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2015-16 Divizia Nationala Season

135 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Dacia Chisinau

65 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FC Zaria

11.59 points above expected

42 points · 30.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Milsami Orhei

13.04 points below expected

36 points · 49.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dacia Chisinau 27 20 5 2 65 44 12 +32 56.67 +8.33
2 Sheriff Tiraspol 27 20 5 2 65 50 11 +39 60.72 +4.28
3 Zimbru 27 15 4 8 49 42 26 +16 49.83 -0.83
4 FC Zaria 27 12 6 9 42 36 29 +7 30.41 +11.59
5 Dinamo-Auto 27 12 5 10 41 33 34 -1 32.47 +8.53
6 Milsami Orhei 27 10 6 11 36 33 23 +10 49.04 -13.04
7 Speranta Nisporeni 27 8 7 12 31 24 36 -12 31.22 -0.22
8 Petrocub Hincesti 27 6 3 18 21 21 53 -32 24.03 -3.03
9 Academia Chisinau 27 5 6 16 21 18 42 -24 24.59 -3.59
10 Saxan 27 1 5 21 8 10 45 -35 20.01 -12.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Zaria 42 30.41 +11.59
2 Dinamo-Auto 41 32.47 +8.53
3 Dacia Chisinau 65 56.67 +8.33
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 65 60.72 +4.28
5 Speranta Nisporeni 31 31.22 -0.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Milsami Orhei 36 49.04 -13.04
2 Saxan 8 20.01 -12.01
3 Academia Chisinau 21 24.59 -3.59
4 Petrocub Hincesti 21 24.03 -3.03
5 Zimbru 49 49.83 -0.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Zaria 3 Aug 22 – Sep 12 1 in 70
2 Speranta Nisporeni 3 Jul 26 – Aug 9 1 in 54
3 Dacia Chisinau 11 Nov 8 – Apr 29 1 in 54
4 Dinamo-Auto 2 Sep 26 – Oct 2 1 in 23
5 Zimbru 4 Jul 25 – Aug 15 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Speranta Nisporeni 7 Mar 18 – May 7 1 in 141
2 Zimbru 2 Nov 7 – Nov 22 1 in 15
3 Academia Chisinau 5 Oct 2 – Nov 8 1 in 13
4 Saxan 6 Mar 18 – Apr 30 1 in 11
5 Petrocub Hincesti 6 Mar 13 – Apr 24 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dacia Chisinau 23 Aug 9 – Apr 29 1 in 83
2 Academia Chisinau 4 Nov 21 – Mar 13 1 in 34
3 FC Zaria 6 Oct 17 – Nov 28 1 in 20
4 Speranta Nisporeni 4 Sep 19 – Oct 17 1 in 9
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 14 Aug 15 – Mar 5 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 9 Oct 3 – Mar 13 1 in 1,212
2 Saxan 24 Jul 25 – Apr 30 1 in 299
3 Speranta Nisporeni 11 Nov 28 – May 15 1 in 115
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 Sep 13 – Sep 26 1 in 36
5 Academia Chisinau 10 Sep 18 – Mar 5 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1764 65 +24 13 11.7 +1.3
Dacia Chisinau 1670 65 -9 10 9.6 +0.4
Zimbru 1445 49 -70 7 9.8 -2.8
FC Zaria 1436 42 +39 7 5.1 +1.9
Dinamo-Auto 1423 41 +34 9 6.3 +2.7
Milsami Orhei 1529 36 -10 7 9.5 -2.5
Speranta Nisporeni 1221 31 -34 4 5.7 -1.7
Petrocub Hincesti 1124 21 +7 6 5.4 +0.6
Academia Chisinau 1195 21 -6 5 4.7 +0.3
Saxan 1062 8 +26 3 2.5 +0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AC DC DIN FZ MO PH SAX ST SN ZIM
Academia Chisinau —
0-0-3
1.13
0-0-3
2.94
1-0-2
3.64
1-1-1
1.43
1-1-1
4.60
2-1-0
4.59
0-0-3
0.98
0-1-2
3.46
0-2-1
1.56
Dacia Chisinau
3-0-0
7.34
 —
3-0-0
6.59
2-1-0
6.93
2-0-1
5.14
3-0-0
7.49
3-0-0
7.52
1-2-0
3.16
2-1-0
6.97
1-1-1
5.35
Dinamo-Auto
3-0-0
5.47
0-0-3
1.84
 —
1-1-1
4.77
1-1-1
2.66
2-0-1
5.40
2-1-0
5.79
0-2-1
1.21
2-0-1
4.06
1-0-2
2.06
FC Zaria
2-0-1
4.76
0-1-2
1.51
1-1-1
3.63
 —
0-2-1
2.94
3-0-0
5.34
3-0-0
5.19
0-1-2
1.24
2-1-0
4.12
1-0-2
2.10
Milsami Orhei
1-1-1
7.01
1-0-2
3.26
1-1-1
5.74
1-2-0
5.46
 —
1-1-1
7.20
2-1-0
7.17
0-0-3
2.72
2-0-1
5.44
1-0-2
3.84
Petrocub Hincesti
1-1-1
3.80
0-0-3
1.00
1-0-2
3.00
0-0-3
3.07
1-1-1
1.26
 —
3-0-0
4.92
0-0-3
0.98
0-1-2
4.48
0-0-3
1.31
Saxan
0-1-2
3.80
0-0-3
0.97
0-1-2
2.63
0-0-3
3.24
0-1-2
1.28
0-0-3
3.47
 —
0-0-3
0.94
1-2-0
2.05
0-0-3
1.37
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-0-0
7.52
0-2-1
5.23
1-2-0
7.25
2-1-0
7.21
3-0-0
5.68
3-0-0
7.50
3-0-0
7.57
 —
2-0-1
7.12
3-0-0
5.99
Speranta Nisporeni
2-1-0
4.94
0-1-2
1.48
1-0-2
4.34
0-1-2
4.28
1-0-2
2.96
2-1-0
3.91
0-2-1
6.36
1-0-2
1.34
 —
1-1-1
1.88
Zimbru
1-2-0
6.87
1-1-1
3.04
2-0-1
6.36
2-0-1
6.31
2-0-1
4.56
3-0-0
7.15
3-0-0
7.10
0-0-3
2.41
1-1-1
6.55
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.95 +14.4
Allowed 0.84 -12.5
Differential 0.94 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.59%10.37%9.63%4.44%2.22%0.37%39.63%
110.37%5.93%5.93%2.59%2.22%0.74%27.78%
29.63%5.93%0.74%0.74%1.11%—18.15%
34.44%2.59%0.74%———7.78%
42.22%2.22%1.11%———5.56%
5+0.37%0.74%————1.11%
Total39.63%27.78%18.15%7.78%5.56%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.15 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.94
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%7.41%22.22%7.41%——55.56%
111.11%3.70%—11.11%—3.70%29.63%
2———3.70%3.70%—7.41%
37.41%—————7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.04%11.11%22.22%22.22%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.56 -0.89
SD 0.92 1.48 1.72
CV 1.38 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%—3.70%3.70%——14.81%
122.22%11.11%————33.33%
225.93%7.41%————33.33%
37.41%3.70%————11.11%
43.70%3.70%————7.41%
5+———————
Total66.67%25.93%3.70%3.70%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 0.44 +1.19
SD 1.11 0.75 1.49
CV 0.68 1.69 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%3.70%3.70%—7.41%—29.63%
114.81%3.70%11.11%3.70%3.70%—37.04%
27.41%7.41%—3.70%——18.52%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total37.04%29.63%14.81%7.41%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.26 -0.04
SD 1.12 1.35 1.85
CV 0.92 1.07 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%14.81%7.41%11.11%——44.44%
1—11.11%————11.11%
218.52%7.41%————25.93%
3—7.41%————7.41%
4——7.41%———7.41%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total29.63%44.44%14.81%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.07 +0.26
SD 1.49 0.96 1.87
CV 1.12 0.89 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%25.93%7.41%3.70%——51.85%
13.70%3.70%3.70%———11.11%
27.41%7.41%3.70%———18.52%
33.70%—————3.70%
43.70%7.41%————11.11%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total37.04%44.44%14.81%3.70%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.85 +0.37
SD 1.58 0.82 1.96
CV 1.29 0.96 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%14.81%11.11%7.41%—48.15%
111.11%3.70%11.11%—3.70%3.70%33.33%
23.70%3.70%3.70%—3.70%—14.81%
3———————
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+———————
Total18.52%18.52%33.33%11.11%14.81%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.96 -1.19
SD 0.97 1.43 1.80
CV 1.25 0.73 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%22.22%18.52%7.41%3.70%—66.67%
1—3.70%14.81%7.41%3.70%—29.63%
23.70%—————3.70%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.52%25.93%33.33%14.81%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.37 1.67 -1.30
SD 0.56 1.18 1.23
CV 1.53 0.71 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%————14.81%
114.81%11.11%————25.93%
218.52%11.11%————29.63%
314.81%3.70%————18.52%
43.70%7.41%————11.11%
5+———————
Total59.26%40.74%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 0.41 +1.44
SD 1.23 0.50 1.34
CV 0.66 1.23 —
Max 4 1 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%7.41%11.11%—3.70%3.70%44.44%
111.11%7.41%11.11%3.70%3.70%—37.04%
27.41%—————7.41%
3——7.41%———7.41%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total40.74%14.81%29.63%3.70%7.41%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.33 -0.44
SD 1.09 1.44 1.91
CV 1.22 1.08 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%3.70%7.41%———25.93%
114.81%—7.41%—7.41%—29.63%
23.70%14.81%——3.70%—22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
47.41%—————7.41%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total51.85%22.22%14.81%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.96 +0.59
SD 1.40 1.32 2.06
CV 0.90 1.37 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1783 65 60.72 +4.28 84.0% 49 51 56 61 64 70 74
Dacia Chisinau 1652 65 56.67 +8.33 93.0% 43 46 52 57 61 67 71
Milsami Orhei 1529 36 49.04 -13.04 2.0% 33 38 45 49 53 57 65
Zimbru 1445 49 49.83 -0.83 44.0% 39 39 44 51 55 59 62
FC Zaria 1436 42 30.41 +11.59 97.0% 19 21 26 30 34 41 46
Dinamo-Auto 1423 41 32.47 +8.53 91.0% 15 20 28 33 37 43 49
Speranta Nisporeni 1221 31 31.22 -0.22 52.0% 14 19 27 31 35 43 45
Academia Chisinau 1195 21 24.59 -3.59 30.0% 9 14 21 24 28 34 37
Petrocub Hincesti 1124 21 24.03 -3.03 36.0% 9 14 21 24 28 33 38
Saxan 1062 8 20.01 -12.01 0.0% 11 12 16 20 23 29 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.63%
Slight Edge
45.19%19.26%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 33.56 Elo pts.
268 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.23 goals
Neutral
-2+0.13+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Dacia Chisinau, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.84 * Some Luck: 4.84 to 7.25 * Lucky: 7.25 to 9.67 * Wild Swing: 9.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.15 * Off: 1.15 to 1.53 * Way Off: 1.53 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.95 points
Lucky
06.0515
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.962
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
FC Zaria
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Saxan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 233.13
2.64
Moderate Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
85%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.83
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Weak Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1
Dacia Chisinau 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dacia Chisinau27.00%46.00%15.00%11.00%1.00%—————
Sheriff Tiraspol69.00%22.00%9.00%———————
Zimbru2.00%23.00%35.00%34.00%6.00%—————
FC Zaria———3.00%22.00%25.00%19.00%23.00%7.00%1.00%
Dinamo-Auto——1.00%4.00%35.00%22.00%21.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%
Milsami Orhei2.00%9.00%40.00%44.00%2.00%3.00%————
Speranta Nisporeni———4.00%28.00%25.00%20.00%11.00%6.00%6.00%
Petrocub Hincesti————3.00%9.00%22.00%17.00%33.00%16.00%
Academia Chisinau————2.00%13.00%13.00%28.00%30.00%14.00%
Saxan————1.00%3.00%5.00%14.00%20.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Academia Chisinau 100%
Dacia Chisinau 100%
Dinamo-Auto 100%
FC Zaria 100%
Milsami Orhei 100%
Petrocub Hincesti 100%
Saxan 100%
Sheriff Tiraspol 100%
Speranta Nisporeni 100%
Zimbru 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-07-25 Academia Chisinau W 1-040.3 1318 1271 50.33% 20.18% 29.49%+0.30 +17.7 3
2015-07-25 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-140.3 1271 1318 29.49% 20.18% 50.33%-0.30 -17.7 0
2015-07-25 Saxan W 2-037.7 1607 1335 71.12% 18.75% 10.12%+1.14 +12.7 3
2015-07-25 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-237.7 1335 1607 10.12% 18.75% 71.12%-1.14 -12.7 0
2015-07-25 Zimbru L 0-135.7 1157 1409 15.21% 19.45% 65.34%-0.82 -9.9 0
2015-07-25 @ FC Zaria W 1-035.7 1409 1157 65.34% 19.45% 15.21%+0.82 +9.9 3
2015-07-26 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-442.7 1372 1264 57.63% 19.95% 22.42%+0.53 -111.8 0
2015-07-26 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 4-042.7 1264 1372 22.42% 19.95% 57.63%-0.53 +111.8 3
2015-08-01 Petrocub Hincesti W 4-031.3 1620 1260 75.70% 17.83% 6.47%+1.47 +15.5 6
2015-08-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-431.3 1260 1620 6.47% 17.83% 75.70%-1.47 -15.5 0
2015-08-01 Saxan W 4-138.9 1564 1322 69.14% 19.04% 11.83%+1.03 +18.0 3
2015-08-01 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-438.9 1322 1564 11.83% 19.04% 69.14%-1.03 -18.0 0
2015-08-01 Speranta Nisporeni L 2-351.0 1254 1375 27.80% 20.14% 52.07%-0.33 -15.1 0
2015-08-01 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-251.0 1375 1254 52.07% 20.14% 27.80%+0.33 +15.1 6
2015-08-02 FC Zaria D 0-052.0 1335 1147 65.11% 19.47% 15.42%+0.83 -7.3 4
2015-08-02 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-052.0 1147 1335 15.42% 19.47% 65.11%-0.83 +7.3 1
2015-08-02 Dacia Chisinau W 3-051.2 1419 1572 24.31% 20.03% 55.67%-0.44 +82.8 6
2015-08-02 @ Zimbru L 0-351.2 1572 1419 55.67% 20.03% 24.31%+0.44 -82.8 0
2015-08-08 Academia Chisinau L 0-140.6 1155 1239 32.53% 20.23% 47.24%-0.19 -19.2 1
2015-08-08 @ FC Zaria W 1-040.6 1239 1155 47.24% 20.23% 32.53%+0.19 +19.2 3
2015-08-09 Dinamo-Auto W 4-033.4 1489 1328 62.78% 19.65% 17.56%+0.73 +40.3 3
2015-08-09 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-433.4 1328 1489 17.56% 19.65% 62.78%-0.73 -40.3 4
2015-08-09 Milsami Orhei W 1-055.8 1245 1582 9.96% 18.72% 71.31%-1.13 +38.6 3
2015-08-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-155.8 1582 1245 71.31% 18.72% 9.96%+1.13 -38.6 3
2015-08-09 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-060.8 1390 1636 15.73% 19.50% 64.78%-0.79 +35.0 9
2015-08-09 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 0-160.8 1636 1390 64.78% 19.50% 15.73%+0.79 -35.0 6
2015-08-09 Zimbru L 1-246.3 1304 1502 19.74% 19.80% 60.46%-0.61 -11.8 0
2015-08-09 @ Saxan W 2-146.3 1502 1304 60.46% 19.80% 19.74%+0.61 +11.8 9
2015-08-15 Dacia Chisinau L 0-230.3 1136 1529 7.46% 18.14% 74.40%-1.34 -9.4 1
2015-08-15 @ FC Zaria W 2-030.3 1529 1136 74.40% 18.14% 7.46%+1.34 +9.4 6
2015-08-15 Petrocub Hincesti W 3-031.9 1514 1284 68.36% 19.13% 12.51%+0.99 +22.6 12
2015-08-15 @ Zimbru L 0-331.9 1284 1514 12.51% 19.13% 68.36%-0.99 -22.5 3
2015-08-15 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-332.5 1258 1601 9.67% 18.67% 71.66%-1.16 -17.6 3
2015-08-15 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-032.5 1601 1258 71.66% 18.67% 9.67%+1.16 +17.6 9
2015-08-15 Speranta Nisporeni W 5-039.7 1543 1425 58.61% 19.90% 21.49%+0.57 +59.5 6
2015-08-15 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-539.7 1425 1543 21.49% 19.90% 58.61%-0.57 -59.5 9
2015-08-16 Saxan D 0-052.2 1288 1293 43.51% 20.27% 36.22%+0.11 -1.0 5
2015-08-16 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-052.2 1293 1288 36.22% 20.27% 43.51%-0.11 +1.0 1
2015-08-22 FC Zaria L 1-352.2 1294 1126 63.37% 19.61% 17.02%+0.75 -56.0 1
2015-08-22 @ Saxan W 3-152.2 1126 1294 17.02% 19.61% 63.37%-0.75 +56.0 4
2015-08-22 Dinamo-Auto W 2-149.2 1261 1287 40.59% 20.28% 39.12%+0.03 +21.0 6
2015-08-22 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-249.2 1287 1261 39.12% 20.28% 40.59%-0.03 -21.0 5
2015-08-23 Academia Chisinau W 1-035.9 1539 1240 72.64% 18.50% 8.87%+1.24 +5.9 9
2015-08-23 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-135.9 1240 1539 8.87% 18.50% 72.64%-1.24 -5.9 3
2015-08-23 Milsami Orhei W 3-051.8 1618 1603 46.30% 20.24% 33.46%+0.18 +53.8 12
2015-08-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-351.8 1603 1618 33.46% 20.24% 46.30%-0.18 -53.8 6
2015-08-23 Zimbru D 0-058.0 1366 1536 22.39% 19.94% 57.67%-0.51 +5.0 10
2015-08-23 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-058.0 1536 1366 57.67% 19.94% 22.39%+0.51 -5.0 13
2015-08-28 Petrocub Hincesti W 5-142.7 1182 1282 30.46% 20.20% 49.34%-0.25 +80.7 7
2015-08-28 @ FC Zaria L 1-542.7 1282 1182 49.34% 20.20% 30.46%+0.25 -80.7 6
2015-08-28 Speranta Nisporeni W 3-149.4 1266 1371 29.79% 20.18% 50.02%-0.27 +44.7 8
2015-08-28 @ Dinamo-Auto L 1-349.4 1371 1266 50.02% 20.18% 29.79%+0.27 -44.8 10
2015-08-29 Saxan W 2-142.0 1544 1238 73.10% 18.41% 8.49%+1.27 +5.3 12
2015-08-29 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-242.0 1238 1544 8.49% 18.41% 73.10%-1.27 -5.3 1
2015-08-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-260.8 1531 1672 25.61% 20.07% 54.32%-0.40 -14.8 13
2015-08-29 @ Zimbru W 2-160.8 1672 1531 54.32% 20.07% 25.61%+0.40 +14.8 15
2015-08-30 Milsami Orhei L 0-233.5 1234 1549 11.14% 18.93% 69.93%-1.05 -13.9 3
2015-08-30 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-033.5 1549 1234 69.93% 18.93% 11.14%+1.05 +13.9 9
2015-09-12 Academia Chisinau L 0-339.0 1232 1220 45.83% 20.25% 33.92%+0.17 -69.5 1
2015-09-12 @ Saxan W 3-039.0 1220 1232 33.92% 20.25% 45.83%-0.17 +69.5 6
2015-09-12 FC Zaria L 0-243.8 1326 1263 52.45% 20.13% 27.42%+0.36 -53.9 10
2015-09-12 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 2-043.8 1263 1326 27.42% 20.13% 52.45%-0.36 +53.9 10
2015-09-12 Dacia Chisinau L 1-241.8 1201 1550 9.40% 18.61% 71.99%-1.18 -5.9 6
2015-09-12 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-141.8 1550 1201 71.99% 18.61% 9.40%+1.18 +5.9 15
2015-09-12 Zimbru L 0-255.2 1563 1517 50.34% 20.18% 29.48%+0.30 -52.0 9
2015-09-12 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-055.2 1517 1563 29.48% 20.18% 50.34%-0.30 +52.0 16
2015-09-13 Dinamo-Auto D 1-167.4 1687 1310 76.43% 17.63% 5.94%+1.53 -9.6 16
2015-09-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.4 1310 1687 5.94% 17.63% 76.43%-1.53 +9.6 9
2015-09-16 Milsami Orhei W 1-051.9 1556 1511 50.14% 20.18% 29.68%+0.29 +17.8 18
2015-09-16 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-151.9 1511 1556 29.68% 20.18% 50.14%-0.29 -17.8 9
2015-09-18 Zimbru L 1-536.4 1290 1569 13.34% 19.24% 67.42%-0.92 -26.1 6
2015-09-18 @ Academia Chisinau W 5-136.4 1569 1290 67.42% 19.24% 13.34%+0.92 +26.1 19
2015-09-19 Milsami Orhei L 1-247.2 1320 1493 22.11% 19.93% 57.96%-0.52 -13.0 9
2015-09-19 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-147.2 1493 1320 57.96% 19.93% 22.11%+0.52 +13.0 12
2015-09-19 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-142.6 1163 1195 39.57% 20.28% 40.14%+0.00 -22.5 1
2015-09-19 @ Saxan W 1-042.6 1195 1163 40.14% 20.28% 39.57%+0.00 +22.5 9
2015-09-19 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.0 1317 1677 8.84% 18.49% 72.67%-1.22 +8.6 11
2015-09-19 @ FC Zaria D 1-167.0 1677 1317 72.67% 18.49% 8.84%+1.22 -8.6 17
2015-09-19 Speranta Nisporeni D 1-162.0 1574 1272 72.79% 18.47% 8.74%+1.25 -8.7 19
2015-09-19 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-162.0 1272 1574 8.74% 18.47% 72.79%-1.25 +8.7 11
2015-09-26 Dacia Chisinau D 0-068.5 1669 1565 57.09% 19.97% 22.94%+0.51 -4.8 18
2015-09-26 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-068.5 1565 1669 22.94% 19.97% 57.09%-0.51 +4.8 20
2015-09-26 Dinamo-Auto L 1-264.3 1595 1307 72.03% 18.60% 9.36%+1.20 -36.8 19
2015-09-26 @ Zimbru W 2-164.3 1307 1595 9.36% 18.60% 72.03%-1.20 +36.8 12
2015-09-27 Academia Chisinau D 0-051.8 1218 1264 37.71% 20.28% 42.01%-0.05 +0.6 10
2015-09-27 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 0-051.8 1264 1218 42.01% 20.28% 37.71%+0.05 -0.6 7
2015-09-27 FC Zaria W 3-033.9 1506 1325 64.53% 19.52% 15.95%+0.80 +28.3 15
2015-09-27 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-333.9 1325 1506 15.95% 19.52% 64.53%-0.80 -28.3 11
2015-09-27 Saxan D 0-051.8 1281 1140 60.89% 19.78% 19.33%+0.65 -6.0 12
2015-09-27 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-051.8 1140 1281 19.33% 19.78% 60.89%-0.65 +6.0 2
2015-10-02 Dinamo-Auto L 1-344.0 1263 1344 32.96% 20.24% 46.80%-0.18 -31.7 7
2015-10-02 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-144.0 1344 1263 46.80% 20.24% 32.96%+0.18 +31.7 15
2015-10-02 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-240.7 1146 1664 3.93% 16.64% 79.44%-1.81 -2.4 2
2015-10-02 @ Saxan W 2-140.7 1664 1146 79.44% 16.64% 3.93%+1.81 +2.4 21
2015-10-03 FC Zaria W 3-032.8 1558 1297 70.41% 18.86% 10.73%+1.10 +19.5 22
2015-10-03 @ Zimbru L 0-332.8 1297 1558 10.73% 18.86% 70.41%-1.10 -19.5 11
2015-10-03 Dacia Chisinau L 0-156.1 1535 1570 39.23% 20.28% 40.48%-0.01 -22.3 15
2015-10-03 @ Milsami Orhei W 1-056.1 1570 1535 40.48% 20.28% 39.23%+0.01 +22.3 23
2015-10-03 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-157.2 1275 1219 51.60% 20.15% 28.25%+0.34 -2.9 13
2015-10-03 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 1-157.2 1219 1275 28.25% 20.15% 51.60%-0.34 +2.9 11
2015-10-17 Academia Chisinau W 2-036.7 1272 1232 49.61% 20.19% 30.20%+0.28 +34.0 16
2015-10-17 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 0-236.7 1232 1272 30.20% 20.19% 49.61%-0.28 -34.0 7
2015-10-17 Dinamo-Auto W 3-149.2 1278 1375 30.73% 20.20% 49.07%-0.24 +44.0 14
2015-10-17 @ FC Zaria L 1-349.2 1375 1278 49.07% 20.20% 30.73%+0.24 -44.0 15
2015-10-17 Zimbru D 0-067.0 1592 1577 46.19% 20.25% 33.57%+0.18 -1.7 24
2015-10-17 @ Dacia Chisinau D 0-067.0 1577 1592 33.57% 20.25% 46.19%-0.18 +1.7 23
2015-10-18 Milsami Orhei D 0-053.4 1144 1512 8.49% 18.41% 73.10%-1.25 +9.8 3
2015-10-18 @ Saxan D 0-053.4 1512 1144 73.10% 18.41% 8.49%+1.25 -9.8 16
2015-10-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-331.9 1221 1666 5.73% 17.55% 76.72%-1.54 -10.5 11
2015-10-18 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 3-031.9 1666 1221 76.72% 17.55% 5.73%+1.54 +10.5 24
2015-10-23 FC Zaria L 0-236.0 1197 1322 27.51% 20.13% 52.37%-0.34 -31.5 7
2015-10-23 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-036.0 1322 1197 52.37% 20.13% 27.51%+0.34 +31.5 17
2015-10-23 Petrocub Hincesti D 2-265.2 1502 1211 72.25% 18.57% 9.18%+1.21 -6.4 17
2015-10-23 @ Milsami Orhei D 2-265.2 1211 1502 9.18% 18.57% 72.25%-1.21 +6.3 12
2015-10-23 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-147.2 1677 1306 76.17% 17.70% 6.12%+1.51 +3.9 27
2015-10-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-247.2 1306 1677 6.12% 17.70% 76.17%-1.51 -3.9 16
2015-10-24 Dacia Chisinau L 0-238.5 1331 1590 14.72% 19.40% 65.89%-0.84 -18.1 15
2015-10-24 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-038.5 1590 1331 65.89% 19.40% 14.72%+0.84 +18.1 27
2015-10-24 Saxan W 4-027.1 1579 1154 78.37% 17.03% 4.60%+1.71 +10.9 26
2015-10-24 @ Zimbru L 0-427.1 1154 1579 4.60% 17.03% 78.37%-1.71 -10.9 3
2015-10-31 Academia Chisinau W 3-137.5 1680 1166 81.26% 15.85% 2.89%+2.05 +3.1 30
2015-10-31 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-337.5 1166 1680 2.89% 15.85% 81.26%-2.05 -3.1 7
2015-10-31 Zimbru L 1-242.5 1217 1590 8.30% 18.36% 73.33%-1.27 -5.2 12
2015-10-31 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-142.5 1590 1217 73.33% 18.36% 8.30%+1.27 +5.2 29
2015-11-01 FC Zaria D 1-165.7 1608 1353 70.05% 18.91% 11.03%+1.08 -7.9 28
2015-11-01 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-165.7 1353 1608 11.03% 18.91% 70.05%-1.08 +7.9 18
2015-11-01 Dinamo-Auto L 0-137.6 1143 1313 22.36% 19.94% 57.69%-0.51 -14.0 3
2015-11-01 @ Saxan W 1-037.6 1313 1143 57.69% 19.94% 22.36%+0.51 +14.0 18
2015-11-01 Milsami Orhei W 1-052.1 1302 1496 20.10% 19.82% 60.08%-0.60 +32.5 19
2015-11-01 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 0-152.1 1496 1302 60.08% 19.82% 20.10%+0.60 -32.5 17
2015-11-07 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-034.3 1327 1212 58.33% 19.91% 21.75%+0.56 +25.7 21
2015-11-07 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-234.3 1212 1327 21.75% 19.91% 58.33%-0.56 -25.7 12
2015-11-07 Saxan W 2-140.6 1361 1129 68.50% 19.12% 12.38%+0.99 +7.7 21
2015-11-07 @ FC Zaria L 1-240.6 1129 1361 12.38% 19.12% 68.50%-0.99 -7.7 3
2015-11-07 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-158.7 1595 1335 70.39% 18.87% 10.75%+1.10 -38.1 29
2015-11-07 @ Zimbru W 1-058.7 1335 1595 10.75% 18.87% 70.39%-1.10 +38.1 22
2015-11-08 Dacia Chisinau L 0-231.1 1163 1600 5.95% 17.64% 76.41%-1.51 -7.5 7
2015-11-08 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-031.1 1600 1163 76.41% 17.64% 5.95%+1.51 +7.5 31
2015-11-08 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-150.8 1464 1684 17.76% 19.67% 62.57%-0.70 -11.4 17
2015-11-08 @ Milsami Orhei W 1-050.8 1684 1464 62.57% 19.67% 17.76%+0.70 +11.4 33
2015-11-21 Academia Chisinau D 0-052.9 1452 1155 72.54% 18.51% 8.95%+1.23 -9.6 18
2015-11-21 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-052.9 1155 1452 8.95% 18.51% 72.54%-1.23 +9.6 8
2015-11-21 FC Zaria L 0-234.2 1186 1369 21.21% 19.88% 58.91%-0.56 -25.1 12
2015-11-21 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-034.2 1369 1186 58.91% 19.88% 21.21%+0.56 +25.1 24
2015-11-21 Dinamo-Auto W 3-253.7 1373 1353 46.90% 20.24% 32.87%+0.20 +17.3 25
2015-11-21 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 2-353.7 1353 1373 32.87% 20.24% 46.90%-0.20 -17.3 21
2015-11-22 Dacia Chisinau L 1-335.9 1121 1608 4.60% 17.03% 78.37%-1.69 -5.0 3
2015-11-22 @ Saxan W 3-135.9 1608 1121 78.37% 17.03% 4.60%+1.69 +5.0 34
2015-11-22 Zimbru W 4-152.8 1695 1557 60.61% 19.79% 19.60%+0.64 +28.7 36
2015-11-22 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-452.8 1557 1695 19.60% 19.79% 60.61%-0.64 -28.7 29
2015-11-28 Saxan D 1-156.8 1165 1116 50.69% 20.17% 29.14%+0.31 -2.6 9
2015-11-28 @ Academia Chisinau D 1-156.8 1116 1165 29.14% 20.17% 50.69%-0.31 +2.6 4
2015-11-28 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-064.2 1336 1724 7.68% 18.20% 74.11%-1.32 +10.1 22
2015-11-28 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-064.2 1724 1336 74.11% 18.20% 7.68%+1.32 -10.1 37
2015-11-28 Speranta Nisporeni D 0-054.7 1394 1390 44.70% 20.26% 35.04%+0.14 -1.3 25
2015-11-28 @ FC Zaria D 0-054.7 1390 1394 35.04% 20.26% 44.70%-0.14 +1.3 26
2015-11-29 Milsami Orhei W 2-153.1 1528 1443 55.11% 20.05% 24.85%+0.45 +14.4 32
2015-11-29 @ Zimbru L 1-253.1 1443 1528 24.85% 20.05% 55.11%-0.45 -14.4 18
2015-11-29 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-030.5 1613 1161 79.29% 16.69% 4.02%+1.81 +5.0 37
2015-11-29 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-230.5 1161 1613 4.02% 16.69% 79.29%-1.81 -5.0 12
2016-03-05 Academia Chisinau D 0-054.2 1543 1162 76.60% 17.59% 5.82%+1.55 -10.8 33
2016-03-05 @ Zimbru D 0-054.2 1162 1543 5.82% 17.59% 76.60%-1.55 +10.8 10
2016-03-05 FC Zaria W 1-046.2 1714 1393 73.84% 18.26% 7.90%+1.32 +5.3 40
2016-03-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-146.2 1393 1714 7.90% 18.26% 73.84%-1.32 -5.3 25
2016-03-05 Dacia Chisinau L 0-145.9 1391 1618 17.22% 19.63% 63.15%-0.72 -11.1 26
2016-03-05 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 1-045.9 1618 1391 63.15% 19.63% 17.22%+0.72 +11.1 40
2016-03-06 Dinamo-Auto D 0-054.6 1428 1346 54.69% 20.06% 25.25%+0.43 -4.1 19
2016-03-06 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-054.6 1346 1428 25.25% 20.06% 54.69%-0.43 +4.1 23
2016-03-06 Saxan W 1-039.9 1156 1119 49.22% 20.20% 30.58%+0.27 +18.2 15
2016-03-06 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-139.9 1119 1156 30.58% 20.20% 49.22%-0.27 -18.2 4
2016-03-12 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-063.6 1629 1719 31.76% 20.22% 48.02%-0.21 +26.4 43
2016-03-12 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-163.6 1719 1629 48.02% 20.22% 31.76%+0.21 -26.4 40
2016-03-12 Speranta Nisporeni D 0-052.1 1100 1380 13.26% 19.23% 67.51%-0.92 +8.0 5
2016-03-12 @ Saxan D 0-052.1 1380 1100 67.51% 19.23% 13.26%+0.92 -8.0 27
2016-03-13 Milsami Orhei D 0-055.3 1387 1424 38.99% 20.28% 40.73%-0.01 +0.2 26
2016-03-13 @ FC Zaria D 0-055.3 1424 1387 40.73% 20.28% 38.99%+0.01 -0.2 20
2016-03-13 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-041.5 1173 1174 44.04% 20.27% 35.69%+0.12 +20.7 13
2016-03-13 @ Academia Chisinau L 0-141.5 1174 1173 35.69% 20.27% 44.04%-0.12 -20.7 15
2016-03-13 Zimbru L 0-436.4 1350 1532 21.23% 19.89% 58.89%-0.55 -47.8 23
2016-03-13 @ Dinamo-Auto W 4-036.4 1532 1350 58.89% 19.89% 21.23%+0.55 +47.8 36
2016-03-18 Academia Chisinau W 2-032.9 1692 1194 80.78% 16.07% 3.15%+1.99 +3.9 43
2016-03-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-232.9 1194 1692 3.15% 16.07% 80.78%-1.99 -3.9 13
2016-03-18 Dinamo-Auto L 0-245.4 1387 1302 55.04% 20.05% 24.91%+0.44 -56.4 26
2016-03-18 @ FC Zaria W 2-045.4 1302 1387 24.91% 20.05% 55.04%-0.44 +56.4 26
2016-03-18 Milsami Orhei L 0-438.9 1372 1424 36.93% 20.27% 42.80%-0.07 -76.1 27
2016-03-18 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 4-038.9 1424 1372 42.80% 20.27% 36.93%+0.07 +76.1 23
2016-03-18 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-033.4 1580 1154 78.39% 17.02% 4.59%+1.72 +3.0 39
2016-03-18 @ Zimbru L 0-133.4 1154 1580 4.59% 17.02% 78.39%-1.72 -3.0 15
2016-03-18 Saxan W 2-029.4 1655 1108 82.16% 15.40% 2.44%+2.17 +3.0 46
2016-03-18 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-229.4 1108 1655 2.44% 15.40% 82.16%-2.17 -3.0 5
2016-04-02 Dacia Chisinau L 0-330.4 1190 1658 5.07% 17.27% 77.66%-1.62 -9.2 13
2016-04-02 @ Academia Chisinau W 3-030.4 1658 1190 77.66% 17.27% 5.07%+1.62 +9.2 49
2016-04-02 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-135.2 1151 1696 3.39% 16.26% 80.34%-1.91 -2.2 15
2016-04-02 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 1-035.2 1696 1151 80.34% 16.26% 3.39%+1.91 +2.2 46
2016-04-02 Zimbru W 4-156.9 1500 1583 32.65% 20.23% 47.11%-0.18 +60.0 26
2016-04-02 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-456.9 1583 1500 47.11% 20.23% 32.65%+0.18 -60.0 39
2016-04-03 Saxan W 2-031.0 1331 1105 68.03% 19.17% 12.80%+0.97 +15.9 29
2016-04-03 @ FC Zaria L 0-231.0 1105 1331 12.80% 19.17% 68.03%-0.97 -15.9 5
2016-04-03 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-146.4 1359 1296 52.33% 20.13% 27.54%+0.36 +15.8 29
2016-04-03 @ Dinamo-Auto L 1-246.4 1296 1359 27.54% 20.13% 52.33%-0.36 -15.8 27
2016-04-09 Dinamo-Auto W 2-148.5 1523 1374 61.64% 19.73% 18.63%+0.68 +11.2 42
2016-04-09 @ Zimbru L 1-248.5 1374 1523 18.63% 19.73% 61.64%-0.68 -11.2 29
2016-04-09 Milsami Orhei W 2-050.4 1698 1560 60.69% 19.79% 19.53%+0.64 +23.4 49
2016-04-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-250.4 1560 1698 19.53% 19.79% 60.69%-0.64 -23.4 26
2016-04-09 Petrocub Hincesti W 3-028.5 1668 1148 81.39% 15.79% 2.82%+2.06 +5.0 52
2016-04-09 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-328.5 1148 1668 2.82% 15.79% 81.39%-2.06 -5.0 15
2016-04-10 Academia Chisinau L 0-334.5 1090 1181 31.57% 20.22% 48.21%-0.22 -51.3 5
2016-04-10 @ Saxan W 3-034.5 1181 1090 48.21% 20.22% 31.57%+0.22 +51.3 16
2016-04-10 FC Zaria L 1-248.4 1280 1347 34.86% 20.26% 44.89%-0.12 -19.1 27
2016-04-10 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 2-148.4 1347 1280 44.89% 20.26% 34.86%+0.12 +19.1 32
2016-04-15 FC Zaria L 0-236.0 1232 1366 26.36% 20.10% 53.55%-0.38 -30.3 16
2016-04-15 @ Academia Chisinau W 2-036.0 1366 1232 53.55% 20.10% 26.36%+0.38 +30.3 35
2016-04-15 Milsami Orhei L 0-131.7 1038 1537 4.34% 16.89% 78.77%-1.74 -2.9 5
2016-04-15 @ Saxan W 1-031.7 1537 1038 78.77% 16.89% 4.34%+1.74 +2.9 29
2016-04-15 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-035.4 1673 1261 77.83% 17.21% 4.96%+1.66 +6.2 55
2016-04-15 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-235.4 1261 1673 4.96% 17.21% 77.83%-1.66 -6.2 27
2016-04-15 Zimbru W 2-049.1 1722 1534 65.11% 19.47% 15.42%+0.83 +18.9 52
2016-04-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-249.1 1534 1722 15.42% 19.47% 65.11%-0.83 -18.9 42
2016-04-16 Dinamo-Auto L 1-435.4 1143 1363 17.79% 19.67% 62.54%-0.70 -26.3 15
2016-04-16 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 4-135.4 1363 1143 62.54% 19.67% 17.79%+0.70 +26.3 32
2016-04-23 Dacia Chisinau L 0-147.0 1396 1679 13.10% 19.21% 67.69%-0.93 -8.6 35
2016-04-23 @ FC Zaria W 1-047.0 1679 1396 67.69% 19.21% 13.10%+0.93 +8.6 58
2016-04-23 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-440.0 1255 1741 4.64% 17.05% 78.31%-1.69 -7.1 27
2016-04-23 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 4-140.0 1741 1255 78.31% 17.05% 4.64%+1.69 +7.1 55
2016-04-24 Academia Chisinau W 3-138.4 1389 1202 65.10% 19.47% 15.43%+0.83 +16.4 35
2016-04-24 @ Dinamo-Auto L 1-338.4 1202 1389 15.43% 19.47% 65.10%-0.83 -16.4 16
2016-04-24 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-138.6 1539 1117 78.25% 17.07% 4.68%+1.70 +2.9 32
2016-04-24 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-238.6 1117 1539 4.68% 17.07% 78.25%-1.70 -2.9 15
2016-04-24 Saxan W 1-031.1 1515 1035 80.21% 16.32% 3.47%+1.92 +2.3 45
2016-04-24 @ Zimbru L 0-131.1 1035 1515 3.47% 16.32% 80.21%-1.92 -2.3 5
2016-04-29 FC Zaria W 3-040.8 1748 1388 75.71% 17.83% 6.46%+1.47 +11.8 58
2016-04-29 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-340.8 1388 1748 6.46% 17.83% 75.71%-1.47 -11.8 35
2016-04-29 Dinamo-Auto W 4-145.5 1687 1406 71.68% 18.66% 9.66%+1.18 +14.8 61
2016-04-29 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-445.5 1406 1687 9.66% 18.66% 71.68%-1.18 -14.8 35
2016-04-29 Speranta Nisporeni W 1-036.2 1517 1248 70.94% 18.78% 10.28%+1.13 +6.8 48
2016-04-29 @ Zimbru L 0-136.2 1248 1517 10.28% 18.78% 70.94%-1.13 -6.8 27
2016-04-30 Milsami Orhei W 1-054.1 1185 1542 9.00% 18.53% 72.47%-1.21 +39.2 19
2016-04-30 @ Academia Chisinau L 0-154.1 1542 1185 72.47% 18.53% 9.00%+1.21 -39.2 32
2016-04-30 Saxan W 2-034.8 1114 1033 54.55% 20.06% 25.39%+0.43 +29.4 18
2016-04-30 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-234.8 1033 1114 25.39% 20.06% 54.55%-0.43 -29.4 5
2016-05-06 Dacia Chisinau W 2-061.7 1503 1702 19.60% 19.79% 60.60%-0.62 +61.8 35
2016-05-06 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-261.7 1702 1503 60.60% 19.79% 19.60%+0.62 -61.8 61
2016-05-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-147.7 1391 1760 8.48% 18.41% 73.12%-1.25 -5.7 35
2016-05-06 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-047.7 1760 1391 73.12% 18.41% 8.48%+1.25 +5.7 61
2016-05-06 Zimbru W 4-259.4 1376 1524 24.75% 20.04% 55.21%-0.43 +43.8 38
2016-05-06 @ FC Zaria L 2-459.4 1524 1376 55.21% 20.04% 24.75%+0.43 -43.8 48
2016-05-07 Academia Chisinau W 4-250.7 1144 1225 32.89% 20.24% 46.87%-0.18 +37.8 21
2016-05-07 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 2-450.7 1225 1144 46.87% 20.24% 32.89%+0.18 -37.8 19
2016-05-07 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-046.3 1004 1241 16.34% 19.55% 64.11%-0.76 +65.4 8
2016-05-07 @ Saxan L 0-246.3 1241 1004 64.11% 19.55% 16.34%+0.76 -65.4 27
2016-05-15 Academia Chisinau D 0-051.6 1176 1187 42.66% 20.27% 37.07%+0.08 -0.7 28
2016-05-15 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-051.6 1187 1176 37.07% 20.27% 42.66%-0.08 +0.7 20
2016-05-15 Dacia Chisinau L 0-248.4 1480 1640 23.48% 19.99% 56.53%-0.47 -27.5 48
2016-05-15 @ Zimbru W 2-048.4 1640 1480 56.53% 19.99% 23.48%+0.47 +27.5 64
2016-05-15 Milsami Orhei W 1-056.2 1385 1565 21.47% 19.90% 58.63%-0.55 +31.8 38
2016-05-15 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-156.2 1565 1385 58.63% 19.90% 21.47%+0.55 -31.8 35
2016-05-15 Petrocub Hincesti W 4-240.7 1420 1181 68.93% 19.06% 12.01%+1.02 +11.6 41
2016-05-15 @ FC Zaria L 2-440.7 1181 1420 12.01% 19.06% 68.93%-1.02 -11.6 21
2016-05-15 Saxan W 2-029.9 1765 1069 85.64% 13.25% 1.11%+2.73 +1.3 64
2016-05-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-229.9 1069 1765 1.11% 13.25% 85.64%-2.73 -1.3 8
2016-05-20 FC Zaria D 1-165.5 1533 1431 56.89% 19.98% 23.13%+0.51 -4.3 36
2016-05-20 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-165.5 1431 1533 23.13% 19.98% 56.89%-0.51 +4.2 42
2016-05-20 Dinamo-Auto L 0-133.3 1068 1417 9.37% 18.60% 72.03%-1.18 -6.2 8
2016-05-20 @ Saxan W 1-033.3 1417 1068 72.03% 18.60% 9.37%+1.18 +6.2 41
2016-05-20 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-176.0 1668 1767 30.62% 20.20% 49.18%-0.24 +2.2 65
2016-05-20 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-176.0 1767 1668 49.18% 20.20% 30.62%+0.24 -2.3 65
2016-05-20 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-240.4 1170 1175 43.47% 20.27% 36.26%+0.11 -45.8 21
2016-05-20 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-040.4 1175 1170 36.26% 20.27% 43.47%-0.11 +45.8 31
2016-05-20 Zimbru D 0-052.9 1188 1453 14.25% 19.35% 66.40%-0.87 +7.7 21
2016-05-20 @ Academia Chisinau D 0-052.9 1453 1188 66.40% 19.35% 14.25%+0.87 -7.7 49

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2016-05-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-159.2 1670 1764 31.20% 20.21% 48.59%-0.23 -18.5 0-1
2016-05-29 @ Dacia Chisinau W 1-059.2 1764 1670 48.59% 20.21% 31.20%+0.23 +18.5 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-04-30 9.00% @ Academia Chisinau 1185 1 Milsami Orhei 1542 0
2 2015-09-26 9.36% Dinamo-Auto 1307 2 @ Zimbru 1595 1
3 2015-08-09 9.96% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1245 1 Milsami Orhei 1582 0
4 2015-11-07 10.75% Speranta Nisporeni 1335 1 @ Zimbru 1595 0
5 2015-08-09 15.73% @ Speranta Nisporeni 1390 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1636 0
6 2016-05-07 16.34% @ Saxan 1004 2 Speranta Nisporeni 1241 0
7 2015-08-22 17.02% FC Zaria 1126 3 @ Saxan 1294 1
8 2016-05-06 19.60% @ Milsami Orhei 1503 2 Dacia Chisinau 1702 0
9 2015-11-01 20.10% @ Speranta Nisporeni 1302 1 Milsami Orhei 1496 0
10 2016-05-15 21.47% @ Dinamo-Auto 1385 1 Milsami Orhei 1565 0
11 2015-07-26 22.42% Speranta Nisporeni 1264 4 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1372 0
12 2015-08-02 24.31% @ Zimbru 1419 3 Dacia Chisinau 1572 0
13 2016-05-06 24.75% @ FC Zaria 1376 4 Zimbru 1524 2
14 2016-03-18 24.91% Dinamo-Auto 1302 2 @ FC Zaria 1387 0
15 2015-09-12 27.42% FC Zaria 1263 2 @ Speranta Nisporeni 1326 0
16 2015-09-12 29.48% Zimbru 1517 2 @ Milsami Orhei 1563 0
17 2015-08-28 29.79% @ Dinamo-Auto 1266 3 Speranta Nisporeni 1371 1
18 2015-08-28 30.46% @ FC Zaria 1182 5 Petrocub Hincesti 1282 1
19 2015-10-17 30.73% @ FC Zaria 1278 3 Dinamo-Auto 1375 1
20 2016-03-12 31.76% @ Dacia Chisinau 1629 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1719 0
21 2016-04-02 32.65% @ Milsami Orhei 1500 4 Zimbru 1583 1
22 2016-05-07 32.89% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1144 4 Academia Chisinau 1225 2
23 2015-09-12 33.92% Academia Chisinau 1220 3 @ Saxan 1232 0
24 2016-05-20 36.26% Speranta Nisporeni 1175 2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1170 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-07-26 111.77 Speranta Nisporeni 4 1264 22.42% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1372 57.63% 19.95%
2 2015-08-02 82.78 @ Zimbru 3 1419 24.31% Dacia Chisinau 0 1572 55.67% 20.03%
3 2015-08-28 80.70 @ FC Zaria 5 1182 30.46% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1282 49.34% 20.20%
4 2016-03-18 76.12 Milsami Orhei 4 1424 42.80% @ Speranta Nisporeni 0 1372 36.93% 20.27%
5 2015-09-12 69.52 Academia Chisinau 3 1220 33.92% @ Saxan 0 1232 45.83% 20.25%
6 2016-05-07 65.41 @ Saxan 2 1004 16.34% Speranta Nisporeni 0 1241 64.11% 19.55%
7 2016-05-06 61.85 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1503 19.60% Dacia Chisinau 0 1702 60.60% 19.79%
8 2016-04-02 60.03 @ Milsami Orhei 4 1500 32.65% Zimbru 1 1583 47.11% 20.23%
9 2015-08-15 59.49 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1543 58.61% Speranta Nisporeni 0 1425 21.49% 19.90%
10 2016-03-18 56.39 Dinamo-Auto 2 1302 24.91% @ FC Zaria 0 1387 55.04% 20.05%
11 2015-08-22 55.99 FC Zaria 3 1126 17.02% @ Saxan 1 1294 63.37% 19.61%
12 2015-09-12 53.93 FC Zaria 2 1263 27.42% @ Speranta Nisporeni 0 1326 52.45% 20.13%
13 2015-08-23 53.77 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1618 46.30% Milsami Orhei 0 1603 33.46% 20.24%
14 2015-09-12 51.96 Zimbru 2 1517 29.48% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1563 50.34% 20.18%
15 2016-04-10 51.26 Academia Chisinau 3 1181 48.21% @ Saxan 0 1090 31.57% 20.22%
16 2016-03-13 47.75 Zimbru 4 1532 58.89% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1350 21.23% 19.89%
17 2016-05-20 45.78 Speranta Nisporeni 2 1175 36.26% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1170 43.47% 20.27%
18 2015-08-28 44.75 @ Dinamo-Auto 3 1266 29.79% Speranta Nisporeni 1 1371 50.02% 20.18%
19 2015-10-17 43.98 @ FC Zaria 3 1278 30.73% Dinamo-Auto 1 1375 49.07% 20.20%
20 2016-05-06 43.81 @ FC Zaria 4 1376 24.75% Zimbru 2 1524 55.21% 20.04%
21 2015-08-09 40.34 @ Dacia Chisinau 4 1489 62.78% Dinamo-Auto 0 1328 17.56% 19.65%
22 2016-04-30 39.24 @ Academia Chisinau 1 1185 9.00% Milsami Orhei 0 1542 72.47% 18.53%
23 2015-08-09 38.62 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1245 9.96% Milsami Orhei 0 1582 71.31% 18.72%
24 2015-11-07 38.12 Speranta Nisporeni 1 1335 10.75% @ Zimbru 0 1595 70.39% 18.87%
25 2016-05-07 37.79 @ Petrocub Hincesti 4 1144 32.89% Academia Chisinau 2 1225 46.87% 20.24%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-05-20 76.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1668 30.62% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1767 49.18% 20.20%
2 2015-09-26 68.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1669 57.09% Dacia Chisinau 0 1565 22.94% 19.97%
3 2015-09-13 67.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1687 76.43% Dinamo-Auto 1 1310 5.94% 17.63%
4 2015-09-19 67.0 @ FC Zaria 1 1317 8.84% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1677 72.67% 18.49%
5 2015-10-17 67.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1592 46.19% Zimbru 0 1577 33.57% 20.25%
6 2015-11-01 65.7 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1608 70.05% FC Zaria 1 1353 11.03% 18.91%
7 2016-05-20 65.5 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1533 56.89% FC Zaria 1 1431 23.13% 19.98%
8 2015-10-23 65.2 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1502 72.25% Petrocub Hincesti 2 1211 9.18% 18.57%
9 2015-09-26 64.3 Dinamo-Auto 2 1307 9.36% @ Zimbru 1 1595 72.03% 18.60%
10 2015-11-28 64.2 @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1336 7.68% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1724 74.11% 18.20%
11 2016-03-12 63.6 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1629 31.76% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1719 48.02% 20.22%
12 2015-09-19 62.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1574 72.79% Speranta Nisporeni 1 1272 8.74% 18.47%
13 2016-05-06 61.7 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1503 19.60% Dacia Chisinau 0 1702 60.60% 19.79%
14 2015-08-09 60.8 @ Speranta Nisporeni 1 1390 15.73% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1636 64.78% 19.50%
15 2015-08-29 60.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1672 54.32% @ Zimbru 1 1531 25.61% 20.07%
16 2016-05-06 59.4 @ FC Zaria 4 1376 24.75% Zimbru 2 1524 55.21% 20.04%
17 2016-05-29 * 59.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1764 48.59% @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1670 31.20% 20.21%
18 2015-11-07 58.7 Speranta Nisporeni 1 1335 10.75% @ Zimbru 0 1595 70.39% 18.87%
19 2015-08-23 58.0 @ Speranta Nisporeni 0 1366 22.39% Zimbru 0 1536 57.67% 19.94%
20 2015-10-03 57.2 @ Speranta Nisporeni 1 1275 51.60% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1219 28.25% 20.15%
21 2016-04-02 56.9 @ Milsami Orhei 4 1500 32.65% Zimbru 1 1583 47.11% 20.23%
22 2015-11-28 56.8 @ Academia Chisinau 1 1165 50.69% Saxan 1 1116 29.14% 20.17%
23 2016-05-15 56.2 @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1385 21.47% Milsami Orhei 0 1565 58.63% 19.90%
24 2015-10-03 56.1 Dacia Chisinau 1 1570 40.48% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1535 39.23% 20.28%
25 2015-08-09 55.8 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1245 9.96% Milsami Orhei 0 1582 71.31% 18.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-10-24 27.1 @ Zimbru 4 1579 78.37% Saxan 0 1154 4.60% 17.03%
2 2016-04-09 28.5 @ Dacia Chisinau 3 1668 81.39% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1148 2.82% 15.79%
3 2016-03-18 29.4 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1655 82.16% Saxan 0 1108 2.44% 15.40%
4 2016-05-15 29.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1765 85.64% Saxan 0 1069 1.11% 13.25%
5 2015-08-15 30.3 Dacia Chisinau 2 1529 74.40% @ FC Zaria 0 1136 7.46% 18.14%
6 2016-04-02 30.4 Dacia Chisinau 3 1658 77.66% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1190 5.07% 17.27%
7 2015-11-29 30.5 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1613 79.29% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1161 4.02% 16.69%
8 2016-04-03 31.0 @ FC Zaria 2 1331 68.03% Saxan 0 1105 12.80% 19.17%
9 2015-11-08 31.1 Dacia Chisinau 2 1600 76.41% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1163 5.95% 17.64%
10 2016-04-24 31.1 @ Zimbru 1 1515 80.21% Saxan 0 1035 3.47% 16.32%
11 2015-08-01 31.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1620 75.70% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1260 6.47% 17.83%
12 2016-04-15 31.7 Milsami Orhei 1 1537 78.77% @ Saxan 0 1038 4.34% 16.89%
13 2015-08-15 31.9 @ Zimbru 3 1514 68.36% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1284 12.51% 19.13%
14 2015-10-18 31.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1666 76.72% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1221 5.73% 17.55%
15 2015-08-15 32.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1601 71.66% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1258 9.67% 18.67%
16 2015-10-03 32.8 @ Zimbru 3 1558 70.41% FC Zaria 0 1297 10.73% 18.86%
17 2016-03-18 32.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1692 80.78% Academia Chisinau 0 1194 3.15% 16.07%
18 2016-05-20 33.3 Dinamo-Auto 1 1417 72.03% @ Saxan 0 1068 9.37% 18.60%
19 2015-08-09 33.4 @ Dacia Chisinau 4 1489 62.78% Dinamo-Auto 0 1328 17.56% 19.65%
20 2016-03-18 33.4 @ Zimbru 1 1580 78.39% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1154 4.59% 17.02%
21 2015-08-30 33.5 Milsami Orhei 2 1549 69.93% @ Academia Chisinau 0 1234 11.14% 18.93%
22 2015-09-27 33.9 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1506 64.53% FC Zaria 0 1325 15.95% 19.52%
23 2015-11-21 34.2 FC Zaria 2 1369 58.91% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1186 21.21% 19.88%
24 2015-11-07 34.3 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1327 58.33% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1212 21.75% 19.91%
25 2016-04-10 34.5 Academia Chisinau 3 1181 48.21% @ Saxan 0 1090 31.57% 20.22%