2007 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1990

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

6th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2004

Biggest Overachiever

New England Patriots

3.63 wins above expected

16 wins · 12.37 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Miami Dolphins

3.73 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.73 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	16	0	1.000	—	589	274	+315	12.37	+3.63
2	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	9	252	354	-102	7.35	-0.35
3	New York Jets	4	12	.250	12	268	355	-87	5.94	-1.94
4	Miami Dolphins	1	15	.062	15	267	437	-170	4.73	-3.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	6	.625	—	393	269	+124	11.08	-1.08
2	Cleveland Browns	10	6	.625	—	402	382	+20	7.99	+2.01
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	3	380	385	-5	7.87	-0.87
4	Baltimore Ravens	5	11	.312	5	275	384	-109	7.46	-2.46

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	13	3	.812	—	450	262	+188	11.61	+1.39
2	Jacksonville Jaguars Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	411	304	+107	9.33	+1.67
3	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	301	297	+4	8.50	+1.50
4	Houston Texans	8	8	.500	5	379	384	-5	6.96	+1.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	5	.688	—	412	284	+128	9.87	+1.13
2	Denver Broncos	7	9	.438	4	320	409	-89	7.01	-0.01
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	7	226	335	-109	7.20	-3.20
4	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	7	283	398	-115	4.99	-0.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	13	3	.812	—	455	325	+130	10.78	+2.22
2	New York Giants Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	373	351	+22	8.38	+1.62
3	Washington Redskins Playoffs	9	7	.562	4	334	310	+24	7.25	+1.75
4	Philadelphia Eagles	8	8	.500	5	336	300	+36	7.92	+0.08

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	13	3	.812	—	435	291	+144	10.32	+2.68
2	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	.500	5	365	311	+54	8.22	-0.22
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	6	334	348	-14	7.73	-0.73
4	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	6	346	444	-98	6.81	+0.19

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	9	7	.562	—	334	270	+64	9.00	0.00
2	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	2	379	388	-9	8.21	-1.21
3	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	2	267	347	-80	6.90	+0.10
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	5	259	414	-155	5.43	-1.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	10	6	.625	—	393	291	+102	10.27	-0.27
2	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	2	404	399	+5	7.69	+0.31
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	11	.312	5	219	364	-145	5.42	-0.42
4	St. Louis Rams	3	13	.188	7	263	438	-175	5.43	-2.43

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 29

Jan 5

San Diego Chargers 17

Tennessee Titans 6

Jan 6

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Jan 12

San Diego Chargers 28

Indianapolis Colts 24

Jan 13

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 21

San Diego Chargers 12

Jan 20

NFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 35

Washington Redskins 14

Jan 5

New York Giants 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers 42

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 12

New York Giants 21

Dallas Cowboys 17

Jan 13

Conference Championship

New York Giants 23

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 20

Super Bowl

New York Giants 17

New England Patriots 14

Feb 3

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1882	16	12.37	+3.63	100.00%	5	10	11	12	13	15	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1763	13	11.61	+1.39	86.61%	4	9	10	12	13	14	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1669	11	9.87	+1.13	80.97%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1656	13	10.78	+2.22	94.47%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1641	11	9.33	+1.67	88.20%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1624	10	11.08	-1.08	36.85%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1624	13	10.32	+2.68	97.05%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1623	9	7.25	+1.75	88.86%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1583	10	10.27	-0.27	54.18%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1580	8	7.92	+0.08	62.65%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1563	8	6.96	+1.04	79.71%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1542	10	8.38	+1.62	87.51%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1540	10	7.99	+2.01	91.24%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1537	8	8.22	-0.22	56.35%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1532	7	7.73	-0.73	45.34%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1523	9	9.00	0.00	60.34%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1501	7	7.87	-0.87	42.99%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1499	10	8.50	+1.50	85.80%	2	5	7	8	10	12	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1477	8	7.69	+0.31	67.14%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1470	7	8.21	-1.21	35.85%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1438	7	7.01	-0.01	60.77%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1426	7	7.35	-0.35	53.86%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1416	7	6.90	+0.10	63.50%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1391	7	6.81	+0.19	64.99%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1380	4	5.94	-1.94	21.70%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1354	5	7.46	-2.46	13.67%	1	5	6	7	9	10	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1340	4	4.99	-0.99	40.82%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1318	5	5.42	-0.42	53.46%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1301	3	5.43	-2.43	14.70%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1286	4	7.20	-3.20	7.53%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1279	4	5.43	-1.43	31.38%	0	2	4	5	7	8	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1241	1	4.73	-3.73	2.20%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—
New England Patriots	4-0 (3.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (3.1 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Jets	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (3.2 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (3.0 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	16	12.37	+3.63
2	Green Bay Packers	13	10.32	+2.68
3	Dallas Cowboys	13	10.78	+2.22
4	Cleveland Browns	10	7.99	+2.01
5	Washington Redskins	9	7.25	+1.75

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Miami Dolphins	1	4.73	-3.73
2	Kansas City Chiefs	4	7.20	-3.20
3	Baltimore Ravens	5	7.46	-2.46
4	St. Louis Rams	3	5.43	-2.43
5	New York Jets	4	5.94	-1.94

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	16	Sep 9 – Dec 29	1 in 90
2	Washington Redskins	4	Dec 6 – Dec 30	1 in 50
3	New York Giants	6	Sep 23 – Oct 28	1 in 32
4	New Orleans Saints	4	Oct 14 – Nov 4	1 in 30
5	Indianapolis Colts	7	Sep 6 – Oct 28	1 in 25

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Nov 4 – Dec 30	1 in 248
2	Miami Dolphins	13	Sep 9 – Dec 9	1 in 217
3	Baltimore Ravens	9	Oct 21 – Dec 23	1 in 124
4	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 23 – Nov 18	1 in 47
5	St. Louis Rams	8	Sep 9 – Oct 28	1 in 46

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	96.22%	3.58%	0.20%	—
Buffalo Bills	3.03%	60.50%	26.99%	9.48%
New York Jets	0.63%	26.77%	44.79%	27.81%
Miami Dolphins	0.12%	9.15%	28.02%	62.71%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	75.55%	17.14%	5.66%	1.65%
Cleveland Browns	9.40%	29.18%	30.76%	30.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.26%	28.04%	30.73%	31.97%
Baltimore Ravens	5.79%	25.64%	32.85%	35.72%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	71.87%	20.11%	6.52%	1.50%
Jacksonville Jaguars	16.86%	41.07%	29.48%	12.59%
Tennessee Titans	8.96%	27.88%	39.02%	24.14%
Houston Texans	2.31%	10.94%	24.98%	61.77%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	71.73%	19.83%	6.96%	1.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.40%	36.27%	33.68%	15.65%
Denver Broncos	11.90%	34.98%	35.86%	17.26%
Oakland Raiders	1.97%	8.92%	23.50%	65.61%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	68.41%	20.71%	8.01%	2.87%
New York Giants	15.46%	32.29%	29.51%	22.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.05%	27.45%	32.05%	30.45%
Washington Redskins	6.08%	19.55%	30.43%	43.94%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	67.20%	21.25%	8.72%	2.83%
Minnesota Vikings	16.68%	34.46%	29.55%	19.31%
Chicago Bears	10.82%	27.45%	33.58%	28.15%
Detroit Lions	5.30%	16.84%	28.15%	49.71%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50.25%	30.26%	14.74%	4.75%
New Orleans Saints	32.36%	33.96%	23.12%	10.56%
Carolina Panthers	14.05%	25.66%	37.37%	22.92%
Atlanta Falcons	3.34%	10.12%	24.77%	61.77%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	77.24%	17.78%	3.87%	1.11%
Arizona Cardinals	17.63%	50.36%	23.19%	8.82%
St. Louis Rams	2.60%	16.37%	36.12%	44.91%
San Francisco 49ers	2.53%	15.49%	36.82%	45.16%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	44.82%	26.37%	14.61%	7.80%	3.04%	1.65%	0.74%	0.45%	0.28%	0.14%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	27.49%	23.77%	17.23%	10.99%	7.86%	4.88%	2.54%	1.92%	1.44%	0.79%	0.46%	0.37%	0.17%	0.06%	0.03%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.99%	21.23%	23.38%	15.04%	8.88%	6.13%	3.97%	2.66%	1.88%	1.06%	0.80%	0.58%	0.21%	0.12%	0.05%	0.02%
San Diego Chargers	6.40%	10.47%	14.48%	18.92%	13.06%	9.72%	7.30%	5.92%	4.13%	3.08%	2.57%	1.66%	0.91%	0.80%	0.44%	0.14%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.19%	7.02%	8.61%	11.88%	14.07%	11.40%	9.67%	8.03%	7.07%	5.78%	4.59%	3.43%	2.52%	1.68%	0.79%	0.27%
Tennessee Titans	1.36%	3.08%	4.86%	7.61%	10.59%	10.21%	9.86%	9.91%	8.94%	8.33%	7.39%	5.76%	5.01%	3.67%	2.45%	0.97%
Cleveland Browns	0.80%	1.95%	3.49%	5.32%	7.40%	9.81%	9.41%	8.65%	9.62%	9.28%	8.19%	7.29%	6.87%	5.64%	4.21%	2.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.66%	2.00%	3.64%	5.13%	6.97%	8.38%	9.02%	8.78%	9.59%	8.94%	8.62%	8.35%	7.43%	6.44%	3.96%	2.09%
Buffalo Bills	0.35%	0.95%	1.71%	2.89%	5.69%	8.13%	9.62%	10.62%	9.79%	9.68%	9.99%	8.38%	7.76%	6.34%	4.67%	3.43%
Baltimore Ravens	0.27%	0.81%	2.33%	3.40%	5.67%	7.88%	8.92%	8.97%	9.52%	9.92%	9.23%	8.65%	8.28%	8.19%	5.19%	2.77%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.19%	0.94%	2.00%	4.35%	5.60%	6.58%	7.95%	9.48%	9.26%	9.14%	9.29%	9.45%	7.92%	7.04%	6.41%	4.40%
Denver Broncos	0.22%	0.77%	1.77%	3.32%	4.64%	6.12%	8.03%	8.32%	8.84%	8.98%	9.68%	9.85%	9.56%	7.89%	7.11%	4.90%
Houston Texans	0.23%	0.52%	1.35%	2.30%	4.08%	4.61%	5.71%	6.87%	8.10%	9.03%	9.45%	10.41%	11.47%	11.36%	8.93%	5.58%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.07%	0.34%	0.59%	1.47%	2.96%	4.27%	5.30%	6.05%	7.76%	9.22%	11.30%	12.38%	12.74%	12.68%	12.86%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.03%	0.15%	0.37%	0.65%	0.96%	1.77%	2.34%	2.99%	4.35%	5.66%	7.16%	9.95%	13.84%	21.35%	28.41%
Miami Dolphins	—	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.33%	0.58%	1.22%	1.78%	2.50%	3.74%	4.83%	7.31%	9.55%	14.18%	21.73%	32.09%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Dallas Cowboys	30.87%	19.59%	14.07%	9.72%	7.36%	5.36%	4.06%	2.60%	2.18%	1.59%	0.97%	0.66%	0.54%	0.34%	0.05%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	21.19%	19.66%	15.59%	11.07%	8.43%	6.48%	5.25%	3.42%	2.58%	2.06%	1.63%	0.94%	0.91%	0.42%	0.28%	0.09%
Seattle Seahawks	20.40%	19.69%	16.01%	12.28%	8.23%	6.13%	4.58%	3.95%	2.55%	2.05%	1.42%	1.10%	0.66%	0.46%	0.33%	0.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.62%	9.43%	11.93%	12.24%	9.93%	9.16%	8.96%	7.11%	5.68%	4.79%	4.37%	3.31%	2.48%	2.00%	1.28%	0.71%
New York Giants	4.51%	5.17%	6.33%	8.07%	9.36%	8.79%	8.13%	8.45%	8.22%	7.41%	6.25%	6.14%	4.77%	4.09%	2.91%	1.40%
New Orleans Saints	3.01%	5.42%	7.74%	8.91%	9.06%	8.61%	8.74%	8.39%	7.14%	6.91%	6.28%	5.90%	5.00%	3.85%	2.84%	2.20%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	4.80%	6.26%	7.15%	8.65%	9.53%	8.79%	8.67%	8.60%	7.66%	6.70%	5.81%	5.05%	4.15%	3.22%	1.75%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.57%	4.10%	4.68%	6.11%	7.62%	7.70%	8.34%	8.19%	8.87%	8.02%	7.75%	7.08%	6.52%	5.82%	4.47%	2.16%
Arizona Cardinals	1.86%	3.51%	4.55%	5.97%	6.78%	7.97%	9.25%	9.82%	9.09%	8.34%	7.35%	7.11%	6.34%	5.09%	4.07%	2.90%
Chicago Bears	2.79%	3.05%	3.83%	5.32%	7.05%	7.71%	7.76%	8.60%	8.96%	7.71%	8.10%	7.52%	7.63%	5.90%	5.26%	2.81%
Washington Redskins	1.55%	1.91%	2.74%	3.89%	5.11%	6.38%	6.33%	7.36%	8.52%	9.31%	8.32%	9.14%	9.34%	8.30%	7.28%	4.52%
Carolina Panthers	0.56%	1.48%	2.65%	3.91%	4.62%	5.77%	6.72%	7.01%	7.81%	9.12%	9.98%	8.96%	8.43%	9.31%	7.70%	5.97%
Detroit Lions	0.62%	1.45%	2.11%	2.90%	4.19%	4.86%	5.38%	6.14%	7.07%	8.36%	9.15%	9.52%	10.41%	10.23%	10.63%	6.98%
St. Louis Rams	0.07%	0.36%	0.43%	0.78%	1.13%	1.96%	2.57%	3.71%	4.23%	5.78%	7.34%	9.71%	10.82%	12.71%	15.59%	22.81%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.19%	0.51%	0.75%	1.22%	1.90%	2.67%	3.44%	4.19%	5.30%	7.36%	9.26%	10.67%	13.72%	15.46%	23.29%
Atlanta Falcons	0.10%	0.19%	0.57%	0.93%	1.26%	1.69%	2.47%	3.14%	4.31%	5.59%	7.03%	7.84%	10.43%	13.61%	18.63%	22.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	35.39%	18.16%	14.68%	8.51%	7.51%	4.55%	3.75%	1.93%	1.61%	0.96%	0.71%	0.63%	0.43%	0.30%	0.27%	0.15%	0.15%	0.08%	0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	21.05%	14.07%	12.95%	9.99%	9.10%	6.03%	5.64%	3.84%	3.88%	2.67%	2.20%	1.58%	1.38%	1.11%	0.91%	0.78%	0.69%	0.53%	0.34%	0.32%	0.27%	0.15%	0.17%	0.10%	0.09%	0.08%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.38%	10.90%	13.18%	10.23%	10.98%	7.99%	6.75%	5.62%	4.65%	3.78%	2.76%	2.46%	2.08%	1.66%	1.20%	1.21%	1.02%	0.68%	0.54%	0.37%	0.42%	0.32%	0.32%	0.14%	0.11%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	—
Dallas Cowboys	9.40%	13.90%	10.29%	10.34%	8.11%	8.36%	5.98%	5.92%	3.99%	4.05%	3.26%	2.87%	2.31%	2.07%	1.64%	1.44%	1.12%	0.94%	0.89%	0.69%	0.43%	0.40%	0.44%	0.32%	0.34%	0.16%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	—
Green Bay Packers	5.16%	10.26%	8.33%	10.55%	8.15%	8.99%	6.45%	6.63%	4.75%	4.76%	3.87%	3.62%	2.51%	2.82%	1.84%	2.08%	1.46%	1.44%	1.16%	1.13%	0.87%	0.65%	0.66%	0.36%	0.43%	0.29%	0.28%	0.18%	0.16%	0.12%	0.02%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	5.37%	9.92%	7.99%	10.42%	7.94%	9.22%	6.16%	7.19%	4.82%	5.05%	3.81%	3.08%	2.75%	2.60%	2.28%	2.20%	1.28%	1.36%	1.26%	1.01%	0.76%	0.81%	0.62%	0.51%	0.44%	0.29%	0.24%	0.17%	0.20%	0.16%	0.06%	0.03%
San Diego Chargers	4.68%	4.57%	7.24%	5.53%	8.06%	6.54%	8.90%	7.13%	6.23%	5.61%	4.93%	4.00%	3.95%	3.16%	3.14%	2.63%	2.10%	2.01%	1.68%	1.49%	1.44%	1.05%	0.89%	0.75%	0.62%	0.38%	0.40%	0.36%	0.26%	0.13%	0.09%	0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.21%	2.59%	4.71%	4.07%	5.17%	4.91%	6.33%	5.59%	7.23%	5.51%	5.61%	4.96%	5.12%	3.95%	4.16%	3.01%	3.71%	3.32%	3.00%	2.34%	2.02%	2.15%	2.03%	1.48%	1.00%	1.21%	0.89%	0.66%	0.44%	0.34%	0.18%	0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.30%	3.22%	3.32%	5.12%	4.54%	6.59%	5.57%	6.69%	5.09%	5.88%	4.94%	4.90%	4.35%	5.01%	3.88%	4.18%	3.37%	2.65%	2.65%	2.61%	2.38%	1.88%	1.82%	1.40%	1.58%	1.28%	1.10%	0.86%	0.77%	0.48%	0.34%	0.25%
Tennessee Titans	0.77%	1.07%	2.05%	2.13%	3.39%	3.14%	4.28%	4.16%	5.11%	4.82%	5.14%	4.45%	5.20%	4.45%	4.87%	4.28%	4.97%	3.78%	3.95%	3.75%	3.71%	3.33%	3.04%	2.74%	2.60%	2.02%	1.81%	1.68%	1.42%	0.96%	0.56%	0.37%
New York Giants	0.85%	1.82%	1.96%	2.77%	2.83%	3.63%	3.93%	4.56%	4.36%	5.05%	4.31%	5.16%	4.17%	4.50%	4.17%	4.31%	4.62%	4.23%	3.60%	3.62%	3.48%	3.20%	3.34%	2.86%	2.46%	2.47%	2.05%	1.73%	1.70%	1.06%	0.76%	0.44%
New Orleans Saints	0.43%	1.43%	1.70%	2.91%	2.97%	4.09%	3.82%	4.97%	4.32%	5.04%	4.26%	4.95%	4.16%	4.39%	4.38%	4.70%	3.68%	3.86%	3.68%	3.63%	3.55%	3.05%	2.95%	3.05%	2.87%	2.17%	2.22%	1.91%	1.67%	1.43%	1.20%	0.56%
Minnesota Vikings	0.45%	1.35%	1.55%	2.81%	2.43%	3.69%	3.46%	3.99%	3.89%	4.90%	4.68%	4.93%	4.56%	4.87%	4.67%	4.44%	4.05%	4.41%	4.21%	3.80%	3.65%	3.52%	3.05%	2.67%	2.78%	2.57%	2.14%	1.93%	1.64%	1.28%	1.05%	0.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.39%	0.89%	1.31%	2.22%	2.09%	2.80%	2.75%	3.32%	3.85%	3.68%	4.22%	4.06%	4.55%	4.25%	4.33%	4.34%	4.93%	4.19%	3.82%	4.44%	3.92%	4.12%	3.79%	3.49%	3.35%	3.07%	3.07%	2.51%	2.45%	1.84%	1.21%	0.75%
Cleveland Browns	0.40%	0.75%	1.23%	1.33%	2.23%	2.36%	2.92%	2.95%	3.54%	4.03%	4.61%	4.63%	4.65%	4.75%	4.03%	4.31%	4.52%	4.85%	4.53%	4.23%	3.94%	4.16%	3.85%	3.42%	3.24%	3.20%	2.96%	2.38%	2.19%	1.69%	1.42%	0.70%
Arizona Cardinals	0.19%	0.88%	1.14%	1.69%	1.76%	2.36%	2.60%	3.38%	3.01%	3.98%	3.67%	4.41%	4.10%	4.98%	4.58%	5.24%	4.13%	4.64%	4.51%	4.75%	3.64%	3.81%	3.66%	3.66%	3.56%	3.60%	2.80%	2.41%	2.48%	1.84%	1.62%	0.92%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.38%	0.59%	1.36%	1.55%	1.93%	2.33%	2.93%	2.67%	4.01%	3.00%	3.99%	4.27%	4.72%	4.01%	4.42%	3.97%	4.70%	4.86%	4.36%	4.05%	4.22%	4.22%	4.32%	3.93%	3.79%	3.23%	3.28%	2.81%	2.23%	1.67%	1.42%	0.78%
Chicago Bears	0.33%	1.19%	1.10%	1.82%	1.67%	2.07%	2.32%	3.05%	3.33%	3.96%	3.90%	3.65%	4.45%	4.05%	4.61%	4.40%	4.91%	4.05%	4.22%	3.71%	4.24%	3.84%	4.21%	3.79%	3.72%	3.67%	3.33%	2.89%	2.53%	2.39%	1.43%	1.17%
Baltimore Ravens	0.12%	0.26%	0.42%	0.76%	1.22%	1.37%	2.06%	2.31%	2.65%	2.95%	3.64%	3.96%	4.38%	4.26%	4.31%	4.72%	4.71%	4.90%	4.99%	4.67%	4.40%	4.49%	4.33%	4.37%	4.02%	4.02%	4.15%	3.38%	3.13%	2.23%	1.75%	1.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.22%	0.30%	0.63%	0.65%	1.19%	0.99%	1.90%	1.96%	2.85%	2.74%	4.12%	3.92%	4.05%	4.35%	5.01%	4.91%	4.23%	4.88%	4.74%	5.03%	4.62%	4.77%	4.41%	4.36%	3.82%	3.99%	3.47%	3.23%	2.65%	2.25%	2.32%	1.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.10%	0.22%	0.49%	0.79%	1.21%	1.10%	2.38%	2.09%	2.90%	2.57%	3.36%	3.08%	3.88%	3.71%	4.27%	4.73%	4.23%	4.80%	4.41%	4.88%	4.24%	5.12%	4.33%	4.68%	4.02%	4.12%	3.30%	3.82%	3.32%	3.30%	2.61%	1.94%
Washington Redskins	0.14%	0.59%	0.77%	0.92%	1.13%	1.40%	1.77%	2.19%	2.21%	2.79%	3.22%	3.35%	3.53%	3.35%	3.64%	3.97%	4.65%	4.16%	4.81%	4.60%	4.55%	4.20%	4.37%	4.63%	4.80%	4.66%	4.45%	4.24%	3.45%	3.30%	2.36%	1.80%
Denver Broncos	0.09%	0.25%	0.48%	0.55%	1.07%	1.03%	1.82%	1.55%	2.59%	1.98%	2.94%	3.21%	3.67%	3.76%	4.27%	4.03%	4.15%	4.37%	4.01%	4.60%	5.06%	4.76%	4.43%	5.02%	4.27%	4.97%	4.36%	4.25%	3.58%	3.67%	2.99%	2.22%
Carolina Panthers	0.07%	0.24%	0.34%	0.70%	0.89%	1.29%	1.39%	1.85%	2.23%	2.73%	2.60%	3.17%	2.94%	3.79%	3.46%	3.51%	3.60%	4.43%	4.39%	4.90%	4.69%	5.40%	4.74%	4.65%	4.43%	4.43%	4.69%	5.02%	4.12%	3.71%	3.14%	2.46%
Houston Texans	0.06%	0.19%	0.29%	0.46%	0.91%	0.89%	1.43%	1.13%	2.13%	2.14%	2.39%	2.62%	3.26%	2.74%	3.44%	3.15%	4.36%	4.00%	4.52%	4.27%	4.62%	4.91%	5.13%	4.88%	5.55%	5.37%	5.27%	5.28%	4.49%	4.23%	3.04%	2.85%
Detroit Lions	0.06%	0.24%	0.31%	0.70%	0.79%	1.19%	1.30%	1.50%	1.84%	2.05%	2.54%	2.67%	2.54%	3.10%	3.43%	3.25%	3.76%	3.36%	4.51%	3.81%	5.04%	4.54%	5.06%	4.65%	5.35%	5.40%	5.04%	5.00%	4.90%	5.17%	4.09%	2.81%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.16%	0.16%	0.20%	0.32%	0.48%	0.83%	0.83%	1.26%	1.63%	1.85%	2.11%	2.44%	2.65%	2.93%	2.84%	3.55%	4.08%	4.46%	4.58%	4.95%	5.68%	5.87%	6.28%	6.25%	6.59%	6.32%	7.22%	6.60%	6.84%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.03%	0.04%	0.13%	0.18%	0.26%	0.34%	0.33%	0.47%	0.57%	0.82%	1.10%	0.97%	1.59%	1.52%	1.91%	1.81%	2.48%	2.75%	3.08%	3.45%	3.86%	4.28%	5.53%	4.97%	5.48%	6.08%	7.05%	8.21%	8.83%	10.38%	11.50%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.23%	0.29%	0.34%	0.49%	0.78%	0.71%	1.02%	1.09%	1.36%	1.65%	1.83%	1.74%	2.33%	2.51%	3.02%	3.19%	3.95%	4.19%	4.97%	5.33%	5.99%	6.65%	7.41%	7.46%	8.71%	11.03%	11.48%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.05%	0.03%	0.10%	0.16%	0.27%	0.27%	0.45%	0.53%	0.68%	0.69%	0.80%	1.16%	1.45%	1.52%	1.59%	2.01%	2.26%	2.64%	2.97%	3.82%	3.53%	3.76%	4.44%	5.10%	5.52%	6.66%	7.35%	8.73%	9.73%	10.45%	11.28%
Oakland Raiders	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.11%	0.08%	0.11%	0.16%	0.43%	0.30%	0.53%	0.52%	0.83%	0.84%	1.07%	1.02%	1.44%	1.73%	2.08%	2.17%	2.60%	2.86%	3.29%	3.93%	4.84%	5.12%	6.35%	7.24%	9.81%	10.97%	13.05%	16.45%
Miami Dolphins	—	—	0.03%	0.01%	—	0.05%	0.08%	0.07%	0.18%	0.16%	0.31%	0.34%	0.41%	0.66%	0.59%	1.06%	0.97%	1.58%	1.64%	1.91%	2.27%	2.35%	3.56%	3.53%	4.65%	4.86%	6.49%	7.51%	9.57%	11.25%	14.77%	19.14%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	44.82%	27.16%	16.30%	7.94%	1.37%	1.05%	1.36%
Indianapolis Colts	27.49%	23.44%	15.38%	5.56%	13.86%	5.98%	8.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.99%	21.48%	26.55%	13.53%	6.37%	6.45%	11.63%
San Diego Chargers	6.40%	10.74%	17.22%	37.37%	2.49%	3.94%	21.84%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.19%	6.34%	4.62%	2.71%	23.68%	14.02%	45.44%
Tennessee Titans	1.36%	2.87%	2.89%	1.84%	14.47%	12.29%	64.28%
Cleveland Browns	0.80%	1.89%	3.71%	3.00%	7.39%	10.50%	72.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.66%	2.05%	3.64%	2.91%	7.32%	9.23%	74.19%
Buffalo Bills	0.35%	0.82%	0.95%	0.91%	6.45%	9.04%	81.48%
Baltimore Ravens	0.27%	0.84%	2.49%	2.19%	5.04%	8.56%	80.61%
Houston Texans	0.23%	0.50%	1.02%	0.56%	4.70%	5.21%	87.78%
Denver Broncos	0.22%	0.80%	2.20%	8.68%	2.44%	4.56%	81.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.19%	0.95%	2.52%	10.74%	2.69%	4.70%	78.21%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.03%	0.22%	1.70%	0.16%	0.69%	97.18%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.07%	0.26%	0.29%	1.24%	3.25%	94.88%
Miami Dolphins	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.33%	0.53%	99.02%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	30.87%	19.13%	12.72%	5.69%	11.37%	6.46%	13.76%
Green Bay Packers	21.19%	19.89%	16.46%	9.66%	8.06%	7.03%	17.71%
Seattle Seahawks	20.40%	20.83%	18.74%	17.27%	3.48%	4.03%	15.25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.62%	10.00%	14.27%	19.36%	4.69%	6.53%	38.53%
New York Giants	4.51%	4.63%	3.90%	2.42%	14.32%	10.72%	59.50%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	4.56%	5.22%	3.69%	10.72%	11.08%	61.52%
New Orleans Saints	3.01%	5.72%	9.32%	14.31%	4.79%	7.37%	55.48%
Chicago Bears	2.79%	2.83%	2.87%	2.33%	9.07%	8.66%	71.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.57%	3.40%	2.51%	1.57%	11.92%	9.28%	68.75%
Arizona Cardinals	1.86%	3.56%	4.90%	7.31%	5.68%	7.74%	68.95%
Washington Redskins	1.55%	1.59%	1.70%	1.24%	7.22%	6.79%	79.91%
Detroit Lions	0.62%	1.40%	1.80%	1.48%	4.65%	5.44%	84.61%
Carolina Panthers	0.56%	1.66%	3.50%	8.33%	1.94%	4.45%	79.56%
Atlanta Falcons	0.10%	0.22%	0.83%	2.19%	0.62%	1.22%	94.82%
St. Louis Rams	0.07%	0.37%	0.61%	1.55%	0.79%	1.62%	94.99%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.21%	0.65%	1.60%	0.68%	1.58%	95.21%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	95.81%	95.81%	77.32%	57.29%	45.43%
Indianapolis Colts	81.17%	81.17%	51.33%	22.50%	15.98%
Dallas Cowboys	74.22%	74.22%	48.28%	29.75%	9.14%
Green Bay Packers	67.63%	67.63%	39.61%	22.13%	6.23%
San Diego Chargers	61.02%	59.85%	23.41%	8.11%	4.91%
Seattle Seahawks	67.73%	67.73%	35.51%	16.94%	4.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.78%	68.78%	24.66%	6.62%	3.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	45.03%	31.27%	11.36%	3.44%	2.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	44.85%	39.94%	16.00%	6.34%	1.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	25.28%	19.00%	9.13%	4.53%	1.21%
Washington Redskins	16.95%	12.61%	6.64%	3.37%	1.12%
Minnesota Vikings	30.71%	21.93%	9.77%	4.16%	1.05%
New York Giants	31.36%	23.76%	10.33%	4.47%	1.03%
Chicago Bears	22.93%	15.57%	6.17%	2.43%	0.54%
New Orleans Saints	35.79%	23.55%	8.17%	2.96%	0.53%
Arizona Cardinals	25.63%	15.52%	5.41%	1.75%	0.29%
Cleveland Browns	24.60%	11.56%	2.52%	0.51%	0.27%
Houston Texans	11.49%	5.33%	1.42%	0.39%	0.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	23.10%	10.31%	2.09%	0.37%	0.19%
Tennessee Titans	31.49%	13.79%	3.31%	0.49%	0.16%
Carolina Panthers	18.22%	8.67%	2.75%	0.68%	0.14%
Denver Broncos	17.88%	6.58%	1.00%	0.10%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	17.35%	5.04%	0.70%	0.12%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	13.37%	5.88%	1.50%	0.38%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders	2.77%	0.62%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	18.28%	4.37%	0.37%	0.04%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	4.86%	1.33%	0.20%	0.03%	—
Kansas City Chiefs	20.65%	4.44%	0.34%	—	—
New York Jets	5.04%	0.92%	0.09%	0.01%	—
San Francisco 49ers	4.51%	1.32%	0.27%	0.04%	—
St. Louis Rams	4.57%	1.34%	0.26%	0.04%	—
Miami Dolphins	0.96%	0.16%	0.01%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.22%	0.19%	0.10%	0.15%	0.07%	0.17%	0.30%	0.46%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.05%	0.79%	0.35%	0.30%
Buffalo Bills	0.25%		0.21%	0.17%	0.17%	0.08%	0.20%	0.24%	0.67%		0.13%	0.01%	0.15%	0.78%	0.57%	0.24%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.35%	0.48%		0.38%	0.55%	0.23%	0.34%	0.66%	0.84%	0.03%	0.15%	0.07%	0.10%	1.79%	1.10%	0.53%
Cleveland Browns	0.41%	0.58%	0.35%		0.74%	0.13%	0.49%	0.83%	0.89%	0.03%	0.20%	0.11%	0.09%	2.05%	1.11%	0.86%
Denver Broncos	0.48%	0.32%	0.51%	0.41%		0.26%	0.29%	0.67%	0.34%	0.04%	0.08%	0.13%	0.03%	0.50%	0.56%	0.94%
Houston Texans	0.37%	0.13%	0.27%	0.11%	0.39%		0.39%	0.22%	0.75%		0.06%	0.03%	0.09%	0.76%	0.87%	0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	2.16%	1.95%	2.23%	2.38%	1.97%	1.33%		3.85%	2.23%	0.12%	0.55%	0.54%	0.39%	3.10%	3.92%	3.52%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.22%	0.67%	1.24%	1.41%	2.06%	0.31%	1.64%		2.97%	0.06%	0.71%	0.24%	0.35%	3.49%	4.44%	0.93%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.40%	0.24%	0.33%	0.28%	0.12%	0.09%	0.17%	0.49%			0.01%	0.07%	0.01%	0.23%	0.31%	0.55%
Miami Dolphins			0.02%	0.01%	0.02%				0.03%		0.01%			0.02%	0.02%	0.01%
New England Patriots	1.90%	2.16%	2.29%	2.38%	1.02%	1.13%	1.28%	3.52%	1.33%	0.15%		0.82%	0.11%	1.57%	1.18%	2.99%
New York Jets	0.08%		0.03%	0.03%	0.08%		0.03%	0.07%	0.14%		0.05%			0.20%	0.10%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.08%	0.05%	0.04%		0.03%	0.01%	0.11%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.50%	2.97%	3.82%	3.58%	1.84%	1.43%	1.60%	4.35%	2.07%	0.16%	0.29%	1.13%	0.30%		2.01%	4.26%
San Diego Chargers	3.23%	3.28%	3.53%	3.90%	2.30%	1.73%	3.17%	7.55%	2.98%	0.20%	0.30%	0.90%	0.31%	2.82%		6.51%
Tennessee Titans	0.61%	0.40%	0.43%	0.55%	0.91%	0.07%	0.76%	0.43%	1.64%	0.01%	0.24%	0.09%	0.22%	1.47%	1.73%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.20%	0.68%	0.74%	0.78%	0.46%	0.84%	0.80%	1.22%	0.82%	0.67%	0.10%	1.34%	0.08%	1.05%	0.32%
Atlanta Falcons	0.11%			0.08%	0.07%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.13%	0.12%	0.06%	0.04%	0.08%	0.02%	0.07%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers	0.61%	0.08%		0.42%	0.30%	0.53%	0.53%	0.66%	0.40%	0.61%	0.62%	0.09%	0.51%	0.12%	0.71%	0.26%
Chicago Bears	0.73%	0.30%	0.64%		0.55%	0.21%	1.14%	0.53%	1.31%	0.64%	0.55%	0.20%	1.36%	0.17%	1.39%	0.23%
Dallas Cowboys	1.97%	0.36%	1.43%	1.67%		1.19%	1.86%	2.36%	2.66%	2.22%	1.48%	0.35%	2.16%	0.41%	2.97%	1.13%
Detroit Lions	0.34%	0.13%	0.33%	0.12%	0.18%		0.49%	0.13%	0.51%	0.20%	0.29%	0.06%	0.42%	0.10%	0.45%	0.11%
Green Bay Packers	2.25%	0.46%	1.35%	2.12%	1.89%	1.44%		2.79%	2.81%	2.59%	2.00%	0.45%	1.74%	0.59%	2.76%	1.31%
Minnesota Vikings	1.13%	0.47%	0.93%	0.49%	0.86%	0.35%	1.78%		1.87%	0.98%	0.62%	0.23%	1.76%	0.21%	1.99%	0.49%
New Orleans Saints	1.17%	0.24%	0.74%	1.03%	0.92%	0.93%	1.16%	1.40%		1.87%	1.05%	0.24%	1.04%	0.32%	2.07%	0.64%
New York Giants	1.11%	0.30%	1.16%	0.73%	1.21%	0.50%	1.30%	1.08%	1.78%		0.42%	0.26%	1.97%	0.27%	2.31%	0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.00%	0.26%	1.11%	0.67%	1.06%	0.47%	1.16%	0.87%	1.56%	0.52%		0.21%	1.77%	0.25%	1.95%	0.17%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%	0.14%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	0.08%	0.07%	0.08%	0.08%	0.09%		0.19%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%
Seattle Seahawks	2.39%	0.48%	1.29%	2.27%	1.59%	1.66%	1.74%	2.95%	2.48%	2.77%	2.15%	0.65%		0.41%	2.16%	1.51%
St. Louis Rams	0.05%		0.05%	0.05%	0.09%	0.07%	0.04%	0.11%	0.10%	0.13%	0.07%	0.01%	0.08%		0.03%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.05%	0.37%	1.29%	2.12%	1.72%	1.28%	1.60%	2.05%	2.66%	2.79%	1.94%	0.51%	1.40%	0.53%		1.01%
Washington Redskins	0.62%	0.17%	0.63%	0.39%	0.75%	0.34%	0.88%	0.65%	1.40%	0.40%	0.24%	0.07%	1.20%	0.18%	1.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%	0.01%			0.01%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%		0.08%			0.03%	0.08%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		0.02%		0.01%		0.16%	0.08%	0.02%		0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.15%	0.10%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.06%		0.03%	0.05%	0.04%	0.46%	0.23%	0.03%		0.35%	0.01%		0.28%	0.43%	0.10%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%		0.07%	0.03%	0.69%	0.19%	0.03%		0.47%	0.01%	0.01%	0.33%	0.48%	0.14%
Denver Broncos	0.08%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%		0.01%	0.20%	0.08%	0.01%		0.18%			0.20%	0.04%	0.07%
Houston Texans	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.02%		0.26%	0.03%			0.31%			0.39%	0.19%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts	1.22%	1.16%	2.52%	2.84%	1.76%	0.94%		5.91%	1.18%	0.07%	6.34%	0.22%	0.18%	13.69%	10.72%	2.58%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.27%	0.23%	0.37%	0.41%	0.33%	0.09%	2.44%		0.16%	0.01%	1.67%	0.04%	0.03%	3.18%	1.86%	0.27%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.01%				0.08%	0.03%			0.06%			0.11%	0.02%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins															0.01%
New England Patriots	1.57%	1.70%	3.54%	3.91%	2.29%	1.83%	12.82%	8.41%	1.64%	0.03%		0.33%	0.24%	18.12%	16.65%	4.24%
New York Jets							0.02%				0.01%			0.04%	0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders			0.01%			0.01%	0.02%	0.01%			0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.29%	0.60%	0.69%	0.71%	0.82%	0.67%	6.09%	2.75%	0.79%	0.03%	3.94%	0.14%	0.08%		5.38%	1.68%
San Diego Chargers	0.37%	0.42%	0.81%	0.88%	0.17%	0.26%	5.87%	1.96%	0.15%	0.01%	4.54%	0.07%		6.69%		1.21%
Tennessee Titans	0.12%	0.11%	0.13%	0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	0.67%	0.20%	0.06%		0.46%			0.91%	0.47%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%	0.15%	0.29%	0.84%	0.04%	1.08%	0.26%	0.56%	0.41%	0.14%		0.70%	0.01%	0.78%	0.12%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%			0.01%	0.07%		0.04%			0.01%	0.01%		0.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.10%	0.01%		0.14%	0.48%	0.04%	0.56%	0.17%	0.04%	0.17%	0.17%	0.01%	0.67%		0.16%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.18%	0.03%	0.21%		1.12%	0.06%	1.01%	0.21%	0.44%	0.46%	0.26%	0.03%	1.27%	0.03%	0.74%	0.12%
Dallas Cowboys	2.71%	0.31%	1.79%	2.69%		1.42%	7.77%	3.37%	3.99%	4.04%	3.17%	0.27%	8.27%	0.25%	6.24%	1.99%
Detroit Lions	0.06%	0.02%	0.06%	0.02%	0.31%		0.20%	0.07%	0.14%	0.14%	0.04%	0.01%	0.28%		0.08%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	2.48%	0.31%	1.30%	1.85%	6.07%	0.70%		2.58%	3.40%	2.82%	1.97%	0.28%	8.49%	0.28%	5.94%	1.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.61%	0.05%	0.29%	0.27%	1.76%	0.11%	1.44%		0.60%	0.63%	0.35%	0.05%	1.95%	0.07%	1.28%	0.31%
New Orleans Saints	0.45%	0.01%	0.11%	0.38%	1.56%	0.20%	1.52%	0.37%		0.53%	0.42%	0.06%	2.05%	0.02%	0.34%	0.15%
New York Giants	0.60%	0.03%	0.25%	0.32%	2.16%	0.20%	1.76%	0.57%	0.74%		0.29%	0.05%	2.00%	0.07%	1.07%	0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.37%	0.02%	0.22%	0.30%	1.90%	0.09%	1.65%	0.41%	0.58%	0.46%		0.05%	1.73%	0.04%	1.18%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers				0.01%	0.08%		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.05%		0.03%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	1.21%	0.23%	1.30%	1.99%	5.39%	1.09%	6.44%	2.75%	3.78%	2.34%	2.11%	0.09%		0.12%	5.40%	1.27%
St. Louis Rams		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%			0.03%		0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.01%	0.07%	0.15%	0.88%	2.79%	0.32%	3.19%	1.03%	0.61%	1.21%	0.76%	0.12%	3.32%	0.13%		0.41%
Washington Redskins	0.30%		0.08%	0.23%	1.36%	0.10%	1.28%	0.33%	0.47%	0.18%	0.17%	0.03%	1.38%	0.06%	0.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens				0.01%							0.02%				0.01%
Buffalo Bills			0.01%		0.01%		0.03%				0.04%			0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.01%		0.11%	0.03%			0.07%			0.03%	0.09%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns						0.01%	0.13%	0.08%	0.01%		0.17%			0.04%	0.04%	0.03%
Denver Broncos							0.01%	0.01%			0.04%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%			0.10%	0.02%			0.08%			0.06%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.06%	0.14%	0.34%	0.47%	0.18%	0.16%		1.37%	0.08%		11.95%	0.01%	0.02%	3.83%	3.43%	0.46%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.05%	0.06%	0.08%	0.07%	0.06%	0.69%		0.01%		1.47%	0.01%		0.42%	0.48%	0.04%
New England Patriots	0.19%	0.27%	1.05%	1.23%	0.54%	0.59%	23.45%	5.42%	0.18%	0.01%		0.04%	0.04%	12.19%	10.25%	1.84%
New York Jets							0.01%
Oakland Raiders			0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.07%	0.02%	0.09%	0.05%	0.11%	2.00%	0.45%	0.04%		2.71%	0.01%			0.86%	0.19%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.04%	0.19%	0.10%	0.02%	0.09%	2.18%	0.54%	0.01%		3.30%	0.01%		1.37%		0.22%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%		0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.12%		0.01%		0.18%			0.05%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.04%	0.05%	0.49%		0.30%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%	0.11%		0.23%		0.20%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons						0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.06%			0.02%	0.18%		0.14%	0.04%	0.02%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.09%		0.03%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.01%	0.05%		0.52%	0.02%	0.32%	0.09%	0.09%	0.13%	0.15%	0.01%	0.54%		0.34%	0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	1.28%	0.02%	0.77%	1.40%		0.37%	7.52%	2.07%	1.82%	1.37%	1.04%	0.07%	7.69%	0.09%	3.52%	0.72%
Detroit Lions	0.02%			0.01%	0.12%		0.05%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%			0.09%		0.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.86%	0.03%	0.39%	0.53%	6.51%	0.17%		0.87%	1.30%	1.63%	1.38%	0.06%	5.04%	0.03%	2.22%	1.11%
Minnesota Vikings	0.18%		0.05%	0.13%	1.16%	0.05%	0.44%		0.26%	0.36%	0.23%	0.01%	0.74%	0.01%	0.41%	0.13%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%		0.08%	0.17%	0.75%	0.04%	0.56%	0.09%		0.22%	0.13%		0.56%		0.16%	0.10%
New York Giants	0.18%		0.08%	0.25%	0.71%	0.06%	1.11%	0.35%	0.17%		0.14%	0.01%	0.85%	0.03%	0.46%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.25%	0.03%	0.11%	0.20%	0.74%	0.08%	0.85%	0.33%	0.27%	0.20%			0.86%	0.03%	0.49%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers						0.01%	0.01%				0.01%				0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.36%	0.06%	0.34%	0.66%	5.14%	0.21%	4.05%	1.06%	0.84%	1.15%	0.93%	0.02%			1.44%	0.68%
St. Louis Rams					0.02%		0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%		0.07%	0.23%	1.59%	0.06%	1.31%	0.35%	0.19%	0.51%	0.38%	0.04%	1.12%	0.03%		0.24%
Washington Redskins	0.09%	0.02%	0.09%	0.09%	0.60%	0.04%	0.80%	0.21%	0.11%	0.13%	0.08%		0.75%		0.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals														0.07%	0.01%		0.13%					0.03%	0.04%					0.01%
Baltimore Ravens												0.01%
Buffalo Bills									0.02%			0.01%						0.01%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers				0.01%						0.01%				0.04%			0.02%					0.04%	0.02%
Chicago Bears								0.01%					0.01%	0.14%	0.01%		0.28%					0.05%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals									0.04%			0.04%				0.01%		0.02%							0.05%		0.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%					0.01%			0.03%		0.01%	0.06%				0.02%		0.01%	0.02%						0.07%		0.02%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys				0.01%			0.05%	0.09%		0.01%			0.08%	2.16%	0.51%		4.19%					0.84%	1.12%					0.08%
Denver Broncos									0.03%			0.01%									0.01%				0.01%
Detroit Lions								0.01%									0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.01%	0.03%			0.04%	0.07%					0.01%	1.55%	0.30%		2.84%			0.01%		0.56%	0.73%					0.08%
Houston Texans									0.07%			0.05%						0.01%	0.02%		0.02%				0.03%				0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.41%	0.01%			0.09%	0.51%			4.50%		0.09%	3.52%				0.63%		0.50%	0.75%		0.74%				2.69%		1.00%		0.54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%				0.02%	0.04%			0.62%		0.02%	0.45%				0.03%		0.08%	0.06%		0.08%				0.42%		0.11%		0.05%
Minnesota Vikings								0.02%						0.28%	0.02%		0.48%					0.10%	0.14%					0.01%
New England Patriots	0.81%	0.02%			0.35%	1.08%			12.88%		0.19%	9.87%				1.94%		1.53%	2.25%		2.00%			0.04%	7.98%	0.04%	3.04%		1.41%
New Orleans Saints				0.01%										0.10%	0.04%		0.23%					0.04%	0.11%
New York Giants				0.01%			0.01%	0.02%					0.02%	0.20%	0.07%		0.40%					0.17%	0.12%					0.01%
Oakland Raiders																									0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles							0.01%							0.29%	0.06%		0.45%					0.23%	0.12%					0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%				0.03%	0.10%			1.08%		0.02%	0.93%				0.12%		0.14%	0.16%		0.19%				0.63%		0.23%		0.12%
San Diego Chargers	0.12%				0.03%	0.13%			1.29%		0.03%	0.93%				0.35%		0.13%	0.17%		0.28%				0.87%		0.48%		0.10%
Seattle Seahawks			0.01%				0.05%	0.01%					0.03%	1.14%	0.26%		1.73%					0.42%	0.44%					0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.01%				0.02%						0.01%	0.30%	0.06%		0.57%					0.23%	0.23%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%				0.02%	0.02%			0.05%			0.02%				0.01%									0.02%
Washington Redskins								0.01%		0.02%			0.01%	0.25%	0.08%		0.53%					0.11%	0.09%					0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	83.69%	61.12%	47.66%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	68.38%	24.50%	16.54%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	63.89%	40.33%	11.71%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	62.08%	26.99%	7.20%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	78.07%	24.63%	6.78%	4.07%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Washington Redskins	48.79%	20.50%	10.70%	3.49%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Seattle Seahawks	51.21%	21.22%	10.01%	2.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.67%	11.33%	3.83%	2.07%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	44.33%	9.54%	3.19%	1.86%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	54.64%	16.85%	6.09%	1.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	45.36%	15.46%	5.88%	1.20%	Won Super Bowl
Tennessee Titans	21.93%	2.43%	0.58%	0.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Jacksonville Jaguars	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars		44.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.67%
San Diego Chargers				78.07%
Tennessee Titans			21.93%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
New York Giants			45.36%
Seattle Seahawks				51.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	54.64%
Washington Redskins		48.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts		6.54%		8.40%	53.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.18%		6.36%
New England Patriots		28.25%		35.94%		19.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.81%		7.52%
San Diego Chargers	24.63%
Tennessee Titans			2.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			15.85%		19.75%	28.29%
Green Bay Packers			14.05%	29.99%	18.04%
New York Giants	7.58%	7.88%
Seattle Seahawks		21.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.03%	8.82%
Washington Redskins	20.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts		3.02%	16.78%	3.36%		1.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.46%		0.62%		0.89%	0.22%
New England Patriots	40.33%	2.25%		2.61%	15.93%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.72%		0.79%		1.03%	0.29%
San Diego Chargers		0.99%	4.38%	1.41%
Tennessee Titans	0.37%	0.09%		0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		24.80%	3.04%	8.95%	3.54%
Green Bay Packers	14.72%		2.78%		2.89%	6.60%
New York Giants	1.71%	1.63%		1.11%		1.43%
Seattle Seahawks	5.69%		2.06%		2.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.44%	1.73%		1.15%		1.77%
Washington Redskins		6.93%	1.70%		2.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	New York Giants	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			3.51%	0.64%	5.65%		0.68%	1.12%			0.11%
Green Bay Packers			2.02%	0.31%	3.68%		0.46%	0.67%			0.06%
Indianapolis Colts	6.23%	4.86%				1.05%			1.56%	1.05%		1.79%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.67%	0.56%				0.14%			0.16%	0.16%		0.17%
New England Patriots	19.10%	12.68%				3.12%			4.89%	3.16%		4.71%
New York Giants			0.35%	0.06%	0.56%		0.11%	0.10%			0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.85%	0.58%				0.07%			0.24%	0.19%		0.14%
San Diego Chargers	1.65%	1.05%				0.28%			0.43%	0.27%		0.39%
Seattle Seahawks			0.74%	0.05%	1.38%		0.21%	0.28%			0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.36%	0.08%	0.59%		0.10%	0.11%			0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.12%	0.06%				0.02%			0.03%	0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins			0.98%	0.19%	1.60%		0.20%	0.43%			0.09%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 47.66% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

42.94%

Win Prob

82.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

65.98%

Win Prob

70.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.08%

Win Prob

77.17%

Indianapolis Colts 16.54% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

78.15%

Win Prob

68.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

68.49%

Win Prob

29.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

37.67%

Win Prob

63.96%

Dallas Cowboys 11.71% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

44.28%

Win Prob

57.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

61.49%

Win Prob

62.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.25%

Win Prob

22.83%

Green Bay Packers 7.20% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

48.31%

Win Prob

58.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

54.54%

Win Prob

37.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

51.11%

Win Prob

22.49%

San Diego Chargers 4.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

78.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

64.60%

Win Prob

21.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.54%

Win Prob

59.57%

Washington Redskins 3.49% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

64.77%

Win Prob

51.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.85%

Win Prob

25.36%

Seattle Seahawks 2.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

56.84%

Win Prob

38.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

51.11%

Win Prob

22.01%

Pittsburgh Steelers 2.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

66.37%

Win Prob

17.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

44.91%

Win Prob

33.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.06%

Win Prob

55.56%

Jacksonville Jaguars 1.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

66.67%

Win Prob

18.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

45.77%

Win Prob

32.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

36.02%

Win Prob

51.15%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.64%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

52.34%

Win Prob

32.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

29.06%

Win Prob

46.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.20%

Win Prob

15.73%

New York Giants 1.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.36%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

50.97%

Win Prob

35.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

29.08%

Win Prob

36.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.67%

Win Prob

15.22%

Tennessee Titans 0.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

11.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

63.79%

Win Prob

21.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

48.00%

Win Prob

52.17%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2007-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1461.98	1449.36	44.07%	55.70%	-15.21	0-1
2007-09-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1446.77	1532.87	45.17%	54.60%	+18.84	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-26	1465.61	1559.56	29.90%	69.86%	-10.33	1-2
2007-09-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-14	1455.28	1640.06	31.82%	67.95%	+35.81	2-2
2007-10-07	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-31	1491.09	1380.25	58.10%	41.67%	+14.38	3-2
2007-10-14	Carolina Panthers	L 10-25	1505.47	1494.34	59.04%	40.73%	-45.54	3-3
2007-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 19-21	1459.93	1514.09	34.91%	64.85%	-9.85	3-4
2007-11-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-17	1450.08	1492.31	36.49%	63.28%	-19.25	3-5
2007-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1430.83	1538.24	42.15%	57.62%	+36.30	4-5
2007-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-27	1467.13	1472.10	41.59%	58.18%	+32.78	5-5
2007-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 31-37	1499.91	1279.81	82.66%	17.11%	-40.34	5-6
2007-12-02	Cleveland Browns	W 27-21	1459.57	1534.17	46.81%	52.96%	+25.85	6-6
2007-12-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-42	1485.42	1573.25	30.65%	69.12%	-28.01	6-7
2007-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1457.41	1520.68	33.73%	66.03%	-17.80	6-8
2007-12-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1439.61	1277.48	77.40%	22.37%	+7.73	7-8
2007-12-30	St. Louis Rams	W 48-19	1447.34	1330.39	72.56%	27.21%	+29.22	8-8
2007-09-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-24	1464.40	1462.01	42.62%	57.15%	-38.94	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-13	1425.46	1515.34	30.40%	69.37%	-14.85	0-2
2007-09-23	Carolina Panthers	L 20-27	1410.61	1499.27	44.80%	54.97%	-23.62	0-3
2007-09-30	Houston Texans	W 26-16	1386.99	1518.38	38.83%	60.94%	+38.39	1-3
2007-10-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-20	1425.38	1540.94	27.36%	72.40%	-14.45	1-4
2007-10-15	New York Giants	L 10-31	1410.93	1516.12	42.46%	57.30%	-38.78	1-5
2007-10-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-22	1372.15	1430.11	34.42%	65.35%	-16.81	1-6
2007-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-16	1355.34	1336.45	60.11%	39.66%	+15.81	2-6
2007-11-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-13	1371.15	1484.73	27.59%	72.18%	+38.03	3-6
2007-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-31	1409.18	1511.56	42.86%	56.91%	-41.85	3-7
2007-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-31	1367.33	1728.91	14.43%	85.33%	-12.22	3-8
2007-12-02	@ St. Louis Rams	L 16-28	1355.11	1353.68	42.49%	57.28%	-29.34	3-9
2007-12-10	New Orleans Saints	L 14-34	1325.77	1489.96	34.45%	65.32%	-30.72	3-10
2007-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-37	1295.05	1540.97	15.10%	84.67%	-17.57	3-11
2007-12-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 27-30	1277.48	1439.61	22.37%	77.40%	-7.73	3-12
2007-12-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-41	1269.75	1592.24	17.44%	82.33%	+9.47	4-12
2007-09-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-27	1569.11	1522.99	48.86%	50.90%	-25.76	0-1
2007-09-16	New York Jets	W 20-13	1543.35	1456.13	69.04%	30.72%	+16.21	1-1
2007-09-23	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-23	1559.56	1465.61	69.86%	29.90%	+10.34	2-1
2007-09-30	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-27	1569.90	1407.59	65.07%	34.69%	-48.50	2-2
2007-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 9-7	1521.40	1411.55	57.96%	41.81%	+11.78	3-2
2007-10-14	St. Louis Rams	W 22-3	1533.18	1365.86	77.91%	21.85%	+19.01	4-2
2007-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-19	1552.19	1454.57	56.24%	43.53%	-25.05	4-3
2007-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-38	1527.14	1638.29	27.87%	71.90%	-30.96	4-4
2007-11-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-21	1496.18	1421.84	67.45%	32.32%	-50.26	4-5
2007-11-18	Cleveland Browns	L 30-33	1445.92	1491.86	50.93%	48.84%	-17.58	4-6
2007-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-32	1428.34	1549.59	26.72%	73.05%	-22.61	4-7
2007-12-03	New England Patriots	L 24-27	1405.73	1850.40	9.47%	90.30%	-3.27	4-8
2007-12-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-44	1402.46	1751.12	15.38%	84.39%	-15.04	4-9
2007-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-22	1387.42	1231.69	64.21%	35.55%	-31.33	4-10
2007-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-27	1356.09	1576.63	17.07%	82.70%	-15.61	4-11
2007-12-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-21	1340.48	1637.35	19.67%	80.10%	+13.03	5-11
2007-09-09	Denver Broncos	L 14-15	1507.00	1526.96	54.65%	45.11%	-10.89	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-26	1496.11	1589.02	30.03%	69.74%	-28.73	0-2
2007-09-23	@ New England Patriots	L 7-38	1467.38	1663.27	19.18%	80.59%	-21.30	0-3
2007-09-30	New York Jets	W 17-14	1446.08	1454.22	56.33%	43.44%	+14.99	1-3
2007-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-25	1461.07	1639.54	32.62%	67.15%	-6.50	1-4
2007-10-21	Baltimore Ravens	W 19-14	1454.57	1552.19	43.53%	56.24%	+25.05	2-4
2007-10-28	@ New York Jets	W 13-3	1479.62	1373.47	57.44%	42.33%	+26.68	3-4
2007-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-21	1506.30	1445.35	65.74%	34.03%	+23.51	4-4
2007-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1529.81	1321.12	70.85%	28.91%	+9.99	5-4
2007-11-18	New England Patriots	L 10-56	1539.80	1817.74	21.45%	78.32%	-29.02	5-5
2007-11-25	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-36	1510.78	1611.50	29.09%	70.67%	-27.22	5-6
2007-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-16	1483.56	1458.03	45.91%	53.86%	+10.73	6-6
2007-12-09	Miami Dolphins	W 38-17	1494.29	1245.30	84.89%	14.88%	+13.61	7-6
2007-12-16	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-8	1507.90	1529.11	39.34%	60.43%	-22.19	7-7
2007-12-23	New York Giants	L 21-38	1485.71	1502.06	55.17%	44.60%	-45.31	7-8
2007-12-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-17	1440.40	1565.46	26.29%	73.48%	-14.84	7-9
2007-09-09	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-13	1504.80	1485.34	45.04%	54.73%	+40.79	1-0
2007-09-16	Houston Texans	L 21-34	1545.59	1494.19	64.49%	35.28%	-46.32	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1499.27	1410.61	54.97%	44.80%	+23.63	2-1
2007-09-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-20	1522.90	1492.79	61.65%	38.12%	-44.27	2-2
2007-10-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-13	1478.63	1395.06	54.24%	45.53%	+15.71	3-2
2007-10-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 25-10	1494.34	1505.47	40.73%	59.04%	+45.55	4-2
2007-10-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-31	1539.89	1735.55	30.48%	69.29%	-29.78	4-3
2007-11-04	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-20	1510.11	1561.30	35.31%	64.46%	-25.38	4-4
2007-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1484.73	1371.15	72.18%	27.59%	-38.04	4-5
2007-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-31	1446.69	1643.67	19.08%	80.69%	-14.24	4-6
2007-11-25	New Orleans Saints	L 6-31	1432.45	1455.48	54.22%	45.55%	-54.01	4-7
2007-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-14	1378.44	1320.14	65.39%	34.38%	+28.26	5-7
2007-12-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-37	1406.70	1628.74	16.95%	82.82%	-18.83	5-8
2007-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1387.87	1601.26	28.36%	71.41%	+24.63	6-8
2007-12-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1412.50	1702.75	20.28%	79.49%	-10.70	6-9
2007-12-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1401.80	1537.36	25.14%	74.63%	+14.01	7-9
2007-09-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-14	1563.72	1581.55	39.80%	59.96%	-26.32	0-1
2007-09-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1537.40	1475.40	65.87%	33.90%	+21.38	1-1
2007-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-34	1558.78	1566.80	56.35%	43.42%	-55.00	1-2
2007-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-37	1503.78	1445.49	50.61%	49.15%	-31.89	1-3
2007-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1471.89	1586.05	27.52%	72.24%	+38.07	2-3
2007-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-34	1509.96	1446.11	66.11%	33.66%	-22.81	2-4
2007-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-16	1487.15	1515.81	38.32%	61.45%	+21.20	3-4
2007-10-28	Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1508.35	1460.92	63.97%	35.80%	-38.22	3-5
2007-11-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-6	1470.13	1362.35	57.67%	42.10%	+27.83	4-5
2007-11-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-30	1497.96	1515.72	39.81%	59.95%	-21.00	4-6
2007-11-25	Denver Broncos	W 37-34	1476.96	1483.34	56.58%	43.19%	+14.91	5-6
2007-12-02	New York Giants	L 16-21	1491.87	1505.46	55.56%	44.21%	-24.75	5-7
2007-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-24	1467.12	1447.30	45.09%	54.68%	-25.42	5-8
2007-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-20	1441.70	1591.57	23.62%	76.15%	-12.47	5-9
2007-12-23	Green Bay Packers	W 35-7	1429.23	1686.90	23.48%	76.29%	+80.41	6-9
2007-12-30	New Orleans Saints	W 33-25	1509.64	1492.04	59.93%	39.84%	+22.46	7-9
2007-09-10	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-20	1522.99	1569.11	50.90%	48.86%	+25.76	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns	L 45-51	1548.75	1390.39	64.56%	35.21%	-31.50	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1517.25	1514.03	42.74%	57.03%	-14.76	1-2
2007-10-01	New England Patriots	L 13-34	1502.49	1684.58	32.16%	67.61%	-29.39	1-3
2007-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1473.10	1488.26	40.17%	59.59%	-21.18	1-4
2007-10-21	New York Jets	W 38-31	1451.92	1391.46	65.67%	34.10%	+17.98	2-4
2007-10-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1469.90	1613.74	37.14%	62.63%	-24.55	2-5
2007-11-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-33	1445.35	1506.30	34.03%	65.74%	-23.51	2-6
2007-11-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 21-7	1421.84	1496.18	32.32%	67.45%	+50.26	3-6
2007-11-18	Arizona Cardinals	L 27-35	1472.10	1467.13	58.18%	41.59%	-32.78	3-7
2007-11-25	Tennessee Titans	W 35-6	1439.32	1495.82	49.41%	50.36%	+54.04	4-7
2007-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1493.36	1650.87	22.83%	76.93%	-17.05	4-8
2007-12-09	St. Louis Rams	W 19-10	1476.31	1383.02	69.78%	29.98%	+17.94	5-8
2007-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-20	1494.25	1272.99	72.32%	27.45%	-38.11	5-9
2007-12-23	Cleveland Browns	W 19-14	1456.14	1551.30	43.88%	55.89%	+24.90	6-9
2007-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-25	1481.04	1261.08	72.17%	27.60%	+19.85	7-9
2007-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1433.26	1546.15	41.38%	58.38%	-42.87	0-1
2007-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 51-45	1390.39	1548.75	35.21%	64.56%	+31.50	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-26	1421.89	1362.70	50.74%	49.03%	-14.30	1-2
2007-09-30	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-13	1407.59	1569.90	34.69%	65.07%	+48.50	2-2
2007-10-07	@ New England Patriots	L 17-34	1456.09	1713.97	14.24%	85.53%	-11.72	2-3
2007-10-14	Miami Dolphins	W 41-31	1444.37	1356.46	69.13%	30.64%	+19.33	3-3
2007-10-28	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-20	1463.70	1321.12	62.46%	37.31%	+19.68	4-3
2007-11-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-30	1483.38	1510.98	53.56%	46.20%	+15.95	5-3
2007-11-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-31	1499.33	1669.25	21.60%	78.17%	-7.47	5-4
2007-11-18	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 33-30	1491.86	1445.92	48.84%	50.93%	+17.58	6-4
2007-11-25	Houston Texans	W 27-17	1509.44	1487.37	60.55%	39.22%	+24.73	7-4
2007-12-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-27	1534.17	1459.57	52.96%	46.81%	-25.85	7-5
2007-12-09	@ New York Jets	W 24-18	1508.32	1404.01	57.18%	42.59%	+20.79	8-5
2007-12-16	Buffalo Bills	W 8-0	1529.11	1507.90	60.43%	39.34%	+22.19	9-5
2007-12-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-19	1551.30	1456.14	55.89%	43.88%	-24.90	9-6
2007-12-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-7	1526.40	1332.29	80.43%	19.33%	+13.91	10-6
2007-09-09	New York Giants	W 45-35	1499.15	1495.44	58.00%	41.77%	+26.33	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	W 37-20	1525.48	1475.11	49.47%	50.29%	+41.32	2-0
2007-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-10	1566.80	1558.78	43.42%	56.35%	+54.99	3-0
2007-09-30	St. Louis Rams	W 35-7	1621.79	1398.00	82.96%	16.81%	+17.75	4-0
2007-10-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1639.54	1461.07	67.15%	32.62%	+6.51	5-0
2007-10-14	New England Patriots	L 27-48	1646.05	1725.69	46.09%	53.68%	-42.10	5-1
2007-10-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1603.95	1468.91	74.58%	25.19%	+15.90	6-1
2007-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-17	1619.85	1521.79	56.30%	43.47%	+39.70	7-1
2007-11-11	@ New York Giants	W 31-20	1659.55	1581.15	53.50%	46.27%	+30.58	8-1
2007-11-18	Washington Redskins	W 28-23	1690.13	1481.55	81.70%	18.07%	+8.07	9-1
2007-11-22	New York Jets	W 34-3	1698.20	1363.54	90.12%	9.64%	+10.72	10-1
2007-11-29	Green Bay Packers	W 37-27	1708.92	1679.31	61.58%	38.19%	+24.07	11-1
2007-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-27	1732.99	1420.40	81.49%	18.28%	+3.65	12-1
2007-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-10	1736.64	1485.14	85.07%	14.69%	-33.89	12-2
2007-12-22	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-13	1702.75	1412.50	79.49%	20.28%	+10.70	13-2
2007-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-27	1713.45	1564.81	63.27%	36.49%	-57.75	13-3
2007-09-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 15-14	1526.96	1507.00	45.11%	54.65%	+10.88	1-0
2007-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1537.84	1370.25	77.94%	21.83%	+7.55	2-0
2007-09-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-23	1545.39	1530.19	59.60%	40.17%	-35.62	2-1
2007-09-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-38	1509.77	1647.58	24.89%	74.87%	-21.07	2-2
2007-10-07	San Diego Chargers	L 3-41	1488.70	1493.97	56.74%	43.03%	-69.68	2-3
2007-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1419.02	1638.62	27.64%	72.13%	+24.89	3-3
2007-10-29	Green Bay Packers	L 13-19	1443.91	1561.61	40.71%	59.05%	-19.88	3-4
2007-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-44	1424.03	1499.14	32.23%	67.54%	-39.09	3-5
2007-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-11	1384.94	1489.37	28.66%	71.11%	+56.65	4-5
2007-11-19	Tennessee Titans	W 34-20	1441.59	1537.57	43.76%	56.00%	+41.75	5-5
2007-11-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 34-37	1483.34	1476.96	43.19%	56.58%	-14.91	5-6
2007-12-02	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-34	1468.43	1344.95	59.85%	39.91%	-44.61	5-7
2007-12-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-7	1423.82	1378.57	63.68%	36.09%	+41.96	6-7
2007-12-13	@ Houston Texans	L 13-31	1465.78	1484.55	39.67%	60.09%	-33.56	6-8
2007-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-23	1432.22	1639.40	18.19%	81.58%	-16.23	6-9
2007-12-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-19	1415.99	1558.63	37.30%	62.47%	+21.55	7-9
2007-09-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 36-21	1443.10	1411.09	46.84%	52.93%	+40.85	1-0
2007-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1483.95	1500.95	55.08%	44.69%	+15.43	2-0
2007-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-56	1499.38	1475.27	45.70%	54.06%	-53.89	2-1
2007-09-30	Chicago Bears	W 37-27	1445.49	1503.78	49.15%	50.61%	+31.89	3-1
2007-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-34	1477.38	1481.41	41.72%	58.05%	-46.31	3-2
2007-10-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-16	1431.07	1531.42	43.15%	56.62%	+29.85	4-2
2007-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-7	1460.92	1508.35	35.80%	63.97%	+38.22	5-2
2007-11-04	Denver Broncos	W 44-7	1499.14	1424.03	67.54%	32.23%	+39.10	6-2
2007-11-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-31	1538.24	1430.83	57.62%	42.15%	-36.30	6-3
2007-11-18	New York Giants	L 10-16	1501.94	1550.57	50.55%	49.22%	-24.67	6-4
2007-11-22	Green Bay Packers	L 26-37	1477.27	1657.92	32.34%	67.43%	-21.39	6-5
2007-12-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-42	1455.88	1537.19	31.45%	68.32%	-35.48	6-6
2007-12-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-28	1420.40	1732.99	18.28%	81.49%	-3.65	6-7
2007-12-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-51	1416.75	1616.54	18.83%	80.94%	-22.86	6-8
2007-12-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 25-20	1393.89	1311.76	68.42%	31.35%	+13.98	7-8
2007-12-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1407.87	1606.49	18.93%	80.83%	-17.31	7-9
2007-09-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1469.39	1527.08	49.24%	50.53%	+17.43	1-0
2007-09-16	@ New York Giants	W 35-13	1486.82	1469.12	44.79%	54.98%	+51.38	2-0
2007-09-23	San Diego Chargers	W 31-24	1538.20	1568.79	53.13%	46.63%	+24.58	3-0
2007-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-16	1562.78	1469.38	55.64%	44.13%	+23.27	4-0
2007-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 20-27	1586.05	1471.89	72.24%	27.52%	-38.07	4-1
2007-10-14	Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1547.98	1527.72	60.30%	39.47%	+13.63	5-1
2007-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-13	1561.61	1443.91	59.05%	40.71%	+19.88	6-1
2007-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-22	1581.49	1521.71	50.83%	48.94%	+32.35	7-1
2007-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-0	1613.84	1483.00	74.12%	25.65%	+29.83	8-1
2007-11-18	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1643.67	1446.69	80.69%	19.08%	+14.25	9-1
2007-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-26	1657.92	1477.27	67.43%	32.34%	+21.39	10-1
2007-11-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-37	1679.31	1708.92	38.19%	61.58%	-24.08	10-2
2007-12-09	Oakland Raiders	W 38-7	1655.23	1389.57	86.07%	13.70%	+15.23	11-2
2007-12-16	@ St. Louis Rams	W 33-14	1670.46	1365.08	80.86%	18.91%	+16.44	12-2
2007-12-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-35	1686.90	1429.23	76.29%	23.48%	-80.41	12-3
2007-12-30	Detroit Lions	W 34-13	1606.49	1407.87	80.83%	18.93%	+17.32	13-3
2007-09-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-3	1451.67	1517.92	48.01%	51.76%	+42.52	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-21	1494.19	1545.59	35.28%	64.49%	+46.32	2-0
2007-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-30	1540.51	1625.45	45.33%	54.44%	-22.13	2-1
2007-09-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-26	1518.38	1386.99	60.94%	38.83%	-38.39	2-2
2007-10-07	Miami Dolphins	W 22-19	1479.99	1365.98	72.23%	27.54%	+9.52	3-2
2007-10-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-37	1489.51	1597.95	28.19%	71.58%	-25.15	3-3
2007-10-21	Tennessee Titans	L 36-38	1464.36	1538.79	46.84%	52.93%	-13.20	3-4
2007-10-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-35	1451.16	1582.61	25.59%	74.18%	-25.52	3-5
2007-11-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-17	1425.64	1389.98	47.36%	52.41%	+27.63	4-5
2007-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1453.27	1489.57	52.32%	47.45%	+34.10	5-5
2007-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-27	1487.37	1509.44	39.22%	60.55%	-24.73	5-6
2007-12-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-28	1462.64	1441.79	45.24%	54.53%	-25.50	5-7
2007-12-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-14	1437.14	1588.39	36.15%	63.62%	+47.41	6-7
2007-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 31-13	1484.55	1465.78	60.09%	39.67%	+33.56	7-7
2007-12-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-38	1518.11	1772.71	14.47%	85.30%	-4.62	7-8
2007-12-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 42-28	1513.49	1691.48	32.68%	67.09%	+50.00	8-8
2007-09-06	New Orleans Saints	W 41-10	1575.56	1514.00	65.81%	33.95%	+37.69	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Tennessee Titans	W 22-20	1613.25	1513.80	56.50%	43.27%	+12.20	2-0
2007-09-23	@ Houston Texans	W 30-24	1625.45	1540.51	54.44%	45.33%	+22.13	3-0
2007-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 38-20	1647.58	1509.77	74.87%	24.89%	+21.07	4-0
2007-10-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1668.65	1537.06	74.20%	25.57%	+22.24	5-0
2007-10-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 29-7	1690.89	1623.09	51.98%	47.79%	+44.66	6-0
2007-10-28	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-7	1735.55	1539.89	69.29%	30.48%	+29.78	7-0
2007-11-04	New England Patriots	L 20-24	1765.33	1796.61	53.04%	46.73%	-21.13	7-1
2007-11-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-23	1744.20	1550.97	68.99%	30.78%	-19.43	7-2
2007-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1724.77	1432.71	87.77%	12.00%	+4.14	8-2
2007-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-13	1728.91	1367.33	85.33%	14.43%	+12.23	9-2
2007-12-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-25	1741.14	1638.72	70.87%	28.89%	+9.98	10-2
2007-12-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 44-20	1751.12	1402.46	84.39%	15.38%	+15.03	11-2
2007-12-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1766.15	1374.34	87.35%	12.41%	+6.56	12-2
2007-12-23	Houston Texans	W 38-15	1772.71	1518.11	85.30%	14.47%	+4.62	13-2
2007-12-30	Tennessee Titans	L 10-16	1777.33	1485.10	87.78%	11.99%	-14.28	13-3
2007-09-09	Tennessee Titans	L 10-13	1537.33	1491.82	63.71%	36.06%	-21.99	0-1
2007-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-7	1515.34	1425.46	69.37%	30.40%	+14.85	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-14	1530.19	1545.39	40.17%	59.60%	+35.62	2-1
2007-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1565.81	1520.40	48.76%	51.01%	+32.14	3-1
2007-10-14	Houston Texans	W 37-17	1597.95	1489.51	71.58%	28.19%	+25.14	4-1
2007-10-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-29	1623.09	1690.89	47.79%	51.98%	-44.66	4-2
2007-10-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-23	1578.43	1501.57	53.28%	46.49%	+9.26	5-2
2007-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-41	1587.69	1490.71	56.15%	43.62%	-46.12	5-3
2007-11-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 28-13	1541.57	1586.68	36.11%	63.66%	+49.11	6-3
2007-11-18	San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1590.68	1570.40	60.30%	39.47%	+20.82	7-3
2007-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 36-14	1611.50	1510.78	70.67%	29.09%	+27.22	8-3
2007-12-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 25-28	1638.72	1741.14	28.89%	70.87%	-9.98	8-4
2007-12-09	Carolina Panthers	W 37-6	1628.74	1406.70	82.82%	16.95%	+18.83	9-4
2007-12-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-22	1647.57	1649.54	42.01%	57.76%	+30.44	10-4
2007-12-23	Oakland Raiders	W 49-11	1678.01	1367.78	88.83%	10.94%	+13.47	11-4
2007-12-30	@ Houston Texans	L 28-42	1691.48	1513.49	67.09%	32.68%	-50.01	11-5
2007-09-09	@ Houston Texans	L 3-20	1517.92	1451.67	51.76%	48.01%	-42.52	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1475.40	1537.40	33.90%	65.87%	-21.37	0-2
2007-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1454.03	1485.52	53.01%	46.76%	+16.14	1-2
2007-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-16	1470.17	1544.20	32.36%	67.41%	+50.23	2-2
2007-10-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-17	1520.40	1565.81	51.01%	48.76%	-32.14	2-3
2007-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1488.26	1473.10	59.59%	40.17%	+21.19	3-3
2007-10-21	@ Oakland Raiders	W 12-10	1509.45	1411.55	56.28%	43.49%	+12.26	4-3
2007-11-04	Green Bay Packers	L 22-33	1521.71	1581.49	48.94%	50.83%	-32.34	4-4
2007-11-11	Denver Broncos	L 11-27	1489.37	1384.94	71.11%	28.66%	-56.66	4-5
2007-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-13	1432.71	1724.77	12.00%	87.77%	-4.15	4-6
2007-11-25	Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1428.56	1320.26	71.56%	28.20%	-24.69	4-7
2007-12-02	San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1403.87	1572.20	33.91%	65.86%	-25.30	4-8
2007-12-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-41	1378.57	1423.82	36.09%	63.68%	-41.96	4-9
2007-12-16	Tennessee Titans	L 17-26	1336.61	1448.25	41.56%	58.21%	-24.85	4-10
2007-12-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-25	1311.76	1393.89	31.35%	68.42%	-13.98	4-11
2007-12-30	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1297.78	1368.56	32.77%	66.99%	-11.32	4-12
2007-09-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1490.79	1468.62	45.43%	54.34%	-15.68	0-1
2007-09-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-37	1475.11	1525.48	50.29%	49.47%	-41.32	0-2
2007-09-23	@ New York Jets	L 28-31	1433.79	1439.92	41.43%	58.34%	-14.31	0-3
2007-09-30	Oakland Raiders	L 17-35	1419.48	1377.00	63.31%	36.46%	-53.50	0-4
2007-10-07	@ Houston Texans	L 19-22	1365.98	1479.99	27.54%	72.23%	-9.52	0-5
2007-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns	L 31-41	1356.46	1444.37	30.64%	69.13%	-19.32	0-6
2007-10-21	New England Patriots	L 28-49	1337.14	1767.78	10.18%	89.59%	-9.31	0-7
2007-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1327.83	1574.44	19.40%	80.37%	-6.71	0-8
2007-11-11	Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1321.12	1529.81	28.91%	70.85%	-9.99	0-9
2007-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-17	1311.13	1517.15	18.29%	81.48%	-11.54	0-10
2007-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-3	1299.59	1647.77	8.99%	90.78%	-3.10	0-11
2007-12-02	New York Jets	L 13-40	1296.49	1352.82	49.44%	50.33%	-51.19	0-12
2007-12-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-38	1245.30	1494.29	14.88%	84.89%	-13.61	0-13
2007-12-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 22-16	1231.69	1387.42	35.55%	64.21%	+31.33	1-13
2007-12-23	@ New England Patriots	L 7-28	1263.02	1874.71	2.12%	97.65%	-1.94	1-14
2007-12-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 25-38	1261.08	1481.04	27.60%	72.17%	-19.85	1-15
2007-09-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-3	1462.01	1464.40	57.15%	42.62%	+38.94	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1500.95	1483.95	44.69%	55.08%	-15.43	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-13	1485.52	1454.03	46.76%	53.01%	-16.14	1-2
2007-09-30	Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1469.38	1562.78	44.13%	55.64%	-23.27	1-3
2007-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-31	1446.11	1509.96	33.66%	66.11%	+22.80	2-3
2007-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1468.91	1603.95	25.19%	74.58%	-15.89	2-4
2007-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-23	1453.02	1494.61	51.56%	48.21%	-27.18	2-5
2007-11-04	San Diego Chargers	W 35-17	1425.84	1608.12	32.13%	67.63%	+57.16	3-5
2007-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-34	1483.00	1613.84	25.65%	74.12%	-29.84	3-6
2007-11-18	Oakland Raiders	W 29-22	1453.16	1334.52	72.75%	27.01%	+14.26	4-6
2007-11-25	@ New York Giants	W 41-17	1467.42	1575.23	28.26%	71.51%	+69.77	5-6
2007-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 42-10	1537.19	1455.88	68.32%	31.45%	+35.49	6-6
2007-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-7	1572.68	1291.88	78.60%	21.17%	+18.89	7-6
2007-12-17	Chicago Bears	W 20-13	1591.57	1441.70	76.15%	23.62%	+12.46	8-6
2007-12-23	Washington Redskins	L 21-32	1604.03	1519.41	68.73%	31.04%	-45.40	8-7
2007-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-22	1558.63	1415.99	62.47%	37.30%	-21.55	8-8
2007-09-09	@ New York Jets	W 38-14	1578.89	1501.44	53.37%	46.40%	+45.31	1-0
2007-09-16	San Diego Chargers	W 38-14	1624.20	1607.87	59.76%	40.01%	+39.07	2-0
2007-09-23	Buffalo Bills	W 38-7	1663.27	1467.38	80.59%	19.18%	+21.31	3-0
2007-10-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-13	1684.58	1502.49	67.61%	32.16%	+29.39	4-0
2007-10-07	Cleveland Browns	W 34-17	1713.97	1456.09	85.53%	14.24%	+11.72	5-0
2007-10-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 48-27	1725.69	1646.05	53.68%	46.09%	+42.09	6-0
2007-10-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 49-28	1767.78	1337.14	89.59%	10.18%	+9.32	7-0
2007-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 52-7	1777.10	1523.93	85.19%	14.58%	+19.51	8-0
2007-11-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-20	1796.61	1765.33	46.73%	53.04%	+21.13	9-0
2007-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 56-10	1817.74	1539.80	78.32%	21.45%	+29.03	10-0
2007-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-28	1846.77	1528.70	89.26%	10.51%	+3.63	11-0
2007-12-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1850.40	1405.73	90.30%	9.47%	+3.27	12-0
2007-12-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-13	1853.67	1667.92	79.67%	20.10%	+18.38	13-0
2007-12-16	New York Jets	W 20-10	1872.05	1383.21	95.56%	4.21%	+2.66	14-0
2007-12-23	Miami Dolphins	W 28-7	1874.71	1263.02	97.65%	2.12%	+1.94	15-0
2007-12-29	@ New York Giants	W 38-35	1876.65	1547.38	82.88%	16.89%	+5.83	16-0
2007-09-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1514.00	1575.56	33.95%	65.81%	-37.70	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-31	1476.30	1415.22	51.02%	48.75%	-41.91	0-2
2007-09-24	Tennessee Titans	L 14-31	1434.39	1501.60	47.87%	51.90%	-39.33	0-3
2007-10-07	Carolina Panthers	L 13-16	1395.06	1478.63	45.53%	54.24%	-15.72	0-4
2007-10-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 28-17	1379.34	1536.01	22.92%	76.85%	+50.77	1-4
2007-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-16	1430.11	1372.15	65.35%	34.42%	+16.81	2-4
2007-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-10	1446.92	1380.23	51.82%	47.95%	+43.79	3-4
2007-11-04	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-24	1490.71	1587.69	43.62%	56.15%	+46.12	4-4
2007-11-11	St. Louis Rams	L 29-37	1536.83	1301.44	83.87%	15.90%	-47.26	4-5
2007-11-18	@ Houston Texans	L 10-23	1489.57	1453.27	47.45%	52.32%	-34.09	4-6
2007-11-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-6	1455.48	1432.45	45.55%	54.22%	+54.00	5-6
2007-12-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-27	1509.48	1568.86	49.00%	50.77%	-19.52	5-7
2007-12-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-14	1489.96	1325.77	65.32%	34.45%	+30.72	6-7
2007-12-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-24	1520.68	1457.41	66.03%	33.73%	+17.79	7-7
2007-12-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-38	1538.47	1519.03	60.19%	39.58%	-46.43	7-8
2007-12-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 25-33	1492.04	1509.64	39.84%	59.93%	-22.46	7-9
2007-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 35-45	1495.44	1499.15	41.77%	58.00%	-26.32	0-1
2007-09-16	Green Bay Packers	L 13-35	1469.12	1486.82	54.98%	44.79%	-51.38	0-2
2007-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-17	1417.74	1518.67	29.07%	70.70%	+37.26	1-2
2007-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-3	1455.00	1529.16	46.87%	52.89%	+38.00	2-2
2007-10-07	New York Jets	W 35-24	1493.00	1439.23	64.80%	34.97%	+23.12	3-2
2007-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-10	1516.12	1410.93	57.30%	42.46%	+38.79	4-2
2007-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-15	1554.91	1399.77	76.69%	23.07%	+19.53	5-2
2007-10-28	Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1574.44	1327.83	80.37%	19.40%	+6.71	6-2
2007-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-31	1581.15	1659.55	46.27%	53.50%	-30.58	6-3
2007-11-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-10	1550.57	1501.94	49.22%	50.55%	+24.66	7-3
2007-11-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-41	1575.23	1467.42	71.51%	28.26%	-69.77	7-4
2007-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1505.46	1491.87	44.21%	55.56%	+24.75	8-4
2007-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1530.21	1503.67	46.05%	53.72%	+18.53	9-4
2007-12-16	Washington Redskins	L 10-22	1548.74	1472.72	67.66%	32.11%	-46.68	9-5
2007-12-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 38-21	1502.06	1485.71	44.60%	55.17%	+45.32	10-5
2007-12-29	New England Patriots	L 35-38	1547.38	1876.65	16.89%	82.88%	-5.84	10-6
2007-09-09	New England Patriots	L 14-38	1501.44	1578.89	46.40%	53.37%	-45.31	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-20	1456.13	1543.35	30.72%	69.04%	-16.21	0-2
2007-09-23	Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1439.92	1433.79	58.34%	41.43%	+14.30	1-2
2007-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1454.22	1446.08	43.44%	56.33%	-14.99	1-3
2007-10-07	@ New York Giants	L 24-35	1439.23	1493.00	34.97%	64.80%	-23.13	1-4
2007-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-16	1416.10	1491.17	46.75%	53.02%	-24.64	1-5
2007-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-38	1391.46	1451.92	34.10%	65.67%	-17.99	1-6
2007-10-28	Buffalo Bills	L 3-13	1373.47	1479.62	42.33%	57.44%	-26.68	1-7
2007-11-04	Washington Redskins	L 20-23	1346.79	1504.42	35.30%	64.46%	-12.20	1-8
2007-11-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-16	1334.59	1676.71	15.87%	83.89%	+28.95	2-8
2007-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-34	1363.54	1698.20	9.64%	90.12%	-10.72	2-9
2007-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 40-13	1352.82	1296.49	50.33%	49.44%	+51.19	3-9
2007-12-09	Cleveland Browns	L 18-24	1404.01	1508.32	42.59%	57.18%	-20.80	3-10
2007-12-16	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1383.21	1872.05	4.21%	95.56%	-2.65	3-11
2007-12-23	@ Tennessee Titans	L 6-10	1380.56	1473.10	30.07%	69.69%	-12.00	3-12
2007-12-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1368.56	1297.78	66.99%	32.77%	+11.32	4-12
2007-09-09	Detroit Lions	L 21-36	1411.09	1443.10	52.93%	46.84%	-40.84	0-1
2007-09-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1370.25	1537.84	21.83%	77.94%	-7.55	0-2
2007-09-23	Cleveland Browns	W 26-24	1362.70	1421.89	49.03%	50.74%	+14.30	1-2
2007-09-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 35-17	1377.00	1419.48	36.46%	63.31%	+53.51	2-2
2007-10-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-28	1430.51	1563.65	25.40%	74.37%	-18.96	2-3
2007-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-12	1411.55	1509.45	43.49%	56.28%	-12.26	2-4
2007-10-28	@ Tennessee Titans	L 9-13	1399.29	1551.99	23.33%	76.44%	-9.31	2-5
2007-11-04	Houston Texans	L 17-24	1389.98	1425.64	52.41%	47.36%	-27.63	2-6
2007-11-11	Chicago Bears	L 6-17	1362.35	1470.13	42.10%	57.67%	-27.83	2-7
2007-11-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-29	1334.52	1453.16	27.01%	72.75%	-14.26	2-8
2007-11-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1320.26	1428.56	28.20%	71.56%	+24.69	3-8
2007-12-02	Denver Broncos	W 34-20	1344.95	1468.43	39.91%	59.85%	+44.62	4-8
2007-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1389.57	1655.23	13.70%	86.07%	-15.23	4-9
2007-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-21	1374.34	1766.15	12.41%	87.35%	-6.56	4-10
2007-12-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 11-49	1367.78	1678.01	10.94%	88.83%	-13.46	4-11
2007-12-30	San Diego Chargers	L 17-30	1354.32	1655.63	19.27%	80.50%	-13.86	4-12
2007-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1527.08	1469.39	50.53%	49.24%	-17.44	0-1
2007-09-17	Washington Redskins	L 12-20	1509.64	1484.30	60.99%	38.77%	-34.37	0-2
2007-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 56-21	1475.27	1499.38	54.06%	45.70%	+53.89	1-2
2007-09-30	@ New York Giants	L 3-16	1529.16	1455.00	52.89%	46.87%	-37.99	1-3
2007-10-14	@ New York Jets	W 16-9	1491.17	1416.10	53.02%	46.75%	+24.64	2-3
2007-10-21	Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1515.81	1487.15	61.45%	38.32%	-21.20	2-4
2007-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-16	1494.61	1453.02	48.21%	51.56%	+27.18	3-4
2007-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-38	1521.79	1619.85	43.47%	56.30%	-39.70	3-5
2007-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-25	1482.09	1516.61	37.53%	62.24%	+35.06	4-5
2007-11-18	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1517.15	1311.13	81.48%	18.29%	+11.55	5-5
2007-11-25	@ New England Patriots	L 28-31	1528.70	1846.77	10.51%	89.26%	-3.64	5-6
2007-12-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-28	1525.06	1551.87	53.68%	46.09%	-21.39	5-7
2007-12-09	New York Giants	L 13-16	1503.67	1530.21	53.72%	46.05%	-18.53	5-8
2007-12-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 10-6	1485.14	1736.64	14.69%	85.07%	+33.89	6-8
2007-12-23	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-23	1519.03	1538.47	39.58%	60.19%	+46.43	7-8
2007-12-30	Buffalo Bills	W 17-9	1565.46	1440.40	73.48%	26.29%	+14.84	8-8
2007-09-09	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-7	1546.15	1433.26	58.38%	41.38%	+42.87	1-0
2007-09-16	Buffalo Bills	W 26-3	1589.02	1496.11	69.74%	30.03%	+28.72	2-0
2007-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-16	1617.74	1475.46	75.35%	24.42%	+22.32	3-0
2007-09-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-21	1640.06	1455.28	67.95%	31.82%	-35.80	3-1
2007-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-0	1604.26	1570.37	62.16%	37.61%	+34.36	4-1
2007-10-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-31	1638.62	1419.02	72.13%	27.64%	-24.88	4-2
2007-10-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-13	1613.74	1469.90	62.63%	37.14%	+24.55	5-2
2007-11-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 38-7	1638.29	1527.14	71.90%	27.87%	+30.96	6-2
2007-11-11	Cleveland Browns	W 31-28	1669.25	1499.33	78.17%	21.60%	+7.46	7-2
2007-11-18	@ New York Jets	L 16-19	1676.71	1334.59	83.89%	15.87%	-28.94	7-3
2007-11-26	Miami Dolphins	W 3-0	1647.77	1299.59	90.78%	8.99%	+3.10	8-3
2007-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-10	1650.87	1493.36	76.93%	22.83%	+17.05	9-3
2007-12-09	@ New England Patriots	L 13-34	1667.92	1853.67	20.10%	79.67%	-18.38	9-4
2007-12-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-29	1649.54	1647.57	57.76%	42.01%	-30.44	9-5
2007-12-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 41-24	1619.10	1348.63	77.59%	22.18%	+18.25	10-5
2007-12-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 21-27	1637.35	1340.48	80.10%	19.67%	-13.03	10-6
2007-09-09	Chicago Bears	W 14-3	1581.55	1563.72	59.96%	39.80%	+26.32	1-0
2007-09-16	@ New England Patriots	L 14-38	1607.87	1624.20	40.01%	59.76%	-39.08	1-1
2007-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1568.79	1538.20	46.63%	53.13%	-24.59	1-2
2007-09-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-30	1544.20	1470.17	67.41%	32.36%	-50.23	1-3
2007-10-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-3	1493.97	1488.70	43.03%	56.74%	+69.68	2-3
2007-10-14	Oakland Raiders	W 28-14	1563.65	1430.51	74.37%	25.40%	+18.96	3-3
2007-10-28	Houston Texans	W 35-10	1582.61	1451.16	74.18%	25.59%	+25.51	4-3
2007-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-35	1608.12	1425.84	67.63%	32.13%	-57.15	4-4
2007-11-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-21	1550.97	1744.20	30.78%	68.99%	+19.43	5-4
2007-11-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-24	1570.40	1590.68	39.47%	60.30%	-20.81	5-5
2007-11-25	Baltimore Ravens	W 32-14	1549.59	1428.34	73.05%	26.72%	+22.61	6-5
2007-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-10	1572.20	1403.87	65.86%	33.91%	+25.30	7-5
2007-12-09	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-17	1597.50	1467.29	60.78%	38.99%	+19.04	8-5
2007-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 51-14	1616.54	1416.75	80.94%	18.83%	+22.86	9-5
2007-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 23-3	1639.40	1432.22	81.58%	18.19%	+16.23	10-5
2007-12-30	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-17	1655.63	1354.32	80.50%	19.27%	+13.86	11-5
2007-09-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1449.36	1461.98	55.70%	44.07%	+15.21	1-0
2007-09-16	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-16	1464.57	1444.54	45.12%	54.64%	+10.89	2-0
2007-09-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-37	1475.46	1617.74	24.42%	75.35%	-22.32	2-1
2007-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-23	1453.14	1528.78	46.66%	53.11%	-41.59	2-2
2007-10-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-9	1411.55	1521.40	41.81%	57.96%	-11.78	2-3
2007-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 15-33	1399.77	1554.91	23.07%	76.69%	-19.54	2-4
2007-10-28	New Orleans Saints	L 10-31	1380.23	1446.92	47.95%	51.82%	-43.78	2-5
2007-11-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-20	1336.45	1355.34	39.66%	60.11%	-15.81	2-6
2007-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-24	1320.64	1495.03	21.17%	78.60%	-20.70	2-7
2007-11-18	St. Louis Rams	L 9-13	1299.94	1348.69	50.53%	49.24%	-20.13	2-8
2007-11-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 37-31	1279.81	1499.91	17.11%	82.66%	+40.33	3-8
2007-12-02	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-31	1320.14	1378.44	34.38%	65.39%	-28.26	3-9
2007-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-27	1291.88	1572.68	21.17%	78.60%	-18.89	3-10
2007-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1272.99	1494.25	27.45%	72.32%	+38.11	4-10
2007-12-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-19	1311.10	1558.55	24.55%	75.22%	+21.19	5-10
2007-12-30	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-20	1332.29	1526.40	19.33%	80.43%	-13.91	5-11
2007-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-6	1508.17	1439.91	66.67%	33.09%	+24.70	1-0
2007-09-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1532.87	1446.77	54.60%	45.17%	-18.84	1-1
2007-09-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-21	1514.03	1517.25	57.03%	42.74%	+14.75	2-1
2007-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-3	1528.78	1453.14	53.11%	46.66%	+41.59	3-1
2007-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-21	1570.37	1604.26	37.61%	62.16%	-34.36	3-2
2007-10-14	New Orleans Saints	L 17-28	1536.01	1379.34	76.85%	22.92%	-50.77	3-3
2007-10-21	St. Louis Rams	W 33-6	1485.24	1346.86	74.94%	24.83%	+25.74	4-3
2007-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns	L 30-33	1510.98	1483.38	46.20%	53.56%	-15.95	4-4
2007-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-0	1495.03	1320.64	78.60%	21.17%	+20.69	5-4
2007-11-18	Chicago Bears	W 30-23	1515.72	1497.96	59.95%	39.81%	+21.00	6-4
2007-11-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-19	1536.72	1368.83	65.80%	33.97%	+15.15	7-4
2007-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1551.87	1525.06	46.09%	53.68%	+21.38	8-4
2007-12-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 42-21	1573.25	1485.42	69.12%	30.65%	+28.01	9-4
2007-12-16	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-13	1601.26	1387.87	71.41%	28.36%	-24.63	9-5
2007-12-23	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-6	1576.63	1356.09	82.70%	17.07%	+15.61	10-5
2007-12-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 41-44	1592.24	1269.75	82.33%	17.44%	-9.47	10-6
2007-09-09	Carolina Panthers	L 13-27	1485.34	1504.80	54.73%	45.04%	-40.80	0-1
2007-09-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-17	1444.54	1464.57	54.64%	45.12%	-10.88	0-2
2007-09-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-24	1433.66	1457.13	39.03%	60.74%	-35.66	0-3
2007-09-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-35	1398.00	1621.79	16.81%	82.96%	-17.75	0-4
2007-10-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 31-34	1380.25	1491.09	41.67%	58.10%	-14.39	0-5
2007-10-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-22	1365.86	1533.18	21.85%	77.91%	-19.00	0-6
2007-10-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-33	1346.86	1485.24	24.83%	74.94%	-25.74	0-7
2007-10-28	Cleveland Browns	L 20-27	1321.12	1463.70	37.31%	62.46%	-19.68	0-8
2007-11-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 37-29	1301.44	1536.83	15.90%	83.87%	+47.25	1-8
2007-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-9	1348.69	1299.94	49.24%	50.53%	+20.14	2-8
2007-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 19-24	1368.83	1536.72	33.97%	65.80%	-15.15	2-9
2007-12-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-16	1353.68	1355.11	57.28%	42.49%	+29.34	3-9
2007-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-19	1383.02	1476.31	29.98%	69.78%	-17.94	3-10
2007-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 14-33	1365.08	1670.46	18.91%	80.86%	-16.45	3-11
2007-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-41	1348.63	1619.10	22.18%	77.59%	-18.24	3-12
2007-12-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 19-48	1330.39	1447.34	27.21%	72.56%	-29.23	3-13
2007-09-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-20	1439.91	1508.17	33.09%	66.67%	-24.69	0-1
2007-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1415.22	1476.30	48.75%	51.02%	+41.91	1-1
2007-09-23	St. Louis Rams	W 24-3	1457.13	1433.66	60.74%	39.03%	+35.66	2-1
2007-09-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-7	1492.79	1522.90	38.12%	61.65%	+44.27	3-1
2007-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-33	1537.06	1668.65	25.57%	74.20%	-22.23	3-2
2007-10-14	Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1514.83	1555.38	51.71%	48.06%	+16.59	4-2
2007-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-23	1531.42	1431.07	56.62%	43.15%	-29.85	4-3
2007-10-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-24	1501.57	1578.43	46.49%	53.28%	-9.26	4-4
2007-11-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-10	1492.31	1450.08	63.28%	36.49%	+19.25	5-4
2007-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-7	1511.56	1409.18	56.91%	42.86%	+41.85	6-4
2007-11-25	Washington Redskins	W 19-13	1553.41	1473.48	68.14%	31.62%	+15.45	7-4
2007-12-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-23	1568.86	1509.48	50.77%	49.00%	+19.53	8-4
2007-12-09	@ Houston Texans	L 14-28	1588.39	1437.14	63.62%	36.15%	-47.42	8-5
2007-12-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-3	1540.97	1295.05	84.67%	15.10%	+17.58	9-5
2007-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-21	1558.55	1311.10	75.22%	24.55%	-21.19	9-6
2007-12-30	Carolina Panthers	L 23-31	1537.36	1401.80	74.63%	25.14%	-14.02	9-7
2007-09-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-10	1491.82	1537.33	36.06%	63.71%	+21.98	1-0
2007-09-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-22	1513.80	1613.25	43.27%	56.50%	-12.20	1-1
2007-09-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1501.60	1434.39	51.90%	47.87%	+39.34	2-1
2007-10-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-13	1540.94	1425.38	72.40%	27.36%	+14.44	3-1
2007-10-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1555.38	1514.83	48.06%	51.71%	-16.59	3-2
2007-10-21	@ Houston Texans	W 38-36	1538.79	1464.36	52.93%	46.84%	+13.20	4-2
2007-10-28	Oakland Raiders	W 13-9	1551.99	1399.29	76.44%	23.33%	+9.31	5-2
2007-11-04	Carolina Panthers	W 20-7	1561.30	1510.11	64.46%	35.31%	+25.38	6-2
2007-11-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-28	1586.68	1541.57	63.66%	36.11%	-49.11	6-3
2007-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-34	1537.57	1441.59	56.00%	43.76%	-41.75	6-4
2007-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-35	1495.82	1439.32	50.36%	49.41%	-54.03	6-5
2007-12-02	Houston Texans	W 28-20	1441.79	1462.64	54.53%	45.24%	+25.50	7-5
2007-12-09	San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1467.29	1597.50	38.99%	60.78%	-19.04	7-6
2007-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-17	1448.25	1336.61	58.21%	41.56%	+24.85	8-6
2007-12-23	New York Jets	W 10-6	1473.10	1380.56	69.69%	30.07%	+12.00	9-6
2007-12-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1485.10	1777.33	11.99%	87.78%	+14.28	10-6
2007-09-09	Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1468.62	1490.79	54.34%	45.43%	+15.68	1-0
2007-09-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-12	1484.30	1509.64	38.77%	60.99%	+34.37	2-0
2007-09-23	New York Giants	L 17-24	1518.67	1417.74	70.70%	29.07%	-37.26	2-1
2007-10-07	Detroit Lions	W 34-3	1481.41	1477.38	58.05%	41.72%	+46.31	3-1
2007-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1527.72	1547.98	39.47%	60.30%	-13.63	3-2
2007-10-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-19	1514.09	1459.93	64.85%	34.91%	+9.84	4-2
2007-10-28	@ New England Patriots	L 7-52	1523.93	1777.10	14.58%	85.19%	-19.51	4-3
2007-11-04	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1504.42	1346.79	64.46%	35.30%	+12.19	5-3
2007-11-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-33	1516.61	1482.09	62.24%	37.53%	-35.06	5-4
2007-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-28	1481.55	1690.13	18.07%	81.70%	-8.07	5-5
2007-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-19	1473.48	1553.41	31.62%	68.14%	-15.45	5-6
2007-12-02	Buffalo Bills	L 16-17	1458.03	1483.56	53.86%	45.91%	-10.73	5-7
2007-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 24-16	1447.30	1467.12	54.68%	45.09%	+25.42	6-7
2007-12-16	@ New York Giants	W 22-10	1472.72	1548.74	32.11%	67.66%	+46.69	7-7
2007-12-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 32-21	1519.41	1604.03	31.04%	68.73%	+45.40	8-7
2007-12-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-6	1564.81	1713.45	36.49%	63.27%	+57.75	9-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2008-01-13	New York Giants	L 17-21	1655.70	1576.13	68.23%	31.77%	-27.13	0-1
2008-01-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 42-20	1623.81	1626.56	57.21%	42.79%	+39.89	1-0
2008-01-20	New York Giants	L 20-23	1663.70	1603.26	65.80%	34.20%	-22.65	1-1
2008-01-13	San Diego Chargers	L 24-28	1763.05	1683.77	68.19%	31.81%	-27.11	0-1
2008-01-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-29	1641.47	1624.32	44.83%	55.17%	+15.51	1-0
2008-01-12	@ New England Patriots	L 20-31	1656.98	1882.48	16.74%	83.26%	-11.03	1-1
2008-01-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-20	1882.48	1656.98	83.26%	16.74%	+11.04	1-0
2008-01-20	San Diego Chargers	W 21-12	1893.52	1710.89	79.54%	20.46%	+12.20	2-0
2008-02-03	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1905.72	1625.92	83.35%	16.65%	-28.70	2-1
2008-01-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-14	1541.54	1523.34	44.98%	55.02%	+34.59	1-0
2008-01-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1576.13	1655.70	31.77%	68.23%	+27.13	2-0
2008-01-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1603.26	1663.70	34.20%	65.80%	+22.66	3-0
2008-02-03	New England Patriots	W 17-14	1625.92	1905.72	16.65%	83.35%	+28.70	4-0
2008-01-05	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 29-31	1624.32	1641.47	55.17%	44.83%	-15.51	0-1
2008-01-06	Tennessee Titans	W 17-6	1669.49	1499.38	78.34%	21.66%	+14.28	1-0
2008-01-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-24	1683.77	1763.05	31.81%	68.19%	+27.12	2-0
2008-01-20	@ New England Patriots	L 12-21	1710.89	1893.52	20.46%	79.54%	-12.21	2-1
2008-01-05	Washington Redskins	W 35-14	1582.77	1622.56	51.93%	48.07%	+43.79	1-0
2008-01-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-42	1626.56	1623.81	42.79%	57.21%	-39.89	1-1
2008-01-06	New York Giants	L 14-24	1523.34	1541.54	55.02%	44.98%	-34.59	0-1
2008-01-06	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1499.38	1669.49	21.66%	78.34%	-14.28	0-1
2008-01-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-35	1622.56	1582.77	48.07%	51.93%	-43.79	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2007-12-30	11.99%	Tennessee Titans	1485.10	16	@ Indianapolis Colts	1777.33	10
2	2007-12-16	14.69%	Philadelphia Eagles	1485.14	10	@ Dallas Cowboys	1736.64	6
3	2007-11-18	15.87%	@ New York Jets	1334.59	19	Pittsburgh Steelers	1676.71	16
4	2007-11-11	15.90%	St. Louis Rams	1301.44	37	@ New Orleans Saints	1536.83	29
5	2008-02-03 *	16.65%	@ New York Giants	1625.92	17	New England Patriots	1905.72	14
6	2007-11-25	17.11%	San Francisco 49ers	1279.81	37	@ Arizona Cardinals	1499.91	31
7	2007-12-30	17.44%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1269.75	44	Seattle Seahawks	1592.24	41
8	2007-12-30	19.67%	@ Baltimore Ravens	1340.48	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1637.35	21
9	2007-10-14	22.92%	New Orleans Saints	1379.34	28	@ Seattle Seahawks	1536.01	17
10	2007-12-23	23.48%	@ Chicago Bears	1429.23	35	Green Bay Packers	1686.90	7
11	2007-12-23	24.55%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1311.10	21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1558.55	19
12	2007-12-30	25.14%	Carolina Panthers	1401.80	31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1537.36	23
13	2007-12-15	27.45%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1272.99	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1494.25	13
14	2007-10-07	27.52%	Chicago Bears	1471.89	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1586.05	20
15	2007-11-11	27.59%	Atlanta Falcons	1371.15	20	@ Carolina Panthers	1484.73	13
16	2007-10-21	27.64%	@ Denver Broncos	1419.02	31	Pittsburgh Steelers	1638.62	28
17	2007-11-25	28.20%	Oakland Raiders	1320.26	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1428.56	17
18	2007-11-25	28.26%	Minnesota Vikings	1467.42	41	@ New York Giants	1575.23	17
19	2007-12-16	28.36%	@ Carolina Panthers	1387.87	13	Seattle Seahawks	1601.26	10
20	2007-11-11	28.66%	Denver Broncos	1384.94	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1489.37	11
21	2007-09-23	29.07%	New York Giants	1417.74	24	@ Washington Redskins	1518.67	17
22	2007-11-11	30.78%	@ San Diego Chargers	1550.97	23	Indianapolis Colts	1744.20	21
23	2007-12-23	31.04%	Washington Redskins	1519.41	32	@ Minnesota Vikings	1604.03	21
24	2008-01-13 *	31.77%	New York Giants	1576.13	21	@ Dallas Cowboys	1655.70	17
25	2008-01-13 *	31.81%	San Diego Chargers	1683.77	28	@ Indianapolis Colts	1763.05	24

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2007-12-23	80.41	@ Chicago Bears	35	1429.23	23.48%	Green Bay Packers	7	1686.90	76.29%
2	2007-11-25	69.77	Minnesota Vikings	41	1467.42	28.26%	@ New York Giants	17	1575.23	71.51%
3	2007-10-07	69.68	San Diego Chargers	41	1493.97	43.03%	@ Denver Broncos	3	1488.70	56.74%
4	2007-12-30	57.75	@ Washington Redskins	27	1564.81	36.49%	Dallas Cowboys	6	1713.45	63.27%
5	2007-11-04	57.16	@ Minnesota Vikings	35	1425.84	32.13%	San Diego Chargers	17	1608.12	67.63%
6	2007-11-11	56.66	Denver Broncos	27	1384.94	28.66%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	11	1489.37	71.11%
7	2007-09-23	55.00	Dallas Cowboys	34	1566.80	43.42%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1558.78	56.35%
8	2007-11-25	54.04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	35	1439.32	49.41%	Tennessee Titans	6	1495.82	50.36%
9	2007-11-25	54.01	New Orleans Saints	31	1455.48	45.55%	@ Carolina Panthers	6	1432.45	54.22%
10	2007-09-23	53.89	@ Philadelphia Eagles	56	1475.27	54.06%	Detroit Lions	21	1499.38	45.70%
11	2007-09-30	53.51	Oakland Raiders	35	1377.00	36.46%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1419.48	63.31%
12	2007-09-16	51.38	Green Bay Packers	35	1486.82	44.79%	@ New York Giants	13	1469.12	54.98%
13	2007-12-02	51.19	New York Jets	40	1352.82	50.33%	@ Miami Dolphins	13	1296.49	49.44%
14	2007-10-14	50.77	New Orleans Saints	28	1379.34	22.92%	@ Seattle Seahawks	17	1536.01	76.85%
15	2007-11-11	50.26	Cincinnati Bengals	21	1421.84	32.32%	@ Baltimore Ravens	7	1496.18	67.45%
16	2007-09-30	50.23	Kansas City Chiefs	30	1470.17	32.36%	@ San Diego Chargers	16	1544.20	67.41%
17	2007-12-30	50.01	@ Houston Texans	42	1513.49	32.68%	Jacksonville Jaguars	28	1691.48	67.09%
18	2007-11-11	49.11	Jacksonville Jaguars	28	1541.57	36.11%	@ Tennessee Titans	13	1586.68	63.66%
19	2007-09-30	48.50	@ Cleveland Browns	27	1407.59	34.69%	Baltimore Ravens	13	1569.90	65.07%
20	2007-12-09	47.42	@ Houston Texans	28	1437.14	36.15%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1588.39	63.62%
21	2007-11-11	47.26	St. Louis Rams	37	1301.44	15.90%	@ New Orleans Saints	29	1536.83	83.87%
22	2007-12-16	46.69	Washington Redskins	22	1472.72	32.11%	@ New York Giants	10	1548.74	67.66%
23	2007-12-23	46.43	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1519.03	39.58%	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1538.47	60.19%
24	2007-09-16	46.32	Houston Texans	34	1494.19	35.28%	@ Carolina Panthers	21	1545.59	64.49%
25	2007-10-07	46.31	@ Washington Redskins	34	1481.41	58.05%	Detroit Lions	3	1477.38	41.72%