1964 NFL Season
98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Cleveland Browns (1st)
4th Title
Last Title: 1955
Runner-Up
Baltimore Colts
3rd Appearance
Last Appearance: 1959
Biggest Overachiever
Baltimore Colts
3.10 wins above expected
12 wins · 8.90 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
New York Giants
3.44 wins below expected
2 wins · 6.44 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) Division | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 415 | 293 | +122 | 8.92 | +1.58 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 3 | 2 | .714 | 0.5 | 357 | 331 | +26 | 8.02 | +1.98 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 4.5 | 312 | 313 | -1 | 6.55 | -0.55 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 4.5 | 307 | 305 | +2 | 5.96 | +0.04 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 8 | 1 | .393 | 5 | 250 | 289 | -39 | 6.30 | -0.80 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 5.5 | 253 | 315 | -62 | 6.56 | -1.56 |
| 7 | New York Giants | 2 | 10 | 2 | .214 | 7.5 | 241 | 399 | -158 | 6.44 | -3.44 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts Division | 12 | 2 | 0 | .857 | — | 428 | 225 | +203 | 8.90 | +3.10 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 5 | 1 | .607 | 3.5 | 355 | 296 | +59 | 6.62 | +1.88 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 5 | 1 | .607 | 3.5 | 342 | 245 | +97 | 8.74 | -0.24 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 5 | 2 | .571 | 4 | 280 | 260 | +20 | 7.35 | +0.65 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 7 | 2 | .429 | 6 | 283 | 339 | -56 | 6.18 | -0.18 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 7 | 260 | 379 | -119 | 6.59 | -1.59 |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 8 | 236 | 330 | -94 | 4.86 | -0.86 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Cleveland Browns (1st)
27
Baltimore Colts
0
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | West | 1687 | 12 | 8.90 | +3.10 | 99.41% | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1644 | 8.5 | 8.74 | -0.24 | 56.85% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | 1614 | 10.5 | 8.92 | +1.58 | 88.52% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1571 | 8 | 7.35 | +0.65 | 82.88% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | West | 1560 | 8.5 | 6.62 | +1.88 | 91.15% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | 1557 | 10 | 8.02 | +1.98 | 95.50% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 13 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1480 | 6 | 5.96 | +0.04 | 74.21% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1442 | 6 | 6.55 | -0.55 | 62.36% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | 1436 | 5.5 | 6.30 | -0.80 | 45.78% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1431 | 5 | 6.59 | -1.59 | 39.64% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1431 | 5 | 6.56 | -1.56 | 40.44% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | 1400 | 6 | 6.18 | -0.18 | 69.87% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1400 | 4 | 4.86 | -0.86 | 56.43% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1347 | 3 | 6.44 | -3.44 | 9.07% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within East
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
1-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | — |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts | 12 | 8.90 | +3.10 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 8.02 | +1.98 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 6.62 | +1.88 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 10.5 | 8.92 | +1.58 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 8 | 7.35 | +0.65 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 3 | 6.44 | -3.44 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 6.59 | -1.59 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 6.56 | -1.56 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 4.86 | -0.86 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 5.5 | 6.30 | -0.80 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts | 11 | Sep 20 – Nov 29 | 1 in 590 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | Nov 22 – Dec 13 | 1 in 19 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | Oct 25 – Nov 8 | 1 in 17 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 3 | Nov 15 – Nov 26 | 1 in 15 |
| 5 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 5 | Oct 18 – Nov 15 | 1 in 12 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | Oct 18 – Nov 15 | 1 in 38 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | Nov 15 – Dec 6 | 1 in 21 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | Nov 15 – Dec 6 | 1 in 21 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 4 | Oct 18 – Nov 8 | 1 in 17 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | Oct 11 – Nov 8 | 1 in 13 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 45.36% | 22.97% | 13.87% | 8.26% | 5.17% | 2.86% | 1.51% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.48% | 24.00% | 17.93% | 13.40% | 9.56% | 6.63% | 4.00% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.06% | 12.01% | 14.77% | 16.95% | 17.12% | 15.73% | 15.36% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.50% | 12.34% | 14.44% | 16.38% | 16.89% | 16.85% | 15.60% |
| New York Giants | 5.66% | 11.34% | 13.96% | 16.19% | 17.29% | 17.87% | 17.69% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.41% | 10.07% | 13.57% | 15.21% | 16.85% | 19.27% | 19.62% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.53% | 7.27% | 11.46% | 13.61% | 17.12% | 20.79% | 26.22% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 37.34% | 26.65% | 16.29% | 10.37% | 5.84% | 2.64% | 0.87% |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.83% | 25.95% | 17.17% | 11.14% | 6.74% | 3.51% | 1.66% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.60% | 16.75% | 18.93% | 18.31% | 15.72% | 11.91% | 6.78% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.19% | 11.25% | 15.52% | 17.09% | 19.08% | 18.23% | 12.64% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.40% | 10.26% | 15.46% | 17.71% | 18.77% | 18.55% | 12.85% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.82% | 7.26% | 11.77% | 17.04% | 19.95% | 22.08% | 18.08% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.82% | 1.88% | 4.86% | 8.34% | 13.90% | 23.08% | 47.12% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 23.55% | 19.05% | 13.29% | 10.91% | 7.87% | 6.82% | 5.24% | 3.85% | 3.09% | 2.37% | 1.79% | 0.96% | 0.84% | 0.37% |
| Baltimore Colts | 21.99% | 18.07% | 14.79% | 11.14% | 8.93% | 6.73% | 5.27% | 4.38% | 3.38% | 2.07% | 1.42% | 1.05% | 0.54% | 0.24% |
| Green Bay Packers | 20.48% | 15.84% | 14.52% | 10.88% | 9.35% | 7.14% | 5.98% | 4.92% | 3.34% | 2.63% | 1.97% | 1.49% | 0.88% | 0.58% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11.52% | 11.62% | 11.84% | 11.78% | 9.30% | 9.25% | 7.27% | 6.96% | 5.62% | 4.44% | 3.70% | 3.01% | 2.13% | 1.56% |
| Detroit Lions | 5.96% | 7.22% | 8.54% | 8.90% | 9.39% | 8.92% | 9.21% | 8.43% | 7.72% | 7.19% | 6.35% | 5.30% | 3.84% | 3.03% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.52% | 4.26% | 5.77% | 5.97% | 7.21% | 7.81% | 8.72% | 8.44% | 9.27% | 8.81% | 8.48% | 8.90% | 7.76% | 6.08% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.49% | 4.44% | 5.38% | 6.40% | 7.03% | 7.84% | 7.91% | 8.67% | 9.40% | 8.78% | 8.28% | 8.43% | 7.92% | 7.03% |
| Chicago Bears | 2.53% | 4.14% | 5.41% | 5.76% | 7.58% | 7.90% | 8.38% | 8.57% | 8.29% | 9.72% | 8.76% | 9.02% | 6.90% | 7.04% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.35% | 4.21% | 4.77% | 6.87% | 7.02% | 7.65% | 7.76% | 8.85% | 8.64% | 9.39% | 8.78% | 8.69% | 7.78% | 7.24% |
| New York Giants | 1.85% | 3.24% | 4.58% | 6.06% | 6.84% | 7.63% | 7.77% | 8.76% | 8.97% | 9.13% | 9.04% | 9.44% | 9.28% | 7.41% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.73% | 3.06% | 4.35% | 5.37% | 6.21% | 7.46% | 7.50% | 7.70% | 8.81% | 9.16% | 10.11% | 9.75% | 10.08% | 8.71% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1.65% | 2.25% | 3.28% | 4.40% | 6.22% | 6.47% | 8.23% | 8.15% | 8.98% | 9.50% | 10.79% | 10.35% | 9.84% | 9.89% |
| Washington Redskins | 1.17% | 2.05% | 2.50% | 4.40% | 5.06% | 5.76% | 6.99% | 7.66% | 8.39% | 9.37% | 10.66% | 11.20% | 13.26% | 11.53% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.21% | 0.55% | 0.98% | 1.16% | 1.99% | 2.62% | 3.77% | 4.66% | 6.10% | 7.44% | 9.87% | 12.41% | 18.95% | 29.29% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 45.36% | 54.64% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.48% | 75.52% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.06% | 91.94% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.50% | 92.50% |
| New York Giants | 5.66% | 94.34% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.41% | 94.59% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.53% | 96.47% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 37.34% | 62.66% |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.83% | 66.17% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.60% | 88.40% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.40% | 93.60% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.19% | 93.81% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.82% | 96.18% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.82% | 99.18% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 37.34% | 25.63% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 45.36% | 22.05% |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.83% | 21.85% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.48% | 10.02% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.60% | 6.24% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.19% | 3.14% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.40% | 2.39% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.06% | 2.02% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.50% | 1.93% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.41% | 1.42% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.82% | 1.22% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.53% | 1.07% |
| New York Giants | 5.66% | 0.76% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.82% | 0.26% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 10.93% | 1.52% | 2.16% | 2.33% | 2.51% | 5.30% | 0.88% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.93% | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.16% | 0.28% | 0.52% | 0.08% | |||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 7.51% | 2.11% | 2.74% | 6.19% | 1.40% | 1.80% | 0.30% | |||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.34% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |||||||
| Detroit Lions | 2.23% | 0.48% | 0.34% | 0.57% | 0.75% | 1.58% | 0.29% | |||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 7.56% | 1.38% | 1.81% | 2.04% | 2.12% | 5.88% | 1.06% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.35% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.02% | |||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.20% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.33% | 0.24% | 0.81% | 0.12% | |||||||
| New York Giants | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.22% | 0.10% | 0.04% | ||||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.71% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.01% | |||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.46% | 0.25% | 0.30% | 0.65% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.01% | |||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.40% | 1.23% | 1.49% | 3.29% | 0.71% | 0.76% | 0.14% | |||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 61.82% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 38.18% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Cleveland Browns (1st) |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 61.82% | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 38.18% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Baltimore Colts
61.82% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
61.82%
Cleveland Browns (1st)
38.18% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Baltimore Colts
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
38.18%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964-09-13 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 24-34 | 1515.00 | 1465.27 | 51.83% | 39.75% | -25.21 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 21-20 | 1489.79 | 1593.19 | 30.83% | 60.81% | +9.29 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | Chicago Bears | W 52-0 | 1499.08 | 1561.30 | 38.03% | 53.56% | +59.30 | 2-1 |
| 1964-10-04 | Los Angeles Rams | W 35-20 | 1558.38 | 1501.42 | 54.77% | 36.82% | +22.50 | 3-1 |
| 1964-10-12 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 47-27 | 1580.88 | 1559.07 | 47.90% | 43.68% | +30.43 | 4-1 |
| 1964-10-18 | Green Bay Packers | W 24-21 | 1611.31 | 1600.64 | 48.33% | 43.24% | +11.68 | 5-1 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ Detroit Lions | W 34-0 | 1622.99 | 1587.47 | 49.84% | 41.73% | +38.04 | 6-1 |
| 1964-11-01 | San Francisco 49ers | W 37-7 | 1661.03 | 1393.50 | 77.17% | 14.79% | +13.29 | 7-1 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ Chicago Bears | W 40-24 | 1674.32 | 1438.10 | 73.46% | 18.38% | +11.99 | 8-1 |
| 1964-11-15 | Minnesota Vikings | W 17-14 | 1686.31 | 1491.96 | 70.90% | 20.89% | +5.88 | 9-1 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 24-7 | 1692.19 | 1478.62 | 71.38% | 20.41% | +13.68 | 10-1 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 14-3 | 1705.87 | 1387.41 | 79.73% | 12.34% | +6.73 | 11-1 |
| 1964-12-06 | Detroit Lions | L 14-31 | 1712.60 | 1507.38 | 71.93% | 19.88% | -45.26 | 11-2 |
| 1964-12-13 | Washington Redskins | W 45-17 | 1667.34 | 1499.91 | 68.17% | 23.56% | +20.15 | 12-2 |
| 1964-09-13 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 12-23 | 1569.35 | 1570.16 | 44.65% | 46.92% | -23.03 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 34-28 | 1546.32 | 1490.48 | 52.68% | 38.90% | +14.98 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 0-52 | 1561.30 | 1499.08 | 53.56% | 38.03% | -59.30 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 21-31 | 1502.00 | 1429.58 | 54.95% | 36.65% | -26.64 | 1-3 |
| 1964-10-11 | Los Angeles Rams | W 38-17 | 1475.36 | 1478.92 | 46.29% | 45.28% | +32.23 | 2-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | Detroit Lions | L 0-10 | 1507.59 | 1568.45 | 38.22% | 53.37% | -19.02 | 2-4 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-27 | 1488.57 | 1405.48 | 56.37% | 35.23% | -22.85 | 2-5 |
| 1964-11-01 | Dallas Cowboys | L 10-24 | 1465.72 | 1459.30 | 47.72% | 43.85% | -27.62 | 2-6 |
| 1964-11-08 | Baltimore Colts | L 24-40 | 1438.10 | 1674.32 | 18.38% | 73.46% | -11.99 | 2-7 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 34-24 | 1426.11 | 1506.64 | 33.71% | 57.90% | +28.02 | 3-7 |
| 1964-11-22 | San Francisco 49ers | W 23-21 | 1454.13 | 1395.58 | 54.99% | 36.61% | +8.17 | 4-7 |
| 1964-11-26 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-24 | 1462.30 | 1522.03 | 36.45% | 55.15% | +14.64 | 5-7 |
| 1964-12-05 | Green Bay Packers | L 3-17 | 1476.94 | 1630.48 | 26.59% | 65.09% | -15.99 | 5-8 |
| 1964-12-13 | Minnesota Vikings | L 14-41 | 1460.95 | 1530.03 | 37.10% | 54.49% | -30.40 | 5-9 |
| 1964-09-13 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-13 | 1520.31 | 1446.09 | 55.19% | 36.41% | +21.51 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-20 | St. Louis Cardinals | T 33-33 | 1541.82 | 1530.61 | 48.41% | 43.17% | -0.18 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-27 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-20 | 1541.64 | 1479.53 | 53.54% | 38.05% | +16.94 | 2-0 |
| 1964-10-04 | Dallas Cowboys | W 27-6 | 1558.58 | 1449.54 | 61.50% | 30.14% | +22.06 | 3-0 |
| 1964-10-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-23 | 1580.64 | 1483.30 | 60.05% | 31.58% | -36.71 | 3-1 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 20-16 | 1543.93 | 1427.81 | 60.63% | 31.01% | +9.89 | 4-1 |
| 1964-10-25 | New York Giants | W 42-20 | 1553.82 | 1449.03 | 60.98% | 30.66% | +22.95 | 5-1 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-17 | 1576.77 | 1446.68 | 62.34% | 29.31% | +16.91 | 6-1 |
| 1964-11-08 | Washington Redskins | W 34-24 | 1593.68 | 1457.91 | 64.68% | 27.00% | +13.72 | 7-1 |
| 1964-11-15 | Detroit Lions | W 37-21 | 1607.40 | 1545.30 | 55.46% | 36.13% | +22.83 | 8-1 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-28 | 1630.23 | 1587.61 | 50.84% | 40.74% | -20.71 | 8-2 |
| 1964-11-29 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-24 | 1609.52 | 1439.27 | 68.47% | 23.27% | +14.08 | 9-2 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 19-28 | 1623.60 | 1522.92 | 58.67% | 32.95% | -26.92 | 9-3 |
| 1964-12-12 | @ New York Giants | W 52-20 | 1596.68 | 1364.42 | 73.11% | 18.73% | +17.26 | 10-3 |
| 1964-09-12 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 6-16 | 1469.41 | 1510.32 | 40.98% | 50.60% | -20.28 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | Washington Redskins | W 24-18 | 1449.13 | 1424.58 | 50.29% | 41.28% | +15.82 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 17-23 | 1464.95 | 1497.79 | 40.12% | 51.46% | -15.41 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 6-27 | 1449.54 | 1558.58 | 30.14% | 61.50% | -22.07 | 1-3 |
| 1964-10-11 | New York Giants | T 13-13 | 1427.47 | 1467.62 | 41.08% | 50.49% | +0.34 | 1-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 16-20 | 1427.81 | 1543.93 | 31.01% | 60.63% | -9.89 | 1-4 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 31-13 | 1417.92 | 1546.94 | 27.77% | 63.90% | +41.38 | 2-4 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Chicago Bears | W 24-10 | 1459.30 | 1465.72 | 43.85% | 47.72% | +27.62 | 3-4 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ New York Giants | W 31-21 | 1486.92 | 1461.40 | 48.43% | 43.15% | +21.28 | 4-4 |
| 1964-11-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-17 | 1508.20 | 1460.55 | 53.50% | 38.08% | -14.23 | 4-5 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Washington Redskins | L 16-28 | 1493.97 | 1480.91 | 46.64% | 44.93% | -25.04 | 4-6 |
| 1964-11-29 | Green Bay Packers | L 21-45 | 1468.93 | 1608.32 | 28.21% | 63.45% | -22.16 | 4-7 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-24 | 1446.77 | 1425.19 | 47.86% | 43.71% | -23.40 | 4-8 |
| 1964-12-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 17-14 | 1423.37 | 1444.01 | 43.84% | 47.73% | +12.79 | 5-8 |
| 1964-09-13 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 26-17 | 1523.23 | 1447.13 | 55.44% | 36.16% | +17.13 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-19 | @ Los Angeles Rams | T 17-17 | 1540.36 | 1480.33 | 53.26% | 38.33% | -0.53 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-28 | Green Bay Packers | L 10-14 | 1539.83 | 1583.90 | 40.54% | 51.04% | -12.71 | 1-1 |
| 1964-10-04 | New York Giants | W 26-3 | 1527.12 | 1498.17 | 50.91% | 40.67% | +30.55 | 2-1 |
| 1964-10-11 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 24-20 | 1557.67 | 1464.93 | 57.64% | 33.97% | +10.78 | 3-1 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ Chicago Bears | W 10-0 | 1568.45 | 1507.59 | 53.37% | 38.22% | +19.02 | 4-1 |
| 1964-10-25 | Baltimore Colts | L 0-34 | 1587.47 | 1622.99 | 41.73% | 49.84% | -38.05 | 4-2 |
| 1964-11-01 | Los Angeles Rams | W 37-17 | 1549.42 | 1512.56 | 52.02% | 39.57% | +27.78 | 5-2 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-30 | 1577.20 | 1592.36 | 42.61% | 48.97% | -31.90 | 5-3 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-37 | 1545.30 | 1607.40 | 36.13% | 55.46% | -22.83 | 5-4 |
| 1964-11-22 | Minnesota Vikings | T 23-23 | 1522.47 | 1486.09 | 51.95% | 39.63% | -0.44 | 5-4 |
| 1964-11-26 | Chicago Bears | L 24-27 | 1522.03 | 1462.30 | 55.15% | 36.45% | -14.65 | 5-5 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 31-14 | 1507.38 | 1712.60 | 19.88% | 71.93% | +45.26 | 6-5 |
| 1964-12-13 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-7 | 1552.64 | 1417.65 | 64.59% | 27.09% | +17.94 | 7-5 |
| 1964-09-13 | Chicago Bears | W 23-12 | 1570.16 | 1569.35 | 46.92% | 44.65% | +23.03 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-20 | Baltimore Colts | L 20-21 | 1593.19 | 1489.79 | 60.81% | 30.83% | -9.29 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-28 | @ Detroit Lions | W 14-10 | 1583.90 | 1539.83 | 51.04% | 40.54% | +12.70 | 2-1 |
| 1964-10-04 | Minnesota Vikings | L 23-24 | 1596.60 | 1454.95 | 65.35% | 26.34% | -9.97 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-11 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-14 | 1586.63 | 1456.22 | 64.06% | 27.61% | +14.01 | 3-2 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 21-24 | 1600.64 | 1611.31 | 43.24% | 48.33% | -11.68 | 3-3 |
| 1964-10-25 | Los Angeles Rams | L 17-27 | 1588.96 | 1483.03 | 61.12% | 30.52% | -29.53 | 3-4 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 42-13 | 1559.43 | 1503.62 | 52.68% | 38.91% | +32.93 | 4-4 |
| 1964-11-08 | Detroit Lions | W 30-7 | 1592.36 | 1577.20 | 48.97% | 42.61% | +31.90 | 5-4 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-24 | 1624.26 | 1358.94 | 75.90% | 16.01% | -36.65 | 5-5 |
| 1964-11-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 28-21 | 1587.61 | 1630.23 | 40.74% | 50.84% | +20.71 | 6-5 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 45-21 | 1608.32 | 1468.93 | 63.45% | 28.21% | +22.16 | 7-5 |
| 1964-12-05 | @ Chicago Bears | W 17-3 | 1630.48 | 1476.94 | 65.09% | 26.59% | +16.00 | 8-5 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ Los Angeles Rams | T 24-24 | 1646.48 | 1398.10 | 74.51% | 17.36% | -2.13 | 8-5 |
| 1964-09-13 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 26-14 | 1450.75 | 1514.73 | 35.88% | 55.72% | +29.58 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-19 | Detroit Lions | T 17-17 | 1480.33 | 1540.36 | 38.33% | 53.26% | +0.54 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-27 | Minnesota Vikings | W 22-13 | 1480.87 | 1475.50 | 47.57% | 44.00% | +20.55 | 2-0 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 20-35 | 1501.42 | 1558.38 | 36.82% | 54.77% | -22.50 | 2-1 |
| 1964-10-11 | @ Chicago Bears | L 17-38 | 1478.92 | 1475.36 | 45.28% | 46.29% | -32.23 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-18 | San Francisco 49ers | W 42-14 | 1446.69 | 1442.21 | 47.45% | 44.13% | +36.34 | 3-2 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 27-17 | 1483.03 | 1588.96 | 30.52% | 61.12% | +29.53 | 4-2 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Detroit Lions | L 17-37 | 1512.56 | 1549.42 | 39.57% | 52.02% | -27.77 | 4-3 |
| 1964-11-08 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-10 | 1484.79 | 1482.41 | 47.15% | 44.43% | +21.85 | 5-3 |
| 1964-11-15 | Chicago Bears | L 24-34 | 1506.64 | 1426.11 | 57.90% | 33.71% | -28.02 | 5-4 |
| 1964-11-22 | Baltimore Colts | L 7-24 | 1478.62 | 1692.19 | 20.41% | 71.38% | -13.68 | 5-5 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 13-34 | 1464.94 | 1486.53 | 41.70% | 49.88% | -29.88 | 5-6 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-28 | 1435.06 | 1380.68 | 52.48% | 39.11% | -36.96 | 5-7 |
| 1964-12-13 | Green Bay Packers | T 24-24 | 1398.10 | 1646.48 | 17.36% | 74.51% | +2.14 | 5-7 |
| 1964-09-13 | Baltimore Colts | W 34-24 | 1465.27 | 1515.00 | 39.75% | 51.83% | +25.21 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-20 | Chicago Bears | L 28-34 | 1490.48 | 1546.32 | 38.90% | 52.68% | -14.98 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 13-22 | 1475.50 | 1480.87 | 44.00% | 47.57% | -20.55 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 24-23 | 1454.95 | 1596.60 | 26.34% | 65.35% | +9.98 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-11 | Detroit Lions | L 20-24 | 1464.93 | 1557.67 | 33.97% | 57.64% | -10.78 | 2-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-10 | 1454.15 | 1520.02 | 37.53% | 54.06% | +37.10 | 3-3 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 27-22 | 1491.25 | 1405.87 | 56.68% | 34.93% | +12.37 | 4-3 |
| 1964-11-01 | Green Bay Packers | L 13-42 | 1503.62 | 1559.43 | 38.91% | 52.68% | -32.93 | 4-4 |
| 1964-11-08 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-7 | 1470.69 | 1380.22 | 59.18% | 32.44% | +21.27 | 5-4 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 14-17 | 1491.96 | 1686.31 | 20.89% | 70.90% | -5.87 | 5-5 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Detroit Lions | T 23-23 | 1486.09 | 1522.47 | 39.63% | 51.95% | +0.44 | 5-5 |
| 1964-11-29 | Los Angeles Rams | W 34-13 | 1486.53 | 1464.94 | 49.88% | 41.70% | +29.88 | 6-5 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ New York Giants | W 30-21 | 1516.41 | 1378.04 | 63.33% | 28.33% | +13.62 | 7-5 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ Chicago Bears | W 41-14 | 1530.03 | 1460.95 | 54.49% | 37.10% | +30.40 | 8-5 |
| 1964-09-13 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-38 | 1552.03 | 1446.21 | 59.33% | 32.29% | -50.50 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 24-27 | 1501.53 | 1485.15 | 47.12% | 44.45% | -12.64 | 0-2 |
| 1964-09-25 | Washington Redskins | W 13-10 | 1488.89 | 1408.76 | 57.85% | 33.76% | +9.28 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Detroit Lions | L 3-26 | 1498.17 | 1527.12 | 40.67% | 50.91% | -30.55 | 1-3 |
| 1964-10-11 | @ Dallas Cowboys | T 13-13 | 1467.62 | 1427.47 | 50.49% | 41.08% | -0.34 | 1-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-23 | 1467.28 | 1457.51 | 48.20% | 43.37% | -18.25 | 1-4 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-42 | 1449.03 | 1553.82 | 30.66% | 60.98% | -22.95 | 1-5 |
| 1964-11-01 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 34-17 | 1426.08 | 1505.56 | 35.71% | 55.89% | +35.32 | 2-5 |
| 1964-11-08 | Dallas Cowboys | L 21-31 | 1461.40 | 1486.92 | 43.15% | 48.43% | -21.28 | 2-6 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | T 10-10 | 1440.12 | 1482.52 | 38.80% | 52.78% | +0.50 | 2-6 |
| 1964-11-22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 17-44 | 1440.62 | 1380.78 | 55.16% | 36.44% | -43.94 | 2-7 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ Washington Redskins | L 21-36 | 1396.68 | 1505.95 | 30.11% | 61.53% | -18.64 | 2-8 |
| 1964-12-06 | Minnesota Vikings | L 21-30 | 1378.04 | 1516.41 | 28.33% | 63.33% | -13.62 | 2-9 |
| 1964-12-12 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-52 | 1364.42 | 1596.68 | 18.73% | 73.11% | -17.27 | 2-10 |
| 1964-09-13 | New York Giants | W 38-7 | 1446.21 | 1552.03 | 32.29% | 59.33% | +50.50 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-20 | San Francisco 49ers | L 24-28 | 1496.71 | 1429.99 | 56.08% | 35.52% | -17.18 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-28 | 1479.53 | 1541.64 | 38.05% | 53.54% | -16.94 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 21-7 | 1462.59 | 1513.20 | 39.63% | 51.96% | +29.90 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-11 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-35 | 1492.49 | 1388.81 | 59.06% | 32.57% | -34.98 | 2-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ New York Giants | W 23-17 | 1457.51 | 1467.28 | 43.37% | 48.20% | +18.25 | 3-3 |
| 1964-10-25 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 34-10 | 1475.76 | 1482.92 | 43.74% | 47.83% | +36.23 | 4-3 |
| 1964-11-01 | Washington Redskins | L 10-21 | 1511.99 | 1428.33 | 58.31% | 33.31% | -29.58 | 4-4 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-20 | 1482.41 | 1484.79 | 44.43% | 47.15% | -21.86 | 4-5 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 17-14 | 1460.55 | 1508.20 | 38.08% | 53.50% | +14.23 | 5-5 |
| 1964-11-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 13-38 | 1474.78 | 1482.02 | 45.77% | 45.81% | -35.51 | 5-6 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-38 | 1439.27 | 1609.52 | 23.27% | 68.47% | -14.08 | 5-7 |
| 1964-12-06 | Dallas Cowboys | W 24-14 | 1425.19 | 1446.77 | 43.71% | 47.86% | +23.40 | 6-7 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 34-36 | 1448.59 | 1549.84 | 31.09% | 60.54% | -7.01 | 6-8 |
| 1964-09-13 | Los Angeles Rams | L 14-26 | 1514.73 | 1450.75 | 55.72% | 35.88% | -29.58 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | New York Giants | W 27-24 | 1485.15 | 1501.53 | 44.45% | 47.12% | +12.64 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | Dallas Cowboys | W 23-17 | 1497.79 | 1464.95 | 51.46% | 40.12% | +15.41 | 2-1 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-21 | 1513.20 | 1462.59 | 51.96% | 39.63% | -29.90 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-10 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 23-7 | 1483.30 | 1580.64 | 31.58% | 60.05% | +36.72 | 3-2 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 10-30 | 1520.02 | 1454.15 | 54.06% | 37.53% | -37.10 | 3-3 |
| 1964-10-25 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 10-34 | 1482.92 | 1475.76 | 47.83% | 43.74% | -36.24 | 3-4 |
| 1964-11-01 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-30 | 1446.68 | 1576.77 | 29.31% | 62.34% | -16.91 | 3-5 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 30-34 | 1429.77 | 1470.25 | 39.07% | 52.52% | -12.27 | 3-6 |
| 1964-11-15 | Washington Redskins | L 0-30 | 1417.50 | 1444.19 | 42.98% | 48.59% | -36.72 | 3-7 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ New York Giants | W 44-17 | 1380.78 | 1440.62 | 36.44% | 55.16% | +43.94 | 4-7 |
| 1964-11-29 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 20-21 | 1424.72 | 1517.53 | 33.96% | 57.65% | -5.39 | 4-8 |
| 1964-12-06 | @ Washington Redskins | W 14-7 | 1419.33 | 1524.58 | 30.60% | 61.04% | +24.68 | 5-8 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-17 | 1444.01 | 1423.37 | 47.73% | 43.84% | -12.79 | 5-9 |
| 1964-09-13 | Detroit Lions | L 17-26 | 1447.13 | 1523.23 | 36.16% | 55.44% | -17.14 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-24 | 1429.99 | 1496.71 | 35.52% | 56.08% | +17.19 | 1-1 |
| 1964-09-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 13-23 | 1447.18 | 1530.80 | 35.16% | 56.44% | -17.60 | 1-2 |
| 1964-10-04 | Chicago Bears | W 31-21 | 1429.58 | 1502.00 | 36.65% | 54.95% | +26.64 | 2-2 |
| 1964-10-11 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-24 | 1456.22 | 1586.63 | 27.61% | 64.06% | -14.01 | 2-3 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 14-42 | 1442.21 | 1446.69 | 44.13% | 47.45% | -36.34 | 2-4 |
| 1964-10-25 | Minnesota Vikings | L 22-27 | 1405.87 | 1491.25 | 34.93% | 56.68% | -12.37 | 2-5 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 7-37 | 1393.50 | 1661.03 | 14.79% | 77.17% | -13.28 | 2-6 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-24 | 1380.22 | 1470.69 | 32.44% | 59.18% | -21.28 | 2-7 |
| 1964-11-15 | Green Bay Packers | W 24-14 | 1358.94 | 1624.26 | 16.01% | 75.90% | +36.64 | 3-7 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-23 | 1395.58 | 1454.13 | 36.61% | 54.99% | -8.17 | 3-8 |
| 1964-11-29 | Baltimore Colts | L 3-14 | 1387.41 | 1705.87 | 12.34% | 79.73% | -6.73 | 3-9 |
| 1964-12-06 | Los Angeles Rams | W 28-7 | 1380.68 | 1435.06 | 39.11% | 52.48% | +36.97 | 4-9 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-24 | 1417.65 | 1552.64 | 27.09% | 64.59% | -17.94 | 4-10 |
| 1964-09-12 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 16-6 | 1510.32 | 1469.41 | 50.60% | 40.98% | +20.29 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | T 33-33 | 1530.61 | 1541.82 | 43.17% | 48.41% | +0.19 | 1-0 |
| 1964-09-27 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 23-13 | 1530.80 | 1447.18 | 56.44% | 35.16% | +17.60 | 2-0 |
| 1964-10-04 | @ Washington Redskins | W 23-17 | 1548.40 | 1399.48 | 64.56% | 27.11% | +10.67 | 3-0 |
| 1964-10-12 | Baltimore Colts | L 27-47 | 1559.07 | 1580.88 | 43.68% | 47.90% | -30.43 | 3-1 |
| 1964-10-18 | Washington Redskins | W 38-24 | 1528.64 | 1423.78 | 60.99% | 30.65% | +18.30 | 4-1 |
| 1964-10-25 | Dallas Cowboys | L 13-31 | 1546.94 | 1417.92 | 63.90% | 27.77% | -41.38 | 4-2 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ New York Giants | L 17-34 | 1505.56 | 1426.08 | 55.89% | 35.71% | -35.31 | 4-3 |
| 1964-11-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 34-30 | 1470.25 | 1429.77 | 52.52% | 39.07% | +12.27 | 5-3 |
| 1964-11-15 | New York Giants | T 10-10 | 1482.52 | 1440.12 | 52.78% | 38.80% | -0.50 | 5-3 |
| 1964-11-22 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-13 | 1482.02 | 1474.78 | 45.81% | 45.77% | +35.51 | 6-3 |
| 1964-11-29 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 21-20 | 1517.53 | 1424.72 | 57.65% | 33.96% | +5.39 | 7-3 |
| 1964-12-06 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 28-19 | 1522.92 | 1623.60 | 32.95% | 58.67% | +26.92 | 8-3 |
| 1964-12-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 36-34 | 1549.84 | 1448.59 | 60.54% | 31.09% | +7.01 | 9-3 |
| 1964-09-13 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 13-27 | 1446.09 | 1520.31 | 36.41% | 55.19% | -21.51 | 0-1 |
| 1964-09-20 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 18-24 | 1424.58 | 1449.13 | 41.28% | 50.29% | -15.82 | 0-2 |
| 1964-09-25 | @ New York Giants | L 10-13 | 1408.76 | 1488.89 | 33.76% | 57.85% | -9.28 | 0-3 |
| 1964-10-04 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-23 | 1399.48 | 1548.40 | 27.11% | 64.56% | -10.67 | 0-4 |
| 1964-10-11 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-20 | 1388.81 | 1492.49 | 32.57% | 59.06% | +34.97 | 1-4 |
| 1964-10-18 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 24-38 | 1423.78 | 1528.64 | 30.65% | 60.99% | -18.30 | 1-5 |
| 1964-10-25 | Chicago Bears | W 27-20 | 1405.48 | 1488.57 | 35.23% | 56.37% | +22.85 | 2-5 |
| 1964-11-01 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 21-10 | 1428.33 | 1511.99 | 33.31% | 58.31% | +29.58 | 3-5 |
| 1964-11-08 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-34 | 1457.91 | 1593.68 | 27.00% | 64.68% | -13.72 | 3-6 |
| 1964-11-15 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-0 | 1444.19 | 1417.50 | 48.59% | 42.98% | +36.72 | 4-6 |
| 1964-11-22 | Dallas Cowboys | W 28-16 | 1480.91 | 1493.97 | 44.93% | 46.64% | +25.04 | 5-6 |
| 1964-11-29 | New York Giants | W 36-21 | 1505.95 | 1396.68 | 61.53% | 30.11% | +18.63 | 6-6 |
| 1964-12-06 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-14 | 1524.58 | 1419.33 | 61.04% | 30.60% | -24.67 | 6-7 |
| 1964-12-13 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 17-45 | 1499.91 | 1667.34 | 23.56% | 68.17% | -20.16 | 6-8 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964-12-27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 0-27 | 1687.49 | 1613.94 | 59.45% | 40.55% | -43.89 | 0-1 |
| 1964-12-27 | Baltimore Colts | W 27-0 | 1613.94 | 1687.49 | 40.55% | 59.45% | +43.90 | 1-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1964-11-15 | 16.01% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1358.94 | 24 | Green Bay Packers | 1624.26 | 14 |
| 2 | 1964-12-06 | 19.88% | Detroit Lions | 1507.38 | 31 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1712.60 | 14 |
| 3 | 1964-10-04 | 26.34% | Minnesota Vikings | 1454.95 | 24 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1596.60 | 23 |
| 4 | 1964-10-25 | 27.77% | Dallas Cowboys | 1417.92 | 31 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1546.94 | 13 |
| 5 | 1964-10-25 | 30.52% | Los Angeles Rams | 1483.03 | 27 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1588.96 | 17 |
| 6 | 1964-12-06 | 30.60% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1419.33 | 14 | @ Washington Redskins | 1524.58 | 7 |
| 7 | 1964-09-20 | 30.83% | Baltimore Colts | 1489.79 | 21 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1593.19 | 20 |
| 8 | 1964-10-10 | 31.58% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1483.30 | 23 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1580.64 | 7 |
| 9 | 1964-09-13 | 32.29% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1446.21 | 38 | New York Giants | 1552.03 | 7 |
| 10 | 1964-10-11 | 32.57% | @ Washington Redskins | 1388.81 | 35 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1492.49 | 20 |
| 11 | 1964-12-06 | 32.95% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1522.92 | 28 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1623.60 | 19 |
| 12 | 1964-11-01 | 33.31% | Washington Redskins | 1428.33 | 21 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1511.99 | 10 |
| 13 | 1964-11-15 | 33.71% | Chicago Bears | 1426.11 | 34 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1506.64 | 24 |
| 14 | 1964-10-25 | 35.23% | @ Washington Redskins | 1405.48 | 27 | Chicago Bears | 1488.57 | 20 |
| 15 | 1964-09-20 | 35.52% | San Francisco 49ers | 1429.99 | 28 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1496.71 | 24 |
| 16 | 1964-11-01 | 35.71% | @ New York Giants | 1426.08 | 34 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1505.56 | 17 |
| 17 | 1964-09-13 | 35.88% | Los Angeles Rams | 1450.75 | 26 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1514.73 | 14 |
| 18 | 1964-11-22 | 36.44% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1380.78 | 44 | @ New York Giants | 1440.62 | 17 |
| 19 | 1964-11-26 | 36.45% | Chicago Bears | 1462.30 | 27 | @ Detroit Lions | 1522.03 | 24 |
| 20 | 1964-10-04 | 36.65% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1429.58 | 31 | Chicago Bears | 1502.00 | 21 |
| 21 | 1964-10-18 | 37.53% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1454.15 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1520.02 | 10 |
| 22 | 1964-09-27 | 38.03% | @ Baltimore Colts | 1499.08 | 52 | Chicago Bears | 1561.30 | 0 |
| 23 | 1964-11-15 | 38.08% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1460.55 | 17 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1508.20 | 14 |
| 24 | 1964-12-06 | 39.11% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1380.68 | 28 | Los Angeles Rams | 1435.06 | 7 |
| 25 | 1964-10-04 | 39.63% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1462.59 | 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1513.20 | 7 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1964-09-27 | 59.30 | @ Baltimore Colts | 52 | 1499.08 | 38.03% | Chicago Bears | 0 | 1561.30 | 53.56% |
| 2 | 1964-09-13 | 50.50 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 1446.21 | 32.29% | New York Giants | 7 | 1552.03 | 59.33% |
| 3 | 1964-12-06 | 45.26 | Detroit Lions | 31 | 1507.38 | 19.88% | @ Baltimore Colts | 14 | 1712.60 | 71.93% |
| 4 | 1964-11-22 | 43.94 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 44 | 1380.78 | 36.44% | @ New York Giants | 17 | 1440.62 | 55.16% |
| 5 | 1964-12-27 * | 43.90 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 27 | 1613.94 | 40.55% | Baltimore Colts | 0 | 1687.49 | 59.45% |
| 6 | 1964-10-25 | 41.38 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 | 1417.92 | 27.77% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 13 | 1546.94 | 63.90% |
| 7 | 1964-10-25 | 38.05 | Baltimore Colts | 34 | 1622.99 | 49.84% | @ Detroit Lions | 0 | 1587.47 | 41.73% |
| 8 | 1964-10-18 | 37.10 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 30 | 1454.15 | 37.53% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 1520.02 | 54.06% |
| 9 | 1964-12-06 | 36.97 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 28 | 1380.68 | 39.11% | Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 1435.06 | 52.48% |
| 10 | 1964-10-10 | 36.72 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 1483.30 | 31.58% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 7 | 1580.64 | 60.05% |
| 11 | 1964-11-15 | 36.72 | Washington Redskins | 30 | 1444.19 | 48.59% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 1417.50 | 42.98% |
| 12 | 1964-11-15 | 36.65 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 24 | 1358.94 | 16.01% | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 1624.26 | 75.90% |
| 13 | 1964-10-18 | 36.34 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 42 | 1446.69 | 47.45% | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 1442.21 | 44.13% |
| 14 | 1964-10-25 | 36.24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 34 | 1475.76 | 43.74% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 1482.92 | 47.83% |
| 15 | 1964-11-22 | 35.51 | St. Louis Cardinals | 38 | 1482.02 | 45.81% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 13 | 1474.78 | 45.77% |
| 16 | 1964-11-01 | 35.32 | @ New York Giants | 34 | 1426.08 | 35.71% | St. Louis Cardinals | 17 | 1505.56 | 55.89% |
| 17 | 1964-10-11 | 34.98 | @ Washington Redskins | 35 | 1388.81 | 32.57% | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 | 1492.49 | 59.06% |
| 18 | 1964-11-01 | 32.93 | Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1559.43 | 52.68% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 13 | 1503.62 | 38.91% |
| 19 | 1964-10-11 | 32.23 | @ Chicago Bears | 38 | 1475.36 | 46.29% | Los Angeles Rams | 17 | 1478.92 | 45.28% |
| 20 | 1964-11-08 | 31.90 | @ Green Bay Packers | 30 | 1592.36 | 48.97% | Detroit Lions | 7 | 1577.20 | 42.61% |
| 21 | 1964-10-04 | 30.55 | @ Detroit Lions | 26 | 1527.12 | 50.91% | New York Giants | 3 | 1498.17 | 40.67% |
| 22 | 1964-10-12 | 30.43 | Baltimore Colts | 47 | 1580.88 | 47.90% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 1559.07 | 43.68% |
| 23 | 1964-12-13 | 30.40 | Minnesota Vikings | 41 | 1530.03 | 54.49% | @ Chicago Bears | 14 | 1460.95 | 37.10% |
| 24 | 1964-10-04 | 29.90 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1462.59 | 39.63% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1513.20 | 51.96% |
| 25 | 1964-11-29 | 29.88 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 34 | 1486.53 | 49.88% | Los Angeles Rams | 13 | 1464.94 | 41.70% |