2000 NFL Season

248 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Baltimore Ravens

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

New York Giants

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1990

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

3.16 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.84 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Diego Chargers

4.16 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.16 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tennessee Titans Division	13	3	.812	—	346	191	+155	11.09	+1.91
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	333	165	+168	9.70	+2.30
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	4	321	255	+66	8.14	+0.86
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	9	.438	6	367	327	+40	8.98	-1.98
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	9	185	359	-174	4.94	-0.94
6	Cleveland Browns	3	13	.188	10	161	419	-258	4.04	-1.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	5	.688	—	323	226	+97	9.20	+1.80
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	429	326	+103	9.22	+0.78
3	New York Jets	9	7	.562	2	321	321	0	8.55	+0.45
4	Buffalo Bills	8	8	.500	3	315	350	-35	8.53	-0.53
5	New England Patriots	5	11	.312	6	276	338	-62	6.91	-1.91

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	12	4	.750	—	479	299	+180	10.26	+1.74
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	485	369	+116	9.70	+1.30
3	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	5	355	354	+1	8.48	-1.48
4	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	6	320	405	-85	6.85	-0.85
5	San Diego Chargers	1	15	.062	11	269	440	-171	5.16	-4.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	5	.688	—	397	371	+26	10.27	+0.73
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	388	269	+119	9.49	+0.51
3	Detroit Lions	9	7	.562	2	307	307	0	7.75	+1.25
4	Green Bay Packers	9	7	.562	2	353	323	+30	7.81	+1.19
5	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	6	216	355	-139	5.15	-0.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	12	4	.750	—	328	246	+82	8.84	+3.16
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	351	245	+106	9.14	+1.86
3	Washington Redskins	8	8	.500	4	281	269	+12	9.17	-1.17
4	Dallas Cowboys	5	11	.312	7	294	361	-67	7.06	-2.06
5	Arizona Cardinals	3	13	.188	9	210	443	-233	5.27	-2.27

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	10	6	.625	—	354	305	+49	7.62	+2.38
2	St. Louis Rams Playoffs	10	6	.625	—	540	471	+69	10.66	-0.66
3	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	3	310	310	0	8.12	-1.12
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	4	388	422	-34	6.25	-0.25
5	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	6	252	413	-161	5.65	-1.65

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

Dec 30

Baltimore Ravens 21

Denver Broncos 3

Dec 31

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 27

Miami Dolphins 0

Jan 6

Baltimore Ravens 24

Tennessee Titans 10

Jan 7

Conference Championship

Baltimore Ravens 16

Oakland Raiders 3

Jan 14

NFC

Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints 31

St. Louis Rams 28

Dec 30

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

Dec 31

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 34

New Orleans Saints 16

Jan 6

New York Giants 20

Philadelphia Eagles 10

Jan 7

Conference Championship

New York Giants 41

Minnesota Vikings 0

Jan 14

Super Bowl

Baltimore Ravens 34

New York Giants 7

Jan 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC Central	1676	13	11.09	+1.91	91.97%	5	8	10	11	12	14	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1669	12	10.26	+1.74	89.04%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1643	10	9.22	+0.78	74.78%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1634	10	9.49	+0.51	70.19%	1	6	8	9	11	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC Central	1620	12	9.70	+2.30	94.05%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1607	11	9.20	+1.80	88.70%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1604	11	9.70	+1.30	83.84%	3	7	8	10	11	13	15
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1599	10	10.66	-0.66	45.98%	5	8	9	11	12	14	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1580	12	8.84	+3.16	97.49%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1568	11	10.27	+0.73	74.01%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1568	9	7.81	+1.19	81.36%	0	5	6	8	9	11	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1564	11	9.14	+1.86	89.48%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1547	9	8.55	+0.45	69.43%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1535	9	8.14	+0.86	76.43%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1518	8	8.53	-0.53	49.36%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1515	8	9.17	-1.17	36.08%	3	6	8	9	10	12	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1509	9	7.75	+1.25	82.01%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1509	10	7.62	+2.38	93.22%	0	4	6	8	9	11	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC Central	1504	7	8.98	-1.98	20.99%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC West	1498	7	8.12	-1.12	37.25%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1482	7	8.48	-1.48	30.91%	2	5	7	8	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1435	6	6.85	-0.85	44.02%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1435	6	6.25	-0.25	56.19%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1429	5	7.06	-2.06	20.68%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1424	5	6.91	-1.91	23.45%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1369	5	5.15	-0.15	58.99%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1349	4	5.65	-1.65	27.69%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1320	4	4.94	-0.94	41.63%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1296	1	5.16	-4.16	1.52%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1247	3	5.27	-2.27	16.67%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC Central	1246	3	4.04	-1.04	39.34%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Jaguars	Steelers	Titans
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cardinals	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Arizona Cardinals	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	49ers	Rams
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	12	8.84	+3.16
2	New Orleans Saints	10	7.62	+2.38
3	Baltimore Ravens	12	9.70	+2.30
4	Tennessee Titans	13	11.09	+1.91
5	Philadelphia Eagles	11	9.14	+1.86

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	1	5.16	-4.16
2	Arizona Cardinals	3	5.27	-2.27
3	Dallas Cowboys	5	7.06	-2.06
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	8.98	-1.98
5	New England Patriots	5	6.91	-1.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	6	Oct 8 – Nov 12	1 in 68
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Oct 1 – Oct 29	1 in 55
3	Tennessee Titans	8	Sep 10 – Nov 5	1 in 35
4	Washington Redskins	5	Sep 24 – Oct 22	1 in 35
5	Denver Broncos	6	Nov 5 – Dec 10	1 in 32

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	11	Sep 3 – Nov 19	1 in 122
2	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Nov 5 – Dec 4	1 in 84
3	Washington Redskins	4	Nov 26 – Dec 16	1 in 50
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	Sep 25 – Oct 22	1 in 36
5	St. Louis Rams	3	Nov 20 – Dec 3	1 in 27

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Tennessee Titans	58.00%	24.26%	12.01%	5.02%	0.67%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	21.45%	32.08%	25.73%	16.80%	3.41%	0.53%
Jacksonville Jaguars	13.25%	25.78%	30.95%	23.38%	5.53%	1.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.07%	16.64%	26.28%	36.28%	11.01%	2.72%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.18%	0.99%	3.44%	12.39%	48.16%	34.84%
Cleveland Browns	0.05%	0.25%	1.59%	6.13%	31.22%	60.76%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Indianapolis Colts	29.04%	25.05%	20.21%	15.90%	9.80%
Miami Dolphins	29.37%	24.40%	20.39%	16.13%	9.71%
Buffalo Bills	18.51%	20.85%	22.11%	21.87%	16.66%
New York Jets	18.55%	20.71%	22.55%	21.99%	16.20%
New England Patriots	4.53%	8.99%	14.74%	24.11%	47.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	47.08%	28.96%	16.61%	6.14%	1.21%
Denver Broncos	33.43%	33.79%	21.84%	8.69%	2.25%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.06%	24.79%	32.62%	20.26%	7.27%
Seattle Seahawks	3.73%	9.74%	20.75%	40.34%	25.44%
San Diego Chargers	0.70%	2.72%	8.18%	24.57%	63.83%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	50.30%	27.95%	13.72%	6.52%	1.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.58%	33.24%	21.45%	11.74%	2.99%
Green Bay Packers	9.38%	18.59%	28.63%	29.97%	13.43%
Detroit Lions	9.08%	17.58%	28.43%	31.07%	13.84%
Chicago Bears	0.66%	2.64%	7.77%	20.70%	68.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	35.00%	28.06%	21.47%	12.29%	3.18%
Philadelphia Eagles	30.67%	28.10%	22.99%	13.61%	4.63%
New York Giants	26.18%	26.97%	25.15%	15.77%	5.93%
Dallas Cowboys	7.04%	13.58%	21.78%	36.13%	21.47%
Arizona Cardinals	1.11%	3.29%	8.61%	22.20%	64.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
St. Louis Rams	71.00%	19.58%	6.80%	2.10%	0.52%
Carolina Panthers	14.56%	33.71%	27.11%	16.64%	7.98%
New Orleans Saints	10.27%	27.18%	29.90%	20.49%	12.16%
San Francisco 49ers	2.43%	12.30%	20.53%	30.85%	33.89%
Atlanta Falcons	1.74%	7.23%	15.66%	29.92%	45.45%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tennessee Titans	30.33%	19.22%	12.79%	9.66%	7.78%	5.40%	4.43%	3.42%	2.67%	1.70%	1.31%	0.71%	0.37%	0.17%	0.03%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	15.93%	15.81%	13.44%	10.23%	9.43%	8.22%	6.79%	5.45%	5.10%	3.48%	2.46%	1.98%	0.83%	0.52%	0.29%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	9.41%	11.50%	11.34%	10.31%	10.43%	10.27%	8.10%	7.08%	7.12%	4.67%	3.45%	2.96%	1.72%	0.99%	0.55%	0.10%
Baltimore Ravens	10.46%	8.62%	9.93%	10.63%	10.01%	9.45%	8.83%	8.26%	6.54%	5.97%	4.55%	3.09%	1.82%	1.22%	0.40%	0.22%
Indianapolis Colts	7.02%	9.07%	9.50%	9.42%	9.22%	8.13%	8.23%	7.88%	7.04%	6.66%	5.99%	5.10%	3.36%	2.12%	1.10%	0.16%
Miami Dolphins	6.84%	8.83%	9.90%	9.07%	8.77%	8.87%	8.19%	7.42%	7.07%	7.06%	5.94%	4.72%	3.82%	2.24%	1.06%	0.20%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.19%	5.72%	6.68%	9.03%	9.03%	9.38%	9.28%	9.58%	8.71%	7.66%	7.62%	5.00%	3.37%	2.22%	1.00%	0.53%
New York Jets	4.06%	5.35%	6.12%	7.55%	7.57%	7.53%	8.54%	8.81%	8.28%	9.00%	8.04%	6.54%	6.54%	3.82%	1.90%	0.35%
Buffalo Bills	3.77%	5.22%	6.71%	7.11%	7.52%	7.76%	8.36%	8.10%	8.52%	8.47%	8.06%	7.54%	6.56%	3.95%	1.95%	0.40%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.49%	5.06%	5.69%	6.80%	7.13%	8.76%	8.47%	9.42%	10.22%	8.57%	7.82%	7.24%	5.16%	3.19%	2.54%	0.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.40%	3.13%	4.23%	5.09%	6.28%	6.71%	8.07%	9.36%	9.25%	9.98%	10.77%	9.77%	6.05%	4.60%	2.72%	1.59%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	1.19%	1.58%	2.11%	2.95%	3.77%	5.07%	5.98%	7.43%	8.99%	10.76%	13.74%	12.54%	10.00%	10.13%	3.15%
New England Patriots	0.42%	1.13%	1.77%	2.38%	2.99%	4.03%	4.92%	5.73%	6.61%	9.08%	10.30%	11.32%	15.30%	12.43%	8.53%	3.06%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.07%	0.20%	0.39%	0.58%	1.07%	1.47%	1.95%	2.85%	3.85%	6.00%	9.34%	12.90%	18.38%	26.80%	14.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.08%	0.07%	0.20%	0.26%	0.48%	0.94%	1.06%	1.89%	3.36%	4.77%	7.19%	11.92%	20.12%	20.85%	26.78%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	0.05%	0.02%	0.05%	0.17%	0.31%	0.50%	0.70%	1.50%	2.16%	3.76%	7.74%	14.03%	20.15%	48.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
St. Louis Rams	28.05%	21.36%	15.55%	10.02%	7.00%	5.97%	4.05%	2.67%	2.10%	1.25%	0.84%	0.64%	0.31%	0.17%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	22.84%	17.49%	13.80%	11.27%	9.06%	6.86%	5.44%	3.99%	3.00%	2.21%	1.81%	1.12%	0.56%	0.36%	0.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.14%	11.49%	11.70%	11.73%	10.28%	8.95%	7.96%	6.68%	5.68%	4.24%	3.31%	2.40%	1.25%	0.86%	0.33%
Washington Redskins	9.12%	11.64%	11.49%	11.24%	10.12%	9.86%	7.96%	7.28%	5.97%	5.12%	3.97%	3.00%	1.79%	1.01%	0.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.94%	10.62%	11.81%	10.29%	9.92%	9.37%	8.56%	7.86%	7.10%	5.03%	4.30%	3.32%	1.98%	1.32%	0.58%
New York Giants	6.45%	8.36%	10.12%	10.50%	9.94%	9.44%	9.38%	8.22%	7.08%	6.09%	5.33%	4.00%	2.45%	1.68%	0.96%
Carolina Panthers	3.48%	4.62%	6.05%	7.87%	9.42%	10.38%	9.55%	9.33%	9.31%	7.96%	6.67%	6.17%	4.62%	2.85%	1.72%
Green Bay Packers	2.73%	3.79%	4.75%	6.23%	7.71%	7.61%	8.82%	9.74%	9.43%	9.66%	9.05%	7.41%	5.88%	4.30%	2.89%
Detroit Lions	2.48%	3.98%	4.53%	6.29%	6.56%	7.49%	9.39%	9.73%	9.00%	9.46%	9.41%	8.18%	5.96%	4.44%	3.10%
New Orleans Saints	2.05%	3.19%	4.37%	5.72%	7.62%	9.11%	8.35%	9.24%	10.46%	9.03%	8.26%	7.70%	6.45%	4.68%	3.77%
Dallas Cowboys	0.98%	2.11%	3.10%	4.13%	5.26%	5.18%	7.26%	8.31%	9.00%	10.56%	11.19%	11.24%	9.01%	7.40%	5.27%
San Francisco 49ers	0.40%	0.64%	1.03%	2.00%	3.10%	4.17%	5.22%	6.60%	8.13%	9.04%	10.32%	11.85%	12.79%	12.33%	12.38%
Atlanta Falcons	0.20%	0.37%	0.80%	1.14%	2.01%	2.55%	3.28%	4.47%	5.93%	7.64%	10.07%	12.57%	14.85%	16.46%	17.66%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.18%	0.52%	0.82%	1.11%	1.61%	2.46%	3.15%	4.15%	6.27%	7.82%	10.64%	16.40%	20.57%	24.22%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.16%	0.38%	0.75%	0.89%	1.45%	2.32%	2.73%	3.66%	6.44%	7.65%	9.76%	15.70%	21.57%	26.48%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
Tennessee Titans	19.04%	14.01%	10.77%	8.55%	7.26%	5.68%	5.27%	4.18%	4.17%	3.14%	2.93%	2.18%	2.49%	2.08%	1.63%	1.08%	1.23%	0.91%	0.88%	0.60%	0.55%	0.46%	0.32%	0.21%	0.14%	0.19%	0.04%	—	0.01%	—	—
St. Louis Rams	13.54%	12.11%	10.69%	9.72%	7.30%	7.32%	5.46%	5.63%	3.62%	3.97%	3.39%	3.06%	2.09%	2.30%	1.71%	1.76%	1.09%	1.19%	0.84%	0.88%	0.46%	0.50%	0.39%	0.37%	0.26%	0.15%	0.11%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	—
Minnesota Vikings	10.17%	10.61%	8.43%	8.33%	6.75%	7.05%	5.34%	5.49%	4.45%	4.90%	3.61%	3.69%	2.73%	2.86%	2.54%	2.40%	1.73%	1.53%	1.45%	1.22%	1.08%	0.93%	0.63%	0.78%	0.33%	0.37%	0.26%	0.14%	0.08%	0.07%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	9.47%	8.71%	8.62%	7.46%	7.46%	6.33%	5.56%	5.16%	4.93%	4.24%	4.23%	3.55%	3.52%	3.04%	2.71%	2.11%	2.89%	2.04%	1.52%	1.48%	1.11%	0.98%	0.96%	0.61%	0.40%	0.32%	0.26%	0.11%	0.13%	0.08%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	5.39%	5.17%	6.28%	6.38%	6.20%	5.69%	5.71%	5.10%	5.50%	5.17%	4.88%	4.82%	4.09%	4.01%	3.75%	3.18%	3.16%	3.09%	2.11%	1.96%	1.83%	1.51%	1.38%	0.96%	0.84%	0.61%	0.57%	0.27%	0.23%	0.14%	0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	5.74%	5.53%	5.34%	4.79%	5.93%	5.46%	5.62%	5.02%	5.88%	5.08%	4.80%	4.47%	4.74%	3.96%	4.09%	3.33%	3.11%	3.05%	3.06%	2.18%	1.98%	1.67%	1.33%	1.06%	1.03%	0.57%	0.44%	0.32%	0.23%	0.11%	0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.11%	6.14%	5.15%	6.13%	5.74%	5.93%	4.99%	5.71%	4.84%	5.30%	4.45%	4.89%	3.71%	4.09%	3.38%	3.73%	3.04%	3.01%	2.58%	2.50%	1.90%	1.82%	1.57%	1.36%	0.78%	0.79%	0.56%	0.40%	0.22%	0.12%	0.06%
Washington Redskins	3.97%	4.25%	4.78%	5.48%	5.45%	5.19%	5.35%	5.30%	4.90%	5.01%	4.81%	5.05%	3.95%	4.14%	3.82%	4.46%	2.67%	3.40%	2.51%	3.02%	2.63%	2.35%	1.73%	1.87%	1.01%	1.11%	0.67%	0.60%	0.28%	0.21%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.57%	3.98%	4.37%	5.04%	4.84%	5.72%	4.77%	5.15%	4.29%	5.58%	4.27%	5.46%	3.66%	4.75%	3.62%	4.93%	3.32%	3.67%	2.97%	2.99%	2.37%	2.44%	1.93%	1.84%	1.21%	0.97%	0.80%	0.76%	0.40%	0.28%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts	3.83%	4.41%	5.11%	4.38%	5.17%	4.83%	5.17%	4.35%	5.40%	3.98%	4.79%	3.84%	5.01%	3.90%	4.01%	3.07%	4.09%	3.24%	3.59%	2.73%	3.24%	2.43%	2.45%	1.67%	1.67%	1.06%	1.01%	0.72%	0.50%	0.24%	0.11%
Miami Dolphins	3.79%	4.24%	4.63%	4.78%	5.16%	4.86%	5.02%	4.88%	4.87%	4.54%	4.87%	3.64%	4.67%	3.74%	4.37%	2.97%	4.05%	3.19%	3.49%	2.76%	3.17%	2.20%	2.65%	1.72%	1.90%	1.22%	1.08%	0.70%	0.54%	0.21%	0.09%
New York Giants	2.72%	2.96%	3.45%	4.11%	4.21%	5.02%	4.47%	5.16%	4.84%	5.19%	4.33%	5.12%	4.12%	4.76%	4.15%	4.46%	3.58%	4.03%	3.11%	3.56%	2.86%	3.01%	2.31%	2.34%	1.55%	1.56%	0.96%	0.91%	0.57%	0.42%	0.16%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.68%	2.90%	3.27%	3.26%	4.07%	3.92%	4.91%	4.82%	5.24%	4.60%	4.89%	4.50%	5.38%	4.68%	4.47%	4.30%	4.51%	4.01%	3.45%	3.67%	3.27%	3.10%	2.42%	1.77%	1.62%	1.39%	1.08%	0.79%	0.51%	0.34%	0.18%
New York Jets	2.01%	2.44%	2.89%	2.70%	3.45%	3.34%	4.38%	3.90%	4.27%	3.53%	4.48%	3.86%	5.05%	3.86%	4.72%	3.90%	5.03%	4.25%	4.71%	3.40%	4.28%	3.31%	3.42%	2.79%	2.89%	2.14%	1.86%	1.41%	0.94%	0.57%	0.22%
Buffalo Bills	2.03%	2.12%	3.05%	2.97%	3.53%	3.42%	4.15%	3.76%	4.29%	3.47%	4.41%	3.91%	4.99%	4.12%	4.21%	4.02%	4.63%	4.03%	4.10%	3.60%	4.54%	3.57%	3.67%	3.19%	3.26%	2.12%	1.85%	1.24%	1.09%	0.37%	0.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.73%	2.14%	2.57%	2.85%	3.19%	3.25%	3.73%	3.73%	4.14%	3.60%	4.67%	4.21%	5.12%	4.38%	4.86%	4.06%	5.41%	4.28%	4.61%	3.70%	4.13%	3.54%	3.59%	2.72%	2.57%	2.13%	1.89%	1.26%	1.05%	0.60%	0.29%
Carolina Panthers	1.07%	1.73%	1.85%	2.66%	2.24%	3.12%	3.00%	4.02%	3.43%	4.56%	4.44%	5.19%	4.03%	5.03%	4.77%	5.60%	4.26%	4.56%	4.12%	4.74%	3.86%	3.71%	3.50%	3.65%	2.61%	2.42%	1.98%	1.56%	1.13%	0.93%	0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.10%	1.46%	1.78%	1.94%	2.29%	2.22%	3.36%	3.16%	3.69%	3.09%	3.82%	3.46%	4.75%	4.30%	4.69%	4.00%	5.30%	4.54%	5.35%	4.62%	5.14%	4.63%	4.66%	3.75%	3.05%	2.61%	2.53%	1.60%	1.42%	0.87%	0.82%
Green Bay Packers	0.89%	1.19%	1.67%	2.15%	1.97%	2.19%	2.73%	2.65%	3.41%	3.79%	3.58%	4.08%	3.66%	4.44%	4.17%	5.25%	4.42%	4.86%	4.37%	5.22%	4.58%	5.04%	3.85%	4.58%	3.22%	3.36%	2.63%	2.44%	1.54%	1.50%	0.57%
Detroit Lions	0.72%	1.18%	1.67%	2.02%	1.97%	2.22%	2.78%	2.84%	2.78%	3.44%	3.21%	3.91%	4.02%	4.37%	4.55%	5.22%	4.14%	4.97%	4.40%	5.15%	4.38%	4.99%	4.27%	4.66%	3.77%	3.23%	2.89%	2.31%	1.75%	1.62%	0.57%
New Orleans Saints	0.66%	1.02%	1.29%	1.41%	1.86%	2.22%	2.16%	2.94%	2.79%	4.07%	3.48%	4.30%	3.27%	4.86%	4.12%	5.04%	4.34%	5.24%	4.33%	5.32%	4.24%	4.91%	4.06%	4.38%	3.82%	3.88%	2.85%	2.54%	1.79%	2.12%	0.69%
Dallas Cowboys	0.27%	0.51%	0.61%	1.06%	0.98%	1.67%	1.46%	2.03%	1.94%	2.59%	2.78%	2.55%	2.57%	3.63%	3.92%	4.35%	4.07%	4.53%	4.70%	5.91%	4.94%	5.59%	5.36%	6.41%	4.95%	5.15%	4.39%	4.14%	3.05%	2.73%	1.16%
New England Patriots	0.18%	0.26%	0.66%	0.54%	0.88%	1.09%	1.39%	1.33%	1.84%	1.64%	2.22%	2.09%	3.11%	2.73%	3.27%	2.83%	3.80%	4.27%	5.07%	4.06%	5.59%	5.37%	6.14%	5.27%	7.25%	6.25%	6.32%	4.95%	4.64%	2.94%	2.02%
Seattle Seahawks	0.21%	0.47%	0.68%	0.60%	1.06%	0.83%	1.22%	1.11%	1.65%	1.51%	2.39%	2.31%	3.21%	2.30%	3.37%	2.78%	4.27%	3.88%	5.16%	4.49%	5.77%	5.28%	6.71%	5.78%	6.19%	5.91%	5.39%	4.82%	4.92%	3.56%	2.17%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.26%	0.18%	0.30%	0.34%	0.49%	0.80%	0.91%	1.00%	1.59%	1.35%	2.27%	1.72%	2.52%	2.87%	3.37%	3.44%	4.15%	4.09%	4.95%	4.27%	5.26%	5.28%	6.62%	6.33%	6.97%	6.14%	6.85%	6.01%	6.39%	3.21%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%	0.10%	0.06%	0.15%	0.24%	0.35%	0.41%	0.62%	0.64%	0.90%	0.88%	1.13%	1.15%	1.65%	1.92%	2.28%	2.21%	2.89%	3.40%	3.85%	4.04%	5.40%	4.96%	7.13%	6.27%	8.21%	7.23%	9.39%	7.84%	9.52%	5.15%
Arizona Cardinals	—	0.03%	0.07%	0.09%	0.14%	0.20%	0.24%	0.41%	0.34%	0.61%	0.48%	0.86%	0.89%	1.05%	1.17%	1.68%	1.42%	2.42%	2.40%	3.20%	3.13%	4.14%	4.64%	5.96%	6.37%	8.39%	8.60%	11.07%	9.65%	12.29%	8.06%
Chicago Bears	—	0.03%	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.23%	0.21%	0.29%	0.35%	0.42%	0.56%	0.63%	0.69%	1.05%	1.26%	1.47%	1.46%	1.68%	2.54%	3.09%	3.15%	3.91%	4.27%	5.51%	6.42%	8.21%	8.31%	11.28%	10.50%	13.86%	8.41%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.10%	0.20%	0.22%	0.34%	0.30%	0.68%	0.59%	0.85%	0.75%	1.01%	1.19%	1.64%	1.53%	2.25%	2.37%	3.52%	3.17%	5.12%	4.77%	7.14%	7.22%	9.58%	9.56%	13.20%	11.96%	10.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0.02%	—	0.04%	0.09%	0.05%	0.11%	0.10%	0.14%	0.17%	0.22%	0.29%	0.59%	0.47%	0.57%	0.85%	1.26%	1.16%	1.96%	1.95%	2.79%	3.21%	4.32%	3.92%	6.74%	6.63%	10.07%	9.72%	13.11%	10.93%	18.52%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.10%	0.09%	0.17%	0.18%	0.30%	0.33%	0.43%	0.40%	0.88%	0.83%	1.20%	1.57%	2.11%	2.35%	4.41%	4.86%	7.65%	8.08%	12.65%	15.01%	36.26%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Tennessee Titans	30.33%	18.12%	9.55%	12.72%	8.73%	5.57%	14.98%
Oakland Raiders	15.93%	16.51%	14.64%	8.96%	9.28%	7.86%	26.82%
Baltimore Ravens	10.46%	6.88%	4.11%	15.59%	11.92%	10.01%	41.03%
Denver Broncos	9.41%	11.72%	12.30%	9.58%	10.28%	10.03%	36.68%
Indianapolis Colts	7.02%	9.67%	12.35%	7.31%	8.28%	7.87%	47.50%
Miami Dolphins	6.84%	9.62%	12.91%	6.92%	7.55%	8.64%	47.52%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.19%	4.85%	3.21%	11.26%	10.30%	9.88%	55.31%
New York Jets	4.06%	5.97%	8.52%	5.43%	7.01%	7.27%	61.74%
Buffalo Bills	3.77%	5.72%	9.02%	5.48%	6.61%	7.62%	61.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.49%	5.44%	6.13%	6.04%	7.13%	8.76%	63.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.40%	2.65%	2.02%	6.87%	6.59%	7.16%	72.31%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	1.34%	1.78%	1.84%	2.86%	3.75%	87.82%
New England Patriots	0.42%	1.29%	2.82%	1.63%	2.62%	3.94%	87.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.13%	0.53%	0.18%	0.51%	1.03%	97.58%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.18%	0.27%	0.45%	98.92%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.06%	0.16%	99.72%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
St. Louis Rams	28.05%	22.66%	20.29%	5.83%	5.89%	5.44%	11.84%
Minnesota Vikings	22.84%	16.47%	10.99%	14.28%	9.66%	6.97%	18.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.14%	10.28%	7.16%	16.01%	11.30%	9.27%	32.84%
Washington Redskins	9.12%	12.11%	13.77%	9.34%	9.67%	9.50%	36.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.94%	10.84%	11.89%	10.08%	9.77%	9.38%	40.10%
New York Giants	6.45%	8.76%	10.97%	9.16%	9.97%	9.49%	45.20%
Carolina Panthers	3.48%	4.70%	6.38%	7.70%	9.44%	10.26%	58.04%
Green Bay Packers	2.73%	3.43%	3.22%	7.31%	8.06%	7.98%	67.27%
Detroit Lions	2.48%	3.70%	2.90%	7.37%	6.85%	7.88%	68.82%
New Orleans Saints	2.05%	3.35%	4.87%	5.45%	7.48%	8.97%	67.83%
Dallas Cowboys	0.98%	2.19%	3.87%	3.59%	4.90%	5.18%	79.29%
San Francisco 49ers	0.40%	0.70%	1.33%	1.63%	3.12%	4.22%	88.60%
Atlanta Falcons	0.20%	0.41%	1.13%	0.95%	1.96%	2.46%	92.89%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.23%	0.80%	0.62%	1.03%	1.55%	95.69%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.17%	0.43%	0.68%	0.90%	1.45%	96.31%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Tennessee Titans	72.66%	72.66%	45.90%	27.65%	17.42%
Oakland Raiders	58.16%	58.16%	34.90%	19.59%	11.92%
St. Louis Rams	73.55%	73.55%	42.43%	23.00%	10.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51.34%	51.34%	31.27%	18.77%	9.23%
Minnesota Vikings	62.73%	62.73%	32.82%	16.18%	6.72%
Indianapolis Colts	38.23%	38.23%	20.71%	11.00%	6.43%
Baltimore Ravens	41.63%	40.34%	20.31%	9.96%	5.74%
Denver Broncos	43.54%	43.54%	21.02%	9.72%	5.39%
Miami Dolphins	36.03%	36.03%	17.75%	8.13%	4.58%
New York Giants	39.59%	37.27%	18.79%	9.30%	4.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	41.12%	40.55%	19.79%	9.55%	4.00%
Washington Redskins	42.28%	40.98%	17.02%	7.22%	2.52%
Green Bay Packers	26.57%	20.13%	9.99%	4.99%	2.03%
New York Jets	28.23%	22.85%	9.24%	3.68%	1.72%
Buffalo Bills	28.73%	21.19%	7.77%	2.62%	1.30%
Jacksonville Jaguars	34.65%	22.87%	7.95%	2.93%	1.29%
Carolina Panthers	33.78%	22.03%	8.46%	3.47%	1.19%
Detroit Lions	25.00%	17.51%	7.57%	3.13%	1.08%
New Orleans Saints	26.77%	16.43%	6.78%	2.81%	1.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.64%	14.65%	5.65%	2.01%	0.86%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.06%	18.71%	6.17%	2.06%	0.78%
Dallas Cowboys	17.54%	9.11%	2.82%	0.87%	0.22%
San Francisco 49ers	10.30%	4.21%	1.46%	0.47%	0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	10.23%	5.11%	1.33%	0.40%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	6.50%	2.11%	0.41%	0.12%	0.04%
New England Patriots	11.01%	4.66%	1.14%	0.24%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	3.46%	1.12%	0.25%	0.09%	0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	4.00%	0.93%	0.14%	0.03%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	2.25%	0.58%	0.12%	0.01%	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0.98%	0.39%	0.04%	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0.26%	0.03%	—	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.27%	0.01%	0.05%	2.91%	2.13%	2.11%	2.30%	2.20%	1.02%	1.99%	2.44%	1.02%	0.18%	0.89%	1.48%
Buffalo Bills	1.25%		0.13%	0.02%	1.15%	0.73%	1.41%	1.12%	1.24%	0.48%	0.81%	1.06%	0.90%	0.12%	0.52%	0.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.03%			0.05%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%		0.04%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns		0.01%
Denver Broncos	2.72%	1.78%	0.07%			1.59%	2.96%	2.13%	1.95%	0.83%	1.57%	2.16%	1.91%	0.23%	0.73%	1.78%
Indianapolis Colts	2.53%	1.64%	0.08%	0.07%	1.96%		2.85%	1.91%	2.14%	0.92%	1.71%	1.60%	1.54%	0.15%	0.78%	1.66%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.06%	1.34%	0.03%		1.66%	1.16%		1.48%	1.12%	0.59%	1.10%	1.19%	0.67%	0.12%	0.49%	0.82%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.91%	1.10%	0.10%	0.03%	0.91%	0.69%	1.07%		1.00%	0.38%	1.00%	0.86%	0.69%	0.07%	0.32%	0.65%
Miami Dolphins	2.06%	1.91%	0.05%	0.02%	1.96%	1.73%	2.49%	1.74%		0.77%	1.63%	1.41%	1.49%	0.17%	0.74%	1.40%
New England Patriots	0.34%	0.24%		0.01%	0.32%	0.12%	0.46%	0.19%	0.21%		0.22%	0.24%	0.20%	0.04%	0.20%	0.16%
New York Jets	1.56%	1.10%	0.04%		1.26%	0.90%	1.47%	1.23%	1.17%	0.53%		0.87%	1.08%	0.15%	0.51%	0.95%
Oakland Raiders	3.00%	2.15%	0.09%	0.01%	3.35%	1.98%	3.27%	2.38%	1.91%	0.98%	1.95%		1.82%	0.23%	0.78%	1.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.73%	0.94%	0.03%		1.22%	0.79%	0.76%	1.04%	0.92%	0.43%	0.94%	0.79%		0.13%	0.27%	0.61%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.02%			0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.08%	0.01%	0.03%		0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.33%	0.29%	0.02%	0.01%	0.18%	0.26%	0.44%	0.23%	0.27%	0.16%	0.22%	0.23%	0.23%	0.04%		0.25%
Tennessee Titans	2.09%	2.21%	0.04%	0.03%	2.81%	2.14%	2.49%	2.44%	2.26%	0.94%	2.15%	2.16%	1.46%	0.20%	0.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%	0.03%		0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	0.11%	0.04%	0.05%	0.08%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%
Atlanta Falcons	0.05%		0.06%	0.04%	0.11%	0.16%	0.12%	0.18%	0.05%	0.11%	0.20%		0.17%	0.12%	0.13%
Carolina Panthers	0.36%	0.26%		0.28%	0.80%	1.09%	0.92%	1.55%	0.72%	1.24%	1.49%	0.29%	1.53%	1.32%	2.00%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%		0.07%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.04%	0.11%	0.06%	0.05%	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%
Dallas Cowboys	0.08%	0.24%	0.48%	0.08%		0.67%	0.43%	0.66%	0.49%	0.40%	0.60%	0.16%	0.35%	0.62%	0.68%
Detroit Lions	0.26%	0.29%	1.26%	0.10%	0.63%		0.49%	1.22%	0.94%	1.13%	1.21%	0.56%	1.06%	0.71%	1.47%
Green Bay Packers	0.29%	0.27%	1.44%	0.13%	0.99%	0.46%		1.35%	1.16%	1.65%	1.56%	0.39%	1.29%	1.21%	1.78%
Minnesota Vikings	0.32%	0.57%	2.84%	0.24%	1.25%	1.79%	1.71%		2.17%	2.44%	2.53%	1.04%	1.74%	1.80%	2.98%
New Orleans Saints	0.18%	0.18%	0.92%	0.12%	0.80%	0.76%	0.91%	1.29%		0.95%	1.15%	0.18%	1.18%	1.13%	1.28%
New York Giants	0.27%	0.53%	2.18%	0.25%	1.21%	1.76%	1.69%	2.51%	1.65%		2.30%	0.82%	1.59%	2.29%	3.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.35%	0.47%	2.28%	0.32%	1.24%	1.88%	1.53%	2.44%	1.61%	2.26%		0.85%	1.54%	2.15%	2.85%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	0.01%	0.18%	0.10%	0.26%	0.19%	0.24%	0.36%	0.13%	0.25%	0.32%		0.35%	0.35%	0.33%
St. Louis Rams	0.40%	0.75%	2.81%	0.37%	1.30%	1.72%	1.69%	1.86%	2.70%	1.98%	1.97%	1.12%		2.02%	2.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.41%	0.74%	3.23%	0.20%	1.71%	1.53%	1.58%	2.60%	2.51%	2.95%	3.44%	0.91%	2.44%		3.67%
Washington Redskins	0.33%	0.61%	2.11%	0.34%	1.21%	1.58%	1.22%	2.27%	1.53%	2.01%	2.44%	0.78%	1.33%	1.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.45%	0.02%	0.01%	2.27%	1.93%	1.24%	1.22%	2.01%	0.35%	1.16%	2.61%	0.75%	0.03%	0.35%	4.91%
Buffalo Bills	0.70%		0.01%		1.14%	0.60%	0.62%	0.66%	0.57%	0.09%	0.52%	1.06%	0.36%		0.19%	1.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%							0.01%				0.01%			0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.90%	1.83%	0.05%	0.01%		2.44%	1.53%	1.15%	2.46%	0.44%	1.53%	3.27%	0.93%	0.02%	0.29%	3.17%
Indianapolis Colts	2.20%	1.20%	0.04%		2.82%		1.55%	1.64%	1.68%	0.26%	0.96%	3.36%	0.89%	0.08%	0.49%	3.54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.68%	0.61%	0.02%		0.87%	0.58%		0.49%	0.52%	0.14%	0.68%	1.11%	0.36%	0.01%	0.13%	1.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.56%	0.48%	0.02%		0.55%	0.60%	0.58%		0.68%	0.13%	0.58%	0.73%	0.32%	0.01%	0.07%	0.86%
Miami Dolphins	1.77%	0.89%	0.04%		2.66%	1.54%	1.30%	1.33%		0.17%	0.93%	2.95%	0.88%	0.03%	0.42%	2.84%
New England Patriots	0.14%	0.06%			0.13%	0.06%	0.12%	0.05%	0.05%		0.05%	0.19%	0.06%		0.02%	0.21%
New York Jets	0.79%	0.48%			1.10%	0.65%	0.87%	0.78%	0.70%	0.16%		1.37%	0.36%	0.05%	0.22%	1.71%
Oakland Raiders	3.72%	2.68%	0.03%	0.01%	5.02%	3.83%	2.37%	2.01%	4.20%	0.74%	3.15%		1.45%	0.05%	0.62%	5.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.43%	0.43%			0.66%	0.47%	0.29%	0.36%	0.54%	0.10%	0.39%	0.62%		0.01%	0.13%	1.22%
San Diego Chargers					0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.04%		0.01%	0.01%				0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	0.15%	0.09%			0.07%	0.15%	0.05%	0.03%	0.16%	0.03%	0.19%	0.11%	0.03%	0.01%		0.26%
Tennessee Titans	6.98%	3.22%	0.12%		5.22%	4.66%	4.38%	2.81%	4.67%	0.91%	3.46%	5.86%	2.61%	0.16%	0.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals					0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%			0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%		0.01%		0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%		0.10%	0.06%	0.07%
Carolina Panthers	0.06%	0.01%		0.04%	0.29%	0.32%	0.37%	1.41%	0.25%	0.86%	1.00%	0.08%	1.72%	0.93%	1.12%
Chicago Bears		0.01%			0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%		0.06%	0.04%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys		0.03%	0.25%	0.05%		0.08%	0.16%	0.49%	0.12%	0.05%	0.25%	0.04%	0.59%	0.40%	0.31%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.10%	0.53%	0.01%	0.26%		0.24%	1.41%	0.27%	0.78%	0.68%	0.07%	1.55%	0.76%	0.89%
Green Bay Packers	0.05%	0.08%	0.61%	0.01%	0.27%	0.26%		1.68%	0.36%	1.15%	1.04%	0.09%	2.04%	0.97%	1.38%
Minnesota Vikings	0.10%	0.33%	2.21%	0.11%	1.07%	1.86%	2.32%		1.62%	3.57%	3.71%	0.51%	5.07%	5.38%	4.96%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.02%	0.30%		0.25%	0.28%	0.21%	1.16%		0.57%	0.89%	0.04%	1.46%	0.73%	0.85%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.17%	1.38%	0.07%	0.49%	0.86%	0.96%	3.14%	0.93%		1.93%	0.20%	4.32%	2.01%	2.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.17%	1.50%	0.08%	0.46%	1.27%	1.01%	3.83%	0.91%	1.60%		0.28%	4.35%	2.06%	2.25%
San Francisco 49ers			0.06%		0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.28%	0.03%	0.17%	0.21%		0.31%	0.12%	0.19%
St. Louis Rams	0.21%	0.33%	3.49%	0.26%	1.81%	2.46%	2.54%	6.28%	2.57%	5.07%	5.79%	0.74%		4.91%	5.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.18%	0.26%	2.09%	0.17%	0.76%	1.63%	1.43%	7.17%	1.49%	2.94%	3.25%	0.44%	5.84%		3.62%
Washington Redskins	0.10%	0.19%	1.14%	0.07%	0.56%	0.85%	0.83%	2.96%	1.07%	1.69%	1.95%	0.26%	3.67%	1.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.50%		1.36%	1.12%	0.43%	0.45%	1.27%	0.10%	0.61%	2.03%	0.21%	0.02%	0.12%	1.74%
Buffalo Bills	0.36%			0.26%	0.27%	0.11%	0.09%	0.08%	0.02%	0.10%	0.45%	0.12%	0.01%	0.02%	0.73%
Denver Broncos	1.29%	0.59%			1.18%	0.60%	0.29%	0.98%	0.06%	0.50%	1.10%	0.44%	0.01%	0.06%	2.62%
Indianapolis Colts	1.35%	0.46%	0.01%	1.40%		0.66%	0.43%	0.86%	0.06%	0.45%	1.95%	0.44%	0.01%	0.09%	2.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.21%	0.18%		0.41%	0.33%		0.12%	0.38%	0.02%	0.19%	0.59%	0.03%		0.03%	0.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.35%	0.07%		0.12%	0.22%	0.14%		0.15%	0.01%	0.12%	0.23%	0.13%		0.02%	0.50%
Miami Dolphins	1.12%	0.37%	0.01%	0.83%	0.46%	0.47%	0.38%		0.05%	0.29%	1.63%	0.41%	0.01%	0.03%	2.07%
New England Patriots				0.02%	0.07%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%			0.09%
New York Jets	0.49%	0.11%		0.55%	0.22%	0.21%	0.23%	0.20%	0.02%		0.64%	0.13%	0.01%	0.01%	0.86%
Oakland Raiders	2.53%	1.05%		1.74%	1.88%	1.32%	0.60%	1.91%	0.22%	1.33%		0.90%	0.01%	0.15%	5.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.17%	0.08%		0.25%	0.22%	0.08%	0.06%	0.33%	0.03%	0.09%	0.34%			0.06%	0.30%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.04%		0.02%	0.03%	0.01%		0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.02%			0.12%
Tennessee Titans	2.44%	1.70%	0.02%	4.34%	3.71%	0.98%	1.46%	3.42%	0.30%	1.84%	6.27%	0.80%	0.03%	0.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals								0.01%	0.01%				0.01%
Atlanta Falcons					0.01%		0.01%	0.02%		0.01%	0.03%		0.01%		0.03%
Carolina Panthers				0.01%	0.08%	0.19%	0.22%	0.78%	0.10%	0.38%	0.38%	0.01%	0.37%	0.61%	0.34%
Chicago Bears						0.01%		0.02%		0.01%			0.02%		0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			0.04%	0.01%		0.06%	0.02%	0.14%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	0.25%	0.13%	0.07%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.26%		0.10%		0.08%	0.45%	0.14%	0.34%	0.31%	0.05%	0.75%	0.36%	0.28%
Green Bay Packers			0.30%		0.09%	0.14%		0.69%	0.31%	0.43%	0.58%	0.03%	1.30%	0.52%	0.60%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.08%	0.91%	0.01%	0.29%	0.54%	0.84%		0.71%	2.00%	2.22%	0.25%	4.49%	2.08%	1.74%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%	0.09%	0.01%	0.09%	0.12%	0.15%	0.66%		0.30%	0.24%	0.03%	0.38%	0.41%	0.32%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.02%	0.45%	0.03%	0.09%	0.38%	0.50%	1.96%	0.39%		0.80%	0.12%	2.47%	1.45%	0.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.02%	0.49%	0.03%	0.14%	0.55%	0.47%	1.98%	0.35%	0.74%		0.07%	2.37%	1.64%	0.69%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%			0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.11%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%		0.05%	0.06%	0.07%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%	0.05%	1.09%	0.05%	0.53%	1.40%	1.39%	5.50%	0.60%	2.40%	2.86%	0.16%		4.04%	2.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.06%	1.02%		0.43%	0.68%	0.84%	2.71%	0.96%	2.30%	2.21%	0.19%	5.24%		2.10%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.03%	0.34%	0.01%	0.09%	0.32%	0.46%	1.61%	0.34%	0.50%	0.52%	0.07%	1.72%	1.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals																				0.01%
Atlanta Falcons													0.01%							0.02%		0.01%
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%			0.23%		0.08%		0.24%	0.24%					0.86%		0.17%	0.60%			0.45%			0.04%		1.46%	0.91%		0.45%
Buffalo Bills					0.10%	0.02%	0.03%		0.04%	0.05%					0.18%		0.02%	0.12%			0.13%					0.22%	0.26%		0.13%
Carolina Panthers			0.08%	0.06%				0.13%			0.14%	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%					0.09%	0.20%		0.03%						0.26%
Chicago Bears																				0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.01%	0.01%				0.01%			0.04%	0.01%		0.01%						0.07%		0.01%						0.05%
Denver Broncos		0.02%			0.21%	0.02%	0.09%		0.24%	0.24%					0.81%		0.17%	0.42%			0.55%			0.05%		1.13%	1.04%		0.40%
Detroit Lions			0.16%	0.01%				0.15%			0.09%	0.08%	0.02%	0.05%					0.02%	0.21%		0.05%			0.01%			0.23%
Green Bay Packers			0.19%	0.09%				0.31%			0.20%	0.06%	0.04%	0.18%		0.01%			0.06%	0.35%		0.07%			0.02%			0.45%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%			0.23%		0.04%		0.18%	0.34%					1.29%		0.14%	0.56%			0.65%			0.03%		1.37%	1.16%		0.43%
Jacksonville Jaguars					0.05%				0.03%	0.07%					0.21%		0.03%	0.11%			0.13%			0.01%		0.33%	0.21%		0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs					0.03%				0.02%						0.11%		0.01%	0.11%			0.09%					0.19%	0.16%		0.06%
Miami Dolphins					0.22%	0.01%	0.06%		0.15%	0.28%					0.71%		0.20%	0.38%			0.41%			0.04%		0.99%	0.74%		0.39%
Minnesota Vikings			0.71%	0.16%				0.65%			0.82%	0.29%	0.25%	0.64%		0.03%			0.34%	1.09%		0.14%	0.01%		0.05%			1.54%
New England Patriots															0.04%
New Orleans Saints			0.16%	0.02%				0.08%			0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%		0.03%			0.03%	0.20%		0.03%						0.27%
New York Giants			0.49%	0.11%				0.47%			0.42%	0.13%	0.14%	0.32%					0.14%	0.83%		0.15%			0.03%			0.86%
New York Jets					0.09%		0.05%		0.04%	0.05%					0.27%		0.05%	0.14%			0.15%			0.02%		0.41%	0.27%		0.18%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.03%			0.43%	0.01%	0.09%		0.45%	0.73%					2.03%		0.31%	1.02%			1.21%			0.04%		2.69%	1.89%		0.98%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.37%	0.15%				0.41%			0.41%	0.16%	0.07%	0.41%		0.05%			0.16%	0.68%		0.10%			0.05%			0.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers					0.01%		0.04%		0.01%	0.08%					0.13%		0.03%	0.08%			0.03%			0.01%		0.23%	0.13%		0.08%
San Francisco 49ers			0.03%	0.01%				0.01%			0.02%									0.04%								0.03%
Seattle Seahawks					0.01%					0.01%					0.01%		0.01%	0.01%			0.03%					0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
St. Louis Rams			0.89%	0.39%				0.99%			1.03%	0.41%	0.29%	0.77%		0.06%			0.50%	1.81%		0.29%			0.04%			2.60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.83%	0.24%				0.78%			1.03%	0.35%	0.34%	0.72%		0.02%			0.50%	1.74%		0.22%			0.07%			2.39%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.01%			0.67%	0.02%	0.17%		0.65%	0.87%					2.81%		0.60%	1.66%			1.72%			0.09%		3.90%	2.76%		1.48%
Washington Redskins			0.30%	0.07%				0.34%			0.28%	0.07%	0.04%	0.25%					0.12%	0.41%		0.05%			0.02%			0.57%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Tennessee Titans	100.00%	58.46%	34.32%	20.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	100.00%	60.84%	29.24%	17.47%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Giants	100.00%	49.29%	27.75%	10.60%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	53.63%	23.88%	8.98%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	54.70%	30.14%	17.40%	8.61%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Baltimore Ravens	57.69%	22.92%	10.53%	6.07%	Won Super Bowl
St. Louis Rams	57.56%	29.05%	13.64%	6.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	49.33%	21.68%	9.88%	5.83%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	50.67%	19.32%	8.63%	4.82%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	45.30%	21.25%	10.63%	4.60%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	42.31%	16.78%	7.40%	4.18%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New Orleans Saints	42.44%	16.64%	6.70%	2.33%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens		57.69%
Denver Broncos	42.31%
Indianapolis Colts				49.33%
Miami Dolphins			50.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints			42.44%
Philadelphia Eagles				45.30%
St. Louis Rams	57.56%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		54.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens					11.46%	11.46%
Denver Broncos					8.38%	8.40%
Indianapolis Colts						21.68%
Miami Dolphins					19.32%
Oakland Raiders	17.40%	12.09%		31.35%
Tennessee Titans	17.37%	13.44%	27.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings		25.80%		13.78%		14.05%
New Orleans Saints	16.64%
New York Giants				10.27%	28.51%	10.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.71%		8.54%
St. Louis Rams			29.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.02%		13.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens			2.79%	2.02%	3.20%	2.52%
Denver Broncos			2.11%	1.31%	2.21%	1.77%
Indianapolis Colts	2.50%	1.78%			5.60%
Miami Dolphins	2.45%	1.91%				4.27%
Oakland Raiders	3.79%	2.97%	6.90%			15.58%
Tennessee Titans	3.65%	2.72%		7.36%	20.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings			11.00%	2.55%	6.70%	3.63%
New Orleans Saints			2.98%	1.63%		2.09%
New York Giants	15.51%	5.10%		3.63%		3.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.60%	1.76%	2.95%		3.32%
St. Louis Rams	7.32%			2.81%		3.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.32%	3.08%	4.61%		5.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens					1.71%	0.33%	1.63%		0.62%	0.87%	0.91%
Denver Broncos					1.12%	0.29%	1.29%		0.44%	0.53%	0.51%
Indianapolis Colts					1.50%	0.38%	1.82%		0.49%	0.73%	0.91%
Miami Dolphins					1.14%	0.43%	1.43%		0.54%	0.54%	0.74%
Minnesota Vikings	1.00%	0.65%	0.83%	0.89%				2.73%				2.88%
New Orleans Saints	0.19%	0.21%	0.30%	0.35%				0.64%				0.64%
New York Giants	1.13%	0.91%	1.00%	0.99%				3.05%				3.52%
Oakland Raiders					4.28%	1.47%	5.14%		1.66%	2.30%	2.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.48%	0.36%	0.44%	0.47%				1.23%				1.62%
St. Louis Rams	0.71%	0.54%	0.62%	0.49%				1.68%				1.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.95%	0.55%	0.86%	0.62%				2.44%				3.19%
Tennessee Titans					5.15%	1.47%	5.84%		2.28%	2.67%	3.10%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Tennessee Titans 20.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

47.30%

Win Prob

56.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

59.99%

Win Prob

56.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

28.47%

Win Prob

62.39%

Oakland Raiders 17.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

51.53%

Win Prob

61.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

53.28%

Win Prob

43.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

29.42%

Win Prob

62.76%

New York Giants 10.60% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

57.84%

Win Prob

49.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.89%

Win Prob

58.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

33.21%

Win Prob

37.61%

Minnesota Vikings 8.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

48.11%

Win Prob

60.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

46.06%

Win Prob

41.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

32.07%

Win Prob

35.87%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.70%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.47%

Win Prob

54.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

30.98%

Win Prob

60.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

37.05%

Win Prob

50.72%

Baltimore Ravens 6.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.69%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

50.00%

Win Prob

39.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

30.39%

Win Prob

45.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

28.17%

Win Prob

63.10%

St. Louis Rams 6.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

53.67%

Win Prob

52.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

32.67%

Win Prob

42.33%

Indianapolis Colts 5.83% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

56.68%

Win Prob

44.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

31.22%

Win Prob

64.54%

Miami Dolphins 4.82% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

49.48%

Win Prob

36.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

29.67%

Win Prob

59.09%

Philadelphia Eagles 4.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.30%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

59.81%

Win Prob

47.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

31.23%

Win Prob

54.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

35.22%

Win Prob

41.54%

Denver Broncos 4.18% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

50.06%

Win Prob

38.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

29.86%

Win Prob

42.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

30.86%

Win Prob

58.64%

New Orleans Saints 2.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

44.48%

Win Prob

36.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

27.47%

Win Prob

30.33%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2000-09-03	@ New York Giants	L 16-21	1429.48	1466.36	39.08%	60.67%	-11.79	0-1
2000-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 32-31	1417.69	1469.33	48.11%	51.64%	+6.96	1-1
2000-09-24	Green Bay Packers	L 3-29	1424.65	1503.59	44.21%	55.54%	-30.40	1-2
2000-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1394.25	1412.18	41.71%	58.05%	-14.89	1-3
2000-10-08	Cleveland Browns	W 29-21	1379.36	1343.95	60.47%	39.28%	+14.99	2-3
2000-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-33	1394.35	1501.81	40.21%	59.54%	-23.64	2-4
2000-10-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-48	1370.71	1447.53	33.76%	65.99%	-29.17	2-5
2000-10-29	New Orleans Saints	L 10-21	1341.54	1454.78	39.41%	60.34%	-17.64	2-6
2000-11-05	Washington Redskins	W 16-15	1323.90	1582.20	22.01%	77.74%	+10.48	3-6
2000-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-31	1334.38	1587.48	15.60%	84.16%	-8.68	3-7
2000-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-34	1325.70	1527.89	19.85%	79.90%	-13.41	3-8
2000-11-26	New York Giants	L 7-31	1312.29	1503.93	29.29%	70.46%	-19.36	3-9
2000-12-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-24	1292.93	1298.59	43.43%	56.32%	-19.43	3-10
2000-12-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-44	1273.50	1516.61	16.37%	83.39%	-12.89	3-11
2000-12-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-13	1260.61	1594.66	15.43%	84.32%	-5.10	3-12
2000-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-20	1255.51	1506.26	15.77%	83.98%	-8.79	3-13
2000-09-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 36-28	1464.32	1420.11	61.67%	38.08%	+14.53	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-42	1478.85	1512.47	39.53%	60.23%	-28.21	1-1
2000-09-17	@ Carolina Panthers	W 15-10	1450.64	1509.45	36.12%	63.63%	+19.18	2-1
2000-09-24	St. Louis Rams	L 20-41	1469.82	1644.49	31.35%	68.40%	-19.39	2-2
2000-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-38	1450.43	1485.66	39.30%	60.45%	-28.06	2-3
2000-10-08	New York Giants	L 6-13	1422.37	1483.05	46.82%	52.94%	-16.70	2-4
2000-10-15	@ St. Louis Rams	L 29-45	1405.67	1674.65	14.43%	85.32%	-7.80	2-5
2000-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 19-21	1397.87	1445.49	48.69%	51.06%	-9.29	2-6
2000-10-29	Carolina Panthers	W 13-12	1388.58	1493.30	40.59%	59.16%	+7.98	3-6
2000-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-27	1396.56	1583.16	29.89%	69.86%	-14.55	3-7
2000-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1382.01	1492.80	29.54%	70.22%	-6.90	3-8
2000-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-16	1375.11	1396.65	41.20%	58.55%	-17.58	3-9
2000-11-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-41	1357.53	1632.84	13.99%	85.77%	-9.81	3-10
2000-12-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-30	1347.72	1431.19	43.57%	56.18%	-26.28	3-11
2000-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-23	1321.44	1511.41	20.99%	78.76%	-11.34	3-12
2000-12-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-13	1310.10	1521.66	26.97%	72.78%	+39.23	4-12
2000-09-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-0	1503.61	1471.38	48.85%	50.91%	+27.45	1-0
2000-09-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 39-36	1531.06	1585.96	47.65%	52.11%	+12.17	2-0
2000-09-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-19	1543.23	1516.85	48.01%	51.75%	-23.34	2-1
2000-09-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-0	1519.89	1362.87	75.44%	24.31%	+19.97	3-1
2000-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 12-0	1539.86	1358.21	69.26%	30.49%	+14.25	4-1
2000-10-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 15-10	1554.11	1515.73	49.73%	50.02%	+15.09	5-1
2000-10-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-10	1569.20	1557.06	45.96%	53.79%	-16.40	5-2
2000-10-22	Tennessee Titans	L 6-14	1552.80	1620.31	45.84%	53.92%	-17.49	5-3
2000-10-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-9	1535.31	1520.70	57.58%	42.17%	-13.44	5-4
2000-11-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-7	1521.87	1361.50	66.60%	33.15%	+20.00	6-4
2000-11-12	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-23	1541.87	1659.71	28.70%	71.05%	+9.58	7-4
2000-11-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-0	1551.45	1465.49	67.16%	32.60%	+22.86	8-4
2000-11-26	Cleveland Browns	W 44-7	1574.31	1289.68	86.40%	13.35%	+10.97	9-4
2000-12-10	San Diego Chargers	W 24-3	1585.28	1326.36	84.59%	15.16%	+9.38	10-4
2000-12-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 13-7	1594.66	1260.61	84.32%	15.43%	+5.11	11-4
2000-12-24	New York Jets	W 34-20	1599.77	1567.05	60.10%	39.65%	+20.01	12-4
2000-09-03	Tennessee Titans	W 16-13	1568.25	1573.30	54.80%	44.95%	+10.50	1-0
2000-09-10	Green Bay Packers	W 27-18	1578.75	1507.97	65.21%	34.54%	+13.99	2-0
2000-09-17	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1592.74	1560.59	48.83%	50.92%	-23.75	2-1
2000-10-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 16-18	1568.99	1585.53	53.16%	46.59%	-10.13	2-2
2000-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-22	1558.86	1566.71	43.12%	56.63%	-17.45	2-3
2000-10-15	San Diego Chargers	W 27-24	1541.41	1381.73	75.72%	24.03%	+5.62	3-3
2000-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-31	1547.03	1641.61	31.52%	68.24%	-8.51	3-4
2000-10-29	New York Jets	W 23-20	1538.52	1596.25	47.24%	52.51%	+12.27	4-4
2000-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 16-13	1550.79	1469.90	55.82%	43.94%	+10.26	5-4
2000-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 20-3	1561.05	1376.49	78.24%	21.52%	+11.98	6-4
2000-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1573.03	1525.85	51.00%	48.76%	+13.15	7-4
2000-11-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-31	1586.18	1589.82	43.72%	56.04%	-22.07	7-5
2000-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 6-33	1564.11	1597.97	50.67%	49.08%	-35.50	7-6
2000-12-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-44	1528.61	1571.54	38.25%	61.50%	-25.28	7-7
2000-12-17	New England Patriots	L 10-13	1503.33	1416.19	67.31%	32.45%	-15.71	7-8
2000-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 42-23	1487.62	1465.45	47.40%	52.35%	+30.76	8-8
2000-09-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1494.68	1535.88	38.49%	61.26%	-8.99	0-1
2000-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-22	1485.69	1405.58	55.71%	44.05%	+23.76	1-1
2000-09-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-15	1509.45	1450.64	63.63%	36.12%	-19.18	1-2
2000-10-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-16	1490.27	1444.72	61.86%	37.90%	-14.44	1-3
2000-10-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 26-3	1475.83	1493.96	52.93%	46.82%	+30.28	2-3
2000-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-24	1506.11	1412.54	57.61%	42.15%	-32.94	2-4
2000-10-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-16	1473.17	1407.13	64.59%	35.17%	+20.13	3-4
2000-10-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-13	1493.30	1388.58	59.16%	40.59%	-7.98	3-5
2000-11-05	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-24	1485.32	1652.88	23.21%	76.54%	+17.87	4-5
2000-11-12	New Orleans Saints	L 10-20	1503.19	1489.40	57.47%	42.29%	-24.50	4-6
2000-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-31	1478.69	1596.17	28.74%	71.01%	-14.51	4-7
2000-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1464.18	1515.10	48.22%	51.54%	+28.64	5-7
2000-12-03	St. Louis Rams	W 16-3	1492.82	1598.68	40.43%	59.32%	+28.83	6-7
2000-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-15	1521.65	1485.04	49.48%	50.28%	-6.67	6-8
2000-12-17	San Diego Chargers	W 30-22	1514.98	1316.98	79.52%	20.24%	+7.73	7-8
2000-12-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-52	1522.71	1644.02	28.29%	71.46%	-25.04	7-9
2000-09-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-30	1460.01	1567.30	29.96%	69.80%	-7.00	0-1
2000-09-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-41	1453.01	1564.20	29.49%	70.27%	-25.49	0-2
2000-09-17	New York Giants	L 7-14	1427.52	1508.93	43.86%	55.89%	-15.65	0-3
2000-09-24	Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1411.87	1480.15	45.73%	54.02%	-16.32	0-4
2000-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1395.55	1534.00	26.33%	73.42%	+17.14	1-4
2000-10-08	New Orleans Saints	L 10-31	1412.69	1375.00	60.79%	38.97%	-37.54	1-5
2000-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-28	1375.15	1631.21	22.23%	77.52%	-10.40	1-6
2000-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-13	1364.75	1525.45	23.93%	75.83%	-6.46	1-7
2000-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1358.29	1618.90	21.78%	77.97%	+18.20	2-7
2000-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-20	1376.49	1561.05	21.52%	78.24%	-11.98	2-8
2000-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1364.51	1607.61	23.55%	76.20%	+17.79	3-8
2000-11-26	@ New York Jets	L 10-17	1382.30	1583.16	19.97%	79.78%	-7.13	3-9
2000-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 6-28	1375.17	1486.45	39.68%	60.07%	-25.11	3-10
2000-12-10	New England Patriots	W 24-17	1350.06	1436.37	43.17%	56.59%	+20.18	4-10
2000-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-17	1370.24	1435.30	35.29%	64.46%	-19.63	4-11
2000-12-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1350.61	1527.26	22.29%	77.46%	+18.08	5-11
2000-09-10	Cleveland Browns	L 7-24	1409.91	1323.81	67.17%	32.58%	-37.33	0-1
2000-09-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-13	1372.58	1573.79	19.94%	79.81%	-9.71	0-2
2000-09-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 0-37	1362.87	1519.89	24.31%	75.44%	-19.97	0-3
2000-10-01	Miami Dolphins	L 16-31	1342.90	1552.49	27.20%	72.56%	-14.22	0-4
2000-10-08	Tennessee Titans	L 14-23	1328.68	1596.46	21.09%	78.67%	-8.54	0-5
2000-10-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-15	1320.14	1495.89	22.39%	77.37%	-11.70	0-6
2000-10-22	Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1308.44	1561.84	22.50%	77.26%	+32.92	1-6
2000-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns	W 12-3	1341.36	1301.36	49.97%	49.79%	+20.14	2-6
2000-11-05	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-27	1361.50	1521.87	33.15%	66.60%	-20.00	2-7
2000-11-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-23	1341.50	1448.82	29.95%	69.80%	-16.67	2-8
2000-11-19	@ New England Patriots	L 13-16	1324.83	1432.76	29.88%	69.87%	-6.99	2-9
2000-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-48	1317.84	1488.17	31.89%	67.86%	-19.25	2-10
2000-12-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-13	1298.59	1292.93	56.32%	43.43%	+19.43	3-10
2000-12-10	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-35	1318.02	1647.30	10.65%	89.10%	-8.14	3-11
2000-12-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-14	1309.88	1529.50	26.07%	73.69%	+17.20	4-11
2000-12-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-16	1327.08	1556.63	17.46%	82.29%	-7.07	4-12
2000-09-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-27	1338.71	1571.06	24.68%	75.07%	-14.90	0-1
2000-09-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1323.81	1409.91	32.58%	67.17%	+37.32	1-1
2000-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1361.13	1443.92	43.67%	56.09%	+13.10	2-1
2000-09-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-36	1374.23	1541.18	23.28%	76.48%	-16.02	2-2
2000-10-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-12	1358.21	1539.86	30.49%	69.26%	-14.26	2-3
2000-10-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-29	1343.95	1379.36	39.28%	60.47%	-14.99	2-4
2000-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-44	1328.96	1547.34	18.41%	81.34%	-14.50	2-5
2000-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-22	1314.46	1507.59	20.69%	79.06%	-13.10	2-6
2000-10-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-12	1301.36	1341.36	49.79%	49.97%	-20.14	2-7
2000-11-05	New York Giants	L 3-24	1281.22	1537.61	22.20%	77.55%	-13.74	2-8
2000-11-12	New England Patriots	W 19-11	1267.48	1459.64	29.23%	70.53%	+26.89	3-8
2000-11-19	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-24	1294.37	1650.14	9.28%	90.47%	-4.69	3-9
2000-11-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-44	1289.68	1574.31	13.35%	86.40%	-10.98	3-10
2000-12-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-48	1278.70	1499.59	18.19%	81.56%	-17.02	3-11
2000-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-35	1261.68	1547.95	19.37%	80.38%	-8.67	3-12
2000-12-17	Tennessee Titans	L 0-24	1253.01	1655.43	10.96%	88.79%	-7.26	3-13
2000-09-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-41	1513.55	1458.44	63.14%	36.61%	-44.22	0-1
2000-09-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 31-32	1469.33	1417.69	51.64%	48.11%	-6.96	0-2
2000-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-21	1462.37	1529.23	35.06%	64.70%	+21.36	1-2
2000-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-41	1483.73	1373.17	70.19%	29.57%	-39.01	1-3
2000-10-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1444.72	1490.27	37.90%	61.86%	+14.44	2-3
2000-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 14-19	1459.16	1499.75	38.57%	61.18%	-11.63	2-4
2000-10-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 48-7	1447.53	1370.71	65.99%	33.76%	+29.17	3-4
2000-10-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-23	1476.70	1460.12	57.86%	41.89%	-19.10	3-5
2000-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-16	1457.60	1505.69	37.55%	62.20%	-8.78	3-6
2000-11-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-6	1448.82	1341.50	69.80%	29.95%	+16.67	4-6
2000-11-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 0-27	1465.49	1551.45	32.60%	67.16%	-22.86	4-7
2000-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 15-27	1442.63	1610.68	32.18%	67.57%	-15.04	4-8
2000-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-27	1427.59	1611.88	21.54%	78.21%	-13.01	4-9
2000-12-10	Washington Redskins	W 32-13	1414.58	1577.02	32.89%	66.87%	+39.28	5-9
2000-12-17	New York Giants	L 13-17	1453.86	1560.62	40.31%	59.45%	-10.87	5-10
2000-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	L 0-31	1442.99	1662.69	18.30%	81.46%	-13.76	5-11
2000-09-04	@ St. Louis Rams	L 36-41	1521.92	1618.15	31.31%	68.44%	-9.45	0-1
2000-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-14	1512.47	1478.85	60.23%	39.53%	+28.22	1-1
2000-09-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-24	1540.69	1565.02	40.81%	58.94%	+23.83	2-1
2000-09-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-23	1564.52	1525.78	60.93%	38.82%	-8.21	2-2
2000-10-01	New England Patriots	L 19-28	1556.31	1456.35	68.90%	30.85%	-27.86	2-3
2000-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-7	1528.45	1400.62	62.33%	37.42%	+18.89	3-3
2000-10-15	Cleveland Browns	W 44-10	1547.34	1328.96	81.34%	18.41%	+14.50	4-3
2000-10-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-31	1561.84	1308.44	77.26%	22.50%	-32.93	4-4
2000-11-05	@ New York Jets	W 30-23	1528.91	1583.99	36.62%	63.14%	+22.52	5-4
2000-11-13	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1551.43	1629.21	44.38%	55.38%	+12.93	6-4
2000-11-19	San Diego Chargers	W 38-37	1564.36	1354.07	80.63%	19.12%	+2.58	7-4
2000-11-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-31	1566.94	1444.82	61.56%	38.20%	+13.63	8-4
2000-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-23	1580.57	1523.06	52.48%	47.27%	+24.69	9-4
2000-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-24	1605.26	1457.47	74.45%	25.30%	+9.04	10-4
2000-12-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-20	1614.30	1491.71	61.62%	38.13%	-29.94	10-5
2000-12-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-9	1584.36	1454.94	72.40%	27.36%	+19.88	11-5
2000-09-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1478.91	1417.59	53.03%	46.73%	+12.61	1-0
2000-09-10	Washington Redskins	W 15-10	1491.52	1544.87	47.87%	51.89%	+15.64	2-0
2000-09-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-31	1507.16	1589.69	43.70%	56.05%	-27.01	2-1
2000-09-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1480.15	1411.87	54.02%	45.73%	+16.31	3-1
2000-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-31	1496.46	1602.45	40.41%	59.34%	-14.42	3-2
2000-10-08	Green Bay Packers	W 31-24	1482.04	1516.86	50.53%	49.22%	+17.56	4-2
2000-10-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-14	1499.60	1573.57	34.13%	65.62%	+33.09	5-2
2000-10-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 18-30	1532.69	1602.71	34.64%	65.11%	-16.19	5-3
2000-11-05	Miami Dolphins	L 8-23	1516.50	1587.26	45.38%	54.38%	-23.70	5-4
2000-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-10	1492.80	1382.01	70.22%	29.54%	+6.90	6-4
2000-11-19	@ New York Giants	W 31-21	1499.70	1529.37	40.07%	59.68%	+25.44	7-4
2000-11-23	New England Patriots	W 34-9	1525.14	1439.74	67.09%	32.67%	+22.04	8-4
2000-11-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1547.18	1625.73	33.54%	66.21%	-11.97	8-5
2000-12-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-26	1535.21	1511.56	47.61%	52.14%	-23.15	8-6
2000-12-17	@ New York Jets	W 10-7	1512.06	1582.26	34.62%	65.13%	+15.20	9-6
2000-12-24	Chicago Bears	L 20-23	1527.26	1350.61	77.46%	22.29%	-18.08	9-7
2000-09-03	New York Jets	L 16-20	1522.19	1541.64	52.74%	47.01%	-14.22	0-1
2000-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 18-27	1507.97	1578.75	34.54%	65.21%	-13.98	0-2
2000-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-3	1493.99	1471.88	58.63%	41.12%	+9.60	1-2
2000-09-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 29-3	1503.59	1424.65	55.54%	44.21%	+30.41	2-2
2000-10-01	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1534.00	1395.55	73.42%	26.33%	-17.14	2-3
2000-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-31	1516.86	1482.04	49.22%	50.53%	-17.56	2-4
2000-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-28	1499.30	1414.80	66.97%	32.78%	+7.66	3-4
2000-10-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-28	1506.96	1573.88	35.05%	64.70%	-13.37	3-5
2000-11-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-20	1493.59	1607.43	39.33%	60.43%	+19.95	4-5
2000-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 15-20	1513.54	1597.71	32.82%	66.93%	-9.91	4-6
2000-11-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-24	1503.63	1615.49	39.60%	60.15%	+11.47	5-6
2000-11-27	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-31	1515.10	1464.18	51.54%	48.22%	-28.65	5-7
2000-12-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-6	1486.45	1375.17	60.07%	39.68%	+25.11	6-7
2000-12-10	Detroit Lions	W 26-13	1511.56	1535.21	52.14%	47.61%	+23.15	7-7
2000-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-28	1534.71	1613.57	33.50%	66.25%	+19.96	8-7
2000-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1554.67	1647.04	42.31%	57.44%	+13.42	9-7
2000-09-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-14	1545.12	1530.38	46.34%	53.42%	+25.96	1-0
2000-09-10	Oakland Raiders	L 31-38	1571.08	1543.85	59.34%	40.41%	-21.16	1-1
2000-09-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 43-14	1549.92	1583.50	50.71%	49.04%	+35.61	2-1
2000-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 18-16	1585.53	1568.99	46.59%	53.16%	+10.14	3-1
2000-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 16-24	1595.67	1484.21	60.10%	39.66%	-22.92	3-2
2000-10-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-24	1572.75	1463.68	59.77%	39.99%	+19.45	4-2
2000-10-22	New England Patriots	W 30-23	1592.20	1480.41	70.34%	29.42%	+10.51	5-2
2000-10-29	Detroit Lions	W 30-18	1602.71	1532.69	65.11%	34.64%	+16.19	6-2
2000-11-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1618.90	1358.29	77.97%	21.78%	-18.20	6-3
2000-11-12	New York Jets	W 23-15	1600.70	1561.47	61.00%	38.76%	+14.79	7-3
2000-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-26	1615.49	1503.63	60.15%	39.60%	-11.47	7-4
2000-11-26	Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1604.02	1584.36	58.29%	41.46%	-13.61	7-5
2000-12-03	@ New York Jets	L 17-27	1590.41	1590.30	44.25%	55.50%	-18.87	7-6
2000-12-11	Buffalo Bills	W 44-20	1571.54	1528.61	61.50%	38.25%	+25.28	8-6
2000-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-13	1596.82	1620.22	40.94%	58.81%	+20.98	9-6
2000-12-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-10	1617.80	1593.61	58.92%	40.83%	+25.24	10-6
2000-09-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-7	1571.06	1338.71	75.07%	24.68%	+14.90	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 36-39	1585.96	1531.06	52.11%	47.65%	-12.17	1-1
2000-09-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-0	1573.79	1372.58	79.81%	19.94%	+9.71	2-1
2000-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-43	1583.50	1549.92	49.04%	50.71%	-35.61	2-2
2000-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1547.89	1422.48	71.94%	27.82%	-32.16	2-3
2000-10-08	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-15	1515.73	1554.11	50.02%	49.73%	-15.08	2-4
2000-10-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-27	1500.65	1605.01	30.31%	69.44%	-15.30	2-5
2000-10-22	Washington Redskins	L 16-35	1485.35	1573.46	42.91%	56.84%	-25.23	2-6
2000-10-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-17	1460.12	1476.70	41.89%	57.86%	+19.10	3-6
2000-11-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-28	1479.22	1422.22	63.39%	36.36%	-22.61	3-7
2000-11-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-24	1456.61	1515.28	36.14%	63.62%	+27.12	4-7
2000-11-26	Tennessee Titans	W 16-13	1483.73	1654.83	31.80%	67.96%	+15.86	5-7
2000-12-03	Cleveland Browns	W 48-0	1499.59	1278.70	81.56%	18.19%	+17.02	6-7
2000-12-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 44-10	1516.61	1273.50	83.39%	16.37%	+12.89	7-7
2000-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1529.50	1309.88	73.69%	26.07%	-17.20	7-8
2000-12-23	@ New York Giants	L 25-28	1512.30	1571.50	36.07%	63.69%	-8.43	7-9
2000-09-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-27	1530.38	1545.12	53.42%	46.34%	-25.96	0-1
2000-09-10	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-17	1504.42	1562.80	36.18%	63.58%	-8.46	0-2
2000-09-17	San Diego Chargers	W 42-10	1495.96	1459.02	60.68%	39.07%	+29.82	1-2
2000-09-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-22	1525.78	1564.52	38.82%	60.93%	+8.21	2-2
2000-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1533.99	1508.47	59.11%	40.65%	+14.51	3-2
2000-10-15	Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1548.50	1569.47	52.52%	47.23%	-12.27	3-3
2000-10-22	St. Louis Rams	W 54-34	1536.23	1682.45	34.98%	64.77%	+39.04	4-3
2000-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-19	1575.27	1425.35	65.26%	34.50%	+10.41	5-3
2000-11-05	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-49	1585.68	1605.50	41.44%	58.31%	-23.71	5-4
2000-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-21	1561.97	1360.53	71.62%	28.14%	-36.12	5-5
2000-11-19	Buffalo Bills	L 17-21	1525.85	1573.03	48.76%	51.00%	-13.15	5-6
2000-11-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-17	1512.70	1351.49	66.71%	33.04%	-8.99	5-7
2000-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 24-30	1503.71	1417.70	56.54%	43.21%	-18.67	5-8
2000-12-10	Carolina Panthers	W 15-14	1485.04	1521.65	50.28%	49.48%	+6.67	6-8
2000-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 20-7	1491.71	1614.30	38.13%	61.62%	+29.95	7-8
2000-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-29	1521.66	1310.10	72.78%	26.97%	-39.24	7-9
2000-09-03	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-0	1499.50	1513.56	53.51%	46.24%	+29.90	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-13	1529.40	1574.30	37.99%	61.77%	-12.55	1-1
2000-09-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 19-6	1516.85	1543.23	51.75%	48.01%	+23.34	2-1
2000-09-24	New England Patriots	W 10-3	1540.19	1468.65	65.31%	34.44%	+12.30	3-1
2000-10-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-16	1552.49	1342.90	72.56%	27.20%	+14.22	4-1
2000-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 22-13	1566.71	1558.86	56.63%	43.12%	+17.45	5-1
2000-10-23	@ New York Jets	L 37-40	1584.16	1585.98	43.98%	55.78%	-10.28	5-2
2000-10-29	Green Bay Packers	W 28-20	1573.88	1506.96	64.70%	35.05%	+13.38	6-2
2000-11-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-8	1587.26	1516.50	54.38%	45.38%	+23.70	7-2
2000-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-7	1610.96	1363.95	76.61%	23.15%	+9.88	8-2
2000-11-19	New York Jets	L 3-20	1620.84	1546.68	65.65%	34.11%	-36.48	8-3
2000-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-14	1584.36	1604.02	41.46%	58.29%	+13.61	9-3
2000-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 33-6	1597.97	1564.11	49.08%	50.67%	+35.50	10-3
2000-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-16	1633.47	1624.89	56.73%	43.02%	-13.25	10-4
2000-12-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1620.22	1596.82	58.81%	40.94%	-20.97	10-5
2000-12-24	@ New England Patriots	W 27-24	1599.25	1431.90	67.49%	32.27%	+7.54	11-5
2000-09-03	Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1567.30	1460.01	69.80%	29.96%	+7.00	1-0
2000-09-10	Miami Dolphins	W 13-7	1574.30	1529.40	61.77%	37.99%	+12.56	2-0
2000-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 21-13	1586.86	1484.24	58.87%	40.88%	+15.59	3-0
2000-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1602.45	1496.46	59.34%	40.41%	+14.43	4-0
2000-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-23	1616.88	1587.91	59.59%	40.17%	+14.33	5-0
2000-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-16	1631.21	1375.15	77.52%	22.23%	+10.40	6-0
2000-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 31-27	1641.61	1547.03	68.24%	31.52%	+8.51	7-0
2000-10-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-41	1650.12	1540.48	59.85%	39.91%	-42.69	7-1
2000-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-26	1607.43	1493.59	60.43%	39.33%	-19.95	7-2
2000-11-12	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-14	1587.48	1334.38	84.16%	15.60%	+8.69	8-2
2000-11-19	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1596.17	1478.69	71.01%	28.74%	+14.51	9-2
2000-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-15	1610.68	1442.63	67.57%	32.18%	+15.05	10-2
2000-11-30	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1625.73	1547.18	66.21%	33.54%	+11.97	11-2
2000-12-10	@ St. Louis Rams	L 29-40	1637.70	1569.85	53.96%	45.79%	-24.13	11-3
2000-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 28-33	1613.57	1534.71	66.25%	33.50%	-19.96	11-4
2000-12-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1593.61	1617.80	40.83%	58.92%	-25.24	11-5
2000-09-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-21	1503.74	1549.44	48.97%	50.78%	-14.77	0-1
2000-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 19-20	1488.97	1555.86	35.05%	64.70%	-4.73	0-2
2000-09-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1484.24	1586.86	40.88%	58.87%	-15.59	0-3
2000-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-10	1468.65	1540.19	34.44%	65.31%	-12.30	0-4
2000-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-19	1456.35	1556.31	30.85%	68.90%	+27.86	1-4
2000-10-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-16	1484.21	1595.67	39.66%	60.10%	+22.91	2-4
2000-10-15	New York Jets	L 17-34	1507.12	1559.26	48.04%	51.71%	-26.71	2-5
2000-10-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-30	1480.41	1592.20	29.42%	70.34%	-10.51	2-6
2000-11-05	Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1469.90	1550.79	43.94%	55.82%	-10.26	2-7
2000-11-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 11-19	1459.64	1267.48	70.53%	29.23%	-26.88	2-8
2000-11-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-13	1432.76	1324.83	69.87%	29.88%	+6.98	3-8
2000-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-34	1439.74	1525.14	32.67%	67.09%	-22.04	3-9
2000-12-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-24	1417.70	1503.71	43.21%	56.54%	+18.67	4-9
2000-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1436.37	1350.06	56.59%	43.17%	-20.18	4-10
2000-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1416.19	1503.33	32.45%	67.31%	+15.71	5-10
2000-12-24	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1431.90	1599.25	32.27%	67.49%	-7.54	5-11
2000-09-03	Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1417.59	1478.91	46.73%	53.03%	-12.60	0-1
2000-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-27	1404.99	1467.67	35.61%	64.15%	+8.64	1-1
2000-09-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-20	1413.63	1475.41	35.73%	64.03%	-15.24	1-2
2000-09-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-21	1398.39	1462.27	46.36%	53.39%	-23.39	1-3
2000-10-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-10	1375.00	1412.69	38.97%	60.79%	+37.54	2-3
2000-10-15	Carolina Panthers	W 24-6	1412.54	1506.11	42.15%	57.61%	+32.95	3-3
2000-10-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-19	1445.49	1397.87	51.06%	48.69%	+9.29	4-3
2000-10-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 21-10	1454.78	1341.54	60.34%	39.41%	+17.63	5-3
2000-11-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-15	1472.41	1377.53	68.28%	31.48%	+16.99	6-3
2000-11-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1489.40	1503.19	42.29%	57.47%	+24.50	7-3
2000-11-19	Oakland Raiders	L 22-31	1513.90	1616.28	40.91%	58.84%	-16.56	7-4
2000-11-26	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-24	1497.34	1624.40	27.63%	72.13%	+25.72	8-4
2000-12-03	Denver Broncos	L 23-38	1523.06	1580.57	47.27%	52.48%	-24.69	8-5
2000-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-27	1498.37	1448.34	51.41%	48.35%	+13.04	9-5
2000-12-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1511.41	1321.44	78.76%	20.99%	+11.34	10-5
2000-12-24	St. Louis Rams	L 21-26	1522.75	1585.08	46.58%	53.17%	-14.05	10-6
2000-09-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-16	1466.36	1429.48	60.67%	39.08%	+11.78	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-18	1478.14	1502.66	40.79%	58.97%	+30.79	2-0
2000-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 14-7	1508.93	1427.52	55.89%	43.86%	+15.65	3-0
2000-09-24	Washington Redskins	L 6-16	1524.58	1507.87	57.88%	41.88%	-24.67	3-1
2000-10-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-28	1499.91	1579.60	33.39%	66.36%	-16.86	3-2
2000-10-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-6	1483.05	1422.37	52.94%	46.82%	+16.70	4-2
2000-10-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-14	1499.75	1459.16	61.18%	38.57%	+11.64	5-2
2000-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-7	1511.39	1531.91	52.59%	47.16%	+26.22	6-2
2000-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-3	1537.61	1281.22	77.55%	22.20%	+13.74	7-2
2000-11-12	St. Louis Rams	L 24-38	1551.35	1635.02	43.54%	56.21%	-21.98	7-3
2000-11-19	Detroit Lions	L 21-31	1529.37	1499.70	59.68%	40.07%	-25.44	7-4
2000-11-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-7	1503.93	1312.29	70.46%	29.29%	+19.37	8-4
2000-12-03	@ Washington Redskins	W 9-7	1523.30	1589.33	35.17%	64.59%	+12.31	9-4
2000-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-10	1535.61	1515.95	58.29%	41.46%	+25.01	10-4
2000-12-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-13	1560.62	1453.86	59.45%	40.31%	+10.88	11-4
2000-12-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-25	1571.50	1512.30	63.69%	36.07%	+8.43	12-4
2000-09-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-16	1541.64	1522.19	47.01%	52.74%	+14.22	1-0
2000-09-11	New England Patriots	W 20-19	1555.86	1488.97	64.70%	35.05%	+4.73	2-0
2000-09-17	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1560.59	1592.74	50.92%	48.83%	+23.74	3-0
2000-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-17	1584.33	1616.70	39.70%	60.05%	+16.19	4-0
2000-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-20	1600.52	1454.63	74.24%	25.51%	-41.26	4-1
2000-10-15	@ New England Patriots	W 34-17	1559.26	1507.12	51.71%	48.04%	+26.72	5-1
2000-10-23	Miami Dolphins	W 40-37	1585.98	1584.16	55.78%	43.98%	+10.27	6-1
2000-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1596.25	1538.52	52.51%	47.24%	-12.26	6-2
2000-11-05	Denver Broncos	L 23-30	1583.99	1528.91	63.14%	36.62%	-22.52	6-3
2000-11-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-23	1561.47	1600.70	38.76%	61.00%	-14.79	6-4
2000-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-3	1546.68	1620.84	34.11%	65.65%	+36.48	7-4
2000-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 17-10	1583.16	1382.30	79.78%	19.97%	+7.14	8-4
2000-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1590.30	1590.41	55.50%	44.25%	+18.87	9-4
2000-12-10	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-31	1609.17	1634.12	40.73%	59.03%	-26.91	9-5
2000-12-17	Detroit Lions	L 7-10	1582.26	1512.06	65.13%	34.62%	-15.21	9-6
2000-12-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-34	1567.05	1599.77	39.65%	60.10%	-20.01	9-7
2000-09-03	San Diego Chargers	W 9-6	1535.43	1476.09	63.70%	36.05%	+8.42	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-31	1543.85	1571.08	40.41%	59.34%	+21.17	2-0
2000-09-17	Denver Broncos	L 24-33	1565.02	1540.69	58.94%	40.81%	-23.84	2-1
2000-09-24	Cleveland Browns	W 36-10	1541.18	1374.23	76.48%	23.28%	+16.03	3-1
2000-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-28	1557.21	1427.06	62.64%	37.11%	+12.26	4-1
2000-10-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1569.47	1548.50	47.23%	52.52%	+12.27	5-1
2000-10-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-3	1581.74	1444.23	73.31%	26.44%	+18.88	6-1
2000-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 15-13	1600.62	1376.11	74.22%	25.53%	+4.88	7-1
2000-11-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 49-31	1605.50	1585.68	58.31%	41.44%	+23.71	8-1
2000-11-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1629.21	1551.43	55.38%	44.38%	-12.93	8-2
2000-11-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-22	1616.28	1513.90	58.84%	40.91%	+16.56	9-2
2000-11-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-14	1632.84	1357.53	85.77%	13.99%	+9.82	10-2
2000-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1642.66	1507.42	63.32%	36.43%	-8.54	10-3
2000-12-10	New York Jets	W 31-7	1634.12	1609.17	59.03%	40.73%	+26.91	11-3
2000-12-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1661.03	1448.43	72.90%	26.85%	-17.01	11-4
2000-12-24	Carolina Panthers	W 52-9	1644.02	1522.71	71.46%	28.29%	+25.04	12-4
2000-09-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-14	1458.44	1513.55	36.61%	63.14%	+44.22	1-0
2000-09-10	New York Giants	L 18-33	1502.66	1478.14	58.97%	40.79%	-30.78	1-1
2000-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-6	1471.88	1493.99	41.12%	58.63%	-9.61	1-2
2000-09-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1462.27	1398.39	53.39%	46.36%	+23.39	2-2
2000-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-10	1485.66	1450.43	60.45%	39.30%	+28.06	3-2
2000-10-08	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1513.72	1545.15	51.02%	48.73%	-11.91	3-3
2000-10-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 33-14	1501.81	1394.35	59.54%	40.21%	+23.64	4-3
2000-10-22	Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1525.45	1364.75	75.83%	23.93%	+6.46	5-3
2000-10-29	@ New York Giants	L 7-24	1531.91	1511.39	47.16%	52.59%	-26.22	5-4
2000-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-13	1505.69	1457.60	62.20%	37.55%	+8.77	6-4
2000-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-23	1514.46	1528.72	42.22%	57.53%	+13.43	7-4
2000-11-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-9	1527.89	1325.70	79.90%	19.85%	+13.41	8-4
2000-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1541.30	1604.32	35.56%	64.19%	+14.98	9-4
2000-12-03	Tennessee Titans	L 13-15	1556.28	1638.96	43.68%	56.07%	-8.33	9-5
2000-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 35-24	1547.95	1261.68	80.38%	19.37%	+8.68	10-5
2000-12-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-7	1556.63	1327.08	82.29%	17.46%	+7.07	11-5
2000-09-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-16	1471.38	1503.61	50.91%	48.85%	-27.46	0-1
2000-09-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-23	1443.92	1361.13	56.09%	43.67%	-13.09	0-2
2000-09-24	Tennessee Titans	L 20-23	1430.83	1571.25	35.74%	64.01%	-8.35	0-3
2000-10-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-13	1422.48	1547.89	27.82%	71.94%	+32.15	1-3
2000-10-08	@ New York Jets	W 20-3	1454.63	1600.52	25.51%	74.24%	+41.26	2-3
2000-10-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 15-0	1495.89	1320.14	77.37%	22.39%	+11.70	3-3
2000-10-22	Cleveland Browns	W 22-0	1507.59	1314.46	79.06%	20.69%	+13.11	4-3
2000-10-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 9-6	1520.70	1535.31	42.17%	57.58%	+13.44	5-3
2000-11-05	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-9	1534.14	1654.29	28.43%	71.32%	-5.42	5-4
2000-11-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-26	1528.72	1514.46	57.53%	42.22%	-13.44	5-5
2000-11-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-34	1515.28	1456.61	63.62%	36.14%	-27.11	5-6
2000-11-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 48-28	1488.17	1317.84	67.86%	31.89%	+19.25	6-6
2000-12-03	Oakland Raiders	W 21-20	1507.42	1642.66	36.43%	63.32%	+8.53	7-6
2000-12-10	@ New York Giants	L 10-30	1515.95	1535.61	41.46%	58.29%	-25.01	7-7
2000-12-16	Washington Redskins	W 24-3	1490.94	1537.74	48.81%	50.94%	+31.48	8-7
2000-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-21	1522.42	1309.25	72.96%	26.79%	+13.04	9-7
2000-09-03	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-9	1476.09	1535.43	36.05%	63.70%	-8.42	0-1
2000-09-10	New Orleans Saints	L 27-28	1467.67	1404.99	64.15%	35.61%	-8.65	0-2
2000-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-42	1459.02	1495.96	39.07%	60.68%	-29.82	0-3
2000-09-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-20	1429.20	1490.65	46.71%	53.05%	-17.81	0-4
2000-10-01	@ St. Louis Rams	L 31-57	1411.39	1663.88	15.64%	84.11%	-10.77	0-5
2000-10-08	Denver Broncos	L 7-21	1400.62	1528.45	37.42%	62.33%	-18.89	0-6
2000-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1381.73	1541.41	24.03%	75.72%	-5.62	0-7
2000-10-29	Oakland Raiders	L 13-15	1376.11	1600.62	25.53%	74.22%	-4.88	0-8
2000-11-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 15-17	1371.23	1414.94	38.15%	61.61%	-7.28	0-9
2000-11-12	Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1363.95	1610.96	23.15%	76.61%	-9.88	0-10
2000-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 37-38	1354.07	1564.36	19.12%	80.63%	-2.58	0-11
2000-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1351.49	1512.70	33.04%	66.71%	+8.99	1-11
2000-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-45	1360.48	1414.22	47.81%	51.94%	-34.12	1-12
2000-12-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-24	1326.36	1585.28	15.16%	84.59%	-9.38	1-13
2000-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 22-30	1316.98	1514.98	20.24%	79.52%	-7.73	1-14
2000-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-34	1309.25	1522.42	26.79%	72.96%	-13.04	1-15
2000-09-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-36	1420.11	1464.32	38.08%	61.67%	-14.53	0-1
2000-09-10	Carolina Panthers	L 22-38	1405.58	1485.69	44.05%	55.71%	-23.76	0-2
2000-09-17	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-41	1381.82	1635.84	15.53%	84.23%	-8.65	0-3
2000-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-24	1373.17	1483.73	29.57%	70.19%	+39.01	1-3
2000-10-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-20	1412.18	1394.25	58.05%	41.71%	+14.88	2-3
2000-10-08	Oakland Raiders	L 28-34	1427.06	1557.21	37.11%	62.64%	-12.26	2-4
2000-10-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1414.80	1499.30	32.78%	66.97%	-7.67	2-5
2000-10-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-34	1407.13	1473.17	35.17%	64.59%	-20.13	2-6
2000-10-29	St. Louis Rams	L 24-34	1387.00	1643.41	22.20%	77.56%	-9.47	2-7
2000-11-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 15-31	1377.53	1472.41	31.48%	68.28%	-17.00	2-8
2000-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-7	1360.53	1561.97	28.14%	71.62%	+36.12	3-8
2000-11-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-6	1396.65	1375.11	58.55%	41.20%	+17.57	4-8
2000-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 45-17	1414.22	1360.48	51.94%	47.81%	+34.12	5-8
2000-12-10	New Orleans Saints	L 27-31	1448.34	1498.37	48.35%	51.41%	-13.04	5-9
2000-12-17	Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1435.30	1370.24	64.46%	35.29%	+19.64	6-9
2000-12-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-38	1454.94	1584.36	27.36%	72.40%	-19.89	6-10
2000-09-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-23	1513.56	1499.50	46.24%	53.51%	-29.90	0-1
2000-09-10	St. Louis Rams	L 34-37	1483.66	1627.60	35.28%	64.47%	-8.25	0-2
2000-09-17	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1475.41	1413.63	64.03%	35.73%	+15.24	1-2
2000-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-12	1490.65	1429.20	53.05%	46.71%	+17.82	2-2
2000-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-24	1508.47	1533.99	40.65%	59.11%	-14.51	2-3
2000-10-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-26	1493.96	1475.83	46.82%	52.93%	-30.28	2-4
2000-10-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-37	1463.68	1572.75	39.99%	59.77%	-19.45	2-5
2000-10-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-31	1444.23	1581.74	26.44%	73.31%	-18.88	2-6
2000-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-24	1425.35	1575.27	34.50%	65.26%	-10.41	2-7
2000-11-05	San Diego Chargers	W 17-15	1414.94	1371.23	61.61%	38.15%	+7.28	3-7
2000-11-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-21	1422.22	1479.22	36.36%	63.39%	+22.60	4-7
2000-11-26	Denver Broncos	L 31-38	1444.82	1566.94	38.20%	61.56%	-13.63	4-8
2000-12-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-10	1431.19	1347.72	56.18%	43.57%	+26.28	5-8
2000-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1457.47	1605.26	25.30%	74.45%	-9.04	5-9
2000-12-16	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1448.43	1661.03	26.85%	72.90%	+17.02	6-9
2000-12-23	Buffalo Bills	L 23-42	1465.45	1487.62	52.35%	47.40%	-30.77	6-10
2000-09-04	Denver Broncos	W 41-36	1618.15	1521.92	68.44%	31.31%	+9.45	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-34	1627.60	1483.66	64.47%	35.28%	+8.24	2-0
2000-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-24	1635.84	1381.82	84.23%	15.53%	+8.65	3-0
2000-09-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-20	1644.49	1469.82	68.40%	31.35%	+19.39	4-0
2000-10-01	San Diego Chargers	W 57-31	1663.88	1411.39	84.11%	15.64%	+10.77	5-0
2000-10-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 45-29	1674.65	1405.67	85.32%	14.43%	+7.80	6-0
2000-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-54	1682.45	1536.23	64.77%	34.98%	-39.04	6-1
2000-10-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-24	1643.41	1387.00	77.56%	22.20%	+9.47	7-1
2000-11-05	Carolina Panthers	L 24-27	1652.88	1485.32	76.54%	23.21%	-17.86	7-2
2000-11-12	@ New York Giants	W 38-24	1635.02	1551.35	56.21%	43.54%	+21.97	8-2
2000-11-20	Washington Redskins	L 20-33	1656.99	1571.73	67.07%	32.68%	-32.59	8-3
2000-11-26	New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1624.40	1497.34	72.13%	27.63%	-25.72	8-4
2000-12-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-16	1598.68	1492.82	59.32%	40.43%	-28.83	8-5
2000-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 40-29	1569.85	1637.70	45.79%	53.96%	+24.13	9-5
2000-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-38	1593.98	1638.14	38.09%	61.67%	-8.90	9-6
2000-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-21	1585.08	1522.75	53.17%	46.58%	+14.04	10-6
2000-09-03	@ New England Patriots	W 21-16	1549.44	1503.74	50.78%	48.97%	+14.76	1-0
2000-09-10	Chicago Bears	W 41-0	1564.20	1453.01	70.27%	29.49%	+25.49	2-0
2000-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-10	1589.69	1507.16	56.05%	43.70%	+27.01	3-0
2000-09-24	New York Jets	L 17-21	1616.70	1584.33	60.05%	39.70%	-16.19	3-1
2000-10-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1600.51	1532.54	53.98%	45.77%	-12.60	3-2
2000-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-30	1587.91	1616.88	40.17%	59.59%	-14.34	3-3
2000-10-19	Detroit Lions	L 14-28	1573.57	1499.60	65.62%	34.13%	-33.09	3-4
2000-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-13	1540.48	1650.12	39.91%	59.85%	+42.68	4-4
2000-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1583.16	1396.56	69.86%	29.89%	+14.55	5-4
2000-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 20-15	1597.71	1513.54	66.93%	32.82%	+9.90	6-4
2000-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1607.61	1364.51	76.20%	23.55%	-17.79	6-5
2000-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 31-17	1589.82	1586.18	56.04%	43.72%	+22.06	7-5
2000-12-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-7	1611.88	1427.59	78.21%	21.54%	+13.01	8-5
2000-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1624.89	1633.47	43.02%	56.73%	+13.25	9-5
2000-12-18	St. Louis Rams	W 38-35	1638.14	1593.98	61.67%	38.09%	+8.90	10-5
2000-12-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1647.04	1554.67	57.44%	42.31%	-13.41	10-6
2000-09-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1573.30	1568.25	44.95%	54.80%	-10.50	0-1
2000-09-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1562.80	1504.42	63.58%	36.18%	+8.45	1-1
2000-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1571.25	1430.83	64.01%	35.74%	+8.35	2-1
2000-10-01	New York Giants	W 28-14	1579.60	1499.91	66.36%	33.39%	+16.86	3-1
2000-10-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-14	1596.46	1328.68	78.67%	21.09%	+8.55	4-1
2000-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-13	1605.01	1500.65	69.44%	30.31%	+15.30	5-1
2000-10-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 14-6	1620.31	1552.80	53.92%	45.84%	+17.49	6-1
2000-10-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-21	1637.80	1598.69	49.84%	49.92%	+16.49	7-1
2000-11-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 9-7	1654.29	1534.14	71.32%	28.43%	+5.42	8-1
2000-11-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-24	1659.71	1541.87	71.05%	28.70%	-9.57	8-2
2000-11-19	Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1650.14	1294.37	90.47%	9.28%	+4.69	9-2
2000-11-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-16	1654.83	1483.73	67.96%	31.80%	-15.87	9-3
2000-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-13	1638.96	1556.28	56.07%	43.68%	+8.34	10-3
2000-12-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-3	1647.30	1318.02	89.10%	10.65%	+8.13	11-3
2000-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-0	1655.43	1253.01	88.79%	10.96%	+7.26	12-3
2000-12-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-0	1662.69	1442.99	81.46%	18.30%	+13.76	13-3
2000-09-03	Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1535.88	1494.68	61.26%	38.49%	+8.99	1-0
2000-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-15	1544.87	1491.52	51.89%	47.87%	-15.64	1-1
2000-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-27	1529.23	1462.37	64.70%	35.06%	-21.36	1-2
2000-09-24	@ New York Giants	W 16-6	1507.87	1524.58	41.88%	57.88%	+24.67	2-2
2000-10-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1532.54	1600.51	45.77%	53.98%	+12.61	3-2
2000-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1545.15	1513.72	48.73%	51.02%	+11.91	4-2
2000-10-15	Baltimore Ravens	W 10-3	1557.06	1569.20	53.79%	45.96%	+16.40	5-2
2000-10-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-16	1573.46	1485.35	56.84%	42.91%	+25.23	6-2
2000-10-30	Tennessee Titans	L 21-27	1598.69	1637.80	49.92%	49.84%	-16.49	6-3
2000-11-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-16	1582.20	1323.90	77.74%	22.01%	-10.47	6-4
2000-11-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 33-20	1571.73	1656.99	32.68%	67.07%	+32.59	7-4
2000-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1604.32	1541.30	64.19%	35.56%	-14.99	7-5
2000-12-03	New York Giants	L 7-9	1589.33	1523.30	64.59%	35.17%	-12.31	7-6
2000-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-32	1577.02	1414.58	66.87%	32.89%	-39.28	7-7
2000-12-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-24	1537.74	1490.94	50.94%	48.81%	-31.48	7-8
2000-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-3	1506.26	1255.51	83.98%	15.77%	+8.79	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2000-12-31	Denver Broncos	W 21-3	1619.78	1604.24	57.84%	42.16%	+24.06	1-0
2001-01-07	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-10	1643.84	1676.45	39.78%	60.22%	+30.30	2-0
2001-01-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-3	1674.14	1695.59	41.33%	58.67%	+28.45	3-0
2001-01-28	New York Giants	W 34-7	1702.59	1636.71	59.37%	40.63%	+28.40	4-0
2000-12-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-21	1604.24	1619.78	42.16%	57.84%	-24.06	0-1
2000-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-23	1643.04	1606.79	49.55%	50.45%	-16.33	0-1
2000-12-30	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1606.79	1643.04	50.45%	49.55%	+16.33	1-0
2001-01-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-27	1623.12	1669.06	37.96%	62.04%	-26.53	1-1
2001-01-06	New Orleans Saints	W 34-16	1568.37	1522.05	62.09%	37.91%	+21.63	1-0
2001-01-14	@ New York Giants	L 0-41	1590.00	1599.69	42.98%	57.02%	-37.02	1-1
2000-12-30	St. Louis Rams	W 31-28	1508.70	1599.12	42.71%	57.29%	+13.35	1-0
2001-01-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-34	1522.05	1568.37	37.91%	62.09%	-21.63	1-1
2001-01-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1579.93	1594.73	53.53%	46.47%	+19.76	1-0
2001-01-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-0	1599.69	1590.00	57.02%	42.98%	+37.02	2-0
2001-01-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-34	1636.71	1702.59	40.63%	59.37%	-28.40	2-1
2001-01-06	Miami Dolphins	W 27-0	1669.06	1623.12	62.04%	37.96%	+26.53	1-0
2001-01-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 3-16	1695.59	1674.14	58.67%	41.33%	-28.45	1-1
2000-12-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-3	1563.70	1633.63	45.62%	54.38%	+31.03	1-0
2001-01-07	@ New York Giants	L 10-20	1594.73	1579.93	46.47%	53.53%	-19.76	1-1
2000-12-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-31	1599.12	1508.70	57.29%	42.71%	-13.34	0-1
2000-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-21	1633.63	1563.70	54.38%	45.62%	-31.04	0-1
2001-01-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1676.45	1643.84	60.22%	39.78%	-30.31	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2000-11-05	21.78%	@ Chicago Bears	1358.29	27	Indianapolis Colts	1618.90	24
2	2000-11-05	22.01%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1323.90	16	Washington Redskins	1582.20	15
3	2000-12-24	22.29%	Chicago Bears	1350.61	23	@ Detroit Lions	1527.26	20
4	2000-10-22	22.50%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1308.44	31	Denver Broncos	1561.84	21
5	2000-11-05	23.21%	Carolina Panthers	1485.32	27	@ St. Louis Rams	1652.88	24
6	2000-11-19	23.55%	@ Chicago Bears	1364.51	13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1607.61	10
7	2000-10-08	25.51%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1454.63	20	@ New York Jets	1600.52	3
8	2000-12-17	26.07%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1309.88	17	Jacksonville Jaguars	1529.50	14
9	2000-10-01	26.33%	Chicago Bears	1395.55	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1534.00	24
10	2000-12-16	26.85%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1448.43	27	Oakland Raiders	1661.03	24
11	2000-12-24	26.97%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1310.10	29	Kansas City Chiefs	1521.66	13
12	2000-11-26	27.63%	New Orleans Saints	1497.34	31	@ St. Louis Rams	1624.40	24
13	2000-10-01	27.82%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1422.48	24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1547.89	13
14	2000-11-12	28.14%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1360.53	21	Kansas City Chiefs	1561.97	7
15	2000-11-12	28.70%	Baltimore Ravens	1541.87	24	@ Tennessee Titans	1659.71	23
16	2000-11-12	29.23%	@ Cleveland Browns	1267.48	19	New England Patriots	1459.64	11
17	2000-09-24	29.57%	San Francisco 49ers	1373.17	41	@ Dallas Cowboys	1483.73	24
18	2000-10-01	30.85%	New England Patriots	1456.35	28	@ Denver Broncos	1556.31	19
19	2000-11-26	31.80%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1483.73	16	Tennessee Titans	1654.83	13
20	2000-12-17	32.45%	New England Patriots	1416.19	13	@ Buffalo Bills	1503.33	10
21	2000-09-10	32.58%	Cleveland Browns	1323.81	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1409.91	7
22	2000-11-20	32.68%	Washington Redskins	1571.73	33	@ St. Louis Rams	1656.99	20
23	2000-12-10	32.89%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1414.58	32	Washington Redskins	1577.02	13
24	2000-11-26	33.04%	@ San Diego Chargers	1351.49	17	Kansas City Chiefs	1512.70	16
25	2000-12-17	33.50%	Green Bay Packers	1534.71	33	@ Minnesota Vikings	1613.57	28

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2000-09-03	44.22	Philadelphia Eagles	41	1458.44	36.61%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1513.55	63.14%
2	2000-10-29	42.69	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	41	1540.48	39.91%	Minnesota Vikings	13	1650.12	59.85%
3	2000-10-08	41.26	Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1454.63	25.51%	@ New York Jets	3	1600.52	74.24%
4	2000-12-10	39.28	@ Dallas Cowboys	32	1414.58	32.89%	Washington Redskins	13	1577.02	66.87%
5	2000-12-24	39.24	@ Atlanta Falcons	29	1310.10	26.97%	Kansas City Chiefs	13	1521.66	72.78%
6	2000-10-22	39.04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	54	1536.23	34.98%	St. Louis Rams	34	1682.45	64.77%
7	2000-09-24	39.01	San Francisco 49ers	41	1373.17	29.57%	@ Dallas Cowboys	24	1483.73	70.19%
8	2000-10-08	37.54	New Orleans Saints	31	1375.00	38.97%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1412.69	60.79%
9	2000-09-10	37.33	Cleveland Browns	24	1323.81	32.58%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1409.91	67.17%
10	2001-01-14 *	37.02	@ New York Giants	41	1599.69	57.02%	Minnesota Vikings	0	1590.00	42.98%
11	2000-11-19	36.48	New York Jets	20	1546.68	34.11%	@ Miami Dolphins	3	1620.84	65.65%
12	2000-11-12	36.12	@ San Francisco 49ers	21	1360.53	28.14%	Kansas City Chiefs	7	1561.97	71.62%
13	2000-09-25	35.61	@ Indianapolis Colts	43	1549.92	50.71%	Jacksonville Jaguars	14	1583.50	49.04%
14	2000-12-03	35.50	Miami Dolphins	33	1597.97	49.08%	@ Buffalo Bills	6	1564.11	50.67%
15	2000-12-03	34.12	San Francisco 49ers	45	1414.22	51.94%	@ San Diego Chargers	17	1360.48	47.81%
16	2000-10-19	33.09	Detroit Lions	28	1499.60	34.13%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1573.57	65.62%
17	2000-10-15	32.95	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1412.54	42.15%	Carolina Panthers	6	1506.11	57.61%
18	2000-10-22	32.93	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1308.44	22.50%	Denver Broncos	21	1561.84	77.26%
19	2000-11-20	32.59	Washington Redskins	33	1571.73	32.68%	@ St. Louis Rams	20	1656.99	67.07%
20	2000-10-01	32.16	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1422.48	27.82%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	13	1547.89	71.94%
21	2000-12-16	31.48	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1490.94	48.81%	Washington Redskins	3	1537.74	50.94%
22	2000-12-31 *	31.04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	21	1563.70	45.62%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	1633.63	54.38%
23	2000-09-10	30.79	New York Giants	33	1478.14	40.79%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	18	1502.66	58.97%
24	2000-12-23	30.77	Buffalo Bills	42	1487.62	47.40%	@ Seattle Seahawks	23	1465.45	52.35%
25	2000-09-24	30.41	Green Bay Packers	29	1503.59	55.54%	@ Arizona Cardinals	3	1424.65	44.21%