1965 NFL Season
98 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Green Bay Packers
9th Title
Last Title: 1962
Runner-Up
Cleveland Browns (1st)
9th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1964
Biggest Overachiever
Chicago Bears
2.28 wins above expected
9 wins · 6.72 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
St. Louis Cardinals
3.32 wins below expected
5 wins · 8.32 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) Division | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | — | 363 | 325 | +38 | 9.46 | +1.54 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 4 | 325 | 280 | +45 | 6.76 | +0.24 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 4 | 270 | 338 | -68 | 5.50 | +1.50 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 5 | 257 | 301 | -44 | 6.16 | -0.16 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 6 | 363 | 359 | +4 | 6.75 | -1.75 |
| 6 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 6 | 296 | 309 | -13 | 8.32 | -3.32 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 12 | 0 | .143 | 9 | 202 | 397 | -195 | 5.15 | -3.15 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 316 | 224 | +92 | 9.31 | +1.19 |
| 2 | Baltimore Colts Playoffs | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 389 | 284 | +105 | 9.17 | +1.33 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 9 | 5 | 0 | .643 | 1.5 | 409 | 275 | +134 | 6.72 | +2.28 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 6 | 1 | .536 | 3 | 421 | 402 | +19 | 6.69 | +0.81 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 3.5 | 383 | 403 | -20 | 6.64 | +0.36 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 6 | 7 | 1 | .464 | 4 | 257 | 295 | -38 | 6.95 | -0.45 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 6.5 | 269 | 328 | -59 | 4.42 | -0.42 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
Division Playoff
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | West | 1640 | 9 | 6.72 | +2.28 | 95.32% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 | |
| Baltimore Colts | West | 1638 | 10.5 | 9.17 | +1.33 | 80.48% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1632 | 10.5 | 9.31 | +1.19 | 79.07% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | 1575 | 11 | 9.46 | +1.54 | 90.82% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | West | 1521 | 7 | 6.64 | +0.36 | 72.83% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | 1514 | 7 | 6.76 | +0.24 | 68.96% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1507 | 7.5 | 6.69 | +0.81 | 71.00% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1470 | 6.5 | 6.95 | -0.45 | 44.64% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1459 | 6 | 6.16 | -0.16 | 62.56% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | 1456 | 4 | 4.42 | -0.42 | 57.66% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1450 | 5 | 6.75 | -1.75 | 28.53% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1440 | 7 | 5.50 | +1.50 | 89.05% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | 1413 | 5 | 8.32 | -3.32 | 6.90% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1286 | 2 | 5.15 | -3.15 | 7.74% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within East
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | — |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| Detroit Lions |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 9 | 6.72 | +2.28 |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 11 | 9.46 | +1.54 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 7 | 5.50 | +1.50 |
| 4 | Baltimore Colts | 10.5 | 9.17 | +1.33 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | 9.31 | +1.19 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 8.32 | -3.32 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 5.15 | -3.15 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 6.75 | -1.75 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 6.5 | 6.95 | -0.45 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 4.42 | -0.42 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 3 | Nov 28 – Dec 12 | 1 in 117 |
| 2 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | Oct 3 – Nov 21 | 1 in 27 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 5 | Nov 14 – Dec 12 | 1 in 24 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 3 | Oct 24 – Nov 7 | 1 in 19 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | Sep 19 – Oct 24 | 1 in 15 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | Nov 14 – Dec 19 | 1 in 177 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 8 | Oct 3 – Nov 21 | 1 in 29 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | Oct 4 – Oct 31 | 1 in 28 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | Nov 7 – Dec 19 | 1 in 28 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | Oct 17 – Nov 7 | 1 in 23 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 55.16% | 23.30% | 11.29% | 5.80% | 2.82% | 1.13% | 0.50% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.40% | 30.90% | 18.29% | 12.83% | 7.18% | 4.27% | 2.13% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6.96% | 13.68% | 18.73% | 19.01% | 17.02% | 14.10% | 10.50% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.66% | 13.82% | 18.83% | 19.59% | 16.58% | 14.01% | 10.51% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.48% | 8.76% | 14.82% | 17.23% | 19.93% | 19.38% | 16.40% |
| New York Giants | 1.86% | 5.55% | 9.83% | 13.90% | 18.80% | 22.82% | 27.24% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.48% | 3.99% | 8.21% | 11.64% | 17.67% | 24.29% | 32.72% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 40.61% | 27.68% | 15.12% | 8.90% | 4.90% | 2.13% | 0.66% |
| Baltimore Colts | 37.90% | 28.56% | 15.53% | 9.58% | 5.07% | 2.67% | 0.69% |
| Detroit Lions | 6.48% | 12.29% | 18.29% | 18.79% | 19.22% | 16.26% | 8.67% |
| Chicago Bears | 5.03% | 11.07% | 16.28% | 19.13% | 19.84% | 18.15% | 10.50% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.24% | 10.03% | 16.40% | 18.68% | 19.60% | 19.29% | 10.76% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4.54% | 9.42% | 15.51% | 18.85% | 20.49% | 19.86% | 11.33% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.20% | 0.95% | 2.87% | 6.07% | 10.88% | 21.64% | 57.39% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 26.91% | 24.01% | 13.93% | 11.26% | 7.11% | 5.45% | 3.79% | 2.73% | 1.74% | 1.32% | 0.87% | 0.49% | 0.24% | 0.15% |
| Green Bay Packers | 24.73% | 19.30% | 15.32% | 11.39% | 8.69% | 5.83% | 4.87% | 3.51% | 2.55% | 1.78% | 0.98% | 0.56% | 0.30% | 0.19% |
| Baltimore Colts | 22.82% | 17.99% | 15.51% | 12.22% | 8.51% | 6.60% | 5.32% | 3.61% | 2.88% | 1.80% | 1.28% | 0.89% | 0.41% | 0.16% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 9.98% | 12.82% | 14.03% | 14.81% | 10.28% | 9.35% | 7.41% | 6.14% | 4.74% | 3.79% | 2.45% | 2.14% | 1.34% | 0.72% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.83% | 4.28% | 6.74% | 7.02% | 9.62% | 8.94% | 9.98% | 9.00% | 9.86% | 8.69% | 7.54% | 6.84% | 5.22% | 3.44% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.32% | 3.92% | 5.48% | 7.46% | 8.30% | 10.01% | 8.87% | 9.64% | 8.87% | 8.68% | 7.84% | 7.51% | 6.49% | 4.61% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.09% | 3.93% | 5.49% | 7.39% | 8.42% | 9.78% | 8.72% | 10.02% | 8.90% | 9.25% | 7.89% | 7.40% | 6.47% | 4.25% |
| Chicago Bears | 2.16% | 3.24% | 6.23% | 6.17% | 8.09% | 8.52% | 10.42% | 9.36% | 10.01% | 8.83% | 9.25% | 7.68% | 5.89% | 4.15% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.19% | 3.50% | 5.34% | 5.97% | 8.57% | 8.48% | 9.79% | 9.43% | 9.56% | 9.00% | 9.03% | 8.01% | 6.58% | 4.55% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.20% | 3.01% | 5.11% | 5.50% | 7.92% | 8.37% | 9.44% | 9.99% | 10.43% | 9.31% | 9.32% | 8.21% | 6.68% | 4.51% |
| Washington Redskins | 1.08% | 1.98% | 3.23% | 4.90% | 6.19% | 7.27% | 8.14% | 9.12% | 8.99% | 11.08% | 10.35% | 10.89% | 9.06% | 7.72% |
| New York Giants | 0.36% | 1.06% | 1.74% | 3.02% | 4.19% | 5.19% | 5.66% | 7.82% | 8.20% | 10.22% | 11.32% | 13.03% | 14.19% | 14.00% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.29% | 0.78% | 1.49% | 2.19% | 2.85% | 4.36% | 4.81% | 6.06% | 7.90% | 9.46% | 11.85% | 13.23% | 16.08% | 18.65% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.04% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.70% | 1.26% | 1.85% | 2.78% | 3.57% | 5.37% | 6.79% | 10.03% | 13.12% | 21.05% | 32.90% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 55.16% | 44.84% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.40% | 75.60% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6.96% | 93.04% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.66% | 93.34% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.48% | 96.52% |
| New York Giants | 1.86% | 98.14% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.48% | 98.52% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 40.61% | 59.39% |
| Baltimore Colts | 37.90% | 62.10% |
| Detroit Lions | 6.48% | 93.52% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.24% | 94.76% |
| Chicago Bears | 5.03% | 94.97% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4.54% | 95.46% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.20% | 99.80% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 40.61% | 27.22% |
| Baltimore Colts | 37.90% | 25.17% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 55.16% | 24.20% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.40% | 6.07% |
| Chicago Bears | 5.03% | 3.35% |
| Detroit Lions | 6.48% | 2.82% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.24% | 2.64% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6.96% | 2.52% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4.54% | 2.29% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.66% | 1.84% |
| Washington Redskins | 3.48% | 1.00% |
| New York Giants | 1.86% | 0.54% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.48% | 0.22% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.20% | 0.12% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 12.52% | 1.81% | 0.52% | 1.79% | 0.48% | 7.19% | 0.86% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 1.80% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.68% | 0.17% | |||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 8.74% | 1.12% | 2.28% | 8.98% | 0.04% | 1.29% | 1.75% | |||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.85% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.16% | |||||||
| Detroit Lions | 1.32% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.06% | 1.04% | 0.05% | |||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 13.42% | 1.80% | 0.61% | 2.15% | 0.47% | 7.64% | 1.13% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.71% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.86% | 0.13% | |||||||
| New York Giants | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.01% | |||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.72% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.11% | |||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.02% | ||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.17% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.91% | 0.13% | |||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.98% | 0.22% | 0.72% | 2.19% | 0.01% | 0.42% | 0.53% | |||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 57.82% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 42.18% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 42.18% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 57.82% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1965-09-19 | Minnesota Vikings | W 35-16 | 1562.22 | 1527.29 | 53.55% | 43.56% | +25.76 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-20 | 1587.98 | 1597.52 | 47.19% | 49.93% | -11.06 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-03 | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-24 | 1576.92 | 1510.25 | 57.98% | 39.13% | +9.22 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-10 | Detroit Lions | W 31-7 | 1586.14 | 1570.71 | 50.77% | 46.34% | +30.76 | 3-1 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Washington Redskins | W 38-7 | 1616.90 | 1420.04 | 73.83% | 23.30% | +17.82 | 4-1 |
| 1965-10-24 | Los Angeles Rams | W 35-20 | 1634.72 | 1371.68 | 79.95% | 17.18% | +9.17 | 5-1 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 34-28 | 1643.89 | 1500.51 | 67.88% | 29.24% | +9.81 | 6-1 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ Chicago Bears | W 26-21 | 1653.70 | 1552.21 | 62.65% | 34.47% | +10.52 | 7-1 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 41-21 | 1664.22 | 1550.13 | 64.27% | 32.85% | +20.06 | 8-1 |
| 1965-11-21 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-24 | 1684.28 | 1444.13 | 77.99% | 19.14% | +8.34 | 9-1 |
| 1965-11-25 | @ Detroit Lions | T 24-24 | 1692.62 | 1492.54 | 74.16% | 22.97% | -1.71 | 9-1 |
| 1965-12-05 | Chicago Bears | L 0-13 | 1690.91 | 1604.96 | 60.60% | 36.52% | -29.43 | 9-2 |
| 1965-12-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 27-42 | 1661.48 | 1603.41 | 56.80% | 40.32% | -29.66 | 9-3 |
| 1965-12-18 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 20-17 | 1631.82 | 1462.46 | 70.88% | 26.24% | +6.23 | 10-3 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 24-52 | 1466.81 | 1456.60 | 50.03% | 47.09% | -35.78 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-25 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 28-30 | 1431.03 | 1430.99 | 48.56% | 48.55% | -9.30 | 0-2 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-23 | 1421.73 | 1608.59 | 24.34% | 72.78% | -10.02 | 0-3 |
| 1965-10-10 | Los Angeles Rams | W 31-6 | 1411.71 | 1430.63 | 45.84% | 51.27% | +34.63 | 1-3 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 45-37 | 1446.34 | 1530.25 | 36.79% | 60.32% | +22.99 | 2-3 |
| 1965-10-24 | Detroit Lions | W 38-10 | 1469.33 | 1524.83 | 40.67% | 56.44% | +40.27 | 3-3 |
| 1965-10-31 | Green Bay Packers | W 31-10 | 1509.60 | 1663.10 | 28.05% | 69.07% | +42.61 | 4-3 |
| 1965-11-07 | Baltimore Colts | L 21-26 | 1552.21 | 1653.70 | 34.47% | 62.65% | -10.52 | 4-4 |
| 1965-11-14 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 34-13 | 1541.69 | 1567.22 | 44.90% | 52.22% | +32.32 | 5-4 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ Detroit Lions | W 17-10 | 1574.01 | 1506.60 | 58.09% | 39.03% | +14.05 | 6-4 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ New York Giants | W 35-14 | 1588.06 | 1424.59 | 70.21% | 26.91% | +16.90 | 7-4 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 13-0 | 1604.96 | 1690.91 | 36.52% | 60.60% | +29.43 | 8-4 |
| 1965-12-12 | San Francisco 49ers | W 61-20 | 1634.39 | 1535.94 | 62.25% | 34.87% | +30.46 | 9-4 |
| 1965-12-19 | Minnesota Vikings | L 17-24 | 1664.85 | 1496.09 | 70.81% | 26.31% | -25.22 | 9-5 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Washington Redskins | W 17-7 | 1566.76 | 1492.03 | 59.08% | 38.03% | +16.38 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 13-49 | 1583.14 | 1501.24 | 60.05% | 37.06% | -48.55 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-17 | 1534.59 | 1484.14 | 55.74% | 41.38% | +23.86 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-19 | 1558.45 | 1404.01 | 69.18% | 27.94% | +8.56 | 3-1 |
| 1965-10-17 | Dallas Cowboys | W 23-17 | 1567.01 | 1489.25 | 59.49% | 37.62% | +12.55 | 4-1 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ New York Giants | W 38-14 | 1579.56 | 1430.57 | 68.54% | 28.58% | +19.17 | 5-1 |
| 1965-10-31 | Minnesota Vikings | L 17-27 | 1598.73 | 1513.83 | 60.46% | 36.66% | -25.75 | 5-2 |
| 1965-11-07 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-34 | 1572.98 | 1433.23 | 67.44% | 29.68% | +8.12 | 6-2 |
| 1965-11-14 | New York Giants | W 34-21 | 1581.10 | 1404.23 | 71.71% | 25.42% | +12.57 | 7-2 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 24-17 | 1593.67 | 1478.67 | 64.38% | 32.73% | +11.83 | 8-2 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 42-21 | 1605.50 | 1371.83 | 77.40% | 19.72% | +12.45 | 9-2 |
| 1965-12-05 | Washington Redskins | W 24-16 | 1617.95 | 1481.49 | 67.04% | 30.07% | +11.63 | 10-2 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 7-42 | 1629.58 | 1401.17 | 76.92% | 20.21% | -61.28 | 10-3 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-24 | 1568.30 | 1419.73 | 68.49% | 28.63% | +6.79 | 11-3 |
| 1965-09-19 | New York Giants | W 31-2 | 1472.46 | 1433.03 | 54.19% | 42.93% | +31.38 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | Washington Redskins | W 27-7 | 1503.84 | 1475.66 | 52.59% | 44.52% | +27.00 | 2-0 |
| 1965-10-04 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 13-20 | 1530.84 | 1549.78 | 45.84% | 51.28% | -16.43 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-10 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-35 | 1514.41 | 1460.28 | 56.25% | 40.86% | -25.16 | 2-2 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-23 | 1489.25 | 1567.01 | 37.62% | 59.49% | -12.55 | 2-3 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 3-13 | 1476.70 | 1652.00 | 25.59% | 71.53% | -11.10 | 2-4 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 13-22 | 1465.60 | 1403.28 | 57.39% | 39.73% | -23.21 | 2-5 |
| 1965-11-07 | San Francisco 49ers | W 39-31 | 1442.39 | 1490.71 | 41.68% | 55.44% | +21.15 | 3-5 |
| 1965-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-17 | 1463.54 | 1418.12 | 55.03% | 42.08% | +15.13 | 4-5 |
| 1965-11-21 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-24 | 1478.67 | 1593.67 | 32.73% | 64.38% | -11.83 | 4-6 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ Washington Redskins | L 31-34 | 1466.84 | 1470.22 | 48.07% | 49.04% | -11.27 | 4-7 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 21-19 | 1455.57 | 1451.41 | 49.16% | 47.96% | +9.18 | 5-7 |
| 1965-12-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-13 | 1464.75 | 1442.75 | 51.71% | 45.40% | +23.03 | 6-7 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ New York Giants | W 38-20 | 1487.78 | 1465.72 | 51.72% | 45.39% | +26.10 | 7-7 |
| 1965-09-19 | Los Angeles Rams | W 20-0 | 1530.81 | 1453.97 | 59.37% | 37.74% | +22.99 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 31-29 | 1553.80 | 1501.52 | 55.99% | 41.12% | +7.90 | 2-0 |
| 1965-10-03 | Washington Redskins | W 14-10 | 1561.70 | 1448.65 | 64.13% | 32.98% | +9.01 | 3-0 |
| 1965-10-10 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 7-31 | 1570.71 | 1586.14 | 46.34% | 50.77% | -30.76 | 3-1 |
| 1965-10-17 | Green Bay Packers | L 21-31 | 1539.95 | 1636.87 | 35.07% | 62.05% | -15.12 | 3-2 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-38 | 1524.83 | 1469.33 | 56.44% | 40.67% | -40.27 | 3-3 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 31-7 | 1484.56 | 1362.51 | 65.27% | 31.85% | +21.32 | 4-3 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 12-7 | 1505.88 | 1620.49 | 32.78% | 64.33% | +19.37 | 5-3 |
| 1965-11-14 | San Francisco 49ers | L 21-27 | 1525.25 | 1469.56 | 56.47% | 40.65% | -18.65 | 5-4 |
| 1965-11-21 | Chicago Bears | L 10-17 | 1506.60 | 1574.01 | 39.03% | 58.09% | -14.06 | 5-5 |
| 1965-11-25 | Baltimore Colts | T 24-24 | 1492.54 | 1692.62 | 22.97% | 74.16% | +1.71 | 5-5 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-17 | 1494.25 | 1525.58 | 44.07% | 53.04% | -10.35 | 5-6 |
| 1965-12-12 | Minnesota Vikings | L 7-29 | 1483.90 | 1463.47 | 51.49% | 45.63% | -32.63 | 5-7 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-28 | 1451.27 | 1468.68 | 46.06% | 51.06% | +18.25 | 6-7 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 41-9 | 1570.85 | 1470.05 | 62.56% | 34.56% | +26.67 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | Baltimore Colts | W 20-17 | 1597.52 | 1587.98 | 49.93% | 47.19% | +11.07 | 2-0 |
| 1965-10-03 | Chicago Bears | W 23-14 | 1608.59 | 1421.73 | 72.78% | 24.34% | +10.02 | 3-0 |
| 1965-10-10 | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-10 | 1618.61 | 1501.03 | 64.71% | 32.41% | +18.26 | 4-0 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Detroit Lions | W 31-21 | 1636.87 | 1539.95 | 62.05% | 35.07% | +15.13 | 5-0 |
| 1965-10-24 | Dallas Cowboys | W 13-3 | 1652.00 | 1476.70 | 71.53% | 25.59% | +11.10 | 6-0 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-31 | 1663.10 | 1509.60 | 69.07% | 28.05% | -42.61 | 6-1 |
| 1965-11-07 | Detroit Lions | L 7-12 | 1620.49 | 1505.88 | 64.33% | 32.78% | -19.37 | 6-2 |
| 1965-11-14 | Los Angeles Rams | W 6-3 | 1601.12 | 1330.64 | 80.55% | 16.58% | +3.96 | 7-2 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 38-13 | 1605.08 | 1530.07 | 59.12% | 37.99% | +25.87 | 8-2 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-21 | 1630.95 | 1320.24 | 83.51% | 13.62% | -37.34 | 8-3 |
| 1965-12-05 | Minnesota Vikings | W 24-19 | 1593.61 | 1473.27 | 65.06% | 32.06% | +9.80 | 9-3 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 42-27 | 1603.41 | 1661.48 | 40.32% | 56.80% | +29.66 | 10-3 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ San Francisco 49ers | T 24-24 | 1633.07 | 1505.48 | 65.96% | 31.16% | -1.16 | 10-3 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-20 | 1453.97 | 1530.81 | 37.74% | 59.37% | -22.98 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-25 | Chicago Bears | W 30-28 | 1430.99 | 1431.03 | 48.55% | 48.56% | +9.29 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-03 | Minnesota Vikings | L 35-38 | 1440.28 | 1493.61 | 40.97% | 56.14% | -9.65 | 1-2 |
| 1965-10-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 6-31 | 1430.63 | 1411.71 | 51.27% | 45.84% | -34.64 | 1-3 |
| 1965-10-17 | San Francisco 49ers | L 21-45 | 1395.99 | 1482.77 | 36.41% | 60.71% | -24.31 | 1-4 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 20-35 | 1371.68 | 1634.72 | 17.18% | 79.95% | -9.17 | 1-5 |
| 1965-10-31 | Detroit Lions | L 7-31 | 1362.51 | 1484.56 | 31.85% | 65.27% | -21.33 | 1-6 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 13-24 | 1341.18 | 1539.59 | 23.14% | 73.98% | -10.54 | 1-7 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 3-6 | 1330.64 | 1601.12 | 16.58% | 80.55% | -3.96 | 1-8 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 27-30 | 1326.68 | 1488.21 | 27.13% | 69.99% | -6.44 | 1-9 |
| 1965-11-28 | Green Bay Packers | W 21-10 | 1320.24 | 1630.95 | 13.62% | 83.51% | +37.34 | 2-9 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-3 | 1357.58 | 1486.35 | 31.01% | 66.11% | +43.59 | 3-9 |
| 1965-12-12 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 42-7 | 1401.17 | 1629.58 | 20.21% | 76.92% | +61.29 | 4-9 |
| 1965-12-18 | Baltimore Colts | L 17-20 | 1462.46 | 1631.82 | 26.24% | 70.88% | -6.24 | 4-10 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 16-35 | 1527.29 | 1562.22 | 43.56% | 53.55% | -25.77 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-26 | Detroit Lions | L 29-31 | 1501.52 | 1553.80 | 41.12% | 55.99% | -7.91 | 0-2 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 38-35 | 1493.61 | 1440.28 | 56.14% | 40.97% | +9.65 | 1-2 |
| 1965-10-09 | New York Giants | W 40-14 | 1503.26 | 1434.90 | 58.22% | 38.90% | +26.99 | 2-2 |
| 1965-10-17 | Chicago Bears | L 37-45 | 1530.25 | 1446.34 | 60.32% | 36.79% | -22.98 | 2-3 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 42-41 | 1507.27 | 1507.08 | 48.58% | 48.53% | +6.56 | 3-3 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-17 | 1513.83 | 1598.73 | 36.66% | 60.46% | +25.76 | 4-3 |
| 1965-11-07 | Los Angeles Rams | W 24-13 | 1539.59 | 1341.18 | 73.98% | 23.14% | +10.54 | 5-3 |
| 1965-11-14 | Baltimore Colts | L 21-41 | 1550.13 | 1664.22 | 32.85% | 64.27% | -20.06 | 5-4 |
| 1965-11-21 | Green Bay Packers | L 13-38 | 1530.07 | 1605.08 | 37.99% | 59.12% | -25.87 | 5-5 |
| 1965-11-28 | San Francisco 49ers | L 24-45 | 1504.20 | 1494.65 | 49.93% | 47.18% | -30.93 | 5-6 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 19-24 | 1473.27 | 1593.61 | 32.06% | 65.06% | -9.80 | 5-7 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Detroit Lions | W 29-7 | 1463.47 | 1483.90 | 45.63% | 51.49% | +32.62 | 6-7 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ Chicago Bears | W 24-17 | 1496.09 | 1664.85 | 26.31% | 70.81% | +25.22 | 7-7 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 2-31 | 1433.03 | 1472.46 | 42.93% | 54.19% | -31.38 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 16-14 | 1401.65 | 1495.89 | 35.42% | 61.70% | +11.75 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 23-13 | 1413.40 | 1425.51 | 46.82% | 50.30% | +21.50 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-09 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-40 | 1434.90 | 1503.26 | 38.90% | 58.22% | -26.99 | 2-2 |
| 1965-10-17 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-27 | 1407.91 | 1485.44 | 37.65% | 59.46% | +22.66 | 3-2 |
| 1965-10-24 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 14-38 | 1430.57 | 1579.56 | 28.58% | 68.54% | -19.17 | 3-3 |
| 1965-10-31 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 14-10 | 1411.40 | 1577.85 | 26.57% | 70.55% | +18.99 | 4-3 |
| 1965-11-07 | Washington Redskins | L 7-23 | 1430.39 | 1431.92 | 48.34% | 48.78% | -26.16 | 4-4 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-34 | 1404.23 | 1581.10 | 25.42% | 71.71% | -12.58 | 4-5 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 28-15 | 1391.65 | 1534.90 | 29.26% | 67.86% | +32.94 | 5-5 |
| 1965-11-28 | Chicago Bears | L 14-35 | 1424.59 | 1588.06 | 26.91% | 70.21% | -16.90 | 5-6 |
| 1965-12-05 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 35-10 | 1407.69 | 1359.39 | 55.44% | 41.68% | +28.31 | 6-6 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-10 | 1436.00 | 1469.85 | 43.71% | 53.40% | +29.72 | 7-6 |
| 1965-12-19 | Dallas Cowboys | L 20-38 | 1465.72 | 1487.78 | 45.39% | 51.72% | -26.11 | 7-7 |
| 1965-09-19 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 34-27 | 1476.29 | 1520.84 | 42.20% | 54.91% | +19.60 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | New York Giants | L 14-16 | 1495.89 | 1401.65 | 61.70% | 35.42% | -11.75 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-03 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-35 | 1484.14 | 1534.59 | 41.38% | 55.74% | -23.86 | 1-2 |
| 1965-10-10 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 35-24 | 1460.28 | 1514.41 | 40.86% | 56.25% | +25.16 | 2-2 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ New York Giants | L 27-35 | 1485.44 | 1407.91 | 59.46% | 37.65% | -22.66 | 2-3 |
| 1965-10-24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 14-20 | 1462.78 | 1383.58 | 59.69% | 37.43% | -19.70 | 2-4 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ Washington Redskins | L 21-23 | 1443.08 | 1422.06 | 51.57% | 45.54% | -9.85 | 2-5 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 34-38 | 1433.23 | 1572.98 | 29.68% | 67.44% | -8.13 | 2-6 |
| 1965-11-14 | Washington Redskins | W 21-14 | 1425.10 | 1458.08 | 43.84% | 53.28% | +19.03 | 3-6 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 24-34 | 1444.13 | 1684.28 | 19.14% | 77.99% | -8.33 | 3-7 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 28-24 | 1435.80 | 1501.96 | 39.20% | 57.92% | +15.61 | 4-7 |
| 1965-12-05 | Dallas Cowboys | L 19-21 | 1451.41 | 1455.57 | 47.96% | 49.16% | -9.18 | 4-8 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 47-13 | 1442.23 | 1331.07 | 63.89% | 33.22% | +26.45 | 5-8 |
| 1965-12-19 | Detroit Lions | L 28-35 | 1468.68 | 1451.27 | 51.06% | 46.06% | -18.25 | 5-9 |
| 1965-09-19 | Green Bay Packers | L 9-41 | 1470.05 | 1570.85 | 34.56% | 62.56% | -26.68 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-27 | 1443.37 | 1492.38 | 41.58% | 55.54% | -17.86 | 0-2 |
| 1965-10-03 | New York Giants | L 13-23 | 1425.51 | 1413.40 | 50.30% | 46.82% | -21.50 | 0-3 |
| 1965-10-09 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 19-24 | 1404.01 | 1558.45 | 27.94% | 69.18% | -8.56 | 0-4 |
| 1965-10-17 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 7-20 | 1395.45 | 1585.82 | 23.97% | 73.15% | -11.87 | 0-5 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-14 | 1383.58 | 1462.78 | 37.43% | 59.69% | +19.70 | 1-5 |
| 1965-10-31 | Dallas Cowboys | W 22-13 | 1403.28 | 1465.60 | 39.73% | 57.39% | +23.21 | 2-5 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-21 | 1426.49 | 1558.85 | 30.57% | 66.55% | -8.37 | 2-6 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 17-24 | 1418.12 | 1463.54 | 42.08% | 55.03% | -15.12 | 2-7 |
| 1965-11-21 | Washington Redskins | L 3-31 | 1403.00 | 1439.05 | 43.40% | 53.71% | -31.17 | 2-8 |
| 1965-11-28 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-42 | 1371.83 | 1605.50 | 19.72% | 77.40% | -12.44 | 2-9 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ New York Giants | L 10-35 | 1359.39 | 1407.69 | 41.68% | 55.44% | -28.32 | 2-10 |
| 1965-12-12 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 13-47 | 1331.07 | 1442.23 | 33.22% | 63.89% | -26.45 | 2-11 |
| 1965-12-19 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-35 | 1304.62 | 1440.13 | 30.19% | 66.93% | -18.93 | 2-12 |
| 1965-09-19 | Chicago Bears | W 52-24 | 1456.60 | 1466.81 | 47.09% | 50.03% | +35.78 | 1-0 |
| 1965-09-26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 27-17 | 1492.38 | 1443.37 | 55.54% | 41.58% | +17.87 | 2-0 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 24-27 | 1510.25 | 1576.92 | 39.13% | 57.98% | -9.22 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-10 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-27 | 1501.03 | 1618.61 | 32.41% | 64.71% | -18.26 | 2-2 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 45-21 | 1482.77 | 1395.99 | 60.71% | 36.41% | +24.31 | 3-2 |
| 1965-10-24 | Minnesota Vikings | L 41-42 | 1507.08 | 1507.27 | 48.53% | 48.58% | -6.57 | 3-3 |
| 1965-10-31 | Baltimore Colts | L 28-34 | 1500.51 | 1643.89 | 29.24% | 67.88% | -9.80 | 3-4 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 31-39 | 1490.71 | 1442.39 | 55.44% | 41.68% | -21.15 | 3-5 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-21 | 1469.56 | 1525.25 | 40.65% | 56.47% | +18.65 | 4-5 |
| 1965-11-21 | Los Angeles Rams | W 30-27 | 1488.21 | 1326.68 | 69.99% | 27.13% | +6.44 | 5-5 |
| 1965-11-28 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 45-24 | 1494.65 | 1504.20 | 47.18% | 49.93% | +30.93 | 6-5 |
| 1965-12-05 | Detroit Lions | W 17-14 | 1525.58 | 1494.25 | 53.04% | 44.07% | +10.36 | 7-5 |
| 1965-12-12 | @ Chicago Bears | L 20-61 | 1535.94 | 1634.39 | 34.87% | 62.25% | -30.46 | 7-6 |
| 1965-12-19 | Green Bay Packers | T 24-24 | 1505.48 | 1633.07 | 31.16% | 65.96% | +1.16 | 7-6 |
| 1965-09-19 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 27-34 | 1520.84 | 1476.29 | 54.91% | 42.20% | -19.60 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 49-13 | 1501.24 | 1583.14 | 37.06% | 60.05% | +48.54 | 1-1 |
| 1965-10-04 | Dallas Cowboys | W 20-13 | 1549.78 | 1530.84 | 51.28% | 45.84% | +16.44 | 2-1 |
| 1965-10-10 | @ Washington Redskins | W 37-16 | 1566.22 | 1439.64 | 65.83% | 31.28% | +19.60 | 3-1 |
| 1965-10-17 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 20-7 | 1585.82 | 1395.45 | 73.15% | 23.97% | +11.87 | 4-1 |
| 1965-10-24 | Washington Redskins | L 20-24 | 1597.69 | 1402.22 | 73.68% | 23.44% | -19.84 | 4-2 |
| 1965-10-31 | @ New York Giants | L 10-14 | 1577.85 | 1411.40 | 70.55% | 26.57% | -19.00 | 4-3 |
| 1965-11-07 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 21-17 | 1558.85 | 1426.49 | 66.55% | 30.57% | +8.37 | 5-3 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Chicago Bears | L 13-34 | 1567.22 | 1541.69 | 52.22% | 44.90% | -32.32 | 5-4 |
| 1965-11-21 | New York Giants | L 15-28 | 1534.90 | 1391.65 | 67.86% | 29.26% | -32.94 | 5-5 |
| 1965-11-28 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-28 | 1501.96 | 1435.80 | 57.92% | 39.20% | -15.61 | 5-6 |
| 1965-12-05 | Los Angeles Rams | L 3-27 | 1486.35 | 1357.58 | 66.11% | 31.01% | -43.60 | 5-7 |
| 1965-12-11 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 13-27 | 1442.75 | 1464.75 | 45.40% | 51.71% | -23.02 | 5-8 |
| 1965-12-19 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-27 | 1419.73 | 1568.30 | 28.63% | 68.49% | -6.79 | 5-9 |
| 1965-09-19 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-17 | 1492.03 | 1566.76 | 38.03% | 59.08% | -16.37 | 0-1 |
| 1965-09-26 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 7-27 | 1475.66 | 1503.84 | 44.52% | 52.59% | -27.01 | 0-2 |
| 1965-10-03 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-14 | 1448.65 | 1561.70 | 32.98% | 64.13% | -9.01 | 0-3 |
| 1965-10-10 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 16-37 | 1439.64 | 1566.22 | 31.28% | 65.83% | -19.60 | 0-4 |
| 1965-10-17 | Baltimore Colts | L 7-38 | 1420.04 | 1616.90 | 23.30% | 73.83% | -17.82 | 0-5 |
| 1965-10-24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-20 | 1402.22 | 1597.69 | 23.44% | 73.68% | +19.84 | 1-5 |
| 1965-10-31 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 23-21 | 1422.06 | 1443.08 | 45.54% | 51.57% | +9.86 | 2-5 |
| 1965-11-07 | @ New York Giants | W 23-7 | 1431.92 | 1430.39 | 48.78% | 48.34% | +26.16 | 3-5 |
| 1965-11-14 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-21 | 1458.08 | 1425.10 | 53.28% | 43.84% | -19.03 | 3-6 |
| 1965-11-21 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 31-3 | 1439.05 | 1403.00 | 53.71% | 43.40% | +31.17 | 4-6 |
| 1965-11-28 | Dallas Cowboys | W 34-31 | 1470.22 | 1466.84 | 49.04% | 48.07% | +11.27 | 5-6 |
| 1965-12-05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 16-24 | 1481.49 | 1617.95 | 30.07% | 67.04% | -11.64 | 5-7 |
| 1965-12-12 | New York Giants | L 10-27 | 1469.85 | 1436.00 | 53.40% | 43.71% | -29.72 | 5-8 |
| 1965-12-19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 35-14 | 1440.13 | 1304.62 | 66.93% | 30.19% | +18.93 | 6-8 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1965-12-26 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-13 | 1638.05 | 1631.91 | 50.88% | 49.12% | -11.58 | 0-1 |
| 1966-01-02 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 12-23 | 1575.09 | 1643.49 | 40.28% | 59.72% | -17.55 | 0-1 |
| 1965-12-26 | Baltimore Colts | W 13-10 | 1631.91 | 1638.05 | 49.12% | 50.88% | +11.58 | 1-0 |
| 1966-01-02 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 23-12 | 1643.49 | 1575.09 | 59.72% | 40.28% | +17.56 | 2-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1965-11-28 | 13.62% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1320.24 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 1630.95 | 10 |
| 2 | 1965-12-12 | 20.21% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1401.17 | 42 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1629.58 | 7 |
| 3 | 1965-10-24 | 23.44% | Washington Redskins | 1402.22 | 24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1597.69 | 20 |
| 4 | 1965-12-19 | 26.31% | Minnesota Vikings | 1496.09 | 24 | @ Chicago Bears | 1664.85 | 17 |
| 5 | 1965-10-31 | 26.57% | @ New York Giants | 1411.40 | 14 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1577.85 | 10 |
| 6 | 1965-10-31 | 28.05% | @ Chicago Bears | 1509.60 | 31 | Green Bay Packers | 1663.10 | 10 |
| 7 | 1965-11-21 | 29.26% | New York Giants | 1391.65 | 28 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1534.90 | 15 |
| 8 | 1965-12-05 | 31.01% | Los Angeles Rams | 1357.58 | 27 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1486.35 | 3 |
| 9 | 1965-11-07 | 32.78% | Detroit Lions | 1505.88 | 12 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1620.49 | 7 |
| 10 | 1965-09-26 | 35.42% | New York Giants | 1401.65 | 16 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1495.89 | 14 |
| 11 | 1965-12-05 | 36.52% | Chicago Bears | 1604.96 | 13 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1690.91 | 0 |
| 12 | 1965-10-31 | 36.66% | Minnesota Vikings | 1513.83 | 27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1598.73 | 17 |
| 13 | 1965-10-17 | 36.79% | Chicago Bears | 1446.34 | 45 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1530.25 | 37 |
| 14 | 1965-09-26 | 37.06% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1501.24 | 49 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1583.14 | 13 |
| 15 | 1965-10-24 | 37.43% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1383.58 | 20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1462.78 | 14 |
| 16 | 1965-10-17 | 37.65% | @ New York Giants | 1407.91 | 35 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1485.44 | 27 |
| 17 | 1965-11-28 | 39.20% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1435.80 | 28 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1501.96 | 24 |
| 18 | 1965-10-31 | 39.73% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1403.28 | 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 1465.60 | 13 |
| 19 | 1965-12-12 | 40.32% | Green Bay Packers | 1603.41 | 42 | @ Baltimore Colts | 1661.48 | 27 |
| 20 | 1965-11-14 | 40.65% | San Francisco 49ers | 1469.56 | 27 | @ Detroit Lions | 1525.25 | 21 |
| 21 | 1965-10-24 | 40.67% | @ Chicago Bears | 1469.33 | 38 | Detroit Lions | 1524.83 | 10 |
| 22 | 1965-10-10 | 40.86% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1460.28 | 35 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1514.41 | 24 |
| 23 | 1965-11-07 | 41.68% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1442.39 | 39 | San Francisco 49ers | 1490.71 | 31 |
| 24 | 1965-09-19 | 42.20% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1476.29 | 34 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1520.84 | 27 |
| 25 | 1965-12-12 | 43.71% | New York Giants | 1436.00 | 27 | @ Washington Redskins | 1469.85 | 10 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1965-12-12 | 61.29 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 42 | 1401.17 | 20.21% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 7 | 1629.58 | 76.92% |
| 2 | 1965-09-26 | 48.55 | St. Louis Cardinals | 49 | 1501.24 | 37.06% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 13 | 1583.14 | 60.05% |
| 3 | 1965-12-05 | 43.60 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 | 1357.58 | 31.01% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 1486.35 | 66.11% |
| 4 | 1965-10-31 | 42.61 | @ Chicago Bears | 31 | 1509.60 | 28.05% | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 1663.10 | 69.07% |
| 5 | 1965-10-24 | 40.27 | @ Chicago Bears | 38 | 1469.33 | 40.67% | Detroit Lions | 10 | 1524.83 | 56.44% |
| 6 | 1965-11-28 | 37.34 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 21 | 1320.24 | 13.62% | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 1630.95 | 83.51% |
| 7 | 1965-09-19 | 35.78 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 52 | 1456.60 | 47.09% | Chicago Bears | 24 | 1466.81 | 50.03% |
| 8 | 1965-10-10 | 34.64 | @ Chicago Bears | 31 | 1411.71 | 45.84% | Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 1430.63 | 51.27% |
| 9 | 1965-11-21 | 32.94 | New York Giants | 28 | 1391.65 | 29.26% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 15 | 1534.90 | 67.86% |
| 10 | 1965-12-12 | 32.63 | Minnesota Vikings | 29 | 1463.47 | 45.63% | @ Detroit Lions | 7 | 1483.90 | 51.49% |
| 11 | 1965-11-14 | 32.32 | @ Chicago Bears | 34 | 1541.69 | 44.90% | St. Louis Cardinals | 13 | 1567.22 | 52.22% |
| 12 | 1965-09-19 | 31.38 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 31 | 1472.46 | 54.19% | New York Giants | 2 | 1433.03 | 42.93% |
| 13 | 1965-11-21 | 31.17 | Washington Redskins | 31 | 1439.05 | 53.71% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 1403.00 | 43.40% |
| 14 | 1965-11-28 | 30.93 | San Francisco 49ers | 45 | 1494.65 | 47.18% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 1504.20 | 49.93% |
| 15 | 1965-10-10 | 30.76 | @ Baltimore Colts | 31 | 1586.14 | 50.77% | Detroit Lions | 7 | 1570.71 | 46.34% |
| 16 | 1965-12-12 | 30.46 | @ Chicago Bears | 61 | 1634.39 | 62.25% | San Francisco 49ers | 20 | 1535.94 | 34.87% |
| 17 | 1965-12-12 | 29.72 | New York Giants | 27 | 1436.00 | 43.71% | @ Washington Redskins | 10 | 1469.85 | 53.40% |
| 18 | 1965-12-12 | 29.66 | Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1603.41 | 40.32% | @ Baltimore Colts | 27 | 1661.48 | 56.80% |
| 19 | 1965-12-05 | 29.43 | Chicago Bears | 13 | 1604.96 | 36.52% | @ Baltimore Colts | 0 | 1690.91 | 60.60% |
| 20 | 1965-12-05 | 28.32 | @ New York Giants | 35 | 1407.69 | 55.44% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 1359.39 | 41.68% |
| 21 | 1965-09-26 | 27.01 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 27 | 1503.84 | 52.59% | Washington Redskins | 7 | 1475.66 | 44.52% |
| 22 | 1965-10-09 | 26.99 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 40 | 1503.26 | 58.22% | New York Giants | 14 | 1434.90 | 38.90% |
| 23 | 1965-09-19 | 26.68 | Green Bay Packers | 41 | 1570.85 | 62.56% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 1470.05 | 34.56% |
| 24 | 1965-12-12 | 26.45 | Philadelphia Eagles | 47 | 1442.23 | 63.89% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 | 1331.07 | 33.22% |
| 25 | 1965-11-07 | 26.16 | Washington Redskins | 23 | 1431.92 | 48.78% | @ New York Giants | 7 | 1430.39 | 48.34% |