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2014-15 Divizia Nationala Season

108 games

Final

Champion

Milsami Orhei

55 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Milsami Orhei

8.34 points above expected

55 points · 46.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zimbru

11.85 points below expected

27 points · 38.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Milsami Orhei 24 17 4 3 55 50 15 +35 46.66 +8.34
2 Dacia Chisinau 24 17 4 3 55 48 13 +35 47.58 +7.42
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 17 4 3 55 56 16 +40 55.94 -0.94
4 FC Tiraspol 24 14 2 8 44 49 28 +21 43.41 +0.59
5 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 24 8 6 10 30 20 30 -10 28.09 +1.91
6 Zimbru 24 7 6 11 27 23 19 +4 38.85 -11.85
7 Academia Chisinau 24 5 2 17 17 18 47 -29 18.70 -1.70
8 Dinamo-Auto 24 4 2 18 14 23 63 -40 14.82 -0.82
9 FC Zaria 24 4 0 20 12 10 66 -56 14.62 -2.62

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Milsami Orhei 55 46.66 +8.34
2 Dacia Chisinau 55 47.58 +7.42
3 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 30 28.09 +1.91
4 FC Tiraspol 44 43.41 +0.59
5 Dinamo-Auto 14 14.82 -0.82

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zimbru 27 38.85 -11.85
2 FC Zaria 12 14.62 -2.62
3 Academia Chisinau 17 18.70 -1.70
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 55 55.94 -0.94
5 Dinamo-Auto 14 14.82 -0.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Academia Chisinau 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 44
2 Dacia Chisinau 5 Nov 9 – Dec 12 1 in 19
3 Milsami Orhei 7 Dec 7 – Apr 11 1 in 19
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 6 Sep 13 – Nov 2 1 in 6
5 FC Tiraspol 4 Aug 2 – Aug 24 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 2 Apr 18 – Apr 24 1 in 89
2 Dinamo-Auto 13 Aug 2 – Dec 13 1 in 56
3 Academia Chisinau 8 Nov 28 – Apr 4 1 in 20
4 FC Zaria 7 Nov 28 – Apr 5 1 in 11
5 Zimbru 3 Dec 7 – Mar 4 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 16 Aug 24 – Apr 11 1 in 499
2 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 8 Jul 26 – Oct 4 1 in 428
3 Dinamo-Auto 4 Apr 18 – May 10 1 in 21
4 Dacia Chisinau 8 Aug 2 – Oct 4 1 in 15
5 Academia Chisinau 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 Aug 2 – Aug 24 1 in 44
2 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 5 Mar 1 – Apr 18 1 in 21
3 Zimbru 5 Aug 16 – Sep 27 1 in 14
4 FC Tiraspol 4 Sep 19 – Oct 25 1 in 13
5 Dacia Chisinau 3 Sep 28 – Nov 2 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1772 55 +40 13 11.7 +1.3
Milsami Orhei 1697 55 -1 12 11.4 +0.6
Dacia Chisinau 1706 55 +92 12 10.3 +1.7
FC Tiraspol 1517 44 -69 9 7.9 +1.1
Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1292 30 +72 6 2.7 +3.3
Zimbru 1418 27 -18 4 6.3 -2.3
Academia Chisinau 1168 17 -37 4 5.5 -1.5
Dinamo-Auto 1250 14 +116 8 5.1 +2.9
FC Zaria 985 12 -99 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC DC DIN FT FZ MO SC ST ZIM
Academia Chisinau —
0-0-3
0.88
1-1-1
4.86
0-0-3
1.22
2-0-1
5.07
0-1-2
1.00
0-0-3
3.02
0-0-3
0.68
2-0-1
1.22
Dacia Chisinau
3-0-0
7.72
 —
3-0-0
7.78
1-1-1
4.63
3-0-0
7.70
1-0-2
4.72
2-1-0
6.82
2-1-0
2.60
2-1-0
5.64
Dinamo-Auto
1-1-1
3.69
0-0-3
0.82
 —
0-0-3
1.02
2-0-1
4.25
0-0-3
0.91
1-0-2
2.26
0-0-3
0.66
0-1-2
1.31
FC Tiraspol
3-0-0
7.36
1-1-1
3.93
3-0-0
7.57
 —
3-0-0
7.63
1-0-2
3.39
2-0-1
6.36
0-0-3
2.30
1-1-1
4.79
FC Zaria
1-0-2
3.49
0-0-3
0.90
1-0-2
4.31
0-0-3
0.96
 —
0-0-3
0.91
2-0-1
1.56
0-0-3
0.61
0-0-3
1.20
Milsami Orhei
2-1-0
7.59
2-0-1
3.83
3-0-0
7.69
2-0-1
5.17
3-0-0
7.70
 —
1-1-1
6.13
1-2-0
2.86
3-0-0
5.51
Saxan Ceadir-Lunga
3-0-0
5.54
0-1-2
1.76
2-0-1
6.31
1-0-2
2.20
1-0-2
7.01
1-1-1
2.44
 —
0-1-2
1.16
0-3-0
2.61
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-0-0
7.93
0-1-2
5.96
3-0-0
7.96
3-0-0
6.27
3-0-0
8.02
0-2-1
5.70
2-1-0
7.42
 —
3-0-0
6.75
Zimbru
1-0-2
7.36
0-1-2
2.92
2-1-0
7.27
1-1-1
3.77
3-0-0
7.38
0-0-3
3.05
0-3-0
5.96
0-0-3
1.82
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +9.9
Allowed 0.78 -7.8
Differential 0.94 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.26%11.11%6.94%4.63%4.63%2.78%39.35%
111.11%4.63%5.56%2.31%0.93%1.39%25.93%
26.94%5.56%—0.93%0.46%1.39%15.28%
34.63%2.31%0.93%———7.87%
44.63%0.93%0.46%———6.02%
5+2.78%1.39%1.39%———5.56%
Total39.35%25.93%15.28%7.87%6.02%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.62
CV 1.20 1.20 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—29.17%8.33%12.50%—4.17%54.17%
18.33%8.33%—8.33%4.17%4.17%33.33%
24.17%—————4.17%
34.17%—————4.17%
4———————
5+——4.17%———4.17%
Total16.67%37.50%12.50%20.83%4.17%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.96 -1.21
SD 1.19 1.85 2.30
CV 1.58 0.95 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——4.17%——20.83%
120.83%—8.33%———29.17%
216.67%4.17%————20.83%
38.33%—4.17%———12.50%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+—4.17%4.17%———8.33%
Total70.83%8.33%16.67%4.17%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.54 +1.46
SD 1.98 0.93 2.06
CV 0.99 1.72 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%8.33%20.83%8.33%4.17%8.33%54.17%
14.17%4.17%12.50%——4.17%25.00%
2—————8.33%8.33%
3———————
44.17%4.17%————8.33%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total12.50%20.83%33.33%8.33%4.17%20.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 2.62 -1.67
SD 1.46 2.24 2.84
CV 1.52 0.85 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%4.17%—8.33%—25.00%
18.33%—8.33%4.17%——20.83%
24.17%12.50%——4.17%—20.83%
34.17%8.33%————12.50%
412.50%—————12.50%
5+4.17%4.17%————8.33%
Total41.67%29.17%12.50%4.17%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 1.17 +0.88
SD 1.97 1.37 2.77
CV 0.96 1.18 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%12.50%8.33%20.83%12.50%70.83%
18.33%——4.17%—4.17%16.67%
28.33%————4.17%12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%12.50%12.50%20.83%20.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.42 2.75 -2.33
SD 0.72 1.96 2.28
CV 1.72 0.71 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%4.17%———16.67%
112.50%8.33%4.17%———25.00%
28.33%16.67%————25.00%
34.17%8.33%4.17%———16.67%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+12.50%—————12.50%
Total50.00%37.50%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 0.62 +1.46
SD 1.67 0.71 1.98
CV 0.80 1.14 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%8.33%4.17%8.33%—45.83%
116.67%12.50%—4.17%4.17%—37.50%
24.17%4.17%————8.33%
34.17%—————4.17%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total37.50%33.33%8.33%8.33%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.25 -0.42
SD 1.05 1.39 1.95
CV 1.26 1.11 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—————12.50%
116.67%4.17%4.17%———25.00%
24.17%12.50%—8.33%——25.00%
312.50%—————12.50%
412.50%—4.17%———16.67%
5+4.17%—4.17%———8.33%
Total62.50%16.67%12.50%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.67 +1.67
SD 1.81 1.01 1.95
CV 0.78 1.51 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.83%25.00%4.17%4.17%——54.17%
14.17%4.17%12.50%———20.83%
212.50%—————12.50%
34.17%4.17%————8.33%
4———————
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total45.83%33.33%16.67%4.17%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 0.79 +0.17
SD 1.46 0.88 1.90
CV 1.52 1.12 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1772 55 55.94 -0.94 52.0% 42 46 52 55 60 64 68
Dacia Chisinau 1706 55 47.58 +7.42 91.0% 35 40 43 47 51 58 62
Milsami Orhei 1697 55 46.66 +8.34 97.0% 34 37 43 47 51 55 60
FC Tiraspol 1517 44 43.41 +0.59 59.0% 31 33 40 43 47 53 57
Zimbru 1418 27 38.85 -11.85 0.0% 29 30 35 38 43 48 54
Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1292 30 28.09 +1.91 63.0% 15 19 23 28 32 37 43
Dinamo-Auto 1250 14 14.82 -0.82 47.0% 4 6 12 15 18 22 25
Academia Chisinau 1168 17 18.70 -1.70 44.0% 10 11 15 18 22 26 31
FC Zaria 985 12 14.62 -2.62 35.0% 7 8 11 14 17 24 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.33%
Slight Edge
47.22%13.89%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.58 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
Milsami Orhei, 3rd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.280.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.19 * Some Luck: 4.19 to 6.29 * Lucky: 6.29 to 8.39 * Wild Swing: 8.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.54 * Close: 0.54 to 0.81 * Off: 0.81 to 1.08 * Way Off: 1.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.58 points
Some Luck
05.2413
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Close
00.681.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
97.00%
Milsami Orhei
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Zimbru
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Top-Heavy
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 271.50
2.65
Moderate Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
93%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.60
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.09
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.75
Some Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.060
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Milsami Orhei7.00%35.00%26.00%19.00%13.00%————
Dacia Chisinau12.00%29.00%30.00%24.00%5.00%————
Sheriff Tiraspol75.00%15.00%7.00%3.00%—————
FC Tiraspol5.00%18.00%25.00%29.00%19.00%4.00%———
Saxan Ceadir-Lunga——1.00%2.00%7.00%77.00%11.00%1.00%1.00%
Zimbru1.00%3.00%11.00%23.00%56.00%5.00%1.00%——
Academia Chisinau—————11.00%44.00%38.00%7.00%
Dinamo-Auto——————24.00%36.00%40.00%
FC Zaria—————3.00%20.00%25.00%52.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Academia Chisinau 100%
Dacia Chisinau 100%
Dinamo-Auto 100%
FC Tiraspol 100%
FC Zaria 100%
Milsami Orhei 100%
Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 100%
Sheriff Tiraspol 100%
Zimbru 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-07-25 FC Tiraspol W 2-158.7 1713 1568 64.33% 14.53% 21.14%+0.95 +11.3 3
2014-07-25 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-258.7 1568 1713 21.14% 14.53% 64.33%-0.95 -11.3 0
2014-07-26 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 1-161.4 1483 1346 63.43% 14.55% 22.02%+0.90 -5.1 1
2014-07-26 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-161.4 1346 1483 22.02% 14.55% 63.43%-0.90 +5.1 1
2014-07-27 Academia Chisinau W 1-042.7 1166 1193 42.88% 14.73% 42.39%+0.01 +22.3 3
2014-07-27 @ FC Zaria L 0-142.7 1193 1166 42.39% 14.73% 42.88%-0.01 -22.3 0
2014-08-02 Dinamo-Auto W 8-131.4 1557 1250 76.47% 13.99% 9.54%+1.83 +28.2 3
2014-08-02 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-831.4 1250 1557 9.54% 13.99% 76.47%-1.83 -28.2 0
2014-08-02 Milsami Orhei W 2-047.4 1535 1477 54.39% 14.68% 30.93%+0.47 +31.9 3
2014-08-02 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-247.4 1477 1535 30.93% 14.68% 54.39%-0.47 -32.0 1
2014-08-02 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-170.0 1351 1724 9.16% 13.96% 76.88%-1.88 +8.8 2
2014-08-02 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 1-170.0 1724 1351 76.88% 13.96% 9.16%+1.88 -8.8 4
2014-08-03 Zimbru L 0-232.3 1171 1551 8.79% 13.92% 77.28%-1.92 -9.9 0
2014-08-03 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-032.3 1551 1171 77.28% 13.92% 8.79%+1.92 +9.8 3
2014-08-08 FC Tiraspol L 0-135.1 1188 1585 8.09% 13.85% 78.06%-2.01 -4.8 3
2014-08-08 @ FC Zaria W 1-035.1 1585 1188 78.06% 13.85% 8.09%+2.01 +4.8 6
2014-08-08 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-335.0 1221 1360 28.05% 14.65% 57.30%-0.60 -42.5 0
2014-08-08 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-035.0 1360 1221 57.30% 14.65% 28.05%+0.60 +42.6 5
2014-08-10 Dacia Chisinau L 1-271.8 1716 1567 64.71% 14.52% 20.77%+0.97 -31.1 4
2014-08-10 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-171.8 1567 1716 20.77% 14.52% 64.71%-0.97 +31.1 6
2014-08-16 Zimbru W 2-160.1 1590 1561 50.62% 14.71% 34.67%+0.31 +17.7 9
2014-08-16 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-260.1 1561 1590 34.67% 14.71% 50.62%-0.31 -17.7 3
2014-08-17 FC Zaria W 1-035.0 1403 1183 70.85% 14.32% 14.83%+1.36 +8.6 8
2014-08-17 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-135.0 1183 1403 14.83% 14.32% 70.85%-1.36 -8.6 3
2014-08-17 Dinamo-Auto W 2-032.1 1598 1179 81.26% 13.45% 5.29%+2.44 +6.0 9
2014-08-17 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-232.1 1179 1598 5.29% 13.45% 81.26%-2.44 -6.0 0
2014-08-23 Dacia Chisinau L 0-232.6 1175 1604 6.82% 13.70% 79.48%-2.18 -7.7 3
2014-08-23 @ FC Zaria W 2-032.6 1604 1175 79.48% 13.70% 6.82%+2.18 +7.7 12
2014-08-24 FC Tiraspol L 0-330.3 1161 1607 6.23% 13.61% 80.16%-2.28 -10.2 0
2014-08-24 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-030.3 1607 1161 80.16% 13.61% 6.23%+2.28 +10.2 12
2014-08-24 Milsami Orhei D 0-067.5 1684 1445 72.27% 14.26% 13.47%+1.46 -8.4 5
2014-08-24 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-067.5 1445 1684 13.47% 14.26% 72.27%-1.46 +8.4 2
2014-08-24 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 0-061.2 1544 1411 63.03% 14.56% 22.42%+0.88 -5.6 4
2014-08-24 @ Zimbru D 0-061.2 1411 1544 22.42% 14.56% 63.03%-0.88 +5.6 9
2014-08-29 Dinamo-Auto W 6-027.8 1454 1173 75.00% 14.10% 10.90%+1.69 +33.7 5
2014-08-29 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-627.8 1173 1454 10.90% 14.10% 75.00%-1.69 -33.7 0
2014-08-30 Academia Chisinau W 1-034.0 1417 1151 74.10% 14.16% 11.75%+1.61 +6.9 12
2014-08-30 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-134.0 1151 1417 11.75% 14.16% 74.10%-1.61 -6.9 0
2014-08-31 Zimbru D 0-068.0 1611 1538 56.38% 14.66% 28.96%+0.56 -3.7 13
2014-08-31 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-068.0 1538 1611 28.96% 14.66% 56.38%-0.56 +3.7 5
2014-09-13 Milsami Orhei L 1-337.4 1167 1488 11.97% 14.17% 73.86%-1.59 -11.5 3
2014-09-13 @ FC Zaria W 3-137.4 1488 1167 73.86% 14.17% 11.97%+1.59 +11.5 8
2014-09-13 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-239.2 1139 1676 3.83% 13.11% 83.06%-2.77 -2.1 0
2014-09-13 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-139.2 1676 1139 83.06% 13.11% 3.83%+2.77 +2.2 8
2014-09-14 Dacia Chisinau L 0-133.9 1144 1608 5.67% 13.52% 80.81%-2.37 -3.4 0
2014-09-14 @ Academia Chisinau W 1-033.9 1608 1144 80.81% 13.52% 5.67%+2.37 +3.4 16
2014-09-19 FC Tiraspol W 2-058.2 1424 1617 22.09% 14.55% 63.36%-0.90 +60.8 15
2014-09-19 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-258.2 1617 1424 63.36% 14.55% 22.09%+0.90 -60.8 12
2014-09-20 FC Zaria W 4-029.2 1678 1155 84.14% 12.84% 3.02%+3.01 +6.4 11
2014-09-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-429.2 1155 1678 3.02% 12.84% 84.14%-3.01 -6.4 3
2014-09-20 Zimbru W 1-054.7 1499 1542 40.68% 14.73% 44.59%-0.07 +23.3 11
2014-09-20 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-154.7 1542 1499 44.59% 14.73% 40.68%+0.07 -23.3 5
2014-09-27 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-153.7 1518 1685 24.95% 14.61% 60.45%-0.75 -14.0 5
2014-09-27 @ Zimbru W 1-053.7 1685 1518 60.45% 14.61% 24.95%+0.75 +14.0 14
2014-09-28 Dacia Chisinau D 0-068.4 1557 1611 39.03% 14.73% 46.24%-0.14 +0.9 13
2014-09-28 @ FC Tiraspol D 0-068.4 1611 1557 46.24% 14.73% 39.03%+0.14 -0.9 17
2014-09-28 Dinamo-Auto W 2-038.9 1149 1137 48.41% 14.72% 36.87%+0.22 +37.3 6
2014-09-28 @ FC Zaria L 0-238.9 1137 1149 36.87% 14.72% 48.41%-0.22 -37.3 0
2014-09-28 Milsami Orhei D 1-158.7 1140 1522 8.74% 13.92% 77.34%-1.93 +8.9 1
2014-09-28 @ Academia Chisinau D 1-158.7 1522 1140 77.34% 13.92% 8.74%+1.93 -8.9 12
2014-10-03 Zimbru L 0-328.8 1100 1504 7.76% 13.81% 78.43%-2.05 -12.6 0
2014-10-03 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-028.8 1504 1100 78.43% 13.81% 7.76%+2.05 +12.7 8
2014-10-04 Academia Chisinau W 3-030.7 1699 1149 84.71% 12.68% 2.61%+3.16 +4.2 17
2014-10-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-330.7 1149 1699 2.61% 12.68% 84.71%-3.16 -4.2 1
2014-10-04 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 0-066.3 1610 1485 62.30% 14.57% 23.13%+0.84 -5.4 18
2014-10-04 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-066.3 1485 1610 23.13% 14.57% 62.30%-0.84 +5.4 16
2014-10-19 FC Zaria W 6-027.8 1517 1186 77.69% 13.89% 8.43%+1.96 +26.2 11
2014-10-19 @ Zimbru L 0-627.8 1186 1517 8.43% 13.89% 77.69%-1.96 -26.2 6
2014-10-19 Dinamo-Auto W 2-037.0 1145 1087 54.48% 14.68% 30.84%+0.47 +31.9 4
2014-10-19 @ Academia Chisinau L 0-237.0 1087 1145 30.84% 14.68% 54.48%-0.47 -31.9 0
2014-10-19 Milsami Orhei L 1-263.0 1558 1513 52.70% 14.70% 32.60%+0.40 -25.5 13
2014-10-19 @ FC Tiraspol W 2-163.0 1513 1558 32.60% 14.70% 52.70%-0.40 +25.5 15
2014-10-24 FC Zaria W 5-244.0 1177 1160 49.09% 14.72% 36.20%+0.25 +38.9 7
2014-10-24 @ Academia Chisinau L 2-544.0 1160 1177 36.20% 14.72% 49.09%-0.25 -38.9 6
2014-10-25 Milsami Orhei L 0-250.7 1490 1539 39.82% 14.73% 45.45%-0.11 -39.8 16
2014-10-25 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 2-050.7 1539 1490 45.45% 14.73% 39.82%+0.11 +39.8 18
2014-10-25 Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-460.6 1532 1703 24.44% 14.60% 60.96%-0.77 -20.0 13
2014-10-25 @ FC Tiraspol W 4-260.6 1703 1532 60.96% 14.60% 24.44%+0.77 +20.0 20
2014-11-01 FC Tiraspol L 0-132.0 1055 1512 5.89% 13.56% 80.55%-2.33 -3.5 0
2014-11-01 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-032.0 1512 1055 80.55% 13.56% 5.89%+2.33 +3.5 16
2014-11-02 Academia Chisinau L 0-155.7 1543 1216 77.52% 13.90% 8.57%+1.95 -39.7 11
2014-11-02 @ Zimbru W 1-055.7 1216 1543 8.57% 13.90% 77.52%-1.95 +39.7 10
2014-11-02 Dacia Chisinau W 3-054.4 1579 1605 43.08% 14.73% 42.18%+0.02 +60.8 21
2014-11-02 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-354.4 1605 1579 42.18% 14.73% 43.08%-0.02 -60.8 18
2014-11-02 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 4-043.3 1723 1450 74.49% 14.13% 11.38%+1.65 +24.0 23
2014-11-02 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-443.3 1450 1723 11.38% 14.13% 74.49%-1.65 -24.0 16
2014-11-08 FC Zaria W 2-030.4 1515 1121 80.39% 13.58% 6.03%+2.31 +6.8 19
2014-11-08 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-230.4 1121 1515 6.03% 13.58% 80.39%-2.31 -6.8 6
2014-11-09 Dinamo-Auto W 2-136.7 1426 1052 79.63% 13.68% 6.69%+2.20 +3.8 19
2014-11-09 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 1-236.7 1052 1426 6.69% 13.68% 79.63%-2.20 -3.8 0
2014-11-09 Sheriff Tiraspol W 3-276.2 1544 1747 21.15% 14.53% 64.33%-0.95 +29.3 21
2014-11-09 @ Dacia Chisinau L 2-376.2 1747 1544 64.33% 14.53% 21.15%+0.95 -29.3 23
2014-11-22 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 2-050.2 1114 1430 12.26% 14.19% 73.55%-1.56 +70.9 9
2014-11-22 @ FC Zaria L 0-250.2 1430 1114 73.55% 14.19% 12.26%+1.56 -70.9 19
2014-11-23 Dacia Chisinau L 0-229.6 1048 1573 4.08% 13.18% 82.74%-2.71 -4.6 0
2014-11-23 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-029.6 1573 1048 82.74% 13.18% 4.08%+2.71 +4.6 24
2014-11-23 FC Tiraspol W 3-155.9 1504 1522 44.13% 14.73% 41.14%+0.06 +35.5 14
2014-11-23 @ Zimbru L 1-355.9 1522 1504 41.14% 14.73% 44.13%-0.06 -35.5 19
2014-11-28 Academia Chisinau W 3-139.2 1487 1255 71.72% 14.28% 14.00%+1.42 +13.4 22
2014-11-28 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-339.2 1255 1487 14.00% 14.28% 71.72%-1.42 -13.4 10
2014-11-28 FC Zaria W 3-030.1 1578 1185 80.32% 13.59% 6.09%+2.30 +10.0 27
2014-11-28 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-330.1 1185 1578 6.09% 13.59% 80.32%-2.30 -10.0 9
2014-11-29 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-071.6 1640 1718 35.77% 14.72% 49.52%-0.27 +1.8 22
2014-11-29 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-071.6 1718 1640 49.52% 14.72% 35.77%+0.27 -1.8 24
2014-11-29 Zimbru D 0-059.3 1359 1539 23.49% 14.58% 61.94%-0.82 +5.3 20
2014-11-29 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 0-059.3 1539 1359 61.94% 14.58% 23.49%+0.82 -5.3 15
2014-12-06 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-139.8 1242 1365 30.04% 14.67% 55.28%-0.51 -16.5 10
2014-12-06 @ Academia Chisinau W 1-039.8 1365 1242 55.28% 14.67% 30.04%+0.51 +16.5 23
2014-12-07 Dacia Chisinau L 0-155.9 1534 1588 39.11% 14.73% 46.17%-0.14 -20.8 15
2014-12-07 @ Zimbru W 1-055.9 1588 1534 46.17% 14.73% 39.11%+0.14 +20.8 30
2014-12-07 Milsami Orhei L 0-525.7 1043 1641 2.75% 12.74% 84.52%-3.10 -7.2 0
2014-12-07 @ Dinamo-Auto W 5-025.7 1641 1043 84.52% 12.74% 2.75%+3.10 +7.2 25
2014-12-12 Academia Chisinau W 1-035.9 1609 1226 79.95% 13.64% 6.41%+2.25 +3.8 33
2014-12-12 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-135.9 1226 1609 6.41% 13.64% 79.95%-2.25 -3.8 10
2014-12-13 FC Zaria W 4-029.3 1649 1175 82.91% 13.14% 3.95%+2.74 +8.4 28
2014-12-13 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-429.3 1175 1649 3.95% 13.14% 82.91%-2.74 -8.4 9
2014-12-13 Dinamo-Auto W 7-230.0 1716 1036 86.93% 11.79% 1.28%+3.87 +2.3 27
2014-12-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-730.0 1036 1716 1.28% 11.79% 86.93%-3.87 -2.3 0
2015-02-28 Milsami Orhei L 0-251.5 1513 1657 27.47% 14.64% 57.89%-0.63 -28.8 15
2015-02-28 @ Zimbru W 2-051.5 1657 1513 57.89% 14.64% 27.47%+0.63 +28.8 31
2015-02-28 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-136.3 1167 1718 3.54% 13.03% 83.43%-2.85 -2.1 9
2015-02-28 @ FC Zaria W 1-036.3 1718 1167 83.43% 13.03% 3.54%+2.85 +2.1 30
2015-03-01 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 4-037.3 1500 1381 61.64% 14.58% 23.77%+0.81 +47.9 25
2015-03-01 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-437.3 1381 1500 23.77% 14.58% 61.64%-0.81 -47.9 23
2015-03-04 Academia Chisinau W 1-037.3 1686 1222 82.65% 13.20% 4.15%+2.69 +2.5 34
2015-03-04 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-137.3 1222 1686 4.15% 13.20% 82.65%-2.69 -2.5 10
2015-03-04 FC Zaria W 4-041.3 1034 1165 29.02% 14.66% 56.32%-0.56 +103.0 3
2015-03-04 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-441.3 1165 1034 56.32% 14.66% 29.02%+0.56 -103.0 9
2015-03-04 Zimbru W 3-046.2 1720 1484 72.05% 14.27% 13.68%+1.45 +21.9 33
2015-03-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-346.2 1484 1720 13.68% 14.27% 72.05%-1.45 -21.9 15
2015-03-05 FC Tiraspol L 1-266.5 1612 1548 55.27% 14.67% 30.05%+0.51 -26.6 33
2015-03-05 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-166.5 1548 1612 30.05% 14.67% 55.27%-0.51 +26.7 28
2015-03-08 Dinamo-Auto W 2-031.0 1462 1137 77.43% 13.91% 8.66%+1.93 +9.7 18
2015-03-08 @ Zimbru L 0-231.0 1137 1462 8.66% 13.91% 77.43%-1.93 -9.7 3
2015-03-08 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-335.1 1219 1742 4.13% 13.19% 82.67%-2.69 -6.8 10
2015-03-08 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-035.1 1742 1219 82.67% 13.19% 4.13%+2.69 +6.8 36
2015-03-09 Dacia Chisinau L 0-141.8 1333 1586 16.76% 14.40% 68.84%-1.22 -9.7 23
2015-03-09 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 1-041.8 1586 1333 68.84% 14.40% 16.76%+1.22 +9.7 36
2015-03-14 Zimbru L 0-132.4 1062 1472 7.53% 13.79% 78.68%-2.08 -4.5 9
2015-03-14 @ FC Zaria W 1-032.4 1472 1062 78.68% 13.79% 7.53%+2.08 +4.5 21
2015-03-15 Academia Chisinau W 1-045.1 1127 1213 34.78% 14.71% 50.51%-0.31 +26.0 6
2015-03-15 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-145.1 1213 1127 50.51% 14.71% 34.78%+0.31 -26.0 10
2015-03-15 FC Tiraspol W 1-054.7 1688 1575 61.03% 14.60% 24.37%+0.78 +13.7 37
2015-03-15 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-154.7 1575 1688 24.37% 14.60% 61.03%-0.78 -13.7 28
2015-03-20 Academia Chisinau W 5-028.0 1561 1187 79.62% 13.68% 6.70%+2.20 +17.6 31
2015-03-20 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-528.0 1187 1561 6.70% 13.68% 79.62%-2.20 -17.6 10
2015-03-20 Dinamo-Auto W 6-233.6 1595 1153 82.01% 13.32% 4.67%+2.57 +7.1 39
2015-03-20 @ Dacia Chisinau L 2-633.6 1153 1595 4.67% 13.32% 82.01%-2.57 -7.0 6
2015-03-20 Zimbru D 1-160.6 1323 1477 26.41% 14.63% 58.96%-0.68 +4.0 24
2015-03-20 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga D 1-160.6 1477 1323 58.96% 14.63% 26.41%+0.68 -4.0 22
2015-03-21 FC Zaria W 6-026.8 1749 1057 87.10% 11.70% 1.20%+3.93 +3.6 39
2015-03-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-626.8 1057 1749 1.20% 11.70% 87.10%-3.93 -3.6 9
2015-04-04 FC Tiraspol D 0-064.8 1473 1579 32.10% 14.69% 53.21%-0.42 +2.8 23
2015-04-04 @ Zimbru D 0-064.8 1579 1473 53.21% 14.69% 32.10%+0.42 -2.8 32
2015-04-04 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-235.2 1169 1753 2.97% 12.83% 84.20%-3.03 -3.3 10
2015-04-04 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-035.2 1753 1169 84.20% 12.83% 2.97%+3.03 +3.3 42
2015-04-05 Dacia Chisinau L 0-426.4 1054 1602 3.59% 13.04% 83.37%-2.84 -7.7 9
2015-04-05 @ FC Zaria W 4-026.4 1602 1054 83.37% 13.04% 3.59%+2.84 +7.7 42
2015-04-05 Milsami Orhei L 1-239.9 1146 1702 3.46% 13.00% 83.54%-2.87 -1.9 6
2015-04-05 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-139.9 1702 1146 83.54% 13.00% 3.46%+2.87 +1.9 40
2015-04-10 FC Zaria L 0-152.4 1327 1046 75.03% 14.10% 10.87%+1.69 -38.4 24
2015-04-10 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 1-052.4 1046 1327 10.87% 14.10% 75.03%-1.69 +38.4 12
2015-04-10 Dinamo-Auto W 4-027.6 1576 1144 81.68% 13.38% 4.94%+2.51 +10.5 35
2015-04-10 @ FC Tiraspol L 0-427.6 1144 1576 4.94% 13.38% 81.68%-2.51 -10.5 6
2015-04-11 Academia Chisinau L 0-153.9 1475 1166 76.62% 13.98% 9.40%+1.85 -39.2 23
2015-04-11 @ Zimbru W 1-053.9 1166 1475 9.40% 13.98% 76.62%-1.85 +39.2 13
2015-04-11 Milsami Orhei L 2-374.5 1756 1704 53.73% 14.69% 31.58%+0.44 -24.6 42
2015-04-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 3-274.5 1704 1756 31.58% 14.69% 53.73%-0.44 +24.6 43
2015-04-17 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-071.4 1610 1731 30.20% 14.67% 55.13%-0.50 +3.4 43
2015-04-17 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-071.4 1731 1610 55.13% 14.67% 30.20%+0.50 -3.3 43
2015-04-17 Zimbru L 0-231.1 1084 1436 10.21% 14.05% 75.75%-1.76 -11.4 12
2015-04-17 @ FC Zaria W 2-031.1 1436 1084 75.75% 14.05% 10.21%+1.76 +11.4 26
2015-04-18 FC Tiraspol L 1-272.0 1728 1586 64.03% 14.54% 21.44%+0.93 -30.7 43
2015-04-18 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-172.0 1586 1728 21.44% 14.54% 64.03%-0.93 +30.7 38
2015-04-18 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 4-148.2 1134 1289 26.14% 14.62% 59.24%-0.69 +69.8 9
2015-04-18 @ Dinamo-Auto L 1-448.2 1289 1134 59.24% 14.62% 26.14%+0.69 -69.8 24
2015-04-24 Dacia Chisinau L 0-455.6 1617 1613 47.27% 14.72% 38.01%+0.18 -87.6 38
2015-04-24 @ FC Tiraspol W 4-055.6 1613 1617 38.01% 14.72% 47.27%-0.18 +87.6 46
2015-04-24 Milsami Orhei W 1-060.8 1219 1698 5.25% 13.44% 81.31%-2.45 +41.7 27
2015-04-24 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 0-160.8 1698 1219 81.31% 13.44% 5.25%+2.45 -41.7 43
2015-04-25 FC Zaria W 3-032.5 1205 1073 62.99% 14.56% 22.45%+0.88 +34.8 16
2015-04-25 @ Academia Chisinau L 0-332.5 1073 1205 22.45% 14.56% 62.99%-0.88 -34.8 12
2015-04-25 Dinamo-Auto D 0-054.4 1448 1203 72.64% 14.24% 13.12%+1.49 -8.5 27
2015-04-25 @ Zimbru D 0-054.4 1203 1448 13.12% 14.24% 72.64%-1.49 +8.5 10
2015-05-02 Academia Chisinau D 1-157.3 1212 1240 42.81% 14.73% 42.46%+0.01 -0.0 11
2015-05-02 @ Dinamo-Auto D 1-157.3 1240 1212 42.46% 14.73% 42.81%-0.01 +0.0 17
2015-05-03 FC Tiraspol W 4-046.7 1728 1529 69.17% 14.39% 16.44%+1.24 +34.1 46
2015-05-03 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-446.7 1529 1728 16.44% 14.39% 69.17%-1.24 -34.1 38
2015-05-03 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 3-035.3 1701 1261 81.94% 13.33% 4.72%+2.56 +7.7 49
2015-05-03 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-335.3 1261 1701 4.72% 13.33% 81.94%-2.56 -7.7 27
2015-05-03 Zimbru W 2-152.4 1656 1439 70.64% 14.33% 15.03%+1.34 +8.2 46
2015-05-03 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-252.4 1439 1656 15.03% 14.33% 70.64%-1.34 -8.2 27
2015-05-09 Dacia Chisinau L 0-149.0 1431 1709 14.81% 14.32% 70.87%-1.36 -8.6 27
2015-05-09 @ Zimbru W 1-049.0 1709 1431 70.87% 14.32% 14.81%+1.36 +8.6 52
2015-05-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-141.3 1253 1762 4.46% 13.28% 82.27%-2.62 -2.7 27
2015-05-09 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 1-041.3 1762 1253 82.27% 13.28% 4.46%+2.62 +2.7 49
2015-05-10 Dinamo-Auto L 1-535.3 1038 1212 24.15% 14.59% 61.26%-0.79 -40.5 12
2015-05-10 @ FC Zaria W 5-135.3 1212 1038 61.26% 14.59% 24.15%+0.79 +40.5 14
2015-05-10 Milsami Orhei L 1-340.9 1240 1664 6.99% 13.72% 79.29%-2.16 -6.8 17
2015-05-10 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-140.9 1664 1240 79.29% 13.72% 6.99%+2.16 +6.8 49
2015-05-15 Academia Chisinau W 8-133.7 1717 1233 83.21% 13.08% 3.71%+2.80 +11.0 55
2015-05-15 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-833.7 1233 1717 3.71% 13.08% 83.21%-2.80 -11.0 17
2015-05-15 FC Zaria W 5-024.8 1671 998 86.84% 11.83% 1.32%+3.83 +3.4 52
2015-05-15 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-524.8 998 1671 1.32% 11.83% 86.84%-3.83 -3.4 12
2015-05-15 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga W 3-138.9 1495 1251 72.68% 14.23% 13.09%+1.49 +12.5 41
2015-05-15 @ FC Tiraspol L 1-338.9 1251 1495 13.09% 14.23% 72.68%-1.49 -12.5 27
2015-05-15 Zimbru W 2-152.7 1765 1422 78.23% 13.83% 7.94%+2.03 +4.4 52
2015-05-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-252.7 1422 1765 7.94% 13.83% 78.23%-2.03 -4.5 27
2015-05-20 Dacia Chisinau W 2-167.5 1674 1728 39.09% 14.73% 46.18%-0.14 +22.6 55
2015-05-20 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-267.5 1728 1674 46.18% 14.73% 39.09%+0.14 -22.6 55
2015-05-20 FC Tiraspol L 0-425.7 994 1508 4.34% 13.25% 82.41%-2.64 -9.3 12
2015-05-20 @ FC Zaria W 4-025.7 1508 994 82.41% 13.25% 4.34%+2.64 +9.3 44
2015-05-20 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga L 1-443.9 1222 1238 44.46% 14.73% 40.81%+0.07 -53.6 17
2015-05-20 @ Academia Chisinau W 4-143.9 1238 1222 40.81% 14.73% 44.46%-0.07 +53.6 30
2015-05-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-141.5 1252 1769 4.27% 13.23% 82.50%-2.66 -2.5 14
2015-05-20 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-041.5 1769 1252 82.50% 13.23% 4.27%+2.66 +2.6 55

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-04-24 5.25% @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1219 1 Milsami Orhei 1698 0
2 2014-11-02 8.57% Academia Chisinau 1216 1 @ Zimbru 1543 0
3 2015-04-11 9.40% Academia Chisinau 1166 1 @ Zimbru 1475 0
4 2015-04-10 10.87% FC Zaria 1046 1 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1327 0
5 2014-11-22 12.26% @ FC Zaria 1114 2 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1430 0
6 2014-08-10 20.77% Dacia Chisinau 1567 2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1716 1
7 2014-11-09 21.15% @ Dacia Chisinau 1544 3 Sheriff Tiraspol 1747 2
8 2015-04-18 21.44% FC Tiraspol 1586 2 @ Milsami Orhei 1728 1
9 2014-09-19 22.09% @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1424 2 FC Tiraspol 1617 0
10 2015-04-18 26.14% @ Dinamo-Auto 1134 4 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1289 1
11 2015-03-04 29.02% @ Dinamo-Auto 1034 4 FC Zaria 1165 0
12 2015-03-05 30.05% FC Tiraspol 1548 2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1612 1
13 2015-04-11 31.58% Milsami Orhei 1704 3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1756 2
14 2014-10-19 32.60% Milsami Orhei 1513 2 @ FC Tiraspol 1558 1
15 2015-03-15 34.78% @ Dinamo-Auto 1127 1 Academia Chisinau 1213 0
16 2015-04-24 38.01% Dacia Chisinau 1613 4 @ FC Tiraspol 1617 0
17 2015-05-20 39.09% @ Milsami Orhei 1674 2 Dacia Chisinau 1728 1
18 2014-09-20 40.68% @ Milsami Orhei 1499 1 Zimbru 1542 0
19 2015-05-20 40.81% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1238 4 @ Academia Chisinau 1222 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-03-04 102.95 @ Dinamo-Auto 4 1034 29.02% FC Zaria 0 1165 56.32% 14.66%
2 2015-04-24 87.64 Dacia Chisinau 4 1613 38.01% @ FC Tiraspol 0 1617 47.27% 14.72%
3 2014-11-22 70.86 @ FC Zaria 2 1114 12.26% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1430 73.55% 14.19%
4 2015-04-18 69.76 @ Dinamo-Auto 4 1134 26.14% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1289 59.24% 14.62%
5 2014-09-19 60.84 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 2 1424 22.09% FC Tiraspol 0 1617 63.36% 14.55%
6 2014-11-02 60.78 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1579 43.08% Dacia Chisinau 0 1605 42.18% 14.73%
7 2015-05-20 53.62 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 4 1238 40.81% @ Academia Chisinau 1 1222 44.46% 14.73%
8 2015-03-01 47.89 @ FC Tiraspol 4 1500 61.64% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1381 23.77% 14.58%
9 2014-08-08 42.56 Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 3 1360 57.30% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1221 28.05% 14.65%
10 2015-04-24 41.66 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1219 5.25% Milsami Orhei 0 1698 81.31% 13.44%
11 2015-05-10 40.48 Dinamo-Auto 5 1212 61.26% @ FC Zaria 1 1038 24.15% 14.59%
12 2014-10-25 39.83 Milsami Orhei 2 1539 45.45% @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1490 39.82% 14.73%
13 2014-11-02 39.69 Academia Chisinau 1 1216 8.57% @ Zimbru 0 1543 77.52% 13.90%
14 2015-04-11 39.22 Academia Chisinau 1 1166 9.40% @ Zimbru 0 1475 76.62% 13.98%
15 2014-10-24 38.90 @ Academia Chisinau 5 1177 49.09% FC Zaria 2 1160 36.20% 14.72%
16 2015-04-10 38.37 FC Zaria 1 1046 10.87% @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1327 75.03% 14.10%
17 2014-09-28 37.27 @ FC Zaria 2 1149 48.41% Dinamo-Auto 0 1137 36.87% 14.72%
18 2014-11-23 35.47 @ Zimbru 3 1504 44.13% FC Tiraspol 1 1522 41.14% 14.73%
19 2015-04-25 34.79 @ Academia Chisinau 3 1205 62.99% FC Zaria 0 1073 22.45% 14.56%
20 2015-05-03 34.06 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1728 69.17% FC Tiraspol 0 1529 16.44% 14.39%
21 2014-08-29 33.72 @ Milsami Orhei 6 1454 75.00% Dinamo-Auto 0 1173 10.90% 14.10%
22 2014-08-02 31.95 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1535 54.39% Milsami Orhei 0 1477 30.93% 14.68%
23 2014-10-19 31.87 @ Academia Chisinau 2 1145 54.48% Dinamo-Auto 0 1087 30.84% 14.68%
24 2014-08-10 31.08 Dacia Chisinau 2 1567 20.77% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1716 64.71% 14.52%
25 2015-04-18 30.74 FC Tiraspol 2 1586 21.44% @ Milsami Orhei 1 1728 64.03% 14.54%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-11-09 76.2 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1544 21.15% Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1747 64.33% 14.53%
2 2015-04-11 74.5 Milsami Orhei 3 1704 31.58% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1756 53.73% 14.69%
3 2015-04-18 72.0 FC Tiraspol 2 1586 21.44% @ Milsami Orhei 1 1728 64.03% 14.54%
4 2014-08-10 71.8 Dacia Chisinau 2 1567 20.77% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1716 64.71% 14.52%
5 2014-11-29 71.6 @ Milsami Orhei 0 1640 35.77% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1718 49.52% 14.72%
6 2015-04-17 71.4 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1610 30.20% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1731 55.13% 14.67%
7 2014-08-02 70.0 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1351 9.16% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1724 76.88% 13.96%
8 2014-09-28 68.4 @ FC Tiraspol 0 1557 39.03% Dacia Chisinau 0 1611 46.24% 14.73%
9 2014-08-31 68.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1611 56.38% Zimbru 0 1538 28.96% 14.66%
10 2014-08-24 67.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1684 72.27% Milsami Orhei 0 1445 13.47% 14.26%
11 2015-05-20 67.5 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1674 39.09% Dacia Chisinau 1 1728 46.18% 14.73%
12 2015-03-05 66.5 FC Tiraspol 2 1548 30.05% @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1612 55.27% 14.67%
13 2014-10-04 66.3 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1610 62.30% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1485 23.13% 14.57%
14 2015-04-04 64.8 @ Zimbru 0 1473 32.10% FC Tiraspol 0 1579 53.21% 14.69%
15 2014-10-19 63.0 Milsami Orhei 2 1513 32.60% @ FC Tiraspol 1 1558 52.70% 14.70%
16 2014-07-26 61.4 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1483 63.43% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1346 22.02% 14.55%
17 2014-08-24 61.2 @ Zimbru 0 1544 63.03% Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1411 22.42% 14.56%
18 2015-04-24 60.8 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1219 5.25% Milsami Orhei 0 1698 81.31% 13.44%
19 2014-10-25 60.6 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1703 60.96% @ FC Tiraspol 2 1532 24.44% 14.60%
20 2015-03-20 60.6 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 1 1323 26.41% Zimbru 1 1477 58.96% 14.63%
21 2014-08-16 60.1 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1590 50.62% Zimbru 1 1561 34.67% 14.71%
22 2014-11-29 59.3 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 0 1359 23.49% Zimbru 0 1539 61.94% 14.58%
23 2014-07-25 58.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1713 64.33% FC Tiraspol 1 1568 21.14% 14.53%
24 2014-09-28 58.7 @ Academia Chisinau 1 1140 8.74% Milsami Orhei 1 1522 77.34% 13.92%
25 2014-09-19 58.2 @ Saxan Ceadir-Lunga 2 1424 22.09% FC Tiraspol 0 1617 63.36% 14.55%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-15 24.8 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1671 86.84% FC Zaria 0 998 1.32% 11.83%
2 2014-12-07 25.7 Milsami Orhei 5 1641 84.52% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1043 2.75% 12.74%
3 2015-05-20 25.7 FC Tiraspol 4 1508 82.41% @ FC Zaria 0 994 4.34% 13.25%
4 2015-04-05 26.4 Dacia Chisinau 4 1602 83.37% @ FC Zaria 0 1054 3.59% 13.04%
5 2015-03-21 26.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1749 87.10% FC Zaria 0 1057 1.20% 11.70%
6 2015-04-10 27.6 @ FC Tiraspol 4 1576 81.68% Dinamo-Auto 0 1144 4.94% 13.38%
7 2014-08-29 27.8 @ Milsami Orhei 6 1454 75.00% Dinamo-Auto 0 1173 10.90% 14.10%
8 2014-10-19 27.8 @ Zimbru 6 1517 77.69% FC Zaria 0 1186 8.43% 13.89%
9 2015-03-20 28.0 @ FC Tiraspol 5 1561 79.62% Academia Chisinau 0 1187 6.70% 13.68%
10 2014-10-03 28.8 Zimbru 3 1504 78.43% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1100 7.76% 13.81%
11 2014-09-20 29.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1678 84.14% FC Zaria 0 1155 3.02% 12.84%
12 2014-12-13 29.3 @ Milsami Orhei 4 1649 82.91% FC Zaria 0 1175 3.95% 13.14%
13 2014-11-23 29.6 Dacia Chisinau 2 1573 82.74% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1048 4.08% 13.18%
14 2014-12-13 30.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 7 1716 86.93% Dinamo-Auto 2 1036 1.28% 11.79%
15 2014-11-28 30.1 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1578 80.32% FC Zaria 0 1185 6.09% 13.59%
16 2014-08-24 30.3 FC Tiraspol 3 1607 80.16% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1161 6.23% 13.61%
17 2014-11-08 30.4 @ FC Tiraspol 2 1515 80.39% FC Zaria 0 1121 6.03% 13.58%
18 2014-10-04 30.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1699 84.71% Academia Chisinau 0 1149 2.61% 12.68%
19 2015-03-08 31.0 @ Zimbru 2 1462 77.43% Dinamo-Auto 0 1137 8.66% 13.91%
20 2015-04-17 31.1 Zimbru 2 1436 75.75% @ FC Zaria 0 1084 10.21% 14.05%
21 2014-08-02 31.4 @ FC Tiraspol 8 1557 76.47% Dinamo-Auto 1 1250 9.54% 13.99%
22 2014-11-01 32.0 FC Tiraspol 1 1512 80.55% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1055 5.89% 13.56%
23 2014-08-17 32.1 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1598 81.26% Dinamo-Auto 0 1179 5.29% 13.45%
24 2014-08-03 32.3 Zimbru 2 1551 77.28% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1171 8.79% 13.92%
25 2015-03-14 32.4 Zimbru 1 1472 78.68% @ FC Zaria 0 1062 7.53% 13.79%