2026-27 Super Liga Season
52 games played · 8 teams
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Sheriff Tiraspol
72.81% chance to win the title
Biggest Overachiever
Dacia Buiucani
8.16 points above expected
20 points · 11.84 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Real Sireti
7.28 points below expected
7 points · 14.28 expected points
League Table
Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 24.96 | +3.04 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 24.87 | +1.13 |
| 3 | Petrocub Hincesti | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 26.31 | -2.31 |
| 4 | Dacia Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11.84 | +8.16 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 16.44 | +0.56 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 12.55 | +2.45 |
| 7 | Real Sireti | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 14.28 | -7.28 |
| 8 | Balti | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 42 | -33 | 11.60 | -6.60 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dacia Buiucani | 20 | 11.84 | +8.16 |
| 2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 28 | 24.96 | +3.04 |
| 3 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 15 | 12.55 | +2.45 |
| 4 | Zimbru | 26 | 24.87 | +1.13 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 17 | 16.44 | +0.56 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sireti | 7 | 14.28 | -7.28 |
| 2 | Balti | 5 | 11.60 | -6.60 |
| 3 | Petrocub Hincesti | 24 | 26.31 | -2.31 |
| 4 | Milsami Orhei | 17 | 16.44 | +0.56 |
| 5 | Zimbru | 26 | 24.87 | +1.13 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dacia Buiucani | 2 | Jul 5 – Jul 12 | 1 in 23 |
| 2 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 2 | Jul 11 – Jul 18 | 1 in 18 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 5 | Aug 16 – Sep 12 | 1 in 16 |
| 4 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2 | Jul 12 – Jul 19 | 1 in 10 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 1 | Jul 19 – Jul 19 | 1 in 2 |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | Aug 15 – Aug 22 | 1 in 61 |
| 2 | Real Sireti | 3 | Jun 28 – Jul 11 | 1 in 36 |
| 3 | Balti | 6 | Aug 15 – Sep 20 | 1 in 20 |
| 4 | Milsami Orhei | 2 | Jul 4 – Jul 12 | 1 in 9 |
| 5 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | Aug 29 – Aug 29 | 1 in 3 |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sireti | 7 | Jul 18 – Aug 29 | 1 in 110 |
| 2 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 3 | Jul 4 – Jul 18 | 1 in 11 |
| 3 | Dacia Buiucani | 3 | Aug 15 – Aug 30 | 1 in 11 |
| 4 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 9 | Jun 28 – Aug 23 | 1 in 7 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 4 | Jul 19 – Aug 8 | 1 in 7 |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sireti | 13 | Jun 28 – Sep 20 | 1 in 97 |
| 2 | Balti | 12 | Jul 5 – Sep 20 | 1 in 15 |
| 3 | Petrocub Hincesti | 3 | Jul 11 – Jul 26 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | Milsami Orhei | 4 | Jul 26 – Aug 16 | 1 in 4 |
| 5 | Zimbru | 2 | Jul 12 – Jul 18 | 1 in 4 |
Position Race
Each team’s league position across the whole season. The current top 3 and bottom 3 are highlighted; everyone else is gray as context.
Recent Elo Movers
Which teams are the hottest and coldest over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?
Biggest Elo Gainers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balti | +0.00 | 922 |
| 2 | Dacia Buiucani | +0.00 | 1081 |
| 3 | Milsami Orhei | +0.00 | 1161 |
| 4 | Petrocub Hincesti | +0.00 | 1341 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | +0.00 | 1090 |
Biggest Elo Losers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balti | +0.00 | 922 |
| 2 | Dacia Buiucani | +0.00 | 1081 |
| 3 | Milsami Orhei | +0.00 | 1161 |
| 4 | Petrocub Hincesti | +0.00 | 1341 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | +0.00 | 1090 |
Recent Form
Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.
| Team | Elo | Season Pts | Form | Elo Δ (5) | Points (5) | Expected (5) | Actual − Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 1358 | 28 | +20 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | |
| Zimbru | 1328 | 26 | +18 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | |
| Petrocub Hincesti | 1341 | 24 | -1 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | |
| Dacia Buiucani | 1081 | 20 | +36 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | |
| Milsami Orhei | 1161 | 17 | +31 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | |
| Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1090 | 15 | -16 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | |
| Real Sireti | 1066 | 7 | -25 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | |
| Balti | 922 | 5 | -63 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
Upcoming Matches
The next slate of games with the model’s win / draw probabilities and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Win% – Draw% – Win% | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Balti | 5 pts·922 | 23% – 28% – 49% | Real Sireti | 7 pts·1066 | 0.64 | 38.3 | |
| 2026-10-10 | Dacia Buiucani | 20 pts·1081 | 13% – 24% – 63% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 28 pts·1358 | 1.47 | 38.9 | |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.69 | Milsami Orhei | 17 pts·1161 | 50% – 27% – 22% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 15 pts·1090 | 47.2 | |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.33 | Petrocub Hincesti | 24 pts·1341 | 43% – 28% – 29% | Zimbru | 26 pts·1328 | 60.5 | |
| 2026-10-17 | 2.06 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 28 pts·1358 | 71% – 20% – 8% | Real Sireti | 7 pts·1066 | 32.1 | |
| 2026-10-17 | 1.86 | Petrocub Hincesti | 24 pts·1341 | 69% – 22% – 10% | Dacia Buiucani | 20 pts·1081 | 35.1 |
Recent Matches
The most recent results with an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo · Elo change.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Score | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Real Sireti | 7 pts·1076·-10.13 | 1 – 2 | Milsami Orhei | 17 pts·1151·+10.13 | 0.22 | 46.4 | |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.83 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 28 pts·1348·+9.76 | 7 – 0 | Balti | 5 pts·932·-9.76 | 25.5 | |
| 2026-09-19 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 15 pts·1095·-5.74 | 0 – 1 | Petrocub Hincesti | 24 pts·1335·+5.75 | 1.24 | 35.7 | |
| 2026-09-19 | 2.04 | Zimbru | 26 pts·1348·-20.74 | 0 – 1 | Dacia Buiucani | 20 pts·1061·+20.73 | 51.1 | |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.78 | Dacia Buiucani | 20 pts·1039·+21.34 | 3 – 0 | Balti | 5 pts·954·-21.34 | 34.2 | |
| 2026-09-13 | Milsami Orhei | 17 pts·1158·-7.29 | 0 – 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 28 pts·1341·+7.29 | 0.89 | 37.6 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
| Team | BAL | DB | MO | PH | PUC | RS | ST | ZIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balti | — |
0-0-2
2.70
|
0-0-2
1.93
|
0-1-1
1.00
|
1-0-1
2.86
|
0-1-0
1.00
|
0-0-2
0.93
|
0-0-2
1.19
|
| Dacia Buiucani |
2-0-0
2.76
|
— |
1-1-0
1.95
|
1-0-1
0.90
|
0-0-2
2.67
|
1-1-0
1.99
|
0-0-1
0.43
|
1-0-1
1.15
|
| Milsami Orhei |
2-0-0
3.52
|
0-1-1
3.50
|
— |
1-0-1
1.43
|
0-1-0
1.55
|
1-1-0
3.23
|
0-1-1
1.47
|
0-1-1
1.73
|
| Petrocub Hincesti |
1-1-0
4.58
|
1-0-1
4.70
|
1-0-1
4.06
|
— |
2-0-0
4.39
|
1-1-0
4.38
|
0-1-1
2.86
|
1-0-0
1.35
|
| Politehnica UTM Chisinau |
1-0-1
2.58
|
2-0-0
2.77
|
0-1-0
1.17
|
0-0-2
1.16
|
— |
1-1-0
2.43
|
0-1-1
1.13
|
0-0-2
1.30
|
| Real Sireti |
0-1-0
1.72
|
0-1-1
3.45
|
0-1-1
2.21
|
0-1-1
1.16
|
0-1-1
3.01
|
— |
0-1-1
1.44
|
0-1-1
1.29
|
| Sheriff Tiraspol |
2-0-0
4.68
|
1-0-0
2.38
|
1-1-0
4.02
|
1-1-0
2.58
|
1-1-0
4.41
|
1-1-0
4.06
|
— |
1-0-1
2.84
|
| Zimbru |
2-0-0
4.34
|
1-0-1
4.39
|
1-1-0
3.74
|
0-0-1
1.37
|
2-0-0
4.22
|
1-1-0
4.22
|
1-0-1
2.59
|
— |
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.88 | +9.2 |
| Allowed | 0.66 | -6.9 |
| Differential | 0.90 | +4.7 |
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.46% | 5.77% | 1.92% | 5.77% | 2.88% | 2.88% | 32.69% |
| 1 | 5.77% | 9.62% | 9.62% | 1.92% | 0.96% | 1.92% | 29.81% |
| 2 | 1.92% | 9.62% | 3.85% | 0.96% | 1.92% | — | 18.27% |
| 3 | 5.77% | 1.92% | 0.96% | — | — | — | 8.65% |
| 4 | 2.88% | 0.96% | 1.92% | — | — | — | 5.77% |
| 5+ | 2.88% | 1.92% | — | — | — | — | 4.81% |
| Total | 32.69% | 29.81% | 18.27% | 8.65% | 5.77% | 4.81% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.51 | 1.51 | 2.39 |
| CV | 1.06 | 1.06 | — |
| Max | 7 | 7 | +7 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Games Played: 52
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 23.08% | 7.69% | 15.38% | 46.15% |
| 1 | — | 15.38% | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | 46.15% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.69% | 15.38% | 7.69% | 30.77% | 15.38% | 23.08% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.69 | 3.23 | -2.54 |
| SD | 0.85 | 2.01 | 2.63 |
| CV | 1.23 | 0.62 | — |
| Max | 3 | 7 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | — | 7.69% | — | 30.77% |
| 1 | 15.38% | — | 15.38% | — | — | 7.69% | 38.46% |
| 2 | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 3 | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 4 | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 46.15% | 23.08% | 15.38% | — | 7.69% | 7.69% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.31 | 1.23 | +0.08 |
| SD | 1.32 | 1.64 | 2.33 |
| CV | 1.01 | 1.33 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.08% | 15.38% | — | — | — | 7.69% | 46.15% |
| 1 | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 2 | — | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | 7.69% | — | 30.77% |
| 3 | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 30.77% | 46.15% | 7.69% | — | 7.69% | 7.69% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.31 | -0.31 |
| SD | 1.08 | 1.55 | 1.75 |
| CV | 1.08 | 1.18 | — |
| Max | 3 | 5 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 1 | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | 23.08% |
| 2 | — | 23.08% | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | 38.46% |
| 3 | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| Total | 30.77% | 46.15% | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.85 | 1.00 | +0.85 |
| SD | 1.34 | 0.91 | 1.72 |
| CV | 0.73 | 0.91 | — |
| Max | 5 | 3 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.38% | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | 46.15% |
| 1 | — | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | 23.08% |
| 2 | — | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| Total | 23.08% | 38.46% | 15.38% | 15.38% | 7.69% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.38 | 1.46 | -0.08 |
| SD | 1.98 | 1.27 | 2.72 |
| CV | 1.43 | 0.87 | — |
| Max | 6 | 4 | +6 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.08% | — | 7.69% | 15.38% | — | — | 46.15% |
| 1 | — | 23.08% | 23.08% | — | — | — | 46.15% |
| 2 | — | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 23.08% | 23.08% | 38.46% | 15.38% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.62 | 1.46 | -0.85 |
| SD | 0.65 | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| CV | 1.06 | 0.72 | — |
| Max | 2 | 3 | +0 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.38% | — | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 1 | 15.38% | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | 30.77% |
| 2 | — | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 3 | 7.69% | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 4 | 7.69% | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 5+ | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| Total | 53.85% | 15.38% | 30.77% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.46 | 0.77 | +1.69 |
| SD | 2.11 | 0.93 | 2.25 |
| CV | 0.86 | 1.20 | — |
| Max | 7 | 2 | +7 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 13
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 1 | — | 7.69% | 7.69% | — | — | — | 15.38% |
| 2 | 15.38% | 15.38% | — | — | 7.69% | — | 38.46% |
| 3 | 7.69% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.69% |
| 4 | 15.38% | — | 7.69% | — | — | — | 23.08% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 46.15% | 30.77% | 15.38% | — | 7.69% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.08 | 0.92 | +1.15 |
| SD | 1.38 | 1.19 | 1.91 |
| CV | 0.67 | 1.29 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 13
Season Summary
Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Exp. Pts. Rem. | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 1358 | 28 | 44.41 | 16.41 | 31 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 47 | 50 | 52 |
| Petrocub Hincesti | 1341 | 24 | 39.51 | 15.51 | 27 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 |
| Zimbru | 1328 | 26 | 40.48 | 14.48 | 28 | 35 | 38 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 |
| Milsami Orhei | 1161 | 17 | 28.34 | 11.34 | 18 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 39 |
| Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1090 | 15 | 23.43 | 8.43 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 36 |
| Dacia Buiucani | 1081 | 20 | 28.08 | 8.08 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 41 |
| Real Sireti | 1066 | 7 | 15.73 | 8.73 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 31 |
| Balti | 922 | 5 | 10.06 | 5.06 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 24 |
Point Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Final Table Odds
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 72.81% | 21.53% | 5.54% | 0.11% | 0.01% | — | — | — |
| Zimbru | 16.57% | 46.17% | 36.22% | 0.98% | 0.06% | — | — | — |
| Petrocub Hincesti | 10.62% | 32.15% | 55.42% | 1.69% | 0.10% | 0.02% | — | — |
| Dacia Buiucani | — | 0.10% | 1.28% | 46.31% | 41.05% | 11.00% | 0.26% | — |
| Milsami Orhei | — | 0.05% | 1.49% | 43.24% | 38.82% | 16.14% | 0.26% | — |
| Politehnica UTM Chisinau | — | — | 0.05% | 7.64% | 19.68% | 67.98% | 4.61% | 0.04% |
| Real Sireti | — | — | — | 0.03% | 0.27% | 4.78% | 84.10% | 10.82% |
| Balti | — | — | — | — | 0.01% | 0.08% | 10.77% | 89.14% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Qualified for Championship Round | Qualified for relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Balti | 0.09% | 99.91% |
| Dacia Buiucani | 99.74% | 0.26% |
| Milsami Orhei | 99.74% | 0.26% |
| Petrocub Hincesti | 100% | — |
| Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 95.35% | 4.65% |
| Real Sireti | 5.08% | 94.92% |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 100% | — |
| Zimbru | 100% | — |
Overall Game Log
Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Excitement | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 3-0 | 35.4 | 1084 | 1032 | 48.12% | 27.79% | 24.09% | +0.57 | +24.2 | 3 |
| 2026-06-27 | @ Balti | L 0-3 | 35.4 | 1032 | 1084 | 24.09% | 27.79% | 48.12% | -0.57 | -24.2 | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Zimbru | D 0-0 | 47.4 | 1166 | 1286 | 25.48% | 27.98% | 46.54% | -0.49 | +1.5 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | @ Milsami Orhei | D 0-0 | 47.4 | 1286 | 1166 | 46.54% | 27.98% | 25.48% | +0.49 | -1.6 | 1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Real Sireti | W 3-0 | 33.0 | 1285 | 1155 | 57.04% | 26.02% | 16.94% | +1.06 | +17.8 | 3 |
| 2026-06-28 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | L 0-3 | 33.0 | 1155 | 1285 | 16.94% | 26.02% | 57.04% | -1.06 | -17.8 | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Dacia Buiucani | W 2-1 | 36.2 | 1340 | 999 | 74.87% | 18.42% | 6.71% | +2.36 | +2.3 | 3 |
| 2026-06-28 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | L 1-2 | 36.2 | 999 | 1340 | 6.71% | 18.42% | 74.87% | -2.36 | -2.3 | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sheriff Tiraspol | D 0-0 | 48.6 | 1008 | 1303 | 11.65% | 23.29% | 65.06% | -1.58 | +4.3 | 1 |
| 2026-07-04 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | D 0-0 | 48.6 | 1303 | 1008 | 65.06% | 23.29% | 11.65% | +1.58 | -4.3 | 4 |
| 2026-07-04 | Milsami Orhei | W 5-0 | 31.0 | 1342 | 1167 | 61.40% | 24.68% | 13.91% | +1.33 | +23.7 | 6 |
| 2026-07-04 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | L 0-5 | 31.0 | 1167 | 1342 | 13.91% | 24.68% | 61.40% | -1.33 | -23.7 | 1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Real Sireti | W 3-0 | 42.9 | 996 | 1137 | 23.21% | 27.64% | 49.14% | -0.62 | +41.9 | 3 |
| 2026-07-05 | @ Dacia Buiucani | L 0-3 | 42.9 | 1137 | 996 | 49.14% | 27.64% | 23.21% | +0.62 | -41.9 | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Balti | W 3-0 | 31.6 | 1284 | 1108 | 61.56% | 24.63% | 13.81% | +1.34 | +14.6 | 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | @ Zimbru | L 0-3 | 31.6 | 1108 | 1284 | 13.81% | 24.63% | 61.56% | -1.34 | -14.6 | 3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | L 1-2 | 52.2 | 1095 | 1012 | 51.86% | 27.19% | 20.95% | +0.76 | -15.1 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | @ Real Sireti | W 2-1 | 52.2 | 1012 | 1095 | 20.95% | 27.19% | 51.86% | -0.76 | +15.1 | 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Petrocub Hincesti | D 1-1 | 52.8 | 1094 | 1365 | 12.90% | 24.11% | 62.99% | -1.44 | +3.6 | 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | @ Balti | D 1-1 | 52.8 | 1365 | 1094 | 62.99% | 24.11% | 12.90% | +1.44 | -3.6 | 7 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dacia Buiucani | L 0-1 | 47.8 | 1144 | 1038 | 54.38% | 26.68% | 18.94% | +0.90 | -16.7 | 1 |
| 2026-07-12 | @ Milsami Orhei | W 1-0 | 47.8 | 1038 | 1144 | 18.94% | 26.68% | 54.38% | -0.90 | +16.7 | 6 |
| 2026-07-12 | Zimbru | W 4-2 | 49.1 | 1299 | 1299 | 41.38% | 28.41% | 30.21% | +0.25 | +15.4 | 7 |
| 2026-07-12 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | L 2-4 | 49.1 | 1299 | 1299 | 30.21% | 28.41% | 41.38% | -0.25 | -15.4 | 4 |
| 2026-07-18 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | L 1-5 | 45.0 | 1055 | 1027 | 45.06% | 28.13% | 26.80% | +0.42 | -42.5 | 6 |
| 2026-07-18 | @ Dacia Buiucani | W 5-1 | 45.0 | 1027 | 1055 | 26.80% | 28.13% | 45.06% | -0.42 | +42.5 | 7 |
| 2026-07-18 | Real Sireti | D 1-1 | 52.8 | 1283 | 1080 | 64.05% | 23.70% | 12.25% | +1.51 | -3.7 | 5 |
| 2026-07-18 | @ Zimbru | D 1-1 | 52.8 | 1080 | 1283 | 12.25% | 23.70% | 64.05% | -1.51 | +3.7 | 1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Balti | W 2-1 | 44.9 | 1127 | 1097 | 45.36% | 28.11% | 26.54% | +0.44 | +9.0 | 4 |
| 2026-07-19 | @ Milsami Orhei | L 1-2 | 44.9 | 1097 | 1127 | 26.54% | 28.11% | 45.36% | -0.44 | -9.0 | 4 |
| 2026-07-19 | Sheriff Tiraspol | L 2-3 | 57.6 | 1362 | 1314 | 47.61% | 27.85% | 24.53% | +0.55 | -13.3 | 7 |
| 2026-07-19 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | W 3-2 | 57.6 | 1314 | 1362 | 24.53% | 27.85% | 47.61% | -0.55 | +13.3 | 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | Dacia Buiucani | L 1-4 | 48.2 | 1088 | 1013 | 50.99% | 27.35% | 21.66% | +0.72 | -36.4 | 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | @ Balti | W 4-1 | 48.2 | 1013 | 1088 | 21.66% | 27.35% | 50.99% | -0.72 | +36.4 | 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | Zimbru | L 0-2 | 34.4 | 1070 | 1280 | 17.02% | 26.05% | 56.93% | -1.05 | -12.3 | 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 2-0 | 34.4 | 1280 | 1070 | 56.93% | 26.05% | 17.02% | +1.05 | +12.3 | 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | Petrocub Hincesti | D 0-0 | 48.4 | 1084 | 1349 | 13.32% | 24.36% | 62.32% | -1.39 | +3.9 | 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | @ Real Sireti | D 0-0 | 48.4 | 1349 | 1084 | 62.32% | 24.36% | 13.32% | +1.39 | -3.9 | 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | Milsami Orhei | D 0-0 | 48.6 | 1328 | 1136 | 62.99% | 24.11% | 12.90% | +1.44 | -4.0 | 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | D 0-0 | 48.6 | 1136 | 1328 | 12.90% | 24.11% | 62.99% | -1.44 | +4.0 | 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | Real Sireti | D 2-2 | 56.8 | 1140 | 1088 | 48.18% | 27.78% | 24.04% | +0.57 | -1.2 | 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | @ Milsami Orhei | D 2-2 | 56.8 | 1088 | 1140 | 24.04% | 27.78% | 48.18% | -0.57 | +1.2 | 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Sheriff Tiraspol | L 1-5 | 34.3 | 1052 | 1323 | 12.91% | 24.11% | 62.98% | -1.44 | -14.9 | 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | @ Balti | W 5-1 | 34.3 | 1323 | 1052 | 62.98% | 24.11% | 12.91% | +1.44 | +14.8 | 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | Zimbru | L 0-4 | 31.1 | 1049 | 1292 | 14.67% | 25.07% | 60.26% | -1.26 | -20.3 | 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | @ Dacia Buiucani | W 4-0 | 31.1 | 1292 | 1049 | 60.26% | 25.07% | 14.67% | +1.26 | +20.3 | 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 3-1 | 35.6 | 1345 | 1058 | 70.98% | 20.54% | 8.48% | +2.03 | +5.1 | 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | L 1-3 | 35.6 | 1058 | 1345 | 8.48% | 20.54% | 70.98% | -2.03 | -5.1 | 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | Milsami Orhei | D 1-1 | 51.3 | 1052 | 1139 | 29.45% | 28.36% | 42.19% | -0.29 | +0.8 | 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | D 1-1 | 51.3 | 1139 | 1052 | 42.19% | 28.36% | 29.45% | +0.29 | -0.8 | 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | Balti | D 1-1 | 51.4 | 1089 | 1037 | 48.17% | 27.78% | 24.05% | +0.57 | -1.6 | 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Real Sireti | D 1-1 | 51.4 | 1037 | 1089 | 24.05% | 27.78% | 48.17% | -0.57 | +1.6 | 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | Dacia Buiucani | W 1-0 | 31.8 | 1338 | 1029 | 72.65% | 19.66% | 7.69% | +2.17 | +2.8 | 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | L 0-1 | 31.8 | 1029 | 1338 | 7.69% | 19.66% | 72.65% | -2.17 | -2.8 | 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | Petrocub Hincesti | L 1-2 | 49.4 | 1312 | 1350 | 36.11% | 28.56% | 35.34% | +0.02 | -11.3 | 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Zimbru | W 2-1 | 49.4 | 1350 | 1312 | 35.34% | 28.56% | 36.11% | -0.02 | +11.3 | 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | Balti | W 6-0 | 36.1 | 1053 | 1038 | 43.36% | 28.28% | 28.36% | +0.34 | +52.7 | 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | L 0-6 | 36.1 | 1038 | 1053 | 28.36% | 28.28% | 43.36% | -0.34 | -52.7 | 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | Petrocub Hincesti | W 2-1 | 55.8 | 1026 | 1361 | 9.77% | 21.80% | 68.43% | -1.83 | +19.0 | 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Dacia Buiucani | L 1-2 | 55.8 | 1361 | 1026 | 68.43% | 21.80% | 9.77% | +1.83 | -19.0 | 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | Sheriff Tiraspol | D 1-1 | 52.6 | 1087 | 1341 | 13.98% | 24.72% | 61.30% | -1.32 | +3.4 | 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | @ Real Sireti | D 1-1 | 52.6 | 1341 | 1087 | 61.30% | 24.72% | 13.98% | +1.32 | -3.4 | 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | Milsami Orhei | W 4-2 | 42.8 | 1301 | 1138 | 60.30% | 25.05% | 14.65% | +1.26 | +8.3 | 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | @ Zimbru | L 2-4 | 42.8 | 1138 | 1301 | 14.65% | 25.05% | 60.30% | -1.26 | -8.3 | 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | Zimbru | L 0-4 | 28.9 | 986 | 1309 | 10.29% | 22.25% | 67.46% | -1.76 | -14.0 | 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Balti | W 4-0 | 28.9 | 1309 | 986 | 67.46% | 22.25% | 10.29% | +1.76 | +14.0 | 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | Petrocub Hincesti | W 1-0 | 48.7 | 1130 | 1342 | 16.83% | 25.98% | 57.19% | -1.07 | +17.4 | 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Milsami Orhei | L 0-1 | 48.7 | 1342 | 1130 | 57.19% | 25.98% | 16.83% | +1.07 | -17.4 | 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dacia Buiucani | D 0-0 | 47.1 | 1091 | 1045 | 47.38% | 27.88% | 24.73% | +0.53 | -1.7 | 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | @ Real Sireti | D 0-0 | 47.1 | 1045 | 1091 | 24.73% | 27.88% | 47.38% | -0.53 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 4-0 | 29.4 | 1338 | 1106 | 66.55% | 22.66% | 10.79% | +1.69 | +14.8 | 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | L 0-4 | 29.4 | 1106 | 1338 | 10.79% | 22.66% | 66.55% | -1.69 | -14.8 | 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | Real Sireti | D 0-0 | 47.0 | 1091 | 1089 | 41.65% | 28.39% | 29.96% | +0.26 | -0.8 | 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | D 0-0 | 47.0 | 1089 | 1091 | 29.96% | 28.39% | 41.65% | -0.26 | +0.8 | 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sheriff Tiraspol | W 2-1 | 48.9 | 1323 | 1353 | 37.27% | 28.55% | 34.18% | +0.07 | +10.9 | 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Zimbru | L 1-2 | 48.9 | 1353 | 1323 | 34.18% | 28.55% | 37.27% | -0.07 | -10.9 | 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | Balti | W 3-0 | 27.2 | 1325 | 972 | 75.70% | 17.94% | 6.36% | +2.44 | +6.2 | 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | L 0-3 | 27.2 | 972 | 1325 | 6.36% | 17.94% | 75.70% | -2.44 | -6.2 | 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | Milsami Orhei | D 0-0 | 47.1 | 1047 | 1147 | 27.71% | 28.22% | 44.07% | -0.37 | +1.2 | 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Dacia Buiucani | D 0-0 | 47.1 | 1147 | 1047 | 44.07% | 28.22% | 27.71% | +0.37 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | Dacia Buiucani | W 2-1 | 44.4 | 1090 | 1048 | 46.96% | 27.93% | 25.11% | +0.51 | +8.6 | 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | L 1-2 | 44.4 | 1048 | 1090 | 25.11% | 27.93% | 46.96% | -0.51 | -8.6 | 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | Petrocub Hincesti | D 2-2 | 58.2 | 1342 | 1331 | 42.83% | 28.32% | 28.85% | +0.32 | -0.7 | 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | D 2-2 | 58.2 | 1331 | 1342 | 28.85% | 28.32% | 42.83% | -0.32 | +0.7 | 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | Zimbru | L 0-2 | 33.5 | 1090 | 1334 | 14.60% | 25.03% | 60.37% | -1.26 | -10.6 | 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | @ Real Sireti | W 2-0 | 33.5 | 1334 | 1090 | 60.37% | 25.03% | 14.60% | +1.26 | +10.6 | 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | Milsami Orhei | L 1-3 | 40.6 | 966 | 1146 | 19.42% | 26.81% | 53.77% | -0.87 | -12.0 | 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | @ Balti | W 3-1 | 40.6 | 1146 | 966 | 53.77% | 26.81% | 19.42% | +0.87 | +12.0 | 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 2-1 | 38.5 | 1345 | 1099 | 67.70% | 22.14% | 10.16% | +1.77 | +3.6 | 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Zimbru | L 1-2 | 38.5 | 1099 | 1345 | 10.16% | 22.14% | 67.70% | -1.77 | -3.6 | 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | Real Sireti | W 2-1 | 38.3 | 1332 | 1079 | 68.23% | 21.89% | 9.88% | +1.82 | +3.5 | 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | L 1-2 | 38.3 | 1079 | 1332 | 9.88% | 21.89% | 68.23% | -1.82 | -3.5 | 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | Balti | W 3-0 | 34.2 | 1039 | 954 | 52.15% | 27.14% | 20.71% | +0.78 | +21.3 | 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | @ Dacia Buiucani | L 0-3 | 34.2 | 954 | 1039 | 20.71% | 27.14% | 52.15% | -0.78 | -21.3 | 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sheriff Tiraspol | L 0-1 | 37.6 | 1158 | 1341 | 19.20% | 26.75% | 54.04% | -0.89 | -7.3 | 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | @ Milsami Orhei | W 1-0 | 37.6 | 1341 | 1158 | 54.04% | 26.75% | 19.20% | +0.89 | +7.3 | 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | Petrocub Hincesti | L 0-1 | 35.7 | 1095 | 1335 | 14.88% | 25.16% | 59.96% | -1.24 | -5.7 | 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | W 1-0 | 35.7 | 1335 | 1095 | 59.96% | 25.16% | 14.88% | +1.24 | +5.8 | 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | Dacia Buiucani | L 0-1 | 51.1 | 1348 | 1061 | 71.02% | 20.52% | 8.46% | +2.04 | -20.7 | 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Zimbru | W 1-0 | 51.1 | 1061 | 1348 | 8.46% | 20.52% | 71.02% | -2.04 | +20.7 | 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | Milsami Orhei | L 1-2 | 46.4 | 1076 | 1151 | 30.94% | 28.45% | 40.62% | -0.22 | -10.1 | 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | @ Real Sireti | W 2-1 | 46.4 | 1151 | 1076 | 40.62% | 28.45% | 30.94% | +0.22 | +10.1 | 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | Balti | W 7-0 | 25.5 | 1348 | 932 | 79.70% | 15.50% | 4.80% | +2.83 | +9.8 | 28 |
| 2026-09-20 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | L 0-7 | 25.5 | 932 | 1348 | 4.80% | 15.50% | 79.70% | -2.83 | -9.8 | 5 |
Upcoming Games
Remaining games on the team's schedule
| Date | Opponent | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Excitement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Real Sireti | 922 | 1066 | 22.95% | 27.60% | 49.45% | -0.64 | 38.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Balti | 1066 | 922 | 49.45% | 27.60% | 22.95% | +0.64 | 38.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1081 | 1358 | 12.63% | 23.94% | 63.43% | -1.47 | 38.9 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1358 | 1081 | 63.43% | 23.94% | 12.63% | +1.47 | 38.9 |
| 2026-10-11 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1161 | 1090 | 50.50% | 27.43% | 22.07% | +0.69 | 47.2 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1090 | 1161 | 22.07% | 27.43% | 50.50% | -0.69 | 47.2 |
| 2026-10-11 | Zimbru | 1341 | 1328 | 43.16% | 28.29% | 28.54% | +0.33 | 60.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1328 | 1341 | 28.54% | 28.29% | 43.16% | -0.33 | 60.5 |
| 2026-10-17 | Real Sireti | 1358 | 1066 | 71.37% | 20.34% | 8.29% | +2.06 | 32.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 1066 | 1358 | 8.29% | 20.34% | 71.37% | -2.06 | 32.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Dacia Buiucani | 1341 | 1081 | 68.82% | 21.61% | 9.57% | +1.86 | 35.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1081 | 1341 | 9.57% | 21.61% | 68.82% | -1.86 | 35.1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 922 | 1090 | 20.62% | 27.12% | 52.26% | -0.79 | 39.1 |
| 2026-10-18 | @ Balti | 1090 | 922 | 52.26% | 27.12% | 20.62% | +0.79 | 39.1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Zimbru | 1161 | 1328 | 20.66% | 27.13% | 52.21% | -0.78 | 45.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1328 | 1161 | 52.21% | 27.13% | 20.66% | +0.78 | 45.0 |
| 2026-10-24 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1090 | 1358 | 13.10% | 24.23% | 62.68% | -1.42 | 39.9 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1358 | 1090 | 62.68% | 24.23% | 13.10% | +1.42 | 39.9 |
| 2026-10-24 | Milsami Orhei | 1341 | 1161 | 61.93% | 24.50% | 13.57% | +1.37 | 40.6 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1161 | 1341 | 13.57% | 24.50% | 61.93% | -1.37 | 40.6 |
| 2026-10-25 | Balti | 1328 | 922 | 79.04% | 15.92% | 5.04% | +2.76 | 23.1 |
| 2026-10-25 | @ Zimbru | 922 | 1328 | 5.04% | 15.92% | 79.04% | -2.76 | 23.1 |
| 2026-10-25 | Real Sireti | 1081 | 1066 | 43.47% | 28.27% | 28.26% | +0.35 | 48.6 |
| 2026-10-25 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1066 | 1081 | 28.26% | 28.27% | 43.47% | -0.35 | 48.6 |
| 2026-10-31 | Petrocub Hincesti | 922 | 1341 | 6.80% | 18.54% | 74.66% | -2.35 | 23.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Balti | 1341 | 922 | 74.66% | 18.54% | 6.80% | +2.35 | 23.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | Zimbru | 1358 | 1328 | 45.42% | 28.10% | 26.48% | +0.44 | 61.7 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 1328 | 1358 | 26.48% | 28.10% | 45.42% | -0.44 | 61.7 |
| 2026-11-01 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1066 | 1090 | 38.06% | 28.53% | 33.41% | +0.10 | 48.9 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ Real Sireti | 1090 | 1066 | 33.41% | 28.53% | 38.06% | -0.10 | 48.9 |
| 2026-11-01 | Dacia Buiucani | 1161 | 1081 | 51.47% | 27.26% | 21.26% | +0.74 | 46.1 |
| 2026-11-01 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1081 | 1161 | 21.26% | 27.26% | 51.47% | -0.74 | 46.1 |
| 2026-11-07 | Real Sireti | 1328 | 1066 | 69.01% | 21.52% | 9.47% | +1.88 | 32.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Zimbru | 1066 | 1328 | 9.47% | 21.52% | 69.01% | -1.88 | 32.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1341 | 1358 | 39.00% | 28.51% | 32.50% | +0.14 | 62.3 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1358 | 1341 | 32.50% | 28.51% | 39.00% | -0.14 | 62.3 |
| 2026-11-08 | Balti | 1161 | 922 | 67.09% | 22.42% | 10.49% | +1.73 | 29.1 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ Milsami Orhei | 922 | 1161 | 10.49% | 22.42% | 67.09% | -1.73 | 29.1 |
| 2026-11-08 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1081 | 1090 | 40.24% | 28.46% | 31.30% | +0.20 | 53.1 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1090 | 1081 | 31.30% | 28.46% | 40.24% | -0.20 | 53.1 |
| 2026-11-21 | Zimbru | 1090 | 1328 | 14.99% | 25.22% | 59.79% | -1.23 | 40.6 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1328 | 1090 | 59.79% | 25.22% | 14.99% | +1.23 | 40.6 |
| 2026-11-21 | Milsami Orhei | 1358 | 1161 | 63.51% | 23.91% | 12.58% | +1.47 | 42.5 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 1161 | 1358 | 12.58% | 23.91% | 63.51% | -1.47 | 42.5 |
| 2026-11-22 | Petrocub Hincesti | 1066 | 1341 | 12.72% | 24.00% | 63.28% | -1.46 | 32.0 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Real Sireti | 1341 | 1066 | 63.28% | 24.00% | 12.72% | +1.46 | 32.0 |
| 2026-11-22 | Dacia Buiucani | 922 | 1081 | 21.41% | 27.29% | 51.30% | -0.74 | 39.5 |
| 2026-11-22 | @ Balti | 1081 | 922 | 51.30% | 27.29% | 21.41% | +0.74 | 39.5 |
| 2026-11-28 | Real Sireti | 1161 | 1066 | 53.25% | 26.92% | 19.83% | +0.84 | 41.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1066 | 1161 | 19.83% | 26.92% | 53.25% | -0.84 | 41.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | Zimbru | 1081 | 1328 | 14.45% | 24.96% | 60.59% | -1.28 | 39.5 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1328 | 1081 | 60.59% | 24.96% | 14.45% | +1.28 | 39.5 |
| 2026-11-29 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 922 | 1358 | 6.30% | 17.86% | 75.84% | -2.45 | 25.9 |
| 2026-11-29 | @ Balti | 1358 | 922 | 75.84% | 17.86% | 6.30% | +2.45 | 25.9 |
| 2026-11-29 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1341 | 1090 | 68.15% | 21.93% | 9.92% | +1.81 | 36.2 |
| 2026-11-29 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1090 | 1341 | 9.92% | 21.93% | 68.15% | -1.81 | 36.2 |
| 2026-12-05 | Milsami Orhei | 1090 | 1161 | 31.41% | 28.47% | 40.12% | -0.19 | 48.3 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1161 | 1090 | 40.12% | 28.47% | 31.41% | +0.19 | 48.3 |
| 2026-12-05 | Balti | 1066 | 922 | 58.36% | 25.65% | 15.98% | +1.14 | 36.5 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Real Sireti | 922 | 1066 | 15.98% | 25.65% | 58.36% | -1.14 | 36.5 |
| 2026-12-05 | Dacia Buiucani | 1358 | 1081 | 70.18% | 20.95% | 8.87% | +1.97 | 36.8 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 1081 | 1358 | 8.87% | 20.95% | 70.18% | -1.97 | 36.8 |
| 2026-12-05 | Petrocub Hincesti | 1328 | 1341 | 39.55% | 28.49% | 31.96% | +0.17 | 60.8 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Zimbru | 1341 | 1328 | 31.96% | 28.49% | 39.55% | -0.17 | 60.8 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2026-09-19 | 8.46% | Dacia Buiucani | 1061 | 1 | @ Zimbru | 1348 | 0 |
| 2 | 2026-08-15 | 9.77% | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1026 | 2 | Petrocub Hincesti | 1361 | 1 |
| 3 | 2026-08-22 | 16.83% | @ Milsami Orhei | 1130 | 1 | Petrocub Hincesti | 1342 | 0 |
| 4 | 2026-07-12 | 18.94% | Dacia Buiucani | 1038 | 1 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1144 | 0 |
| 5 | 2026-07-11 | 20.95% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1012 | 2 | @ Real Sireti | 1095 | 1 |
| 6 | 2026-07-25 | 21.66% | Dacia Buiucani | 1013 | 4 | @ Balti | 1088 | 1 |
| 7 | 2026-07-05 | 23.21% | @ Dacia Buiucani | 996 | 3 | Real Sireti | 1137 | 0 |
| 8 | 2026-07-19 | 24.53% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1314 | 3 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 1362 | 2 |
| 9 | 2026-07-18 | 26.80% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1027 | 5 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1055 | 1 |
| 10 | 2026-08-09 | 35.34% | Petrocub Hincesti | 1350 | 2 | @ Zimbru | 1312 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-08-15 | 52.70 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 6 | 1053 | 43.36% | Balti | 0 | 1038 | 28.36% | 28.28% |
| 2 | 2026-07-18 | 42.46 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 5 | 1027 | 26.80% | @ Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1055 | 45.06% | 28.13% |
| 3 | 2026-07-05 | 41.88 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 3 | 996 | 23.21% | Real Sireti | 0 | 1137 | 49.14% | 27.64% |
| 4 | 2026-07-25 | 36.43 | Dacia Buiucani | 4 | 1013 | 21.66% | @ Balti | 1 | 1088 | 50.99% | 27.35% |
| 5 | 2026-06-27 | 24.23 | @ Balti | 3 | 1084 | 48.12% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1032 | 24.09% | 27.79% |
| 6 | 2026-07-04 | 23.72 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 5 | 1342 | 61.40% | Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1167 | 13.91% | 24.68% |
| 7 | 2026-09-13 | 21.34 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 3 | 1039 | 52.15% | Balti | 0 | 954 | 20.71% | 27.14% |
| 8 | 2026-09-19 | 20.74 | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1061 | 8.46% | @ Zimbru | 0 | 1348 | 71.02% | 20.52% |
| 9 | 2026-08-02 | 20.29 | Zimbru | 4 | 1292 | 60.26% | @ Dacia Buiucani | 0 | 1049 | 14.67% | 25.07% |
| 10 | 2026-08-15 | 19.03 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 2 | 1026 | 9.77% | Petrocub Hincesti | 1 | 1361 | 68.43% | 21.80% |
| 11 | 2026-06-28 | 17.82 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 3 | 1285 | 57.04% | Real Sireti | 0 | 1155 | 16.94% | 26.02% |
| 12 | 2026-08-22 | 17.40 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1 | 1130 | 16.83% | Petrocub Hincesti | 0 | 1342 | 57.19% | 25.98% |
| 13 | 2026-07-12 | 16.67 | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1038 | 18.94% | @ Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1144 | 54.38% | 26.68% |
| 14 | 2026-07-12 | 15.42 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 4 | 1299 | 41.38% | Zimbru | 2 | 1299 | 30.21% | 28.41% |
| 15 | 2026-07-11 | 15.08 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 2 | 1012 | 20.95% | @ Real Sireti | 1 | 1095 | 51.86% | 27.19% |
| 16 | 2026-08-02 | 14.86 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 5 | 1323 | 62.98% | @ Balti | 1 | 1052 | 12.91% | 24.11% |
| 17 | 2026-08-23 | 14.75 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 4 | 1338 | 66.55% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1106 | 10.79% | 22.66% |
| 18 | 2026-07-05 | 14.63 | @ Zimbru | 3 | 1284 | 61.56% | Balti | 0 | 1108 | 13.81% | 24.63% |
| 19 | 2026-08-22 | 14.00 | Zimbru | 4 | 1309 | 67.46% | @ Balti | 0 | 986 | 10.29% | 22.25% |
| 20 | 2026-07-19 | 13.32 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 3 | 1314 | 24.53% | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1362 | 47.61% | 27.85% |
| 21 | 2026-07-26 | 12.33 | Zimbru | 2 | 1280 | 56.93% | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1070 | 17.02% | 26.05% |
| 22 | 2026-09-06 | 12.03 | Milsami Orhei | 3 | 1146 | 53.77% | @ Balti | 1 | 966 | 19.42% | 26.81% |
| 23 | 2026-08-09 | 11.34 | Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1350 | 35.34% | @ Zimbru | 1 | 1312 | 36.11% | 28.56% |
| 24 | 2026-08-29 | 10.90 | @ Zimbru | 2 | 1323 | 37.27% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 1353 | 34.18% | 28.55% |
| 25 | 2026-09-06 | 10.64 | Zimbru | 2 | 1334 | 60.37% | @ Real Sireti | 0 | 1090 | 14.60% | 25.03% |
Most & Least Exciting Games
The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-05 | 58.2 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 2 | 1342 | 42.83% | Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1331 | 28.85% | 28.32% |
| 2 | 2026-07-19 | 57.6 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 3 | 1314 | 24.53% | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1362 | 47.61% | 27.85% |
| 3 | 2026-08-01 | 56.8 | @ Milsami Orhei | 2 | 1140 | 48.18% | Real Sireti | 2 | 1088 | 24.04% | 27.78% |
| 4 | 2026-08-15 | 55.8 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 2 | 1026 | 9.77% | Petrocub Hincesti | 1 | 1361 | 68.43% | 21.80% |
| 5 | 2026-07-11 | 52.8 | @ Balti | 1 | 1094 | 12.90% | Petrocub Hincesti | 1 | 1365 | 62.99% | 24.11% |
| 6 | 2026-07-18 | 52.8 | @ Zimbru | 1 | 1283 | 64.05% | Real Sireti | 1 | 1080 | 12.25% | 23.70% |
| 7 | 2026-08-16 | 52.6 | @ Real Sireti | 1 | 1087 | 13.98% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 1341 | 61.30% | 24.72% |
| 8 | 2026-07-11 | 52.2 | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 2 | 1012 | 20.95% | @ Real Sireti | 1 | 1095 | 51.86% | 27.19% |
| 9 | 2026-08-08 | 51.4 | @ Real Sireti | 1 | 1089 | 48.17% | Balti | 1 | 1037 | 24.05% | 27.78% |
| 10 | 2026-08-08 | 51.3 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1 | 1052 | 29.45% | Milsami Orhei | 1 | 1139 | 42.19% | 28.36% |
| 11 | 2026-09-19 | 51.1 | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1061 | 8.46% | @ Zimbru | 0 | 1348 | 71.02% | 20.52% |
| 12 | 2026-08-09 | 49.4 | Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1350 | 35.34% | @ Zimbru | 1 | 1312 | 36.11% | 28.56% |
| 13 | 2026-07-12 | 49.1 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 4 | 1299 | 41.38% | Zimbru | 2 | 1299 | 30.21% | 28.41% |
| 14 | 2026-08-29 | 48.9 | @ Zimbru | 2 | 1323 | 37.27% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 1353 | 34.18% | 28.55% |
| 15 | 2026-08-22 | 48.7 | @ Milsami Orhei | 1 | 1130 | 16.83% | Petrocub Hincesti | 0 | 1342 | 57.19% | 25.98% |
| 16 | 2026-07-04 | 48.6 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1008 | 11.65% | Sheriff Tiraspol | 0 | 1303 | 65.06% | 23.29% |
| 17 | 2026-07-26 | 48.6 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 0 | 1328 | 62.99% | Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1136 | 12.90% | 24.11% |
| 18 | 2026-07-26 | 48.4 | @ Real Sireti | 0 | 1084 | 13.32% | Petrocub Hincesti | 0 | 1349 | 62.32% | 24.36% |
| 19 | 2026-07-25 | 48.2 | Dacia Buiucani | 4 | 1013 | 21.66% | @ Balti | 1 | 1088 | 50.99% | 27.35% |
| 20 | 2026-07-12 | 47.8 | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1038 | 18.94% | @ Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1144 | 54.38% | 26.68% |
| 21 | 2026-06-27 | 47.4 | @ Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1166 | 25.48% | Zimbru | 0 | 1286 | 46.54% | 27.98% |
| 22 | 2026-08-23 | 47.1 | @ Real Sireti | 0 | 1091 | 47.38% | Dacia Buiucani | 0 | 1045 | 24.73% | 27.88% |
| 23 | 2026-08-30 | 47.1 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 0 | 1047 | 27.71% | Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1147 | 44.07% | 28.22% |
| 24 | 2026-08-29 | 47.0 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1091 | 41.65% | Real Sireti | 0 | 1089 | 29.96% | 28.39% |
| 25 | 2026-09-20 | 46.4 | Milsami Orhei | 2 | 1151 | 40.62% | @ Real Sireti | 1 | 1076 | 30.94% | 28.45% |
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-20 | 25.5 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 7 | 1348 | 79.70% | Balti | 0 | 932 | 4.80% | 15.50% |
| 2 | 2026-08-30 | 27.2 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 3 | 1325 | 75.70% | Balti | 0 | 972 | 6.36% | 17.94% |
| 3 | 2026-08-22 | 28.9 | Zimbru | 4 | 1309 | 67.46% | @ Balti | 0 | 986 | 10.29% | 22.25% |
| 4 | 2026-08-23 | 29.4 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 4 | 1338 | 66.55% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1106 | 10.79% | 22.66% |
| 5 | 2026-07-04 | 31.0 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 5 | 1342 | 61.40% | Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1167 | 13.91% | 24.68% |
| 6 | 2026-08-02 | 31.1 | Zimbru | 4 | 1292 | 60.26% | @ Dacia Buiucani | 0 | 1049 | 14.67% | 25.07% |
| 7 | 2026-07-05 | 31.6 | @ Zimbru | 3 | 1284 | 61.56% | Balti | 0 | 1108 | 13.81% | 24.63% |
| 8 | 2026-08-09 | 31.8 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 1338 | 72.65% | Dacia Buiucani | 0 | 1029 | 7.69% | 19.66% |
| 9 | 2026-06-28 | 33.0 | @ Sheriff Tiraspol | 3 | 1285 | 57.04% | Real Sireti | 0 | 1155 | 16.94% | 26.02% |
| 10 | 2026-09-06 | 33.5 | Zimbru | 2 | 1334 | 60.37% | @ Real Sireti | 0 | 1090 | 14.60% | 25.03% |
| 11 | 2026-09-13 | 34.2 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 3 | 1039 | 52.15% | Balti | 0 | 954 | 20.71% | 27.14% |
| 12 | 2026-08-02 | 34.3 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 5 | 1323 | 62.98% | @ Balti | 1 | 1052 | 12.91% | 24.11% |
| 13 | 2026-07-26 | 34.4 | Zimbru | 2 | 1280 | 56.93% | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1070 | 17.02% | 26.05% |
| 14 | 2026-06-27 | 35.4 | @ Balti | 3 | 1084 | 48.12% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1032 | 24.09% | 27.79% |
| 15 | 2026-08-02 | 35.6 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 3 | 1345 | 70.98% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1 | 1058 | 8.48% | 20.54% |
| 16 | 2026-09-19 | 35.7 | Petrocub Hincesti | 1 | 1335 | 59.96% | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 0 | 1095 | 14.88% | 25.16% |
| 17 | 2026-08-15 | 36.1 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 6 | 1053 | 43.36% | Balti | 0 | 1038 | 28.36% | 28.28% |
| 18 | 2026-06-28 | 36.2 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1340 | 74.87% | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 999 | 6.71% | 18.42% |
| 19 | 2026-09-13 | 37.6 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 1341 | 54.04% | @ Milsami Orhei | 0 | 1158 | 19.20% | 26.75% |
| 20 | 2026-09-12 | 38.3 | @ Petrocub Hincesti | 2 | 1332 | 68.23% | Real Sireti | 1 | 1079 | 9.88% | 21.89% |
| 21 | 2026-09-12 | 38.5 | @ Zimbru | 2 | 1345 | 67.70% | Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 1 | 1099 | 10.16% | 22.14% |
| 22 | 2026-09-06 | 40.6 | Milsami Orhei | 3 | 1146 | 53.77% | @ Balti | 1 | 966 | 19.42% | 26.81% |
| 23 | 2026-08-16 | 42.8 | @ Zimbru | 4 | 1301 | 60.30% | Milsami Orhei | 2 | 1138 | 14.65% | 25.05% |
| 24 | 2026-07-05 | 42.9 | @ Dacia Buiucani | 3 | 996 | 23.21% | Real Sireti | 0 | 1137 | 49.14% | 27.64% |
| 25 | 2026-09-05 | 44.4 | @ Politehnica UTM Chisinau | 2 | 1090 | 46.96% | Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 1048 | 25.11% | 27.93% |