——
Tiligul-Tiras—9.00%15.00%31.00%26.00%18.00%1.00%—
Nistru Otaci—8.00%12.00%25.00%22.00%31.00%1.00%1.00%
Dacia Chisinau—1.00%16.00%16.00%31.00%34.00%2.00%—
Politehnica Chisinau—————3.00%53.00%44.00%
Dinamo Bender—————2.00%43.00%55.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Dacia Chisinau 100%
Dinamo Bender 100%
FC Tiraspol 100%
Nistru Otaci 100%
Politehnica Chisinau 100%
Sheriff Tiraspol 100%
Tiligul-Tiras 100%
Zimbru 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-08-13 Dacia Chisinau D 1-153.5 1133 1450 9.96% 27.35% 62.69%-1.28 +4.5 1
2005-08-13 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 1-153.5 1450 1133 62.69% 27.35% 9.96%+1.28 -4.5 1
2005-08-13 FC Tiraspol D 1-154.9 1422 1445 35.36% 37.71% 26.92%+0.13 -0.6 1
2005-08-13 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 1-154.9 1445 1422 26.92% 37.71% 35.36%-0.13 +0.6 1
2005-08-13 Dinamo Bender W 3-135.5 1560 1203 76.22% 18.02% 5.77%+1.95 +3.8 3
2005-08-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-335.5 1203 1560 5.77% 18.02% 76.22%-1.95 -3.8 0
2005-08-15 Nistru Otaci D 1-154.7 1424 1434 37.26% 37.52% 25.22%+0.19 -0.9 1
2005-08-15 @ Zimbru D 1-154.7 1434 1424 25.22% 37.52% 37.26%-0.19 +0.9 1
2005-08-20 Politehnica Chisinau W 4-025.7 1564 1138 81.41% 14.25% 4.35%+2.29 +5.8 6
2005-08-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-425.7 1138 1564 4.35% 14.25% 81.41%-2.29 -5.8 1
2005-08-20 Tiligul-Tiras L 0-151.1 1434 1421 40.29% 37.06% 22.65%+0.30 -16.3 1
2005-08-20 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-051.1 1421 1434 22.65% 37.06% 40.29%-0.30 +16.3 4
2005-08-20 Zimbru L 0-249.0 1445 1423 41.45% 36.83% 21.72%+0.35 -31.3 1
2005-08-20 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-049.0 1423 1445 21.72% 36.83% 41.45%-0.35 +31.3 4
2005-08-22 FC Tiraspol L 0-432.9 1199 1446 12.99% 31.66% 55.35%-0.94 -24.3 0
2005-08-22 @ Dinamo Bender W 4-032.9 1446 1199 55.35% 31.66% 12.99%+0.94 +24.3 4
2005-08-28 Dacia Chisinau D 0-049.6 1438 1414 41.69% 36.78% 21.53%+0.35 -1.7 5
2005-08-28 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 0-049.6 1414 1438 21.53% 36.78% 41.69%-0.35 +1.7 2
2005-08-28 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-151.8 1454 1570 23.19% 37.18% 39.63%-0.31 -11.3 4
2005-08-28 @ Zimbru W 1-051.8 1570 1454 39.63% 37.18% 23.19%+0.31 +11.3 9
2005-08-29 Nistru Otaci D 0-051.0 1470 1418 45.25% 35.86% 18.89%+0.49 -2.3 5
2005-08-29 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-051.0 1418 1470 18.89% 35.86% 45.25%-0.49 +2.3 2
2005-08-29 Dinamo Bender D 2-255.0 1132 1175 32.55% 37.87% 29.59%+0.03 -0.2 2
2005-08-29 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 2-255.0 1175 1132 29.59% 37.87% 32.55%-0.03 +0.2 1
2005-09-10 Nistru Otaci W 2-155.5 1175 1420 13.05% 31.73% 55.22%-0.94 +19.4 4
2005-09-10 @ Dinamo Bender L 1-255.5 1420 1175 55.22% 31.73% 13.05%+0.94 -19.4 2
2005-09-10 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-044.0 1581 1436 56.03% 31.30% 12.67%+0.94 +12.5 12
2005-09-10 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-244.0 1436 1581 12.67% 31.30% 56.03%-0.94 -12.5 5
2005-09-10 Zimbru L 0-430.3 1132 1443 10.14% 27.67% 62.19%-1.25 -18.1 2
2005-09-10 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 4-030.3 1443 1132 62.19% 27.67% 10.14%+1.25 +18.1 7
2005-09-11 FC Tiraspol L 1-255.1 1415 1468 31.26% 37.89% 30.86%-0.01 -13.0 2
2005-09-11 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-155.1 1468 1415 30.86% 37.89% 31.26%+0.01 +13.0 8
2005-09-14 Politehnica Chisinau W 3-027.5 1423 1114 72.22% 20.87% 6.91%+1.73 +8.2 8
2005-09-14 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-327.5 1114 1423 6.91% 20.87% 72.22%-1.73 -8.2 2
2005-09-14 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-251.0 1481 1594 23.46% 37.23% 39.31%-0.30 -21.5 8
2005-09-14 @ FC Tiraspol W 2-051.0 1594 1481 39.31% 37.23% 23.46%+0.30 +21.4 15
2005-09-14 Dinamo Bender W 5-132.2 1461 1195 68.29% 23.62% 8.09%+1.52 +11.2 10
2005-09-14 @ Zimbru L 1-532.2 1195 1461 8.09% 23.62% 68.29%-1.52 -11.2 4
2005-09-15 Dacia Chisinau L 1-254.9 1401 1403 38.35% 37.38% 24.27%+0.23 -14.8 2
2005-09-15 @ Nistru Otaci W 2-154.9 1403 1401 24.27% 37.38% 38.35%-0.23 +14.8 5
2005-09-18 FC Tiraspol W 1-050.9 1105 1459 8.70% 24.92% 66.38%-1.46 +23.2 5
2005-09-18 @ Politehnica Chisinau L 0-150.9 1459 1105 66.38% 24.92% 8.70%+1.46 -23.2 8
2005-09-19 Dacia Chisinau L 0-234.9 1184 1417 13.66% 32.36% 53.98%-0.88 -13.5 4
2005-09-19 @ Dinamo Bender W 2-034.9 1417 1184 53.98% 32.36% 13.66%+0.88 +13.5 8
2005-09-19 Nistru Otaci W 2-040.8 1615 1386 64.65% 26.08% 9.28%+1.34 +8.5 18
2005-09-19 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-240.8 1386 1615 9.28% 26.08% 64.65%-1.34 -8.5 2
2005-09-19 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-043.5 1472 1432 43.87% 36.25% 19.88%+0.44 +19.0 13
2005-09-19 @ Zimbru L 0-243.5 1432 1472 19.88% 36.25% 43.87%-0.44 -19.0 8
2005-09-24 Politehnica Chisinau D 1-153.9 1378 1129 66.62% 24.76% 8.62%+1.44 -5.0 3
2005-09-24 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-153.9 1129 1378 8.62% 24.76% 66.62%-1.44 +5.0 6
2005-09-24 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-150.0 1431 1624 16.25% 34.46% 49.29%-0.68 -8.5 8
2005-09-24 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-050.0 1624 1431 49.29% 34.46% 16.25%+0.68 +8.5 21
2005-09-24 Dinamo Bender D 0-049.0 1413 1170 66.00% 25.18% 8.82%+1.40 -5.5 9
2005-09-24 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 0-049.0 1170 1413 8.82% 25.18% 66.00%-1.40 +5.5 5
2005-09-24 Zimbru L 0-150.8 1436 1491 30.80% 37.89% 31.31%-0.03 -13.6 8
2005-09-24 @ FC Tiraspol W 1-050.8 1491 1436 31.31% 37.89% 30.80%+0.03 +13.6 16
2005-10-02 Politehnica Chisinau L 0-248.6 1422 1134 70.34% 22.20% 7.46%+1.63 -45.3 8
2005-10-02 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-048.6 1134 1422 7.46% 22.20% 70.34%-1.63 +45.3 9
2005-10-02 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-134.0 1176 1632 5.94% 18.47% 75.59%-1.95 -2.5 5
2005-10-02 @ Dinamo Bender W 1-034.0 1632 1176 75.59% 18.47% 5.94%+1.95 +2.5 24
2005-10-02 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-049.0 1422 1407 40.56% 37.01% 22.43%+0.31 -1.5 9
2005-10-02 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-049.0 1407 1422 22.43% 37.01% 40.56%-0.31 +1.5 10
2005-10-02 Zimbru W 2-157.8 1373 1505 21.41% 36.74% 41.84%-0.39 +15.8 6
2005-10-02 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-257.8 1505 1373 41.84% 36.74% 21.41%+0.39 -15.8 16
2005-10-15 Dacia Chisinau L 0-153.8 1489 1377 52.37% 33.14% 14.50%+0.78 -19.8 16
2005-10-15 @ Zimbru W 1-053.8 1377 1489 14.50% 33.14% 52.37%-0.78 +19.8 11
2005-10-15 Nistru Otaci W 1-044.0 1409 1389 41.22% 36.88% 21.91%+0.34 +10.8 13
2005-10-15 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 0-144.0 1389 1409 21.91% 36.88% 41.22%-0.34 -10.8 6
2005-10-15 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-134.1 1179 1634 5.97% 18.52% 75.51%-1.95 -2.5 9
2005-10-15 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-034.1 1634 1179 75.51% 18.52% 5.97%+1.95 +2.5 27
2005-10-15 Dinamo Bender W 1-033.8 1421 1173 66.50% 24.84% 8.66%+1.43 +4.1 12
2005-10-15 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-133.8 1173 1421 8.66% 24.84% 66.50%-1.43 -4.1 5
2005-10-23 FC Tiraspol L 0-147.5 1378 1425 31.98% 37.88% 30.14%+0.01 -13.9 6
2005-10-23 @ Nistru Otaci W 1-047.5 1425 1378 30.14% 37.88% 31.98%-0.01 +13.9 15
2005-10-23 Politehnica Chisinau D 0-044.6 1169 1176 37.53% 37.49% 24.99%+0.20 -1.0 6
2005-10-23 @ Dinamo Bender D 0-044.6 1176 1169 24.99% 37.49% 37.53%-0.20 +1.0 10
2005-10-23 Tiligul-Tiras D 1-153.6 1397 1420 35.43% 37.71% 26.86%+0.13 -0.6 12
2005-10-23 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-153.6 1420 1397 26.86% 37.71% 35.43%-0.13 +0.6 14
2005-10-23 Zimbru W 3-044.8 1637 1469 58.39% 29.98% 11.63%+1.04 +16.4 30
2005-10-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-344.8 1469 1637 11.63% 29.98% 58.39%-1.04 -16.4 16
2005-10-29 Dacia Chisinau D 2-259.8 1439 1396 44.10% 36.19% 19.71%+0.44 -1.4 16
2005-10-29 @ FC Tiraspol D 2-259.8 1396 1439 19.71% 36.19% 44.10%-0.44 +1.4 13
2005-10-29 Politehnica Chisinau W 5-235.4 1453 1178 69.13% 23.04% 7.83%+1.56 +7.2 19
2005-10-29 @ Zimbru L 2-535.4 1178 1453 7.83% 23.04% 69.13%-1.56 -7.2 10
2005-10-29 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-163.8 1420 1653 13.70% 32.40% 53.90%-0.88 +3.3 15
2005-10-29 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 1-163.8 1653 1420 53.90% 32.40% 13.70%+0.88 -3.4 31
2005-10-29 Dinamo Bender W 1-035.0 1364 1168 61.35% 28.20% 10.46%+1.18 +5.3 9
2005-10-29 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-135.0 1168 1364 10.46% 28.20% 61.35%-1.18 -5.3 6
2005-11-06 FC Tiraspol W 1-047.1 1650 1437 63.03% 27.13% 9.84%+1.26 +4.9 34
2005-11-06 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-147.1 1437 1650 9.84% 27.13% 63.03%-1.26 -4.9 16
2005-11-06 Nistru Otaci D 0-047.7 1398 1369 42.31% 36.64% 21.05%+0.38 -1.8 14
2005-11-06 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-047.7 1369 1398 21.05% 36.64% 42.31%-0.38 +1.8 10
2005-11-06 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-155.6 1170 1424 12.64% 31.26% 56.09%-0.98 +19.6 13
2005-11-06 @ Politehnica Chisinau L 1-255.6 1424 1170 56.09% 31.26% 12.64%+0.98 -19.6 15
2005-11-06 Zimbru L 0-331.4 1163 1460 10.67% 28.55% 60.78%-1.19 -14.8 6
2005-11-06 @ Dinamo Bender W 3-031.4 1460 1163 60.78% 28.55% 10.67%+1.19 +14.8 22
2005-11-16 Politehnica Chisinau W 1-034.1 1433 1190 66.00% 25.18% 8.82%+1.40 +4.2 19
2005-11-16 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-134.1 1190 1433 8.82% 25.18% 66.00%-1.40 -4.2 13
2005-11-16 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-057.9 1371 1655 11.23% 29.41% 59.36%-1.12 +4.6 11
2005-11-16 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-057.9 1655 1371 59.36% 29.41% 11.23%+1.12 -4.6 35
2005-11-16 Dinamo Bender W 2-139.2 1396 1148 66.51% 24.83% 8.66%+1.43 +3.9 17
2005-11-16 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-239.2 1148 1396 8.66% 24.83% 66.51%-1.43 -3.9 6
2005-11-16 Zimbru D 1-155.3 1404 1475 28.63% 37.83% 33.54%-0.10 +0.3 16
2005-11-16 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 1-155.3 1475 1404 33.54% 37.83% 28.63%+0.10 -0.3 23
2005-11-20 Dacia Chisinau W 5-143.1 1650 1400 66.77% 24.66% 8.57%+1.44 +12.1 38
2005-11-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-543.1 1400 1650 8.57% 24.66% 66.77%-1.44 -12.1 17
2005-11-20 FC Tiraspol W 2-152.2 1475 1437 43.49% 36.35% 20.16%+0.42 +9.6 26
2005-11-20 @ Zimbru L 1-252.2 1437 1475 20.16% 36.35% 43.49%-0.42 -9.6 19
2005-11-20 Nistru Otaci L 1-341.5 1186 1375 16.46% 34.59% 48.94%-0.67 -14.0 13
2005-11-20 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 3-141.5 1375 1186 48.94% 34.59% 16.46%+0.67 +14.0 14
2005-11-20 Tiligul-Tiras D 2-257.6 1144 1404 12.30% 30.84% 56.86%-1.01 +2.8 7
2005-11-20 @ Dinamo Bender D 2-257.6 1404 1144 56.86% 30.84% 12.30%+1.01 -2.8 17
2006-03-10 Dacia Chisinau D 0-046.4 1172 1388 14.71% 33.32% 51.96%-0.80 +3.4 14
2006-03-10 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 0-046.4 1388 1172 51.96% 33.32% 14.71%+0.80 -3.4 18
2006-03-11 FC Tiraspol D 0-048.7 1402 1427 35.02% 37.74% 27.24%+0.12 -0.6 18
2006-03-11 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 0-048.7 1427 1402 27.24% 37.74% 35.02%-0.12 +0.6 20
2006-03-11 Nistru Otaci W 2-040.6 1484 1390 50.37% 34.02% 15.61%+0.69 +15.4 29
2006-03-11 @ Zimbru L 0-240.6 1390 1484 15.61% 34.02% 50.37%-0.69 -15.4 14
2006-03-11 Dinamo Bender W 4-026.0 1662 1147 86.82% 10.26% 2.92%+2.71 +3.6 41
2006-03-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-426.0 1147 1662 2.92% 10.26% 86.82%-2.71 -3.6 7
2006-03-15 FC Tiraspol D 1-152.8 1143 1428 11.21% 29.37% 59.43%-1.13 +4.1 8
2006-03-15 @ Dinamo Bender D 1-152.8 1428 1143 59.43% 29.37% 11.21%+1.13 -4.1 21
2006-03-15 Politehnica Chisinau W 1-031.8 1666 1175 85.46% 11.27% 3.27%+2.59 +1.1 44
2006-03-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-131.8 1175 1666 3.27% 11.27% 85.46%-2.59 -1.1 14
2006-03-15 Tiligul-Tiras D 0-047.5 1374 1401 34.87% 37.75% 27.38%+0.11 -0.6 15
2006-03-15 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-047.5 1401 1374 27.38% 37.75% 34.87%-0.11 +0.6 19
2006-03-15 Zimbru D 1-155.6 1384 1500 23.18% 37.17% 39.65%-0.31 +1.2 19
2006-03-15 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-155.6 1500 1384 39.65% 37.17% 23.18%+0.31 -1.2 30
2006-03-19 Dacia Chisinau W 3-146.6 1401 1385 40.68% 36.98% 22.33%+0.32 +17.9 22
2006-03-19 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 1-346.6 1385 1401 22.33% 36.98% 40.68%-0.32 -17.9 19
2006-03-19 Nistru Otaci W 1-042.9 1424 1373 45.05% 35.92% 19.03%+0.48 +9.7 24
2006-03-19 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-142.9 1373 1424 19.03% 35.92% 45.05%-0.48 -9.7 15
2006-03-19 Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-364.4 1498 1667 18.09% 35.50% 46.41%-0.57 -8.3 30
2006-03-19 @ Zimbru W 3-264.4 1667 1498 46.41% 35.50% 18.09%+0.57 +8.3 47
2006-03-19 Dinamo Bender W 1-040.3 1174 1147 42.06% 36.69% 21.24%+0.37 +10.6 17
2006-03-19 @ Politehnica Chisinau L 0-140.3 1147 1174 21.24% 36.69% 42.06%-0.37 -10.6 8
2006-03-24 FC Tiraspol L 1-252.3 1367 1433 29.32% 37.86% 32.82%-0.08 -12.4 19
2006-03-24 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-152.3 1433 1367 32.82% 37.86% 29.32%+0.08 +12.4 27
2006-03-24 Nistru Otaci D 1-151.5 1137 1364 14.05% 32.74% 53.22%-0.85 +3.3 9
2006-03-24 @ Dinamo Bender D 1-151.5 1364 1137 53.22% 32.74% 14.05%+0.85 -3.3 16
2006-03-24 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-151.7 1675 1419 67.28% 24.31% 8.41%+1.47 +3.7 50
2006-03-24 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-251.7 1419 1675 8.41% 24.31% 67.28%-1.47 -3.7 22
2006-03-24 Zimbru L 0-135.9 1185 1490 10.37% 28.05% 61.58%-1.23 -5.2 17
2006-03-24 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-035.9 1490 1185 61.58% 28.05% 10.37%+1.23 +5.2 33
2006-03-28 Dacia Chisinau D 2-259.6 1446 1355 49.92% 34.20% 15.87%+0.68 -2.1 28
2006-03-28 @ FC Tiraspol D 2-259.6 1355 1446 15.87% 34.20% 49.92%-0.68 +2.1 20
2006-03-28 Politehnica Chisinau D 1-156.3 1495 1179 72.76% 20.49% 6.75%+1.76 -5.6 34
2006-03-28 @ Zimbru D 1-156.3 1179 1495 6.75% 20.49% 72.76%-1.76 +5.6 18
2006-03-28 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-168.2 1416 1679 12.15% 30.66% 57.19%-1.02 +19.9 25
2006-03-28 @ Tiligul-Tiras L 1-268.2 1679 1416 57.19% 30.66% 12.15%+1.02 -19.9 50
2006-03-28 Dinamo Bender W 3-136.8 1361 1140 63.82% 26.62% 9.56%+1.30 +7.7 19
2006-03-28 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-336.8 1140 1361 9.56% 26.62% 63.82%-1.30 -7.6 9
2006-04-01 Dacia Chisinau W 3-038.8 1368 1357 40.02% 37.11% 22.87%+0.29 +30.6 22
2006-04-01 @ Nistru Otaci L 0-338.8 1357 1368 22.87% 37.11% 40.02%-0.29 -30.6 20
2006-04-01 Politehnica Chisinau L 0-151.3 1436 1185 66.77% 24.66% 8.57%+1.44 -23.3 25
2006-04-01 @ Tiligul-Tiras W 1-051.3 1185 1436 8.57% 24.66% 66.77%-1.44 +23.3 21
2006-04-01 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-059.4 1444 1659 14.74% 33.35% 51.91%-0.79 +3.4 29
2006-04-01 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-059.4 1659 1444 51.91% 33.35% 14.74%+0.79 -3.4 51
2006-04-01 Dinamo Bender W 7-027.5 1490 1132 76.25% 17.99% 5.76%+1.95 +14.2 37
2006-04-01 @ Zimbru L 0-727.5 1132 1490 5.76% 17.99% 76.25%-1.95 -14.2 9
2006-04-09 Dacia Chisinau W 1-048.6 1118 1327 15.19% 33.70% 51.11%-0.76 +19.4 12
2006-04-09 @ Dinamo Bender L 0-148.6 1327 1118 51.11% 33.70% 15.19%+0.76 -19.4 20
2006-04-09 FC Tiraspol D 0-047.5 1208 1447 13.38% 32.08% 54.54%-0.91 +3.9 22
2006-04-09 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 0-047.5 1447 1208 54.54% 32.08% 13.38%+0.91 -3.8 30
2006-04-09 Nistru Otaci W 4-144.7 1656 1399 67.38% 24.24% 8.38%+1.47 +9.1 54
2006-04-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-444.7 1399 1656 8.38% 24.24% 67.38%-1.47 -9.1 22
2006-04-09 Tiligul-Tiras W 1-044.8 1504 1412 50.02% 34.16% 15.81%+0.68 +8.3 40
2006-04-09 @ Zimbru L 0-144.8 1412 1504 15.81% 34.16% 50.02%-0.68 -8.3 25
2006-04-18 Politehnica Chisinau W 2-141.6 1390 1212 59.45% 29.35% 11.20%+1.09 +5.4 25
2006-04-18 @ Nistru Otaci L 1-241.6 1212 1390 11.20% 29.35% 59.45%-1.09 -5.4 22
2006-04-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-141.7 1307 1665 8.58% 24.67% 66.76%-1.48 -4.0 20
2006-04-18 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-041.7 1665 1307 66.76% 24.67% 8.58%+1.48 +4.1 57
2006-04-18 Dinamo Bender D 1-154.4 1404 1138 68.27% 23.63% 8.10%+1.52 -5.1 26
2006-04-18 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 1-154.4 1138 1404 8.10% 23.63% 68.27%-1.52 +5.1 13
2006-04-18 Zimbru D 0-052.7 1443 1512 28.93% 37.84% 33.23%-0.09 +0.3 31
2006-04-18 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-052.7 1512 1443 33.23% 37.84% 28.93%+0.09 -0.3 41
2006-04-22 Politehnica Chisinau W 1-038.1 1303 1207 50.55% 33.94% 15.50%+0.70 +8.1 23
2006-04-22 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-138.1 1207 1303 15.50% 33.94% 50.55%-0.70 -8.1 22
2006-04-22 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-729.8 1143 1669 4.48% 14.62% 80.90%-2.29 -7.3 13
2006-04-22 @ Dinamo Bender W 7-129.8 1669 1143 80.90% 14.62% 4.48%+2.29 +7.3 60
2006-04-22 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-149.9 1444 1399 44.38% 36.11% 19.51%+0.46 +9.3 34
2006-04-22 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-249.9 1399 1444 19.51% 36.11% 44.38%-0.46 -9.3 26
2006-04-22 Zimbru D 1-156.4 1395 1512 23.04% 37.14% 39.82%-0.32 +1.3 26
2006-04-22 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-156.4 1512 1395 39.82% 37.14% 23.04%+0.32 -1.3 42
2006-04-29 Dacia Chisinau W 2-144.1 1511 1311 61.71% 27.97% 10.32%+1.20 +4.9 45
2006-04-29 @ Zimbru L 1-244.1 1311 1511 10.32% 27.97% 61.71%-1.20 -4.9 23
2006-04-29 Nistru Otaci D 0-047.8 1389 1396 37.62% 37.48% 24.91%+0.21 -1.1 27
2006-04-29 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 0-047.8 1396 1389 24.91% 37.48% 37.62%-0.21 +1.1 27
2006-04-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-232.6 1199 1676 5.47% 17.25% 77.28%-2.05 -4.1 22
2006-04-29 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 2-032.6 1676 1199 77.28% 17.25% 5.47%+2.05 +4.1 63
2006-04-29 Dinamo Bender D 0-050.5 1453 1135 72.92% 20.38% 6.70%+1.76 -6.2 35
2006-04-29 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-050.5 1135 1453 6.70% 20.38% 72.92%-1.76 +6.2 14
2006-05-05 FC Tiraspol D 1-154.2 1397 1447 31.66% 37.88% 30.46%+0.00 -0.1 28
2006-05-05 @ Nistru Otaci D 1-154.2 1447 1397 30.46% 37.88% 31.66%+0.00 +0.1 36
2006-05-05 Politehnica Chisinau D 0-044.5 1142 1194 31.16% 37.89% 30.95%-0.01 -0.0 15
2006-05-05 @ Dinamo Bender D 0-044.5 1194 1142 30.95% 37.89% 31.16%+0.01 +0.0 23
2006-05-05 Zimbru D 0-062.9 1680 1516 58.12% 30.13% 11.75%+1.03 -4.4 64
2006-05-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-062.9 1516 1680 11.75% 30.13% 58.12%-1.03 +4.4 46
2006-05-06 Tiligul-Tiras W 2-043.8 1306 1388 27.17% 37.73% 35.10%-0.15 +27.9 26
2006-05-06 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-243.8 1388 1306 35.10% 37.73% 27.17%+0.15 -27.9 27
2006-05-09 Zimbru L 0-133.7 1142 1520 7.96% 23.33% 68.70%-1.58 -3.7 15
2006-05-09 @ Dinamo Bender W 1-033.7 1520 1142 68.70% 23.33% 7.96%+1.58 +3.7 49
2006-05-20 FC Tiraspol W 2-153.4 1676 1447 64.67% 26.06% 9.27%+1.34 +4.2 67
2006-05-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-253.4 1447 1676 9.27% 26.06% 64.67%-1.34 -4.2 36
2006-05-20 Nistru Otaci D 1-151.9 1334 1397 29.72% 37.87% 32.41%-0.06 +0.2 27
2006-05-20 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-151.9 1397 1334 32.41% 37.87% 29.72%+0.06 -0.2 29
2006-05-20 Tiligul-Tiras L 0-139.7 1195 1361 18.31% 35.60% 46.09%-0.56 -9.4 23
2006-05-20 @ Politehnica Chisinau W 1-039.7 1361 1195 46.09% 35.60% 18.31%+0.56 +9.4 30
2006-05-24 Politehnica Chisinau D 1-154.8 1443 1185 67.44% 24.20% 8.36%+1.48 -5.0 37
2006-05-24 @ FC Tiraspol D 1-154.8 1185 1443 8.36% 24.20% 67.44%-1.48 +5.0 24
2006-05-24 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-059.7 1397 1680 11.27% 29.46% 59.27%-1.12 +4.6 30
2006-05-24 @ Nistru Otaci D 0-059.7 1680 1397 59.27% 29.46% 11.27%+1.12 -4.6 68
2006-05-24 Dinamo Bender W 5-236.9 1334 1138 61.40% 28.16% 10.44%+1.18 +10.5 30
2006-05-24 @ Dacia Chisinau L 2-536.9 1138 1334 10.44% 28.16% 61.40%-1.18 -10.5 15
2006-05-24 Zimbru D 0-051.1 1370 1524 19.38% 36.06% 44.56%-0.50 +2.2 31
2006-05-24 @ Tiligul-Tiras D 0-051.1 1524 1370 44.56% 36.06% 19.38%+0.50 -2.2 50
2006-05-28 Dacia Chisinau W 3-037.1 1676 1345 74.04% 19.58% 6.38%+1.83 +7.4 71
2006-05-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-337.1 1345 1676 6.38% 19.58% 74.04%-1.83 -7.4 30
2006-05-28 FC Tiraspol W 1-046.6 1521 1438 49.08% 34.54% 16.38%+0.64 +8.5 53
2006-05-28 @ Zimbru L 0-146.6 1438 1521 16.38% 34.54% 49.08%-0.64 -8.5 37
2006-05-28 Nistru Otaci D 1-151.7 1190 1402 14.99% 33.54% 51.47%-0.78 +3.0 25
2006-05-28 @ Politehnica Chisinau D 1-151.7 1402 1190 51.47% 33.54% 14.99%+0.78 -3.0 31
2006-05-28 Tiligul-Tiras L 0-136.7 1127 1372 13.08% 31.75% 55.17%-0.93 -6.8 15
2006-05-28 @ Dinamo Bender W 1-036.7 1372 1127 55.17% 31.75% 13.08%+0.93 +6.8 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-10-02 7.46% Politehnica Chisinau 1134 2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1422 0
2 2006-04-01 8.57% Politehnica Chisinau 1185 1 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1436 0
3 2005-09-18 8.70% @ Politehnica Chisinau 1105 1 FC Tiraspol 1459 0
4 2006-03-28 12.15% @ Tiligul-Tiras 1416 2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1679 1
5 2005-11-06 12.64% @ Politehnica Chisinau 1170 2 Tiligul-Tiras 1424 1
6 2005-09-10 13.05% @ Dinamo Bender 1175 2 Nistru Otaci 1420 1
7 2005-10-15 14.50% Dacia Chisinau 1377 1 @ Zimbru 1489 0
8 2006-04-09 15.19% @ Dinamo Bender 1118 1 Dacia Chisinau 1327 0
9 2005-10-02 21.41% @ Nistru Otaci 1373 2 Zimbru 1505 1
10 2005-08-20 21.72% Zimbru 1423 2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1445 0
11 2005-08-20 22.65% Tiligul-Tiras 1421 1 @ Nistru Otaci 1434 0
12 2005-09-15 24.27% Dacia Chisinau 1403 2 @ Nistru Otaci 1401 1
13 2006-05-06 27.17% @ Dacia Chisinau 1306 2 Tiligul-Tiras 1388 0
14 2005-10-23 30.14% FC Tiraspol 1425 1 @ Nistru Otaci 1378 0
15 2005-09-11 30.86% FC Tiraspol 1468 2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1415 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-10-02 45.31 Politehnica Chisinau 2 1134 7.46% @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1422 70.34% 22.20%
2 2005-08-20 31.34 Zimbru 2 1423 21.72% @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1445 41.45% 36.83%
3 2006-04-01 30.59 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1368 40.02% Dacia Chisinau 0 1357 22.87% 37.11%
4 2006-05-06 27.92 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1306 27.17% Tiligul-Tiras 0 1388 35.10% 37.73%
5 2005-08-22 24.29 FC Tiraspol 4 1446 55.35% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1199 12.99% 31.66%
6 2006-04-01 23.33 Politehnica Chisinau 1 1185 8.57% @ Tiligul-Tiras 0 1436 66.77% 24.66%
7 2005-09-18 23.24 @ Politehnica Chisinau 1 1105 8.70% FC Tiraspol 0 1459 66.38% 24.92%
8 2005-09-14 21.45 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1594 39.31% @ FC Tiraspol 0 1481 23.46% 37.23%
9 2006-03-28 19.87 @ Tiligul-Tiras 2 1416 12.15% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1679 57.19% 30.66%
10 2005-10-15 19.77 Dacia Chisinau 1 1377 14.50% @ Zimbru 0 1489 52.37% 33.14%
11 2005-11-06 19.60 @ Politehnica Chisinau 2 1170 12.64% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1424 56.09% 31.26%
12 2006-04-09 19.41 @ Dinamo Bender 1 1118 15.19% Dacia Chisinau 0 1327 51.11% 33.70%
13 2005-09-10 19.37 @ Dinamo Bender 2 1175 13.05% Nistru Otaci 1 1420 55.22% 31.73%
14 2005-09-19 18.96 @ Zimbru 2 1472 43.87% Tiligul-Tiras 0 1432 19.88% 36.25%
15 2005-09-10 18.10 Zimbru 4 1443 62.19% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1132 10.14% 27.67%
16 2006-03-19 17.93 @ Tiligul-Tiras 3 1401 40.68% Dacia Chisinau 1 1385 22.33% 36.98%
17 2005-10-23 16.40 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1637 58.39% Zimbru 0 1469 11.63% 29.98%
18 2005-08-20 16.29 Tiligul-Tiras 1 1421 22.65% @ Nistru Otaci 0 1434 40.29% 37.06%
19 2005-10-02 15.78 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1373 21.41% Zimbru 1 1505 41.84% 36.74%
20 2006-03-11 15.41 @ Zimbru 2 1484 50.37% Nistru Otaci 0 1390 15.61% 34.02%
21 2005-09-15 14.83 Dacia Chisinau 2 1403 24.27% @ Nistru Otaci 1 1401 38.35% 37.38%
22 2005-11-06 14.78 Zimbru 3 1460 60.78% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1163 10.67% 28.55%
23 2006-04-01 14.25 @ Zimbru 7 1490 76.25% Dinamo Bender 0 1132 5.76% 17.99%
24 2005-11-20 14.02 Nistru Otaci 3 1375 48.94% @ Politehnica Chisinau 1 1186 16.46% 34.59%
25 2005-10-23 13.94 FC Tiraspol 1 1425 30.14% @ Nistru Otaci 0 1378 31.98% 37.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-03-28 68.2 @ Tiligul-Tiras 2 1416 12.15% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1679 57.19% 30.66%
2 2006-03-19 64.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1667 46.41% @ Zimbru 2 1498 18.09% 35.50%
3 2005-10-29 63.8 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1420 13.70% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1653 53.90% 32.40%
4 2006-05-05 62.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1680 58.12% Zimbru 0 1516 11.75% 30.13%
5 2005-10-29 59.8 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1439 44.10% Dacia Chisinau 2 1396 19.71% 36.19%
6 2006-05-24 59.7 @ Nistru Otaci 0 1397 11.27% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1680 59.27% 29.46%
7 2006-03-28 59.6 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1446 49.92% Dacia Chisinau 2 1355 15.87% 34.20%
8 2006-04-01 59.4 @ FC Tiraspol 0 1444 14.74% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1659 51.91% 33.35%
9 2005-11-16 57.9 @ Nistru Otaci 0 1371 11.23% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1655 59.36% 29.41%
10 2005-10-02 57.8 @ Nistru Otaci 2 1373 21.41% Zimbru 1 1505 41.84% 36.74%
11 2005-11-20 57.6 @ Dinamo Bender 2 1144 12.30% Tiligul-Tiras 2 1404 56.86% 30.84%
12 2006-04-22 56.4 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1395 23.04% Zimbru 1 1512 39.82% 37.14%
13 2006-03-28 56.3 @ Zimbru 1 1495 72.76% Politehnica Chisinau 1 1179 6.75% 20.49%
14 2005-11-06 55.6 @ Politehnica Chisinau 2 1170 12.64% Tiligul-Tiras 1 1424 56.09% 31.26%
15 2006-03-15 55.6 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1384 23.18% Zimbru 1 1500 39.65% 37.17%
16 2005-09-10 55.5 @ Dinamo Bender 2 1175 13.05% Nistru Otaci 1 1420 55.22% 31.73%
17 2005-11-16 55.3 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1404 28.63% Zimbru 1 1475 33.54% 37.83%
18 2005-09-11 55.1 FC Tiraspol 2 1468 30.86% @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1415 31.26% 37.89%
19 2005-08-29 55.0 @ Politehnica Chisinau 2 1132 32.55% Dinamo Bender 2 1175 29.59% 37.87%
20 2005-08-13 54.9 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1422 35.36% FC Tiraspol 1 1445 26.92% 37.71%
21 2005-09-15 54.9 Dacia Chisinau 2 1403 24.27% @ Nistru Otaci 1 1401 38.35% 37.38%
22 2006-05-24 54.8 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1443 67.44% Politehnica Chisinau 1 1185 8.36% 24.20%
23 2005-08-15 54.7 @ Zimbru 1 1424 37.26% Nistru Otaci 1 1434 25.22% 37.52%
24 2006-04-18 54.4 @ Tiligul-Tiras 1 1404 68.27% Dinamo Bender 1 1138 8.10% 23.63%
25 2006-05-05 54.2 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1397 31.66% FC Tiraspol 1 1447 30.46% 37.88%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-08-20 25.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1564 81.41% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1138 4.35% 14.25%
2 2006-03-11 26.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1662 86.82% Dinamo Bender 0 1147 2.92% 10.26%
3 2005-09-14 27.5 @ Tiligul-Tiras 3 1423 72.22% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1114 6.91% 20.87%
4 2006-04-01 27.5 @ Zimbru 7 1490 76.25% Dinamo Bender 0 1132 5.76% 17.99%
5 2006-04-22 29.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 7 1669 80.90% @ Dinamo Bender 1 1143 4.48% 14.62%
6 2005-09-10 30.3 Zimbru 4 1443 62.19% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1132 10.14% 27.67%
7 2005-11-06 31.4 Zimbru 3 1460 60.78% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1163 10.67% 28.55%
8 2006-03-15 31.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1666 85.46% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1175 3.27% 11.27%
9 2005-09-14 32.2 @ Zimbru 5 1461 68.29% Dinamo Bender 1 1195 8.09% 23.62%
10 2006-04-29 32.6 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1676 77.28% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1199 5.47% 17.25%
11 2005-08-22 32.9 FC Tiraspol 4 1446 55.35% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1199 12.99% 31.66%
12 2006-05-09 33.7 Zimbru 1 1520 68.70% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1142 7.96% 23.33%
13 2005-10-15 33.8 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1421 66.50% Dinamo Bender 0 1173 8.66% 24.84%
14 2005-10-02 34.0 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1632 75.59% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1176 5.94% 18.47%
15 2005-10-15 34.1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1634 75.51% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1179 5.97% 18.52%
16 2005-11-16 34.1 @ FC Tiraspol 1 1433 66.00% Politehnica Chisinau 0 1190 8.82% 25.18%
17 2005-09-19 34.9 Dacia Chisinau 2 1417 53.98% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1184 13.66% 32.36%
18 2005-10-29 35.0 @ Nistru Otaci 1 1364 61.35% Dinamo Bender 0 1168 10.46% 28.20%
19 2005-10-29 35.4 @ Zimbru 5 1453 69.13% Politehnica Chisinau 2 1178 7.83% 23.04%
20 2005-08-13 35.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1560 76.22% Dinamo Bender 1 1203 5.77% 18.02%
21 2006-03-24 35.9 Zimbru 1 1490 61.58% @ Politehnica Chisinau 0 1185 10.37% 28.05%
22 2006-05-28 36.7 Tiligul-Tiras 1 1372 55.17% @ Dinamo Bender 0 1127 13.08% 31.75%
23 2006-03-28 36.8 @ Nistru Otaci 3 1361 63.82% Dinamo Bender 1 1140 9.56% 26.62%
24 2006-05-24 36.9 @ Dacia Chisinau 5 1334 61.40% Dinamo Bender 2 1138 10.44% 28.16%
25 2006-05-28 37.1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1676 74.04% Dacia Chisinau 0 1345 6.38% 19.58%