2008 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

6th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2005

Runner-Up

Arizona Cardinals

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1948

Biggest Overachiever

Carolina Panthers

3.38 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.62 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

3.55 wins below expected

0 wins · 3.55 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	5	.688	—	345	317	+28	8.36	+2.64
2	New England Patriots	11	5	.688	—	410	309	+101	10.84	+0.16
3	New York Jets	9	7	.562	2	405	356	+49	8.93	+0.07
4	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	4	336	342	-6	8.11	-1.11

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	0	.750	—	347	223	+124	9.91	+2.09
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	1	385	244	+141	8.35	+2.65
3	Cincinnati Bengals	4	11	1	.281	7.5	204	364	-160	5.07	-0.57
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	0	.250	8	232	350	-118	6.67	-2.67

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tennessee Titans Division	13	3	.812	—	375	234	+141	10.46	+2.54
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	377	298	+79	9.57	+2.43
3	Houston Texans	8	8	.500	5	366	394	-28	7.28	+0.72
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	8	302	367	-65	7.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	8	8	.500	—	439	347	+92	9.90	-1.90
2	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	—	370	448	-78	7.70	+0.30
3	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	3	263	388	-125	5.37	-0.37
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2	14	.125	6	291	440	-149	4.51	-2.51

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	12	4	0	.750	—	427	294	+133	10.47	+1.53
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	9	6	1	.594	2.5	416	289	+127	9.26	+0.24
3	Dallas Cowboys	9	7	0	.562	3	362	365	-3	8.75	+0.25
4	Washington Redskins	8	8	0	.500	4	265	296	-31	8.54	-0.54

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	6	.625	—	379	333	+46	8.28	+1.72
2	Chicago Bears	9	7	.562	1	375	350	+25	9.24	-0.24
3	Green Bay Packers	6	10	.375	4	419	380	+39	9.16	-3.16
4	Detroit Lions	0	16	.000	10	268	517	-249	3.55	-3.55

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	12	4	.750	—	414	329	+85	8.62	+3.38
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	391	325	+66	7.72	+3.28
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	7	.562	3	361	323	+38	9.64	-0.64
4	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	4	463	393	+70	8.27	-0.27

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Arizona Cardinals Division	9	7	.562	—	427	426	+1	8.81	+0.19
2	San Francisco 49ers	7	9	.438	2	339	381	-42	5.97	+1.03
3	Seattle Seahawks	4	12	.250	5	294	392	-98	6.74	-2.74
4	St. Louis Rams	2	14	.125	7	232	465	-233	4.26	-2.26

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

San Diego Chargers 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

Jan 3

Baltimore Ravens 27

Miami Dolphins 9

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens 13

Tennessee Titans 10

Jan 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 35

San Diego Chargers 24

Jan 11

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Baltimore Ravens 14

Jan 18

NFC

Wild Card Round

Arizona Cardinals 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

Jan 3

Philadelphia Eagles 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Arizona Cardinals 33

Carolina Panthers 13

Jan 10

Philadelphia Eagles 23

New York Giants 11

Jan 11

Conference Championship

Arizona Cardinals 32

Philadelphia Eagles 25

Jan 18

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Arizona Cardinals 23

Feb 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1689	13	10.46	+2.54	95.80%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1688	12	10.47	+1.53	86.58%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1682	12	9.91	+2.09	92.49%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1680	11	8.35	+2.65	95.67%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1663	12	9.57	+2.43	95.34%	3	6	8	10	11	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1655	11	10.84	+0.16	63.64%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1655	9.5	9.26	+0.24	55.50%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1615	12	8.62	+3.38	98.29%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1607	10	8.28	+1.72	88.15%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1604	8	9.90	-1.90	22.75%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1595	11	7.72	+3.28	97.78%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1567	11	8.36	+2.64	95.99%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1543	8	8.27	-0.27	55.59%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1535	9	8.75	+0.25	66.20%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1526	9	9.24	-0.24	55.42%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1497	8	7.28	+0.72	74.68%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1488	6	9.16	-3.16	8.85%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1478	8	8.54	-0.54	49.68%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1478	9	9.64	-0.64	47.32%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1476	9	8.93	+0.07	62.84%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1465	9	8.81	+0.19	64.90%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1428	7	5.97	+1.03	80.42%	1	3	5	6	7	9	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1407	7	8.11	-1.11	38.10%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1403	4	6.74	-2.74	11.41%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1400	5	7.68	-2.68	12.50%	2	5	6	8	9	11	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1393	4.5	5.07	-0.57	39.33%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1393	8	7.70	+0.30	67.75%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1377	5	5.37	-0.37	54.64%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1351	4	6.67	-2.67	12.36%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1248	2	4.51	-2.51	12.29%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1219	2	4.26	-2.26	15.35%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1192	0	3.55	-3.55	1.60%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.6 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-2-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.9 exp.)
New York Giants	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-1-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	0-4 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	4-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	1-3 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Carolina Panthers	12	8.62	+3.38
2	Atlanta Falcons	11	7.72	+3.28
3	Baltimore Ravens	11	8.35	+2.65
4	Miami Dolphins	11	8.36	+2.64
5	Tennessee Titans	13	10.46	+2.54

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	0	3.55	-3.55
2	Green Bay Packers	6	9.16	-3.16
3	Seattle Seahawks	4	6.74	-2.74
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	7.68	-2.68
5	Cleveland Browns	4	6.67	-2.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tennessee Titans	10	Sep 7 – Nov 16	1 in 120
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	Nov 2 – Dec 28	1 in 105
3	Houston Texans	4	Nov 23 – Dec 14	1 in 48
4	New York Jets	5	Oct 26 – Nov 23	1 in 45
5	St. Louis Rams	2	Oct 12 – Oct 19	1 in 37

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	5	Nov 24 – Dec 22	1 in 72
2	Detroit Lions	16	Sep 7 – Dec 28	1 in 70
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	Dec 8 – Dec 28	1 in 52
4	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Sep 7 – Oct 26	1 in 42
5	St. Louis Rams	10	Oct 26 – Dec 28	1 in 29

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	62.48%	22.84%	10.34%	4.34%
New York Jets	17.38%	30.67%	28.85%	23.10%
Miami Dolphins	10.62%	24.85%	31.12%	33.41%
Buffalo Bills	9.52%	21.64%	29.69%	39.15%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.81%	25.49%	7.21%	1.49%
Baltimore Ravens	25.76%	43.35%	23.64%	7.25%
Cleveland Browns	7.10%	23.46%	44.19%	25.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.33%	7.70%	24.96%	66.01%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tennessee Titans	53.96%	28.52%	12.63%	4.89%
Indianapolis Colts	31.79%	37.92%	21.16%	9.13%
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.35%	19.01%	35.41%	37.23%
Houston Texans	5.90%	14.55%	30.80%	48.75%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	75.24%	20.18%	3.90%	0.68%
Denver Broncos	20.61%	54.79%	18.79%	5.81%
Oakland Raiders	3.05%	16.90%	45.58%	34.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.10%	8.13%	31.73%	59.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Giants	50.41%	25.88%	15.51%	8.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	22.01%	29.27%	26.00%	22.72%
Dallas Cowboys	15.12%	23.95%	29.33%	31.60%
Washington Redskins	12.46%	20.90%	29.16%	37.48%

Team	1	2	3	4
Chicago Bears	39.88%	33.92%	24.52%	1.68%
Green Bay Packers	38.03%	33.99%	26.28%	1.70%
Minnesota Vikings	21.98%	31.15%	43.45%	3.42%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.94%	5.75%	93.20%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	44.51%	26.94%	17.63%	10.92%
Carolina Panthers	23.44%	28.31%	26.15%	22.10%
New Orleans Saints	19.18%	24.93%	27.75%	28.14%
Atlanta Falcons	12.87%	19.82%	28.47%	38.84%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	68.30%	22.12%	7.81%	1.77%
Seattle Seahawks	19.75%	39.66%	28.35%	12.24%
San Francisco 49ers	10.07%	28.38%	39.31%	22.24%
St. Louis Rams	1.88%	9.84%	24.53%	63.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	26.94%	18.37%	13.64%	10.11%	8.16%	6.28%	5.04%	3.38%	2.71%	2.16%	1.31%	0.70%	0.66%	0.36%	0.16%	0.02%
Tennessee Titans	19.30%	17.51%	13.57%	10.99%	8.74%	7.70%	5.90%	4.58%	3.52%	2.77%	2.24%	1.36%	0.92%	0.61%	0.20%	0.09%
San Diego Chargers	12.83%	14.44%	14.12%	12.86%	10.59%	7.77%	6.85%	5.87%	4.72%	3.51%	2.20%	1.96%	0.98%	0.74%	0.43%	0.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.78%	14.12%	13.71%	12.09%	10.07%	8.16%	7.09%	5.73%	4.28%	3.46%	3.03%	1.91%	1.19%	0.80%	0.42%	0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	9.55%	10.35%	10.73%	10.76%	10.45%	10.06%	8.33%	7.42%	6.00%	5.04%	4.12%	2.97%	2.03%	1.47%	0.57%	0.15%
New York Jets	4.92%	6.39%	7.58%	8.52%	9.32%	9.13%	8.77%	8.93%	7.95%	7.72%	6.44%	5.24%	4.21%	3.00%	1.48%	0.40%
Baltimore Ravens	3.02%	4.51%	6.48%	7.32%	8.05%	8.52%	9.70%	9.08%	9.31%	7.84%	7.28%	6.21%	5.30%	3.59%	2.72%	1.07%
Miami Dolphins	2.88%	3.71%	4.78%	6.58%	7.61%	8.67%	8.54%	9.21%	9.10%	8.60%	8.34%	7.45%	6.50%	4.72%	2.45%	0.86%
Buffalo Bills	2.56%	3.26%	4.27%	5.36%	6.56%	7.68%	8.23%	8.50%	9.19%	8.93%	8.84%	8.26%	7.15%	5.70%	3.87%	1.64%
Denver Broncos	1.41%	2.38%	3.48%	5.21%	5.97%	7.57%	8.96%	9.84%	10.06%	9.35%	9.34%	8.39%	7.29%	5.04%	3.48%	2.23%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.43%	2.26%	3.17%	4.22%	5.49%	6.75%	7.25%	7.85%	8.88%	10.16%	9.72%	9.04%	8.86%	7.85%	4.75%	2.32%
Houston Texans	1.02%	1.56%	2.58%	3.01%	4.27%	5.07%	5.68%	6.67%	8.25%	9.64%	9.65%	10.87%	10.59%	10.33%	7.39%	3.42%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	0.86%	1.41%	2.08%	2.88%	3.88%	5.68%	6.66%	7.31%	8.80%	10.30%	11.45%	11.36%	10.45%	10.20%	6.39%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.13%	0.28%	0.44%	0.95%	1.46%	2.03%	2.80%	3.99%	5.59%	7.18%	9.98%	12.64%	16.13%	16.43%	19.93%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.10%	0.15%	0.27%	0.56%	0.89%	1.20%	2.26%	2.75%	3.76%	5.66%	7.96%	11.05%	15.25%	25.50%	22.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.18%	0.33%	0.41%	0.75%	1.22%	1.98%	2.67%	4.35%	6.25%	9.27%	13.96%	19.95%	38.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New York Giants	25.60%	16.60%	12.03%	8.99%	7.65%	6.46%	5.28%	4.49%	3.71%	2.80%	2.73%	1.69%	1.01%	0.68%	0.20%	0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.38%	12.96%	11.76%	10.17%	8.43%	8.04%	6.97%	6.36%	5.25%	4.92%	4.30%	3.26%	2.79%	1.84%	0.45%	0.12%
Chicago Bears	8.98%	11.17%	10.47%	9.29%	8.89%	8.35%	8.22%	7.05%	6.08%	6.15%	5.22%	4.24%	3.06%	1.87%	0.73%	0.23%
Green Bay Packers	9.15%	9.54%	10.26%	9.39%	8.60%	8.24%	7.59%	7.50%	6.64%	6.17%	5.60%	4.75%	3.59%	2.02%	0.69%	0.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.11%	8.23%	8.92%	8.63%	9.26%	8.42%	8.29%	6.83%	7.11%	6.13%	5.65%	4.43%	4.09%	2.77%	0.88%	0.25%
Arizona Cardinals	5.84%	8.19%	9.26%	10.86%	9.77%	8.37%	8.04%	7.98%	7.33%	6.36%	5.44%	4.92%	3.50%	2.62%	1.17%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	6.37%	6.34%	6.47%	7.44%	7.91%	7.96%	7.84%	7.91%	8.57%	7.36%	7.62%	6.80%	5.61%	4.11%	1.33%	0.36%
Carolina Panthers	5.68%	6.48%	6.78%	7.38%	7.83%	8.09%	8.24%	7.87%	7.22%	7.94%	7.00%	6.68%	5.69%	5.09%	1.54%	0.49%
Washington Redskins	4.79%	5.10%	5.38%	5.97%	7.62%	8.28%	8.13%	8.46%	8.36%	8.31%	7.93%	7.53%	6.57%	5.28%	1.86%	0.43%
Minnesota Vikings	4.30%	5.37%	6.05%	6.30%	6.95%	7.35%	8.11%	8.26%	8.30%	8.64%	8.92%	8.32%	5.91%	4.62%	1.95%	0.65%
New Orleans Saints	4.06%	5.03%	6.01%	6.59%	6.62%	7.11%	7.53%	7.69%	8.51%	8.00%	7.59%	7.85%	7.52%	6.41%	2.68%	0.80%
Atlanta Falcons	1.98%	3.38%	3.72%	4.61%	5.08%	6.26%	6.90%	6.97%	8.16%	8.85%	9.26%	9.71%	10.27%	9.39%	4.17%	1.29%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	1.11%	2.14%	2.86%	3.31%	4.20%	5.12%	6.82%	7.25%	8.46%	10.24%	11.65%	12.57%	12.02%	7.72%	3.92%
San Francisco 49ers	0.15%	0.44%	0.69%	1.34%	1.84%	2.44%	2.97%	4.61%	5.50%	6.65%	8.23%	10.75%	15.05%	16.99%	13.40%	8.95%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.04%	0.05%	0.15%	0.21%	0.35%	0.54%	0.92%	1.58%	2.37%	3.02%	5.20%	8.67%	15.09%	30.39%	31.42%
Detroit Lions	—	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.08%	0.23%	0.28%	0.43%	0.89%	1.25%	2.22%	4.10%	9.20%	30.84%	50.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	16.88%	12.27%	9.89%	8.00%	7.14%	6.06%	5.10%	4.56%	4.30%	3.61%	3.28%	3.01%	2.60%	2.26%	1.90%	1.39%	1.48%	0.98%	1.22%	0.95%	0.76%	0.48%	0.45%	0.38%	0.28%	0.23%	0.28%	0.10%	0.11%	0.03%	0.02%	—
New York Giants	12.81%	11.44%	8.29%	8.31%	6.29%	6.29%	4.83%	4.83%	4.13%	3.82%	3.45%	3.02%	3.08%	2.70%	2.55%	1.86%	1.95%	1.68%	1.45%	1.48%	1.32%	1.14%	0.86%	0.75%	0.51%	0.39%	0.35%	0.15%	0.09%	0.10%	0.05%	0.03%
Tennessee Titans	11.84%	10.10%	9.00%	7.40%	7.50%	6.08%	5.47%	4.88%	4.43%	4.31%	3.76%	3.40%	3.00%	2.93%	2.39%	2.23%	1.74%	1.57%	1.52%	1.35%	1.06%	1.07%	0.84%	0.61%	0.42%	0.39%	0.20%	0.24%	0.13%	0.06%	0.07%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	7.53%	6.82%	7.52%	6.80%	7.10%	6.14%	6.23%	5.50%	5.05%	4.93%	4.18%	3.94%	3.39%	3.29%	2.86%	3.15%	2.23%	2.57%	1.83%	1.94%	1.24%	1.15%	1.09%	1.04%	0.57%	0.63%	0.48%	0.31%	0.27%	0.14%	0.05%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.51%	6.73%	7.79%	6.12%	6.79%	5.91%	6.01%	5.27%	5.16%	4.57%	4.45%	4.09%	3.50%	3.35%	2.79%	2.90%	2.35%	2.18%	1.85%	1.82%	1.47%	1.68%	1.16%	0.86%	0.70%	0.64%	0.45%	0.35%	0.27%	0.17%	0.08%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.58%	6.12%	6.10%	6.57%	5.68%	5.97%	5.36%	5.15%	4.45%	4.68%	4.02%	3.97%	3.83%	3.77%	3.42%	2.98%	2.87%	2.45%	2.88%	2.00%	2.34%	1.78%	1.72%	1.75%	1.39%	1.01%	0.90%	0.66%	0.34%	0.13%	0.10%	0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	5.38%	4.89%	5.74%	5.15%	5.57%	5.44%	5.82%	4.66%	5.21%	4.70%	4.85%	4.65%	4.36%	4.08%	3.63%	3.52%	3.11%	2.91%	2.84%	2.38%	2.08%	1.84%	1.69%	1.47%	1.04%	1.01%	0.80%	0.52%	0.40%	0.22%	0.03%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	3.60%	4.74%	4.98%	5.85%	4.82%	5.39%	4.81%	5.00%	4.38%	4.57%	4.17%	4.60%	4.43%	3.67%	3.36%	3.70%	3.37%	3.18%	2.95%	2.98%	2.68%	2.76%	2.07%	2.11%	1.55%	1.42%	1.02%	0.81%	0.48%	0.30%	0.19%	0.06%
Green Bay Packers	3.95%	4.48%	4.65%	4.89%	4.69%	5.31%	5.00%	4.40%	4.47%	4.58%	4.35%	4.31%	3.81%	3.80%	3.90%	3.91%	3.49%	3.13%	3.14%	2.92%	2.90%	2.74%	2.30%	2.36%	1.81%	1.69%	1.15%	0.74%	0.54%	0.33%	0.16%	0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.98%	5.03%	4.30%	4.57%	4.91%	4.36%	4.60%	4.58%	4.66%	4.52%	4.13%	4.43%	4.54%	4.06%	3.91%	3.31%	3.65%	3.49%	3.37%	3.15%	2.37%	2.32%	2.32%	2.15%	2.31%	1.49%	1.33%	1.07%	0.47%	0.36%	0.18%	0.08%
Arizona Cardinals	2.27%	3.05%	3.72%	4.24%	4.00%	4.83%	4.78%	5.26%	4.58%	5.06%	4.47%	4.72%	3.85%	3.79%	4.25%	4.39%	3.90%	3.62%	3.28%	3.28%	3.04%	2.86%	2.57%	2.40%	1.69%	1.86%	1.45%	1.23%	0.71%	0.51%	0.22%	0.12%
New York Jets	2.49%	2.93%	3.31%	3.58%	3.92%	3.74%	4.34%	4.34%	4.95%	4.38%	4.22%	4.59%	4.07%	4.52%	4.67%	4.24%	3.68%	4.16%	3.85%	3.47%	3.58%	3.15%	2.81%	2.39%	2.05%	1.87%	1.81%	1.26%	0.85%	0.55%	0.13%	0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	2.13%	3.19%	3.13%	3.74%	3.29%	3.58%	3.68%	3.84%	4.40%	3.92%	4.08%	4.10%	4.20%	4.25%	4.24%	3.55%	4.58%	4.26%	3.99%	3.78%	3.54%	3.57%	3.46%	3.08%	2.65%	2.38%	2.05%	1.61%	0.80%	0.58%	0.24%	0.11%
Carolina Panthers	2.00%	2.83%	2.95%	3.54%	3.17%	3.60%	3.61%	3.94%	4.04%	3.90%	4.32%	4.37%	4.32%	4.03%	4.11%	4.07%	3.96%	3.68%	4.35%	3.54%	3.70%	3.54%	3.49%	3.06%	2.66%	2.74%	2.40%	1.73%	1.10%	0.73%	0.33%	0.19%
Washington Redskins	1.77%	2.39%	2.17%	2.84%	2.82%	3.06%	3.32%	3.54%	3.76%	4.00%	3.98%	4.13%	4.42%	4.38%	4.42%	3.86%	4.50%	4.08%	4.70%	3.96%	3.95%	3.84%	3.70%	3.39%	3.33%	2.86%	2.39%	2.09%	1.28%	0.59%	0.30%	0.18%
Baltimore Ravens	1.42%	1.83%	2.44%	2.38%	3.36%	2.97%	3.80%	3.58%	3.96%	3.86%	4.34%	4.03%	4.27%	4.46%	4.35%	4.51%	4.60%	4.70%	4.01%	4.22%	3.68%	3.73%	3.49%	3.14%	3.00%	2.69%	2.18%	1.67%	1.70%	0.95%	0.52%	0.16%
Minnesota Vikings	1.58%	2.00%	2.61%	2.69%	2.53%	3.37%	3.20%	3.27%	3.59%	3.60%	4.05%	3.77%	4.07%	3.98%	4.10%	3.96%	4.33%	4.53%	4.19%	4.25%	4.46%	4.57%	3.91%	3.85%	3.33%	2.93%	2.11%	2.24%	1.20%	0.98%	0.49%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	1.28%	1.62%	2.06%	2.14%	2.58%	2.53%	3.18%	3.72%	3.55%	3.99%	3.87%	4.26%	4.42%	4.80%	4.25%	4.28%	4.46%	4.54%	4.23%	4.10%	4.30%	4.06%	4.17%	3.45%	3.41%	3.11%	2.54%	1.81%	1.59%	0.97%	0.56%	0.17%
New Orleans Saints	1.31%	2.21%	2.01%	2.61%	3.06%	3.30%	3.07%	3.70%	3.14%	3.64%	3.65%	3.56%	3.97%	3.89%	4.08%	4.16%	4.07%	4.38%	4.43%	3.84%	3.75%	3.83%	4.19%	3.81%	3.52%	3.31%	2.93%	2.79%	1.58%	1.23%	0.63%	0.35%
Buffalo Bills	1.02%	1.58%	1.87%	1.70%	2.32%	2.39%	2.27%	3.15%	3.32%	3.46%	3.43%	3.77%	4.31%	3.97%	4.58%	4.00%	4.15%	4.66%	4.35%	4.78%	4.38%	4.31%	4.11%	4.05%	3.78%	3.42%	3.19%	2.46%	2.49%	1.51%	0.78%	0.44%
Denver Broncos	0.61%	0.80%	1.04%	1.36%	1.96%	1.83%	2.27%	2.55%	2.69%	2.97%	3.63%	3.87%	3.88%	4.35%	4.19%	5.12%	4.31%	5.44%	4.17%	5.14%	4.82%	4.95%	4.40%	4.54%	3.73%	4.13%	3.14%	2.73%	2.21%	1.59%	1.07%	0.51%
Atlanta Falcons	0.65%	1.02%	1.37%	1.75%	1.73%	2.09%	2.29%	2.54%	2.50%	2.73%	3.05%	3.22%	3.37%	3.77%	3.84%	3.48%	4.25%	4.13%	4.54%	4.49%	4.69%	4.90%	4.70%	4.99%	5.03%	4.71%	4.10%	4.09%	2.41%	2.02%	0.97%	0.58%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.63%	0.81%	1.13%	1.32%	1.62%	1.74%	2.28%	2.21%	2.75%	2.75%	3.26%	2.97%	3.70%	3.54%	4.13%	3.90%	4.47%	4.38%	4.76%	4.67%	4.85%	4.77%	5.19%	4.71%	4.75%	4.40%	4.16%	3.49%	2.99%	1.72%	1.25%	0.70%
Houston Texans	0.43%	0.48%	0.87%	1.06%	1.19%	1.34%	1.53%	1.63%	2.14%	2.22%	2.44%	2.60%	2.82%	3.07%	3.03%	3.40%	3.85%	4.37%	4.36%	4.61%	5.23%	5.07%	5.22%	5.44%	5.45%	5.54%	5.77%	4.54%	4.42%	3.02%	1.82%	1.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.29%	0.46%	0.58%	0.77%	1.20%	1.20%	1.43%	1.48%	1.78%	2.14%	2.01%	2.27%	2.56%	3.07%	3.77%	3.68%	3.73%	3.79%	4.43%	5.24%	5.09%	5.31%	6.05%	5.92%	6.73%	5.68%	6.20%	4.50%	4.02%	2.51%	1.91%
Cleveland Browns	0.10%	0.22%	0.38%	0.44%	0.69%	0.75%	0.97%	1.24%	1.40%	1.35%	1.77%	1.99%	2.46%	2.78%	2.96%	3.63%	3.67%	3.30%	4.23%	4.48%	4.92%	5.42%	5.50%	5.64%	6.24%	5.84%	5.98%	6.02%	5.53%	4.60%	3.67%	1.83%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.08%	0.12%	0.21%	0.26%	0.40%	0.61%	0.61%	0.71%	1.06%	1.10%	1.17%	1.09%	1.71%	1.95%	2.84%	2.64%	2.69%	3.02%	3.75%	3.71%	4.45%	4.86%	5.87%	6.79%	7.67%	7.97%	8.52%	6.95%	6.83%	5.73%	4.60%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.04%	0.11%	0.15%	0.19%	0.31%	0.40%	0.48%	0.71%	0.57%	0.78%	0.96%	1.16%	1.51%	1.87%	1.87%	2.27%	3.00%	3.57%	3.74%	4.42%	5.11%	6.36%	6.66%	8.09%	8.78%	10.11%	8.69%	10.53%	7.46%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	—	0.03%	0.07%	0.04%	0.13%	0.05%	0.19%	0.16%	0.28%	0.40%	0.49%	0.56%	0.63%	0.92%	1.09%	1.16%	1.40%	1.79%	2.14%	2.45%	2.66%	3.61%	4.29%	5.84%	6.36%	8.04%	8.87%	12.75%	12.49%	12.38%	8.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.04%	0.07%	0.05%	0.12%	0.17%	0.24%	0.18%	0.32%	0.34%	0.50%	0.68%	0.78%	0.93%	1.20%	1.33%	1.94%	2.20%	2.94%	3.16%	4.13%	5.29%	7.19%	8.31%	11.14%	12.47%	17.68%	16.51%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.01%	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.10%	0.11%	0.17%	0.17%	0.25%	0.19%	0.37%	0.46%	0.65%	0.72%	1.04%	1.38%	1.43%	1.63%	2.31%	2.88%	3.95%	4.40%	5.88%	8.55%	10.57%	16.29%	16.60%	19.74%
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	—	0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	0.12%	0.12%	0.15%	0.20%	0.29%	0.40%	0.39%	0.55%	0.70%	1.14%	1.22%	1.81%	2.20%	3.99%	6.06%	10.02%	15.82%	20.66%	33.94%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	26.94%	18.20%	11.69%	5.65%	11.53%	8.10%	17.89%
Tennessee Titans	19.30%	17.19%	11.53%	5.94%	12.75%	9.45%	23.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.78%	15.15%	18.53%	18.35%	4.14%	4.92%	25.13%
San Diego Chargers	12.83%	15.47%	19.16%	27.78%	2.21%	2.85%	19.70%
Indianapolis Colts	9.55%	9.94%	7.83%	4.47%	14.92%	12.95%	40.34%
New York Jets	4.92%	5.53%	4.70%	2.23%	13.79%	11.92%	56.91%
Baltimore Ravens	3.02%	4.86%	8.11%	9.77%	5.79%	7.46%	60.99%
Miami Dolphins	2.88%	3.28%	2.78%	1.68%	10.57%	10.20%	68.61%
Buffalo Bills	2.56%	2.85%	2.69%	1.42%	8.42%	9.14%	72.92%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.43%	2.20%	2.66%	2.06%	5.66%	7.11%	78.88%
Denver Broncos	1.41%	2.53%	5.32%	11.35%	3.23%	5.42%	70.74%
Houston Texans	1.02%	1.54%	1.94%	1.40%	4.51%	5.37%	84.22%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	0.94%	2.17%	3.70%	1.73%	3.13%	88.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.14%	0.49%	2.38%	0.39%	0.93%	95.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.12%	0.28%	0.91%	0.25%	0.71%	97.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.91%	0.11%	0.34%	98.45%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	25.60%	14.80%	7.70%	2.31%	14.72%	9.09%	25.78%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.38%	14.03%	12.68%	5.42%	8.06%	8.60%	38.83%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.11%	6.60%	4.08%	1.22%	15.39%	11.72%	50.88%
Green Bay Packers	9.15%	10.44%	11.78%	6.66%	7.55%	8.52%	45.90%
Chicago Bears	8.98%	12.08%	12.21%	6.61%	7.83%	8.19%	44.10%
Dallas Cowboys	6.37%	4.85%	2.88%	1.02%	12.43%	10.16%	62.29%
Arizona Cardinals	5.84%	9.00%	14.82%	38.64%	0.62%	1.30%	29.78%
Carolina Panthers	5.68%	6.91%	7.60%	3.25%	6.98%	8.94%	60.64%
Washington Redskins	4.79%	4.17%	2.44%	1.06%	9.62%	9.85%	68.07%
Minnesota Vikings	4.30%	6.00%	7.43%	4.25%	5.43%	7.38%	65.21%
New Orleans Saints	4.06%	5.52%	6.34%	3.26%	6.13%	7.52%	67.17%
Atlanta Falcons	1.98%	3.72%	4.54%	2.63%	4.02%	5.70%	77.41%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	1.28%	3.87%	13.99%	0.81%	1.72%	77.72%
San Francisco 49ers	0.15%	0.53%	1.46%	7.93%	0.36%	1.11%	88.46%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.04%	0.15%	1.69%	0.02%	0.15%	97.95%
Detroit Lions	—	0.03%	0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	0.05%	99.81%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	64.12%	64.12%	44.78%	30.58%	15.50%
Tennessee Titans	62.11%	62.11%	37.56%	21.57%	13.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.29%	60.29%	34.83%	19.24%	11.61%
New England Patriots	67.49%	67.49%	38.58%	19.77%	11.05%
Indianapolis Colts	42.45%	42.45%	22.98%	12.10%	7.21%
Philadelphia Eagles	38.04%	38.04%	23.50%	14.32%	6.98%
San Diego Chargers	59.21%	59.21%	27.27%	12.04%	6.40%
Baltimore Ravens	31.13%	27.01%	15.15%	8.39%	4.98%
Carolina Panthers	28.75%	28.75%	16.84%	8.98%	4.07%
Minnesota Vikings	24.68%	24.68%	13.87%	6.99%	3.07%
Chicago Bears	38.18%	38.18%	17.74%	6.72%	2.51%
Atlanta Falcons	16.89%	15.42%	8.37%	4.20%	1.94%
Green Bay Packers	34.51%	34.51%	14.05%	5.09%	1.77%
Arizona Cardinals	55.38%	38.96%	13.28%	4.54%	1.64%
Dallas Cowboys	26.49%	24.06%	10.91%	4.88%	1.59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.63%	40.63%	15.72%	5.66%	1.58%
New Orleans Saints	23.25%	21.29%	10.06%	4.25%	1.29%
Miami Dolphins	25.23%	17.02%	6.82%	2.48%	1.25%
Washington Redskins	22.97%	17.79%	6.96%	2.68%	0.77%
New York Jets	32.64%	21.10%	6.34%	1.83%	0.64%
Houston Texans	13.22%	7.12%	2.44%	0.82%	0.33%
Denver Broncos	25.32%	10.90%	2.33%	0.48%	0.18%
Buffalo Bills	21.67%	10.75%	2.68%	0.57%	0.18%
Seattle Seahawks	20.39%	8.47%	2.37%	0.71%	0.16%
Jacksonville Jaguars	17.49%	8.09%	1.85%	0.46%	0.12%
San Francisco 49ers	10.86%	4.74%	1.48%	0.40%	0.10%
Cleveland Browns	10.73%	3.92%	0.77%	0.17%	0.04%
Oakland Raiders	4.19%	1.36%	0.25%	0.03%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.15%	0.84%	0.14%	0.05%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.48%	0.34%	0.01%	—	—
Detroit Lions	0.16%	0.06%	0.02%	—	—
St. Louis Rams	2.01%	0.30%	0.05%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.55%	0.08%	0.41%	1.54%	0.92%	1.92%	1.32%	0.10%	1.51%	1.59%	2.10%	0.26%	1.96%	2.01%	1.86%
Buffalo Bills	0.36%		0.06%	0.28%	0.67%	0.19%	0.34%	0.43%	0.11%	0.19%	0.42%	0.29%	0.16%	0.64%	0.94%	0.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.07%		0.01%	0.10%	0.04%	0.04%	0.07%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.09%	0.01%	0.06%	0.04%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns	0.09%	0.28%			0.26%	0.21%	0.24%	0.25%		0.20%	0.15%	0.31%	0.07%	0.19%	0.23%	0.21%
Denver Broncos	0.35%	0.84%	0.04%	0.24%		0.41%	0.66%	0.54%	0.05%	0.52%	0.59%	1.26%	0.02%	0.28%	0.67%	0.49%
Houston Texans	0.31%	0.21%	0.06%	0.28%	0.55%		0.35%	0.19%	0.02%	0.27%	0.29%	0.51%	0.05%	0.49%	0.75%	0.23%
Indianapolis Colts	1.74%	1.29%	0.23%	1.11%	2.38%	0.76%		0.98%	0.17%	1.36%	1.75%	1.96%	0.48%	2.66%	3.61%	2.48%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.28%	0.28%	0.04%	0.29%	0.42%	0.06%	0.19%		0.08%	0.29%	0.33%	0.65%	0.11%	0.49%	0.64%	0.31%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.03%			0.01%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins	0.81%	0.45%	0.17%	0.57%	1.36%	0.40%	0.82%	0.57%	0.09%		0.87%	0.64%	0.20%	1.05%	2.16%	0.70%
New England Patriots	1.36%	1.90%	0.15%	0.84%	2.38%	0.91%	1.86%	1.34%	0.17%	1.70%		2.67%	0.34%	1.80%	3.21%	1.72%
New York Jets	0.55%	0.64%	0.09%	0.67%	1.69%	0.45%	0.66%	0.62%	0.13%	0.38%	1.12%		0.29%	1.13%	1.74%	0.49%
Oakland Raiders	0.09%	0.10%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.07%	0.10%	0.12%		0.10%	0.16%	0.16%		0.06%	0.06%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.45%	3.19%	0.19%	1.19%	1.76%	1.59%	3.75%	2.29%	0.15%	3.03%	2.83%	3.90%	0.27%		1.95%	2.82%
San Diego Chargers	1.62%	3.60%	0.14%	1.00%	2.50%	1.59%	3.45%	2.58%	0.04%	3.06%	2.57%	4.75%	0.29%	1.39%		2.33%
Tennessee Titans	1.97%	1.88%	0.18%	1.09%	2.70%	1.05%	2.80%	1.70%	0.09%	1.69%	1.89%	2.67%	0.46%	2.38%	3.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.97%	1.30%	2.01%	2.98%	0.04%	2.48%	1.23%	1.77%	2.15%	2.43%	0.31%	0.58%	0.08%	2.75%	3.04%
Atlanta Falcons	1.47%		0.38%	1.17%	0.76%		1.09%	0.61%	0.37%	0.53%	0.59%	0.32%	0.55%	0.08%	1.12%	0.68%
Carolina Panthers	2.56%	0.50%		2.01%	0.86%	0.02%	1.91%	1.25%	0.81%	0.84%	0.78%	0.44%	1.23%	0.20%	1.83%	0.92%
Chicago Bears	2.18%	0.78%	1.28%		1.24%		1.77%	0.93%	1.40%	0.88%	1.07%	0.61%	1.10%	0.14%	2.20%	1.54%
Dallas Cowboys	3.37%	0.36%	0.47%	1.08%		0.02%	1.48%	0.62%	0.64%	0.52%	0.30%	0.64%	1.40%	0.20%	1.27%	0.47%
Detroit Lions							0.01%							0.01%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers	2.12%	0.69%	1.05%	1.56%	1.23%			0.64%	0.94%	0.75%	0.98%	0.41%	1.25%	0.10%	1.91%	1.29%
Minnesota Vikings	1.90%	0.69%	1.13%	1.33%	1.01%	0.01%	1.40%		1.06%	0.91%	0.75%	0.52%	0.89%	0.06%	1.69%	1.03%
New Orleans Saints	1.82%	0.24%	0.51%	1.30%	0.72%		1.60%	0.64%		0.54%	0.68%	0.47%	0.74%	0.11%	1.66%	0.68%
New York Giants	5.00%	1.01%	1.34%	1.89%	1.34%	0.01%	2.32%	1.44%	1.34%		1.34%	1.02%	2.10%	0.27%	1.93%	1.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.63%	0.66%	0.98%	2.02%	0.72%	0.01%	2.02%	1.01%	1.26%	0.91%		1.10%	2.10%	0.24%	2.03%	0.64%
San Francisco 49ers	0.30%	0.16%	0.20%	0.33%	0.48%		0.43%	0.16%	0.22%	0.33%	0.40%		0.05%		0.50%	0.50%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	0.23%	0.43%	0.63%	0.85%	0.01%	0.53%	0.25%	0.38%	0.54%	0.64%	0.11%			0.59%	0.78%
St. Louis Rams		0.01%		0.02%	0.03%		0.05%			0.02%	0.04%		0.01%		0.05%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.10%	0.68%	0.99%	1.56%	1.10%	0.01%	1.55%	0.87%	0.96%	0.79%	0.95%	0.34%	1.01%	0.15%		1.16%
Washington Redskins	2.20%	0.19%	0.55%	0.81%	0.33%		0.95%	0.46%	0.39%	0.39%	0.13%	0.51%	0.80%	0.11%	1.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.50%	0.02%	0.06%	0.65%	0.32%	1.62%	0.47%	0.02%	0.69%	2.83%	1.19%	0.05%	1.53%	2.68%	2.52%
Buffalo Bills	0.19%		0.01%	0.05%	0.15%	0.09%	0.19%	0.10%		0.13%	0.42%	0.18%	0.04%	0.40%	0.52%	0.21%
Cincinnati Bengals				0.01%	0.02%						0.04%	0.03%			0.01%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns		0.06%			0.04%	0.03%	0.07%	0.03%		0.02%	0.13%	0.06%		0.05%	0.18%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	0.03%	0.17%	0.04%	0.06%		0.05%	0.35%	0.17%		0.09%	0.42%	0.22%		0.34%	0.10%	0.29%
Houston Texans	0.17%	0.16%	0.02%	0.02%	0.11%		0.13%	0.08%		0.06%	0.32%	0.15%		0.40%	0.55%	0.27%
Indianapolis Colts	1.61%	0.79%	0.08%	0.41%	0.99%	0.35%		0.44%	0.03%	1.11%	3.79%	1.62%	0.14%	3.84%	4.00%	3.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.11%	0.05%	0.02%	0.03%	0.11%	0.03%	0.10%		0.02%	0.06%	0.31%	0.14%	0.02%	0.19%	0.45%	0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs								0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.32%	0.19%	0.01%	0.13%	0.35%	0.11%	0.51%	0.28%	0.01%		1.31%	0.43%	0.08%	1.05%	1.10%	0.94%
New England Patriots	2.89%	1.68%	0.16%	0.71%	1.83%	1.22%	4.25%	1.24%	0.14%	2.29%		3.23%	0.25%	5.74%	7.82%	5.13%
New York Jets	0.31%	0.21%	0.04%	0.11%	0.33%	0.20%	0.57%	0.27%	0.02%	0.25%	1.05%		0.09%	0.87%	1.09%	0.93%
Oakland Raiders		0.01%		0.01%		0.02%		0.01%			0.03%	0.08%		0.02%	0.02%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.67%	1.54%	0.05%	0.30%	1.71%	0.84%	4.19%	1.15%	0.02%	2.02%	6.08%	2.72%	0.19%		6.44%	5.91%
San Diego Chargers	1.78%	1.28%	0.06%	0.64%	0.55%	0.79%	2.90%	1.09%	0.03%	1.54%	5.71%	2.14%	0.07%	4.51%		4.18%
Tennessee Titans	2.78%	1.43%	0.19%	0.61%	1.73%	0.63%	4.59%	0.90%	0.04%	1.94%	6.47%	2.57%	0.18%	6.52%	6.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.66%	0.98%	1.69%	0.86%	0.01%	1.76%	0.81%	1.03%	1.49%	0.94%		0.08%		2.34%	0.63%
Atlanta Falcons	1.19%		0.30%	1.04%	0.59%		1.09%	0.60%	0.30%	1.18%	0.41%	0.13%	0.23%	0.02%	0.82%	0.47%
Carolina Panthers	2.14%	0.45%		2.23%	1.11%	0.01%	2.10%	1.09%	0.79%	1.95%	1.19%	0.30%	0.50%	0.01%	2.06%	0.91%
Chicago Bears	2.75%	0.79%	1.32%		1.16%		1.45%	0.76%	1.52%	1.95%	1.26%	0.33%	0.61%	0.01%	2.91%	0.92%
Dallas Cowboys	1.38%	0.36%	0.72%	1.03%		0.01%	1.09%	0.67%	0.61%	1.64%	0.81%	0.20%	0.34%	0.02%	1.50%	0.53%
Detroit Lions		0.01%								0.01%
Green Bay Packers	2.30%	0.64%	0.91%	1.45%	0.76%			0.53%	0.87%	1.45%	0.98%	0.34%	0.50%	0.03%	2.29%	1.00%
Minnesota Vikings	1.84%	0.64%	1.04%	1.23%	0.93%		1.35%		0.89%	1.58%	0.90%	0.25%	0.46%		1.95%	0.81%
New Orleans Saints	1.55%	0.16%	0.41%	1.42%	0.63%		1.19%	0.60%		1.05%	0.79%	0.14%	0.43%	0.02%	1.13%	0.54%
New York Giants	5.85%	1.84%	3.16%	4.72%	3.74%		4.53%	2.72%	2.71%		5.43%	0.80%	1.29%	0.07%	5.22%	2.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.88%	0.69%	1.41%	2.31%	1.56%	0.01%	2.60%	1.39%	1.24%	4.12%		0.32%	0.62%	0.02%	3.13%	1.20%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	0.06%	0.09%	0.24%	0.11%		0.18%	0.04%	0.04%	0.27%	0.08%				0.26%	0.07%
Seattle Seahawks	0.08%	0.03%	0.15%	0.39%	0.22%		0.24%	0.12%	0.17%	0.27%	0.11%				0.41%	0.18%
St. Louis Rams				0.01%			0.01%	0.01%							0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.72%	0.51%	0.95%	1.85%	1.06%		2.04%	1.12%	0.71%	1.51%	1.25%	0.32%	0.76%	0.05%		0.87%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	0.21%	0.47%	0.83%	0.42%		0.83%	0.35%	0.35%	0.87%	0.39%	0.13%	0.28%		0.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.15%		0.05%	0.16%	0.15%	1.06%	0.17%		0.42%	1.89%	0.45%	0.01%	0.76%	1.61%	1.51%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%				0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.03%		0.10%	0.10%	0.11%
Cincinnati Bengals						0.01%	0.01%				0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns							0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%		0.01%	0.05%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.05%	0.01%					0.07%	0.02%			0.09%	0.07%		0.08%	0.01%	0.08%
Houston Texans	0.06%	0.02%			0.03%		0.04%				0.27%	0.08%	0.01%	0.13%	0.14%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.94%	0.27%	0.01%	0.04%	0.25%	0.13%		0.08%		0.71%	3.22%	0.61%	0.05%	2.41%	1.97%	1.41%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%		0.05%			0.03%	0.12%	0.03%		0.04%	0.06%	0.06%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.37%	0.03%			0.41%	0.06%		0.43%	0.43%	0.48%
New England Patriots	1.93%	0.25%	0.01%	0.20%	0.51%	0.43%	2.77%	0.31%		0.64%		0.53%	0.03%	4.09%	3.22%	4.85%
New York Jets	0.21%	0.02%		0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.19%	0.06%		0.06%	0.24%			0.32%	0.25%	0.36%
Oakland Raiders		0.02%												0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.75%	0.43%	0.01%	0.06%	0.39%	0.35%	2.50%	0.36%	0.01%	0.92%	4.52%	0.95%	0.06%		3.49%	4.44%
San Diego Chargers	0.90%	0.30%	0.03%	0.08%	0.08%	0.21%	1.55%	0.16%		0.49%	2.43%	0.67%	0.01%	2.49%		2.64%
Tennessee Titans	1.65%	0.62%	0.03%	0.12%	0.35%	0.25%	2.13%	0.18%		1.04%	5.53%	1.02%	0.05%	4.71%	3.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.20%	0.41%	0.50%	0.39%		0.30%	0.26%	0.23%	0.96%	0.52%	0.01%	0.01%		0.53%	0.22%
Atlanta Falcons	0.34%		0.14%	0.38%	0.39%		0.24%	0.27%	0.16%	1.08%	0.56%	0.06%	0.10%		0.23%	0.25%
Carolina Panthers	0.69%	0.24%		0.98%	0.68%	0.01%	0.86%	0.50%	0.19%	2.34%	1.31%	0.11%	0.12%		0.48%	0.47%
Chicago Bears	0.52%	0.28%	0.52%		0.50%		0.42%	0.24%	0.41%	1.66%	0.80%	0.09%	0.10%		0.80%	0.38%
Dallas Cowboys	0.53%	0.23%	0.45%	0.76%			0.44%	0.41%	0.32%	0.68%	0.26%	0.02%	0.05%		0.57%	0.16%
Green Bay Packers	0.54%	0.25%	0.37%	0.21%	0.40%			0.19%	0.34%	1.19%	0.66%	0.03%	0.08%		0.48%	0.35%
Minnesota Vikings	0.66%	0.39%	0.52%	0.45%	0.50%		0.30%		0.48%	1.67%	0.79%	0.11%	0.15%	0.01%	0.59%	0.37%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	0.06%	0.16%	0.44%	0.43%		0.36%	0.39%		0.88%	0.51%	0.04%	0.07%		0.28%	0.26%
New York Giants	2.94%	1.60%	3.08%	4.40%	1.38%		3.51%	2.60%	2.27%		2.83%	0.39%	0.61%	0.04%	3.90%	1.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.28%	0.70%	1.51%	1.80%	0.67%	0.01%	1.62%	1.23%	0.94%	2.10%		0.16%	0.21%		1.66%	0.43%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%		0.04%	0.05%	0.04%		0.03%	0.06%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%				0.04%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.07%	0.05%		0.08%	0.06%	0.06%	0.11%	0.06%				0.07%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.58%	0.07%	0.25%	0.75%	0.50%		0.46%	0.41%	0.22%	1.26%	0.65%	0.05%	0.13%			0.33%
Washington Redskins	0.26%	0.11%	0.33%	0.23%	0.10%		0.34%	0.26%	0.18%	0.19%	0.21%	0.01%	0.03%		0.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.20%	0.01%				0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.23%	0.01%	0.05%		0.31%			0.05%			0.33%	0.16%				0.26%
Atlanta Falcons			0.18%	0.04%				0.01%		0.03%		0.01%	0.17%		0.07%		0.40%			0.01%			0.42%	0.24%				0.36%
Baltimore Ravens	0.22%	0.20%			0.40%	0.34%			0.34%		0.27%					0.43%		0.23%	1.26%			0.66%			0.01%	0.04%	0.45%		0.13%
Buffalo Bills		0.01%			0.02%	0.01%			0.01%		0.02%					0.01%		0.02%	0.05%			0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.32%	0.02%						0.01%		0.06%	0.54%	0.02%	0.11%		0.88%			0.09%			0.69%	0.55%				0.78%
Chicago Bears			0.23%					0.02%		0.01%		0.04%	0.26%	0.04%	0.06%		0.55%			0.11%	0.01%		0.41%	0.32%				0.45%
Cincinnati Bengals																						0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%				0.01%														0.02%
Dallas Cowboys			0.12%	0.03%			0.02%			0.03%		0.01%	0.15%	0.01%	0.02%		0.27%			0.02%			0.28%	0.30%				0.33%
Denver Broncos					0.01%	0.01%			0.02%									0.02%	0.08%			0.01%				0.01%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers			0.15%					0.02%		0.03%		0.03%	0.30%	0.03%	0.07%		0.30%			0.07%			0.30%	0.25%				0.22%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.01%			0.06%				0.01%		0.01%					0.05%		0.01%	0.10%			0.04%					0.02%		0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.33%	0.42%			0.69%	0.53%			0.35%		0.41%					0.44%		0.32%	1.83%			1.02%			0.07%	0.04%	0.51%		0.25%
Jacksonville Jaguars					0.03%											0.01%			0.05%			0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.08%	0.05%			0.08%	0.06%			0.06%		0.09%					0.11%		0.05%	0.32%			0.17%				0.01%	0.10%		0.07%
Minnesota Vikings			0.26%	0.06%			0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.41%	0.01%	0.08%		0.59%			0.05%			0.50%	0.42%				0.65%
New England Patriots	0.58%	0.46%			0.94%	0.72%			0.69%		0.75%					0.74%		0.66%	3.05%			1.32%			0.06%	0.07%	0.72%		0.29%
New Orleans Saints			0.09%									0.01%	0.12%		0.03%		0.26%			0.08%			0.19%	0.16%				0.35%
New York Giants			1.21%	0.09%				0.03%		0.10%		0.18%	1.58%	0.14%	0.40%		3.26%			0.45%			2.92%	2.09%				3.05%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.02%			0.05%	0.06%			0.03%		0.05%					0.11%		0.06%	0.12%			0.04%				0.01%	0.04%		0.03%
Oakland Raiders					0.01%											0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.49%	0.09%			0.01%	0.03%		0.05%		0.10%	0.84%	0.05%	0.24%		1.40%			0.18%			1.12%	0.86%				1.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.53%	0.40%			1.05%	0.96%			0.61%		0.67%					0.72%		0.64%	3.17%			1.54%			0.05%	0.09%	0.77%		0.41%
San Diego Chargers	0.40%	0.24%			0.47%	0.51%			0.36%		0.29%					0.50%		0.23%	1.75%			0.84%			0.04%	0.04%	0.48%		0.25%
San Francisco 49ers			0.01%							0.02%							0.02%						0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.02%												0.01%		0.03%			0.01%			0.03%	0.02%				0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.10%	0.01%								0.03%	0.20%	0.01%	0.06%		0.29%			0.07%			0.27%	0.13%				0.41%
Tennessee Titans	0.72%	0.45%			1.09%	1.01%			0.81%		0.76%					0.79%		0.72%	3.28%			1.67%			0.07%	0.24%	0.95%		0.45%
Washington Redskins			0.03%	0.04%									0.09%	0.02%	0.03%		0.16%						0.13%	0.13%				0.14%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New York Giants	100.00%	63.40%	41.67%	20.50%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tennessee Titans	100.00%	55.22%	32.62%	17.52%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	61.33%	29.02%	15.71%	Won Super Bowl
Carolina Panthers	100.00%	57.29%	22.15%	9.03%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Ravens	60.07%	28.28%	13.79%	8.13%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Indianapolis Colts	51.87%	23.86%	11.62%	6.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	50.48%	22.21%	12.33%	5.99%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	49.52%	23.54%	10.92%	4.99%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	61.46%	24.27%	10.33%	4.47%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
San Diego Chargers	48.13%	18.21%	8.04%	3.89%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	39.93%	13.10%	4.91%	2.28%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Arizona Cardinals	38.54%	9.29%	2.60%	0.72%	Eliminated in Super Bowl

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens			60.07%
Indianapolis Colts				51.87%
Miami Dolphins	39.93%
San Diego Chargers		48.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals		38.54%
Atlanta Falcons	61.46%
Minnesota Vikings				49.52%
Philadelphia Eagles			50.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens						28.28%
Indianapolis Colts				14.58%		9.28%
Miami Dolphins				13.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers		16.83%	26.83%		17.67%
San Diego Chargers				10.99%		7.22%
Tennessee Titans	31.79%	11.18%			12.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals			5.31%		3.98%
Atlanta Falcons			13.86%		10.41%
Carolina Panthers	13.87%	17.44%		25.98%
Minnesota Vikings			23.54%
New York Giants	15.38%	19.75%				28.27%
Philadelphia Eagles					22.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.06%		8.08%	2.65%
Indianapolis Colts	3.62%		1.66%	2.99%		3.35%
Miami Dolphins		1.17%			1.21%	2.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.42%	3.46%			2.69%	14.45%
San Diego Chargers	2.45%		1.18%	2.14%		2.27%
Tennessee Titans		4.55%	5.35%	19.10%	3.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals			0.76%	0.49%	0.73%	0.62%
Atlanta Falcons			2.38%	2.08%	2.77%	3.10%
Carolina Panthers	1.32%	3.01%			11.66%	6.16%
Minnesota Vikings	1.41%	2.94%			6.57%
New York Giants	2.36%	4.67%	24.59%	10.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.60%	3.32%	7.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Carolina Panthers	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals			0.13%		0.06%	0.04%				0.19%	0.05%	0.25%
Atlanta Falcons			0.50%		0.46%	0.27%				1.32%	0.46%	1.46%
Baltimore Ravens	0.31%	0.82%		1.90%			0.89%	3.26%	0.95%
Carolina Panthers			1.04%		0.97%	0.55%				2.60%	0.81%	3.06%
Indianapolis Colts	0.19%	0.81%		1.52%			0.87%	2.67%	0.71%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%	0.29%		0.62%			0.20%	0.83%	0.27%
Minnesota Vikings			0.70%		0.39%	0.29%				1.48%	0.55%	1.58%
New York Giants			2.56%		2.34%	1.16%				5.94%	1.83%	6.67%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.73%		0.63%	0.32%				1.78%	0.45%	2.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.58%	1.58%		3.86%			1.66%	6.09%	1.94%
San Diego Chargers	0.14%	0.40%		0.87%			0.45%	1.57%	0.46%
Tennessee Titans	0.59%	1.96%		4.35%			1.86%	6.75%	2.01%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New York Giants 20.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

44.59%

Win Prob

56.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

59.01%

Win Prob

67.83%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

32.54%

Win Prob

49.70%

Tennessee Titans 17.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

57.57%

Win Prob

52.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

58.55%

Win Prob

56.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

38.53%

Win Prob

50.30%

Pittsburgh Steelers 15.71% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

43.75%

Win Prob

67.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

49.79%

Win Prob

43.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

38.77%

Win Prob

50.62%

Carolina Panthers 9.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

45.35%

Win Prob

52.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

52.64%

Win Prob

32.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

33.89%

Win Prob

41.30%

Baltimore Ravens 8.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

58.59%

Win Prob

48.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

40.10%

Win Prob

56.01%

Indianapolis Colts 6.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.87%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

61.11%

Win Prob

46.42%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

31.15%

Win Prob

54.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

39.44%

Win Prob

53.29%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.99% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

60.10%

Win Prob

54.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

34.72%

Win Prob

50.86%

Minnesota Vikings 4.99% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

60.16%

Win Prob

39.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

31.66%

Win Prob

45.93%

Atlanta Falcons 4.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.46%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

57.11%

Win Prob

44.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

30.01%

Win Prob

48.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

32.66%

Win Prob

42.69%

San Diego Chargers 3.89% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.13%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

60.35%

Win Prob

38.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

30.47%

Win Prob

48.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

40.36%

Win Prob

46.18%

Miami Dolphins 2.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

51.53%

Win Prob

32.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

36.40%

Win Prob

41.71%

Arizona Cardinals 0.72% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.54%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

57.16%

Win Prob

27.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

29.23%

Win Prob

36.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

34.72%

Win Prob

29.76%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2008-09-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1491.20	1417.05	54.01%	45.51%	+27.66	1-0
2008-09-14	Miami Dolphins	W 31-10	1518.86	1391.02	72.67%	26.86%	+23.70	2-0
2008-09-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1542.56	1528.25	45.42%	54.10%	-23.10	2-1
2008-09-28	@ New York Jets	L 35-56	1519.46	1434.64	55.53%	43.99%	-48.86	2-2
2008-10-05	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1470.60	1565.54	42.56%	56.96%	+53.58	3-2
2008-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1524.18	1631.66	40.81%	58.71%	+27.61	4-2
2008-10-26	@ Carolina Panthers	L 23-27	1551.79	1536.45	45.57%	53.95%	-17.52	4-3
2008-11-02	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-13	1534.27	1390.04	63.71%	35.81%	+31.58	5-3
2008-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-24	1565.85	1316.87	84.07%	15.46%	+6.66	6-3
2008-11-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-20	1572.51	1417.08	65.18%	34.35%	+16.19	7-3
2008-11-23	New York Giants	L 29-37	1588.70	1709.38	38.99%	60.54%	-21.21	7-4
2008-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-48	1567.49	1543.17	46.86%	52.67%	-47.65	7-5
2008-12-07	St. Louis Rams	W 34-10	1519.84	1255.33	85.20%	14.32%	+13.53	8-5
2008-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-35	1533.37	1595.87	47.18%	52.34%	-41.55	8-6
2008-12-21	@ New England Patriots	L 7-47	1491.82	1600.95	29.03%	70.50%	-35.33	8-7
2008-12-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-21	1456.49	1411.76	62.32%	37.21%	+8.60	9-7
2008-09-07	Detroit Lions	W 34-21	1407.77	1450.61	50.01%	49.52%	+34.30	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-24	1442.07	1478.73	38.30%	61.23%	-28.53	1-1
2008-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-14	1413.54	1361.87	63.25%	36.28%	+34.19	2-1
2008-09-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 9-24	1447.73	1472.30	39.95%	59.57%	-29.76	2-2
2008-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1417.97	1538.31	27.71%	71.81%	+23.88	3-2
2008-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 22-20	1441.85	1576.42	37.10%	62.42%	+16.95	4-2
2008-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-27	1458.80	1563.07	29.60%	69.92%	-20.55	4-3
2008-11-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-0	1438.25	1364.97	53.89%	45.64%	+42.97	5-3
2008-11-09	New Orleans Saints	W 34-20	1481.22	1504.49	52.82%	46.71%	+33.58	6-3
2008-11-16	Denver Broncos	L 20-24	1514.80	1438.92	66.40%	33.12%	-25.49	6-4
2008-11-23	Carolina Panthers	W 45-28	1489.31	1576.69	43.63%	55.89%	+44.25	7-4
2008-11-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 22-16	1533.56	1530.14	43.87%	55.65%	+26.18	8-4
2008-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 25-29	1559.74	1534.57	46.98%	52.55%	-18.06	8-5
2008-12-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1541.68	1582.84	50.25%	49.27%	+16.40	9-5
2008-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-17	1558.08	1637.42	32.68%	66.84%	+33.95	10-5
2008-12-28	St. Louis Rams	W 31-27	1592.03	1222.46	91.16%	8.37%	+3.23	11-5
2008-09-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1439.37	1501.21	47.27%	52.25%	+26.55	1-0
2008-09-21	Cleveland Browns	W 28-10	1465.92	1458.11	57.23%	42.29%	+34.50	2-0
2008-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1500.42	1572.80	33.57%	65.95%	-11.19	2-1
2008-10-05	Tennessee Titans	L 10-13	1489.23	1611.51	38.77%	60.75%	-12.91	2-2
2008-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-31	1476.32	1560.93	32.02%	67.51%	-32.61	2-3
2008-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-13	1443.71	1474.23	39.14%	60.39%	+43.38	3-3
2008-10-26	Oakland Raiders	W 29-10	1487.09	1390.60	68.98%	30.55%	+25.63	4-3
2008-11-02	@ Cleveland Browns	W 37-27	1512.72	1533.51	40.48%	59.05%	+35.85	5-3
2008-11-09	@ Houston Texans	W 41-13	1548.57	1466.14	55.19%	44.33%	+45.09	6-3
2008-11-16	@ New York Giants	L 10-30	1593.66	1682.26	31.52%	68.00%	-27.13	6-4
2008-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-7	1566.53	1591.80	52.53%	46.99%	+48.63	7-4
2008-11-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-3	1615.16	1324.65	80.14%	19.38%	+20.79	8-4
2008-12-07	Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1635.95	1517.93	71.54%	27.98%	+20.16	9-4
2008-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1656.11	1699.55	49.92%	49.60%	-19.18	9-5
2008-12-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-24	1636.93	1612.01	46.94%	52.58%	+30.30	10-5
2008-12-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-7	1667.23	1413.50	84.42%	15.10%	+13.02	11-5
2008-09-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-10	1464.83	1539.10	45.49%	54.03%	+50.83	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-16	1515.66	1533.85	40.84%	58.68%	+22.53	2-0
2008-09-21	Oakland Raiders	W 24-23	1538.19	1430.99	70.27%	29.25%	+5.64	3-0
2008-09-28	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-14	1543.83	1331.22	72.18%	27.35%	+21.71	4-0
2008-10-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-41	1565.54	1470.60	56.96%	42.56%	-53.59	4-1
2008-10-19	San Diego Chargers	W 23-14	1511.95	1611.00	41.99%	57.54%	+33.15	5-1
2008-10-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-25	1545.10	1430.85	59.65%	39.87%	-34.36	5-2
2008-11-02	New York Jets	L 17-26	1510.74	1492.41	58.70%	40.82%	-33.81	5-3
2008-11-09	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1476.93	1586.05	29.03%	70.50%	-17.67	5-4
2008-11-17	Cleveland Browns	L 27-29	1459.26	1471.74	54.36%	45.16%	-14.77	5-5
2008-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 54-31	1444.49	1288.86	65.20%	34.32%	+31.67	6-5
2008-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-10	1476.16	1335.40	74.10%	25.42%	-37.63	6-6
2008-12-07	Miami Dolphins	L 3-16	1438.53	1481.90	49.93%	49.59%	-34.59	6-7
2008-12-14	@ New York Jets	L 27-31	1403.94	1531.75	26.86%	72.66%	-10.34	6-8
2008-12-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-23	1393.60	1450.83	35.54%	63.98%	+32.49	7-8
2008-12-28	New England Patriots	L 0-13	1426.09	1636.29	27.63%	71.90%	-19.17	7-9
2008-09-07	@ San Diego Chargers	W 26-24	1461.90	1586.13	27.27%	72.26%	+19.61	1-0
2008-09-14	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1481.51	1566.27	44.00%	55.52%	+18.47	2-0
2008-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-20	1499.98	1484.87	45.54%	53.99%	-27.68	2-1
2008-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-9	1472.30	1447.73	59.57%	39.95%	+29.76	3-1
2008-10-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-0	1502.06	1379.76	72.03%	27.49%	+30.86	4-1
2008-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-27	1532.92	1538.46	42.61%	56.91%	-40.13	4-2
2008-10-19	New Orleans Saints	W 30-7	1492.79	1520.74	52.15%	47.38%	+43.66	5-2
2008-10-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-23	1536.45	1551.79	53.95%	45.57%	+17.52	6-2
2008-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-6	1553.97	1322.00	74.33%	25.19%	+16.08	7-2
2008-11-16	Detroit Lions	W 31-22	1570.05	1261.38	88.05%	11.48%	+6.64	8-2
2008-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-45	1576.69	1489.31	55.89%	43.63%	-44.25	8-3
2008-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 35-31	1532.44	1559.35	39.63%	59.89%	+23.00	9-3
2008-12-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-23	1555.44	1622.23	46.56%	52.96%	+39.39	10-3
2008-12-14	Denver Broncos	W 30-10	1594.83	1474.72	71.78%	27.74%	+23.89	11-3
2008-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 28-34	1618.72	1675.05	35.66%	63.87%	-16.81	11-4
2008-12-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-31	1601.91	1556.45	49.89%	49.63%	+13.49	12-4
2008-09-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-13	1514.71	1596.53	32.37%	67.16%	+51.56	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1566.27	1481.51	55.52%	44.00%	-18.46	1-1
2008-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-27	1547.81	1507.25	61.75%	37.77%	-20.54	1-2
2008-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1527.27	1582.49	48.23%	51.30%	+19.71	2-2
2008-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-7	1546.98	1352.22	70.09%	29.44%	+29.44	3-2
2008-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-22	1576.42	1441.85	62.42%	37.10%	-16.95	3-3
2008-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 48-41	1559.47	1514.65	62.33%	37.19%	+18.93	4-3
2008-11-02	Detroit Lions	W 27-23	1578.40	1292.37	86.65%	12.87%	+4.96	5-3
2008-11-09	Tennessee Titans	L 14-21	1583.36	1673.86	43.19%	56.33%	-21.96	5-4
2008-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-37	1561.40	1566.25	42.71%	56.82%	-47.88	5-5
2008-11-23	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-3	1513.52	1290.94	73.30%	26.22%	+24.74	6-5
2008-11-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1538.26	1555.29	41.00%	58.52%	-35.26	6-6
2008-12-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-10	1503.00	1428.25	66.26%	33.26%	+23.08	7-6
2008-12-11	New Orleans Saints	W 27-24	1526.08	1552.63	52.35%	47.17%	+15.70	8-6
2008-12-22	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1541.78	1492.48	62.93%	36.59%	+12.20	9-6
2008-12-28	@ Houston Texans	L 24-31	1553.98	1468.43	55.63%	43.89%	-28.27	9-7
2008-09-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1501.21	1439.37	52.25%	47.27%	-26.55	0-1
2008-09-14	Tennessee Titans	L 7-24	1474.66	1520.70	49.55%	49.98%	-39.25	0-2
2008-09-21	@ New York Giants	L 23-26	1435.41	1611.47	21.77%	77.76%	-7.26	0-3
2008-09-28	Cleveland Browns	L 12-20	1428.15	1423.62	56.77%	42.75%	-30.83	0-4
2008-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-31	1397.32	1621.60	17.41%	82.12%	-10.07	0-5
2008-10-12	@ New York Jets	L 14-26	1387.25	1483.51	30.58%	68.95%	-20.38	0-6
2008-10-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-38	1366.87	1605.39	24.49%	75.04%	-24.96	0-7
2008-10-26	@ Houston Texans	L 6-35	1341.91	1458.43	28.16%	71.37%	-29.19	0-8
2008-11-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-19	1312.72	1517.19	28.29%	71.23%	+19.34	1-8
2008-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	T 13-13	1332.06	1594.45	22.04%	77.49%	+2.66	1-8
2008-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-27	1334.72	1623.97	12.66%	86.86%	-10.07	1-9
2008-11-30	Baltimore Ravens	L 3-34	1324.65	1615.16	19.38%	80.14%	-20.79	1-10
2008-12-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-35	1303.86	1616.81	11.23%	88.29%	-12.25	1-11
2008-12-14	Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1291.61	1497.77	28.09%	71.43%	+36.28	2-11
2008-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 14-0	1327.89	1402.60	33.27%	66.25%	+47.59	3-11
2008-12-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-6	1375.48	1265.36	70.61%	28.91%	+17.59	4-11
2008-09-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-28	1515.64	1546.80	51.69%	47.84%	-42.12	0-1
2008-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-10	1473.52	1586.38	40.06%	59.46%	-15.41	0-2
2008-09-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-28	1458.11	1465.92	42.29%	57.23%	-34.49	0-3
2008-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-12	1423.62	1428.15	42.75%	56.77%	+30.83	1-3
2008-10-13	New York Giants	W 35-14	1454.45	1650.88	29.24%	70.29%	+61.83	2-3
2008-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 11-14	1516.28	1572.22	35.71%	63.81%	-11.90	2-4
2008-10-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1504.38	1546.32	37.58%	61.94%	+29.13	3-4
2008-11-02	Baltimore Ravens	L 27-37	1533.51	1512.72	59.05%	40.48%	-35.85	3-5
2008-11-06	Denver Broncos	L 30-34	1497.66	1413.00	67.51%	32.01%	-25.92	3-6
2008-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-27	1471.74	1459.26	45.16%	54.36%	+14.76	4-6
2008-11-23	Houston Texans	L 6-16	1486.50	1409.75	66.51%	33.01%	-40.37	4-7
2008-11-30	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1446.13	1603.70	34.07%	65.45%	-13.11	4-8
2008-12-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 9-28	1433.02	1663.16	16.93%	82.60%	-14.22	4-9
2008-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-30	1418.80	1626.76	18.80%	80.72%	-16.20	4-10
2008-12-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-14	1402.60	1327.89	66.25%	33.27%	-47.59	4-11
2008-12-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-31	1355.01	1678.20	10.66%	88.87%	-3.81	4-12
2008-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 28-10	1546.80	1515.64	47.84%	51.69%	+42.12	1-0
2008-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-37	1588.92	1569.12	58.91%	40.61%	+15.62	2-0
2008-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-16	1604.54	1602.03	43.75%	55.78%	+35.53	3-0
2008-09-28	Washington Redskins	L 24-26	1640.07	1551.35	68.02%	31.50%	-18.47	3-1
2008-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-22	1621.60	1397.32	82.12%	17.41%	+10.06	4-1
2008-10-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-30	1631.66	1524.18	58.71%	40.81%	-27.61	4-2
2008-10-19	@ St. Louis Rams	L 14-34	1604.05	1333.04	78.33%	21.20%	-67.25	4-3
2008-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-9	1536.80	1593.64	47.99%	51.53%	+19.80	5-3
2008-11-02	@ New York Giants	L 14-35	1556.60	1631.61	33.23%	66.29%	-29.30	5-4
2008-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1527.30	1551.24	40.04%	59.48%	+22.84	6-4
2008-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-22	1550.14	1348.87	80.13%	19.40%	+13.47	7-4
2008-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-9	1563.61	1388.22	77.69%	21.83%	+21.03	8-4
2008-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1584.64	1684.18	30.18%	69.35%	-15.37	8-5
2008-12-14	New York Giants	W 20-8	1569.27	1717.79	35.25%	64.27%	+42.74	9-5
2008-12-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-33	1612.01	1636.93	52.58%	46.94%	-30.29	9-6
2008-12-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-44	1581.72	1608.18	39.69%	59.83%	-47.06	9-7
2008-09-08	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-14	1472.24	1438.58	48.20%	51.33%	+51.23	1-0
2008-09-14	San Diego Chargers	W 39-38	1523.47	1566.52	49.98%	49.55%	+9.52	2-0
2008-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 34-32	1532.99	1487.58	62.41%	37.11%	+10.09	3-0
2008-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-33	1543.08	1327.69	72.49%	27.03%	-52.06	3-1
2008-10-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1491.02	1555.99	46.83%	52.70%	+17.53	4-1
2008-10-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-24	1508.55	1518.51	54.72%	44.81%	-27.81	4-2
2008-10-20	@ New England Patriots	L 7-41	1480.74	1556.51	33.13%	66.39%	-37.17	4-3
2008-11-02	Miami Dolphins	L 17-26	1443.57	1465.21	53.05%	46.47%	-30.57	4-4
2008-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-30	1413.00	1497.66	32.01%	67.51%	+25.92	5-4
2008-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1438.92	1514.80	33.12%	66.40%	+25.49	6-4
2008-11-23	Oakland Raiders	L 10-31	1464.41	1300.57	76.54%	22.99%	-67.33	6-5
2008-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 34-17	1397.08	1641.05	15.84%	83.69%	+66.25	7-5
2008-12-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1463.33	1293.09	77.18%	22.34%	+11.39	8-5
2008-12-14	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-30	1474.72	1594.83	27.74%	71.78%	-23.89	8-6
2008-12-21	Buffalo Bills	L 23-30	1450.83	1393.60	63.98%	35.54%	-32.50	8-7
2008-12-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-52	1418.33	1579.11	23.30%	76.22%	-24.98	8-8
2008-09-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-34	1450.61	1407.77	49.52%	50.01%	-34.30	0-1
2008-09-14	Green Bay Packers	L 25-48	1416.31	1570.15	34.55%	64.97%	-31.88	0-2
2008-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1384.43	1412.42	39.48%	60.04%	-32.21	0-3
2008-10-05	Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1352.22	1546.98	29.44%	70.09%	-29.45	0-4
2008-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-12	1322.77	1508.99	20.79%	78.74%	-5.66	0-5
2008-10-19	@ Houston Texans	L 21-28	1317.11	1444.74	26.88%	72.64%	-13.69	0-6
2008-10-26	Washington Redskins	L 17-25	1303.42	1584.12	20.28%	79.25%	-11.05	0-7
2008-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-27	1292.37	1578.40	12.87%	86.65%	-4.97	0-8
2008-11-09	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-38	1287.40	1497.85	27.60%	71.93%	-26.02	0-9
2008-11-16	@ Carolina Panthers	L 22-31	1261.38	1570.05	11.48%	88.05%	-6.64	0-10
2008-11-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-38	1254.74	1598.41	15.04%	84.48%	-12.30	0-11
2008-11-27	Tennessee Titans	L 10-47	1242.44	1650.38	10.90%	88.63%	-12.78	0-12
2008-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-20	1229.66	1590.54	13.82%	85.71%	-5.33	0-13
2008-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-31	1224.33	1629.06	6.94%	92.58%	-4.23	0-14
2008-12-21	New Orleans Saints	L 7-42	1220.10	1536.92	17.12%	82.40%	-19.53	0-15
2008-12-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-31	1200.57	1480.29	13.28%	86.24%	-8.09	0-16
2008-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-19	1553.62	1518.02	61.08%	38.44%	+16.53	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 48-25	1570.15	1416.31	64.97%	34.55%	+31.88	2-0
2008-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-27	1602.03	1604.54	55.78%	43.75%	-35.52	2-1
2008-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-30	1566.51	1527.79	48.92%	50.60%	-28.20	2-2
2008-10-05	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1538.31	1417.97	71.81%	27.71%	-23.87	2-3
2008-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-17	1514.44	1460.77	51.07%	48.45%	+29.43	3-3
2008-10-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-14	1543.87	1593.53	49.03%	50.50%	+43.39	4-3
2008-11-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 16-19	1587.26	1662.81	33.16%	66.36%	-11.06	4-4
2008-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1576.20	1517.21	51.84%	47.68%	-9.95	4-5
2008-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 37-3	1566.25	1561.40	56.82%	42.71%	+47.87	5-5
2008-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 29-51	1614.12	1491.32	60.83%	38.70%	-54.77	5-6
2008-11-30	Carolina Panthers	L 31-35	1559.35	1532.44	59.89%	39.63%	-23.00	5-7
2008-12-07	Houston Texans	L 21-24	1536.35	1481.09	63.72%	35.80%	-21.19	5-8
2008-12-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-20	1515.16	1405.18	59.06%	40.46%	-22.68	5-9
2008-12-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1492.48	1541.78	36.59%	62.93%	-12.19	5-10
2008-12-28	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1480.29	1200.57	86.24%	13.28%	+8.10	6-10
2008-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-38	1526.86	1551.13	40.00%	59.53%	-35.25	0-1
2008-09-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 12-31	1491.61	1559.95	34.09%	65.43%	-28.59	0-2
2008-09-28	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 27-30	1463.02	1528.43	34.47%	65.05%	-11.48	0-3
2008-10-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-31	1451.54	1544.45	42.85%	56.67%	-16.48	0-4
2008-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 29-28	1435.06	1483.91	49.14%	50.38%	+9.68	1-4
2008-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 28-21	1444.74	1317.11	72.64%	26.88%	+13.69	2-4
2008-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-6	1458.43	1341.91	71.37%	28.16%	+29.20	3-4
2008-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-28	1487.63	1495.72	42.25%	57.27%	-21.49	3-5
2008-11-09	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-41	1466.14	1548.57	44.33%	55.19%	-45.10	3-6
2008-11-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-33	1421.04	1575.64	23.94%	75.58%	-11.29	3-7
2008-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-6	1409.75	1486.50	33.01%	66.51%	+40.38	4-7
2008-12-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-17	1450.13	1459.22	54.84%	44.68%	+30.96	5-7
2008-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-21	1481.09	1536.35	35.80%	63.72%	+21.19	6-7
2008-12-14	Tennessee Titans	W 13-12	1502.28	1677.38	31.84%	67.68%	+12.99	7-7
2008-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-27	1515.27	1290.29	73.57%	25.96%	-46.84	7-8
2008-12-28	Chicago Bears	W 31-24	1468.43	1553.98	43.89%	55.63%	+28.27	8-8
2008-09-07	Chicago Bears	L 13-29	1596.53	1514.71	67.16%	32.37%	-51.57	0-1
2008-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 18-15	1544.96	1501.48	49.61%	49.91%	+16.61	1-1
2008-09-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-23	1561.57	1511.31	63.06%	36.47%	-17.12	1-2
2008-10-05	@ Houston Texans	W 31-27	1544.45	1451.54	56.67%	42.85%	+16.48	2-2
2008-10-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 31-3	1560.93	1476.32	67.51%	32.02%	+32.60	3-2
2008-10-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-34	1593.53	1543.87	50.50%	49.03%	-43.38	3-3
2008-10-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 21-31	1550.15	1644.02	30.87%	68.66%	-18.79	3-4
2008-11-02	New England Patriots	W 18-15	1531.36	1603.94	45.74%	53.79%	+17.89	4-4
2008-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1549.25	1643.68	30.80%	68.72%	+26.39	5-4
2008-11-16	Houston Texans	W 33-27	1575.64	1421.04	75.58%	23.94%	+11.29	6-4
2008-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1586.93	1546.92	49.11%	50.41%	+16.77	7-4
2008-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns	W 10-6	1603.70	1446.13	65.45%	34.07%	+13.11	8-4
2008-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-3	1616.81	1303.86	88.29%	11.23%	+12.25	9-4
2008-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1629.06	1224.33	92.58%	6.94%	+4.24	10-4
2008-12-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-24	1633.30	1427.86	71.35%	28.18%	+14.35	11-4
2008-12-28	Tennessee Titans	W 23-0	1647.65	1704.92	47.93%	51.59%	+15.84	12-4
2008-09-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1560.78	1493.78	52.99%	46.54%	-26.93	0-1
2008-09-14	Buffalo Bills	L 16-20	1533.85	1515.66	58.68%	40.84%	-22.54	0-2
2008-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-21	1511.31	1561.57	36.47%	63.06%	+17.12	1-2
2008-09-28	Houston Texans	W 30-27	1528.43	1463.02	65.05%	34.47%	+11.49	2-2
2008-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-26	1539.92	1583.98	49.83%	49.69%	-21.41	2-3
2008-10-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-17	1518.51	1508.55	44.81%	54.72%	+27.81	3-3
2008-10-26	Cleveland Browns	L 17-23	1546.32	1504.38	61.94%	37.58%	-29.13	3-4
2008-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-21	1517.19	1312.72	71.23%	28.29%	-19.34	3-5
2008-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-14	1497.85	1287.40	71.93%	27.60%	+26.03	4-5
2008-11-16	Tennessee Titans	L 14-24	1523.88	1695.83	32.24%	67.29%	-19.62	4-6
2008-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 12-30	1504.26	1510.24	55.29%	44.24%	-45.04	4-7
2008-12-01	@ Houston Texans	L 17-30	1459.22	1450.13	44.68%	54.84%	-30.97	4-8
2008-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-23	1428.25	1503.00	33.26%	66.26%	-23.07	4-9
2008-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 20-16	1405.18	1515.16	40.46%	59.06%	+22.68	5-9
2008-12-18	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-31	1427.86	1633.30	28.18%	71.35%	-14.36	5-10
2008-12-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-27	1413.50	1667.23	15.10%	84.42%	-13.02	5-11
2008-09-07	@ New England Patriots	L 10-17	1414.64	1632.89	17.91%	81.61%	-9.13	0-1
2008-09-14	Oakland Raiders	L 8-23	1405.51	1387.35	58.68%	40.84%	-43.64	0-2
2008-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-38	1361.87	1413.54	36.28%	63.25%	-34.18	0-3
2008-09-28	Denver Broncos	W 33-19	1327.69	1543.08	27.03%	72.49%	+52.07	1-3
2008-10-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-34	1379.76	1502.06	27.49%	72.03%	-30.86	1-4
2008-10-19	Tennessee Titans	L 10-34	1348.90	1624.42	20.76%	78.76%	-19.60	1-5
2008-10-26	@ New York Jets	L 24-28	1329.30	1483.16	24.02%	75.50%	-9.25	1-6
2008-11-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-30	1320.05	1573.84	22.90%	76.63%	-7.64	1-7
2008-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 19-20	1312.41	1550.45	16.30%	83.23%	-3.14	1-8
2008-11-16	New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1309.27	1470.91	33.55%	65.98%	-20.41	1-9
2008-11-23	Buffalo Bills	L 31-54	1288.86	1444.49	34.32%	65.20%	-31.67	1-10
2008-11-30	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-13	1257.19	1367.90	28.84%	70.69%	+35.90	2-10
2008-12-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1293.09	1463.33	22.34%	77.18%	-11.39	2-11
2008-12-14	San Diego Chargers	L 21-22	1281.70	1526.16	23.86%	75.66%	-4.59	2-12
2008-12-21	Miami Dolphins	L 31-38	1277.11	1529.43	23.05%	76.48%	-11.75	2-13
2008-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-16	1265.36	1375.48	28.91%	70.61%	-17.60	2-14
2008-09-07	New York Jets	L 14-20	1414.66	1455.91	50.24%	49.29%	-23.64	0-1
2008-09-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-31	1391.02	1518.86	26.86%	72.67%	-23.69	0-2
2008-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 38-13	1367.33	1661.32	12.36%	87.16%	+83.68	1-2
2008-10-05	San Diego Chargers	W 17-10	1451.01	1603.35	34.75%	64.78%	+32.90	2-2
2008-10-12	@ Houston Texans	L 28-29	1483.91	1435.06	50.38%	49.14%	-9.68	2-3
2008-10-19	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-27	1474.23	1443.71	60.39%	39.14%	-43.38	2-4
2008-10-26	Buffalo Bills	W 25-16	1430.85	1545.10	39.87%	59.65%	+34.36	3-4
2008-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-17	1465.21	1443.57	46.47%	53.05%	+30.56	4-4
2008-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-19	1495.77	1426.32	65.58%	33.95%	+9.24	5-4
2008-11-16	Oakland Raiders	W 17-15	1505.01	1305.91	79.93%	19.59%	+5.34	6-4
2008-11-23	New England Patriots	L 28-48	1510.35	1582.82	45.75%	53.77%	-39.32	6-5
2008-11-30	@ St. Louis Rams	W 16-12	1471.03	1266.21	71.28%	28.25%	+10.87	7-5
2008-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 16-3	1481.90	1438.53	49.59%	49.93%	+34.59	8-5
2008-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-9	1516.49	1416.08	69.45%	30.07%	+12.94	9-5
2008-12-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-31	1529.43	1277.11	76.48%	23.05%	+11.74	10-5
2008-12-28	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1541.17	1501.31	49.09%	50.43%	+25.64	11-5
2008-09-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-24	1518.02	1553.62	38.44%	61.08%	-16.54	0-1
2008-09-14	Indianapolis Colts	L 15-18	1501.48	1544.96	49.91%	49.61%	-16.61	0-2
2008-09-21	Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1484.87	1499.98	53.99%	45.54%	+27.68	1-2
2008-09-28	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-30	1512.55	1588.54	33.11%	66.42%	-22.97	1-3
2008-10-06	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1489.58	1505.41	41.17%	58.36%	+19.41	2-3
2008-10-12	Detroit Lions	W 12-10	1508.99	1322.77	78.74%	20.79%	+5.66	3-3
2008-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 41-48	1514.65	1559.47	37.19%	62.33%	-18.93	3-4
2008-11-02	Houston Texans	W 28-21	1495.72	1487.63	57.27%	42.25%	+21.49	4-4
2008-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 28-27	1517.21	1576.20	47.68%	51.84%	+9.96	5-4
2008-11-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-19	1527.17	1581.48	35.93%	63.60%	-16.93	5-5
2008-11-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-12	1510.24	1504.26	44.24%	55.29%	+45.05	6-5
2008-11-30	Chicago Bears	W 34-14	1555.29	1538.26	58.52%	41.00%	+35.25	7-5
2008-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1590.54	1229.66	85.71%	13.82%	+5.33	8-5
2008-12-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 35-14	1595.87	1533.37	52.34%	47.18%	+41.55	9-5
2008-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-24	1637.42	1558.08	66.84%	32.68%	-33.95	9-6
2008-12-28	New York Giants	W 20-19	1603.47	1691.86	43.49%	56.03%	+3.58	10-6
2008-09-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1632.89	1414.64	81.61%	17.91%	+9.13	1-0
2008-09-14	@ New York Jets	W 19-10	1642.02	1479.55	66.09%	33.44%	+19.30	2-0
2008-09-21	Miami Dolphins	L 13-38	1661.32	1367.33	87.16%	12.36%	-83.68	2-1
2008-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-21	1577.64	1416.70	65.89%	33.63%	+19.42	3-1
2008-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-30	1597.06	1570.46	47.18%	52.34%	-40.55	3-2
2008-10-20	Denver Broncos	W 41-7	1556.51	1480.74	66.39%	33.13%	+37.18	4-2
2008-10-26	St. Louis Rams	W 23-16	1593.69	1400.29	79.41%	20.11%	+10.25	5-2
2008-11-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-18	1603.94	1531.36	53.79%	45.74%	-17.89	5-3
2008-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1586.05	1476.93	70.50%	29.03%	+17.67	6-3
2008-11-13	New York Jets	L 31-34	1603.72	1555.09	62.84%	36.68%	-20.90	6-4
2008-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 48-28	1582.82	1510.35	53.77%	45.75%	+39.33	7-4
2008-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-33	1622.15	1634.04	54.44%	45.08%	-50.15	7-5
2008-12-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1572.00	1367.19	71.27%	28.25%	+9.42	8-5
2008-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 49-26	1581.42	1309.82	78.39%	21.14%	+19.53	9-5
2008-12-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 47-7	1600.95	1491.82	70.50%	29.03%	+35.34	10-5
2008-12-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-0	1636.29	1426.09	71.90%	27.63%	+19.18	11-5
2008-09-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-20	1488.95	1495.78	55.16%	44.36%	+17.05	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-29	1506.00	1509.83	42.85%	56.67%	-18.42	1-1
2008-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 32-34	1487.58	1532.99	37.11%	62.41%	-10.10	1-2
2008-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1477.48	1444.63	60.71%	38.82%	+27.93	2-2
2008-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-30	1505.41	1489.58	58.36%	41.17%	-19.40	2-3
2008-10-12	Oakland Raiders	W 34-3	1486.01	1404.60	67.10%	32.42%	+34.73	3-3
2008-10-19	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-30	1520.74	1492.79	47.38%	52.15%	-43.66	3-4
2008-10-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-32	1477.08	1577.86	35.67%	63.85%	+27.41	4-4
2008-11-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-34	1504.49	1481.22	46.71%	52.82%	-33.58	4-5
2008-11-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-20	1470.91	1309.27	65.98%	33.55%	+20.41	5-5
2008-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 51-29	1491.32	1614.12	38.70%	60.83%	+54.77	6-5
2008-11-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1546.09	1610.71	34.57%	64.95%	-11.52	6-6
2008-12-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 29-25	1534.57	1559.74	52.55%	46.98%	+18.06	7-6
2008-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1552.63	1526.08	47.17%	52.35%	-15.71	7-7
2008-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-7	1536.92	1220.10	82.40%	17.12%	+19.53	8-7
2008-12-28	Carolina Panthers	L 31-33	1556.45	1601.91	49.63%	49.89%	-13.49	8-8
2008-09-04	Washington Redskins	W 16-7	1558.14	1532.82	59.67%	39.85%	+22.99	1-0
2008-09-14	@ St. Louis Rams	W 41-13	1581.13	1389.24	69.74%	29.78%	+30.34	2-0
2008-09-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-23	1611.47	1435.41	77.76%	21.77%	+7.26	3-0
2008-10-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-6	1618.73	1492.93	72.43%	27.09%	+32.15	4-0
2008-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-35	1650.88	1454.45	70.29%	29.24%	-61.83	4-1
2008-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-17	1589.05	1371.06	81.59%	17.93%	+11.97	5-1
2008-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-14	1601.02	1630.34	39.30%	60.22%	+30.59	6-1
2008-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-14	1631.61	1556.60	66.29%	33.23%	+29.31	7-1
2008-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-31	1660.92	1615.79	49.85%	49.68%	+21.34	8-1
2008-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 30-10	1682.26	1593.66	68.00%	31.52%	+27.12	9-1
2008-11-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 37-29	1709.38	1588.70	60.54%	38.99%	+21.21	10-1
2008-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-7	1730.59	1541.07	69.46%	30.07%	+23.15	11-1
2008-12-07	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-20	1753.74	1590.81	76.44%	23.08%	-35.95	11-2
2008-12-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 8-20	1717.79	1569.27	64.27%	35.25%	-42.74	11-3
2008-12-21	Carolina Panthers	W 34-28	1675.05	1618.72	63.87%	35.66%	+16.81	12-3
2008-12-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-20	1691.86	1603.47	56.03%	43.49%	-3.59	12-4
2008-09-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-14	1455.91	1414.66	49.29%	50.24%	+23.64	1-0
2008-09-14	New England Patriots	L 10-19	1479.55	1642.02	33.44%	66.09%	-19.31	1-1
2008-09-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 29-48	1460.24	1557.00	30.51%	69.01%	-25.60	1-2
2008-09-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 56-35	1434.64	1519.46	43.99%	55.53%	+48.87	2-2
2008-10-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-14	1483.51	1387.25	68.95%	30.58%	+20.38	3-2
2008-10-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1503.89	1369.87	62.35%	37.18%	-20.73	3-3
2008-10-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-24	1483.16	1329.30	75.50%	24.02%	+9.25	4-3
2008-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-17	1492.41	1510.74	40.82%	58.70%	+33.82	5-3
2008-11-09	St. Louis Rams	W 47-3	1526.23	1358.47	76.93%	22.59%	+28.86	6-3
2008-11-13	@ New England Patriots	W 34-31	1555.09	1603.72	36.68%	62.84%	+20.90	7-3
2008-11-23	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-13	1575.99	1715.44	25.56%	73.96%	+65.06	8-3
2008-11-30	Denver Broncos	L 17-34	1641.05	1397.08	83.69%	15.84%	-66.25	8-4
2008-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1574.80	1373.03	70.92%	28.61%	-43.05	8-5
2008-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 31-27	1531.75	1403.94	72.66%	26.86%	+10.34	9-5
2008-12-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-13	1542.09	1370.97	67.18%	32.34%	-40.78	9-6
2008-12-28	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1501.31	1541.17	50.43%	49.09%	-25.63	9-7
2008-09-08	Denver Broncos	L 14-41	1438.58	1472.24	51.33%	48.20%	-51.23	0-1
2008-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-8	1387.35	1405.51	40.84%	58.68%	+43.64	1-1
2008-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-24	1430.99	1538.19	29.25%	70.27%	-5.63	1-2
2008-09-28	San Diego Chargers	L 18-28	1425.36	1582.60	34.11%	65.41%	-20.76	1-3
2008-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-34	1404.60	1486.01	32.42%	67.10%	-34.73	1-4
2008-10-19	New York Jets	W 16-13	1369.87	1503.89	37.18%	62.35%	+20.73	2-4
2008-10-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-29	1390.60	1487.09	30.55%	68.98%	-25.63	2-5
2008-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-24	1364.97	1438.25	45.64%	53.89%	-42.97	2-6
2008-11-09	Carolina Panthers	L 6-17	1322.00	1553.97	25.19%	74.33%	-16.09	2-7
2008-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 15-17	1305.91	1505.01	19.59%	79.93%	-5.34	2-8
2008-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-10	1300.57	1464.41	22.99%	76.54%	+67.33	3-8
2008-11-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1367.90	1257.19	70.69%	28.84%	-35.90	3-9
2008-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-34	1332.00	1503.97	22.17%	77.35%	-22.18	3-10
2008-12-14	New England Patriots	L 26-49	1309.82	1581.42	21.14%	78.39%	-19.53	3-11
2008-12-21	Houston Texans	W 27-16	1290.29	1515.27	25.96%	73.57%	+46.83	4-11
2008-12-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-24	1337.12	1518.08	21.29%	78.23%	+39.74	5-11
2008-09-07	St. Louis Rams	W 38-3	1536.91	1421.44	71.24%	28.28%	+32.21	1-0
2008-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 37-41	1569.12	1588.92	40.61%	58.91%	-15.62	1-1
2008-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 15-6	1553.50	1601.78	49.22%	50.30%	+28.99	2-1
2008-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1582.49	1527.27	51.30%	48.23%	-19.71	2-2
2008-10-05	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1562.78	1569.82	55.14%	44.39%	-25.93	2-3
2008-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-26	1536.85	1397.28	63.09%	36.43%	+26.22	3-3
2008-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1563.07	1458.80	69.92%	29.60%	+20.55	4-3
2008-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-7	1583.62	1458.50	61.14%	38.38%	+32.17	5-3
2008-11-09	New York Giants	L 31-36	1615.79	1660.92	49.68%	49.85%	-21.34	5-4
2008-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	T 13-13	1594.45	1332.06	77.49%	22.04%	-2.65	5-4
2008-11-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-36	1591.80	1566.53	46.99%	52.53%	-48.63	5-5
2008-11-27	Arizona Cardinals	W 48-20	1543.17	1567.49	52.67%	46.86%	+47.64	6-5
2008-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 20-14	1590.81	1753.74	23.08%	76.44%	+35.95	7-5
2008-12-15	Cleveland Browns	W 30-10	1626.76	1418.80	80.72%	18.80%	+16.20	8-5
2008-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-10	1642.96	1461.49	68.47%	31.05%	-34.78	8-6
2008-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 44-6	1608.18	1581.72	59.83%	39.69%	+47.06	9-6
2008-09-07	Houston Texans	W 38-17	1551.13	1526.86	59.53%	40.00%	+35.25	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 10-6	1586.38	1473.52	59.46%	40.06%	+15.40	2-0
2008-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-15	1601.78	1553.50	50.30%	49.22%	-28.98	2-1
2008-09-29	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1572.80	1500.42	65.95%	33.57%	+11.18	3-1
2008-10-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-21	1583.98	1539.92	49.69%	49.83%	+21.41	4-1
2008-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-10	1605.39	1366.87	75.04%	24.49%	+24.95	5-1
2008-10-26	New York Giants	L 14-21	1630.34	1601.02	60.22%	39.30%	-30.59	5-2
2008-11-03	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-6	1599.75	1595.17	44.04%	55.48%	+43.93	6-2
2008-11-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-24	1643.68	1549.25	68.72%	30.80%	-26.38	6-3
2008-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 11-10	1617.30	1553.59	64.83%	34.69%	+6.67	7-3
2008-11-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1623.97	1334.72	86.86%	12.66%	+10.07	8-3
2008-11-30	@ New England Patriots	W 33-10	1634.04	1622.15	45.08%	54.44%	+50.14	9-3
2008-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-13	1684.18	1584.64	69.35%	30.18%	+15.37	10-3
2008-12-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 13-9	1699.55	1656.11	49.60%	49.92%	+19.18	11-3
2008-12-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-31	1718.73	1664.39	51.17%	48.35%	-40.53	11-4
2008-12-28	Cleveland Browns	W 31-0	1678.20	1355.01	88.87%	10.66%	+3.81	12-4
2008-09-07	Carolina Panthers	L 24-26	1586.13	1461.90	72.26%	27.27%	-19.61	0-1
2008-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 38-39	1566.52	1523.47	49.55%	49.98%	-9.52	0-2
2008-09-22	New York Jets	W 48-29	1557.00	1460.24	69.01%	30.51%	+25.60	1-2
2008-09-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-18	1582.60	1425.36	65.41%	34.11%	+20.75	2-2
2008-10-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-17	1603.35	1451.01	64.78%	34.75%	-32.89	2-3
2008-10-12	New England Patriots	W 30-10	1570.46	1597.06	52.34%	47.18%	+40.54	3-3
2008-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-23	1611.00	1511.95	57.54%	41.99%	-33.14	3-4
2008-10-26	New Orleans Saints	L 32-37	1577.86	1477.08	63.85%	35.67%	-27.41	3-5
2008-11-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-19	1550.45	1312.41	83.23%	16.30%	+3.14	4-5
2008-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-11	1553.59	1617.30	34.69%	64.83%	-6.67	4-6
2008-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1546.92	1586.93	50.41%	49.11%	-16.78	4-7
2008-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-22	1530.14	1533.56	55.65%	43.87%	-26.17	4-8
2008-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-7	1503.97	1332.00	77.35%	22.17%	+22.19	5-8
2008-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-21	1526.16	1281.70	75.66%	23.86%	+4.59	6-8
2008-12-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-24	1530.75	1566.44	38.43%	61.09%	+48.36	7-8
2008-12-28	Denver Broncos	W 52-21	1579.11	1418.33	76.22%	23.30%	+24.99	8-8
2008-09-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-23	1417.05	1491.20	45.51%	54.01%	-27.66	0-1
2008-09-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-30	1389.39	1488.27	30.26%	69.27%	+23.03	1-1
2008-09-21	Detroit Lions	W 31-13	1412.42	1384.43	60.04%	39.48%	+32.21	2-1
2008-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1444.63	1477.48	38.82%	60.71%	-27.93	2-2
2008-10-05	New England Patriots	L 21-30	1416.70	1577.64	33.63%	65.89%	-19.42	2-3
2008-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 26-40	1397.28	1536.85	36.43%	63.09%	-26.22	2-4
2008-10-19	@ New York Giants	L 17-29	1371.06	1589.05	17.93%	81.59%	-11.97	2-5
2008-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 13-34	1359.09	1416.28	47.94%	51.58%	-42.22	2-6
2008-11-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-29	1316.87	1565.85	15.46%	84.07%	-6.66	2-7
2008-11-16	St. Louis Rams	W 35-16	1310.21	1329.60	53.37%	46.15%	+38.66	3-7
2008-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-35	1348.87	1550.14	19.40%	80.13%	-13.47	3-8
2008-11-30	@ Buffalo Bills	W 10-3	1335.40	1476.16	25.42%	74.10%	+37.63	4-8
2008-12-07	New York Jets	W 24-14	1373.03	1574.80	28.61%	70.92%	+43.05	5-8
2008-12-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-14	1416.08	1516.49	30.07%	69.45%	-12.94	5-9
2008-12-21	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-16	1403.14	1228.60	67.61%	31.91%	+6.14	6-9
2008-12-28	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1409.28	1496.27	43.69%	55.84%	+18.57	7-9
2008-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-34	1539.10	1464.83	54.03%	45.49%	-50.83	0-1
2008-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 30-33	1488.27	1389.39	69.27%	30.26%	-23.03	0-2
2008-09-21	St. Louis Rams	W 37-13	1465.24	1358.90	70.17%	29.36%	+27.69	1-2
2008-10-05	@ New York Giants	L 6-44	1492.93	1618.73	27.09%	72.43%	-32.16	1-3
2008-10-12	Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1460.77	1514.44	48.45%	51.07%	-29.43	1-4
2008-10-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1431.34	1578.59	24.72%	74.80%	-15.06	1-5
2008-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-13	1416.28	1359.09	51.58%	47.94%	+42.22	2-5
2008-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-26	1458.50	1583.62	38.38%	61.14%	-32.18	2-6
2008-11-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-21	1426.32	1495.77	33.95%	65.58%	-9.24	2-7
2008-11-16	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-26	1417.08	1572.51	34.35%	65.18%	-16.18	2-8
2008-11-23	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1400.90	1528.40	38.06%	61.47%	-12.68	2-9
2008-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-34	1388.22	1563.61	21.83%	77.69%	-21.03	2-10
2008-12-07	New England Patriots	L 21-24	1367.19	1572.00	28.25%	71.27%	-9.42	2-11
2008-12-14	@ St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1357.77	1241.80	59.89%	39.63%	+13.20	3-11
2008-12-21	New York Jets	W 13-3	1370.97	1542.09	32.34%	67.18%	+40.79	4-11
2008-12-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-34	1411.76	1456.49	37.21%	62.32%	-8.60	4-12
2008-09-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-38	1421.44	1536.91	28.28%	71.24%	-32.20	0-1
2008-09-14	New York Giants	L 13-41	1389.24	1581.13	29.78%	69.74%	-30.34	0-2
2008-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-37	1358.90	1465.24	29.36%	70.17%	-27.68	0-3
2008-09-28	Buffalo Bills	L 14-31	1331.22	1543.83	27.35%	72.18%	-21.71	0-4
2008-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-17	1309.51	1595.75	12.86%	86.67%	+23.53	1-4
2008-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-14	1333.04	1604.05	21.20%	78.33%	+67.25	2-4
2008-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 16-23	1400.29	1593.69	20.11%	79.41%	-10.25	2-5
2008-11-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-34	1390.04	1534.27	35.81%	63.71%	-31.57	2-6
2008-11-09	@ New York Jets	L 3-47	1358.47	1526.23	22.59%	76.93%	-28.87	2-7
2008-11-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-35	1329.60	1310.21	46.15%	53.37%	-38.66	2-8
2008-11-23	Chicago Bears	L 3-27	1290.94	1513.52	26.22%	73.30%	-24.73	2-9
2008-11-30	Miami Dolphins	L 12-16	1266.21	1471.03	28.25%	71.28%	-10.88	2-10
2008-12-07	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-34	1255.33	1519.84	14.32%	85.20%	-13.53	2-11
2008-12-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1241.80	1357.77	39.63%	59.89%	-13.20	2-12
2008-12-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-17	1228.60	1403.14	31.91%	67.61%	-6.14	2-13
2008-12-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-31	1222.46	1592.03	8.37%	91.16%	-3.23	2-14
2008-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1495.78	1488.95	44.36%	55.16%	-17.05	0-1
2008-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-9	1478.73	1442.07	61.23%	38.30%	+28.52	1-1
2008-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1507.25	1547.81	37.77%	61.75%	+20.54	2-1
2008-09-28	Green Bay Packers	W 30-21	1527.79	1566.51	50.60%	48.92%	+28.20	3-1
2008-10-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1555.99	1491.02	52.70%	46.83%	-17.53	3-2
2008-10-12	Carolina Panthers	W 27-3	1538.46	1532.92	56.91%	42.61%	+40.13	4-2
2008-10-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1578.59	1431.34	74.80%	24.72%	+15.05	5-2
2008-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-13	1593.64	1536.80	51.53%	47.99%	-19.80	5-3
2008-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-27	1573.84	1320.05	76.63%	22.90%	+7.64	6-3
2008-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-13	1581.48	1527.17	63.60%	35.93%	+16.93	7-3
2008-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-20	1598.41	1254.74	84.48%	15.04%	+12.30	8-3
2008-11-30	New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1610.71	1546.09	64.95%	34.57%	+11.52	9-3
2008-12-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 23-38	1622.23	1555.44	52.96%	46.56%	-39.39	9-4
2008-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1582.84	1541.68	49.27%	50.25%	-16.40	9-5
2008-12-21	San Diego Chargers	L 24-41	1566.44	1530.75	61.09%	38.43%	-48.36	9-6
2008-12-28	Oakland Raiders	L 24-31	1518.08	1337.12	78.23%	21.29%	-39.74	9-7
2008-09-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-10	1493.78	1560.78	46.54%	52.99%	+26.92	1-0
2008-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1520.70	1474.66	49.98%	49.55%	+39.25	2-0
2008-09-21	Houston Texans	W 31-12	1559.95	1491.61	65.43%	34.09%	+28.59	3-0
2008-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1588.54	1512.55	66.42%	33.11%	+22.97	4-0
2008-10-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 13-10	1611.51	1489.23	60.75%	38.77%	+12.91	5-0
2008-10-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-10	1624.42	1348.90	78.76%	20.76%	+19.60	6-0
2008-10-27	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-21	1644.02	1550.15	68.66%	30.87%	+18.79	7-0
2008-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 19-16	1662.81	1587.26	66.36%	33.16%	+11.05	8-0
2008-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1673.86	1583.36	56.33%	43.19%	+21.97	9-0
2008-11-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-14	1695.83	1523.88	67.29%	32.24%	+19.61	10-0
2008-11-23	New York Jets	L 13-34	1715.44	1575.99	73.96%	25.56%	-65.06	10-1
2008-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 47-10	1650.38	1242.44	88.63%	10.90%	+12.78	11-1
2008-12-07	Cleveland Browns	W 28-9	1663.16	1433.02	82.60%	16.93%	+14.22	12-1
2008-12-14	@ Houston Texans	L 12-13	1677.38	1502.28	67.68%	31.84%	-12.99	12-2
2008-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1664.39	1718.73	48.35%	51.17%	+40.53	13-2
2008-12-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 0-23	1704.92	1647.65	51.59%	47.93%	-15.84	13-3
2008-09-04	@ New York Giants	L 7-16	1532.82	1558.14	39.85%	59.67%	-22.99	0-1
2008-09-14	New Orleans Saints	W 29-24	1509.83	1506.00	56.67%	42.85%	+18.42	1-1
2008-09-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-17	1528.25	1542.56	54.10%	45.42%	+23.10	2-1
2008-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 26-24	1551.35	1640.07	31.50%	68.02%	+18.47	3-1
2008-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1569.82	1562.78	44.39%	55.14%	+25.93	4-1
2008-10-12	St. Louis Rams	L 17-19	1595.75	1309.51	86.67%	12.86%	-23.53	4-2
2008-10-19	Cleveland Browns	W 14-11	1572.22	1516.28	63.81%	35.71%	+11.90	5-2
2008-10-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 25-17	1584.12	1303.42	79.25%	20.28%	+11.05	6-2
2008-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-23	1595.17	1599.75	55.48%	44.04%	-43.93	6-3
2008-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-14	1551.24	1527.30	59.48%	40.04%	-22.84	6-4
2008-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1528.40	1400.90	61.47%	38.06%	+12.67	7-4
2008-11-30	New York Giants	L 7-23	1541.07	1730.59	30.07%	69.46%	-23.14	7-5
2008-12-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1517.93	1635.95	27.98%	71.54%	-20.16	7-6
2008-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1497.77	1291.61	71.43%	28.09%	-36.28	7-7
2008-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-3	1461.49	1642.96	31.05%	68.47%	+34.78	8-7
2008-12-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-27	1496.27	1409.28	55.84%	43.69%	-18.57	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2009-01-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1465.09	1595.26	37.92%	62.08%	+29.07	1-0
2009-01-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-13	1494.16	1615.40	27.80%	72.20%	+61.74	2-0
2009-01-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-25	1555.90	1725.37	32.76%	67.24%	+34.01	3-0
2009-02-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-27	1589.91	1732.11	30.61%	69.39%	-11.70	3-1
2009-01-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-30	1595.26	1465.09	62.08%	37.92%	-29.08	0-1
2009-01-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-9	1680.25	1566.81	59.79%	40.21%	+32.62	1-0
2009-01-10	@ Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1712.87	1689.08	47.02%	52.98%	+17.54	2-0
2009-01-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-23	1730.41	1705.00	47.25%	52.75%	-27.10	2-1
2009-01-10	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-33	1615.40	1494.16	72.20%	27.80%	-61.74	0-1
2009-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1663.49	1604.10	52.14%	47.86%	-24.42	0-1
2009-01-04	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-27	1566.81	1680.25	40.21%	59.79%	-32.62	0-1
2009-01-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-26	1607.05	1655.24	49.48%	50.52%	-32.76	0-1
2009-01-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 11-23	1688.27	1688.01	56.41%	43.59%	-37.37	0-1
2009-01-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 26-14	1655.24	1607.05	50.52%	49.48%	+32.77	1-0
2009-01-11	@ New York Giants	W 23-11	1688.01	1688.27	43.59%	56.41%	+37.36	2-0
2009-01-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 25-32	1725.37	1555.90	67.24%	32.76%	-34.02	2-1
2009-01-11	San Diego Chargers	W 35-24	1682.01	1628.52	63.75%	36.25%	+22.99	1-0
2009-01-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-14	1705.00	1730.41	52.75%	47.25%	+27.11	2-0
2009-02-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-23	1732.11	1589.91	69.39%	30.61%	+11.70	3-0
2009-01-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1604.10	1663.49	47.86%	52.14%	+24.42	1-0
2009-01-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-35	1628.52	1682.01	36.25%	63.75%	-22.99	1-1
2009-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-13	1689.08	1712.87	52.98%	47.02%	-17.55	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2008-09-21	12.36%	Miami Dolphins	1367.33	38	@ New England Patriots	1661.32	13
2	2008-10-12	12.86%	St. Louis Rams	1309.51	19	@ Washington Redskins	1595.75	17
3	2008-11-30	15.84%	Denver Broncos	1397.08	34	@ New York Jets	1641.05	17
4	2008-10-19	21.20%	@ St. Louis Rams	1333.04	34	Dallas Cowboys	1604.05	14
5	2008-12-28	21.29%	Oakland Raiders	1337.12	31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1518.08	24
6	2008-11-23	22.99%	Oakland Raiders	1300.57	31	@ Denver Broncos	1464.41	10
7	2008-12-07	23.08%	Philadelphia Eagles	1590.81	20	@ New York Giants	1753.74	14
8	2008-11-30	25.42%	San Francisco 49ers	1335.40	10	@ Buffalo Bills	1476.16	3
9	2008-11-23	25.56%	New York Jets	1575.99	34	@ Tennessee Titans	1715.44	13
10	2008-12-21	25.96%	@ Oakland Raiders	1290.29	27	Houston Texans	1515.27	16
11	2008-09-28	27.03%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1327.69	33	Denver Broncos	1543.08	19
12	2008-09-07	27.27%	Carolina Panthers	1461.90	26	@ San Diego Chargers	1586.13	24
13	2008-10-05	27.71%	Atlanta Falcons	1417.97	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1538.31	24
14	2009-01-10 *	27.80%	Arizona Cardinals	1494.16	33	@ Carolina Panthers	1615.40	13
15	2008-12-14	28.09%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1291.61	20	Washington Redskins	1497.77	13
16	2008-11-02	28.29%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1312.72	21	Jacksonville Jaguars	1517.19	19
17	2008-12-07	28.61%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1373.03	24	New York Jets	1574.80	14
18	2008-11-30	28.84%	Kansas City Chiefs	1257.19	20	@ Oakland Raiders	1367.90	13
19	2008-10-13	29.24%	@ Cleveland Browns	1454.45	35	New York Giants	1650.88	14
20	2008-09-14	30.26%	San Francisco 49ers	1389.39	33	@ Seattle Seahawks	1488.27	30
21	2008-11-09	30.80%	Indianapolis Colts	1549.25	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1643.68	20
22	2008-12-21	31.05%	@ Washington Redskins	1461.49	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1642.96	3
23	2008-09-28	31.50%	Washington Redskins	1551.35	26	@ Dallas Cowboys	1640.07	24
24	2008-12-14	31.84%	@ Houston Texans	1502.28	13	Tennessee Titans	1677.38	12
25	2008-11-06	32.01%	Denver Broncos	1413.00	34	@ Cleveland Browns	1497.66	30

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2008-09-21	83.68	Miami Dolphins	38	1367.33	12.36%	@ New England Patriots	13	1661.32	87.16%
2	2008-11-23	67.33	Oakland Raiders	31	1300.57	22.99%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1464.41	76.54%
3	2008-10-19	67.25	@ St. Louis Rams	34	1333.04	21.20%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1604.05	78.33%
4	2008-11-30	66.25	Denver Broncos	34	1397.08	15.84%	@ New York Jets	17	1641.05	83.69%
5	2008-11-23	65.06	New York Jets	34	1575.99	25.56%	@ Tennessee Titans	13	1715.44	73.96%
6	2008-10-13	61.83	@ Cleveland Browns	35	1454.45	29.24%	New York Giants	14	1650.88	70.29%
7	2009-01-10 *	61.74	Arizona Cardinals	33	1494.16	27.80%	@ Carolina Panthers	13	1615.40	72.20%
8	2008-11-24	54.77	@ New Orleans Saints	51	1491.32	38.70%	Green Bay Packers	29	1614.12	60.83%
9	2008-10-05	53.59	@ Arizona Cardinals	41	1470.60	42.56%	Buffalo Bills	17	1565.54	56.96%
10	2008-09-28	52.07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	33	1327.69	27.03%	Denver Broncos	19	1543.08	72.49%
11	2008-09-07	51.57	Chicago Bears	29	1514.71	32.37%	@ Indianapolis Colts	13	1596.53	67.16%
12	2008-09-08	51.23	Denver Broncos	41	1472.24	48.20%	@ Oakland Raiders	14	1438.58	51.33%
13	2008-09-07	50.83	@ Buffalo Bills	34	1464.83	45.49%	Seattle Seahawks	10	1539.10	54.03%
14	2008-11-30	50.15	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	1634.04	45.08%	@ New England Patriots	10	1622.15	54.44%
15	2008-09-28	48.87	@ New York Jets	56	1434.64	43.99%	Arizona Cardinals	35	1519.46	55.53%
16	2008-11-23	48.63	@ Baltimore Ravens	36	1566.53	52.53%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1591.80	46.99%
17	2008-12-21	48.36	San Diego Chargers	41	1530.75	38.43%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	1566.44	61.09%
18	2008-11-16	47.88	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1566.25	56.82%	Chicago Bears	3	1561.40	42.71%
19	2008-11-27	47.65	@ Philadelphia Eagles	48	1543.17	52.67%	Arizona Cardinals	20	1567.49	46.86%
20	2008-12-21	47.59	Cincinnati Bengals	14	1327.89	33.27%	@ Cleveland Browns	0	1402.60	66.25%
21	2008-12-28	47.06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	44	1608.18	59.83%	Dallas Cowboys	6	1581.72	39.69%
22	2008-12-21	46.84	@ Oakland Raiders	27	1290.29	25.96%	Houston Texans	16	1515.27	73.57%
23	2008-11-09	45.10	Baltimore Ravens	41	1548.57	55.19%	@ Houston Texans	13	1466.14	44.33%
24	2008-11-23	45.05	Minnesota Vikings	30	1510.24	44.24%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	12	1504.26	55.29%
25	2008-11-23	44.25	@ Atlanta Falcons	45	1489.31	43.63%	Carolina Panthers	28	1576.69	55.89%