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2017-18 Divizia Nationala Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Milsami Orhei

6.68 points above expected

40 points · 33.32 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dacia Chisinau

6.96 points below expected

26 points · 32.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 18 14 3 1 45 50 14 +36 39.89 +5.11
2 Milsami Orhei 18 13 1 4 40 26 12 +14 33.32 +6.68
3 Petrocub Hincesti 18 7 5 6 26 25 16 +9 21.50 +4.50
4 Dacia Chisinau 18 7 5 6 26 23 26 -3 32.96 -6.96
5 FC Zaria 18 7 3 8 24 28 20 +8 27.70 -3.70
6 Speranta Nisporeni 18 5 6 7 21 18 21 -3 18.96 +2.04
7 Sfintul Gheorghe 18 5 5 8 20 15 27 -12 15.46 +4.54
8 Zimbru 18 5 4 9 19 17 21 -4 22.55 -3.55
9 Dinamo-Auto 18 4 3 11 15 14 38 -24 17.16 -2.16
10 Spicul Chiscareni 18 3 5 10 14 14 35 -21 20.77 -6.77

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Milsami Orhei 40 33.32 +6.68
2 Sheriff Tiraspol 45 39.89 +5.11
3 Sfintul Gheorghe 20 15.46 +4.54
4 Petrocub Hincesti 26 21.50 +4.50
5 Speranta Nisporeni 21 18.96 +2.04

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dacia Chisinau 26 32.96 -6.96
2 Spicul Chiscareni 14 20.77 -6.77
3 FC Zaria 24 27.70 -3.70
4 Zimbru 19 22.55 -3.55
5 Dinamo-Auto 15 17.16 -2.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 11 Jul 29 – Oct 22 1 in 70
2 Milsami Orhei 6 Jul 16 – Aug 19 1 in 61
3 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 Sep 29 – Oct 15 1 in 15
4 Dacia Chisinau 4 Jul 30 – Aug 20 1 in 11
5 Speranta Nisporeni 1 Jul 9 – Jul 9 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dacia Chisinau 3 Nov 3 – Nov 26 1 in 99
2 Petrocub Hincesti 3 Sep 23 – Oct 15 1 in 32
3 Spicul Chiscareni 4 Jul 30 – Aug 20 1 in 30
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Nov 26 – Nov 26 1 in 18
5 Dinamo-Auto 5 Oct 15 – Nov 18 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sfintul Gheorghe 5 Sep 23 – Oct 28 1 in 83
2 Petrocub Hincesti 5 Aug 12 – Sep 15 1 in 30
3 Speranta Nisporeni 4 Oct 29 – Nov 26 1 in 19
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 17 Jul 9 – Nov 18 1 in 14
5 FC Zaria 6 Sep 30 – Nov 18 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dacia Chisinau 8 Sep 23 – Nov 26 1 in 384
2 Spicul Chiscareni 10 Sep 10 – Nov 26 1 in 26
3 FC Zaria 4 Aug 5 – Aug 25 1 in 14
4 Dinamo-Auto 6 Jul 15 – Aug 19 1 in 8
5 Speranta Nisporeni 5 Aug 12 – Sep 16 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1653 45 +8 10 11.7 -1.7
Milsami Orhei 1503 40 -2 9 9.3 -0.3
Petrocub Hincesti 1400 26 +58 11 6.4 +4.6
Dacia Chisinau 1399 26 -70 2 9.8 -7.8
FC Zaria 1435 24 +23 8 8.6 -0.6
Speranta Nisporeni 1311 21 +41 8 5.6 +2.4
Sfintul Gheorghe 1242 20 +8 6 3.8 +2.2
Zimbru 1325 19 -7 7 6.7 +0.3
Dinamo-Auto 1193 15 -45 3 3.6 -0.6
Spicul Chiscareni 1234 14 -15 3 4.2 -1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DC DIN FZ MO PH SG ST SN SC ZIM
Dacia Chisinau —
1-0-1
4.30
1-1-0
3.24
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
3.91
2-0-0
4.39
0-1-1
1.96
1-1-0
4.16
1-1-0
4.04
1-0-1
3.86
Dinamo-Auto
1-0-1
1.29
 —
1-0-1
1.46
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
3.02
0-0-2
0.79
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.15
FC Zaria
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
4.12
 —
0-0-2
2.29
0-2-0
3.49
1-0-1
4.14
0-0-2
1.53
2-0-0
3.49
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
3.36
Milsami Orhei
1-1-0
2.66
2-0-0
4.34
2-0-0
3.26
 —
1-0-1
3.96
2-0-0
4.45
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
4.15
2-0-0
3.68
Petrocub Hincesti
2-0-0
1.65
1-0-1
3.26
0-2-0
2.06
1-0-1
1.61
 —
1-0-1
3.47
0-0-2
1.06
0-2-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.90
Sfintul Gheorghe
0-0-2
1.21
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.16
1-0-1
2.09
 —
0-1-1
0.76
1-1-0
2.18
1-1-0
2.11
0-1-1
1.94
Sheriff Tiraspol
1-1-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.87
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
4.55
1-1-0
4.92
 —
1-0-1
4.81
2-0-0
4.73
1-1-0
4.46
Speranta Nisporeni
0-1-1
1.41
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.06
1-0-1
1.47
0-2-0
2.40
0-1-1
3.36
1-0-1
0.85
 —
1-1-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.26
Spicul Chiscareni
0-1-1
1.53
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.42
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
3.42
0-0-2
0.91
0-1-1
3.03
 —
1-1-0
2.33
Zimbru
1-0-1
1.70
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.87
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
3.61
0-1-1
1.14
1-0-1
3.28
0-1-1
3.21
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +8.2
Allowed 0.64 -9.5
Differential 0.85 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%12.78%5.56%4.44%2.22%1.67%31.11%
112.78%13.33%6.11%2.22%1.67%—36.11%
25.56%6.11%4.44%0.56%0.56%—17.22%
34.44%2.22%0.56%—0.56%0.56%8.33%
42.22%1.67%0.56%0.56%——5.00%
5+1.67%——0.56%——2.22%
Total31.11%36.11%17.22%8.33%5.00%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.99
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
122.22%16.67%5.56%———44.44%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.44 -0.17
SD 1.07 1.50 1.58
CV 0.84 1.04 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
116.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—50.00%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.11 -1.33
SD 0.81 1.68 2.00
CV 1.04 0.79 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.78%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.11 +0.44
SD 1.72 1.23 2.50
CV 1.11 1.11 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
133.33%5.56%—5.56%——44.44%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%38.89%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.67 +0.78
SD 1.10 0.84 1.48
CV 0.76 1.26 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
111.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.89 +0.50
SD 1.24 0.90 1.69
CV 0.90 1.01 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%—55.56%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.50 -0.67
SD 1.15 1.15 1.57
CV 1.38 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—11.11%————11.11%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%16.67%————22.22%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+11.11%——5.56%——16.67%
Total38.89%50.00%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.78 +2.00
SD 1.56 0.81 1.75
CV 0.56 1.04 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——5.56%——22.22%
116.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%——61.11%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 0.77 1.29 1.47
CV 0.77 1.11 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%50.00%
111.11%22.22%————33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.94 -1.17
SD 1.00 1.51 2.04
CV 1.29 0.78 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%27.78%—5.56%——38.89%
111.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.17 -0.22
SD 1.06 1.10 1.66
CV 1.12 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1653 45 39.89 +5.11 87.0% 27 31 36 40 44 47 50
Milsami Orhei 1503 40 33.32 +6.68 94.0% 20 25 30 34 37 42 44
FC Zaria 1435 24 27.70 -3.70 29.0% 12 17 24 28 32 36 40
Petrocub Hincesti 1400 26 21.50 +4.50 84.0% 6 14 18 21 25 31 35
Dacia Chisinau 1399 26 32.96 -6.96 8.0% 22 25 30 33 35 41 44
Zimbru 1325 19 22.55 -3.55 26.0% 10 12 19 22 27 31 35
Speranta Nisporeni 1311 21 18.96 +2.04 71.0% 5 9 15 18 22 29 39
Sfintul Gheorghe 1242 20 15.46 +4.54 86.0% 7 8 12 16 18 25 29
Spicul Chiscareni 1234 14 20.77 -6.77 12.0% 8 12 17 20 25 30 33
Dinamo-Auto 1193 15 17.16 -2.16 39.0% 6 9 14 17 20 25 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
46.67%22.22%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
181 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
054.49500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.310.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.2 * Some Luck: 4.2 to 6.29 * Lucky: 6.29 to 8.39 * Wild Swing: 8.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.05 * Close: 1.05 to 1.57 * Off: 1.57 to 2.1 * Way Off: 2.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.91 points
Some Luck
05.2413
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Off
01.313
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Milsami Orhei
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Dacia Chisinau
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 139.76
1.79
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
72%
Even
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
93%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Some Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.03
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Sheriff Tiraspol66.00%21.00%9.00%4.00%——————
Milsami Orhei18.00%31.00%27.00%12.00%11.00%1.00%————
Petrocub Hincesti—3.00%3.00%8.00%16.00%21.00%20.00%18.00%6.00%5.00%
Dacia Chisinau11.00%28.00%36.00%14.00%6.00%5.00%————
FC Zaria4.00%12.00%16.00%23.00%17.00%16.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%
Speranta Nisporeni—1.00%2.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%18.00%19.00%21.00%15.00%
Sfintul Gheorghe——1.00%2.00%4.00%4.00%8.00%15.00%35.00%31.00%
Zimbru1.00%4.00%4.00%16.00%17.00%17.00%20.00%7.00%8.00%6.00%
Dinamo-Auto———5.00%4.00%10.00%14.00%19.00%17.00%31.00%
Spicul Chiscareni——2.00%11.00%14.00%18.00%15.00%18.00%12.00%10.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dacia Chisinau 100% —
Milsami Orhei 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
FC Zaria 98.00% 2.00%
Petrocub Hincesti 95.00% 5.00%
Zimbru 94.00% 6.00%
Spicul Chiscareni 90.00% 10.00%
Speranta Nisporeni 85.00% 15.00%
Dinamo-Auto 69.00% 31.00%
Sfintul Gheorghe 69.00% 31.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-07-08 Spicul Chiscareni L 0-142.5 1278 1342 36.80% 23.56% 39.65%-0.06 -10.2 0
2017-07-08 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 1-042.5 1342 1278 39.65% 23.56% 36.80%+0.06 +10.1 3
2017-07-08 Zimbru W 1-043.6 1275 1344 36.15% 23.55% 40.30%-0.08 +10.9 3
2017-07-08 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-143.6 1344 1275 40.30% 23.55% 36.15%+0.08 -10.9 0
2017-07-09 FC Zaria W 5-039.3 1555 1426 60.80% 21.68% 17.53%+1.01 +23.8 3
2017-07-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-539.3 1426 1555 17.53% 21.68% 60.80%-1.01 -23.8 0
2017-07-09 Dacia Chisinau L 0-137.8 1256 1490 17.80% 21.74% 60.46%-0.99 -5.5 0
2017-07-09 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-037.8 1490 1256 60.46% 21.74% 17.80%+0.99 +5.5 3
2017-07-09 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-151.3 1449 1280 64.54% 20.84% 14.62%+1.23 -16.4 0
2017-07-09 @ Milsami Orhei W 1-051.3 1280 1449 14.62% 20.84% 64.54%-1.23 +16.4 3
2017-07-15 Dinamo-Auto W 1-041.0 1268 1286 43.32% 23.49% 33.20%+0.20 +9.4 3
2017-07-15 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-141.0 1286 1268 33.20% 23.49% 43.32%-0.20 -9.4 3
2017-07-15 Sfintul Gheorghe W 4-032.1 1333 1250 55.99% 22.47% 21.53%+0.76 +23.3 3
2017-07-15 @ Zimbru L 0-432.1 1250 1333 21.53% 22.47% 55.99%-0.76 -23.3 0
2017-07-15 Speranta Nisporeni D 1-155.5 1352 1297 52.82% 22.86% 24.32%+0.61 -1.7 4
2017-07-15 @ Spicul Chiscareni D 1-155.5 1297 1352 24.32% 22.86% 52.82%-0.61 +1.7 4
2017-07-16 Milsami Orhei L 0-147.4 1402 1432 41.67% 23.53% 34.81%+0.13 -11.2 0
2017-07-16 @ FC Zaria W 1-047.4 1432 1402 34.81% 23.53% 41.67%-0.13 +11.2 3
2017-07-16 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-166.7 1495 1579 34.21% 23.52% 42.28%-0.16 +0.4 4
2017-07-16 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-166.7 1579 1495 42.28% 23.52% 34.21%+0.16 -0.5 4
2017-07-22 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-239.6 1227 1277 38.85% 23.56% 37.59%+0.02 -19.9 0
2017-07-22 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-039.6 1277 1227 37.59% 23.56% 38.85%-0.02 +19.9 6
2017-07-22 Spicul Chiscareni L 0-337.4 1276 1351 35.44% 23.54% 41.02%-0.11 -27.0 3
2017-07-22 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-037.4 1351 1276 41.02% 23.54% 35.44%+0.11 +27.0 7
2017-07-22 Zimbru D 2-268.6 1578 1356 69.01% 19.55% 11.44%+1.52 -2.7 5
2017-07-22 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 2-268.6 1356 1578 11.44% 19.55% 69.01%-1.52 +2.7 4
2017-07-23 Dacia Chisinau W 2-155.3 1444 1496 38.54% 23.56% 37.89%+0.01 +9.8 6
2017-07-23 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-255.3 1496 1444 37.89% 23.56% 38.54%-0.01 -9.8 4
2017-07-24 FC Zaria L 2-448.7 1298 1391 32.93% 23.48% 43.59%-0.21 -13.6 4
2017-07-24 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 4-248.7 1391 1298 43.59% 23.48% 32.93%+0.21 +13.6 3
2017-07-29 Sfintul Gheorghe D 2-260.3 1249 1207 51.27% 23.01% 25.72%+0.54 -1.1 4
2017-07-29 @ Dinamo-Auto D 2-260.3 1207 1249 25.72% 23.01% 51.27%-0.54 +1.1 1
2017-07-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-245.3 1297 1575 14.54% 20.81% 64.65%-1.24 -4.2 6
2017-07-29 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-145.3 1575 1297 64.65% 20.81% 14.54%+1.24 +4.3 8
2017-07-30 FC Zaria L 0-243.4 1378 1405 42.11% 23.52% 34.37%+0.15 -21.2 7
2017-07-30 @ Spicul Chiscareni W 2-043.4 1405 1378 34.37% 23.52% 42.11%-0.15 +21.3 6
2017-07-30 Milsami Orhei L 0-144.1 1359 1453 32.72% 23.47% 43.81%-0.22 -9.3 4
2017-07-30 @ Zimbru W 1-044.1 1453 1359 43.81% 23.47% 32.72%+0.22 +9.3 9
2017-07-30 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-142.0 1486 1285 67.36% 20.06% 12.57%+1.41 +3.7 7
2017-07-30 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-242.0 1285 1486 12.57% 20.06% 67.36%-1.41 -3.7 4
2017-08-04 Spicul Chiscareni W 4-359.5 1208 1356 26.08% 23.05% 50.87%-0.52 +11.5 4
2017-08-04 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 3-459.5 1356 1208 50.87% 23.05% 26.08%+0.52 -11.5 7
2017-08-04 Zimbru W 1-043.6 1281 1350 36.19% 23.55% 40.25%-0.08 +10.9 7
2017-08-04 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 0-143.6 1350 1281 40.25% 23.55% 36.19%+0.08 -10.9 4
2017-08-05 Dacia Chisinau L 0-148.4 1426 1490 36.88% 23.56% 39.56%-0.05 -10.2 6
2017-08-05 @ FC Zaria W 1-048.4 1490 1426 39.56% 23.56% 36.88%+0.05 +10.2 10
2017-08-05 Dinamo-Auto W 3-137.6 1580 1248 76.60% 16.53% 6.87%+2.13 +3.3 11
2017-08-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-337.6 1248 1580 6.87% 16.53% 76.60%-2.13 -3.3 4
2017-08-05 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-036.7 1463 1293 64.69% 20.80% 14.51%+1.24 +4.5 12
2017-08-05 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-136.7 1293 1463 14.51% 20.80% 64.69%-1.24 -4.5 6
2017-08-12 Milsami Orhei L 1-437.9 1245 1467 18.81% 21.97% 59.22%-0.93 -13.3 4
2017-08-12 @ Dinamo-Auto W 4-137.9 1467 1245 59.22% 21.97% 18.81%+0.93 +13.3 15
2017-08-12 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-330.8 1219 1583 9.82% 18.68% 71.49%-1.71 -8.3 4
2017-08-12 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-030.8 1583 1219 71.49% 18.68% 9.82%+1.71 +8.3 14
2017-08-12 Speranta Nisporeni D 1-154.8 1288 1292 45.28% 23.41% 31.31%+0.28 -0.8 7
2017-08-12 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-154.8 1292 1288 31.31% 23.41% 45.28%-0.28 +0.8 8
2017-08-13 FC Zaria W 1-045.5 1339 1416 35.08% 23.53% 41.38%-0.12 +11.1 7
2017-08-13 @ Zimbru L 0-145.5 1416 1339 41.38% 23.53% 35.08%+0.12 -11.1 6
2017-08-13 Dacia Chisinau L 0-142.6 1345 1500 25.34% 22.97% 51.68%-0.56 -7.5 7
2017-08-13 @ Spicul Chiscareni W 1-042.6 1500 1345 51.68% 22.97% 25.34%+0.56 +7.5 13
2017-08-19 Dinamo-Auto D 1-154.7 1293 1232 53.47% 22.79% 23.74%+0.64 -1.7 9
2017-08-19 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 1-154.7 1232 1293 23.74% 22.79% 53.47%-0.64 +1.7 5
2017-08-19 Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-033.4 1480 1211 72.54% 18.28% 9.18%+1.79 +2.8 18
2017-08-19 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-133.4 1211 1480 9.18% 18.28% 72.54%-1.79 -2.8 4
2017-08-20 Petrocub Hincesti D 2-262.1 1405 1287 59.65% 21.89% 18.46%+0.95 -1.8 7
2017-08-20 @ FC Zaria D 2-262.1 1287 1405 18.46% 21.89% 59.65%-0.95 +1.8 8
2017-08-20 Spicul Chiscareni W 5-034.2 1591 1337 71.45% 18.70% 9.85%+1.70 +13.4 17
2017-08-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-534.2 1337 1591 9.85% 18.70% 71.45%-1.70 -13.3 7
2017-08-20 Zimbru W 2-145.2 1507 1350 63.53% 21.09% 15.38%+1.17 +4.5 16
2017-08-20 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-245.2 1350 1507 15.38% 21.09% 63.53%-1.17 -4.5 7
2017-08-25 FC Zaria W 1-047.4 1233 1403 23.81% 22.80% 53.39%-0.63 +13.8 8
2017-08-25 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-147.4 1403 1233 53.39% 22.80% 23.81%+0.63 -13.8 7
2017-08-25 Dacia Chisinau W 3-046.6 1289 1512 18.76% 21.96% 59.29%-0.93 +41.5 11
2017-08-25 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-346.6 1512 1289 59.29% 21.96% 18.76%+0.93 -41.5 16
2017-08-25 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-149.3 1208 1291 34.27% 23.52% 42.21%-0.16 +10.6 7
2017-08-25 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-249.3 1291 1208 42.21% 23.52% 34.27%+0.16 -10.6 9
2017-08-26 Zimbru W 1-042.0 1324 1346 42.86% 23.50% 33.64%+0.18 +9.5 10
2017-08-26 @ Spicul Chiscareni L 0-142.0 1346 1324 33.64% 23.50% 42.86%-0.18 -9.5 7
2017-08-27 Milsami Orhei W 3-151.4 1605 1483 60.06% 21.82% 18.12%+0.97 +9.1 20
2017-08-27 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-351.4 1483 1605 18.12% 21.82% 60.06%-0.97 -9.1 18
2017-09-09 Dinamo-Auto W 4-135.0 1470 1247 69.13% 19.51% 11.36%+1.53 +8.1 19
2017-09-09 @ Dacia Chisinau L 1-435.0 1247 1470 11.36% 19.51% 69.13%-1.53 -8.1 8
2017-09-09 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-155.5 1336 1331 46.54% 23.35% 30.11%+0.33 -0.9 8
2017-09-09 @ Zimbru D 1-155.5 1331 1336 30.11% 23.35% 46.54%-0.33 +0.9 12
2017-09-10 Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-032.0 1389 1219 64.68% 20.80% 14.52%+1.24 +8.5 10
2017-09-10 @ FC Zaria L 0-232.0 1219 1389 14.52% 20.80% 64.68%-1.24 -8.5 7
2017-09-10 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-244.6 1280 1614 11.30% 19.48% 69.22%-1.54 -3.3 9
2017-09-10 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 2-144.6 1614 1280 69.22% 19.48% 11.30%+1.54 +3.3 23
2017-09-10 Spicul Chiscareni W 2-035.7 1474 1333 61.97% 21.43% 16.59%+1.08 +9.7 21
2017-09-10 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-235.7 1333 1474 16.59% 21.43% 61.97%-1.08 -9.7 10
2017-09-15 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-439.9 1324 1332 44.76% 23.43% 31.81%+0.26 -42.4 10
2017-09-15 @ Spicul Chiscareni W 4-039.9 1332 1324 31.81% 23.43% 44.76%-0.26 +42.4 15
2017-09-15 Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-033.4 1479 1211 72.45% 18.32% 9.23%+1.78 +2.8 22
2017-09-15 @ Dacia Chisinau L 0-133.4 1211 1479 9.23% 18.32% 72.45%-1.78 -2.8 7
2017-09-16 Dinamo-Auto W 1-036.9 1335 1239 57.42% 22.26% 20.31%+0.83 +6.2 11
2017-09-16 @ Zimbru L 0-136.9 1239 1335 20.31% 22.26% 57.42%-0.83 -6.2 8
2017-09-16 Milsami Orhei L 1-341.9 1277 1484 20.16% 22.24% 57.60%-0.84 -10.0 9
2017-09-16 @ Speranta Nisporeni W 3-141.9 1484 1277 57.60% 22.24% 20.16%+0.84 +10.0 24
2017-09-17 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-243.3 1397 1617 19.03% 22.01% 58.95%-0.91 -11.0 10
2017-09-17 @ FC Zaria W 2-043.3 1617 1397 58.95% 22.01% 19.03%+0.91 +11.0 26
2017-09-23 Dacia Chisinau W 6-351.9 1628 1481 62.54% 21.31% 16.15%+1.11 +9.2 29
2017-09-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 3-651.9 1481 1628 16.15% 21.31% 62.54%-1.11 -9.2 22
2017-09-23 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-046.2 1233 1374 26.93% 23.12% 49.94%-0.48 +13.0 11
2017-09-23 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-146.2 1374 1233 49.94% 23.12% 26.93%+0.48 -13.0 15
2017-09-23 Zimbru D 0-049.9 1208 1341 27.78% 23.19% 49.02%-0.44 +1.3 8
2017-09-23 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 0-049.9 1341 1208 49.02% 23.19% 27.78%+0.44 -1.4 12
2017-09-24 FC Zaria W 1-041.5 1494 1386 58.62% 22.07% 19.31%+0.89 +5.9 27
2017-09-24 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-141.5 1386 1494 19.31% 22.07% 58.62%-0.89 -5.9 10
2017-09-24 Spicul Chiscareni W 2-037.9 1267 1281 43.86% 23.47% 32.67%+0.22 +17.4 12
2017-09-24 @ Speranta Nisporeni L 0-237.9 1281 1267 32.67% 23.47% 43.86%-0.22 -17.4 10
2017-09-29 Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-255.2 1361 1209 63.02% 21.20% 15.77%+1.14 -15.1 15
2017-09-29 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-155.2 1209 1361 15.77% 21.20% 63.02%-1.14 +15.1 11
2017-09-30 Dinamo-Auto D 1-154.5 1264 1246 48.17% 23.25% 28.58%+0.40 -1.1 11
2017-09-30 @ Spicul Chiscareni D 1-154.5 1246 1264 28.58% 23.25% 48.17%-0.40 +1.1 12
2017-09-30 Milsami Orhei D 1-162.9 1472 1500 42.02% 23.52% 34.46%+0.15 -0.4 23
2017-09-30 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-162.9 1500 1472 34.46% 23.52% 42.02%-0.15 +0.4 28
2017-09-30 Speranta Nisporeni W 3-032.8 1381 1285 57.42% 22.27% 20.32%+0.83 +16.9 13
2017-09-30 @ FC Zaria L 0-332.8 1285 1381 20.32% 22.27% 57.42%-0.83 -16.9 12
2017-10-01 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-248.4 1340 1637 13.35% 20.38% 66.27%-1.34 -3.9 12
2017-10-01 @ Zimbru W 2-148.4 1637 1340 66.27% 20.38% 13.35%+1.34 +3.9 32
2017-10-14 Dacia Chisinau D 0-051.9 1268 1472 20.40% 22.28% 57.32%-0.83 +2.5 13
2017-10-14 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-051.9 1472 1268 57.32% 22.28% 20.40%+0.83 -2.5 24
2017-10-14 Spicul Chiscareni W 3-031.6 1398 1263 61.38% 21.56% 17.06%+1.04 +14.4 16
2017-10-14 @ FC Zaria L 0-331.6 1263 1398 17.06% 21.56% 61.38%-1.04 -14.4 11
2017-10-14 Zimbru W 1-038.6 1500 1336 64.15% 20.94% 14.92%+1.21 +4.6 31
2017-10-14 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-138.6 1336 1500 14.92% 20.94% 64.15%-1.21 -4.6 12
2017-10-15 Dinamo-Auto W 1-040.9 1224 1247 42.69% 23.50% 33.81%+0.17 +9.5 14
2017-10-15 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-140.9 1247 1224 33.81% 23.50% 42.69%-0.17 -9.5 12
2017-10-15 Petrocub Hincesti W 3-143.5 1641 1346 74.32% 17.56% 8.13%+1.93 +4.0 35
2017-10-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-343.5 1346 1641 8.13% 17.56% 74.32%-1.93 -4.0 15
2017-10-20 FC Zaria D 1-160.0 1469 1412 53.03% 22.84% 24.13%+0.62 -1.7 25
2017-10-20 @ Dacia Chisinau D 1-160.0 1412 1469 24.13% 22.84% 53.03%-0.62 +1.7 17
2017-10-20 Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-154.4 1248 1234 47.75% 23.28% 28.97%+0.38 -1.1 12
2017-10-20 @ Spicul Chiscareni D 1-154.4 1234 1248 28.97% 23.28% 47.75%-0.38 +1.1 15
2017-10-20 Speranta Nisporeni W 2-144.0 1332 1270 53.53% 22.78% 23.69%+0.64 +6.7 15
2017-10-20 @ Zimbru L 1-244.0 1270 1332 23.69% 22.78% 53.53%-0.64 -6.7 13
2017-10-21 Milsami Orhei W 1-050.8 1342 1505 24.48% 22.88% 52.64%-0.60 +13.6 18
2017-10-21 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-150.8 1505 1342 52.64% 22.88% 24.48%+0.60 -13.6 31
2017-10-22 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-431.5 1238 1645 8.00% 17.46% 74.53%-1.95 -8.7 12
2017-10-22 @ Dinamo-Auto W 4-031.5 1645 1238 74.53% 17.46% 8.00%+1.95 +8.7 38
2017-10-28 Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-162.9 1654 1235 81.46% 14.01% 4.53%+2.62 -4.7 39
2017-10-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-162.9 1235 1654 4.53% 14.01% 81.46%-2.62 +4.7 16
2017-10-28 Spicul Chiscareni D 2-263.1 1468 1247 68.89% 19.59% 11.52%+1.52 -2.6 26
2017-10-28 @ Dacia Chisinau D 2-263.1 1247 1468 11.52% 19.59% 68.89%-1.52 +2.6 13
2017-10-28 Zimbru W 3-034.7 1414 1338 55.13% 22.59% 22.28%+0.72 +18.4 20
2017-10-28 @ FC Zaria L 0-334.7 1338 1414 22.28% 22.59% 55.13%-0.72 -18.4 15
2017-10-29 Dinamo-Auto W 2-139.7 1491 1229 72.05% 18.47% 9.48%+1.75 +2.7 34
2017-10-29 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-239.7 1229 1491 9.48% 18.47% 72.05%-1.75 -2.7 12
2017-10-29 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-050.2 1263 1355 33.01% 23.48% 43.51%-0.21 +0.7 14
2017-10-29 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-050.2 1355 1263 43.51% 23.48% 33.01%+0.21 -0.7 19
2017-11-03 Dacia Chisinau W 2-045.8 1320 1465 26.46% 23.08% 50.46%-0.50 +24.7 18
2017-11-03 @ Zimbru L 0-245.8 1465 1320 50.46% 23.08% 26.46%+0.50 -24.7 26
2017-11-03 Milsami Orhei L 0-332.2 1239 1494 16.24% 21.34% 62.43%-1.10 -13.8 16
2017-11-03 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-032.2 1494 1239 62.43% 21.34% 16.24%+1.10 +13.7 37
2017-11-04 FC Zaria D 1-157.3 1355 1432 35.02% 23.53% 41.45%-0.13 +0.3 20
2017-11-04 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-157.3 1432 1355 41.45% 23.53% 35.02%+0.13 -0.4 21
2017-11-04 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-338.2 1226 1264 40.59% 23.55% 35.86%+0.09 -30.0 12
2017-11-04 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-038.2 1264 1226 35.86% 23.55% 40.59%-0.09 +30.0 17
2017-11-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-432.2 1250 1649 8.33% 17.70% 73.97%-1.90 -9.0 13
2017-11-06 @ Spicul Chiscareni W 4-032.2 1649 1250 73.97% 17.70% 8.33%+1.90 +9.0 42
2017-11-18 Dinamo-Auto W 6-028.9 1432 1196 70.07% 19.19% 10.73%+1.60 +17.3 24
2017-11-18 @ FC Zaria L 0-628.9 1196 1432 10.73% 19.19% 70.07%-1.60 -17.4 12
2017-11-18 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-247.6 1440 1355 56.22% 22.44% 21.34%+0.77 -27.2 26
2017-11-18 @ Dacia Chisinau W 2-047.6 1355 1440 21.34% 22.44% 56.22%-0.77 +27.2 23
2017-11-18 Sfintul Gheorghe D 0-049.9 1294 1226 54.31% 22.69% 23.00%+0.68 -2.0 18
2017-11-18 @ Speranta Nisporeni D 0-049.9 1226 1294 23.00% 22.69% 54.31%-0.68 +2.0 17
2017-11-18 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-250.6 1508 1658 25.85% 23.02% 51.12%-0.53 -14.4 37
2017-11-18 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-050.6 1658 1508 51.12% 23.02% 25.85%+0.53 +14.4 45
2017-11-18 Spicul Chiscareni D 1-155.2 1345 1241 58.22% 22.14% 19.64%+0.87 -2.3 19
2017-11-18 @ Zimbru D 1-155.2 1241 1345 19.64% 22.14% 58.22%-0.87 +2.3 14
2017-11-26 FC Zaria W 2-155.1 1228 1449 18.89% 21.98% 59.13%-0.92 +14.2 20
2017-11-26 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-255.1 1449 1228 59.13% 21.98% 18.89%+0.92 -14.2 24
2017-11-26 Dacia Chisinau W 3-259.7 1179 1413 17.81% 21.74% 60.44%-0.99 +13.8 15
2017-11-26 @ Dinamo-Auto L 2-359.7 1413 1179 60.44% 21.74% 17.81%+0.99 -13.8 26
2017-11-26 Milsami Orhei L 0-234.3 1243 1493 16.57% 21.43% 62.00%-1.08 -9.6 14
2017-11-26 @ Spicul Chiscareni W 2-034.3 1493 1243 62.00% 21.43% 16.57%+1.08 +9.7 40
2017-11-26 Speranta Nisporeni L 0-160.4 1673 1292 79.44% 15.11% 5.44%+2.40 -19.3 45
2017-11-26 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-060.4 1292 1673 5.44% 15.11% 79.44%-2.40 +19.3 21
2017-11-26 Zimbru W 4-140.5 1382 1342 50.95% 23.04% 26.01%+0.52 +17.7 26
2017-11-26 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-440.5 1342 1382 26.01% 23.04% 50.95%-0.52 -17.7 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-11-26 5.44% Speranta Nisporeni 1292 1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1673 0
2 2017-07-09 14.62% Speranta Nisporeni 1280 1 @ Milsami Orhei 1449 0
3 2017-09-29 15.77% Sfintul Gheorghe 1209 2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1361 1
4 2017-11-26 17.81% @ Dinamo-Auto 1179 3 Dacia Chisinau 1413 2
5 2017-08-25 18.76% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1289 3 Dacia Chisinau 1512 0
6 2017-11-26 18.89% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1228 2 FC Zaria 1449 1
7 2017-11-18 21.34% Petrocub Hincesti 1355 2 @ Dacia Chisinau 1440 0
8 2017-08-25 23.81% @ Dinamo-Auto 1233 1 FC Zaria 1403 0
9 2017-10-21 24.48% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1342 1 Milsami Orhei 1505 0
10 2017-08-04 26.08% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1208 4 Spicul Chiscareni 1356 3
11 2017-11-03 26.46% @ Zimbru 1320 2 Dacia Chisinau 1465 0
12 2017-09-23 26.93% @ Dinamo-Auto 1233 1 Petrocub Hincesti 1374 0
13 2017-09-15 31.81% Petrocub Hincesti 1332 4 @ Spicul Chiscareni 1324 0
14 2017-08-25 34.27% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1208 2 Speranta Nisporeni 1291 1
15 2017-07-30 34.37% FC Zaria 1405 2 @ Spicul Chiscareni 1378 0
16 2017-07-16 34.81% Milsami Orhei 1432 1 @ FC Zaria 1402 0
17 2017-08-13 35.08% @ Zimbru 1339 1 FC Zaria 1416 0
18 2017-11-04 35.86% Speranta Nisporeni 1264 3 @ Dinamo-Auto 1226 0
19 2017-07-08 36.15% @ Dinamo-Auto 1275 1 Zimbru 1344 0
20 2017-08-04 36.19% @ Speranta Nisporeni 1281 1 Zimbru 1350 0
21 2017-07-22 37.59% Petrocub Hincesti 1277 2 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1227 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-09-15 42.37 Petrocub Hincesti 4 1332 31.81% @ Spicul Chiscareni 0 1324 44.76% 23.43%
2 2017-08-25 41.48 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1289 18.76% Dacia Chisinau 0 1512 59.29% 21.96%
3 2017-11-04 29.98 Speranta Nisporeni 3 1264 35.86% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1226 40.59% 23.55%
4 2017-11-18 27.22 Petrocub Hincesti 2 1355 21.34% @ Dacia Chisinau 0 1440 56.22% 22.44%
5 2017-07-22 27.00 Spicul Chiscareni 3 1351 41.02% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1276 35.44% 23.54%
6 2017-11-03 24.72 @ Zimbru 2 1320 26.46% Dacia Chisinau 0 1465 50.46% 23.08%
7 2017-07-09 23.81 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1555 60.80% FC Zaria 0 1426 17.53% 21.68%
8 2017-07-15 23.31 @ Zimbru 4 1333 55.99% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1250 21.53% 22.47%
9 2017-07-30 21.26 FC Zaria 2 1405 34.37% @ Spicul Chiscareni 0 1378 42.11% 23.52%
10 2017-07-22 19.95 Petrocub Hincesti 2 1277 37.59% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1227 38.85% 23.56%
11 2017-11-26 19.32 Speranta Nisporeni 1 1292 5.44% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1673 79.44% 15.11%
12 2017-10-28 18.39 @ FC Zaria 3 1414 55.13% Zimbru 0 1338 22.28% 22.59%
13 2017-11-26 17.71 @ Petrocub Hincesti 4 1382 50.95% Zimbru 1 1342 26.01% 23.04%
14 2017-09-24 17.43 @ Speranta Nisporeni 2 1267 43.86% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1281 32.67% 23.47%
15 2017-11-18 17.35 @ FC Zaria 6 1432 70.07% Dinamo-Auto 0 1196 10.73% 19.19%
16 2017-09-30 16.93 @ FC Zaria 3 1381 57.42% Speranta Nisporeni 0 1285 20.32% 22.27%
17 2017-07-09 16.36 Speranta Nisporeni 1 1280 14.62% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1449 64.54% 20.84%
18 2017-09-29 15.10 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1209 15.77% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1361 63.02% 21.20%
19 2017-10-14 14.42 @ FC Zaria 3 1398 61.38% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1263 17.06% 21.56%
20 2017-11-18 14.39 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1658 51.12% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1508 25.85% 23.02%
21 2017-11-26 14.24 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1228 18.89% FC Zaria 1 1449 59.13% 21.98%
22 2017-11-26 13.79 @ Dinamo-Auto 3 1179 17.81% Dacia Chisinau 2 1413 60.44% 21.74%
23 2017-08-25 13.78 @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1233 23.81% FC Zaria 0 1403 53.39% 22.80%
24 2017-11-03 13.75 Milsami Orhei 3 1494 62.43% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1239 16.24% 21.34%
25 2017-10-21 13.61 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1342 24.48% Milsami Orhei 0 1505 52.64% 22.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-07-22 68.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1578 69.01% Zimbru 2 1356 11.44% 19.55%
2 2017-07-16 66.7 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1495 34.21% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1579 42.28% 23.52%
3 2017-10-28 63.1 @ Dacia Chisinau 2 1468 68.89% Spicul Chiscareni 2 1247 11.52% 19.59%
4 2017-09-30 62.9 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1472 42.02% Milsami Orhei 1 1500 34.46% 23.52%
5 2017-10-28 62.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1654 81.46% Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1235 4.53% 14.01%
6 2017-08-20 62.1 @ FC Zaria 2 1405 59.65% Petrocub Hincesti 2 1287 18.46% 21.89%
7 2017-11-26 60.4 Speranta Nisporeni 1 1292 5.44% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1673 79.44% 15.11%
8 2017-07-29 60.3 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1249 51.27% Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1207 25.72% 23.01%
9 2017-10-20 60.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1469 53.03% FC Zaria 1 1412 24.13% 22.84%
10 2017-11-26 59.7 @ Dinamo-Auto 3 1179 17.81% Dacia Chisinau 2 1413 60.44% 21.74%
11 2017-08-04 59.5 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 4 1208 26.08% Spicul Chiscareni 3 1356 50.87% 23.05%
12 2017-11-04 57.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1355 35.02% FC Zaria 1 1432 41.45% 23.53%
13 2017-07-15 55.5 @ Spicul Chiscareni 1 1352 52.82% Speranta Nisporeni 1 1297 24.32% 22.86%
14 2017-09-09 55.5 @ Zimbru 1 1336 46.54% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1331 30.11% 23.35%
15 2017-07-23 55.3 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1444 38.54% Dacia Chisinau 1 1496 37.89% 23.56%
16 2017-09-29 55.2 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1209 15.77% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1361 63.02% 21.20%
17 2017-11-18 55.2 @ Zimbru 1 1345 58.22% Spicul Chiscareni 1 1241 19.64% 22.14%
18 2017-11-26 55.1 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1228 18.89% FC Zaria 1 1449 59.13% 21.98%
19 2017-08-12 54.8 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1288 45.28% Speranta Nisporeni 1 1292 31.31% 23.41%
20 2017-08-19 54.7 @ Speranta Nisporeni 1 1293 53.47% Dinamo-Auto 1 1232 23.74% 22.79%
21 2017-09-30 54.5 @ Spicul Chiscareni 1 1264 48.17% Dinamo-Auto 1 1246 28.58% 23.25%
22 2017-10-20 54.4 @ Spicul Chiscareni 1 1248 47.75% Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1234 28.97% 23.28%
23 2017-09-23 51.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1628 62.54% Dacia Chisinau 3 1481 16.15% 21.31%
24 2017-10-14 51.9 @ Speranta Nisporeni 0 1268 20.40% Dacia Chisinau 0 1472 57.32% 22.28%
25 2017-08-27 51.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1605 60.06% Milsami Orhei 1 1483 18.12% 21.82%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-11-18 28.9 @ FC Zaria 6 1432 70.07% Dinamo-Auto 0 1196 10.73% 19.19%
2 2017-08-12 30.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1583 71.49% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1219 9.82% 18.68%
3 2017-10-22 31.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1645 74.53% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1238 8.00% 17.46%
4 2017-10-14 31.6 @ FC Zaria 3 1398 61.38% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1263 17.06% 21.56%
5 2017-09-10 32.0 @ FC Zaria 2 1389 64.68% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1219 14.52% 20.80%
6 2017-07-15 32.1 @ Zimbru 4 1333 55.99% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1250 21.53% 22.47%
7 2017-11-03 32.2 Milsami Orhei 3 1494 62.43% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1239 16.24% 21.34%
8 2017-11-06 32.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1649 73.97% @ Spicul Chiscareni 0 1250 8.33% 17.70%
9 2017-09-30 32.8 @ FC Zaria 3 1381 57.42% Speranta Nisporeni 0 1285 20.32% 22.27%
10 2017-08-19 33.4 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1480 72.54% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1211 9.18% 18.28%
11 2017-09-15 33.4 @ Dacia Chisinau 1 1479 72.45% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1211 9.23% 18.32%
12 2017-08-20 34.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1591 71.45% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1337 9.85% 18.70%
13 2017-11-26 34.3 Milsami Orhei 2 1493 62.00% @ Spicul Chiscareni 0 1243 16.57% 21.43%
14 2017-10-28 34.7 @ FC Zaria 3 1414 55.13% Zimbru 0 1338 22.28% 22.59%
15 2017-09-09 35.0 @ Dacia Chisinau 4 1470 69.13% Dinamo-Auto 1 1247 11.36% 19.51%
16 2017-09-10 35.7 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1474 61.97% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1333 16.59% 21.43%
17 2017-08-05 36.7 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1463 64.69% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1293 14.51% 20.80%
18 2017-09-16 36.9 @ Zimbru 1 1335 57.42% Dinamo-Auto 0 1239 20.31% 22.26%
19 2017-07-22 37.4 Spicul Chiscareni 3 1351 41.02% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1276 35.44% 23.54%
20 2017-08-05 37.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1580 76.60% Dinamo-Auto 1 1248 6.87% 16.53%
21 2017-07-09 37.8 Dacia Chisinau 1 1490 60.46% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1256 17.80% 21.74%
22 2017-08-12 37.9 Milsami Orhei 4 1467 59.22% @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1245 18.81% 21.97%
23 2017-09-24 37.9 @ Speranta Nisporeni 2 1267 43.86% Spicul Chiscareni 0 1281 32.67% 23.47%
24 2017-11-04 38.2 Speranta Nisporeni 3 1264 35.86% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1226 40.59% 23.55%
25 2017-10-14 38.6 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1500 64.15% Zimbru 0 1336 14.92% 20.94%